Tag: BTC

Ostium Labs’ Market Outlook #55 argues that Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe bull structure survived last week’s volatility and now points “back to the highs,” provided spot holds above $107,000. “Whilst we trade above $107k, I think the next move is back to the highs, with $112k likely to act as local support,” the note states, adding that the firm still expects price to trade into “that confluence of overhead resistance at $133k by month-end.”

The team frames last week’s deleveraging as the “great reset,” contending that the largest liquidation event in crypto history removed excess leverage without breaking weekly structure. On the weekly chart, no major support was lost and the wick down to roughly $107,000 was reclaimed into a $115,000 close, which Ostium reads as confirmation that momentum remains bullish on higher timeframes. Invalidation is precise: “A weekly close below last week’s low is now the obvious invalidation… close through $107k… and we have a more pressing concern, where we undoubtedly then trade into $99k.”

On the daily, Ostium notes a classic sweep-and-reversal sequence. Price twice tagged the prior range high near $126.3k, failed to hold above $123.8k, and then “collapsed,” ultimately wicking into the 200-day moving average—an area the desk had flagged as a likely terminal level for any early-October capitulation.

The view from here is unambiguous: “Anyone expecting sub-$100k will remain sidelined for a long time—if you didn’t get it on the largest liquidation event in crypto history, I don’t think you’re getting it until we enter a bear market.” Tactical invalidation on this timeframe is a daily close below the 200-DMA, which would put the 360-DMA near $100,000 in play and constitute Ostium’s “line in the sand for a full-blown flip into bear market territory.”

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Path dependency matters for the upside call. Ostium expects prior highs around $112,000 to act as support and form a higher low, with “acceptance back above ~$116k” setting a rotation to the top of the range at $123.8k and then “price discovery beyond that.” The desk’s near-term timing is surprisingly punchy: “Gun to my head I think we trade $125k by early next week and $133k by month-end.”

For traders, the preferred long setup is early-week weakness into $110k–$112k to establish a higher low, using a daily close below $107k (hard stop $105k) as risk, and targeting at least $121k with scope for much higher. A counter-trend short, by contrast, would require a grind up into the $121k confluence, a rejection and daily close back below $118k, and then a fade into the $110k–$112k zone—only if the higher-low hasn’t already formed.

Positioning evidence, in Ostium’s view, buttresses the reset-then-extend thesis. The firm highlights obliterated open interest, Binance Net Longs back to “Liberation Day” lows, compressed three-month annualized basis, and fresh liquidation maps for one-week and one-month horizons—all consistent with a cleaner tape for trend continuation.

The calendar this week is dense but navigable: a speech-heavy week (Powell, Bailey, Lagarde), the NY Empire State Manufacturing print, the Philadelphia Fed survey, and US Industrial Production. Ostium’s framework treats these events as potential catalysts rather than trend definers; so long as $107,000 holds and $112,000 functions as a springboard, the structural bias remains higher toward $133,000.

At the core of the thesis is a binary investor psychology after the purge. “These sorts of events mark turning points: either you are now cemented in your belief that… the bear market has begun… or you are cemented in your belief that the leverage washout gives us the runway for higher for longer prices into Q1 next year,” Ostium writes. The desk is firmly in the latter camp, reiterating that Bitcoin “looks more bullish today than it did at the beginning of last week.”

Briefly beyond Bitcoin, Ostium’s cross-asset read tilts supportive for the crypto beta complex if near-term conditions align. For Ethereum, weekly structure “looks nothing like a top,” with a decisive close above trendline resistance and $4,400 expected to trigger an all-time-high breakout; the team believes “ETH trades through $4,950 within 10 days… toward $5,750 in November,” and sees the Q4 low as likely in.

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On ETH/BTC, the desk calls last week’s flush into 0.0319 a higher-low and anticipates ETH outperformance into year-end, contingent on reclaiming 0.0375 and eventually breaking the trendline—a dynamic that, if realized, could cap BTC dominance without undermining Bitcoin’s own trend. The DXY rally is viewed as late-stage: resistance near 100 and a looming rollover would reduce macro headwinds for risk assets.

For US equities, Ostium still expects “higher for longer,” eyeing fresh SPX highs by month-end and a strong November as buyback blackouts end and earnings season progresses; improving equity breadth tends to coincide with constructive crypto flows.

Finally, in “OTHERS,” the altcoin index printed a historic wick to the 360-week MA before reclaiming support; with derivatives positioning “utterly decimated,” Ostium now expects a higher local low, a November reclaim of the yearly open near $335bn, and, if confirmed, a push toward cycle and ATH resistance—conditions that usually track with a healthier, less fragile Bitcoin uptrend.

Taken together, the desk’s message is consistent across timeframes and assets: the reset did its job, the invalidation is clear at $107,000, $112,000 should be the pivot, and the upside waypoint is $133,000, with the macro calendar more likely to modulate the path than to derail the destination. As Ostium summarizes, “Whilst we trade above $107k… the next move is back to the highs.”

At press time, BTC traded at $111,509.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com