Opeyemi is a proficient writer and enthusiast in the exciting and unique cryptocurrency realm. While the digital asset industry was not his first choice, he has remained absolutely drawn since making a foray into the space over two years. Now, Opeyemi takes pride in creating unique pieces unraveling the complexities of blockchain technology and sharing insights on the latest trends in the world of cryptocurrencies.
Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.
Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.
When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.
Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K. Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.
Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.
Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.
Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.
Bitcoin is targeting the $118,000 level, reigniting bullish momentum and fueling speculation of a potential push toward a new all-time high. With buyers regaining control after recent volatility, this breakout could open the path toward $120,000 and beyond.
Pullback Seen As Final Shakeout Before Rally
Crypto VIP Signal, in a recent update, pointed out that Bitcoin experienced a sharp pullback yesterday after news of a rate cut, coupled with remarks from Jerome Powell, triggered a wave of volatility. The decline caught the attention of traders across the market, but the expert’s analysis suggests that this movement is more likely a final shakeout rather than the start of a broader correction.
Interestingly, despite the pullback, Bitcoin has quickly shown signs of resilience. This recovery suggests that the underlying demand for BTC remains intact, and market participants are still confident about its bullish trajectory.
Crypto VIP Signal emphasized that the most critical level to watch in the short term is $118,000. A successful breakout above this resistance would serve as a strong bullish confirmation, potentially accelerating the rally toward $120,000. If achieved, this would not only mark another key milestone but also signal that Bitcoin remains firmly within a bullish cycle, raising the likelihood of a new all-time high on the horizon.
Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Signal Possible Path To $120,000
Based on the latest BTC update from EGRAG CRYPTO, the bullish outlook for Bitcoin is being reinforced by key technical indicators. The report highlights that a decisive close above the middle upper section of the Bollinger Bands (BB) could be the catalyst needed to propel the price higher.
Analysts often interpret this technical formation as a sign of building momentum and can spark a breakout from a period of consolidation. If Bitcoin successfully achieves this, it would pave the way for a run toward the significant $120,000 resistance level.
The update paints a highly optimistic picture for the short term, suggesting that a new record could be within reach. According to EGRAG CRYPTO, should BTC manage to break through and sustain a price above $120,000 today, it may set a new all-time high. Basically, this milestone might trigger a fresh wave of investor excitement and market liquidity as the price moves into uncharted territory.
Despite the strong bullish sentiment, the analysis includes a critical warning for traders. The $117,300 mark is identified as a crucial level to watch. If the price encounters a strong rejection at this point, it could trigger a temporary reversal to the $113,300 support level.
Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a critical turning point, successfully flipping a key horizontal support zone that previously acted as resistance. With momentum now building, the focus has shifted to the next major test: the $117,000 resistance level. A decisive move above this threshold would not only confirm the continuation of the current rally but also set the stage for a potential run toward new highs.
Daily Support Flip Confirms Bullish Control
Alpha Crypto Signal, in a recent market update, pointed out that BTC is showing renewed strength on the daily timeframe. The leading cryptocurrency successfully flipped a key horizontal zone into support, a move that highlights growing buyer dominance in the market. This structural shift is seen as a positive development for bulls, laying the groundwork for further upside momentum.
With buyers firmly in control, Bitcoin’s price action is now being driven higher toward the previous swing high near $117,000. This level has emerged as the next significant hurdle for bulls, acting as a critical area where market sentiment could either extend the rally or spark profit-taking.
The analysis further noted that if Bitcoin manages to push above $117,000, the level itself could turn into an attractive area for potential short setups. However, such a strategy carries risks, as the invalidation point would be a decisive breakout above BTC’s all-time high.
Until then, $117,000 stands out as the key level of interest for market participants. How Bitcoin reacts in this zone will determine whether it consolidates, faces rejection, or surges higher. For traders, this level offers a critical point to evaluate possible entries, exits, and positioning as the next major move takes shape.
Bitcoin Struggles To Secure A Hold Above $116,000
According to a recent post by Crypto VIP Signal, Bitcoin is continuing its upward trajectory. However, the cryptocurrency has not yet been able to firmly hold above the $116,000 level, which suggests that while the overall trend is bullish, buyers have yet to fully overcome this significant hurdle.
Crypto VIP Signal’s analysis notes that the entire market is looking positive, but a temporary slowdown can be expected. This is primarily attributed to a decline in trading volume, which is a common occurrence on weekends as activity from institutional traders and large investors often lessens.
Given these conditions, Crypto VIP Signal predicts that Bitcoin will likely experience a period of sideways movement. The consolidation phase would allow the market to digest recent gains and build the necessary momentum to attempt another push past the $116,000 resistance.
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Bitcoin’s current rebound off the $107,200 low has sparked renewed debate over whether the market has already set its local bottom and is positioned to rally higher.. Independent analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) argues that the probability is “90%+” that the low has been planted, citing both price structure and his recurring “FOMC reversal confluence” framework as confirmation.
Analyst Claims 90% Chance The Bitcoin Bottom Is In
Astronomer, who publicly documented his short-term bearish call from $123,000 down to the $110,000–$111,000 zone, revealed that he flipped long as the target was reached in late August. “Alright, as if the confluences of my confidence in the bottom being in the $110k area at the end of August weren’t strong enough … there now is another confluence lining up,” he wrote. According to him, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting cycle has historically functioned as a turning point for Bitcoin trends.
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He explained: “The FOMC meeting data reverses the ongoing trend at minimum 0 bars (on the date), or 6 bars at most before the date, and it has done that correctly 90%+ of the times. The few times it hasn’t, was because our quarterly long took over (which has more power).” In practice, Astronomer argues, markets front-run the event, as insiders and well-capitalized players set the post-FOMC direction before retail sentiment digests the outcome.
With the next FOMC scheduled for September 18, he contends the downtrend from $123,000 to $110,000 already exhausted itself ahead of schedule. “Now with FOMC coming up … the low is likely already planted, and the trend reversed to up again,” he said.
Bitcoin price analysis | Source: X @astronomer_zero
The analyst contrasted his methodology with the broader crypto commentary ecosystem, where many influencers continue to forecast further downside and a “red September.” He called such views “utter nonsense” rooted in surface-level seasonality. “Every time it does work, it plants its bottom before the actual meeting to front run the anticipation … insiders already have set the post FOMC price direction, regardless of the outcome,” he wrote, stressing that relying on generic “be careful” warnings ahead of central bank events misses the structural shift.
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After his long entry at $110,000, Bitcoin has since climbed above $115,000, prompting Astronomer to declare September’s bearish thesis already invalid. “ September will close green. Yup, Septembears officially 6% in the wrong now. As September opened at 108,299, and price is now at 115,000. That puts September in the upper historical quartile of how green it is at the moment,” he noted.
He further pointed to the last two years as evidence that September’s reputation as a seasonally weak month for Bitcoin has lost statistical edge. “A certain month indeed doesn’t have to be green. ‘Seasonality’ is just a cookie cutter version of properly using cycles. Look at last two years, September has also been green and mean to the bears,” he wrote.
For Astronomer, the conclusion is clear: “When many confluences point in the same direction, it usually means you have solved the rubik’s cube correctly and so can confidently believe.” Still, he tempered the conviction with risk management discipline, stating: “Of course, I could always be wrong, although it has been a long time we lost a trade, never go all in. Take a decent size risk and sleep sound.”
With Bitcoin holding above $115,000 and the FOMC meeting days away, the market’s near-term verdict on whether a sustainable bottom has formed may arrive sooner rather than later.
The Bitcoin price has managed to stay above $110,000 over the weekend, and on-chain data shows that the premier cryptocurrency sits above three crucial support levels. Here are the critical levels to watch out for over the next few weeks.
Where Are The Next Support Levels For BTC?
On Saturday, September 6, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez took to the social media platform X to offer on-chain insights into the current layout of the Bitcoin price. This price evaluation, which revolves around the BTC UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric, shows the next support levels for Bitcoin.
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The capacity for a price level to act as an on-chain support or resistance zone usually depends on the number of investors who have their cost basis at the given level. An investor’s cost basis refers to the actual price at which they purchased a cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this case).
The relevant indicator here—UTXO Realized Price Distribution—tracks the amount of a particular cryptocurrency that was acquired at a specific price level. Typically, price levels below the current spot value with substantial buying activity are often considered as major support zones. Meanwhile, levels above the current price with significant investor cost bases usually act as major resistance areas.
Source: @ali_charts on X
As shown in the chart above, $108,250, $104,250, and $97,050 are the next crucial support levels for the Bitcoin price. Data from Glassnode shows that nearly 432,000 coins were bought in the $108,250 zone, while roughly 401,000 coins were purchased around the $104,250 region. Meanwhile, 404,000 BTC were acquired around the $97,054 area.
The rationale behind this is that investors with a cost basis around these price levels are likely to double down on their positions and purchase more coins. This increased buying activity will, hence, provide a cushion for the Bitcoin price to stay afloat and potentially bounce back.
It’s worth mentioning that the next major resistance level for the Bitcoin price based on the URPD metric is around $116,963. Several investors (550,000 coins) around this level are likely to close their positions when the price returns to its cost basis, thereby putting downward pressure on the BTC price.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $110,628, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is up by more than 1% in the past seven days.
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The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
In his latest daily technical outlook, Cryptowzrd highlighted that Bitcoin closed the day with a gravestone doji, while holding above a critical level. According to the analysis, more bullish candles are needed to sustain momentum and push the price toward the $120,000 resistance, especially as the market contends with ongoing fundamental pressures.
Fundamentals Support Bitcoin Despite Weak NFP Print
Cryptowzrd highlighted that the daily candle of Bitcoin closed indecisively, signaling uncertainty as the market evaluates its next move. Despite this indecision, BTC remains above the crucial $110,500 level, which continues to serve as a strong support zone. This level remains critical in determining whether bullish momentum can be sustained in the short term.
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The analyst noted that Bitcoin has maintained its bullish edge even in the face of a lower-than-expected NFP print, triggered by fundamental commentary. This development suggests that broader market sentiment is still supportive of BTC, and technical strength is being reinforced by macroeconomic factors.
From a weekly perspective, traditional markets have closed on a bullish note, adding further support to Bitcoin’s potential upside. However, a series of consecutive bullish daily candles is needed to solidify confidence in a rally toward the $120,000 resistance level. Without this confirmation, the market could remain in a holding pattern, leaving room for volatility and short-term swings.
On the downside, he cautioned that if Bitcoin breaks below the $110,500 level by mid-week, it could open the door for a deeper correction, potentially testing the $100,000 support zone. Such a move would shift market dynamics, increasing selling pressure and creating strategic opportunities for traders to position for short-term downside plays.
Over the weekend, Cryptowzrd will be closely monitoring lower-time frame charts to identify actionable scalp opportunities while ensuring that the current position above $110,500 remains secure.
Intraday Volatility Driven By NFP And Market Fundamentals
Concluding his analysis, the analyst highlighted that the intraday chart of BTC has been volatile, influenced by recent fundamental commentary and the lower-than-expected NFP print. This volatility reflects the market’s uncertainty, as traders weigh both technical and macroeconomic factors.
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He noted that a decisive move above $113,200 would signal stronger bullish momentum, potentially pushing Bitcoin higher and helping to secure the current position. Such a breakout signals that buyers are regaining control of the market.
On the other hand, a drop below $110,400 could open the door for additional downside. For now, the analyst plans to wait patiently for the market to form a more mature trade setup before taking the next actionable position.
BTC trading at $110,823 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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The highest standards in reporting and publishing
Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
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Ostium Labs argues that Bitcoin’s uptrend remains intact after August’s reversal, but it draws a bright red line at $98,000. In its September 1 Market Outlook, the firm writes: “Closing below $98k on this timeframe would turn weekly structure bearish,” adding that “above $98k weekly structure is still bullish and therefore we should anticipate the formation of a higher-low.”
At publication time, Ostium referenced BTC around $108,017, with the August monthly candle settling “firmly red” after wicking through the record to roughly $124.5k and closing near prior resistance-turned-support around $108.2k.
Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch Now
On the monthly chart, Ostium sees no evidence of a 2021-style cyclical top. The note acknowledges some momentum divergence on RSI but stresses the absence of confirmation from the Awesome Oscillator: “AO has continued to point towards building momentum throughout the uptrend… I do not think this is even remotely similar to the 2021 top formation.”
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The bear case strengthens only if September “closes below the 2025 open at $93.3k and therefore below local trendline support.” For the bullish path, the team wants September to find support “above the yearly open, but likely much higher around the July lows at $105k,” and “ideally” finish the month green “above the August open at $115k,” a configuration they say would “set us up for expansion beyond the highs in October.”
Bitcoin monthly chart analysis | Source: X @OstiumLabs
Weekly structure, by Ostium’s read, “showed no exhaustion on the move higher” and has now reset toward 50 on RSI, a profile the firm says supports trend continuation. Should the market carve a higher low early in September and reclaim momentum, a weekly close “back above $112k leads to a retest of the August open and potentially $117.5k into FOMC with a retest of the highs before month-end.”
Bitcoin weekly chart analysis | Source: X @OstiumLabs
The daily timeframe remains the near-term hurdle. Ostium characterizes the pullback as “orderly,” with supports flipped to resistance on the way down and “the key level… obviously the $112k prior all-time high,” which served as support in early August and then “reclaimed resistance” on last week’s leg lower.
“A breakout and close above the trendline and back above $112k would look like the bottom is in,” they write. A failed probe—“wick above the trendline into $112k and reject”—would bias price toward “the June open at $104.5k, with the 200dMA below that at $101.3k being key demand.” In derivatives, CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps for Binance’s BTC/USDT pair over one week and one month show dense liquidation bands layered above the $114k cap and clustered below around the $120k region, while no significant levels are visible to the downside.
Bitcoin liquidation heatmaps | Source: X @OstiumLabs
With a macro-heavy week ahead— ISM prints, JOLTS, the Fed’s Beige Book, jobless claims, ADP, ISM Services, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls—Ostium lays out conditional tactical setups. For longs, they prefer evidence of exhaustion into support: trendline resistance respected, “today’s low” taken out via a liquidation wick into the June-open/200-day cluster, and bullish divergence forming there before bidding for a move back to the weekly open and the $112k retest. For shorts, they prefer a sharp early-week squeeze into $112k “with trend exhaustion… having not taken out today’s low around $107k,” fading the pop back into weekly lows with risk reduced if it unfolds ahead of NFP.
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Ostium also surveys positioning, pointing to snapshots across Velo and CoinGlass, three-month annualized basis, and the mix between Bitcoin and altcoin open interest, as well as one-week and one-month liquidation maps. While it refrains from headline claims on those dashboards, the note’s technical levels line up with the most concentrated liquidation density visible in the attached heatmaps, where stacked interest remains perched near the $112k pivot overhead and layered through the $105k–$101k demand shelf.
DXY As Tailwind For The BTC Price
The report extends beyond Bitcoin. The dollar backdrop, in Ostium’s framework, remains a tailwind for BTC into year-end. With DXY around 97.2, the firm says the current sequence rhymes with past cyclical drawdowns and expects “DXY to break below 96 and push towards at least 94.6, but more likely 93,” where a bottoming formation could emerge above the 200-month moving average. The secular DXY bull case is not dismissed; rather, Ostium situates the present leg as the final cyclical downswing before a higher-low and multi-year recovery, contingent on policy outcomes. A decisive monthly reclaim of 100 would invalidate the near-term bearish DXY view.
Across assets, the through-line of Ostium’s September map is clarity on thresholds. For Bitcoin, a weekly loss of $98,000 would be the first structural break of the cycle; a daily reclaim of $112,000 would strongly argue the local low is in; and a monthly hold above $105,000 with a close back over $115,000 would tee up fresh highs into October.
On-chain analytics platform Santiment has weighed in on whether the Bitcoin price has reached its bottom, following its drop to the $108,000 range. The platform alluded to the current social sentiment, suggesting that a further drawdown may be looming.
Bitcoin Price Bottom Not Yet In Amid Spike In Social Dominance
In a research report, Santiment indicated that the Bitcoin price bottom may not yet be in, considering the surge in the social dominance of ‘buy the dip’ mentions. The platform explained that a true bottom is often marked not by price but by a shift in social narrative from ‘buy the dip’ optimism to widespread fear. This creates a strong bearish case that discourages buying.
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Santiment suggested that the Bitcoin price typically rebounds when the sentiment is bearish and when investors least expect an uptrend. However, for now, market participants are still getting “antsy and trying to find some entry spots now that prices have cooled down a bit, Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan explained.
The analyst opined that the cooldown in the Bitcoin price so far is not a huge one, while noting that BTC has detached from the S&P 500. Quinlivan predicted that BTC and other crypto assets could play catch-up to the stock market when the crowd stops getting too optimistic about buying the dip. He added that the true ‘buy the dip’ opportunities happen when the crowd stops believing there is an opportunity.
In the research report, Santiment noted that the current ‘buy the dip’ chatter needs to be suddenly replaced by discussion of the narrative that supports the bearish case. In line with this, the platform advised market participants to pay close attention to the dominant social narrative. According to the report, when the conversation shifts from hopeful buying to widespread fear, it can be a stronger bottom signal than the Bitcoin price alone.
Another Metric To Keep An Eye On
The Santiment report indicated that BTC whale transfers are another key metric to watch for, as they can help determine if the Bitcoin price has reached its bottom. These whales, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC, have not been selling off in any significant way despite the market dip.
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According to Maksim, who joined Santiment analyst Brian on the podcast, whenever these wallets do decrease their holdings, it can lead to “postponed price suppression weeks thereafter.” Therefore, Santiment advised market participants to monitor the holdings of large Bitcoin wallets. A lack of selling from whales could indicate underlying strength, while a significant drop can be a warning of future price weakness.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $107,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
BTC trading at $109,600 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
After hitting a new all-time high last month, the Bitcoin price has since retraced by more than 10%, crashing below $110,000 once again. This bearish pressure has continued into the new month, with sell-offs being the order of the day, especially as investors move to secure their profits. Despite calls for a possible bottom, a crypto analyst has suggested that the Bitcoin crash is far from over. In fact, going by the analysis, the decline may just be starting as Bitcoin is expected to tumble further.
Why A Crash To $93,000 Is Imminent
In the analysis, crypto analyst MMBTtrader acknowledges the fact that the Bitcoin price is already under immense pressure. This is shown by the fact that the cryptocurrency has been rejected from $120,000 and has now fallen back to the next major support zone.
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So far, the $108,000 level has acted as a support, preventing further decline. However, with sellers still being in charge of the market, it is possible that this level does not hold for long. Looking at the broader picture, the crypto analyst calls for further price decline, and this could trigger a cascading effect.
As the analyst explains, this is happening because the market needs some rest. There is also the trendline that began back in 2024, shown by the line in green, suggesting where the Bitcoin price could fall next. A retest of this trendline suggests that Bitcoin could dump back to $93,000, where the trendline makes its next contact.
Naturally, the next retest of the trendline in this case would mean that it is hitting support. But there is also the fact that momentum doesn’t point to a possible Bitcoin price recovery. Even after hitting $93,000, the analyst expects a further breakdown and a move to as low as $70,000.
Source: TradingView
Why Bitcoin Price Could Still Jump
In the case of bulls being able to maintain support and triggering a bounce, the crypto analyst shows there is still a possibility of a price jump. Here, the price would have to reclaim the trendline above $117,000 to complete the upward continuation.
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A price jump from this support level could end in another 30% price increase, pushing the price above the $137,000 level. However, the analyst remains adamant that there is more possibility of a breakdown. “I am thinking of breakout to the downside and more dump after that like red arrows maybe now with higher possibility,” MMBTtrader stated.
Opeyemi is a proficient writer and enthusiast in the exciting and unique cryptocurrency realm. While the digital asset industry was not his first choice, he has remained absolutely drawn since making a foray into the space over two years. Now, Opeyemi takes pride in creating unique pieces unraveling the complexities of blockchain technology and sharing insights on the latest trends in the world of cryptocurrencies.
Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.
Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.
When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.
Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K. Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.
Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.
Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.
Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.
Cryptowzrd, in a fresh update on Bitcoin’s daily technical outlook, noted that the market closed bearish, leaving room for further downside. A decisive close below the $110,500 support could mark a key shift, making lower levels worth watching.
Daily Candle Signals Bearish Pressure For Bitcoin
Cryptowzrd expanded on his outlook by pointing out that Bitcoin’s daily candle closed bearish, with price now trading beneath the $110,500 support zone. This breakdown is significant and could invite further selling pressure in the sessions ahead if buyers fail to reclaim the level.
He emphasized that holding below this support opens the door for a potential move toward the $100,000 mark. However, a strong bullish candle and a swift recovery could invalidate the bearish setup, restoring confidence for buyers.
In the analysis, he also highlighted the performance of Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), which closed indecisively while displaying weakness. This weakness in dominance is often viewed as a positive signal for altcoins, as it suggests capital is flowing away from Bitcoin and into alternative assets.
Such a shift in market dominance reflects growing market confidence in altcoins. When Bitcoin dominance stalls or declines, it tends to fuel altcoin rallies, allowing traders to diversify into promising setups across the market.
Finally, he noted that markets are heading into the monthly transition period, a time often associated with increased volatility and mixed sentiment. Going into the weekend, he emphasized the importance of staying rational and avoiding overextending in either direction, maintaining measured strategies while waiting for clearer confirmation signals.
BTC Volatility Dominates Intraday Trading
Cryptowzrd highlighted that today’s intraday chart displayed sharp volatility with a clear bearish tone, as Bitcoin slipped and is currently holding below the $110,400 intraday support. This level has now become critical, as losing it signals weakening buyer strength and raises the risk of further downside pressure.
He explained that if Bitcoin retests $110,400 and fails to reclaim it, the level could flip into resistance. Such a scenario would likely trigger a short setup, with price action targeting the $105,500 support area or even extending lower if bearish momentum accelerates. This makes the $110,400 region a decisive battleground for traders closely watching intraday setups.
On the other hand, Cryptowzrd pointed out that a strong reclaim and hold above $110,400 could shift momentum back in favor of the bulls, opening the door for further upside pressure. However, the crypto analyst emphasized that the market currently lacks clarity, and traders should exercise caution before rushing in.
The Bitcoin price is once again under heavy pressure in the market. An analyst has warned that the coin shows strong bearish signs after being rejected at a resistance level. The price has now fallen to a critical support area, where buyers are trying to hold the line. According to the analyst, if the level fails, the price could drop even lower, raising doubts about whether the key levels will remain safe.
Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Turned Bearish After $121,000 Rejection
The analyst explained that the bearish trend began when Bitcoin strongly rejected the $121,000 resistance level. According to the analyst, that rejection forced the coin to break down from its earlier upward channel, which had guided the price during its last rally. Once this breakdown happened, the mood in the market shifted, and a new bearish phase took hold.
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The analyst added that Bitcoin first moved within a downward channel, but even that structure could not hold. As selling pressure increased, the coin also broke below the support level of this channel. The downward move marked a shift in sentiment, as buyers could not keep the price stable. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s fall may now follow a steep local trend line, which could cause the coin to decline faster.
This kind of move shows that sellers are firmly in control for now. The analyst’s view is that the rejection at $121,000 was a turning point, and the coin has been unable to regain strength since then. For many traders, this level has become a clear resistance that won’t break again without strong demand.
Source: TradingView
$109,700 Support Under Pressure, Analyst Targets $104,000 Next
The analyst also pointed out that Bitcoin is now directly testing the key buyer zone at $109,700. The level acts as a horizontal support, and the analyst says that if it fails, the bearish case could only grow stronger. While there may be a short period of sideways movement or a minor retest of the nearby trend line, the analyst believes the dominant force in the market remains downward pressure.
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In simple terms, the analyst expects the weight of selling to break the $109,700 level. If that happens, the path to $104,000 becomes the next logical target. The analyst explained that this lower zone could be the next support area where buyers might try to fight back.
However, if $109,700 does not hold, the move to $104,000 could come quickly. Beyond that, the market will begin to ask a bigger question — can Bitcoin hold the critical $100,000 level? Traders are watching closely, because a break below that level would mark a significant shift in the broader trend.
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Eric Trump laid out a bluntly bullish, supply-and-demand case for why Bitcoin can reach $1 million, arguing that accelerating institutional access collides with Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million-coin cap, during a “Bitcoin Takes Over the World” session with David Bailey at the Bitcoin Asia conference in Hong Kong on August 29.
Bitcoin’s Path To $1 Million Is ‘No Question’
“Everybody wants Bitcoin. Everybody is buying Bitcoin. And that’s uh that’s an incredible thing. And that’s why I’ve always said that I really believe that in the next several years, Bitcoin will hit a million dollars. There’s no question Bitcoin hits a million dollars,” Trump told the audience, adding that “every person who wants an asset class and you have a very limited supply… it doesn’t take a genius to figure out where that goes.” He urged long-term accumulation over timing: “Buy right now. Shut your eyes. Hold it for the next five years and you are going to do terrifically well.”
Trump also recounted his private discussions with high-level investors in the lead-up to the conference: “When you’re in the room with certain people and and I had breakfast this morning with, you know, a couple of the most powerful people in the region and the hospitality space and you’re literally sitting there trying to explain to them what digital currency is, you realize how early we all are to this race […] I hear from people all the time, you know, should I get into cryptocurrency? Did I miss it? Am I too late? And I literally start laughing at them. I go, we haven’t even scratched the surface of what Bitcoin is going to be.”
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Trump’s core thesis combined two pillars: finite issuance and broadening distribution rails. He repeatedly emphasized Bitcoin’s provable scarcity—“There’s only 21 million coins… It’s finite. And that’s what makes it so damn powerful”—while asserting that channels for ownership have widened to large pools of capital. “In America, people are buying it for their retirement plans for the first time… you’ve got trillions of dollars of liquidity that’s opening up,” he said, citing custody at “major financial institutions,” as well as uptake by “the biggest banks,” “the biggest families,” “Fortune 500 companies,” and “sovereign wealth funds.” According to Trump, those cohorts are long-term holders: “Those retirement accounts are not letting Bitcoin go. Those companies are not letting Bitcoin go. Those sovereign wealth funds are not letting Bitcoin go.”
Pressed on what he is hearing in high-level rooms globally, Trump offered another anecdote—without naming the country—about a leader who “literally [takes] the entire energy supply of a major city in the middle of a winter and uses it to mine Bitcoin because that’s how much they believe in the asset.” He added, “You realize how early we all are […] more and more people are finding their inroads,” pointing to improving exchange usability and new consumer on-ramps. “We’re literally trying to get cryptocurrency to the masses,” he said about World Liberty Financial.
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Trump also highlighted his own commercial exposure to the sector. He described American Bitcoin as “one of the biggest Bitcoin mining companies on Earth,” claiming it produces “about 3% of the world’s Bitcoin every single day,” operates from “some of the cheapest energy in the world… in Texas,” and targets a “rough cost per… mining of Bitcoin… about $37,000,” with plans to list on Nasdaq “very soon.” Beyond mining, he praised his involvement with MetaPlanet alongside Simon Gerovich—whom he dubbed “the Michael Saylor of Asia”—saying the company had “single-handedly changed… the way [Japan and] a lot of Asia” view Bitcoin.
The conversation returned repeatedly to Bitcoin’s evolving utility narrative. While calling Bitcoin “digital gold” and “the greatest store of value that’s arguably ever been created,” Trump argued its use cases are broadening: “Every single day they’re figuring out new ways to kind of stake it, to get yield on it, to use it for everyday purchases […] you’re taking this digital gold […] and you’re putting massive utility behind Bitcoin.” He framed volatility as an ally for long-term buyers—“Volatility is our friend”—and, with a wink to Michael Saylor’s famous extremism, quipped, “I know obviously he jokes when he says that, but he’s right. Buy it, hold it, and I think you’re going to do extremely well.”
The market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), has recently attempted to stabilize around $112,000 after experiencing a sharp decline to $110,000 on Sunday, meaning a 10% drop from all-time high (ATH) levels.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September meeting, market expert Doctor Profit highlighted on X (formerly Twitter) the upcoming implications and the most important technical indicators that paint a bleak picture for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader market.
Fed Rate Cut To Trigger A New Market Correction?
Doctor Profit emphasized that the current market environment is markedly different from previous cycles. He believes that the anticipated rate cut by the Fed next month could initiate a robust correction in both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
According to him, the first significant cut typically brings uncertainty, leading to divergent opinions among investors, and he predicts that this time will be no exception.
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Turning to Bitcoin’s technical indicators, the outlook appears bearish. The expert noted a substantial Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap around the $93,000 mark that needs addressing, with most liquidity concentrated in the $90,000 to $95,000 range.
Key levels for Bitcoin in case of a new correction below $100,000. Source: DoctorProfit on X
The charts indicate a potential correction, highlighted by a double top formation and declining trading volume. Notably, Doctor Profit has asserted that the last price surge that saw BTC reach $124,000, was largely driven by futures rather than spot market activity, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Bitcoin Price Forecast
Market psychology plays a crucial role in this analysis. On-chain metrics and sentiment indicators reveal that retail investors often buy high and sell low.
The expert disclosed that during Bitcoin’s last dip from $110,000 to $98,000 between May and June of this year, it was primarily institutional investors who capitalized on the lower prices, while retail buyers missed out.
As prices climbed, retail investors entered the market at higher levels, Doctor Profit added, which could lead to a shakeout as Bitcoin approaches the critical liquidation zone of $90,000 to $95,000.
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Beyond Bitcoin’s price action, Doctor Profit warns that the current market sentiment reflects a false sense of optimism, suggesting that the prevalent belief in a sustained altcoin season is misguided. He cautions that as enthusiasm grows, larger players may begin to offload their positions, leaving retail investors exposed.
Looking ahead, he forecasts a potential surge in Bitcoin prices towards $145,000 to $150,000, which could potentially mean a 34% increase from current levels. The expert also expects Ethereum (ETH) to reach between $7,000 and $8,000 following the September correction.
When writing, Bitcoin trades at $112,560, recording a 6% drop in the fourteen-days time frame. Ethereum on the other hand, has continuously positioned among the market’s top performers with a 5% surge during the same period.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Opeyemi is a proficient writer and enthusiast in the exciting and unique cryptocurrency realm. While the digital asset industry was not his first choice, he has remained absolutely drawn since making a foray into the space over two years. Now, Opeyemi takes pride in creating unique pieces unraveling the complexities of blockchain technology and sharing insights on the latest trends in the world of cryptocurrencies.
Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.
Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.
When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.
Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K. Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.
Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.
Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.
Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.
Justin Bons, the founder and CIO of Cyber Capital, has issued a stark warning about Bitcoin’s (BTC) future, predicting that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could collapse in the coming years. The crypto founder has cited Bitcoin’s declining security model and shrinking block rewards as some of the indicators of this seemingly inevitable crash.
Bitcoin Forecasted To Collapse Within 7-11 Years
This week, the crypto community was shaken by a striking prediction from Bons, who warned that Bitcoin could face a catastrophic collapse within the next decade. According to an X social media post released by the Cyber Capital founder, the foundations of Bitcoin’s security model are fundamentally broken, and the decline of mining revenue will eventually leave the network increasingly vulnerable to attacks.
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Bons projected that Bitcoin’s downfall could occur precisely between 7 and 11 years, when the block rewards diminish to levels that can no longer sustain miner incentives. His reasoning is rooted in the economics of the Bitcoin protocol, which relies on a declining block subsidy over time. By 11 years from now, the reward is expected to fall to just 0.39 BTC per block, translating to roughly $2.3 billion annually at current prices. This figure, the crypto founder argues, is nowhere near enough to protect Bitcoin’s multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization.
Bons also shared two charts to reinforce his claims. The first shows mining revenue in sharp decline relative to previous years, demonstrating Bitcoin’s reliance on subsidy rather than transaction fees. The second chart reveals how the annual security budget as a percentage of market cap has fallen consistently over the years, shrinking from over 8% in 2015 to barely above 1% in 2025.
The Cyber Capital CIO also pointed out that while other chains like Ethereum have successfully transitioned toward greater fee-based security, Bitcoin has failed to adapt, leaving its miners increasingly dependent on dwindling rewards. According to his post, the consequences of this are dire. As mining becomes unprofitable, he predicts that the network’s security could simultaneously decline, opening the door to censorship, 51% attacks, and eventual chain splits.
If core developers respond by raising the supply cap beyond 21 million, Bons forecasts that this could fracture the community and destroy Bitcoin’s narrative of digital scarcity. He warned that relying on a system that demands perpetual price doubling to maintain its security forever is nothing short of “madness.”
Community Pushes Back Against BTC Crash Claims
Unsurprisingly, Bon’s foreboding forecast has sparked intense debate and contrasting views throughout the crypto community. Many members pushed back, acknowledging the concerns about a shrinking security budget but challenging the inevitability of a Bitcoin collapse.
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Some argued that BTC has historically adapted to challenges and that transaction fees, along with scaling solutions, could still provide sustainable long-term security. Others suggested alternative mechanisms, such as MEV capture, sidechain fees, or even institutional miners operating at a loss to keep the network alive.
One community member raised the possibility of emergency measures like tail emissions or block size increases, citing Monero’s ongoing debate about similar solutions. Bons conceded that a tail emission might keep the chain alive but insisted it would come at the cost of Bitcoin’s core value proposition, which is fixed scarcity. In his view, such a compromise would leave BTC unable to compete against more adaptive blockchains.
BTC trading at $115,318 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin (BTC) price has experienced a significant downturn over the past 24 hours, falling below the critical $70,000 threshold. After reaching a peak of $73,620 on Tuesday, the cryptocurrency has declined by approximately 5.7%, hitting a low of $68,830 on Friday. Analysts point to several key factors behind this decline:
#1 Risk-Off Sentiment Ahead of US Election
The timing of Bitcoin’s price drop coincides with a narrowing lead for former President Donald Trump over Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris in prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, where users bet on election outcomes. Bitcoin has been considered a “Trump hedge” due to the former president’s strong advocacy for the cryptocurrency sector.
Donald Trump has proposed establishing a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” in the United States if re-elected. Speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference, he outlined plans to retain all Bitcoin currently held or acquired by the US government as part of this reserve. This initiative is a core element of his campaign to strengthen the US as a leader, aiming to make the country the “crypto capital of the planet.”
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Earlier in the week, when Trump’s lead over Harris was more substantial, Bitcoin neared its all-time high of $73,777. The shrinking of Trump’s lead appears to have prompted investors to adopt a risk-off stance, contributing to the price decline.
Crypto analyst HornHairs noted that derisking before elections has precedent. “Derisking into the election 5-6 days before it takes place happened in both 2020 and 2016. Price then went on to never retest the lows set the week before the election ever again. Be careful what you sell here,” he remarked via X.
#2 S&P 500 Loses 3-Month Trendline
The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets may have also influenced BTC’s price movement. The S&P 500 has fallen to its lowest level since October 9, potentially affecting investor sentiment in the crypto space.
Analysts from The Kobeissi Letter observed that despite major tech companies like Apple reporting strong earnings, their stock prices have declined. “Yet another tech giant to beat earnings but trade lower,” they noted, adding that technology stocks faced widespread selling even as Meta, Amazon, and Apple exceeded earnings expectations. They added, It appears that markets are de-risking ahead of the election next week. Brace for volatility.”
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Crypto trader Marco Johanning highlighted concerns about the S&P 500 losing its three-month trendline. “Given that the S&P 500 lost the 3-months trendline yesterday, it looks more like a potential selloff before the US election on Tuesday and lower prices in the short term. The perfect bounce level is the 7-month trendline (blue). I don’t want to see prices below the POC/key level around 63k (red),” he wrote via X.
#3 Leverage Flush Out
A significant unwinding of leveraged positions in the markets has also contributed to Bitcoin’s price decline. The market correction appears to be a healthy response to an overextension driven by leverage.
Renowned crypto analyst Miles Deutscher noted: “This pullback is normal (and expected). Market was looking overextended the last few days, and largely driven by leverage. Still not buying heavy as it isn’t a full cascade yet—will wait for one of those days around the election. Not a bad DCA day for certain coins tho.”
Austin Reid, Global Head of Revenue & Business at crypto prime brokerage firm FalconX, pointed out that the crypto derivatives market was “on fire” ahead of the election, with futures open interest for BTC, ETH, and SOL crossing the $50 billion mark for the first time.
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr reported that open interest was reduced by $2.1 billion, implying a significant leverage flush out.
Bitcoin leverage flush out | Source: X @AxelAdlerJr
According to data from Coinglass, over the past 24 hours, 93,864 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations amounting to $286.73 million. The largest single liquidation order occurred on Binance’s BTCUSDT pair, valued at $11.26 million. For Bitcoin alone, $81.38 million in long positions were liquidated—the largest amount since October 1.
The Bitcoin price could see its price surging dramatically to $200,000, with the formation of a newCup and Handle pattern. While the pioneer cryptocurrency has been slowly recovering frombearish trends to reach the $70,000 mark, a rally to $200,000 would mark a historical milestone and a new All-Time-High (ATH) for BTC.
Technical Pattern Signals $200,000 Rally Ahead
Popular crypto analyst, Mags hasunveiled a new technical pattern in the Bitcoin price chart. According to his post on X (formerly Twitter), Bitcoin is currently forming “a massive cup and handle pattern,” indicating apotential for a major rally.
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Mags revealed that the Bitcoin price has just moved past the handle portion in the technical pattern, indicating a positive signal for a breakout that could start a bullish phase. As its name suggests, a Cup and Handle pattern is a key technical chart pattern that resembles a cup and handle. In this chart pattern, the cup is in the shape of a U and is considered a bullish signal, while the handle represents a slight downward drift, which indicates a potential buying opportunity to go long.
Source: X
Mags observed that since Bitcoin has just broken past the handle, the next level is to watch the “neckline” which serves as a resistance point. If Bitcoin can break through the neckline, it’s price could surge dramatically or like the analyst says “go vertical.” This bull rally could see Bitcoin’s price driving towards $200,000, marking anew all time high for the cryptocurrency.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is trading at $66,972, reflecting a slight 2.02% decrease in the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap. While Mags has projected a $200,000 price increase for Bitcoin, the analyst has also forecasted even higher price targets in previous X posts, suggesting that a $200,000 price level may be conservative for the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Price Peak Set At $300,000
In another X post on October 24, Magsdisclosed that Bitcoin is about to enter its price discovery, suggesting an imminent breakout to new levels.Price discovery is the process by which an asset’s true market value is determined, and for Bitcoin, it suggests when its price could reach fresh highs.
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Sharing a historical Bitcoin price chart, the analyst pinpointed instances where the cryptocurrency entered a price discovery before reaching a peak. In 2014,BTC hit a peak, then bottomed out in 2015 before reaching another price high in 2018. A similar price action occurred between 2019 and 2024, with BTC achieving a bottom in 2019 and peaking in 2021.
Source: X
Following this historical price trend, Mags indicated thatBitcoin hit its bottom in 2023 and is now about to enter its price discovery. Once the cryptocurrency does, it could signal a surge to a new all-time high, which Mags has set at an impressive $300,000.
A crypto analyst has projected a significant break to the upside for Bitcoin, drawing parallels to similar breakouts in traditional assets in the tune of the Gold and the S&P500. According to a technical analysis of the current price action, Bitcoin is playing out a cup and handle pattern, which could send it surging to bullish price targets above $230,000.
Bitcoin Cup And Handle Cascade
According to a technical analysis, Bitcoin appears to be forming a textbook cup and handle pattern on the largest timeframe, which is a bullish continuation pattern that often leads to a major price rally. This formation typically indicates a period of consolidation followed by a breakout to the upside, and if the pattern fully plays out, Bitcoin could surge to new heights.
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In a recent analysis shared on the social media platform X, technical analyst Gert van Lagen compared Bitcoin’s ongoing cup and handle formation to similar patterns observed in Gold and the S&P 500. Van Lagen pointed out that Gold experienced a comparable setup of the formation of the cup and handle, which ultimately led to a full-scale bull rally in 2023. This breakout pushed Gold to new highs which has continued up until the time of writing, with Gold now trading above $2,730 in its history.
Similarly, the analyst highlighted a similar cup and handle pattern in the SP500, which eventually led to a rally that kickstarted in late 2023 and culminated in new peaks for the index.
Van Lagen emphasized that Bitcoin has been tracing out a similar pattern since the 2022 bear market. The “cup” portion of the formation was completed when Bitcoin reached its all-time high back in March. Now, Bitcoin is in the process of forming the “handle” part of the pattern, as the cryptocurrency has yet to revisit its all-time high over the past seven months.
Should the handle formation conclude and a breakout occur, Bitcoin could be on the verge of a strong rally, much like Gold and the S&P 500 experienced during their respective runs.
BTC To $230,000
According to van Lagen, Bitcoin is “poised to follow the structural path of SP500 & Gold.” In terms of a price target, he predicted a target of $230,000 for Bitcoin.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,350. Reaching the $230,000 price level would necessitate a 197% price increase from the current price.
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Interestingly, van Lagen’s forecast is just one of several bullish outlooks resurfacing as Bitcoin’s price has shown positive momentum since the second week of October. Bitcoin is up by about 13.5% from $59,500 on October 10, which has prompted a return of bullish sentiment.
According to a report, this has caused a rise in Bitcoin accumulation by long-term holders, who now hold about 2.9 million BTC. Another analyst noted that Bitcoin is on track to double in value and reach $130,000 by January 2025
Crypto analyst Bob Loukas has released a new video analysis titled “No Bull.” In the video, Loukas delves into the current state of the Bitcoin market, addressing growing concerns about the possibility of a canceled bull run.
Loukas begins by acknowledging the prolonged period of consolidation for the Bitcoin price. He senses that “there is now some fear creeping into the market,” partly due to factors such as the Bitcoin ETF being “out for quite some time” and the halving having “come and go,” without leading to significant upward price movement.
Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over?
Loukas observes that while traditional markets are performing robustly—with “the stock market making all-time highs seemingly every week” and “even gold making big all-time highs”—Bitcoin continues to “languish,” and altcoins are “pretty much dying a slow death.” He notes that “the only thing out there that’s really working is the really speculative memecoins,” contributing to negative sentiment in the crypto space.
However, he considers this development to be “kind of normal,” emphasizing that despite these challenges, Bitcoin remains “close to the all-time highs from the prior cycle.” Discussing the eight months of consolidation in Bitcoin’s price, Loukas interprets this period as a bullish sign. “Eight months of consolidation is actually pretty bullish if the timing is right in the four-year cycle. Sentiment is right, it’s been reset; fundamentals, macro, I think they all look right,” he states.
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Loukas further highlights that the market is “23 months in” since the lows of the last cycle in November 2022, “just shy of a 24-month or 2-year anniversary of this cycle,” which is due to conclude around November-December 2026. He acknowledges the “quite a bit of fear that’s sort of crept into this market” following a “very bullish, very frothy period” from the ETF approval leak in September-October 2023 up to the peak in March 2024.
One of the main fears, according to Loukas, is that Bitcoin made its last all-time high seven months ago in March, and since then, “we’ve been forming these lower highs on the monthly and also to some extent a lower low structure.” This has created anxiety among investors who “entered the market way too late, waiting for confirmation,” only to find themselves “locked out when the market went on this five straight months move,” without providing an opportunity to buy during a dip.
He points out that many investors have “rolled into a bunch of altcoins in this later period that are now down 50, 60, 70%,” leading to a situation where, despite Bitcoin being “still up around 3x off the lows,” a lot of people feel they haven’t “extracted any sort of value out of this cycle” or have even “lost money over this period.” Loukas considers this scenario to be “quite normal from a cycle structure perspective.”
He emphasizes that during this bullish phase, the market didn’t experience a “typical 30% decline at any given point,” with the “biggest declines” being “mostly time-based and were only around about 20% from peak to trough before making a new high.” This atypical behavior “threw a lot of people off” and “made it difficult for people to get in,” as they were “looking to buy on a dip which never really eventuated.”
Loukas suggests that the current consolidation is a necessary phase to “completely reset sentiment in order to prepare for the next phase of this four-year cycle.” He finds it significant that Bitcoin is “sitting here 23 months, just around 20% or so off the all-time highs of the last four-year cycle high back in 2021,” which makes it feel “more primed for the next phase of the four-year cycle than anything else.”
He also draws parallels with previous cycles, noting that from the cycle low in December 2018 to the first point where Bitcoin made a new high, “it took 23 months to get to the price four-year cycle high to exceed that.” Similar patterns were observed in earlier cycles, with timeframes of “around 25 months” and “around 22 months” to reach new all-time highs. In contrast, the current cycle achieved this milestone “in just 16 months, much sooner,” which he attributes largely to the ETF news that “forced buyers in earlier in the cycle than normal.”
Loukas believes that this accelerated timeline has created a dynamic where “we now have to rotate a lot of coins,” allowing “a lot of whales, a lot of old-timers” to “unlock” and “exit and rotate,” while “institutional players, larger account players have been accumulating those coins in this period.” He views this as “a matter of time more than anything else,” interpreting the current period as a process where the market “ends up erasing all that bullish sentiment” from the previous phase, thus allowing “a complete separation from one phase of the cycle to this phase of the cycle”—essentially a “mid-cycle decline.”
When Will BTC Price Break Out?
Overall, Loukas remains largely optimistic: “So far in this four-year cycle, I see nothing that has changed that trajectory, nothing in the profile or the structure that tells me that this cycle is any different to the last cycles.”
He cites several factors supporting his bullish outlook, including “massive inflows into Bitcoin, mostly institutional players,” and the absorption of large sell-offs by entities like “the German government” and “the US government,” which have not significantly impacted the price. Loukas emphasizes that “price is down only 20%; it’s held up well.” He also mentions that “the ETF is still there; it’s going to be pushed through the independent advisor channels,” and “the timing is there; the macro, the fundamentals are there.”
Loukas is particularly excited about the cyclical patterns, noting that “the third year of each of these four cycles is where the magic happens.” He explains that “the first year surprises everybody, that makes up a lot of ground. The second year seems like it stalls because it consolidates that first year of gains. And the third year is the mania year. And right now, beginning next month, we have the mania year that is on deck.”
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He predicts that “within the next 90 days… we’re going to break out of this consolidating range; we’re going to break to the upside.” Once this happens, he believes Bitcoin “isn’t going to look back,” anticipating a period that “may only see one or two red monthly candles and mostly green candles.” While he refrains from providing specific price targets, he acknowledges that reaching “somewhere between $120,000 and $180,000 also seems very reasonable.”
Loukas emphasizes that the focus should be on “time and sentiment,” aiming for a move “in the range where prior cycles have peaked,” which has been “very consistent at around month 35 since the last low.” This timing would place the projected peak around “October of 2025,” giving “another 12 months to an expected or projected peak.” He notes that this is not set in stone and that the peak could come “three, four, five months earlier,” as market movements “can come in many different flavors.”
Turning to the immediate future, Loukas admits that the next two months are “a little murky,” with “a lot of factors still at play right now.” He brings up the upcoming US election on November 4th, mentioning that “Trump and the GOP have really been pushing crypto and Bitcoin,” and that “the market is certainly going to respond very, very favorably to an election win by the GOP purely because of their stance on crypto.” However, he clarifies that he doesn’t think “it matters one bit” who wins, as Bitcoin has thrived even when “governments have been very hostile towards it.”
Loukas speculates that the market might “trend sideways into that period in November,” and that a significant move might not occur until after the election concludes. He suggests that “we still have around three to four weeks of some trending sideways action,” and he would be “highly surprised if this market can push into the $70,000s before the election here in the US.”
