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Tag: risk

  • Spending Recklessly in Good Times Is a Recipe for Disaster in Bad Times

    Spending Recklessly in Good Times Is a Recipe for Disaster in Bad Times

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    Some policy experts who, over the last few decades, saw little need for serious fiscal austerity because the government could borrow at low interest rates are now changing their tune. Their argument is that with rates now rising and the government’s interest payments set to become extremely expensive, it’s time to adjust. While I suppose that’s progress, they fail to see that the past calls for austerity were attempts to avoid precisely what’s happening today.

    Indeed, the need for fiscal responsibility was never based on an inability to afford extra debt back then. It was because the moment was destined to arrive when adjustments became necessary, and rising indebtedness ensured that these changes would become more painful.

    Let me explain. Consider two well-respected economists and former high-ranking government officials, Lawrence Summers and Jason Furman, who previously suggested that in the aftermath of the Great Recession, concerns expressed by “deficit fundamentalists” (like me) were excessive, and that some of the efforts we championed to reduce the debt were unnecessary.

    Despite the growing national debt, interest rates remained historically low, meaning the cost of servicing it was not particularly burdensome. This, they argued, made calls to control the debt out of touch. Better yet, those low rates were said to present an opportunity to “invest” in productive projects like infrastructure and education. This spending, in turn, would fuel productivity and raise economic growth, helping offset the future cost of the debt.

    Now, unlike some who subscribe to similar ideas, Summers and Furman aren’t extremists. They acknowledged that debt cannot accumulate indefinitely. But they mocked calls for austerity measures back in the 2010s as premature, while encouraging government investments paid for with debt accumulation.

    Undoubtedly, interest rates were low. As Summers and Furman highlighted in a 2019 paper, “in 2000, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast that by 2010, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio would be six percent. The same ten-year forecast in 2018 put the figure for 2028 at 105 percent. Real interest rates on ten-year government bonds, meanwhile, fell from 4.3 percent in 2000 to an average of 0.8 percent last year.”

    This thinking has problems. First, it assumes government officials have the right incentives and knowledge—in addition to a comparative advantage over the profit-driven private sector—to “invest” productively. Not all government spending qualifies as productive investment, especially when most comes in the form of transferring wealth from one group to another and the rest is driven largely by interest group politics rather than by sound cost benefit analysis.

    Second, 10-year projections are really unreliable. Later, in 2008, CBO projected that in 2018, public debt would be 22.6 percent of GDP. It turned out to be 78 percent. Then, in 2018, CBO projected that in 2028, debt would be 96 percent of GDP. It’s now projected to be 108 percent. Meanwhile, CBO projections for interest rates since the Great Recession have been higher than what they wound up being. Starting last year, that flipped, and actual rates are much higher than the projection. That gap between projected rates and actual rates is likely to continue. It could expand.

    Overestimating interest rates means the federal government pays less than projected. Yay. An underestimation, however, means higher interest payments, more borrowing, and more debt than expected. Add to this misfortune an underestimation of debt levels and you quickly see a lot of red ink.

    That’s why betting on low interest rates to argue that we should not worry about a growing debt burden is risky. Interest rates are influenced by a variety of factors and can rise fast. In fact, back in 2021, many continued to wrongfully argue that rates would not go up. Is it crazy, then, to believe we would be in a better position to face the rate hikes today if the government had better controlled its debt over the last 10 or 20 years?

    Finally, anyone looking at CBO budget forecasts could always see that the disconnect between government spending and revenue was growing. Even assuming no significant rises in interest rates, as well as no emergencies requiring more borrowing and no new congressional or presidential spending programs—all things that have come to pass—official debt projections never looked good. Why add more debt to that?

    In the end, the risks associated with high levels of debt were never about what we could afford while rates were low. It was always about understanding that when change inevitably comes, we can better address the challenge if we are not in over our heads.

    COPYRIGHT 2023 CREATORS.COM.

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    Veronique de Rugy

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  • Strongest Santa Ana winds of the season forecast to increase fire risk, power outages across SoCal

    Strongest Santa Ana winds of the season forecast to increase fire risk, power outages across SoCal

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    The strongest Santa Ana wind event of the season is forecast to increase the risk of wildfire danger across Southern California, as well as the potential for power shutoffs.

    Fire weather conditions are forecast from late Saturday through Monday night due to Santa Ana winds along with low humidity, according to the National Weather Service. A fire weather watch was issued for Los Angeles and Ventura counties, warning of dry conditions in the region and widespread single-digit humidity. The strongest winds are expected Sunday, when gusts of 35-50 mph will be common, with isolated gusts of up to 60 mph in mountain and foothill locations.

    Dry and breezy offshore winds will last into Tuesday, which could extend critical fire weather conditions across L.A.

    In Northern California, the weather service also issued a red flag warning for portions of the Bay Area for Saturday and Sunday, starting earlier for elevations above 1,000 feet. Gusty offshore winds and relative low humidity will increase critical fire weather conditions for the North Bay, East Bay, Santa Clara hills and mountains and the San Mateo coast.

    Southern California Edison’s team notified customers that the high winds and dry vegetation could increase the possibility of Public Safety Power Shutoffs in order to keep communities safe from fires that are ignited by downed power lines.

    “We know that shutoffs significantly affect our customer’s daily lives and create hardships for them,” officials said in the announcement. “We’re working to limit the scope of possible shutoffs to only the areas that are facing the highest threat of wildfire and we are taking actions to keep our customers informed.”

    The utility has notified 150,240 customers that they could be subject to shutoffs from Sunday until Tuesday. If a shutoff is necessary, the utility will try to restore powers to customers as soon as it’s deemed safe and after crews have inspected power lines.

    Santa Anas are easterly winds that develop due to high pressure over the Great Basin area in Utah and Nevada and pass into Southern California. They warm up and accelerate as they pass over the mountains, resulting in strong gusts through the mountain and valley regions.

    Californians can keep their power on during the blackouts by buying a backup generator, installing solar panels or powering their homes with electric vehicles.

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    Summer Lin

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  • Debunking 4 Common Myths About Being a Bold Business Leader | Entrepreneur

    Debunking 4 Common Myths About Being a Bold Business Leader | Entrepreneur

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    In the realm of business, few terms capture the imagination quite like “boldness.” Entrepreneurs and established business leaders alike are often told that being bold is the ticket to success. But what does it really mean to be bold in the world of business? It’s easy to mistake boldness for mere risk-taking or to believe it’s reserved for the startup world, where every move can make or break a company. However, true boldness is more nuanced, encompassing decision-making, innovation, speed, inherent traits and collaboration.

    Before diving deeper into the intricacies of business strategies, it’s essential to dispel some myths about boldness. In this article, we’ll dissect the concept, aiming for a clearer understanding of what it truly means to be bold and how it can be harnessed effectively in any business environment. True leadership recognizes that audacity is as much about preparation as it is about action.

    Related: The Benefits of Bold Leadership and How Leaders Can Develop a Bold Mindset

    1. Dissecting boldness and risk

    The world often romanticizes the idea of the “fearless” entrepreneur who takes enormous risks and subsequently reaps enormous rewards. This narrative pushes the belief that boldness and high risk are synonymous. However, genuine boldness in business decisions is not about throwing caution to the wind. Instead, it’s about being assertive and confident in one’s decisions, especially when those decisions are rooted in solid data, careful analysis and keen insight. Truly bold moves are often the product of meticulous planning, understanding potential outcomes and calculating potential setbacks.

    They strike a balance between courage and caution. Embracing and understanding fear, rather than denying it, is the cornerstone of truly bold actions in business. Daring decisions are made with a vision, fueled by insight and backed by informed confidence. The difference between recklessness and boldness is the depth of knowledge and the clarity of vision.

    In movies and stories, the brave businessperson is often shown as someone who jumps into situations without thinking too much and then finds success because of that bravery. It’s like they’re suggesting that if you’re bold, you don’t need to plan or think things through. But in real life, being bold in business doesn’t mean acting without thinking. Real boldness is like a tightrope walker who practices for hours, ensuring each step is precise. They might seem fearless to us, but they have prepared and know exactly what they’re doing. Similarly, when a business leader makes a bold move, it’s after lots of research, advice from experts and careful thought about the pros and cons. They aren’t just hoping for the best, they have planned for success.

    2. The startup misconception

    A closely related misconception is that only startups, with their agile nature, are the ones making these so-called “bold” moves. The belief is that established companies, with their foundations and reputations, have more at stake and thus are more conservative in their approach. However, this couldn’t be further from the truth. Boldness is not restricted by the age or size of a company. In fact, for many established companies, the pursuit of innovation and the courage to adapt to changing market dynamics are what keep them relevant and competitive. They too need bold strategies to navigate the ever-evolving business landscape. It’s not about the age of the company, but the mindset with which it operates.

    When we think of established businesses, images of towering skyscrapers, legacy brands and decades-old institutions might come to mind. It’s easy to assume that these titans of industry, having weathered numerous storms, would adopt a “play it safe” mantra. After all, they have reputations to maintain and legacies to protect. However, this mindset can be a trap. In reality, regardless of a company’s stature or age, stagnation is one of the most significant threats. The business world is dynamic, and resting on past laurels can quickly render a company obsolete. Just as startups need to innovate to break into the market, established companies need to continuously evolve to stay in it. Take Netflix, for instance. Once a simple DVD rental service, it pivoted and embraced the world of online streaming, transforming into a global entertainment behemoth.

    Related: How to Develop Bold, Assertive Self-Confidence — Your Power Tool for Success in Life and Business

    3. Speed doesn’t always equal boldness

    Another common misconception in the business world equates boldness with speed. There’s a prevailing thought that quick decisions, rapid pivots and immediate actions are markers of a bold entrepreneur or a daring company. While agility and adaptability are indeed valuable traits, especially in a fast-paced market, boldness isn’t merely about velocity. At its core, boldness is about impact. Some decisions, even if they’re groundbreaking or game-changing, require careful contemplation, research and planning. The true measure of a bold move isn’t how quickly it’s made, but how profoundly it affects its intended target, whether that’s a company’s internal culture, its market position or the industry at large.

    This perspective arises from the idea that swift action is indicative of confidence, that it showcases a leader’s ability to adapt quickly to evolving circumstances. Boldness isn’t always about the speed of a decision, but its depth and impact. Bold decisions are made with a vision, fueled by insight and backed by informed confidence. The boldest moves are often the result of a meticulous play between intuition and information. Audacity is not just about momentum, but direction — not just about speed, but destination.

    Many transformative actions in business history resulted from extensive contemplation and patience. Bold leaders understand that some choices need time to be refined, their implications fully understood and their potential impact thoroughly assessed. A decision’s true boldness is defined by its lasting effects on an organization or industry, not merely the speed at which it was made.

    4. Bold leadership and the power of collaboration

    There’s an age-old image of the bold leader, a solitary figure, paving their unique path, guided solely by their instincts. Such tales have perpetuated the myth that to be bold, a leader must go it alone. In reality, some of the most groundbreaking decisions arise from collaboration and a collective effort to address the biggest challenges. Bold leadership often entails recognizing the limits of one’s knowledge and expertise and being open to collaboration above competition for the greater good. True boldness in business recognizes that in unity, there is innovation, and in collaboration, there is strength.

    The most successful leaders are those who understand the value of diverse perspectives, who aren’t afraid to seek advice and who realize the strength in strategic partnerships. They know that being bold can sometimes mean pooling resources, knowledge and expertise. In today’s interconnected business landscape, collaboration isn’t just beneficial, it is often essential for groundbreaking innovations and strategies. Being truly bold means acknowledging that the collective, at times, may be able to see farther than the individual.

    As the business world evolves, our understanding of concepts like boldness must also transform. True boldness in business is multifaceted, encompassing not just risk-taking, but strategic planning, continuous learning and effective collaboration. By challenging traditional notions and embracing a more nuanced view, leaders can harness genuine boldness to drive their businesses forward in meaningful and impactful ways. Let’s get #bold!

    Related: The Boldness of Business: 3 Rare Ways to Turn Courage Into Success

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    Leigh Burgess

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  • Austin Pets Alive! | A Picture of Transport Success: Tonto

    Austin Pets Alive! | A Picture of Transport Success: Tonto

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    Aug 29, 2023

    For 10 months, Tonto sat overlooked in a crowded shelter in an isolated part of West Texas, where the human population counts at 9,000 and the nearest vet is 90 miles away.  The longer he sat, and the more crowded the shelter got and the greater risk there was of Tonto facing euthanasia.  But Tonto’s fate changed when APA!’s transport team, the Texas shelter, and Underground Dog, a local rescue, teamed up.

    Together we got Tonto on a flight up to Boise Bully Rescue in Boise, Idaho, where Tonto was quickly adopted by a wonderful family. Tonto is one of 2,460 pets whose lives were saved through our transport program in 2022. Fun fact: Tonto’s tongue permanently sticks out for a constant “blep” look

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  • Austin Pets Alive! | A Picture of Transport Success: Loki

    Austin Pets Alive! | A Picture of Transport Success: Loki

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    Aug 18, 2023

    Loki spent months at an under-resourced shelter in Texas. a The brown-eyed, sweet pup had lots of energy and love to give but the crowded shelter did not provide the opportunity for him to find a home.  As time passed, more dogs entered the facility, which increased the risk that Loki might be moved to a euthanasia list. 

    We knew there was a family out there that would be a perfect match for Loki and we were determined to create an opportunity for this heartfelt connection to occur.We sent word out about Loki to our Transport Program destination partners, and eventually a potential placement came through in Toronto. We worked with our destination rescue partners until a placement came through, with a shelter in Toronto—then we got Loki onto a ride to safety up north. 

    Loki’s adopters sent us an update soon after that. They said he was a perfect gentleman in their home, and “an absolute angel.” 

    “He’s made himself at home,” his family told us. “We are so blessed and thankful.” 

    Loki loves to cuddle, and his family shared photos of him doing just that—snuggling up on the couch, in his new home, with his very own people, looking for all the world like that’s exactly where he was always meant to be.

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  • You can invest in market winners and still lose big. Here’s how to avoid the hit.

    You can invest in market winners and still lose big. Here’s how to avoid the hit.

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    Investors should think twice before picking an actively managed mutual fund according to its style category. By “style category,” I’m referring to the widely used method of grouping mutual funds according to the market-cap of the stocks they invest in and where those stocks stand on the spectrum of growth-to-value.

    This matrix traces to groundbreaking research in 1992 by University of Chicago professor Eugene Fama and Dartmouth College professor Ken French, and has since been popularized by investment researcher Morningstar in the form of its well-known style box.

    In urging you to think twice before picking a fund based on this matrix, I’m not questioning the existence of important distinctions between the various styles. Fama and French’s research convincingly showed that there are systematic differences between them. My point is that there also are huge differences within each style as well. You can pick a style that outperforms all others on Wall Street and still lose a lot of money, just as you can pick the worst-performing style and turn a huge profit.

    This points to the two types of risk you face when picking an actively managed fund. You have the risk associated with the fund’s style (category risk) and you also have the risk associated with the particular stocks that the fund’s manager selects (so-called idiosyncratic risk). Idiosyncratic risk often overwhelms category risk, especially over shorter periods.

    To illustrate, consider the midcap-growth style. As judged by the Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth ETF
    VOT,
    this style produced a 28.8% loss in 2022. Yet, according to Morningstar Direct, the best-performing actively managed midcap-growth fund last year produced a gain of 39.5%, while the worst performer lost 67.0%.

    This best-versus-worst performance spread of over 100 percentage points is illustrated in the accompanying chart. Notice that the comparable spread was almost as wide for many of the other styles as well. Though I haven’t done the research to compare 2022’s spreads with those of other calendar years, I have no reason to expect that they on average were any lower.

    “ The only way to eliminate idiosyncratic risk when investing in particular styles is to invest in an index fund.”

    The only way to eliminate idiosyncratic risk when investing in particular styles is to invest in an index fund benchmarked to the style in question. If you are enamored of a particular fund manager and willing to bet he will significantly outperform the category average, just know that you also incur the not-significant idiosyncratic risk that the fund will lag by a large amount.

    The bottom line? By investing in an actively managed fund in a style category, you will be incurring the risk not only of that category itself but also the not-insignificant idiosyncratic risk of that particular fund. Fasten your seatbelt if that’s the path you take.

    Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com

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  • Control and Diversification: New Study from PolyU and UG Uncovers Corporate Strategies Amidst Rising Geopolitical Risk – World News Report – Medical Marijuana Program Connection

    Control and Diversification: New Study from PolyU and UG Uncovers Corporate Strategies Amidst Rising Geopolitical Risk – World News Report – Medical Marijuana Program Connection

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    HONG KONG, CHINA, August 6, 2023/EINPresswire.com/ — In a world where escalating geopolitical uncertainty significantly challenges global supply chains, a recent study from the Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) and the University of Groningen (UG) offers critical insights into how businesses navigate political risks. The research provides an in-depth exploration of the outsourcing and diversification strategies businesses employ when confronted with mounting political risks.

    This study draws from a unique dataset of US-listed manufacturers and maps the data against the backdrop of an evolving geopolitical landscape. The findings reveal that firms perceiving a higher level of political risk are more likely to adopt vertical integration and product diversification strategies.

    Dr. Di Fan, the lead researcher of the study from PolyU, explains, “Our research offers significant insights into how businesses respond to firm-specific political risk. Amid these turbulent times, the strategic choices businesses make can determine their survival and growth. We discovered that in the face of political risk, firms are more inclined to exert control over their supply chains through vertical integration. This control provides firms with the responsiveness required to mitigate the impacts of adverse geopolitical events and supply disruptions.”

    Interestingly, while the study found that increased political risk prompts firms to pursue greater…

    Original Author Link click here to read complete story..

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    MMP News Author

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  • Podcast: AI for risk mitigation | Bank Automation News

    Podcast: AI for risk mitigation | Bank Automation News

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    John Brisco, chief executive of software as a service platform Coherent, tells Bank Automation News that there is rising pressure in the financial services industry in this episode of “The Buzz” podcast, noting that technology, including generative AI, can play a role in monitoring that risk.

    Generative AI “ultimately, is going to act as an accelerator for unlocking lots of internal and external data, connecting it together in order to provide actionable insights, which can provide monetary and competitive advantage,” he said.

    As AI works to mitigate risk, regulatory scrutiny, too, will be heightened, he said, noting that an increased focus from regulators will help banks “avoid challenges and mistakes that have happened in the last few months.”

    Listen as Brisco discusses data model risk and how AI will play a role in risk mitigation at financial institutions.

    The following is a transcript generated by AI technology that has been lightly edited but still contains errors.

    Whitney McDonald 0:03
    Hello and welcome to the buzz of bank automation news podcast. My name is Whitney McDonald, and I’m the deputy editor of bank automation news. Joining me today is John Brisco, Chief Executive of software as a service company coherent. He’s here to discuss data risk model, and how AI will play a role in risk mitigation and future operational processes at banks.John Brisco 0:24
    Fantastic. My name is John Brisco, I’m the CEO and founder of coherent is the world’s leading spreadsheet to codes, enterprise b2b SaaS business, we were created five years ago, basically now what a wave presents with over 11 different locations. And we work with over 120 financial services organizations, banks, insurers, asset managers across the globe.

    Whitney McDonald 0:52
    Great, thank you. Now, if you could talk through just the importance of managing data model risk, especially post SBB first republic bank Signature Bank, we all know what happened in the past couple of months, maybe just talking through that importance and where cohering can fit in?

    John Brisco 1:13
    Well, I think just in general, given obviously, we’ve been in a situation for the last two years where there’s been increased market volatility across the globe via a variety of macro events. So outside our control, obviously, like the war and, and Ukraine, but then a number which have been created by just rising sort of financial sort of pressures, obviously, interest rates, as well as fears of recession, particularly in North America has meant that there’s been an incredible sort of intensity and focus on the stability and accuracy of how banks are really started sort of forecasting their risk and stress appetite across the whole model portfolio. And I think this has been something which regulators have been starting to really focus on heavily, to understand how just how well understood as the sort of risk sort of simulations and scenarios across the variety of models, which exist across different parts of a financial institution. And I think, obviously, what’s happened with the likes of SBB. And some some other notable sort of challenges is that, quite frankly, there appears to be gaps and understanding the real time impacts of of various sort of model complexities as well as model simulations as well as model at what I call synergies where there’s models talking to other models. And I believe that there’s obviously going to be an increasing focus on regulators to try and make sure that this becomes much more powerful, much more governed within organizations, to hopefully avoid some of the challenges and mistakes which have happened over over the last couple of months and, and even arguably, in the past before it as well.

    Whitney McDonald 3:03
    So within the management and governance and ensuring that you are monitoring your risk, where can technology fit in to be sure that you are monitoring your risk appetite, and hopefully avoiding this type of turbulence within your own institution.

    John Brisco 3:22
    Look, I think the reality is, is an incredible amount of data tools and data modeling, which happens across financial institutions, across every continent, and a variety of different sort of programming languages, as well as tools are used. So clearly, there’s some more of the sophisticated programming languages, like the likes of Python, or R, which get used quite heavily across financial institutions. But quite frankly, they’re most most utilized to what I think everyone can still recognize is this is the usage of spreadsheets, which exists in across nearly every part of the financial institution value chain. And that’s weird. Obviously, a lot of the model logic model calculations and model sort of connectivity really sort of rests. And I think regulators are wanting to have a much heavier focus. Now you’re on not only the creation of tools, and making sure that there’s obviously improved ownership around who can get access to those tools. But how are you doing improve testing and governance, as well as updating of those sort of models and logics ongoing moving forward? And I think that’s where the technology that is really be looked at and financial institutions is focusing on essentially not just thinking about creation of models, but actually the end to end governance auditability as well as ensuring accuracy of data flowing through those models are so clearly coherent as a business which is playing into that space. We’re bringing a unique capability around the whole spreadsheet management capability of model risk management. But we’re one over C B, these other sort of tools which complement each other to help solve these problems with financial institutions have.

    Whitney McDonald 5:11
    Great now when talking through technology and what role it can play, of course, right now in the time that we’re in artificial intelligence is definitely a buzzword that we keep hearing. Can you talk through how AI can aid in risk mitigation?

    John Brisco 5:29
    I think there’s a really interesting question when you in terms of generated PII, obviously, there’s incredible hype and, obviously, excitement around the potential of the the intelligence as well as new opportunities. That sort of capability is going to pervade, ultimately is going to act as an accelerator for unlocking lots of internal and external data connecting it together in order to provide actionable sort of insights, which can provide monetary and competitive advantage. But at the same time, I think there’s going to be a heavy focus from regulators and senior management teams of how can we actually be sure that the kind of recommendations or insights provided by generated VI, as ACC is actually accurate, has been compiled in the right way, and can be justifiably sort of, essentially executed with auditability, to regulators and external parties when decisions are being made. So what I think you’ll see is, there’s going to be a kind of unique sort of paradigm of different types of capabilities and technologies created, in order to cater for that one side, you’re going to have the kind of real sort of model accelerator type technologies, which are going to be helping power models more powerfully, bring in different data sources to accelerate learnings, in order to conserve, obviously, really sort of expand the modeling potential of financial services institution, while the same side, you’re going to have similarly powerful technology, really verifying the accuracy, as well as the validations coming from those sort of queries, as well as those sorts of intelligence. And they’ll both have to sync in order to enable an end to end workflow. And I think, again, this is where our belief is, there’s still going to be an incredible amount of spreadsheets still in existence, catering for that workflow moving forward, but also ensuring that obviously, information can be validated and showcase to the relevant sort of regulatory as well as audit parties, which financial institutions simply have to serve towards.

    Whitney McDonald 7:42
    Yeah, I think that the workflow is definitely something to break out of AI. Of course, across the financial institution, there can be several use cases there risk mitigation being one, back end processing being being another, so throughout the institution, but as you said, the the regulators are obviously going to be monitoring that very closely, as well. And as we’ve heard, I’m wondering if we can, I mean, take a step back here, talk through some and you don’t have to name any names, but any coherent clients that are doing this well, right now, monitoring risk, taking a step forward in in using these types of technology to make sure that they have these processes in place.

    John Brisco 8:28
    Yeah, so we’re fortunate that we, we’re working with some of the largest financial institutions in the world to some of the top 10 banks, as well as top 10 asset managers, and shooters are our clients. And I think every one of those institutions, always outlines that risk management is a continual sort of investment, as well as a continual sort of iteration. Nobody will ever turn around and say that they’ve got it right 100% Because the reality is, is that business circumstances as well as business sort of challenges are continually changing. So what we’re seeing is therefore, I think, an acknowledgement that people always have to be stepping to the next level of capabilities in order to improve their model management, improve their risk processes, improve their workflow automation, in order to kind of make sure that they comply with various regulatory standards as well as practices. Like for example, just recently, I think the Bank of England has just released the new CPE 622 standard on model risk management, which essentially many banks operating and obviously the the Bank of England jurisdiction are going to have to comply with moving forward and that’s going to mean for many of those institutions quite a significant uplift around in terms of governance, testing auditability, as well as attestation of models within their environment. And that’s on top of Things such as the bow framework and various other sort of operational guidelines, which you are continually facing bank, so it never stops, it always has to evolve. So what you’re trying to do with the institutions that we work with, is how can you figure out ways to effectively have much more systemic ways across the business, in order to Manny some of these challenges versus random point solutions, which actually sometimes create more issues than not. So I think that’s where the thinking is going, particularly in large institutions. And then when you go into the more original size banks, obviously, the shock of what’s happened with SBB, and some others as men, that all of a sudden, I think they’ve got an incredible focus on wanting to transform their their whole model risk, as well as that sort of capabilities within their institutions. And we’ve seen incredible demand there. And a number of regional banks are coming on as clients based on some of the circumstances which have been happening. I think there’s one element of Model Management, which is obviously on the risks aid. And then obviously, the generated vi say that around what the future of that’s going to mean. But I think still, which is an incredible opportunity for organizations is the complete untapped IP, which sits within their data model sets today, particularly as it sets in either tools like spreadsheets or things like Python, where the reality is, is that some of that logic, which has been created by very seasoned and experienced teams within institutions, often is quite trapped and siloed. So Model Management isn’t just about risk management, but it’s also about Opportunity Management around how can you unlock that intelligence in a much more scalable way, within your within your kind of financial services institution. And I think that’s where the opportunity lies for some of the organizations that we’re working with, as well as some that we hope to work with, is that as the markets hopefully rebound over the next year or odd, yes, rest will always be important. Yes, control and automation will always be important, but how to kind of use your data intelligence and that IP to a much level much greater level I think is going to be the other frontier, which banks are going to particularly focus on, on one element that has obviously been investments and and banking technology platforms, like data lakes, as well, there’s big cloud sort of spend. But still, nobody’s unlocked the whole spreadsheet paradigm around all the data that sits there. And I think the institutions which figure that out, along with some of the generator vi capabilities are the ones who are going to truly win moving forward. And I think that’s a hugely sort of exciting area for financial institutions to obviously take advantage of, but 14 out technology companies like ourselves to obviously be part of that journey as they really sought to unlock that untapped that potential.

    Whitney McDonald 12:56
    You’ve been listening to the buzz of bank automation news podcast, please follow us on LinkedIn. And as a reminder, you can rate this podcast on your platform of choice. Thank you for your time, and be sure to visit us at Bank automation news.com For more automation news,

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    Whitney McDonald

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  • The Pregnancy Risk That Doctors Won’t Mention

    The Pregnancy Risk That Doctors Won’t Mention

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    The nonexhaustive list of things women are told to avoid while pregnant includes cat litter, alfalfa sprouts, deli meat, runny egg yolks, pet hamsters, sushi, herbal teas, gardening, brie cheeses, aspirin, meat with even a hint of pink, hot tubs. The chance that any of these will harm the baby is small, but why risk it?

    Yet few doctors in the U.S. tell pregnant women about the risk of catching a ubiquitous virus called cytomegalovirus, or CMV. The name might be obscure, but CMV is the leading infectious cause of birth defects in America—far ahead of toxoplasmosis from cat litter or microbes from hamsters. Bafflingly, the majority of babies infected in the womb are unaffected, but an estimated 400 born with CMV die every year. Thousands more end up with hearing and vision loss, epilepsy, developmental delays, or microcephaly, in which the head and brain are unusually small. Exactly why the virus so dramatically affects some babies but not others is unknown. There is no cure and no vaccine.

    Amanda Devereaux’s younger child, Pippa, was born with CMV, which caused damage to her brain. Pippa is prone to seizures. She could not walk until she was 2 and a half, and she is nonverbal at age 7. “I was just flabbergasted that no one told me about CMV,” says Devereaux, who is now the program director for the National CMV Foundation, which raises awareness of the virus. The nonprofit was founded by parents of children with congenital CMV. “Every single one of them says, ‘Why didn’t I hear about this?’” Devereaux told me.

    One reason that doctors have hesitated to spread the word is that the most obvious way to avoid this virus is to avoid infected toddlers. Symptoms from CMV are usually mild to nonexistent in healthy adults and children. Toddlers, who frequently pick up CMV at day care, can continue shedding the virus in their bodily fluids for months and even years while totally healthy. “I’ve encountered a classroom of 2-year-olds where every single child was shedding CMV,” Robert Pass, a retired pediatrician and longtime CMV researcher at the University of Alabama, told me when we spoke in 2021. (He recently died, at age 81.)

    This creates a common scenario for congenital CMV: A toddler in day care brings CMV home and infects Mom, who is pregnant with a younger sibling. One recent study found that congenital CMV is nearly twice as common in second-born children than in firstborns. Devereaux’s toddler son was in day care when she was pregnant. “I was sharing food with him because he would not finish his breakfast,” she told me. She had no idea that his half-eaten muffin could end up harming her unborn daughter. In hindsight, she says, “I wish I had spent less time worrying about not eating deli meat and more time focused on, Hey I’ve got this toddler at day care. I’m at risk for CMV.”

    CMV is such a tricky virus because few things about it are absolute. A mother cannot avoid her toddler categorically. Most pregnant women infected with CMV do not pass it to their babies. Most infected babies end up just fine. Doctors warn patients against many risks in pregnancy—see the list above—but in this case thousands of parents every year are blindsided by a very common virus. No one has a perfect answer for how to stop it.

    Day cares have been known as hot spots for CMV since at least the 1980s, when Pass, in Alabama, and other researchers in Virginia first began tracking congenital cases back to child-care centers. The virus is rampant in day cares for the same reason that other viruses are rampant in day cares: Young children are born with no immunity, and they aren’t very diligent about avoiding one another’s saliva, urine, snot, and tears, all of which harbor CMV. Of mothers with infected toddlers in day care, a third who have never had the virus catch it within a year. And getting CMV for the first time while pregnant is the riskiest scenario; these so-called primary infections are most likely to result in serious complications for the fetus. But recent research has found that reinfections and reactivations of the virus can lead to congenital CMV too. (CMV remains inside the body forever after the first infection, much like chickenpox, which is caused by a related virus.)

    So eliminating the risk of congenital CMV entirely is impossible. But some CMV experts advocate giving women a short list of actions to reduce their risk during the nine months of pregnancy: Avoid sharing food or utensils with toddlers in day care; kiss them on the top of the head instead of on the mouth; wash your hands frequently, especially after diaper changes; and clean surfaces that come in contact with saliva or urine. A study in Italy found that pregnant women who were taught these measures cut their risk of catching CMV by sixfold. A study in France found that it lowered risk too.

    In the U.S., patients are unlikely to hear this advice from their obstetricians, though. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists doesn’t recommend telling patients about ways to reduce CMV risk. According to ACOG, the evidence that behavioral changes can make a difference—from just a handful of studies—is not strong enough, and the organization sees downsides to the approach. Advice such as not kissing babies and toddlers could harm “a mother’s ability to bond with her children,” and these hygiene recommendations could “falsely reassure patients” about their risk of CMV, Christopher Zahn, ACOG’s interim CEO, said in a statement to The Atlantic.

    The CMV community disagrees. “I think they’re being a bit paternalistic,” says Gail Demmler-Harrison, a pediatric-infectious-diseases doctor at Texas Children’s Hospital. A group of international CMV experts, including Demmler-Harrison, endorsed patient education in a set of consensus recommendations in 2017. Devereaux, with the CMV Foundation, frames it as a matter of choice. It shouldn’t be “somebody else is saying, ‘You can’t handle this information; I’m not going to share that with you,” she told me. Without knowing about CMV, women can’t decide what kind of risk they’re comfortable with or what kind of hygiene changes are too burdensome. “It’s your choice whether you make them or not,” she says. “Having that choice is important.”

    More data on how well these behavioral changes work might be coming soon: Karen Fowler, an epidemiologist at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, is enrolling hundreds of pregnant women in a clinical trial. Only 8 percent of participants had heard of CMV before joining the study, she says. Patients get a short information session about CMV and then 12 weeks of text-message reminders. Importantly, she says, “we’re keeping our message very simple”: Reduce saliva sharing: no eating leftover food, no sharing utensils, and no cleaning a pacifier in your mouth. This simple rule cuts off the most probable routes of transmission. Sure, CMV is also shed in urine, tears, and other bodily fluids—but mothers aren’t routinely putting any of those in their mouth.

    Prevention of CMV ends up the focus of so much attention because once a fetus is infected, the treatment options are not particularly good. The best antiviral against CMV is not considered safe to use during pregnancy, and another antiviral, although safer, is not that potent. After infected babies are born, antiviral therapy can help preserve hearing in those with other moderate to severe symptoms from CMV, but it can’t reverse damage in the brain. And it’s unclear how much antivirals help those with only mild symptoms. When does benefit outweigh risk? “There’s a big gray area,” says Laura Gibson, a pediatric-infectious-diseases doctor at the University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School. For these reasons, policies of whether to screen all newborns vary state to state, even hospital to hospital. Knowledge can be power—but with a virus as confusing as CMV, knowledge of an infection doesn’t always point to an obvious best choice.

    In an ideal world, all of this could be made obsolete with a CMV vaccine. But such a vaccine has proved elusive despite a lot of interest. In the U.S., the Institute of Medicine deemed a CMV vaccine the highest priority around the turn of the millennium, and about two dozen vaccine candidates have been or are being studied. All of the completed clinical trials, though, have failed. “The immunity may look robust in the first month or year, but then it wanes,” Demmler-Harrison says. And even vaccines that elicit some immune response are not necessarily able to elicit one strong enough to protect against CMV infection entirely.

    CMV is such a challenging virus to vaccinate against because it knows our immune system’s tricks. “It’s evolved with humans for millions of years,” Gibson says. “It knows how to get around and live with our immune system.” Our immune system is never able to eliminate the virus, which emerges occasionally from our cells to replicate and try to find another host. And so a vaccine that completely protects against CMV would need to prompt our immune system to do something it cannot naturally do. It would need to be better than our immune system. “As time goes on, I think fewer and fewer people are thinking that might work,” Gibson says. But a vaccine doesn’t have to protect against all infections to be useful. Because first infections are the riskiest for fetuses, being vaccinated could still reduce risk of congenital CMV.

    Whom to vaccinate is another complicated question to answer for CMV. We could vaccinate all toddlers, as we do against rubella, which is also most dangerous when passed from mother to fetus. This has the potential advantage of promoting widespread immunity that tamps down circulation of CMV, period. But the virus doesn’t actually harm toddlers much, and immunity could wane by the time they grow up to childbearing age. Or we could vaccinate teenagers, as we do against meningococcal disease, but teens are more likely to miss vaccines and again, immunity could wane too soon. So what about all pregnant women? By the time someone shows up at the doctor pregnant, it’s probably too late to protect during CMV’s highest risk period, in the first trimester. A better understanding of CMV immunity and spread could help scientists decide on the best strategy. Gibson is conducting a study (funded by Moderna, which is testing a CMV-vaccine candidate) on how the virus spreads and what kinds of immune responses are correlated with shedding.

    Until a vaccine is developed—should it happen at all—the only way to prevent CMV infection is the very old-tech method of avoiding bodily fluids. It’s imperfect. Its exact effectiveness is hard to quantify. Some people might not find it worthwhile, given the small absolute risk of CMV in any single pregnancy. There are, after all, already so many things to worry about when expecting a baby. Yet another one? Or, you might think of it, what’s one more?

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    Sarah Zhang

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  • Either regulate Big Tech’s entry into finance now, or regret it later

    Either regulate Big Tech’s entry into finance now, or regret it later

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    After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the public discourse has been brimming with hindsight advice on what regulators and lawmakers have missed. Yet nobody is talking about a major trend that is injecting future risk into the financial system: Big Tech’s entry into banking. Dangers are growing exponentially with the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi), but defining what tech titans should be allowed to do is tricky.

    Over the last years tech giants have been racing toward financial services. Apple, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Amazon and Meta (Facebook’s parent company) have all leaped into the payments market. Some partner with licensed banks to offer credit, while Amazon has even entered the corporate lending business. In perhaps the most ambitious initiative yet, Facebook led a group of corporations that attempted to issue a global super-currency far away from the reach of central banks. And though it eventually failed, there are already new plans to run money in the metaverse.

    If you wonder how deep Big Tech can get into banking look to China. WeChat Pay and Alipay have long since dethroned credit card schemes and other incumbents. Alibaba’s interest-bearing micro-savings tool Yu’e Bao became the world’s largest money market fund in 2019. Tencent runs a licensed virtual bank together with traditional finance players. Examples abound.

    Most of these forays went hand in hand with crucial innovation such as mobile payments or the proliferation of open banking. They slashed costs for consumers, boosted financial inclusion and enhanced usability. Yet these advances are also fraught with dangers.

    Data privacy is a big one. Monopolistic tendencies are another. These are issues hotly debated by politicians across the globe, but what often goes unnoticed is the systemic risk Big Tech’s entry injects into the financial system.

    The International Monetary Fund, the Financial Stability Board and the Bank for International Settlements have all warned of the ensuing cross-sectoral, cross-border risks. Laws are not yet ready to let tech tycoons control the arteries of the global economy. And as the age of decentralized finance unfurls, the dangers are put under a magnifying glass.

    While projects such as Apple or Google Pay were confined to one layer, the triumphal march of blockchain technology and digital assets lets Big Tech compete on the level of assets, settlements, gateways and applications. Facebook’s aforementioned digital currency, called Libra, is a case in point. Had it been successful, Facebook would have had a say in the issuance of the asset, the blockchain on which settlement occurred and the wallet by which users manage their money.

    Digital assets are no isolated space anymore. Increasingly, real-life assets are merging with on-chain ones. This interconnectedness means that contagion can easily spread from the unregulated DeFi space to the traditional financial system.

    Tech titans are already at the brink of turning into shadow banks. And if they are honest about achieving their visions, say of building the metaverse, then they will inevitably have to put their weight behind DeFi as well.

    So how does all this trickle down to concrete policies? The first thing is to put competition on an equal footing, allowing technology giants, banks and fintechs to compete fairly in all areas of tomorrow’s world of finance. Laws cannot block one group from tinkering with crypto assets while giving another free rein. On- and off-chain assets will melt together, whether regulators like it or not. It is better to pen the rules early on than to sleepwalk into an inevitable future.

    Unfortunately, some lawmakers are sprinting in the opposite direction. Rather than bringing the increasing DeFi activity onto regulated turf, they want to bar banks from even touching digital assets, hence leaving it to unregulated entities including Big Tech. But there is more to do.

    Breaking up tech titans, as some politicians suggest, is not a viable option. Neither is banning them from financial services. Legislation such as the Keep Big Tech out of Finance Act would rob the banking sector of much-welcome innovation and competition. Yet while data giants are innovation powerhouses, they must not enjoy preferential treatment and they must not pile up risks unnoticed. The balancing act can only succeed if today’s approach of activity-based regulation yields to an entity-based one. It is not sufficient that tech titans must solely abide by isolated rules that govern, for example, payments or selling insurance. Due to their clout, tech goliaths must be designated as critical infrastructure providers and as such be regulated on the corporate level just like traditional banks, who have to abide by rules on capital requirements, corporate governance and reporting, as well as numerous restrictions on activities and exposures.

    Furthermore, entity-based regulation impacts a company’s risk calculation. If regulated entities break the rules, they face losing
    the license to operate, not simply fines. “We’re sorry and we’re working on a solution” should not be an acceptable answer for companies dealing with data security and most certainly not for those managing money. Hence, activity-based rules can only be a supplement, not a substitute, for regulating systemically important organizations.

    There will be those who argue that technology giants still make up a comparably small fraction of the financial system, yet we have seen that Big Tech is silent about its ambitions all the way up to a big bang announcement. Think Libra or Apple Pay. Due to their unparalleled consumer access, financial resources and technological know-how, these forays can upend a market overnight. And due to Big Tech’s nature of global and cross-industry operations this risk could spread through the world economy like a wildfire. Regulators and lawmakers would do well to act before another crisis ensues.

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    Igor Pejic

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  • JPMorgan using AI to combat financial crimes | Bank Automation News

    JPMorgan using AI to combat financial crimes | Bank Automation News

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    SAN FRANCISCO — JPMorgan Chase is investing in artificial intelligence to combat fraud and financial crimes as the $2.5 trillion bank looks to increase its precision and capture rate.   “There’s really a couple things that we’re laser-focused on,” JPMorgan Payments Global Head of Trust & Safety & Payments CDO Ryan Schmiedl said Wednesday at Finovate Spring 2023 in San Francisco.   “One is capture […]

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    Joey Pizzolato

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  • Ready, set, pay: Prepping for FedNow | Bank Automation News

    Ready, set, pay: Prepping for FedNow | Bank Automation News

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    The launch of FedNow is finally around the corner and it’s been a long time coming, industry experts told Bank Automation News. “The launch reflects an important milestone in the journey to help financial institutions serve customer needs for instant payments to better support nearly every aspect of our economy,” Tom Barkin, president of the […]

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    Whitney McDonald

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  • 4 Risk Levels To Know When Investing In Real Estate

    4 Risk Levels To Know When Investing In Real Estate

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    The San Francisco Office Tower was worth $300 million four years ago, but is now for sale, with some estimating it will sell for 80% less, as reported in The Wall Street Journal (and by the way, it’s mostly empty). Meanwhile, in Dallas, nearly 6 million square feet of office space is under construction, amid a corporate project surge, as mentioned in The Dallas Morning News.

    Headlines such as these serve as examples of the ongoing fluctuations in real estate markets. For beginning and veteran investors, there are always risk levels to factor in when making decisions. Some properties are more likely to generate a safe return, while others have a less certain forecast. (And keep in mind, what is a disadvantage for some might be an advantage for others!)

    Before investing, it’s essential to know the risk level attached to the asset. In this second article (see the first here) of the series, “Making Investment Decisions in Today’s Real Estate Market,” we’ll look at the financial factors commonly attached to properties.

    Here’s an overview of the four main types of risk levels in commercial real estate:

    Core investment: These properties usually have a credit tenant already in place. A credit tenant will have a strong financial standing and present lower risk than others. This type of investment is known for its safe return and low levels of risk, which could make it a great fit for a passive investor.

    Core plus: Assets in this category are cash flowing, which means the income begins upon acquisition. There could be some opportunities to fix up the property and increase rents too. However, tenants in this category may not have the outstanding credit of those in the core investment space. Furthermore, renovations and repairs for these properties could require additional funds.

    Value-add: Properties in this segment often come with high potential (and higher levels of risk). Professional investors frequently look for this type of asset, which might require massive renovations or a complete reimagining of the space. While there may be major work required upfront, the returns on these properties could be higher as well.

    Opportunistic: These projects frequently involve heavy development, which might include demolishing a building and putting up a new one. While the chance for high returns appeals to some investors, there is also significant risk involved. The initial funding required will be higher than other asset classes, and if plans go awry, the promised future income might not become a reality.

    Surveying the Real Estate Scene

    Once you’re aware of the property types available and have an understanding of the risk profiles, the best place to make an initial commercial real estate investment is often close to home. You’ll be more in tune to the current fluctuations in your own neighborhood or city. There’s nothing quite like walking through a property and talking to those involved in it! The process will provide key insight on why the property is being sold, what condition it is in, and where value could be added to it.

    Finally, being aware of the ongoing market shifts will enable beginning and veteran investors to make wise decisions. With office spaces emptying, there could be opportunities to look at residential properties and find ways to make them more comfortable for remote workers. Carrying out research on a place and making a move when you’re ready will increase your chances for positive outcomes—and returns that outperform the market.

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    James Nelson, Contributor

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  • Mitigating risk post SVB, FRB collapse | Bank Automation News

    Mitigating risk post SVB, FRB collapse | Bank Automation News

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    Financial institutions are looking to risk mitigation and regulatory compliance technology following the industry turbulence brought on by the recent collapses of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank. The events of the past two months have banks asking, “What do they have in place to, one, protect themselves but also earn the […]

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    Whitney McDonald

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  • Is April now the time to activate your sell-in-May-and-go-away stock-market strategy?

    Is April now the time to activate your sell-in-May-and-go-away stock-market strategy?

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    Followers of the “Sell In May and Go Away” market-timing strategy may want to consider selling stocks before the end of April.

    The “Sell in May and Go Away” strategy, which also goes by the “Halloween Indicator,” calls for being in the stock market for the six months between Oct. 31 and May 1, and out of the market the other half of the year. Investors who mechanically follow this seasonal strategy therefore wait until the close of the last trading day of April to sell and to the close of the last trading day of October to…

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  • 3 Risks That Come With Rebranding — and How to Overcome Them | Entrepreneur

    3 Risks That Come With Rebranding — and How to Overcome Them | Entrepreneur

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    Rebranding is not an effort to take lightly. There’s no shortage of brands that got the wrong kind of attention after changing up their logo (remember Airbnb?) or their name (hello, Meta).

    And while a healthy dose of fear is a good thing going into a rebrand (to keep from embarking on the effort frivolously), it shouldn’t paralyze you from making much-needed decisions or taking confident action either.

    Having just recently rebranded ourselves, complete with a new logo and a new name, trust me … I get it. Here are some of the biggest risks we faced during the process and the ways we got around them in the end.

    Related: Does Your Company Need A Rebrand? Here’s Why, When and How You Should Do It.

    Risk: Loss of brand equity

    This is a common one, even for companies that have only been around for a short time. Losing what little recognition you’ve achieved feels like a huge void. Customers need re-educating. Employees need retraining. It’s by far the greatest risk you’ll face.

    In our situation, the risk was twofold. We had spent the last few years acquiring a number of other companies in the relationship-marketing space to build an integrated full-stack solution. That meant we were rebranding not only the name of the umbrella company that acquired all these brands, but we had to reposition each of them individually under the new, combined entity.

    The first part wasn’t so hard, since the umbrella company doing the buying wasn’t a strong brand to begin with. It was just a placeholder as we built our strategy through acquisitions. So, changing from CM Group to Marigold wasn’t a huge risk.

    Far more challenging was how to reposition the multiple companies underneath it — each with its own customers, employees and existing marketing and messaging in the field. In particular, the employees of each company were tied both professionally and emotionally to those brands, and upsetting that carries its own risks.

    Our solution was to keep the names of those solutions but reposition them as services offered by the parent brand Marigold — “Cheetah Digital by Marigold” or “Sailthru by Marigold,” for instance.

    This “endorser strategy” allowed us to keep all the familiarity and brand equity each service has gained over the years but present them in a new light as part of a suite of services that are even more valuable when offered together — greater than the sum of their parts — and promote Marigold in the process.

    Related: 4 Tips for Launching a Successful Rebrand

    Risk: Upsetting company culture

    Let’s face it, a rebrand is a disruption to the day-to-day business of running a company. Those most affected are often not involved in the decisions made about the brand either. So, employee confusion, resistance and resentment are very real fears.

    We were highly sensitive to this fact given the number of companies we had acquired. We didn’t just combine different technologies and services through the process, we acquired different cultures, leadership teams and histories.

    But part of blending different companies under one banner is the need to establish a new culture that all can share. Again, we needed to create something that was more than just the sum of its parts. It had to retain everything that existed before, as well as add something new and useful to all.

    In short, it shouldn’t feel so much like a change as a natural evolution.

    We did this by communicating the rebranding strategy to all parties before launching externally. This was done in thoughtful stages to ensure the right employees were informed and consulted at the right phase of the process. While, of course, what resulted likely didn’t reflect the opinions and expectations of everyone, we felt it was important that all were heard, valued and informed.

    Then we evangelized it company-wide, using the process to bring together these formerly disparate teams into a new common ground.

    Related: Important Lessons I Learned From a Rebrand

    Risk: Alienating customers

    Changing the name or functionality of a product or service that customers use is kind of like rearranging the furniture in their house without asking. So, when you make the big reveal, you want a positive reaction. We decided to notify our customer base about the branding changes before the press release went out. That way, they heard it from us and not a surprise in the press.

    As part of this process, it’s critical when the new brand is unveiled that you emphasize all the ways this new development will help THEM. Remember, a rebrand is not about fancy new logos or juiced-up marketing language. It’s about establishing an idea and an expectation with the people who will make or break your business. If you’re not rebranding with the customer first, it’s a massive risk.

    Our goal was to use the rebranding effort not just to reintroduce our company and services, but to really use the rebrand as a way to hit reset on the entire industry we serve. Why did we acquire all these companies and integrate their functionality under one banner? Because the business of marketing has changed fundamentally, and a new kind of relationship-marketing solution is needed to support it adequately.

    Make your rebrand less about you or what you want from the industry, and instead make it about the unique value you bring to your customers, moving forward like you’re rebranding an entire industry. Set the tone. Change the narrative. Define the space you operate in, and emerge as the new leader by default.

    So, yes … rebranding is risky. But given the right set of market forces and company evolutions, not rebranding can be even more so. As long as you’re honest with yourself about your intentions and use rebranding to solve the problems both you and your customers share, it’ll likely have a positive result for all.

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    Michelena Howl

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  • Institute for Economics & Peace, Lloyds Register Foundation Release Safety Perceptions Index 2023: Severe Weather & Rising Anxiety Lead Global Risk Poll

    Institute for Economics & Peace, Lloyds Register Foundation Release Safety Perceptions Index 2023: Severe Weather & Rising Anxiety Lead Global Risk Poll

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    The second edition of the Safety Perceptions Index finds an increase in harm from severe weather and rising global anxieties associated with the state of employment, economic conditions, and ‘ambiguous risk.’ Uzbekistan leads the Index while Mali falls to last place, primarily driven by internal conflict and terrorism.


    LONDON, England, February 23, 2023 (Newswire.com)
    –
    Today marks the launch of the second edition of the Safety Perceptions Index (SPI), a collaboration between Lloyd’s Register Foundation, a global safety charity, and the Institute for Economics & Peace, an international think tank.

    Key results

    • There was a 5-percentage point increase in the number of people saying they felt less safe in 2021. 
    • There has been a global rise in ‘ambiguous risk,’ the feeling that people are at risk but are unsure from what. 
    • Both worry and the experience of harm in relation to food and water improved; however, low-income and conflict-ridden countries have recorded substantial deteriorations.
    • In 2021, more people reported experiencing harm from severe weather than in 2019, but levels of worry decreased.
    • Anxieties associated with employment and economic conditions rose between 2019 and 2021, likely caused by the economic downturn.
    • The country most impacted in the SPI was Mali, which has experienced two recent coups and has been racked by multiple violent conflicts.
    • Counterintuitively, the overall SPI score improved following the onset of COVID-19, likely due in part to COVID-related lockdowns and the restriction on movement globally. 

    The second Safety Perceptions Index report, released today, provides a comprehensive measure of global perceptions of safety. The report is based on two iterations of the Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll, the first conducted in 2019 and the second in 2021, and provides commentary, trends, and insights into these two sets of data.

    In 2021, the SPI improved globally across two domains – food and water and violent crime – and deteriorated in two – severe weather and mental health. Uzbekistan recorded the best overall score, while Mali recorded the worst overall score. Mali is currently suffering from a violent internal conflict, has high rates of terrorism, and saw its government overthrown in successful coups in both 2020 and 2021.

    Sub-Saharan African countries are the most risk-impacted in the world. Many countries in the region are among those with the highest worry rates globally and are represented in the top five most impacted countries for food and water, mental health, and workplace safety.

    The only domain in which the average levels of both worry and experience of harm increased was the mental health domain, likely due in part to the proliferation of COVID-19 lockdowns and other disruptions to regular social life. The World Health Organisation estimates that COVID-19 led to a 25% increase in rates of anxiety and depression, with women and young people hit the hardest. 

    “The Safety Perceptions Index 2023 report digs deeper into the World Risk Poll data to provide us with valuable insights into how perceptions of safety differ across countries, and how the various aspects of risk are connected,” said Sarah Cumbers, Director of Evidence & Insight at Lloyd’s Register Foundation. “The report will be useful in the decades ahead as it will provide insight into the shifts in perception that might be associated with any future pandemics or other global shocks, and how to manage those changes.”

    Safety perceptions – the shifting risk landscape

    Over half of the countries surveyed recorded substantial deteriorations in feelings of safety compared to five years earlier. In Myanmar, 11% of the population reported feeling less safe in 2019, rising to 59% in 2021. In Vietnam, 37% of the population also reported feeling less safe, an increase of 26 percentage points from 2019. However, many countries improved. In Sweden, the percentage of the population feeling more safe rose from 12% in 2019 to 32% in 2021. Zambia recorded a notable increase, rising from 19% to 37%. 

    Rise in ‘ambiguous risk’

    The 2023 SPI report finds a rise in ‘ambiguous risk.’ This refers to people’s feeling that they are at risk, but are unsure from what. The rise in ambiguous risk can be seen in the responses to the World Risk Poll question on the greatest perceived threat in people’s daily lives. Between 2019 and 2021, the largest changes in response rates were for those saying that no risk existed in their lives, which fell by half, and those saying they did not know what their greatest risk was, which nearly doubled. 

    COVID-19 and risk

    The 2023 SPI highlights the changing dynamics of risk that accompanied the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The world is less certain about its future than at any time since the Cold War. The pandemic continues to impact every corner of the globe, inflation is rising, Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted international relations, and economic growth has slowed and, in some cases, reversed. As COVID-19 only ranked as the fourth most cited threat to people’s daily safety, these findings suggest that it was the societal experience of the pandemic – more than the virus itself – that most impacted worries and experiences of risk. 

    Regional & country findings 

    • Uzbekistan was the highest-scoring country overall and, on average, the Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia region had the best scores globally. This is a noteworthy result, given that countries in the region do not typically rank highly in other measures of security and development. 
    • The worst-scoring country in the 2023 SPI was Mali, which has experienced two recent coups and has been racked by multiple violent conflicts. 
    • On average, sub-Saharan Africa was the worst-scoring region in the SPI; all five countries with the worst scores are in the region, with four of them currently suffering from violent conflict.

    For more information, visit visionofhumanity.org and https://wrp.lrfoundation.org.uk. 

    ENDS

    NOTES TO EDITORS

    The SPI report is available at: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/SPI-2023-1.pdf

    The SPI report focuses on the risks with the potential to cause the most disruption and have the most significant impact on the lives of people across the world. It measures two themes: worry about harm and recent experience of serious harm, analysing them across five domains: food and water, violent crime, severe weather, mental health, and workplace safety. These themes and domains are combined into a composite score which reflects perceptions of safety by country and region. The survey was completed prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has significantly stressed global food supply chains.

    About Lloyd’s Register Foundation and the World Risk Poll

    Lloyd’s Register Foundation is an independent global safety charity that supports research, innovation, and education to make the world a safer place. Its mission is to use the best evidence and insight, such as the World Risk Poll, to help the global community focus on tackling the world’s most pressing safety and risk challenges. The Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll is the first global study of worry about, and harm from, risks to people’s safety. 

    lrfoundation.org.uk | https://wrp.lrfoundation.org.uk

    About the Institute for Economics & Peace 

    The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is the world’s leading think tank dedicated to developing metrics to analyse peace and to quantify its economic value. It does this by developing global and national indices, calculating the economic cost of violence, analysing country-level risk, and understanding Positive Peace. The research is used extensively by governments, academic institutions, think tanks, non-governmental organisations and by intergovernmental institutions such as the OECD, The Commonwealth Secretariat, the World Bank, and the United Nations.

    Related Links

    http://economicsandpeace.org

    Source: Institute for Economics & Peace

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  • 3 Expert-Backed Strategies for Facing Fear

    3 Expert-Backed Strategies for Facing Fear

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    Comedian Jim Carrey might not seem like an expert in facing fears as an entrepreneur, especially since many of us associate his corporate experience with losing a fight to a ballpoint pen in the 1997 film Liar, Liar. But in 2014, he delivered a commencement speech to the graduates of Iowa’s Maharishi International University, and he had some surprisingly sage words.

    “So many of us choose our path out of fear disguised as practicality,” he said. “What we really want seems impossibly out of reach and ridiculous to expect.” But fear, he says, isn’t so much about practicality as it is about focusing on worst-case scenarios. He goes on:

    “My father could have been a great comedian, but he didn’t believe that that was possible for him. And so he made a conservative choice. Instead, he got a safe job as an accountant. And when I was 12 years old, he was let go from that safe job, and our family had to do whatever we could to survive. I learned many great lessons from my father, not the least of which was that you can fail at what you don’t want, so you might as well take a chance on doing what you love.”

    Being an entrepreneur is inherently risky. But the usual risks have magnified in recent years given the uncertainty of the economy in the wake of Covid, the new challenges of managing remote or hybrid teams, and even unrest and conflict abroad. Here’s how to keep moving forward, even in these trying times.

    Related: These Are the Thinking Habits Most Likely to Destroy Your Life, According to a Therapist

    No action is still action

    It might seem as though staying still will somehow protect you, like a deer that freezes when it hears human footsteps. But as Harvard Business Review‘s Sabina Nawaz points out, “not making a choice is, in itself, a choice.”

    Rather than trying to shrink from decision-making, Nawaz suggests starting small. “Instead of ignoring the requests to make a decision, assign resources or launch a project, identify one next step to get moving. For example, you can poll half a dozen customers about how they use your product to further inform the path forward,” she writes.

    Changes, whether they’re within your business or the economy as a whole, will happen with or without your consent. Trust yourself to make decisions with confidence, and do the best with the resources you have. Remind yourself of all the obstacles you’ve overcome and the challenges you’ve confronted head-on to get to where you are. What tools did you use in those moments? What skills did you develop as a result? Keep those times in mind, and remember that you’re more resilient than you think.

    Related: 5 Fears All Entrepreneurs Face (and How to Conquer Them)

    Silence the noise

    In 2020, I fell into a trap that consumed many of us: Doomscrolling. The constant assault of bad news and scary statistics took its toll on my mental health, and I found my sleep and appetite were out of whack.

    When we’re afraid of something, it’s often easier to give in to distractions or worse, validate those fears with information we find online. But spiraling doesn’t fix whatever it is we’re afraid of; in fact, it makes it worse.

    Instead of hunting for evidence to support your fears, turn down the noise and focus on your actual concerns. Nawaz suggests naming the “perceived nemesis you’re avoiding,” and then creating a spreadsheet with three columns: Worst-case scenarios, the current situation and the ideal outcome. Note down what would need to happen for each possibility to occur. Mapping out the route to these outcomes may help you discover that the worst-case scenario really isn’t all that bad, or it can be avoided with a shift in direction.

    At the same time, it’s also helpful to limit the amount of negativity you’re subjecting yourself to. After I started restricting my news consumption to just 15 or 20 minutes daily, I found myself feeling less anxious and more able to run my company with a clear mind.

    Related: Why Many Entrepreneurs Fear Success — and How They Can Overcome It

    Get in touch with your emotions

    Being an entrepreneur requires a high degree of emotional intelligence — and part of that involves understanding how your feelings are influencing your behavior. For instance, if everything you do suddenly seems terrible, take a step back. Is it actually terrible? Is everything really going to fail? Or is this less about reality and more about your mindset?

    The good news is that emotional self-awareness can be learned. One method I’ve found helpful is practicing mindfulness. When I feel anxiety clouding my judgment, I like to use a method called RAIN, which meditation teacher Tara Brach talks about in her book Radical Compassion:

    • Recognize the fear when it comes up. Is it related to work, or home?
    • Allow it to coexist within you. Sit with the fear, rather than trying to fix, control or judge it.
    • Investigate it. Focus on your body, and try to pinpoint the origin of the fear.
    • Nurture the feeling. “You might just put your hand on your heart and offer a kind or soothing message to yourself,” Back advises. “You can say to the fear, ‘Thank you for trying to protect me; it’s okay.’”

    The urge to be risk-averse makes sense. As Brach points out, fear is your mind’s way of trying to protect you. But for most of us in the modern age, fear is more existential than it was when our brains evolved. In some cases, fear is a good thing: It keeps us on our toes; it can motivate us to do our best work. The key is learning to use it to your advantage, rather than paralyze you.

    Related: 7 Deadly Misconceptions About Entrepreneurship and Starting a Business

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  • Buy vs. build in 2023: Preparing to partner | Bank Automation News

    Buy vs. build in 2023: Preparing to partner | Bank Automation News

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    The recent collapse of crypto exchange company FTX might have banks and fintechs reevaluating their partnership-vetting processes in 2023 to avoid potential reputational damage. “As a result of the recent circumstances arising in the digital asset space, it may lead to a phase of tread with caution [for partnerships],” Tejus Oza, managing director, North America […]

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    Whitney McDonald

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  • Banks empower those who power the economy | Bank Automation News

    Banks empower those who power the economy | Bank Automation News

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    While we continue to measure the economy by market strength, we can’t forget that for many, financial security means affording the basics like shelter, food and gas. There’s a lot of talk about democratizing finance, but how do we move our society forward if we don’t reach the masses in a meaningful way? The underserved market — with one of the biggest populations being the middle class — requires access to a financial system that can service them responsibly. 

    The opportunity 

    There is a massive opportunity in providing financial services catered for the middle class. Although commonly overlooked, this segment fuels two-thirds of the world’s consumer spending. With about two of every five consumers having a credit score under 700, there is a massive population of people facing financial rejection and financial services are not meeting them where they are. 

    Linda Brooks, chief technology officer at Atlanticus

    Being “underbanked” starts with banks, but doesn’t end there. It impacts all aspects of people’s lives, including their ability to buy or rent a home, acquire insurance and utilize affordable services that can help get them off their feet. With millions of Americans having limited options when it comes to financial services, there is an urgent need for banks and fintechs that have a deep understanding of this demographic and can cater their offerings to them prudently. 

    The challenges 

    Despite a large consumer need for banking services catered toward the middle class, financial institutions are not capitalizing on it because of the challenges presented when working with those with a less-than-perfect financial history. This segment is underserved because it’s not easy to serve middle-class Americans responsibly; it’s serious work that requires deep expertise and a long track record of success to do it properly.  

    Providing banking and lending services to non-prime lenders presents risks, but with 58% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck as inflation spikes, ignoring the changing environment can be detrimental. 

    The solutions 

    It starts at the top: to provide services to an underbanked market, you need executives, business leaders and product developers that understand that market. Focusing on diversity, equity and inclusion within our financial institutions will continue to push us forward in our evolution and understanding of the needs of all demographics.

    More tactically, we must lean more heavily on tech, analytics and data to inform our understanding of the middle class better. A track record of data on consumer behavior, repayment patterns and spending habits can help banks and their partners tailor their offerings to the middle class, but data is only as good as the conclusions that can be drawn from it. 

    Banks should lean on technology that can empower them to more comfortably provide services to this demographic. Deep historical data informs many financial institutions’ decision-making engines, and analytics can be tapped to better predict outcomes and minimize risks that come along with lending for both the consumer and the bank. These tech tools are readily available, however, there is not a broad enough adoption to give the everyday consumer the options they require. Banks should leverage fintechs for predictive and risk mitigation solutions that prioritize reaching these consumers in a way that provides a positive outcome for both the bank and the banked. 

    The middle class plays a critical role in our economy’s growth, and yet financial services are leaving this segment underserved. The technology needed to provide banks and lenders with the security and confidence to help the middle class exists, but there needs to be a desire from the top to implement them. It starts with us, with building diverse leadership teams of individuals who want to make a change. 

    Linda Brooks is the chief technology officer at Atlanticus, a financial technology company powering more inclusive financial solutions for everyday Americans, and was previously a developer at IBM for more than 16 years.  

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