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Kyiv, Ukraine
If politics makes strange bedfellows, war sometimes makes strange career paths. In her 20s, Iryna Terekh was a “very artsy” architect who viewed the arms industry as “something destructive.” Now Ms. Terekh, 33, is chief technical officer and the public face of Fire Point, a Ukrainian defense company. She and her team developed the Flamingo, a long-range cruise missile that President Volodymyr Zelensky has called “our most successful missile.”
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Jillian Kay Melchior
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Vestas Wind Systems VWS -3.14%decrease; red down pointing triangle
The Danish wind turbine maker last year unveiled plans to build a new blade factory in Szczecin, near the Baltic Sea coast, to support Europe’s build-out of offshore wind parks.
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Dominic Chopping
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GURUGRAM, India—When the Trump Organization in April announced another luxury real-estate project in India, Eric Trump gave a shout out to his local partners for helping accelerate the brand’s expansion.
“We’re incredibly excited to launch our second project in Gurgaon,” Eric Trump, who runs day-to-day operations, using the former name for the city near New Delhi. “And even prouder to be doing it once again with our amazing partners.”
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Rory Jones
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President Trump’s company has said he won’t be involved in day-to-day management. But the president’s personal business and his government role intersected this week when he was heard on a hot mic arranging a meeting between his son Eric, who runs the family company, and Indonesia’s leader.
In the exchange, captured on audio at a Middle East summit, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto referred to an issue about a region that was “not safe, securitywise” before asking Trump: “Can I meet Eric?”
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Rory Jones
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With Donald Trump’s legal liabilities growing and a presidential campaign to run, losing control of his company couldn’t have come at a worse time.
After a New York judge ordered the Trump Organization to pay $364 million in penalties and barred the former president from any role in running a business in New York state for three years, Trump now finds himself backed further into a financial corner with fewer options for how to maneuver.
“It will have such an enormous impact on the operation of his business,” said Randy Zelin, a professor of law at Cornell University and a veteran criminal defense attorney with experience in complex financial matters. “But it will also provide a strong basis for an appeal.”
New York Attorney General Letitia James had asked New York State Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron to levy a $370 million financial penalty against the Trump Organization and also to ban Trump and his children Ivanka, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump from running any company in the state of New York, where his real-estate empire has long been based.
Engoron’s ruling barred Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump from being involved in running any business in the state for two years. The judge also ordered that former U.S. District Court Judge Barbara Jones, who has been serving as an independent monitor of the Trump Organization since 2022, continue in that role with expanded powers for the next three years. The ruling also ordered that an independent compliance officer be appointed within 30 days.
“The Trump Organization shall be required to obtain prior approval — not, as things are now, subsequent review — from Judge Jones before submitting any financial disclosure to a third party, so that such disclosure may be reviewed beforehand for material misrepresentations,” the ruling read.
The outcome of the civil trial sat solely in Engoron’s hands, and in September, he issued a summary judgment essentially ruling in favor of James’s arguments that the Trump Organization had engaged in fraud for years by repeatedly misstating the value of assets to lenders and insurance companies.
The judgment is the latest in a string of legal and financial blows that the former president has faced and that have already had an impact on his presidential campaign.
Trump has incurred $76 million in legal costs over the past two years stemming from the wide array of criminal and civil prosecutions he faces. More than $27 million of the money raised in the last six months of 2023 to support his presidential campaign has instead been used to cover his legal costs, according to campaign-finance filings.
A report by Bloomberg earlier this week suggested that Trump may face a cash crunch caused by his ballooning legal costs as early as this summer, just as the presidential race will be heating up.
Last month, a federal jury ordered Trump to pay $83.3 million in damages for defaming the writer E. Jean Carroll, whom he had attacked online after she had accused him of raping her in a department-store dressing room in the 1990s. He had earlier been hit with a $5 million verdict in a state case on similar charges.
Trump has vowed to appeal the verdicts and denied raping Carroll, but in order to appeal, he will be required to put up bonds for the full award amounts. That means he would need to either get a bank to back him or to pledge collateral — like a real estate asset — to secure the bond.
But without full control of his real-estate empire, Trump will likely find it harder to line up financing or use his assets as freely as before.
Under the terms of Engoron’s ruling, Trump will no longer be able to make any moves involving assets held by the Trump Organization without the approval of the court-appointed monitor.
Even pledging his assets as collateral for the bond that he would be required to post in order to file an appeal would be complicated by the imposition of a monitor.
“When you lose control of your company, you lose control of who is going to be paid and how much they will be paid. All the money will, first and foremost, be used to operate the business, and how much goes to Trump and his children becomes a secondary concern,” Zelin said.
Add to that the mounting legal costs for multiple criminal cases being brought against him — on charges related to Jan. 6 as well as charges of mishandling classified documents, election fraud, racketeering and illegally paying hush money to women who claimed they’d had affairs with him — and Trump finds himself in a worsening financial bind.
So far, the former president has managed to cover many of his legal costs through donations from his political supporters, but that means that money won’t be available to fund his campaign for president. At the end of the year, President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign had about $46 million cash on hand, while Trump’s campaign had $33 million, Federal Election Commission filings show. Some $50 million held by Trump’s political action committees has already been used to cover his legal bills.
Regarding the properties held by the Trump Organization, while Trump has been able to refinance many of the loans underlying his bigger real-estate holdings, pushing their maturity dates back several years, he still has a stake in some high-profile buildings that have debt coming due in the next few years.
With the court-appointed monitor part of the equation, it might now be more difficult for Trump to secure new debt in order to refinance those buildings, and that could even technically trigger defaults, depending on how the loan covenants were written.
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Nvidia Corp. is raking in billions in cash, but one analyst thinks the chip maker could throw $100 billion more onto the pile if it started to look more like Salesforce Inc.
Nvidia
NVDA,
might unlock even more cash by developing businesses that expand recurring revenue, according to BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya. The company has suffered some boom-and-bust cycles in recent years, and another bust could be smoothed by developing longer-term software contracts akin to those of Salesforce
CRM,
, Workday Inc.
WDAY,
and ServiceNow Inc.
NOW,
which generate recurring revenue from their customers.
Arya sees a pathway for Nvidia to rake in $100 billion in incremental free cash flow over the next two years if it can bulk up its own recurring-revenue options.
Read: Apple’s stock needs to get ‘unstuck’ — and its innovation rut may not be helping
“While NVDA has a solid lead in AI, hardware-oriented businesses are not valued as highly as visibility tends to be limited,” Arya wrote. Nvidia generates only about $1 billion, or 2%, of its sales from software and subscriptions. Arya doesn’t think the company can get much higher than $5 billion with its software and subscription offerings unless it turns to acquisitions.
Nvidia has shown some openness to deals that would beef up its intellectual property and software offerings, Arya notes, as it tried to buy British chip designer Arm Holdings
ARM,
before facing regulatory pushback.
“We envision [Nvidia] considering more enhanced partnerships/M&A of software companies that are helping traditional enterprise customers deploy, monitor and analyze [generative AI] apps,” he wrote. Nvidia “is already serving them via on-premise hardware and/or its DGX cloud service, but we believe greater direct recurring software/service channel could be more impactful.”
The addition of more recurring-revenue streams could help Nvidia’s “relatively depressed trading multiple,” in Arya’s view. Nvidia shares trade at a 20% to 30% discount to its “Magnificent Seven” peers on the basis of price to earnings as well as enterprise value to free cash flow, even though the company’s compound annual growth rate on the top line is three times what it is for those other tech giants.
The discount is “partly due to uncertainty in [calendar 2025] growth prospects, and partly due to a very hardware-dependent business unlike other large-cap software/internet peers that have recurring-revenue profiles,” he wrote.
Arya has a buy rating and $700 price objective on the stock.
See also: Amazon’s stock could be helped by this secret weapon in 2024, BofA says
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Shares of Medical Properties Trust plummeted after the real estate investment trust said it is ramping up efforts to recover uncollected rent and outstanding loans from its largest tenant.
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(Updated with Friday’s closing prices.)
The 2023 rally for stocks in the U.S. accelerated as more investors bought the idea that the Federal Reserve succeeded in its effort to bring inflation to heel.
The S&P 500
SPX
ended Friday with a 24.2% gain for 2023, following a 19.4% decline in 2022. (All price changes in this article exclude dividends). Among the 500 stocks, 65% were up for 2023. Below is a list of the year’s 20 best performers in the benchmark index.
This article focuses on large-cap stocks. MarketWatch Editor in Chief Mark DeCambre took a broader look at all U.S. stocks of companies with market capitalizations of at least $1 billion, to list 10 with gains ranging from 412% to 1,924%.
The Fed began raising short-term interest rates and pushing long-term rates higher in March 2022 by allowing its bond portfolio to run off. That explains the poor performance for stocks in 2022, as bonds and even bank accounts because more attractive to investors.
The central bank hasn’t raised the federal-funds rate since moving it to the current target range of 5.25% to 5.50% in July, and its economic projections point to three rate cuts in 2024.
Investors are anticipating the return to a low-rate environment by scooping up 10-year U.S. Treasury notes
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y,
whose yield ended the year at 3.88%, down from 4.84% on Oct. 27 — the day of the S&P 500’s low for the second half of 2023.
Read: Treasury yields end mostly higher but little changed on year after wild 2023
Before looking at the list of best-performing stocks of 2023, here’s a summary of how the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 performed, with the full index and three more broad indexes at the bottom:
| Sector or index | 2023 price change | 2022 price change | Price change since end of 2021 | Forward P/E | Forward P/E at end of 2022 | Forward P/E at end of 2023 |
| Information Technology | 56.4% | -28.9% | 11.5% | 26.7 | 20.0 | 28.2 |
| Communication Services | 54.4% | -40.4% | -7.6% | 17.4 | 14.3 | 21.0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 41.0% | -37.6% | -11.4% | 26.2 | 21.7 | 34.7 |
| Industrials | 16.0% | -7.1% | 8.0% | 20.0 | 18.7 | 22.0 |
| Materials | 10.2% | -14.1% | -4.9% | 19.5 | 15.8 | 16.6 |
| Financials | 9.9% | -12.4% | -3.4% | 14.6 | 13.0 | 16.3 |
| Real Estate | 8.3% | -28.4% | -21.6% | 18.3 | 16.9 | 24.7 |
| Healthcare | 0.3% | -3.6% | -3.3% | 18.2 | 17.7 | 17.3 |
| Consumer Staples | -2.2% | -3.2% | -5.4% | 19.3 | 20.6 | 21.4 |
| Energy | -4.8% | 59.0% | 51.8% | 10.9 | 9.8 | 11.1 |
| Utilities | -10.2% | -1.4% | -11.4% | 15.9 | 18.7 | 20.4 |
|
S&P 500 SPX |
24.2% | -19.4% | 0.4% | 19.7 | 16.8 | 21.6 |
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA |
13.7% | -8.8% | 3.8% | 17.6 | 16.6 | 18.9 |
|
Nasdaq Composite COMP |
43.4% | -33.1% | -3.5% | 26.9 | 22.6 | 32.0 |
|
Nasdaq-100 NDX |
53.8% | -33.0% | 3.5% | 26.3 | 20.9 | 30.3 |
| Source: FactSet | ||||||
A look at 2023 price action really needs to encompass what took place in 2022 for context. The broad indexes haven’t moved much from their levels at the end of 2022 (again, excluding dividends). We have included current forward price-to-earnings ratios along with those at the end of 2021 and 2022. These valuations have declined a bit, which may provide some comfort for investors wondering how likely it is for stocks to continue to rally in 2024.
Here are the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 whose prices rose the most in 2023:
| Company | Ticker | 2023 price change | 2022 price change | Price change since end of 2021 | Forward P/E | Forward P/E at end of 2022 | Forward P/E at end of 2021 |
| Nvidia Corp. |
NVDA, |
239% | -50% | 68% | 24.9 | 34.4 | 58.0 |
| Meta Platforms Inc. Class A |
META, |
194% | -64% | 5% | 20.2 | 14.7 | 23.5 |
| Royal Caribbean Group |
RCL, |
162% | -36% | 68% | 14.3 | 14.9 | 232.4 |
| Builders FirstSource Inc. |
BLDR, |
157% | -24% | 95% | 14.2 | 10.7 | 13.3 |
| Uber Technologies Inc. |
UBER, |
149% | -41% | 47% | 56.9 | N/A | N/A |
| Carnival Corp. |
CCL, |
130% | -60% | -8% | 18.7 | 41.3 | N/A |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc. |
AMD, |
128% | -55% | 2% | 39.7 | 17.7 | 43.1 |
| PulteGroup Inc. |
PHM, |
127% | -20% | 81% | 9.1 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
| Palo Alto Networks Inc. |
PANW, |
111% | -25% | 59% | 50.2 | 38.0 | 70.1 |
| Tesla Inc. |
TSLA, |
102% | -65% | -29% | 66.2 | 22.3 | 120.3 |
| Broadcom Inc. |
AVGO, |
100% | -16% | 68% | 23.2 | 13.6 | 19.8 |
| Salesforce Inc. |
CRM, |
98% | -48% | 4% | 28.0 | 23.8 | 53.5 |
| Fair Isaac Corp. |
FICO, |
94% | 38% | 168% | 47.1 | 29.3 | 28.7 |
| Arista Networks Inc. |
ANET, |
94% | -16% | 64% | 32.7 | 22.3 | 41.4 |
| Intel Corp. |
INTC, |
90% | -49% | -2% | 26.6 | 14.6 | 13.9 |
| Jabil Inc. |
JBL, |
87% | -3% | 81% | 13.5 | 7.9 | 10.3 |
| Lam Research Corp. |
LRCX, |
86% | -42% | 9% | 25.2 | 13.5 | 20.2 |
| ServiceNow Inc. |
NOW, |
82% | -40% | 9% | 56.0 | 42.6 | 90.1 |
| Amazon.com Inc. |
AMZN, |
81% | -50% | -9% | 42.0 | 46.7 | 64.9 |
| Monolithic Power Systems Inc. |
MPWR, |
78% | -28% | 28% | 49.1 | 27.3 | 57.9 |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Click on the tickers for more about each company.
Don’t miss: Nvidia tops list of Wall Street’s 20 favorite stocks for 2024
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The housing market’s stagnation this year is projected to carry over into 2024. But a forecast published today by Realtor.com identifies metro areas that are poised to see both rising prices and sales next year, with Toledo, Ohio, leading the way.
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In a strange flashback to the demise of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., WeWork Inc.’s stock soared on its over-the-counter debut this week, just days after the office sharing company filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
WeWork
WEWKQ,
filed for Chapter 11 in New Jersey on Monday and the beleaguered company’s stock was halted before the open that day. The New York Stock Exchange started the delisting process for WeWork that same day.
Trading resumed over the counter on Wednesday, with WeWork shares ending their first session as an OTC stock up 91.5%.
A similar scenario happened when shares of Bed Bath & Beyond began trading over the counter in May after the Nasdaq started the delisting process for the bankrupt home-goods retailer and sometime meme-stock darling. Despite Bed Bath & Beyond’s well-documented woes, the stock ended its first session as an OTC stock up 30.4%. Bed Bath & Beyond’s shares were canceled in September.
In June Overstock.com acquired Bed Bath & Beyond’s intellectual property, and began operating as Bed Bath & Beyond, before changing its corporate name to Beyond Inc.
BYON,
Like Bed Bath & Beyond, WeWork has continued to attract investor attention even as the company’s problems mounted. In mid-September WeWork’s stock saw a record run-up amid meme stock chatter, just weeks after WeWork warned that it may not be able to stay in business.
Related: WeWork files for bankruptcy, capping a stunning downfall
Users on social media noted the activity in WeWork’s share price this week, with Twitter user @asunapg warning Thursday that the OTC markets are “much more volatile and often a death trap for a lot of companies.”
“Here we go again” tweeted @B2Investor Friday, with popcorn and clown emojis.
WeWork’s stock ended Thursday’s session down 21.3% and the stock is down 12.7% Friday, compared with the S&P 500 index’s
SPX
gain of 1.3%.
Related: Why investors gamble on shares of bankrupt companies — Bed Bath & Beyond, for example
Tom Bruni, head of content at StockTwits, a social platform for investors and traders, told MarketWatch that, from what he is seeing, there doesn’t seem to be broad interest in the stock.
“Unlike Bed Bath & Beyond and others where it seemed possible to restructure and continue operating, the current situation for WeWork is mainly a math equation,” he told MarketWatch. “It’s looking most likely that it’ll be bought out, the question is at what price and how much cash (if anything) does that leave for common shareholders to receive? The consensus right now is that all value from its 52 million shares of common stock will be wiped out.”
Set against this backdrop, short covering could be driving the stock price up in the short term, according to Bruni. “Many market participants don’t want to risk being squeezed by unexpected good news, so they’d rather take their gains than ride it all the way down to zero,” he said. “Should that high short interest start to create sustainable upside momentum (more than a few days), then we’d likely see other traders get involved on the long side.”
“But for now, with earnings season in full swing, there’s plenty of volatility and news elsewhere for investors/traders to focus on,” he added.
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Updated Oct. 26, 2023 12:05 am ET
With China’s property bust threatening to sink the country’s economic recovery, Xi Jinping is looking for someone to blame.
After putting the billionaire founder of Evergrande, a heavily indebted property firm, under investigation for possible crimes, Beijing is expanding its probes to include bankers and financial institutions that facilitated developers’ risky behavior, people familiar with the matter say.
Copyright ©2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
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Two things investors can be sure about: Nothing lasts forever and the stock market always overreacts. The spiking of yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities has been breathtaking, and it has led to remarkable declines for some sectors and possible bargains for contrarian investors who can commit for the long term.
First we will show how the sectors of the S&P 500
have performed. Then we will look at price-to-earnings valuations for the sectors and compare them to long-term averages. Then we will screen the entire index for companies trading below their long-term forward P/E valuation averages and narrow the list to companies most favored by analysts.
Here are total returns, with dividends reinvested, for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, with broad indexes below. The sectors are sorted by ascending total returns this year through Monday.
| Sector or index | 2023 return | 2022 return | Return since end of 2021 | 1 week return | 1 month return |
| Utilities | -18.4% | 1.6% | -17.2% | -11.1% | -9.6% |
| Real Estate | -7.1% | -26.1% | -31.4% | -3.0% | -8.8% |
| Consumer Staples | -5.4% | -0.6% | -6.0% | -2.2% | -4.4% |
| Healthcare | -4.2% | -2.0% | -6.1% | -1.7% | -3.3% |
| Financials | -2.5% | -10.5% | -12.7% | -2.5% | -4.7% |
| Materials | 1.3% | -12.3% | -11.2% | -1.9% | -7.0% |
| Industrials | 3.5% | -5.5% | -2.1% | -1.8% | -7.3% |
| Energy | 4.0% | 65.7% | 72.4% | -1.9% | -1.4% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 27.0% | -37.0% | -20.0% | -0.6% | -5.2% |
| Information Technology | 36.5% | -28.2% | -2.0% | 0.8% | -5.9% |
| Communication Services | 42.5% | -39.9% | -14.3% | 1.1% | -1.3% |
|
S&P 500 |
13.1% | -18.1% | -7.4% | -1.1% | -4.9% |
|
DJ Industrial Average |
2.5% | -6.9% | -4.5% | -1.7% | -4.0% |
|
Nasdaq Composite Index COMP |
28.0% | -32.5% | -13.7% | 0.3% | -5.1% |
|
Nasdaq-100 Index |
36.5% | -32.4% | -7.7% | 0.5% | -4.2% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||
Returns for 2022 are also included, along with those since the end of 2021. Last year’s weakest sector, communications services, has been this year’s strongest performer. This sector includes Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL
and Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
which have returned 52% and 155% this year, respectively, but are still down since the end of 2021. To the right are returns for the past week and month through Monday.
On Monday, the S&P 500 Utilities sector had its worst one-day performance since 2020, with a 4.7% decline. Investors were reacting to the jump in long-term interest rates.
Here is a link to the U.S. Treasury Department’s summary of the daily yield curve across maturities for Treasury securities.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes
jumped 10 basis points in only one day to 4.69% on Monday. A month earlier the 10-year yield was only 4.27%. Also on Monday, the yield on 20-year Treasury bonds
rose to 5.00% from 4.92% on Friday. It was up from 4.56% a month earlier.
Market Extra: Bond investors feel the heat as popular fixed-income ETF suffers lowest close since 2007
The Treasury yield curve is still inverted, with 3-month T-bills
yielding 5.62% on Monday, but that was up only slightly from a month earlier. An inverted yield curve has traditionally signaled that bond investors expect a recession within a year and a lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Demand for bonds pushes their prices down. But the reverse has happened over recent days, with the selling of longer-term Treasury securities pushing yields up rapidly.
Another way to illustrate the phenomenon is to look at how the Federal Reserve has shifted the U.S. money supply. Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove wrote in a note to clients on Friday that “the Federal Reserve has not deviated from its policy to defeat inflation by tightening monetary policy,” as it has shrunk its balance sheet (mostly Treasury securities) to $8.1 trillion from $9 trillion in March 2022. He added: “The M2 money supply was $21.8 trillion in March 2022; today it is $20.8 trillion. You cannot get tighter than these numbers indicate.”
Then on Tuesday, Bove illustrated the Fed’s tightening and the movement of the 10-year yield with two charts:
Bove said he believes the bond market has gotten it wrong, with the inverted yield curve reflecting expectations of rate cuts next year. If he is correct, investors can expect longer-term yields to keep shooting up and a normalization of the yield curve.
This has set up a brutal environment for utility stocks, which are typically desired by investors who are seeking dividend income. In a market in which you can receive a yield of 5.5% with little risk over the short term, and in which you can lock in a long-term yield of about 5%, why take a risk in the stock market? And if you believe that the core inflation rate of 3.7% makes a 5% yield seem paltry, keep in mind that not all investors think the same way. Many worry less about the inflation rate because large components of official inflation calculations, such as home prices and car prices, don’t affect everyone every year.
We cannot know when this current selloff of longer-term bonds will end, or how much of an effect it will have on the stock market. But sharp declines in the stock market can set up attractive price points for investors looking to go in for the long haul.
A combination of rising earnings estimates and price declines could shed light on potential buying opportunities, based on forward price-to-earnings ratios.
Let’s look at the sectors again, in the same order, this time to show their forward P/E ratios, based on weighted rolling 12-month consensus estimates for earnings per share among analysts polled by FactSet:
There is a limit to how many columns we can show in the table. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is now 17.94, compared with 16.79 at the end of 2022 and 21.53 at the end of 2021. The benchmark index’s P/E is above its 10- and 15-year average levels but below the five-year average.
If we compare the current sector P/E numbers to 5-, 10- and 15-year averages, we can see that the current levels are below all three averages for four sectors: utilities, real estate, financials and communications services. The first three face obvious difficulties as they adjust to the rising-rate environment, while the real-estate sector reels from continuing low usage rates for office buildings, from the change in behavior brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Your own opinions, along with the pricing for some sectors, might drive some investment choices.
A broader screen of the S&P 500 might point to companies for you to research further.
We narrowed the S&P 500 as follows:
Here are the 20 companies that passed the screen, for which analysts’ price targets imply the highest upside potential over the next 12 months.
There is too much data for one table, so first we will show the P/E information:
| Company | Ticker | Current P/E to 5-year average | Current P/E to 10-year average | Current P/E to 15-year average |
| SolarEdge Technologies Inc. | SEDG | 89% | N/A | N/A |
| AES Corp. | AES | 66% | 75% | 90% |
| Insulet Corp. | PODD | 18% | N/A | N/A |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. | UAL | 42% | 50% | N/A |
| Alaska Air Group Inc. | ALK | 51% | 57% | N/A |
| Tapestry Inc. | TPR | 39% | 49% | 70% |
| Albemarle Corp. | ALB | 39% | 50% | 73% |
| Delta Air Lines Inc. | DAL | 60% | 63% | 21% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. | ARE | 59% | 68% | N/A |
| Las Vegas Sands Corp. | LVS | 96% | 78% | 53% |
| Paycom Software Inc. | PAYC | 61% | N/A | N/A |
| PayPal Holdings Inc. | PYPL | 33% | N/A | N/A |
| SBA Communications Corp. Class A | SBAC | 27% | N/A | N/A |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | AMD | 58% | 39% | N/A |
| LKQ Corp. | LKQ | 92% | 44% | 78% |
| Charles Schwab Corp. | SCHW | 75% | 54% | 73% |
| PulteGroup Inc. | PHM | 94% | 47% | N/A |
| Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. | LW | 71% | N/A | N/A |
| News Corp Class A | NWSA | 93% | 73% | N/A |
| CVS Health Corp. | CVS | 75% | 61% | 67% |
| Source: FactSet | ||||
Click on the tickers for more about each company or index.
News Corp
NWSA
is on the list. The company owns Dow Jones, which in turn owns MarketWatch.
Here’s the list again, with ratings and consensus price-target information:
| Company | Ticker | Share “buy” ratings | Oct. 2 price | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| SolarEdge Technologies Inc. | SEDG | 74% | $122.56 | $268.77 | 119% |
| AES Corp. | AES | 79% | $14.16 | $25.60 | 81% |
| Insulet Corp. | PODD | 68% | $165.04 | $279.00 | 69% |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. | UAL | 71% | $41.62 | $69.52 | 67% |
| Alaska Air Group Inc. | ALK | 87% | $36.83 | $61.31 | 66% |
| Tapestry Inc. | TPR | 75% | $28.58 | $46.21 | 62% |
| Albemarle Corp. | ALB | 81% | $162.41 | $259.95 | 60% |
| Delta Air Lines Inc. | DAL | 95% | $36.45 | $58.11 | 59% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. | ARE | 100% | $98.18 | $149.45 | 52% |
| Las Vegas Sands Corp. | LVS | 72% | $45.70 | $68.15 | 49% |
| Paycom Software Inc. | PAYC | 77% | $260.04 | $384.89 | 48% |
| PayPal Holdings Inc. | PYPL | 69% | $58.56 | $86.38 | 48% |
| SBA Communications Corp. Class A | SBAC | 68% | $198.24 | $276.69 | 40% |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | AMD | 74% | $103.27 | $143.07 | 39% |
| LKQ Corp. | LKQ | 82% | $49.13 | $67.13 | 37% |
| Charles Schwab Corp. | SCHW | 77% | $53.55 | $72.67 | 36% |
| PulteGroup Inc. | PHM | 81% | $73.22 | $98.60 | 35% |
| Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. | LW | 100% | $92.23 | $123.50 | 34% |
| News Corp Class A | NWSA | 78% | $20.00 | $26.42 | 32% |
| CVS Health Corp. | CVS | 77% | $69.69 | $90.88 | 30% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||
A year may actually be a short period for a long-term investor, but 12-month price targets are the norm for analysts working for brokerage companies.
Don’t miss: This fund shows that industry expertise can help you make a lot of money in the stock market
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Stock investors are showing some hesitancy for Tuesday, with big signals on the economy coming this week via consumer prices and retail sales. Ahead of that, Apple is expected to tempt consumers with yet another new iPhone on Tuesday.
How much should investors be worrying right now? Our call of the day from Pershing Square Capital Management manager Bill Ackman says that in the near term, we can relax a little, but it isn’t all roses.
Read: Hedge funds have bailed on the U.S. consumer in a big way, Goldman Sachs data finds
He told the Julia La Roche Show in an interview where he felt like he had a “crystal ball of what was going to happen,” starting in January 2020 with the COVID-19 outbreak, and that carried on through interest rates and the economy. Indeed, the manager reportedly made nearly $4 billion on a couple of pandemic-related bets.
“I would say the crystal ball has clouded a bit in the last period. I think these are unusual economic times and perhaps we always say that, but I don’t think this is a pattern that has been repeated…or it hasn’t been for more than 100 years,” he said.
But he remains near-term upbeat. “For two years, people have been saying that recession’s around the corner and you know we’ve had a very different view, and continue to have this view that I think people are coming around to, that the economy is actually still quite strong,” he said.
And while those on lower-income rungs have burned through a lot of COVID savings, he thinks the economy has yet to really see impact from the big fiscal stimulus seen in recent years.
Looking down the road though, Ackman has got a stack of concerns over the economy. He sees about a third of federal debt due to get repriced meaning that over a relatively short period of time, “interest expense will become a much bigger part of the deficit that is not going to be a contributor to the economy.”
And while higher interest rates do help savers, ultimately that will be a big drag on the economy, he said, adding that rising inflation, mortgage rates, car payments and credit card rates, are all set to slow the economy.
“We’re still in the midst of a war and there’s political uncertainty you know with an upcoming election,” he said. That partly explains Pershing Square’s hedge via a short position on the 30-year Treasury bond
BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
that he laid out in a tweet in early August.
For roughly a year, long-term Treasury yields have been trading below short-dated ones, which is known as an inverted yield curve, a phenomenon that’s often seen as a precursor to recession.
“I don’t see inflation getting back to 2% so quickly, if at all, and if in fact we’re in a world of persistent 3% inflation, you know it doesn’t make sense to have a 4.3%, 4.25% Treasury yield,” he said.
Other risks? Ackman remains worried about regional banks following the spring crisis, as many have big fixed-rate portfolios of assets that have gotten less and less valuable as rates rise. “I would say the commercial real estate picture has not gotten better, if anything, you know, you’re going to start seeing real defaults, particularly with office assets,” he said.
“Regional banks have the most exposure to construction loans so they are going to be a lot of construction loans that won’t be able to repaid. There will be a lot of restructurings, so either the investors groups are gonna have to put in a lot more equity or the banks are going to start taking some losses,” he said.
Ackman says investors also face a presidential campaign that could add some stress. The hedge-fund manager said he’s surprised there have not been “more and better alternative candidates” for the 2024 campaign over President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
He’d like to see JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon toss his hat in the ring and believes Biden is “beatable,” by a strong candidate.
Ackman himself said it’s “possible,” he himself could run someday, but he’s more focused on having a better investment track record over Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett — and needs some 30 years to match the Oracle of Omaha.
Read: Here’s an easy way to make a more concentrated play on the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks
Stock futures
ES00,
NQ00,
are tilting south, led by tech, with Treasury yields
BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
steady to a touch lower and the dollar
DXY
recovering some ground.
Read: Watch this ‘canary in the coal mine’ for signs of trouble in markets, Neuberger Berman CIO says
For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.
Oracle shares
ORCL,
are down 10% in premarket trading after disappointing guidance from the cloud database group.
Apple’s
AAPL,
big event kicks off at 1 p.m. Eastern, with the launch of the pricier iPhone 15 expected to be on the agenda.
Hot ticket. Arm Holdings’ IPO is already 10 times oversubscribed and bankers will stop taking orders by Tuesday afternoon, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.
Tech’s wild week: How Apple, Google, AI, Arm’s mega IPO could set the agenda for years
Upbeat results are boosting shares of convenience-store operator Casey’s General Stores
CASY,
Packaging giant WestRock
WRK,
and rival Smurfit Kappa
SK3,
have announced a stock and cash tie up. WestRock shares are up 8% in premarket.
Read: U.S. budget deficit will double this year to $2 trillion, excluding student loans
No better than gambling? Amateur investors are piling into 24-hour options.
Demand for oil, coal, gas to peak this decade, IEA chief says
U.S. takes on tech giant Google in landmark case.
Bank of America’s global fund manager survey for September sees investors still bearish, but no longer on the extreme side. Here’s the chart:
Read: Fund managers just made their biggest shift ever into U.S. stocks — and out of emerging markets
These were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern:
| Ticker | Security name |
|
TSLA, |
Tesla |
|
AMC, |
AMC Entertainment |
|
CGC, |
Canopy Growth |
|
NVDA, |
Nvidia |
|
GME, |
GameStop |
|
AAPL, |
Apple |
|
ACB, |
Aurora Cannabis |
|
NIO, |
Nio |
|
MULN, |
Mullen Automotive |
|
AMZN, |
Amazon |
“Worst investment ever.” Brady Bunch fan buys original house for cut-price $3.2 million.
And the house from the “Halloween” slasher films just sold for $1.8 million.
China may ban clothes that hurt people’s feelings.
Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.
Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch financial columnist James Rogers and economist Stephanie Kelton.
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The second week of September, as in the NFL, marks a kickoff of sorts for the tech year.
Headlined by Apple Inc.’s
AAPL,
seminal iPhone event on the second Tuesday of the month at Apple Park, and anchored by Salesforce Inc.’s
CRM,
wildly popular Dreamforce conference up the road in San Francisco, these several days set a tempo as well as establish a road map for the industry over the next 12 months. They also open the floodgates on tech conference season, with shows stacked up over the next several weeks for Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
and Oracle Corp.
ORCL,
Oh, and there’s that initial public offering from Arm Holdings Plc, the chip designer owned by SoftBank Group Corp.
9984,
that is expected to value Arm at $50 billion to $54.5 billion on a fully diluted basis. Another IPO candidate, delivery startup Instacart, also plans a public offering that would value it at $7.5 billion. Both deals could jump-start what has been a somnolent tech IPO market the past few years.
For that reason alone, this jam-packed tech week might hold even more import, and consequences, than previous years. A confluence of legal tussles, macroeconomic conditions, a trade war with China, and regulatory bluster have raised the stakes.
“It’s a tale of two cities with this week’s events highlighting both the issues and opportunities in tech,” Silicon Valley analyst Maribel Lopez said in an interview, assessing the week. “Arm’s IPO showcases the strength of tech and AI at a time when the AI forum and Google-DoJ shine a light on the concern that a few companies are wielding tremendous power for the future of the world.”
Consider: Hours before Apple is expected to unveil a new crop of iPhones more noteworthy for pricing than features, Alphabet Inc.’s
GOOGL,
GOOG,
Google faces off with the Justice Department in a federal court in Washington, D.C.
Justice Department officials argue that Google illegally leveraged agreements with phone makers such as Apple and Samsung Electronics Co.
005930,
and with internet browsers like Mozilla to be the default search engine for their customers, thus preventing smaller rivals from gaining access to that business.
“This is a backwards-looking case at a time of unprecedented innovation, including breakthroughs in AI, new apps and new services, all of which are creating more competition and more options for people than ever before,” Google General Counsel Kent Walker said in a statement.
The following day, Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., convenes an all-star panel of CEOs from Meta, Microsoft, Google, OpenAI and Palantir Technologies Inc.
PLTR,
As lawmakers ruminate on how to harness AI responsibly, bipartisan legislation is in the works. Sens. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and Josh Hawley, R-Mo., are among those crafting a bill.
Even Apple and Salesforce aren’t immune from recent events: Apple has endured a relatively rough patch of disappointing (for them) revenue and iPhone sales while balancing risk/reward with its huge investment in China, and Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff has threatened to relocate Dreamforce to Las Vegas after more than two decades in his hometown of San Francisco if drug use and homelessness disrupt this year’s event.
The most pressing concern, when all is said and done, is AI — which hovers like the Death Star over the tech landscape.
“The biggest concern is the forum is behind closed doors, which could lead to regulatory capture, where dominant players in the industry help influence the regulations being imposed,” Kimberlee Josephson, associate professor of business administration at Lebanon Valley College (Pa.), said in an interview. “It’s almost as if it puts them in the hot while giving them a seat at the table at the same time.”
“At the very least, it sends the signal that something is being done,” she said. “Antitrust cases are so subjective. What constitutes barriers to entry? DoJ adds a level of seriousness.”
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Electric-vehicle startup VinFast Auto Ltd. has seen its market capitalization fall more than $140 billion in less than two weeks, weighed down by a six-day losing streak for the company’s stock.
Shares of VinFast
VFS,
soared last month after the company went public through a special-purpose acquisition company deal, taking its market cap to an eye-watering $231.3 billion on Aug. 25 — easily surpassing established automakers such as Ford Motor Co.
F,
and General Motors Co.
GM,
VinFast is on pace to extend its losing streak to seven days. Shares of the low-float company fell 26.3% Thursday, taking VinFast’s market cap to $85 billion, according to FactSet data. Ford’s market cap is $47.7 billion and GM’s is $44.5 billion, FactSet data show.
Related: This EV company has a bigger market cap than Ford or GM. But you may not have heard of it.
The EV maker is a majority-owned affiliate of Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup, one of the largest publicly traded companies in Vietnam. VinFast said that as of June 30, 2023, the company has delivered close to 19,000 EVs.
About 99% of VinFast shares are controlled by Vingroup chair and VinFast founder Pham Nhat Vuon, making only a small portion available to investors.
Related: EV startup VinFast may be worth more than Ford or GM, but there’s a catch
VinFast is importing its vehicles into the U.S. and is also ramping up its North American presence. In July, the company broke ground on an electric-vehicle manufacturing site within the Triangle Innovation Point in Chatham County, N.C. The startup says the plant will eventually have the capacity to make 150,000 vehicles a year.
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Shares of Chinese property developers rose sharply Monday, as more major Chinese cities said over the weekend that they would ease mortgage policies in a bid to shore up the real-estate sector.
The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index rose 8.2%. Hong Kong-listed Longfor Group Holdings
960,
climbed 10% and Seazen Group
1030,
jumped 17%. Shanghai-Listed Gemdale
600383,
added 4.1% and China Vanke
000002,
gained 1.4%.
Major Chinese cities across the country, including Beijing and Shanghai, lowered mortgage requirements for some home buyers late last week, lowering the bar for home purchases.
“This nationwide policy measure marks a significant step in stimulating the property sector, as top policymakers become increasingly worried about the collapse of the property sector, the downward spiral, and a rising number of credit risk events among major developers and financial institutions since mid-August,” Nomura analysts said in a note.
Separately, news reports over the weekend saying that property giant Country Garden Holdings
2007,
received creditor approval to extend a bond also lifted the mood and supported the company’s shares. Country Garden shares were last up 9.0% at 0.97 Hong Kong dollars (12 U.S. cents).
Year to date, Country Garden’s stock has slumped 64% after the company posted its worst loss since going public 16 years ago and missed $22.5 million in interest payments on its dollar bonds in August.
Despite Chinese authorities’ supportive policies and Country Garden’s bond extension, some analysts warned that the extension could just be a near-term reprieve.
“With the lack of an eventual resolution [for Country Garden],” headwinds linger for the Chinese property sector, IG Asia analysts said in a note.
“Persistent earnings weakness will no doubt drive the sector’s leverage higher,” said S&P Global Ratings credit ratings analyst Oscar Chung.
S&P believes industry leaders and real-estate companies with a diverse business mix such as rental and service incomes can better withstand declining development margins.
Write to Bingyan Wang at bingyan.wang@wsj.com
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