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  • Morgan Stanley earnings fall 10% but beat Wall Street expectations

    Morgan Stanley earnings fall 10% but beat Wall Street expectations

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    Morgan Stanley on Wednesday said its third-quarter profit fell 10% amid weakness in its investment banking business, but its trading and asset-management revenue rose.

    Morgan Stanley
    MS,
    +2.03%

    said profit for the three months ended Sept. 30 fell to $2.26 billion, or $1.38 a share, from $2.49 billion, or $1.47 a share, in the year-ago period.

    Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Morgan Stanley to earn $1.28 a share.

    At the start of the quarter, analysts were expecting earnings of $1.58 a share.

    Revenue fell 1% to $13.27 billion, ahead of the FactSet consensus estimate of $13.22 billion.

    Morgan Stanley’s stock fell 2.8% in premarket trading on Wednesday.

    Chief Executive James Gorman said the market environment was mixed.

    “Our equity and fixed income businesses navigated markets well, and both wealth management and investment management producer higher revenues and profits year-over-year,” Gorman said.

    Morgan Stanley’s stock fell 4.4% in the third quarter in a choppy period for bank stocks overall. Prior to Wednesday’s trades, the stock was down just under 10% in the past month, compared with 1.9% drop by the S&P 500
    SPX.

    For the third quarter, trading revenue rose 10% in the quarter to $3.68 billion.

    Asset-management revenue increased by 6% to $5.03 billion, while investment-banking revenue dropped 24% to $1.05 billion.

    During the past month, 11 analysts cut their profit estimates for Morgan Stanley and only one increased their view.

    UBS analyst Brennan Hawken downgraded Morgan Stanley to neutral from buy last week, cutting his price target to $84 from $110.

    “Despite its successful transformation into a wealth-management-focused firm with a solid, wire house peer leading growth profile, MS is confronted with obstacles such as deposit sorting/yield seeking, intense competition for talent, and a challenging revenue environment,” Hawken said.

    The average rating among 26 analysts that cover Morgan Stanley is overweight.

    The bank is in the midst of a leadership transition, with Chief Executive James Gorman planning to step down by next May. Three potential successors at the bank include Andy Saperstein, who heads up wealth management; Ted Pick, who runs capital markets; and Dan Simkowitz, head of investment management.

    Also read: Bank of America’s profit climbs 10%, boosted by interest rates and loans

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  • Selloff in Treasurys gains momentum in late afternoon, pushing 3-month through 30-year yields either further above or toward 5%

    Selloff in Treasurys gains momentum in late afternoon, pushing 3-month through 30-year yields either further above or toward 5%

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    Tuesday’s selloff in U.S. government debt picked up steam in the late afternoon, sending most Treasury yields either further above or toward 5%. The jump in market-implied rates was led by 3- through 7-year yields, which each rose by 17 basis points, according to FactSet data. The benchmark 10-year rate was up 14.4 basis points at 4.853% after September’s stronger-than-expected retail sales report, and is on pace for its largest one-day jump since at least Sept. 21. Two- and 10-year yields are both heading for their highest closing levels in 16 to 17 years.

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  • House speaker election: Jim Jordan isn’t a lock for the post before vote this afternoon

    House speaker election: Jim Jordan isn’t a lock for the post before vote this afternoon

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    It wasn’t clear Tuesday if Rep. Jim Jordan would be successful in his push to become the next speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, with a floor vote drawing near and the Ohio Republican needing the support of a majority of the chamber.

    The narrowly divided chamber is expected to vote in the early afternoon to select a speaker, with the move coming after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted two weeks ago and after No. 2 House Republican Steve Scalise ended his bid for the post last Thursday.

    An ally of former President Donald Trump who secured his party’s nomination for the role on Friday, Jordan needs to have 217 votes in his favor, so he can only afford to have four fellow Republicans vote against him as no Democrats are expected to support him. The House has 221 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with two vacancies.

    While Jordan racked up significant endorsements Monday, more than four House Republicans are on record as being against him and others are leaning toward “no” votes, as shown in the chart below that comes from a CNN producer.

    McCarthy needed 15 rounds of voting in January to secure the speakership.  The California congressman repeatedly saw around 20 fellow Republicans vote against him before finally prevailing.

    There are “plenty of reasons to think” House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jordan will “be able to grind it out once people are on record,” but the situation is still “unsettled,” said Liam Donovan, a former GOP operative who is now a principal at law and lobbying firm Bracewell, in a post on X.

    One possible key is whether support for Jordan declines or not in a second round of voting, according to Matt Glassman, a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Government Affairs Institute. He made that point in his post below.

    Analysts have been discussing whether a Jordan speakership could mean a greater likelihood of a government shutdown that weighs on markets
    SPX
    in mid-November, when funding is due to run out from last month’s continuing resolution, or CR.

    “Jordan voted against the CR a few weeks ago and has opposed most government spending bills in the past, so some people think he would be comfortable with a government shutdown next month.  That view has some merit, however, as speaker, Jordan would be responsible for helping vulnerable House Republicans who represent competitive districts,” said Brian Gardner, Stifel’s chief Washington policy strategist, in a note.

    “His new role could put Mr. Jordan in the position of having to make compromises with Democrats — new territory for him.  The more likely outcome is that, if elected speaker, Jordan will support an extension of the CR.”

    U.S. stocks
    DJIA

    COMP
    were advancing Tuesday, helped by encouraging earnings from big banks. Investors also are weighing rising geopolitical risks and better-than expected retail sales.

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  • House speaker election: Jim Jordan racks up endorsements before vote at noon Tuesday

    House speaker election: Jim Jordan racks up endorsements before vote at noon Tuesday

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    Rep. Jim Jordan made progress Monday in his push to become the next speaker of the House of Representatives, winning endorsements from some fellow Republicans who just last week had refused to back him.

    The narrowly divided chamber of Congress is expected to vote around noon Eastern Tuesday to select a speaker, with the move coming after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted two weeks ago and after No. 2 House Republican Steve Scalise ended his bid for the post last week.

    GOP Rep. Ann Wagner of Missouri, who previously said a Jordan speakership was a non-starter for her, switched her stance on Monday. She said in a post on X that her colleague from Ohio “has allayed my concerns about keeping the government open with conservative funding, the need for strong border security, our need for consistent international support in times of war and unrest … as well as the need for stronger protections against the scourge of human trafficking and child exploitation.”

    Similarly, GOP Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee, announced in a post on X that he was backing Jordan after saying last week that there was nothing that Jordan could do to win his support. Rogers pointed to an accord on an annual Pentagon bill, the National Defense Authorization Act, saying he and Jordan had “agreed on the need for Congress to pass a strong NDAA, appropriations to fund our government’s vital functions, and other important legislation like the Farm Bill.”

    Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan of Florida offered his support for Jordan as well on Monday, though he noted that he’s “deeply frustrated by the way this process has played out.” Another endorsement came from GOP Rep. Ken Calvert of California, who chairs the House Appropriations Committee’s defense subpanel.

    Jordan — who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trumpsent a letter to his colleagues in which he called for coming together after a chaotic two weeks, saying: “It is time we unite to get back to work on behalf of the American people.” The congressman, a co-founder of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, also told CNN that he was confident about Tuesday’s vote, saying: “I feel good about it.”

    Analysts have been warning that the process of finding a replacement for McCarthy is preventing the House from addressing crucial matters, such as avoiding a government shutdown next month and supporting Israel in its war against Hamas.

    House Republicans made Jordan their nominee for speaker on Friday, but he drew just 124 votes while 81 lawmakers backed another candidate for speaker, GOP Rep. Austin Scott of Georgia. In another round of voting on Friday, Jordan still had 55 colleagues voting against him, but he now appears to be flipping some of them to his side.

    One betting market, Smarkets, was giving Jordan a 33% chance of becoming speaker. 

    Spending cuts and shutdown coming?

    Having Jordan as speaker could mean a 1% cut in defense
    ITA
    and non-defense spending, noted Philip Wallach, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. That’s because this year’s debt-limit deal includes a provision that calls for such reductions if there aren’t bipartisan agreements on a dozen funding bills before Jan. 1 and instead a reliance on short-term measures known as continuing resolutions, or CRs.

    “It is now clear,” Wallach said during an AEI event on Monday, that Jordan’s “plan is to have us live off continuing resolutions and implement this 1% cut.”

    “That’s a concrete thing where he could say, ‘Well, we’re moving in the right direction. We’ve taken a hard stand,’” the AEI expert added.

    The CEO of one financial advisory firm also sees standoffs in the future.

    “We expect the next U.S. speaker will be less inclined to make deals than McCarthy; in many ways it makes more sense for them, politically, not to be a deal-maker in the current environment,” said deVere Group’s Nigel Green in a statement.

    “We believe that a U.S. government shutdown is now more likely with a new speaker of the House, and this has the potential to create a domino effect in global financial markets
    SPX.

    BTIG analysts Isaac Boltansky and Isabel Bandoroff said the speaker drama suggests that next year’s election will also be full of twists and turns.

    “We have followed every twist and turn of the speakership race, and there is only one takeaway we can share with absolute certainty: This confirms that the 2024 election cycle will be exhausting, volatile, and just downright weird from beginning to end,” they wrote in a note.

    U.S. stocks
    DJIA

    COMP
    closed higher Monday, as investors looked ahead to earnings season and unwound the flight-to-safety trades seen last week on fears the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into a wider conflict.

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  • S&P 500 books best day since late-August as stocks rally to start the week

    S&P 500 books best day since late-August as stocks rally to start the week

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    U.S. stocks rallied on Monday to finish the first trading day of the week in the green as investors shrugged off concerns the conflict erupted last week between Israel and Hamas may lead to a broader war in the Middle East, while looking ahead to the start of the third-quarter earnings season to better gauge the economy’s temperature. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.93%

    advanced 313 points, or 0.9%, to end at 33,984, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.06%

    rose 1.1% and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +1.20%

    gained 1.2%. The rally in the traditional safe-haven assets paused on Monday, with the most-active December gold contract settled lower, at $1,934.30 an ounce on Comex, reversing course after rising safe-haven demand spurred a series of gains in the yellow metal. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday afternoon, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury up 8.1 basis points to 4.709%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury jumped 8.8 basis points to 4.865%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

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  • These are the biggest money mistakes we make in our 20s, 30s and 40s

    These are the biggest money mistakes we make in our 20s, 30s and 40s

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    Financial literacy peaks at age 54, according to a 2022 study. That’s around the time you’ve gained enough knowledge and experience to make sound money decisions — and before your cognitive ability might start to ebb.

    “As we get older, we seem to rely more on past experience, rules of thumb, and intuitive knowledge about which products and strategies are better,” said Rafal Chomik, an economist in Australia who led the study.

    If people in their mid-50s tend to make smart financial moves, where does that leave younger generations?

    Advisers often educate clients at different stages of life to avoid money mistakes. While those in their 50s usually demonstrate optimal prudence  in navigating investments and savings, advisers keep busy helping others — from twentysomethings to mid-career professionals — avoid costly financial blunders:

    Navigate your 20s

    Perhaps the biggest blunder for young earners is spending too much and saving too little. They may also lack the long-term perspective that encourages long-range planning.

    “The mistake is not establishing the saving habit early, and not appreciating the power of compounding” over time, said Mark Kravietz, a certified financial planner in Melville, N.Y.

    Similarly, it’s common for young workers to delay enrolling in an employer-sponsored retirement plan. Not participating from the get-go comes with a steep long-term cost.

    Better to prioritize debt with the highest interest rate, which can result in paying less interest over the long run.

    People in their 20s process incoming information quickly. But their high level of fluid intelligence can work against them. Cursory research into a consumer trend or hot sector of the stock market can spur them to make rash investments. Such impulsive moves might backfire.

    “It’s important to resist the hype,” Kravietz said. “Don’t chase fads or try to make fast money” by timing the market.

    Many young adults with student debt juggle multiple loans. Eager to chip away at their debt, they fall into the trap of choosing the wrong loan to tackle first, says Megan Kowalski, an adviser in Boca Raton, Fla.

    Rather than pay off the highest-interest rate loan first (so-called avalanche debt), they mistakenly focus on the smallest loan (a.k.a. snowball debt). It’s better to prioritize debt with the highest interest rate, which can result in paying less interest over the long run.

    Navigate your 30s

    Resist the temptation to lower your 401(k) contribution to boost your take-home pay.

    By your 30s, insurance grows in importance. You want to protect what you have — now and in the future. But many people in this age group neglect their insurance needs. Or they misunderstand which coverages matter most.

    “If you have a life partner and kids, get the proper life insurance while in your 30s,” Kravietz said. 

    It’s easy to get caught up in your career and assume you can put off life insurance. But even low odds of your untimely death doesn’t mean you can ignore the risk of leaving your loved ones without a cash cushion.

    Another common blunder involves disability insurance. If your employer offers short-term disability insurance as an employee perk, you may think you’re all set.

    However, the real risk is how you’d earn income if you suffer a serious and lasting illness or injury. Don’t confuse short-term disability insurance (which might cover you for as long as one year) with long-term disability coverage that pays benefits for many years.

    Assuming you were wise enough to enroll in your employer-sponsored retirement plan from the outset, don’t slough off in your 30s. Resist the temptation to lower your 401(k) contribution to boost your take-home pay.

    “You want to give till it hurts,” Kravietz said. “Keep putting money away” in your 401(k) or other tax-advantaged plan until you feel a sting. Weigh the minor pain you feel now against the major relief of having a much bigger nest egg decades from now.

    Navigate your 40s

    ‘The 40s are often the most expensive in anyone’s life. Life is getting more complicated.’

    For Kravietz, the 40s represent a decade of heavy spending pressures. Mid-career professionals face a mortgage and mounting tuition bills for their children.

    “The 40s are often the most expensive in anyone’s life,” he said. “Life is getting more complicated.”

    As a result, it’s easy to overlook seemingly minor financial matters like updating beneficiaries on your 401(k) plan or completing all the appropriate estate documents such as a will.

    “People in their 40s sometimes fail to update beneficiaries,” Kravietz said. For example, a new marriage might mean changing the beneficiary from a prior partner or current parent to the new spouse.

    It’s also easy to get complacent about your investments, especially if you’re the conservative type who favors a set-it-and-forget-it strategy. Instead, think in terms of tax optimization.

    “In your 40s, you want to take advantage of what the government gives you,” Kravietz said. “If you have a lot of money in a bank money market account and you’re in a top tax bracket, shifting some of that money into municipal bonds can make sense” depending on your state of residence and other factors.

    If you’re saving for a child’s college tuition using a 529 plan — and you have parents who also want to chip in — work together to strategize. Don’t make assumptions about how much (or how little) your parents might contribute to your kid’s education.

    “Rather than assume you’ll have to pay a certain amount for educational expenses, coordinate between generations of parents and grandparents” on how much they intend to give, Kowalski said. “That way, you’re not duplicating efforts and you won’t put extra funds in a 529 plan.”

    More: 7 more ways to save that you may not have considered

    Also read: ‘We live a rather lavish lifestyle’: My wife and I are 33, live in New York City and earn $270,000. Can we retire at 55?

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  • Charles Schwab stock drops after revenue falls a bit shy of expectations, amid trading weakness

    Charles Schwab stock drops after revenue falls a bit shy of expectations, amid trading weakness

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    Shares of Charles Schwab Corp.
    SCHW,
    +5.42%

    fell 1.5% toward a five-month low in premarket trading Monday, after the financial services and discount brokerage giant beat third-quarter profit expectations but fell a bit shy on revenue. Net income dropped to $1.02 billion, or 56 cents a share, from $1.88 billion, or 99 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share of 77 cents beat the FactSet consensus of 74 cents. Revenue declined 16.3% to $4.606 billion, below the FactSet consensus of $4.615 billion. Net interest revenue fell 23.5% to $2.237 billion to beat the FactSet consensus of $2.218 billion, while asset management and administration fee revenue rose 16.9% to $1.224 billion, in line with expectations, and trading revenue was down 17.4% to $768 million to miss expectations of $804 million. New brokerage accounts were flat from a year ago but down 7% from the sequential second quarter. The stock has declined 12.3% over the past three months through Friday while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.19%

    has slipped 3.9%.

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  • Stocks Are Poised to Rise Monday

    Stocks Are Poised to Rise Monday

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    U.S. stocks are poised to rise on Monday ahead of a week of earnings and economic data releases, including quarterly reports from Tesla, Netflix, and .

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  • Why Treasurys could give the U.S. stock market a green light for a year-end rally

    Why Treasurys could give the U.S. stock market a green light for a year-end rally

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    The volatility in the world’s biggest bond market in recent weeks has been too much for U.S. stocks to handle as investors come to terms with the likelihood that interest rates will remain high deep into 2024 until underlying inflationary pressures ease. 

    The U.S. Treasury market, the bedrock of the global financial system, has been hammered by repeated selling since late September, sending the yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasurys to levels last seen when the economy was moving toward the financial crisis in 200, before yields fell again in the past week.

    Back in September a bond market selloff was fueled by a hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve, along with mounting concern about the U.S. fiscal deficit and federal debt amid the potential for a government shutdown if a budget for the 2024 fiscal year is not settled by mid-November.

    Earlier this week though, increased uncertainty about the conflict in the Middle East propelled demand for safer assets and caused longer-term bond prices to jump and their yields to fall.

    Then, on Thursday, a Treasury bond auction which saw a pullback in demand despite notably higher yields, sent longer-term rates higher again while investors were already digesting inflation data that showed consumer prices remained elevated in September. The U.S. stocks fell and booked their worst day in five sessions on Thursday. 

    Investors are now wondering what it will take for interest rates and bond yields to fall in the months ahead and whether a retreat in yields could eventually push stocks higher to rally into the year-end. 

    Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, said “excessive pessimism” in the bond market is setting up for a relief rally both in stock and bond prices as “there’s not as much inflationary pressures as the market has been pricing in,” he told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Thursday.

    Hayes said his team found the bond sentiment data has started to reflect a “decisive reversal” away from too much pessimism in the Treasury market which could send bond yields lower and boost equities given the inverse correlations between the S&P 500
    SPX
    and the 10-year Treasury note yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y.
     

    See: Here is what needs to happen for the S&P 500 to hold on to this year’s gains

    Meanwhile, some analysts said disinflation may not be enough for the Federal Reserve to drop its “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative which was primarily responsible for the big spike in yields since September. 

    The economy needs a slowdown in the consumer sector for some relaxation in the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” narrative and to maybe push policymakers to adopt a more flexible outlook for its long-term guidance, said Thierry Wizman, global FX and interest rates strategist at Macquarie. 

    “Of course, the Fed right now is certainly not saying anything that’s remotely suggestive of ‘high-for-long’ being taken away or being removed or negated, so I don’t expect yields to fall a lot unless we start to get reasons to believe the Fed is going to remove that narrative based on the economic data,” Wizman told MarketWatch via phone. 

    However, Wizman said he is confident that the U.S. consumption data will weaken over the next few months when major consumer-product and -service companies start to provide guidance for the fourth quarter, and when U.S. consumers, which have been trapped in a web of conflicting signals on the health of the economy, open their wallet for the holiday shopping season. 

    “This will produce some weakness on the consumer side of the market and there’s no doubt the slowdown will be more pronounced than most people expect in the economy, [but] that will be the positive scenario for bonds,” said Marco Pirondini, head of U.S. equities at Amundi U.S., in an interview with MarketWatch. 

    However, that also means investors should not be “too anxious to buy dips in the stock market” because it would be very unusual if the stock market doesn’t see “multiple compression” with Treasury yields at 16-year highs, Wizman said. “Stocks would still look too rich even if the Fed drops the ‘higher-for-longer’ narrative in the first quarter of 2024.”

    See: Fed skips rate hike for now, but doesn’t rule out another increase this year

    The “higher-for-longer” mantra is an idea Fed officials have tried to get the market to absorb in recent months, with Fed Chair Powell hardening his rhetoric at the September FOMC meeting, pointing potentially to more rate hikes or, more importantly, interest rates that stay higher for longer.

    Fed officials saw interest rates coming down to 5.1% in 2024, higher than June’s outlook for rates to finish next year at 4.6%, according to the latest Summary of Economic Projections at the September policy meeting.

    See: Stock-market moves show bond traders are still in charge as yields renew rise

    However, Wizman characterized the “higher-than-longer” narrative as a “publicity stunt,” as he thought Fed officials simply wanted to signal to the market that they were frustrated that financial conditions hadn’t measurably tightened enough in 2023, so they utilized the narrative to get rising Treasury yields to do some of the “heavy lifting.” 

    “… Fed officials are not really serious about ‘higher-for-longer’ – they just did it to drive long-term yields higher for now,” he added. 

    If a slowdown in the consumer sector of the economy and ongoing disinflation are powerful enough to sap Fed’s rate expectations, Treasury yields could continue to decline without having to have a calamity or big recession in the U.S. economy to drive investors back to the safe-haven assets like Treasurys, strategists said.  

    See: U.S. stock-market seasonality suggests a potential rally in the fourth quarter. Why this time might be different.

    Meanwhile, stock-market seasonality may also help lift sentiment. Historically, the fourth quarter has been the best quarter for the U.S. stock market, with the large-cap S&P 500 index up nearly 80% of the time dating back to 1950 and gaining more than 4% on average. 

    The S&P 500 has risen 0.9% so far in the fourth quarter, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    has advanced 1.4% in October, according to FactSet data.

    “So you have this situation where sentiment got stretched and now sentiment is reversing with more confidence that bond yields have reached their peak, so equities can rally moving into the end of the year, and that should start to become increasingly evident,” said Hayes.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped 8.2 basis points to 4.628% on Friday, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury 
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    declined by 9.2 basis points to 4.777%. The 30-year yield fell 16.4 basis points this week, its largest weekly drop since the period that ended March 10, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

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  • These are the biggest money mistakes we make in our 20s, 30s and 40s

    These are the biggest money mistakes we make in our 20s, 30s and 40s

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    Financial literacy peaks at age 54, according to a 2022 study. That’s around the time you’ve gained enough knowledge and experience to make sound money decisions — and before your cognitive ability might start to ebb.

    “As we get older, we seem to rely more on past experience, rules of thumb, and intuitive knowledge about which products and strategies are better,” said Rafal Chomik, an economist in Australia who led the study.

    If people in their mid-50s tend to make smart financial moves, where does that leave younger generations?

    Advisers often educate clients at different stages of life to avoid money mistakes. While those in their 50s usually demonstrate optimal prudence  in navigating investments and savings, advisers keep busy helping others — from twentysomethings to mid-career professionals — avoid costly financial blunders:

    Navigate your 20s

    Perhaps the biggest blunder for young earners is spending too much and saving too little. They may also lack the long-term perspective that encourages long-range planning.

    “The mistake is not establishing the saving habit early, and not appreciating the power of compounding” over time, said Mark Kravietz, a certified financial planner in Melville, N.Y.

    Similarly, it’s common for young workers to delay enrolling in an employer-sponsored retirement plan. Not participating from the get-go comes with a steep long-term cost.

    Better to prioritize debt with the highest interest rate, which can result in paying less interest over the long run.

    People in their 20s process incoming information quickly. But their high level of fluid intelligence can work against them. Cursory research into a consumer trend or hot sector of the stock market can spur them to make rash investments. Such impulsive moves might backfire.

    “It’s important to resist the hype,” Kravietz said. “Don’t chase fads or try to make fast money” by timing the market.

    Many young adults with student debt juggle multiple loans. Eager to chip away at their debt, they fall into the trap of choosing the wrong loan to tackle first, says Megan Kowalski, an adviser in Boca Raton, Fla.

    Rather than pay off the highest-interest rate loan first (so-called avalanche debt), they mistakenly focus on the smallest loan (a.k.a. snowball debt). It’s better to prioritize debt with the highest interest rate, which can result in paying less interest over the long run.

    Navigate your 30s

    Resist the temptation to lower your 401(k) contribution to boost your take-home pay.

    By your 30s, insurance grows in importance. You want to protect what you have — now and in the future. But many people in this age group neglect their insurance needs. Or they misunderstand which coverages matter most.

    “If you have a life partner and kids, get the proper life insurance while in your 30s,” Kravietz said. 

    It’s easy to get caught up in your career and assume you can put off life insurance. But even low odds of your untimely death doesn’t mean you can ignore the risk of leaving your loved ones without a cash cushion.

    Another common blunder involves disability insurance. If your employer offers short-term disability insurance as an employee perk, you may think you’re all set.

    However, the real risk is how you’d earn income if you suffer a serious and lasting illness or injury. Don’t confuse short-term disability insurance (which might cover you for as long as one year) with long-term disability coverage that pays benefits for many years.

    Assuming you were wise enough to enroll in your employer-sponsored retirement plan from the outset, don’t slough off in your 30s. Resist the temptation to lower your 401(k) contribution to boost your take-home pay.

    “You want to give till it hurts,” Kravietz said. “Keep putting money away” in your 401(k) or other tax-advantaged plan until you feel a sting. Weigh the minor pain you feel now against the major relief of having a much bigger nest egg decades from now.

    Navigate your 40s

    ‘The 40s are often the most expensive in anyone’s life. Life is getting more complicated.’

    For Kravietz, the 40s represent a decade of heavy spending pressures. Mid-career professionals face a mortgage and mounting tuition bills for their children.

    “The 40s are often the most expensive in anyone’s life,” he said. “Life is getting more complicated.”

    As a result, it’s easy to overlook seemingly minor financial matters like updating beneficiaries on your 401(k) plan or completing all the appropriate estate documents such as a will.

    “People in their 40s sometimes fail to update beneficiaries,” Kravietz said. For example, a new marriage might mean changing the beneficiary from a prior partner or current parent to the new spouse.

    It’s also easy to get complacent about your investments, especially if you’re the conservative type who favors a set-it-and-forget-it strategy. Instead, think in terms of tax optimization.

    “In your 40s, you want to take advantage of what the government gives you,” Kravietz said. “If you have a lot of money in a bank money market account and you’re in a top tax bracket, shifting some of that money into municipal bonds can make sense” depending on your state of residence and other factors.

    If you’re saving for a child’s college tuition using a 529 plan — and you have parents who also want to chip in — work together to strategize. Don’t make assumptions about how much (or how little) your parents might contribute to your kid’s education.

    “Rather than assume you’ll have to pay a certain amount for educational expenses, coordinate between generations of parents and grandparents” on how much they intend to give, Kowalski said. “That way, you’re not duplicating efforts and you won’t put extra funds in a 529 plan.”

    More: 7 more ways to save that you may not have considered

    Also read: ‘We live a rather lavish lifestyle’: My wife and I are 33, live in New York City and earn $270,000. Can we retire at 55?

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  • Jim Jordan nominated for speaker by House GOP amid worries over government shutdown and support for Israel

    Jim Jordan nominated for speaker by House GOP amid worries over government shutdown and support for Israel

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    Rep. Jim Jordan won the nomination Friday to be speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives after launching a fresh bid for the position, as analysts warned that the process of finding a replacement for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was preventing the Republican-run chamber from addressing crucial matters.

    Jordan, an Ohio Republican who chairs the House Judiciary Committee, said “yup” on Friday morning when he was asked if he was running again for speaker after House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, ended his bid late Thursday.

    House Republicans voted in favor of Jordan in the afternoon, with 124 supporting him and 81 backing another candidate for speaker, GOP Rep. Austin Scott of Georgia, according to multiple reports. Republican lawmakers then left for the weekend and were expected to reconvene Monday.

    Rep. Austin Scott, a Georgia Republican, also spoke to reporters about the House speaker position on Friday.


    Getty Images

    Scott, who has been in office since 2011, said in a post on X that he wanted to “lead a House that functions in the best interest of the American people.”

    To become speaker of the GOP-led chamber, a candidate must earn the support of a majority of House Republicans. Jordan has crossed that hurdle but now must prevail in a vote on the House floor. Scalise bowed out of the running after it appeared he did not have sufficient support for a floor vote.

    See: House speaker election — how it works

    “[W]e need to be unified and get to the floor, and we want that to happen as soon as possible,” Jordan told Cleveland.com before the GOP vote on Friday.

    Scalise’s decision to drop his bid “delays the resumption of meaningful legislative
    business at least well into next week,” Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, said in a note on Friday.

    A similar warning came from Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments. The House has had a temporary speaker — GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina — since Oct. 3, when McCarthy was ousted in a historic vote.

    “This paralysis in the House is becoming a serious issue, as major legislation has stalled,” Valliere said in a note. “A government shutdown can’t be ruled out as the next deadline approaches on Nov. 17. More aid to Israel and Ukraine is widely supported in both parties and in both houses, but can this funding overcome procedural hurdles in the House?”

    Related: Kevin McCarthy’s ouster means chance of government shutdown next month ‘just went up to 80%,’ analyst says

    One betting market, Smarkets, was giving Jordan, a co-founder of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus, a 42% chance of becoming speaker. The Ohio congressman “faces difficult math,” as at least five Republican lawmakers are expected to vote against him on the House floor, and their ranks “may balloon by the time a floor vote is called,” Height’s Salisbury said.

    Other options that have gotten attention include giving more power to McHenry, the temporary speaker, or making a bipartisan deal on a speaker.

    U.S. stocks
    SPX

    DJIA

    COMP
    closed mostly lower Friday, with the selling blamed in part on the Israel-Hamas war.

    Now read: What U.S. political dysfunction means for the stock market and investors

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  • SEC proposal could slow innovation in trading, panel says

    SEC proposal could slow innovation in trading, panel says

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    The Security Traders Association conference in D.C. led a panel about the SEC’s proposal to scale back robo-advisors and AI in markets.

    A Securities and Exchange Commission proposal designed to regulate the use of predictive data analytics and AI by broker-dealers and investment advisors could slow the sector’s pace of innovation and increase costs for clients, panelists said at a Security Traders Association conference Friday.

    The SEC’s proposal, released in July, would require broker-dealers and investment advisors to “eliminate or neutralize” conflicts of interest related to the use of “covered” technologies in investor interactions, such as analytical functions, algorithms and models that predict, guide or direct investment-related behaviors. Firms would also be required to maintain policies and recordkeeping related to possible conflicts of interest. 

    Panelists, which included leaders at Robinhood and the American Securities Association, critiqued the proposal for being vague, onerous and costly to broker-dealers and investment advisors.

    Matt Billings, vice president of brokerage and president at Robinhood Financial and Robinhood Securities, said the proposal feels rushed. He added any rulemaking should start with extensive cross-industry conversation, data analysis and economic analysis. 

    “All the costs that we discussed that we’ll absorb, that’s going to leech down to the investor,” Billings said. “Then, with all this intense amount of policy and procedures and recordkeeping, maybe a firm decides not to offer that covered technology, or maybe they slow down their pace of innovation … the result of that is a worse experience for the client.”

    SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said in a September hearing held by the Senate Banking Committee that AI is already being used in financial markets and could pose a systemic risk to the financial system.

    “If an investment advisor, think about a robo advisor, is telling you their advice and it’s purely based on your family and your wealth and so forth, great,” Gensler said at the hearing. “But if they’re also taking into account their own interest and profits, their revenues and the like, therein lies a potential conflict. And whether they’re using machine learning or other data analytics, there may be a conflict there.” 

    Many banks, such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon, would also be impacted by the rule. Morgan Stanley is using generative AI to assist financial advisors with investment advice, CNBC reported, and JPMorgan Chase is developing a ChatGPT-like service to help select investments for clients.

    In comment letters to the SEC, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley both said the proposal was unnecessary and overly burdensome. Panelists and comment letters also note that the proposed rule extends beyond artificial intelligence and emerging technologies to include common spreadsheets. JPMorgan said in its letter that the SEC should propose a rule “narrowly targeted to address” concerns around technology-driven interactions “where conflicts of interest are not disclosed or evident to a reasonable retail investor.”

    “In accordance with our core values, Morgan Stanley acknowledges the SEC’s objectives to protect investors and support responsible implementation of technology, including technology such as predictive data analytics,” Morgan Stanley wrote in its comment. “However, we respectfully believe the proposed rules’ scope and significant obligations are overly broad in light of the robust and comprehensive regulatory framework that is already in effect for broker-dealers and investment advisers.”

    Elad Roisman, a partner at Cravath, Swaine & Moore, said on the Friday panel that he doesn’t think the SEC adequately identified the problem it’s solving, or issues that can’t be addressed with existing regulation.

    Brett Redfearn, an investment advisor who previously served in capital market leadership roles at JPMorgan Chase, the SEC and Coinbase, said in the panel that he thinks this rule goes beyond investor protection. 

    “I really do believe that we have to look a lot harder on what’s happening in our market, and the way in which we use technology without taking an overly simplistic and probably not fully thought-out analysis that results in this kind of attack on tech,” Redfearn said.

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    Catherine Leffert

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  • Long U.S. dollar now seen as the most crowded trade, but bodes ill for the greenback

    Long U.S. dollar now seen as the most crowded trade, but bodes ill for the greenback

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    Long positions in the U.S. dollar is now considered the most crowded trade, according to a survey conducted by the Bank of America with global fund managers, but the greenback is likely near a peak, the bank said.

    The bank surveyed 67 fund managers managing $997 billion assets under management from the United States, United Kingdom, Continental Europe and Asia from October 6 to 11.

    The response represents a shift from early August as fund managers surveyed became more concerned about interest rates in September, according to the Bank of America note. 

    The latest survey bodes ill for the U.S. dollar
    DXY,
    as the equity rally this year has partially corrected and bond yields risen, after earlier making it to the most crowded trade, according to the bank’s strategists. 

    “We believe USD is near the peak, further strength requires a change in narrative,” the strategists wrote. 

    The ICE U.S. Dollar Index
    DXY,
    which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of rivals, has slightly pulled back from its highest close in 11 months at 107 reached on Oct. 3, according to FactSet data. The index is mostly flat on Friday at around 106.6.

    Strong economic data in the U.S. coupled with a relatively more hawkish Federal Reserve than other major central banks, could be the most likely reason to support further strength in the dollar, according to the fund managers surveyed.


    BofA Global Research

    Meanwhile, the biggest downside risk to the greenback is if the U.S. economy sees a hard landing which will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut its policy interest rates. 


    BofA Global Research

    Respondents of the survey think that rate cuts are currently underpriced, and they think the Fed is likely to cut rates the most among major central banks. 

    “This should erode faith in USD strength, and suggests that USD longs may indeed be vulnerable,” the strategists noted. 

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  • Dow Jones ekes out gain Friday, stocks mostly advance for the week as Israel-Gaza war escalates

    Dow Jones ekes out gain Friday, stocks mostly advance for the week as Israel-Gaza war escalates

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    U.S. stocks closed mostly lower Friday, but the Dow Jones and S&P 500 posted weekly gains, as the Israel-Gaza war appeared to escalate heading into the weekend. The Dow Jones Industries
    DJIA,
    +0.12%

    rose about 39 points, or 0.1%, on Friday, ending near 33,670, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.50%

    fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    -1.23%

    closed 1.2% lower. The S&P 500’s energy segment outperformed Friday, gaining 2.3%, as U.S. benchmark crude surged nearly 6% after Israel ordered more than a million people in Gaza to evacuate to the south. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.626%

    rate retreating to 4.628% Friday, snapping a 5-week yield climb, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction. Investors bought other haven assets too, including gold
    GC00,
    +0.23%

    and the U.S. dollar
    DXY,
    +0.07%
    .
    Wall Street’s “fear gauge”
    VIX,
    +15.76%

    also touched its highest level in more than a week. Even so, the Dow Jones booked at 0.8% weekly gain, the S&P 500 advanced 0.5% and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%.

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  • Your retirement checklist: 9 steps toward a better retirement

    Your retirement checklist: 9 steps toward a better retirement

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    The U.S. is approaching “peak 65.” Are you ready for it?

    The number of people who turn 65 every day will peak in 2024, and more people will be staring at the possibility of retirement, often without a plan or a roadmap to help them thrive. Given that more people are living longer, that’s a long time to spend bored, lonely or financially insecure.

    Here’s a checklist to help you navigate the financial decisions, legal complications and social ramifications of retiring. Since 60% of workers retire earlier than planned, according to the Transamerica Institute and the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, you shouldn’t leave these tasks to the last minute. Get started now.

    1. Update your will and estate-planning documents

    Your will may be decades out of date and your financial accounts may have beneficiaries linked to a previous marriage. Dust off those documents and get them refreshed as soon as possible.

    “Before you even start thinking about retirement, there’s some housekeeping that needs to get done,” says Eric Bond, the president of Bond Wealth Management. 

    On your immediate to-do list, make sure you have a will, power of attorney and healthcare power of attorney in case you become incapacitated and can’t act on your own behalf. You’ll also need a HIPAA waiver as well as a trust, says Catherine Collinson, the chief executive and president of the nonprofit Transamerica Institute and Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies.

    “There’s still widespread belief that trusts are only for the affluent, but they’re for everyone,” Collinson says. “It’s amazing how small issues can take on enormous bureaucratic proportions. You want to try to avoid that.”

    Nicholas Yeomans, a financial adviser and the president of Yeomans Consulting Group, says to check retirement plans, life insurance and annuity accounts to make sure you have your beneficiaries listed properly. You may have a will, but beware that beneficiaries on such accounts supersede a will, he says. Be sure to name secondary or contingent beneficiaries, as well.

    2. Create a budget

    “It’s really basic, but only 23% of preretirees and 19% of retirees have a written plan. Until you put the numbers into a spreadsheet, it’s impossible to come up with realistic expectations for how you’re going to live your life. Otherwise, you’re just winging it,” Collinson says.

    “Life is much more complicated and challenging. You need backup plans and contingency plans,” she says. “It’s really important to plan for life’s unforeseen circumstances.”

    Bond, meanwhile, cautions that people who retire in their 60s need to realize that longevity has increased and they could be retired for decades.

    “Milk and eggs are not getting cheaper. You have to plan for the long haul,” he says.

    Working Americans think they need an average of $1.1 million to retire, according to the Schroders 2023 U.S. Retirement Survey. Financial advisers generally recommend that people have 75% to 85% of their preretirement income for each year of their retirement.

    Also read: How never to outlive your money

    3. Build up your cash reserves

    Once you have a budget in place, build up cash reserves to cover six to nine months of basic expenses, such as mortgage, utilities and living expenses, Yeomans says.

    “People are either one of two extremes when it comes to emergency funds — too much cash or not enough,” he says.

    And in the years leading up to retirement, Brandon Robinson, the president and founder of JBR Associates, recommends that you work on eliminating your “bad” debt, such as credit cards or vehicle payments. Having a mortgage, however, is not necessarily a bad thing, since a house is generally an appreciating asset, he says. 

    4. Consider hiring an adviser

    “Most people only retire once,” Collinson says. “Financial advisers have the depth and breadth of experience to help. Many workers have a 401(k), and with that often comes access to financial guidance. Take advantage of that.” 

    She adds: “In today’s turbulent economy, the many people who may have felt comfortable taking a do-it-yourself approach may need help navigating uncharted territory.”

    And make sure you meet with your financial adviser on an annual basis, Robinson adds.

    5. Plan for healthcare and long-term-care needs

    Healthcare is costly, and it can be even more so for retirees. It can cost as much as $5,100 a month for a home health aide, for instance, and an average of about $8,000 a month for a semiprivate room in a nursing home, according to the Genworth Cost of Care Survey. Genworth is a long-term-care insurance company. 

    By another measure, a 65-year-old retiring in 2023 could spend an average of $157,500 on health and medical expenses throughout his or her retirement, according to Fidelity Investments, which tracks retiree healthcare expenses annually. 

    Also think about the long-term costs of help with the activities of daily living, such as bathing, toileting and dressing — assistance that is not covered by Medicare.

    When asked what their plans are for if and when their heath declined, 46% of retirees said they’d rely on family and friends, and 31% said they don’t have any plans or haven’t thought about it, Collinson says. 

    “People don’t want to think about needing someone to bathe and dress them. The cost and potential impact of these topics is enormous,” she says. 

    Collinson says it’s important to learn about long-term care — what’s available and at what price. That can help guide your decisions about long-term care insurance, but options in that market have contracted and costs have risen, putting such services out of reach for many people

    Only 14% of retirees are very confident they could afford long-term care if needed, she says.

    “Many people are under the impression that Medicare covers more long-term care than it actually does,” Collinson says. “And qualifying for Medicaid is extreme. It means that you’re at dire financial means, if not bankrupt. And Medicaid facilities have long waiting lists.”

    6. Get the facts about Medicare 

    Speaking of Medicare, it’s important to learn what the program covers and what it doesn’t.

    “There are so many decision criteria about the type, level and cost of care,” Collinson says. “It behooves everyone to understand the Medicare options best for them and review those plans regularly.”

    Also, it’s critical to plan for Medicare when you’re 65, even if you’re not planning to retire until 67 or 70.

    There’s a seven-month window to enroll in Medicare, which includes the three months before you turn 65, the month of your birthday and the three months after. If you miss that seven-month window and you don’t have health insurance from a large employer, you can face lifetime penalties for late enrollment in Medicare. 

    The first step is to contact the Social Security Administration — not Medicare itself — to start Medicare. And you’ll enroll only yourself — it’s not a family plan.

    If you’re getting Social Security and you enroll in Medicare, your premiums will come directly out of your Social Security check. However, if you’re not getting Social Security yet, you should set up automatic payments for Medicare, because your enrollment can get canceled for nonpayment.

    7. Plan your Social Security strategy

    You need to know when and how to manage your Social Security claiming. The Social Security Administration website is a great starting point, but be sure to talk with a financial adviser or visit your 401(k) plan’s financial resource center to get more information.

    Read: How much does my Social Security benefit increase when I delay filing?

    “Ideally, you want to wait until the full retirement age or age 70, which is the maximum age,” Collinson says. 

    Full retirement age is 67 for those born in 1960 or later.

    “When to take Social Security is a major decision that depends on your health, the health of your spouse, your jobs. Making that decision is a big one. Don’t take it lightly,” Robinson says. 

    Read: Inflation is already racing past next year’s Social Security COLA

    8. Consider downsizing

    “Consider downsizing or moving, but take your time,” Yeomans says. “People make major purchase mistakes in the first 12 to 18 months of retirement. But take your time. Consider renting before pulling that trigger.”

    Aging in place is something about nine out of 10 people want to do, according to a survey from Transamerica Institute and the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, but Collinson says people need to prepare their homes for that.

    You may need wider doorways that can accommodate a wheelchair, as well as chairlifts, grab bars and shower seats. 

    “If your dream home in retirement has lots of stairs, know that you may need to move when stairs become unmanageable,” she says.

    9. Retire to something meaningful

    Once you have the financial and legal aspects taken care of, think about how — and with whom — you want to spend your time in retirement. 

    “Make sure you’re not retiring from something, but instead retiring to something,” Yeomans says. “Men struggle with this the most. The average man has no close friends in their life who aren’t connected to work. And so much of our health in retirement comes from relationships.”

    Now read: In retirement, time is short. Don’t waste it on things you hate.

    People often don’t realize what they’ll lose when they quit working: routine, structure, social interactions, mental stimulation and in some cases physical activity, says Robert Laura, founder of the Retirement Coaches Association.

    People also often don’t take their personality into account when considering retirement.

    “If you’re a Type A personality, you may feel out of sorts with endless time. A lot of people don’t critically question retirement. They think it’s golden. But people often don’t want to retire — they just want to stop doing their primary job,” Laura says. 

    Joe Casey, managing partner of retirement-coaching company Retirement Wisdom, recommends talking to people who are thriving in retirement and learning how they spend their time and energy. 

    “People miss the challenge of working. What’s the new challenge that will help you keep growing? Don’t get too hung up on finding a singular new purpose. Try new things. Volunteer. Try several activities and be open to experimenting,” Casey says. 

    Casey suggests mapping out what a typical day or week will look like in retirement and how you plan to fill those hours. Give yourself some structure by having three things to do every day. That will provide you with a road map of how to spend your time but will also give you flexibility to let the day unfold.

    Laura says the newly retired should set 30-, 60- and 90-day goals to create some structure and have small objectives to work toward.

    “People suffer from choice paralysis — they have all the time in the world and so many options open to them. People go into retirement with vague ideas and don’t know where to start doing something, so they never do it,” Laura says. 

    “Retirement is the longest New Year’s resolution. It’s goals you have and never accomplish unless you’re focused. You don’t get extra motivation or energy in retirement, so you need to focus on what you want to accomplish,” Laura says.

    A sobering statistic may spur you into action: The average retiree watches as much as 47 hours of television a week, according to AgeWave.

    To avoid that, start thinking about and planning for retirement with your partner far ahead of the actual date. Learn each other’s goals and expectations for retirement and compare notes. Some adjustments might be in order.

    “What if one wants to sail around the world and the other wants to see the grandkids every month?” Laura says.

    Casey also recommends taking retirement for a test drive by taking a week off work. “You can get a good sense of retirement in a week trial,” he says. “It will show you how long a day can be.”

    And Collinson says to prioritize physical fitness — but don’t forget about your mental health, too. Stay engaged with other people and avoid isolation. 

    Loneliness is as deadly as smoking up to 15 cigarettes a day and is associated with a greater risk of cardiovascular disease, dementia, stroke, depression, anxiety and premature death, according to a recent advisory from the U.S. Surgeon General.

    The takeaway: Make sure you plan how you’ll carry out your hopes and dreams in retirement to make it all feel worthwhile.

    “What was the reason you worked hard for so many years?” Casey says. “It wasn’t to watch 47 hours of TV each week.”

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  • Subprime car-loan rates are hitting 17%-22%. Should investors be worried?

    Subprime car-loan rates are hitting 17%-22%. Should investors be worried?

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    Many borrowers with subprime credit have been paying 17% to 22% rates on new auto loans this year as the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight takes a toll on lower-income households.

    That borrowing range reflects the average cost, or annual percentage rate, for a loan in recent subprime auto bond deals, according to Fitch Ratings, an increase from last year’s average APR of closer to 14%.

    Higher borrowing costs can mean households need to put more of their income into monthly auto payments, ramping up the risks of late payments, defaults and car repossessions. Those risks, however, have yet to make investors flinch.

    The subprime auto sector already has cleared almost $30 billion of new bond deals this year, according to Finsight, a pace that’s slightly below volumes from the past two years, but still above historical levels since 2008.

    The subprime auto bond market is revved up, even as borrowing rate soar


    Finsight

    “I do believe there has to be a reckoning if rates stay higher for longer,” said Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager on Brandywine Global Asset Management’s global fixed income team.

    Figuring out when the tumult might hit has proven difficult. Instead of slowing, the economy has shown resilience despite the Fed lifting its policy rate to a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%. The central bank also indicated it might need to keep rates higher for some time to fight inflation. Longer-duration bond yields, as a result, have pushed higher, but still hover below 5%.

    Subprime standoff

    Inflation eats away at paychecks, especially those of lower-wage workers, a problem the Fed hopes to solve by keeping borrowing rates elevated. A gauge of inflation out Thursday showed consumer prices were steady at a 3.7% yearly rate in September, above the Fed’s 2% target.

    “This recession has been on everyone’s mind for the past three years,” Chen said. While she thinks the economy will likely contract in the middle of 2024, a lot of damage could be done before that. “The longer rates stay here, the harder the landing.”

    For now, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its next meeting in November. “Fed policy makers are now shifting their focus from ‘how high’ to raise the policy rate to ‘how long’ to maintain it at restrictive levels,” said EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco, in emailed comments.

    Stocks were flat to slightly higher in choppy trade at midday Thursday after the inflation report came in hotter than forecast, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    near unchanged and the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    up 0.2%.

    Past recessions and the burden of higher interest costs typically hit lower-wage workers harder, making subprime credit a canary in the coal mine for the rest of financial markets. Even so, investors in subprime auto bonds have yet to demand significantly more spread, or compensation, to offset potentially higher defaults among these borrowers.

    Related: Subprime auto defaults on path toward 2008 crisis levels, say portfolio managers

    Take the AAA rated 2-year slice of a new bond deal issued in mid-October by one of the subprime auto sector’s biggest players. It priced at a spread of 115 basis points above relevant risk-free rate, up from a spread of 90 basis points on a similar bond issued in August, according to Finsight, which tracks bond data.

    When factoring in Treasury rates, the yield on the bonds bumped up to about 6% and 5.7%, respectively. The shot at higher returns and low delinquencies in subprime auto bonds have likely helped with investor confidence. The rate of subprime auto loans at least 60-day past due in bond deals was about 5% in September, according to Intex, up from historic lows around 2.5% two years ago.

    “I think people still feel confident,” Chen said of subprime auto bonds. When putting a recent bond out on a Wall Street list to gauge its market value, she said bids come in right away.

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  • You just won the Powerball jackpot — what should you do next?

    You just won the Powerball jackpot — what should you do next?

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    One lucky person picked the winning $1.73 billion Powerball number in California. It is a life-changing amount of money for the lucky winner or winners — but not necessarily in a good way. 

    Robert Pagliarini, author of “The Sudden Wealth Solution,” has been guiding lottery winners for decades. And he has seen plenty of people run through their winnings faster than you can say “jackpot!” Or, friends and family (and certainly office lottery pool players) can see their winnings tied up in legal battles for years, as the parties argue over who gets how much. About 70% of lottery winners lose or spend all the money in five years or less, after all. 

    “Money — especially when you’re talking about this level of money — absolutely upends people’s lives,” Pagliarini, the president of Pacifica Wealth Advisors, told MarketWatch. “You should be excited, but you should also be prepared, for sure.” 

    These are his five tips for what to do if you win the lottery or get another windfall.

    Document that the winning ticket is YOURS

    Sign your name on the winning ticket, take a picture of yourself holding the winning ticket — in fact, take a video of yourself holding the signed, winning ticket, for good measure. 

    “The first step is really all about securing the ticket … because whoever has it is the owner,” says Pagliarini. “There’s no record of you having purchased that ticket with those numbers. So having that ticket is everything.” 

    Related: Hoping to win Mega Millions? This woman hit a $112 million Mega Millions jackpot.

    You have to document that this ticket is yours, which is why Pagliarini says legal experts recommend signing it. “I would absolutely sign it myself,” he adds. 

    And then put that ticket in a safe place, like a home safe or lockbox.

    Don’t tell anyone yet!

    You may want to sing the good news from the rooftops that your financial troubles are over. Problem is, everyone else’s troubles aren’t — and Pagliarini warns that, for your own personal safety and peace of mind, it’s better not to let the world know you’ve just become a billionaire overnight — if you can help it. Unfortunately, most states make you disclose that you’ve won.

    “We’re used to seeing people with the big check on TV, which looks pretty cool — but now everybody in the entire world knows that you’re worth $1 billion. And that’s not really the kind of publicity that you want,” says Pagliarini. “You’re going to be hit up for lots of money requests as people come out of the woodwork. And that adds such a huge amount of stress when you’re in a situation that is already stressful.” 

    You generally have 180 days to collect the winnings, and you’re going to have to make some big, life-changing decisions during that time. Staying anonymous, if you can, will give you the space to make those decisions with a clear head. 

    Unfortunately, as noted, most states compel lottery winners to come forward publicly. If you have to reveal yourself and do press interviews, protect your personal information. Some past Powerball winners didn’t answer questions about any meaningful or personal significance associated with the winning numbers that they played, for example, or they refused to share details about their children. One couple simply moved out of their house and refused to speak with the media at all while they settled their affairs.

    “My rule is basically, you tell one family member, and then you immediately try to get professional help,” Pagliarini adds. Which leads us to…. 

    Get a lawyer and a financial adviser

    Bring in the professional help as soon as you can. An attorney can help you decide the best time to claim your lottery prize, and offer more advice on keeping your ticket safe. They can also help navigate your rights and protect your best interests with regards to how much you need to present yourself publicly. And they can also help you manage your safety. 

    Meanwhile, a financial adviser can assess your financial situation and help you decide whether it makes sense to take a lump sum of cash, or to collect your winnings over annual payments. A financial adviser can also help you manage your money so that you can check things off your bucket list without overspending.

    “You know you’ve won, and then typically you have about 180 days to collect the winnings,” says Pagliarini. “So you’ve got to do some serious planning.” You need all the help you can get.  

    Do you take the lump-sum payment or the annuity payment?

    Pagliarini considers staying anonymous as the first big decision a lottery winner makes. The second most important question, however, is how they collect their winnings. Do you want to take a lump sum, or do you want to take the annuity (aka, a payout over time)?

    “This is really the biggest financial decision you’ll ever make in your entire life,” he says. (Granted, it’s one that most of us will never have to make, since the odds of winning the lottery, let alone a jackpot of this size, are infinitesimal.)  

    He notes that most people take the lump-sum payment, and in some circumstances this can be a better decision. But keep in mind that if you win a $1 billion Powerball jackpot, for example, you are not getting $1 billion.

    “They send you about 60-ish percent of whatever the lump sum is,” Pagliarini notes. So for a $1 billion prize, for example, “you would get around $600 million instead of $1 billion,” he said. And after state taxes, depending on where you live, and federal taxes, that jackpot may be closer to $300 million in the end. Whereas, the annuity is given as 30 payments over 29 years, which will come closer to hitting the advertised $1 billion jackpot than lump-sum takers would get. So being patient can pay off in the long run, especially with a bigger prize like this.

    As far as taxes are concerned, Pagliarini still leans toward annuity — especially for a smaller jackpot, like if it was $1 million. That’s because you would get a lump-sum payment of about $600,000, which would put you in the highest federal and state income tax bracket (for single filers anyway) that year — versus taking an extra $30,000 a year for 30 years. “That annuity payment is probably not going to catapult you into the highest tax bracket,” he says. But for a $1 billion-plus jackpot like this, you’re going to be in the highest tax bracket whichever payout you choose, he says.

    But there’s another reason to consider going the annuity route, Pagliarini says — it can save you from yourself. 

    “The biggest advantage of the lump-sum payout is that you get most of the money up front, and then you can do whatever you want with it,” he says, such as pay off debt, invest it, buy a house, etc. “But that actually happens to be the biggest disadvantage of the lump sum,” he continues. And that’s because, if you overspend your winnings and run out of cash with your lump sum, then you are out of luck. But the annuity payments are almost like a do-over each year, he says, because you can learn from your mistakes and spend the next annual windfall more wisely. “I’ve advised most people honestly to take the annuity,” he says. “It just allows you to really make mistakes, but have them not be a total derailment.” 

    If you still can’t make up your mind, he also has a free online quiz to help you decide whether you should take a lump sum or an annuity payment

    Keep it simple when deciding where to put your new money.

    So you’ve secured your ticket, tried to keep it quiet, hired some professional help, and decided how you are going to collect your winnings. Then what do you do with all of this cash? 

    Every financial situation is different, of course, which is where a financial adviser can help you sort out the nuances to make this lottery win a real dream come true for you. But in general, Pagliarini recommends keeping things simple — even considering that this $1 billion jackpot (even whittled down after taxes) would allow you to do basically whatever you wanted to do. 

    “If I were meeting with you, we would sit down and make some serious decisions, and prioritize what you want to do,” he says, “such as paying off debt, and discussing what is on your wish list. Do you want to buy a new house or a second house, or buy your family houses?” He suggests pricing out your wish list together with your adviser to see whether you could afford to do everything you want.

    But you still want money left over to live on. “We want to make sure the money left over is generating enough income so that they could survive on that for as long as they wanted — and particularly in this case, I’m sure generations would be able to survive on this amount of money,” he says. “I would invest in index funds. I wouldn’t get esoteric with limited partnerships and venture capital. Just go for a diversified portfolio, because as soon as you start deviating from ‘simple’ you can really increase your chances of just losing it all.” 

    He notes that because lottery winnings don’t feel “earned,” the prize may not feel like “real” money — which is one of the reasons so many lottery winners don’t manage their newfound wealth well. Again, about 70% of lottery winners lose or spend all that money in five years or less. “If the money doesn’t feel earned or real, you’re going to make decisions with that money that are probably not going to be in your best interest,” he adds. “You’re giving it away more freely, spending more freely, or freely investing in things a lot riskier than you would have done if you had to sweat and earn that money.” 

    So keep it simple. “Don’t think just because you have x-millions of dollars now that you really have to get ‘sophisticated,’” he adds.

    And some bonus advice for office pools

    This is more of an extra, hindsight tip for before you and your co-workers start throwing in a buck apiece for a long-shot bid at a jackpot like this. Pagliarini warns that office pools can get “tricky,” so it’s good to sign a contract setting some ground rules before you all pool together. 

    “There’s been a lot of litigation around office pools, because maybe somebody forgets to play one week, and that’s the week everyone wins. Or someone thought they played this week, but on this particular week they didn’t,” he says. “So loosey-goosey situations can end up in court to battle it out.”

    A much simpler solution to avoid this is to have an office pool contract that spells out who is in this pool, how much they are contributing, and it also determines in advance whether the group will take the lump-sum payment or the annuity payment. 

    “Because the last thing that you want is to win $1 billion or $100 million dollars, and then to be tied up in court for four years,” says Pagliarini. “That’s no fun.”

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  • Dividend stocks are dirt cheap. It may be time to back up the truck.

    Dividend stocks are dirt cheap. It may be time to back up the truck.

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    The stock market always overreacts, and this year it seems as if investors believe dividend stocks have become toxic. But a look at yields on quality dividend stocks relative to the market underlines what may be an excellent opportunity for long-term investors to pursue growth with an income stream that builds up over the years.

    The current environment, in which you can get a yield of more than 5% yield on your cash at a bank or lock in a yield of 4.57% on a10-year U.S. Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    or close to 5% on a 20-year Treasury bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD20Y
    seems to have made some investors forget two things: A stock’s dividend payout can rise over the long term, and so can it is price.

    It is never fun to see your portfolio underperform during a broad market swing. And people have a tendency to prefer jumping on a trend hoping to keep riding it, rather than taking advantage of opportunities brought about by price declines. We may be at such a moment for quality dividend stocks, based on their yields relative to that of the benchmark S&P 500
    SPX.

    Drew Justman of Madison Funds explained during an interview with MarketWatch how he and John Brown, who co-manage the Madison Dividend Income Fund, BHBFX MDMIX and the new Madison Dividend Value ETF
    DIVL,
    use relative dividend yields as part of their screening process for stocks. He said he has never seen such yields, when compared with that of the broad market, during 20 years of work as a securities analyst and portfolio manager.

    Dividend stocks are down

    Before diving in, we can illustrate the market’s current loathing of dividend stocks by comparing the performance of the Schwab U.S. Equity ETF
    SCHD,
    which tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, with that of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY.
    Let’s look at a total return chart (with dividends reinvested) starting at the end of 2021, since the Federal Reserve started its cycle of interest rate increases in March 2022:


    FactSet

    The Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index is made up of “high-dividend-yielding stocks in the U.S. with a record of consistently paying dividends, selected for fundamental strength relative to their peers, based on financial ratios,” according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

    The end results for the two ETFs from the end of 2021 through Tuesday are similar. But you can see how the performance pattern has been different, with the dividend stocks holding up well during the stock market’s reaction to the Fed’s move last year, but trailing the market’s recovery as yields on CDs and bonds have become so much more attractive this year. Let’s break down the performance since the end of 2021, this time bringing in the Madison Dividend Income Fund’s Class Y and Class I shares:

    Fund

    2023 return

    2022 return

    Return since the end of 2021

    SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

    14.9%

    -18.2%

    -6.0%

    Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF

    -3.8%

    -3.2%

    -6.9%

    Madison Dividend Income Fund – Class Y

    -4.7%

    -5.4%

    -9.9%

    Madison Dividend Income Fund – Class I

    -4.7%

    -5.3%

    -9.7%

    Source: FactSet

    Dividend stocks held up well during 2022, as the S&P 500 fell more than 18%. But they have been left behind during this year’s rally.

    The Madison Dividend Income Fund was established in 1986. The Class Y shares have annual expenses of 0.91% of assets under management and are rated three stars (out of five) within Morningstar’s “Large Value” fund category. The Class I shares have only been available since 2020. They have a lower expense ratio of 0.81% and are distributed through investment advisers or through platforms such as Schwab, which charges a $50 fee to buy Class I shares.

    The opportunity — high relative yields

    The Madison Dividend Income Fund holds 40 stocks. Justman explained that when he and Brown select stocks for the fund their investible universe begins with the components of the Russell 1000 Index
    RUT,
    which is made up of the largest 1,000 companies by market capitalization listed on U.S. exchanges. Their first cut narrows the list to about 225 stocks with dividend yields of at least 1.1 times that of the index.

    The Madison team calculates a stock’s relative dividend yield by dividing its yield by that of the S&P 500. Let’s do that for the Schwab U.S. Equity ETF
    SCHD
    (because it tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index) to illustrate the opportunity that Justman highlighted:

    Index or ETF

    Dividend yield

    5-year Avg. yield 

    10-year Avg. yield 

    15-year Avg. yield 

    Relative yield

    5-year Avg. relative yield 

    10-year Avg. relative yield 

    15-year Avg. relative yield 

    Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF

    3.99%

    3.41%

    3.20%

    3.16%

    2.6

    2.1

    1.8

    1.6

    S&P 500

    1.55%

    1.62%

    1.79%

    1.92%

    Source: FactSet

    The Schwab U.S. Equity ETF’s relative yield is 2.6 — that is, its dividend yield is 2.6 times that of the S&P 500, which is much higher than the long-term averages going back 15 years. If we went back 20 years, the average relative yield would be 1.7.

    Examples of high-quality stocks with high relative dividend yields

    After narrowing down the Russell 1000 to about 225 stocks with relative dividend yields of at least 1.1, Justman and Brown cut further to about 80 companies with a long history of raising dividends and with strong balance sheets, before moving further through a deeper analysis to arrive at a portfolio of about 40 stocks.

    When asked about oil companies and others that pay fixed quarterly dividends plus variable dividends, he said, “We try to reach out to the company and get an estimate of special dividends and try to factor that in.” Two examples of companies held by the fund that pay variable dividends are ConocoPhillips
    COP,
    -0.29%

    and EOG Resources Inc.
    EOG,
    +0.52%
    .

    Since the balance-sheet requirement is subjective “almost all fund holdings are investment-grade rated,” Justman said. That refers to credit ratings by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service or Fitch Ratings. He went further, saying about 80% of the fund’s holdings were rated “A-minus or better.” BBB- is the lowest investment-grade rating from S&P. Fidelity breaks down the credit agencies’ ratings hierarchy.

    Justman named nine stocks held by the fund as good examples of quality companies with high relative yields to the S&P 500:

    Company

    Ticker

    Dividend yield

    Relative yield

    2023 return

    2022 return

    Return since the end of 2021

    CME Group Inc. Class A

    CME,
    +0.47%
    2.04%

    1.3

    31%

    -23%

    1%

    Home Depot, Inc.

    HD,
    -0.39%
    2.79%

    1.8

    -3%

    -22%

    -25%

    Lowe’s Cos., Inc.

    LOW,
    +0.27%
    2.17%

    1.4

    3%

    -21%

    -19%

    Morgan Stanley

    MS,
    -1.54%
    4.24%

    2.7

    -3%

    -10%

    -13%

    U.S. Bancorp

    USB,
    -0.25%
    5.89%

    3.8

    -22%

    -19%

    -37%

    Medtronic PLC

    MDT,
    -4.32%
    3.62%

    2.3

    1%

    -23%

    -22%

    Texas Instruments Inc.

    TXN,
    -0.21%
    3.30%

    2.1

    -3%

    -10%

    -12%

    United Parcel Service Inc. Class B

    UPS,
    -0.16%
    4.17%

    2.7

    -8%

    -16%

    -23%

    Union Pacific Corp.

    UNP,
    +1.52%
    2.52%

    1.6

    2%

    -16%

    -15%

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company, fund or index.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Now let’s see how these companies have grown their dividend payouts over the past five years. Leaving the companies in the same order, here are compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for dividends.

    Before showing this next set of data, let’s work through one example among the nine stocks:

    • If you had purchased shares of Home Depot Inc.
      HD,
      -0.39%

      five years ago, you would have paid $193.70 a share if you went in at the close on Oct. 10, 2018. At that time, the company’s quarterly dividend was $1.03 cents a share, for an annual dividend rate of $4.12, which made for a then-current yield of 2.13%.

    • If you had held your shares of Home Depot for five years through Tuesday, your quarterly dividend would have increased to $2.09 a share, for a current annual payout of $8.36. The company’s dividend has increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% over the past five years. In comparison, the S&P 500’s weighted dividend rate has increased at a CAGR of 6.24% over the past five years, according to FactSet.

    • That annual payout rate of $8.36 would make for a current dividend yield of 2.79% for a new investor who went in at Tuesday’s closing price of $299.22. But if you had not reinvested, the dividend yield on your five-year-old shares (based on what you would have paid for them) would be 4.32%. And your share price would have risen 54%. And if you had reinvested your dividends, your total return for the five years would have been 75%, slightly ahead of the 74% return for the S&P 500 SPX during that period.

    Home Depot hasn’t been the best dividend grower among the nine stocks named by Justman, but it is a good example of how an investor can build income over the long term, while also enjoying capital appreciation.

    Here’s the dividend CAGR comparison for the nine stocks:

    Company

    Ticker

    Five-year dividend CAGR

    Dividend yield on shares purchased five years ago

    Dividend yield five years ago

    Current dividend yield

    Five-year price change

    Five-year total return

    CME Group Inc. Class A

    CME,
    +0.47%
    9.46%

    2.44%

    1.55%

    2.04%

    20%

    42%

    Home Depot Inc.

    HD,
    -0.39%
    15.20%

    4.32%

    2.13%

    2.79%

    54%

    75%

    Lowe’s Cos, Inc.

    LOW,
    +0.27%
    18.04%

    4.14%

    1.81%

    2.17%

    91%

    109%

    Morgan Stanley

    MS,
    -1.54%
    23.16%

    7.62%

    2.69%

    4.24%

    80%

    108%

    U.S. Bancorp

    USB,
    -0.25%
    5.34%

    3.60%

    2.78%

    5.89%

    -39%

    -26%

    Medtronic PLC

    MDT,
    -4.32%
    6.65%

    2.90%

    2.10%

    3.62%

    -20%

    -9%

    Texas Instruments Inc.

    TXN,
    -0.21%
    11.04%

    5.24%

    3.10%

    3.30%

    59%

    82%

    United Parcel Service Inc. Class B

    UPS,
    -0.16%
    12.23%

    5.56%

    3.12%

    4.17%

    33%

    56%

    Union Pacific Corp.

    UNP,
    +1.52%
    10.20%

    3.37%

    2.07%

    2.52%

    34%

    49%

    Source: FactSet

    This isn’t to say that Justman and Brown have held all of these stocks over the past five years. In fact, Lowe’s Cos.
    LOW,
    +0.27%

    was added to the portfolio this year, as was United Parcel Service Inc.
    UPS,
    -0.16%
    .
    But for most of these companies, dividends have compounded at relatively high rates.

    When asked to name an example of a stock the fund had sold, Justman said he and Brown decided to part ways with Verizon Communications Inc.
    VZ,
    -0.94%

    last year, “as we became concerned about its fundamental competitive position in its industry.”

    Summing up the scene for dividend stocks, Justman said, “It seems this year the market is treating dividend stocks as fixed-income instruments. We think that is a short-term issue and that this is a great opportunity.”

    Don’t miss: How to tell if it is worth avoiding taxes with a municipal-bond ETF

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  • Birkenstock’s stock falls  10% in trading debut after IPO priced at lower end of range

    Birkenstock’s stock falls 10% in trading debut after IPO priced at lower end of range

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    Iconic German sandal maker Birkenstock Holdings Ltd.’s stock fell 10% out of the gate in its trading debut Wednesday, signaling that investors remain cautious about new deals and the casual-footwear market remains competitive.

    The company’s initial public offering priced at $46 a share late Tuesday, a bit shy of the midpoint of its expected range. The company
    BIRK,
    -11.63%

    is trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker “BIRK.” Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley were the lead underwriters on the deal.

    The deal was expected to prove the latest test for the IPO market, which recently saw three key deals perform strongly on their first day of trade, only to fall back in subsequent sessions.

    Chip maker Arm Holdings Ltd.
    ARM,
    -1.09%

    ; Klaviyo 
    KVYO,
    -3.11%

    a digital marketing company; and Instacart, which trades as Maplebear Inc. 
    CART,
    -7.04%

    ; all enjoyed strong gains on their first day of trade but pared those in the following sessions. Instacart was quoted at $25.50 on Wednesday, well below its issue price of $30.

    Birkenstock clearly has its fans, as its customers are brand loyal, with 70% of existing U.S. consumers, for example, purchasing at least two pairs of its shoes, according to its filing documents.

    A survey found 86% of recent purchasers said they wanted to buy again, while 40% said they did not even consider another brand while buying.

    But as Kyle Rodda, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com, said the Birkenstock deal was to be a good measure of broader market sentiment and sentiment toward consumer-sensitive stocks.

    “It might tell us, too, whether cashed-up millennials like to buy the stocks of products they commonly find on the bottom shelf of their wardrobes,” he said in emailed comments.

    The valuation of around $8.6 billion also looks rich, he said. Based on the company’s latest revenue release, the stock’s price-to-sales ratio is above 6, “which is at the higher end of comparable consumer discretionary companies on Wall Street.

    “In a higher interest rate environment, these multiples may be hard to sustain in the short term, especially if consumer spending slows as expected next year as interest rate hikes bite households,” Rodda said.

    David Trainer, Chief Executive of independent equity research company New Constructs, said ahead of the deal that the valuation was far too high, noting that it was higher than peers such as Skechers USA Inc. 
    SKX,
    -0.67%
    ,
     Crocs Inc.
    CROX,
    -0.12%

     and Steve Madden Ltd. 
    SHOO,
    +0.60%
    .

    “Even more shockingly, the only footwear companies with a larger market cap are Nike Inc. 
    NKE,
    +0.80%

     and Deckers Outdoor 
    DECK,
    -0.07%
    ,
    ” he said, referring to the maker of Uggs. 

    “While Birkenstock is profitable, we think it is fair to say that the $8.7 billion valuation mark is too high, especially for a company that was valued at just $4.3 billion in early 2021. Not a whole lot has changed since then,” Trainer said in a report.

    For more, see: Birkenstock is going public: 5 things to know about the iconic German sandal maker’s IPO designs

    Trainer estimated that Birkenstock would need to generate more than $3.8 billion in annual revenue to justify its valuation, which is more than three times the $1.24 billion chalked up for all of 2022, according to its filing documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    “We don’t doubt that Birkenstock has strong brand equity and produces stylish sandals, but there is really no reason for this company to be public,” said Trainer. “We don’t think investors should expect to make any money by buying this IPO.”

    The Renaissance IPO exchange-traded fund
    IPO
    has gained 29% in the year to date, while the S&P 500
    SPX
    has gained 13%.

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  • U.S. stocks post 3-session climb as bond yields, oil retreat

    U.S. stocks post 3-session climb as bond yields, oil retreat

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    U.S. stocks booked a 3-session win streak Tuesday as oil prices and bond yields retreated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.40%

    climbed about 134 points, or 0.4%, ending near 33,739, according to preliminary FactSet data. That was the longest streak of straight wins for the blue-chip index in a month, and the best three days of gains since late August, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.52%

    advanced 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    +0.58%

    gained 0.6%. It was the third session in a row of gains for all three indexes. The brighter backdrop for stock market came as oil prices
    CL00,
    -0.69%

    and bond yields
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.663%

    retreated and after Raphael Bostic, head of the Atlanta Fed, said he didn’t think additional rate hikes were needed to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% annual target, but also that he still sees rates staying high for a “long time.”

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