Bitcoin has experienced a sharp price drop in recent days, but one well-followed crypto analyst remains undaunted. Popular chartist Egrag Crypto says Bitcoin is still in a bull market, even with the pullback. He believes what is happening now is only part of a larger repeating pattern that has played out since the end of 2022. According to him, this cycle is not over yet, and the market still has another strong upward move before an actual bear phase begins.
Bitcoin Holds Strong Above Key Levels
Egrag Crypto explains that Bitcoin follows a clear pattern that has been in place since December 2022. First, the price surges upward, then it retests support, bounces back, corrects slightly, and makes a new local high.
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Source: X
Right now, the most critical level to watch is $103,000. As long as Bitcoin does not fall below that level, Egrag says there is no real danger. Instead, he expects one more big pump to arrive before the cycle tops out. His personal target for this move is between $150,000 and $175,000. In his view, this would mark the last push of the current bull run before the market flips to its next bear phase.
Egrag stresses that corrections along the way are normal and should not cause panic. He believes traders often get caught up in short-term drops without realizing that they are only part of a larger trend. Looking at the bigger picture, it is clear that the Bitcoin bull market still has room to run.
Market Parallels With Gold Suggest Bull Run Is Intact
Egrag Crypto also draws a strong comparison between Bitcoin and gold. He points out that many analysts once thought gold had peaked at a technical target of $3,500. Instead, the price continued to rise due to what he calls a short squeeze. This sudden surge, he says, was meant to trap retail buyers into a “suckers rally.”
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He notes that gold demand is currently so high that even shop owners with decades of experience say they have never seen business like this. To Egrag, this kind of hype is usually a warning that the cycle is near its top. He expects gold to eventually fall by $600 to $1,000 once Russia and Ukraine restore peace, a move that he believes would once again confirm the cyclical nature of the market.
For Bitcoin, the same lesson applies. Despite loud voices calling the bull run over, Egrag insists that the cycle is still alive. He views the current downturn as merely a pause before another significant surge. He plans to invest around $30,000 in the following macro cycle and later rotate into strong altcoins. In his view, staying patient and respecting cycles is the most effective approach.
Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) told viewers late on September 25 that Bitcoin’s pullback is tracking a familiar seasonal and structural script—and that the market’s next major impulse hinges on a clearly defined support range. “Hold $107k to $98K,” he said, calling the zone the fulcrum for the bull cycle’s next leg. “That’s it. It’s that simple.”
Opening his stream amid a rush of bearish sentiment as BTC price dipped to $108,651, Kevin argued the drawdown should not surprise disciplined traders. He framed the current move in the context of months of caution dating back to early August, when he began highlighting weekly bearish divergences across Bitcoin, Ethereum and the total altcoin market (Total2), into what he described as four-plus-year resistance zones.
“Everyone thinks these symmetrical triangle patterns after a move higher are continuation patterns,” he said, “but in reality, in the crypto market, very, very rarely do these break out to the upside.” He pointed to a progression of smaller impulse highs since late 2023 and reiterated that despite sharp rallies in select altcoins, the majors failed to clear “any major resistance levels.”
Bitcoin Top In Until Proven Otherwise
The anchor of Kevin’s case is confluence on higher time frames. On Bitcoin’s weekly chart, he outlined rising price highs against falling momentum—“simple strength and momentum indicators,” not signals by themselves but context that “has been dwindling for a very long time.”
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Total2, he added, registered “a triple top on the weekly” beneath roughly $1.71–$1.74 trillion—“the all-be-all resistance level”—with weekly RSI and MACD rolling over. Stocks of momentum, in his read, are resetting precisely where they should amid historically thin late-summer liquidity. “Q3 is never a good quarter for crypto,” Kevin said. “August, September are terrible months. They always are.”
TOTAL2 market cap analysis | Source: X @Kev_Capital_TA
Against that backdrop, he argued that USDT dominance remains the most reliable inter-market compass. “USDT dominance is the greatest chart ever. There is no better chart,” he said, walking through a macro descending triangle with a flat-bottom support near 3.9–3.7% and repeated rallies to a falling trendline that have mapped crypto cycle lows and highs for two years.
Each approach to the flat bottom, he noted, has carved a W- or inverse-head-and-shoulders-style base in USDT.D while Bitcoin distributed near local tops; each rejection at the downtrend has coincided with crypto inflections. “You literally don’t need any chart in all of crypto,” he said. “All you need is Bitcoin and USDT dominance and you would have played this cycle absolutely perfectly.”
USDT dominance chart | Source: X @Kev_Capital_TA
From a tactical standpoint, Kevin flagged a three-month BTC liquidity “heat map” shelf near $106.8K and the 21-week EMA—the bull-market support band—near $109.2K as natural magnets, with the lower weekly Bollinger Band sitting around $101K.
He stressed he doesn’t want to see “Bitcoin lose 106.8K” if the cycle remains intact, though a wick into that area to “swipe the liquidity” would be consistent with prior resets. He framed $98K as the line that should not break decisively. “There’s a whole lot of support in that range,” he said. “I’d be pretty shocked if Bitcoin wasn’t able to bounce in there somewhere.”
All Eyes On Q4 Seasonality
Kevin tied structural signals to an explicit macro checklist, arguing that lasting cycle tops and bottoms align with fundamental catalysts rather than charts alone. He cited 2021’s inflation spike and the onset of the Fed’s hiking cycle as the driver of that cycle’s 55–60% drawdown, the 2017 CME Bitcoin futures launch as a blow-off top catalyst, and the FTX collapse as the final capitulation in 2022 amid weekly bullish divergence.
“There’s always a macro-related reason that correlates with the charts,” he said. By contrast, he sees no such cycle-ending macro trigger today: inflation gauges have been “very choppy” but contained; the Fed is widely expected to ease into year-end provided labor softens; and seasonality favors Q4.
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He underscored the near-term calendar—core PCE, CPI and labor data in the first half of October—as decisive for risk appetite. “Sometime in mid-October… we’ll start to have an idea of where this market is really going to go,” he said. “If we get to mid-October and Bitcoin’s holding key support… and we get good macroeconomic data, we get another rate cut… the probabilities favor that Bitcoin will [go higher]—and then you’re in Q4.”
Volatility positioning, he added, argues for a sharp directional move once the reset completes. On the weekly Bollinger Band Width, Kevin said BTC has printed record-low readings three times this cycle—each in Q3—and each episode began with a downside break of 18–29% before surging to fresh highs.
“There is a massive move coming for Bitcoin soon. It has not happened yet,” he said, noting spot volumes have declined since November while bands have tightened to historic extremes. A test of the lower weekly band near $101K “is possible,” but not required, in his view; the key is that the broader $107K–$98K corridor functions as a springboard.
Kevin was equally explicit about invalidation and upside triggers. He labeled $125K “a major top for now” and said the market needs weekly and monthly closes above that level to confirm trend continuation.
On dominance, he highlighted 59.0% and 60.28% as near-term resistance that could fuel a BTC-led phase if reclaimed; otherwise, he expects leadership to rotate back to altcoins once Bitcoin bases and USDT dominance prints a lower high. “Stop looking at the altcoins” until those inter-market signals flip, he advised, emphasizing patience, risk management and taking profits into resistance.
His bottom line combines restraint with opportunism. “Hold $107k to 98K,” he repeated. “Go into October. Get through the first couple of weeks of macroeconomic data… Bitcoin will inevitably find a low on the back of that data and then eventually go higher.” But he warned that if macro arrives benign and “Bitcoin is still deteriorating,” traders should be ready to reassess the cycle thesis. Until then, Kevin’s message remains unapologetically unglamorous: respect the seasonal chop, track the inter-market tells, and let the higher-time-frame levels do the talking. “Being right is the best pat on the back you can get,” he said. “Not just saying things that get you a lot of clicks.”
Crypto markets have recently faced renewed challenges, despite a brief resurgence following the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut that initially propelled Bitcoin (BTC) back toward the $120,000 mark.
This week, however, Bitcoin has dropped to the lower end of its established consolidation range, fluctuating between $110,000 and $115,000. Analysts from The Bull Theory have pinpointed several factors contributing to this downturn.
How Fed Policies And QT Are Impacting Crypto
One of the primary reasons for the current situation is the ongoing capital flow favoring traditional assets. In the wake of rate cuts, institutional investors tend to channel their funds into stocks and gold first, as these are considered high-liquidity assets with a proven track record.
In contrast, cryptocurrencies, particularly altcoins, often find themselves at the end of the liquidity pipeline. They typically see price increases only when risk appetite broadens significantly among investors.
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Additionally, liquidity remains tight in the crypto space, despite the Fed’s recent actions. While the central bank cut rates in September, other variables are restricting the flow of capital into cryptocurrencies.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is still being implemented, with the Fed actively reducing its balance sheet. Moreover, the US Treasury is absorbing liquidity through the replenishment of the Treasury General Account (TGA), and money market funds are currently holding over $7.7 trillion in cash that remains largely idle.
This lack of liquidity means that any spillover effect into the crypto market will be limited, resulting in a slower rotation of capital into digital assets.
Cyclical Trends Suggest Potential Rebound
The macroeconomic patterns observed in September 2024 are also reemerging. Last year, following a rate cut, Bitcoin surged past $60,000, while Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins enjoyed significant gains. However, this was followed by a sharp decline, with Bitcoin dropping 11% and Ethereum experiencing an even steeper fall.
In a similar vein, this September has seen Bitcoin hover around $112,000 after briefly touching $118,000, while Ethereum has slipped from $4,600 to approximately $4.1,00.
This cyclical pattern suggests that crypto may be primed for a rebound, but only after a period of consolidation and confirmation. Moreover, the impending expiry of options contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum is adding another layer of volatility to the market.
Stablecoin Movement And Institutional Inflows
Another factor impacting the market is the supply and velocity of stablecoins. While the total supply of stablecoins has surged from $204 billion in January to $308 billion in September—an all-time high—the velocity of these assets is not keeping pace.
The analysts have identified that much of this capital remains inactive, either sitting idle, bridged, or utilized off-exchange. Until stablecoin velocity increases, the price impact on cryptocurrencies is likely to remain subdued.
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Looking ahead, historical trends suggest that although crypto may be lagging in the short term, they often follow traditional assets with significant gains once the market stabilizes.
In the aftermath of all-time highs in equity markets, Bitcoin has previously averaged a 12% increase within 30 days and a remarkable 35% over 90 days. Notably, following the Nasdaq’s all-time highs, Bitcoin surged by an impressive 46% in the same 90-day timeframe.
For crypto markets to regain their momentum, active movement of stablecoins is essential, along with a cooling off of derivatives trading and substantial purchases from institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The daily chart shows the total crypto market cap valuation at $3.8 trillion. Source: TOTAL on TradingView.com
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The crypto market has long moved in the shadow of Bitcoin, because for years, its rallies and sharp drops have pulled nearly every other digital asset such as XRP with it. However, according to Versan Aljarrah, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, the XRP token could break away from this cycle. According to him, XRP is on a different mission, one that goes beyond speculation and closer to real-world use. That role is why he says it will not mirror Bitcoin’s path, and why a decoupling is now on the horizon.
Versan Aljarrah Reveals XRP’s Institutional Role Sets It Apart From Bitcoin
Aljarrah stresses that XRP does not follow Bitcoin’s “digital gold” story. While Bitcoin serves as a store of value, XRP serves a very different purpose. In the X post, the expert refers to the cryptocurrency as a bridge asset for banks and financial institutions.
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In today’s financial world, cross-border payments can often be slow, expensive, and risky because of foreign-exchange issues. XRP addresses these problems by cutting out multiple intermediaries. According to Aljarrah, this practical utility places XRP closer to the daily operations of global finance, rather than the speculative trading behavior that defines Bitcoin.
Rather than acting like a typical cryptocurrency, XRP is evolving into core financial infrastructure. That transformation, according to Aljarrah, could move XRP far beyond a purely speculative asset and position it as part of the underlying system that connects currencies and payment networks worldwide.
Why Regulatory Clarity And Adoption Drive XRP Toward Decoupling
For years, one of the biggest obstacles facing XRP was legal uncertainty. Ripple Labs, the company associated with XRP, was embroiled in a lawsuit with the SEC. But that cloud has now lifted. Court rulings have made it clear that XRP sales on public exchanges are not securities transactions, and with the appeals dropped, the case is now closed.
With the court issue resolved, attention is shifting to growth, as developers are now adding new tools for institutions to the XRP ecosystem, including automated market making, stablecoin support, and updated token standards.
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Banks, fintech companies, and payment providers are starting to test and integrate with XRP. At the same time, the XRP Ledger is growing stronger. Ripple has also launched RLUSD, a stablecoin, and is working on obtaining banking licenses worldwide. All these steps point toward a token that evolves into financial infrastructure rather than remaining a speculative play.
Aljarrah notes that these changes mean XRP will no longer move like Bitcoin. Its price will not only depend on market speculation but also on its usage, the strength of regulations, and the growing demand for instant settlement. For these reasons, he believes decoupling is certain. Over time, XRP will carve its own path as adoption spreads and its role in finance becomes more central.
Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead believes a geopolitical shift in reserve management will push adversaries of the United States into Bitcoin at massive scale, calling it “inevitable” that China and Russia eventually hold “trillions of dollars” worth of the asset.
Speaking on Blockworks’ Empire podcast released this week, the billionaire framed the prediction as part of a longer-term rotation in global reserve assets and a response to sanction risk embedded in dollar-denominated holdings. “I think it’ll take a decade or two,” Morehead said, adding that the first movers will likely include US-aligned Gulf states before “the big one” arrives with countries “antagonistic to the United States, like China or Russia.”
Why Russia And China Will Adopt Bitcoin
Morehead anchored his argument in the historical cadence of reserve transitions and the vulnerability of holding claims on a rival’s financial system. “You gotta remember, the reserve currency’s changed every 80 or 100 years… no one’s ever really lasted for more than, let’s call it 100, 110 years,” he said.
While calling it “inconceivable that the dollar will be supplanted” overnight, he warned that countries with large US Treasury positions face concentrated political risk. Citing China’s portfolio, he argued: “It’s really pretty crazy to have your entire country’s life savings in an asset that your potential adversary could literally just cancel.” In his view, that calculus makes it “inevitable” that such countries “will have started to save in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies” within the next decade.
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The provocation lands amid measurable changes in how major economies hold US debt. Official Treasury data for July 2025 show China’s reported Treasury holdings at $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2008 and down markedly over the past decade, a decline often read as gradual diversification of reserves rather than abrupt abandonment.
JUST IN: BILLIONAIRE DAN MOREHEAD JUST SAID IT’S “INEVITABLE” CHINA AND RUSSIA WILL HOLD TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN #BITCOIN
Japan remains the largest holder at roughly $1.15 trillion, with the United Kingdom near $900 billion. The broader pool of foreign-held Treasuries nonetheless hit a record in July. These figures illustrate that while the dollar system remains deep and liquid, China’s share is slipping at the margin—the exact dynamic Morehead argues could accelerate alternative reserve strategies over time.
Morehead’s timeline also intersects with a flurry of policy proposals that, if enacted, would normalize sovereign Bitcoin exposure. In March, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a national digital asset stockpile. Wyoming legislators separately advanced a bill to permit limited Bitcoin investments—capped at 3%—within certain state funds, an incremental step toward institutional reserve management in digital assets at the state level.
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Outside the US, Gulf governments are already experimenting at the edges of sovereign crypto exposure—another plank in Morehead’s thesis. The United Arab Emirates’ has launched state-backed mining initiatives and disclosures suggesting several thousand BTC accumulated on the balance sheet via those operations.
Skeptics will note that moving “trillions” of dollars into Bitcoin would require not only policy shifts but also market structure capable of absorbing sustained sovereign demand without disorderly volatility. Liquidity depth has improved with US spot ETF adoption and growing derivatives markets, yet Bitcoin’s free float, custody frameworks, and cross-border payment rails still face periodic stress.
Morehead, however, situates the thesis in a long arc rather than a short-term trade. “I don’t think it’s gonna happen overnight,” he said, emphasizing a horizon of “a decade or two” and a phased path in which US-aligned adopters pave the way for politically non-aligned states that prize censorship resistance and sanction insulation.
For China and Russia specifically, the impetus would be as much strategic as financial. China’s willingness to chip away at Treasuries aligns with its broader push to diversify reserves into gold and other assets, while Russia’s post-2014 and 2022 sanctions experience has already driven a dramatic reconfiguration of its reserve composition.
Bitcoin has been celebrated as digital gold and a secure store of value with limited functionality, but Solana’s high-speed, low-cost blockchain is changing that narrative. By bridging BTC into SOL’s DeFi ecosystem, BTC gains instant settlement, programmable use cases, and access to lending, borrowing, and yield opportunities.
The best form of Bitcoin is literally on Solana, citing the network’s ability to transform BTC from a static store of value into a dynamic, productive asset. Solana Sensei, the Founder of Sensei holdings and Namaste group, has highlighted on X that 66% of all wrapped Bitcoin (wBTC) traders are on the Solana network. He supports this claim with the reasons why people are choosing to hold and use their BTC on SOL.
Why Solana’s Speed And Low Fees Change The Game
Solana is extremely cheap in transactions, a stark contrast to the $5 to $50+ fees often seen on the Bitcoin or Ethereum networks for the same move. With transaction finality in approximately 400 milliseconds, BTC transfers on SOL become nearly instant, compared to the minutes or hours of waiting on other chains. SOL’s capacity to process 65,000 TPS allows it to handle BTC at an internet-scale without network congestion.
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Furthermore, Bitcoin becomes a programmable asset with deep integration into DeFi protocols like Jupiter, Raydium, Orca, Drift, and Kamino, enabling instant trading, lending, and use as collateral. Also, BTC becomes programmable in SOL DeFi, NFT, and RWAs, without the need for bridges across multiple chains.
This integration transforms BTC into a dynamic, productive asset that can be used for lending, staking, and liquidity provision or structural products in ways that are not possible on the native BTC chain. BTC custody solutions, such as tBTC, sBTC, or the Wormhole BTC, combined with SOL’s high validator count and Jito MEV protection, are making it secure to use BTC on the network.
Bitcoin on SOL pairs with USDC and USD1, which are the stablecoins that dominate settlement volume across all chains. With products like the SOL Mobile Saga and Seeker, there are instant BTC swaps and BTC payments on mobile. As the focus on SOL increases, the network is becoming a hub for ETFs and RWAs, with institutional flows ramping up. Meanwhile, Wrapped BTC on SOL will be directly plugged into that liquidity.
Earning Native Bitcoin on Solana Through mSOL
Analyst CPrinz, the on-chain Researcher, has revealed a new partnership between Marinade, SOL’s leading staking platform with 10 million and $1.7 billion in total value locked, and Zeus Network.
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Specifically, the collaboration is designed to expand the utility of Marinade liquid staked SOL token, mSOL, by enabling users to earn native BTC on the SOL blockchain. Also, this partnership unlocks new opportunities across DeFi, marking a major step forward for cross-chain innovation.
SOL trading at $221 on the 1D chart | Source: SOLUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s listless tape in the face of roaring macro risk is less a contradiction than a timing problem, argues this week’s edition of The Weekly Insight (Week 160, Sept. 20, 2025). Writing under the banner “Why’s BTC Lagging?”, contributor @CryptoinsightUK sets a decisively constructive medium-term tone—“I want to start this week by saying I am bullish, and I will continue to be bullish until I believe we are close to a top”—while acknowledging that the market feels late-cycle and emotionally frayed. “With that said, I do think we are closer to a top than a low here,” he adds, but the author still believes “we are approaching the most euphoric stage of this bull cycle.”
Why Is Bitcoin Lagging?
The piece pins much of today’s malaise on sentiment reflexivity. Crypto-Twitter’s grinding negativity is described as a view-generating feedback loop that makes the market feel heavier than it is. “That lag can feel frustrating,” the author writes, noting that the Fear & Greed Index has not displayed the clustered “extreme greed” readings that characterized the 2021 double-top.
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Aside from a burst of exuberance around late-2024/early-2025—“which coincided with XRP’s rally from around 50 cents to $2.70, eventually topping out at about $3.30 to $3.40”—the index has hovered in the mid-range, far from the blow-off conditions that typically mark cycle peaks. The implication is straightforward: despite the noise, the market has yet to show the classic euphoria clusters that precede tops.
Macro correlations, often invoked to explain Bitcoin’s leadership or underperformance, are used here to argue for lag rather than breakdown. On M2 money supply, the author reiterates a well-tracked three-month linkage: “Bitcoin and the M2 money supply have correlated closely so far, but in the last two to three months M2 has absolutely ripped higher.” From here, readers can “either argue that the correlation has broken down, or that Bitcoin is simply lagging and has yet to catch up.”
Bitcoin vs. M2 | Source: Substack
A similar read extends to gold. Directional leadership has alternated between the two assets, but with bullion pressing higher, a catch-up in BTC would “imply a move towards at least $135,000, compared to the current level of around $115,000.” Equities tell the same story in another register: the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P, and Russell 2000 are at or near fresh all-time highs while Bitcoin has “mostly chopped sideways,” again “looking as though it may be lagging behind.”
Market microstructure adds a decisive layer. The letter emphasizes the interaction between visible liquidity pockets and consolidation dynamics. “Every single time there has been a significant liquidity build up, Bitcoin has eventually run through it.” As price has stepped higher, resting liquidity has thickened—“red indicates the deepest liquidity, orange the next, and green the lightest”—and breakouts have been most forceful once those deep pockets were taken.
The example given is the “run from $70k to $100k,” where “heavy consolidation was followed by an explosive breakout.” By that logic, the current map “is pointing to a move toward $140k or higher,” which also dovetails with the gold-parity argument. The author’s metaphor is telling: “I often explain price action like stored energy. The longer it consolidates and charges, the bigger the eventual release.”
What Role Do Altcoins Play?
The most forceful claim in the issue is not about Bitcoin at all but about altcoins. Both Total2 (crypto ex-BTC) and Total3 (crypto ex-BTC and ETH) are said to have “closed a daily candle into price discovery.” Total2 “closed a weekly all time high and is now extremely close to closing a second consecutive weekly high,” while Total3 sits “right on the edge of breaking into new all-time highs.”
Structurally, the report frames Total2 as completing a Wyckoff accumulation and cup-and-handle, and Total3 as carving an ascending triangle poised for continuation. The combination—alts pressing price discovery while Bitcoin “is preparing to push to new highs”—is the setup the author associates with “mania or euphoria.” It is also the basis for a clear positioning disclosure: “it is exactly why I am fully positioned in altcoins here.”
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That rotation view is bolstered by a call on Bitcoin dominance. The author reiterates a long-held target: “I think we are heading down to at least the 35.5 percent level, and potentially even into the low 20s.” The historical analogs are unambiguous: from the 2017 highs, dominance “dropped by 62 percent,” and from the 2021 highs it “dropped by 46 percent,” each time accompanied by an acceleration in the monthly decline.
Bitcoin dominance | Source: Substack
If a similar acceleration coincides with BTC “ripping to new all time highs,” the result would be “a face melting altcoin rally that most people cannot even imagine right now.” The letter links this purely market-internal setup with external catalysts, citing “major legislative shifts in the largest financial economy in the world” and “the potential influx of trillions of dollars through stablecoins and the Clarity Act, which could be passed as soon as November.”
Where Is Bitcoin Price Heading Next?
The issue closes with a complementary technical brief by @thecryptomann1 that brings the near-term risk map into focus. For BTC spot, “decision time… is fast approaching,” with the zone between $111,000 and $115,000 flagged as “huge.” Lose it, and “the liquidity around the $105K range feels inevitable.” Exchange-side order-book heatmaps show “a chunk of liquidity sitting here across all exchanges,” suggesting elevated volatility if tested. The analyst doesn’t force a directional call—“I’m unsure which way the market swings”—and labels aggressive speculation “dangerous” in the current chop.
Bitcoin price analysis | Source: Substack
A second lens comes via USDT dominance (USDT.D), which the analyst inverts to track risk appetite. The metric has been “stuck in [a] range for the past 15 months or so,” but structurally “looks like a chart that’s on its way to revisit its highs (which, in reality, are the lows).” The stated target remains 3.76%. The logic is deliberately simple—range structure, a hold of the 0.5 retracement, persistence in trend, and defense of a key “blue box” support—each pointing “to strength,” i.e., room for risk to keep advancing before stablecoin dominance rises again. That underpins a tactical approach: “The way I’m playing it is swinging long until USDT.D hits 3.76%, then de-risking. That’s not financial advice, just the way I’m approaching it.”
The short-term “max pain” path is sketched with characteristic market irony. One plausible sequence is “$BTC pushing up to $120,000, everyone panicking and going long, fueling the liquidity below us, and then sweeping the lows.” The analyst cautions that a straight drop to the “low $100,000 range” feels “too obvious,” but concedes that both upside and downside liquidity are attractors in a compressed-volatility environment. The mood music for traders is summed, wryly, in a single line: “it’s getting squeaky bum time.”
The total illiquid Bitcoin has reached a new high, providing a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto. This refers to the BTC supply that is unlikely to hit the open, given the long-term holding of the investors who own these coins.
Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply Hits New High
Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a new high of 14.3 million BTC, marking over 72% of the flagship’s circulating supply. This supply is held by long-term holders (LTHs) who haven’t moved their coins in over seven years, highlighting a strong conviction in the flagship crypto.
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A large part of Bitcoin’s supply being in the hands of long-term holders is typically bullish, as it continuously reduces the amount of selling pressure on the coin. It could also lead to a potential supply shock, whereby demand outpaces supply.
Asset manager Fidelity stated in a research report that this new demand for BTC, coupled with a fixed supply and decreasing issuance schedule, was what likely sparked the rally to a new all-time high (ATH) above $124,000. Fidelity further predicted that this upward trend for the Bitcoin price could continue in the years ahead.
Meanwhile, Fidelity highlighted two distinct cohorts that satisfy the threshold of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply. The first is the BTC that was last moved seven or more years ago, while the second is public companies that hold at least 1,000 BTC. Michael Saylor’s Strategy leads the latter as his company currently holds 638,985 BTC, which accounts for over 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Strategy hasn’t sold any coin since it began accumulating in 2020.
Fidelity predicts that the combined group will hold over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025 or over 28% of the crypto’s total supply of 21 million. The asset manager noted that BTC’s illiquid supply has only decreased quarter-over-quarter once in its history.
BTC’s Scarcity May Become Its “Focal Point”
Fidelity predicts that over time, Bitcoin’s scarcity may become the focal point as more entities buy and hold BTC long term. They noted that the illiquid supply could rise drastically if nation-state adoption increases and the regulatory environment continues to evolve. Countries like the U.S. are already looking to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which could create a massive supply shock.
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On the other hand, Fidelity noted that there is the possibility of large amounts of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply being transferred. This could happen as long-term holders and public companies move to realize gains, possibly due to a significant price appreciation. The asset manager earlier mentioned that early signs of potential capitulation may already be emerging as 80,000 ancient BTC were sold in July 2025.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $115,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
BTC trading at $115,963 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Opeyemi is a proficient writer and enthusiast in the exciting and unique cryptocurrency realm. While the digital asset industry was not his first choice, he has remained absolutely drawn since making a foray into the space over two years. Now, Opeyemi takes pride in creating unique pieces unraveling the complexities of blockchain technology and sharing insights on the latest trends in the world of cryptocurrencies.
Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.
Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.
When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.
Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K. Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.
Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.
Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.
Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding near $117,500, up about 6.1% over the past two weeks. However, recent data from Binance shows that BTC’s current price action is largely supported by retail investors, while whales have been noticeably absent.
Bitcoin Holds $117,500 Amid High Retail Inflows
According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Bitcoin is hovering around the $117,500 price level, supported by active inflows from retail investors. Notably, large whale inflows have been completely absent, indicating that the current market is being driven by individuals more than by large wallets.
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Inflows ranging from 0 to 0.001 BTC recorded approximately 97,000 BTC. Similarly, inflows from the 0.001 to 0.01 BTC segment totaled nearly 719,000 BTC.
The distribution above suggests that Bitcoin’s current rally is largely driven by retail investors. These investors conduct numerous but small-volume transactions, confirming that individual investors are shaping the market dynamics. Arab Chain added:
The figures reveal that the bulk of inflows are concentrated in small and medium-sized transactions, reflecting the dominance of retail activity in Bitcoin trading. This liquidity, despite its limited scale, has helped keep the market balanced at current levels.
It is worth emphasizing that there has been almost no whale pressure during the current market rally. Specifically, no significant surges in inflows of more than 100 BTC were observed, mitigating the likelihood of a sharp short-term price correction.
To conclude, the current market situation shows that Bitcoin is experiencing a state of equilibrium, largely due to heightened retail investor participation. Such a scenario gives the market an opportunity to steadily surge toward the important $120,000 resistance level.
That said, it would be wise to keep an eye on any whale activity, as it could quickly alter the market’s direction. Any sudden entry of whale inflows could trigger a rapid price correction, similar to previous market tops.
Experts Divided On BTC Price Action
As Bitcoin trades about 5.4% below its all-time high (ATH), there are signs that the top cryptocurrency by market cap may be on the cusp of a fresh rally. For instance, BTC recently broke above the mid-term holder breakeven, reducing the likelihood of an immediate sell-off.
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Recent positive developments – such as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates by 25 basis points – could reinvigorate the crypto market. Against that backdrop, crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes recently reiterated his ambitious $1 million BTC prediction.
That said, gold bug Peter Schiff opines that BTC has likely already peaked for this market cycle. At press time, BTC trades at $117,523, up 1.8% in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin is targeting the $118,000 level, reigniting bullish momentum and fueling speculation of a potential push toward a new all-time high. With buyers regaining control after recent volatility, this breakout could open the path toward $120,000 and beyond.
Pullback Seen As Final Shakeout Before Rally
Crypto VIP Signal, in a recent update, pointed out that Bitcoin experienced a sharp pullback yesterday after news of a rate cut, coupled with remarks from Jerome Powell, triggered a wave of volatility. The decline caught the attention of traders across the market, but the expert’s analysis suggests that this movement is more likely a final shakeout rather than the start of a broader correction.
Interestingly, despite the pullback, Bitcoin has quickly shown signs of resilience. This recovery suggests that the underlying demand for BTC remains intact, and market participants are still confident about its bullish trajectory.
Crypto VIP Signal emphasized that the most critical level to watch in the short term is $118,000. A successful breakout above this resistance would serve as a strong bullish confirmation, potentially accelerating the rally toward $120,000. If achieved, this would not only mark another key milestone but also signal that Bitcoin remains firmly within a bullish cycle, raising the likelihood of a new all-time high on the horizon.
Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Signal Possible Path To $120,000
Based on the latest BTC update from EGRAG CRYPTO, the bullish outlook for Bitcoin is being reinforced by key technical indicators. The report highlights that a decisive close above the middle upper section of the Bollinger Bands (BB) could be the catalyst needed to propel the price higher.
Analysts often interpret this technical formation as a sign of building momentum and can spark a breakout from a period of consolidation. If Bitcoin successfully achieves this, it would pave the way for a run toward the significant $120,000 resistance level.
The update paints a highly optimistic picture for the short term, suggesting that a new record could be within reach. According to EGRAG CRYPTO, should BTC manage to break through and sustain a price above $120,000 today, it may set a new all-time high. Basically, this milestone might trigger a fresh wave of investor excitement and market liquidity as the price moves into uncharted territory.
Despite the strong bullish sentiment, the analysis includes a critical warning for traders. The $117,300 mark is identified as a crucial level to watch. If the price encounters a strong rejection at this point, it could trigger a temporary reversal to the $113,300 support level.
Bitcoin has gained 7% since the start of September, showing renewed strength after weeks of uneven price action. Yet, the market is bracing for heightened volatility in the coming days as attention shifts to this Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. Investors widely expect a rate cut, but the size of the move remains the key question shaping sentiment.
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If the Fed opts for a 25 basis point cut, many analysts see it as a measured and healthy pivot that could support risk assets, including Bitcoin, without sparking fears of deeper economic weakness. Such a move would likely reinforce confidence in a controlled transition toward easier monetary policy.
On the other hand, a 50 basis point cut could send a very different signal. While it may initially provide liquidity relief, markets could interpret it as a sign of serious underlying fragility in the economy. That scenario risks triggering panic, especially if investors fear the Fed is reacting to problems worse than expected.
Bitcoin Holds Key Levels Ahead Of Fed’s Decision
According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin is showing signs of resilience as it trades at the upper boundary of its channel near $116,400, supported by a sustained bullish momentum score of 0.8. This score, which reflects the balance of market forces, suggests that despite recent volatility, Bitcoin’s structural strength remains intact.
Adler notes that the market is heavily driven by expectations of a rate cut, which has injected confidence into risk assets. The timing of this setup could not be more critical, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its interest rate decision on September 17, 2025, at 2:00 PM Eastern Time.
Interestingly, while Bitcoin has held its ground at key resistance levels, altcoins have started to show strength independently for the first time in months. This decoupling suggests that capital rotation is taking place, with investors diversifying beyond Bitcoin. As liquidity expands, this dynamic could mark the start of a new market phase, where both Bitcoin and altcoins drive momentum instead of BTC alone.
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Testing Key Resistance Levels
Bitcoin is currently trading around $114,938, showing consolidation just below the $116,000 resistance zone. The chart highlights a notable rebound from early September lows near $110,000, with BTC climbing steadily back into its mid-range. Price is now attempting to hold gains above the 50-day moving average (blue line) and is hovering around the 100-day (green line) and 200-day (red line) moving averages, which are converging and creating a dense resistance cluster.
This setup reflects a tense balance between bulls and bears. Bulls have managed to protect $110,000 and push BTC higher, signaling renewed strength. On the other hand, BTC has repeatedly failed to establish momentum above $116,000, a level that must be cleared decisively to target the major resistance near $123,217, marked on the chart as the next critical upside barrier.
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The current sideways structure suggests a drift phase, with traders waiting for catalysts such as the upcoming Fed rate decision. A successful breakout above $116,000 could reignite momentum toward $120,000 and beyond. However, failure to hold above the 50-day SMA risks a retest of $112,000 or even $110,000 support. For now, Bitcoin remains range-bound, but pressure is building for a directional move.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a critical turning point, successfully flipping a key horizontal support zone that previously acted as resistance. With momentum now building, the focus has shifted to the next major test: the $117,000 resistance level. A decisive move above this threshold would not only confirm the continuation of the current rally but also set the stage for a potential run toward new highs.
Daily Support Flip Confirms Bullish Control
Alpha Crypto Signal, in a recent market update, pointed out that BTC is showing renewed strength on the daily timeframe. The leading cryptocurrency successfully flipped a key horizontal zone into support, a move that highlights growing buyer dominance in the market. This structural shift is seen as a positive development for bulls, laying the groundwork for further upside momentum.
With buyers firmly in control, Bitcoin’s price action is now being driven higher toward the previous swing high near $117,000. This level has emerged as the next significant hurdle for bulls, acting as a critical area where market sentiment could either extend the rally or spark profit-taking.
The analysis further noted that if Bitcoin manages to push above $117,000, the level itself could turn into an attractive area for potential short setups. However, such a strategy carries risks, as the invalidation point would be a decisive breakout above BTC’s all-time high.
Until then, $117,000 stands out as the key level of interest for market participants. How Bitcoin reacts in this zone will determine whether it consolidates, faces rejection, or surges higher. For traders, this level offers a critical point to evaluate possible entries, exits, and positioning as the next major move takes shape.
Bitcoin Struggles To Secure A Hold Above $116,000
According to a recent post by Crypto VIP Signal, Bitcoin is continuing its upward trajectory. However, the cryptocurrency has not yet been able to firmly hold above the $116,000 level, which suggests that while the overall trend is bullish, buyers have yet to fully overcome this significant hurdle.
Crypto VIP Signal’s analysis notes that the entire market is looking positive, but a temporary slowdown can be expected. This is primarily attributed to a decline in trading volume, which is a common occurrence on weekends as activity from institutional traders and large investors often lessens.
Given these conditions, Crypto VIP Signal predicts that Bitcoin will likely experience a period of sideways movement. The consolidation phase would allow the market to digest recent gains and build the necessary momentum to attempt another push past the $116,000 resistance.
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Bitcoin’s current rebound off the $107,200 low has sparked renewed debate over whether the market has already set its local bottom and is positioned to rally higher.. Independent analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) argues that the probability is “90%+” that the low has been planted, citing both price structure and his recurring “FOMC reversal confluence” framework as confirmation.
Analyst Claims 90% Chance The Bitcoin Bottom Is In
Astronomer, who publicly documented his short-term bearish call from $123,000 down to the $110,000–$111,000 zone, revealed that he flipped long as the target was reached in late August. “Alright, as if the confluences of my confidence in the bottom being in the $110k area at the end of August weren’t strong enough … there now is another confluence lining up,” he wrote. According to him, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting cycle has historically functioned as a turning point for Bitcoin trends.
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He explained: “The FOMC meeting data reverses the ongoing trend at minimum 0 bars (on the date), or 6 bars at most before the date, and it has done that correctly 90%+ of the times. The few times it hasn’t, was because our quarterly long took over (which has more power).” In practice, Astronomer argues, markets front-run the event, as insiders and well-capitalized players set the post-FOMC direction before retail sentiment digests the outcome.
With the next FOMC scheduled for September 18, he contends the downtrend from $123,000 to $110,000 already exhausted itself ahead of schedule. “Now with FOMC coming up … the low is likely already planted, and the trend reversed to up again,” he said.
Bitcoin price analysis | Source: X @astronomer_zero
The analyst contrasted his methodology with the broader crypto commentary ecosystem, where many influencers continue to forecast further downside and a “red September.” He called such views “utter nonsense” rooted in surface-level seasonality. “Every time it does work, it plants its bottom before the actual meeting to front run the anticipation … insiders already have set the post FOMC price direction, regardless of the outcome,” he wrote, stressing that relying on generic “be careful” warnings ahead of central bank events misses the structural shift.
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After his long entry at $110,000, Bitcoin has since climbed above $115,000, prompting Astronomer to declare September’s bearish thesis already invalid. “ September will close green. Yup, Septembears officially 6% in the wrong now. As September opened at 108,299, and price is now at 115,000. That puts September in the upper historical quartile of how green it is at the moment,” he noted.
He further pointed to the last two years as evidence that September’s reputation as a seasonally weak month for Bitcoin has lost statistical edge. “A certain month indeed doesn’t have to be green. ‘Seasonality’ is just a cookie cutter version of properly using cycles. Look at last two years, September has also been green and mean to the bears,” he wrote.
For Astronomer, the conclusion is clear: “When many confluences point in the same direction, it usually means you have solved the rubik’s cube correctly and so can confidently believe.” Still, he tempered the conviction with risk management discipline, stating: “Of course, I could always be wrong, although it has been a long time we lost a trade, never go all in. Take a decent size risk and sleep sound.”
With Bitcoin holding above $115,000 and the FOMC meeting days away, the market’s near-term verdict on whether a sustainable bottom has formed may arrive sooner rather than later.
Bitcoin is once again at a decisive moment after several days of tight consolidation around the $110K level. Bulls are making an effort to defend this critical support, while also eyeing the $113K resistance as the next key barrier. A breakout above it could provide the momentum needed for BTC to retest higher supply zones and reignite bullish sentiment. However, the market remains fragile, with volatility and fear weighing heavily on investor confidence.
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Top analyst Axel Adler provided important context from the derivatives market. According to Adler, the Bitcoin Futures Pressure Score currently stands at 18%, which is considered low to moderate and closer to the neutral zone. This suggests that there is no overwhelming short pressure from leverage at this time. In practical terms, futures traders are not aggressively building short positions, nor are they significantly adding to long exposure.
This balance reflects a cautious market environment where participants are waiting for a catalyst to determine direction. Until then, Bitcoin’s battle between $110K support and $113K resistance will remain the focal point, setting the stage for the next major move in either direction.
Bitcoin Futures In Neutral Mode
According to Adler, the current state of the futures market paints a picture of caution rather than conviction. With the Pressure Score at 18%, the indicator suggests a neutral environment where traders are neither aggressively building long positions nor stacking shorts. Adler explains that this lack of strong directional signals reflects an indecisive market, where participants are waiting for external catalysts before committing capital.
Bitcoin Open Interest Pressure Score | Source: Axel Adler
The Pressure Score becomes particularly important in identifying potential downside risks. Adler notes that when the metric rises toward the 30–40% range, it indicates that shorts are being built up at an accelerated pace. In such cases, open interest increases faster than usual, creating conditions that often lead to sudden price dumps. For now, Bitcoin is not in that danger zone, but the market remains highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment.
What adds to the current uncertainty is the weakening US labor market, which has fueled speculation about the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. Any surprise in economic data or Fed guidance could easily tip the balance, triggering volatility across crypto markets. As investors digest these signals, Bitcoin is expected to trade with increased choppiness in the coming days, with bulls and bears closely monitoring the $110K–$113K range as the decisive battleground.
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Technical Insights: Trading Between Key Levels
Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,196, showing a modest recovery after testing lows near $110,000. The chart highlights a consolidation phase, with BTC holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $112,102, while the 50-day SMA sits higher at $114,650, acting as immediate resistance. A decisive close above this level could open the path for Bitcoin to retest $116,000 and potentially challenge the major resistance at $123,217, marked by the summer peak.
On the downside, the 200-day SMA at $101,980 provides a strong layer of support. As long as BTC remains above this level, the broader bullish structure remains intact despite recent volatility. However, repeated failures to break above the 50-day SMA may invite further consolidation, with risks of a retest of the $108,000–$110,000 zone if selling pressure re-emerges.
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Bulls need to reclaim $114,650 to shift momentum toward the $120K region, while bears aim to defend resistance and push the price lower. The coming days are likely to determine whether Bitcoin resumes its broader uptrend or extends its correction.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin price has managed to stay above $110,000 over the weekend, and on-chain data shows that the premier cryptocurrency sits above three crucial support levels. Here are the critical levels to watch out for over the next few weeks.
Where Are The Next Support Levels For BTC?
On Saturday, September 6, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez took to the social media platform X to offer on-chain insights into the current layout of the Bitcoin price. This price evaluation, which revolves around the BTC UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric, shows the next support levels for Bitcoin.
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The capacity for a price level to act as an on-chain support or resistance zone usually depends on the number of investors who have their cost basis at the given level. An investor’s cost basis refers to the actual price at which they purchased a cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this case).
The relevant indicator here—UTXO Realized Price Distribution—tracks the amount of a particular cryptocurrency that was acquired at a specific price level. Typically, price levels below the current spot value with substantial buying activity are often considered as major support zones. Meanwhile, levels above the current price with significant investor cost bases usually act as major resistance areas.
Source: @ali_charts on X
As shown in the chart above, $108,250, $104,250, and $97,050 are the next crucial support levels for the Bitcoin price. Data from Glassnode shows that nearly 432,000 coins were bought in the $108,250 zone, while roughly 401,000 coins were purchased around the $104,250 region. Meanwhile, 404,000 BTC were acquired around the $97,054 area.
The rationale behind this is that investors with a cost basis around these price levels are likely to double down on their positions and purchase more coins. This increased buying activity will, hence, provide a cushion for the Bitcoin price to stay afloat and potentially bounce back.
It’s worth mentioning that the next major resistance level for the Bitcoin price based on the URPD metric is around $116,963. Several investors (550,000 coins) around this level are likely to close their positions when the price returns to its cost basis, thereby putting downward pressure on the BTC price.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $110,628, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is up by more than 1% in the past seven days.
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The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
In his latest daily technical outlook, Cryptowzrd highlighted that Bitcoin closed the day with a gravestone doji, while holding above a critical level. According to the analysis, more bullish candles are needed to sustain momentum and push the price toward the $120,000 resistance, especially as the market contends with ongoing fundamental pressures.
Fundamentals Support Bitcoin Despite Weak NFP Print
Cryptowzrd highlighted that the daily candle of Bitcoin closed indecisively, signaling uncertainty as the market evaluates its next move. Despite this indecision, BTC remains above the crucial $110,500 level, which continues to serve as a strong support zone. This level remains critical in determining whether bullish momentum can be sustained in the short term.
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The analyst noted that Bitcoin has maintained its bullish edge even in the face of a lower-than-expected NFP print, triggered by fundamental commentary. This development suggests that broader market sentiment is still supportive of BTC, and technical strength is being reinforced by macroeconomic factors.
From a weekly perspective, traditional markets have closed on a bullish note, adding further support to Bitcoin’s potential upside. However, a series of consecutive bullish daily candles is needed to solidify confidence in a rally toward the $120,000 resistance level. Without this confirmation, the market could remain in a holding pattern, leaving room for volatility and short-term swings.
On the downside, he cautioned that if Bitcoin breaks below the $110,500 level by mid-week, it could open the door for a deeper correction, potentially testing the $100,000 support zone. Such a move would shift market dynamics, increasing selling pressure and creating strategic opportunities for traders to position for short-term downside plays.
Over the weekend, Cryptowzrd will be closely monitoring lower-time frame charts to identify actionable scalp opportunities while ensuring that the current position above $110,500 remains secure.
Intraday Volatility Driven By NFP And Market Fundamentals
Concluding his analysis, the analyst highlighted that the intraday chart of BTC has been volatile, influenced by recent fundamental commentary and the lower-than-expected NFP print. This volatility reflects the market’s uncertainty, as traders weigh both technical and macroeconomic factors.
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He noted that a decisive move above $113,200 would signal stronger bullish momentum, potentially pushing Bitcoin higher and helping to secure the current position. Such a breakout signals that buyers are regaining control of the market.
On the other hand, a drop below $110,400 could open the door for additional downside. For now, the analyst plans to wait patiently for the market to form a more mature trade setup before taking the next actionable position.
BTC trading at $110,823 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen three waves of major inflows from the veteran hands in this cycle so far.
Bitcoin Coin Days Destroyed Shot Up Alongside Earlier ETF Net Inflows
As explained by CryptoQuant author Maartunn in a new post on X, Bitcoin has been observing major reshuffles related to old tokens and the spot ETFs. The spot ETFs refer to investment vehicles that trade on traditional platforms and allow investors to gain exposure to an underlying asset like BTC without having to directly own the asset.
The BTC spot ETFs launched in the US in January 2024. Since then, the funds have generally enjoyed growth, with a few periods involving a particularly sharp burst of inflows. The main attraction of the ETFs is that investors unfamiliar with the cryptocurrency world can invest into BTC in a form that’s convenient to them.
When a trader invests into such a vehicle, the fund buys an equivalent amount of the cryptocurrency on the client’s behalf. This reflects as an on-chain movement into the wallets associated with the ETF.
Below is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 30-day Bitcoin spot ETF netflow since the start of 2024.
As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin spot ETF netflow has seen a few phases of extremely positive values. These naturally correspond to a high amount of demand for the ETFs.
Interestingly, there is a pattern common among these large waves of inflows. From the chart, it’s visible that the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) gave distribution signals alongside the netflow spikes.
The CDD is an on-chain indicator that measures the total number of coin days that are being “destroyed” in transactions across the BTC network. A coin day is a quantity that one BTC accumulates after staying dormant on the blockchain for one day. When a token dormant for some number days is moved, its coin days counter returns back to zero. The coin days that it had previously been carrying are said to be destroyed.
Generally, spikes in this metric correspond to activity from the diamond hands of the network. These HODLers tend to accumulate a massive amount of coin days with their patience, so when they finally break their silence, large-scale destruction of coin days takes places.
The three major Bitcoin ETF net inflow waves of Summer 2024, Fall 2024, and Summer 2025 all accompanied a distribution signal from the CDD, which suggests a rotation of coins happened from the veteran hands to new demand coming through these vehicles.
Since the latest such wave, the ETF netflow has calmed down to the neutral level, meaning demand has gone cold. “ETF inflows are key,” notes Maartunn. “Without strong new demand, selling pressure from new holders could increase.”
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $110,500, up 2% over the past week.
Bitcoin is entering a fragile stage after days of selling pressure and uncertainty pushed the price into consolidation around the $110,000 level. Bulls are working to defend this key area, but momentum has clearly faded. The market now finds itself in a holding pattern, with investors cautious about whether Bitcoin will stabilize or break lower in the sessions ahead.
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Despite the weakness, there are no clear signals yet of a deeper correction. Historically, retracements within ongoing bull markets often serve as resets rather than trend reversals, but the pressure on Bitcoin has nonetheless sparked debate about its short-term direction. Holding above current levels is becoming increasingly important, as failure to do so could shift sentiment further in favor of the bears.
Top analyst Axel Adler described the current environment as a neutral-bearish base, meaning flows and price action lack the conviction needed for a decisive bullish push. Until stronger demand emerges, Bitcoin’s recovery is likely to be limited to technical bounces rather than sustained rallies.
Bitcoin Stuck In Neutral-Bearish Base
According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s current structure remains fragile as both price and derivative flows sit below 50, signaling weakness across critical indicators. Adler emphasizes that while short-term rebounds are possible, the market lacks the conviction required for a sustained uptrend. With taker flows still negative and weak, any recovery from present levels is likely to be a mean-reversion bounce toward $113K, aligning with the Fair Value and mid-30-day range, rather than the beginning of a new bullish phase.
Bitcoin Integrated Market Index | Source: Axel Adler
This environment suggests that risk appetite remains absent, leaving the market vulnerable to further tests of lower boundaries. Adler notes that unless flows shift meaningfully, price rallies will likely remain capped and quickly fade as selling pressure reemerges. The nearest bullish setup would require stabilization of flows that could push BTC toward the $113K–$115K region, a technical recovery zone that would ease immediate bearish sentiment but still fall short of confirming a regime shift.
For a true change in market structure, Adler points to two key thresholds: Flow >55 and Price Index >50. Only when both conditions are met will Bitcoin have the foundation for a stronger, trend-confirming rally. Until then, the market faces an elevated risk of repeated retests of support zones, with traders closely monitoring whether BTC can hold above $110K or slip further into correction territory.
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BTC Holding the Line Above $110K
Bitcoin continues to consolidate around the $110K–$111K zone, showing resilience after weeks of sharp selling pressure. The chart highlights how BTC has bounced from recent lows near $108K but still struggles to reclaim higher momentum. The 50-day moving average now acts as resistance, capping the upside attempts and reflecting waning bullish strength.
Despite the pullback from the $123K all-time high, the structure remains intact above the 200-day moving average near $101K, which has consistently served as a long-term support. The current price action shows a market caught in balance: bulls are defending demand, but bears maintain pressure as rallies face rejection around the $112K level.
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The flat trajectory of the 100-day moving average reinforces the consolidation phase, suggesting that a decisive breakout is needed to confirm direction. If Bitcoin closes above $113K in the short term, it could set up a retest of $118K, the mid-range level that has acted as both support and resistance.
Failure to hold the $110K level could expose BTC to repeated tests of $108K and, ultimately, the psychological $105K zone. For now, Bitcoin’s fate hinges on whether buyers can stabilize flows and absorb ongoing selling pressure.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
On-chain data shows the size of the average Bitcoin whale has dropped to the lowest level since 2018, a sign that may be bearish for BTC’s price.
Average Bitcoin Whale Is Holding Just 488 BTC Now
In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the latest trend in the average supply held by Bitcoin whales. Glassnode defines “whales” as entities holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC. At the current exchange rate, the range’s lower bound converts to $11.2 million and upper one to $1.1 billion.
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Thus, the only investors who would qualify for the cohort would be the big-money traders. These holders can carry some degree of influence in the market, so their behavior can be worth keeping an eye on.
The behavior of the cohort as usually gauged from their total holdings, however, can provide a skewed picture about the sentiment among them, as the investors toward the larger end of the range have more of a weightage in it.
One way to pinpoint the behavior of the average whale is by looking at the size of the holdings of the average member of the group. Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in this metric for Bitcoin over the last few years.
The value of the metric appears to have plunged over the past few months | Source: Glassnode on X
As is visible in the graph, the average Bitcoin supply per whale peaked back in early 2022, but switched to a decline as the bear market took over the sector. This suggests the whales reduced their exposure to the cryptocurrency during this period.
With 2023 starting a recovery run for BTC, the average whale started loading up again, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous cycle. This accumulation continued until mid-2024, at which point it once more witnessed a reversal.
Interestingly, instead of backing the rallies that have occurred between then and now, the whales have only accelerated their selling alongside them. The late 2024 run, especially, saw these humongous investors shed their holdings at a rapid pace.
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Today, the amount of Bitcoin supply held by the average whale sits at just 488 tokens, which is the lowest that it has been since December 2018, almost seven years ago.
In another X post, the analytics firm has also talked about how Ethereum whales have been doing recently. In particular, Glassnode has shared the trend in the holdings of the “mega whales,” holders carrying more than 10,000 ETH ($44.6 million).
How the supply held by the ETH mega whales has changed over the last few months | Source: Glassnode on X
As displayed in the above chart, the Ethereum mega whales participated in buying during the recent price surge, but their accumulation has now stopped with the 30-day change in their balance dropping to zero.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $111,900, up more than 1% over the past day.
