Week 4 features several marquee coaches and quarterbacks in rare underdog roles.
Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots square off against Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers with the Patriots currently listed as 9.5 point underdogs. Belichick has the best ATS record since he joined the Patriots in 2000, while LaFleur has the best ATS record since he became a head coach in 2019.
Belichick faces his second-largest underdog role in two decades. If the line closes past double-digits, Belichick looks to match Lou Saban for the most wins as a double-digit underdog in the Super Bowl era, including the playoffs. Belichick is 7-5 outright as a double-digit underdog (10-2 ATS), making him the only coach in the Super Bowl era with a winning outright record as a double-digit underdog (minimum 10 games as underdog).
Belichick’s former pupil Tom Brady is currently a home underdog as well. Brady is 9-3 outright and 11-1 ATS as a home underdog in his career. It snaps a 22-game streak of Brady being favored including the playoffs. That had been the second-longest active streak behind his opposing quarterback, Patrick Mahomes.
Another quarterback with great success as an underdog is Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore Ravens are 9-1 ATS and 7-3 outright with Jackson as an underdog with Jackson. The Ravens are home underdogs against the Bills.
The Cardinals hope to extend a pair of streaks in Carolina, as Arizona has won seven straight games outright as a a road underdog. Meanwhile, Carolina has lost seven straight games outright as a favorite.
One streak that appears to be coming to an end is the Detroit Lions’ streak of 26 games without being favored. Detroit is currently a home favorite against Seattle. Two weeks ago, the Lions were favored most of the week against the Washington Commanders until the line closed pick’em.
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Miami and Philadelphia are the only teams to start 3-0 both outright and ATS.
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Tua Tagovailoa is 8-3-1 ATS and 7-5 outright as an underdog in his career. He is 7-1-1 ATS and 6-3 outright when getting at least 3.5 points. Overall, Miami is 13-6-1 ATS as an underdog since drafting Tagovailoa in 2020.
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This is the first time a team 3-0 or better has been at least a 3.5-point underdog against a team with a losing record since 2018. That year, 3-0 Miami lost 38-7 in New England as a 6.5-point underdog.
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All three Cincinnati games have gone under the total this season.
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Prime-time unders are 7-3 this season and 95-69-3 (.579) over the past four seasons.
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Favorites are 18-12 ATS in London games. Overs and unders are split 15-15.
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New Orleans is 0-3 ATS this season. Dennis Allen is 14-25 ATS as a head coach.
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New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its past six games as an underdog, but since 2014, it is 30-15 ATS as an underdog.
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Both teams have gone over the total in each of their first three games. The only other team 3-0 to the over is Detroit.
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Cleveland is 8-15 ATS as a favorite under Kevin Stefanski (2-4 ATS as road favorite). This is just the second time that Jacoby Brissett is a road favorite (lost outright as 5.5-point favorite with Indianapolis against Jacksonville in 2019).
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Atlanta is 3-0 ATS this season. Last season, Atlanta was 6-10-1 ATS in Arthur Smith’s first season. Under Smith, Atlanta is 8-5 ATS when it is not at least a seven-point underdog and 1-5-1 ATS when getting at least a touchdown.
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Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in nonconference games under Kevin Stefanski.
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Cleveland has covered 10 of the last 11 meetings dating back to 1978.
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Baltimore is 14-2 ATS as an underdog since 2018 (9-7 outright), including 9-1 ATS in Lamar Jackson‘s starts (7-3 outright).
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Lamar Jackson is 2-0 outright as a home underdog in his career. Since 2019, Baltimore is 5-0 ATS as a home underdog (3-2 outright).
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Baltimore is 12-2-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since 2019.
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John Harbaugh is 29-19-2 ATS as an underdog of at least three points.
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Josh Allen is 20-10-1 ATS in his career on the road.
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Since the start of last season, Dallas is 10-3 ATS as a favorite, 7-0 ATS in division games and 12-2 ATS in conference games.
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Ten of the last 13 meetings have gone over the total.
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Cooper Rush is 3-0 outright and ATS in his career as a starter, though this is the first time he is favored. The only quarterbacks to debut in the past 20 seasons to start 4-0 both outright and ATS are Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, Jimmy Garoppolo and Trevor Siemian.
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Detroit will snap a 26-game streak of not being favored (longest active streak in NFL). Detroit has not been at least a four-point favorite since 2019.
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Detroit is 3-0 ATS this season and is 14-6 ATS under Dan Campbell. Campbell is 2-3 ATS when he is not at least a four-point underdog (12-3 ATS as at least a four-point underdog).
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Detroit has gone over the total in all three games. The only other teams that have gone over the total in all three games are Atlanta and Cleveland.
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Geno Smith is 22-15 ATS in his career, including 5-2 ATS since leaving the New York Jets.
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Seattle is 44-27-2 ATS as an underdog under Pete Carroll.
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Los Angeles is 0-3 outright as a road favorite under Brandon Staley.
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Davis Mills is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog with three straight covers.
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Houston is 2-0-1 ATS this season, one of four teams unbeaten ATS.
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Houston has covered five straight conference games.
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Eight straight Indianapolis games have gone under the total, including all three this season.
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Indianapolis is 0-3-1 outright and 0-4 ATS in its past four games as a favorite (0-1-1 this season).
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Tennessee games are 31-14-1 to the over when Ryan Tannehill starts.
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Tennessee is 4-1 ATS outright and ATS against Indianapolis with Tannehill at quarterback with three straight covers.
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New York is 0-4 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2020. This is the first time New York has been favored in back-to-back games since Weeks 15-16 of 2019.
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Chicago is 4-11 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.
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Chicago is 9-17 ATS on the road since 2019.
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New York is 6-0 ATS on short rest since 2020.
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Chicago has beaten New York each of the past three seasons (2-1 ATS), with all three meetings going under the total.
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Philadelphia and Miami are the only teams to start 3-0 both outright and ATS.
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Philadelphia is 3-0-1 ATS as a home favorite under Nick Sirianni.
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Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games, but it upset the Los Angeles Chargers as 6.5-point underdogs last week. Jacksonville’s past five road games went over the total.
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Philadelphia is now co-favored to win its conference (+375) after entering the season at 11-1 (sixth in odds). The team opened 18-1 (tied for ninth in odds) back in February.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5), Sunday at 1 ET
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Pittsburgh is 0-8 ATS in its past eight games when laying at least 3.5 points (3-4-1 SU) including playoffs.
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New York is 3-6 ATS on the road under Robert Saleh. Since 2017, New York is 13-27-1 ATS on the road.
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Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season.
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All five meetings since 2012 have gone under the total.
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Pittsburgh is 16-1 outright with extra rest since 2017 (8-7-2 ATS).
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Since the start of last season, Arizona is 7-0 outright as a road underdog (+12.5 units on moneyline). That is tied with 1979-80 Seattle for the longest such winning streak in the Super Bowl era. However, Arizona lost a playoff game as a road underdog last season (did not cover). Arizona is 9-1 ATS in all road regular-season games since the start of last season.
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Carolina has lost seven straight games outright as a favorite. There have only been two longer outright losing streaks as a favorite since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger (nine straight by 1979-81 Seattle, eight straight by 2015-16 Atlanta). Carolina is 1-9 outright and ATS in its past 10 games as a home favorite with four straight losses.
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Carolina snapped a nine-game outright and ATS losing streak by beating New Orleans as a two-point home underdog last week. Carolina is 3-14 ATS in its past 17 games.
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Kliff Kingsbury is 19-10-1 ATS on the road.
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Bill Belichick is 7-5 outright (10-2 ATS) in his career as a double-digit underdog, including the playoffs. The seven wins are tied for second-most in the Super Bowl era behind Lou Saban (8). Out of 90 coaches with at least 10 games as an underdog, Belichick is the only one with a winning outright record. He is 4-1 outright and ATS as a double-digit underdog with New England, though the only loss was the only such instance he didn’t have Tom Brady as his quarterback (Brian Hoyer).
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This is just the second time in the last 20 seasons that New England has been a double-digit underdog (2020 at Kansas City, lost by 16 as 11-point underdogs).
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New England is 59-33-1 ATS after a loss under Bill Belichick, including 25-5 ATS when he is an underdog following a loss (20-10 outright).
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New England is 0-2-1 ATS this season. It’s the first time in Belichick’s head coaching career that he has failed to cover any of his teams’ first three games of a season.
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Green Bay is 17-7 ATS as a home favorite under Matt LaFleur, including 7-1 ATS since the start of last season.
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Green Bay is 4-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of last season.
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All three Green Bay games have gone under the total this season.
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Since Bill Belichick was hired in New England in 2000, New England has the best ATS record (204-145-7, .585). Since Matt LaFleur was hired in Green Bay in 2019, Green Bay has the best ATS record (34-18, .654).
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Las Vegas has covered eight of the past nine meetings.
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All three Denver games have gone under the total by over 10 points this season.
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Las Vegas is the only team that has yet to win or cover a game this season.
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Las Vegas is 1-7 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season (3-5 outright).
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Josh McDaniels is 13-18 ATS in his career as a head coach. After winning and covering his first six games in Denver in 2009, McDaniels is 7-18 ATS and 5-20 outright. He is 4-7 outright and ATS as a favorite, including 0-2 this season.
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Denver is 0-4 ATS in its past four road games (0-1 ATS this season).
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Tom Brady is 11-1 ATS and 9-3 outright in his career as a home underdog including the playoffs. The only quarterback with a better ATS record as a home underdog in the Super Bowl era is Ken Stabler (9-0-1 ATS), minimum six starts as home underdog including playoffs.
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This will snap Tom Brady’s 22-game streak as a favorite including the playoffs, the second-longest active streak, behind only Patrick Mahomes, who will be a favorite for a 39th straight game. The last time Brady was an underdog was in 2020 against Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Mahomes’ streak is the fourth-longest in the Super Bowl era.
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Patrick Mahomes is 8-2-1 ATS in his career when the line is between +3 and -3.
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Kansas City is 47-26-1 ATS on the road under Andy Reid, the best mark in the NFL since 2013.
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All three Tampa Bay games have gone under the total this season.
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Tom Brady is 2-8 ATS in prime-time games since joining Tampa Bay in 2020.
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Prime-time unders are 7-3 this season and 95-69-3 (.579) over the past four seasons.
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San Francisco has covered all five meetings since 2020 including playoffs.
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Kyle Shanahan is 7-16-2 ATS as a home favorite. However, he is 4-0 ATS in that role in his past four games after losing his previous nine games in that role outright.
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Sean McVay is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog (5-5 outright). Overs are 8-2 in those games.
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All three San Francisco games have gone under the total this season.
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Prime-time unders are 7-3 this season and 95-69-3 (.579) over the past four seasons.
