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Investors who are buying into the post-Covid recovery of commercial aerospace will get an important update about the industry, including the hot issues of sustainability and supply-chain snags, when the Paris Air Show kicks off on Monday.
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Shares of Boeing Co. dropped 2% in midday trading Tuesday after the aerospace and defense company said it found new problems with its 787 Dreamliner jets.
The defect, which is not a flight safety concern, is connected with a stabilizer fitting, and will lead the company to inspect every plane in inventory before delivery, Boeing
BA,
said.
The inspections and required rework will affect timing of near-term 787 deliveries, but “at this time we do not expect that this issue will change our full-year guidance regarding 787 deliveries,” the company said.
At the time it reported first-quarter earnings in April, Boeing said its 787 program was producing at least three jets a month “with plans to ramp production to five per month in late 2023” and on to 10 a month by 2025-26.
In-service fleet may continue to operate, and the FAA and customers have been informed, Boeing said.
Dreamliner deliveries were halted in February after a documentation and data-analysis error, and the FAA had cleared the jets’ deliveries in March.
Boeing in April identified a problem with another jet family, the 737 Max, related to fittings.
Shares of Boeing have gained around 9% so far this year, compared with gains of about 11% for the S&P 500 index.
SPX,
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U.S. stocks closed lower Friday as investors digested strong big bank earnings, weak retail sales, and hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official, but all three major benchmarks booked weekly gains.
For the week, Dow rose 1.2%, the S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.3%. The Dow booked a fourth straight week of gains in its longest win streak since October, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
U.S. stocks ended modestly lower Friday, as investors digested retail sales data showing spending deteriorated again last month as well as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks that the Fed needs to keep hiking interest rates because inflation is still much too high.
“Because financial conditions have not significantly tightened, the labor market continues to be strong and quite tight, and inflation is far above target, so monetary policy needs to be tightened further,” Waller said Friday during a speech in San Antonio, Texas.
Waller’s comments were “pretty hawkish,” said Jackie Rogowicz, an investment analyst at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in a phone interview. She said she’s expecting the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point in May, and at least at this stage, sees some potential for another rate hike in June.
Inflation data released earlier in the week showed a larger-than-expected slowdown in wholesale prices, while so-called core consumer-price inflation remained stubbornly high as it ticked higher to a rate of 5.6% year-over-year.
Read: This ETF designed to protect against inflation is attracting inflows as price pressures persist
Marvin Loh, senior global strategist at State Street, said Waller’s comments were a departure from the more dovish tone evinced by other senior Fed officials since the Fed’s March policy meeting.
“This is one of the more hawkish comments over the past week. A lot of the Fed speak has leaned toward ‘one and done’ in terms of rate hikes,” Loh said during a phone call with MarketWatch.
Investors also digested commentary Friday from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who said the U.S. economy could slip into recession. His remarks echoed Fed staff concerns expressed in the central bank’s March meeting minutes released on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, fresh economic data on Friday showed sales at retailers, a critical component of consumer spending, dropped 1% in March, declining for the fourth time in the past five months. The decline was sharper than the contraction that economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had anticipated.
A popular consumer-sentiment survey released Friday showed respondents’ outlook has risen slightly to 63.5 in April, rebounding from a four-month low, but also reflected slightly higher anxiety about inflation.
While consumer spending hasn’t fallen off a cliff, it has continued to weaken from the elevated levels seen in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, economists said.
“The cumulative effect of historically high inflation, rising interest rates, and reduced access to credit is already taking a toll on consumers’ ability and willingness to spend,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY Parthenon, in emailed commentary. “And the full effect of recent banking-sector turmoil and the associated tightening in credit conditions has yet to be felt.”
The first bank earnings reports since regional banks including Silicon Valley Bank failed last month offered some optimism though. Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM,
the U.S.’s biggest bank, jumped after it reported earnings and revenue well above forecasts.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy looked “generally healthy,” but warned the coast was not completely clear. “The storm clouds that we have been monitoring for the past year remain on the horizon, and the banking industry turmoil adds to these risks,” he said.
Need to Know: Bank earnings season is here. This popular value fund just bought Kroger and a regional lender.
Wells Fargo & Co.
WFC,
and Citigroup Inc.
C,
also beat forecasts for profits and revenue, while Pittsburgh lender PNC Financial Services Group Inc.
PNC,
reported higher earnings and deposits. BlackRock Inc.
BLK,
meanwhile, reported a decline in profit as assets under management fell 5%, although its shares ended higher.
The “big banks are well-capitalized,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in a phone interview. “They benefited from some deposit inflows in March.”
Investors have been anxious to see how the banks would perform as analysts have been cutting earnings estimates for both large and regional banks in the wake of the crisis.
“So far it seems the numbers are coming in pretty good,” said State Street’s Loh. However, “we have to wait for more smaller lenders to start reporting” to get a better picture of how banks are doing in the wake of last month’s turmoil.
—Barbara Kollmeyer contributed to this report.
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There is currently no dispute over who wears the crown of world’s wealthiest person. It isn’t Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk.
The net worth of Bernard Arnault, the founder and chairman and chief executive officer of LVMH Moet-Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE
MC,
stood at $210 billion as of Thursday, according to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index. That makes him the world’s richest person by that marker, with an increasingly comfortable lead over Tesla’s
TSLA,
Musk, who also leads SpaceX and Twitter and whose wealth stands at $180 billion. At times the two have been in a neck-and-neck race for that top spot.
LVMH shares closed at a record €883 on Thursday, helping lift the French CAC-40
PX1,
to an all-time high. That followed forecast-beating first-quarter sales from the luxury giant, thanks to returning China shoppers as COVID-19 restrictions eased, and rebounding international travel that drove duty-free sales. Up 7% so far this week, LVMH shares rose another 0.5% on Friday to €888.70.
The stock surge padded Arnault’s fortune by $11.6 billion on Thursday, the second-biggest single-day gain ever for him and a fresh record fortune, according to Bloomberg. Musk didn’t do badly.
He increased his wealth by $3.83 billion on Thursday, before Tesla and U.S. equities
SPX,
generally retreated a bit on Friday.
Read: Who is Bernard Arnault, the world’s richest person after surpassing Elon Musk?
LVMH owns jewelers Bulgari and Tiffany, alongside fashion houses Louis Vuitton and Dior. Results released late Wednesday showed the luxury standard-bearer beating expectations across every division, led by fashion and leather goods, the latter of which is significant, Berenberg analysts observed.
“As the most profitable division, this also bodes well for margin development,” said Berenberg analyst Graham Renwick, in a note to clients on Friday.
“This performance sets the standard for [first quarter] luxury reporting and gives encouragement on China’s recovery from pandemic disruption. Overall, we think these results continue to demonstrate LVMH’s strong momentum and best-in-class execution — again reaffirming its high quality and strong track record, which we believe investors are favoring in this uncertain macro environment,” said Renwick, who reiterated a buy rating on LVMH’s stock and lifted his share-price target to €960.
The luxury sector got another confidence boost on Friday, as Hermès International SCA
RMS,
revealed sales momentum in the first quarter, driven by a bump in tourism and new stores. The maker of the legendary Birkin handbag saw a 23% annual increase in first-quarter sales and backed “ambitious” organic revenue-growth targets.
Luxury stocks have seen an impressive rebound in 2023, after a weak 2022 — LVMH shares fell 6% in 2022 as travel restrictions in China and overall economic worries weighed on shoppers.
LVMH shares are up 30% so far in 2023, with Hermès up 36% and Christian Dior SE
CDI,
and Gucci owner Kering SA
KER,
up 26% and 21%, respectively.
As for Musk, his wealth is divided among his businesses. While Tesla accounts for $76 billion, Bloomberg estimates his share of SpaceX is worth $49 billion, and his share of Tesla is worth nearly $10 billion. He paid $44 billion for Twitter last year, after an attempt to wriggle out of the deal, and its current valuation is a matter of much speculation. Musk has fired thousands of employees and claimed this week that a return to profitability is now just around the corner.
Tesla is slated to report quarterly results next week, and some analysts aren’t optimistic due to persistent price cuts of its models.
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This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-movers-6336691f
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The numbers: Orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell 1% in February because of less demand for passenger planes and new cars. Yet business investment rose for the second month in a row in a sign the industrial side of the economy is still growing.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% drop in orders. Durable goods are products like cars, appliances and computers meant to last at least three years.
Orders rise in an expanding economy and shrink in a contracting one. They are still rising but at a slower pace compared to last year.
Orders are up 2.3% over the past 12 months, marking the smallest year-over-year increase since 2020.
Key details: Orders for commercial jets and new cars both fell last month. Bookings dropped 6.6% for airplanes and almost 1% for new autos.
The transportation segment is a large and volatile category that often exaggerates the ups and downs in industrial production. Orders for both the aircraft and carmakers have been very choppy since the pandemic.
Orders excluding transportation were unchanged in February, reflecting recent weakness in manufacturing.
The most positive news in the report was the second straight increase in business investment — a sign of future demand. So-called core orders rose 0.2%.
These orders exclude military spending and the auto and aerospace industries. They are up 4.3% in the past year, but that’s also the smallest increase since 2020.
Big picture: The industrial side of the economy has slowed since last year because of steep inflation and rising interest rates. Higher borrowing costs curtail demand for expensive manufactured goods and discourage investment.
Manufacturers are still growing, but further weakness would be a bad omen. Heavy industry is at the leading edge of the economy.
The recent turmoil in the banking sector after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank could also add to the stress if banks scale back lending to businesses.
Looking ahead: “Business investment is definitely a vulnerability for the economy in the event of a severe tightening in credit conditions,” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Santander Capital Markets. “Thus, it will be important to watch these numbers going forward.”
Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
and S&P 500
SPX,
were set to open sharply lower in Friday trades.
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LONDON — After four months of intense talks (and plenty of squabbling before that), the EU and U.K. have a deal to resolve their long-running post-Brexit trade row over Northern Ireland.
But as U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak works to sell the so-called “Windsor framework” on the Northern Ireland protocol to Brexiteers and unionists, lawmakers on both sides of the English Channel and of the Irish Sea are getting to grips with the details.
From paperwork to plants, let POLITICO walk you through the new agreement, asking: Who has given ground, and how exactly will the deal thrashed out by EU and U.K. negotiators aim to keep the bloc’s prized single market secure?
For businesses taking part in an expanded “trusted trader scheme,” the Windsor framework aims to considerably cut customs paperwork and checks on goods moving from Great Britain but destined to stay in Northern Ireland.
These goods will pass through a “green lane” requiring minimal paperwork and be labeled “Not for EU,” while those heading for the EU single market in the Republic of Ireland will undergo full EU customs checks in Northern Ireland’s ports under a “red lane.”
Traders in the green lane will only need to complete a single, digitized certificate per truck movement, rather than multiple forms per load.
Sunak has already claimed that this means “any sense of a border in the Irish Sea” — deeply controversial among Northern Ireland’s unionist politicians — has now been “removed.”
However, it’s by no means a total end to Irish Sea red tape. An EU official said that although the deal delivers a “dramatic reduction” in the number of physical food safety checks, for example, there will still be some — those seen as “essential” to avoid the risk of goods entering the single market.
These checks will be based on risk assessments and intelligence, and aimed at preventing smuggling and criminality.
U.K. public health and safety standards will meanwhile apply to all retail food and drink within the U.K. internal market. British rules on public health, marketing, organics, labeling, genetic modification, and drinks such as wines, spirits and mineral waters will apply in Northern Ireland. This will remove more than 60 EU food and drink rules in the original protocol, which were detailed in more than 1,000 pages of legislation.
Supermarkets, wholesalers, hospitality and food producers are likely to welcome the new arrangements. Many had stopped supplying to Northern Ireland because the cost of filling out hundreds of certificates for each consignment was deemed too high for a market as small as Northern Ireland.
Export declarations have been removed for the vast majority of goods moving from Northern Ireland to Great Britain.
The EU’s safeguards: While offering to drastically reduce the volume of checks carried out, the EU has toughened its criteria to become a trusted trader under the expanded scheme. The EU will now have access to databases tracking shipments of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in real time. The system was tested through the winter, helping build trust in Brussels, and is being fed with data from traders and U.K. authorities. The European Commission will be able to suspend part or all of these trade easements if the U.K. fails to comply with the new rules.
The timeline: The U.K. government said it will consult with businesses in the “coming months” before implementing the new rules. The green lane will come into force this fall. Labels for meat, meat products and minimally-processed dairy products such as fresh milk will come into force from October 1, 2024. All relevant products will be marked by July 1, 2025. “Shelf-stable” products like bread and pasta will not be labeled.
A key plank of the deal is the bid to address complaints by Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) — currently boycotting the power-sharing assembly in the region in opposition to the protocol — that lawmakers there did not have a say in the imposition of new EU rules in the region.
Under the terms of the new agreement, the Commission will have to give the U.K. government notice of future EU regulations intended to apply in Northern Ireland. According to Sunak, Stormont will be given a new power to “pull an emergency brake on changes to EU goods rules” based on “cross-community consent.”
Under this mechanism, the U.K. government will be able to suspend the application in Northern Ireland of an incoming piece of EU law at the request of at least 30 members of the assembly — a third of them. But if unionist parties in Northern Ireland want to trigger the new “Stormont brake,” they must first return to the power-sharing institutions which they abandoned last May. The EU and the U.K. could subsequently agree to apply such a rule in a meeting of the Joint Committee, which oversees the protocol.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this new tool remains an emergency mechanism that hopefully will not need to be used. A second EU official said it would be triggered “under the most exceptional circumstances and as a matter of last resort in a well-defined process” set out in a unilateral declaration by the U.K. These include that the rules have a “significant and lasting impact on the everyday lives” of people in the region.
If the EU disagrees with the U.K.’s trigger of the Stormont brake, the two would resolve the issue through independent arbitration, instead of involving the Court of Justice of the EU.
Meanwhile, Northern Ireland’s courts will consider disputes over the application of EU rules in the region, and judges could decide whether to consult the CJEU on how to interpret them. In a key concession, the Commission has agreed not to unilaterally refer a case to the CJEU, although it retains the power to do so.
The EU’s safeguards: The CJEU will remain the “sole and ultimate arbiter of EU law” and will have the “final say” on EU single market disputes, von der Leyen stressed. Whether Brexiteers and the DUP are willing to accept that remains the million-dollar question.
The U.K. government will now be able to set rules in areas such as VAT and state aid that will also apply in Northern Ireland — two major wins for Sunak that were rejected by the Commission in previous rounds of negotiations with other U.K. prime ministers.
It will, Sunak was at pains to point out Monday, allow Westminster to pass on a cut in alcohol duty that previously passed Northern Ireland by.
But London has had to give up on its idea of establishing a dual-regulatory mechanism that would have allowed Northern Ireland businesses to choose whether they would follow EU or British rules when manufacturing goods, depending on whether they intended to sell them in the EU single market or in the U.K. The whole idea was deemed by Brussels as impossible to police.
The EU’s safeguards: Northern Irish businesses producing goods for the U.K. internal market will only have to follow “less than 3 percent” of EU single market rules, a U.K. official said. But the nature of these regulations remains unclear, and there will be increased market surveillance and enforcement by U.K. authorities to try and reassure the EU.
The timeline: The U.K. government will be able to exercise these powers as soon as the Windsor framework comes into force.
The EU and the U.K. have agreed to scrap customs processes for parcels being sent between consumers in Great Britain to Northern Ireland.
The EU’s safeguards: Parcels sent between businesses will now move through the new green lane, as is the case for other goods destined to stay in Northern Ireland. That should allow them to be monitored, but remove the need to undergo international customs procedures. Parcel operators will share commercial data with the U.K.’s tax authority, HMRC, in a bid to reduce risks to the EU single market.
Timeline: These new arrangements will take effect September 2024.
Residents in Great Britain will be able to take their dogs, cats and ferrets to Northern Ireland without having to fulfill a requirement for a rabies vaccine, tapeworm treatment and other checks.
Pets traveling from Northern Ireland to Great Britain and back will not be required to have any documentation, declarations, checks or health treatments.
The EU’s safeguards: Microchipped pets will be able to travel with a life-long pet travel document issued for free by the U.K.’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Pet owners will tick a box in their travel booking acknowledging they accept the scheme rules and will not move their pet into the EU.
The timeline: The new rules will take effect fall 2023.
Drugs approved for use by the U.K.’s medicines regulator, the MHRA, will be automatically available in every pharmacy and hospital in Northern Ireland, “at the same time and under the same conditions” as in the U.K., von der Leyen said.
Businesses will need to secure approval for a U.K.-wide license from the MHRA to supply medicines to Northern Ireland, rather than having to go through the European Medicines Agency. The agreement removes any EU Falsified Medicines Directive packaging, labeling and barcode requirements for medicines. This means manufacturers will be able to produce a single medicines pack design for the whole of the U.K., including Northern Ireland.
Drugs being shipped into Northern Ireland from Great Britain will be freed of customs paperwork, checks and duties, with traders only being required to provide ordinary commercial information.
The EU’s safeguards: Medicines traveling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland will do so via the new green lane, which will have monitoring to protect the single market built in.
The timeline: The U.K. government said it will engage with the medicines industry soon on these changes.
The deal lifts the protocol’s ban on seed potatoes entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain, and its prohibition on trees and shrubs deemed of “high risk” for the EU single market. This will enable garden centers and other businesses in Northern Ireland to sell 11 native species to Great Britain and some from other regions.
The Windsor framework also removes sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks on all these plants, and ditches red tape on their shipment into Northern Ireland.
The EU’s safeguards: Supplying businesses will have to obtain a Northern Ireland plant health label, which will be the same as the plant passport already required within Great Britain, but with the addition of the words “for use in the U.K. only” and a QR code linking to the rules.
The timeline: The new scheme and the lifting of the bans will all come into force in the fall.
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Cristina Gallardo
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The initial version of this story had incorrect price changes for 2023. It is now updated with information as of the market close on Jan. 31.
Investors staged a January rally, with solid gains for the S&P 500 and an even better showing for technology stocks that led the dismal downward action in 2022.
This…
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Pour one out for the beleaguered economists, who for once got an important indicator, the consumer price index, right on the nose, after CPI fell 0.1% in December, while core prices rose 0.3%.
“The 2021 surge in durable goods demand normalized, and the resulting collapse in durable goods price inflation was stunningly fast,” says Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management.
“The commodity wave of inflation is fading, and that leaves the profit margin expansion in focus,” he adds. What a good time for earnings season to be upon us, and what do you know, it is, kicking off with the banking sector on Friday before broadening out next week.
Strategists at Goldman Sachs have a new note out, saying that the market is pricing in a soft landing even though the trend of earnings revisions points to a hard landing.
They’re not that optimistic — even in the soft-landing scenario, the team led by David Kostin say the S&P 500
SPX,
will end the year right around current levels, at 4,000. But they identify 46 stocks that could benefit — profitable, cyclical companies that are trading at price-to-earnings valuations below their 10-year median, among other factors.
One name jumps out: Tesla
TSLA,
which trades at 22 times forward earnings versus the 10-year median of 117 times. But the other 45 names are less flashy, ranging from Capital One
COF,
and Carlyle Group
CG,
to a host of industrials including 3M
MMM,
Parker-Hannifan
PH,
and Otis Worldwide
OTIS,
As a whole, these typically $10 billion companies are trading at 12 times earnings, versus 17 times usually.
In the hard landing scenario, S&P 500 profit margins would shrink by 125 basis points, to 10.9% — about in line with the median peak-to-trough decline during the eight recessions since 1970, which has been 132 basis points. Consensus expectations are for a 26 basis-point margin decline.
The Goldman team also have a 36 stock screen for a hard landing — profitable companies in defensive industries with a positive dividend yield. They’re typically food, beverage and tobacco companies as well as software and services companies — including Costco Wholesale
COST,
Kroger
KR,
Altria
MO,
Tyson Foods
TSN,
Microsoft
MSFT,
MasterCard
MA,
and Visa
V,
As a whole, these $37 billion companies are trading at 22 times earnings vs. a historical 24 times.
After a 2.3% advance for the S&P 500
SPX,
over the last three sessions, U.S. stock futures
ES00,
NQ00,
declined on Friday.
The yield on the Japanese 10-year bond
TMBMKJP-10Y,
exceeded 0.5%, the Bank of Japan’s yield cap, ahead of next week’s rate decision , prompting a second day of aggressive bond purchases from the central bank.
For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.
Fourth-quarter earnings were rolling out from Bank of America
BAC,
JPMorgan Chase
JPM,
Citigroup
C,
and Wells Fargo
WFC,
and outside of banks, Delta Air Lines
DAL,
BlackRock
BLK,
and UnitedHealth
UNH,
JPMorgan shares slumped after forecast-beating earnings, though investment bank revenue came in light of estimates. Delta shares also declined after topping earnings estimates.
Tesla
TSLA,
cut prices of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in the U.S. and elsewhere by up to 20%. The electric vehicle maker stock dropped 6%.
Virgin Galactic
SPCE,
surged after saying it’s on track to launch space-tourism flights in the second quarter.
Apple
AAPL,
says CEO Tim Cook requested, and received, a pay cut after investor criticism.
The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index is due at 10 a.m. Eastern, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker are due to speak.
Tyler Winklevoss said charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission brought about Gemini Trust for allegedly offering unregistered securities were “super lame” as it seeks to unfreeze $900 million in investor assets.
There’s a bull market in swearing on corporate earnings calls.
The West is now preparing to send tanks to Ukraine in what could be another escalation of its conflict with Russia, which on Friday claimed victory in the eastern town of Soledar.
A look back at photos of Lisa Marie Presley, who died at age 54.
Here were the most active stock-market tickers as of 6 a.m. Eastern.
| Ticker | Security name |
|
BBBY, |
Bed Bath & Beyond |
|
TSLA, |
Tesla |
|
GME, |
GameStop |
|
AMC, |
AMC Entertainment |
|
MULN, |
Mullen Automotive |
|
NIO, |
Nio |
|
APE, |
AMC Entertainment preferreds |
|
AAPL, |
Apple |
|
SPCE, |
Virgin Galactic |
|
AMZN, |
Amazon.com |
Like a scene out of “Stranger Things” — there’s uproar after new restrictions on the Hasbro
HAS,
game Dungeons & Dragons.
Starting next month, Starbucks
SBUX,
rewards will be less generous for most items, though iced coffee will be easier to get.
Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.
Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton.
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It may not have been a surprise to see the consumer discretionary sector of the S&P 500 get hammered last year amid talk of a looming recession while the Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates to push back against inflation.
But the stock market always looks ahead. Following a decline of 19.4% for the S&P 500
SPX,
in 2022 and a 37.6% drop for the benchmark index’s consumer discretionary sector, this may be the time to begin looking for bargains.
And now, analysts at Jefferies have lifted the sector to a “bullish” rating.
In a note to clients on Jan. 10, Jefferies’ global equity strategist, Sean Darby, wrote: “A Goldilocks scenario might be unfolding for the U.S. consumer — falling inflation but steady employment conditions.”
He sees consumer confidence improving, in part because “households are still sitting on [about] $1.4 trillion of Covid savings.”
Darby pointed to a list of 18 consumer discretionary stocks favored by Jefferies analysts that was published on Jan. 6. Those are listed below, along with three stocks in the sector the analysts rate “underperform.”
The ratings of the Jefferies analysts for individual stocks is based on their 12-month outlooks for the companies, in keeping with Wall Street tradition.
So we have added another list further down, showing which companies in the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector are expected by analysts polled by FactSet to increase sales the most through 2024.
Here are the 18 consumer discretionary stocks recommended by Jefferies analysts with “buy” ratings on Jan. 6, sorted by how much upside the firm sees for the shares from closing prices on Jan. 9:
| Company | Ticker | Jan. 9 price | Jefferies price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Three-year estimated sales CAGR through 2022 | Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2024 |
| Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. |
MODG, |
$20.76 | $56 | 170% | 32.8% | 10.0% |
| Bloomin’ Brands Inc. |
BLMN, |
$22.08 | $35 | 59% | 2.4% | 3.7% |
| Coty Inc. Class A |
COTY, |
$9.38 | $14 | 49% | -7.1% | 3.7% |
| MGM Resorts International |
MGM, |
$37.64 | $56 | 49% | -0.1% | 6.6% |
| Chewy Inc. Class A |
CHWY, |
$40.13 | $57 | 42% | 28.0% | 10.6% |
| Planet Fitness Inc. Class A |
PLNT, |
$82.36 | $115 | 40% | 10.4% | 13.9% |
| Molson Coors Beverage Co. Class B |
TAP, |
$50.21 | $69 | 37% | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| Fox Factory Holding Corp. |
FOXF, |
$99.90 | $135 | 35% | 28.1% | 6.6% |
| Hasbro Inc. |
HAS, |
$63.70 | $85 | 33% | 9.1% | 3.6% |
| Hostess Brands Inc. Class A |
TWNK, |
$23.10 | $30 | 30% | 14.2% | 5.0% |
| Lowe’s Cos. Inc. |
LOW, |
$199.44 | $250 | 25% | 10.6% | -1.9% |
| Walmart Inc. |
WMT, |
$144.95 | $175 | 21% | 4.9% | 3.3% |
| Dollar General Corp. |
DG, |
$241.05 | $285 | 18% | 10.9% | 6.7% |
| Church & Dwight Co. Inc. |
CHD, |
$82.25 | $97 | 18% | 7.0% | 4.6% |
| McDonald’s Corp. |
MCD, |
$267.25 | $315 | 18% | 2.4% | 4.0% |
| Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. Class A |
EL, |
$261.63 | $304 | 16% | 2.8% | 5.8% |
| Mondelez International Inc. Class A |
MDLZ, |
$67.24 | $75 | 12% | 6.3% | 4.1% |
| Tapestry Inc. |
TPR, |
$41.25 | $45 | 9% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| Sources: Jefferies, FactSet | ||||||
Click on the tickers for more information about the companies.
Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
The two right-most columns on the table show estimated compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for the companies over the past three calendar years and expected sales CAGR for two years through calendar 2024, based on the companies’ financial reports and consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet.
(We used calendar-year numbers, some of which are estimated by FactSet for prior years, because some companies have fiscal years or even months that don’t match the calendar.)
The stock pick with the highest 12-month upside potential, based on Jefferies’ price target, is Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp.
MODG,
This company has the highest estimated three-year sales CAGR on the list, and has the third-highest projected sales CAGR through 2024, after Planet Fitness Inc.
PLNT,
and Chewy Inc.
CHWY,
On Jan. 6, the Jefferies analysts also listed three stocks in the sector they rated “underperform.” Here they are, sorted by how much the analysts expect the stocks to decline over the next 12 months:
| Company | Ticker | Jan. 9 price | Jefferies price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Three-year estimated sales CAGR through 2022 | Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2024 |
| Lululemon Athletica Inc. |
LULU, |
$298.66 | $200 | -33% | 26.3% | 14.6% |
| Williams-Sonoma Inc. |
WSM, |
$122.17 | $98 | -20% | 14.1% | -0.3% |
| Harley-Davidson Inc. |
HOG, |
$43.25 | $39 | -10% | -2.8% | 4.4% |
| Sources: Jefferies, FactSet | ||||||
A look head at which companies are expected to increase sales the most over the next two years might serve as a good starting point for your own research.
Bear in mind that some of the companies in travel-related industries suffered declining sales for three years through 2022 because of the coronavirus pandemic. Some of those are on this new list of 20 stocks in the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector expected to show the highest two-year sales CAGR through calendar 2024:
| Company | Ticker | Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2024 | Three-year estimated sales CAGR through 2022 | Share “buy” ratings | Jan. 9 price | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Las Vegas Sands Corp. |
LVS, |
59.2% | -32.6% | 79% | $52.78 | $53.53 | 1% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. |
NCLH, |
39.6% | -9.3% | 44% | $13.78 | $16.96 | 23% |
| Carnival Corp. |
CCL, |
35.2% | -14.7% | 30% | $9.47 | $10.11 | 7% |
| Tesla Inc. |
TSLA, |
34.3% | 49.7% | 64% | $119.77 | $232.43 | 94% |
| Wynn Resorts Ltd. |
WYNN, |
29.3% | -17.5% | 53% | $94.33 | $96.07 | 2% |
| Royal Caribbean Group |
RCL, |
28.4% | -6.8% | 53% | $57.29 | $66.43 | 16% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. |
CMG, |
13.4% | 15.9% | 71% | $1,446.74 | $1,778.81 | 23% |
| Amazon.com Inc. |
AMZN, |
12.2% | 22.1% | 92% | $87.36 | $133.76 | 53% |
| Booking Holdings Inc. |
BKNG, |
11.9% | 3.9% | 63% | $2,208.41 | $2,307.67 | 4% |
| Aptiv PLC |
APTV, |
11.9% | 6.4% | 70% | $97.98 | $117.23 | 20% |
| Starbucks Corp. |
SBUX, |
11.2% | 7.2% | 42% | $104.74 | $103.44 | -1% |
| Etsy Inc. |
ETSY, |
11.1% | 45.3% | 50% | $120.99 | $124.04 | 3% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. |
HLT, |
10.1% | -2.9% | 38% | $129.08 | $146.17 | 13% |
| Expedia Group Inc. |
EXPE, |
9.0% | -0.9% | 50% | $93.77 | $125.65 | 34% |
| NIKE Inc. Class B |
NKE, |
8.1% | 5.8% | 62% | $124.85 | $126.15 | 1% |
| Marriott International Inc. Class A |
MAR, |
7.5% | -1.2% | 30% | $152.53 | $172.81 | 13% |
| BorgWarner Inc. |
BWA, |
7.1% | 15.3% | 53% | $42.24 | $46.93 | 11% |
| Tractor Supply Co. |
TSCO, |
6.8% | 19.0% | 61% | $217.48 | $232.34 | 7% |
| Yum! Brands Inc. |
YUM, |
6.7% | 6.4% | 47% | $129.76 | $137.79 | 6% |
| Dollar General Corp. |
DG, |
6.7% | 10.9% | 67% | $241.05 | $267.54 | 11% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Among the companies on this list that didn’t suffer sales declines from 2019 levels, Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
is expected to achieve the highest two-year sales CAGR through 2022.
Dollar General Corp.
DG,
is the only company to appear on this list based on consensus sales growth estimates and the Jefferies recommended list.
Don’t miss: These 15 Dividend Aristocrat stocks have been the best income builders
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Following a sharp and sustained rise in interest rates, U.S. stocks have taken a broad beating this year.
But 2023 may bring very different circumstances.
Below are lists of analysts’ favorite stocks among the benchmark S&P 500
SPX,
the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
MID
and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index
SML
that are expected to rise the most over the next year. Those lists are followed by a summary of opinions of all 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA.
Stocks rallied on Dec. 13 when the November CPI report showed a much slower inflation pace than economists had expected. Investors were also anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee’s next monetary policy announcement on Dec. 14. The consensus among economists polled by FactSet is for the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate by 0.50% to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75%.
Read: 5 things to watch when the Fed makes its interest-rate decision
A 0.50% increase would be a slowdown from the four previous increases of 0.75%. The rate began 2022 in a range of zero to 0.25%, where it had sat since March 2020.
A pivot for the Fed Reserve and the possibility that the federal funds rate will reach its “terminal” rate (the highest for this cycle) in the near term could set the stage for a broad rally for stocks in 2023.
Among the S&P 500, 92 stocks are rated “buy” or the equivalent by at least 75% of analysts working for brokerage firms. That number itself is interesting — at the end of 2021, 93 of the S&P 500 had this distinction. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has declined 16% in 2022, with all sectors down except for energy, which has risen 53%, and the utilities sector, which his risen 1% (both excluding dividends).
Here are the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 with at least 75% “buy” or equivalent ratings that analysts expect to rise the most over the next year, based on consensus price targets:
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Closing price – Dec. 12 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Share “buy” ratings | Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12 |
| EQT Corp. | EQT | Oil and Gas Production | $36.91 | $59.70 | 62% | 78% | 69% |
| Catalent Inc. | CTLT | Pharmaceuticals | $45.50 | $72.42 | 59% | 75% | -64% |
| Amazon.com Inc. | AMZN | Internet Retail | $90.55 | $136.02 | 50% | 91% | -46% |
| Global Payments Inc. | GPN | Misc. Commercial Services | $99.64 | $147.43 | 48% | 75% | -26% |
| Signature Bank | SBNY | Regional Banks | $122.73 | $180.44 | 47% | 78% | -62% |
| Salesforce Inc. | CRM | Software | $133.11 | $195.59 | 47% | 80% | -48% |
| Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. Class A | BIO | Medical Specialties | $418.28 | $591.00 | 41% | 100% | -45% |
| Zoetis Inc. Class A | ZTS | Pharmaceuticals | $152.86 | $212.80 | 39% | 87% | -37% |
| Delta Air Lines Inc. | DAL | Airlines | $34.77 | $48.31 | 39% | 90% | -11% |
| Diamondback Energy Inc. | FANG | Oil and Gas Production | $134.21 | $182.33 | 36% | 84% | 24% |
| Caesars Entertainment Inc | CZR | Casinos/ Gaming | $50.27 | $67.79 | 35% | 81% | -46% |
| Alphabet Inc. Class A | GOOGL | Internet Software/ Services | $93.31 | $125.70 | 35% | 92% | -36% |
| Halliburton Co. | HAL | Oilfield Services/ Equipment | $34.30 | $45.95 | 34% | 86% | 50% |
| Alaska Air Group Inc. | ALK | Airlines | $45.75 | $61.08 | 34% | 93% | -12% |
| Targa Resources Corp. | TRGP | Gas Distributors | $70.42 | $93.95 | 33% | 95% | 35% |
| Charles River Laboratories International Inc. | CRL | Misc. Commercial Services | $201.94 | $269.25 | 33% | 88% | -46% |
| ServiceNow Inc. | NOW | Information Technology Services | $401.64 | $529.83 | 32% | 92% | -38% |
| Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. | TTWO | Software | $102.61 | $135.04 | 32% | 79% | -42% |
| EOG Resources Inc. | EOG | Oil and Gas Production | $124.06 | $158.24 | 28% | 82% | 40% |
| Southwest Airlines Co. | LUV | Airlines | $38.94 | $49.56 | 27% | 76% | -9% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Most of the companies on the S&P 500 list expected to soar in 2023 have seen large declines in 2022. But the company at the top of the list, EQT Corp.
EQT,
is an exception. The stock has risen 69% in 2022 and is expected to add another 62% over the next 12 months. Analysts expect the company’s earnings per share to double during 2023 (in part from its expected acquisition of THQ), after nearly a four-fold EPS increase in 2022.
Shares of Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN
are expected to soar 50% over the next year, following a decline of 46% so far in 2022. If the shares were to rise 50% from here to the price target of $136.02, they would still be 18% below their closing price of 166.72 at the end of 2021.
Read: Here’s why Amazon is Citi’s top internet stock idea
You can see the earnings estimates and more for any stock in this article by clicking on its ticker.
Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
The lists of favored stocks are limited to those covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.
Among components of the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index, there are 84 stocks with at least 75% “buy” ratings. Here at the 20 expected to rise the most over the next year:
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Closing price – Dec. 12 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Share “buy” ratings | Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12 |
| Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. | ARWR | Biotechnology | $31.85 | $69.69 | 119% | 83% | -52% |
| Lantheus Holdings Inc. | LNTH | Medical Specialties | $54.92 | $102.00 | 86% | 100% | 90% |
| Progyny Inc. | PGNY | Misc. Commercial Services | $31.21 | $55.57 | 78% | 100% | -38% |
| Coherent Corp. | COHR | Electronic Equipment/ Instruments | $35.41 | $60.56 | 71% | 84% | -48% |
| Exelixis Inc. | EXEL | Biotechnology | $16.08 | $26.07 | 62% | 81% | -12% |
| Darling Ingredients Inc. | DAR | Food: Specialty/ Candy | $61.17 | $97.36 | 59% | 93% | -12% |
| Perrigo Co. PLC | PRGO | Pharmaceuticals | $31.83 | $49.25 | 55% | 100% | -18% |
| Mattel Inc. | MAT | Recreational Products | $17.39 | $26.58 | 53% | 87% | -19% |
| ACI Worldwide Inc. | ACIW | Software | $20.75 | $31.40 | 51% | 83% | -40% |
| Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. | MODG | Recreational Products | $21.99 | $32.91 | 50% | 83% | -20% |
| Dycom Industries Inc. | DY | Engineering and Construction | $86.03 | $128.13 | 49% | 100% | -8% |
| Travel + Leisure Co. | TNL | Hotels/ Resorts/ Cruiselines | $37.98 | $56.00 | 47% | 75% | -31% |
| Frontier Communications Parent Inc. | FYBR | Telecommunications | $25.21 | $36.18 | 44% | 82% | -15% |
| Manhattan Associates Inc. | MANH | Software | $120.06 | $171.80 | 43% | 88% | -23% |
| MP Materials Corp Class A | MP | Other Metals/ Minerals | $31.39 | $44.79 | 43% | 92% | -31% |
| Lumentum Holdings Inc. | LITE | Electrical Products | $54.45 | $76.44 | 40% | 76% | -49% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corp. | THC | Hospital/ Nursing Management | $44.22 | $62.00 | 40% | 80% | -46% |
| Repligen Corp. | RGEN | Pharmaceuticals | $166.88 | $233.10 | 40% | 82% | -37% |
| STAAR Surgical Co. | STAA | Medical Specialties | $59.57 | $82.67 | 39% | 82% | -35% |
| Carlisle Cos. Inc. | CSL | Building Products | $251.99 | $348.33 | 38% | 75% | 2% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Among companies in the S&P Small Cap 600 Index, 91 are rated “buy” or the equivalent by at least 75% of analysts. Here are the 20 with the highest 12-month upside potential indicated by consensus price targets:
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Closing price – Dec. 12 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Share “buy” ratings | Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12 |
| UniQure NV | QURE | Biotechnology | $22.99 | $51.29 | 123% | 95% | 11% |
| Cara Therapeutics Inc. | CARA | Biotechnology | $11.34 | $23.63 | 108% | 88% | -7% |
| Vir Biotechnology Inc. | VIR | Biotechnology | $25.50 | $53.00 | 108% | 75% | -39% |
| Dynavax Technologies Corp. | DVAX | Biotechnology | $11.22 | $23.20 | 107% | 100% | -20% |
| Thryv Holdings Inc. | THRY | Advertising/ Marketing Services | $18.40 | $36.75 | 100% | 100% | -55% |
| Artivion Inc. | AORT | Medical Specialties | $12.93 | $23.13 | 79% | 83% | -36% |
| Cytokinetics Inc. | CYTK | Pharmaceuticals | $38.33 | $67.43 | 76% | 100% | -16% |
| Harsco Corp. | HSC | Environmental Services | $7.17 | $12.30 | 72% | 80% | -57% |
| Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. | LGND | Pharmaceuticals | $64.80 | $110.83 | 71% | 100% | -35% |
| Corcept Therapeutics Inc. | CORT | Pharmaceuticals | $20.84 | $34.20 | 64% | 80% | 5% |
| Payoneer Global Inc. | PAYO | Misc. Commercial Services | $5.70 | $9.33 | 64% | 100% | -22% |
| Xencor Inc. | XNCR | Biotechnology | $28.69 | $46.71 | 63% | 93% | -28% |
| Pacira Biosciences Inc. | PCRX | Pharmaceuticals | $45.50 | $72.90 | 60% | 80% | -24% |
| BioLife Solutions Inc. | BLFS | Chemicals | $19.72 | $31.38 | 59% | 89% | -47% |
| Customers Bancorp Inc. | CUBI | Regional Banks | $30.00 | $47.63 | 59% | 75% | -54% |
| ModivCare Inc. | MODV | Other Transportation | $92.22 | $145.83 | 58% | 100% | -38% |
| Stride Inc. | LRN | Consumer Services | $32.56 | $51.25 | 57% | 100% | -2% |
| Ranger Oil Corp. Class A | ROCC | Oil and Gas Production | $36.98 | $58.00 | 57% | 100% | 37% |
| Outfront Media Inc. | OUT | Real Estate Investment Trusts | $17.59 | $27.00 | 53% | 83% | -34% |
| Walker & Dunlop Inc. | WD | Finance/ Rental/ Leasing | $82.22 | $125.20 | 52% | 100% | -46% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Here are all 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ranked by how much analysts expect their prices to rise over the next year:
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Closing price – Dec. 12 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Share “buy” ratings | Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12 |
| Salesforce Inc. | CRM | Software | $133.11 | $195.59 | 47% | 80% | -48% |
| Walt Disney Co. | DIS | Movies/ Entertainment | $94.66 | $119.60 | 26% | 82% | -39% |
| Apple Inc. | AAPL | Telecommunications Equipment | $144.49 | $173.70 | 20% | 74% | -19% |
| Verizon Communications Inc. | VZ | Telecommunications | $37.95 | $44.60 | 18% | 21% | -27% |
| Visa Inc. Class A | V | Misc.s Commercial Services | $214.59 | $249.33 | 16% | 86% | -1% |
| Microsoft Corp. | MSFT | Software | $252.51 | $293.06 | 16% | 91% | -25% |
| Chevron Corp. | CVX | Integrated Oil | $169.75 | $191.20 | 13% | 54% | 45% |
| Cisco Systems Inc. | CSCO | Information Technology Services | $49.30 | $53.76 | 9% | 44% | -22% |
| UnitedHealth Group Inc. | UNH | Managed Health Care | $545.86 | $593.30 | 9% | 85% | 9% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc. | GS | Investment Banks/ Brokers | $363.18 | $392.63 | 8% | 59% | -5% |
| Walmart Inc. | WMT | Specialty Stores | $148.02 | $159.86 | 8% | 72% | 2% |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co. | JPM | Banks | $134.21 | $143.84 | 7% | 59% | -15% |
| Home Depot Inc. | HD | Home Improvement Chains | $327.98 | $346.61 | 6% | 61% | -21% |
| American Express Co. | AXP | Finance/ Rental/ Leasing | $157.31 | $164.57 | 5% | 43% | -4% |
| McDonald’s Corp. | MCD | Restaurants | $276.62 | $288.67 | 4% | 72% | 3% |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | Pharmaceuticals | $177.84 | $185.35 | 4% | 36% | 4% |
| Coca-Cola Co. | KO | Beverages: Non-Alcoholic | $63.97 | $66.62 | 4% | 73% | 8% |
| Boeing Co. | BA | Aerospace and Defense | $186.27 | $192.69 | 3% | 77% | -7% |
| Intel Corp. | INTC | Semiconductors | $28.69 | $29.54 | 3% | 13% | -44% |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. | WBA | Drugstore Chains | $41.06 | $42.24 | 3% | 17% | -21% |
| Merck & Co. Inc. | MRK | Pharmaceuticals | $108.97 | $110.62 | 2% | 65% | 42% |
| Caterpillar Inc. | CAT | Trucks/ Construction/ Farm Machinery | $233.06 | $236.23 | 1% | 41% | 13% |
| Honeywell International Inc. | HON | Aerospace and Defense | $214.50 | $217.35 | 1% | 54% | 3% |
| Nike Inc. Class B | NKE | Apparel/ Footwear | $112.07 | $112.58 | 0% | 64% | -33% |
| 3M Co. | MMM | Industrial Conglomerates | $126.85 | $127.30 | 0% | 5% | -29% |
| Procter & Gamble Co. | PG | Household/ Personal Care | $152.47 | $150.22 | -1% | 59% | -7% |
| Travelers Companies Inc. | TRV | Multi-Line Insurance | $187.11 | $184.24 | -2% | 18% | 20% |
| Amgen Inc. | AMGN | Biotechnology | $276.78 | $264.79 | -4% | 24% | 23% |
| Dow Inc. | DOW | Chemicals | $51.11 | $48.73 | -5% | 15% | -10% |
| International Business Machines Corp. | IBM | Information Technology Services | $149.21 | $140.29 | -6% | 33% | 12% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Don’t miss: 10 Dividend Aristocrat stocks expected by analysts to rise up to 54% in 2023
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Despite worries about inflation and an impending recession, there is at least one sign that some bullish market technical analysts might latch onto.
An upbeat golden cross appears to be forming in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
more than nine months after a bearish death cross formed back in March, as the hawkish agenda of the Federal Reserve shattered bullishness on Wall Street.
A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average for an asset price trades above the 200-day MA, while a death cross, comparatively, is when the 50-day falls below the long-term average.
The 50-day moving average for the Dow stands at 32,200.32, at last check Friday afternoon, while the 200-day sits at 32,460.71, a roughly 260-point difference that could be traversed in the coming week or two, based on its current trajectory.
A golden cross would mark the first for the Dow industrials since 2020 of August, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The bullish chart formation also would appear at an odd time for investors, with an apparent uptrend materializing in the stock market, even as the threat of a recession in 2023 grows.
See: Goldman Sachs CEO says recession is likely, with 35% chance of a soft landing
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is anticipating a unique recession unlike others that we’ve seen in U.S. history.
“The new macro regime is playing out. We think that requires a new, dynamic playbook based on views of market risk appetite and pricing of macro damage,” wrote BlackRock’s Investment Institute team led by Jean Boivin.
The BlackRock team said markets aren’t necessarily pricing in the recession that is being predicted.
“Central banks appear set on doing ‘whatever it takes’ to fight inflation, making recession foretold, in our view,” the team at BlackRock wrote.
As MarketWatch’s Tomi Kilgore notes, crosses, overall, aren’t necessarily good market-timing indicators.
Check out: MarketWatch’s live blog of the market
On top of that, MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert concludes that the U.S. stock market on average has performed no better in the wake of a golden crosses as it did at other times.
In many cases, a golden cross can help put an asset’s move into perspective, however, they tend to be well telegraphed.
Interestingly, the recession is also being widely predicted and some don’t think investors are getting the memo. As BlackRock notes, investors aren’t reflecting the damage that is to come, particularly as earnings expectations from American companies are right-sized.
So, it might be worth it for investors to take any golden crosses in assets with a grain of salt.
So far, the Dow industrials have outperformed over the past three months, up about 5%, compared with a decline of 2.5% for the S&P 500
SPX,
and an 8.2% drop for the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
Over the past three months, the Dow industrials have recent in aggregate on the back of gains in shares of Caterpillar
CAT,
Boeing Co.
BA,
Merck & Co.
MRK,
IBM
IBM,
and Travelers Cos.
TRV,
For the year so far, the Dow is down 7%, while the S&P 500 is off 17% and the Nasdaq is down nearly 30%.
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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes recorded their worst day in almost a month on Monday, after a hotter-than-expected U.S. services-sector reading fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to be even more aggressive in its inflation battle.
Stocks finished mixed on Friday, although they clinched gains last week, following a robust November jobs report, which stoked fears that inflation might not be so easily defeated.
Strong wage growth numbers released Friday were followed up on Monday by a robust reading for the U.S. services sector — both of which helped to stoke fears that the Fed’s interest-rate hikes, along with the central bank’s modest balance-sheet unwind, haven’t had much of an impact on the tight labor market.
The ISM barometer of U.S. business conditions in the service sector came in stronger than expected, rising to 56.5% in November, a healthy showing that signals the U.S. economy is still expanding at a steady pace.
“If nothing else, the ISM services report is being interpreted as very strong, and thus the economy is overheating and that means more Fed tightening,” said Will Compernolle, a senior economist at FHN Financial in New York. “Consumer resilience has proven to be more intense than I would have expected. In the two most interest-rate sensitive sectors — housing and autos — tightening has channeled into markets in meaningful ways.”
But there has been so much pent-up demand, that higher interest rates haven’t been cooling overall spending as much as the Fed would like because companies are still having to fill a backlog of orders, he said via phone.
In other economic data, the final November S&P Global U.S. services PMI edged up to 46.2 from 46.1, but remained in contractionary territory.
November jobs data released on Friday showed average hourly wages grew over the past year by more than 5% as of November, beating economists’ expectations and stoking concerns that robust wage growth would continue to fuel inflation, market strategists said.
Worries about a more-aggressive Fed also helped to drive Treasury yields higher, adding to the pressure on stocks. The yield on the 10-year note rose 9.6 basis points to 3.6% on Monday. Treasury yields move inversely to prices, and yields had fallen sharply over the past month, driven by shifting expectations about the pace of Fed rate hikes.
Monday’s ISM services figure “surprised to the upside, suggesting that the economy is still running above its long-run sustainable path and that the Fed is going to have to slow the economy more than expected in 2023,” Bill Adams, the Dallas-based chief economist for Comerica Inc. CMA, said via phone.
In other markets news, signs that China’s government is easing its COVID restrictions helped Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index
HSI,
finish with a 4.5% gain.
See also: Chinese ADRs and casino operators rally on signs of easing COVID
Meanwhile, oil futures ended lower on Monday, a day after Sunday’s decision by OPEC and its allies to keep production quotas unchanged.
Falling equity prices helped drive the CBOE Volatility Index
VIX,
also known as the VIX, back above 20 on Monday. The volatility gauge had fallen sharply in recent weeks as stocks rallied, potentially signaling complacency that could ultimately hurt stocks, said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a note to clients.
––Jamie Chisholm contributed reporting to this article.
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Say goodbye to mini shampoo bottles.
The EU wants to slash the amount of packaging waste produced across the bloc, banning everything from mini hotel toiletries to throwaway plastic wrapping around some fresh fruit and vegetables.
The proposal is part of the European Commission’s circular economy package, legislation aimed at slashing waste and reducing emissions to help the bloc reach climate neutrality by 2050.
The new rules include mandatory targets for the amount of recycled materials used in plastic packaging and pushes cafés, shops and hotels to switch to reusable, rather than single-use packaging. It calls for all packaging on the EU market to be recyclable by 2030.
Countries will also be told to set up schemes to increase recycling of bottles and cans: Customers would pay a small additional sum on top of their purchase, which is refunded on the bottle’s return.
Packaging is a “key environmental concern,” the Commission said in its preamble to the new rules. The sector is one of the “main users of virgin materials,” hoovering up 40 percent of plastics and 50 percent of paper, and accounting for 36 percent of municipal solid waste.
In 2020, every EU resident generated nearly 180 kilograms of waste, according to new EU data. Paper and cardboard are the main culprit, accounting for 32.7 million tons in 2020, followed by plastic and glass at about 15 million tons each.
“Without action, the EU would see a further 19 percent increase in packaging waste by 2030, and for plastic packaging waste even a 46 percent increase,” according to the Commission.
But its proposal isn’t going down particularly well. Industry groups have pushed back hard against higher reuse targets in recent weeks, while NGOs are accusing the Commission of bowing to those demands and watering down its proposal.
Here are four key points of contention.
One key element of the Commission’s proposal is a ban on some types of single-use packaging in the hospitality sector — such as disposable plates and cups, sugar packets and other condiments, or mini soaps and shampoos.
Businesses won’t let that happen without a fight.
Ever since a first draft of the new rules leaked last month, they’ve been hammering home the argument that the energy and water needed to clean the reusable packaging would outweigh the environmental benefits of moving away from single-use items.
A ban would “require a full cost analysis of businesses in particular energy, water and operational costs,” hospitality lobby HOTREC argued in an emailed statement, adding that the cost of those assessments shouldn’t fall to the businesses.
The rules also set targets for companies to ensure a certain quantity of products are provided in reusable or refillable packaging. For example, 20 percent of takeaway beverage sales made by a café must be served in reusable packaging or using customers’ own containers by 2030, with the target ramping up to 80 percent in 2040. Beer retailers will have to sell 10 percent of their products in refillable bottles by 2030 and 20 percent by 2040.
That’s another sore point for industry.
The Commission should “look at the full life cycle impact of all packaging products,” according to the European Paper Packaging Alliance lobby. It argues that “scientific evidence shows that recyclable, single-use, paper-based packaging has a lower environmental impact than reusable systems, in takeaway settings as well as in quick service restaurants.”
Industry groups also complain that the proposal unfairly favors reusable packaging over recyclable single-use packaging, meaning wasted money on investments in recycling facilities — even though the text seeks to boost recycling in the bloc. There’s a minimum amount of recycled content that must be used in the manufacturing of certain plastic packaging, for example.
“There’s a real concern for the industry — we don’t know which horse to back now, because the policy itself has conflicting goals,” said Ian Ellington, senior vice president at Pepsico and president of EU soft drinks lobby UNESDA. “I think the likely outcome of that is we would pause some of those investments while we figure out what the regulatory framework is really going to be.”
Brussels seems to have listened: The rules proposed on Wednesday lay down lower targets on what percentage of packaging must be reusable.
But now environmental groups are sounding the alarm, saying the EU needs to focus on boosting reusable packaging rather than relying on recycling as the solution.
Campaigners have argued that positive messaging around recycling could be promoting additional consumption — and additional waste. They also point out that the average recycling rate is only 64.4 percent.
In rowing back the reuse targets in its current proposal, the EU executive “seems to have fallen into industry’s false promises on investments on recycling,” Larissa Copello, a policy officer for Zero Waste Europe said in an emailed statement.
The Commission’s proposal would also ban “superfluous” packaging, like double walls or false bottoms aimed at making products appear to contain more than they do.
That essentially means all packaging should be designed for functionality and to minimize the amount of packaging used.
The idea isn’t going down well with businesses that use distinctive packaging to stand out, such as spirits and perfume manufacturers.
In a letter to the Commission, several lobbies argued the new rules will lead to “standardisation of packaging and have negative competitive repercussions for EU consumers, brands and industry.”
“An awful lot of work goes into presenting your products to the market,” said Adeline Farrelly, secretary-general of the association of European manufacturers of glass containers. “The image of your product, the way it looks and feels is a huge part of the value added product.”
Compostable and bio-based packaging manufacturers will also have to abide by new rules, as such products can jam up recycling processes and take a long time to fully biodegrade in certain environments.
The Commission has designated a “very small list of products” that should be designed for composting — tea bags, filter coffee pods, sticky labels attached to fruit and vegetables, and lightweight plastic carrier bags — while the rest should go into recycling.
The compostable packaging industry isn’t happy about that, saying it will seriously hamper their business.
The new rules are still “effectively … a ban, or sort of very tight control of what can be composted and what can’t,” said Jack McKeivor, the director of public affairs for compostable packaging company TIPA.
“Why would investors want to invest in it? Why would customers want to buy this stuff if they can’t use it for its originally designated purpose?” he added.
The move would jeopardize the EU’s “current leadership role in the sector” and “freeze” further research and investments into such products, a coalition of bioplastic companies wrote in a letter.
The Commission’s proposal will now be examined by the European Parliament and EU countries, but faces a rocky road ahead — a number of MEPs have already sent a letter to the Commission echoing industry concerns.
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Leonie Cater
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Income-seeking investors are looking at an opportunity to scoop up shares of real estate investment trusts. Stocks in that asset class have become more attractive as prices have fallen and cash flow is improving.
Below is a broad screen of REITs that have high dividend yields and are also expected to generate enough excess cash in 2023 to enable increases in dividend payouts.
REITs distribute most of their income to shareholders to maintain their tax-advantaged status. But the group is cyclical, with pressure on share prices when interest rates rise, as they have this year at an unprecedented scale. A slowing growth rate for the group may have also placed a drag on the stocks.
And now, with talk that the Federal Reserve may begin to temper its cycle of interest-rate increases, we may be nearing the time when REIT prices rise in anticipation of an eventual decline in interest rates. The market always looks ahead, which means long-term investors who have been waiting on the sidelines to buy higher-yielding income-oriented investments may have to make a move soon.
During an interview on Nov 28, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, discussed the central bank’s cycle of interest-rate increases meant to reduce inflation.
When asked about the potential timing of the Fed’s “terminal rate” (the peak federal funds rate for this cycle), Bullard said: “Generally speaking, I have advocated that sooner is better, that you do want to get to the right level of the policy rate for the current data and the current situation.”
In August we published this guide to investing in REITs for income. Since the data for that article was pulled on Aug. 24, the S&P 500
SPX,
has declined 4% (despite a 10% rally from its 2022 closing low on Oct. 12), but the benchmark index’s real estate sector has declined 13%.
REITs can be placed broadly into two categories. Mortgage REITs lend money to commercial or residential borrowers and/or invest in mortgage-backed securities, while equity REITs own property and lease it out.
The pressure on share prices can be greater for mortgage REITs, because the mortgage-lending business slows as interest rates rise. In this article we are focusing on equity REITs.
The National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (Nareit) reported that third-quarter funds from operations (FFO) for U.S.-listed equity REITs were up 14% from a year earlier. To put that number in context, the year-over-year growth rate of quarterly FFO has been slowing — it was 35% a year ago. And the third-quarter FFO increase compares to a 23% increase in earnings per share for the S&P 500 from a year earlier, according to FactSet.
The NAREIT report breaks out numbers for 12 categories of equity REITs, and there is great variance in the growth numbers, as you can see here.
FFO is a non-GAAP measure that is commonly used to gauge REITs’ capacity for paying dividends. It adds amortization and depreciation (noncash items) back to earnings, while excluding gains on the sale of property. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) goes further, netting out expected capital expenditures to maintain the quality of property investments.
The slowing FFO growth numbers point to the importance of looking at REITs individually, to see if expected cash flow is sufficient to cover dividend payments.
For 2022 through Nov. 28, the S&P 500 has declined 17%, while the real estate sector has fallen 27%, excluding dividends.
Over the very long term, through interest-rate cycles and the liquidity-driven bull market that ended this year, equity REITs have fared well, with an average annual return of 9.3% for 20 years, compared to an average return of 9.6% for the S&P 500, both with dividends reinvested, according to FactSet.
This performance might surprise some investors, when considering the REITs’ income focus and the S&P 500’s heavy weighting for rapidly growing technology companies.
For a broad screen of equity REITs, we began with the Russell 3000 Index
RUA,
which represents 98% of U.S. companies by market capitalization.
We then narrowed the list to 119 equity REITs that are followed by at least five analysts covered by FactSet for which AFFO estimates are available.
If we divide the expected 2023 AFFO by the current share price, we have an estimated AFFO yield, which can be compared with the current dividend yield to see if there is expected “headroom” for dividend increases.
For example, if we look at Vornado Realty Trust
VNO,
the current dividend yield is 8.56%. Based on the consensus 2023 AFFO estimate among analysts polled by FactSet, the expected AFFO yield is only 7.25%. This doesn’t mean that Vornado will cut its dividend and it doesn’t even mean the company won’t raise its payout next year. But it might make it less likely to do so.
Among the 119 equity REITs, 104 have expected 2023 AFFO headroom of at least 1.00%.
Here are the 20 equity REITs from our screen with the highest current dividend yields that have at least 1% expected AFFO headroom:
| Company | Ticker | Dividend yield | Estimated 2023 AFFO yield | Estimated “headroom” | Market cap. ($mil) | Main concentration |
| Brandywine Realty Trust |
BDN, |
11.52% | 12.82% | 1.30% | $1,132 | Offices |
| Sabra Health Care REIT Inc. |
SBRA, |
9.70% | 12.04% | 2.34% | $2,857 | Health care |
| Medical Properties Trust Inc. |
MPW, |
9.18% | 11.46% | 2.29% | $7,559 | Health care |
| SL Green Realty Corp. |
SLG, |
9.16% | 10.43% | 1.28% | $2,619 | Offices |
| Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. |
HPP, |
9.12% | 12.69% | 3.57% | $1,546 | Offices |
| Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. |
OHI, |
9.05% | 10.13% | 1.08% | $6,936 | Health care |
| Global Medical REIT Inc. |
GMRE, |
8.75% | 10.59% | 1.84% | $629 | Health care |
| Uniti Group Inc. |
UNIT, |
8.30% | 25.00% | 16.70% | $1,715 | Communications infrastructure |
| EPR Properties |
EPR, |
8.19% | 12.24% | 4.05% | $3,023 | Leisure properties |
| CTO Realty Growth Inc. |
CTO, |
7.51% | 9.34% | 1.83% | $381 | Retail |
| Highwoods Properties Inc. |
HIW, |
6.95% | 8.82% | 1.86% | $3,025 | Offices |
| National Health Investors Inc. |
NHI, |
6.75% | 8.32% | 1.57% | $2,313 | Senior housing |
| Douglas Emmett Inc. |
DEI, |
6.74% | 10.30% | 3.55% | $2,920 | Offices |
| Outfront Media Inc. |
OUT, |
6.68% | 11.74% | 5.06% | $2,950 | Billboards |
| Spirit Realty Capital Inc. |
SRC, |
6.62% | 9.07% | 2.45% | $5,595 | Retail |
| Broadstone Net Lease Inc. |
BNL, |
6.61% | 8.70% | 2.08% | $2,879 | Industial |
| Armada Hoffler Properties Inc. |
AHH, |
6.38% | 7.78% | 1.41% | $807 | Offices |
| Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. |
IIPR, |
6.24% | 7.53% | 1.29% | $3,226 | Health care |
| Simon Property Group Inc. |
SPG, |
6.22% | 9.55% | 3.33% | $37,847 | Retail |
| LTC Properties Inc. |
LTC, |
5.99% | 7.60% | 1.60% | $1,541 | Senior housing |
| Source: FactSet | ||||||
Click on the tickers for more about each company. You should read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
The list includes each REIT’s main property investment type. However, many REITs are highly diversified. The simplified categories on the table may not cover all of their investment properties.
Knowing what a REIT invests in is part of the research you should do on your own before buying any individual stock. For arbitrary examples, some investors may wish to steer clear of exposure to certain areas of retail or hotels, or they may favor health-care properties.
Several of the REITs that passed the screen have relatively small market capitalizations. You might be curious to see how the most widely held REITs fared in the screen. So here’s another list of the 20 largest U.S. REITs among the 119 that passed the first cut, sorted by market cap as of Nov. 28:
| Company | Ticker | Dividend yield | Estimated 2023 AFFO yield | Estimated “headroom” | Market cap. ($mil) | Main concentration |
| Prologis Inc. |
PLD, |
2.84% | 4.36% | 1.52% | $102,886 | Warehouses and logistics |
| American Tower Corp. |
AMT, |
2.66% | 4.82% | 2.16% | $99,593 | Communications infrastructure |
| Equinix Inc. |
EQIX, |
1.87% | 4.79% | 2.91% | $61,317 | Data centers |
| Crown Castle Inc. |
CCI, |
4.55% | 5.42% | 0.86% | $59,553 | Wireless Infrastructure |
| Public Storage |
PSA, |
2.77% | 5.35% | 2.57% | $50,680 | Self-storage |
| Realty Income Corp. |
O, |
4.82% | 6.46% | 1.64% | $38,720 | Retail |
| Simon Property Group Inc. |
SPG, |
6.22% | 9.55% | 3.33% | $37,847 | Retail |
| VICI Properties Inc. |
VICI, |
4.69% | 6.21% | 1.52% | $32,013 | Leisure properties |
| SBA Communications Corp. Class A |
SBAC, |
0.97% | 4.33% | 3.36% | $31,662 | Communications infrastructure |
| Welltower Inc. |
WELL, |
3.66% | 4.76% | 1.10% | $31,489 | Health care |
| Digital Realty Trust Inc. |
DLR, |
4.54% | 6.18% | 1.64% | $30,903 | Data centers |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. |
ARE, |
3.17% | 4.87% | 1.70% | $24,451 | Offices |
| AvalonBay Communities Inc. |
AVB, |
3.78% | 5.69% | 1.90% | $23,513 | Multifamily residential |
| Equity Residential |
EQR, |
4.02% | 5.36% | 1.34% | $23,503 | Multifamily residential |
| Extra Space Storage Inc. |
EXR, |
3.93% | 5.83% | 1.90% | $20,430 | Self-storage |
| Invitation Homes Inc. |
INVH, |
2.84% | 5.12% | 2.28% | $18,948 | Single-family residental |
| Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. |
MAA, |
3.16% | 5.18% | 2.02% | $18,260 | Multifamily residential |
| Ventas Inc. |
VTR, |
4.07% | 5.95% | 1.88% | $17,660 | Senior housing |
| Sun Communities Inc. |
SUI, |
2.51% | 4.81% | 2.30% | $17,346 | Multifamily residential |
| Source: FactSet | ||||||
Simon Property Group Inc.
SPG,
is the only REIT to make both lists.
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Press Release
–
Nov 8, 2022
AMSTERDAM, November 8, 2022 (Newswire.com)
–
Rockstart, global early-stage investor and accelerator, announces its co-investment in Biotic, a Rockstart Agrifood portfolio company. The € 2m round was led by Paseo Rosalez, UM6P Ventures, The Yield Lab Asia Pacific, Norfolk Green Ventures, Cambridge Agritech and TenNine.vc, alongside with Rockstart. The startup plans to use the funding to build a plant, optimize processes, and increase production capacity.
Biotic envisions a world where plastic is no longer a concern. Their mission is to produce bio-based and safe alternatives to fossil-based plastics, a ~ $500 bn market, at a competitive cost to fossil-based plastics. As a commodity manufacturer producing bioplastic flakes or pellets, their customers range across all industries. Biotic’s thermoplastic polymers fit a wide range of plastic applications, from very flexible to very ruggedized products. Their polymers fit with existing production lines and industrial needs, ensuring a seamless transition. Biotic’s process extracts the carbon source of biomass, macroalgae, which is naturally grown in every ocean all year long and has positive environmental effects in terms of CO2, is free of endotoxins, and does not compete with arable land. Biotic uses saline water in the process, reducing energy consumption and contamination risks.
Adi Goldman, CEO & Co-founder, Biotic, states:
“We have successfully accomplished multiple polymers’ production scaling up, achieved non-sterile and continuous processes, and reduced process costs while conducting pilot projects with Fortune 500 companies. The Seed proceeds will be used to establish our pilot plant, expand the team, enhance process optimizations to increase efficiencies and yields, expedite our in-house capabilities of production to hundreds of kilograms of PHBV polymers monthly, increase the number of produced polymer types, and achieve market validation by strategic corporate partners. We are thrilled to have accumulated such a relevant, strategic, and diverse group of investors that have both the expertise and network to support our growth across regions and industries.”
Commenting on the round, Mark Durno, Managing Partner AgriFood, Rockstart, also states:
“Plastic production has grown faster than any other material since the 1970s, a worrying trend in light of climate change. Adi and Eran have demonstrated that they understand the complexity of this challenge and the need for solutions that can fit our current manufacturing and user requirements. This is our third investment in Biotic, and we are proud to be supporting the company on their mission to enable the transition from fossil fuel-derived plastics.”
Quote from Albert Douer, Paseo Rosales
“Food security and cost are indispensable for the well-being and survival of humankind. Plastics have become indispensable in our food supply chain, while also generating a huge disposal problem. Solving the problems generated by plastics needs to be done without increasing food waste or incrementing food costs. It is indispensable that solving the plastic problem does not affect the poorest sectors of society. Biotic does just that by developing a cost-effective material that replaces petroleum-based plastics with a natural, bio-degradable material that can be used for existing food packaging applications. We bring industrial and market expertise that will help Biotic quickly scale as it develops its technology. Paseo Rosales already has several investments in the Israeli enviro-tech sector, including UBQ Materials, where it was also an early investor and has played a key part in its growth.”
“UM6P Ventures is excited to provide both capital and scientific resources through our subject matter experts and Material Sciences Lab as Biotic continues to increase its processes, production capabilities, and talent pool. We look forward to seeing not only their expansion, but the continuance of their positive impact on the environment,” said Yasser Biaz, CEO, UM6P Ventures.
Uros Lekic, Founder TenNine.vc comments:
“Plastics are indispensable for humanity’s progress, and this will not significantly change. Biotic is pioneering a promising technology to commoditise biodegradable plastic materials for a span of most relevant present and future applications. TenNine’s community invests in societal missions. Eliminating plastic waste certainly qualifies as one.”
Claire Pribula, Managing Director. The Yield Lab Asia Pacific, also comments:
“Biotic’s mission is to reach a zero-plastic future. With its unique fermentation innovation based on easily grown seaweed, it not only produces completely biodegradable and compostable plastic substitutes, but by ocean farming seaweed, precious arable land may be freed to be used for nutritional food crop production purposes. This is sustainable agriculture at its finest”, says Claire Pribula, Managing Director of The Yield Lab Asia Pacific. “For the packing and food industry, it is important that any plastic replacement easily fit within their own production process, Biotic’s innovation does this while being completely biodegradable and leaving no chemicals in the soil. 400M tons of plastic enter our global waste system annually with 11M tons flowing into our Oceans, and if we do nothing, this could triple by 2040. We salute the founders Adi Goldman and Eran Perlstein and their team as they work to achieve Biotic’s vision.”
The AgriFood fund is Rockstart’s first fund launched in 2019. Rockstart AgriFood has 41 portfolio companies to date, with 37 investments in 2022 alone making Rockstart one of the most active AgriFood investors in the world. The Rockstart AgriFood portfolio companies have collectively raised more than €40m in total thus far.
Source: BIOTIC
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Boeing
has reported positive free cash flow in only one quarter in more than three years. Whether the company generated more than it burned through in the three months through September, and how much it will produce in coming quarters, holds the key to the stock’s next move.
Wednesday morning, B
oeing
(ticker: BA) is due to report third-quarter numbers. Wall Street is looking for earnings of about 10 cents a share from $17.8 billion in sales, a significant improvement from the second quarter, when
Boeing
reported an adjusted loss of 37 cents a share from sales of $16.7 billion.
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Sustainability presumes that resources are finite and should be used conservatively and wisely. Honig Vineyard and Winery operates under that premise and is taking its philosophy one step further.
Press Release
–
Oct 25, 2022
NAPA, Calif., October 25, 2022 (Newswire.com)
–
Family-owned Honig Vineyard & Winery is eliminating the capsule (also known as foil) from its Classic Sauvignon Blanc bottle. This wine, which the family began producing in 1980, can be found in all 50 states and in 30 countries.
This is a bold move for the Honigs, who are known for their unique package design featuring the view of their Rutherford property on the inside of the back label. “When we refreshed our packaging in 2010, the capsule was a part of the overall design aesthetic. We wanted to be sure that the bottle was elegant from top to bottom,” says Marketing Director Regina Weinstein. “As we consistently work on minimizing our impact to the environment, we decided to remove the foil to eliminate waste. Additionally, it saves energy as well since we will not be running the spinner during bottling.”
“The foil on top of the bottle is purely decorative,” says Stephanie Honig. “There is no functional or qualitative reason to have it. When a bottle of wine is opened, the foil is removed and discarded. Capsules are made from materials that are mined from the earth, cost a lot to produce, and end up in landfills as they are rarely recyclable. If taking away the foil reduces our carbon footprint, then it’s a no-brainer. We also created a branding message on the cork, so our customers would know that removing the foil was intentional, and not a missing piece. Removing the foil is the logical next step in the ongoing process of creating more sustainable packaging. We also use lighter-weight glass bottles, a closure made from natural cork that is bio-sourced and sustainable, and we are currently investigating 100% recycled paper for our labels.”
The Honig family is known as leaders in sustainable practices. Honig Vineyard & Winery was one of the first 17 wineries to receive the California Sustainable Winegrowing certification, and winery President Michael Honig chaired the first California initiative to develop the “Code of Sustainable Winegrowing Practices,” a voluntary program establishing statewide guidelines for sustainable farming and winemaking. The winery is powered by solar energy and utilizes sustainable farming practices in the vineyard. Every aspect of the business is reviewed and updated on an ongoing basis to ensure that best practices are in place, from water and pest management to recycling and composting.
Honig Vineyard & Winery — P.O. Box 406 — Rutherford, CA 94573 — www.honigwine.com
Source: Honig Vineyard and Winery
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