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  • The Dow is soaring as Big Tech tumbles: What that says about the Fed, recession fears, and the path ahead for stocks

    The Dow is soaring as Big Tech tumbles: What that says about the Fed, recession fears, and the path ahead for stocks

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    The past week offered a tale of two markets, with gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average putting the blue-chip gauge on track for its best October on record while Big Tech heavyweights suffered a shellacking that had market veterans recalling the dot-com bust in the early 2000s.

    “You have a tug of war,” said Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC (RBA), in a phone interview.

    For the technology sector, particularly the megacap names, earnings were a major drag on performance. For everything else, the market was short-term oversold at the same time optimism was building over expectations the Federal Reserve and other major global central banks will be less aggressive in tightening monetary policy in the future, he said.

    Read: Market expectations start to shift in direction of slower pace of rate hikes by Fed

    What’s telling is that the interest-rate sensitive tech sector would usually be expected to benefit from a moderation of expectations for tighter monetary policy, said Suzuki, who contends that tech stocks are likely in for a long period of underperformance versus their peers after leading the market higher over the last 12 years, a performance capped by soaring gains following the onset of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

    RBA has been arguing that there was “a major bubble within major portions of the equity market for over a year now,” Suzuki said. “We think this is the process of the bubble deflating and we think there’s probably further to go.”

    The Dow
    DJIA,
    +2.59%

    surged nearly 830 points, or 2.6%, on Friday to end at a two-month high and log a weekly gain of more than 5%. The blue-chip gauge’s October gain was 14.4% through Friday, which would mark its strongest monthly gain since January 1976 and its biggest October rise on record if it holds through Monday’s close, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    While it was a tough week for many of Big Tech’s biggest beasts, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -8.39%

    and tech-related sectors bounced sharply on Friday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq swung to a weekly gain of more than 2%, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.46%

    rose nearly 4% for the week.

    Big Tech companies lost more than $255 billion in market capitalization in the past week. Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +7.56%

    escaped the carnage, rallying Friday as investors appeared okay with a mixed earnings report. A parade of disappointing earnings sank shares of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +1.29%
    ,
    Google parent Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    +4.30%

    GOOGL,
    +4.41%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -6.80%

    and Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +4.02%
    .

    Mark Hulbert: Technology stocks tumble — this is how you will know when to buy them again

    Together, the five companies have lost a combined $3 trillion in market capitalization this year, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Opinion: A $3 trillion loss: Big Tech’s horrible year is getting worse

    Aggressive interest rate increases by the Fed and other major central banks have punished tech and other growth stocks the most this year, as their value is based on expectations for earnings and cash flow far into the future. The accompanying rise in yields on Treasurys, which are viewed as risk-free, raises the opportunity cost of holding riskier assets like stocks. And the further out those expected earnings stretch, the bigger the hit.

    Excessive liquidity — a key ingredient in any bubble — has also contributed to tech weakness, said RBA’s Suzuki.

    And now investors see an emerging risk to Big Tech earnings from an overall slowdown in economic growth, Suzuki said.

    “A lot of people have the notion that these are secular growth stocks and therefore immune to the ups and downs of the overall economy — that’s not empirically true at all if you look at the history of profits for these stocks,” he said.

    Tech’s outperformance during the COVID-inspired recession may have given investors a false impression, with the sector benefiting from unique circumstances that saw households and businesses become more reliant on technology at a time when incomes were surging due to fiscal stimulus from the government. In a typical slowdown, tech profits tend to be very economically sensitive, he said.

    The Fed’s policy meeting will be the main event in the week ahead. While investors and economists overwhelmingly expect policy makers to deliver another supersize 75 basis point, or 0.75 percentage point, rate increase when the two-day gathering ends on Wednesday, expectations are mounting for Chairman Jerome Powell to indicate a smaller December may be on the table.

    However, all three major indexes remain in bear markets, so the question for investors is whether the bounce this week will survive if Powell fails to signal a downshift in expectations for rate rises next week.

    See: Another Fed jumbo rate hike is expected next week and then life gets difficult for Powell

    Those expectations helped power the Dow’s big gains over the past week, alongside solid earnings from a number of components, including global economic bellwether Caterpillar Inc.
    CAT,
    +3.39%
    .

    Overall, the Dow benefited because it’s “very tech-light, and it’s very heavy in energy and industrials, and those have been the winners,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management told MarketWatch’s Joseph Adinolfi on Friday. “The Dow just has more of the winners embedded in it and that has been the secret to its success.”

    Meanwhile, the outperformance of the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
    RSP,
    +2.08%
    ,
    up 5.5% over the week, versus the market-cap-weighted SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    +2.38%
    ,
    underscored that while tech may be vulnerable to more declines, “traditional parts of the economy, including sectors that trade at a lower valuation, are proving resilient since the broad markets bounced nearly two weeks ago,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Friday note.

    “Stepping back, this market and the economy more broadly are starting to remind me of the 2000-2002 setup, where extreme tech weakness weighed on the major indices, but more traditional parts of the market and the economy performed better,” he wrote.

    Suzuki said investors should remember that “bear markets always signal a change of leadership” and that means tech won’t be taking the reins when the next bull market begins.

    “You can’t debate that we’ve already got a signal and the signal is telling up that next cycle not going to look anything like the last 12 years,” he said.

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  • Why the Dow is having a killer month as it heads for best October ever

    Why the Dow is having a killer month as it heads for best October ever

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    The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been criticized by some market watchers for being a poor barometer of equity-market performance given its relatively small sample size of just 30 stocks.

    But this quality, along with the paucity of megacap technology names, has helped shepherd the index toward what’s expected to be its biggest October gain in its 126-year history.

    With a month-to-date gain of 14%, the Dow
    DJIA,
    +2.57%

    is on track for its best monthly performance since January 1976, when it rose 14.4%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. To clinch its best October ever, it only needs to hang on to a month-to-date gain of 10.65% by the time the U.S. market closes on Monday.

    The Dow is still in a bear market and remains down more than 10% for the year to date. That compares, however, with year-to-date losses of 18.6% for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.40%

    and 29.6% for the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +2.74%
    .

    What exactly has made the Dow’s October performance so stellar?

     The blue-chip gauge is packed with energy and industrials stocks, which have been among the best performing sectors for the stock market since the start of the year, noted Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management. 

    These stocks have performed particularly well since the start of the latest quarterly earnings season, while megacap technology names like Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +1.14%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -7.41%

    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    +4.28%

    have sputtered after delivering results and guidance that disappointed Wall Street this week.

    “It’s very tech-light, and it’s very heavy in energy and industrials, and those have been the winners,” Hogan said. “The Dow just has more of the winners embedded in it and that has been the secret to its success.”

    See: Live markets coverage

    The Dow is on track to log its highest close in at least two months on Friday as it outperforms both the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.40%

    and Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +2.74%
    .
    Furthermore, it’s on track to climb for a sixth straight session, what would be its longest winning streak since May 27, according to DJMD. 

    Adding to the list of notable factoids, the average is also on track to log a fourth straight weekly gain, which would cement its longest winning streak since Nov. 5, 2021, when the index rose for five straight weeks. 

    Caterpillar Inc.
    CAT,
    +3.22%
    ,
    Chevron Corp.
    CVX,
    +0.75%

    And Amgen Inc.
    AMGN,
    +2.21%

    are the top-performing Dow stocks so far this month, having gained 29.3%, 21.2% and 18.3%, respectively, as of Friday.  

    In recent trade, the blue-chip average was up around 700 points, or 2.2%, on track for its biggest daily point and percentage gain in exactly one week.  

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  • Dow hits 2-month high as blue-chip gauge heads for longest winning streak since May

    Dow hits 2-month high as blue-chip gauge heads for longest winning streak since May

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    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 600 points on Friday to its highest level in two months as the blue-chip gauge remained on track for a sixth straight session in the green in what would be its longest winning streak since May 27, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    All three major indexes were trading higher as expectations that the Federal Reserve will shift toward smaller interest-rate hikes after its November meeting have offset weak earnings this week from some of the market’s biggest megacap technology names.

    How are stocks trading?
    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      +1.67%

      gained 59 points, or 1.6%, to 3,866.

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      +1.98%

      rose 589 points, or 1.8%, to 32,623.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      +1.80%

      advanced 181 points, or 1.7%, to 10,974.

    Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were on track to cement their second weekly gain in a row on Friday, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq has substantially lagged after Thursday’s performance, where it was the only one of the major indexes to finish in the red following abysmal earnings from Meta Platforms Inc.

    Barring an intraday turnaround, the Dow is on track to log its fourth straight weekly advance. It remains down just 10.2% so far this year.

    The blue-chip gauge has risen 5% so far this week, while the S&P 500 is up 3.1% and the Nasdaq has risen 1.1%.

    What’s driving markets?

    All eyes were on the Dow Friday as the blue-chip gauge was the only major index to reach new notable highs late this week as its advance during the month of October has somewhat ameliorated its losses for the year so far.

    The Dow has risen 13.5% since the start of the month, leaving it on track for its best October performance since it was created in the late 19th century.

    Perhaps the biggest reason for the Dow’s rise this month is tied to its composition. The average is generally light on technology stocks, while including more of the energy and industrial stocks that have outperformed this year.

    “The Dow just has more of the winners embedded in it and that has been the secret to its success,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B.Reily Wealth.

    Despite some volatility in the premarket session, all three major indexes turned higher after the open as investors remained fixated on expectations for the Fed to down shift to smaller interest rate hikes after next week’s policy meeting — an expectation that endured after the latest reports on inflation and wage growth released Friday.

    See:Market expectations start to shift in direction of slower pace of rate hikes by Fed

    Brad Conger, deputy chief investment officer at Hirtle, Callaghan & Co., said Friday’s data didn’t interfere with mounting expectations that the Fed might soon pause its campaign of aggressive rate hikes.

    “Basically, the market is starting to price in a pause, not a pivot, but maybe a pause. The end is in sight,” Conger said.

    The September core personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation pressures — came in roughly in line with economists expectations, while a more modest 1.2% gain in private wages and salaries in the third quarter was interpreted as a sign that wage growth may have finally peaked, according to Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

    “The Federal Reserve has not yet broken the persistent trend in core inflation and so will likely stay aggressive at next week’s meeting. However, some areas of the economy show significant weakness and could build the case that the Fed downshifts to smaller rate hikes in 2023,” Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist for LPL Financial in Charlotte, NC, said.

    The final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October added 1.3 index points from 58.6 in September, and was up slightly from an initial reading of 59.8 earlier in the month.

    See: GDP looked great for the U.S. economy, but it really wasn’t

    Since the start of the week, investors have digested a batch of disappointing numbers from some of America’s largest tech companies, which helped to sully the overall quality of S&P 500 earnings this quarter.

    On Thursday night, Amazon.com
    AMZN,
    -9.29%

    joined Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +2.75%
    ,
    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    +2.76%

    and Meta
    META,
    +0.34%

    by publishing disappointing earnings for the quarter that ended Sept. 30.

    But despite the disappointing results reported this week, in aggregate, S&P 500 firms are beating earnings expectations by 3.8%, according to Refinitiv data. That’s compared to a long-term average of 4.1% since 1994. However, if energy firms are excluded, the picture darkens substantially.

    Opinion: The cloud boom has hit its stormiest moment yet, and it is costing investors billions

    Shares of Amazon were off 10% after the e-commerce giant, which dominates the consumer-discretionary sector, predicted slower holiday sales and profit while also reporting slower-than-expected growth in its key cloud-computing business.

    Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, said investors were unnerved by Amazon’s guidance cut.

    “The outlook for Q4 was what terrified investors with the retailer guidance operating income in the range $0-4 billion vs est. $4.7 billion and revenue of $140-148 billion vs est. $155.5 billion,” he said in a note.

    One notable exception to the downbeat earnings news this week was Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +7.21%
    ,
    which proved a bright spot after the iPhone maker’s revenue and earnings topped forecasts, helped by record back-to-school sales of Macs. Shares were up nearly 0.9% in premarket trading.

    Companies in focus
    • Oil giants Chevron Corp. CVX and Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM were climbing on Friday after reporting strong results. Chevron is a Dow component.

    • Pinterest Inc. PINS also saw strong sales and profit in the third quarter, beating Wall Street expectations. Its shares were up more than 14%.

    • Intel Corp. INTC shares advanced more than 8% after reporting an earnings beat. The chip maker said it would cut costs by $3 billion next year, and lay off employees, as it trimmed its outlook again.

    See also: Live Markets coverage:

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  • Apple earnings beat as record back-to-school Mac sales outweigh a slight miss on iPhones

    Apple earnings beat as record back-to-school Mac sales outweigh a slight miss on iPhones

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    At the end of a woeful week for Big Tech earnings, Apple Inc. managed to top expectations on revenue and earnings with the help of Macs selling at a record pace during the back-to-school season, which outweighed a slight miss on iPhone sales.

    Apple
    AAPL,
    -3.05%

    shares bounced between slight gains and losses in after-hours action Thursday, even as executives projected that revenue growth could slow in the holiday quarter. As has been the case throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Apple executives declined to offer a traditional financial forecast, but Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri told investors on a conference call that they expect a sequential slowdown in growth during the December quarter, driven in part by sharp currency impacts, tough comparisons for the Mac business and pressures on the services business.

    The smartphone giant’s revenue grew 8% in its fiscal fourth quarter, to $90.1 billion from $83.4 billion a year earlier, and came in ahead of the FactSet consensus of $88.7 billion. Apple generated $42.6 billion in its biggest business, iPhone sales, up from $38.9 billion a year before, but analysts were projecting $43.0 billion.

    A big driver of the upside came from Apple’s
    AAPL,
    -3.05%

    Mac segment, which posted a massive beat even as iPhone sales came up light. The Mac business set an all-time quarterly revenue record at $11.5 billion in the back-to-school quarter, up from $9.2 billion a year before and easily above the FactSet consensus, which called for $9.3 billion.

    Chief Executive Tim Cook explained on the call that the Mac category benefited from the launch of the MacBook Air with Apple’s custom M2 chip, as well as easing supply constraints that allowed Apple to meet a prior demand backlog. Maestri said he expects that Mac revenue will “decline substantially” on a year-over-year basis in the December quarter, however, as that period faces tough comparisons.

    A key question coming into Apple’s report was how demand for the company’s new iPhone 14 line has held up, especially given reports that the company has scaled back earlier production goals. Cook shared that while it was still early, “consumer demand was strong and better than we anticipated that it would be.”

    The company is supply-constrained on the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models, Cook said, adding that it is difficult for the company to “determine the accurate mix” of its phones until it is able to fulfill all of its demand.

    Revenue performance across Apple’s product lines was mixed. While Mac sales were strong, iPad revenue fell to $7.2 billion from $8.3 billion, whereas analysts were modeling $7.8 billion in iPad revenue. That category saw “opposite” trends relative to the Mac business in that iPads were up against an “exceptionally strong iPad quarter” from a year before that included a product launch.

    The company raked in $9.7 billion in revenue across its wearables, home and accessories category, up from $8.8 billion in the same period a year ago. Analysts had expected revenue of $9.2 billion.

    Services revenue climbed to $19.2 billion from $18.3 billion but fell short of the FactSet consensus, which was for $20.0 billion. Maestri shared that while he expects the segment to grow in the December quarter, the business could be impacted by pressures on advertising and gaming, as well as foreign-exchange effects.

    For the latest quarter, Apple recorded net income of $20.7 billion, or $1.29 a share, compared with $20.6 billion, or $1.24 a share, in the year-earlier period. Analysts tracked by FactSet were expecting $1.27 a share in earnings.

    If Apple’s stock managed to hold gains through Friday’s close, it would likely be the only Big Tech company to see positive post-earnings stock performance this week. Shares of Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    -1.98%
    ,
    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    -2.34%

    GOOGL,
    -2.85%
    ,
    and Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    -24.56%

    each posted sharp declines in the session after their respective reports, and Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -4.06%

    shares were off 12% in late trading Thursday.

    Shares of Apple have lost 18% so far this year, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.61%

    — which counts Apple as one of its 30 components — has declined 12%.

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  • Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting

    Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting

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    Data-center stocks buoyed an otherwise down chip sector Thursday as shares of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. cratered on torn-in-half profits and a hike in capital spending to fuel Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse ambitions, prompting one analyst to ask if server chips can only go up now.

    As shares of Meta dropped as much as 25% Thursday, shares of Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +2.31%

    surged as much as 7%, compared with less than 1% declines on the PHLX Semiconductor Index
    SOX,
    -1.51%

    and S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.69%
    .

    Late Wednesday, Meta reported that quarterly profits fell by more than 50% and added that it expects 2022 capital expenditure of $32 billion to $33 billion, compared with a previous range of $30 billion to $34 billion. In 2023, the company said, it expects capital expenditure in the range of $34 billion to $39 billion, “driven by our investments in data centers, servers, and network infrastructure.”

    Meta
    META,
    -24.64%

    noted that an “increase in AI capacity is driving substantially all of our capital expenditure growth in 2023.”

    Soon after Meta made that announcement, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis said in a note that “positive capex commentary from Alphabet
    GOOGL,
    -2.80%
    ,
    Microsoft
    MSFT,
    -2.03%

    and Meta” was all a positive for data-center equipment providers Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    -1.92%
    ,
    Broadcom Inc.
    AVGO,
    -1.26%

    and Marvell Technology Inc.
    MRVL,
    +3.61%
    .
    Lipacis has buy ratings on all four stocks.

    Shares of AMD rallied as much as 5%, Broadcom shares rose as much as 2% and Marvell shares surged as much as 10% Thursday. Intel Corp.
    INTC,
    -3.69%

    shares were up a little more than 1% at one point ahead of its earnings report, scheduled for after the close Thursday.

    Opinion: Facebook and Google grew into tech titans by ignoring Wall Street. Now it could lead to their downfall

    Jefferies noted that Meta’s capital expenditure for 2023 alone charts a 12% year-over-year hike at midpoint, compared with the Wall Street consensus of $29 billion, or a 5% year-over-year decline.

    “We sense investor caution around Nvidia’s datacenter business this quarter, but we expect all four [equipment providers] to discuss positive datacenter trends this earnings season,” Lipacis said, noting he was a buyer of Nvidia stock “in front of its earnings call.”

    From the perspective of the chip industry — which has gone from a two-year global chip shortage to a sudden glut in a matter of months as PC and consumer-electronics demand has dropped sharply, causing chip fabricators to pump the brakes on investments in new capacity — Lipacis questioned whether the glut will ever reach data-center sales, as many have feared.

    “The most common comment we hear from investors on Nvidia is ‘the Datacenter Shoe has to Drop,’” Lipacis said, noting that his data shows that the shoe has already dropped and an uptick is on the horizon.

    Lipacis explained that data-center sales from Nvidia, AMD and Intel combined declined to $10.5 billion in the second quarter from $12 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 and that he is modeling another $10.5 billion quarter in the third.

    “This looks consistent with the pattern since 2017 of 4-to-5 qtrs above trendline, followed by 2-to-3 qtrs of below trendline ‘digestion,’ i.e., it looks like the datacenter shoe has already dropped,” Lipacis said.

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  • Facebook earnings cut in half, Meta stock sinks toward lowest prices in more than 6 years

    Facebook earnings cut in half, Meta stock sinks toward lowest prices in more than 6 years

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    Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. on Wednesday became the latest tech titan tattooed by a precipitous drop in digital advertising, reporting less than half the profit it had in the same quarter a year ago and sending its stock plummeting toward the lowest prices in more than six years.

    Meta 
    META,
    -5.59%

     posted third-quarter earnings of $4.39 billion, or $1.64 a share, down from $9.2 billion, or $3.22 a share last year. Total sales, most of which come from ads, were $27.17 billion, down from $29 billion a year ago. Both results missed the average forecast for profit of $1.90 a share and sales of $27.44 billion, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

    Meta executives issued a fourth-quarter revenue forecast of $30 billion to $32.5 billion, while analysts were forecasting $32.3 billion.

    Daily active users, which edged up 3% to 1.98 billion, were in line with analysts’ projections of 1.98 billion for the quarter.

    “While we face near-term challenges on revenue, the fundamentals are there for a return to stronger revenue growth,” Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said in a statement announcing the results. “We’re approaching 2023 with a focus on prioritization and efficiency that will help us navigate the current environment and emerge an even stronger company.”

    In prepared comments, Meta’s departing chief financial officer David Wehner said it is “making significant changes across the board to operate more efficiently. We are holding some teams flat in terms of headcount, shrinking others and investing headcount growth only in our highest priorities. As a result, we expect headcount at the end of 2023 will be approximately in-line with third-quarter 2022 levels.”

    Shares in Meta plunged nearly 20% in after-hours trading, which would put it at levels the stock has not seen since 2016 if the decline were to last into Thursday’s regular trading session. Meta’s stock has been among the worst in tech this year, crashing and burning 61% so far, while the broader S&P 500 index 
    SPX,
    -0.74%

    has declined 19% in 2022.

    After closing with a 5.6% decline at $129.82, Meta shares cratered to less than $115 in after-hours trading; shares have not traded at that level in a regular session since the end of 2016, and have not closed that low since July 2016.

    “Meta is on shaky legs when it comes to the current state of its business,” Insider Intelligence analyst Debra Aho Williamson said in a note late Wednesday. “Mark Zuckerberg’s decision to focus his company on the future promise of the metaverse took his attention away from the unfortunate realities of today: Meta is under incredible pressure from weakening worldwide economic conditions, challenges with Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency policy, and competition from other companies, including TikTok, for users and revenue.”

    In a conference call outlining the results, Wehner pointed out softness in advertising among buyers in online commerce, gaming and financial services.

    Meta’s mess of a quarter came a day after Alphabet Inc.’s
    GOOGL,
    -9.14%

    GOOG,
    -9.63%

    Google reported disappointing ad sales — it missed FactSet analyst estimates by $2 billion — and warned of a deepening pullback in online ad spending. Last week, Snap Inc.
    SNAP,
    -0.21%

    posted slackening ad revenue that sent its shares tumbling more than 25%.

    Read more: Google ad sales take a hit and widely miss estimates, Alphabet stock drops 6%

    Meta announced the results two days after a hellacious Monday, when a major shareholder chastised its metaverse strategy and called for a 20% reduction in payroll costs, as well as a Bank of America note that downgraded the stock.

    Read more: Scathing Meta shareholder’s letter calls for layoffs, less spending on metaverse

    While acknowledging that some people object to Meta’s multibillion-dollar investment in the metaverse, Zuckerberg believes the investment will ultimately prove to be vitally important to Meta’s — and tech’s — future, he said in the conference call.

    Meta executives have blamed inflation, a decline in ad sales, the war in Ukraine, supply-chain issues, increased competition from services such as TikTok, and — most significantly — wrenching changes Apple Inc.  
    AAPL,
    -1.96%

    made to its mobile operating system that make it more difficult for apps to track consumers in ads.

    “We continue to see strategic diversification away from Meta by many advertisers, largely due to stubbornly high CPMs relative to other social platforms and persistent challenges in performance measurement,” Josh Brisco, group vice president of acquisition media at search-engine marketing company Tinuiti, told MarketWatch.

    One factor is a 13% decline in traffic to the Facebook web page in September, year-over-year, according to new report from Similarweb
    SMWB,
    -0.47%
    .
    “It’s been down all year, which makes you wonder if they’re going in too many directions — social media, the metaverse, Reels — and whether they are no longer the flavor of the month with competition from TikTok,” David Carr, senior insights manager at Similarweb, told MarketWatch.

    “First and foremost, the discussion needs to pivot to how to build an engaged community of users,” Alex Howland, president and founder of Virbela, which builds virtual worlds, told MarketWatch. “And for that, the metaverse must improve or compliment real-world experiences in some way so that people find value and keep coming back.”

    “Brands have to be focused on what is paying the bills now,” Mike Herrick, senior vice president of technology at Airship, an app-experience platform, told MarketWatch. “Metaverse is going to happen, but not during the life of this recession.”

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  • Google ad sales take a hit and widely miss estimates, Alphabet stock drops 6%

    Google ad sales take a hit and widely miss estimates, Alphabet stock drops 6%

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    Alphabet Inc. is feeling the sting of a downturn in digital-ad spending. Google’s parent company reported just 6% sales growth year-over-year Tuesday and missed widely on its advertising revenue, pushing shares down in extended trading.

    Alphabet 
    GOOGL,
    +1.91%

     
    GOOG,
    +1.90%

     reported net income of $13.9 billion, or $1.06 a share, in its fiscal third quarter, compared with net income of $1.40 a share in the same quarter a year ago. Total revenue improved a middling 6% to $69.1 billion from $61.88 billion a year ago, the slowest year-over-year growth since sales declined in June 2020, while revenue after removing traffic-acquisition costs was $57.3 billion, compared with $53.6 billion in the year-ago period.

    Analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated net income of $1.26 a share on ex-TAC revenue of $58.2 billion and overall revenue of $71 billion. Alphabet shares slipped more than 6% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, after closing with a 2% increase at $104.48.

    The results, which missed in several key product categories, further rattled investors, already spooked by poor quarterly results last week from Snap Inc. 
    SNAP,
    +15.52%
    .
    Facebook parent company Meta Platforms Inc. 
    META,
    +6.01%

    is scheduled to report its third-quarter results Wednesday.

    Alphabet Chief Executive Sundar Pichai acknowledged the shortfall in ad revenue during a conference call with analysts. He vowed to take several measures, including a sharpened focus on products that improve search through artificial intelligence and to scale back hiring and other operating expenses.

    “There is no question we are operating in an uncertain environment,” Alphabet Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said on the call, noting reductions in ad spending by financial services that deepened during the third quarter.

    Google’s total advertising sales improved to $54.5 billion from $53.13 billion a year ago, but badly missed analysts’ average expectations for $56.58 billion. Search was $39.5 billion, compared with $37.93 billion last year. YouTube ad sales slipped to $7.07 billion from $7.21 billion a year ago.

    “When Google stumbles, it’s a bad omen for digital advertising at large,” Insider Intelligence analyst Evelyn Mitchell said. “Not only did Google miss analyst expectations for topline revenue, YouTube ad revenues shrank for the first time since Google started reporting YouTube earnings separately in Q4 2019, due in large part to persistent competition in streaming and short video.”

    Google’s Cloud revenue did climb to $6.9 billion from $4.99 billion; Google Cloud is believed to be third in cloud sales behind rivals Amazon.com Inc. 
    AMZN,
    +0.65%

    and Microsoft Corp. 
    MSFT,
    +1.38%
    .

    As is its customary practice, Alphabet did not disclose fourth-quarter guidance. But Alphabet Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat cautioned during the analyst call that the company faces “tough comps” in the current fourth quarter. Last year, Alphabet raked in $75.3 billion in Q4 revenue.

    Google’s stock has skidded 28% so far this year. The broader S&P 500 index 
    SPX,
    +1.63%

    is down 19% in 2022.

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  • Stocks are having a stellar October. Why the bear-market rally may have more room to run.

    Stocks are having a stellar October. Why the bear-market rally may have more room to run.

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    An earlier version of this story misstated the date of the U.S. midterm elections. They will be held Nov. 8, not Nov. 9.

    Despite a raft of risky events that investors must face down over the coming weeks, some on Wall Street believe that the latest bear-market rally in stocks has more room to run.

    Although the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.50%
    ,
    Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.97%

    and Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +16.23%

    remain mired in bear markets, stocks have been bouncing back from the “oversold” levels when the major indexes fell to their lowest levels in two years. Bear markets are known for sharp bounces, such as the rebound that took the S&P 500 up more than 17% from its mid-June low before sliding back down to set a new 2022 low on Oct. 12.

    With that said, here are a few things for investors to keep in mind.

    There’s plenty of event risk facing markets

    On top of a deluge of corporate earnings this week, including some of the biggest megacap tech stocks like Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +1.07%

    and Amazom.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.64%
    ,
    investors will also receive some key economic data reports over the next couple of weeks — including a reading from the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Friday, and the October jobs numbers, set to be released on Nov. 4.

    Beyond that, there’s also the Fed’s next policy meeting that concludes on Nov. 2. The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates by another 75 basis points, the fourth “jumbo” hike this year.

    Midterm U.S. elections, which will determine which party controls the House and Senate in the U.S. are slated to take place Nov. 8.

    Investors are still trying to parse the Fed’s latest messaging shift

    Investors cheered what some market watchers described as a coordinated shift in messaging from the Fed last week, conveyed via an Oct. 21 report from The Wall Street Journal that indicated the size of a December Fed rate increase would be up for debate, along with comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.

    Still, the Fed isn’t expected to materially pivot any time soon.

    Because the fact remains: there’s plenty of froth that needs to be squeezed out of markets after nearly two years of extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus unleashed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

    “It’s easier to inflate a bubble than to pop it, and I’m not using the term ‘bubble’ facetiously,” he said during a phone interview with MarketWatch.

    Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Merion Capital Group, played down the impact of the Fed’s latest “coordinated” shift in guidance during an interview with MarketWatch, saying the impact on the terminal fed-funds rate is relatively immaterial.

    Fed-funds futures traders anticipate the upper end of the central bank’s key target rate will rise to 5% before the end of the first quarter of next year, and remain there potentially into the fourth quarter, although an earlier cut wouldn’t be a complete surprise, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

    Market technicians believe stocks might move a little higher

    So far, October isn’t shaping up to be anything like September, when stocks fell 9.3% to polish off the worst first nine months of a calendar year in two decades.

    Instead, the S&P 500 has already risen more than 5.5% since the start of October despite briefly crashing to its lowest intraday level in more than two years following the release of the September consumer-price index report earlier this month.

    Read: ‘Bear killers’ and crashes: What investors need to know about October’s complicated stock-market history

    Technical indicators suggest the S&P 500 can continue to build on last week’s gain, said Katie Stockton, a market strategist at Fairlead Strategies, in a note she shared with clients and MarketWatch.

    According to her, the next key level to watch out for on the S&P 500 is north of 3,900, more than 100 points above where the index closed on Monday.

    “Short-term momentum remains to the upside within the context of the year-to-date downtrend. Support near 3,505 was a natural staging ground for a relief rally, and initial resistance is near 3,914,” she said.

    A key bear sees a tradeable opportunity

    Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer, has been one of Wall Street’s most outspoken bears for more than a year now.

    But in a note to clients early this week, he reiterated that stocks were looking ripe for a bounce.

    “Last week’s tactical bullish call was met with doubt from clients, which means there is still upside as we transition from Fire to Ice — falling inflation expectations can lead to lower rates and higher stock prices in the absence of capitulation from companies on 2023 EPS guidance,” Wilson said.

    This earnings season is off to an good start

    At this point, it’s safe to say that the third-quarter earnings season has vanquished fears that the Fed’s interest-rate hikes and gnawing inflation had already dramatically eroded profit margins, market strategists said.

    The quality of earnings reported already has surpassed some of the early “whisper numbers” bandied about by traders and strategists, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

    In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings 5.4% above expectations, according to data from Refinitiv shared with the media on Monday. This compares to a long-term average — since 1994 — of 4.1%.

    However, when the energy sector is removed from the equation, expectations seem much more grim. The blended year-to-year earnings estimate for the third quarter is -3.6%, according to the Refinitiv data.

    While investors are still waiting on earnings from roughly three-quarters of S&P 500 firms, according to FactSet data, some — like Morgan Stanley’s Wilson — are already looking toward next year as they expect the outlook for profits will darken substantially, possibly leading to an earnings recession — when corporate earnings shrink for two quarters in a row.

    The outlook for the global economy remains dim

    Speaking of energy, crude oil prices are flashing an ominous warning about expectations for the global economy.

    “A lot of the weak oil reflects expectations that the global economy will be in recession and near recession,” said Steve Englander, global head of G-10 currency strategy at Standard Chartered.

    West Texas Intermediate crude-oil futures
    CLZ22,
    +0.48%

     settled lower on Monday, as lackluster import data from China and the end of the Communist Party’s leadership conference hinted at softening demand in the world’s second-largest oil consumer. Prices continued to decline early Tuesday.

    Be wary of ‘fighting the Fed’

    Investors remain worried that “something else might break” in markets, as MarketWatch reported over the weekend.

    It’s possible that such fears inspired the Fed’s apparent guidance shift, Sosnick said. But the fact remains: anybody buying stocks while the Fed is aggressively tightening monetary policy should be prepared to tolerate losses, at least in the near term, he said.

    “Simplest thing of all is: ‘don’t fight the Fed.’ If you’re trying to buy stocks now, what are you doing? It doesn’t mean you can’t buy stocks overall. But it means you’re fighting an uphill battle,” he said.

    The VIX is signaling that investors expect a wild ride

    Even as stocks extended their October rebound for another session on Monday, the Cboe Volatility Index
    VIX,
    -4.49%

    remained conspicuously elevated, reflecting the notion that investors don’t anticipate the market’s wild ride will end any time soon.

    The Wall Street “fear gauge” finished Monday’s session up 0.5% at 29.85 and it was trading just shy of the 30 level early Tuesday.

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  • U.S. stock futures give up early gains after Wall Street’s best week since June

    U.S. stock futures give up early gains after Wall Street’s best week since June

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    U.S. stock futures gave up strong early-session gains overnight after Wall Street notched its best week since June.

    After initially surging about 300 points, or 1% on Sunday evening, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
    YM00,
    -0.02%

    were last about flat at midnight Eastern, while S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    +0.05%

    and Nasdaq-100 futures
    NQ00,
    +0.16%

    similarly gave up sharp early gains.

    The U.S. Dollar Index
    DXY,
    +0.19%

    nudged higher, while the British pound
    GBPUSD,
    +0.12%

    surrendered much of an afternoon rally fueled by the possibility that Rishi Sunak will be Britain’s next prime minister, after Boris Johnson bowed out of the running. Crude prices
    CL.1,
    -0.55%

    ticked slightly higher Sunday.

    On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +2.47%

     gained 748.97 points, or 2.5%, to close at 31,082.56. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.37%

     climbed 86.97 points, or 2.4%, to finish at 3,752.75, and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -0.81%

     rose 244.87 points, or 2.3%, to end at 10,859.72.

    The three major indexes scored their biggest weekly percentage gains since June last week. For the week, the Dow rose 4.9%, the S&P 500 gained 4.7% and the Nasdaq advanced 5.2%.  Yields on 10-year Treasury notes
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.156%

    ended Friday at 4.228%.

    Investors were heartened by reports that the Fed may back off slightly from its aggressive rate-hiking policy later this year.

    The upcoming week is the busiest of the third-quarter earnings season, with 165 S&P 500 companies, including 12 Dow components reporting. That includes earnings from Big Tech companies Alphabet
    GOOGL,
    +1.16%
    ,
    Amazon
    AMZN,
    +3.53%
    ,
    Apple
    AAPL,
    +2.71%
    ,
    Meta
    META,
    -1.16%

    and Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +2.53%
    .

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  • Snap investors, do you still trust Evan Spiegel?

    Snap investors, do you still trust Evan Spiegel?

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    When Snap Inc. went public in 2017, this column boiled down the entire investment opportunity to one, simple question: Do you trust Evan Spiegel?

    As Snap
    SNAP,
    -0.64%

    stock heads toward its lowest prices since March 2020, and potentially even lower, that question is even more important, and answering “yes” should be even harder.

    Three months ago, amid the beginning of a huge slowdown in the ad business, Snap initiated a unique dividend meant to ensure that the founders maintained control of the company, even if they sold their stock — protecting themselves. Then in August, news came that Snap was laying off one in five employees. As Snap again reported disappointing results Thursday and saw the stock plunge again, the company decided now was the time to initiate a stock buyback plan, promising to spend up to $500 million to offset the dilution from employee stock plans — in the past nine months, Snap has spent $937 million on stock-based compensation.

    On the face of it, this seems like an investor-friendly approach — Barron’s pointed out earlier this year that investors were suffering while employees were faring better with the hefty stock-comp plans. But it’s also worth pointing out who the biggest investors in Snap are: Spiegel and his co-founder Bobby Murphy.

    As the company’s largest individual shareholders, Spiegel and Murphy are among the key beneficiaries of Snap’s plans to buy back stock, which usually leads to a boost in the stock price. Those two still control over 99% of the voting power of the company’s capital stock, and as the parent of Snapchat reminded investors in its annual report, “Mr. Spiegel alone can exercise voting control over a majority of our outstanding capital stock.”

    Shares of Snap tumbled an additional 25% to just under $8 in after-hours trading, putting them near the lowest prices since March 2020. On Thursday, the company ended regular trading hours with a market capitalization of around $17.91 billion, but that was headed toward $13 billion with the after-hours collapse.

    Besides protecting themselves and their investment, Snap’s executives have shown little ability to head off big issues, nor offer any worthwhile solutions to the current ad downturn. In the third quarter, its revenue grew a paltry 6%, down from the most recent second-quarter revenue growth of 13%. Snap appears to be in a steady revenue slowdown, from its peak growth of 116% in the June 2021 quarter.

    Snap has blamed both privacy changes that Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    -0.33%

    made to the iPhone that affected ad tracking, and more recently, the macroeconomic advertising climate, while avoiding one of the biggest factors — the rise of TikTok. Top executives didn’t seem to see any of those challenges coming early enough, and did not do enough about them once they did.

    “The company was slow to react — or acknowledge — the significant headwinds faced by privacy initiatives, compounded by competition, and more recently macro headwinds,” Colin Sebastian, an analyst at Baird Equity Research, wrote in a note.

    The competition factor, mostly from China’s TikTok, was addressed briefly on the company’s call with analysts, but was not really acknowledged by Snap leaders.

    “We believe that the differentiated nature of our service is what’s contributing to the daily active-user growth, which grew 19% year-over-year to 363 million daily active users,” Spiegel said. “In terms of the content specifically, I think there’s a lot of headroom, of course, to continue to grow content engagement.”

    In the company’s shareholder letter, Spiegel acknowledged that the results were “far from our aspirations,” and that Snap would use this time of reduced demand “to pull forward and accelerate changes to our advertising platform and auction dynamics that we believe will deliver better results for our advertising partner.”

    Spiegel is known for going by his own instincts and not listening to other executives, employees or even market forces, as was noted in a Wall Street Journal report that detailed his push for an unsuccessful product redesign in 2018. While the company appeared to have snapped back from that debacle last year, it is now facing a fiercer rival for young people on social media in the form of TikTok.

    Investors who still have patience to wait and see if this stock ever recovers will also have to stick around with Spiegel — and as our IPO column noted — Snap is unapologetically founder-controlled. No change at the top can ever come unless it is initiated by Spiegel himself. Investors have to make a leap of faith that Spiegel can turn things around, but they need to remember that Spiegel usually thinks about himself first.

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  • Snap stock plummets more than 25% as online advertising continues to struggle

    Snap stock plummets more than 25% as online advertising continues to struggle

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    A bruising year for Snap Inc.’s shares worsened Thursday, as the stock plummeted more than 20% in after-hours trading as executives launched the company’s first major share-repurchase program amid revenue issues in a poor environment for online advertising.

    Snap
    SNAP,
    -0.64%

    executives revealed that revenue increased less than 6% year-over-year in the quarter — its slowest quarterly grow ever recorded — and said that the holiday season is shaping up similarly, with sales increasing 9% so far in the quarter. The social-media company, which laid off roughly 20% of its staff this summer in response to the issues, also declined to provide a full forecast for the important fourth quarter.

    “Our revenue growth continued to decelerate in Q3 and continues to be impacted by a number of factors we have noted throughout the past year, including platform policy changes, macroeconomic headwinds, and increased competition,” executives said in a letter to shareholders, outlining the results. “We are finding that our advertising partners across many industries are decreasing their marketing budgets, especially in the face of operating environment headwinds, inflation-driven cost pressures, and rising costs of capital.”

    “Forward-looking revenue visibility remains incredibly challenging, and this is compounded by the fact that revenue in Q4 is typically disproportionately generated in the back half of the quarter, which further reduces our visibility,” executives explained about the lack of guidance in a letter to investors.

    The board did approve a $500 million share repurchase, a first for the young company. In a news release, executives said that the move was meant “to opportunistically offset a portion of the dilution related to the issuance of restricted stock units to employees as part of the overall compensation program designed to foster an ownership culture.”

    Snap’s results — the first among the major tech companies who rely heavily on digital advertising — likely portend even more turbulent times ahead for Alphabet Inc.’s 
    GOOGL,
    +0.34%

     
    GOOG,
    +0.24%

    Google, Facebook parent company Meta Platforms Inc. 
    META,
    -1.28%
    ,
     Twitter Inc. 
    TWTR,
    +1.18%
    ,
     Pinterest Inc. 
    PINS,
    -0.30%

    and others in the grip of inflation, a war in Ukraine, foreign-exchange worries and a widening recession.

    Snap’s desultory news sent shares tumbling in extended trading for Pinterest (-8%), Trade Desk Inc.
    TTD,
    +2.26%

    (-5), Meta (-4%) and Google (-3%).

    Deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have left advertisers with little choice but to delay or cancel buys. At the same time, intensifying competition from the likes of TikTok and others has deepened headwinds.

    “As a smaller player, Snap is more susceptible but no platform is immune,” Insider Intelligence analyst Jasmine Enberg told MarketWatch. “I expect more of the same results next week” when Google and Meta report, she added.

    Snap reported a third-quarter net loss of $359.5 million, or 22 cents a share, compared with a loss of 5 cents a share a year ago. Analysts on average were expecting a loss of 24 cents a share.

    Snap’s sales increased less than 6% to $1.13 billion, barely falling short of Street estimates of $1.14 billion. Daily active users rose 19% to 363 million. FactSet analysts had modeled 358.2 million.

    Snap shares initially fell more than 20% in after-hours trading. They closed the regular trading session down 0.6% to $10.79. Shares of Snap have nosedived 77% this year, while the S&P 500 index 
    SPX,
    -0.80%

    is down 23%.

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  • Netflix Adds a Better-Than-Expected 2.4 Million Subscribers

    Netflix Adds a Better-Than-Expected 2.4 Million Subscribers

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    Netflix


    shares were trading sharply higher after the streaming giant posted better-than-expected subscriber growth for the third quarter.

    The company added 2.41 million net new subscribers in the quarter, beating its own forecast of 1 million additions. Netflix (ticker: NFLX) said it expects to add another 4.5 million subscribers in the December quarter.

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  • These 11 stocks can lead your portfolio’s rebound after the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and a market bottom next year

    These 11 stocks can lead your portfolio’s rebound after the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and a market bottom next year

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    This may surprise you: Wall Street analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 8% during 2023, despite all the buzz about a possible recession as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to quell inflation.

    Ken Laudan, a portfolio manager at Kornitzer Capital Management in Mission, Kan., isn’t buying it. He expects an “earnings recession” for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.78%

    — that is, a decline in profits of around 10%. But he also expects that decline to set up a bottom for the stock market.

    Laudan’s predictions for the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and bottom

    Laudan, who manages the $83 million Buffalo Large Cap Fund
    BUFEX,
    -2.86%

    and co-manages the $905 million Buffalo Discovery Fund
    BUFTX,
    -2.82%
    ,
    said during an interview: “It is not unusual to see a 20% hit [to earnings] in a modest recession. Margins have peaked.”

    The consensus among analysts polled by FactSet is for weighted aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 to total $238.23 a share in 2023, which would be an 8% increase from the current 2022 EPS estimate of $220.63.

    Laudan said his base case for 2023 is for earnings of about $195 to $200 a share and for that decline in earnings (about 9% to 12% from the current consensus estimate for 2022) to be “coupled with an economic recession of some sort.”

    He expects the Wall Street estimates to come down, and said that “once Street estimates get to $205 or $210, I think stocks will take off.”

    He went further, saying “things get really interesting at 3200 or 3300 on the S&P.” The S&P 500 closed at 3583.07 on Oct. 14, a decline of 24.8% for 2022, excluding dividends.

    Laudan said the Buffalo Large Cap Fund was about 7% in cash, as he was keeping some powder dry for stock purchases at lower prices, adding that he has been “fairly defensive” since October 2021 and was continuing to focus on “steady dividend-paying companies with strong balance sheets.”

    Leaders for the stock market’s recovery

    After the market hits bottom, Laudan expects a recovery for stocks to begin next year, as “valuations will discount and respond more quickly than the earnings will.”

    He expects “long-duration technology growth stocks” to lead the rally, because “they got hit first.” When asked if Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +6.14%

    and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    +3.69%

    were good examples, in light of the broad decline for semiconductor stocks and because both are held by the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, Laudan said: “They led us down and they will bounce first.”

    Laudan said his “largest tech holding” is ASML Holding N.V.
    ASML,
    +3.79%
    ,
    which provides equipment and systems used to fabricate computer chips.

    Among the largest tech-oriented companies, the Buffalo Large Cap fund also holds shares of Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +3.09%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +3.88%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +6.63%

    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    +3.91%

    GOOGL,
    +3.73%
    .

    Laudan also said he had been “overweight’ in UnitedHealth Group Inc.
    UNH,
    +1.77%
    ,
    Danaher Corp.
    DHR,
    +2.64%

    and Linde PLC
    LIN,
    +2.25%

    recently and had taken advantage of the decline in Adobe Inc.’s
    ADBE,
    +2.32%

    price following the announcement of its $20 billion acquisition of Figma, by scooping up more shares.

    Summarizing the declines

    To illustrate what a brutal year it has been for semiconductor stocks, the iShares Semiconductor ETF
    SOXX,
    +2.12%
    ,
    which tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Index
    SOX,
    +2.29%

    of 30 U.S.-listed chip makers and related equipment manufacturers, has dropped 44% this year. Then again, SOXX had risen 38% over the past three years and 81% for five years, underlining the importance of long-term thinking for stock investors, even during this terrible bear market for this particular tech space.

    Here’s a summary of changes in stock prices (again, excluding dividends) and forward price-to-forward-earnings valuations during 2022 through Oct. 14 for every stock mentioned in this article. The stocks are sorted alphabetically:

    Company

    Ticker

    2022 price change

    Forward P/E

    Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL,
    +3.09%
    -22%

    22.2

    30.2

    Adobe Inc.

    ADBE,
    +2.32%
    -49%

    19.4

    40.5

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    +6.63%
    -36%

    62.1

    64.9

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD,
    +3.69%
    -61%

    14.7

    43.1

    ASML Holding N.V. ADR

    ASML,
    +3.79%
    -52%

    22.7

    41.2

    Danaher Corp.

    DHR,
    +2.64%
    -23%

    24.3

    32.1

    Alphabet Inc. Class C

    GOOG,
    +3.91%
    -33%

    17.5

    25.3

    Linde PLC

    LIN,
    +2.25%
    -21%

    22.2

    29.6

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    +3.88%
    -32%

    22.5

    34.0

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    +6.14%
    -62%

    28.9

    58.0

    UnitedHealth Group Inc.

    UNH,
    +1.77%
    2%

    21.5

    23.2

    Source: FactSet

    You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 declined to 16.9 as of the close on Oct. 14 from 24.5 at the end of 2021, while the forward P/E for SOXX declined to 13.2 from 27.1.

    Don’t miss: This is how high interest rates might rise, and what could scare the Federal Reserve into a policy pivot

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  • Infowars host Alex Jones ordered by Connecticut jury to pay $965 million over Sandy Hook ‘hoax’ claims

    Infowars host Alex Jones ordered by Connecticut jury to pay $965 million over Sandy Hook ‘hoax’ claims

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    WATERBURY, Conn. (AP) — The conspiracy theorist Alex Jones should pay $965 million to people who suffered from his false claim that the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting was a hoax, a jury in Connecticut decided Wednesday.

    The verdict is the second big judgment against the Infowars host over his relentless promotion of the lie that the 2012 massacre never happened, and that the grieving families seen in news coverage were actors hired as part of a plot to take away people’s guns.

    It came in a lawsuit filed by the relatives of five children and three educators killed in the mass shooting, plus an FBI agent who was among the first responders to the scene. A Texas jury in August awarded nearly $50 million to the parents of another slain child.

    Experts testified that Jones’s audience swelled when he made Sandy Hook a topic on the show, as did his revenue from product sales.

    The Connecticut trial featured tearful testimony from parents and siblings of the victims, who told about how they were threatened and harassed for years by people who believed the lies told on Jones’s show.

    Strangers showed up at their homes to record them. People hurled abusive comments on social media. Erica Lafferty, the daughter of slain Sandy Hook principal Dawn Hochsprung, testified that people mailed rape threats to her house.

    Mark Barden told of how conspiracy theorists had urinated on the grave of his 7-year-old son, Daniel, and threatened to dig up the coffin.

    Superior Court Judge Barbara Bellis discusses a question from the jury with attorneys on Tuesday.


    H. John Voorhees III/Hearst Connecticut Media/AP

    Testifying during the trial, Jones acknowledged he had been wrong about Sandy Hook. The shooting was real, he said. But both in the courtroom and on his show, he was defiant.

    He called the proceedings a “kangaroo court,” mocked the judge, called the plaintiffs’ lawyer an ambulance chaser and labeled the case an affront to free speech rights. He claimed it was a conspiracy by Democrats and the media to silence him and put him out of business. “I’ve already said ‘I’m sorry’ hundreds of times, and I’m done saying I’m sorry,” he said during his testimony.

    Twenty children and six adults died in the shooting on Dec. 14, 2012. The defamation trial was held at a courthouse in Waterbury, about 20 miles from Newtown, where the attack took place.

    The lawsuit accused Jones and Infowars’ private parent company, Free Speech Systems, of using the mass killing to build his audience and make millions of dollars.

    Experts testified that Jones’s audience swelled when he made Sandy Hook a topic on the show, as did his revenue from product sales.

    Don’t miss: Alex Jones’s audience and Infowars’ revenue grew as Jones alleged Sandy Hook school massacre was a hoax

    Also: Alex Jones has created a ‘living hell’ of harassment and death threats, testify Sandy Hook school parents

    In both the Texas lawsuit and the one in Connecticut, judges found the company liable for damages by default after Jones failed to cooperate with court rules on sharing evidence, including failing to turn over records that might have showed whether Infowars had profited from knowingly spreading misinformation about mass killings.

    See: Texas jury orders Alex Jones to pay more than $49 million in damages in Sandy Hook case

    Because he was already found liable, Jones was barred from mentioning free-speech rights and other topics during his testimony.

    Jones now faces a third trial, in Texas around the end of the year, in a lawsuit filed by the parents of another child killed in the shooting.

    It is unclear how much of the verdicts Jones can afford to pay.

    During the trial in Texas, he testified he couldn’t afford any judgment over $2 million. Free Speech Systems has filed for bankruptcy protection. But an economist testified in the Texas proceeding that Jones and his company were worth as much as $270 million.

    Read on: Alex Jones’s Infowars picks new CRO for bankruptcy

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  • Here’s How to Know If Your Startup Is Ready for PR

    Here’s How to Know If Your Startup Is Ready for PR

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    At some point, every startup founder comes to the idea that they may need to integrate PR into the proliferation strategy of their company. Indeed, with the right approach, PR efforts can easily become a powerful tool to accelerate growth. The list of goals that can be achieved through a thought-out campaign includes the following:

    • Attracting investors to improve visibility for securing funding

    • Providing information about a startup’s products or services

    • Building awareness among potential customers and partners

    • Creating a favorable image for a company

    However, all entrepreneurs should keep in mind that PR is not a magic pill. It works best under certain conditions and with a deliberate approach. Before turning to this tool, you need to evaluate its necessity for your company and the preparedness of your business for starting a public relations campaign.

    Related: Is Your Startup Ready For Professional PR?

    How to tell if your startup needs PR

    Before turning to PR, make sure that your company needs it in the first place. Analyze the market and your product, and look at the goals you want to attain. PR will definitely be beneficial for your venture if:

    • Your startup operates within a highly competitive market;

    • Reputation and trust are critical for your business;

    • Your product is complex and expensive, and people can’t experience it before purchasing;

    • You are looking for new partnerships;

    • You are looking for investors;

    • You want to expand your customer base.

    But even if your company meets all the above criteria, you need to think twice to be certain that PR and are the best way to address these challenges for your startup. It often happens that founders expect public relations to be a counterpart of and a solution for direct sales. In reality, the first and main purpose of PR is to gain a reputation. impacts sales — but only indirectly and when it works in synergy with marketing.

    Related: What Startups Should Do Differently When It Comes to PR

    How to make sure your startup is ready for PR

    Unfortunately, it’s not a rare situation when startup founders underestimate the efforts required for high-quality publicity management. As a result, they initiate a PR campaign too early and get disappointing results. There’s no sense in rashness. Take time to assess whether your startup is ready to launch a PR campaign. Here’s a checklist for that below:

    • Your product or service is fully developed and works with no mistakes: When you start pitching your company to mass media, it’s important that people can try what you have to offer and give it positive feedback.

    • You can clearly state the goals that you want to achieve with PR: There are different PR tactics and strategies for different aims. Approaches may vary even for different funding stages. Doing PR without precise goals is a waste of time and money and won’t help anyone.

    • You already have a brief clear description of your product or service and can explain how your company differs from competitors: Journalists, potential clients and investors should immediately understand what they are looking at and why it’s unique and worth their attention. Also, don’t forget to translate the description and other texts to languages of all the markets in which you are planning to launch.

    • You’ve articulated your startup’s mission, vision and key messages: Everybody loves a company with a mission and a visionary. It makes a startup more memorable.

    • You’ve found the appropriate tone of voice and brought all the text materials to a consistent format: This includes all the texts that can be found on your website, accounts and in newsletters. If a text goes public, it should agree with your strategy.

    • The company’s social media accounts and blogs are aligned with the current message and explain who you are and what you do: Journalists, potential customers, existing customers and investors will surely find those and analyze them as any other media publication would.

    • The speakers who represent your company have their social media profiles properly worked through: Today, any given person can research every aspect of your business that they are able to find online. So, use every little chance to make a favorable impression and explain the importance of it to the team.

    • You’ve decided on the positioning of each speaker: When you have a pool of media representatives for your startup (even if it’s only your CEO), it’s necessary to decide what topics they will be covering as experts and clearly communicate them to reporters and editors.

    • The speakers have appropriate photographs shot by a professional photographer and a short bio: These things may be requested by journalists when they prepare publications about your company. It always feels highly satisfactory when the people of your startup are properly introduced in an interview.

    • You are ready to share some exclusive data and analytics: It helps to build credibility, especially in the eyes of journalists who usually have no desire to copy and paste information that has been published already and always strive to impress their audience with something new.

    Related: Is Your Brand Ready for Public Relations and Press?

    Smaller startups may hesitate to hire a public relations agency because most agencies’ retainer fees look overwhelming for such companies. However, it’s hard for founders to control the crucial operations of a venture and simultaneously bootstrap their PR efforts. No effective communication with the media can exist in such circumstances.

    A well-suited option may be to look for a PR agency that focuses exclusively on startups, including early-stage ones. Usually, such agencies are deeply aware of the needs and pains of their clients and offer reasonable contract terms. You need to find a KPI-driven PR firm —because, with them, you’ll have guaranteed results and be able to adjust your KPI requirements to your budget. An early-stage startup can agree to the minimal KPI and increase them later, when they can afford to do so.

    Perhaps the most crucial thing to remember is that PR, being an effective tool, requires time to achieve the needed outcome and brings no instant success. However, with the right approach, it can be powerful and help early-stage startups achieve their key goals.

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    Katerina Antonova

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  • Asian stocks moving lower in wake of latest volatile session on Wall Street

    Asian stocks moving lower in wake of latest volatile session on Wall Street

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    TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly lower on Wednesday following another volatile day on Wall Street, as traders braced for updates on inflation and corporate earnings.

    Benchmarks fell in Tokyo
    NIY00,
    +0.09%
    ,
    Shanghai
    SHCOMP,
    -1.12%

    and Hong Kong
    HSI00,
    -2.90%

    but rose in Sydney.

    South Korea’s Kospi
    180721,
    +0.34%

    lost 0.1% to 2,189.86 after the Bank of Korea raised its key rate by 0.5 percentage point, amid the backdrop of Fed rate hikes in the U.S. and growing inflation risks from the weak won and rebounding global oil prices.

    In currency trading the Japanese yen declined to a 24-year low against the U.S. dollar
    JPYUSD,
    -0.24

    at 146 yen-levels, raising expectations of another intervention by Tokyo to prop up the yen. By midday the dollar
    USDJPY,
    +0.24%

    was at 146.17 yen, up from 145.80 late Tuesday. The euro
    EURUSD,
    +0.12%

    cost 96.96 cents, inching down from 97.07 yen.

    The weaker yen raises costs for both consumers and businesses who rely on imports of food, fuel and other needs, but the bigger purchasing power for foreign currencies is expected to boost tourism. Japan reopened fully to individual tourist travel this week after being closed for more than two years because of the pandemic.

    Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 0.2% to 26,348.73 in morning trading. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200
    ASX10000,
    -1.54%

    gained nearly 0.2% to 6,656.00. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 2% to 16,491.39, while the Shanghai Composite shed 1.2% to 2,943.24.

    On Tuesday, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.65%

    fell 0.7%, marking its fifth straight loss, closing at 3,588.84. The Nasdaq
    COMP,
    -1.10%

    dropped 1.1% to 10,426.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.12%

    added 0.1% to 29,239.19, while the Russell 2000 index
    RUT,
    +0.06%

    rose 1 point, or about 0.1%, to 1,692.92.

    Recession fears have been weighing heavily on markets as stubbornly hot inflation burns businesses and consumers. Economic growth has been slowing as consumers temper spending and the Federal Reserve and other central banks raise interest rates.

    The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 to 2.7%, down from the 2.9% it had estimated in July. The cut comes as Europe faces a particularly high risk of a recession with energy costs soaring amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    See: Global economy most vulnerable since COVID crisis, with housing market at potential ‘tipping point,’ IMF warns

    Wall Street is closely watching the Federal Reserve as it continues to aggressively raise its benchmark interest rate to make borrowing more expensive and slow economic growth. The goal is to cool inflation, but the strategy carries the risk of slowing the economy too much and pushing it into a recession.

    “The market desperately wants a reason for the Fed to be able to stop tightening and the data recently hasn’t given them that opening with respect to inflation,” said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at All Star Charts.

    Computer-chip manufacturers continued slipping in the wake of the U.S. government’s decision to tighten export controls on semiconductors and chip manufacturing equipment to China. Qualcomm
    QCOM,
    -3.99%

    fell 4%.

    See: Intel reportedly plans to lay off thousands of workers, with details potentially emerging alongside quarterly earnings

    Uber
    UBER,
    -10.42%

    fell 10.4% and Lyft
    LYFT,
    -12.02%

    slumped 12% following a proposal by the U.S. government that could give contract workers at ride-hailing and other gig economy companies full status as employees.

    The Fed will release minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday, possibly giving Wall Street more insight into its views on inflation and next steps.

    Investors still expect the Fed to raise its overnight rate by three-quarters of a percentage point next month, the fourth such increase. That’s triple the usual amount, and would bring the rate up to a range of 3.75% to 4%. It started the year at virtually zero.

    Rex Nutting: Leading indicators show inflation is slowing, but Fed policy makers are too busy looking in rearview mirror to notice

    The government will also release its report on wholesale prices Wednesday, providing an update on how inflation is hitting businesses. The closely watched report on consumer prices will be released on Thursday, and a report on retail sales is due Friday.

    “Everyone is still hoping that every inflation report will be the one that shows that pressure is alleviating,” Delwiche said.

    Wall Street is also gearing up for the start of the latest corporate earnings reporting season, which could provide a clearer picture of inflation’s impact.

    Among the companies reporting quarterly results this week: PepsiCo
    PEP,
    +0.48%
    ,
    Delta Air Lines
    DAL,
    -1.97%

    and Domino’s Pizza
    DPZ,
    -1.99%
    .
    Banks including Citigroup
    C,
    -2.76%

    and JPMorgan Chase
    JPM,
    -2.89%

    will also report results.

    In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude
    CL00,
    -0.75%

    lost 82 cents to $88.53 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. crude-oil prices fell 2% Tuesday. Brent crude
    BRN00,
    -0.56%
    ,
    the international pricing standard, fell 62 cents to $93.67 a barrel.

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  • Meet the 10 biggest megadonors for the 2022 midterm elections

    Meet the 10 biggest megadonors for the 2022 midterm elections

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    With four weeks until Election Day, congressional candidates are on track to break midterm fundraising records, having raised nearly $2.5 billion so far this cycle. That’s already 70% more than what was raised during the 2014 cycle and just $200 million shy of the total raised during the full 2018 cycle.

    This cycle has also seen record-shattering outside spending, topping $1 billion through the beginning of October, according to an OpenSecrets estimate.

    The increase in spending and fundraising is due in large part to the involvement of millionaire and billionaire megadonors who have sought to influence the outcome of an election in which both chambers of Congress are in play.

    “When megadonors pump millions of dollars into super PACs, they get to help call the shots,” said Michael Beckel, research director at Issue One, a nonpartisan political reform organization. “Massive spending from a megadonor can influence what issues are talked about on the campaign trail and in Congress.”

    Super PACs are independent political action committees that can raise unlimited sums of money but are not allowed to coordinate with a candidate or campaign. Due to contribution limits, such as those restricting individuals’ candidate contributions to $2,900 per election per candidate, most megadonor spending goes to super PACs.

    More context: These are the basics of campaign finance in 2020 — in two handy charts

    A MarketWatch analysis of Federal Election Commission data through the end of September shows that these 10 business moguls and philanthropists are the biggest federal-level donors this cycle.

    Read: These 3 races could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate in 2023

    And see: If this seat flips red, Republicans will have ‘probably won a relatively comfortable House majority’

    Top federal-level megadonors this cycle
    Rank

    Contributor

    Total Contributions

    For Republicans

    For Democrats

    Nonpartisan/Bipartisan

    1

    George Soros

    $128,782,000

    $0

    $128,782,000

    $0

    2

    Ken Griffin

    $50,955,800

    $50,955,800

    $0

    $0

    3

    Richard Uihlein

    $49,117,000

    $49,117,000

    $0

    $0

    4

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    $39,931,000

    $201,000

    $37,725,000

    $2,005,000

    5

    Jeff Yass

    $32,754,000

    $32,754,000

    $0

    $0

    6

    Peter Thiel

    $30,189,000

    $30,189,000

    $0

    $0

    7

    Fred Eychaner

    $22,343,000

    $0

    $22,343,000

    $0

    8

    Stephen Schwarzman

    $21,870,000

    $21,865,000

    $0

    $5,000

    9

    Larry Ellison

    $21,003,000

    $21,003,000

    $0

    $0

    10

    Ryan Salame

    $18,932,000

    $17,432,000

    $0

    $1,500,000

    Totals:

    $415,877,000

    $223,517,000

    $188,850,000

    $3,510,000

    Source: MarketWatch analysis of FEC data as of Sept. 30, 2022
    Note: Partisan breakdown includes non-party affiliated PACs with over 95% of their spending benefitting one party, data has been rounded to the nearest thousand

    Big spending by itself doesn’t automatically mean winning. There have been notable instances of the financially strongest candidates losing (such as crypto-backed House candidate Carrick Flynn earlier this year and billionaire Michael Bloomberg’s self-financed presidential bid) — but money can certainly help put a candidate on the right track.

    “Money alone doesn’t guarantee electoral success, but every candidate prefers to be the one with more money to spend,” Beckel said. He added: “Outside spending on behalf of a candidate isn’t a silver bullet that’s going to guarantee electoral success. But it goes a long way to boosting somebody’s name recognition, and to presenting them as a viable candidate — somebody who has the resources to run a competitive campaign.”

    Information about the spending by the top 10 donors this cycle has been compiled from MarketWatch’s analysis of FEC data and filings, super PAC websites and previously reported comments. Read on to find out who are the top 10 biggest donors this cycle.

    10. Ryan Salame — $19 million

    Ryan Salame, the co-CEO of FTX Digital Markets, a subsidiary of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, founded a hybrid PAC earlier this year called American Dream Federal Action. The vast majority ($15 million) of the $19 million Salame has spent this cycle has gone into bankrolling the PAC, which has spent $2.4 million in independent expenditures supporting Illinois Republican Rep. Rodney Davis, $2 million supporting Republican Senate candidate Katie Britt from Alabama, and $1.2 million each supporting Arkansas GOP Sen. John Boozman and Brad Finstad, a GOP congressional candidate in Minnesota.

    On its website, the PAC describes itself as “organization dedicated to electing forward-looking candidates — those who want to protect America’s long term economic and national security by advancing smart policy decisions now.” A representative for Salame didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    9. Lawrence Ellison — $21 million

    The co-founder of Oracle
    ORCL,
    +0.26%

    has similarly bankrolled a PAC this election cycle — giving a total $20 million to Opportunity Matters Fund Inc. The super PAC has largely held onto its funds so far, recent FEC records show, having $17 million cash on hand as of the end of August. Of the independent expenditures it has made this cycle, it spent the most on Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker ($1.3 million), Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson ($1.3 million) and North Carolina Senate candidate and current Republican Rep. Ted Budd ($1.1 million). A representative for Ellison didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    8. Stephen Schwarzman — $22 million

    Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman, the CEO of private-equity giant Blackstone
    BX,
    -2.41%
    ,
    is the eighth biggest donor at the federal level this cycle. In March, Schwarzman gave $10 million to both the Senate Leadership Fund and Congressional Leadership Fund, super PACs aimed at obtaining a Republican majority in the Senate and House, respectively. A representative for Schwarzman didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    7. Fred Eychaner — $22 million

    Fred Eychaner has also contributed $22 million so far this cycle, but unlike most of the spending on this list, his has been directed toward Democratic causes. The chairman of Chicago-based Newsweb Corporation has given $9 million to the House Majority PAC and $8 million to the Senate Majority PAC, as well as just under $1.5 million to the Democratic National Committee and several hundred thousands to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. A representative for Eychaner didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    6. Peter Thiel — $30 million

    Venture capitalist Peter Thiel was heavily involved in backing Ohio Republican J.D. Vance’s primary bid, giving $15 million in the spring to the Vance-aligned Protect Ohio Values PAC.

    The massive primary investment was “historic” and record-setting, according to Beckel, who added that Thiel’s involvement in the Ohio Senate primary could mark “a new chapter of how mega donors are choosing to play in politics.”

    “I think it’s become clear for a lot of megadonors that there are high stakes to a lot of primaries, and by spending in the primary, where there is typically lower turnout than in say, a statewide general election, they can get a lot of bang for their buck by investing in a primary election,” Beckel added.

    Thiel has indicated that he doesn’t intend to put any more money toward Vance’s bid as he reportedly believes the Ohio candidate is on track to win, and instead will focus his funding on Arizona Republican Blake Masters’ bid to oust Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in the final weeks leading up to the midterm election.

    Thiel, known for his roles in PayPal
    PYPL,
    -1.69%
    ,
    Palantir
    PLTR,
    -0.25%

    and Facebook
    META,
    -3.92%
    ,
    has also given a total $15 million to the Masters-aligned PAC, Saving Arizona, with his most recent contribution in July. Both Vance and Masters are venture capitalists, but Masters has worked with Thiel. He served as chief operating officer of Thiel Capital and president of the Thiel Foundation, and he co-authored a book on startups with Thiel in 2014. A representative for Thiel didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    5. Jeff Yass — $33 million

    Options trader Jeff Yass, who founded trading firm Susquehanna International Group, has contributed about $33 million on a federal level this cycle. Yass has given $15 million to the School Freedom Fund, or the equivalent of 97% of the PAC’s total fundraising. The group focuses on the issue of school choice, and its website states that some bureaucrats “hindered the development and education of our youth through school closures, mask mandates, critical race theory, and more.”

    Aside from the School Freedom Fund, Yass’ other biggest contributions are to the conservative Club for Action ($6.5 million), Kentucky Freedom ($5 million), Protect Freedom ($2 million) and Crypto Freedom ($1.9 million). A representative for Yass didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    4. Sam Bankman-Fried — $40 million

    Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and CEO of FTX, is the main funder behind Protect Our Future PAC, giving it $27 million of the $28 million it raised this cycle. 

    The organization says on its website that it focuses on promoting Democratic candidates championing pandemic preparedness and prevention “so this is the last time in our lifetime, and our children’s lifetimes, that we will face the devastation that has gripped communities across the U.S. since 2020.”

    The group spent more than $10 million supporting Democrat Carrick Flynn’s House bid in Oregon. Flynn lost his primary in May by 18 points despite his massive outside spending advantage. In addition to Flynn, the group has made over $1 million in independent expenditures each supporting Democratic congressional candidates Lucy McBath, a current representative from Georgia; Jasmine Crockett of Texas, Adam Hollier of Michigan, Valerie Foushee of North Carolina and Shontel Brown, a current representative from Ohio.

    Most of the other $10 million Bankman-Fried spent this cycle has gone to the House Majority PAC ($6 million) and the crypto PAC GMI ($2 million).

    While the vast majority of his spending has supported Democratic candidates and causes, Bankman-Fried does not classify himself as an exclusively Democratic donor — for instance he gave $105,000 to the Alabama Conservatives Fund in June and $45,000 to the NRCC in July. 

    He told Politico in August that he is “legitimately worried about doing things that will make people view me as partisan when it’s not how I feel … because I think it both misses what I’m trying to do and makes it harder for me to act constructively.” A representative for the FTX boss didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    3. Richard Uihlein — $49 million

    Richard Uihlein is the founder of the shipping and business supply company Uline, and is a longtime conservative donor. This cycle has seen nearly $50 million in political spending by him, with just over half of it going to Club for Growth Action. Uihlein has also given about $14 million to Restoration PAC, an organization that says it is “dedicated to strengthening the foundations that made America the greatest nation in the world: God, family, education, and community.”

    Uihlein’s next largest contributions are to the conservative Team PAC ($2.5 million) and the Arkansas Patriots Fund ($2.2 million), which earlier this year made ad buys favoring Republican Sen. John Boozman’s primary opponent. A representative for Uihlein didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    2. Ken Griffin — $51 million

    With $51 million in federal-level political spending, Ken Griffin, CEO of hedge fund Citadel, is the second most prolific donor this cycle.

    The biggest beneficiaries are the Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund with $18.5 million in contributions, the Senate Leadership Fund with $10 million and Honor Pennsylvania, a super PAC that backed Republican Dave McCormick’s Senate bid. McCormick lost in the primary to Mehmet Oz by less than a thousand votes. 

    While Griffin spent about $64 million during the last cycle, his $51 million figure this year marks by far the most he has spent during a midterm cycle. During the 2018 cycle, his contributions totaled less than $8 million.

    A spokesperson for Griffin told MarketWatch that Griffin “supports leaders who are committed to protecting the American Dream and pursuing policies that will create a better future for the United States.”

    “The right policies will focus on creating rewarding jobs, prioritizing public safety, and investing in a strong national defense,” his spokesperson said. “Preserving the American Dream will require that every child is well educated, can access great healthcare, and has the opportunity to succeed.”

    1. George Soros — $129 million

    Not one donor comes close to matching the sum that billionaire philanthropist George Soros has contributed this cycle: $129 million. However, much of that money hasn’t actually been put to work this cycle.

    The majority of those on this list have focused their funding on Republican causes, but Soros’ money has gone to Democratic groups — specifically Democracy PAC II, whose $125 million in contributions comprises 99% of its fundraising. The super PAC spent more than $80 million on Democratic groups and candidates during the 2020 election.

    A representative for Soros pointed MarketWatch to a Politico article from January, in which Soros said the $125 million is aimed at supporting pro-democracy “causes and candidates, regardless of political party” who are invested in “strengthening the infrastructure of American democracy: voting rights and civic participation, civil rights and liberties, and the rule of law” and called his contribution a “long-term investment” that will  support political work beyond this year.

    So far this cycle, Democracy PAC has spent very little and holds $113 million in available cash. Contributions the PAC has made this cycle include $5 million to the Senate Majority PAC, $2.5 million to One Georgia and $1 million to both Care in Action and House Majority PAC.

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  • 4 Tips for Responding to an Unexpected Media Inquiry

    4 Tips for Responding to an Unexpected Media Inquiry

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    Have you ever gotten an unexpected call from a reporter? What did you do first? If you answered, “panic,” you’re not unlike many clients I’ve encountered. Why is our first response to a media inquiry to panic? And how can we calm down and marshal our resources to answer their questions — without the desire to head for the hills?

    Why do we panic when we have to talk to the media?

    There’s something about an unexpected media request that strikes fear in people. It may be because we’ve all seen those “gotcha” segments on the — stories in which a company or its spokesperson looks like the bad guy. When a reporter gets in touch unexpectedly, it can make someone feel as though they’re being put on the spot, and they worry they’ll say the wrong thing.
    Even in industries that aren’t fraught with scandals, there are times when ANY business can find itself in the position of responding to a media inquiry they didn’t know was coming their way.

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    Michelle Garrett

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  • 21 dividend stocks yielding 5% or more of companies that will produce plenty of cash in 2023

    21 dividend stocks yielding 5% or more of companies that will produce plenty of cash in 2023

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    When the stock market has jumped two days in a row, as it has now, it is easy to become complacent.

    But the Federal Reserve isn’t finished raising interest rates, and recession talk abounds. Stock investors aren’t out of the woods yet. That can make dividend stocks attractive if the yields are high and the companies produce more cash flow than they need to cover the payouts.

    Below is a list of 21 stocks drawn from the S&P Composite 1500 Index
    SP1500,
    +3.12%

    that appear to fit the bill. The S&P Composite 1500 is made up of the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +3.06%
    ,
    the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
    MID,
    +3.18%

    and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index
    SML,
    +3.80%
    .

    The purpose of the list is to provide a starting point for further research. These stocks may be appropriate for you if you are looking for income, but you should do your own assessment to form your own opinion about a company’s ability to remain competitive over the next decade.

    Cash flow is key

    One way to measure a company’s ability to pay dividends is to look at its free cash flow yield. Free cash flow is remaining cash flow after planned capital expenditures. This money can be used to pay for dividends, buy back shares (which can raise earnings and cash flow per share), or fund acquisitions, organic expansion or for other corporate purposes.

    If we divide a company’s estimated annual free cash flow per share by its current share price, we have its estimated free cash flow yield. If we compare the free cash flow yield to the current dividend yield, we may see “headroom” for cash to be deployed in ways that can benefit shareholders.

    For this screen, we began with the S&P Composite 1500, then narrowed the list as follows:

    • Dividend yield of at least 5.00%.

    • Consensus free cash flow estimate available for calendar 2023, among at least five analysts polled by FactSet. We used calendar-year estimates, even though fiscal years for many companies don’t match the calendar.

    • Estimated 2023 free cash flow yield of at least double the current dividend yield.

    For real-estate investment trusts, dividend-paying ability is measured by funds from operations (FFO), a non-GAAP figure that adds depreciation and amortization back to earnings. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) takes this a step further, subtracting cash expected to be used to maintain properties. So for the two REITs on the list, the FCF yield column makes use of AFFO.

    For many companies in the financial sector, especially banks and insurers, free cash flow figures aren’t available, so the screen made use of earnings-per-share estimates. These are generally considered to run close to actual cash flow for these heavily regulated industries.

    Here are the 21 companies that passed the screen, with dividend yields of at least 5% and estimated 2023 FCF yields at least twice the current payout. They are sorted by dividend yield:

    Company

    Ticker

    Type

    Dividend yield

    Estimated 2023 FCF yield

    Estimated “headroom”

    Uniti Group Inc.

    UNIT,
    +7.36%
    Real-Estate Investment Trusts

    8.33%

    25.25%

    16.92%

    Hanesbrands Inc.

    HBI,
    +5.56%
    Apparel/ Footwear

    8.33%

    17.29%

    8.96%

    Kohl’s Corp.

    KSS,
    +5.80%
    Department Stores

    7.68%

    16.72%

    9.04%

    Rent-A-Center Inc.

    RCII,
    +10.40%
    Finance/ Rental/ Leasing

    7.52%

    17.26%

    9.73%

    Macerich Co.

    MAC,
    +8.18%
    Real-Estate Investment Trusts

    7.43%

    18.04%

    10.60%

    Devon Energy Corp.

    DVN,
    +5.72%
    Oil & Gas Production

    7.13%

    14.47%

    7.33%

    AT&T Inc.

    T,
    +1.19%
    Major Telecommunications

    6.98%

    14.82%

    7.84%

    Newell Brands Inc.

    NWL,
    +5.16%
    Industrial Conglomerates

    6.59%

    17.42%

    10.82%

    Dow Inc.

    DOW,
    +2.96%
    Chemicals

    6.18%

    15.63%

    9.45%

    LyondellBasell Industries NV

    LYB,
    +3.64%
    Chemicals

    6.09%

    16.07%

    9.99%

    Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. Class A

    SMG,
    +5.01%
    Chemicals

    6.04%

    12.68%

    6.65%

    Diamondback Energy Inc.

    FANG,
    +5.23%
    Oil & Gas Production

    5.56%

    13.63%

    8.08%

    Best Buy Co. Inc.

    BBY,
    +5.86%
    Electronics/ Appliance Stores

    5.53%

    14.08%

    8.55%

    Viatris Inc.

    VTRS,
    +5.62%
    Pharmaceuticals

    5.50%

    28.95%

    23.45%

    Prudential Financial Inc.

    PRU,
    +5.66%
    Life/ Health Insurance

    5.38%

    13.30%

    7.91%

    Ford Motor Co.

    F,
    +7.76%
    Motor Vehicles

    5.23%

    15.95%

    10.72%

    Invesco Ltd.

    IVZ,
    +6.76%
    Investment Managers

    5.23%

    14.95%

    9.73%

    Franklin Resources Inc.

    BEN,
    +4.37%
    Investment Managers

    5.17%

    13.21%

    8.04%

    Kontoor Brands Inc.

    KTB,
    +0.73%
    Apparel/ Footwear

    5.17%

    14.15%

    8.98%

    Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

    STX,
    +4.09%
    Computer Peripherals

    5.11%

    13.19%

    8.07%

    Foot Locker Inc.

    FL,
    +1.35%
    Apparel/ Footwear Retail

    5.03%

    15.52%

    10.49%

    Source: FactSet

    Any stock screen has its limitations. If you are interested in stocks listed here, it is best to do your own research, and it is easy to get started by clicking the tickers in the table for more information about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    For the “estimated FCF yields,” consensus free cash flow estimates for calendar 2023 were used for all companies except the following:

    Don’t miss: Dividend yields on preferred stocks have soared. This is how to pick the best ones for your portfolio.

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  • Dow falls 500 points Friday as stocks book third straight quarterly loss, set new 2022 lows

    Dow falls 500 points Friday as stocks book third straight quarterly loss, set new 2022 lows

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    U.S. stocks dropped sharply Friday, with major indexes posting their lowest finishes since 2020 and logging a third straight quarterly decline as investors grew more fearful that aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will drive the economy into a downturn in an attempt to quell inflation.

    What’s happening
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      -1.71%

      dropped 500.10 points, or 1.7%, to close at 28,725.51.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -1.51%

      dropped 54.85 points, or 1.5%, to end at 3,585.61.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      -0.43%

      shed 161.88 points, of 1.5%, finishing at 10,575.61.

    The drop left the Dow and S&P 500 at their lowest since November 2020, while the Nasdaq posted its lowest close since July 29, 2020. The Dow dropped 8.8% in September, while the S&P 500 tumbled 9.3% and the Nasdaq lost 10.5%.

    For the quarter, the Dow dropped 6.7%, the S&P 500 declined 5.3% and the Nasdaq gave up 4.1%.

    What’s driving the market

    In keeping with the historical pattern, U.S. stocks suffered during the month of September as an assertive Federal Reserve helped push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, which in turn undermined equity valuations.

    See: It’s the worst September for stocks since 2008. What that means for October.

    Investors on Friday digested a reading from the personal consumption expenditure inflation index for August, which showed that core consumer prices climbed by 0.6% last month, more than Wall Street’s forecast of 0.5%. The core inflation measure excludes volatile food and energy prices.

    See: Cheaper gas holds down inflation, PCE shows, but the cost of everything else is still going up fast

    “That means the Fed will remain hell-bent on killing inflation. And the best way to do that is to increase rates, kill the housing market, and get rental costs down. The PCE doesn’t have housing and rents as a big component as the CPI does, so the fact that it is rising is a warning sign,” said Louis Navellier, founder of Navellier & Associates, in emailed comments.

    Read: Will October be another stock-market ‘bear killer’? Why investors need to tread carefully around seasonal trends.

    The reading largely confirmed similar data from the consumer-price index, another closely watched inflation barometer, which sent stocks lower earlier this month. Since that report was released just over two weeks ago, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 10%.

    Helping to underscore this point, data out of the eurozone showed inflation accelerated at a record pace last month.

    See: Eurozone Inflation posts new record high of 10% in September

    In other news, investors also heard from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who reiterated that the central bank would keep interest rates elevated to combat inflation, even if it harms the economy.

    See: Fed won’t pull back from rate hikes prematurely, Brainard says

    Since it will take time for high interest rates to bring inflation down, Brainard said the Fed is “committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely.”

    Investors were also keeping an eye on megacap tech stocks. Apple Inc. AAPL fell 3% on Friday after leading markets lower a day earlier following a downgrade by Bank of America.

    Need to know: Here’s why investors should start betting on Apple and the stock market now

    A final reading on the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index for September showed consumers’ view of the economy improved somewhat during the month due to falling gas prices, even as their outlook remained broadly pessimistic.

    Investors are now facing “what may be one of the most important earning seasons in a very long time, with a major rally in the cards if earnings don’t disappoint, and if the bears are right, lead to a further leg down if earnings disappoint and 4th quarter estimates are cut,” Navellier said.

    See: U.S. consumers remain pessimistic about economy even as inflation fears wane

    Stocks in focus

    — Steve Goldstein and Barbara Kollmeyer contributed to this article

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