GDP data for Q2: India’s gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q2 (July-September) 2022-23 is scheduled to be out on Wednesday. Analysts and economists have predicted that the GDP growth would be in the range of 5.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent in the second quarter, which will be lower than Q1 numbers. The GDP growth was 13.5 per cent in Q1 (April-June period) of the current fiscal (2022-23).
Analysts and experts have revised the GDP Q2 expectations due to global economic headwinds, geopolitical tensions, a stronger dollar, and tough financial conditions in many countries.
Let’s take a look at what experts predicted for Q2 FY23:
SBI Research
SBI Research said that India’s GDP growth for the second quarter would be at 5.8 per cent, down 30 basis points from average estimates, mainly due to the weak manufacturing sector with the steep margin compression.
In a report released on Monday, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India, said that corporate results, operating profit of companies, excluding the banking and financial sector, slipped by 14 per cent in Q2 FY23 as against 35 per cent growth in last year same quarter (Q2 FY22). The top line reported a healthy growth. Net sales grew by 28 per cent, while bottom-line (profit) was down by around 23 per cent from the year-ago period.
He noted that there are several indicators that point out that the economy has been making resilient progress since Q2 despite global economic challenges, high inflation, recession fears, and weakening world trade.
Reserve Bank of India
The Reserve Bank of India has predicted that India’s GDP would grow 6.3 per cent in the April-September 2022 quarter. While hiking the repo rate in September, Governor Shaktikanta Das pointed that the economy is facing headwinds due to geopolitical tensions, tightening global financial conditions and decline in demand and global trade which can lead to degrowth.
Watch: India’s GDP Q2 data to be out today: What to expect?
S&P Global Ratings
S&P Global Ratings has cut India’s GDP Q2 growth forecast to 7 per cent. But it noted that India’s economy and domestic demand will be less impacted by the global slowdown or recession fears in the western countries.
S&P had in September projected the Indian economy to grow 7.3 per cent in 2022-23 and 6.5 per cent in next fiscal year (2023-24).
Crisil
Rating agency CRISIL revised down its forecast for GDP growth to 7 per cent for FY2023 from 7.3 per cent, after taking into account the global slowdown, which has started to impact exports and industrial activity. This will test the resilience of domestic demand.
The rating agency expects India’s GDP to grow at 7 per cent in the Q2 FY23. Chief economist D K Joshi noted that the domestic demand is still supportive, mostly due to government capex, relatively accommodative financial conditions, and overall normal monsoons for the fourth time in a row.
ICRA
In its report, ICRA has said GDP growth will be around 8 per cent in Q2 as compared to 3.8 per cent seen in the previous quarter. The agency estimates the sectoral growth in Q2 to be driven by the services sector (9.4 per cent), with a subdued trend foreseen for the industry (2 per cent), and agriculture, forestry, and fishing (2.5 per cent).
ICRA’s Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that a 6.5 per cent growth in Q2 of the current fiscal is expected, which is nearly half of the year-ago quarter when the economy had clipped at 12.7 per cent.
