The Bitcoin price has recently experienced a significant uptick in volatility, positively impacting its performance as it recovered to $110,000 after opening the week at $107,000.
Despite this, Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain momentum near all-time high levels, combined with increasing selling pressure over the past month, has led some to speculate that the current bull run may have peaked.
Analysts at The Bull Theory, on the other hand, have identified key indicators suggesting a shift in Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, with potential for the ongoing bullish trend to extend into 2026.
Anticipating Bitcoin Price Peak In Q2 2026
In a poston social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the analysts explained that the typical Bitcoin price pattern has historically followed a straightforward rhythm: Halving, a 12–18 month rally, a blow-off top, and then a bear market. This pattern has held true for over a decade, but recent data indicates a significant change.
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According to their analysis, Bitcoin is transitioning from a four-year cycle to a five-year cycle, with the next peak anticipated around the second quarter of 2026. This change is attributed to deeper structural shifts within the global economy.
Governments are increasingly rolling over debt for longer periods, business cycles are extending, and liquidity waves are moving through the financial system at a slower pace.
The daily chart shows BTC’s volatility on the rise with a new surge on Thursday above $110,000. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
One key factor pointed by the analysts influencing this lag is that when central banks cease tightening their monetary policies, it typically takes 6 to 12 months for liquidity to reach the markets.
The easing signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell in the third quarter of 2025, such as indications of ending balance-sheet contraction, are expected to impact markets well into early 2026, rather than having an immediate effect.
Additionally, this delay is evident outside the US China’s money supply (M2) has surged to more than double that of the US and continues to expand. Historically, when China’s liquidity grows faster than that of the US, the Bitcoin price tends to rally a few months later, thereby extending the cycle into the first half of 2026.
Japan’s new Prime Minister has also initiated an economic package aimed at combating inflation, which is expected to further contribute to global liquidity.
On-Chain Data Shows Institutional Accumulation
This current cycle is also characterized by institutional accumulation rather than retail hype. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and funds are gradually purchasing and holding Bitcoin for extended periods.
Despite the current market conditions, retail interest in Bitcoin remains subdued, with Google Trends showing significantly lower search interest compared to 2021 levels.
This indicates that the market is currently in a phase of quiet expansion rather than widespread mania, and retail euphoria—which typically signals the end of market cycles—has yet to materialize.
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On-chain data supports this mid-cycle structure, revealing that institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin, exchange reserves are near multi-year lows, and miner selling pressure has diminished since the Halving event.
Bitcoin reserve on exchanges drop to historical lows. Source: The Bull Theory on X
While the four-year Halving model remains relevant, the analysts assert that it is now being reshaped by macro liquidity dynamics, institutional pacing, and elongated global cycles. Consequently, the true peak of this bull run may align more closely with Q2 2026 rather than 2025.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s violent futures deleveraging earlier this month reset market positioning but did not break the broader bull trend, according to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant. Speaking on the Milk Road podcast on October 20, Moreno argued that the path to fresh highs remains open if spot demand stabilizes and the macro overhang from US–China tariff negotiations clears. The key inflection he’s watching is Bitcoin reclaiming its on-chain traders’ realized price near $115,000. “The resistance will be around $115K,” he said. “If the price goes above that… the range that we could expect is $150–$195K. To the downside… it’s around like $100K.”
Bitcoin Bull Run Is Reset
Moreno characterized the October 10 deleveraging as the largest dollar liquidation in the history of Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetuals, with roughly $20 billion in open interest wiped out in a single day as total OI fell from an all-time high near $78 billion to around $58 billion, later hovering closer to $56 billion. He noted that in unit terms the event was “a little bit short of the FTX liquidations,” but emphasized that the dollar magnitude reflected today’s larger derivatives base, not a structural break.
The relative resilience of spot price—Bitcoin “only got to… $110,000” that day, after a wick to “103,000” two days prior—underscored, in his view, that demand and the cycle’s price floor sit well above prior cycles even amid forced unwinds. “It doesn’t put you in a bearish market,” Moreno said, adding that buyers still absorbed supply quickly enough to avert a trend break.
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CryptoQuant’s composite “bull score” of ten on-chain indicators had already rolled over before the crash, dropping from roughly 80 to 40 by October 6 as momentum cooled and spot demand began to contract. After the liquidation, the score slid toward 20, which Moreno described as “on the bearish side right now.” He stressed that on-chain metrics are not price predictors so much as risk gauges: “It’s going to signal to you the risks… when all these metrics… converge into telling you there’s increasing risks, then it’s when you have to be more careful.”
Several datapoints pointed to a market that was stretched into the shock. Total crypto open interest set a record near $78 billion just before the event, a classic over-leverage tell. Profit-taking surged above $3 billion in early October as spot neared the prior all-time high in the $124K–$126K zone, fitting CryptoQuant’s “profit–pause–push” framework in which aggressive realization precedes cooling.
Moreno also highlighted that spot demand flipped from growth to contraction around October 6—days before tariff headlines and the liquidation—helping explain why the risk backdrop was deteriorating even without the macro spark. “We were starting to see some high profit taking… not only because of the macro events,” he said.
Who’s Selling, Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
The compositional flow of coins during the drawdown supports the view of a rotation rather than a structural buyer strike. Moreno said “OG” whales and early miners—an aggregate cohort he estimates hold roughly 600,000 BTC excluding Satoshi—resumed distribution as prices pushed past $100K, a recurring dynamic in every cycle as supply migrates to new hands. Institutional demand, by contrast, remained steady.
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Because ETF custodial wallets often bucket between 100 and 1,000 BTC per address for security, CryptoQuant tracks that “dolphins” cohort as a proxy. “That cohort… is still buying,” Moreno said, adding that whales increased their accumulation “during this correction,” with year-over-year holdings expanding “above trend.” Liquidity conditions corroborate the bid: stablecoin market caps, led by USDT, continued to expand through the drawdown, a pattern he would not expect “if we are… in a bear market.”
Altcoins were far more fragile around the shock. Transactions sending altcoins to exchanges spiked to year-to-date highs during the liquidation, signaling a scramble for exits across low-liquidity names. Moreno cautioned that this cycle has been notably selective across sectors rather than a blanket “alt season,” and reiterated a theme that has become more obvious in 2025: robust protocol activity and fee generation no longer translate mechanically into token outperformance without explicit economic linkage. “Even if the protocol is doing well doesn’t necessarily mean that the token is going to do well,” he said.
What To Expect From Q4 And 2026
Macro remains the wild card for Q4. Moreno believes rate-cut expectations are largely embedded—“the market already… has priced what the Fed will do”—and that only an unexpectedly large cut would be a fresh positive catalyst. By contrast, the US–China tariff trajectory is front-and-center. “If we get that out of the way then… a really positive Q4 can resume,” he said, noting that tariff headlines were the proximate trigger for October’s deleveraging and were also behind a sharper demand contraction back in March–May. Until clarity returns and spot demand re-accelerates, he expects chop around well-defined levels.
That leaves Bitcoin boxed between a tactical resistance and a psychological floor. Moreno pegs the traders’ on-chain realized price near $115,000 as first resistance and the $100,000 area—where short-term holders sit on roughly a 10% unrealized loss—as the downside line where forced selling typically abates in bull markets.
A decisive reclaim of $115K would, in his model, validate a run toward $150,000–$195,000. “We’re not that far… from the previous all-time high,” he said, adding that new highs in Q4 are plausible if the tariff overhang resolves. As for the cycle peak, he leans against an extended mania deep into 2026 or 2027, citing CryptoQuant’s diminishing-intensity bull readout even as price has risen. “I would not expect… more than Q1 2026,” he said, with the caveat that timing tops remains guesswork. “Probably we all are going to be wrong.”
Bitcoin is trading around $107,000 after its recent flash crash, maintaining stability to prevent further decline but is yet to return to trading above $110,000. Notably, popular crypto analyst Titan of Crypto shared a detailed Gaussian Channel analysis on X that points to Bitcoin’s macro bull structure remaining intact despite short-term volatility. His post, which was accompanied by a Bitcoin price chart, shows how Bitcoin’s position relative to the Gaussian Channel offers a clear view of the ongoing cycle.
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Bull Market Intact Above Gaussian Channel
Titan of Crypto noted that Bitcoin’s placement above the Gaussian Channel represents strength in the long-term trend. As shown in the weekly candlestick price chart below, the green channel corresponds to bullish phases, while red regions represent bearish downturns, a prime example being the 2022 bear market.
At the time of writing, the upper band is positioned around $101,300 and trending upward. Therefore, Bitcoin’s price action around $107,000 means that it is yet to break into the Gaussian channel and its overall market structure is still solid. From this, it can be inferred that Bitcoin’s current pullback from the October 6 all-time high above $126,000 is only a temporary pause within a larger bull market.
However, although the Gaussian Channel reading looks favorable, Titan of Crypto noted that the indicator should not be treated as a trading trigger. “It’s not a buy signal, it’s a macro context indicator,” he stated. Being above the Gaussian Channel doesn’t necessarily equate to buying more. It simply means the bull market structure is still intact.
The Gaussian Channel works best when combined with other indicators such as trading volume, moving averages, and on-chain accumulation trends to confirm directional momentum.
BTCUSD currently trading at $108,099. Chart: TradingView
Coinbase Premium Gap Turns Red
Speaking of other indicators, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that the Coinbase Premium Gap, a metric comparing Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase versus other exchanges, has turned red. As shown in the chart below, Coinbase’s Premium Gap went on a sharp decline from positive premium levels above +60 earlier in the week to as low as -40 when the Bitcoin price fell to $101,000.
Interestingly, the Coinbase Premium Gap has increased to around -10 at the time of writing, meaning US investors are starting to turn bullish again. This can be seen as a bullish signal, as similar dips in US demand were recorded between March and April before the Bitcoin price eventually rallied more than 60% to reach new all-time highs.
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However, a red Coinbase Premium Gap alone is not decisive. It should be interpreted alongside other data points, including ETF inflows, trading volume, liquidity, and derivatives funding rates. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $107,120.
Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
Opeyemi is a proficient writer and enthusiast in the exciting and unique cryptocurrency realm. While the digital asset industry was not his first choice, he has remained absolutely drawn since making a foray into the space over two years. Now, Opeyemi takes pride in creating unique pieces unraveling the complexities of blockchain technology and sharing insights on the latest trends in the world of cryptocurrencies.
Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.
Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.
When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.
Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K. Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.
Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.
Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.
Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.
As the week draws to a close, Bitcoin continues to show signs of resilience following its dramatic flash crash to the $101,000 price level last weekend. After days of intense volatility and heavy liquidations across the market, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has managed to stabilize above this level, even reaching as high as $113,400 during the week.
In this context, crypto analyst Tyrex shared a bullish outlook on X, stating that the worst of the downturn is behind and that Bitcoin could soon be gearing up for an upward surge back to $117,000.
Tyrex believes Bitcoin’s repeated defense of the $108,000 to $105,000 zone is a strong indication that the market has already bottomed out. Throughout the week, price action remained around this critical area despite continued selling pressure. This means there is the presence of a firm support at this level.
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The analyst explained that if the correction were still unfolding, Bitcoin would have already slipped below $108,000. Instead, the consistent retest and hold of this range suggests exhaustion of the bearish trend and a setup for a rebound. Such resilience after major drawdowns has often preceded powerful recovery rallies in previous Bitcoin market cycles.
According to Tyrex, Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase is forming a base for the next leg higher. He projected that the price could climb toward $117,000 in the coming sessions once short-term resistance levels are cleared. The broader technical structure still favors the bulls, with many traders viewing last weekend’s crash as a reset that flushed out excessive leverage rather than a signal of long-term weakness. Momentum indicators have also begun to flatten out, and we could see renewed buying interest from both retail and institutional traders into the next week.
Altcoins To Benefit From Bitcoin’s Strength
Tyrex also suggested that the broader crypto market will follow Bitcoin’s lead once it begins to move decisively upward. The majority of altcoins followed Bitcoin’s crash last weekend and plunged massively. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all fell below support levels as market sentiment soured.
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However, smaller assets are beginning to stabilize alongside Bitcoin, due to confidence among traders expecting the worst to be over. Tyrex warned investors not to misinterpret the ongoing sideways movement as a sign of further decline, noting that “the market already crashed, let it rest.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $105,300. Heading into the new weekend, Bitcoin’s ability to close the week above $105,000 could set the stage for a breakout to $111,000 and $117,000. If this scenario unfolds, Tyrex’s projection that the crash has concluded and a new uptrend is forming could soon prove accurate. However, failure to hold above $105,000 could lead to a further downtrend.
BTC trading at $103,981 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin slipped below three-day Ichimoku cloud support on Wednesday, prompting market technician Dr Cat (@DoctorCatX) to flag the first decisive warning for bulls while outlining a tight sequence of conditional signals into month-end. Sharing a chart on X, he wrote: “Bulls finally lost the 3D kumo support which is the first clear red flag to look for.” He cautioned that the breakdown does not guarantee a straight-line slide, adding that “the kumo is very thick here which means the price can be very spiky/turbulent and even further down moves may be ‘bumpy’ for bears with bounces etc…”
Why Bitcoin’s Next Bull Window Opens October 31
The analyst framed the next tests through the lens of Ichimoku’s time-price structure and the weekly baseline. “Probably the clearest indication for now to watch for would be the time cycles and whether the weekly Kijun Sen will hold,” he said, specifying levels at $105.700 for the current week and “$109,559” for next week. In Ichimoku methodology, the weekly Kijun Sen functions as a mean-reversion axis; sustained closes below it typically confirm momentum deterioration, while defenses of the line can reassert trend control without requiring an immediate new high.
Bitcoin Ichimoku cloud analysis | Source: X @DoctorCatX
Dr Cat’s near-term line in the sand on daily closing conditions is clear: “If today closes above $113K we don’t have an indication for an immediate danger of a bearish continuation.” That threshold sits alongside his broader stance that separates time horizons. He reiterated that his “Long term = Bullish with the same targets I’ve shared many times,” but recast the shorter outlook as “Short to mid term = Neutral, range between ~$100K and prev ATH.”
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Rather than declaring a hard bottom, he now views sentiment as a risk factor in its own right: “I said recently that the bottom should be put by the 13th of October — and even already in. But today after observing the sentiment I have strong concerns about red flags… I haven’t seen in a very long time so much mass bullish confidence and even arrogance across Twitter. So at this point I will simply not try to guess whether the bottom is in or not.”
He mapped out escalation points if downside resumes. “Short term bearish triggers would be a renew of the crash low briefly after the 13th of October, mid-term bearish trigger: the same but after the 19th, even better after the 26th of October.” In other words, a swift retest immediately after October 13 would raise short-term alarms, while fresh lows registered after October 19 or October 26 would strengthen the case that the corrective phase has more to run. He also downplayed the odds of a straight snapback, warning that “even if the bottom is in, a V-shaped recovery remains extremely unlikely.”
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Against that caution, Dr Cat still identifies a specific window for bullish validation. Anchoring to Ichimoku’s Chikou Span alignment on the daily and three-day timeframes, he said “the earliest window of opportunity for a bull breakout above ATH is the 31st of October.” That timing caveat is critical: the October 31 marker is a first possible opening, not a guarantee, contingent on price stabilizing around or above the weekly Kijun and avoiding those date-based bearish triggers.
The shared chart underscores the nuance: price slipping beneath the three-day cloud is a mechanical negative, but the thickness of the cloud and proximity of higher-timeframe supports imply choppy discovery rather than a clean trend resolution before the end of the month.
Taken together, Dr Cat’s framework is binary but conditional. A daily close back above $113,000 would blunt “immediate” continuation risk and keep the weekly Kijun defenses in play at $105,700 this week and $109,559 next week. Failure to hold those rails — particularly if accompanied by renewed lows after the 19th or 26th — would harden the corrective bias and defer any credible breakout attempt.
As the calendar tightens, the market now has a clear checklist into October 31, when, per his model, the first “window of opportunity” opens for a move that could credibly threaten and surpass the previous all-time high.
After a turbulent few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has resumed its downtrend, currently retracing toward $111,000. This marks a 12% decline from its recent peak of $126,000, which raises concerns among market experts who suggest that the bull run may be closer to its end than many investors believe.
End Of Bitcoin Bull Cycle Within Nine Days?
On October 14, market analyst CryptoBirb, took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to assert that the bullish cycle is nearing its conclusion, stating that it may end within the next nine days.
He referenced the Cycle Peak Countdown indicator, which suggests that Bitcoin is 99.3% through its current cycle, having lasted 1,058 days. According to CryptoBirb, this final stage is characterized by a “textbook shakeout of weak hands,” a common pattern observed before market peaks.
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CryptoBirb emphasized that October 24 serves as a critical target date, just nine days away, and labeled the recent crash as “right on schedule.” He further explained that the market is deep within the peak zone, with 543 days elapsing since the last Bitcoin Halving, exceeding the historical peak window of 518 to 580 days.
Bitcoin price performance after its Halving. Source: CryptoBirb on X
The sentiment in the market also appears to have shifted dramatically, with the Fear & Greed Index plummeting from 71 to 38, indicating a reset from fear to euphoria. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also dropped from 67 to 47, suggesting that this emotional washout may create an ideal launchpad for a final euphoric surge.
However, technical indicators show mixed signals: while the Average True Range (ATR) has expanded to 4,040, indicating higher volatility, the RSI’s position at 47 suggests a reset momentum.
What On-Chain Metrics Suggest
Institutional investors have also begun to shift their strategies, as evidenced by recent Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) flows, which reversed from $627 million in inflows to $4.5 million in outflows.
Ethereum ETF outflows reached $174.9 million, indicating that smart money is taking profits before retail investors potentially fear of missing out (FOMO) in. CryptoBirb asserts that this behavior aligns with a classic distribution-to-accumulation transition.
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On-chain metrics reflect a cooling market, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) dropping to 0.522 from 0.556, and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) declining to 2.15 from 2.45. These profit-taking actions may be creating the necessary space for a final euphoric push.
When examining October’s performance, Bitcoin is down 2.09% month-to-date, contrasting sharply with its historical average of a 19.78% increase. This underperformance could actually be a bullish sign, suggesting that a significant move may still be on the horizon in the final weeks of the month.
In summary, the current cycle appears to be 99.3% complete. It has already spent 25 days in the peak zone and experienced a reset in sentiment and institutional distribution, as well as weak performance in October. However, if the analyst’s thesis proves right, this blending could turn into a perfect storm for a final surge before entering a new crypto winter.
The daily chart shows BTC’s increased volatility met with major price swings. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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Ostium Labs’ Market Outlook #55 argues that Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe bull structure survived last week’s volatility and now points “back to the highs,” provided spot holds above $107,000. “Whilst we trade above $107k, I think the next move is back to the highs, with $112k likely to act as local support,” the note states, adding that the firm still expects price to trade into “that confluence of overhead resistance at $133k by month-end.”
The team frames last week’s deleveraging as the “great reset,” contending that the largest liquidation event in crypto history removed excess leverage without breaking weekly structure. On the weekly chart, no major support was lost and the wick down to roughly $107,000 was reclaimed into a $115,000 close, which Ostium reads as confirmation that momentum remains bullish on higher timeframes. Invalidation is precise: “A weekly close below last week’s low is now the obvious invalidation… close through $107k… and we have a more pressing concern, where we undoubtedly then trade into $99k.”
Bitcoin weekly chart | Source: X @OstiumLabs
On the daily, Ostium notes a classic sweep-and-reversal sequence. Price twice tagged the prior range high near $126.3k, failed to hold above $123.8k, and then “collapsed,” ultimately wicking into the 200-day moving average—an area the desk had flagged as a likely terminal level for any early-October capitulation.
Bitcoin daily chart | Source: X @OstiumLabs
The view from here is unambiguous: “Anyone expecting sub-$100k will remain sidelined for a long time—if you didn’t get it on the largest liquidation event in crypto history, I don’t think you’re getting it until we enter a bear market.” Tactical invalidation on this timeframe is a daily close below the 200-DMA, which would put the 360-DMA near $100,000 in play and constitute Ostium’s “line in the sand for a full-blown flip into bear market territory.”
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Path dependency matters for the upside call. Ostium expects prior highs around $112,000 to act as support and form a higher low, with “acceptance back above ~$116k” setting a rotation to the top of the range at $123.8k and then “price discovery beyond that.” The desk’s near-term timing is surprisingly punchy: “Gun to my head I think we trade $125k by early next week and $133k by month-end.”
For traders, the preferred long setup is early-week weakness into $110k–$112k to establish a higher low, using a daily close below $107k (hard stop $105k) as risk, and targeting at least $121k with scope for much higher. A counter-trend short, by contrast, would require a grind up into the $121k confluence, a rejection and daily close back below $118k, and then a fade into the $110k–$112k zone—only if the higher-low hasn’t already formed.
Positioning evidence, in Ostium’s view, buttresses the reset-then-extend thesis. The firm highlights obliterated open interest, Binance Net Longs back to “Liberation Day” lows, compressed three-month annualized basis, and fresh liquidation maps for one-week and one-month horizons—all consistent with a cleaner tape for trend continuation.
The calendar this week is dense but navigable: a speech-heavy week (Powell, Bailey, Lagarde), the NY Empire State Manufacturing print, the Philadelphia Fed survey, and US Industrial Production. Ostium’s framework treats these events as potential catalysts rather than trend definers; so long as $107,000 holds and $112,000 functions as a springboard, the structural bias remains higher toward $133,000.
At the core of the thesis is a binary investor psychology after the purge. “These sorts of events mark turning points: either you are now cemented in your belief that… the bear market has begun… or you are cemented in your belief that the leverage washout gives us the runway for higher for longer prices into Q1 next year,” Ostium writes. The desk is firmly in the latter camp, reiterating that Bitcoin “looks more bullish today than it did at the beginning of last week.”
Briefly beyond Bitcoin, Ostium’s cross-asset read tilts supportive for the crypto beta complex if near-term conditions align. For Ethereum, weekly structure “looks nothing like a top,” with a decisive close above trendline resistance and $4,400 expected to trigger an all-time-high breakout; the team believes “ETH trades through $4,950 within 10 days… toward $5,750 in November,” and sees the Q4 low as likely in.
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On ETH/BTC, the desk calls last week’s flush into 0.0319 a higher-low and anticipates ETH outperformance into year-end, contingent on reclaiming 0.0375 and eventually breaking the trendline—a dynamic that, if realized, could cap BTC dominance without undermining Bitcoin’s own trend. The DXY rally is viewed as late-stage: resistance near 100 and a looming rollover would reduce macro headwinds for risk assets.
For US equities, Ostium still expects “higher for longer,” eyeing fresh SPX highs by month-end and a strong November as buyback blackouts end and earnings season progresses; improving equity breadth tends to coincide with constructive crypto flows.
Finally, in “OTHERS,” the altcoin index printed a historic wick to the 360-week MA before reclaiming support; with derivatives positioning “utterly decimated,” Ostium now expects a higher local low, a November reclaim of the yearly open near $335bn, and, if confirmed, a push toward cycle and ATH resistance—conditions that usually track with a healthier, less fragile Bitcoin uptrend.
Taken together, the desk’s message is consistent across timeframes and assets: the reset did its job, the invalidation is clear at $107,000, $112,000 should be the pivot, and the upside waypoint is $133,000, with the macro calendar more likely to modulate the path than to derail the destination. As Ostium summarizes, “Whilst we trade above $107k… the next move is back to the highs.”
Following the massive crash that Bitcoin and the entire crypto market suffered over the weekend, the Fear & Greed Index has been pushed down to its lowest level in the last six months. This index, which measures the market sentiment and shows on a scale how investors are feeling about the crypto market, has now fallen back into the Extreme Fear territory. The number on the scale now shows the lowest level it has been since the market crash back in April 2025.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Sees Major Crash
The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index uses a number of factors to determine how investors are feeling about the market. It takes into account things like volatility, social sentiment aggregated across different social media platforms, market volume and momentum, and market dominance to come to a figure.
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The data is aggregated, which puts it on a scale of 1-100, with 1-25 being Extreme Fear, 26-46 being Fear, 47-54 being Neutral, 55-75 representing Greed, and 76-100 representing Extreme Greed. Each of these shows either bullishness, bearishness, or nonchalance in the market.
The most recent data shows that the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index crashed to 24 on Sunday. This puts the index firmly in Extreme Fear territory, suggesting that investors are extremely cautious at this point. It also shows a reluctance to enter into any positions at this time.
Source: alternative.me
This is the result of the massive liquidation event that happened last Friday, with crypto traders losing over $19 billion in one day. Thus, it is no surprise that fear has gripped the market. However, this would also present a unique opportunity in the market.
Buy When The Market Is Bleeding
One of the oldest sayings in the financial world is to “buy when there is blood on the streets.” This represents times of extreme losses, where most investors are scared to put their money in the market. Thus, with the market teetering on Extreme Fear, it could be the time to buy.
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The last time that the market declined into Extreme Fear this low was back in April 2025, and what followed was a rally that saw the Bitcoin price reach new all-time highs in May 2025. If this trend holds, then the market could be looking at a possible rapid increase.
By Sunday, the market was already recovering, with the Bitcoin price crossing $114,000 and Ethereum making its way back above $4,000. It is still quite early to tell if the market is in a full recovery trend, but with prices already bouncing, it could signal the next wave of gains.
Crypto analyst PlanB has explained why the Bitcoin price may never drop below $100,000 again. This comes as market participants continue to speculate on whether the flagship crypto could fall below this psychological level if a full-blown bear market were to occur.
Bitcoin Price Has Likely Turned $100,000 Into Support
PlanB stated in an X post that he will not be surprised if the Bitcoin price does not drop below $100,000 again as the market witnesses the $100,000 resistance turn into $100,000 support. The analyst further noted that the September close was the fifth consecutive monthly close above that psychological price level.
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PlanB stated that the same thing happened when the Bitcoin price was trading at $10,000, $1,000, $100, and $10. The analyst’s remarks came as he noted that 63% of people think that Bitcoin will drop below $100,000. Notably, there were more calls for a drop below $100,000 towards the end of September when BTC dropped to as low as $108,000. Crypto influencer Ansem was among those who predicted that the flagship crypto would likely retest $90,000.
However, the Bitcoin price has since staged a remarkable comeback from the $108,000 lows, rallying to a new all-time high (ATH) above $126,000 to start the month. As a result, BTC is already up 7% to start the month, with October notably the flagship crypto’s second-best performing month after November, based on historical data.
It is worth noting that the Bitcoin price has traded above $100,000 since May 8 and has now been above this psychological level for over 150 days, its longest streak. Meanwhile, market participants are currently betting that it will likely stay this way. According to Polymarket data, there is only a 25% chance that BTC will drop below $100,000 by the end of this year.
BTC Bull Market Still On
Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto declared that the crypto market is still on and questioned why market participants were in a rush to call the top. The analyst noted that the Stoch Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossovers keep aligning with strength. He added that the chart will tell them when the bull run is over, but for now, that is not the case.
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In another analysis, Titan of Crypto revealed that the Bitcoin price continues to print higher highs and higher lows. Based on this, he raised the possibility that BTC could rally to as high as $160,000 by the end of the year. This aligns with predictions by JPMorgan and Standard Chartered, which predict that BTC can reach $165,000 and $200,000, respectively, by year-end.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $122,000, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
BTC trading at $121,768 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
With the latest rally to a new all-time high above $125,700, the Bitcoin price looks to have begun another path that could lead to multiple new all-time highs. At this time, market sentiment has moved back into the positive, and this continues to show in the way the price has held above $120,000 despite the corrective dips. Crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto believes that this means that the Bitcoin price is set on its path to $150,000, so this report takes a look at the breakdown.
Why The Bitcoin Price Is Headed To $150,000 And The Best Time To Buy
In the analysis that was shared with over 478,000 followers on the X (formerly Twitter) platform, CrediBULL Crypto highlights the recent move that saw the Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high. According to the analyst, the fact that it was an impulse move led to this all-time high is bullish, and shows that the cryptocurrency is ready for the next leg-up that will lead it to $150,000.
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Naturally, there have been pullbacks when the Bitcoin price has retested the $121,000-$122,000 zone. However, the price has held up, and most especially, it is well above $108,400, which was the start of the impulse wave. Given that this level was the bottom that began this recent move, the Bitcoin price remains bullish as long as it continues to trade above it.
This also drives into the fact that there are particular areas of interest from here that would make for a good entry point. The crypto analyst points out the next demand zone that is lying firmly between $108,000 and $118,000, due to how the last move began and played out.
Source: X
CrediBULL Crypto explains that for the crypto traders who had shorted the move between $108,000 and $118,000 and are now stuck with underwater bags, a return to this zone would create a strong area of demand. This is because these traders would be looking to close their underwater positions or possibly refill their positions at these levels. Either way, the outcome is the same: it would create a lot of demand at this level, making it a potential area for a bounce.
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Going by this logic, if the Bitcoin price does retrace back anywhere between $108,000 and $118,000, then it would be an ideal time to buy. “Dips into that zone of 108-118k are a blessing if we get them- and if not, well then enjoy the ride to 150k,” the analyst stated.
However, this depends entirely on the Bitcoin price holding above the $108,400 start point. If the price were to fall below this level, then it is possible it would invalidate this bullish thesis and trigger more sell-offs once again.
My name is Godspower Owie, and I was born and brought up in Edo State, Nigeria. I grew up with my three siblings who have always been my idols and mentors, helping me to grow and understand the way of life.
My parents are literally the backbone of my story. They’ve always supported me in good and bad times and never for once left my side whenever I feel lost in this world. Honestly, having such amazing parents makes you feel safe and secure, and I won’t trade them for anything else in this world.
I was exposed to the cryptocurrency world 3 years ago and got so interested in knowing so much about it. It all started when a friend of mine invested in a crypto asset, which he yielded massive gains from his investments.
When I confronted him about cryptocurrency he explained his journey so far in the field. It was impressive getting to know about his consistency and dedication in the space despite the risks involved, and these are the major reasons why I got so interested in cryptocurrency.
Trust me, I’ve had my share of experience with the ups and downs in the market but I never for once lost the passion to grow in the field. This is because I believe growth leads to excellence and that’s my goal in the field. And today, I am an employee of Bitcoinnist and NewsBTC news outlets.
My Bosses and co-workers are the best kinds of people I have ever worked with, in and outside the crypto landscape. I intend to give my all working alongside my amazing colleagues for the growth of these companies.
Sometimes I like to picture myself as an explorer, this is because I like visiting new places, I like learning new things (useful things to be precise), I like meeting new people – people who make an impact in my life no matter how little it is.
One of the things I love and enjoy doing the most is football. It will remain my favorite outdoor activity, probably because I’m so good at it. I am also very good at singing, dancing, acting, fashion and others.
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I aspire to be a boss someday, having people work under me just as I’ve worked under great people. This is one of my biggest dreams professionally, and one I do not take lightly. Everyone knows the road ahead is not as easy as it looks, but with God Almighty, my family, and shared passion friends, there is no stopping me.
After months of uncertainty and sideways trading, fresh technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may have finally exited its bear trap phase. A leading crypto pundit indicates the market has entered a classic cycle of emotions, transitioning from fear to optimism. If this trend continues, the next phase could spark a major rally, with altcoins set to explode.
Bitcoin Bear Trap Ends, Altcoins Next
Crypto analyst Ardizor posted on X social media on Wednesday that Bitcoin has officially reached the end of its bear trap stage. He argued that the recent downturns were not signs of further collapse but a final shakeout before the next stage of the cycle.
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To support his view, the crypto expert shared a chart illustrating the classic psychology and emotional transitions of a market cycle. From early momentum building to euphoric peaks and painful capitulation, the chart identifies where traders currently stand in the market. Ardizorn’s chart also emphasized that the declines and false breakdowns that rattled investors and caused extreme fear in recent weeks have concluded, and now, the market is at the stage of “renewed optimism.”
Interestingly, this shift has led the analyst to believe that altcoins could soon start outperforming as traders rotate their capital from BTC. Based on this trend, Ardizor boldly predicts that altcoins will explode next, with many potentially reaching new all-time highs.
His outlook is reinforced by another market analyst, Mister Crypto, who argues that September was merely a bear trap for Bitcoin, and that October, often dubbed “Uptober” in trading circles, will spark a new bullish phase, with altcoins poised to outperform dramatically. Adding further weight to the bullish case, crypto expert Jelle pointed out that both of Bitcoin’s last two cycles lasted exactly 1,064 days. If history repeats, the current cycle could peak around October 27, giving altcoins extra room to perform strongly into late November.
Altcoin Season On The Horizon
With the broader altcoin market already recovering from past declines, market analyst Chiefy paints a similarly bullish picture for these assets in 2025. His chart demonstrates a series of breakouts, each marking a significant surge in altcoin valuations relative to Bitcoin. According to the crypto expert, altcoins could reach their breakout stage on October 5, ushering in what he calls “the biggest altseason in history.”
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The analyst’s chart highlights past breakout points that have multiplied prices by 120x, 175x, and 150x, with the next stage projected to reach as high as 200x. This exponential growth pattern mirrors what traders witnessed in previous cycles, reinforcing the idea that the crypto market trends to rhyme, if not repeat.
Chiefy has stated that the unfolding altcoin season could push prices to new ATHs and deliver massive opportunities for traders. He highlighted that, after months of consolidation and endless shakeouts, the market momentum has officially shifted toward a clear uptrend phase, with low-cap cryptocurrencies poised to kick off rallies. According to him, back in 2017 and 2021, traders who accumulated altcoins in this stage saw life-changing gains.
BTC trading at $120,330 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Market expert Tony Severino has raised some concerns with the current Bitcoin price action on the weekly chart. This comes as the flagship crypto trades below $110,000, with predictions that it could further drop below the psychological $100,000 level.
Bitcoin Price Forms Bearish Pattern On Weekly Chart
Severino revealed in an X post that the Bitcoin price is potentially forming an Evening Star pattern on the weekly chart, something he is wary of. He noted that this pattern is forming right at the Bollinger Band basis line, at around $111,600, during the tightest BB squeeze in BTC’s history.
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The market expert had earlier revealed that the Bitcoin price’s weekly Bollinger Bands are officially the tightest in the entire history of BTCUSD price action. Essentially, BTC is currently trading within a tight range, indicating low volatility. Severino’s accompanying chart shows that the upper BB is at around $122,000, the basis BB is at $111,600, while the lower BB is at $101,000.
Meanwhile, the Evening Star pattern suggests that the bears are taking control from the bulls, putting the Bitcoin price at risk of a further downtrend. With the Bollinger bands being this tight, Severino may be cautious of how this could lead to a BTC decline to the lower BB basis. Crypto analyst Bob Loukas confirmed that the bears are in control and indicated that BTC could still drop below $100,000.
He noted that the Bitcoin price is looking to print its Weekly Cycle Low, although he opined that BTC is holding up well despite the current downtrend. The analyst declared that a rally to $118,000 will confirm the start of a new cycle.
Until then, the bears will remain in control. His accompanying chart showed that the flagship crypto could risk dropping below $100,000 during this period when the bears are in control. However, in the long run, Loukas still expects the Bitcoin price to rally to as high as $140,000.
BTC Needs To Reclaim $116,300
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also warned that the Bitcoin price needs to reclaim $116,300 or risk dropping as low as $94,334 based on the Pricing Bands. He had earlier stated that $107,200 is the crucial support for Bitcoin. The analyst claimed that a drop below that support level would put $100,000 or even $93,000 in play.
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Meanwhile, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto noted that the Bitcoin price has broken below the trendline at $110,000. He remarked that confirmation is still needed and that the lagging span must follow to validate this bearish move. However, the analyst is one of those who doesn’t believe that BTC has topped, noting that the market is in a period of fear and that this has never marked the cycle top.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $109,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin trading at $109,277 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has experienced a sharp price drop in recent days, but one well-followed crypto analyst remains undaunted. Popular chartist Egrag Crypto says Bitcoin is still in a bull market, even with the pullback. He believes what is happening now is only part of a larger repeating pattern that has played out since the end of 2022. According to him, this cycle is not over yet, and the market still has another strong upward move before an actual bear phase begins.
Bitcoin Holds Strong Above Key Levels
Egrag Crypto explains that Bitcoin follows a clear pattern that has been in place since December 2022. First, the price surges upward, then it retests support, bounces back, corrects slightly, and makes a new local high.
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Source: X
Right now, the most critical level to watch is $103,000. As long as Bitcoin does not fall below that level, Egrag says there is no real danger. Instead, he expects one more big pump to arrive before the cycle tops out. His personal target for this move is between $150,000 and $175,000. In his view, this would mark the last push of the current bull run before the market flips to its next bear phase.
Egrag stresses that corrections along the way are normal and should not cause panic. He believes traders often get caught up in short-term drops without realizing that they are only part of a larger trend. Looking at the bigger picture, it is clear that the Bitcoin bull market still has room to run.
Market Parallels With Gold Suggest Bull Run Is Intact
Egrag Crypto also draws a strong comparison between Bitcoin and gold. He points out that many analysts once thought gold had peaked at a technical target of $3,500. Instead, the price continued to rise due to what he calls a short squeeze. This sudden surge, he says, was meant to trap retail buyers into a “suckers rally.”
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He notes that gold demand is currently so high that even shop owners with decades of experience say they have never seen business like this. To Egrag, this kind of hype is usually a warning that the cycle is near its top. He expects gold to eventually fall by $600 to $1,000 once Russia and Ukraine restore peace, a move that he believes would once again confirm the cyclical nature of the market.
For Bitcoin, the same lesson applies. Despite loud voices calling the bull run over, Egrag insists that the cycle is still alive. He views the current downturn as merely a pause before another significant surge. He plans to invest around $30,000 in the following macro cycle and later rotate into strong altcoins. In his view, staying patient and respecting cycles is the most effective approach.
Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) told viewers late on September 25 that Bitcoin’s pullback is tracking a familiar seasonal and structural script—and that the market’s next major impulse hinges on a clearly defined support range. “Hold $107k to $98K,” he said, calling the zone the fulcrum for the bull cycle’s next leg. “That’s it. It’s that simple.”
Opening his stream amid a rush of bearish sentiment as BTC price dipped to $108,651, Kevin argued the drawdown should not surprise disciplined traders. He framed the current move in the context of months of caution dating back to early August, when he began highlighting weekly bearish divergences across Bitcoin, Ethereum and the total altcoin market (Total2), into what he described as four-plus-year resistance zones.
“Everyone thinks these symmetrical triangle patterns after a move higher are continuation patterns,” he said, “but in reality, in the crypto market, very, very rarely do these break out to the upside.” He pointed to a progression of smaller impulse highs since late 2023 and reiterated that despite sharp rallies in select altcoins, the majors failed to clear “any major resistance levels.”
Bitcoin Top In Until Proven Otherwise
The anchor of Kevin’s case is confluence on higher time frames. On Bitcoin’s weekly chart, he outlined rising price highs against falling momentum—“simple strength and momentum indicators,” not signals by themselves but context that “has been dwindling for a very long time.”
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Total2, he added, registered “a triple top on the weekly” beneath roughly $1.71–$1.74 trillion—“the all-be-all resistance level”—with weekly RSI and MACD rolling over. Stocks of momentum, in his read, are resetting precisely where they should amid historically thin late-summer liquidity. “Q3 is never a good quarter for crypto,” Kevin said. “August, September are terrible months. They always are.”
TOTAL2 market cap analysis | Source: X @Kev_Capital_TA
Against that backdrop, he argued that USDT dominance remains the most reliable inter-market compass. “USDT dominance is the greatest chart ever. There is no better chart,” he said, walking through a macro descending triangle with a flat-bottom support near 3.9–3.7% and repeated rallies to a falling trendline that have mapped crypto cycle lows and highs for two years.
Each approach to the flat bottom, he noted, has carved a W- or inverse-head-and-shoulders-style base in USDT.D while Bitcoin distributed near local tops; each rejection at the downtrend has coincided with crypto inflections. “You literally don’t need any chart in all of crypto,” he said. “All you need is Bitcoin and USDT dominance and you would have played this cycle absolutely perfectly.”
USDT dominance chart | Source: X @Kev_Capital_TA
From a tactical standpoint, Kevin flagged a three-month BTC liquidity “heat map” shelf near $106.8K and the 21-week EMA—the bull-market support band—near $109.2K as natural magnets, with the lower weekly Bollinger Band sitting around $101K.
He stressed he doesn’t want to see “Bitcoin lose 106.8K” if the cycle remains intact, though a wick into that area to “swipe the liquidity” would be consistent with prior resets. He framed $98K as the line that should not break decisively. “There’s a whole lot of support in that range,” he said. “I’d be pretty shocked if Bitcoin wasn’t able to bounce in there somewhere.”
All Eyes On Q4 Seasonality
Kevin tied structural signals to an explicit macro checklist, arguing that lasting cycle tops and bottoms align with fundamental catalysts rather than charts alone. He cited 2021’s inflation spike and the onset of the Fed’s hiking cycle as the driver of that cycle’s 55–60% drawdown, the 2017 CME Bitcoin futures launch as a blow-off top catalyst, and the FTX collapse as the final capitulation in 2022 amid weekly bullish divergence.
“There’s always a macro-related reason that correlates with the charts,” he said. By contrast, he sees no such cycle-ending macro trigger today: inflation gauges have been “very choppy” but contained; the Fed is widely expected to ease into year-end provided labor softens; and seasonality favors Q4.
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He underscored the near-term calendar—core PCE, CPI and labor data in the first half of October—as decisive for risk appetite. “Sometime in mid-October… we’ll start to have an idea of where this market is really going to go,” he said. “If we get to mid-October and Bitcoin’s holding key support… and we get good macroeconomic data, we get another rate cut… the probabilities favor that Bitcoin will [go higher]—and then you’re in Q4.”
Volatility positioning, he added, argues for a sharp directional move once the reset completes. On the weekly Bollinger Band Width, Kevin said BTC has printed record-low readings three times this cycle—each in Q3—and each episode began with a downside break of 18–29% before surging to fresh highs.
“There is a massive move coming for Bitcoin soon. It has not happened yet,” he said, noting spot volumes have declined since November while bands have tightened to historic extremes. A test of the lower weekly band near $101K “is possible,” but not required, in his view; the key is that the broader $107K–$98K corridor functions as a springboard.
Kevin was equally explicit about invalidation and upside triggers. He labeled $125K “a major top for now” and said the market needs weekly and monthly closes above that level to confirm trend continuation.
On dominance, he highlighted 59.0% and 60.28% as near-term resistance that could fuel a BTC-led phase if reclaimed; otherwise, he expects leadership to rotate back to altcoins once Bitcoin bases and USDT dominance prints a lower high. “Stop looking at the altcoins” until those inter-market signals flip, he advised, emphasizing patience, risk management and taking profits into resistance.
His bottom line combines restraint with opportunism. “Hold $107k to 98K,” he repeated. “Go into October. Get through the first couple of weeks of macroeconomic data… Bitcoin will inevitably find a low on the back of that data and then eventually go higher.” But he warned that if macro arrives benign and “Bitcoin is still deteriorating,” traders should be ready to reassess the cycle thesis. Until then, Kevin’s message remains unapologetically unglamorous: respect the seasonal chop, track the inter-market tells, and let the higher-time-frame levels do the talking. “Being right is the best pat on the back you can get,” he said. “Not just saying things that get you a lot of clicks.”
The crypto market has long moved in the shadow of Bitcoin, because for years, its rallies and sharp drops have pulled nearly every other digital asset such as XRP with it. However, according to Versan Aljarrah, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, the XRP token could break away from this cycle. According to him, XRP is on a different mission, one that goes beyond speculation and closer to real-world use. That role is why he says it will not mirror Bitcoin’s path, and why a decoupling is now on the horizon.
Versan Aljarrah Reveals XRP’s Institutional Role Sets It Apart From Bitcoin
Aljarrah stresses that XRP does not follow Bitcoin’s “digital gold” story. While Bitcoin serves as a store of value, XRP serves a very different purpose. In the X post, the expert refers to the cryptocurrency as a bridge asset for banks and financial institutions.
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In today’s financial world, cross-border payments can often be slow, expensive, and risky because of foreign-exchange issues. XRP addresses these problems by cutting out multiple intermediaries. According to Aljarrah, this practical utility places XRP closer to the daily operations of global finance, rather than the speculative trading behavior that defines Bitcoin.
Rather than acting like a typical cryptocurrency, XRP is evolving into core financial infrastructure. That transformation, according to Aljarrah, could move XRP far beyond a purely speculative asset and position it as part of the underlying system that connects currencies and payment networks worldwide.
Why Regulatory Clarity And Adoption Drive XRP Toward Decoupling
For years, one of the biggest obstacles facing XRP was legal uncertainty. Ripple Labs, the company associated with XRP, was embroiled in a lawsuit with the SEC. But that cloud has now lifted. Court rulings have made it clear that XRP sales on public exchanges are not securities transactions, and with the appeals dropped, the case is now closed.
With the court issue resolved, attention is shifting to growth, as developers are now adding new tools for institutions to the XRP ecosystem, including automated market making, stablecoin support, and updated token standards.
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Banks, fintech companies, and payment providers are starting to test and integrate with XRP. At the same time, the XRP Ledger is growing stronger. Ripple has also launched RLUSD, a stablecoin, and is working on obtaining banking licenses worldwide. All these steps point toward a token that evolves into financial infrastructure rather than remaining a speculative play.
Aljarrah notes that these changes mean XRP will no longer move like Bitcoin. Its price will not only depend on market speculation but also on its usage, the strength of regulations, and the growing demand for instant settlement. For these reasons, he believes decoupling is certain. Over time, XRP will carve its own path as adoption spreads and its role in finance becomes more central.
Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead believes a geopolitical shift in reserve management will push adversaries of the United States into Bitcoin at massive scale, calling it “inevitable” that China and Russia eventually hold “trillions of dollars” worth of the asset.
Speaking on Blockworks’ Empire podcast released this week, the billionaire framed the prediction as part of a longer-term rotation in global reserve assets and a response to sanction risk embedded in dollar-denominated holdings. “I think it’ll take a decade or two,” Morehead said, adding that the first movers will likely include US-aligned Gulf states before “the big one” arrives with countries “antagonistic to the United States, like China or Russia.”
Why Russia And China Will Adopt Bitcoin
Morehead anchored his argument in the historical cadence of reserve transitions and the vulnerability of holding claims on a rival’s financial system. “You gotta remember, the reserve currency’s changed every 80 or 100 years… no one’s ever really lasted for more than, let’s call it 100, 110 years,” he said.
While calling it “inconceivable that the dollar will be supplanted” overnight, he warned that countries with large US Treasury positions face concentrated political risk. Citing China’s portfolio, he argued: “It’s really pretty crazy to have your entire country’s life savings in an asset that your potential adversary could literally just cancel.” In his view, that calculus makes it “inevitable” that such countries “will have started to save in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies” within the next decade.
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The provocation lands amid measurable changes in how major economies hold US debt. Official Treasury data for July 2025 show China’s reported Treasury holdings at $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2008 and down markedly over the past decade, a decline often read as gradual diversification of reserves rather than abrupt abandonment.
JUST IN: BILLIONAIRE DAN MOREHEAD JUST SAID IT’S “INEVITABLE” CHINA AND RUSSIA WILL HOLD TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN #BITCOIN
Japan remains the largest holder at roughly $1.15 trillion, with the United Kingdom near $900 billion. The broader pool of foreign-held Treasuries nonetheless hit a record in July. These figures illustrate that while the dollar system remains deep and liquid, China’s share is slipping at the margin—the exact dynamic Morehead argues could accelerate alternative reserve strategies over time.
Morehead’s timeline also intersects with a flurry of policy proposals that, if enacted, would normalize sovereign Bitcoin exposure. In March, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a national digital asset stockpile. Wyoming legislators separately advanced a bill to permit limited Bitcoin investments—capped at 3%—within certain state funds, an incremental step toward institutional reserve management in digital assets at the state level.
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Outside the US, Gulf governments are already experimenting at the edges of sovereign crypto exposure—another plank in Morehead’s thesis. The United Arab Emirates’ has launched state-backed mining initiatives and disclosures suggesting several thousand BTC accumulated on the balance sheet via those operations.
Skeptics will note that moving “trillions” of dollars into Bitcoin would require not only policy shifts but also market structure capable of absorbing sustained sovereign demand without disorderly volatility. Liquidity depth has improved with US spot ETF adoption and growing derivatives markets, yet Bitcoin’s free float, custody frameworks, and cross-border payment rails still face periodic stress.
Morehead, however, situates the thesis in a long arc rather than a short-term trade. “I don’t think it’s gonna happen overnight,” he said, emphasizing a horizon of “a decade or two” and a phased path in which US-aligned adopters pave the way for politically non-aligned states that prize censorship resistance and sanction insulation.
For China and Russia specifically, the impetus would be as much strategic as financial. China’s willingness to chip away at Treasuries aligns with its broader push to diversify reserves into gold and other assets, while Russia’s post-2014 and 2022 sanctions experience has already driven a dramatic reconfiguration of its reserve composition.
Bitcoin’s listless tape in the face of roaring macro risk is less a contradiction than a timing problem, argues this week’s edition of The Weekly Insight (Week 160, Sept. 20, 2025). Writing under the banner “Why’s BTC Lagging?”, contributor @CryptoinsightUK sets a decisively constructive medium-term tone—“I want to start this week by saying I am bullish, and I will continue to be bullish until I believe we are close to a top”—while acknowledging that the market feels late-cycle and emotionally frayed. “With that said, I do think we are closer to a top than a low here,” he adds, but the author still believes “we are approaching the most euphoric stage of this bull cycle.”
Why Is Bitcoin Lagging?
The piece pins much of today’s malaise on sentiment reflexivity. Crypto-Twitter’s grinding negativity is described as a view-generating feedback loop that makes the market feel heavier than it is. “That lag can feel frustrating,” the author writes, noting that the Fear & Greed Index has not displayed the clustered “extreme greed” readings that characterized the 2021 double-top.
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Aside from a burst of exuberance around late-2024/early-2025—“which coincided with XRP’s rally from around 50 cents to $2.70, eventually topping out at about $3.30 to $3.40”—the index has hovered in the mid-range, far from the blow-off conditions that typically mark cycle peaks. The implication is straightforward: despite the noise, the market has yet to show the classic euphoria clusters that precede tops.
Macro correlations, often invoked to explain Bitcoin’s leadership or underperformance, are used here to argue for lag rather than breakdown. On M2 money supply, the author reiterates a well-tracked three-month linkage: “Bitcoin and the M2 money supply have correlated closely so far, but in the last two to three months M2 has absolutely ripped higher.” From here, readers can “either argue that the correlation has broken down, or that Bitcoin is simply lagging and has yet to catch up.”
Bitcoin vs. M2 | Source: Substack
A similar read extends to gold. Directional leadership has alternated between the two assets, but with bullion pressing higher, a catch-up in BTC would “imply a move towards at least $135,000, compared to the current level of around $115,000.” Equities tell the same story in another register: the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P, and Russell 2000 are at or near fresh all-time highs while Bitcoin has “mostly chopped sideways,” again “looking as though it may be lagging behind.”
Market microstructure adds a decisive layer. The letter emphasizes the interaction between visible liquidity pockets and consolidation dynamics. “Every single time there has been a significant liquidity build up, Bitcoin has eventually run through it.” As price has stepped higher, resting liquidity has thickened—“red indicates the deepest liquidity, orange the next, and green the lightest”—and breakouts have been most forceful once those deep pockets were taken.
The example given is the “run from $70k to $100k,” where “heavy consolidation was followed by an explosive breakout.” By that logic, the current map “is pointing to a move toward $140k or higher,” which also dovetails with the gold-parity argument. The author’s metaphor is telling: “I often explain price action like stored energy. The longer it consolidates and charges, the bigger the eventual release.”
What Role Do Altcoins Play?
The most forceful claim in the issue is not about Bitcoin at all but about altcoins. Both Total2 (crypto ex-BTC) and Total3 (crypto ex-BTC and ETH) are said to have “closed a daily candle into price discovery.” Total2 “closed a weekly all time high and is now extremely close to closing a second consecutive weekly high,” while Total3 sits “right on the edge of breaking into new all-time highs.”
Structurally, the report frames Total2 as completing a Wyckoff accumulation and cup-and-handle, and Total3 as carving an ascending triangle poised for continuation. The combination—alts pressing price discovery while Bitcoin “is preparing to push to new highs”—is the setup the author associates with “mania or euphoria.” It is also the basis for a clear positioning disclosure: “it is exactly why I am fully positioned in altcoins here.”
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That rotation view is bolstered by a call on Bitcoin dominance. The author reiterates a long-held target: “I think we are heading down to at least the 35.5 percent level, and potentially even into the low 20s.” The historical analogs are unambiguous: from the 2017 highs, dominance “dropped by 62 percent,” and from the 2021 highs it “dropped by 46 percent,” each time accompanied by an acceleration in the monthly decline.
Bitcoin dominance | Source: Substack
If a similar acceleration coincides with BTC “ripping to new all time highs,” the result would be “a face melting altcoin rally that most people cannot even imagine right now.” The letter links this purely market-internal setup with external catalysts, citing “major legislative shifts in the largest financial economy in the world” and “the potential influx of trillions of dollars through stablecoins and the Clarity Act, which could be passed as soon as November.”
Where Is Bitcoin Price Heading Next?
The issue closes with a complementary technical brief by @thecryptomann1 that brings the near-term risk map into focus. For BTC spot, “decision time… is fast approaching,” with the zone between $111,000 and $115,000 flagged as “huge.” Lose it, and “the liquidity around the $105K range feels inevitable.” Exchange-side order-book heatmaps show “a chunk of liquidity sitting here across all exchanges,” suggesting elevated volatility if tested. The analyst doesn’t force a directional call—“I’m unsure which way the market swings”—and labels aggressive speculation “dangerous” in the current chop.
Bitcoin price analysis | Source: Substack
A second lens comes via USDT dominance (USDT.D), which the analyst inverts to track risk appetite. The metric has been “stuck in [a] range for the past 15 months or so,” but structurally “looks like a chart that’s on its way to revisit its highs (which, in reality, are the lows).” The stated target remains 3.76%. The logic is deliberately simple—range structure, a hold of the 0.5 retracement, persistence in trend, and defense of a key “blue box” support—each pointing “to strength,” i.e., room for risk to keep advancing before stablecoin dominance rises again. That underpins a tactical approach: “The way I’m playing it is swinging long until USDT.D hits 3.76%, then de-risking. That’s not financial advice, just the way I’m approaching it.”
The short-term “max pain” path is sketched with characteristic market irony. One plausible sequence is “$BTC pushing up to $120,000, everyone panicking and going long, fueling the liquidity below us, and then sweeping the lows.” The analyst cautions that a straight drop to the “low $100,000 range” feels “too obvious,” but concedes that both upside and downside liquidity are attractors in a compressed-volatility environment. The mood music for traders is summed, wryly, in a single line: “it’s getting squeaky bum time.”
The total illiquid Bitcoin has reached a new high, providing a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto. This refers to the BTC supply that is unlikely to hit the open, given the long-term holding of the investors who own these coins.
Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply Hits New High
Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a new high of 14.3 million BTC, marking over 72% of the flagship’s circulating supply. This supply is held by long-term holders (LTHs) who haven’t moved their coins in over seven years, highlighting a strong conviction in the flagship crypto.
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A large part of Bitcoin’s supply being in the hands of long-term holders is typically bullish, as it continuously reduces the amount of selling pressure on the coin. It could also lead to a potential supply shock, whereby demand outpaces supply.
Asset manager Fidelity stated in a research report that this new demand for BTC, coupled with a fixed supply and decreasing issuance schedule, was what likely sparked the rally to a new all-time high (ATH) above $124,000. Fidelity further predicted that this upward trend for the Bitcoin price could continue in the years ahead.
Meanwhile, Fidelity highlighted two distinct cohorts that satisfy the threshold of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply. The first is the BTC that was last moved seven or more years ago, while the second is public companies that hold at least 1,000 BTC. Michael Saylor’s Strategy leads the latter as his company currently holds 638,985 BTC, which accounts for over 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Strategy hasn’t sold any coin since it began accumulating in 2020.
Fidelity predicts that the combined group will hold over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025 or over 28% of the crypto’s total supply of 21 million. The asset manager noted that BTC’s illiquid supply has only decreased quarter-over-quarter once in its history.
BTC’s Scarcity May Become Its “Focal Point”
Fidelity predicts that over time, Bitcoin’s scarcity may become the focal point as more entities buy and hold BTC long term. They noted that the illiquid supply could rise drastically if nation-state adoption increases and the regulatory environment continues to evolve. Countries like the U.S. are already looking to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which could create a massive supply shock.
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On the other hand, Fidelity noted that there is the possibility of large amounts of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply being transferred. This could happen as long-term holders and public companies move to realize gains, possibly due to a significant price appreciation. The asset manager earlier mentioned that early signs of potential capitulation may already be emerging as 80,000 ancient BTC were sold in July 2025.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $115,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
BTC trading at $115,963 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
