Republican presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy took aim at social-media companies during the second GOP presidential debate, saying Wednesday night that he would aim to ban anyone age 16 or under from using those companies’ platforms.
“If you’re 16 years old or under, you should not be using an addictive social-media product — period,” said Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who ranks fourth in GOP primary polls, according a RealClearPolitics average.
He said this move would help with improving mental health and stopping the fentanyl epidemic. Earlier, Ramaswamy had talked about a mom and dad in Iowa whose son died after the teen bought Percocet laced with fentanyl through Snapchat.
That type of ban would hit companies such as Meta Platforms META, -0.41%,
the parent of Instagram and Facebook; Snap SNAP, +1.80%,
the parent of Snapchat; X, formerly known as Twitter; and ByteDance, the Chinese parent of TikTok.
Ramaswamy has started using TikTok in his White House campaign, and another GOP presidential candidate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, attacked him over that at another point in the debate.
“TikTok is one of the most dangerous social-media apps we could have,” she said. “Honestly, every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber.”
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is taking steps toward removing all medical debt information from Americans’ credit reports, a move meant to help the millions of Americans whose credit scores drop after bills for expenses like unexpected hospital visits go unpaid.
While the information surrounding most unpaid medical debts has already been removed from credit reports by the three major reporting agencies — Equifax, Experian and TransUnion — the CFPB on Thursday announced plans for a rule- making process that would…
It was past midnight when Alessandra Millican and a friend entered the Bellagio hotel room that was costing them hundreds of dollars a night, but unexpected noises made them stop cold.
“We started hearing grunts,” she said. “It’s somebody waking up — we were halfway through the room and we realized there’s somebody sleeping in here.”
The numbers: Construction of new U.S. homes fell 11.3% in August — falling short of Wall Street expectations — as builders scaled back new projects to focus on completions.
The pace of construction reversed course and fell as mortgage rates stayed over 7%, dampening home-buying demand. The last time construction of new homes was at this level was in June 2020.
So-called housing starts fell to a 1.28 million annual pace from 1.45 million in August, the government said Tuesday. That’s how many houses would be built over an entire year if construction took place at the same rate every month as it did in August.
Economists on Wall Street were expecting a drop in starts to 1.43 million. All numbers are seasonally adjusted.
Housing starts peaked at 1.8 million in April 2022.
The number of homes started in July was revised downwards, to an increase of 2% to 1.45 million, from an initial reading of a 3.9% gain.
New homes have dominated the housing market, but persistently high rates are beginning to spook home builders. In anticipation of waning demand, builders said they’ve started to ramp up price cuts to boost buyer demand in September, according to a survey by the National Association of Home Builders.
Building permits, a sign of future construction, rose 6.9% to a 1.54 million rate. That’s the highest level since October 2022.
Key details: The construction pace of single-family homes fell by 4.3% in August, and apartment-building construction fell by 26.3%.
But home builders ramped up single-family home construction in the South, where starts rose by 8.1% in August.
Housing starts fell the most in the West, by 28.9%.
Permits for single-family homes rose 2% in August, while permits for buildings with at least five units or more surged by 14.8%.
Around 1.69 million homes were under construction as of August.
Big picture: Builders are increasingly concerned about how 7% rates will impact demand, and they’re pulling back on starting new developments as a result.
Builder confidence in September fell to the lowest level in five months, according to the NAHB. Home builders are increasingly offering incentives, including cutting prices. The share of builders cutting prices to boost sales rose to the highest level in nine months, the NAHB noted, going up to 32% in September from 25% the previous month.
Nonetheless, given the long-term need for housing and a decade of underbuilding, builders may not see a sustained drop in demand.
What are they saying? Despite starts falling sharply in August, the uptick in building permits “suggests housing starts could pick up modestly again and today’s data could reflect some volatility,” CIBC Economics said in a note. “Nonetheless, the cooling in building activity is a good sign for the Fed which is expecting to limit housing market activity in an effort to contain inflation.”
Rates have peaked, but “will remain elevated for the rest of the year,” Capital Economics wrote in a note. And this means that with “a slowing economy, we expect this will lead single-family starts to flatten-off at around 900,000 annualised until mid-2024, after which an economic recovery will help spur buyer demand and supporting renewed homebuilder confidence,” they added.
Regional banks that went big lending on office properties also face a ticking time bomb of maturing debt that they helped create, particularly if the Federal Reserve holds its policy rate near the current 22-year high well into next year.
“The area of greatest concerns for banks is office space,” says Tom Collins, senior partner focused on regional banks and credit unions at consulting firm firm West Monroe. Should rates stay high, “borrowers are going to face a tough decision of whether they refinance or default,” he said.
The fight to bring more staff back to half-empty office buildings comes as an estimated $1 trillion wall of commercial real-estate loans is set to mature through 2024. While tenants haven’t shied away from signing up to pay top rents at trophy buildings, the same can’t be said for the rows of lower-rung properties lining financial districts in big cities.
The Fed embarks on a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with expectations running high for rates to stay steady, giving more time to study the impact of earlier rate increases.
The central bank’s rate hikes have further complicated matters for landlords, and fresh debt for office buildings no longer looks cheap nor abundant. Regional banks also have been piling back on lending after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed in March and as deposits fled for yield elsewhere.
Loan volumes from Wall Street similarly have been anemic. This year it has produced slightly more than $10 billion in “conduit,” or multi-borrower, commercial mortgage-backed securities deals through the end of August, the least since 2008, according to Goldman Sachs. Coupons, a proxy for mortgage rates, have climbed above 7%, the highest since the early 2000s.
“I don’t think this is a wash out here,” Collins said of the threat of more regional bank failures, but he does anticipate pain for lenders heavily exposed to lower quality class B and C office buildings in urban areas.
Banks can help mitigate the wall of debt coming due by stepping up the pace of loan modifications to help borrowers keep properties, but Collins said he also anticipates lenders will need to increase loan sales, write downs and mergers or acquisitions.
“There is no doubt there will be private equity and other investors that will be interested in buying some of these loans, taking them off the balance sheets of banks,” Collins said.
“The obvious question there is at what discount?” he said, adding, “I think investors will wait until things get more dire to try to get a better deal.”
Another offset to banks’ office exposure has been the relatively stable performance of hotels, industrial and other property types. But Collins said that if rates stay high and the economy falters, those sectors are likely to face challenges as well.
The 10-year Treasury yield, BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
a benchmark lending rate for the commercial real estate industry, was near 4.32% on Monday, hovering around a 16-year high ahead of the Fed meeting, while the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury rate BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
was near 5.06%. Stocks SPX
Office distress intensified in August, with the special servicing rate of loans in bond deals hitting 7.72%, compared with a 6.67% rate for all property types, according to Trepp, which tracks the commercial mortgage-backed securities market. A year ago, the rate of problem office loans was 3.18%.
“If I was an investor, I would be patient around this, because values are only going to come down, I would imagine,” Collins said.
Right now, nearly 13,000 UAW workers have walked off the job at Ford Motor Co. F, -0.08%,
General Motors Co. GM, +0.86%
and Jeep and Chrysler parent Stellantis STLA, +2.18%,
still considered the influential Big Three for car makers.
If the union gets a win from on its 32-hour work week demand, that could be a big deal for momentum behind the broader four-day work week movement, experts say.
Four days of work is “still in the early-adoption phase,” said Alex Soojung-Kim Pang, director at Four Day Week Global, where he advises companies considering how to implement a curtailed traditional work week.
A UAW win on the 32-hour demand “would help move the four-day week from being something you do if you have a bold leader and you want to stand out in your industry, to a mainstream aspiration for every worker and business owner,” said Soojung-Kim Pang.
“A lot more people can look at the four-day week and say if they are doing this in an auto factory, I absolutely can do it here in my small plant, or in my business,” he added.
Even if the 32-hour work week doesn’t make it to the final deal, it’s a “game changer” that the demand is there at all, he said. The demand could plant the idea in labor talks far beyond the UAW-company standoff.
A UAW win on the 32-hour week would cause a “massive reverberation,” said Cathy Creighton, of Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations.
The demand’s presence is a sign of the COVID-19 pandemic’s lasting effects, said Creighton. While five days of in-person office attendance seems like a thing of the past, “we’ve had fundamental changes in how workers and employers view work life and work-life balance.”
Many factory workers may not be able to pull off remote work but they can press for a shortened week on the physically demanding work, she noted. Historically, the UAW was one of the first unions to deliver health benefits, vacation and pensions for its members, she noted.
“I think the labor movement has been playing it safe for a long time, and now they are not,” Creighton said. The UAW’s 32-hour work week demand is a prime example, she said. “The five-day work week is so ingrained in our psyche that to think of something different is like an earthquake.”
Some research indicates people are ready for a shake-up. Nearly six in 10 people who work five days say they would prefer four 10-hour days, according to an August poll in an ongoing look at worker attitudes run by academic researchers.
“We all know that living in a plant seven days a week, 12 hours a day, isn’t a living at all. We need real work-life balance. Auto workers deserve a life,” UAW president Shawn Fain told members in a video update days before the targeted strike.
Roughly 12,700 UAW members so far have walked off the job at a Ford Motor plant in Michigan, a GM plant in Missouri and an Ohio plant for Stellantis NV, the maker of brands like Dodge, Chrysler, Jeep and Ram Trucks.
Of course, there’s no guarantee how far the demand gets. The companies have counter proposals for the array of union asks, as a chart shows from researchers at Evercore ISI. They don’t yet have counters on the 32-hour work week.
Switching to a 32-hour week with a 40-hour pay rate would be a sharp labor cost on top of the wage increases the UAW is already seeking, a Stellantis spokeswoman said. It would require hiring at least 25% more workers to stick with current manufacturing schedules, she said.
“We are extremely disappointed by the UAW leadership’s refusal to engage in a responsible manner to reach a fair agreement in the best interest of our employees, their families and our customers,” the company said in a statement.
In a statement, GM said it was “disappointed by the UAW leadership’s actions, despite the unprecedented economic package GM put on the table, including historic wage increases and manufacturing commitments.”
Ford did not respond to a request for comment.
“It’s a big game of chess that Shawn Fain is playing. We’ll see how it turns out,” Creighton said.
“Even if they don’t get the four-day week this time, there are going to be other moves in this game in the future,” from the UAW and beyond, Soojung-Kim Pang said.
“Even if you have to give on the four-day week now, that doesn’t mean you give on the four-day week as an ideal or a goal.”
The median annual household income in the U.S. was $74,755 in 2022, a 0.8% decline from the previous year after adjusting for inflation, according to the latest data from the Census Bureau.
The decline in income is “disappointing,” said Sharon Parrott, president of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities,…
The Federal Reserve’s inflation fight has been particularly brutal for anyone not already a U.S. homeowner before interest rates and mortgage rates rose to 15-year highs.
With mortgage rates around 7.2% to kick off the post–Labor Day period, the difference between the rates on a new 30-year home loan and on all outstanding U.S. mortgage debt (see chart) has not been so wide since the 1980s.
It’s the 1980s again in the U.S. housing market.
Glenmede, FactSet
“Generally, climbing interest rates curb demand and cause housing prices to fall,” Glenmede’s investment strategy team wrote, in a Tuesday client note, but not this time.
Instead, U.S. homes remain in critically low supply after more than a decade of underbuilding, and with most homeowners who already refinanced at low pre-pandemic rates being “reluctant to leave their homes,” wrote Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research, and his Glenmede team.
“Until the supply gap is filled by new construction, home prices and building activity are unlikely to decline as meaningfully as they normally would given the headwind from rising rates,” the Glenmede team said.
The Glenmede team, however, does expect more pressure on consumers in the coming months, particularly as student-loan payments resume in October and if the Fed keeps interest rates high for a while, as increasingly expected. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y,
which underpins the U.S. economy, was back on the climb at 4.26% Tuesday.
Meanwhile, shares of home-vacation rental platform Airbnb Inc. ABNB, +7.23%
rose 7.2% on Tuesday, after the Labor Day weekend, and 66.4% higher on the year so far, according to FactSet.
Shares of Invitation Homes Inc. INVH, -0.91%,
which grew out of the last decade’s home-loan foreclosure crisis to become a single-family-rental giant, were up 14.3% on the year, according to FactSet.
Dallas Tanner, CEO of Invitation Homes, said he expected “the rising costs and the burden of homeownership” to continue to benefit his company, in a July earnings call. The company recently bought a portfolio of about 1,900 homes and has been snapping up newly constructed homes. Companies can borrow on Wall Street at much lower rates than individuals.
Stocks closed lower Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA
off 0.5%, and the S&P 500 index SPX
0.4% lower and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP
down 0.1%, according to FactSet.
Ever since my daughters entered high school, I was preparing myself for the dreaded “empty nest.” While it was years away, I worried about how I would adjust to the reality of kids in college and no more time-sucking chores to do.
Even though I have been a working mother in a two-income household, family always was a priority, and I was devoted to caring for our daughters. So, I did wonder how I would adjust to the hole left in my daily calendar when our girls went off to school, graduated or moved on and launched their own lives.
But here’s the dirty little secret that no one talks about until it happens. After decades of marriage and three years of COVID quarantine, I’ve got a different problem: I can’t get my husband to leave the house.
It’s a topic of conversation among my girlfriends, all of us looking for some solitude but instead faced with our husbands, always in their sweatpants, happily hanging out around the house.
Of course, COVID was the trial run, the big disrupter, for being at home. My husband, pre-COVID, was a human tourism brochure, constantly digging up great activities we could go to. Most of them were things we did together but since we weren’t holed up together at home, it didn’t feel stifling.
The COVID pivot
But once COVID hit, all those activities came to a screeching halt and my husband proclaimed that with all the books, CDs and vinyl from his youth along with tchotchkes he’s collected over decades, he could be more than happy to stay home forever and read, listen to music and peruse his collections.
Maybe I have done such a good job of creating a comfortable nest that my husband just doesn’t feel the need to leave. Perhaps COVID caused him to re-evaluate just how important it was to get some fresh — and possibly contaminated — air.
Maybe, like so many men his age, he doesn’t have enough friends — Jane Fonda has expounded on that of late, explaining to anyone who will listen how vital her women friends are to her well-being, while all men want to do is sit next to each other and watch sports or cars or women from afar. And she’s right, women have friends that are soul mates, advisers, co-conspirators. Most men haven’t thrown each other that emotional lifeline.
The timing is unfortunate. I’m working less than full time at this stage of life. Now that I’ve gotten accustomed to my children being gone and look forward to some time to myself, my husband has had to rethink his motivation to get out of the house every day.
Still working, but from home
The fact that he continues to work, but now fully from home, hasn’t helped. After stressful workdays I understand that he also needs some downtime.
Many men are at the stage of life where a decision about whether to retire is also on the table. But here is a word of warning to husbands considering that as their next chapter: Check your Rolodex for friends you want to spend time with because we can’t be your constant companions.
Maybe it’s a “Men Are from Mars, Women Are from Venus” kind of thing. But after watching all the episodes of “The Sopranos” for the first time recently, I feel that if only there was a Bada Bing club — without the Bada Bing. Maybe someone should start a Daddy Daycare to literally take care of Daddy.
Guys of a certain age need a place to meet and schmooze, a clubhouse where someone can make them a plate and just create an inviting space to shoot the breeze. I have no idea what they would talk about, though.
Women know that building deep friendships has paid huge dividends as we all have gotten older. Long-married spouses need more time with their friends — a respite from too much togetherness at home and an opportunity to discuss something beyond what’s for dinner.
I did gently mention a few weeks ago to my husband that he rarely leaves the house these days and maybe he could take an outing one afternoon a week that didn’t include me.
“What do you mean I never leave the house?” he said, incredulous. “I went to Ralph’s just the other day.” And proud hunter-gatherer that he is, we’ve got the boxes and cans of unheard-of sale items we will probably never use to prove it.
I have found women are often more adventurous, even as we age. We are less willing to just hang back and “relax.” For an increasing number of women, gray divorce has become a term that sociologists are noticing, as more older women have chosen to approach their senior years alone.
For others, independent travel is an answer. There are so many blogs, Instagram and Facebook META, +0.17%
accounts by women traveling alone that we are practically our own demographic. In my independent solo travels, I have encountered many women who got tired of asking their reluctant husbands to come along and have happily set out on their own.
Once you arrive in a strange city, it is totally liberating to explore when you don’t have to check in with anyone else about what to do when, how to get wherever, or what time or what to eat each day. And it’s easier to engage in conversations with strangers when you are by yourself. I find I’m more open to those encounters when I’m on my own.
I heard a story recently from a photographer who was photographing Dolly Parton. The soon-to-be-married photographer asked the performer her secret to her long marriage. Parton’s answer: “Travel a lot. Separately.”
While it’s important to get away, for me, who never described myself as a homebody, it’s essential to have some alone time that doesn’t involve leaving the house. As we age, the one thing that is certain is that the future is unpredictable.
There may come a time when leaving the house is not a safe or viable option. While we are healthy and active enough, let’s give each other the space to enjoy one of life’s guilty pleasures — moments of solitude at home where you have a chance to think, regroup, dream and sometimes to just do absolutely nothing.
The added bonus will be that the time we do spend together will be all the more interesting, with new adventures to hear about.
Iris Schneider has been a journalist and photographer since the 1970s, starting in New York City while teaching at PS 97 on the Lower East Side. She became a staff photographer at the Los Angeles Times in 1980. Her work can be seen on her website or on Instagram (@schneidereye).
More than a year ago, the Federal Trade Commission sued Intuit Inc., the maker of TurboTax, for allegedly tricking people into thinking they could file their income taxes for free with the tax-preparation giant.
Now, an administrative judge inside the agency has ruled against Intuit — and the company said in a Friday afternoon SEC filing that it’s going to keep fighting the case, even if that means incurring “significant costs.”
“We expect to appeal this decision to the FTC Commissioners and, if necessary, then to a federal court of appeals. We intend to continue to defend our position on the merits of this case,” the company said in its 10-K filing.
“There is no monetary penalty, and Intuit expects no significant impact to its business,” Intuit spokesman Rick Heineman said in a statement. The company will appeal “this groundless and seemingly predetermined decision by the FTC to rule in its own favor,” he said.
Intuit already reached a $141 million settlement with state attorneys general about the allegations of deceptive advertising. The company says it has been clear and upfront with customers about costs. It did not admit liability in the settlement.
The FTC could not be immediately reached for comment Friday afternoon.
In March 2022, the regulator sued Intuit in federal court to immediately stop commercials that repeated “free” over and over. Intuit pulled some of the advertising and after filing season ended, a San Francisco federal judge said the FTC bid for emergency halts didn’t need to happen under the circumstances.
FTC lawyers also lodged an internal administrative complaint. “Intuit widely disseminated ads on television, on the radio, and online that gave consumers the impression that they could use TurboTax for free, even though two-thirds of taxpayers don’t qualify for Intuit’s free TurboTax offerings,” they wrote in administrative complaint proceedings.
The ongoing legal fight is happening while the broader fight over of free tax preparation is heating up. The Internal Revenue Service is planning to test its own pilot program in the upcoming filing season where taxpayers can file their taxes directly with the IRS instead of through tax preparation companies or individual preparers.
TurboTax and the tax software industry oppose the proposed IRS direct file system. So do Congressional Republicans.
One sticking point in the looming government shutdown is how much money the IRS should be getting in its budget. The House appropriations bill would forbid the IRS from using any money to build the direct file system.
Intuit Inc. INTU, +1.44%
shares closed 1.4% higher Friday, at $549.60, and the disclosure didn’t seem to be having much effect on the shares in after-hours trading. Shares are up 41% year to date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA
is up 5% and the S&P 500 SPX
is up 17.6%.
The U.S. Labor Day holiday will mark another milestone in the marathon to bring workers back to the office, but it won’t be a quick fix for landlords, according to Thomas LaSalvia, head of commercial real estate economics at Moody’s Analytics.
“A lot of companies are saying that after Labor Day, ‘We expect more out of you,” LaSalvia said, referring to days in the office. Still, office attendance, he argues, likely only stages a fuller comeback if a job or promotion is on the line.
That could prove difficult, with Friday’s U.S. jobs report for August expected to show U.S. unemployment at a scant 3.5%, near the lowest levels since the late 1960s, even if hiring has been slowing. The labor market, so far, appears unfazed by the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate reaching a 22-year high.
It has been a different story for landlords facing a roughly 19% vacancy rate nationally and piles of debt coming due, especially for owners of older Class B and C office buildings with a bleak outlook or properties in cities with wobbling business centers.
As with shopping malls, LaSalvia said it’s largely a problem of oversupply, with many office properties at risk of becoming obsolete as tenants flock to better buildings and locations staging a rebirth. The trend can be traced in leasing data since 2021, with Class A properties in central business districts (blue line) showing a big advantage over less desirable buildings in the heart of cities (orange line).
Return to office isn’t going to save the entire office property market
Moody’s Analytics
“Little by little, we are finding the office isn’t dead,” LaSalvia said, but he also sees more promise in neighborhoods with a new purpose, those catering to hybrid work and communities that bring people together.
Another way to look at the trend is through rents. Manhattan’s Penn Station submarket, with its estimated $13 billion overhaul and neighboring Hudson Yards development, has seen asking rents jump 32% to $74.87 a square foot in the second quarter since the fourth quarter of 2019, according to Moody’s Analytics. That compares with a 2% bump in asking rents in downtown New York City to $61.39 a square foot for the same period.
The push for a return to the office also doesn’t mean a repeat of prepandemic ways. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that part-time remote work in the U.S. has stabilized around 20%-25%, in a late August report, but that’s still up from 2.6% before the 2020 lockdowns.
Furthermore, the persistence of remote work will likely add another 171 million square feet of vacant U.S. office space through 2029, a period that also will see tenants’ long-term leases expire and many companies opting for less space. The additional vacancies would roughly translate to 57% of Los Angeles roughly 300 million square feet of office space sitting empty.
“The fundamental reason why we had offices in the first place have not completely disintegrated,” LaSalvia said. “But for some of those Class B and C offices, the writing was on the wall before the pandemic.”
U.S. stocks were mixed Thursday, but headed for losses in a tough August for stocks, with the S&P 500 index SPX
off about 1.5% for the month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA
2.1% lower and the Nasdaq Composite COMP
down 2% in August, according to FactSet.
A federal appeals court ruled Wednesday that access to the abortion pill mifepristone should be restricted, although the pill will remain widely available for now as the case moves through the appeals process.
The opinion from a three-judge panel of the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals said that mifepristone should remain available but with increased restrictions, effectively barring patients from accessing the pill by mail.
It’s been one year since a law earmarked a massive cash infusion for the Internal Revenue Service, and the tax agency says it’s making a return on the investment.
Now it has to sell that idea as the congressional budget process grinds on.
The numbers: Builder confidence waned in August as the 30-year mortgage rate surged, dampening U.S. home-buying interest.
Despite a persistent shortage of homes on the market for resale, builders have lost confidence in the late summer amid declining customer traffic from higher mortgage rates, as well as challenges in the construction process.
The thing that will make companies lower prices is if consumers stop complaining about paying more for the things they need and want, and actually start refusing to buy them.
As the U.S. corporate earnings-reporting season progresses, with earnings from major retailers Walmart Inc. WMT, +0.59%,
Target Corp. TGT, +0.10%
and Home Depot Inc. HD, +0.52%
on tap next week, investors can get a ground-floor view of how consumer demand may have been hurt, or not, by higher prices, and what the companies plan to do, or not do, about it.
This dynamic of how consumers adjust their spending habits when prices change is referred to by economists as the price elasticity of demand.
“ For companies to cut prices, ‘you have to have the consumer go on strike, and they’re not there yet.’”
— Jamie Cox, Harris Financial Group
Those who trust companies will choose to ratchet down prices on their own, or at least not raise them because the rise in input costs has been slowing, haven’t been listening to what the many companies have told analysts on their post-earnings-report conference calls.
Kraft Heinz Co. KHC, +0.47%
acknowledged after its second-quarter report that its relatively higher prices have hurt demand, but not by enough for the food and condiments company to consider cutting prices.
Colgate-Palmolive Co. CL, +0.81%
said it will continue to raise prices, even as inflation slows and selling volume declines, as the consumer-products company continues to be laser focused on boosting margins and profits.
And while PepsiCo Inc. PEP, +0.16%
was worried that elasticities would increase, given how its lower-income customers were being particularly pressured by inflation, the beverage and snack giant reported strong results as it witnessed “better elasticities” in most of the markets in which it operated.
“Obviously, there is still carryover pricing, and I don’t think we’ll do anything different than our normal cycles on pricing in the balance of the year,” PepsiCo Chief Financial Officer Hugh Johnston told analysts, according to an AlphaSense transcript.
Basically, as MarketWatch has reported, so-called greedflation is alive and well.
Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, said as long as the job market stays strong, as it is now, corporate greed will continue to pay off.
“If something is more expensive, and you have a job, you’ll complain about it, but you won’t substitute it for something cheaper,” Cox said. For companies to cut prices, “you have to have the consumer go on strike, and they’re not there yet,” Cox added.
“ ‘At some point, people are going to say, “All right — enough.” ’ ”
— Paul Nolte, Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management
The reason elasticity is so important in the current environment is that, as long as consumers continue to pay the higher prices companies are charging, inflation will remain stubbornly high, making it, in turn, more likely that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates or, at the very least, not lower them.
But the longer interest rates stay high enough to crimp economic growth, the more likely the stock market will reverse lower as recession fears rise.
“At some point, people are going to say, ‘All right — enough,’ ” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth manager and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. “But we just haven’t seen that yet.”
What is elasticity?
Economists use the term “price elasticity of demand” to refer to the way in which consumers adjust their spending habits when prices change.
“Elasticity tries to measure how much more producers will want to produce if prices rise, and how much more consumers will want to buy if prices fall,” explained Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica.
Elasticity often depends on the type of product a company sells.
For example, consumer-discretionary-goods companies that sell products and services that people want will often experience greater price elasticity than consumer-staples companies that sell things that people need, such as groceries and prescription drugs.
But even for needs, consumers often still have a choice, as less expensive generic, or private-label, alternatives may be available.
Andre Schulten, chief financial officer of consumer-staples maker Procter & Gamble Co. PG, +0.58%,
which recently beat earnings expectations as it continued to raise prices, telling analysts that, while there was “some trading into private label,” the overall market share of private-label products was unchanged for the year.
As Harris Financial’s Cox said, consumers may be complaining about higher prices, but they aren’t yet desperate enough to stop buying.
The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book economic survey stated that business contacts in some districts had observed a “reluctance” to raise prices as consumers appeared to have grown more sensitive to prices, but other districts reported “solid demand” allowed companies to maintain prices and profitability.
That’s likely why companies and analysts have become less concerned about price elasticity. Based on a FactSet analysis, mentions of the word “elasticity” in press releases and conference calls of S&P 500 companies SPX
increased as inflation and interest rates started surging in early 2022 through the end of the year.
Mentions of the word elasticity in earnings press releases and conference-call transcripts of S&P 500 companies.
FactSet
As the chart shows, “elasticity” popped up in more than 55% of earnings releases and conference calls in mid-2022, but with the second-quarter 2023 earnings-reporting season more than half over, mentions had dropped to about 20%.
Perhaps that will pick up, as retailers, especially those catering to lower-income customers — recall the PepsiCo comment — assess the demand impact of continued price increases.
Meanwhile, the branded-foods company Conagra Brands Inc. CAG, +0.71%,
whose wide-ranging food brands including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Hunt’s, Orville Redenbacher’s and Slim Jim, were starting to see the emergence of a different dynamic.
Chief Executive Sean Connolly said consumers were shifting behavior in some categories as prices remained high. Rather than trade down to lower-priced alternatives, he noticed some consumers buying fewer items overall, “more of a hunkering down than a trading down.”
That’s exactly the kind of consumer behavior that is needed, if companies are to stop feeding into the greedflation phenomenon and to start pulling back on prices.
Food prices rose 0.2% on the month in July after remaining unchanged in June, and they rose 4.9% on the year, while the cost of food at home rose 3.6% on the year, government data released Thursday showed. Prices of fresh fruits and vegetables rose just 1.2% year over year.
However, there were some big — even alarming — outliers: Frozen fruit and vegetable prices increased by 11.8% in July over last year, frozen vegetable prices rose 17.1% and frozen noncarbonated juice and drink prices rose 16.3%.
Those price rises are at odds with overall inflation figures. U.S. consumer prices rose to 3.2% in July from 3% in the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said this week. It was the first increase in 13 months.
Why have the prices of frozen fruits and vegetables shot up over the past 12 months, while the cost of fresh fruits and vegetables has increased so little?
Climate change and extreme weather conditions — from heavy rainfall to drought, particularly in California — have led to big problems for farmers. This has been compounded by issues related to the war in Ukraine and an ongoing increase in the cost of labor, experts said.
As a result, a large proportion of the fruits and vegetables grown were destined to be sold as fresh produce — which led to a shortage of ingredients for frozen goods, said Brad Rubin, sector manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute. “Because of the late crop, lots of produce is being pushed to the fresh market to keep up with demand,” he said.
California weather
California has experienced some drastic weather conditions over the last 12 months. Some 78 trillion gallons of water fell in California during winter 2022 and early spring 2023, according to data from the National Weather Service, delaying planting. And all that snow and rain was followed by a months-long drought in the region.
What happens in California is felt by consumers across the country.
“California produces nearly half of U.S.-grown fruits, nuts and vegetables,” according to estimates from the Sciences College of Agriculture, Food & Environmental Sciences at California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo. “California is the only state in the U.S. to export the following commodities: almonds, artichokes, dates, dried plums, figs, garlic, kiwifruit, olives, pistachios, raisins and walnuts,” it says.
The subsequent price rises hit ingredients like strawberries and raspberries especially hard, Rubin added. Inventories of frozen berries are “near five-year lows” after winter storms in Watsonville flooded agricultural fields, damaging and delaying the strawberry crop. Most of the strawberries in the U.S. are grown in California.
Labor costs
Frozen fruits and vegetables have a longer supply chain than fresh produce, which can make them more vulnerable to disruptions in inventory, experts say. Rising energy prices are also pushing up the cost of cold storage.
In addition to those issues, U.S. farmers are dealing with increased labor costs and fewer migrant workers, partly due to changes in government policies and the closure of borders during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a February 2023 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
“Immigration has traditionally provided an important contribution to the U.S. labor force,” the report said. “The flow of immigrants into the United States began to slow in 2017 due to various government policies, then declined further due to border closures in 2020-21 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This decline in immigration has had a notable effect on the share of immigrants in the U.S. labor force.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also continues to affect agricultural production in the U.S., said Curt Covington, senior director of institutional business at AgAmerica Lending, a financial-services company providing agricultural loans. Because the war disrupted supplies of commodities like wheat and corn — also pushing up prices for those goods — farmers have been prioritizing planting those crops over vegetables.
“These escalating frozen-vegetable prices present a challenge for farmers as they grapple with increased production costs and labor pressures,” and that presents a long-term challenge for farmers, “potentially impacting their profitability,” Covington said.
All of these factors — from international supply chains to extreme weather conditions — will have an effect on the cost of frozen goods in U.S. supermarkets. Ultimately, experts said, consumers will end up paying the price.
““We are actively exploring ways to address account sharing and the best options for paying subscribers to share their accounts with friends and family.””
— Disney CEO Bob Iger
Pour another one out for streaming freeloaders.
Netflix Inc. NFLX, -2.14%
has been cracking down on account-sharing, and now Walt Disney Co. DIS, -0.73%
is likely to follow suit.
Bob Iger, the media giant’s chief executive, said Wednesday that the company was “actively exploring” how to tackle the fact that many streaming subscribers on Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ share passwords and accounts with loved ones.
“Later this year, we will begin to update our subscriber agreements with additional terms on our sharing policies, and we will roll out tactics to drive monetization sometime in 2024,” he said, according to a transcript provided by AlphaSense/Sentieo.
Whereas Netflix suggested that it could be housing 100 million global account borrowers, Iger declined to put a number on Disney’s own base of password sharers, “except to say that it’s significant.”
“What we don’t know, of course, is as we get to work on this, how much of the password-sharing, as we basically eliminate it, will convert to growth” in subscribers, he said. “Obviously, we believe there will be some, but we’re not speculating.”
The company plans to “get at this issue” next calendar year, and the initiative could have some impact on Disney’s business in that period.
“It’s possible that we won’t be complete or the work will not be completed within the calendar year, but we certainly have established this as a real priority, and we actually think that there’s an opportunity here to help us grow our business,” Iger continued.
Disney is making a big push to improve the financials of its streaming business, after spending the stay-home pandemic era focused on raw subscriber growth. Now the company is targeting streaming profitability by the end of fiscal 2024, and it just announced a new round of price hikes in pursuit of that goal.
“We grew this business really fast, really before we even understood what our pricing strategy should be or could be,” Iger commented. In the past six months, the company has started to pursue a pricing strategy “that’s really aimed at enabling us to improve the bottom line, ultimately to turn this into a growth business.”
Netflix is farther along in its efforts, and it’s won praise from Wall Street for them. Executives at the streaming giant indicated early success with Netflix’s broad password-sharing crackdown, though it will take time for the impact to fully manifest in the company’s financials.
My colleagues JP Aubry and Yimeng Yin just released an update on state and local pension plans. Their analysis compared 2023 to 2019 – the year before all the craziness began. Think of the unusual events that have occurred in the last few years: 1) the onset of COVID; 2) the subsequent COVID stimulus; 3) declining interest rates; 4) rising inflation; and then 5) rising interest rates.
Despite the volatility of asset values over this period, the 2023 funded status of state and local pension plans is about 78%, which is 5 percentage points higher than in 2019 (see Figure 1). Of course, the numbers for 2023 are estimates based on plan-by-plan projections, but these projections have an excellent track record.
While the aggregate funded ratio provides a useful measure of the public pension landscape at large, it also can obscure variations in funding at the plan level. Figure 2 separates the plans into thirds based on their current actuarial funded status. The average 2023 funded ratio for each group was 57.6% for the bottom third, 79.5% for the middle third, and 91.1% for the top third.
The major reason for the improvement in plans’ funded status is that, despite the turbulence in the economy, total annualized returns, which include interest and dividends, have risen noticeably for almost all major asset class indexes over the 2019-2023 period (see Figure 3). The exception over this short and volatile period is fixed-income assets, which have declined in value.
The effect of fixed income’s decline on overall portfolio performance has been modest because, since 2019, fixed income has averaged only about 20% of pension fund assets (see Figure 4).
So, things are looking a little better for state and local pensions. Yes, the funded ratios are biased upward because plans use the assumed return on their portfolios – roughly 7% – to discount promised benefits. That said, trends are important, and the trend is good.
Moreover, annual state and local benefit payments as a share of the economy are approaching their peak for two reasons. First, most pension plans do not fully index retiree benefits for inflation, which lowers the real value of benefits over time. Second, the benefit reductions for new hires – introduced in the wake of the Great Recession – have started to have an impact.
With liabilities in check and solid asset performance, maybe we can all relax a bit about the future of the state and local pension system.
The second-quarter earnings season so far is showing that one trend that featured in the first quarter has not gone away.
“Greedflation,” or the practice of companies raising prices to protect their profit margins, is alive and well, based on the number of companies that have so far acknowledged raising prices yet again, even as inflation readings have come down and as some acknowledge that their input costs are falling.
At the same time, companies continue to emphasize on earnings calls that their customers are showing signs they are weary of higher prices and are shopping more frequently at more stores, while spending less per trip.
“Across industries, we’ve seen the same story over and over the last two years,” said Liz Zelnick, director of economic security and corporate power at Accountable.US, a liberal-leaning consumer-advocacy group.
“CEOs claim outside forces made them gouge consumers, then turn around and give themselves raises and boast of record profits and billions in new investor handouts,” she said, referring to the billions of stock buybacks and dividend payouts the same companies have made.
On a call with analysts, Chief Executive Jon Moeller signaled more price increases to come, which he attributed to the company’s innovation pipeline, which is creating must-have products.
“If you look back historically, pricing has been a positive contributor to our top-line growth for something like 48 out of the 51 last quarters and again as we strengthen our innovation program even further, that will provide opportunities to continue to benefit from modest pricing,” said Moeller, according to a FactSet transcript.
The company blew past earnings estimates with adjusted per-share earnings of $1.37, ahead of the $1.32 FactSet consensus, and sales of $20.6 billion, versus the $20 billion FactSet consensus.
Gross margin increased 380 basis points from a year ago, driven by 340 basis points of pricing benefit and 290 basis points of productivity savings.
Coca-Cola Co. KO, -1.51%
also swept past estimates and raised guidance after the drinks and snacks giant increased prices by 10%. The company’s adjusted operating margin rose to 31.6% from 30.6% a year ago.
Conagra Brands Inc. CAG, -0.62%
raised prices by up to 17%, which Chief Executive Sean Connolly described as “inflation-justified.” The parent of brands such as Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Hunt’s, Orville Redenbacher’s and Slim Jim also reported that its customers are buying less food to stretch their budgets.
“[W]hile we did lose share in the quarter, as price gaps have stayed wider for longer than we would have liked, we are managing the business for the long term and still generated mid-single-digit top-line growth within the range of what we expected,” Chief Executive Miguel Patricio said.
The company, parent to brands including Kraft Mac and Cheese, Heinz Ketchup, Jell-O and Lunchables, indicated on the post-earnings conference call with analysts that rather than increasing discounting, or just cutting prices, it will remain focused on protecting margins, which has been allowing it to accelerate investment in the business, particularly in marketing, research and development and technology.
Besides, as Chief Financial Officer Andre Maciel said, the gaps between Kraft’s prices and those of competitors are not getting worse. “If anything, they are slightly getting better,” Maciel said, according to an AlphaSense transcript.
Considering the market-share losses and with inflation coming down, “do you think you took too much price, given you said you took price ahead of competitors, and they have not followed?” UBS analyst Cody Ross asked on the conference call.
CEO Miguel Patricio’s answer was simple: “No.”
“I mean, we had very high inflation. And we are leaders in the vast majority of categories where we play. And it’s our role as leader to try to compensate … this inflation with price increases,” Patricio said. “So I would do everything again. I mean we can always go back on price if we think we have to or when we have to. But we had to lead price increases.”
All of that leaves families to foot the bill for higher food prices, said Accountable.US’s Zelnick.
The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund XLP
has gained 1.2% in the year to date, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT
has gained 10.3%. The S&P 500 XRT
has gained 17%.
