After an exciting Sunday of action, we have one more opportunity to wager on professional football if we so choose. So which plays do our analysts like the most?
Betting analyst Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN analyst Seth Walder, fantasy and sports betting analyst André Snellings, plus Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their top plays.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
With Mac Jones returning for the Patriots, what are your thoughts on the spread and total for this game? Who are you taking?
Fortenbaugh: A one-dimensional offense (of which Chicago is one, thanks to a hideous passing attack) is a recipe for disaster against a Bill Belichick-coached team because he’s a master at making the opposition play left-handed. So you have to ask yourself, “Do I trust Justin Fields, who ranks 32nd in the NFL in QB rating at 72.7, to go out and win me this bet?” My answer to that question is a resounding, “No.” I hooked a handful of 6-point teasers into New England on Monday night and would also lay a half unit on the Patriots at -7.5, not to mention an under bet as well.
Snellings: If Jones indeed back, I’ll go with the under. In three games before getting injured, Jones led the Patriots to just 15.7 points per game, and they combined with their opponents to go under this line in two of those three games. Similarly, Fields has led the Bears to an average of 15.5 points per game and they’ve combined with their opponents to go under this line in four out of six games. These are two teams that are better on defense than offense and have struggled to score.
Schatz: The Bears are just a very bad team, ranked 31st in DVOA right now and 30th in ESPN’s FPI. The Patriots have been playing very well over the last couple of weeks. Yes, they’re going back to Jones from Bailey Zappe, but the larger sample of Jones’ career (21 total games, as opposed to just the three games from earlier this year) suggests that Jones is the better quarterback. I have faith in Belichick building a Patriots defense that completely shuts down Fields and the entire Bears offense. Meanwhile, the Patriots will run all over a Bears defense that ranks 27th in run defense DVOA. Patriots, all the way.
Walder: FPI has very little faith in Chicago, who it ranks as the third-worst team in the NFL, ahead of only the Panthers and the Brett Rypien-led Broncos. Sacks are a serious problem for Fields. I contend they are mostly on him, but that’s really neither here nor there when forecasting this game. The Patriots defense is legit, ranking fifth in efficiency this season. Put it all together and the model thinks New England should be 9.9 point favorites. I’ll take the Patriots.
Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for over 200 yards over the last two games. The Bears have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, but are one of the worst against the run. What are your thoughts on Stevenson to finish with the most rushing yards this season (30-1), as well as his props for Monday night?
Snellings: With Damien Harris having returned to full practice on Thursday, I’m expecting rushing production in the 60-70 yard range for Stevenson, and receiving production in the low-20s as opposed to the 266 total yards he produced over the last two weeks with Harris out. In other words, Stevenson could still be in for a solid game in a time share with Harris, especially through the air, and I could still see him as a likely candidate to score a touchdown.
Fortenbaugh: I do love Stevenson, but the return of Harris makes this a pass for me. He simply won’t record enough touches.
Schatz: I agree with Fortenbaugh here. Bill Belichick loves his RB committees too much for Stevenson to lead the league in yardage for the season. The question of how much Harris will play scares me off of going either over or under on Stevenson’s Monday night props.
The Bears have only thrown the ball 35% of the time, with 141 attempts on 402 plays — lowest in the league. However, Fields’ rushing yards prop has gone over in five of his last six away games. It’s at 43.5 for Monday night. What are your thoughts on Chicago’s player props? Would you take any of them for Monday night?
Fortenbaugh: I’d be looking to play unders, especially when it comes to Chicago’s rushing attack. I think Belichick is going to stack the box and dare Fields to beat New England with his arm, something the second-year quarterback has been unable to do throughout his brief time in the NFL.
Snellings: I’d take Fields over 43.5 rushing yards. He’s gone over that mark in each of the last four games, averaging 58.5 yards. I could see Belichick daring Fields to throw and trying to limit the run, but Fields is electric enough with his legs that I still like him to do some damage.
Schatz: I’ll take the over on Fields’ rushing yards because the Patriots historically have trouble with scrambling quarterbacks, in part because they play a lot of man coverage. I agree that the Patriots will look to stack the box and force Fields to throw, but he’ll get out of the pocket for a couple of big runs against this defense.
Walder: I’ll go over for the same reason. The Patriots have gone with man coverage at a 56% rate this season, which is fifth-highest in the NFL. That generally leads to more scrambling opportunities for opposing quarterbacks. The Bears ought to be looking to get Fields to use his legs as much as possible.
What is your best bet for Monday night’s game?
Fortenbaugh: I like the Bears to score under 15.5 total points (+100). This Chicago offense is in for a loooong night.
Walder: I’ll take Darnell Mooney for over 3.5 receptions (+100). I’m slightly nervous about this one because my model, which projects 4.3 receptions for Mooney on Monday, is having a hard time forecasting pass rates as low as what the Bears are putting up because they are such outliers. Still, Mooney is coming off of a 12-target, 7-reception game which I think carries some signal. Plus, the Bears are going to be behind and will have to pass, even if they don’t want to. Mooney is the obvious target.
On Saturday, Clemson turned the ball over four times, trailed by as much as 14, benched its starting QB and won. That, Dabo Swinney said, is the headline.
Got it?
No, don’t ask about that quarterback controversy. It doesn’t exist. Figment of your imagination. Swinney is essentially Kevin Bacon at the end of “Animal House,” standing in the midst of a stampede and yelling, “All is well!”
Swinney spent the entire offseason hyping DJ Uiagalelei, despite his struggles in 2021. The coach has spent the first seven weeks of this season dishing out one “I told you so” after another, including as recently as last week, when he called doubts of Uiagalelei “embarrassing” and a product of “the world we live in now.”
And when Clemson was trailing by 10 and Uiagalelei coughed up his third turnover of the game midway through the third quarter, Swinney came with the hook.
Why? Swinney believed freshman Cade Klubnik could give the offense a spark, and the move worked. Clemson scored on three of its next four drives. Sure, Klubnik completed just two passes in the game, so his inspiration was more Rob Schneider in “The Waterboy” than Bill Pullman in “Independence Day.” But hey, a win is a win.
In the aftermath, Swinney emphatically assured Clemson fans that Uiagalelei is still the starter as the Tigers, now 8-0, head into an off week with their ACC Atlantic Division crown all but assured. They will not play another ranked opponent this year.
play
2:26
Clemson switches quarterbacks in the second half and overcomes four turnovers to beat Syracuse 24-21.
But Swinney is right. The world is a cold, callous place, and so we must also ask the bigger question: Is this an 8-0 team capable of winning a national championship?
Before last season, the answer might have been an emphatic, “Yes!” After all, we’d seen Clemson shrug off mediocrity before and still keep winning. Look back at Swinney’s first national title in the 2016 campaign. That season, the Tigers struggled against Troy, only beat NC State because of a missed chip shot as time expired and lost to Pitt. But Deshaun Watson still found Hunter Renfrow in the back corner of the end zone at Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium in the title game against Alabama, and no one needed to remember those regular-season struggles after that.
But then 2021 happened, and despite its 10-3 finish Clemson was clearly vulnerable. The wins were less destiny than they were rugged determination. That is commendable but perhaps not sustainable.
Clemson needed double overtime to get past Wake Forest and nearly coughed up a big lead a week ago against Florida State. And if not for Syracuse‘s utterly mind-boggling decision to put Sean Tucker into witness protection Saturday — “I felt like he was the one guy who could flat-out beat us,” Swinney said afterward — there’s every reason to think this might be more 2021 than 2016.
And yet, is this question any different from the ones posed at Oregon or Alabama or Michigan and on down the line?
The Ducks demolished UCLA on Saturday and established themselves as the clear front-runner in the Pac-12, but does that matter when they’ve already been curb-stomped by Georgia in the opener?
Should we forget the way the Bulldogs demolished them way back when if the recent data points are far more impressive? Do we need a rematch of a game that was over by the end of the first quarter? It’s complicated.
Ole Miss offered the SEC an alternative to the Crimson Tide, but LSU sent the Rebels scurrying on out of Louisiana like a crawdad in a steam pot, as Brian Kelly would say.
But Lane Kiffin’s crew will still get its shot at Alabama, and if it should win, wouldn’t the Rebels be a playoff team? It’s complicated.
Or how about those Crimson Tide? Nick Saban likely spent this week of practice like Jigsaw, planning ever more sadistic dilemmas for his team to maneuver, but the rat poison was successfully expelled from Alabama’s system with a 30-6 win over Mississippi State. Yes, the Tide have appeared vulnerable against Texas and A&M and lost to Tennessee, but does anyone really think Alabama can’t be a playoff team? Well, it’s complicated.
Despite the easy win, Alabama finished with just 290 yards of total offense — its lowest production in an SEC game since 2014.
Are we sold on Tennessee? Has Georgia just been easing into the season like it’s a warm bath? Is Michigan a fitting adversary for Ohio State?
Max Duggan wasn’t perfect Saturday in the 38-28 TCU win, but he was exceptional when he had to be, and the Horned Frogs’ ground game pounded away at Kansas State until the Wildcats finally gave way. TCU has been tied or behind in the second half of each of its last three games, including against Kansas State’s backup QB on Saturday, all of which might underscore just how narrow the margin is for the Horned Frogs, but it’s a line they’ve yet to cross. Does that make TCU a playoff team? Well, it’s complicated.
If we’re nitpicking, we’ll find nearly all teams left wanting. In other words, it’s all complicated.
But Swinney isn’t nitpicking. Well, sure, he picked a few nits with his starting quarterback Saturday, but bygones are bygones now. The point is, Clemson won. So, too, did Alabama and Oregon and Penn State and Oklahoma State. Their chase continues.
In the end, Clemson is 8-0, one of just six teams (Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio State, Michigan and TCU) left with a zero in the loss column.
And when it comes time for the committee to pick nits and split hairs, that zero looms awfully large because winning every game is the one way to erase all the complications and make the committee’s decision simple.
Nix, Ducks roll past UCLA
We would like to issue a formal apology to Bo Nix. He is not the reason Auburn fans spent four years beating their heads against a wall, shouting “Make it stop! Make it stop!”
Nix bested UCLA 45-30 with a brilliant performance Saturday, completing 22-of-28 passes for 283 yards and five touchdowns. He ran for 51 more yards. He electrified a fan base that remains blissfully unaware of all the pain he once helped inflict in his old life.
Yes, the numbers at Auburn seemed to suggest Nix was at the root of the problem, but as Mark Twain said, there are lies, damned lies and statistics, and Nix’s numbers were the most insidious of lies.
Yes, we watched Nix struggle in his Oregon debut as the Ducks were steamrolled by Georgia, but that was an unfair sample. It was like starting fresh at a new high school with a chance to finally fit in with the cool kids, only to bump into an old classmate at the mall. Georgia knew Auburn Bo Nix too well.
But look past all that. Look at what Nix has become now that he’s clear of Auburn, past Gus Malzahn and Bryan Harsin and … boy, it feels like there were six or seven other coaches in there, too. Oh, sure, Nix was an Auburn legacy and a five-star recruit, but The Plains has eaten up better men than that. But after years of tumult, Nix finally realized that this relationship was toxic, that he had to move on. Nothing in Taylor Swift’s discography captures the emotion of this breakup.
And when Nix left, he got as far away as he could go. And at long last, he was free.
Nix has Oregon at 6-1 and undefeated in Pac-12 play. Despite that brutal opener against Georgia, the Ducks have miraculously forced their way back into playoff conversation. Nix’s performance Saturday helped the Oregon fan base fully exorcise one of its demons, forcing Chip Kelly to return, defeated, to the sad suburban condo with the empty pool that we all assume he lives at.
What happened at Auburn was inevitable. Nix just happened to be playing QB at the time, like the activities director on the Titanic. So, consider this Nix’s “Good Will Hunting” moment. It’s not your fault. It’s not your fault. It’s not your fault.
Eight is enough
Over the summer, Mario Cristobal wanted to assure the public that Miami was serious about winning and didn’t need any gimmicks to get the job done. So, Cristobal said, no more turnover chain.
Big mistake.
The turnover chain was not a gimmick. It was a sacred relic, and its destruction has signaled the end times in Coral Gables.
Duke annihilated Miami 45-21 on Saturday, as the Hurricanes coughed up the football eight times.
Eight. Times.
Now, it’d be easy enough to chalk up all the turnovers to the simple fact that Miami is a very bad football team. But that would be like suggesting there are so many “Fast and Furious” movies because Vin Diesel is America’s greatest living thespian. Both things are true, but those facts alone cannot explain such prolific output.
No, for Miami there can be but one obvious culprit: Cristobal angered the football gods, and he must now go on a mythic quest, through corridors haunted by the ghosts of Al Golden and Randy Shannon, scale the unconquerable mountains of the ACC Coastal Division and survive an epic freestyle battle with Uncle Luke to retrieve the turnover chain and return it to its rightful place on Miami’s sideline.
Quinn Ewers has had some rough moments this season. His car was towed. He hurt his shoulder. He had to watch Oklahoma play for an entire game. But Saturday was his rock bottom.
Ewers completed just 19 of 49 throws and tossed three interceptions in Texas’ 41-34 loss at Oklahoma State.
The Pokes were playing with a battered offensive line, but Spencer Sanders still delivered some critical throws, tossing two touchdowns, while Jaden Nixon showed he could’ve run over Texas’ defense wearing bedroom slippers.
It was a huge bounce-back win for Oklahoma State after blowing a late lead against TCU last week. The Cowboys are 6-1, and Sanders has firmly established himself as either the best bad QB or worst good QB in the country.
After the Longhorns lost twice without Ewers earlier this season, Saturday’s defeat can at least remove any linger “What if” debates and allow Texas to completely turn its attention to keeping trick-or-treaters safe from monkey attacks this week.
Iowa finally benched Spencer Petras on Saturday, after he managed just eight completions — six to his team, and two to Ohio State. But honestly, benching isn’t enough salvation for Petras. It’s time Quarterback Protective Services steps in and removes him from his home. He deserves to run free on a farm upstate.
Even after Petras was benched, things didn’t get better for the Hawkeyes. Alex Padilla completed just five of 10 passes for 32 yards and an interception, essentially assuring Iowa’s QB depth chart is just the two Spider-Mans pointing at each other meme.
How bad was it?
Iowa was 1-of-13 on third-down tries.
Iowa had six turnovers. (Miami can expect a thank-you card from coordinator Brian Ferentz this week.)
Iowa averaged 2.2 yards per run and yet the QBs were so bad the Hawkeyes still chose to run it 35 times.
There’s only one logical solution to Iowa’s offensive woes at this point. It’s time for Kirk Ferentz to fire his son and hire Jeff Bowden.
Under-the-radar play of the week
If you missed the ending to Stanford vs. Arizona State, we understand. Watching that game was punishment for shoplifting in several states. And perhaps fittingly, the final moments were every bit as unfortunate as a matchup between two bad teams would suggest.
Trailing 15-14, Arizona State chucked a Hail Mary throw down the sideline on fourth-and-19, which appeared to be hauled in by Elijhah Badger to set up a game-winning field goal with just seconds remaining.
play
0:52
Arizona State falls to Stanford in the final seconds as Emory Jones has one foot out on the 4th-and-19 catch that would have set up a game-winning field goal.
Upon replay review, however, the call was overturned, with officials saying Badger had a toe out of bounds on the catch, allowing Stanford to snap a 10-game conference losing streak.
Under-the-radar game of the week
Rhode Island and Monmouth put on a marathon Saturday, playing seven overtimes before the Rams emerged with a 48-46 win. Not since the famed Texas A&M-LSU epic has a college football game between two teams no one cared about gone on so very, very long.
The game featured seven ties and four lead changes. Monmouth QB Tony Muskett — who also may have been a character on “Bonanza” — threw for three touchdowns. Rhode Island QB Kasim Hill threw for 352 yards and three touchdowns, including a 73-yarder to Marques DeShields with 3:23 remaining to tie the game at 35, but he also tossed three picks.
In the first OT, both teams traded touchdowns. Both went scoreless in the second frame. Then it went to 2-point tries, and the Rams and Hawks stayed even through four more frames. In the seventh OT, Rhode Island broke up a pass in the end zone, and Hill completed his throw to Ed Lee to secure the win.
Sadly, Jimbo Fisher’s nephew was not able to attend, so this seven-OT game did not end with fisticuffs, and frankly, we cannot truly embrace seven overtimes unless someone wearing khakis starts taking swings at complete strangers.
We hate to be the ones to bring this up, but it needs to be said: Liberty is 7-1.
We know, we know: When quarterback Malik Willis left, we all hoped we could safely stop paying attention to the Flames. But somehow, they’ve kept winning, including a 41-14 stomping of BYU on Saturday behind 213 rushing yards from Dae Dae Hunter.
Liberty’s lone loss came on a missed 2-point try against 6-1 Wake Forest.
Liberty has won with three different starting QBs.
Liberty is — deep breaths — good.
Is it possible Hugh Freeze is fueled by the country’s anger at him, like the emperor in “Star Wars?” (We also assume that if Twitter existed in a galaxy far, far away, Palpatine would slide into Obi-Wan’s DMs to complain about rebel criticisms too.) There’s simply no keeping the guy down (even when he is literally kept down).
So, do we need to take Liberty seriously? The only acceptable answer is yes. To embrace Freeze is to take away his power. Or, if not that, maybe Iowa should hire him.
Heisman Five
Even in a week in which three of the nine remaining undefeated teams lost, there wasn’t much room for shake-ups at the top of the Heisman hopeful list.
Tee Martin won a national championship at Tennessee. UT Martin, on the other hand, struggled badly at Tennessee on Saturday. The Skyhawks had no answers for Hooker, who averaged more than 11 yards per throw and tossed three more touchdowns.
Exposure to the Hawkeyes’ offense took its toll on Stroud, who struggled through the first half, but thankfully Ryan Day was able to perform a full Iowa exorcism (it involves spewing creamed corn instead of pea soup) and Stroud rebounded with four second-half TD throws.
Young did all he could to pull Alabama over the finish line last week against Tennessee, but we were still worried he might catch some strays from Saban during practice this week. Thankfully, he survived, and he returned with another strong day, throwing for 249 yards and two touchdowns in the Tide’s 30-0 win over Mississippi State.
Wake is 6-1 after drubbing Boston College, and in the lone loss, Hartman had six touchdown passes. He nearly matched that total Saturday, throwing for five touchdowns and running for a sixth in the win. Hartman now has the third-most passing TDs in ACC history (93), trailing only Tajh Boyd and Philip Rivers, all despite also working part time as a 1920s mafia hit man.
No. 2 Sam Hartman, Wake
Really good balance between clean lines and fullness of the beard. Worked better before he cut his hair though. He looks like a shampoo commercial model now rather than last year’s Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer. Borderline elite, 4.5 stars pic.twitter.com/sRh8c0Urfy
The most college football thing to happen Saturday
We talk often about the plague of #CollegeKickers, with flubbed chip shots invariably costing teams a needed win on an almost weekly basis. Long-snappers, on the other hand, tend to fly below the radar.
Unfortunately for Weber State‘s Grant Sands, his Saturday will be remembered for a long time.
Sands snapped the football over the punter’s head and out of the back of the end zone for a safety four times against Montana State on Saturday, handing the Bobcats eight points in a game that Montana State ultimately won 43-38.
play
0:41
Weber State is on the wrong end of the record books as it surrenders four safeties on errant special teams snaps.
Big bets and bad beats
Miami has been favored to win four times this season. The Hurricanes are now 1-3 in those games after a miserable eight-turnover loss to Duke on Saturday. Miami has now lost as a 25.5-point favorite to Middle Tennessee, a 10-point favorite to Duke and a four-point favorite to North Carolina. The Hurricanes’ lone win as a favorite came against Virginia Tech, after they failed to cover a nine-point spread in a 20-14 victory.
Clemson trailed Syracuse 21-10 at the half on Saturday, which was just about the perfect spot for the Tigers — or at least for sharp bettors. The Tigers were -9.5 in the second half, and they covered that number easily, outscoring the Orange 17-0 in the final two frames. That makes Clemson coach Dabo Swinney 11-2 against the second-half spread in his career when trailing at halftime.
We’re officially over halfway through college football’s regular season, so what better time to check on the Heisman Trophy race than now?
After several high-profile games this past week, our Heisman watch has been turned upside down with three new faces on the list since our last check in — congrats on making the cut once again C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young.
This week, you’ll see our Heisman standings, top Heisman moments of the week, what to watch for in Week 8, plus a Q&A with Michigan RB Blake Corum.
Voting methodology: 13 voters ranked their top five candidates, with five points for a first-place vote down to one point for a fifth-place vote.
Notable: Hooker has been the breakout star of the college football season so far and his best came last Saturday against Alabama. He finished 21 of 30 for 385 yards and five touchdowns as the Volunteers beat the Crimson Tide for the first since 2006.
Notable: Stroud has been the picture of consistency this season as the No. 2 Buckeyes are off to a 6-0 start. Stroud has thrown for over 350 yards three times this season, including his last time out when he threw for 361 yards and six touchdowns against Michigan State. He’s thrown for 4+ touchdowns in four games this season.
Notable: The Crimson Tide may have taken a loss at Tennessee but Young’s return was still something to behold. He threw for 455 yards and two touchdowns while keeping Alabama in the game as Hooker was lighting up the scoreboard. Young is looking to be the second player in history to win back-to-back Heisman trophies.
Notable: The Bruins are off to the program’s best start under Chip Kelly and the success starts with the quarterback. Thompson-Robinson put UCLA on the map on Sept. 30 when he threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns in a 40-32 win over a ranked Washington team. If Thompson-Robinson wants to thoroughly place himself in the Heisman conversation, a big performance in Eugene this week against Oregon will do it.
Notable: Much like Young, one of Williams’ best performances of the season came in loss. The Trojans fell late to Utah this past week but Williams threw for 381 yards and five touchdowns in the 43-42 defeat. He also ran for 57 yards against the Utes.
Heisman odds: +800
Others receiving votes (total points in parentheses): Blake Corum, RB, Michigan (8); Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina (3)
Q&A with Blake Corum
After Michigan’s 41-17 win over Penn State in Ann Arbor, ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg and Chris Grandstaff talked with Corum about his season and the Heisman.
ESPN: Reggie Bush has attended your last few games [as a Fox analyst]. What have your interactions been like with him?
BC: I’ve become really cool friends with Reggie the last couple weeks. I talked to Reggie after every game. The respect is mutual. Reggie is one of the best running backs ever, especially when you talk about college, he killed it. He told me what he thought about my cutting ability and what type of running back I am. He said I’m one of the best. He is the best, so getting those words from him meant a lot. I talked to them after the game yesterday, and then when he was leaving, the police were escorting their cars, and I was walking out with fans, and he saw me, he rolled his window down [and said], ‘Keep being great.’ Then he told me, ‘You’re the best running back in the nation.’ That meant a lot. If I’m able to win the Heisman like Reggie, it would be a blessing.
ESPN: Did you see Charles Woodson at the Penn State game?
BC: Yeah, I’ve met Charles Woodson a couple of times. I talked to him before the game, he came up to me. Desmond Howard, I’m really cool with him. I know a bunch of guys who used to play here.
ESPN: Obviously those two guys won the biggest award you can win in the Heisman. What would it mean to be in that mix and ultimately have a chance?
BC: It would be amazing, but I’m not looking too far ahead. I’m really focused on trying to get better, how can this team get better and keep winning? When you’re winning, everyone’s looking at you. Those awards that happen at the end of the season, they’re at the end of the season for a reason. I’m not going to win the Doak Walker [Award] today, I’m not going to win the Heisman today. I have to keep producing, I have to keep eating, and that’s going to take work. Obviously, it would be a blessing to be up there on that wall next to the greats. It would be a dream come true.
ESPN: Growing up, what was your Heisman Trophy memory? What player do you remember most?
BC: I don’t have too many Heisman memories, because more times than not, it’s a quarterback winning it. But when I committed to Michigan, I went on YouTube and actually looked at the [Heisman] ceremonies of Desmond and Charles. Obviously, Johnny Manziel, that was cool with the money sign, that was a big year, that was fun, everyone was rooting for him. He was a heck of an athlete.
ESPN: How do you view your role last year as opposed to what they’re asking of you this season?
BC: I look at it as Donovan [Edwards] took my role and I took Hassan [Haskins’] role. Hassan last year, he set it up for me. He got those hard yards, and then I come in and break a 50-yarder. It’s a little different now because he wasn’t really breaking too many 50-yarders. I’m still breaking some long ones, but he was getting 20-plus carries a game, really inside zone, he wasn’t going outside too much. I feel like I’m that thunder with some lightning as well. That’s what my role is. I can take the load and then Donovan comes in and does his thing, too. I was lightning last year. Now I get to the goal line, like third-and-1, I’m in as a power back. Red zone, I’m in.
ESPN: How important has it been for you to prove you can do that and still break a 60-yarder?
BC: It’s been very important. A lot of people have doubted my durability, maybe my size, it starts with my height [5-8], but at the end of the day I’m 210 [pounds], weighed in at 212 today. So the weight isn’t a problem. But being able to get 28 to 30 carries in the last four games, I feel has shown a lot to whoever may have been doubting that.
ESPN: Who have you tried to model your game after?
BC: I love Barry Sanders. He was a little before my time, so I didn’t really get to watch him on TV, but I love watching him on YouTube, just how elusive he was and how he was able to get out of cuts and get out of tackles, break tackles, not get touched. I admire his style. Then, when it comes to power, because I like inside zone, I like running up the middle, I’m not afraid of contact, so I like Marshawn Lynch. He likes getting hit, he likes hitting people. He has that thing where he says, ‘Hit ’em over and over and over again.’ I like that mentality.
ESPN: You mentioned earlier that the Heisman is often a quarterback’s award. What would it mean to win it as a running back?
BC: It would mean a lot because it is kind of like a quarterback award. Obviously, [Michigan defensive end] Aidan [Hutchinson] went last year, didn’t get a chance to win it. If I’m able to go [to New York] and win it, I don’t know what I would do, honestly. I just know it would mean the world to me. I would definitely have come back and give my offensive linemen and big ol’ present. If I’m able to win it, I don’t know what the emotions would be like. It would mean a lot, especially another No. 2 at the University of Michigan winning it. They may have to retire the jersey after that. I thought they would have already retired it after Charles, just because of the legend he is, but if someone else wins it wearing No. 2, oh man, it would be a blessing.
play
0:27
Blake Corum gets down to the 1-yard line with a 50-yard run. On the next play he finished the drive off with a short touchdown run.
Top Heisman moments this past week
1. Let’s be honest, Hooker’s entire performance against Alabama is why he’s No. 1 on the list this week. But here’s one of his many dimes from the 52-49 win.
No. 9 UCLA at No. 10 Oregon (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
As previously mentioned, if Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a true Heisman candidate, this will be the game to show it — until the USC matchup, of course. ESPN’s College GameDay is heading to Eugene for the game and, with both teams in the top 10, UCLA coach Chip Kelly’s return to Oregon should be one of the Pac-12’s most electric games of the season. Oh, and Oregon quarterback Bo Nix isn’t too shabby, either.
Six weeks into the 2022 NFL season, the league’s Most Valuable Player race is starting to come together, highlighted by a host of quarterbacks emerging as candidates. The leader of the AFC’s only one-loss team owns the best Vegas odds and the most first-place votes from our panel, while the QB of the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team has skyrocketed through the first third of the season. Those jockeying for the frontrunner spot have 12 more weeks to make their case.
We asked a group of analysts — Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Courtney Cronin, Jeremy Fowler, Dan Graziano, Matt Miller, Sal Paolantonio, Jason Reid, Mike Tannenbaum, Seth Walder and Field Yates — to vote on the top players in the MVP race right now. Then we used those 12 sets of rankings to give our top five candidates, using Heisman Trophy-esque scaling for each ranking to determine how the field stacks up.
We’ll also look at a few names who have seen their MVP stock either spike or plummet in the early going, and ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder also weighed in on an under-the-radar MVP-caliber player. Here’s a look at where things stand after six weeks.
Early season returns reveal an undisputed truth: Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL, an honor he began wrestling away from top AFC rival Patrick Mahomes in last year’s playoffs. Allen entered the season with the best odds to win the MVP and strengthened his case against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6 by outdueling Mahomes in a 24-20 thriller, which he capped off by leading a 76-yard, come-from-behind scoring drive with a little more than a minute remaining.
That was the second game-winning drive he’s led the Bills on this month (the other was in a 23-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens) and his first fourth-quarter comeback since Sept. 27, 2020. Allen is the first starting quarterback to beat Mahomes twice at Arrowhead Stadium. He leads the league in passing (both in yards and yards per game) and his 753 passing yards over the last two games are the most in a two-game span in Bills franchise history.
Hurts’ ascension — where he’s seen vast improvement in areas such as completion percentage (66.8%, ranked ninth), passer rating (98.4, fifth), average release time (2.76) and yards per attempt (8.2, second) — has Philadelphia off to its first 6-0 start since 2004. The 24-year-old QB has won nine games in a row dating to 2021, tied for the longest win streak by an Eagles starting quarterback in 22 years, and he is the fifth player in league history to pass for 1,500 yards and rush for 250 through his team’s first six games.
The Eagles boast the most offensive balance of any team in the NFC (394.5 yards per game, ranked third; 26.8 points per game, fourth) with a steady run game and explosive passing attack. Hurts has played a big role in what the Eagles are doing on the ground, with 11 more carries on designed runs (38) than any other quarterback and 16 of those coming in the red zone, according to Next Gen Stats. He’s also completing a career-high plus-2.7% of his passes over expectation, the third highest in the NFL.
A lot was made about how the Chiefs offense would function without wide receiver Tyreek Hill. His absence has forced Mahomes to spread the ball around and become a more efficient, patient passer. Through six games, Mahomes and Allen are tied for first with 17 touchdown passes. Mahomes continues to be incredibly effective when under pressure, ranking first in touchdowns per pass attempt and third in first downs per pass attempt, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
But the pressure he faced late in Week 6 determined the outcome for the Chiefs. Against the Bills, Mahomes accounted for 92% of Kansas City’s offense when he threw for 338 yards, two touchdown passes, two interceptions and completed 63% of his passes. While Allen led Buffalo on a touchdown drive to take the lead late, Mahomes responded by throwing an interception while under duress, his third pick on a game-winning drive attempt dating to last year’s AFC Championship game.
Jackson’s MVP candidacy is on hold — for now — after a hot start. He ranks third in touchdown passes and leads all players in yards per rush (8.1) and yards before contact per rush (6.3), becoming the first player to be top 5 in both categories through the first six weeks of the season since the NFL-AFL merger, according to Elias.
Jackson is at his strongest early in games, with 12 of his 13 touchdown passes coming in the first three quarters. On the flip side, four of his six interceptions have occurred in the fourth quarter. His QBR in the first three quarters is better than fellow MVP candidate Hurts, but his QBR in the fourth quarter is worse than Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields.
play
2:06
Marcus Spears discusses Lamar Jackson’s fourth-quarter struggles and how he can fix them.
A quarterback or running back has won the MVP every year since 1987, but Parsons deserves consideration after a strong start to the season, as he is tied for first in total pressures (31) and second in sacks. Aside from a 26-17 loss to the Eagles where Parsons was largely contained, Dallas has won games this season due to a dominant defense. The Cowboys went 4-1 during a stretch where quarterback Dak Prescott was injured thanks in large part to the defense, which leads the league in sacks (24) and is third in points allowed (98).
Herbert set a record for the most passes thrown (57) without a touchdown in the Chargers’ 19-16 OT win over the Denver Broncos on Monday, according to Elias. He’s still in the MVP conversation thanks to where he ranks in passing yards (fourth), touchdowns (sixth), interception percentage (fifth), passing first downs (eighth) and QBR (eighth), but he’ll have to go on a run over the next 11 games to be in contention with the frontrunners.
For the first time in the Super Bowl era, the Giants have posted four upset wins in their first six games of a season in large part due to the identity they’ve established with Barkley, who looks like the best running back in the league. He leads the NFL with 771 yards from scrimmage and his four touchdowns this season are two more than he had in the combined 15 games he played in 2020-21. At minimum, he’s a front runner for the NFL’s comeback player of the year award.
Cousins broke the Vikings’ franchise record for consecutive completions when he started 17-of-17 in a Week 5 win over the Bears and followed that up by throwing for two touchdown passes in a win over the Miami Dolphins. Coming off his third Pro Bowl season, the 34-year-old has yet to throw for 300 yards in a game but his efficient play has the Vikings off to a 5-1 start.
Smith leads the NFL in completion percentage over expectation (plus-9.6%), according to Next Gen Stats, and leads the NFL in completion percentage (73.4%) through six weeks. He’s thrown for 1,502 yards and nine touchdown passes, which ranks ninth and eighth, respectively, among qualified starting quarterbacks. The Seahawks would be nowhere close to a .500 record without Smith, which is why the franchise should consider him as an option at QB beyond this season.
Burrow bounced back after the Bengals got off to an 0-2 start, and he has completed more than 62% of his passes in each of his first six games. In a come-from-behind win over the New Orleans Saints, the Bengals’ QB completed 28 of 37 passes for 300 yards and three touchdown passes and didn’t turn the ball over. With Atlanta, Cleveland and Carolina coming up, Burrow could work his way into the MVP mix.
Rodgers is struggling to compensate for a diminished supporting cast. He had a total QBR of 17.0 in a loss to the New York Jets, which was his second worst of the season (10.8 vs. Minnesota Week 1). Last year’s MVP has six turnovers through six games after turning the ball over four times all of last season. He’s lost three fumbles this season after losing two in the previous two seasons combined.
play
1:42
Field Yates breaks down Aaron Rodgers’ dismal fantasy season.
Bradberry is worthy of a top-10 MVP vote, in my view. His nearest defender numbers from NFL Next Gen Stats are outrageous. Among outside corners with 125 coverage snaps Bradberry ranks:
Second in yards per coverage snap (0.5)
First in targeted EPA by a wide margin (minus-25.8)
Second in completion percentage over expectation (minus-20%)
First in receptions allowed over expectation (minus-8.0)
To put the second number in context, the Bengals have recorded plus-28.7 EPA on Joe Burrow dropbacks this season (I’m mixing between NGS and ESPN EPA models here — not ideal, but you get the point). To record a level of production as a corner that’s in the same ballpark as a higher-end QB is incredibly valuable. Yes, a bunch of that was generated on a deflection that he turned into a pick-six off Jared Goff but it was hardly a one-off: Bradberry has been superb the whole year.
At a glance, Week 7 appears to be one of mismatches, as nine of the 14 games (64.3%) posted an opening line north of five points. That’s a big number, but with how bad the bottom rung of NFL teams is, your gut reaction may be to back the favorites.
Be careful. Very careful.
It’s been no secret that underdogs have been profitable on the whole this season, but with a week like the one we have coming, it’s important to add context. The cover (and outright win) rates for underdogs of five or fewer points this season essentially matchup with the rates from 2016-21, but once you cross that 5-point spread, the dogs are barkin’. This season, when that is the case, underdogs are covering at a 63.2% clip, winning outright 35.5% of the time.
How does that stack up with the past? From 2016-21, underdogs covered 49.4% of the time and pulled off the outright upset just 20.9% of the time. Sure, six weeks does not a season make, but what we’ve seen up to this point is overwhelming … do you think it continues? Let me know, and here are the league wide trends and a note to consider for every team as we head into Week 7:
Thursday, 8:15 p.m.
Saints ATS: 2-4 O/U: 4-2 What we know about the Saints: Over the past three weeks, New Orleans games have seen 50 more points scored than projected (first three weeks: nine fewer points).
Cardinals ATS: 3-3 O/U: 1-4-1 What we know about the Cardinals: The over hit in Week 1 but hasn’t cashed since in Arizona games. IN fact, over the past two weeks, Cardinals games have gone under the projection by 34 points.
play
0:39
Joe Fortenbaugh breaks down why he’s taking the under in Saints vs. Cardinals.
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Falcons ATS: 6-0 O/U: 3-3 What we know about the Falcons: The Falcons are just the third team since 2010 to open the season 6-0 ATS (2021 Cowboys and 2018 Chiefs).
Bengals ATS: 4-2 O/U: 1-5 What we know about the Bengals: A Bengals game went over for the first time last week and they improved to 14-4 ATS in their past 18 games that went over the number.
Browns ATS: 2-4 O/U: 5-1 What we know about the Browns: When it goes sideways for Cleveland it really goes sideways. Last week’s 38-15 loss to New England (as a 2.5-point favorite) was the fifth time since the beginning of last season that the Browns cover margin was -25 or worse.
Ravens ATS: 2-3-1 O/U: 2-4 What we know about the Ravens: The Ravens have failed to cover three straight games and all three of those contests have gone under the total.
Colts ATS: 3-3 O/U: 1-5 What we know about the Colts: Not one, not two …but six. Six straight Colts road games have gone under the total (four of those games going under the projected total by at least 10 points).
Titans ATS: 3-2 O/U: 2-3 What we know about the Titans: The Titans covered four straight against the division rival Colts, winning three of those games outright as an underdog.
Lions ATS: 3-2 O/U: 4-1 What we know about the Lions: The Lions return from their bye and are looking to avoid their first three game ATS losing streak since Weeks 14-16 of the 2019 season.
Cowboys ATS: 4-2 O/U: 2-4 What we know about the Cowboys: How ’bout them unders? Four straight Dallas home games have gone under the projected total by at least five points.
Packers ATS: 2-4 O/U: 2-4 What we know about the Packers: The Packers are 8-13 ATS over their past 21 games when favored by at least seven points (28-11 ATS in all other instances during the regular season over that stretch).
Commanders ATS: 2-4 O/U: 2-4 What we know about the Commanders: That’s now four straight unders in Washington games, with the average total over that stretch coming in 11.6 points under the projection.
Giants ATS: 5-1 O/U: 2-4 What we know about the Giants: The Giants are the first team to go 4-0 outright as an underdog in a team’s first six games of a season since the 2012 Seahawks did so.
Jaguars ATS: 2-4 O/U: 4-2 What we know about the Jaguars: Each of Jacksonville’s past 14 games have seen the covering team also win outright.
Buccaneers ATS: 2-4 O/U: 1-5 What we know about the Buccaneers: The Bucs have dropped four straight ATS. In their previous 12 games (playoffs included), they were 9-3 ATS.
Panthers ATS: 1-5 O/U: 2-4 What we know about the Panthers: The Panthers may only be 1-5 ATS this season, but three of those losses, including last week at the Rams, have seen them fail to cover by less than five points. A consistent fade that often requires some sweat to get there.
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Texans ATS: 3-1-1 O/U: 2-3 What we know about the Texans: Under tickets have cashed in eight of Houston’s past 10 road games (last road game was a 13-6 win in Jacksonville with a 43.5-point over/under).
Raiders ATS: 2-3 O/U: 3-1-1 What we know about the Raiders: The Raiders are coming off of their bye looking for a fourth straight over (overs came through in just three of 10 games prior to this recent run).
Jets ATS: 4-2 O/U: 3-3 What we know about the Jets: The most impressive two game run in recent memory? The Jets have covered their past two games by a total of 50.5 points, outscoring opponents 67-27 in the process.
Broncos ATS: 2-4 O/U: 1-5 What we know about the Broncos: Denver is 2-8-1 ATS in the past 11 games it has played on short rest, something that will be the case this weekend after it wrapped up Week 6 in Los Angeles on Monday night.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Chiefs ATS: 2-4 O/U: 3-3 What we know about the Chiefs: The Chiefs have covered seven of their past 10 regular season games when the over/under is less than 50 points.
49ers ATS: 3-3 O/U: 1-5 What we know about the 49ers: Five of six 49er games this season have had a cover margin of at least 11.5 points.
Seahawks ATS: 3-3 O/U: 3-3 What we know about the Seahawks: Seattle has both scored and allowed at least 30 points in three of its past four road games.
Chargers ATS: 4-2 O/U: 3-3 What we know about the Chargers: The Bolts have covered three of four games in the Justin Herbert era when playing on short rest (overs are also 3-1).
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Steelers ATS: 2-3-1 O/U: 2-4 What we know about the Steelers: The Steelers are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games, with three of those losses seeing them fail to cover by at least 16 points.
Dolphins ATS: 3-3 O/U: 2-4 What we know about the Dolphins: That’s three straight unders in Miami games and the team total bettors have been having a field day as Miami has been held to 21 or fewer points in five of six weeks. It must be a city thing, as the Marlins had a historic scoring drought during the baseball regular season.
Monday, 8:15 p.m.
Bears ATS: 2-3-1 O/U: 2-4 What we know about the Bears: The Bears get the closest thing to a second bye: first game in Week 6 and the last one in Week 7. But is that good? Da Bears are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games on extended rest.
Patriots ATS: 3-2-1 O/U: 3-3 What we know about the Patriots: The Pats are just 2-7 ATS in the post-Tom Brady era when playing on extended rest.
The Week 6 NFL schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 6 slate, including another edition of Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen, an NFC East showdown between Philadelphia and Dallas and a rushing battle between the Giants and Ravens. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Broncos and the Chargers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
What to watch for: The Ravens get to face former defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, who went to the Giants after 10 years with the organization this offseason. “It was nothing negative, it was just time,” he said this week of the breakup. Martindale knows Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson‘s game, and Jackson knows Martindale’s defense, having gone against it every day at practice the previous four seasons. Both are having success this season — Jackson is eighth in the NFL with a QBR of 63.6, while Martindale’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 23 points in a game. — Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction:J.K. Dobbins will produce more rushing yards than Saquon Barkley. Dobbins is coming off his most explosive game, averaging a season-best 3.25 yards after contact. The Giants have struggled against the run, giving up an average of 2.36 yards after contact (fourth-worst in the league). It could be a challenging day for Barkley against Baltimore, which has allowed just one running back to rush for more than 80 yards in a game since the start of 2021 (Dalvin Cook in Week 9 last season). — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Jackson has a 12-0 record as a starting QB against NFC teams in his career, per Elias Sports Bureau. That’s the second-longest inter-conference win streak to start a career since the 1970 merger.
What to know for fantasy: Barkley has more than 15 receiving yards in every game this season, not a bad trend for a player who also has at least 13 points as a rusher in four of five games this season. See Week 6 rankings.
Betting nugget: Jackson is 17-7-2 ATS on the road in his career. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Ravens 24, Giants 21 Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Giants 16 FPI prediction: BAL, 64.8% (by an average of 4.5 points)
What to watch for: The Saints are short on receivers. Seriously short. Kick returner Deonte Harty has a significant toe injury, Michael Thomas hasn’t practiced in weeks, Jarvis Landry‘s status will likely be up in the air and Chris Olave is still going through the concussion protocol. That means things might fall on the shoulders of Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill for the second straight week. If Hill comes anywhere close to repeating last week’s four-touchdown performance, the Saints just might be OK. — Katherine Terrell
Bold prediction: Kamara goes for 125 total scrimmage yards. Baltimore had success attacking Cincinnati horizontally and picking up decent gains. With New Orleans having several offensive question marks, Kamara could be the most reliable asset for the Saints. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: The Saints are seeking their first home win against the Bengals since Jan. 2, 1994.
Doug Kezirian explains why he is taking the over in the Bengals vs. Saints matchup.
What to know for fantasy:Ja’Marr Chase has failed to score even 13 fantasy points in four straight games. He had a run of five straight games with fewer than 14 fantasy points in the middle of last season (Weeks 8-13). You take the bad with the extreme good. See Week 6 rankings.
Betting nugget: Cincinnati has gone under the total in 10 straight games including playoffs, one shy of the longest streak in the last 35 seasons. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bengals 28, Saints 21 Walder’s pick: Bengals 33, Saints 19 FPI prediction: CIN, 63.1% (by an average of 3.9 points)
What to watch for: Just fast forward to the second half of this game, because that’s where it will be decided. The Packers have scored seven or fewer points in the second half in four of their five games. The Jets have scored 61 points combined in the second half this season, third most in the AFC behind only Buffalo and Kansas City. — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: In the battle of the two-headed backfields, the Jets’ young guns (Breece Hall and Michael Carter) will outrush the Packers’ more heralded tandem (Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon). Jones-Dillon is averaging 127 yards per game, compared to 87 for Hall-Carter, but the Jets’ two runners are coming off a big game against the Dolphins. The Jets are also starting to create a run-first identity on offense. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: Should the Packers lose, they’ll be 3-3 after six games for the first time since 2012. A Jets win in that situation would mark their first 4-2 start since 2015.
Betting nugget: Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 10-0 outright and ATS following a loss. Overall, Green Bay has won and covered 12 straight games following a loss, the longest streak by any team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Packers 27, Jets 23 Walder’s pick: Packers 21, Jets 13 FPI prediction: GB, 82.6% (by an average of 11.1 points)
What to watch for:Skylar Thompson will become the 10th rookie to make his first career start for the Dolphins since 1966. He can also become just the third rookie to win their first start, joining David Woodley and Tua Tagovailoa. They haven’t fared well as a group, however, throwing for six touchdowns against 11 interceptions; only Dan Marino and Ryan Tannehill eclipsed the 200 passing yard-mark. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Bold prediction:Dalvin Cook will have his best game of the season, rushing for at least 100 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins’ run defense has actually been pretty good this season, ranking No. 7 in the NFL based on expected points added. But it has allowed seven rushing touchdowns, tied for sixth-most in the league, and Cook — a Miami native — has averaged more than 100 yards per game dating back to college when he played Florida-based teams in Florida. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know:Kirk Cousins has 75 passing first downs this season, the third-most in the NFL behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen (78). He is facing a Dolphins defense that allows 8.29 passing yards per attempt, the third-worst in the NFL.
Eric Moody gives his thoughts on how fantasy managers should approach the Dolphins’ skill positions with Skylar Thompson at QB.
What to know for fantasy: We are five weeks into the season and 47.7% of Jaylen Waddle‘s 2022 production has come in a single game (Week 2 at BAL: 40.1 fantasy points). See Week 6 rankings.
Betting nugget: Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games (0-2 ATS this season). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Vikings 21, Dolphins 20 Walder’s pick: Dolphins 23, Vikings 17 FPI prediction: MIN, 65.3% (by an average of 4.6 points)
What to watch for: The Falcons have rushed for more than 150 yards in every game but one this season no matter who the running back is. Cordarrelle Patterson, before the knee injury that landed him on injured reserve, was third in the NFL in rushing. In his place, the Falcons have used a combination of Tyler Allgeier, Caleb Huntley and Avery Williams — all with two years or less of experience in the league. — Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: The 49ers will have more rushing yards than the Falcons. Something has to give in a matchup featuring Atlanta’s third-ranked rushing offense against the Niners’ top-ranked rushing defense. San Francisco could be without some key defenders, which means Atlanta will have its chances to gain yards on the ground, but the Niners also boast a strong ground game of their ownand the Falcons have been middle of the road in stopping the run. Give the slight edge to the 49ers in an area that will go a long way in determining a winner. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The 49ers have allowed the third-fewest passing yards in the league while the Falcons have thrown for the third-fewest passing yards in the NFL (834).
What to know for fantasy:Jeff Wilson Jr. has gone over 70 rushing yards in four straight games (season best 20.2 fantasy points last week in Carolina) and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry in the process. See Week 6 rankings.
Betting nugget: Atlanta remains the only team undefeated ATS following its backdoor cover last week against Tampa Bay. Only two teams in the last decade have started 6-0 or better ATS (2021 Dallas, 2018 Kansas City). Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 27, Falcons 17 Walder’s pick: Falcons 20, 49ers 19 FPI prediction: SF, 52.0% (by an average of 0.7 points)
What to watch for: After finishing the 38-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills without their top three cornerbacks, the Steelers still figure to be short-handed in the secondary against the Buccaneers. While safeties Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) and Terrell Edmunds (concussion) will likely play, the status of the corners — Cam Sutton (hamstring), Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and Levi Wallace (concussion) — is less certain. That’s bad news against a Bucs offense that averages 281.8 passing yards per game and is getting stronger as its receiving corps gets healthier. — Brooke Pryor
Bold prediction:Tom Brady will throw for more than 350 passing yards for a third consecutive game, tying 2011 and 2013 for the longest streak in his career. The Steelers have surrendered 11 passing touchdowns so far this season — tied for third most in the NFL. They’ve also allowed five wide receivers to eclipse the 100-yard mark, including 171 yards from Gabe Davis last week. Pro Bowl wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should benefit. — Jenna Laine
play
1:52
Kimberley Martin explains why Mike Tomlin should be facing criticism for the Steelers’ poor record.
Stat to know:Leonard Fournette has back-to-back games with 50 receiving yards and a touchdown. He could become the first Bucs RB to do it in three straight games.
What to know for fantasy:Najee Harris was drafted eighth overall this summer after averaging 17.7 fantasy PPG as a rookie last season, but he has yet to hit 14 points in a single game this season. Not once! See Week 6 rankings.
Betting nugget: Pittsburgh is in its largest home underdog role since 1989 when Pittsburgh upset Minnesota as an 8.5-point home underdog. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Steelers 14 Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Steelers 10 FPI prediction: TB, 82.9% (by an average of 11.3 points)
What to watch for: Browns QB Jacoby Brissett faces off against the team that drafted him. Brissett, who started two games as a rookie for the Patriots in 2016 due to Tom Brady‘s Deflategate suspension and an injury to Jimmy Garoppolo, has never started against Bill Belichick or the Patriots before. — Jake Trotter
Bold prediction: The Browns, who lead the NFL in rushing yards per game behind Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and a solid offensive line, will be held below their average of 192.4 rushing yards. This is a tall task for a Patriots run defense that hit a rough patch from the second half of their Week 3 loss to the Ravens through their Week 4 loss to the Packers, but there were decisive signs of a bounce-back in a shutout win over the Lions in Week 5. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Browns have allowed the third-worst yards per rush (5.32). They will be facing Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who ranks eighth among qualified running backs in yards per rush (5.5).
What to know for fantasy: Four times in five weeks has a New England receiver scored over 18 fantasy points … those four performances have come by three different players (Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor and DeVante Parker). See Week 6 rankings.
Betting nugget: Bill Belichick is 8-2 outright and 7-3 ATS against Cleveland. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Patriots 20, Browns 16 Walder’s pick: Browns 24, Patriots 16 FPI prediction: CLE, 73.7% (by an average of 7.3 points)
What to watch for: The Colts have inexplicably gone 3-8 versus the Jaguars in road games since 2012. But the Colts have dominated the Jaguars at home, going 8-2 in the same span. The Jaguars’ last road win in the series came in 2017, when the Colts finished 4-12 due in large part to quarterback Andrew Luck missing the season with a shoulder injury. — Stephen Holder
Bold prediction: Jaguars WR Christian Kirk will have 10-plus catches. The Jaguars’ offense has been at its best when he’s involved, and he had just three combined catches the last two games after having 18 in the first three. Gus Bradley’s defense keeps things in front of them, and there are times when a linebacker will be matched up with Kirk — a matchup Kirk exploited in the earlier meeting. He’ll do it again. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know:Trevor Lawrence has a 2-1 record with four touchdowns and zero interceptions in his career vs. the Colts. He is 0-5 with four touchdowns and 10 interceptions vs. all other AFC South opponents.
What to know for fantasy:Travis Etienne Jr. played nine more snaps than James Robinson last week and scored a season-high 14.4 fantasy points against the Texans. He has produce at least six PPR fantasy points as a pass catcher in three of his past four games. See Week 6 rankings.
Betting nugget: Indianapolis has gone under the total in 10 straight games, one shy of the longest streak in the last 35 seasons. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 26, Jaguars 24 Walder’s pick: Jaguars 30, Colts 7 FPI prediction: JAX, 59.7% (by an average of 2.9 points)
What to watch for: The Seahawks are in the midst of their third straight miserable start on defense, struggling equally against the run and the pass. They’ll get a break with Arizona’s backfield being shorthanded, but then again, Seattle got run all over last week by Taysom Hill to the tune of 112 rushing yards and three touchdowns. — Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: With the Cardinals down to just one of their top four running backs this season — Eno Benjamin — Arizona had to restock its running back room this week with guys off the street. Kyler Murray will make sure the running attack isn’t lacking, rushing for 75 yards and two touchdowns in Seattle, including breaking a long one that’ll silence the hyped-up crowd. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: The Cardinals have been outscored 38-0 in the first quarter this season, the only team without points in the first quarter this season. The Seahawks have scored the second-most first-quarter points this season (41).
What to know for fantasy: For his career, Murray is averaging 36.8 rush yards and completing 69.3% of his passes against the Seahawks (more than 16 fantasy points in four of those five games). See Week 6 rankings.
Betting nugget: Arizona is 10-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season (2-1 ATS as road favorite). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 27 Walder’s pick: Seahawks 33, Cardinals 27 FPI prediction: ARI, 63.8% (by an average of 4.2 points)
What to watch for: The Panthers and Rams have the second- and third-worst offensive EPAs in the NFL this season, respectively, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Matthew Stafford‘s seven interceptions and 21 sacks are both tied for the most in the NFL this season, and Los Angeles has scored just one touchdown in its last nine quarters. The Panthers’ defense ranks just 22nd in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA and has three interceptions this season. — Sarah Barshop
Bold prediction: The Panthers, with only eight sacks on the season, will sack Stafford six times to keep this one closer than most expect. Stafford has been sacked 12 times the past two games, the Rams are tied for last in the NFL in sacks allowed with 21 and interim Carolina coach Steve Wilks is known for his aggressive blitz packages as a defensive coordinator. — David Newton
Stat to know:PJ Walker has a 15.1 career Total QBR, the worst of any QB with 100-plus attempts since 2020.
What to know for fantasy:Christian McCaffrey is again pacing the position in terms of percentage of team RB touches (89.9%). Saquon Barkley has been the star of 2022 (85.2%), and Jonathan Taylor (76.9% in games he has played) was the player we all debated with McCaffrey at the top overall spot. See Week 6 rankings.
Betting nugget: Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS this season (0-3 ATS at home). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Rams 24, Panthers 10 Walder’s pick: Rams 26, Panthers 9 FPI prediction: LAR, 75.8% (by an average of 8.1 points)
What to watch for: Don’t be surprised if the game’s winner is determined by which QB runs for more yardage. Patrick Mahomes has averaged 43 rushing yards in four career games against the Bills, more than any other opponent, while Josh Allen has run for 64 per game against the Chiefs. Both have also thrown it well in this rivalry, with Mahomes having a QBR of 86.1 against the Bills and Allen, 83.5 against the Chiefs. — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Wide receiver Stefon Diggs will have his first 100-yard game against the Chiefs as a Buffalo Bill. In four games against the Chiefs since 2020, Diggs has averaged 49.8 receiving yards per game, but he’s averaging 101.6 yards per contest this season. The Chiefs defense will also have to deal with a now-healthy Gabe Davis coming off three receptions for 171 yards against the Steelers. Along with slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie and tight end Dawson Knox returning to the field, the success of other players will open up opportunities for Diggs against a defense that is 24th in the NFL in allowing 255.6 passing yards per game. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know:Travis Kelce‘s seven receiving touchdowns this season are tied for the second-most by a tight end in the team’s first five games in NFL history.
What to know for fantasy: Backwards trend for Diggs? Certainly has played out that way recently, as Diggs has failed to score 15 fantasy points in five of his past seven games with an over/under of 50-plus. See Week 6 rankings.
Betting nugget: Allen is 20-10-2 ATS on the road. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 31, Chiefs 27 Walder’s pick: Bills 34, Chiefs 31 FPI prediction: KC, 60.5% (by an average of 3.0 points)
What to watch for: Four of the Eagles starting offensive linemen are battling injuries, including left tackle Jordan Mailata, who plans to play but will be wearing a sleeve and a cuff around his right shoulder to limit arm mobility. The Cowboys’ pass rush ranks first in pressures (85) and second in sacks (20). When healthy, the Eagles’ O-line versus the Dallas defensive front is strength on strength. Keep an eye on how Philly holds up in the trenches. — Tim McManus
Bold prediction:Micah Parsons will record the first interception of his career but not get a sack. It’s about the only thing Parsons has not done in the first two seasons of his career. But Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been intercepted four times in two starts against the Cowboys, the most against any opponent. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: The Cowboys currently lead the league in pass rush win rate this season, while the Eagles rank sixth in pass block win rate.
Stephen A. Smith details why the Cowboys’ wide receivers are the key to getting a win vs. the Eagles.
What to know for fantasy:Ezekiel Elliott averaged more than 100 total yards against the Eagles last season, including his best game of the season (26.6 FP in Week 3). See Week 6 rankings.
Betting nugget:Cooper Rush is the sixth quarterback in the Super Bowl era to begin his career 5-0 outright and ATS Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 24, Cowboys 17 Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20 FPI prediction: PHI, 75.2% (by an average of 8.0 points)
What to watch for: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson has been battling a partially torn lat near his right shoulder, but Broncos coach Nathaniel Hacket said that no limitations will be placed on Wilson against the Chargers. He’s a competitor, he’s doing great. This extra little mini-bye that we’ve had has been fantastic for him and really our whole team,” Hackett said of the 10-day span between their Week 5 Thursday night game and Monday night’s Week 6 matchup. The Chargers are on a two-game win streak despite playing without top pass-catcher Keenan Allen, who has been sidelined four games because of a nagging hamstring injury. — Lindsey Thiry
Bold prediction: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been one of the most difficult starters to sack in the season’s first five weeks — he’s been sacked one or zero times in four of the Chargers’ five games this season — but the Broncos will get him three times. The Broncos defense, which has been one of the bright spots in the clunky 2-3 start, is tied for fourth in the league in sacks, and Herbert will put the ball in the air enough to give the Broncos a chance to test their rush. Herbert has only had nine games in his career when he’s been sacked at least three times, and the Chargers are 3-6 in those games. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Herbert has 972 career completions and could reach completion number 1,000 against the Broncos, his 38th career start. That would make him the fastest, by QB starts, to 1,000 completions since at least 1950. Matthew Stafford currently holds that distinction at 41 starts.
What to know for fantasy: Remember all that complaining within the industry about Austin Ekeler‘s slow start? Well, through five games, he is just 5.6 points behind of where he was at during his 2021 breakout. In fact, he actually has two more touches through five games this year than last. See Week 6 rankings.
Betting nugget: Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS this season, while Denver is 1-4 ATS Read more.
Moody’s pick: Broncos 23, Chargers 16 Walder’s pick: Chargers 24, Broncos 12 FPI prediction: LAC, 74.1% (by an average of 7.5 points)
The 2022-23 season is quickly approaching and our betting experts have got you covered. Over the next two weeks we are taking a look at how to approach some of the top teams in league and giving out some futures best bets before the season tips off.
Erin Dolan breaks down best case, worst case and betting analysis for the Philadelphia 76ers.
Best Case: The 76ers finished fourth in the East last season, so are we sleeping on them as a serious contender? Philly is one of the deepest teams on paper. Joel Embiid and James Harden outscored opponents by 15.5 points per 100 possessions in the 21 games they were on the court together, which is promising heading into the season. Harden even took a pay cut to allow the team to sign PJ Tucker, De’Anthony Melton, Montrezl Harrell, and Danuel House Jr. Tyrese Maxey had a breakout sophomore season, ranking third in 3-point percentage and averaging 17.5 PPG. Overall, this team is deeper than the previous seasons and the best-case scenario is that the Philly veterans stay healthy, and a deeper roster can get them past the second round of the playoffs.
The NBA season is almost here. Sign up for ESPN Fantasy Basketball today. Play for free
Worst Case: The 76ers look good during the regular season and get knocked out of the postseason early. Philly has exceeded the league average in offensive and defensive efficiency over the past five seasons, yet failed to make the Conference Finals once in that stretch. Last season, the 76ers were outplayed by Miami and knocked out in the second round despite the Heat shooting 29.8% from 3. Harden also went scoreless in the second half of Game 6 while Embiid struggled with injuries throughout the series. Two years ago, Philly had the top seed in the East and lost to the Atlanta Hawks in the second round. On top of that, there is always concern about the wear and tear on Harden and Embiid as both continue to get older in their careers.
The Bet: 76ers to win Eastern Conference (+700)
Betting Spin: The time is now for Philly. It’s all or nothing this season with the veterans and depth on this team. If it doesn’t work it might be time to blow it all up. I would consider sprinkling some money on the Sixers to win the East at +700. While there is value on taking them to win it all at 14-1, so many stars have to align so I am going to go with Eastern Conference winner. I also think Harden is a good bet to lead the league in assists at +140. He averaged 10.5 assists per game with Philly last season, just behind Chris Paul (10.8).
Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season kicked off Thursday night with the Indianapolis Colts pulling out a 12-9 victory over the Denver Broncos. Hopefully Sunday we’ll get a little more excitement. We have several division matchups, culminating Sunday night with the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Baltimore Ravens.
But what does all this mean from a betting perspective? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and André Snellings, ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth Walder and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz offer insight into the games with tips and picks.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
What is your biggest betting storyline entering Week 4?
Schatz: There’s a lot of parity in the league this year. Fourteen teams are now 2-2 (plus Denver, which was 2-2 before Thursday night). Don’t let that confuse you into thinking all 2-2 teams have played the same. There’s a big difference between Baltimore’s 2-2 and Arizona’s 2-2. It’s reflected in the line, and you need to be smart about it in the way you place bets.
Walder: Just something to keep an eye on, but there has been a very slight shift in the balance of power between run and pass thus far this year. Designed rushing efficiency is at an all-time high in our data set — which goes back to 2006 — at 4.24 yards per designed carry. Yards per designed pass are down just slightly from last year (6.30 to 6.24). It’s just worth keeping in mind as we try to forecast how often — and how well — teams will decide to run.
The NBA season is almost here! Sign up for ESPN Fantasy Basketball today. Play for free
Rookie Kenny Pickett gets his first NFL start Sunday, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are 14-point underdogs at the Buffalo Bills, the largest they have been since the AFL/NFL merger (1970). The Bills (-14, 47) have struggled as well the past two weeks. Are you laying the big number or taking the 14 with a rookie QB?
Schatz: This is a close one, but if I have to choose, I’ll take the rookie quarterback and 14 points. There’s this feeling out there that the Bills’ offense is unstoppable, and it really isn’t that good. It’s pretty good! But not unstoppable. Buffalo is 10th in our offensive DVOA ratings — and Pittsburgh, even without T.J. Watt — is 10th in defensive DVOA. The other side of the ball is a huge mismatch; the rookie quarterback against our No. 2 defense. But if the Steelers can keep the Bills to a reasonable number of points, there’s a good chance the rookie quarterback can score some garbage-time points and bring us a nice backdoor cover.
Moody: The Bills’ offense averages 412.5 yards per game, which is third in the NFL. It will be difficult for a Steelers defense without T.J. Watt to slow Buffalo down. The Steelers are giving up a staggering 383 yards per game. With Josh Allen under center, Stefon Diggs, Devin Singletary and other offensive playmakers, this Bills offense should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field and scoring a ton of points. The Steelers’ defense ranks 26th in pass rush win rate. Pittsburgh will have difficulty pressuring Allen. The Steelers are averaging only 278.8 yards per game on offense, so head coach Mike Tomlin will be looking for a spark, but Kenny Pickett on the road will have a tough time going blow for blow with Allen. I’m backing the Bills despite the large spread.
A key battle for the AFC North takes place Sunday night as the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens clash in Baltimore. Cincy has rebounded after an 0-2 start, while the Ravens have lost big leads in both of their losses. The Ravens are 3-point favorites in the game and +100 to win the division, while the Bengals are +190. Who do you like in the game, and who do you like to win the North?
Fulghum: I have always liked and continue to like the Ravens to win this division. Lamar Jackson is playing out of his mind, and despite the 2-2 record, this team has played like a 4-0 team for all but two quarters so far this season. The Bengals offense is struggling mightily to produce the explosive plays that propelled Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last season, and although the Ravens’ secondary has struggled at times this season, I trust Baltimore to get back on track in this matchup as a team and take a lead in the AFC North.
Schatz: Give me Baltimore to win this division. We have the Ravens winning it more than half the time in our playoff odds simulation, making +100 still good value. They have clearly been the class of the division so far, despite those two close losses. They are third in the league in total DVOA, including No. 1 in offense and in special teams. We had the Ravens as the best team in the division coming into the season as well. Plus, they have the easiest remaining schedule in the division. Based on average DVOA of opponents, the Bengals have the hardest remaining schedule in the league and the Baltimore schedule is roughly average.
Snellings: I’ve been on record since well before the season began that I believe the Bengals will repeat as AFC North champions this season, and the first month has solidified it. The Bengals don’t win in a way that is easily quantified by models. They don’t overwhelm on either side of the ball, and they have a tendency to play to the level of their competition in either direction. But the Bengals’ strength on both sides of the ball is exactly that ability to adjust to their opponents. Their defense in the second half of games is much stingier than in the first … this was epitomized by their two wins over the Chiefs last season, where they held Patrick Mahomes & Co. to very few second-half points in a big comeback — twice. And on offense, they rely on Joe Burrow‘s accuracy and moxie to make the big plays when needed. In the first two games of this season, the inexperience of the new-look offensive line plus Burrow’s post-appendix-surgery rust were evident with 13 sacks, 3 passing touchdowns and 4 interceptions. In the past two games, as the rust has come off, it’s been only 3 sacks, 5 passing touchdowns and no interceptions. The Bengals are trending up, and they will win the close games the Ravens have been losing to take the division.
This Sunday, I like the over (over 48.5, -110). The Ravens’ offense has been nigh unstoppable this season, averaging 29.8 PPG against a slate of strong AFC East defenses. The Bengals’ offense, as I just detailed, has come together with experience, and Cincinnati has scored 27 points in each of its past two games. The Bengals’ defense is solid, but the Ravens’ defense has been a weakness. Both teams should put points on the board.
What are the three most important things that our analytics say?
Walder: Let’s look at three games FPI likes relative to the spread:
FPI still has some faith in the Panthers, which is actually quite a shock to me, particularly given that Baker Mayfield literally ranks last in QBR. But this is also about a lack of faith in the 49ers. Yes, they beat the Rams last week. And yes, they have Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback now, which is an upgrade in the model’s mind over the uncertainty of Trey Lance. But Garoppolo hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire either — he’s 27th in QBR — and so FPI just isn’t convinced San Francisco ought to lay this many points on the road.
Does anyone believe in the Giants? FPI absolutely does not. It considers Big Blue the 29th-best team in the NFL, even working under the belief that Jones will play this weekend. Similarly, it hasn’t lost faith in the Packers despite too-close-for-comfort victories over the past couple of weekends. In general, this is about FPI placing a fairly heavy amount of weight on its priors and not seeing enough to dramatically move either team yet.
As disappointing as the Buccaneers’ offense has been, their defense has been totally solid, ranking third in defensive efficiency (efficiency is expected points added per play, with garbage time downweighted). If we’re betting on one of those units to change its level of play, the model is going to bank on it being Tom Brady‘s offense being pretty good going forward.
What is your best bet for Week 5?
Dolan: Eagles first half -3. The Birds are 4-0 straight up but haven’t covered every game. The one area they excel at is the first half. Philadelphia leads the league with an average of 23 points scored in the first half. Oh, and get this … Arizona is dead last in points scored in the first half with an average of four points. Eagles cover the first half.
Fulghum:Teddy Bridgewater — aka the ATS Gawd — is getting the start for the Dolphins in Week 5. Bridgewater is 42-21 ATS as a starter in his NFL career. That is the best mark by any QB with at least 40 starts in the Super Bowl era. He is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite, which is equally impressive, if not more so. The Dolphins, having played on Thursday in Week 4, have the rest advantage, as well. I know Zach Wilson led a fourth-quarter comeback against the Steelers, which is impressive, but I’m by no means convinced that he has made massive strides yet. Dolphins -3 at Jets.
Schatz: Eagles -3 in the first half. I was going to write here about how I’ve been driving the Eagles’ bandwagon since the preseason and everybody else is finally climbing aboard. The Eagles are second in DVOA so far this season, while Arizona is 29th. That’s not a surprise, as we had the Eagles far ahead of the Cardinals in our preseason projections, namely because we expected a decline for the Arizona defense — which has happened. I was going to recommend Eagles -5 for the full game here. But Erin is right, the Cardinals are particularly weak when it comes to early scripted plays. So why worry about a backdoor cover in the fourth quarter?
Snellings: Giants +8 over Packers. The Packers have shown me nothing this season that indicates they should be giving eight points against any reasonable team. After losing convincingly to a solid but unspectacular Vikings squad and defeating the Bears, they’ve won their past two games by a combined five points over a Buccaneers squad missing all of its wide receivers and a Patriots team missing its top two quarterbacks. The Giants have been solid this season, if against limited competition.
If Daniel Jones (ankle) sits, then I withdraw this pick and my best bet reverts to the Bengals-Ravens over 48.5 that I wrote about above. But assuming Jones plays — he was able to finish last game and log limited practice time this week — then I like the Giants to cover.
Moody: The Bengals +3 over the Ravens. After a disappointing 0-2 start, Cincinnati has gained some momentum. An underperforming Baltimore defense should provide plenty of scoring opportunities for the Bengals. Last time these two teams met, Joe Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns. Additionally, the Bengals’ defense is doing a good job stopping the run and limiting the passing game. Cincinnati has done well containing Lamar Jackson in previous games. Joe Mixon and the Bengals’ running game should be in good shape as the offensive line is finally jelling. Furthermore, Cincinnati is the second-best team in the league at wearing down defenses through time of possession. It would also keep Jackson off the field. In my opinion, the Bengals will play well enough to cover the spread. Cincinnati is 7-1 against the spread in its past eight games following a straight-up win.
What is your favorite player prop?
Dolan: Burrow over 273.5 passing yards against Baltimore. This bet almost feels too easy, as the Ravens rank dead last in passing yards allowed. The Ravens aren’t terrible against the run, which makes me believe Burrow will be slinging the ball all game. He has hit over this number in three of four games, including two straight where it feels like the Bengals have found their groove again. I can’t trust the Ravens’ defense against the pass.
Fulghum:Matthew Stafford under 258.5 passing yards. The Rams have had significant struggles protecting Stafford this season against elite pass-rushing teams (Buffalo and San Francisco both sacked him seven times). Well, I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but this Micah Parsons kid is pretty good. The Rams continue to be limited offensively due to a lack of field-stretching speed to threaten the back end of the defense and an offensive line that is both injured and ineffective. Stafford might complete 15 passes to Cooper Kupp again, but don’t expect them to net explosive plays.
Schatz: Let’s go with Michael Carter under 31.5 rushing yards against the Miami Dolphins. Last week, the Jets finally moved to where we all knew they were going — Breece Hall as the No. 1 back in the committee. Now they play the Dolphins, who have been a bit of a pass funnel this year. The Dolphins rank fourth in run defense DVOA but 31st in pass defense DVOA. I see this as a competitive game throughout, but the pass plays are going to be there for Zach Wilson, which means fewer runs, especially for Carter, now that he’s RB2.
Walder:Elijah Moore under 45.5 receiving yards. I actually like Moore and think he and Garrett Wilson offer a bright future for the Jets. But there are only so many yards to go around, especially with Wilson at the helm of this offense (it’s going to take more than one nice comeback to make me a believer). Between Wilson, Moore, Corey Davis, Tyler Conklin, Breece Hall, Michael Carter … I don’t think Moore can get the target share to justify this line. My projections expect 35.5 receiving yards from Carter, making him a solid fade.
Snellings:Derrick Henry over 103.5 total rushing/receiving yards. Henry has ramped up in the past two weeks, generating 143 total yards against the Raiders and 147 total yards against a strong Colts run defense. The Commanders are allowing opposing running backs to average 112.3 total yards against them this season, and none of those opposing backs has been of Henry’s caliber.
Moody:Deebo Samuel over 55.5 receiving yards. With Garoppolo back under center, Samuel has once again become the focal point of the 49ers’ passing game. He has had 15 targets over the past two games and produced 11 receptions for 188 yards. His advantage over all Panthers cornerbacks is significant. Due to Samuel’s ability to create yards after the catch, he should easily surpass 55.5 receiving yards. In the past month, Carolina’s secondary has allowed some impressive performances from wide receivers.
Misery loves company. At least that’s what my fellow Las Vegas Raiders fans have been telling me since I was 5 years old. Conversely, celebrating is always more fun when you’ve got friends. That’s why starting this week, we are adding the fantasy football world to our weekly therapy session.
There are two things I’m sure of: My weeks are better when my beloved Raiders win, and all of our weeks are better when we share the chaos together. Let’s start filling those buckets with tears of joy or sadness.
Fantasy frustrations
The football gods wasted NO time Sunday reminding us that they run things. Imagine being the guy who was offered Rashaad Penny in a fantasy trade this week, turned the trade down, and then faced him this week? Yeah, that was my buddy Dave. Fear not, Dave, the pain was felt everywhere.
From the Raiders suddenly deciding to hand the ball off to Josh Jacobs to Penny throwing up Madden-like numbers to Miles Sanders absolutely making us all look stupid, it was what I like to call Pie Week for fantasy football players. Because by late Monday night, all of us were eating a slice of that humble pie.
—
Vann “Just take that L” Pugh
(@themadlineman) Oct 2, 2022
Verdict: Five buckets. Five overflowing buckets.
Ahhhhh, the joy of betting is that a game that most of these players’ families don’t even want to watch becomes must-see TV. The Browns were up by three at the half, and everyone who bet Cleveland in this game had to feel good. Not so fast! Two late fourth-quarter field goals gave the Falcons the win — and more importantly kept Atlanta undefeated!
No, not in the standings, don’t be silly. But where most of you care most.
It’s a game of inches, Brandon … or yards, in this case. Actually, a yard. Yikes. I’m not helping this situation.
Verdict: Four buckets
Don’t @ me, analytics nerds, about John Harbaugh’s decision to go for fourth-and-goal late in a tied game from the 2-yard line. Sometimes taking the points is like a plain bologna sandwich on generic bread. Is it exciting? No. Is it satisfying? Kind of. Do you wish it was better … had more flair … was more what you expected? Obviously. But you’ve got to eat, and food is food. You have to win, and points are points. Instead of taking those points, you give the Bills the ball back tied and Josh Allen has one of those MVP-type moments that MVP-type players have.
—
PointsBet Sportsbook
(@PointsBetUSA) Oct 2, 2022
Verdict: Three buckets
Saturday was also … well … interesting? I mean, most of us were done before the day had even started thanks to TCU’s shocking shellacking of Oklahoma. This was how we ALL felt by halftime of the early games!
But just when you thought life couldn’t get any weirder, this happened.
Imagine being the guy who went to Syracuse, knows his team incredibly well and advises all of his buddies to take the under against Wagner at 63.5. It’s 49-0 at halftime …
Everyone can rejoice! Crisis averted! We’re all rich! Orrrrrrrrrr ……
Dust if off. We will get ’em next week. And just remember no matter how much grief your friends are giving you this week for your performance last weekend, it won’t equal the amount of grief the world is giving DK.
Per the FOX broadcast, D.K. Metcalf was actually carted off to the locker room for a bathroom break.
The Week 4 NFL schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 4 slate, including our first London game of the season, Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson, Jaguars coach Doug Pederson facing his old team in Philadelphia, Derrick Henry vs. Jonathan Taylor and a big Chiefs-Bucs meeting on Sunday night. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Rams and the 49ers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
What to watch for: The Saints could be relying heavily on wide receiver Chris Olave, who was just named the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month. He has seen a large amount of targets recently and that should continue with wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry dealing with injuries. Quarterback Jameis Winston‘s back injury also continues to linger, which has contributed to offensive struggles this season. Perhaps a meeting with Minnesota is just what New Orleans needs. The Vikings have allowed 1,240 yards this season, the third most in the NFL, and at least 300 scrimmage yards in 11 consecutive games. — Katherine Terrell
Bold prediction: Saints CB Marshon Lattimore will hold Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson to less than 50 yards receiving. Lattimore uses the same kind of close-in, physical approach that Eagles CB Darius Slay and Lions CB Jeff Okudah have utilized to slow down Jefferson in the past two weeks. Until Jefferson proves he can beat that type of approach, opponents will continue using it. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: The Vikings have 13 total penalties through Week 3, second fewest in the NFL this season. But the Saints have 28 — tied for the second most.
What to know for fantasy: “Air yards” are not a fantasy stat, but they do have a way of hinting at upside. Olave leads the league in that category … by 164! See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Favorites are 18-12 against the spread (ATS) in London games. Overs and unders are split 15-15. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Vikings 23, Saints 20 Walder’s pick: Vikings 27, Saints 13 FPI prediction: NO, 51.3% (by an average of 0.4 points)
What to watch for:Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are two of the NFL’s most impactful running quarterbacks. The Bills are 12-3 (.800) when Allen runs for over 50 yards, and the Ravens are 16-1 (.941) when Jackson goes for 90 or more yards rushing. Allen and Jackson are among the favorites for NFL MVP this season because they are two of the three quarterbacks to account for over 83% of their team’s total yards (passing and rushing) through the first three games. — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs will have over 125 receiving yards for the second time this season, while the team’s receiving group deals with multiple injuries. Jake Kumerow (high ankle), is not expected to play, nor is Gabe Davis (ankle) trending in a positive direction for the game against the Ravens. Allen connecting with Diggs at a high level would go a long way in the Bills coming away with a win. Baltimore has allowed a league-high 95 total completions and 353.3 passing yards per game, which should provide opportunities for the Bills’ passing offense despite the injuries. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Buffalo has allowed just 173 total rushing yards, the second fewest in the NFL (Jaguars, 165) — including seven rushes for 20 yards by opposing quarterbacks.
What to know for fantasy: No team has allowed more deep completions this season than the Ravens, and Gabe Davis’ average depth of target for his career is over 14 yards. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Baltimore is 12-2-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since 2019. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 37, Ravens 30 Walder’s pick: Ravens 33, Bills 30 FPI prediction: BAL, 55.5% (by an average of 1.6 points)
What to watch for: Doug Pederson, the only Super Bowl-winning coach in Eagles history, makes his return to Philadelphia as head man of the Jags. QB Trevor Lawrence has grown leaps and bounds under him. The reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Week has completed 69.4% of his passes with six touchdowns to just one interception. The coach-QB tandem will face an Eagles defense that ranks sixth in pass defense (186.7 YPG) and second in sacks (12). “I have a very high opinion of Doug,” said Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. “He’s a very good playcaller. He doesn’t have a lot of tendencies. You can’t bank on certain things coming. He’s doing a good job with the quarterback playing extremely fast.” — Tim McManus
Bold prediction: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts will rush for 100 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars’ defense has been very good through three games, but it hasn’t faced a mobile QB like Hurts yet (Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan and Justin Herbert with broken rib cartilage). While the pass rush has been good (21 QB hits, 7 sacks), Hurts’ ability to escape pressure will allow him to make some plays with his legs, especially if the Jaguars are in man coverage. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: Hurts ranks first in yards per attempt (9.35) this season, and his 13 offensive plays (12 pass, 1 rush) of 20-plus yards are tied for most in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: The Jaguars have been a great surprise thus far, and running back James Robinson is a big reason. Coming off the Achilles injury, Robinson ranks third at the position in fantasy points this season, trailing only Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Philadelphia and Miami are the only teams to start 3-0 both outright and ATS. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 31, Eagles 28 Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Jaguars 21 FPI prediction: PHI, 67.3% (by an average of 5.1 points)
What to watch for: These are two of the best rushing teams in the NFL through four weeks. The Bears with the duo of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert are second in the NFL, averaging 186.7 yards per contest. Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale considers Chicago’s running game “elite.” The Giants, meanwhile, are riding Saquon Barkley. They’re fourth in the NFL, averaging 169.3 yards per game on the ground. This is expected to be the week’s lowest-scoring game with the over/under at 39.5 according to Caesars Sportsbook. — Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: The Bears leave MetLife Stadium with three sacks — matching half of their current total through three weeks — including two from Robert Quinn. Daniel Jones was pressured 24 times by Dallas, the most pressure a Giants QB has faced since 2009. Chicago’s pass rush hasn’t been all that effective (33 pass block wins, ranked 31st in the NFL), but this is the week it finally gets home with a heavy dose of new-look pressures and blitzes typically not seen from this scheme. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Bears have attempted 45 passes this season, fewest of any team through three games since the 1982 Patriots (44). Justin Fields has been intercepted on 8.9% of his attempts this season, highest in the NFL. And his 23.0 QBR ranks 31st among the 32 qualified QBs this season (only Baker Mayfield is worse).
What to know for fantasy: Don’t call it a comeback. Barkley is touching the ball 22 times a game and is on pace for over 2,000 total yards. For most, that would be the product of a small sample size, but for Barkley, it’s just pacing himself for a repeat of his rookie season in 2018. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: New York is 6-0 ATS on short rest since 2020. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Giants 17, Bears 14 Walder’s pick: Giants 20, Bears 9 FPI prediction: NYG, 65.0% (by an average of 4.4 points)
What to watch for: The Cowboys have won seven straight NFC East games as they host the Commanders at AT&T Stadium. Cooper Rush will look to become the first Cowboys quarterback to win the first four starts of his career. While the pass game has been efficient, the run game has helped, too, with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard picking up 274 yards on 52 carries in Rush’s starts. Carson Wentz has a 4-4 record against Dallas in his career, but he is coming off a game in which he was sacked nine times. The Cowboys enter Week 3 with an NFL-best 11 sacks and have three players — Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Dorance Armstrong — with six sacks. — Todd Archer
Bold prediction: Speedy Dallas receiver Michael Gallup will make a big splash in his debut. He is returning from a torn ACL and will take advantage of a Washington defense that has yielded big plays by catching a 40-yard touchdown pass. The Commanders have allowed an NFL-high five passes of 40-plus yards and 12 plays overall of that length. They played better defensively in Week 3 vs. the Eagles, but big plays remain the issue. — John Keim
Stat to know: Washington receiver Terry McLaurin is coming off his 11th career game with 100-plus receiving yards, but he has never had one against the Cowboys.
What to know for fantasy: The Commanders have coughed up a 100-yard receiver in each of the first three weeks this season, and CeeDee Lamb was a dropped pass away from a career night against the Giants on Monday Night Football last week. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Ten of the past 13 meetings have gone over the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Commanders 24, Cowboys 20 Walder’s pick: Cowboys 19, Commanders 16 FPI prediction: WSH, 53.3% (by an average of 1.1 points)
What to watch for: This game, in theory, will have two of the NFL’s top three rushers — Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (No. 1, 341 yards) and Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson (No. 3, 302 yards). Patterson, though, didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, so that could take some luster out of the matchup if he can’t go. These two teams have some interesting ties, too, including both Falcons offensive coordinator Dave Ragone and defensive coordinator Dean Pees growing up in Ohio as Browns fans. — Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: Atlanta tight end Kyle Pitts will double his career TD reception total, with two against the Browns. The Falcons, and their underrated offense, will hang around with Cleveland into the fourth quarter. — Jake Trotter
Stat to know: The Browns have scored on 14 consecutive red zone drives dating back to last season, the third-longest active streak in the NFL behind the Cowboys (24) and Titans (16).
What to know for fantasy:Amari Cooper dropped 23.1 fantasy points on the Steelers last week, giving him consecutive 20-point games for the first time since Weeks 5-6 of the 2016 season. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Both teams have gone over the total in each of their first three games. The only other team 3-0 to the over is Detroit. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Browns 31, Falcons 23 Walder’s pick: Falcons 22, Browns 17 FPI prediction: ATL, 50.1% (by an average of 0.1 points)
What to watch for: Jets QB Zach Wilson is making his season debut. The Steelers’ lack of experience against him, along with his mobility, create challenges for a defense that’s still struggling to find an identity without T.J. Watt. The Steelers have just two total sacks since Watt went out with the pectoral injury, and the run defense is again ranked near the bottom of the league after giving up 171 rushing yards to the Browns. — Brooke Pryor
Bold prediction: Rookie running back Breece Hall will record the first 100-yard rushing day of his career. After throwing a league-high 155 times in the first three games, the Jets want to be balanced with Wilson back. Michael Carter, and especially Hall, will be the beneficiary of strategic shift, as they run through the Steelers’ suspect run defense. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Steelers have a 33% third-down conversion rate this season, the second worst in the AFC after the Texans. They went 1-9 on third-down conversions against the Browns in the Week 3 loss — tied for the third-worst conversion rate since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007.
What to know for fantasy: New year, same problem. Last season, Najee Harris was king of volume, but his carries were only so valuable because he was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 30.6% of his totes. This season … 35%. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Pittsburgh is 16-1 outright with extra rest since 2017 (8-7-2 ATS). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Steelers 28, Jets 17 Walder’s pick: Steelers 27, Jets 20 FPI prediction: PIT, 67.9% (by an average of 5.4 points)
What to watch for: A hobbled Lions team could limp into the Week 4 matchup after missing several key players throughout practice during the week, including running back D’Andre Swift (ankle/shoulder), tight end T.J. Hockenson (foot) and wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) and Josh Reynolds (ankle). Both teams are entering the contest with matching 1-2 records, trying to bounce back after close, one-score losses the previous week. An interesting matchup to watch is Lions cornerback Jeff Okudah against DK Metcalf. The Seahawks receiver recently said Okudah isn’t really “locking people down” and has a safety under helping him. — Eric Woodyard
Bold prediction: The Seahawks will hold Detroit to under 115 rushing yards. That qualifies as bold given that Seattle has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game this season, including 189 and 179 the past two weeks. They might get a break Sunday with the Lions’ Swift injured, and they could get a boost with outside linebackers Boye Mafe and Darryl Johnson playing more on early downs in place of Darrell Taylor, who has struggled against the run. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The Lions are scoring 31.7 PPG — the second most in the NFL — and are allowing 31.0 PPG, the most in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: Through three weeks, both Detroit running backs rank as top-10 players at the position, but only one of them will be active this week. Jamaal Williams and his four rushing touchdowns are set to take center stage with Swift’s shoulder injury set to sideline him for at least the short term. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Detroit is 3-0 ATS this season and 14-6 ATS under Dan Campbell. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Lions 31, Seahawks 21 Walder’s pick: Lions 30, Seahawks 15 FPI prediction: DET, 65.3% (by an average of 4.5 points)
What to watch for: The Colts currently have a minus-3 turnover margin, an alarming number for a team that ranked first in this category in 2021 and second in 2020. There are two reasons: Matt Ryan has had an exceedingly rare stretch, turning the ball over six times in three games. And the defense — after finishing last season second in takeaways — has produced just three turnovers to date. Alternatively, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has thrown just three interceptions through three games. If the Colts’ defense can somehow force turnovers — and not commit turnovers — they will have a better chance at their second win of the season. — Stephen Holder
Bold prediction: Titans running back Derrick Henry will get his first 100-yard rushing performance this season. That’s bold considering the Colts are allowing a league-low 2.6 yards per carry. Henry had a season-high 65 yards after contact last week. Offensive coordinator Todd Downing feels Henry is on the verge of breaking off a long run if “they can finish blocks, that last shove, last bit of effort to will spring him into the secondary.” — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: Ryan has been sacked 12 times, the fourth most in the NFL so far this season. That’s the second-most sacks he has taken in his team’s first three games of a season in his career (13 in 2011). That is also the second-most sacks taken by a Colts QB since the franchise moved to Indianapolis in 1984 (Jim Harbaugh took 16 sacks in 1997).
What to know for fantasy: It might not be what you signed up for, but don’t panic … Jonathan Taylor has 14.8 more fantasy points through three games this season than he did during his historic 2021 campaign. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Eight straight Indianapolis games have gone under the total, including all three this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 27, Titans 24 Walder’s pick: Colts 20, Titans 17 FPI prediction: IND, 60.4% (by an average of 3.0 points)
What to watch for: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL (910), but the Texans’ pass defense has been exceptional. They’ve held opposing quarterbacks’ completion percentage to 55.1%, which is the second best in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. The Texans have 10 sacks on the year, coming in at fourth best. The coverage in the secondary has been stout, as quarterbacks are completing only 44% of their passes when targeting cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. This should be interesting as the Chargers are coming off a down week, losing to the Jaguars in Week 3. –– DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: The Chargers will clamp down on defense and keep the Texans out of the end zone. This is bold considering the Chargers’ defense is averaging the most points allowed in the AFC at 28 per game. But the Texans are among teams who are struggling to score, averaging 16.3 points per game. Watch for the Bolts’ defense behind Khalil Mack and Derwin James to play inspired, wanting to prove that it should not be counted out despite losing star edge rusher Joey Bosa indefinitely. — Lindsey Thiry
Stat to know: Los Angeles’ Austin Ekeler is the only running back in the NFL who is currently leading his team in both targets (22) and receptions (21).
What to know for fantasy:Dameon Pierce got 87% of the Texans’ RB carries last week in Chicago. Not a bad role to take into a matchup with the Chargers, the third-worst defense in terms of running back yards per carry since the beginning of last season. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Los Angeles is 0-3 outright as a road favorite under coach Brandon Staley. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chargers 31, Texans 20 Walder’s pick: Chargers 26, Texans 10 FPI prediction: LAC, 70.4% (by an average of 6.3 points)
What to watch for: Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield ranks 31st in the NFL in completion percentage (51.9), and a big issue has been poor footwork due to a lack of full trust in his offensive line that has allowed nine sacks. He should have more confidence going up against an Arizona defense that ranks 31st in sacks with only two through three games. — David Newton
Bold prediction: With the weather playing a factor, the Cardinals will commit to the run, and James Conner will have 100 yards for the first time this season and Kyler Murray will eclipse 50 for the first time. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know:Christian McCaffrey has two straight games of 100-plus rush yards after going 18 games without reaching 100. He has not had three straight 100-yard rushing games since Weeks 8-10 in 2019.
What to know for fantasy: It’s hard to know what will happen in four weeks when DeAndre Hopkins returns after Week 6, but Marquise Brown is coming off a career day and is the ninth-highest-scoring fantasy receiver this season (just ahead of first-round picks Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams). See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Arizona has won seven straight games outright as a road underdog, tied for the longest streak since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 28, Panthers 17 Walder’s pick: Cardinals 31, Panthers 14 FPI prediction: CAR, 52.8% (by an average of 0.8 points)
What to watch for: There are some telling streaks at play: Aaron Rodgers has won five straight games against AFC opponents,; the Packers have won 14 straight regular-season home games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL; and Patriots likely starting quarterback Brian Hoyer has lost 11 consecutive starts, which is the longest streak among quarterbacks currently on NFL rosters. — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: Patriots running backs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson will come close to totaling 200 rushing yards between them. This will have to be the formula for New England to have a chance to pull the upset. The Packers have shown some vulnerability against the run, with the Bears totaling 180 yards on 27 carries in Week 2, and the Vikings with 126 yards on 28 carries in Week 1. But here’s a potential problem for New England: With Rodgers completing 75% of his passes in back-to-back games, the possibility of falling behind early could make the Patriots more one-dimensional than they desire. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Patriots’ defense owns a 9.3% sack rate this season, which is the third best in the NFL. And Rodgers has taken eight sacks in three games this season.
What to know for fantasy:Romeo Doubs saw 23.5% of the targets last weekend in Tampa Bay, the highest rate for a Packer this season and potentially a sign of things to come for the promising rookie. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Green Bay is 17-7 ATS as a home favorite under coach Matt LaFleur, including 7-1 ATS since the start of last season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Packers 28, Patriots 13 Walder’s pick: Packers 24, Patriots 0 FPI prediction: GB, 88.8% (by an average of 14.7 points)
What to watch for: Raiders edge rusher Chandler Jones has zero sacks through three games, and is fast becoming a target for impatient fans. Keep an eye, then, on the four-time Pro Bowler possibly getting untracked against his favorite target in Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson. Jones has sacked Wilson 16.5 times in his career, the most sacks Jones has against any one QB. It’s a rivalry that dates to Jones’ days in Arizona and Wilson’s in Seattle. “He thought he could get away from me, leaving [the NFC West],” Jones said with a laugh back in March, “but I’m right here with him again. So, that’s going to be fun, getting after him a little bit.” — Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: Fire the confetti cannons in Denver, Broncos quarterback Wilson will have his first multiple-touchdown game with the team after having just two passing touchdowns over the first three games. And while that might not move the needle on the “bold” meter in some NFL outposts, the Broncos keep saying they’re close to something that resembles the offense they hoped to have when they exited the preseason. Plus, the Raiders have surrendered four pass plays of at least 30 yards in the first three games to go with five passing touchdowns by opposing quarterbacks. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos are averaging 14.3 PPG, second worst in the NFL. Forty-three total points in the first three games are their fewest since 2006.
What to know for fantasy: The Denver passing game has yet to really hit its stride, and yet, only four receivers in the entire league have more receiving yards than Courtland Sutton. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: All three Denver games have gone under the total by over 10 points this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Broncos 26, Raiders 17 Walder’s pick: Raiders 30, Broncos 19 FPI prediction: LV, 58.3% (by an average of 2.4 points)
What to watch for: The Bucs will have wide receivers Mike Evans (suspension) and Julio Jones (knee) back this week, with wide receiver Chris Godwin (hamstring) and left tackle Donovan Smith (elbow) also possibilities. Having scored only three offensive touchdowns in three games so far this year, they need all hands on deck to keep pace with a Chiefs team averaging 29.3 points per game. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs’ rebuilt offensive line is eager to show this wasn’t the same group from Super Bowl LV — their two sacks given up are tied for fewest in the league right now. — Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: The sixth meeting between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes will be the lowest scoring yet. The Chiefs and Bucs are struggling to score, with the Chiefs’ offense producing just 37 points in the past two games and the Bucs averaging just 17 points per game through the first three. These teams don’t look like they will combine for 39 points, the lowest output so far for a Brady-Mahomes game. It certainly won’t approach the 83 points the two generated in a 2018 game between the Chiefs and Patriots. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: The Buccaneers are looking to avoid a fourth straight game held under 20 points. Only one Brady-led team has been held under 20 points in four straight games — the 2002 Patriots.
What to know for fantasy:Leonard Fournette got loose in Week 1 for 127 yards on 21 carries. In the two games since (Mike Evans was ejected in one and suspended for the other), he has picked up just 100 yards on 36 carries. The Bucs welcome their WR1 back this week with the hopes of reopening the lanes that were there in the Week 1 win at Dallas. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: All three Tampa Bay games have gone under the total this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Chiefs 21 Walder’s pick: Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 17 FPI prediction: TB, 63.3% (by an average of 3.9 points)
What to watch for: The 49ers have had the Rams’ number in recent years, winning six straight regular-season games, but the Rams won the one that mattered most in January, advancing to the Super Bowl with a fourth-quarter surge in the NFC Championship Game. After a road loss last week in Denver, the Niners are in danger of falling two games back of the Rams in the NFC West with a loss here. To avoid that, they’ll need quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to find a groove in a hurry behind an offensive line missing star tackle Trent Williams. Garoppolo is 6-1 as a starter against Los Angeles, but his eight interceptions are the most he has thrown against any opponent. — Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction:Cooper Kupp sets a career high for receptions with 14 catches. He leads the NFL with 28 receptions, including tying his career high of 13 in Week 1 against the Bills. Kupp’s target share through three games (35%) is higher than it was during the 2021 season (32%), and that continues against the 49ers on Monday night. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Niners’ Deebo Samuel has 111 rushing yards this season, the most among players who are primarily wide receivers. He is also one of two wideouts with a rushing touchdown in 2022. The other? Kupp.
What to know for fantasy:Allen Robinson II is one of just seven players who has seen an end zone target in each of the first three weeks. His managers might be getting impatient, but converting targets like that could make up for a slow start in short order. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: San Francisco has covered all five meetings since 2020 including playoffs. Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 24, Rams 21 Walder’s pick: 49ers 23, Rams 17 FPI prediction: LAR, 60.0% (by an average of 3.0 points)
For close to 15 minutes Saturday afternoon, it seemed like Alabama was doomed. Bryce Young was hurt. Arkansas had all but erased a huge Crimson Tide lead. The college football world held its collective breath.
For more than three quarters of action Saturday night, it seemed as if the kings had been dethroned. Georgia‘s offense sputtered. Missouri built a double-digit lead. The foundation of the college football world began to crumble.
For five plays Saturday, Rutgers led Ohio State. No one really panicked here. It’s still Rutgers, and there was only so much stress to go around.
In the end, college football’s Big Three of 2022 — the Buckeyes, Bulldogs and Tide — all survived. Ohio State rolled, Alabama used a pair of long runs to assert its dominance even without Young, and Stetson Bennett rallied Georgia to a 26-22 come-from-behind win. Order had been restored.
It was a reminder that the Big Three are worthy of their place atop the sport, but also served notice that no one has a playoff berth carved into stone after just five weeks.
play
0:22
Jamon Dumas-Johnson is frustrated with Georgia’s defense as the Bulldogs give up a touchdown to go down by 10 in the second quarter to Missouri.
Young’s injury served notice of how tenuous title hopes can be, even at a place like Alabama. And Ohio State has its own injury woes at the moment, with a trio of solid defenses awaiting on the schedule. Georgia has delivered back-to-back stinkers against the likes of Kent State and Missouri. After the game, Kirby Smart shrugged off the struggles by noting, “There’s nothing easy in the SEC.” Kansas State, which beat Missouri by 28 two weeks ago, might disagree, but who are we to argue with the coach who won last year’s national championship?
So what happens if, one of these Saturdays, the Big Three don’t survive? Who’s next in the playoff pecking order?
If Week 5 didn’t deliver the shocking upsets, it did offer some separation between the pretenders and contenders behind the Big Three.
In Oxford, Ole Miss was decked out in helmets made of the same material used for those Coors Lite cans that turn blue when they’re cold, then delivered a silver bullet to Kentucky’ Wildcats playoff hopes. That the Rebels won with defense was an emphatic statement that Lane Kiffin’s team isn’t a one-dimensional attack. Kirby Smart and Jimbo Fisher each earned wins over Alabama last year, and Kiffin might now be the former Saban assistant with the best shot to upend his old boss.
After NC State beat Clemson in double overtime last year in Raleigh, Dave Doeren celebrated with a red Solo cup and a cigar. We doubt Dabo Swinney will do the same after Clemson’s impressive 30-20 win over the 10th-ranked Wolfpack Saturday (though, perhaps he’ll indulge in a tall glass of milk and some wheat toast?), but the win was a statement that the Tigers are back in the playoff hunt in 2022. DJ Uiagalelei accounted for three total touchdowns, and the Clemson defense turned in a vintage performance, all but paying rent for the amount of time it spent in the NC State backfield.
Baylor thwarted Oklahoma State twice last season, but on Saturday, the Cowboys delivered their response with a 36-25 win. Spencer Sanders, who struggled mightily in last year’s two losses, threw for 181 yards, ran for 75 more and accounted for two touchdowns. Mike Gundy’s team hasn’t gotten much love so far, but the Cowboys have won all four of their games by double digits and, if not for Big 12 power Kansas, would be a clear favorite to win the league.
Iowa‘s plan to lull Michigan to sleep by playing offense failed miserably, too. The Hawkeyes punted on each of their first five full drives, which is usually a winning formula, but not against Blake Corum, who carried 29 times for 133 yards and a touchdown in Michigan’s 27-14 win.
Meanwhile, Kentucky and NC State are likely to tumble out of the top 10. Penn State won, but served up five turnovers in an ugly performance against Northwestern. Minnesota couldn’t move the ball in a loss to the Purdue Owls with star tailback Mohamed Ibrahim sidelined. Oklahoma, Florida State and Washington all fell by the wayside in Week 5, too.
We’re just one Saturday into October. We’re still farther from the finish line than the starting blocks. There’s little point in making sweeping declarations about the contenders at this point, but Week 5 did offer a clearer picture than we’ve had before.
Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State keep winning — even if it hasn’t always been pretty.
But Clemson, Michigan, Oklahoma State and others offered their own reminder that, while only four playoff invites will go out at year’s end, the Big Three don’t need to check their mailboxes just yet.
It’s time to believe in TCU
It’s just like we’ve been saying for weeks: It’s time the rest of the country started paying attention to the upstart Big 12 team that’s opened the season 4-0 and deserves to be ranked.
After finishing last season 5-7 and firing Gary Patterson, the Horned Frogs were hardly considered contenders in the Big 12 this season, but Sonny Dykes has clearly injected some life into the offense, and Max Duggan has emerged as one of the nation’s most productive QBs.
If you weren’t a believer before Saturday, the 27 points TCU hung on Oklahoma in the first quarter should’ve had you convinced. And if you’ve ever wondered how many big plays are needed before Brent Venables’ head explodes, well, this game certainly took a swing at providing an answer.
play
0:39
Taye Barber has no one anywhere near him downfield as he hauls in the 73-yard touchdown.
TCU racked up 668 yards in the 55-24 win, including four plays of 60 yards or more.
Duggan was sublime, throwing for 302 yards and three touchdowns and rushing for 116 yards and two more scores. If the stat line looked familiar for Sooners fans, it should. In the playoff era, the only other Big 12 QB with 300 pass yards, 100 rush yards, three pass TDs and two on the ground in the same game was Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts in 2019. Duggan is just the eighth player in the playoff era from any conference to hit those marks against a Power 5 foe.
So, if Oklahoma can officially be scratched off the list of playoff contenders, is it time to start thinking about TCU as a possible Big 12 champ?
This is the Horned Frogs’ first 4-0 start since 2017 and they now have notable wins vs. the Sooners and SMU. They’ve put up 38 points in each of their first four games and, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, the 55 points vs. Oklahoma marked the most allowed by the Sooners since the 2019 Peach Bowl. That one came against Joe Burrow and LSU. The last time Oklahoma allowed 55 or more against an unranked foe was 2016. That one came against Patrick Mahomes. Yikes.
Still, for all the deserved attention TCU’s big win will get, it’s worth noting the Horned Frogs couldn’t deliver on their mid-game trolling. The family of Roger Maris will now need to attend every TCU game until the Horned Frogs score 62.
Rebels dunk UK, but hoops schools still flying high
The Ole Miss defense delivered a brutal blow to Kentucky‘s SEC hopes Saturday with a 22-19 win, then the Ole Miss social media team delivered an even more brutal blow after the win.
Somewhere, John Calipari is sipping a bourbon, throwing darts at a photo of Shaheen Holloway he keeps pinned to his wall and laughing. Yes, Kentucky remains a basketball school.
The Wildcats had their chances to pull off a road win, but an early safety left Will Levis‘ finger looking like he was trying to use his hands to do long division and was left with a remainder.
But all is not lost for the basketball schools.
Kansas had a message to those cowards voting in the AP poll, holding Iowa State cyclones to just 26 yards on the ground in a 14-11 win. Jalen Daniels‘ Heisman campaign took a bit of a hit as he completed just seven passes for 93 yards (we’re assuming he got in early foul trouble), but the defense more than made up for the offensive shortcomings.
Syracuse, too, moved to 5-0. The Orange played Wagner, which may or may not have been a bunch of elementary school kids standing on each others shoulders, wearing trench coats and jerseys.
And UCLA toppled Washington in a statement win Friday night, moving the Bruins to 5-0, too.
Add in 4-1 starts by North Carolina and Maryland, and the basketball schools are looking awfully good on the gridiron — even if Kentucky didn’t get its one shining moment at Ole Miss.
Auburn’s luck runs out
The Bryan Harsin Experience just keeps getting weirder.
Last week, Harsin was down to his fourth-string QB and just inches away from a loss to Missouri that seemed sure to be the final nail in his coffin — and he survived.
Then this week, former Alabama QB A.J. McCarron made the unsubstantiated comment that Auburn had actually already fired Harsin, but was allowing him to keep coaching for a while longer, undoubtedly following the “Office Space” principle of simply fixing the glitch in payroll and assuming Harsin would eventually realize he was no longer employed.
Nevertheless, Harsin was back on the sideline Saturday as Auburn hosted LSU, and for the first 20 minutes of action, it looked like he might find another escape hatch as Auburn jumped out to a 17-0 lead with 9:38 left in the first half.
Then LSU figured out its offense, and Auburn never scored again. Its second-half drives: punt, turnover on downs, interception, punt, fumbled punt return, interception.
— CJ Fogler AKA Perc70 #BlackLivesMatter (@cjzero) October 2, 2022
Auburn will now be moving Harsin’s office downstairs to Storage B. They’ve got a lot of new people coming in, and they really need all the space they can get.
The Huskies engineered a 94-yard drive to score a go-ahead TD with 2:20 to play and finished with a shocking 19-14 win over Fresno State.
It had been 1,050 days since UConn last won a game against an FBS opponent. In the interim, 23 teams have announced they’re changing conferences (including UConn, which went independent), Miami has been back — then not back — eight times, and James Madison, which was an FCS team a month ago, has won three games vs. FBS foes.
Even that undersells just how long it’s been since UConn did something as unexpected as Saturday’s win. UConn had been a 19.5-point underdog — the money line for a UConn win was +1050 — and yet the Huskies pulled off a win. The last win was actually at home against equally woeful UMass in a game UConn was favored to win. To find UConn’s last FBS upset, you’d need to go all the way back to 2017. This was, like, five Taylor Swift albums ago.
This is the beauty of UConn football. It serves as a time capsule for the rest of us, a means by which we can measure not the struggles of the Huskies, but rather how far the rest of us have come.
Heisman Five
Nearly every week this season, we’ve gotten an email from a reader accusing us of being a “Georgia homer.” It’s not true. We’re simply biased in favor of teams that win national championships. Still, last week, he noted Stetson Bennett‘s No. 2 ranking here and asked, “Do you even watch football? How do they let you get away with this stuff?”
Well, dear reader, we’d like to let you know we flipped over to the Georgia-Missouri game several times this week during commercials in the big ULM-Arkansas State tilt, and we must admit — you’re right. Bennett did throw for 312 yards, but it was hardly a Heisman-worthy performance against woeful Missouri.
So, we’re retiring Bennett from the Heisman Five and simply awarding him a Lifetime Achievement Award, which he can put on his trophy case next to his national championship trophy and his “World’s Greatest Dad” coffee mug Alabama’s defense gave him for Father’s Day this year.
Nick Saban said Young’s shoulder injury isn’t serious, which is great news. Well, not for Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M Aggies, who’ll now lose by 30 next week, but for Alabama fans, it’s great news.
It was hardly Stroud’s best game — 13-of-22 for 154, two touchdowns and a pick — but Ohio State won easily and not it was actually a very sportsmanlike move to not pad his stats against Rutgers, as so many Ohio State QBs have done before.
Tennessee was off this week, but we assume Hooker at least got in a game of NCAA Football ’14, downloaded new rosters and threw for 600 yards and nine touchdowns against Florida, then sent some taunting text messages to dudes from the 2014 Gators just for fun.
Williams shrugged off last week’s struggles against Oregon State Beavers, accounting for TDs on each of USC’s first three drives against Arizona State on Saturday.
Maye threw for 363 and three touchdowns, ran for 73 and two more scores, and UNC dominated Virginia Tech Hokies 41-10. Maye has thrown for 300 yards and three TDs in four of his five games so far this season. And given that UNC’s defense has played horribly for most of the season, Maye’s going to have plenty of chances to keep putting up big numbers.
Break up the Illini
We’re five weeks into the season, and it feels like an appropriate moment for the college football world to take a quick step back, peruse the standings, and ask a question that has frustrated even the most renowned philosophers, scientists and scholars: Hey, is Illinois good?
The Illini are 4-1 for the first time since 2015 after throttling Wisconsin 34-10 on Saturday, led by a Syracuse cast-off and an absolutely dominant run defense. It was Illinois’ biggest road win since 2015, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, and it snapped an eight-game losing streak at Camp Randall.
On Saturday, QB Tommy DeVito pulled off a pretty neat trick: He ran for minus-2 yards in the game, but he also had three rushing touchdowns. It’s a rare feat to have five fewer rushing yards than rushing TDs, but at Illinois, DeVito has managed to combine a new-found scoring touch to go with his long established ability to serve as a tackling dummy. From 2019-21, DeVito was sacked 70 times at Syracuse, despite starting just 18 games. He’s been dumped in the backfield 11 more times this season, but he’s also racked up 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
The big key to Illinois’ success thus far has been the defense, which has been a brick wall against the run. Wisconsin managed just 2 rushing yards on 24 carries Saturday, marking the worst output on the ground by the Badgers since 2015 against Northwestern. For the season, Illinois has allowed just 351 yards on the ground, and has held four straight opponents to less than 100 yards rushing.
The most college football thing to happen Saturday
Phil Jurkovec led Boston College to a 34-33 win over Louisville on Saturday, throwing for 304 yards and three touchdowns, including completions of 50, 57 and 69.
Unfortunately, the throw that’ll likely show up most on SportsCenter this week wasn’t one to remember. Jurkovec was essentially in a full-on Neo-in-The Matrix position as he tossed the ball backward in the general direction of running back Pat Garwo III. From there, it got silly.
This was ugly. Like real ugly.
Trying to avoid the sack, BC QB Phil Jurkovec threw the ball away, but it went backwards.
BC RB Pat Garwo III tried to recover the now-fumble. Instead, though, Louisville’s YaYa Diaby hopped on it.
But hey, all’s well that ends well. Malik Cunningham scored two plays later to give Louisville the lead, but the Cardinals couldn’t hold on, as Boston College earned its first ACC win of the season.
Under-the-radar play of the day
Jaivian Lofton‘s catch to open the scoring in Liberty‘s game against Old Dominion would warrant its inclusion here regardless. It’s a ridiculous one-handed snag on a 34-yard TD. But what truly puts this one over the top is the reaction.
play
0:26
Liberty QB Kaidon Salter lofts a ball into the end zone, where Jaivian Lofton makes a one-handed catch for the score.
Lofton basically treated the catch like he was picking up a DoorDash order at Arby’s. Zero emotion. We hope Lofton is like this in every aspect of life. Ace a test? No biggie. Win the lottery? Cool, he’ll send you his routing number in the morning. Finds out Kansas is 5-0? OK, no one could take that in stride.
Under-the-radar game of the day
Holy Cross toppled Harvard 30-21 on Saturday to move to 5-0 and, perhaps, put in its claim as the best team in Massachusetts this season.
Crusaders QB Matthew Sluka threw for 300 yards and two TDs, while Jalen Coker caught 10 balls for 166 yards in the win. It marked the first time Harvard lost a game by more than one possession since its 2019 opener.
Holy Cross is now 5-0, including a road win against FBS Buffalo last month, giving the Crusaders a pretty good case as the Commonwealth’s top team. Holy Cross has head-to-head wins over Merrimack and Harvard now, and both BC and UMass are below .500 for the season. That leaves Stonehill (3-0) as the only other contender, and frankly, we just learned that Stonehill was in Massachusetts.
Big bets and bad beats
Syracuse was cruising toward an easy cover over FCS Wagner on Saturday, but it turns out, it was a little *too* easy.
The line closed at Syracuse -54, which seemed about right given that Wagner is 1-27 since 2019 and had already lost to Rutgers by 59 this season. And, as expected, Syracuse rolled early, jumping out to a 49-0 lead at the half.
Easy cover, right?
Well, no. Wagner waved the white flag, and sports books waived the bets.
Syracuse went on to win 59-0 — a cover for the Orange and the under, but due to the shortened quarters, the bets didn’t count. Kudos to Caesars for having the courage to say what the rest of us were thinking.
There’s no such thing as easy money, but the service academies at least offer something close. Air Force hosted Navy on Saturday in the first Commander’s Cup matchup of the season, and that means it’s time to throw some money on the under. What was the total? Doesn’t matter. Whatever the total is, bet the under. In the playoff era, the under in Commander’s Cup games is 22-2-1, and it’s hit 77% of the time.
In this case, the the total closed at 38. It’s a low number. Low enough to worry about the under? Heck, no.
OK, so you bet the under, then Air Force found the end zone on its opening drive on a 67-yard pass play. Now you’re worried, right? Ah, still no.
Of the remaining 19 drives in the game, 10 ended with punts. The others: a Navy touchdown, two field goals (including one after Navy got the ball deep in Air Force territory), a turnover on downs, two fumbles (including one in the red zone), a missed field goal and a seven-play drive that chewed up the final 3:49 of the game.
That, friends, is a recipe for another under. Final score: Air Force 13, Navy 10.
The under has now covered in nine straight games that featured two of the three service academies, and 14 of the last 15.
Oklahoma State jumped out to a big lead and cruised to a 36-25 win over Baylor. The Cowboys had been a 2.5-point favorite, which is hallowed ground for head coach Mike Gundy. As ESPN’s Chris Fallica noted, since 2016, Oklahoma State is now 14-3 in games when the spread is +/- 3.5 points, including a ridiculous 13-2 in those situations on the road.
A 7-2 week moves us to 19-11. I’ve given out three straight winners in the NFL as well in our Wednesday Head-to-Head segment, but adding that on to the official record, would be tacky. I’m many things — tacky ain’t one of them. So, we are officially 19-11. You want nine more? That’s convenient — that’s how many are on the card.
Friday
No. 15 Washington (-3, 64.5) at UCLA 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
Van Pelt’s pick: UCLA (+3)
If you are familiar with the segment, you can guess certain teams in certain spots that are given. UCLA at home on Friday against red hot and unbeaten Washington is one of those teams. Bruins at home to get us soaring into Saturday off a late-night Friday cover. We are buying it to 3.
SVP: 5-2 ALL-TIME PICKING AGAINST WASHINGTON WITH UNRANKED TEAM
Saturday
Purdue at No. 21 Minnesota (-12, 53.5) 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2, Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Van Pelt’s pick: Purdue (+12)
We are active in the noon window. Watch Gameday, settle in and fire, right? Why wouldn’t ya? Minnesota has been dump-trucking people. The Gophers outscored four opponents by 159 points. But we can’t yell “Bang that big drum!” if we take them — can we? We cannot. So, gimme double digits and the Boilers.
SVP: 5-2 ALL-TIME PICKING PURDUE
No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss (-7, 54.5) 12 p.m. ET on ESPN, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
Van Pelt’s pick: Ole Miss (-7)
Question for the Grove? Are … You … Ready? Well, I am ready to lay points with the Rebs with Kentucky in town. Meet you at The Library to celebrate.
SVP: 10-4 ALL-TIME PICKING SEC FAVORITES
No. 18 Oklahoma (-7, 46) at TCU 12 p.m. ET on ABC, Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Van Pelt’s pick: TCU (+7)
Feels like we’re late to back the Horned Frogs this year — well, yeah. Went against them last week and paid the price, we will buy it up to 7 and hope for the best with OU visiting the stockyards.
SVP: 8-5 ALL-TIME PICKING AGAINST OKLAHOMA
Iowa State (-3, 59) at Kansas 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2, David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, Kansas
Van Pelt’s pick: Iowa State (-3)
This hurts me to do. I love Lawrence and the Jayhawks story. But with Kansas rolling and unbeaten, why are the Jayhawks underdogs at home to Iowa State? Makes no sense to you, does it? Does to me. If you know — you know. Gotta lay the number here. Sorry, Kansas — I know you’re furious.
This one was a late add. Not sure on what kind of weather we are looking at in Chapel Hill, but if they play as normal on the field or if you have to ride around in boats, your defense isn’t slowing many people down. We will take the generous candy and the road team from Blacksburg.
Coogs, we love ya for getting the late score to help us get a cover for Winners last week. I’m afraid that might have taken a chunk out of the psyche. We are on Cal plus the small number on the Paloose.
SVP: 7-3 ALL-TIME PICKING CALIFORNIA
Virginia at Duke (-3, 52) 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN3, Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, North Carolina
Van Pelt’s pick: Virginia (+3)
The last two are concerning. Virginia, you got us to the window last week in a weird one at Syracuse. The number in Durham seems a bit light. Lots of extra juice this week — so be it — we are buying this to 3 and scratching our heads curious if UVa is the right side here.
SVP: 6-2 ALL-TIME PICKING VIRGINIA
No. 1 Georgia (-29, 54.5) at Missouri 7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network, Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri
Van Pelt’s pick: Mizzou (+29)
Last one — HOTYBS. What’s a HOTYBS? A Hold On To Your Butt Special. Mizzou, you covered for us on the plains last Saturday. But going against Georgia is terrifying even when you get 29. Looking for a show of hands out there — who’s with me? Not one human. Hell with it — it’s fine — we’ll do it. We’ll take the Tigers.
SVP: 1-4 ALL-TIME PICKING UNRANKED TEAMS vs NO. 1 TEAM
OK. There’s your 9-er. Birdcage — reverse — no tease.
Week 5 of the college football season features more teams around the country starting their conference schedule, including five matchups between ranked teams in the AP Top 25.
No. 2 Alabama takes on No. 20 Arkansas in Fayetteville, No. 7 Kentucky will travel to Oxford to face No. 13 Ole Miss in a battle of undefeated SEC teams, No. 22 Wake Forest squares up against No. 23 Florida State and No. 5 Clemson welcomes No. 10 NC State to Memorial Stadium for a primetime ACC showdown on ABC.
But which games should bettors look at across this weekends slate?
We have everything you need to make your wagering decisions ahead of Week 5.
Check out all of the betting notes and trends courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.
Thursday
Utah State at No. 19 BYU (-24, 61.5) 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo
Utah State is one of four FBS teams that is 0-4 ATS this season.
Utah State is 2-10 ATS as a double-digit underdog since the start of the 2017 season (1-1 ATS under Blake Anderson).
Kalani Sitake is 3-2 SU and ATS against Utah State since becoming BYU head coach.
The 24-point spread is the largest BYU has been favorited against Utah State since 2008 (-29).
Friday
No. 15 Washington at UCLA (-3.5, 64.5) 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Rose Bowl, Pasadena
Washington is one of eight FBS teams that is 4-0 ATS this season.
All five Washington road games have gone under the total since the start of last season.
UCLA is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against Washington.
Road favorites are 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS in Pac-12 play this season.
Saturday
No. 4 Michigan (-10, 42.5) at Iowa 12 p.m. ET, Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City
Iowa is 9-2 ATS against AP Top-5 ranked teams since the start of the 2008 season.
Michigan is 11-4 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, best such cover percentage in the Big Ten over that span (min. 10 games as a favorite).
Seven of Michigan’s last eight road games have gone over the total.
Michigan has lost four consecutive games outright at Iowa (2-2 ATS).
No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss (-7, 54.5) 12 p.m. ET on ESPN, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford
Kentucky is 15-5-2 ATS against AP-ranked teams since the start of the 2015 season.
15 of Kentucky’s 20 road games have gone under the total since the start of the 2018 season.
This is the largest favorite Ole Miss has been against an AP Top 10 team since the FBS/FCS split in 1978.
Ole Miss is 0-3 ATS as a favorite against AP Top 10 teams since the FBS/FBS split in 1978.
No. 18 Oklahoma (-3, 46) at TCU 12 p.m. ET on ABC, Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth
Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against TCU.
The over is 15-3 in Oklahoma games following a straight-up loss since the start of the 2012 season.
TCU is 1-5 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.
Road favorites are 12-6 SU and 8-9-1 ATS in Big 12 play since the start of last season (Oklahoma 0-3 ATS in that spot).
Purdue at No. 21 Minnesota (-10.5, 53.5) 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2, Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Minnesota is one of eight FBS teams that is 4-0 ATS this season.
Minnesota has been a double-digit favorite in three of their four games this season (3-0 ATS in those games).
Purdue is 19-7 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2014 season (8-4 ATS in that spot under Jeff Brohm).
Purdue is 10-4 ATS against AP-ranked teams under Jeff Brohm, best such cover percentage in the Big Ten over that span.
Kansas State is 4-0-1 ATS against Texas Tech since the start of the 2017 season.
Kansas State is 12-5-1 ATS as a favorite under Chris Klieman, the best cover percentage as a favorite in the Big 12 since the start of the 2019 season.
Texas Tech is 2-4 SU and ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of the last season.
Favorites of seven or more points are 0-3 ATS in Big 12 play this season.
Oregon State at No. 12 Utah (-10.5, 56.5) 2 p.m. ET, Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City
Oregon State is one of eight FBS teams that is 4-0 ATS this season.
Oregon State is 4-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog since the start of the 2020 season.
Oregon State is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2019 season, the best cover percentage among Power 5 programs over that span (min. 5 games as a road underdog).
Utah is 3-0 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite.
No. 2 Alabama (-16.5, 61.5) at No. 20 Arkansas 3:30 p.m. ET, Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville
Alabama has never lost outright to Arkansas under Nick Saban (8-6-1 ATS).
Alabama is 18-6 SU, 12-12 ATS on the road against AP Top-20 SEC opponents under Nick Saban.
Arkansas is 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS following a straight-up loss under Sam Pittman.
Arkansas has not beaten an AP Top-5 team since 2007 (0-17 SU, 8-9 ATS).
Rutgers at No. 3 Ohio State (-41, 59.5) 3:30 p.m. ET,Ohio Stadium, Columbus
Rutgers is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2020 season, the best such cover percentage in the Big Ten over that span (min. 5 games as a road underdog).
All eight Rutgers away games since the start of last season have gone under the total.
Ohio State is 9-4 ATS at home in Big Ten play under Ryan Day.
Ohio State is 17-9-1 ATS as a favorite in Big Ten play under Ryan Day.
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor (-2.5, 54.5) 3:30 p.m. ET, McLane Stadium, Waco
Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS on the road since the start of last season; 1 of 3 teams in the FBS with an undefeated ATS record on the road since the start of last season (min. 2 road games).
Oklahoma State is 10-2 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2018 season, the best such cover percentage in the FBS over that span (min. 2 games as an underdog).
Baylor is 3-0 ATS against AP Top-10 teams since the start of last season.
Baylor is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season.
Week 4 features several marquee coaches and quarterbacks in rare underdog roles.
Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots square off against Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers with the Patriots currently listed as 9.5 point underdogs. Belichick has the best ATS record since he joined the Patriots in 2000, while LaFleur has the best ATS record since he became a head coach in 2019.
Belichick faces his second-largest underdog role in two decades. If the line closes past double-digits, Belichick looks to match Lou Saban for the most wins as a double-digit underdog in the Super Bowl era, including the playoffs. Belichick is 7-5 outright as a double-digit underdog (10-2 ATS), making him the only coach in the Super Bowl era with a winning outright record as a double-digit underdog (minimum 10 games as underdog).
Belichick’s former pupil Tom Brady is currently a home underdog as well. Brady is 9-3 outright and 11-1 ATS as a home underdog in his career. It snaps a 22-game streak of Brady being favored including the playoffs. That had been the second-longest active streak behind his opposing quarterback, Patrick Mahomes.
Another quarterback with great success as an underdog is Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore Ravens are 9-1 ATS and 7-3 outright with Jackson as an underdog with Jackson. The Ravens are home underdogs against the Bills.
The Cardinals hope to extend a pair of streaks in Carolina, as Arizona has won seven straight games outright as a a road underdog. Meanwhile, Carolina has lost seven straight games outright as a favorite.
One streak that appears to be coming to an end is the Detroit Lions’ streak of 26 games without being favored. Detroit is currently a home favorite against Seattle. Two weeks ago, the Lions were favored most of the week against the Washington Commanders until the line closed pick’em.
Miami and Philadelphia are the only teams to start 3-0 both outright and ATS.
Tua Tagovailoa is 8-3-1 ATS and 7-5 outright as an underdog in his career. He is 7-1-1 ATS and 6-3 outright when getting at least 3.5 points. Overall, Miami is 13-6-1 ATS as an underdog since drafting Tagovailoa in 2020.
This is the first time a team 3-0 or better has been at least a 3.5-point underdog against a team with a losing record since 2018. That year, 3-0 Miami lost 38-7 in New England as a 6.5-point underdog.
All three Cincinnati games have gone under the total this season.
Prime-time unders are 7-3 this season and 95-69-3 (.579) over the past four seasons.
Favorites are 18-12 ATS in London games. Overs and unders are split 15-15.
New Orleans is 0-3 ATS this season. Dennis Allen is 14-25 ATS as a head coach.
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its past six games as an underdog, but since 2014, it is 30-15 ATS as an underdog.
Both teams have gone over the total in each of their first three games. The only other team 3-0 to the over is Detroit.
Cleveland is 8-15 ATS as a favorite under Kevin Stefanski (2-4 ATS as road favorite). This is just the second time that Jacoby Brissett is a road favorite (lost outright as 5.5-point favorite with Indianapolis against Jacksonville in 2019).
Atlanta is 3-0 ATS this season. Last season, Atlanta was 6-10-1 ATS in Arthur Smith’s first season. Under Smith, Atlanta is 8-5 ATS when it is not at least a seven-point underdog and 1-5-1 ATS when getting at least a touchdown.
Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in nonconference games under Kevin Stefanski.
Cleveland has covered 10 of the last 11 meetings dating back to 1978.
Baltimore is 14-2 ATS as an underdog since 2018 (9-7 outright), including 9-1 ATS in Lamar Jackson‘s starts (7-3 outright).
Lamar Jackson is 2-0 outright as a home underdog in his career. Since 2019, Baltimore is 5-0 ATS as a home underdog (3-2 outright).
Baltimore is 12-2-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since 2019.
John Harbaugh is 29-19-2 ATS as an underdog of at least three points.
Josh Allen is 20-10-1 ATS in his career on the road.
Since the start of last season, Dallas is 10-3 ATS as a favorite, 7-0 ATS in division games and 12-2 ATS in conference games.
Ten of the last 13 meetings have gone over the total.
Cooper Rush is 3-0 outright and ATS in his career as a starter, though this is the first time he is favored. The only quarterbacks to debut in the past 20 seasons to start 4-0 both outright and ATS are Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, Jimmy Garoppolo and Trevor Siemian.
Detroit will snap a 26-game streak of not being favored (longest active streak in NFL). Detroit has not been at least a four-point favorite since 2019.
Detroit is 3-0 ATS this season and is 14-6 ATS under Dan Campbell. Campbell is 2-3 ATS when he is not at least a four-point underdog (12-3 ATS as at least a four-point underdog).
Detroit has gone over the total in all three games. The only other teams that have gone over the total in all three games are Atlanta and Cleveland.
Seattle is 44-27-2 ATS as an underdog under Pete Carroll.
Los Angeles is 0-3 outright as a road favorite under Brandon Staley.
Davis Mills is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog with three straight covers.
Houston is 2-0-1 ATS this season, one of four teams unbeaten ATS.
Houston has covered five straight conference games.
Eight straight Indianapolis games have gone under the total, including all three this season.
Indianapolis is 0-3-1 outright and 0-4 ATS in its past four games as a favorite (0-1-1 this season).
Tennessee games are 31-14-1 to the over when Ryan Tannehill starts.
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS outright and ATS against Indianapolis with Tannehill at quarterback with three straight covers.
New York is 0-4 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2020. This is the first time New York has been favored in back-to-back games since Weeks 15-16 of 2019.
Chicago is 4-11 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.
Chicago is 9-17 ATS on the road since 2019.
New York is 6-0 ATS on short rest since 2020.
Chicago has beaten New York each of the past three seasons (2-1 ATS), with all three meetings going under the total.
Philadelphia and Miami are the only teams to start 3-0 both outright and ATS.
Philadelphia is 3-0-1 ATS as a home favorite under Nick Sirianni.
Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games, but it upset the Los Angeles Chargers as 6.5-point underdogs last week. Jacksonville’s past five road games went over the total.
Philadelphia is now co-favored to win its conference (+375) after entering the season at 11-1 (sixth in odds). The team opened 18-1 (tied for ninth in odds) back in February.
Pittsburgh is 0-8 ATS in its past eight games when laying at least 3.5 points (3-4-1 SU) including playoffs.
New York is 3-6 ATS on the road under Robert Saleh. Since 2017, New York is 13-27-1 ATS on the road.
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season.
All five meetings since 2012 have gone under the total.
Pittsburgh is 16-1 outright with extra rest since 2017 (8-7-2 ATS).
Since the start of last season, Arizona is 7-0 outright as a road underdog (+12.5 units on moneyline). That is tied with 1979-80 Seattle for the longest such winning streak in the Super Bowl era. However, Arizona lost a playoff game as a road underdog last season (did not cover). Arizona is 9-1 ATS in all road regular-season games since the start of last season.
Carolina has lost seven straight games outright as a favorite. There have only been two longer outright losing streaks as a favorite since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger (nine straight by 1979-81 Seattle, eight straight by 2015-16 Atlanta). Carolina is 1-9 outright and ATS in its past 10 games as a home favorite with four straight losses.
Carolina snapped a nine-game outright and ATS losing streak by beating New Orleans as a two-point home underdog last week. Carolina is 3-14 ATS in its past 17 games.
Kliff Kingsbury is 19-10-1 ATS on the road.
Bill Belichick is 7-5 outright (10-2 ATS) in his career as a double-digit underdog, including the playoffs. The seven wins are tied for second-most in the Super Bowl era behind Lou Saban (8). Out of 90 coaches with at least 10 games as an underdog, Belichick is the only one with a winning outright record. He is 4-1 outright and ATS as a double-digit underdog with New England, though the only loss was the only such instance he didn’t have Tom Brady as his quarterback (Brian Hoyer).
This is just the second time in the last 20 seasons that New England has been a double-digit underdog (2020 at Kansas City, lost by 16 as 11-point underdogs).
New England is 59-33-1 ATS after a loss under Bill Belichick, including 25-5 ATS when he is an underdog following a loss (20-10 outright).
New England is 0-2-1 ATS this season. It’s the first time in Belichick’s head coaching career that he has failed to cover any of his teams’ first three games of a season.
Green Bay is 17-7 ATS as a home favorite under Matt LaFleur, including 7-1 ATS since the start of last season.
Green Bay is 4-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of last season.
All three Green Bay games have gone under the total this season.
Since Bill Belichick was hired in New England in 2000, New England has the best ATS record (204-145-7, .585). Since Matt LaFleur was hired in Green Bay in 2019, Green Bay has the best ATS record (34-18, .654).
Las Vegas has covered eight of the past nine meetings.
All three Denver games have gone under the total by over 10 points this season.
Las Vegas is the only team that has yet to win or cover a game this season.
Las Vegas is 1-7 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season (3-5 outright).
Josh McDaniels is 13-18 ATS in his career as a head coach. After winning and covering his first six games in Denver in 2009, McDaniels is 7-18 ATS and 5-20 outright. He is 4-7 outright and ATS as a favorite, including 0-2 this season.
Denver is 0-4 ATS in its past four road games (0-1 ATS this season).
Tom Brady is 11-1 ATS and 9-3 outright in his career as a home underdog including the playoffs. The only quarterback with a better ATS record as a home underdog in the Super Bowl era is Ken Stabler (9-0-1 ATS), minimum six starts as home underdog including playoffs.
This will snap Tom Brady’s 22-game streak as a favorite including the playoffs, the second-longest active streak, behind only Patrick Mahomes, who will be a favorite for a 39th straight game. The last time Brady was an underdog was in 2020 against Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Mahomes’ streak is the fourth-longest in the Super Bowl era.
Patrick Mahomes is 8-2-1 ATS in his career when the line is between +3 and -3.
Kansas City is 47-26-1 ATS on the road under Andy Reid, the best mark in the NFL since 2013.
All three Tampa Bay games have gone under the total this season.
Tom Brady is 2-8 ATS in prime-time games since joining Tampa Bay in 2020.
Prime-time unders are 7-3 this season and 95-69-3 (.579) over the past four seasons.
San Francisco has covered all five meetings since 2020 including playoffs.
Kyle Shanahan is 7-16-2 ATS as a home favorite. However, he is 4-0 ATS in that role in his past four games after losing his previous nine games in that role outright.
Sean McVay is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog (5-5 outright). Overs are 8-2 in those games.
All three San Francisco games have gone under the total this season.
Prime-time unders are 7-3 this season and 95-69-3 (.579) over the past four seasons.
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-7.5, 40)
2. C.J. Stroud, QB, 
3. Bryce Young, QB, 
No. 7 
No. 18 
No. 1 
No. 4 
No. 2 
No. 9 
No. 22 
No. 17 
No. 10 
