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Tag: Unemployment

  • How the government shutdown disrupts critical economic data

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    The government shutdown that began Wednesday will deprive policymakers and investors of economic data vital to their decision-making at a time of unusual uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy.The absence will be felt almost immediately, as the government’s monthly jobs report scheduled for release Friday will likely be delayed. A weekly report on the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits — a proxy for layoffs that is typically published on Thursdays — will also be postponed.If the shutdown is short-lived, it won’t be very disruptive. But if the release of economic data is delayed for several weeks or longer, it could pose challenges, particularly for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is grappling with where to set a key interest rate at a time of conflicting signals, with inflation running above its 2% target and hiring nearly ground to a halt, driving the unemployment rate higher in August.The Fed typically cuts this rate when unemployment rises, but raises it — or at least leaves it unchanged — when inflation is rising too quickly. It’s possible the Fed will have little new federal economic data to analyze by its next meeting on Oct. 28-29, when it is widely expected to reduce its rate again.“The job market had been a source of real strength in the economy but has been slowing down considerably the past few months,” said Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the left-leaning Washington Center for Equitable Growth. “It would be very good to know if that slowdown was continuing, accelerating, or reversing.”The Fed cut its rate by a quarter-point earlier this month and signaled it was likely to do so twice more this year. Fed officials said they would keep a close eye on how inflation and unemployment evolve, but that depends on the data being available.A key inflation report is scheduled for Oct. 15 and the government’s monthly retail sales report is slated for release the next day.“We’re in a meeting-by-meeting situation, and we’re going to be looking at the data,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference earlier this month.The economic picture has recently gotten cloudier. Despite slower hiring, there are signs that overall economic growth may be picking up. Consumers have stepped up their shopping and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates the economy likely expanded at a healthy clip in the July-September quarter, after a large gain in the April-June period.A key question for the Fed is whether that growth can revive the job market, which this Friday’s report might have helped illustrate. Economists had forecast another month of weak hiring, with just 50,000 new positions added, according to a survey by FactSet. The unemployment rate was projected to stay at a still-low 4.3%.On Wall Street, investors obsess over the monthly jobs reports, typically issued the first Friday of every month. It’s a crucial indicator of the economy’s health and provides insights into how the Fed might adjust interest rates, which affects the cost of borrowing and influences how investors allocate their money.So far, investors don’t seem fazed by the shutdown. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose slightly Wednesday to an all-time high.Many businesses also rely on government data to gauge how the economy is faring. The Commerce Department’s monthly report on retail sales, for example, is a comprehensive look at the health of U.S. consumers and can influence whether companies make plans to expand or shrink their operations and workforces.For the time being, the Fed, economists, and investors will likely focus more on private data.On Wednesday, the payroll provider ADP issued its monthly employment data, which showed that businesses cut 32,000 jobs in September — a signal the economy is slowing. Still, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said her firm’s report “was not intended to be a replacement” for government statistics.The ADP data does not capture what’s happening at government agencies, for example — an area of the economy that could be significantly affected by a lengthy shutdown.“Using a portfolio of private sector and government data gives you a better chance of capturing a very complicated economy in a complex world,” she said.The Fed will remain open no matter how long the shutdown lasts, because it funds itself from earnings on the government bonds and other securities it owns. It will continue to provide its monthly snapshots of industrial production, which includes mining, manufacturing, and utility output. The next industrial production report will be released Oct. 17.

    NEW YORK —

    The government shutdown that began Wednesday will deprive policymakers and investors of economic data vital to their decision-making at a time of unusual uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy.

    The absence will be felt almost immediately, as the government’s monthly jobs report scheduled for release Friday will likely be delayed. A weekly report on the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits — a proxy for layoffs that is typically published on Thursdays — will also be postponed.

    If the shutdown is short-lived, it won’t be very disruptive. But if the release of economic data is delayed for several weeks or longer, it could pose challenges, particularly for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is grappling with where to set a key interest rate at a time of conflicting signals, with inflation running above its 2% target and hiring nearly ground to a halt, driving the unemployment rate higher in August.

    The Fed typically cuts this rate when unemployment rises, but raises it — or at least leaves it unchanged — when inflation is rising too quickly. It’s possible the Fed will have little new federal economic data to analyze by its next meeting on Oct. 28-29, when it is widely expected to reduce its rate again.

    “The job market had been a source of real strength in the economy but has been slowing down considerably the past few months,” said Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the left-leaning Washington Center for Equitable Growth. “It would be very good to know if that slowdown was continuing, accelerating, or reversing.”

    The Fed cut its rate by a quarter-point earlier this month and signaled it was likely to do so twice more this year. Fed officials said they would keep a close eye on how inflation and unemployment evolve, but that depends on the data being available.

    A key inflation report is scheduled for Oct. 15 and the government’s monthly retail sales report is slated for release the next day.

    “We’re in a meeting-by-meeting situation, and we’re going to be looking at the data,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference earlier this month.

    The economic picture has recently gotten cloudier. Despite slower hiring, there are signs that overall economic growth may be picking up. Consumers have stepped up their shopping and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates the economy likely expanded at a healthy clip in the July-September quarter, after a large gain in the April-June period.

    A key question for the Fed is whether that growth can revive the job market, which this Friday’s report might have helped illustrate. Economists had forecast another month of weak hiring, with just 50,000 new positions added, according to a survey by FactSet. The unemployment rate was projected to stay at a still-low 4.3%.

    On Wall Street, investors obsess over the monthly jobs reports, typically issued the first Friday of every month. It’s a crucial indicator of the economy’s health and provides insights into how the Fed might adjust interest rates, which affects the cost of borrowing and influences how investors allocate their money.

    So far, investors don’t seem fazed by the shutdown. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose slightly Wednesday to an all-time high.

    Many businesses also rely on government data to gauge how the economy is faring. The Commerce Department’s monthly report on retail sales, for example, is a comprehensive look at the health of U.S. consumers and can influence whether companies make plans to expand or shrink their operations and workforces.

    For the time being, the Fed, economists, and investors will likely focus more on private data.

    On Wednesday, the payroll provider ADP issued its monthly employment data, which showed that businesses cut 32,000 jobs in September — a signal the economy is slowing. Still, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said her firm’s report “was not intended to be a replacement” for government statistics.

    The ADP data does not capture what’s happening at government agencies, for example — an area of the economy that could be significantly affected by a lengthy shutdown.

    “Using a portfolio of private sector and government data gives you a better chance of capturing a very complicated economy in a complex world,” she said.

    The Fed will remain open no matter how long the shutdown lasts, because it funds itself from earnings on the government bonds and other securities it owns. It will continue to provide its monthly snapshots of industrial production, which includes mining, manufacturing, and utility output. The next industrial production report will be released Oct. 17.

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  • Powell signals Federal Reserve to move slowly on interest rate cuts | Long Island Business News

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    In Brief:
    • Powell warns against cutting rates too aggressively, citing risks
    • Trump appointees Miran and Bowman push for faster, deeper cuts
    • Fed cut its key rate to 4.1% last week, first reduction this year
    • Divisions deepen within Fed as job market softens and inflation lingers

    Chair on Tuesday signaled a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts, in sharp contrast with other Fed officials this week who have called for a more urgent approach.

    In remarks in Providence, Rhode Island, Powell noted that there are risks to both of the Fed’s goals of seeking maximum employment and stable prices. But with the rate rising, he noted, the Fed agreed to cut its key rate last week. Yet he did not signal any further cuts on the horizon.

    If the Fed were to cut rates “too aggressively,” Powell said, “we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later” and raise rates. But if the Fed keeps its rate too high for too long, “the labor market could soften unnecessarily,” he added.

    Powell’s remarks echoed the caution he expressed during a news conference last week, after the Fed announced its first rate cut this year. At that time he said, “it’s challenging to know what to do.”

    The careful approach he outlined is quite different from that of some other members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee, particularly those who were appointed by President Donald Trump, who are pushing for faster cuts. On Monday, said the Fed should quickly reduce its rate to as low as 2% to 2.5%, from its current level of about 4.1%. Miran was appointed by Trump this month and rushed through the Senate, taking his seat just hours before the Fed met last Tuesday. He is also a top adviser in the Trump administration and expects to return to the White House after his term expires in January, though Trump could appoint him to a longer term.

    And earlier Tuesday, Fed governor also said the central bank should cut more quickly. Bowman, who was appointed by Trump in his first term, said inflation appears to be cooling while the job market is stumbling, a combination that would support lower rates.

    When the Fed cuts its key rate, it often over time reduces other borrowing costs for things like mortgages, car loans, and business loans.

    “It is time for the (Fed) to act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labor market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility,” Bowman said in a speech in Asheville, North Carolina. “We are at serious risk of already being behind the curve in addressing deteriorating labor market conditions. Should these conditions continue, I am concerned that we will need to adjust policy at a faster pace and to a larger degree going forward.”

    Yet Powell’s comments showed little sign of such urgency. Other Fed officials have also expressed caution about cutting rates too fast, reflecting deepening divisions on the rate-setting committee.

    On Tuesday, , president of the Federal Reserve’s Chicago branch, said in an interview on CNBC that the Fed should move slowly given that inflation is above its 2% target.

    “With inflation having been over the target for 4 1/2 years in a row, and rising, I think we need to be a little careful with getting overly up-front aggressive,” he said.

    Last week the Fed cut its key rate for the first time this year to about 4.1%, down from about 4.3%, and policymakers signaled they would likely reduce rates twice more. Fed officials said in a statement that their concerns about slower hiring had risen, though they noted that inflation is still above their 2% target.

    In a question and answer session, Powell said that tariffs, so far, have had a fairly limited impact on inflation, though he suggested that could change.

    He said U.S. companies are paying most of the tariffs, which contradicts Trump administration claims that overseas companies are shouldering the payments. But he said that the pass-through of tariff costs to consumers “has been later and less than we expected.”

    He also said the Fed continues to tune out attacks against it and added that the Fed does not consider when making its decisions. Powell and the Fed have been under steady attack from Trump, though Powell did not name him.

    “Whenever we make decisions, we’re never, ever thinking about political things,” Powell said. “Truth is, mostly people who are calling us political, it’s just a cheap shot. … We don’t get into back and forth with external people.”


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    The Associated Press

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  • Gen Z job crisis: Maybe there are just too many college graduates now | Fortune

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    Amid the debate over AI’s role in limiting job opportunities for Gen Z, there is also the fact that for decades many parents have been encouraging their kids to go to college.

    That means the share of the workforce with a bachelor’s degree is larger than it was in prior generations, creating a new dynamic for Gen Zers who have just finished college and are looking to launch their careers.

    In a note on Thursday, Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, examined unemployment among recent college grads and the potential factors contributing to it.

    He pointed out that graduates from the age of 22 to 27 have historically enjoyed a lower jobless rate than the overall workforce. But that started to change around 2015—well before the advent of OpenAI’s chatbot in late 2022 and the rush into generative AI that followed.

    In fact, data compiled by the New York Fed shows that the unemployment rate for recent grads edged above the total rate in December 2014, when it was 5.6% versus 5.5%. The years that followed saw the two rates go back and forth, trading places.

    But during the pandemic, joblessness among recent college grads began consistently exceeding the overall rate. And in early 2022, the separation between the two trend lines started widening.

    By contrast, the jobless rate for all college graduates across every age group has stayed well below the total rate for at least 35 years.

    New York Fed

    According to the latest data, the unemployment rate for recent grads was 4.8% in June, while it was 4.0% for all workers.

    “Why this change? It may be due to the increase of college educated people in the workforce generally these days, so the new entrants are competing for jobs with more experienced college graduates,” Yardeni wrote.

    Citing the Education Data Initiative, he added that the percentage of Americans with a bachelor’s degree or higher is now 37.5%, up from 25.6% in 2000. And between 1993 and 2023, the number college graduates soared 74.9% while those with only a high school diploma increased 14%.

    Meanwhile, a separate New York Fed analysis that breaks down unemployment rates by college major shows that graduates with degrees in computer engineering, computer science, physics, and information systems and management have higher jobless rates than workers overall.

    “This suggests that too many kids opted to go into computer-related fields and faced a tougher time than expected landing a good job,” Yardeni said.

    To be sure, evidence is mounting that AI is shrinking opportunities, especially at the entry level. And Yardeni highlighted a recent survey by Cengage Group that showed AI is among the top reasons that more employers plan to hire the same or fewer entry-level workers than last year.

    But he also cited a 2023 paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research that found that AI actually resulted in corporations having more lower-level employees who are able to use the technology, which allowed them to make decisions without management, creating a flatter organization.

    And don’t forget President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which have stoked some inflation and boosted uncertainty about the economy, making it difficult for companies to plan ahead and grow their headcount, Yardeni added.

    Others on Wall Street are also skeptical about AI’s role in the Gen Z job crisis. UBS chief economist Paul Donovan described the U.S. labor market as peculiar, pointing out that young workers in the euro zone have record low unemployment, their rate in the U.K. has fallen steadily, and their labor participation in Japan is near all-time highs.

    “It seems highly implausible that AI uniquely hurts the employment prospects of younger US workers,” he wrote in a note on Friday.

    But after years of being told that college was a necessity to get a good job, the pendulum may be swinging the other way. Trade jobs have become more popular, especially among Gen Zers who relish the idea of not being stuck in front of a computer and see a future that’s not so vulnerable to AI.

    At the same time, the Gen Z job crisis is colliding with the student debt crisis, making young people more reluctant to borrow massive amounts of money to obtain a degree with questionable value.

    Not surprisingly, Americans have a much dimmer view on college now. According to a Gallup Poll earlier this month, only 35% say going to college is “very important” — a record low — down from 51% in 2019 and 75% in 2010.

    Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.

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    Jason Ma

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  • Why Walmart’s CEO says AI won’t lead to lower headcount | Fortune

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    Walmart’s U.S. operations employ roughly 1.6 million people today. And if Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner’s instincts are right, that number will hold steady in the coming years, despite all the talk of how the growing use of artificial intelligence (A.I.) might decimate jobs across the economy.

    “When we look out two years, three years, five years, where I think we’ll be is we’ll have roughly the same number of people we have today,” Furner told Fortune’s Jason Del Rey at the Brainstorm Tech conference in Park City, Utah on Tuesday. But, he added, Walmart will have a larger business, meaning that employees on payroll at the largest U.S. employer will be on a per capita basis more productive than now.

    Last year, Walmart U.S.’s revenue rose 4.7% to $462.42 billion as it took share from rivals like Target and Kroger. And last month, the retailer said it now expected U.S. sales growth of as much as 4.75% for the full fiscal year underway on the strength of a blistering first quarter.

    Concretely, though the same headcount at a higher sales line that means many jobs will effectively disappear. But, Furner says, many old roles will be replaced by news ones within Walmart. He cited as an example a general manager called Maurice in Brooksville, Florida. This employee spent two decades or so loading trucks, but now, Furner said, he’s leading a team of bot techs and his work including circuit boards, and changing batteries out.

    “We’re extending people’s career and those jobs pay better. The attrition rates are really low,” Furner said at the conference. To entice workers to embrace A.I. and see it as a path to job growth and opportunity, Walmart has announced a certification program with Open AI.

    Another way AI is changing how Walmart store employees go about their day: an agent quickly makes a detailed list of the tasks to be done on a shift, something that used to take someone 30 to 45 minutes a day. “Now, when they come in, they say ‘Here’s who is going to be in the building this evening. Here the
    most important things we can do. We have a suggestion for assignments,’” says Furner.

    There are also agents who advise Walmart’s marketplace sellers and yet others that work with Walmart merchants to provide information on what to stock, what to curate, and where to place it in the store, reducing the time needed to executive those tasks in the pre-AI world.

    More from Brainstorm Tech

    DoorDash CEO Tony Xu says path to autonomous deliveries filled with ‘lots of pain and suffering’ but company is nearing first inning of commercial progress

    Jeffrey Katzenberg says legislation to protect children from online harms is unlikely: ‘It took 80 years’ to pass seatbelt laws

    How playing chess helped NFL star Larry Fitzgerald slow down his thoughts while managing ADHD and level up his investing game

    Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.

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    Phil Wahba

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  • Higher unemployment, fewer jobs in Prince George’s County – WTOP News

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    The unemployment rate is higher and there are more than 23,000 fewer jobs in Prince George’s County, Maryland, right now compared to 2019, before the COVID pandemic. 

    Despite Prince George’s County’s deep ties to the federal government and higher education sectors, local leaders say those same dependencies are now exposing vulnerabilities in the region’s labor market.

    The unemployment rate is higher and there are 23,000 fewer jobs in Prince George’s County, Maryland, right now compared to 2019 before the COVID pandemic.

    “We are heavily reliant on federal government for jobs in our county, and then we’re also heavily reliant on post secondary education,” said Walter Simmons, president and CEO of Employ Prince George’s.

    He spoke to a county council committee on Monday.

    “Post secondary education is heavily reliant on federal government funding,” Simmons said.

    That may have helped during the pandemic, when the government was a source of stability, but that’s not the case anymore.

    “On average, you would see 100 to 250 unemployment claimants per week. We’ve seen them jump up to 300 to 500, but then you also see it go back down,” Simmons told WTOP after the briefing.

    “The scare is, is that unemployment data is based on where the person worked. So Maryland also isn’t getting all of the people that have been laid off in their place of work that’s a D.C. agency, where the agency is in D.C. So while we aren’t seeing it, that doesn’t mean the numbers don’t exist in larger numbers, we just don’t have access to it,” he added.

    Simmons said more regional cooperation and data sharing would offer an even clearer picture of the true situation. But he also expressed confidence that laid off federal workers will be able to bounce back — though he didn’t say it would be seamless.

    “The hardest part that we’ve seen is the realization that most likely, there could be a pay decrease for that exact same job when you transition — when you take that job and move from the federal government to the private sector or the federal government to local government,” Simmons said.

    Simmons said federal workers are skilled, qualified and have the experience.

    “They are going to be easily attractive to private sector employers,” he said. “The big thing that we’re going to work out is are they going to be willing to take that pay scale?”

    Simmons also said the county’s youth unemployment rate — defined as any worker 24 and under — is also significantly higher than the national average. In county council districts 4, 5, 7 and 9, the youth unemployment rate is over 12%. In District 6, it’s 22%.

    There are a myriad of reasons for it, but a lot of it has to do with education. For kids of school age, too many aren’t showing up to class. Those who are out of school might lack required literacy and math skills — in some cases because they aren’t native English speakers.

    He said he believes other social factors also influence that.

    “We have community problems that are systemic. They’ve been around for 50 years, and we’re working to address them,” he said. “This didn’t happen over one day, and it’s not going to be fixed in one day.”

    Simmons also said they need to boost enrollment in career and technical education programs around the county. Nonprofit groups with expertise in that area are also contributing to the work of turning things around.

    “We have not only identified the strategies, identified funding, and now we’re going through implementation,” he said.

    Get breaking news and daily headlines delivered to your email inbox by signing up here.

    © 2025 WTOP. All Rights Reserved. This website is not intended for users located within the European Economic Area.

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    John Domen

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  • Employers add 22,000 jobs in August, falling short of forecasts

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    WASHINGTON — The U.S. job market has gone from healthy to lethargic during President Donald Trump’s first seven months back in the White House, as hiring has collapsed and inflation has started to climb once again as his tariffs take hold.

    What You Need To Know

    • The U.S. job market has gone from healthy to lethargic during President Donald Trump’s first seven months back in the White House

    • Friday’s jobs report showed employers added a mere 22,000 jobs in August, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%

    • Factories and construction firms shed workers

    • The new data exposed the widening gap between the booming economy Trump promised and the more anemic reality of what he’s managed to deliver so far.

    Friday’s jobs report showed employers added a mere 22,000 jobs in August, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%. Factories and construction firms shed workers. Revisions showed the economy lost 13,000 jobs in June, the first monthly losses since December 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The new data exposed the widening gap between the booming economy Trump promised and the more anemic reality of what he’s managed to deliver so far. The White House prides itself on operating at a breakneck speed, but it’s now asking the American people for patience, with Trump saying better job numbers might be a year away.

    “We’re going to win like you’ve never seen,” Trump said Friday. “Wait until these factories start to open up that are being built all over the country, you’re going to see things happen in this country that nobody expects.”

    The plea for patience has done little to comfort Americans, as economic issues that had been a strength for Trump for a decade have evolved into a persistent weakness. Approval of Trump’s economic leadership hit 56% in early 2020 during his first term, but that figure was 38% in July of this year, according to polling by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

    The situation has left Trump searching for others to blame, while Democrats say the problem begins and ends with him.

    Trump maintained Friday that the economy would be adding jobs if Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had slashed benchmark interest rates, even though doing so to the degree that Trump wants could ignite higher inflation. Investors expect a rate cut by the Fed at its next meeting in September, although that’s partially because of weakening job numbers.

    Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Trump’s tariffs and freewheeling policies were breaking the economy and the jobs report proved it.

    “This is a blaring red light warning to the entire country that Donald Trump is squeezing the life out of our economy,” Schumer said.

    By many measures, Trump has dug himself into a hole on the economy as its performance has yet to come anywhere close to his hype.

    — Trump in 2024 suggested that deporting immigrants in the country illegally would protect “Black jobs.” But the Black unemployment rate has climbed to 7.5%, the highest since October 2021, as the Trump administration has engaged in aggressive crackdowns on immigration.

    — At his April tariffs announcement, Trump said, “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country and you see it happening already.” Since April, manufacturers have cut 42,000 jobs and builders have downsized by 8,000.

    — Trump said in his inaugural address that the “liquid gold” of oil would make the nation wealthy as he pivoted the economy to fossil fuels. But the logging and mining sectors — which includes oil and natural gas — have shed 12,000 jobs since January. While gasoline prices are lower, the Energy Information Administration in August estimated that crude oil production, the source of the wealth promised by Trump, would fall next year by an average of 100,000 barrels a day.

    — At 2024 rallies, Trump promised to “end” inflation on “day one” and halve electricity prices within 12 months. Consumer prices have climbed from a 2.3% annual increase in April to 2.7% in July. Electricity costs are up 4.6% so far this year.

    The Trump White House maintains that the economy is on the cusp of breakout growth, with its new import taxes poised to raise hundreds of billions of dollars annually if they can withstand court challenges.

    At a Thursday night dinner with executives and founders from companies including Apple, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI and Meta, Trump said the facilities being built to develop artificial intelligence would deliver “jobs numbers like our country has never seen before” at some point “a year from now.”

    But Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, noted that Trump’s promise that strong job growth is ahead contradicts his unsubstantiated claims that recent jobs data was faked to embarrass him. That accusation prompted him to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month after the massive downward revisions in the July jobs report.

    Strain said it’s rational for the administration to say better times are coming, but doing so seems to undermine Trump’s allegations that the numbers are rigged.

    “The president clearly stated that the data were not trustworthy and that the weakness in the data was the product of anti-Trump manipulation,” Strain said. “And if that’s true, what are we being patient about?”

    The White House maintained that Friday’s jobs report was an outlier in an otherwise good economy.

    Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said the Atlanta Federal Reserve is expecting annualized growth of 3% this quarter, which he said would be more consistent with monthly job gains of 100,000.

    Hassett said inflation is low, income growth is “solid” and new investments in assets such as buildings and equipment will ultimately boost hiring.

    But Daniel Hornung, who was deputy director of the National Economic Council in the Biden White House, said he didn’t see evidence of a coming rebound in the August jobs data.

    “Pretty broad based weakening,” Hornung said. “The decline over three months in goods producing sectors like construction and manufacturing is particularly notable. There were already headwinds there and tariffs are likely exacerbating challenges.”

    Stephen Moore, an economics fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation and supporter of the president, said the labor market is “definitely softening,” even as he echoed Trump’s claims that the jobs numbers are not reliable.

    He said the economy was adjusting to the Trumpian shift of higher tariffs and immigration reductions that could lower the pool of available workers.

    “The problem going forward is a shortage or workers, not a shortage of jobs,” Moore said. “In some ways, that’s a good problem to have.”

    But political consultant and pollster Frank Luntz took the contrarian view that the jobs report won’t ultimately matter for the political fortunes of Trump and his movement because voters care more about inflation and affordability.

    “That’s what the public is watching, that’s what the public cares about,” Luntz said. “Everyone who wants a job has a job, for the most part.”

    From the perspective of elections, Trump still has roughly a year to demonstrate progress on improving affordability, Luntz said. Voters will generally lock in their opinions about the economy by Labor Day before the midterm elections next year.

    In other words, Trump still has time.

    “It’s still up for grabs,” he said. “The deciding point will come Labor Day of 2026.”

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  • A bad jobs report

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    Employers added 22,000 new jobs in August. For those paying attention, this is substantially below what had been forecast.

    The jobs report was released early Friday morning, and it indicated a rising unemployment rate, plus job numbers adjustments for June and July. TLDR: things don’t look great.

    Some silver linings: Though job growth was low, layoffs were also relatively low. That said, people who have been fired or laid off have struggled to get back on their feet: “The number of people with continued unemployment claims has been elevated since April,” reports The New York Times.

    It is very likely now that the Federal Reserve Board will drop interest rates, something they’ve hesitated to do for about the last nine months. But with a struggling labor market, it might be time. (The stock market is reacting fine to all this news; though a bad jobs report isn’t great, an interest rate cut could be good.)

    “Although there’s no evidence of rapidly mounting layoffs, in July the number of unemployed people surpassed the number of available jobs for the first time since the spring of 2021. Job openings have fallen sharply for two months in health care, which has been the main industry driving growth over the past year,” reports The New York Times. “Also in the labor market weakness column: data from the payroll provider ADP, which showed just 54,000 private-sector jobs were added in August. Since the public sector most likely shed jobs last month as the Trump administration continues to fire people, the total number could be lower.”

    One interesting nugget: This month’s report showed 12,000 lost manufacturing jobs, which makes a total of 78,000 lost over the course of this year. If one goal of President Donald Trump’s tariffs was to revitalize domestic manufacturing, it sure doesn’t look like things are going according to plan.

    Scenes from New York: Democratic Mayor Eric Adams, who is seeking reelection in a race against Democratic nominee/frontrunner Zohran Mamdani, hardcore law-and-order Republican Curtis Sliwa, and former Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, has reportedly confided to trusted advisers that he might drop out, having been in talks with the Trump administration recently in Florida.

    It’s also rumored that the administration reached out to Sliwa, in hopes of slimming the race down to just Mamdani vs. Cuomo; Sliwa does not appear interested in taking any Trump offers.

    “I don’t think you can win, unless you have one on one,” said Trump when asked about the mayoral race. “I would like to see two people drop out and have it be one on one. And I think that’s a race.”

    (“Is there any scenario, any, where Curtis Sliwa drops out of this race?” asked radio host Sid Rosenberg of Sliwa yesterday morning. “Yeah, if somebody puts a bullet in the back of my head, and I’m in a casket,” replied Sliwa, who survived a shooting back in ’92.)

    QUICK HITS

    • The Justice Department has opened up a criminal investigation—related to her purported mortgage fraud, as in: declaring two residences to be her primary—into Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board. “The move…was instigated by Ed Martin, a hyperpartisan Trump loyalist with little prosecutorial experience,” reports The New York Times. “He has said that it is legitimate for federal officials to publicly air criminal investigations into people targeted by the president, even if an investigation does not result in a conviction or even an indictment….Martin, who has been given few staff but broad latitude to team up with U.S. attorney’s offices around the country, flouted the department’s procedural norms last month by suggesting to the Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, that Ms. Cook step aside.” “At this time, I encourage you to remove Ms. Cook from your board,” Martin wrote in a letter to Powell last month. “Do it today before it is too late! After all, no American thinks it is appropriate that she serve during this time with a cloud hanging over her.”
    • Inside the tech CEO dinner at the White House (for which Elon Musk was notably absent).
    • Sometime today, the president will sign an executive order renaming the Department of Defense to the Department of War. At least it’s honest!
    • “Since the election, Bluesky has lost ground,” writes Nate Silver at his Substack. “More precise data based on the number of unique ‘likers’, ‘posters’ and ‘followers’ at Bluesky tracks a similar curve, with an initial peak around the election and a secondary peak after Trump’s inauguration but persistent erosion since then. The number of unique posters at Bluesky peaked at just under 1.5 million on Nov. 18, 2024 but has since fallen to an average of about 660,000 on weekdays and 600,000 on weekends: in other words, a drop of more than half.” Silver details what a bubble Bluesky is, disproportionately used by people in D.C. and folks in “crunchy white states like Vermont and Oregon” (lol). But “demographics alone only go so far in explaining Blueskyism, however. It’s not a political movement so much as a tribal affiliation, a niche set of attitudes and style of discursive norms that almost seem designed in a lab to be as unappealing as possible to anyone outside the clique.”
    • Yep:

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    Liz Wolfe

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  • The state of labor in Minnesota in 5 charts

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    Unionized physicians, physician assistants and nurse practitioners picketed outside Allina’s Coon Rapids clinic on June 3, 2025. (Photo by Max Nesterak/Minnesota Reformer)

    Minnesota is a good place to be a worker, with higher wages and union density than the nation along with lower unemployment. But there are growing challenges. Housing costs are rapidly increasing, child care is among the most expensive in the country, and an aging workforce threatens economic growth while straining taxpayers tasked with caring for those who need it.

    President Trump’s agenda of massive federal cuts, high tariffs and immigration crackdowns has frozen the job market in uncertainty, and Minnesota’s jobless rate reached the highest level in nearly four years this summer.

    Here are five charts on the state of labor in Minnesota.

    Wages are higher in Minnesota than most other states

    Minnesotans earn the highest average hourly wages in the Midwest — and the 8th highest in the country — while enjoying a relatively low cost of living compared to the coasts.

    The average Minnesota worker earned $37.58 per hour in 2024, compared to $32.66 nationally, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For most, that’s more than enough to meet the basic cost of living — housing, food, transportation and health care — with money left over to go out to dinner, save for retirement and take a vacation.

    According to the state Department of Employment and Economic Development’s cost of living calculator, a single person with no kids needs to earn around $18 an hour while a family of four with one working parent needs to earn around $33 per hour to afford the basics.

    Wages have generally matched or outpaced inflation over the past several decades. Although high inflation coming out of the pandemic eroded many workers’ buying power, wage growth has since caught up. Low-wage workers — particularly those in nursing homes and food service — benefited the most from a tight labor market, which has pushed wages up much more quickly than inflation in recent years.

    Even so, rising costs for housing and child care are stretching family budgets and souring many workers’ view of the economy. The median income is enough to afford the median-priced home in the state, but rents and home prices have been rising faster than incomes.

    Child care is also more expensive in Minnesota than most other states, according to research by the Economic Policy Institute. On average, infant care in Minnesota costs $22,000 per year — about 20% of the median household income.

    Minnesotans are working and finding jobs

    Minnesotans are working — or looking for work — at some of the highest rates in the country with a labor force participation rate of 68.2% compared to 62% nationally. Unemployment — the share of people looking for work — is also lower than the national average.

    The share of adults working rose steadily through the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s, as more and more women entered the workforce. Women in Minnesota work at some of the highest rates in the country, though the price of child care and persistent gender pay gap means women are more likely than men to stay at home to care for children or other family members.

    The labor force participation rate has not returned to pre-pandemic levels of around 70%, in large part because many older workers retired in the pandemic and never reentered the workforce.

    The continual aging of the population foreshadows difficulties in the labor market ahead. Employers will have to raise wages, but they will also need to lean into automation and hope the state can attract more out-of-state migrants or immigrants.

    Union membership is high compared to the rest of the country

    Minnesota consistently has among the highest rates of union representation in the country owing to its pro-labor tradition and relatively favorable organizing laws. The higher unionization rate contributes to the state’s relatively high median wages.

    High union membership doesn’t just benefit union workers. Research shows that as union membership increases in a given industry, so do nonunion wages because of increased pressure on employers to raise pay.

    Still, the story of unionization in Minnesota and the nation as a whole has been one of steady decline over the past half century. More than 20% of Minnesota workers were represented by a union in 1990 compared to less than 15% today.

    Union leaders blame the decline on federal laws hostile to organizing and a lack of meaningful enforcement against unfair labor practices. While unions have been enjoying a surge in popularity since the pandemic, enthusiasm alone has yet to change the long-term decline of union membership.

    Income inequality persists

    By some measures, income inequality got worse in the pandemic years, with the top 10% of earners taking home 37% of Minnesota’s total income in 2023, up from 35% in 2020. Meanwhile, the bottom 10% of earners take home a meager 1.9% of the state’s income, a figure that has stayed more or less the same for the past decade.

    Minnesota’s Gini coefficient — a metric of inequality that ranges from 0, representing exact equality, to 1, representing one person making all the money — has also gotten slightly higher in recent years but remains the same or lower than our neighboring states.

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis has yet to publish state-level data on income distribution for 2024 and 2025, so we’ll have to wait to see whether high wage growth for lower-income workers will help address inequality in Minnesota.

    Education, health services and construction jobs are growing

    Despite a slowdown in jobs recently — with over four thousand jobs lost in July — Minnesota has seen a 1.1% increase in jobs over the past year, a little more than the nationwide 0.9%.

    The highest job growth is in education, health services and construction. Elementary and secondary school employment growth is especially strong, with an 8% increase in jobs since last year. Meanwhile, the financial and information sectors have seen a loss in jobs, with the state’s telecommunications sector losing nearly 5% of its jobs, in line with national trends of layoffs at telecom companies from organizational restructuring and possibly AI automation.

    Government job growth has also slowed down from last year, especially at the federal level, as Trump slimmed the federal workforce through mass buyoffs and layoffs. Minnesota’s federal workforce saw a sharp downturn in the month of April — a loss of 500 jobs — coinciding with the timing of a second wave of buyout offers from the administration.

    “We may now be seeing results of mass federal layoffs and funding interruptions, erratic tariffs and shrinking immigration,” said Matt Varilek, the Commissioner of Minnesota’s Department of Employment and Economic Development, in a recent press release.

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  • Gen Z are eyeing up ‘secure’ healthcare jobs to AI-proof their careers, but be warned: chiropractors, doctors and paramedics are the unhappiest workers

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    Tech leaders have consistently warned that AI is already as good as entry-level workers and that it could halve white-collar jobs by 2030. In fact, a “first-of-its-kind” Stanford University study has warned that the new technology is already having “significant and disproportionate impact” on Gen Z.

    So it’s no wonder they’re eyeing up jobs in healthcare which offer low unemployment rates, the potential to earn over $200,000, and is unlikely to be replaced with robotic doctors and nurses anytime soon. 

    But there’s one thing they should know before filling out medical school applications: pursuing job security doesn’t necessarily guarantee job satisfaction.

    That’s because recent research from shift work platform Deputy, which surveyed 1.28 million users, ranks doctors, paramedics, and even chiropractors as the unhappiest workers.

    In fact, doctors’ offices and medical clinics recorded the highest levels of dissatisfaction, with nearly 38% of respondents saying they’re unhappy in their jobs. Chiropractors and staff in critical and emergency services weren’t far behind.  And if you include animal health roles, 4 out of the 5 worst jobs for happiness in the UK right now are in healthcare.

    Despite healthcare’s reputation for meaningful work, these roles are often more likely than most to leave workers burned out and ground down by long hours and high stakes.

    “Staffing shortages, emotional strain, unpredictable rosters, and an ageing population are cited as key contributors to declining morale,” the report highlighted.

    Top 10 unhappiest industry sectors, per the research

    1. Doctors Office/Medical Clinic – 37.84%
    2. Animal Health – 17.95%
    3. Chiropractors – 12.93%
    4. Critical & Emergency Services – 12.05%
    5. Call Centres – 12.00%
    6. Catering – 8.60%
    7. Delivery and Postal Services – 6.97%
    8. Care Facilities – 6.22%
    9. Cleaning Services – 5.80%
    10. Private Services (Chefs, Gardeners etc) – 5.62%

    Gen Z may be happier in hospitality jobs

    What’s perhaps most surprising is that jobs many recent grads might have once looked down on—like fast food or waitressing roles—are emerging as a safer bet for a more satisfying career.

    Hospitality fared well in Deputy’s study, making up half of the 10 happiest job sectors, despite the sector’s reputation for high stress, unsociable hours, and low pay. 

    Hospitality jobs dominated the happiness rankings. Sit-down restaurant staff (89.7%), fast food and cashier restaurant workers (82.9%), food pop-up teams (82.5%), and café or coffee shop employees (82%) all reported some of the highest job satisfaction scores of any sector.

    Florists, childcare workers and cleaners also reported notably high levels of job contentment.

    What makes these roles so satisfying? The report suggests it’s less about pay or prestige, and more about the day-to-day experience: “These roles may benefit from clearer routines, manageable workloads, and stronger team camaraderie, highlighting the emotional value of operational structure and positive workplace culture.”

    Although probably not at the top of most graduates’ dream career list, separate data also show that wage growth for bartenders and baristas is outpacing that of desk workers.

    Top 10 happiest industry sectors, per the research

    1. Tobacco, E-cigarette and Vape Stores – 93.4%
    2. Sit Down Restaurants – 89.7%
    3. Fast Food/Cashier Restaurants – 82.9%
    4. Florists – 82.9%
    5. Food Pop-Ups – 82.5%
    6. Cafes/Coffee Shops – 82%
    7. Dentists – 81.8%
    8. Childcare/Community Centres – 78.4%
    9. Catering – 75.3%
    10. Cleaning Services – 64.3%
    Introducing the 2025 Fortune Global 500, the definitive ranking of the biggest companies in the world. Explore this year’s list.

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    Orianna Rosa Royle

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  • No, these new studies don’t show an AI jobs apocalypse is coming

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    The artificial intelligence (AI) age is upon us and, as is the case with every disruptive technology, it is accompanied by doomsayers who fear it will irreparably harm society. “For Some Recent Graduates, the A.I. Job Apocalypse May Already Be Here,” The New York Times recently warned in a recent headline. “There Is Now Clearer Evidence AI Is Wrecking Young Americans’ Job Prospects,” read another headline in The Wall Street Journal. While these pessimistic headlines evoke a Philip K. Dick sci-fi dystopia, emerging data paint a brighter, more nuanced picture.

    The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis published a report on Tuesday that explores how AI adoption is associated with unemployment, which is up to 4.2 percent according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ dismal July jobs report.

    The authors use two metrics to offer a tentative, noncausal answer: theoretical AI exposure, which measures whether large language models (LLMs) “can reduce task completion time by at least 50%” in various occupations; and actual AI adoption, based on responses to the Real-Time Population Survey created by Adam Blandin, professor of economics at Vanderbilt University, and Alexander Bick, an economic policy advisor at the St. Louis Federal Reserve. According to the study, computational and mathematical occupations had the most exposure (roughly 80 percent), the highest rate of AI adoption (45 percent), and the largest increase in their unemployment rate between 2022 and 2025 (by 1.2 percentage points). Personal services, meanwhile, had the least exposure (about 15 percent), the lowest rate of AI adoption (less than 10 percent), and the smallest increase in its unemployment rate between 2022 and 2025 (by less than 0.1 percentage points).

    This elevated unemployment rate in high-AI adoption occupations should be taken with a grain of salt. Will Rinehart, senior technology fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, tells Reason that both measurements used by the Fed have their own problems. Rinehart explains the actual AI adoption measure is suspect because, “in social media research, self-reports of Internet use ‘are only moderately correlated with log file data.’” To know the actual “actual AI adoption” rate, “we need log file usage data [from] Anthropic and OpenAI,” says Rinehart.

    Conveniently, the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI also published a working paper on Tuesday that uses Anthropic’s generative AI usage data. The researchers found that, “among software developers aged 22 to 25…the head count was nearly 20% lower this July versus its late 2022 peak,” reports the Journal. The researchers also find that, “for the highest two exposure quintiles employment for 22-25 year olds declined by 6% between late 2022 and July 2025.” These findings lend credence to the viral New York Times article recounting the nightmarish job application struggles of four recent computer science graduates.

    But 2022 was a unique year, and using it as a baseline could be skewing the data. As Matthew Mittelsteadt, a technology policy research fellow at the Cato Institute, tells Reason, “Everyone was online during the pandemic [and] tech had record profits.” Mittelstead says the sector may be in the midst of a post-pandemic readjustment that is happening at the same time as AI adoption. The Journal acknowledges these factors could partially account for the reduced employment of 22-year-old to 25-year-old software developers, but argues these “possibilities can’t explain away the AI effect on other types of jobs,” such as customer service representatives.

    AI adoption is undoubtedly causally responsible for some workers losing their jobs. Every productive technology replaces the labor of some workers—but it usually does so by complementing the labor of others. The Stanford researchers found precisely this: “While we find employment declines for young workers in occupations where AI primarily automates work, we find employment growth in occupations in which AI use is most augmentative.”

    Both of these studies only explore one side of the equation: employment. But AI’s effect on productivity must also be considered to understand its actual economic impact. Rinehart says AI’s productivity effects are real and measurable and cites four papers published between 2023 and 2025 to substantiate the claim that “productivity gains are typically largest for lower-skilled workers and smaller for highly experienced workers.” On the other hand, Mittelsteadt points to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology “study that found ‘95% of organizations found zero return despite enterprise investment of $30 billion to $40 billion into GenAI.’”

    AI is an instance of creative destruction, just as the automobile was for the horse-drawn carriage. Only time will tell if AI is more creative than destructive. But if it’s like the technologies that preceded it, there’s reason to believe that its permanent expansion of the total economic pie will more than offset the unfortunate unemployment effects borne by particular workers in the short run.

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    Jack Nicastro

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  • Class of 2025 Enters the Toughest Job Market in Years – Big Interview Experts Say It’s Not All Doom

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    NEW YORK, July 17, 2025 (Newswire.com)
    –
    As cap-and-gown celebrations wind down, a new challenge looms for the class of 2025: a job market that’s tougher than any seen in recent memory. According to the Federal Reserve, unemployment for recent graduates has outpaced the national average for the first time since 1980, with entry-level hiring freezes, AI automation, and economic uncertainty reshaping the traditional path from college to career.

    “Many of today’s entry-level roles are disappearing before new grads even have a chance to compete,” said Pamela Skillings, co-founder and chief coach at Big Interview, a job training platform used by hundreds of colleges and universities nationwide. “But that doesn’t mean opportunity is gone-it just means students need to be better prepared, more adaptable, and more strategic in how they present themselves.”

    Recent research confirms this, with a 2024 McKinsey report estimating 44% of global job tasks could be automated, with white-collar entry-level roles among the most affected. A LinkedIn survey of executives found that 63% believe AI will replace many entry-level tasks, altering job expectations for new hires.

    Skillings, who has coached thousands of job seekers through economic downturns, sees a shift in what employers are hiring for: adaptability, clarity of communication, and the ability to think critically in fast-changing environments.

    “AI may have changed the market, but it hasn’t changed what makes people hirable,” she said. “Hiring managers still want to hear your story, understand your strengths, and see how you solve problems. The graduates who learn to communicate that clearly will stand out – even in a flooded market.”

    According to Skillings, the students who fare best aren’t always the ones with perfect résumés or the most experience; they’re the ones who know how to position themselves, speak clearly about their strengths, and demonstrate problem-solving skills in real time.

    She also stresses that AI isn’t just changing who gets hired, it’s also changing how hiring happens. “AI is already baked into how companies operate, how they review resumes, and how they conduct interviews,” she said. “That means new grads need to learn how to collaborate with AI, not fear it.”

    Skillings encourages graduates to take small, strategic steps-even in the face of an overwhelming market. “Pick one thing you can do this week to move forward,” she said. “Sign up for a free AI course. Rework your résumé with a clear story. Explore a career path AI can’t replace. This isn’t just about getting a job-it’s about finding your place in a workforce that’s evolving fast.”

    About Pamela Skillings:
    Pamela Skillings is a nationally recognized career coach and co-founder of Big Interview. A former professor at NYU and former corporate VP, she has been featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, and CNN. She is also the author of Escape from Corporate America and Job Interviewing for Dummies (2024 edition).

    About Big Interview:
    Big Interview is a premier AI-driven job interview training platform with partners including more than 700 higher education institutions, government workforce agencies and businesses, as well as individual clients.

    We prepare individuals for all aspects of the interview process with a vast library of video lessons and practice interviews, available in both English and Spanish, tailored to 1100+ job roles. Big Interview also provides real-time AI-powered feedback and personalized coaching to help users refine their skills. On average, Big Interview users secure employment in 4.4 weeks, compared to the national average of 23 weeks.

    Source: Big Interview

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  • Amidst the Rise of Virtual Interviews, Big Interview Shares Why Online Interview Training Tools Are Essential

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    NEW YORK, April 23, 2025 (Newswire.com)
    –
    As the hiring process undergoes a digital transformation, virtual interviews are becoming the new default. But for many job seekers, this shift has introduced new barriers – unfamiliar technology, limited feedback, and subtle communication challenges that didn’t exist in traditional in-person settings. Enter Big Interview, the online platform helping people navigate this new landscape with confidence.

    Founded by renowned career coach Pamela Skillings, Big Interview combines a structured curriculum with AI-powered tools that help job seekers practice, improve, and perform in today’s interviews-whether they’re remote, in-person, or a hybrid of both. The platform has been proven to accelerate job placement: users land jobs up to 5x faster than the national average.

    “We’ve seen the hiring process fundamentally shift in the last five years – especially with the rise of remote roles and AI-powered screening tools,” said Pamela Skillings, Co-founder and Chief Coach at Big Interview. “Too many people are qualified but not prepared to tell their story effectively. That’s the gap we fill – giving job seekers a fair shot in a system that’s constantly changing.”

    Big Interview serves a broad set of audiences across education and workforce systems:

    • Higher Education: Over 700 colleges and universities rely on Big Interview to prepare students for job and internship interviews, offering scalable tools for career centers and academic programs alike.

    • Government & Workforce Agencies: State workforce systems in 10+ states including Texas, Maryland, Ohio, and Pennsylvania use Big Interview to help job seekers get back to work faster-reducing unemployment durations and saving millions in benefit payouts. In Maryland, the platform contributed to a 4-5 week reduction in unemployment duration.

    • K-12: Career and technical education (CTE) programs use the platform to teach foundational communication and interview skills to students exploring the world of work.

    • Returning Citizens: Big Interview offers practical, judgment-free interview prep for formerly incarcerated individuals, supporting successful reentry into the workforce with tools tailored to second-chance hiring environments.

    • Bilingual Access: Big Interview is fully available in both English and Spanish, ensuring broader accessibility for diverse job seekers, including English Language Learners and multilingual communities served by schools, workforce boards, and nonprofit partners.

    The platform’s AI-driven tools – including ResumeAI and VideoAI – deliver personalized feedback on resumes and interview performance, helping users refine their approach and improve with every attempt. These features empower job seekers to compete in a fast-evolving market that increasingly favors polish, clarity, and digital fluency.

    As virtual interviews become the norm and hiring expectations rise, Big Interview is helping individuals – and the institutions that support them – bridge the gap between potential and performance.

    To learn more, visit Big Interview online.

    Source: Big Interview

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  • How will Trump’s plans to deport undocumented migrants impact US economy?

    How will Trump’s plans to deport undocumented migrants impact US economy?

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    Gloria Solis moved to the United States from Mexico in 1998. To put food on the table for her four children, she works in the agricultural sector in Washington state. She’s one of the estimated 31 million foreign-born workers in the US — documented or otherwise — who are helping to drive the US economy.

    She’s worried that if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump gets elected, the life she has built for her and her family could be in jeopardy.

    Trump has made immigration, a hot-button issue this election, one of the pillars of his campaign. The role of immigrants in the startup economy is well known – 55 percent of US startups valued at $1bn or more were founded by immigrants, and some of the most famous names in Silicon Valley are those of foreign-born entrepreneurs, including Tesla chief Elon Musk and Google co-founder Sergey Brin.

    But what is often overlooked is the importance of immigrants, including undocumented ones, in other sections of the US society and economy.

    In his comments, Trump has drawn a stark line defining who would be welcome in the US should he be elected the next US president. In June, he promised “to staple a Green Card to anyone who graduates from any college, even 2-yr community colleges” — a claim that the campaign later walked back on.

    He has also publicly stated that he wishes to deport the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the US. His plan, championed by loyalists like Stephen Miller, who served as a top adviser during his first term, is inspired by a policy from the 1950s put in place by then-President Dwight Eisenhower who, during his time in office, deported more than a million undocumented migrants, primarily from Mexico.

    Much like human rights groups, economists too have slammed Trump’s plan.

    A report earlier this year from Moody’s said that Trump’s immigration policy would cause “significant tightening in the already-tight job market” and would greatly affect sectors of the economy such as healthcare, retail, agriculture and construction that depend on many of these workers.

    Workforce shortage

    Trump has argued that deportations would increase job opportunities for native-born workers, but a look at any of these sectors suggests that is not how things would necessarily pan out.

    Between farms, food-processing facilities and supermarkets, for instance, an estimated 1.7 million undocumented migrants work in the food supply chain, according to the Center For American Progress.

    According to a study from the University of Arkansas, 73 percent of agricultural workers are immigrants and 48 percent of them are unauthorised. In California, nine out of 10 agricultural workers are foreign-born like Solis.

    Miller, who before his stint in Trump’s administration was an aide to lawmakers, now runs American First Legal, a legal organisation which focuses on conservative causes. He told the New York Times in an interview last November that “Mass deportation will be a labour-market disruption celebrated by American workers, who will now be offered higher wages with better benefits to fill these jobs.”

    But “farmers have said again and again that they can’t find a local workforce”, Teresa Romero, president of the United Farm Workers, told Al Jazeera.

    In 2019, more than half of Californian farmers said they had trouble finding workers. It’s largely expected that if Trump gets his way, those shortages will only get worse.

    A study published in the Journal of Labor Economics found that for every one million deported migrant workers, there would be a loss of 88,000 jobs for US natives. That’s because businesses are less likely to expand labour opportunities if they lose their workforce and more likely to use the savings to invest in technology that can automate their work.

    “Estimates of the impact of that policy are vast and have a negative effect on the US economy … including [on] American natives,” Michael Clemens, professor of Economics at George Mason University, told Al Jazeera.

    Trump’s deportation plan “not only is going to impact the lives of farm workers, but is going to impact all of us. We depend on their work to make sure that we have food on our table,” Romero added.

    One study suggests that a total ban on immigrant labour would raise the cost of milk by 90 percent.

    The role of such workers is not restricted to the US food supply chain. Undocumented migrants account for more than 346,000 workers in the healthcare sector, 236,300 of whom are filling roles like personal health and home aides and nursing assistants.

    The US already has a healthcare worker shortage. For instance, according to Mercer Health, there are roughly 12,000 open nursing assistant jobs in Texas alone and more than 14,000 in California.

     

    Similarly, the construction sector overwhelmingly relies on foreign-born labourers. In immigrant-heavy states like Texas and California, migrant workers make up 40 percent of the sector’s workforce. And a National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) report found as much as a 65 percent construction labour shortage in some jobs like finished carpentry. Mass deportation would exacerbate that shortage.

    Trump has also blamed migrants for the current housing shortage, arguing they are taking up portions of the limited supply that would otherwise go to documented immigrants or native-born Americans.

    In a speech for the Economic Club of New York, Trump said he would ban mortgages for undocumented migrants, but as Al Jazeera has previously reported, those mortgages are a tiny fraction of overall mortgages. On the contrary, his proposal of across-the-board tariffs will raise construction costs on imports of lumber and steel, among many other items, further shooting up home prices.

    Trump’s policy proposals impact other sectors, too, including the transportation sector, where undocumented workers make up 6 percent of the workforce, and leisure and hospitality, where they comprise 8.4 percent.

    The Trump campaign did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request to clarify how the former president would address the exacerbated worker shortage if he is re-elected in November.

    Household incomes tumble

    A key part of Trump’s plan is to get rid of a programme known as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). It is a law which was introduced during the administration of former US President Barack Obama and which shields from deportation those who came to the US without documentation as children.

    Trump’s attempts to end DACA as president were blocked by the Supreme Court, but he has vowed to try again if re-elected. That would impact the more than half a million people living in the US under DACA protections and their families.

    “The biggest impact would be the potential separation of my family. If Trump does what he says he’s going to do, which is try to clear out all the undocumented people, obviously that would leave my kids who are US citizens without their parents,” Solis told Al Jazeera.

    Apart from impacting Solis and families like hers, this would drastically affect the average household income amongst immigrant communities.

    A report from the Center For Migration Studies published during the 2017-2021 Trump administration shows that removing undocumented migrants from mixed-status households would cause a 47 percent reduction in average household income.

    An estimated 33 percent of unauthorised immigrants have at least one child who is a US citizen, according to the Migration Policy Institute. The Solis household fits this mould. Gloria has four children – all of them native-born US citizens.

    Revenue void

    It’s not just migrants who would be affected, but also the tax revenue they bring in.

    Undocumented immigrants paid $96.7bn in taxes – almost $60bn of which went to the federal government – in 2022. Migrants paid $25.7bn towards US Social Security programmes that they are unable to use themselves. Trump’s plan would undermine these workers and limit tax revenues that help fuel the US economy.

    “We would not only be missing out on the hard work that they do if they were to potentially be deported, but we’re also missing out on that additional revenue,” Marco Guzman, senior policy analyst at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, told Al Jazeera.

    According to a report from the non-partisan Peterson Institute, deporting 7.5 million migrants would result in a 6.2 percent reduction in the US gross domestic product (GDP). And these estimates are still far short of the impact of Trump’s ideal plan, which would deport 11 million migrants.

    Alternatively, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office forecasts that based on current trends, new immigrants would bring in $788bn in tax revenue over the next 10 years.

    In March, Goldman Sachs noted that increased migration would cause a slight increase in economic output – three-tenths of a percentage point.

    Neither Miller nor the Trump campaign responded to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

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  • Report: Rising costs threaten state’s economic growth

    Report: Rising costs threaten state’s economic growth

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    BOSTON — Rising labor costs and a stagnant workforce are threatening Massachusetts’ status as a leader in innovation and economic growth, according to a new report from an independent tax watchdog group.

    The Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation new Competitiveness Index, released earlier in the week, found that while the state benefits from the “symbiotic relationship” between a highly educated workforce and key economic sectors such as health care and higher education, it also faces significant challenges related to cost and demographic shifts.

    Those include the state’s high cost of energy, housing, and childcare, as well as a declining labor force, aging population, and increasing rates of outmigration, the report’s authors said.

    “Massachusetts has long been a leader in innovation and economic productivity, but our ability to maintain this status is under threat,” said Doug Howgate, the foundation’s president.

    The foundation ranked the state’s competitiveness standing on a broad set of 26 key metrics, ranging from economic health, population and labor force trends to business, employment, and investment factors as well as resident’s quality of life.

    Among the key findings: Massachusetts’ talent and innovation are its biggest strength, with the state ranked first nationally in terms of adult residents with a bachelor’s degree, and first and second in performance among public school students in reading and math, respectively.

    But the state’s high cost of living and cost of doing business is a “major competitive disadvantage,” according to the report, with energy, unemployment insurance and taxes near the bottom of national rankings, the report authors said.

    Child care and housing costs, as well as commute times, also make Massachusetts a challenging place to raise a family, according to the report.

    The authors said the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated preexisting demographic challenges and pointed out the state has seen a 2.4% decrease in its labor force since 2018, a trend they said is a “serious risk” to the state’s long-term economic growth.

    The state also ranks 45th in the nation for domestic outmigration, with many residents relocating to lower-cost states such as New Hampshire, the report noted.

    Gov. Maura Healey and legislative leaders have focused on boosting the state’s competitiveness in response to previous reports showing an exodus of people from the state in recent years. Healey argues that a lack of housing, among other factors, is impacting the state’s ability to attract and maintain businesses and families.

    But an economic development bill that would set aside hundreds of millions of dollars in bonding and tax credits and reauthorize the state’s life sciences initiative to boost competitiveness has been stuck in a six-member committee since the July 31 end of formal legislative sessions.

    The bill, a key plank of Healey’s first term agenda, was approved by the House and Senate but differences between the two bills still need to be worked out.

    The MTA’s new index, created with the Massachusetts Competitive Partnership and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst’s Donahue Institute, will be updated yearly to give policymakers, business leaders, and the public “a clear, data-driven understanding of how Massachusetts measures up against other states.”

    “If Massachusetts is going to be serious about improving our competitiveness and enhancing what our state offers to residents and employers, we need to start with shared understanding of where we stand and where we want to go,” Howgate said.

    Jay Ash, president and CEO of the Massachusetts Competitive Partnership, said the MTA report “provides a roadmap for the policies and strategies that can help us reverse these trends and build a stronger, more resilient economy.”

    “Massachusetts is a great state, but to maintain our competitive edge, we need to address the fundamental issues driving up costs and driving out talent,” he said.

    Christian M. Wade covers the Massachusetts Statehouse for North of Boston Media Group’s newspapers and websites. Email him at cwade@cnhinews.com

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    By Christian M. Wade | Statehouse Reporter

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  • U.S. Fed Chair: “The time has come” to begin reducing interest rates – MoneySense

    U.S. Fed Chair: “The time has come” to begin reducing interest rates – MoneySense

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    Powell did not say when rate cuts would begin or how large they might be, but the Fed is widely expected to announce a modest quarter-point cut in its benchmark rate when it meets in mid-September.

    “The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said in his keynote speech at the Fed’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

    His reference to multiple rate cuts was the only hint that a series of reductions is likely, as economists have forecast. Powell emphasized that inflation, after the worst price spike in four decades inflicted pain on millions of households, appears largely under control:

    “My confidence has grown,” he said, “that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%.”

    What’s the U.S. inflation rate?

    According to the Fed’s preferred measure, inflation fell to 2.5% last month, far below its peak of 7.1% two years ago and only slightly above the central bank’s 2% target level.

    The Fed chair also said that rate cuts should maintain the economy’s growth and sustain hiring, which slowed last month. Continued growth could boost Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign, even as most Americans say they are dissatisfied with the Biden-Harris administration’s economic record, largely because average prices remain far above where they were before the pandemic.

    “We will do everything we can,” Powell said, “to support a strong labour market as we make further progress toward price stability.”

    By cutting rates, he said, “there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labour market.”

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    The Associated Press

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  • Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says

    Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says

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    The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

    As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of this year.

    The revision to the total payrolls level of -0.5% is the largest since 2009. The numbers are routinely revised each month, but the BLS does a broader revision each year when it gets the results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

    Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported figures. The new numbers, if they hold up when the BLS issues its final revisions in February, imply monthly job gains of 174,000 during the period, as opposed to the initial indication of 242,000.

    Even with the revisions, job creation during the period stood at more than 2 million, but the report could be seen as an indication that the labor market is not as strong as the previous BLS reporting had made it out to be. That in turn could provide further impetus for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.

    “The labor market appears weaker than originally reported,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting.”

    At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less. Other areas revised lower included leisure and hospitality (-150,000), manufacturing (-115,000), and trade, transportation and utilities (-104,000).

    Within the trade category, retail trade numbers were cut by 129,000.

    A few sectors saw upward revisions, including private education and health services (87,000), transportation and warehousing (56,400), and other services (21,000).

    Government jobs were little changed after the revisions, picking up just 1,000.

    Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023. There have been concerns, though, that the labor market is starting to weaken, with the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% representing a 0.8 percentage point gain from the 12-month low and triggering a historically accurate measure known as the “Sahm Rule” that indicates an economy in recession.

    However, much of the gain in the unemployment rate has been attributed to an increase in people returning to the workforce rather than a pronounced surge in layoffs.

    “This preliminary estimate doesn’t change the fact that the jobs recovery has been and remains historically strong, delivering solid job and wage gains, strong consumer spending, and record small business creation,” White House economist Jared Bernstein said in a statement.

    To be sure, economists at Goldman Sachs said later Wednesday that they think the BLS may have overstated the revisions by as much as half a million. The firm said undocumented immigrants who now are not in the unemployment system but were listed initially as employed amounted for some of the discrepancy, along with a general tendency for the initial revision to be overstated.

    Federal Reserve officials nonetheless are watching the jobs situation closely and are expected to approve their first interest rate cut in four years when they next meet in September. Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a much-anticipated policy speech Friday at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that could lay the groundwork for easier monetary policy ahead.

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  • Workers face uncertainty after closure of Tyson plant that employed 25% of Iowa town

    Workers face uncertainty after closure of Tyson plant that employed 25% of Iowa town

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    Joe Swanson, a resident of Perry, Iowa, is no longer working in the town he loves and where his kids go to school. That’s because the city’s largest employer, a Tyson Foods pork plant, recently shut down.

    Swanson says when the company announced in March they were shuttering the plant, he couldn’t risk unemployment because of his health issues. So when he found a new job with health benefits, he says he took it and left Tyson around six weeks before it officially closed on June 28.

    “None of us picked this, and I just want everybody to be OK. Because I know how hard this is going to be for a lot of people,” said Swanson, who worked at the factory for nearly 14 years.

    Many of the 1,300 hundred other laid-off employees are now grappling with the same situation — living, but no longer working, in Perry. A new path forward may be somewhere else.

    “You have the power to make sure that you find the right opportunity that’s going to benefit you and your family,” Swanson said.

    But the reality in Perry is that the right opportunities left a long time ago. The meat processing plant is not modern enough for the company, and upgrades would simply cost too much. 

    “Maybe we were hoping for a miracle at first, where we can just turn off the lights on June 28th and turn them back on with a new user. And that’s simply not the case,” said Rachel Wacker, executive director of the Greater Dallas County Development Alliance.

    The Tyson plant employed about 25% of Perry’s working-age residents before it shuttered, according to city and county officials. Accounting for workers’ families and businesses directly related to the plant, about 60% of the town is affected by the closure.

    Two hundred team members relocated to Tyson facilities in Iowa and outside the state, Tyson Foods told CBS News.

    The plight of the so-called “one-factory” town is not new.

    In the 1970s, Youngstown, Ohio, was a thriving steel city of 140,000 people. The mills closed, and now the population is less than half of what it used to be, according to U.S. Census data. Ohio was hit hard again in 2008, when a shipping hub in Wilmington closed, leaving 42% of the working age population without a job.

    In Farmerville, Louisiana, a chicken plant that employed more than a third of the town shut down in 2009, the CBS News data team found.

    Back in Perry, people like Nacho Calderon are learning from history. After being laid off at the Tyson plant, he hopes to become a garbage or concrete truck driver.

    Driving garbage trucks in Perry requires a commercial drivers license. The local community college is giving trucking classes for free to give workers a shot at staying in town.

    Calderon says he’s sad he lost his job, and also for his coworkers who may not have cars or much money to help them get back on their feet.

    As Calderon is still looking for work, Swanson has this advice: “Take control.”

    He found a job handling maintenance at an apartment complex out of town.

    “[It’s] what I feel like is a great opportunity, and I want that for everyone,” Swanson said.

    It’s a hopeful wish for friends who lost their jobs, but against all odds, refuse to quit on their city.

    Dave Malkoff


    headshot-600-dave-malkoff.jpg

    Dave Malkoff is a national correspondent with the CBS Local News Innovation Lab, where his work appears across all CBS News and Station platforms.

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  • 8/2: CBS News Weekender

    8/2: CBS News Weekender

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    8/2: CBS News Weekender – CBS News


    Watch CBS News



    Lana Zak reports on the market’s response to the July jobs report, the latest team USA Olympic medal count and meet a real-life “Emily in Paris.”

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  • Portland’s Unemployment Rate Essentially Unchanged In June – KXL

    Portland’s Unemployment Rate Essentially Unchanged In June – KXL

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    PORTLAND, Ore. – The unemployment rate in the Portland metro area was 4.0 percent in June.

    That’s essentially unchanged from 4.1 percent in May.

    But, it’s higher than it was a year ago, when it was 3.4 percent.

    The area held steady with over 1.2 million non-farm jobs last month.

    More about:

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    Grant McHill

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  • More Americans apply for jobless benefits as layoffs

    More Americans apply for jobless benefits as layoffs

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    U.S. filings for unemployment benefits rose again last week and appear to be settling consistently at a slightly higher though still healthy level.

    What You Need To Know

    • U.S. filings for unemployment benefits rose again last week and appear to be settling consistently at a slightly higher though still healthy level

    • The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims for the week ending July 13 rose by 20,000 to 243,000 from 223,000 the previous week

    • The total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits rose after declining last week for the first time in 10 weeks

    • About 1.87 million Americans were collecting jobless benefits for the week of July 6, around 20,000 more than the previous week

    More Americans apply for jobless benefits as layoffs settle at higher levels in recent weeks

    Jobless claims for the week ending July 13 rose by 20,000 to 243,000 from 223,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

    The total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits rose after declining last week for the first time in 10 weeks. About 1.87 million Americans were collecting jobless benefits for the week of July 6, around 20,000 more than the previous week. That’s the most since November of 2021.

    Weekly unemployment claims are widely considered as representative of layoffs.

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    Associated Press

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