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Tag: BTC

  • Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap

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    Bitcoin is finding near-term relief after a sharp rebound toward the $70,000 level, offering temporary optimism following weeks of sustained pressure. The move has improved short-term momentum and eased immediate downside risk. However, the broader market remains characterized by indecision, as many analysts argue that this advance may represent a relief rally within a larger corrective structure rather than the start of a renewed bull phase.

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    According to analysis from XWIN Research Japan, while price has recovered meaningfully from recent lows, underlying derivatives data suggest caution. Open Interest has fallen significantly from prior cycle highs, reflecting an extensive deleveraging process across futures markets. Importantly, the recent price decline occurred alongside contracting Open Interest, indicating that forced liquidations and derivatives-driven position unwinds were primary drivers of the selloff rather than sustained spot distribution.

    Bitcoin Open Interest All Exchanges | Source: CryptoQuant

    Such resets can be constructive, as they reduce excessive leverage and stabilize funding conditions. Nonetheless, a cleaner derivatives landscape does not automatically translate into fresh structural demand. Without clear evidence of renewed capital inflows or expanding spot participation, the current rebound may remain vulnerable to renewed volatility.

    Muted Exchange Flows Suggest Stabilization, Not Yet Structural Strength

    Recent exchange flow data adds nuance to Bitcoin’s current recovery phase. Binance’s Fund Flow Ratio remains subdued near 0.012, indicating that inflows relative to total BTC reserves on the platform are limited. In practical terms, this suggests that immediate sell-side pressure has not intensified, even during the recent move toward the mid-$60K region. The absence of a spike in this metric implies that investors are not rushing to transfer coins to exchanges in panic, which typically accompanies more aggressive distribution phases.

    Bitcoin Binance Fund Flow Ratio | Source: CryptoQuant
    Bitcoin Binance Fund Flow Ratio | Source: CryptoQuant

    However, low inflows should not automatically be interpreted as accumulation. The medium-term trend in the ratio’s moving averages continues to drift downward, indicating that sustained structural demand has yet to reassert itself. Markets can stabilize without transitioning directly into expansion, particularly when liquidity conditions remain cautious.

    Additional context from derivatives positioning reinforces this ambiguity. With leverage still relatively compressed, upward price movements can disproportionately trigger short liquidations, generating rallies driven more by position unwinds than fresh capital deployment. This type of rebound often improves sentiment temporarily but may lack durability without stronger spot participation.

    Overall, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from active selling toward stabilization. Confirmation of a genuine bullish reversal will likely require consistent inflows, improving liquidity, and clearer evidence of renewed investor demand.

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    Bitcoin Tests Support After Sharp Correction

    Bitcoin remains under pressure following a pronounced correction from its recent highs, with price currently stabilizing near the $68,000 region. The weekly structure shows a clear loss of upward momentum after rejection around the $110K–$120K zone, followed by a decisive breakdown below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. This shift typically signals weakening intermediate trend strength rather than simple short-term volatility.

    BTC holding key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC holding key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    Price is now hovering close to the 200-week moving average, historically a critical structural support during transitional market phases. Holding this level could help stabilize sentiment and potentially define a medium-term floor. However, a sustained breakdown below it would likely increase downside risk, as it would confirm deterioration in long-term trend structure.

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    Volume dynamics also warrant attention. The recent selloff occurred with elevated activity compared with preceding consolidation phases, suggesting that distribution — not merely thin liquidity — contributed to the decline. That said, volume has started to moderate as price consolidates, indicating reduced urgency among sellers.

    Bitcoin appears to be transitioning into a defensive consolidation phase. Recovery above the shorter moving averages would be required to restore bullish momentum, while failure to hold current support could extend the corrective cycle further.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Is Jane Street Why Bitcoin Isn’t At $150K? Expert Debunks The Myth

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    The idea that Jane Street is single-handedly the reason why Bitcoin is not trading at $150,000 is the wrong frame, according to ProCap CIO and Bitwise advisor Jeff Park. In a X thread February 25, Park argued that the real issue is not one firm, but a structural feature of the US spot Bitcoin ETF system that gives all authorized participants unusual flexibility in how they hedge and settle trades.

    Is Jane Street Suppressing Bitcoin?

    Park’s core point is that the market has turned a question about Jane Street into a question about the ETF plumbing itself. On IBIT alone, he noted, the authorized participant roster includes Jane Street Capital, JPMorgan, Macquarie, Virtu Americas, Goldman Sachs, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, UBS and ABN AMRO. In his telling, that matters because APs are not ordinary short sellers.

    “The question deserves a precise answer—and the most important thing to understand upfront is that it is not really a question about Jane Street,” Park wrote. “It is a question about a structural feature of the Bitcoin ETF architecture that applies equally to every Authorized Participant in the ecosystem.” He added that the role of those institutions is “genuinely misunderstood, even amongst seasoned industry veterans.”

    The mechanism Park focused on is the AP exemption under Regulation SHO. In standard short selling, traders generally need to locate shares before shorting and face borrowing costs that create pressure to close the trade. APs, Park argued, sit in a different category because their creation and redemption rights effectively let them manufacture ETF shares without those same frictions.

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    “The practical consequence is significant: any AP can manufacture shares at will—no borrow cost, no capital conventionally tied up against the short, and no hard deadline to close the position beyond what is commercially reasonable,” he wrote. “This is the grey window: a regulatory carve-out designed for orderly ETF market-making that is, structurally speaking, indistinguishable from a regulatory arbitrage with unmatched duration.”

    That framing is important because Park is not claiming APs can simply press Bitcoin lower forever. His argument is narrower and more structural. If an AP is short IBIT and chooses to hedge with CME Bitcoin futures rather than buying spot BTC, then the normal arbitrage pathway that would force spot purchases becomes weaker. In that setup, the hedge can remain economically tight enough for market-making purposes while bypassing immediate spot demand.

    “The critical implication: if the hedge is futures rather than spot, the spot was never bought,” Park wrote. “The gap cannot close via the natural arb mechanism because the natural arb buyer chose not to buy spot.” He also cautioned that the separation is not frictionless, since basis traders work to keep futures and spot aligned, but said the basis risk becomes more meaningful in periods of stress.

    The recent shift to in-kind creations and redemptions, in Park’s view, removes another constraint that previously pushed activity into the spot market. Under the earlier cash-only model, APs had to deliver cash, which the fund’s custodian then used to buy Bitcoin. That created what Park called a “structural governor” because spot buying was a mechanical byproduct of creations. In-kind transfers change that. APs can now source Bitcoin directly, at times and from counterparties of their choosing, including OTC desks and negotiated transactions that may minimize visible market impact.

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    Even so, Park stopped short of endorsing outright market suppression claims. “The short answer is that no AP explicitly suppresses Bitcoin price,” he wrote. “What the AP structure can suppress is the integrity of the price discovery mechanism itself. Those are not the same thing—but the second is arguably more consequential than the first.”

    Other Experts Agree

    Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Eric Balchunas commented: “The bogeyman is gone.. That’s the vibe rn on CT and in the price action today. I get it too, that big daily dump [at 10am] seemed to kill every rally and everyone’s spirit. Is eliminating it enough for a sustained rebound? I guess we’ll find out.”

    That distinction drew pushback. Monad founder Keone Hon said the theory does not hold up because a short futures hedge implies someone else is short futures and, on average, must hedge elsewhere, preserving the market-wide delta balance. Dave Weisberger also argued the claim does not hold “over any substantial time frame,” noting that futures converge to spot at expiry.

    Park did not dispute the accounting identity. What he disputed was whether that identity settles the practical question of how long trades can persist inside the system’s regulatory carve-outs. “To be clear, I don’t subscribe to the conspiracy theory that APs suppress price,” he wrote. “The conspiracy theory that I subscribe to, if there is one to be had, is that with infinite duration at zero cost of carry, funny things can happen.”

    Leading on-chain analyst James “Checkmate” Check agreed: “Jane Street didn’t suppress the Bitcoin price folks. HODLers all did. It’s just not that hard, stop summoning your inner salty goldbug but blaming manipulators. People. Sold. A. Fucktonne. Of. Spot. Bitcoin.”

    At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,883.

    Bitcoin must close above the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’

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    Bitcoin futures positioning among non-commercial traders is swinging sharply toward net long exposure, a move technical analyst Tom McClellan (editor of The McClellan Market Report) says has arrived “with some urgency” in the latest weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report and one that has coincided with notable market outcomes in prior, similarly extreme episodes.

    Sharing a chart of Bitcoin futures (price on a log scale) alongside non-commercial net positioning, McClellan argued that in Bitcoin’s case, large speculators effectively function as the “smart money” cohort, because the market lacks the typical commercial hedger presence seen in traditional commodity futures.

    “The non-commercial traders of Bitcoin futures are usually the smart money,” McClellan wrote. “This week’s COT Report shows that they are moving net long with some urgency. Look back at what the last two similar excursions led to. But remember, this is ‘a condition, not a signal’.”

    Bitcoin COT data | Source: X @McClellanOsc

    Why Non-Commercials Matter In Bitcoin Futures

    McClellan later expanded on how he frames the CFTC’s weekly report, which breaks futures positioning into commercials, non-commercials, and non-reportables. In corn, for example, commercials might be producers or end users; in Bitcoin, he says that category is thin. “In Bitcoin, there are hardly any traders who qualify as Commercial traders,” McClellan wrote. “So in an unusual circumstance, the Non-commercial traders fill the role of being the smart money.”

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    That distinction matters because COT is not about absolute long or short interest, every futures contract has a long and a short by definition, but about who is on each side. “Every futures contract is simultaneously one long and one short position, held by different parties. So the number of longs will always equal the number of shorts,” he wrote. “What matters is who holds the positions.”

    McClellan also cautioned against importing equity-market intuition about short interest into futures positioning. “So a large short position in a stock represents potential energy which could get converted into price movements via short covering,” he wrote. “COT data don’t do that. They just represent expert opinion.”

    The core dispute in the X thread wasn’t whether COT can be useful, but how to interpret timing. Trader toni (@tonitrades_) agreed the dataset has value but questioned whether futures positioning simply follows spot momentum. “COT data has historically been a solid indicator, no argument there,” toni wrote. “But non-commercial positioning often lags spot market moves by weeks. By the time futures traders pile in, the initial momentum is usually priced in already.”

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    McClellan pushed back on that sequencing. “I think you meant that their positioning PRECEDES price moves sometimes by weeks,” he replied, underscoring his view that positioning extremes can show up ahead of meaningful market moves, though not on a predictable schedule.

    That’s where the thread landed: with an emphasis on uncertainty. Jim Osman (@EdgeCGroup) summed it up succinctly: “Timing still uncertain.” McClellan agreed. “Exactly, hence my admonition.”

    In his longer explanation, McClellan reiterated that most weeks the COT report has no actionable message, but that extremes can be informative with a crucial caveat. “A lot of the time there is no useful message in the COT data for each futures contract,” he wrote.

    “But when an extreme develops like now in Bitcoin, then we can get useful information. But as with any overbought or oversold reading on any indicator, COT data only reflect a ‘condition’ not a signal. The data will not tell you when that condition is going to matter, only that it should matter, sometime.”

    At press time, BTC traded at $65,663.

    Bitcoin price chart
    Bitcoin must reclaim the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • Bitcoin Liquidity Battles Heat Up As Demand Shows First Positive Print

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    Bitcoin remains range-bound as liquidity clears on both sides, keeping price action indecisive. After months of weakness, demand has finally turned positive, hinting that selling is easing and structural accumulation may be returning.

    BTC Stays Range-Bound Amid Active Liquidity Clearing

    Bitcoin remains locked in a range-bound state, characterized by a lack of directional commitment. Currently, the price is actively engaged in clearing liquidity on both sides of the spread. This creates a market environment where expansion is met with selling pressure, while price dips are swiftly absorbed by buyers, trapping the asset in a tug-of-war.

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    According to Columbus, market liquidity remains exceptionally well-defined both above and below the current price levels. This structure reinforces the ongoing choppy environment, as the market seems content to bounce between established pockets of orders. In such a scenario, the data suggests that patience is the most valuable asset for traders.

    Source: Chart from Columbus on X

    From this juncture, the market’s trajectory depends on how it reacts after the nearby liquidity is purged. If Bitcoin begins to find acceptance above the current range following a liquidity sweep, the probability shifts toward a bullish expansion, triggering a move into higher upside pockets.

    Conversely, if the attempt to gain acceptance fails after a sweep, the market remains vulnerable to further downside. This could result in additional sweeping of lower liquidity levels before any sustained recovery can materialize. Until then, the prevailing goal remains a technical clean-up of liquidity before the next major trend is established.

    Bitcoin Demand Turns Positive After Months Of Weakness

    CryptosRus recently highlighted that after nearly three months of persistent weakness, Bitcoin’s apparent demand has finally turned back above zero, currently sitting around +1,200 BTC. This marks a notable shift in investors’ sentiment and action in a market struggling with heightened volatility. 

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    Back in December, demand had bottomed near -154,000 BTC, a quantity that helps explain the sluggish price action that persisted in the following weeks. Since then, the pressure has been quietly easing. Selling activity is slowing, and structural accumulation is beginning to re-emerge, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics.

    It’s important to understand what this metric represents, which is whether long-term holders are absorbing new supply. When demand is deeply negative, the market tends to struggle. Conversely, when the metric turns positive, it suggests that buying activity is rebuilding, creating conditions for a healthier market structure.

    That said, the market is not out of the woods yet. A single positive print does not confirm a trend reversal. However, if this recovery in demand persists, it is often one of the earliest indicators that the market is transitioning from a distribution phase back toward accumulation, setting the stage for potential sustained strength in the weeks ahead.

    Bitcoin
    BTC trading at $68,212 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Godspower Owie

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  • The Great Bitcoin Handover: $8.2 Billion BTC Swamps Binance As Retail Momentum Fades

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    Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $69,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to dominate the short-term market structure. After multiple failed attempts to establish acceptance above this key psychological threshold, price action reflects a defensive environment marked by reduced risk appetite and elevated volatility. Traders remain cautious, with liquidity conditions tightening and momentum favoring sellers rather than sustained accumulation.

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    New on-chain data shared by analyst Maartunn adds another layer to the current landscape. According to his insights, Bitcoin whales are firmly dominating the market structure at this stage of the cycle. Over the past 30 days alone, approximately $8.24 billion worth of whale-held BTC has flowed into Binance, marking the highest level of large-holder inflows to the exchange in the last 14 months. Such a concentration of activity suggests that major participants are actively repositioning.

    The data also underscores Binance’s continued role as the primary liquidity venue for large-scale transactions. When whale flows accelerate toward exchanges at this magnitude, it often signals heightened strategic activity — whether for distribution, hedging, or tactical allocation. As Bitcoin consolidates below resistance, the behavior of these dominant market participants may play a decisive role in shaping the next directional move.

    Whale Dominance Intensifies As Retail Momentum Cools

    Maartunn further detailed the 30-day flow breakdown, offering a clearer view of how market participation is evolving. Over the past month, whale inflows to Binance have reached $8.24 billion and continue to trend higher. In comparison, retail inflows total approximately $11.91 billion but have begun to flatten. As a result, the retail-to-whale ratio currently stands at 1.45 and is steadily compressing.

    Binance Whale to Exchange Flow | Source: CryptoQuant

    Although retail participation remains visible, its momentum is cooling. The pace of smaller deposits has slowed, suggesting declining conviction or reduced speculative activity among short-term traders. In contrast, whale deposits have increased consistently over the same period, indicating that larger entities are either actively positioning or reallocating capital with greater urgency.

    This dynamic is narrowing the gap between large and small participants on the exchange. When whale flows accelerate while retail flows plateau, market structure tends to become more top-heavy, with price increasingly influenced by institutional-scale actors rather than fragmented retail activity.

    The key takeaway is clear: large players are becoming more dominant on Binance, while smaller participants are gradually losing relative influence. In the current environment, Bitcoin’s next directional move may depend more heavily on whale strategy than retail sentiment.

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    Bitcoin Tests Critical Support As Downtrend Accelerates

    Bitcoin’s 3-day chart reflects a decisive loss of momentum following the rejection near the $120,000 region in late 2025. Since that peak, price structure has transitioned into a clear corrective phase characterized by lower highs and accelerating downside pressure. The most recent leg lower shows a sharp breakdown from the $90,000–$95,000 consolidation zone, with BTC now hovering around the $68,000 area.

    BTC testing critical demand | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC testing critical demand | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    Technically, Bitcoin is trading below the shorter-term moving average, which has rolled over and is sloping downward, reinforcing near-term bearish momentum. The intermediate moving average is flattening and beginning to turn lower, signaling weakening trend strength. Meanwhile, the long-term average remains upward sloping but sits well below current price levels, suggesting that while the macro structure has not fully collapsed, the market is in a transitional phase.

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    Volume expanded noticeably during the recent selloff, indicating active distribution rather than a passive drift lower. However, the latest candles show some stabilization near the $65,000–$70,000 support region, an area that previously acted as a breakout zone earlier in the cycle.

    A sustained reclaim of the $75,000–$80,000 range would be required to restore bullish structure. Failure to hold current levels could expose deeper retracement toward long-term trend support.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Bitcoin Consolidating In A Triangle—Is A 15% Move Next?

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    A cryptocurrency analyst has highlighted how Bitcoin has been trading inside a Triangle that could set up a 15% move for the asset.

    Bitcoin Is Potentially Consolidating Inside A Symmetrical Triangle

    In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a technical analysis (TA) pattern that Bitcoin has been trading inside recently. The pattern in question is a “Triangle,” which is a type of consolidation channel that, as its name suggests, has a triangular shape.

    The pattern is characterized by two converging trendlines. The lower of these is considered likely to be a point of support for the price, while the upper one that of resistance. A break out of either of these bounds can imply a continuation of trend in that direction.

    Triangles can be of a few different types based on the orientation of the trendlines with respect to each other and the graph axes. In an Ascending Triangle, the upper level is parallel to the time-axis. Similarly, the lower level being parallel creates a Descending Triangle.

    When both trendlines approach each other at a roughly equal and opposite slope, the pattern formed is known as a “Symmetrical Triangle.” The Triangle shared by Martinez that Bitcoin has been trading inside is the closest to this type.

    Below is a chart that shows the trajectory in cryptocurrency’s hourly price inside the pattern at the time of the post.

    As is visible in the graph, the 1-hour Bitcoin price found a bounce from the lower level of the triangular channel shortly before the post. Since then, however, BTC has seen some decline, which has taken it below the support line. This could be a potential indication that a breakout is occurring.

    In the post, Martinez had noted that the Triangle could set up a potential 15% move for the asset. This figure is based on the fact that Triangle breakouts are generally assumed to end up being of the same length as the height of the channel at the point where the trendlines are the furthest apart.

    If the latest price drop indeed reflects a break out of the pattern for Bitcoin, then this 15% move could possibly follow to the downside. Symmetrical Triangles tend to have an equal probability of a breakout occurring in either direction, since there is roughly an equal bias both up and down. This time, however, it would appear that the bearish direction might be the one in store for BTC.

    BTC Price

    Bitcoin has dropped to the $66,300 mark following its drop over the past day.

    Bitcoin Price Chart

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    Keshav Verma

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  • Bitcoin May Gain If AI Job Losses Trigger Bank Stress, Hayes Says

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    Arthur Hayes has issued a stark market warning: he sees a growing split between his preferred risk gauge, Bitcoin, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 as a signal that credit stress may be building under the surface.

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    Hayes, a co-founder and former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, calls Bitcoin a “fiat liquidity fire alarm” — an asset that reacts quickly when credit conditions change.

    A Warning From Market Signals

    When two assets that often moved together start to pull apart, traders take notice. Hayes believes that a gap like this deserves investigation because it could point to trouble in bank balance sheets or in the flow of lending.

    He argues the move is not about one stock or one trade; it is about the plumbing of credit and how fast liquidity can dry up when things turn.

    Source: Arthur Hayes

    How AI Job Cuts Could Ripple Through Credit

    Reports note that companies cited AI as a reason for thousands of layoffs in recent years, with an outplacement firm counting roughly 55,000 cuts in 2025 that were tied to AI. Much of that hit was inside tech.

    Hayes sketches a rough scenario: a sizable drop in knowledge-worker employment would weaken mortgage and consumer credit repayment, which could then shave bank equity and tighten lending.

    The numbers he offers are approximate and built on multiple assumptions, but they are intended to show how a shock to white-collar paychecks could cascade into the credit system.

    Source: Arthur Hayes

    Expectations About Central Bank Action

    Hayes expects a policy response if banks start to fail and credit freezes. He argues the Federal Reserve would step in with fresh liquidity, and that more money creation would follow — a move he says would be favorable for Bitcoin’s price outlook.

    That scenario has been a recurring theme in his commentary; past essays and posts have linked anticipated Fed liquidity to sharp rallies in crypto markets.

    BTCUSD currently trading at $67,298. Chart: TradingView

    Altcoin Bets And Fund Positioning

    His fund, Maelstrom, is said to plan staking or stablecoin deployments into privacy-focused and exchange-native plays once liquidity policy shifts occur, naming Zcash and Hyperliquid as examples. That kind of tactical stance is meant to profit from a short-term surge in risk assets after a policy pivot.

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    A Measured View

    This is a dramatic chain of events: AI job losses lead to credit losses, which cause bank stress, which forces the central bank to expand money supply, which lifts Bitcoin.

    Each link is plausible, but none is guaranteed. Some of Hayes’ figures are rough estimates meant to illustrate risk rather than to act as a precise forecast.

    Market history shows that central banks do sometimes step in, and that policy moves can power asset rallies, but outcomes depend on timing, scale and public confidence — factors that are hard to predict in advance.

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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    Christian Encila

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  • Bitcoin Price To Bottom At $45K? On-Chain Indicator Says Yes

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    The Bitcoin price remains in a fragile phase in its broader market structure, alternating between recovery attempts and lingering macro uncertainty. Structurally, the market is in a transitional state, as it leaves euphoric expansion but is not yet fully in capitulation.

    Ultimately, current price action reflects a tug of war between long-term conviction holders and short-term speculative flows. Nonetheless, on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency is likely to embark on more trips to the downside.

    CVDD: Bitcoin’s Compass to Cycle Lows Since 2012

    In a recent post on the X platform, market analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the Cumulative Value – Days Destroyed (CVDD) has identified Bitcoin’s bottom since 2012. According to the crypto pundit, the metric is one of the most respected long-term on-chain indicators for identifying structural lows, and its current value is $45,225.

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    Launched by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, CVDD is a long-term Bitcoin valuation metric designed to identify major market bottoms by analyzing the behaviour of long-term holders. To understand CVDD,  one needs to recognize the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). 

    CDD is every Bitcoin accumulated that remains unmoved in a wallet. Now, CVDD tracks the cumulative historical value of destroyed coin days and adjusts it into a valuation model to produce a price level that historically aligns with the major Bitcoin cycle bottom.

    Since 2012, CVDD has consistently marked major Bitcoin price bottoms with remarkable accuracy. The model essentially measures when older, long–held coins are spent. Because long-term holders tend to distribute near cycle tops and accumulate during deep bear phases.

    Is Bitcoin Sitting On A Hidden Safety Net?

    Over time, CVDD has acted as a floor beneath price during severe drawdowns. In past cycles, including the 2015 bear market bottom, the 2018 capitulation, and the 2022 sell-off, the Bitcoin price often approached or briefly fell below the CVDD line before staging long-term recoveries. 

    Source: @ali_charts on X

    Currently, CVDD sits at $45,225, a level that represents what many would consider a deep value zone within the current market structure. It does not necessarily imply that price must fall to this level, but rather that it serves as a historically significant structural support if broader market conditions further deteriorate. 

    When BTC trades comfortably above CVDD,  it typically signals that the market remains in a healthier macro position. Meanwhile, when the Bitcoin price compresses towards it, sentiment often becomes pessimistic, and long-term accumulation tends to intensify.

    As Bitcoin consolidates within its current range, it might be helpful to monitor whether the price maintains sufficient distance above the $45,225 CVDD level. A decisive move toward it could signal deeper corrective pressure, while sustained strength above it reinforces the argument that the broader cycle remains structurally intact.

    As of this writing,  BTC is valued at around $70,000, reflecting a modest price increase of nearly 2% in the past day.

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    Bitcoin Price
    The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

     

    Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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    Opeyemi Sule

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  • Litecoin Closes Bullish — $57 Break Could Ignite Next Leg Up

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    Litecoin has closed the daily session on a bullish note, signaling renewed short-term momentum as price presses against a key resistance level. With $57 now acting as the immediate barrier, a decisive breakout and sustained hold above this zone could open the door for the next leg higher, potentially accelerating upside toward the mid-$60s.

    Bullish Daily Close Signals Early Strength

    Providing a daily technical outlook on Litecoin, crypto analyst CryptoWzrd noted that LTC closed the session with a bullish daily candle, largely mirroring Bitcoin’s upward movement. The positive close signals improving short-term momentum, but the expert cautioned that broader continuation will require confirmation from additional market factors, particularly the LTCBTC pair.

    Related Reading: Litecoin Structure Intact, But $63 Remains The Line Bulls Must Defend

    Although Litecoin printed a constructive candle, LTCBTC closed indecisively, reflecting hesitation in Litecoin’s relative strength against Bitcoin. Sustained upside for LTC will likely depend on a shift toward clear bullish sentiment in LTCBTC, as that would confirm capital rotation and stronger underlying demand.

    From a structural perspective, CrytoWzrd emphasized that one more strong bullish daily candle from the current level is needed to validate a breakout above the daily lower-high trendline. If such confirmation occurs, Litecoin could transition into a more established bullish phase, with the $68 resistance level emerging as the next key upside target above the $56 zone. A stable and sustained move beyond resistance would further strengthen the case for trend continuation.

    Until that higher-timeframe breakout is confirmed, the analyst plans to focus on lower-timeframe setups, particularly over the weekend. His approach remains tactical, looking for quick scalp opportunities while waiting for a more mature chart structure before engaging in larger directional trades.

    $57: Litecoin Intraday Decision Zone

    The analyst went on to explain that Litecoin’s intraday structure is currently pressing against the key $57 resistance zone, a level that now acts as a short-term decision point for price. A clean and sustained hold above this area would signal strength and open the path toward $64, with the potential for further extension if momentum accelerates.

    Related Reading: Litecoin 2M Bollinger Band Width Hits New Lows, CMT-Certified Analyst Reveals What It Means

    He emphasized that simply wicking above resistance will not be enough. What’s needed is a stable bullish structure, ideally supported by rising volume and constructive follow-through, before considering a long position. Such confirmation would indicate that buyers are in control rather than the move being a temporary liquidity sweep.

    At the same time, he noted that Bitcoin’s direction will likely dictate whether this breakout gains traction. Litecoin continues to follow broader market sentiment, meaning BTC’s strength could act as a catalyst for further gains. Until a mature and well-defined intraday structure forms, patience remains essential before engaging the next trade.

    Litecoin

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    Godspower Owie

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  • Bitcoin May Already Be Entering Crypto Winter, Researchers Warn

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    Bitcoin’s recent slide has left traders squinting at charts and asking the same blunt question: correction or crash? Prices have tumbled sharply, but some market watchers still see this as a deep pullback inside a longer uptrend. Others warn the data points to something colder.

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    Price Decline And Hard Numbers

    According to XWIN Research’s CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin has fallen about 46% from a peak near $126,000 and now trades around $67,900 after five straight months of losses.

    The Fear & Greed Index sits at 14 — a reading labeled Extreme Fear. Reports note that net realized losses recently hit over $13 billion, a level that matched the worst stretches of the 2022 slump.

    In 2024, roughly $10 billion of inflows helped lift market cap. Then in 2025, more than $300 billion flowed in while the overall market value shrank. That odd mix of heavy inflows and falling market cap suggests selling pressure is higher than fresh buying.

    Capital Flows Versus Price Action

    Based on reports, the capital flow numbers are the most awkward fact for bulls. Money moved in, but value fell. Who was selling into that demand? Large holders, paper traders, or complex derivatives desks might have taken profits or hedged positions.

    The data alone doesn’t name the seller, but the pattern is a red flag. On-chain measures also reveal shrinking realized gains even as prices remained far above prior bear-era levels. That tends to weaken the internal strength of the market over time.

    Sentiment And Historical Echoes

    Some traders point to a quirk of memory: high nominal prices make pain feel milder. People don’t want to relive the chaos of 2022. Reports say the launch of spot ETFs and deeper institutional access have changed the market’s plumbing, and that gives many confidence.

    Bitcoin is now trading at $67,918. Chart: TradingView

    Yet sentiment readings at extreme fear often show up near capitulation points. It’s worth remembering that in 2022 realized losses peaked about five months before the market bottom, which means big losses can precede a final low by a long stretch.

    Technical Patterns And The Bigger Picture

    Bitcoin posted four consecutive losing months and a 41% decline across that stretch — a streak last seen during 2018 rather than 2022. That pattern matters because similar sequences have led to extended downturns in the past.

    Related Reading

    Bitcoin At A Crossroads As XWIN Flags Early Signs Of Crypto Winter

    For XWIN Research, the message is simple: price alone does not define the cycle. What matters is who is buying, who is selling, and whether demand can absorb supply without market value shrinking.

    Right now, that balance looks strained. Until inflows begin translating into sustained market cap growth and realized losses cool meaningfully, the firm believes the market should be treated with caution rather than optimism. Winter may not have fully arrived, but based on the data, the temperature is clearly dropping.

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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    Christian Encila

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  • How Much Would You Have If You Put $500 In Bitcoin In 2014 Vs. XRP?

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    XRP and Bitcoin (BTC) were pitted against each other in a recent analysis, with market expert X Finance Bull revealing what early investors could have gained if they had invested $500 into both XRP and BTC in 2014. The analysis compares the performance of both cryptocurrencies over the years, highlighting the factors behind XRP’s growth and sustained momentum.

    What $500 In Bitcoin And XRP in 2014 Is Worth Today

    A new analysis by X Finance Bull reveals the dramatic growth potential of early investments in Bitcoin and XRP. According to the report, a $500 investment in XRP at the 2014 lows would be worth approximately $255,000 today. He compares XRP’s gains with those of Bitcoin, noting that if investors had bet the same amount in BTC in 2014, their investments would have grown to around $133,000. 

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    These figures suggest that XRP outperformed Bitcoin by more than twice over the same period, delivering a 511-fold return, compared to BTC’s 266-fold gain. During that time, XRP’s performance benefited not only from early, steady adoption and speculative interest but also from the continued development of its underlying payment system. 

    Over the years, XRP has moved beyond a purely speculative asset, gaining more traction as it evolves into a potential global settlement layer. Sharing similar sentiments, X Finance Bull highlighted how XRP’s infrastructure developments have significantly supported its significant price growth today. He noted that the cryptocurrency has seen major progress in areas such as Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), banking licenses, and enterprise-level adoption. 

    Notably, XRP Spot ETFs officially launched in November 2025, attracting massive inflows that have significantly boosted demand for XRP among institutional investors. In addition, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has conditionally approved Ripple’s application to establish a national trust bank charter. All of these developments have contributed to XRP’s price growth over the past few months. 

    In his post, X Finance Bull suggested that investors who held onto their XRP positions through the volatile years “know why they held.” Following the cryptocurrency’s dramatic rally above $3, many investors reaped the rewards of staying invested from its lows and trusting in its potential for future price appreciation. 

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    From 2018 to 2025, XRP struggled with a lawsuit filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). During those years of legal turmoil, many investors continued to hold onto their XRP despite the uncertainty and price stagnancy. 

    Following Ripple’s legal win, XRP surpassed $3 in 2025, marking its first break above that level since 2018. Compared to XRP, Bitcoin has also experienced significant growth in the past few years. After crossing the $100,000 threshold in 2024, BTC continued its surge into 2025, finally hitting a peak above $126,000 in October.

    BTC trading at $66,670 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Scott Matherson

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  • Top Analyst Says ‘Paper Bitcoin’ Is Driving The Market, Not The 21 Million Supply Cap

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    A new theory circulating in the crypto market is challenging how investors interpret Bitcoin’s recent price decline. In a post shared on X (formerly Twitter), market analyst Crypto Rover argued that Bitcoin is no longer trading as a simple supply-and-demand asset, and that this structural shift is a major reason behind the current sell-off.

    A ‘Parallel Financial Layer’

    Rover’s central claim is that although Bitcoin’s on-chain supply cap of 21 million coins has not changed, the way Bitcoin is traded in modern financial markets has effectively diluted its scarcity. 

    According to him, focusing only on spot buying and selling misses what is really driving price action today. BTC, he says, no longer moves primarily based on physical ownership of coins, but on activity in massive derivatives markets that now dominate price discovery.

    Related Reading

    As the analyst highlighted, in Bitcoin’s early years, its valuation rested on two fundamental principles: a strictly fixed supply of 21 million coins and the impossibility of duplicating that supply. 

    These features made Bitcoin uniquely scarce, with prices largely determined by real buyers and sellers exchanging coins in the spot market. However, over time, Rover asserts that a “parallel financial layer” developed on top of the blockchain itself.

    This financial layer includes cash‑settled futures, perpetual swaps, options contracts, prime brokerage lending, wrapped Bitcoin products such as WBTC, and total return swaps. 

    None of these instruments create new Bitcoin on the blockchain, but they do create synthetic exposure to Bitcoin’s price. According to Rover, this synthetic exposure now plays a central role in determining how Bitcoin trades.

    As derivatives trading volumes grew and eventually surpassed spot market activity, Rover argues that Bitcoin’s price stopped responding mainly to on‑chain coin movement. 

    Instead, prices increasingly reflect leverage, trader positioning, margin stress, and liquidation dynamics. In practical terms, this means Bitcoin can move sharply even when there is little actual buying or selling of real coins.

    Why Bitcoin Moves Without Spot Selling

    Rover also highlights the concept of synthetic supply, explaining that a single Bitcoin can now be used simultaneously across multiple financial products. 

    One coin may back an exchange-traded fund (ETF) share while also supporting a futures contract, a perpetual swap hedge, options exposure, a broker loan, or a structured investment product. 

    While this does not increase Bitcoin’s actual supply, it dramatically increases the amount of tradable exposure linked to that same coin. When this synthetic exposure grows large compared with the real supply of Bitcoin, the market’s perception of scarcity weakens. 

    This phenomenon, often described as synthetic float expansion, changes how prices behave. Rallies are more easily shorted using derivatives, leverage builds rapidly, liquidations become more frequent, and volatility increases. 

    According to Rover, this structural shift makes price movements feel disconnected from on‑chain fundamentals. Yet, the analyst notes that the leading cryptocurrency is not unique in this regard. 

    Similar transitions occurred in markets such as gold, silver, oil, and major equity indices. In each case, once derivatives markets overtook physical trading, price discovery moved away from supply alone and became increasingly influenced by financial positioning.

    This framework also helps explain why Bitcoin sometimes declines even in the absence of heavy spot selling. Price pressure can come from forced liquidations of leveraged long positions, aggressive futures shorting, options hedging activity, or ETF arbitrage trades. 

    Importantly, Rover emphasizes that Bitcoin’s hard cap has not changed at the protocol level. The 21 million limit remains intact on the blockchain. 

    What has changed, he argues, is the financial structure surrounding Bitcoin. He concluded his analysis by asserting that in today’s markets, “paper Bitcoin” has become more influential than physical ownership, and that dominance is playing a key role in the market’s recent instability.

    The 1-D chart shows BTC’s recovery above $70,000 on Friday. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Ronaldo Marquez

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  • Bitcoin Shaken By Major Capitulation Event As Price Drops To $65K

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    They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that’s not just a metaphor, it’s a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.

    Christian’s journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).

    Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling – right up his alley!

    So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he’s one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).

    Think Christian’s all work and no play? Not a chance! When he’s not at his computer, you’ll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.

    Speaking of chill, Christian’s got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.

    Here’s the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day – and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.

    Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors – and bosses – he deeply respects.

    So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.

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    Christian Encila

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  • Why Gold & Silver’s All-Time Highs Are Very Bullish For Bitcoin And Altcoins

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    Gold and silver have recently dominated headlines, outperforming both Bitcoin and altcoins in the broader crypto market. While both precious metals recorded new all-time highs in 2026, many altcoins failed to reach similar milestones. Bitcoin, by contrast, did achieve an ATH in 2025; however, following that peak, its price retraced sharply to new lows. With this in mind, analysts argue that the strength of gold and silver does not pose a threat to digital assets. Instead, they interpret the divergence as a major bullish signal for Bitcoin and altcoins. 

    Gold And Silver ATH Signals Bitcoin And Altcoins Upside

    Crypto market expert Mark Chadwick delivered a detailed analysis of precious metals and cryptocurrencies on X this week, pointing to what he calls “the biggest price divergence” ever recorded between gold and Bitcoin. His chart and analysis suggest that a strong performance in gold could be a major indicator for a potential rally in cryptocurrencies. 

    Related Reading

    Chadwick noted that gold has surged aggressively, reaching an ATH of over $5,600 in January 2026. This price rally has pushed the metal into extreme overbought levels on higher timeframes. In contrast, Bitcoin is facing prolonged weakness and negative sentiment in 2026, despite reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. 

    Source: X

    The analyst suggested that this performance imbalance has reached levels that typically signal a major market shift. Gold and silver have been boosted by factors such as central bank accumulation, inflation hedging, and geopolitical pressures. At the same time, Bitcoin has been weighed down by tighter liquidity, reduced investor interest, and risk-off conditions. As a result,  traditional safe-haven assets have entered overbought territory, leaving BTC and altcoins largely overlooked. 

    Chadwick argues that markets move in cycles driven by sentiment and positioning. When one asset becomes excessively overbought, returns diminish, and capital seeks higher upside elsewhere. In past macro cycles, periods of strong performance in gold and silver have often been followed by capital rotating into higher-risk assets once fear subsides. 

    Based on his analysis, Bitcoin’s current positioning reflects exhaustion rather than structural weakness. Chadwick believes that when manipulation ends and capital starts flowing out of gold and silver into BTC, it could set the stage for a sharp rebound in the leading cryptocurrency. Since altcoins typically follow Bitcoin’s performance, the analyst expects that once Bitcoin regains momentum, some of that profit could also rotate into select altcoins, fueling a price rally. 

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    How High Bitcoin And Altcoins Could Rally 

    Chadwick has stated that Bitcoin’s price could easily surge 10x as capital flows back into it and market sentiment and liquidity improve. However, the chart outlines a short-term rally, projecting a 91.60% rise to $170,000 from the $82,000 region. The analyst also predicted that altcoins could rise 50-100x, reflecting a staggering potential for gains in the crypto market. 

    He concluded his analysis by emphasizing that smart money knows massive returns often come from diversification. From this perspective, the current ATHs of gold and silver do not undermine cryptocurrencies but signal an upcoming shift in capital. 

    Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
    BTC falls to $82,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

    Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Sandra White

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  • Why Is Bitcoin Lagging Gold And Silver? Anthony Pompliano Explains

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    Gold and silver have gone on a record-setting tear in recent months, ripping through fresh all-time highs, while Bitcoin has been stuck grinding sideways in a tight $84,000–$94,000 box since mid-November. In a January 27 video posted to X, Anthony Pompliano argued the gap is less about a single catalyst and more about shifting demand drivers, market structure, and a new fight for attention and risk capital.

    Pompliano framed the disconnect with blunt scorekeeping. “We have gold, which is up 80% in the last year. Silver’s up 250%, copper’s up 40%, and platinum’s up nearly 200% over the last 12 months,” he said, before turning to the contrast: “At the same exact time, Bitcoin is down 16% over the last year.”

    In his telling, the metals aren’t moving as a monolith, they’re responding to different sources of demand. Gold, he said, is benefiting from central banks accumulating reserves and what he described as “a definitization of the global economy,” where flows rotate out of dollars not into other fiat, but into gold.

    Silver, by contrast, is less about store-of-value positioning and more about industrial pull. Pompliano pointed to defense equipment, AI hardware, and self-driving cars as examples of end-demand, arguing that “the world is building things again” and that re-industrialization makes silver a direct beneficiary.

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    Copper and platinum, in his framework, are even cleaner industrial stories. Copper rides electrification (EVs, grid buildouts, renewables) and “significant industrial demand.” Platinum’s move, he argued, is supply constrained, describing “very, very low supply” that creates a market structure favorable to holders. Pompliano also highlighted what he called a rotation within metals where gold led, then silver, and more recently copper and platinum, a sequence he dubbed “the metals mania.”

    So Why Hasn’t Bitcoin Joined The Run?

    Pompliano’s first answer was structural: Wall Street’s adoption is changing who holds Bitcoin and how it trades. He described an “IPO moment of Bitcoin,” (referring to Jordy Visser’s theory), where long-term holders have been handing coins off to institutional players.

    In Pompliano’s view, some early holders owned Bitcoin precisely because it was “outside the system,” and the asset’s migration into mainstream finance may reduce enthusiasm from that cohort. He also pointed to public comments from Peter Thiel and others suggesting Bitcoin’s future may be less “asymmetric” than its early years.

    The second structural shift is the proliferation of financial instruments around BTC. “It used to be really hard to short Bitcoin. Well, now you can do it very simply,” Pompliano said, arguing that options and shorting change the market’s plumbing and dampen volatility. “Bitcoin used to be an 80 vol asset. Now it’s more like a 40 vol asset,” he added, positioning the trade-off as fewer parabolic upside phases but also fewer catastrophic drawdowns.

    From there, Pompliano moved to narrative demand — specifically, the idea that Bitcoin had been treated as a “chaos hedge.” He argued that recent perceptions of rising geopolitical stability have reduced the perceived need for that insurance bid, while central banks, with far larger pools of capital, continue to express their hedge preference through gold. “It seems like there is not as much of a bid for Bitcoin coming as this insurance hedge,” he said, stressing he viewed it as a flow and narrative issue rather than a loss of utility.

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    He made a similar point about inflation hedging, claiming disinflation has undercut one of Bitcoin’s most effective recent narratives. Citing Trueflation, Pompliano said the metric showed 1.2% inflation, “150 basis points lower than it was just 90 days ago,” and argued that AI and tariffs are deflationary forces. If investors don’t expect inflation to run hot, he reasoned, some capital simply won’t reach BTC.

    Finally, he argued Bitcoin is losing mindshare and speculative oxygen to AI and to a broader set of “risk-taking” outlets. “There is simply more competition,” Pompliano said, extending the idea beyond markets into an attention economy where every asset competes when users open a financial app and decide where to allocate leftover cash. In that framing, Bitcoin is no longer the default high-upside wager for younger participants; it’s competing with AI equities, prediction markets, and sports betting.

    Pompliano’s closing message was that laggards can catch up and that he sees Bitcoin as “more interesting sitting at $87,000 than it was at $126,000.” But he also cautioned that a lower-volatility, more institutional Bitcoin may demand a different temperament from holders. “If you actually get impatient, you’re going to be disappointed. You’re going to get shaken out,” he said, arguing that the trade increasingly resembles a waiting game rather than a yearly sprint.

    At press time, BTC traded at $88,131.

    Bitcoin still trades between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fib, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • Record Dormant Bitcoin Supply Enters Market — What’s Next?

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    According to on-chain trackers, a big wave of old Bitcoin has started moving after long dormancy. Coins that sat untouched for more than two years have been transferred in numbers larger than what was seen during past peaks in 2017 and 2021.

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    CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi said on-chain data shows that 2024 and 2025 marked the largest release of long-held Bitcoin supply ever recorded. He tracks “revived supply,” or coins that stayed dormant for more than two years before being moved.

    That kind of movement usually means deep-pocketed holders are changing their plans, not small traders chasing a quick gain.

    A Shift Without A Party

    Reports say this release of long-held supply arrived with little fanfare. There was no mass retail mania. Prices did not spike in a frenzy. Instead, the transfers came during a stretch when the market has been under steady pressure from broader financial stress.

    Some of those older coins were likely sold for profit. Some may have been moved for other reasons — custody upgrades, private trades, or to back financial products. On-chain signals show the coins moved, but they do not write the reasons on the blockchain.

    Source: CryptoQuant

    Long-Term Holders Change Course

    Based on reports from analysts tracking these flows, the pattern suggests a changing of the guard. Early adopters who held through multiple cycles and pointed to scarcity and self-control have been trimming positions.

    New buyers are appearing who watch price swings and macro headlines. Institutions, fresh large accounts, and price-driven traders are now shaping much of the market’s short-term activity.

    Global Risk Pressures Risk Assets

    Reports have linked recent weakness in Bitcoin to rising global risk. Research ties part of the pullback to tariff moves by US President Donald Trump, which have pushed investors away from risky assets.

    BTCUSD now trading at $88,992. Chart: TradingView

    Tariffs can dent corporate profits, stir up inflation uncertainty, and change how the market views future rates — all of which hits sentiment. When big markets wobble, crypto often follows. That pressure helps explain why long-held coins moved without the usual hype.

    New Buyers Step Forward

    According To on-chain and price data, institutions and new “whales” are stepping into the gaps left by sellers. Bitcoin has been trading near the high $80k range, with recent figures around $89,140 as markets test demand. The old holders may have taken gains, but the market did not collapse. That shows there is still appetite, even if it is different from the past.

    Related Reading

    This cycle feels different because selling came without euphoria, and buying looks more tactical. That does not mean the story is over. The market might be shifting toward price-sensitive participants and outside financial forces.

    Or the recent calm could be a pause before fresh buying. Either way, these on-chain moves matter. They change where the coins sit, and that changes how future price swings may play out.

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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    Christian Encila

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  • Bitcoin Supply Overhang Likely To Cap Rallies Above $98,400, Glassnode Says

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    On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out in a new report how Bitcoin is facing supply overhang beyond the $98,000 region.

    Bitcoin Could Find Resistance Beyond $98,000

    In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed about how the recent Bitcoin rally stalled near the Realized Price of the short-term holders (STHs). The “Realized Price” is an on-chain metric that tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network.

    The STH Realized specifically measures the average acquisition level of traders who purchased within the past 155 days. As the below chart shows, this indicator is located at $98,400 right now.

    This level is around where the recent recovery run hit an obstacle, potentially due to selling from underwater recent buyers who used the rally to exit near their break-even mark.

    Glassnode explained:

    The recent rejection near the Short-Term Holder cost basis at ~$98.4k mirrors the market structure observed in Q1 2022, where repeated failures to reclaim recent buyers’ cost basis prolonged consolidation.

    The STH Realized Price provides a look at the average break-even level of a broad section of the market. For a more granular look, another indicator called the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) exists.

    Bitcoin URPD

    From the chart of the Bitcoin URPD, it’s visible that a notable amount of the STH supply has a cost basis between the current level and $98,000 (colored in blue). This supply represents the tokens that were redistributed by top buyers into newer market participants during the price rally.

    Not all top buyers sold, however, as it’s apparent in the graph that at levels around and above $100,000, the long-term holder (LTH) supply is becoming a notable force (shaded in red).

    Coins count under the LTH cohort once they mature past the 155-day age bracket. The fact that LTH supply is building up at these levels suggests some bull market entrants are willing to hold.

    The analytics firm noted:

    This unresolved supply overhang remains a persistent source of sell pressure, likely to cap attempts above the $98.4k STH cost basis and the $100k level. A clean breakout would therefore require a meaningful and sustained acceleration in demand momentum.

    It now remains to be seen how Bitcoin’s upcoming price action would look, particularly in the context that major supply clusters are still sitting underwater.

    BTC Price

    Bitcoin has been following a downward trajectory since its rejection from the STH Realized Price as its value is now trading around $89,100.

    Bitcoin Price Chart

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    Keshav Verma

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  • Coinbase Exec Points Out The Big Difference Between Bitcoin And Central Banks

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    Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system remains widely misunderstood, even at the highest levels of policy and finance. That disconnect surfaced during a major international forum, prompting a pointed clarification from a Coinbase executive. The moment centered on a fundamental question with growing relevance: what truly separates Bitcoin from central banks?

    Bitcoin’s Structural Design Sets It Apart – Coinbase Executive

    During the World Economic Forum in Davos, where global policymakers and financial leaders were debating the future of money and tokenization, Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, responded to remarks made by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, who argued that central banks deserve greater trust than Bitcoin because they operate under democratic mandates and institutional oversight.

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    Armstrong’s response focused on how Bitcoin is designed. Bitcoin operates as a decentralized protocol with no issuing authority, no governing committee, and no single entity capable of altering its monetary rules. Its supply is fixed, its issuance is algorithmic, and its operation depends on a distributed network of participants rather than institutional oversight. This design makes Bitcoin structurally independent in a way no central bank can replicate.

    By contrast, central banks sit at the top of national monetary systems. They control currency issuance, influence interest rates, and adjust monetary policy in response to political and economic pressures. Even when described as “independent,” they remain tightly connected to governments and fiscal policy. Armstrong highlighted that this link introduces discretion, policy shifts, and long-term currency debasement through money creation—a vulnerability Bitcoin was explicitly built to avoid.

    This distinction becomes especially relevant during periods of aggressive deficit spending. Because Bitcoin’s supply cannot be expanded, it functions as a constraint rather than a tool. In Armstrong’s view, this makes Bitcoin a direct counterweight to systems where new money can be introduced at will, gradually reducing purchasing power over time. That structural constraint is the foundation of Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge during periods of uncertainty.

    Trust, Accountability, And Individual Choice

    The exchange also exposed a deeper disagreement about how trust is formed. Villeroy de Galhau emphasized trust in central banks as institutions backed by legal authority and democratic systems. Armstrong countered by reframing trust as something derived from transparency and verifiability rather than institutional reputation. 

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    Armstrong further positioned Bitcoin as an accountability mechanism. Because its supply cannot be adjusted to accommodate government spending, it imposes discipline by design. In this sense, Bitcoin functions less as a policy tool and more as a constraint—similar to how gold historically limited monetary excess. This characteristic has driven its growing perception as a store of value during times of economic uncertainty.

    Importantly, Armstrong did not frame the relationship between Bitcoin and fiat currencies as a zero-sum battle. Instead, he described it as a healthy competition that leaves the ultimate decision with individuals. Users can choose between systems: one based on institutional control and policy flexibility, and another based on fixed rules and decentralization.

    BTC struggles to hold $90,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

    Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Sandra White

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  • Tom Lee Still Sees Bitcoin At $250,000 But Warns 2026 Gets ‘Jagged’

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    Fundstrat’s Tom Lee reiterated his $250,000 Bitcoin target while cautioning that 2026 could be a “jagged” year for crypto adoption and a turbulent one for broader risk assets, framing any major pullback as a buying window rather than a signal to de-risk.

    Speaking on The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost in an interview released Jan. 20, Lee said he expects 2026 to ultimately “look like a continuation of the bull market that started in 2022,” but argued markets must first digest several transitions that could deliver a drawdown large enough to “feel like a bear market.”

    $250,000 Bitcoin Call Comes With A 2026 Warning

    Lee pointed to what he described as a “new Fed” dynamic, arguing markets tend to “test” a new chair and that the sequencing of identification, confirmation, and reaction can catalyze a correction. He also warned that the White House could become “more deliberate in picking winners and losers,” expanding the set of sectors, industries, and even countries “in the bullseye,” which he said is already visible in gold’s strength.

    Related Reading

    A third friction point, in his telling, is AI positioning: the market is still calibrating “how much is priced into AI,” from energy needs to data-center capacity, and that uncertainty could linger until other narratives take the baton.

    Pressed on magnitude, Lee said with regards to the S&P 500, the drawdown “could be 10%,” but also “could be 15% or 20%,” potentially producing a “round trip from the start of the year,” before finishing 2026 strong. He added that his institutional clients did not appear aggressively positioned yet, and flagged leverage as a tell: margin debt is at an all-time high, he said, but up 39% year-over-year—below the 60% pace he associates with local market peaks.

    For crypto, Lee leaned on a market-structure explanation for why gold outperformed: he said crypto tracked gold until Oct. 10, when the market suffered what he called “the single largest deleveraging event in the history of crypto,” “bigger than what happened in November 2022 around FTX.”

    After that, he said, Bitcoin fell more than 35% and Ethereum almost 50%, breaking the linkage. “Crypto has periodic deleveraging events,” Lee said. “It really impairs the market makers and the market makers are essentially the central bank of crypto. So many of the market makers I would say maybe half got wiped out on October 10th.”

    That fragility, he argued, doesn’t negate the “digital gold” framing so much as it limits who treats it that way today. “Bitcoin is digital gold,” Lee said, but added that the set of investors who buy that thesis “is not the same universe that owns gold.”

    Related Reading

    Over time, Lee expects the ownership base to broaden, though not smoothly. “Crypto still has a, I think, future adoption curve that’s higher than gold because more people own gold than own crypto,” he said. “But the path to getting that adoption rate higher is going to be very jagged. And I think 2026 will be a really important test because if Bitcoin makes a new all-time high, we know that that deleveraging event is behind us.”

    Within that framework, Lee reiterated his high-conviction upside call: “We think Bitcoin will make a new high this year,” he said, confirming a $250,000 target. He tied the thesis to rising “usefulness” of crypto, banks recognizing blockchain settlement and finality, and the emergence of natively crypto-scaled financial models.

    Lee cited Tether as a proof point, claiming it is expected to generate nearly $20 billion in 2026 earnings with roughly 300 employees, and argued that the profit profile illustrates why blockchain-based finance can look structurally different from legacy banking.

    Lee closed with advice that intentionally cuts against short-horizon reflexes. “Trying to time the market makes you an enemy of your future performance,” he said. “As much as I’m warning about 2026 and the possibility of a lot of turbulence, they should view the pullback as a chance to buy, not the pullback as a chance to sell.”

    At press time, Bitcoin traded at $89,287.

    Bitcoin couldn’t close above the 0.618 Fib, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • $790 Million In Crypto Longs Decimated As Bitcoin Plunges To $93,000

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    Bitcoin and the altcoins have plummeted during the past day, leading to the liquidation of a large amount of crypto longs in derivatives markets.

    Crypto Sector Has Seen A Notable Amount Of Liquidations In The Last Day

    According to data from CoinGlass, the past day’s volatility in the crypto market has been accompanied by a swath of liquidations. The “liquidation” of a contract occurs when it accumulates losses of a certain degree and is forcibly shut down by the exchange. In the digital asset sector, volatility tends to be high, so a large number of liquidations take place on a regular basis. The last 24 hours involved one such volatile event, as the table below depicts.

    In total, the crypto market has faced $874 million in liquidations within this window. Out of these, long contracts have made up for an overwhelming share: $788 million.

    The reason for liquidations being this lopsided naturally lies in the price action that has developed over the last day. Bitcoin saw a sudden drop from $95,500 to a low of $93,000, while Ethereum went from $3,350 to $3,200. In percentage terms, these drops aren’t too big, but the rapid nature of them is what triggered the liquidations.

    The source of the crash could lie in revitalized US-EU tariff tensions. As reported by Reuters, President Donald Trump vowed over the weekend to implement tariffs on eight European nations.

    Starting February 1st, goods from Denmark, Great Britain, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland will face an additional 10% import tariff. If the US isn’t allowed to acquire the Danish territory of Greenland, these tariffs will go up to 25% on June 1st.

    2025 already saw several events where tariff-related uncertainty affected the crypto market, so it’s not surprising to see that the latest news has also been accompanied by volatility. As is usually the case, the latest market volatility has led to Bitcoin-related contracts occupying a disproportionate share of liquidations.

    Bitcoin & Other Cryptos

    As is visible in the above heatmap, Bitcoin has seen liquidations of around $233 million in the past day. Ethereum, the next-ranked coin in this category, has witnessed $156 million in contracts being involved.

    From the altcoins, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin have ranked the highest with $61 million, $41 million, and $35 million in liquidations, respectively. SOL being ahead of XRP despite being smaller in market cap may be because of its 6% plunge being larger than the latter’s 4% drop.

    Bitcoin Price

    Bitcoin has seen a slight rebound from its low as the cryptocurrency’s price is now back at $93,100.

    Bitcoin Price Chart

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    Keshav Verma

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