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Tag: Reserve Bank of India

  • RBI imposes penalty on Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services

    RBI imposes penalty on Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services

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    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has imposed a monetary penalty of ₹6.77 crore on Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited for non-compliance with the “Non-Banking Financial Company-Systemically Important Non-Deposit taking Company and Deposit taking Company (Reserve Bank) Directions, 2016”.

    The statutory inspection of the company was conducted by RBI with reference to its financial position as on March 31, 2019 and March 31, 2020.

    Also read: RBI needn’t sneeze if the Fed is down with flu

    According to the RBI, an examination of the risk assessment report, inspection reports and all related correspondence has revealed non-compliance by the company with the RBI directions on fair practices related to disclosure of annualised rate of interest charged on loans to the borrowers at the time of sanction and failure to give notice of change in terms and conditions of loan to its borrowers.

    After considering the company’s reply to a notice on this matter, oral submissions made during the personal hearing and on examination of additional submissions made by it, RBI has concluded that there was non-compliance and, thus, imposed monetary penalty

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  • Banks’ demand deposits surged by ₹79,993 cr in January 27th fortnight

    Banks’ demand deposits surged by ₹79,993 cr in January 27th fortnight

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    Bank deposits and advances increased in the reporting fortnight ended January 27th after declining in the preceding fortnight, according to Reserve Bank of India data.

    Deposits of all scheduled banks increased by ₹43,718 crore in the reporting fortnight against a decline of ₹56,590 crore in the preceding fortnight ended January 13th, according to RBI’s Scheduled Banks’ Statement of Position in India.

    Within the incremental growth in deposits in the reporting fortnight, demand deposits surged by ₹79,993 crore while time deposits declined by ₹36,275 crore.

    Referring to the increase in demand deposits at a time when Banks’ have increased term/time deposit rates to attract deposits, Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda, said it could be due to maturing short-term bulk deposits being temporarily parked in demand deposits.

    Credit of all scheduled banks increased by ₹67,502 crore in the reporting fortnight against a decline of ₹19,685.5 crore in the preceding fortnight ended January 13th.

    Overall, in the December 30, 2022, to January 27, 2023 period, bank deposits declined by ₹12,814 crore while credit increased by ₹44,878 crore.

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    BL Mumbai Bureau

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  • How is RBI’s digital rupee different from cryptocurrency?

    How is RBI’s digital rupee different from cryptocurrency?

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    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) made the announcement to launch the first pilot for the digital rupee today on December 1. With the launch, India has joined a handful of nations to launch its own blockchain currency that can underscore India’s pre-eminence in digitalised finance. To give some perspective, not even the United States has launched their Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) yet. 

    One of the most common questions asked is how digital rupee going to be similar to cryptocurrency. Well, the similarity between CBDC and cryptocurrency ends at the fact that they both have blockchain as the underlying technology. Therefore, with blockchain as a base, all transactions can be tracked on the ledger with no ability to modify the past – leading to transparency and easy bookkeeping. Hence, CBDC will be a technology-led currency of the RBI with control on the supply as well as usage side. It won’t be decentralized the way cryptocurrencies are. 

    The one stark difference between the two is while there is no regulator for cryptocurrency, digital rupee is a legal tender with RBI as the regulator. Here transactions may be a little more anonymous than other digital transactions, as money moves from wallet to wallet after a one-time deduction from the bank account, but still they can be tracked with RBI as the regulator. 

    “Since CBDC will be issued by the Central Bank like a digital form of currency notes and distributed by banks( distribution nodes) underline technology ( blockchain like tech stack) will record and maintain a transaction trail like the way it is done in banks core system. In case of CBDC transaction trail right from the issuance will be available within CBDC nodes, since the distribution of the CBDC will be by REs only, it would be offered to Kyced users in some cases may be non-Kyced users,” says Vishwas Patel, Director, Infibeam Avenues Ltd and Chairman, Payments Council Of India.

    Patel adds, “It’s currency in digital token form on a blockchain. With a retail CBDC, you should be able to transact without any bank involved (like physical cash). It will have the same denominations like physical cash. It’s quite different from UPI which is an actual debit from your bank account. CBDC is a currency, a legal tender guaranteed by RBI.”

    Moreover, unlike cryptocurrency, you will be able to make payments and transact with digital rupee through a digital wallet offered by the participating banks and stored on mobile phones. “A successful pilot and by extension, a full rollout of the digital rupee is expected to boost the reach of payment and financial needs of a wider category of users while ensuring transparency and low operational cost, and in this regard, it is encouraging to witness RBI’s support for innovation in creating a world-class, future-ready digital ecosystem,” says  Jaya Vaidhyanathan, CEO, BCT Digital.

    Finally, digital rupee is the electronic form of cash, which will be used for buying and selling goods and services. Unlike cryptos you cannot treat it as an asset class and invest in it. 

    Also Read: Digital Rupee pilot today: Features, where and how it will be rolled out; all you need to know

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  • Digital Rupee coming on Dec 1: How will it work and what does it mean for you?

    Digital Rupee coming on Dec 1: How will it work and what does it mean for you?

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    After months of anticipation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday said that it would launch its first pilot for retail digital Rupee, or e₹-R, on December 1. The central bank-backed Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), which is similar to cryptocurrency to some extent, will be for retail users.  

    There has been a lot of buzz around the concept of cryptocurrencies, CBDC, and digital currencies. A central bank digital currency can be described as the digital form of a country’s fiat currency, whereas a cryptocurrency is also a digital currency, which is an alternative form of payment with unique encryption algorithms. In layman’s terms, a CBDC is simply digital fiat, whereas cryptocurrencies are digital assets on a decentralised network.   

    What is Digital Rupee or e₹-R? 

    The Reserve Bank of India has defined the e-Rupee as a form of digital token that represents legal tender. It is the same as a fiat currency and is exchangeable one-to-one with the fiat currency, and unlike cryptocurrencies, the digital Rupee is issued in the same denominations as paper currency and coins. 

    How will it work? 

    The e₹-R, which will be released on December 1, will be a digital token that represents legal tender. It will be issued in the same denominations as paper currency and coins and will be distributed through intermediaries, here it is banks. 

    2. As per the central bank, users will be able to transact with e₹-R through a digital wallet offered by the participating banks and stored on mobile phones and devices. 

    3. The transactions in digital Rupee can take place between Person to Person (P2P) and Person to Merchant (P2M), as per RBI’s statement. 

    4. Payments to merchants can be made using QR codes displayed at merchant locations, just like customers do for Paytm or Google Pay. “The e₹-R would offer features of physical cash like trust, safety, and settlement finality. As in the case of cash, it will not earn any interest and can be converted to other forms of money, like deposits with banks,” the RBI said. 

    5. The pilot will kickstart in four banks – State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Yes Bank and IDFC First Bank – in four cities, including Mumbai, New Delhi, Bengaluru and Bhubaneswar.  

    6. Four other banks – Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India, HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank – will join this pilot eventually and it would also be extended to other cities such as Ahmedabad, Gangtok, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Indore, Kochi, Lucknow, Patna, and Shimla. 

    “The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) aims to fulfill the promise of affordable, safer, and easier payments for all. Since it provides a regulated alternative to cryptocurrencies in the market, the CBDC would lead to more robust and reliable payments, lowering the dependency on cash. The underpinning technology would make transaction costs low. Being interoperable with other payment systems, it will complement existing techniques like UPI, thus completing the mobile payments ecosystem,” said Jaya Vaidhyanathan, CEO, BCT Digital.  

    What’s expected? 

    As per sector experts, India’s CBDC initiative is very much in line with its recent digitalisation efforts worldwide. India is one of the few countries that have launched its own CBDC. Globally, many nations, such as China, Ghana, Jamaica, and some European countries are exploring their CBDC products. Some have even launched their digital currencies. There are nine countries that have fully launched their CBDCs. Eight of the nine countries are located in the Caribbean. The Sand Dollar of the Bahamas was the first CBDC of the world, which was launched in 2019. 

    “The digital rupee (e₹-R) will provide better security, traceability, and accountability for the movement of money through the world’s 5th largest economy. Instead of a distributed ledger, the e ₹-R will get regulated by the RBI, providing legal cover and stability to the digital currency. Since the digital asset is backed by a sovereign institution and can get tracked, it should reduce the excessive fraud inflicted upon UPI users because these funds become untraceable once they are taken out of the banking system,” said Anirudh A. Damani, Founder of Artha Group. 

    The retail digital currency, which will be launched on December 1, will be distributed through a two-tier model. The central bank will first issue to it the chosen banks. The banks will further distribute currency into the hands of consumers. “The introduction of the Digital Rupee in India is anticipated to improve our currency management system’s efficiency, transparency, systemic resilience, and governance. One of the main advantages of the change is that transactions can be completed without even opening a bank account. The government would be able to quickly view all transactions occurring within authorized networks, facilitate real-time account settlements, and maintain ledgers once the digital rupee is released,” said Rajeev Yadav, MD & CEO, Fincare Small Finance Bank. 

    “CBDC-backed currencies are a logical next step in the journey of digital currencies. It eliminates several of the inefficiencies which mar cryptocurrencies by providing stability and comfort with the backing of the central bank (RBI). CBDC will further be a positive step towards the adoption of blockchain for financial services, and will align India with the world that is rapidly progressing towards adoption of digital currencies,” said Deepak Kothari, Co-founder and COO, ftcash. 

    Also read: RBI Guv Shaktikanta Das lauds the launch of digital Rupee, calls it is ‘landmark’

     

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  • GDP growth Q2 FY23: How Indian economy is likely to perform; what to expect

    GDP growth Q2 FY23: How Indian economy is likely to perform; what to expect

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    GDP data for Q2: India’s gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q2 (July-September) 2022-23 is scheduled to be out on Wednesday. Analysts and economists have predicted that the GDP growth would be in the range of 5.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent in the second quarter, which will be lower than Q1 numbers. The GDP growth was 13.5 per cent in Q1 (April-June period) of the current fiscal (2022-23).  

    Analysts and experts have revised the GDP Q2 expectations due to global economic headwinds, geopolitical tensions, a stronger dollar, and tough financial conditions in many countries.  

    Let’s take a look at what experts predicted for Q2 FY23:  

    SBI Research 

    SBI Research said that India’s GDP growth for the second quarter would be at 5.8 per cent, down 30 basis points from average estimates, mainly due to the weak manufacturing sector with the steep margin compression. 

    In a report released on Monday, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India, said that corporate results, operating profit of companies, excluding the banking and financial sector, slipped by 14 per cent in Q2 FY23 as against 35 per cent growth in last year same quarter (Q2 FY22). The top line reported a healthy growth. Net sales grew by 28 per cent, while bottom-line (profit) was down by around 23 per cent from the year-ago period. 

    He noted that there are several indicators that point out that the economy has been making resilient progress since Q2 despite global economic challenges, high inflation, recession fears, and weakening world trade. 

    Reserve Bank of India 

    The Reserve Bank of India has predicted that India’s GDP would grow 6.3 per cent in the April-September 2022 quarter. While hiking the repo rate in September, Governor Shaktikanta Das pointed that the economy is facing headwinds due to geopolitical tensions, tightening global financial conditions and decline in demand and global trade which can lead to degrowth. 

    Watch: India’s GDP Q2 data to be out today: What to expect?

    S&P Global Ratings  

    S&P Global Ratings has cut India’s GDP Q2 growth forecast to 7 per cent. But it noted that India’s economy and domestic demand will be less impacted by the global slowdown or recession fears in the western countries. 

    S&P had in September projected the Indian economy to grow 7.3 per cent in 2022-23 and 6.5 per cent in next fiscal year (2023-24). 

    Crisil 

    Rating agency CRISIL revised down its forecast for GDP growth to 7 per cent for FY2023 from 7.3 per cent, after taking into account the global slowdown, which has started to impact exports and industrial activity. This will test the resilience of domestic demand. 

    The rating agency expects India’s GDP to grow at 7 per cent in the Q2 FY23. Chief economist D K Joshi noted that the domestic demand is still supportive, mostly due to government capex, relatively accommodative financial conditions, and overall normal monsoons for the fourth time in a row. 

    ICRA  

    In its report, ICRA has said GDP growth will be around 8 per cent in Q2 as compared to 3.8 per cent seen in the previous quarter. The agency estimates the sectoral growth in Q2 to be driven by the services sector (9.4 per cent), with a subdued trend foreseen for the industry (2 per cent), and agriculture, forestry, and fishing (2.5 per cent). 

    ICRA’s Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that a 6.5 per cent growth in Q2 of the current fiscal is expected, which is nearly half of the year-ago quarter when the economy had clipped at 12.7 per cent. 

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  • India’s economy likely slowed to annual 6.2% in July-Sept

    India’s economy likely slowed to annual 6.2% in July-Sept

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    The Indian economy likely returned to a more normal 6.2% annual growth rate in July-September after double-digit expansion in the previous quarter, but weaker exports and investment will curb future activity, a Reuters poll showed.

    In April-June, Asia’s third-largest economy showed explosive growth of 13.5% from a year earlier thanks mainly to the corresponding period in 2021 having been depressed by pandemic-control restrictions.

    But with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) now raising interest rates to tamp inflation running above its target range of 2% to 6% target, the economy is set to slow further.

    The 6.2% annual growth forecast for latest quarter in a Nov. 22-28 Reuters poll of 43 economists was a tad lower than the RBI’s 6.3% view. Forecasts ranged between 3.7% and 6.5%.

    “The exceptionally favourable base of the April-June ’22 quarter is behind us, which will result in a normalization of the year-on-year real GDP growth rate from July-Sept ’22 onward and also make it easier to gauge the true underlying economic momentum,” said Kaushik Das, India and South Asia chief economist at Deutsche Bank.

    Although business surveys indicated weakening economic activity in most major economies, where central banks are responding to soaring inflation with higher interest rates, business sentiment has remained relatively strong in India.

    Still, industrial production increased at an annual pace of only 1.5% on average last quarter, its weakest in two years, pointing towards a significant slowdown in manufacturing activity, a key driver of growth.

    “GDP is expected to increase sequentially, led by continued recovery in services. Mining and manufacturing are expected to be a drag. On the demand side, lower global growth hit exports in Q2 (July-September),” said Sakshi Gupta, principal India economist at HDFC Bank, adding there were signs that consumption was uneven.

    The finance ministry said on Nov. 24 a global slowdown might dampen the country’s export businesses outlook. Meanwhile, the RBI raised its key policy interest rate to 5.9% from 4.0% in May and is widely expected to add another 60 basis points by the end of March.

    “Between December and February, the headwinds to growth may become more evident,” said Deutsche Bank’s Das.
     

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  • India Inc urges RBI to moderate pace of interest rates hikes

    India Inc urges RBI to moderate pace of interest rates hikes

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    The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has urged the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to moderate monetary tightening from the earlier 50 basis points, especially given the headwinds to domestic growth emanating from the global uncertainties.

    This has been conveyed by CII to the central bank as part of its expectations for the upcoming monetary policy.

    The domestic demand has been recovering as mirrored by the performance of host of high-frequency indicators, however, the prevailing global policy crisis is likely to impinge on India’s growth prospects too, said the CII in its submissions to RBI.

    While CII is in cognisance of the fact that RBI’s interest rate hikes of 190 basis points so far this fiscal have been warranted to tame inflationary pressures, the corporate sector has now started to feel its adverse impact, the industry body said.

    CII’s analysis of results for nearly 2,000 companies in the second quarter (July-Sept 2022) shows that both the top-line and bottom line has moderated on sequential and annual basis. Thus, moderation in pace of monetary tightening is the need of the hour.

    However, given the sticky core inflation at around the 6 percent mark, the RBI could consider hiking the key interest rates by an additional 25 to 35 basis points to tame inflation, CII has suggested.

    Notwithstanding the recent moderation in October 2022, the headline print continues to remain outside RBI’s target range for ten consecutive months. 

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    Further, with a yawning gap existing between credit and deposit growth, an additional rate hike will incentivise savers, thus providing an impetus to deposit growth and help narrow the Credit-Deposit wedge.  

    Further, with rising global risk aversion adversely impacting the foreign capital inflows, CII stated that it poses challenges for the financing of the country’s current account deficit. 

    “In fact, we need to keep a watch on capital flows across all the three buckets namely – foreign direct investment (FDI), NRI flows and foreign portfolio flows (FPI). High focus only on FPI numbers may not always provide a complete picture,” the CII said.

    “The incipient signs of domestic recovery need to be preserved to help accelerate movement towards a normalised growth scenario. As in the past, the RBI should use all the weapons in its arsenal to ensure that while through its actions inflationary expectations are well anchored, it should in no way muzzle the growth impulses”.

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    KR Srivats

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  • Economy resilient, but still sensitive to global headwinds, says RBI in latest bulletin

    Economy resilient, but still sensitive to global headwinds, says RBI in latest bulletin

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    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday released the November 2022 issue of its monthly bulletin on state of the economy and said headline inflation is beginning to show signs of easing.

    With headline inflation beginning to show signs of easing, the domestic macroeconomic outlook appears to be resilient though it is still sensitive to global headwinds, the bulletin said on Friday.

    The article published in the latest RBI bulletin also said the outlook for the global economy remains clouded with downside risks. Global financial conditions have been tightening and deteriorating market liquidity is amplifying financial price movements.

    Markets are now pricing in moderate increases in policy rates and risk-on appetite has returned. In India, supply responses in the economy are gaining strength, it noted.

    “With headline inflation beginning to show signs of easing, the domestic macroeconomic outlook can best be characterised as resilient but sensitive to formidable global headwinds,” the article said.

    Urban demand appears robust, while rural demand is muted but more recently picking up traction, it added.

    The article has been prepared by a team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra.

    The RBI, however, said the opinions expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the central bank.

    ALSO READ: RBI Governor tells PSU, private banks MD and CEOs to be watchful amid fears of global slowdown

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  • RBI’s 2013 playbook to rebuild FX reserves unlikely to work, say experts

    RBI’s 2013 playbook to rebuild FX reserves unlikely to work, say experts

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    The Reserve Bank of India’s 2013 playbook to buffer the domestic currency against steep declines and rebuild foreign exchange reserves is unlikely to prove fruitful in the current crisis as economic fundamentals are vastly different, analysts said.

    India’s forex reserves have tumbled about $110 billion from a peak of $642 billion in September last year, and though that is largely due to the fall in the value of holdings in dollars and other currencies, another significant reason is the central bank’s intervention in the currency market to protect the rupee.

    The local unit fell about 11% against the U.S. dollar in 2013, a slide it has already matched so far this year, with most market participants expecting further declines by the end of 2022.

    To defend the rupee, the Reserve Bank of India has dipped into its forex reserves. It has sold a net $43.15 billion worth of dollars since the start of 2022, including $4.25 billion this August, the latest available data released on Monday showed.

    “It would be important to rebuild FX reserves for sure. There will be urgency as fundamentals are also adverse,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.

    The RBI, in July, announced some measures to liberalise foreign exchange inflows, including giving foreign investors access to a larger portion of government debt and banks wider room to raise more deposits from non-residents. But these measures are unlikely to prove as effective right now as they had in 2013.

    Unprofitable Spreads

    Back in 2013, the RBI had offered to swap the U.S. dollars banks had raised via foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits or foreign currency funding for rupees at concessional rates.

    It swapped FCNR deposits, with a maturity of three years or more, at a fixed rate of 3.5% per year, which was about 3 percentage points less than market rates at the time, while it swapped foreign currency funding at 1 percentage point below market rates. 

    These two swap windows had brought in around $34 billion at a crucial time, with $26 billion via the FCNR route alone.

    But these methods are unlikely to be as fruitful now.

    “The FCNR deposits route might not be as effective this time around, including for reasons like a narrower US-IN rate spread and less aggressive rate hikes in this cycle versus back in 2013,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank.

    This time around, with India’s 3-year bond yields at 7.5% and U.S. yields at 4.5%, the 3% spread is unlikely to help investors make any profits on a fully hedged basis given the current hedging cost is about 6.5%-7%. Profits are unlikely even if the RBI offered a discount window, which it hasn’t so far.

    “On fully hedged basis, a similar level of subsidy will not be good enough. Either domestic rates have to go up tremendously or the RBI will have to increase the subsidy to make things work,” said Vivek Kumar, senior economist at QuantEco Research.

    Import Cover

    To add to the problems, India’s economic fundamentals too have weakened. The current account deficit has been widening and is expected to stay above 3% of gross domestic product for the current fiscal year, ending March 2023.

    With capital flows also volatile, economists expect the balance of payments to be negative, depleting reserves further.

    And while reserves at current levels are adequate to cover more than eight months of imports, analysts say a sustained depletion could cause some concern.

    “A fall below eight months of import cover (about $500 billion) could start catching the market’s attention if the current account deficit stays above 3% of GDP,” said QuantEco’s Kumar.

    “A panic situation prompting a forceful policy response could emerge if reserves touch six months of import cover, i.e., around $380 billion.”

    Possible Measures

    Analysts said while short-term fixes could provide intermittent relief, policymakers would need to continue focussing on strengthening structural macro buffers.

    Bank of Baroda’s Sabnavis suggested floating sovereign bonds, like the Resurgent India bonds (RIBs) India Millennium Deposit bonds (IMDs) in the past, to help boost forex reserves.

    “Such measures can directly bring in dollars,” he said.

    Sabnavis said the rupee could weaken further towards 82-83 levels in the near-term and fall to 84 if the dollar continues to strengthen. The local unit is currently at 82.28 per dollar.

    “Hard to really gauge the level, and expectations tend to be adaptive based on how RBI reacts.”

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  • ‘Rupee is not sliding, dollar is strengthening,’ says FM Nirmala Sitharaman

    ‘Rupee is not sliding, dollar is strengthening,’ says FM Nirmala Sitharaman

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    Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who has been speaking about India’s growth story and robust economy during her recent interactions, has said that in the current scenario, the Indian the rupee is not sliding, but the US dollar strengthening.  Replying to a question, Sitharaman said: “Dollar is strengthening incessantly. So obviously, all other currencies are performing against the strengthening dollar. I am not talking about technicalities but it is a matter of fact India’s rupee probably has withstood this dollar rate going up…I think the Indian rupee has performed much better than many other emerging market currencies.” 

    She said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was focused on ensuring that there isn’t too much volatility and was not intervening in the market to fix the value of the Indian currency. 

    Responding to questions asked by news agency ANI on measures being taken to tackle the slide, she said: “The efforts of RBI are more towards seeing that there is not too much volatility, it is not to intervene in the market to fix the value of the rupee. Containing the volatility is the only exercise RBI is involved in and I have said this before that rupee will find its level,” she said. 

    The depreciation of the rupee is a cause of concern, especially for a country that has significant imports, as per experts. On Friday, the rupee closed at 82.19 against the US dollar amid a firm greenback overseas and sliding crude oil prices. 

    At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 82.26 and witnessed a high of 82.12 and a low of 82.43 before settling at 82.19. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, advanced 0.56 per cent to 112.99. 

    As per experts, the latest round of depreciation is due to adverse global developments starting with the geopolitical tensions triggered by the Russian-Ukraine war. The war pushed up commodity prices, leading to a record surge in inflation in the developed world, which has resulted in steep rate hikes by the US Fed. This has resulted in a flight of capital back to the US, hence resulting in currency depreciation episodes. 

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