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Tag: national oceanic and atmospheric administration

  • Hilary moves through Southwest with historic amount of rainfall | CNN

    Hilary moves through Southwest with historic amount of rainfall | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Hilary has triggered deadly flooding, heavy rains and powerful gusts across parts of the southwest and Mexico, transforming streets into raging rivers and forcing some residents to flee, and leaving others in need of rescue, even after the storm weakened to a post-tropical cyclone.

    More rain is expected to fall throughout Monday and Tuesday as officials clean up the aftermath. After hitting Southern California on Sunday as a tropical storm – the state’s first since 1997 – Hilary headed into Nevada as its first-ever recorded tropical storm. As Hilary moves across the southwest, the storm has brought power outages, life-threatening flooding and calls for residents to evacuate or shelter in place.

    Live updates: Hilary brings major flood risk to California

    The storm broke rainfall records across Southern California: Palm Springs got nearly a year’s worth of rain with 4.3 inches in 24 hours, one of its rainiest days ever. Death Valley nearly set a record with 1.68 inches, and the Furnace Creek area, which usually gets about two-tenths of an inch in August, got 0.63 inches.

    And the storm is the rainiest tropical storm system in Nevada’s history, nearly doubling the state’s 116-year-old all-time record, according to preliminary data from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center. Hilary has released 8.7 inches of rain on Lee Canyon, Nevada, smashing the previous record of 4.36 inches in 1906.

    Watch: Massive mudslide sends firefighters scrambling to safety

    More rain is expected to cause dangerous flash, urban and arroyo flooding in some places, including landslides, mudslides and debris flows. Localized flooding is expected into Tuesday morning across northern portions of the Intermountain West.

    In Palm Springs, a section of Interstate 10 is shut down while road crews clear away mud left behind by floodwaters from Tropical Storm Hilary, but other routes in and out of the desert oasis near Joshua Tree National Park are open.

    In addition, many freeway off-ramps are limited because of mud, and CalTrans crews are working to clear those in an effort to ease accessibility.

    Emergency telephone service, which had been down since midmorning, has been restored, the police department said, but an outage continues to affect other areas of the Coachella Valley.

    “We are not used to this level of precipitation, generally – certainly not in the middle of summer,” San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria told CNN on Sunday.

    “With what we’re expecting, it may overwhelm us.”

    Tropical storm Hilary caused a section of the normally-dry Whitewater River to flood parts of a golf course in Cathedral City, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

    Here’s the latest:

    • Heavy rains and some flooding may continue Tuesday morning in parts of the Intermountain West, according to the National Hurricane Center. The rain will cause “mostly localized areas of flash flooding,” the National Weather Service Prediction Center said. Flood watches remain in place across eight Western states.

    • Strong and gusty winds will blow in Nevada, western Utah, southern Idaho and southwest Montana, the hurricane center said. Coastal tropical storm warnings have been discontinued.

    • Some portions of Southern California lost power during the storm but electricity was mostly restored by Monday evening. A total of about 41,000 customers in Los Angeles were without power at one point, Marty Adams, general manager and chief engineer at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, said Monday.

    • People in parts of Southern California should not travel unless they are fleeing an area under flooding or under an evacuation order, the National Weather Service has warned.

    • Flooding, mudslides and downed trees and wires were widely reported across Southern California on Sunday and Monday. At least nine people were rescued Sunday in a San Diego riverbed, San Diego Fire-Rescue said, with water rescues also reported in Ventura County and Palm Springs.

    • In Mexico, where the storm first landed, power has been restored to 80% of customers in the three states affected by Hilary, according to the national power company. “379,850 users have been affected, and electricity supply has been restored to 302,134, equivalent to 80%,” said the Federal Electricity Commission in a statement Monday.

    Maura Taura surveys the damaged cause by a downed tree outside her home.

    To the west, Los Angeles and Ventura counties saw “considerable damage” Sunday night amid reports of dangerous flash flooding, and rock and mudslides, the National Weather Service said, adding up to half an inch of rain could fall per hour.

    Cars were stuck in floodwaters in the Spanish Hills area, the National Weather Service reported.

    Crowley urged residents to take precautions on the roads.

    “A relatively small amount of water can sweep a vehicle away,” she said.

    In Los Angeles, the worst of the storm was over as of Monday morning, according to officials. All weather warnings in the city were canceled. “We are past the brunt of the impact,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Ariel Cohen.

    Schools in San Diego and Los Angeles are set to reopen Tuesday after closing Monday in anticipation of the storm. Officials canceled classes for the more than 121,000 students in the San Diego Unified School District.

    The Los Angeles Unified School District, the second-largest in the nation, also shut down Monday. The district spans about 700 square miles, meaning the impact of the storm varied for its students.

    Schools in the Los Angeles district will reopen on Tuesday, according to superintendent Alberto Carvalho.

    “Our teams have been scouring our schools, and so far, conditions are pretty good,” Carvalho said. A couple dozen schools have lost phone and internet service, and one school has been impacted by a minor mudslide.

    “It would have been reckless for us to make a different decision,” Carvalho said of the decision to close schools Monday.

    “Los Angeles was tested but we came through it and we came through it with minimal impacts, considering what we endured,” said Los Angeles City Council President Paul Krekorian.

    The Nye County School District in Nevada also canceled classes Monday, with plans to reopen Tuesday.

    Cars stranded in roads deluged with mud and water

    Once a hurricane, Hilary weakened as it made landfall Sunday in Mexico – where at least one person died – then crossed into the Golden State. The storm’s center was roughly 10 miles southeast of downtown Los Angeles around 8 p.m. local time Sunday, moving north with weakened 45-mph winds, according to the hurricane center.

    The Los Angeles Fire Department fielded more than 4,000 emergency calls on Sunday and responded to about 1,800 incidents, Chief Kristin Crowley said in a news conference on Monday. The calls included a request for help for five cars stranded in a flooded intersection of Sun Valley. One person was safely rescued and no one was injured in the Sun Valley incident, Crowley said.

    Flood water affected an underground power vault, leading to an outage for about 6,000 customers in the Beverly Grove area, with other outages reported in Hollywood, Hyde Park and Brentwood. The vast majority of city power customers remain unaffected by the storm, according to Los Angeles officials.

    As the storm barreled through, covering roadways with debris and water, roads were blocked across Southern California by Sunday night. A section of Interstate 8 in Imperial County, east of San Diego, was closed Sunday after boulders came loose from an adjoining slope and fell into the road.

    In San Bernardino County, a stretch of State Route 127 covered in floodwaters was closed, while a section of Interstate 15 was shuttered in Barstow because of downed power lines after a lightning strike, authorities said.

    Traffic is slowed as water and mud from Tropical Storm Hilary covers part of Interstate 10, between Indio and Palm Springs, California, on Monday.

    Crews across the region Sunday evening rescued people caught in the storm, including at least nine in a riverbed area in San Diego. “Crews are still looking for more people who may need help. #riverrescue,” San Diego Fire-Rescue said.

    And Ventura County firefighters searched the Santa Clara River for people trapped in the waters on Sunday night, videos show.

    The storm led to other disruptions across Southern California, with many parks, beaches and other locations closed as officials called on residents to stay indoors.

    And Hilary continued to cause damage as it moved into Nevada. In Mt. Charleston, Nevada, the storm brought significant flooding on Monday morning, washing out the roadways. Residents are sheltering in place, the power is shut off, and the Nevada National Guard is on its way to assist, according to a Facebook post from Clark County.

    West of Las Vegas, rushing water is flowing like a river down Echo Road, leaving vehicles stranded from Mary Jane Trailheads and Trail Canyon, according to the U.S. Forest Service. Emergency crews are evaluating and ask for people to stay out of the area, the service said.

    California had been preparing for difficult conditions, positioning first responders across Southern California to brace for water rescues in flood-prone areas like wildfire burn scars and deserts amid fears areas unaccustomed to rain could suddenly receive a year’s worth or more, triggering flash floods and landslides.

    Rainfall totals have been significant:

    Daily and monthly rainfall records were broken Sunday, with 1.53 inches falling in downtown Los Angeles, 1.56 inches in Long Beach and 2.95 inches in Palmdale, according to the weather service.

    At least three swift water rescues were conducted in Palm Springs, police department Lt. Gustavo Araiza told CNN.

    In Cathedral City, a desert community roughly a 110-mile drive east of Los Angeles, at least 14 people were rescued from a senior boarding care facility Monday afternoon after “a blockade” of mud trapped them inside, city spokesperson Ryan Hunt said.

    All of the people rescued are doing well, Hunt said.

    The fire department had to borrow a dozer truck from a recycling center so they could carry out the rescue, Hunt said. The department had firefighters sit in the dozer and then had those being rescued sit on top to be brought out of the structure, he added.

    Despite the “unorthodox method,” everyone stayed calm, he said.

    A motorist removes belongings from his vehicle after becoming stuck in a flooded street in Palm Desert, California, on Sunday.

    Santa Clarita, about 30 miles north of Los Angeles, experienced steady rain for about 10 hours, with the storm dropping well over four inches of rain on the valley. Parts of Sand Canyon Road could be seen falling into rushing water.

    ATTN DRIVERS: State Route 127 is now closed between Baker Blvd. in Baker (San Bernardino County) and Tecopa Hot Springs Road (Inyo County) due to flooding. @Caltrans9 maintenance crews are on scene. pic.twitter.com/fvcI9Vhss3

    — Caltrans District 9 (@Caltrans9) August 21, 2023

    As the storm continues to affect the West, officials with Oregon’s emergency management are bracing for possible flooding across portions of the state.

    “At this point, we’re concerned about the substantial rainfall and the potential for fast-moving water and flooding. Flood watches have been issued for areas of Central and Eastern Oregon,” Oregon Department of Emergency Management spokesperson Chris Crabb told CNN Monday afternoon.

    “We have reports of minor flooding currently and communities using sandbags to mitigate the impacts, but there have been no requests for state support at this point,” Crabb went on.

    According to Crabb, the office is working with county and tribal partners.

    Portions of Oregon are under a flood watch through Tuesday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service.

    “The remnants of Hurricane Hilary will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain to portions of northeastern Oregon through Tuesday,” the weather service said in a forecast message.

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    August 21, 2023
  • Has California ever had a hurricane? One expert says tropical storm threat from Hilary is

    Has California ever had a hurricane? One expert says tropical storm threat from Hilary is

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    Hurricane Hilary is expected to hit Southern California as a tropical storm, with a punch that could include flash flooding and significant amounts of rain, according to the National Hurricane Center. 

    A tropical storm watch for much of Southern California was issued Friday morning. The National Weather Service’s San Diego outpost said this was the first time such an advisory had ever been issued for the region. 

    “It is rare — indeed nearly unprecedented in the modern record — to have a tropical system like this move through Southern California,” Greg Postel, a hurricane and storm specialist at the Weather Channel, told CBS News.

    How rare is a hurricane on the West Coast? 

    When was the last time a tropical storm hit Southern California?

    The last time a tropical storm made landfall in California was 84 years ago — before there was a system of naming storms.

    The 1939 storm, called El Cordonazo, became the first and only tropical storm to make landfall in the state in the 20th century, according to the National Weather Service. NWS says the storm, which was at one point a hurricane, originated off the southern coast of Central America before moving north and eventually coming ashore at San Pedro, California. 

    Resulting floods from the storm killed at least 45 people across the Southern California region and caused $2 million in damage to structures and crops, the weather service reports. Another 48 people were also killed at sea. Cities across the Southern California region experienced torrential rains because of the tropical storm — Los Angeles, for example, saw 5.24″ in just 24 hours.

    “Californians were generally unprepared and were alerted to their vulnerability to tropical storms,” NWS said of the storm in its report about significant weather events in Southern California. The weather bureau established a forecast office in Southern California in 1940 after the disaster. 

    Has California ever had a hurricane?

    Other powerful storms have hit Southern California, including a hurricane in 1858 that hit San Diego with 75 mph winds — what would now be considered a Category 1. The hurricane, which caused extensive wind damage, is considered the only actual hurricane to hit the West Coast, according to National Weather Service.

    In 1997, NWS says Hurricane Linda in the Pacific became the strongest storm recorded in the region, with 180 mph winds and 218 mph gusts. However, it didn’t make landfall in California, but as a nearby tropical storm it did cause heavy rain and thunderstorms in the area. 

    That hurricane occurred during an El Niño, which is a weather pattern that is caused when warmer water in the Pacific Ocean effects the jet stream, making it move south. This phenomenon can bring heavy rainfall and flooding to California and drier and warmer weather to the northern U.S. and Canada. The pattern also affects the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southwest, bringing wetter weather than usual.

    Meteorologists say El Niño has made a return this spring and was expected to strengthen.

    Major West Coast storms this year

    California started 2023 with a barrage of storms up and down its coast. A New Year’s Eve storm brought record rainfall and landslides to Northern California. In the weeks that followed, a series of storms caused by atmospheric rivers hit the sate.

    Atmospheric rivers are long regions in the atmosphere that transport water and can cause significant flooding. About eight atmospheric rivers hit the state between Dec. 26 and Jan. 14, Gov. Gavin Newson said at the time. Many of the storms caused severe flooding, risks of mudslides and evacuations. 

    The severe weather continued into March and grew more intense when winter storms buried areas of the state — like Yosemite National Park — in record-breaking snowfall. 

    By May, it was estimated the storms had swamped 150,000 acres in California’s Central Valley, destroying crops in the region responsible for producing a quarter of the nation’s food, according to numbers from Kings County officials.

    Where and when will Hurricane Hilary make landfall?

    On Friday morning, Hilary was off the coast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, according to the Weather Channel. Hilary grew from a tropical storm to a Category 3 on Wednesday, and then a Category 4 on Thursday. It was expected to continue its path to Southern California and weaken back to a tropical storm — with the remnants still expected to bring flash flooding and gusty winds.

    The Los Angeles Basin and the desert Southwest are expected to feel its impact over the weekend, with heavy rainfall in the area starting Friday and “peaking on Sunday and Monday,” according to the National Hurricane Center.. Hilary will continue to drench parts of California early next week while weakening. 

    How can Californians prepare for Hilary?

    According to the National Weather Service, all people living along the coast are at risk of being affected by a hurricane or a tropical storm brewing in their region. The best thing those residents can do is prepare ahead of time.

    That preparation includes developing an evacuation and communication plan, stocking up on disaster supplies, preparing your home by cutting down vulnerable trees, and staying up to date on weather forecasts and warnings. Homeowners may want to consider installing a generator and storm shutters, and check your home’s insurance status.

    Read more here for expert advice on how to prepare for a storm.

    Trending News

    Simrin Singh

    Simrin Singh is a social media producer and trending content writer for CBS News.

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    August 18, 2023
  • Help rushes in to Perryton, Texas, after tornado rips through community | CNN

    Help rushes in to Perryton, Texas, after tornado rips through community | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    The state of Texas as well as cities and counties surrounding the Panhandle town of Perryton are sending aid after a tornado ripped through the area Thursday afternoon.

    The National Weather Service in Amarillo confirmed that a tornado struck the town. Images of extensive damage have been circulating on social media.

    Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s office and the state’s Division of Emergency Management are mobilizing resources, State Rep. Four Price of District 87 said in a Facebook post.

    “TDEM is moving everything that way. Search and Rescue, medical, etc.,” Price said. Multiple structures are damaged and “the state is engaging additional medical help to triage,” according to Price.

    “This is a serious situation. Again, please lift that community up in prayer,” he added.

    Beaver County, Oklahoma, Emergency Manager Keith Shadden told CNN the county has sent fire, law enforcement and EMS units across the state border to help. He said that they intend to send a second wave to assist but are waiting for the weather to clear in the county.

    The city of Stinnett, Texas, about 56 miles from Perryton, is sending officers and EMS crews, and the Hutchinson County Sheriff’s Office posted on Facebook that they are also assisting with rescue and emergency operations following the “devastating tornado.”

    The Borger Police Department, Booker Fire Department and officials with the City of Fritch are all responding to Perryton to assist with tornado damage.

    CNN has reached out to local officials for more information.

    Meteorologists had warned that severe weather capable of producing wind gusts up to 90 mph, hail up to 5 inches in diameter and tornadoes was expected Thursday – the sixth day in a row for portions of the South and Plains.

    The tornado hit Perryton Thursday afternoon.

    The latest round of storms comes on the heels of more than 300 storm reports Wednesday, continuing a long streak of active weather.

    The area under threat Thursday covers a large swath from Colorado to South Carolina, with the greatest potential across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas.

    The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Level 4 of 5 moderate risk of severe weather for the area, which includes Oklahoma City and Norman, Oklahoma.

    Two tornado watches have been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for western and central Oklahoma and portions of northwestern, northern and central Texas. The watches include the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and Oklahoma City and both are in effect until 10 p.m. CT.

    “Intense supercell development is expected this afternoon from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, and storms will spread eastward through late evening,” the SPC said. “The initial, more discrete supercells will be capable of producing giant hail (4-5 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes. Upscale growth into a cluster or two is possible this evening, with an increasing threat for intense outflow winds of 80-90 mph.”

    Extremely large hail is another threat.

    “Be prepared for hail up to the size of baseballs and winds up to 80 mph with the stronger storms, as well as a medium risk for tornadoes,” warned the National Weather Service office in Norman. “The severe window will start in western Oklahoma between 3pm and 5pm and continue until storms exit the southeastern parts of the forecast area by 3am.”

    ⚠️ SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ⚠️

    Ingredients will be in place for large hail up to baseball size, wind gusts near or exceeding 80 mph, and the potential for a few tornadoes. Please stay weather aware later today! #okwx #texomawx #txwx pic.twitter.com/0ys2c4aNcJ

    — NWS Norman (@NWSNorman) June 15, 2023

    Know the difference between a tornado watch vs tornado warning

    Areas around the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex are under a Level 3 of 5 enhanced risk of severe weather.

    “The areas most susceptible to another round of large hail and possibly some damaging winds will be eastern North TX down into far eastern Central TX east of I-45 could get into the mix as well,” the weather service office in Dallas said.

    A much broader area of severe weather extends from western Kansas, south to central Texas and east to the Florida Panhandle. The Level 2 of 5 slight risk of severe weather covers more than 10 million people and includes places like Tulsa, Oklahoma; Shreveport, Louisiana; and Tallahassee, Florida.

    Lastly, a widespread area of a Level 1 of 5 marginal risk of severe weather covers from eastern Colorado to South Carolina.

    While it is not in the main threat area, people should not let their guard down because of the potential for damaging winds and very large hail. An isolated tornado could spin up as well.

    A tornado is seen on the ground June 14, 2023, in Blakely, Georgia.

    In addition to the severe weather threat, the same areas should also monitor the potential for flooding. With days of rain over the same areas, the ground is becoming quite saturated.

    “A continued threat of heavy rain through the day with potential for several inches to fall within bands of training convection,” is being warned by the weather service office in Mobile, Alabama.

    The multiday severe threat will continue Friday and through the weekend, as storms continue to develop each day along a stalled frontal boundary draped across the South.

    Wind and storm damage in Cass County, Texas.

    Wednesday’s severe threat brought more than 300 storm reports across the South and Plains.

    There were at least 100 hail reports and more than 200 wind reports, which knocked out power to more than 100,000 homes.

    Baseball to tennis ball-sized hail was reported in Alabama and hail greater than 5 inches was reported in Mississippi.

    Of the 10 tornado reports, five were reported in Georgia, two in Texas and three in Alabama.

    weather extreme heat

    Not only will millions face severe weather, but more than 30 million people are also under heat alerts, including large portions of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Florida.

    Most will see temperatures running at least 10-15 degrees above normal, with the potential for nearly 100 high temperature records to break during the next week.

    Texas is expected to get hit exceptionally hard, with heat indices reaching as high as 120 degrees.

    Heat indices are the “feels like” temperature, when you factor in the humidity.

    The Texas power grid could reach a record high for usage next week, as temperatures stay in the triple digits for at least the next week.

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    June 15, 2023
  • The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. Here’s what experts say to expect.

    The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. Here’s what experts say to expect.

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    The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be “near normal” with at least 12 named storms, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted.

    NOAA said ahead of the season’s start it expects 12 to 17 named storms and five to nine hurricanes this year, with one to four major hurricanes.

    “It’s absolutely crucial that all Americans living in potential paths of these storms, even well inland of the coasts, follow NOAA’s guidance for preparation and determine your risk, develop an evacuation plan, and assemble the disaster supplies that you may need,” Deputy Commerce Secretary Don Graves said during a news conference last week.

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. When a tropical depression reaches maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph, it is considered a tropical storm and gets a name. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its sustained winds reach at least 74 mph, while major hurricanes — Category 3, 4 or 5 — are even more intense. 

    Climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, has resulted in warming ocean temperatures and other atmospheric conditions that scientists say are making hurricanes more intense.

    NOAA officials said that the effects of climate change could mean that storms yield more precipitation and slightly stronger winds than ever before, citing Hurricane Harvey, which dropped a record 5 feet of water on Texas in 2017.

    The 2022 hurricane season produced 14 named storms, including eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes. According to NOAA, an average hurricane season consists of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

    Even though the number of storms last year was about average, the intensity of those systems was extremely destructive. Just one storm, Hurricane Ian, caused 150 deaths and more than $112 billion in damage after it made landfall as a Category 4 in southwest Florida on Sept. 28. It was the costliest hurricane in Florida history and the third-costliest in U.S. history.

    Hurricane Ian moves toward Florida on September 28, 2022, in the Gulf of Mexico in this NOAA handout satellite image.
    Hurricane Ian moves toward Florida on September 28, 2022, in the Gulf of Mexico in this NOAA handout satellite image.

    NOAA via Getty Images


    Researchers said that the emergence of an El Niño this summer could potentially make for a weaker hurricane season. El Niño and La Niña are naturally occurring climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather forecasts globally. The emerging El Niño means that waters off the West Coast will be warmer and storm activity in the Pacific more active, while Atlantic hurricane activity may be weakened. However, water temperatures in the Atlantic are currently above average, which could counteract an El Niño.

    Officials touted upgrades to NOAA operations and forecasting that they hope will save lives this hurricane season. This year, NOAA will employ two new enhancements to better forecast the track and intensity of hurricanes and storm surge.

    The National Weather Service provides resources for hurricane preparation and real-time updates about active weather systems at www.hurricanes.gov.

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    Cara Korte

    CBS News reporter covering climate change and energy.

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    June 1, 2023
  • El Niño watch issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

    El Niño watch issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

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    El Niño, a recurring climate pattern that periodically disrupts entire ecosystems of marine life and can influence weather events in the United States and across the globe, will “likely develop” again this summer, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on Thursday.

    The agency’s climate prediction center had earlier issued an El Niño Watch as part of its latest weather outlook assessment for April 2023, which forecasted the upcoming shift in ENSO, the acronym scientists use to describe an alternating system of contrasting climate phenomena called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. This kind of advisory is issued when weather conditions favor the development of El Niño within the next six months, according to NOAA. 

    Weather conditions are currently considered neutral, as they have been since a particularly lengthy term of La Niña — El Niño’s converse, which is often associated with worsening drought and more severe hurricanes — ended at the beginning of March. At the time, climate scientists said there was an estimated 60% chance that El Niño would emerge by the fall season.

    Time to watch for El Nino! 👀 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino watch in today’s monthly update.

    See more at: https://t.co/znXWQK8Rzg pic.twitter.com/nbfHeUq059

    — National Weather Service (@NWS) April 13, 2023

    Their estimate has changed slightly since then, with officials at the climate prediction center suggesting in their latest outlook that there is now about a 62% chance El Niño will develop sometime between May and July. Weighing various environmental factors seen over the last month, like above-average sea surface temperatures and generally low-level winds on average across the Pacific Ocean, scientists suggested a climate transition, from neutral into El Niño, will begin to occur in June through August and last into winter. 

    ENSO is defined by sea surface temperatures and precipitation levels across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that depart from the neutral norm, and those departures can swing in either direction depending on whether El Niño or La Niña is active. 

    El Niño is considered the cycle’s “warm phase,” according to NOAA, when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise and there is more precipitation. 

    elnino.jpg
    El Niño causes the Pacific jet stream to move south and spread further east. During winter, this leads to wetter conditions than usual in the Southern U.S. and warmer and drier conditions in the North.

    NOAA


    In the U.S., this phase of the climate cycle can significantly affect weather, and is known to bring wetter conditions to areas along the Gulf Coast and in the Southeast, causing increased and sometimes disastrous flooding. Northern parts of the U.S. as well as Canada typically see warmer and dryer weather than usual during El Niño.

    The warmer phase of ENSO can also have serious consequences for marine life off the Pacific coast, since the shift in ocean temperatures result in fewer phytoplankton in that area, NOAA said. This consequence has a domino effect on creatures up the food chain that rely on what is otherwise nutrient-rich water to survive. Warmer Pacific temperatures can also bring different species of fish, like yellowtail and albacore tuna, to places where the water is usually too cold.

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    April 13, 2023
  • Methane big part of ‘alarming’ rise in planet-warming gases

    Methane big part of ‘alarming’ rise in planet-warming gases

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    Methane in the atmosphere had its fourth-highest annual increase in 2022, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported, part of an overall rise in planet-warming greenhouse gases that the agency called “alarming.”

    Though carbon dioxide typically gets more attention for its role in climate change, scientists are particularly concerned about methane because it traps much more heat — about 87 times more than carbon dioxide on a 20-year timescale.

    Methane, a gas emitted from sources including landfills, oil and natural gas systems and livestock, has increased particularly quickly since 2020. Scientists say it shows no sign of slowing despite urgent calls from scientists and policymakers who say time is running out to meet warming limits in the Paris Agreement and avoid the most destructive impacts of climate change.

    “The observations collected by NOAA scientists in 2022 show that greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at an alarming pace and will persist in the atmosphere for thousands of years,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement accompanying the report. “The time is now to address greenhouse gas pollution and to lower human-caused emissions as we continue to build toward a climate-ready nation.”

    Methane rose by 14 parts per billion to 1,911.9 ppb in 2022. It rose slightly faster in 2020 (15.20 ppb) and 2021 (17.75 ppb).

    Methane gas leaks from wells and natural gas lines and wafts from manure ponds, decomposing landfills, and directly from livestock.

    “Ruminant animal herds like goats, sheep, and cows in particular are one of the largest human-driven sources of methane,” said Stephen Porder, a professor of ecology and assistant provost for sustainability at Brown University.

    Scientists continue to discover that methane emissions from both the fossil fuels industry and the environment are largely underestimated.

    “We are confident that over half of the methane emissions are coming from human activities like oil and gas extraction, agriculture, waste management, and landfills,” said Benjamin Poulter, NASA research scientist.

    The exact amounts of methane that have come from human activity versus natural environments over the past few years is not currently known, but scientists say that humans have little control over ecosystems that start emitting more methane due to warming.

    “If this rapid rise is wetlands and natural systems responding to climate change, then that’s very frightening because we can’t do much to stop it,” said Drew Shindell, Duke University professor and former climate scientist at NASA. “If methane leaks from the fossil fuels sector, then we can make regulations. But we can’t make regulations on what swamps do.”

    Scientists are also investigating how the stubborn three-year La Nina pattern could have influenced methane emissions due to higher levels of rainfall in tropical wetlands.

    Shindell said methane emissions caused by humans account for about 26% of the warming caused by human activities.

    Porder said transitioning away from fossil fuels and reducing the number of ruminant animals being raised are “sure-fire ways to reduce methane in the atmosphere and limit warming.”

    The International Energy Agency estimates that 70% of 2022’s methane emissions could be reduced with existing technology.

    The NOAA report also said carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide saw significant growth in 2022.

    Carbon dioxide levels rose to to 417.06 ppm in 2022 and is now 50% higher than pre-industrial levels. Nitrous oxide, which NOAA stated is the third-most significant greenhouse gas emitted by humans, rose to 335.7 ppb, largely due to fertilizers and manure from the expanding agriculture sector.

    ___

    Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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    April 7, 2023
  • Severe weather threat ramps up as western storm pushes east | CNN

    Severe weather threat ramps up as western storm pushes east | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    The same storm system that brought so much rain and snow to the western US is moving east and intensifying, making for a potential severe weather outbreak that could impact nearly 70 million people from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday.

    “A concerning scenario appears to be developing,” warned the Storm Prediction Center. “Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected.”

    This weather pattern will be similar to the ones we have seen repeatedly over the last few months, when an atmospheric river event or storm system impacting the West intensifies as it moves eastward, resulting in a severe weather outbreak across the midsection of the country.

    There is a small chance of storms Thursday across the Plains, including in Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Sioux Falls and Topeka. We could also see gusty winds, hail and the possibility of an isolated tornado.

    However, the severe threat ramps up on Friday.

    A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast Friday, March 31. The most intense storms, capable of damaging gusts , a few tornadoes (some strong & long-tracked), & large hail are expected from the Mid-MS Valley to the Mid-South. More details: https://t.co/QMmU4tBZDt. pic.twitter.com/m3SGTxSF8S

    — NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) March 30, 2023

    The storm center has placed a Level 4 out of 5 “moderate risk” of severe weather for nearly 4 million people in two separate areas along the Mississippi River: For portions of northeastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee, including Memphis, and for portions of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois.

    Places such as Cedar Rapids, Davenport and Iowa City are included in the severe weather threat.

    Track the storms here

    “Things are still looking quite volatile in our region for Friday,” the National Weather Service office in Quad Cities, Iowa, said. “The storm motions are progged to be over 50 mph, given the strong wind fields, so people should plan ahead for sheltering in case severe weather strikes, as these storms will be moving quickly!”

    SPC has upgraded much of the area to a Moderate (level 4 out of 5) risk for severe storms for Friday from 2 to 8 PM. Damaging winds to 70 MPH, tornadoes, and large hail will all be possible. The storms will be moving at 50+ MPH, so you will have little time to seek shelter! pic.twitter.com/cv50egSMYt

    — NWS Quad Cities (@NWSQuadCities) March 30, 2023

    A wider area that stretches from northern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin down to central Mississippi and southern Arkansas is under a Level 3 out of 5 “enhanced risk” of severe weather.

    This threat affects more than 14 million people in places such as Nashville, St. Louis, Des Moines and Little Rock.

    “Initially there could be a small tornado threat with storms as they enter our western counties, but a line of storms with a straight-line damaging wind threat will ultimately be the main concern,” the National Weather Service office in Nashville explained.

    Winds could gust as high as 70 mph and large hail is possible.

    Many of these storms will continue into the overnight hours, creating an even more dangerous scenario because people are asleep.

    How to be safe in severe weather

    This severe weather event comes one week after a deadly tornado outbreak killed dozens of people, many of them in Mississippi.

    Hear how tornado lifted couple up in the air while sitting in their bathtub

    “For this week our highest chance of severe weather is a little north of where it was last week,” National Weather Service meteorologist Amber Schlessiger told CNN. Schlessiger says that the region hit hard one week ago must be prepared. “People are going to be asleep and not put their alarms on until the next morning, so they need to have a way to be woken up.”

    There is also an existing threat of severe weather for more than 31 million people from southern Minnesota and Wisconsin down to portions of East Texas, northern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

    Gusty winds, large hail and the possibility of isolated tornadoes are all possible as the fast-moving storms track eastward.

    Along with the severe threat, heavy rainfall could lead to flooding. The prediction center has highlighted an area that stretches from eastern Oklahoma to Kentucky for a slight risk of excessive rainfall.

    “Hourly rates of 1-2 (inches) +/hr are possible (with these hourly rates largely driving the flash flood threat, as the bulk of the forecast precipitation is expected over a period of 3-6 hours,” the prediction center explained.

    Once the storms form, we could see them begin to “train” – meaning they roll over the same areas for long periods of time. This will be the main driver for potential flash flooding.

    Heavy snow will spread across much of the Upper Midwest, adding to their already banner winter season.

    “Winter weather-related advisories are in effect from South Dakota east into Minnesota and Wisconsin for the potential of snow totals generally between 3-6 (inches), with locally heavier totals of 10 (inches) + possible,” the prediction center said.

    Along with heavy snow, winds gusts as high as 50 mph could lead to whiteout conditions.

    “Gusty winds behind the front upwards of 50 mph will lead to areas of blowing snow and blizzard conditions, making travel treacherous to impossible.”

    Temperatures will remain unseasonably cold with highs on Thursday and Friday only making it into the 20s and 30s.

    Lows at night will drop into the single digits Saturday morning.

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    March 30, 2023
  • Another atmospheric river is coming for California, where neighborhoods are still flooded and hundreds of evacuated residents are in shelters | CNN

    Another atmospheric river is coming for California, where neighborhoods are still flooded and hundreds of evacuated residents are in shelters | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Still reeling from storms that inundated neighborhoods, forced rescues and damaged roads, storm-battered California is bracing for another atmospheric river that threatens even more flooding Monday.

    More than 17 million people remained under flood watches across California and Nevada early Monday morning as the storm made its menacing approach – the 11th atmospheric river to hit the West this winter season.

    The new storm, arriving on the heels of another atmospheric river, could exacerbate the flooding and damage in some areas. Already, those in the central and northern parts of California are crowding into shelters and contending with flooded neighborhoods, mudslides, dangerous rushing rivers, collapsed bridges and unusable roads.

    At least two people have died as a result of the storms, officials said.

    This atmospheric river event will first bring rain and snow to much of Oregon and Washington before sinking south into California Monday. Rainfall totals up to 8 inches are possible across parts of northern and central California.

    The approaching atmospheric river is already complicating efforts to repair a levee breach that happened around midnight Friday on the swollen Pajaro River in Monterey County, one of the hardest hit areas in the state.

    Water rushed uncontrollably through the more than 120-foot break and into nearby Pajaro, forcing thousands to flee as crews performed high-water rescues in the flooded area.

    There have already been close to 200 rescues due to flooding in the area, Monterey Sheriff Tina Nieto said.

    Many Pajaro residents are farm workers who may not only lose property, but also the ability to earn a living for some time if the continued flooding impacts agriculture, said Luis Alejo, chair of the Monterey County board of supervisors.

    “These are the folks who can least afford this type of hardship,” he said.

    Mandatory Evacuation orders issued for the Community of #Pajaro due to a #LeveeBreak. Please heed evac warnings/orders. Pajaro River levee broke early this morning resulting in active flooding. #Evacuate if told. #TurnAroundDontDrown @Cal_OES @CaltransHQ @CAgovernor pic.twitter.com/tDttiTcaC0

    — California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (@Cal_OES) March 11, 2023

    With more rain on the way, Monterey County officials are now looking into expanding evacuation orders in and around the Pajaro River, where more than 5,000 residents already have been impacted by evacuation warnings and orders.

    More than 480 people are at 30 shelters across 12 counties, the majority in hard-hit Santa Cruz County, just north of the Monterey area, according to a Sunday update from the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services.

    President Joe Biden has approved a state of emergency declaration requested by Gov. Gavin Newsom. The move frees funds for the millions of residents who have been hit with severe weather since the beginning of the year.

    Newsom on Sunday expanded the declaration to include six additional counties, including Calaveras, Del Norte, Glenn, Kings, San Benito and San Joaquin.

    Images from throughout the state show neighborhoods that look like lakes from the severe rainfall that pummeled California over the past few days and sent rivers and creeks overflowing.

    The Salinas River is already rising as it moves through the Salinas Valley and Monterey County officials warn it will feel the impacts of our next atmospheric river storm event.”

    California Highway Patrol used a helicopter to help rescue someone who was trapped in the Salinas River in King City, the agency said in a Facebook post.

    “The rising river washed a driver and his car away but the driver was able to escape the vehicle and get to an island in the middle of the flooded Salinas River,” the post said.

    Similar rescues have played out throughout the state, with California National Guard troops also responding with highwater vehicles to help people stuck in floodwaters.

    In parts of Kern County – where several evacuation orders remain – the flooding was so bad that one resident described seeing a shed, a hot tub, and several full-size trees with their root balls floating down the Kern River in Kernville.

    “The river is now surrounding some RVs and mobile homes. It’s really unbelievable,” said Danny Housh, who has been working in Kernville for 17 years and said he’s never seen anything like this before.

    To the north, as Friday’s heavy rains pummeled Santa Cruz County, about 700 residents in Soquel got trapped after a pipe failure collapsed the only road linking the community to the rest of the region, said Steve Wiesner, the county’s assistant public works director.

    “We are now an island,” resident Molly Watson told CNN.

    Another hard hit area was Tulare County, where video from Springville showed devastating damage after Friday’s severe flooding.

    “It’s quite heartbreaking,” Hatti Shepard told CNN. “Many hard-working people displaced with losses of home and possessions.”

    Mammoth Lakes Fire Department firefighters respond to a propane heater leak and small fire at a shuttered restaurant surrounded by snowbanks on March 12, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California.

    The recent atmospheric rivers are the latest to inundate the state after a barrage of similar storms in December and January also resulted in deadly flooding and widespread damage.

    Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of moisture that can carry saturated air thousands of miles like a fire hose.

    This new wave of storms is bearing down on areas already buried by heavy snowfall from the past two weeks. Melting snowpack will also play a role in prolonging flooding over the upcoming days, forecasters say.

    Despite uncertainty on the timing of this system, forecasters know it’ll bring yet another round of heavy precipitation, as well as heavy snowfall for the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

    The National Weather Service’s prediction center issued a Level 3 out of 4 risk for excessive rain across northern California on Monday and across portions of the central California coast and Sierra Nevada on Tuesday.

    The rain is expected to start intensifying late Monday and the heavy rainfall, combined with the snowmelt, is forecast to fuel more flooding from Tuesday into Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.

    The National Weather Service warned of “considerable flooding impacts” below 5000-foot elevations across large portions of central California into Tuesday.

    “In addition, heavy rain and snowmelt may lead to renewed (more widespread) flooding from Monday to Tuesday, particularly in low elevations and shallow and warming snowpack areas,” the National Weather Service said.

    Creeks and streams, already overflowing, are expected to continue to be vulnerable to flooding from additional rain and snowmelt.

    In Southern California, peak rain rates of up to an inch per hour are expected over the mountains and foothills.

    The weather service office in Los Angeles said residents could expect shallow mud and debris flows in recent burn areas, downed trees and powerlines and travel delays due to flooded road and mudslides.

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    March 12, 2023
  • Rain rates in California during newest storm may reach 1 inch per hour | CNN

    Rain rates in California during newest storm may reach 1 inch per hour | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Millions of Californians already hammered by ferocious snowfall were hit Thursday by a new storm, with torrential rain threatening to cause dangerous flooding and the Weather Prediction Center increasing its excessive rainfall outlook for parts of the state to a level 4 of 4.

    “If you have feet of snow on your roof, all of a sudden that’s going to get very, very heavy. That snow is going to absorb the rainfall,” CNN Meteorologist Chad Myers warned Thursday.

    “And then in the higher elevations, it will wash away some of that snowfall. So, rain on snow will begin to fill up parts of the San Joaquin Valley.”

    About 16.7 million people are under flood watches in California and slices of Nevada. Hourly rainfall rates will steadily increase in intensity across California from Thursday overnight through Friday morning, potentially reaching 1 inch per hour.

    The level 4 excessive rainfall warning is targeted to two sections in central California – the coast from Salinas southward to San Luis Obispo and areas in the foothills of the Sierras near Fresno – Thursday overnight into Friday. The last time the Bay Area and Central Coast were in “high risk” was in 2010, the National Weather Service office in San Francisco said.

    Much of the state is under some risk of excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday.

    “An atmospheric river will bring anomalous moisture to California Thursday and Friday. The combination of heavy precipitation and rapid snow melt below 5,000 feet will result in flooding,” the prediction center said Wednesday, adding that “numerous” floods are likely for millions.

    The atmospheric river is easily visible on satellite, extending out just south of Hawaii. Rain will increase as the main moisture plume moves south into our area. #atmosphericriver #socal #carain #satellite pic.twitter.com/6llbpU3AZB

    — NWS Los Angeles (@NWSLosAngeles) March 10, 2023

    The most vulnerable areas for flooding from rain and snowmelt are creeks and streams in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, the prediction center said.

    Higher elevations will see heavy, wet snow. “This will lead to difficult travel, and combined with an already deep snowpack, may lead to increasing impacts from the depth and weight of the snow,” the prediction center said.

    The bleak forecast spurred officials across central and Northern California to urge residents to prepare, with residents in one area advised to stock up on essentials for two weeks. Others were asked to use sandbags to protect their properties and clear their waterways to lessen any flooding impacts.

    “We are asking people to watch their news, stay informed, have a full tank of gas in case they need to evacuate, get snow off of their roof if they can, if it’s safe,” Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis told CNN on Thursday. “And just be very vigilant and prepared, because we are in the era of extreme weather, and that’s what we are seeing this week.”

    Here’s what the storm could bring:

    • Heavy rainfall: The National Weather Service in San Francisco forecasts rainfall totals through Sunday morning will be from 1.5-3 inches for most urban areas with 3-6 inches in some hilly areas. As many as 8 inches could fall on the Santa Cruz Mountains and locally up to 12 inches over some peaks and higher terrain of the Santa Lucia Mountains. The National Weather Service in Los Angeles is forecasting 2-4 inches across Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, with some areas in the latter receiving as many as 10 inches through late Friday night. The Weather Prediction Center said: “The abnormally warm and wet conditions moving in are expected to cause rapid snowmelt.”

    • Ferocious winds: More than 15 million people across central and Northern California, northern Nevada and southwestern Idaho are under high wind alerts. Wind gusts could reach up to 55 mph across lower elevations and up to 70 mph across peaks and mountains. Strong winds could knock down power lines and trees – exacerbating thousands of existing power outages from previous storms that dumped heavy snow, particularly in higher elevations.

    • More intense snow: Parts of the Sierra Nevada above 8,000 feet could get hit with 8 feet of snow. And some higher elevations across southern Oregon and the Rocky Mountains in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming could get pounded by 2 feet of snowfall between Thursday and Friday.

    Already, 34 of California’s 58 counties are under a state of emergency issued by the governor’s office due to previous storms and this week’s severe weather. The state activated its flood operations center Thursday morning.

    The forecast also led some ski resorts to announce closings. Kirkwood Mountain Resort said it would not open Friday, as did the Northstar California resort and the Heavenly resort in South Lake Tahoe, on Nevada’s border with California.

    Meanwhile, the Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center issued a backcountry avalanche warning for sections of Mono County, according to the National Weather Service in Reno, Nevada.

    Many of the areas preparing for Thursday’s storm have not had a chance to recover from the multiple rounds of fierce snow that buried some neighborhoods and made roads inaccessible as residents ran low on essential supplies.

    In hard-hit San Bernardino County, one of the recent storms claimed the life of a resident in a car crash, the sheriff’s department told CNN on Wednesday.

    video thumbnail california snowbank 81year-old

    Grandson reveals 81-year-old’s reaction after surviving in snowbank for a week

    As the storm hits central California, some urban flooding along with flooding from the smaller creeks and streams is likely. Eventually, more roads are expected to flood as the main rivers rise, said Katrina Hand, a meteorologist at the weather service’s Sacramento office.

    San Francisco officials urged small businesses to clear storm drains, stock up on inventory, use sandbags and ensure equipment is properly stored. They also suggested employers consider adjusting their work schedules for workers’ safety.

    In Merced, crews tried to clear storm drains and fortify creek banks ahead of the storm.

    City officials said flooding from previous, deadly rounds of atmospheric rivers that battered much of the state in January has made the city’s water ways unsafe.

    Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of moisture in the atmosphere that carry warm air and water vapor from the tropics.

    “The city urges all residents to avoid these waterways and walking paths,” Merced officials said. “Because of ground saturation and erosion from prior storms, expect to see more debris in creek flows.”

    In San Luis Obispo, city officials on Wednesday said residents should be informed on flood insurance policies and be prepared to protect their homes. On Thursday, they issued an evacuation order for residents south of the Arroyo Grande Creek Levee.

    Evacuation warnings were also issued for residents in low-lying areas of Santa Cruz County and for people in Tulare County.

    In the Big Sur area, officials urged residents to have enough food and other essentials for at least two weeks. The Big Sur area, a roughly 90-mile stretch of California’s central coast, is one of the area’s renowned tourist attractions with rugged cliffs, mountains and hidden beaches along the Pacific Coast Highway.

    In Kern County, home to Bakersfield, fire officials urged residents to create emergency kits and to be aware of escape routes and safe areas to seek shelter if needed. Officials also encouraged the use of sandbags to protect properties.

    And in Sacramento, city officials said they intend to open overnight warming centers beginning Friday in preparation for the expected heavy rainfall and low temperatures.

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    March 9, 2023
  • Man who calls himself

    Man who calls himself

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    A man from Maui, Hawaii, who refers to himself as Dolphin Dave, is accused of harassing humpback whales and dolphins in Hawaii. 

    This weekend, the Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) received an influx of calls about a man “pursuing a humpback whale,” on the big island, the department said in a Facebook post on Monday.

    REPORTING HOTLINE LIGHTS UP WITH CALLS ABOUT MAN PURSUING A HUMPBACK WHALE

    65-year-old David Jiménez of Maui was cited…

    Posted by Hawaii DLNR (Department of Land and Natural Resources) on Monday, March 6, 2023

    The suspect was identified as 65-year-old David Jiménez, who was allegedly seen snorkeling close to a humpback whale in Kealakekua Bay State Historical Park on Sunday, DLNR said.

    screen-shot-2023-03-07-at-10-36-02-am.png
    The video that allegedly shows Jiménez with the whale appears to have been filmed under water by  himself. 

    Hawaii DLNR


    The department shared a video on social media that appears to have been filmed under water by Jiménez himself. He is seen swimming close to the whale, reaching out and nearly touching its fin. 

    When the department’s enforcement division arrived on the scene, Jiménez was near a pod of dolphins. A responding officer recorded Jiménez allegedly pursing the pod and leading a group to chase the animals. 

    screen-shot-2023-03-07-at-10-36-13-am.png
    At one point in the video, Jiménez appears to extend his hand toward the whale, nearly touching it.

    Hawaii DLNR


    Jiménez is known as “Dolphin Dave” on Facebook, where he shares dolphin-inspired art.

    When asked about the incident, Jiménez told officers “he’s not going to stop swimming with whales and dolphins, ‘because it’s magical and others do much worse things,’” the department said. 

    He was cited for allegedly violating two Hawaii Administrative Rules – one that protects endangered whale species, and another that prevents the harassment of wildlife in a state parks. He is set to appear in court in May. 

    CBS News has reached out to Hawaii DLNR and Jiménez for further comment and is awaiting response.

    Several animals in Hawaii are protected under the several federal and state laws, according to DLNR. Under the National Marine Sanctuaries Act, humpback whales are protected, and other Hawaii state laws protected endangered, threatened and indigenous species like other whales, seals and many different types of dolphins. 

    While humpback whales were once considered endangered – and many populations around the world still are classified as endangered or threatened – they are not considered at risk in Hawaii, according to NOAA. Still, they are at risk of harassment from boats, particularly because they often swim close to shore and attract whale-watching tours. 

    NOAA advises whale watches to keep a safe distance and do not touch the whales. 

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    Caitlin O’Kane is a digital content producer covering trending stories for CBS News and its good news brand, The Uplift.

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    March 7, 2023
  • Rare blizzard warnings issued in Southern California as Midwest digs out from powerful winter storm | CNN

    Rare blizzard warnings issued in Southern California as Midwest digs out from powerful winter storm | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    A slow-moving winter storm brought snow, rain and high winds to the West on Friday, prompting rare blizzard warnings in Southern California.

    In its first-ever blizzard warning, the National Weather Service in San Diego said the San Bernardino County mountains could see 3 to 5 feet of snow through Saturday morning.

    Blizzard warnings were also issued for Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Saturday afternoon. Up to 5 feet of snow is possible with some isolated areas seeing between 7 and 8 feet. The National Weather Service’s Los Angeles office issued its last blizzard warning on February 4, 1989.

    “This storm system will be unusually cold, and snow levels will be very low. In fact, areas very close to the Pacific Coast and also into the interior valleys that are not accustomed to seeing snow, may see some accumulating snowfall,” the National Weather Service said early Friday.

    “For Friday morning through Saturday afternoon, plan to hunker down and avoid travel. The worst impacts from flooding and blizzard conditions occur Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, when any non-essential or non-emergency travel should be postponed!” the San Diego weather service said.

    The National Weather Service on Friday afternoon issued a flash flood warning with a “considerable flash flood damage threat,” for Los Angeles and surrounding areas. This is the second highest level of flood warning from the NWS, only topped by a flood emergency.

    Over 6 million people are covered by the warning, including downtown Los Angeles, Pasadena, Beverly Hills, Burbank and Santa Barbara.

    “Flash flooding is already occurring…and is expected to worsen into the evening hours,” the NWS warning said.

    The weather service also warned that debris flows are likely from previous burn scars in the region.

    Up to 5 inches of rain could fall across lower elevations of the greater Los Angeles area while the mountains could see 6 inches. In the San Diego area, up to 3 inches of rain is possible in lower elevations while the mountains could get 7 inches.

    The storm has put more than 20 million people under flood watches and more than 30 million people under high wind alerts across Southern California – roughly two months after the state endured rounds of deadly flooding. The highest gusts in the warning areas could reach 75 mph.

    The storm system will impact Northern California early in the day Friday. Up to 6 inches of snow is possible across lower elevations and up to 3 feet could fall on the region’s highest peaks before conditions begin to improve by Friday evening as the storm slips to the south.

    The Sierra Nevada Mountains could see up to 6 feet of snow Friday into Saturday and in Nevada, a blizzard warning for northwestern Nye County will be in effect Friday morning through early Saturday.

    “Heavy snow, winds gusting as high as 60 mph, will cause zero visibility due to blowing and drifting snow,” the weather service warned.

    Snow has already hit the Santa Cruz Mountain, resident Ngugi Kihara told CNN on Friday.

    “We never seen this much snow up here,” Kihara said. “We woke up to it. It started yesterday but picked up a lot overnight. Lots of trees are falling and all the roads around us are closed. Power is out and has been mostly gone since Tuesday.”

    Children revel in the rare snowfall in Yucaipa with a view of the San Bernardino County mountains in California.

    Power outages were already adding up in California early Friday, with nearly 75,000 customers in the dark, largely in the northern region. That accounts for a small portion of the more than 820,000 power outages recorded nationwide as the day began, according to PowerOutage.us. The majority of the outages – nearly 720,000 – were in Michigan, where freezing rain and ice this week damaged utility lines and trees.

    The storm struck the West as a ferocious, multiday winter storm began to subside after wreaking havoc in several states across the West, northern Great Plains the Great Lakes region and New England.

    Several counties in Wyoming went into search-and-rescue mode after more than 40 inches of snow fell in the southern parts of the state over the course of several days and motorists were trapped in heavy snow, the state highway patrol said on Twitter.

    Ice covered tree branches are seen on the ground after a freezing ice storm in Ypsilanti, Michigan, on Thursday.

    Minneapolis, Minnesota, saw more than 13 inches in a three-day period this week. More than 160 vehicle crashes were reported statewide, and dozens of cars spun off roads Wednesday, a spokesperson for the Minnesota State Patrol said in a series of tweets.

    Minneapolis officials have declared a one-day snow emergency beginning Friday, and city crews have been plowing and treating streets.

    Since the storm began Monday evening, cumulative snowfall reached dozens of inches in some cities, including 48 inches in Battle Lake, Wyoming, 32 inches in Dupuyer, Montana, and 29 inches in Park City, Utah.

    But snow was not the storm’s only culprit. Severe icing was also a danger.

    Ann Arbor, Michigan, recorded 0.65 inches, while Fransville, Wisconsin, measured 0.75 inches of ice.

    And in New England, icy conditions likely contributed to a massive 15-vehicle pileup on the Massachusetts Turnpike Thursday night, according to a tweet by the Massachusetts State Police.

    The chain-reaction crash involved multiple personal vehicles and tractor trailers, officials said. Troopers, firefighters and EMS responded to the incident and multiple victims had to be transported to the hospital, according to the tweet.

    As northern regions of the country were measuring snowfall and ice accumulation, parts of the Southeast were experiencing record-high heat.

    More than 50 daily record highs were recorded in the Southeast Thursday.

    • St. Simons Island, Georgia, saw a high temperature of 88 degrees, an all-time February record.
    • Tupelo, Mississippi, reached a high temperature of 87 degrees, another an all-time February record. The previous record of 84 degrees was set Wednesday.
    • Raleigh, North Carolina, saw a high temperature of 85 degrees, which was an all-time February record. The previous record of 84 degrees was set in 1977.

    The dueling winter storm and southern heat wave created a stark 100-degree temperature difference between the Northern Rockies and the South earlier this week.

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    February 24, 2023
  • The deadly ice storm crippling much of the South leaves more than 300,000 Texans without power in the frigid cold | CNN

    The deadly ice storm crippling much of the South leaves more than 300,000 Texans without power in the frigid cold | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Treacherous road conditions are now linked to three deaths in Texas as a wave of ice and sleet continues to hammer parts of the southern and central US into the overnight hours.

    A 49-year-old woman was killed this week when she lost control of her truck on an icy road north of Eldorado, the Texas Department of Public Safety told CNN on Wednesday.

    Two other deaths were previously linked to the storm that coated Texas cities with sleet or ice. In south Austin, one person died Tuesday morning in a 10-car pileup, the city’s fire department said. Another person died when their car rolled over in the Dallas-area city of Arlington, police said.

    The dangerous conditions are not over. A nasty combination of freezing rain, sleet and accumulating ice are expected hit parts of Texas, Arkansas and Tennessee through at least Thursday morning, forecasters said.

    “Road conditions will be AWFUL after sunset and overnight,” the National Weather Service in Fort Worth said. “DO NOT BE ON THE ROADS.”

    More than an inch of sleet has already piled up in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky and Illinois since Monday.

    In Texas alone, more than 350,000 homes, businesses and other power customers had no electricity in the frigid cold Wednesday night, according to PowerOutage.US.

    Ice brought down multiple trees and large tree limbs Wednesday, causing power outages across the Austin metro area, the National Weather Service said.

    Dangerous conditions prompted Parkland Health system in Dallas to extend the closure of its clinics on Thursday.

    Here’s what’s on tap in the southern and central US:

    • Texas: The state has seen heavy freezing rain throughout Wednesday, which will continue steadily into overnight across much of northern and central Texas as temperatures remain below freezing.

    • Southern Oklahoma: Freezing rain continues to move across the region and will last through Thursday morning.

    • South-central Arkansas and Tennessee’s Memphis area: An additional tenth- to quarter-inch of ice could pile up through Thursday morning.

    • Across the region: Total ice accumulation of at least a quarter of an inch is likely from West Texas to western Tennessee through Thursday morning. Up to a half-inch could build up in parts of central and north-central Texas and southern Arkansas, the National Weather Service said.

    • Widespread flight cancellations: More than 2,400 flights within, into or out of the US were canceled Wednesday, according to the tracking website FlightAware.

    Jackknifed tractor-trailers blocked Interstate 10 in Reeves County, Texas, on Tuesday.

    In a state not accustomed to heavy ice, a group of Jeep enthusiasts used their vehicles to help stranded drivers.

    The Dallas-based “Carnales Off Road” group regularly supports those in need, founder Jorge Coronilla Muñiz told CNN.

    “It’s not the first time we’ve done this during bad weather. We try to help as often as possible,” Muñiz said.

    Several semi-trucks got stuck on Interstate 20 on Tuesday, and about 30 Jeeps helped tow them.

    “Before we got to I-20, we also helped a few other cars who were stuck on the streets,” Muniz said. “We eventually came across the standstill on Interstate 20 and helped an additional 20 trucks.”

    Muñiz said he and other group members helped stranded motorists from early Tuesday morning all the way until 10 p.m.

    “Everyone was very grateful for our help, especially the truck drivers. Some even asked if we were going to charge them for the help, but we told them we were just there to help.”

    The group is back out on the roads Wednesday and will help medical professionals having difficulty getting to and from work, Muñiz said.

    More than 12 million people across parts of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri, central and eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi and Texas are under ice storm warnings Wednesday.

    The weather service issues ice storm warnings when ice accumulations of more than a quarter of an inch are possible.

    Unsafe travel conditions Tuesday led to hundreds of car crashes across Texas, officials said. Emergency workers responded to people suffering from hypothermia or those injured after slipping on ice. The Texas National Guard is prepared to help stranded motorists, clear roadways and provide welfare checks, Gov. Greg Abbott said. And Texas Parks and Wildlife has at least 30 responders ready for search and rescue operations.

    Meanwhile, a separate storm system will also send temperatures plunging across the Northeast.

    The National Weather Service predicts “dangerously cold temperatures” in the region Friday and Saturday, with freezing cold wind chills that can cause frostbite in just 10 minutes, it said.

    “Limit time outdoors and cover all skin if going out,” the service added.

    The service forecasts wind chills of -20 to -35 degrees Fahrenheit early Friday affecting parts of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, while Saturday morning could bring wind chills of -60 degrees Fahrenheit across northern New England, the weather service said.

    Leaders across states including Rhode Island, Connecticut and Maine were coordinating resources ahead of the extreme weather and setting up warming centers, according to messages from the governors.

    “Temperatures this weekend will be extremely – and dangerously – cold across the state,” Maine Gov. Janet Mills said in a Tuesday news release. “Please take extra precautions, be careful if you go outside, and be sure to check on your family, friends, and neighbors to make sure they are okay.”

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    February 1, 2023
  • Is offshore wind development a threat to whales? Here’s what to know.

    Is offshore wind development a threat to whales? Here’s what to know.

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    In less than two months, seven dead whales have washed up on the shores of New Jersey and New York. What’s behind the mortalities has not been clearly established, but theories abound. Some have pointed blame at offshore wind development in the region and claimed construction of the sites causes harm to marine animals. But federal officials are pushing back, saying that’s not what the evidence shows.

    Here’s what we know about the recent whale deaths and what researchers say could be the cause. 

    What happened to the whales? 

    Several dead whales have washed up on New Jersey and New York beaches since the beginning of December. Two were found in New York, with a 31-foot-long humpback whale washing up in Amagansett, on Long Island, on Dec. 6, and a 30-foot-long sperm whale found on Rockaway Beach on Dec. 12. The others have been found in New Jersey, including a 12-foot infant sperm whale in Keansburg on Dec. 5, a 30-foot humpback on Strathmere beach on Dec. 10, a humpback whale in Atlantic City on Dec. 23, and another 30-foot humpback whale in Atlantic City on Jan. 7. 

    The most recent was on Jan. 12, when a 32-foot-long humpback whale washed up in Brigantine, New Jersey. 

    325509551-860732578378461-6875052810853499762-n.jpg
    A dead female humpback whale more than 32 feet long washed up on the shore of Brigantine, New Jersey, in January 2023.

    Marine Mammal Stranding Center/Facebook


    The causes of death for these whales have not officially been confirmed, as it can take several months to obtain results of test sampling. But some of the cases did reveal information about what may have contributed. 

    The most recent whale, for example, may have been killed from a vessel strike after responders observed evidence of blunt trauma to the whale’s head and thoracic area, according to the Marine Mammal Stranding Center. Likewise, the whale found on Dec. 7 was also found with “marks from a suspected ship strike” near its blowhole and on the whale’s right side. In that case, responders also found a large hematoma — a pool of blood — under one of the suspected strike marks, and also found scars from a possible entanglement. 

    Why are some blaming wind energy? 

    Even though pathology results have not yet been released, some local groups have accused offshore wind energy development in the region of being responsible for the deaths. 

    The increase in offshore wind energy development comes amid the White House’s goal to ramp up offshore energy capacity to 30 gigawatts by 2030 — an amount the administration says could provide power to more than 10 million Americans’ homes for a year. 

    On Jan. 9, a local group called Clean Ocean Action issued a press release demanding “an immediate and fully transparent investigation” into the whale deaths, a “hard stop” on existing offshore wind energy development activities, and a pause to any “new, planned, or pending” development permitting activities. 

    “These tragic multiple deaths of mostly young, endangered whales are of no apparent cause, however, the only new activity in the ocean is the unprecedented concurrent industrial activity by over 11 companies in the region’s ocean, which allows the harassment and harm of tens of thousands of marine mammals,” Cindy Zipf, executive director of the organization, said in the release.

    Clean Ocean Action accuses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of giving “the green light” for offshore wind companies to “harm, harass, injure and kill” marine mammals in their development process through Incidental Take Authorizations. The ITAs issued by NOAA may allow the unintentional harassment, injury or killing of marine mammals in connection to authorized activities, “including construction projects, scientific research projects, oil and gas development, and military exercises.”

    But during a call with reporters on Wednesday, NOAA officials reiterated that the agency “has not authorized — or proposed to authorize — mortality or serious injury of whales for any wind-related action.” It also said “no whale mortality has been attributed to offshore wind activity.” 

    Concerned about the recent whale strandings along the East Coast? So are we. Our experts are following the science and sharing the facts: https://t.co/aF5TMJueY8

    — NOAA Fisheries (@NOAAFisheries) January 18, 2023

    According to NOAA, there are 12 active authorizations for “Level B” harassment from offshore wind sites in the Atlantic Ocean from New England to the Carolinas, meaning that companies will likely disturb animals, but do not have permission to injure or kill. There are also two active authorizations that allow non-serious injury, specifically auditory injury, from “exposure to noise from pile driving.” 

    Benjamin Laws, NOAA Fisheries deputy chief for the permits and conservation division, told reporters that “no injury, and certainly no mortality,” has been authorized. 

    Laws said that most of the offshore activity right now is surveys for more developments. During a vessel-based survey, a piece of equipment that emits sound is paired with a receiver and towed through the water in a zig-zag fashion to track how sound waves bounce off the sea floor. 

    Laws said that the agency did not have “evidence that would support the connection between the survey work and these recent stranding events or any stranding events in the last several years.” 

    Erica Staaterman, a bioacoustician with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, said during the call that the equipment used in these surveys is not as intrusive to marine animals compared to the equipment used in oil and gas construction. Whereas offshore oil and gas development uses seismic air guns, the equipment being used for offshore wind development surveys emits a smaller amount of acoustic energy in a smaller radius and are used for shorter periods of time, she explained. 

    The agency added that when surveys are done, vessels are required to slow their speed and must be joined by protected species observers at all times, with at least one observer during the day and at least two during the night with night vision devices. 

    NOAA has acknowledged that any activity that puts noise in the ocean could potentially impact marine mammals, namely with their navigation, habitats and vessel traffic. However, there is no evidence that’s what happened in the most recent cases of whale strandings, the agency said. 

    If development isn’t responsible for recent whale deaths, what is?

    One of the most important aspects of the string of whale deaths to note is that humpback whales, which have made up a majority of the recent events, have been undergoing an unusual mortality event since 2016. Since then, there have been roughly 178 deaths, most of which occurred in Massachusetts and New York. Necropsies have been done on at least half of those whales, of which about 40% had evidence of either a ship strike or entanglement. More research on the cause for the event as a whole is needed. 

    Both humpback and sperm whales, the two species seen washing up on shores, are listed as endangered, according to NOAA. Human interaction remains the species’ No. 1 threat, namely from vessel strikes, entanglements, noise pollution and marine debris. 

    Sarah Wilkin, coordinator of the Marine Mammal Health and Stranding Response Program, said Wednesday that humpback whale strandings in particular tend to happen in the mid-Atlantic during winter. Researchers are still working on determining if the recent strandings is an elevated number compared to previous years, she said.

    Climate change is also anticipated to have a major impact on the whales, as changes in the ocean can impact their habitat and food availability. Sperm whales are expected to be more resilient to these changes, as they have a more widespread presence worldwide. 

    However, these are reasons for overall deaths and are not specific to the most recent string of events. The reasons for each of the most recent deaths are still being determined. 

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    Li Cohen is a social media producer and trending reporter for CBS News, focusing on social justice issues.

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    January 20, 2023
  • 90% of Californians are under flood watches as another storm threatens mudslides, power outages and deadly inundation | CNN

    90% of Californians are under flood watches as another storm threatens mudslides, power outages and deadly inundation | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Much of California can’t soak up another drop of rain. Yet the state is getting pummeled again with torrential downpours and ferocious winds, causing power outages and treacherous travel conditions.

    More than 34 million Californians were under a flood watch Monday – about 90% of the state’s population and 10% of the US population.

    Parts of the central California coast got walloped with 1 to 1.25 inches of rainfall per hour, the Weather Prediction Center said. Extensive rainfall there Monday triggered significant flooding, mudslides, debris flows and closed roadways.

    Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches have been observed from just south of San Francisco to just north of Los Angeles. Isolated amounts of 6 to more than 10 inches have been observed in the higher terrain near the coast.

    As the rain shifted slowly to the south Monday toward Los Angeles, the National Weather Service there warned of the risk of flooding, debris flow in land scarred by recent wildfires and an increased risk of rock and mudslides in mountains and on canyon roads.

    And hurricane-force wind gusts topping 74 mph thrashed states across the western US. More than 37 million people were under wind alerts Monday in California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Arizona and Wyoming.

    A 132-mph wind gust lashed Oroville, California. Residents in Washoe City, Nevada, were hit with a 98-mph gust, the Weather Prediction Center said.

    TRACK THE STORMS

    “Expect widespread power outages, downed trees and difficult driving conditions,” the National Weather Service in Sacramento tweeted. “Now is the time to prepare if you have not already!”

    Almost 92,000 homes, businesses and other power customers had no electricity Monday evening, according to PowerOutage.us.

    And the central California coast could be at risk of a tornado, CNN Meteorologist Dave Hennen said.

    The severe weather is part of a relentless parade of atmospheric rivers slamming the West Coast.

    California is now extremely vulnerable to flooding because much of the state has been scarred by historic drought or devastating wildfires – meaning the land can’t soak up much rainfall.

    And after an onslaught of storms since late December led to deadly flooding, Gov. Gavin Newsom warned Sunday: “We expect to see the worst of it still in front of us.”

    Two bouts of major rainfall are expected to hammer the West Coast over the next few days – without much of a break between events for the water to recede.

    The system is part of an atmospheric river – a long, narrow region in the atmosphere that can transport moisture thousands of miles, like a fire hose in the sky.

    The atmospheric river slamming California on Monday could result in a 1-in-50 year or 1-in-100 year rainfall event near Fresno, the Weather Prediction Center said.

    A moderate risk – level 3 of 4 – of excessive rainfall covers over 26 million people in California, including in San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles and Fresno, where rain could fall at 1 inch per hour.

    Owners of a restaurant in Aptos, California, place sandbags in front of their establishment Monday.

    The San Lorenzo River in Santa Cruz County has risen 14 feet in just over four hours and is in major flood stage. Parts of the county will experience “widespread flooding at shallow depths,” and the city of Santa Cruz will have serious flooding, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and US Geological Survey.

    The threat will shift further south Tuesday, with a level 3 of 4 risk centered over Los Angeles.

    “While some of the forecast rain totals are impressive alone, it is important to note that what really sets this event apart are the antecedent conditions,” the National Weather Service office in San Francisco said.

    “Multiple systems over the past week have saturated soil, increased flow in rivers and streams, and truly set the stage for this to become a high impact event.”

    In Sacramento County, officials warned “flooding is imminent” and issued evacuation orders for the Wilton community near the Cosumnes River before roads become impassable.

    Wilton residents also had to evacuate during last week’s storm, when exit routes flooded quickly, officials said.

    A man wades through a flooded street in Aptos Monday.

    El Dorado, Monterey, Santa Cruz and Santa Clara and Alameda counties have issued evacuation warnings or recommendations for some areas due to possible flooding and other safety risks as forecasters warned of swelling rivers.

    Residents in all all areas of Montecito, parts of Santa Barbara and Summerland are being ordered to evacuate immediately due to the threat of the ongoing storm, the local fire department announced Tuesday.

    Montecito is a haven for the rich and famous, including Prince Harry and his wife, Meghan, Duchess of Sussex; Oprah Winfrey and Ellen Degeneres. Monday marks exactly five years since heavy rains in the area caused deadly mud- and landslides.

    Santa Barbara County authorities are advising residents to “be prepared to sustain yourself and your household for multiple days if you choose not to evacuate, as you may not be able to leave the area and emergency responders may not be able to access your property in the event of road damage, flooding, or a debris flow.”

    A section of a parking lot sits sunken Sunday after a storm at Seacliff State Beach in Aptos, California.

    Newsom on Sunday asked the White House for an emergency declaration to support response and recovery efforts.

    “We are in the middle of a deadly barrage of winter storms – and California is using every resource at its disposal to protect lives and limit damage,” Newsom said in a statement. “We are taking the threat from these storms seriously, and want to make sure that Californians stay vigilant as more storms head our way.”

    San Francisco Mayor London Breed on Monday issued a Local Proclamation of Emergency due to the ongoing series of winter storms that began New Year’s Eve, according to a news release from his office.

    This storm system arrives on the heels of a powerful cyclone that flooded roads, toppled trees and knocked out power last week to much of California. Earlier, a New Year’s weekend storm system produced deadly flooding.

    At least 12 Californians have died from “storm-related impacts” such as flooding since late December, the governor’s office said.

    In San Luis Obispo County, dive teams from the sheriff’s office and Cal Fire rescuers were searching Monday for a 5-year-old child reported to have been swept away in flood waters near the Salinas River in San Miguel.

    “Floods kill more individuals than any other natural disaster,” California Emergency Services Director Nancy Ward said Sunday. “We’ve already had more deaths in this flood storm since December 31 than we had in the last two fire seasons of the highest fire acreage burned in California.”

    Flood-related deaths can happen when drivers attempt to cross standing water.

    “Just a foot of water and your car’s floating. Half a foot of water, you’re off your feet. Half foot of water, you’re losing control of your vehicle,” Newsom said.

    “We’re seeing people go around these detours because they don’t see any obstacles – they think everything is fine, and putting their lives at risk or putting first responders lives at risk.”

    For anyone who doesn’t need to travel during the peak of this storm, “please don’t,” California Secretary of Natural Resources Wade Crowfoot said. “Be prepared for power outages and other interruptions. Have those flashlights, the candles, batteries, charge cell phones at the ready.”

    Already, flooded roads, toppled trees and downed power lines are making travel difficult, California Highway Patrol said. Some fallen trees crushed cars and homes over the weekend. On Monday, portions of the Pacific Coast Highway – US 101, a major north-south highway, were closed.

    The Santa Barbara Airport, a tri-county regional airport, is closed because of flooding airport officials said Monday.

    Crane operator Ricky Kapuschinsky prepares to lift uprooted trees Sunday in Sacramento, California.

    California is experiencing “weather whiplash,” going from intense drought conditions to now contending with its fifth atmospheric river, Newsom said.

    Much of the state has already seen 5 to 8 inches of rain over the last week. Two to 4 more inches of rain are expected across the coasts and valleys – and even more in mountains and foothills through Tuesday.

    Rising from swelling rivers could spill over and inundate communities.

    The rainfall over the weekend brought renewed flood concerns for streams, creeks and rivers. The Colgan Creek, Berryessa Creek, Mark West Creek, Green Valley Creek and the Cosumnes River all have gauges that are either above flood stage or expected to be in the next few days.

    “The cumulative effect of successive heavy rainfall events will lead to additional instances of flooding. This includes rapid water rises, mudslides, and the potential for major river flooding,” the National Weather Service said Monday.

    The moisture is expected to sink southward Monday night, making flooding “increasing likely” over the Southern California coastal ranges Tuesday, the weather service said. Fierce winds are expected to accompany the storm as it pushes inland.

    “Valley areas will likely see gusts as high as 45-50 mph, with gusts greater than 60 mph possible in wind prone areas,” the National Weather Service in Reno said. The Sierra Ridge could receive peak gusts between 130 to 150 mph Monday.

    For those at higher elevations, intense snow and ferocious winds will be the biggest concerns.

    Parts of the higher elevations in the Sierra Nevada have gotten more than 100” – or 8.3 feet – of snow in just the past few weeks, the Weather Prediction Center said.

    Now, another 6 feet of snow is expected in some parts of the Sierra.

    As the storm pushes inland, more than 5 feet of snow could fall along the Sierra Crest west of Lake Tahoe, the weather service said.

    The heavy snow and strong winds could lead to near whiteout conditions on roads.

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    January 9, 2023
  • Major storm leaves trail of destruction as it barrels across Central US with powerful tornadoes, flooding and heavy snow | CNN

    Major storm leaves trail of destruction as it barrels across Central US with powerful tornadoes, flooding and heavy snow | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    A major, multi-hazard storm is leaving a trail of destruction as it barrels across the country on Tuesday and continues to bring the risk of strong tornadoes and flooding to the South, and ice and snow to the Plains and Upper Midwest.

    The storm, which triggered deadly floods in California over the weekend, has tracked east and is pulling moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the South, where above-normal temperatures have set the stage for severe thunderstorms.

    Nearly 30 million people are under some sort of severe weather threat in the South, with the highest risk near the Gulf Coast. Southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi and Alabama were under a level 3 out of 5 “enhanced” risk of severe weather. Places like Baton Rouge, Montgomery and Gulfport could all see strong storms. A level 2 out of 5 “slight” risk of severe weather covered Nashville, New Orleans and Atlanta.

    The National Weather Service began issuing tornado watches Tuesday morning for millions of people from Louisiana to Tennessee as temperatures warmed and conditions became more favorable for violent storms. Multiple waves of severe weather are possible in this region through the day, the Storm Prediction Center warned, “with the risk expected to persist well into the night across much of the area.”

    Track the storm: Radar, weather alerts, travel delays and more

    Strong tornadoes, large hail and wind gusts topping 70 mph are possible in the most extreme thunderstorms.

    “Severe convection with all three modes (tornadoes, hail and damaging winds) is likely,” the National Weather Service office in Mobile warned.

    Heavy rainfall associated with these thunderstorms could also trigger significant flash flooding across the South. Southeastern Alabama and Southwest Georgia are under a level 3 out of 4 “moderate” risk of excessive rainfall. Portions of Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia are also under a level 2 out of 4 “slight” risk of excessive rainfall.

    Rainfall totals could reach 2 to 4 inches across the South through Wednesday, while some areas could see up to 6 inches.

    Since Monday night there have already been several tornado reports. One of the tornadoes that was reported was in Jonesboro, Louisiana, where large trees were knocked downed and damaged. The other was reported in Haywood, Tennessee.

    Damage was also reported after a possible tornado in Jessieville, Arkansas, according to Garland County officials.

    “Damage was sustained to areas of (a) school due to trees, and power lines. The school was currently in session at the time, however all students have been accounted for and reports of no injury,” the Garland County Sheriff’s Office said in a release.

    Ashley Shaver says she's never seen flooding like this at her house in Fountain Hill, Arkansas. This area received around 3 inches of rain over the course of 12 hours, according to the National Weather Service.

    In Jackson Parish, Louisiana, residents were told to stay off the roads as the severe weather toppled trees and covered roadways with water. Jackson Parish Sheriff’s Department said tarps will be given out to those whose homes are damaged.

    “We are trying to work to get to houses that are damaged and clear roads,” the Sheriff’s Department said.

    As the risk persists, forecasters have been concerned about tornadoes forming at night, according to Brad Bryant of the National Weather Service office in Shreveport, Louisiana.

    “You can’t see them coming. A lot of the time, people are asleep and not paying attention to the weather,” Bryant said. “Many areas around here don’t have good cell phone coverage and storm alerts are not as effective in those areas, especially once people are asleep.”

    Anyone in areas at risk of tornadoes should seek safe shelter immediately, Bryant said.

    “If you wait around for a warning to be issued, it is too late,” Bryant said Monday. “You need to have a safe shelter plan in place in advance of these storms.”

    Damage reports were also coming from across northern Louisiana, including several transmission highline towers being damaged in the Haile community in Marion. One of the towers was knocked over and several others are damaged, according to the National Weather Service in Shreveport.

    A wind gust of 81 mph was reported in Adair, Oklahoma – a gust equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane.

    As the South braces for floods and tornadoes, the storm continues to bring heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain across the Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, significantly impacting travel.

    Over 15 million people are under winter weather alerts from the Plains to the Great Lakes.

    Residents in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota are likely to see intense snow rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour.

    01 weather snow US

    National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD/Twitter

    Blowing and drifting snow on Tuesday may result in snow-covered roads and make it “hazardous, if not impossible” to travel, the weather service warned.

    Road conditions were already deteriorating Monday night in northwestern Iowa, northern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, according to the weather service in Omaha. Portions of northern Nebraska have already reported nearly a foot of snow and could get an additional 12 to 18 inches on Tuesday, according to the weather service.

    A significant winter storm will shift from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through Tuesday and Wednesday. The storm will bring areas of heavy snow, ice, severe thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall. https://t.co/VyWINDkBnn pic.twitter.com/ujXR7lCMdI

    — National Weather Service (@NWS) January 3, 2023

    Roughly 200 miles of eastbound Interstate 80 in Wyoming, from Evanston to Rawlins, are closed due to the ongoing impacts of the storm, according to the Wyoming Department of Transportation. The department said westbound traffic is further blocked from the Rawlins section of I-80 to the Interstate-25 junction in Cheyenne, which covers more than 120 miles.

    “Snow (and) blowing snow to impact Wyoming roads into tonight,” an agency Facebook post read. “A high wind event will then create blowing (and) drifting snow, poor visibility and possible whiteout conditions Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for sections of I-80, I-25, South Pass and various secondary roads!”

    “If you can, please stay home. If you must travel, ensure you have an emergency kit in your car,” the weather service in Sioux Falls told residents, saying travel will become difficult to impossible by Tuesday morning.

    Here’s a look at some of the web cameras across the area. Dell Rapids, Mitchell, and Gregory are already receiving accumulating snow. At the Sioux Falls Airport however, we’ve only seen some sleet and freezing rain. What are you seeing near you? #SDwx pic.twitter.com/ucI140Wyio

    — NWS Sioux Falls (@NWSSiouxFalls) January 2, 2023

    A vehicle winter emergency kit includes snacks and water, a battery-powered weather radio, flashlights and batteries, a first aid kit, a shovel and ice scraper, a jumper cable and other items.

    Significant ice accumulations from freezing rain are expected, possibly over a quarter inch, from northeastern Nebraska through northwestern Iowa into southern Minnesota.

    The freezing rain poses a significant hazard to those on foot. Even a light glaze can make for slippery sidewalks and driveways. Accumulations more than 0.25 inches can cause scattered power outages and break tree limbs, the weather service says.

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    January 3, 2023
  • Heavy rain and snow, strong winds hitting the West this week | CNN

    Heavy rain and snow, strong winds hitting the West this week | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Heavy coastal rain and mountain snow from a potent atmospheric river are falling across the western United States, with more to come later this week.

    All 11 Western states are expecting rain or snow, with the heaviest impacts predicted for California. By Tuesday afternoon, the rain, snow and wind have already knocked out power to about 161,000 customers in Oregon, 40,00 in Washington state and 14,400 in California, according to poweroutage.us.

    The atmospheric river – a long, narrow region in the atmosphere that can transport moisture thousands of miles – is the reason flood watches were issued for more than 5.4 million people across much of the West Coast, including Seattle and San Francisco.

    More than 16 million people in the West are under wind alerts from the National Weather Service through at least Tuesday evening as the storm system pushes inland.

    A high-wind warning is in effect for much of the Pacific Northwest, where widespread winds of 35 to 45 mph with wind gusts up to 70 mph are forecast or already occurring. In addition, wind advisories are also posted both in the Pacific Northwest as well as many other Western states.

    “Strong, possibly damaging, winds…with gusts as high as 60 mph” are forecast for the Portland metro & Willamette Valley through at least 3 pm PST, according to the NWS in Portland. Along the coast gusts are forecast 50 to 70 mph.”

    Some areas are already seeing wind gusts of 76 mph, equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane.

    Some of the top wind gusts included 90 mph in Walker, California; 84 mph in Cambridge, Idaho; and 82 mph in Wagontire, Oregon.

    Strong winds in Portland could knock down trees that have been weakened by weather extremes in recent years, arborist Colin Bourgeois told CNN affiliate KATU.

    “The consecutive dry summers that we’ve had, especially the heat events like the heat dome, that really damages trees and it takes up so much of their energy to fuel their immune systems to fight off pathogens,” Bourgeois said.

    Areas to the west of Portland have seen up to 6 inches of precipitation in the past 24 hours, and the city on Monday broke a record for the date.

    Portland recorded 2.12 inches of rain, topping the record of 1.08 inches set on December 26, 1996. Monday was the third-rainiest December day on record in Portland.

    Over the next five days, rainfall across much of the West is forecast to be between 2-4 inches with isolated pockets up to 6 inches. Along the coast, rainfall is forecast to be between 4-6 inches with isolated areas potentially seeing higher.

    The greatest flash-flooding concerns are for the western foothills of the Sierra Nevadas, as well as the coastal portions of southern Oregon down through the Bay Area and to Los Angeles County.

    Widely scattered instances of flash flooding are possible at lower elevations, particularly in burn scars from wildland fires.

    Moderate to heavy rain has been falling across portions of the Bay Area since Monday night and is expected to keep falling for several days.

    As of mid-morning Tuesday, downtown San Francisco had recorded 1.21 inches of rain, Santa Rosa 2.72 inches and Mount Tamalpais 4.10 inches.

    Law enforcement had reports of roadway flooding, so the National Weather Service office issued a flood advisory.

    The storm will bring a temperature drop of 15-20 degrees to Southern California.

    “Say goodbye to the warmth,” the National Weather Service in Los Angeles tweeted Monday. “Big drop in temperatures on track between today and tomorrow (Tuesday). Expect 15-20 degrees of cooling thanks to the approaching storm system.”

    Temperatures could get as low as 49 on Wednesday night in Los Angeles, the weather service predicted.

    The weather service office in Northern California also warned of rough ocean conditions.

    “Seas have built to between 16 and 22 feet along the Northwest California coast,” the office in Eureka said on Twitter. “This is causing dangerous marine conditions, but also bringing large surf to the coastline. Please stay far back from the surf and off of rocks/jetties.”

    In terms of snowfall, winter storm alerts have been issued for 11 Western states.

    Over the next five days, lower elevation areas could see between 2-10 inches of snowfall with isolated areas getting 12-24 inches.

    Snowfall in higher elevations could be between 1-3 feet with isolated areas seeing over 3 feet.

    California is off to a fast start with snowpack, a critical source of water and good news for some improvement in drought conditions. As of late last week, the state’s snowpack was running more than 150% of normal, according to the California Department of Water Resources.

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    December 27, 2022
  • A ‘particularly dangerous situation’ tornado watch has been issued for 3 southern states | CNN

    A ‘particularly dangerous situation’ tornado watch has been issued for 3 southern states | CNN

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    Editor’s Note: Affected by the storms? Use CNN’s lite site for low bandwidth.



    CNN
     — 

    Numerous tornadoes – including a few intense ones – are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening for parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi as severe storms rake the area, a situation that moved forecasters to issue a special tornado watch alerting residents to an unusual level of risk.

    Track the storms as they develop >>

    A “particularly dangerous situation” tornado watch, reserved for the most significant severe-storm threats and used in only 3% of watches, was issued for some areas in those states by the Storm Prediction Center.

    The watch, covering nearly 2.5 million people in far southeastern Arkansas, northern and central Louisiana and central Mississippi, was set to be in effect from shortly after noon to 7 p.m. CT.

    This comes as severe storms could hit a much wider area of the United States from Tuesday into early Wednesday, from the Gulf Coast to the Midwest, with tornadoes, damaging winds and hail, forecasters said.

    But prediction center forecasters focused especially on Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi, saying “parameters appear favorable for strong and long-tracked tornadoes,” meaning ones that stay on the ground for an extended period, Tuesday afternoon and early evening in the watch area.

    “Numerous tornadoes (are) expected with a few intense tornadoes likely,” along with scattered large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, forecasters said in the special tornado watch.

    Overall, more than 41 million people from southeastern Texas eastward to Georgia and northward to central Indiana and Illinois are under at least a marginal threat of severe weather Tuesday, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

    Separate from the special tornado watch, the prediction center laid out an area where it believed the largest potential for severe weather, including tornadoes, existed – covering 1.6 million people in east-central Louisiana; a sliver of southeastern Arkansas; much of Mississippi, including Jackson; and northwestern Alabama. The threat for that area – a Level 4 of 5, or moderate – is relatively rare for this time of year, and tornadoes, though they can happen year-round, are more frequent in the spring and summer.

    “Severe thunderstorms in the fall and winter can be extremely impactful and may sometimes catch people off guard as thunderstorms tend to occur less frequently during the cooler months,” Bill Bunting, chief of forecast operations at the Storm Prediction Center, told CNN Weather.

    A Level 3 of 5, or enhanced, risk zone encircles that area, covering 2.8 million people across parts of Mississippi and Louisiana as well as a small part of eastern Texas, southeastern Arkansas, southwestern Tennessee and western Alabama.

    What is a long-track tornado?

  • Long-track tornadoes are tornadoes that are on the ground for an extended period of time. The majority of tornadoes are on the ground for just minutes, but with some severe events, there could be tornadoes on the ground for hours. This kind of tornado is known for causing widespread damage.

Some tornadoes could happen overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, making them even more threatening because it’s harder during those hours to alert people to take shelter.

“Another challenge with nighttime tornadoes, especially in the fall and winter, is that storms typically move very quickly, at times 50 or 60 mph,” Bunting said.

“This means that you must make decisions quickly and take shelter based on information contained in the severe thunderstorm or tornado warning, and not wait until the storm arrives,” Bunting added.

The same storm system also brought heavy snowfall to 13 states across the West and Upper Midwest, where millions of people were under winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings Tuesday morning.

Generally about 2 to 4 inches of rain could fall in the south-central United States, and the total could be greater in far southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama, where the storms could stall, the Weather Prediction Center said.

That could cause flooding in those areas, where the soil is damp from recent rains, the prediction center said. Flood watches are in place Tuesday in parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi and Alabama.

In anticipation of the storms, the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency urged residents to document property that could get damaged.

“We encourage Mississippians to take photos of their home BEFORE the storms. These photos can be used for insurance purposes and/or possible assistance if your home is damaged in the storm,” the agency said on its Twitter account.

This is the first time since the Storm Prediction Center started using its five-tier risk system in 2014 that a Level 4 risk of severe storms has been announced twice in November, CNN meteorologist Taylor Ward said.

The other Level 4 came on the fourth day of this month, when 62 tornado reports were made across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana, according to the prediction center. Many homes and businesses were damaged.

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November 29, 2022
  • Several US regions face weekend weather systems that may complicate post-Thanksgiving travel | CNN

    Several US regions face weekend weather systems that may complicate post-Thanksgiving travel | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    As well-fed holiday travelers pack their bags, hit the roads and squeeze into planes this weekend, widespread rain and snow could cause delays in the trip home.

    Several weather systems are forecast to trouble regions of US on Saturday and Sunday, including two in the Northeast and another pair dumping snow on parts of the Pacific Northwest.

    Multiple storms are also expected to move across the Southeast this weekend, with many areas receiving up to 1 inch of rain through Sunday night, while Texas faces dueling snow and rain conditions.

    After rain on Friday, two separate systems will dampen weekend travel plans in the Northeast and Midwest over the weekend.

    Saturday will bring a sunny reprieve, the National Weather Service forecasts, before a cold front brings in more wet and breezy conditions on Sunday.

    “Precipitation will fall as rain for most, but mixed wintry precipitation will be possible in northern New England and parts of the Great Lakes region,” the National Weather Service said.

    Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are forecast across much of the eastern US over the weekend. Dry conditions are expected to return to the region as the system moves off the east coast on Monday, according to the NWS.

    Derek Van Dam/CNN

    Those traveling through Texas could face a difficult journey this weekend as the state endures heavy snowfall in its western counties and potentially flooding rains in the east.

    Winter storm warnings, winter weather advisories and a blizzard warning are in place across western Texas and southeastern New Mexico through Saturday morning when snowfall is expected to begin letting up.

    Widespread snowfall totals of 4 inches are expected across the winter storm warning area. Those under a blizzard warning in western Texas are forecast to receive total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches and gusty winds up to 60 mph.

    In western areas of the state and along its Gulf Coast, heavy rainfall overnight into Saturday morning could overwhelm soil already saturated by rains on Friday, bringing the threat of scattered flash flooding to some areas.

    Areas near the Gulf Coast are expected to see 2 to 3 inches of rainfall into Saturday morning, though some localities could see higher amounts, the prediction center said. Parts along the Gulf are under a moderate risk for excessive rainfall and could see more significant flash flooding.

    Farther east, storm conditions may make driving hazardous in some areas, including around Mobile, Alabama, where severe storms could occur Saturday, and in central North Carolina, where occasional wind gusts could reach 40 mph Sunday afternoon and evening, according to the National Weather Service.

    02 weather 112622

    Derek Van Dam/CNN

    A combination of snow and wind could lead to hazardous travel conditions in parts of the Northwest this weekend as the region is hit by two frontal systems.

    The system that brought rain and higher elevation snow through the Pacific Northwest on Friday will move into the Intermountain West on Saturday. Even heavier rain and mountain snow will follow as the second system moves into the Cascades and northern Rockies from Sunday into Monday.

    Some areas could see between 1 to 2 feet of snow and gusty winds of up to 40 mph through the weekend, with Sunday seeing the heaviest snowfall.

    Drivers should watch out for snow-covered roads in the Cascades on Sunday and Monday, the NWS office in Portland said.

    Winter storm watches and winter weather advisories have been issued for areas that are expected to be hard-hit.

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    November 26, 2022
  • Snow pummels western New York as metro Buffalo digs out from up to 6 feet of accumulation | CNN

    Snow pummels western New York as metro Buffalo digs out from up to 6 feet of accumulation | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Heavy snow is expected to keep piling up in western New York state through Sunday after a historic storm saw the Buffalo area logging record snowfall totaling more than 6 feet in some areas.

    Just after 11 p.m. Saturday, the National Weather Service in Buffalo issued a special weather statement warning a band of heavy snow accompanied by high winds was creating a “burst of snow” in western New York state. The band was moving south of the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas, the weather service said.

    By Sunday morning, winds shifted more westerly, meaning the heaviest lake-effect snow bands are now south of Buffalo impacting areas from Cleveland to Dunkirk, New York. Buffalo is no longer under a lake-effect snow warning but remains under a winter weather advisory through Sunday evening for “blowing snow,” according to the weather service.

    While the Buffalo area is used to dealing with heavy snowfall, this storm is delivering “much more than we usually get,” Mayor Byron Brown told CNN Saturday.

    Erie County, which includes Buffalo, experienced its largest-ever amount of snowfall in a 24-hour period Saturday, according to Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz.

    “This was a RECORD-BREAKING storm that in some ways was more intense than Snowvember, the relatively quick recovery is a testament to everyone’s preparation and planning,” Poloncarz tweeted. “The proactive approach continues to work.”

    “Snowvember” refers to a storm in the Buffalo area in November 2014, where nearly 7 feet of snow was dumped in three days. At least 13 people died in that storm and the weight of the snow caused dozens of roofs to crumble under the impact.

    Two people have died in this storm from cardiac complications related to shoveling snow and attempting to clear the ground, Poloncarz said.

    As the heaviest snow slid south of the greater Buffalo area into southern Erie and Chautauqua counties overnight, an additional 6 to 18 inches is possible in the region, especially across higher terrain, CNN Meteorologist Derek Van Dam said.

    The heaviest snowfall Sunday will be east of Lake Ontario, where up to a foot of additional snow is forecast with localized areas potentially seeing even more.

    Winds could gust as high as 45 mph across the Great Lakes region, which will lead to very cold conditions with temperatures feeling like single digits to slightly below zero.


    Snowfall totals of more than 6 feet have been recorded in two locations, according to the weather service. Orchard Park, where the NFL’s Buffalo Bills play, picked up 77.0 inches in a 48-hour period, and Natural Bridge, just east of Watertown, picked up 72.3 inches – historic numbers for the area.

    The multiday weather event has made travel in the region difficult, triggering the closing of roads, driving bans and flight cancellations the weekend before the Thanksgiving holiday.

    On Saturday night, the weather service warned the latest band would make travel conditions severe in a matter of minutes.

    Travel bans were in effect for much of Erie County, but as of Sunday morning New York Gov. Kathy Hochul tweeted many roads in Buffalo and Watertown have been able to reopen and “traffic is starting to move again!”

    Nearly 400 citations have been issued to drivers who have been found violating travel bans in the region, Poloncarz, the Erie County executive, said.

    “If you’re trying to enter an area where a travel ban exists, you will meet a friendly neighborhood New York State trooper who will immediately give you a ticket for violating the travel ban,” Poloncarz said.

    The New York State Thruway Authority tweeted, “Crews are out this morning on the Niagara Thruway (I-190) removing #snow from the shoulders. We have large snowblowers like this working around the clock to clear snow. Please use caution if you are traveling today. The Thruway has reopened to all traffic.”

    While officials earlier said some vehicles had to be towed after being stuck on the side of the road or involved in accidents, Hochul thanked New Yorkers who adhered to travel advisories and stayed home.

    “Thank you for just following the directions, staying off the roads, and as a result, all the major thoroughfares are open now in western New York and the north country, with some limitation,” Hochul said at a briefing Sunday morning.

    Air travel also has been snarled by the record snow, with dozens of flights arriving and departing from Buffalo Niagara International Airport canceled as storm conditions worsened, according to the airport’s website.

    The airport set a daily snowfall record of 21.5 inches Saturday, shattering the previous daily record of 7.6 inches set in 2014, the local weather office said.

    It ranks as the fifth-highest single-day snowfall total on record for Buffalo and the second-highest single-day snowfall total for the month of November.

    This month is already Buffalo’s third-snowiest November at the airport thanks to the storm, according to the local weather service office.

    Hochul thanked local and state agencies for their preparation efforts in western New York for storm preparations after a record dumping of snow, as the region is forecast to expect more this evening.

    Speaking at a storm briefing in Jefferson County on Sunday, Hochul said the area in upstate Oswego County is expecting another 2 feet of snow by 7 p.m. tonight, at a rate of around four inches per hour.

    Hochul said, “This has been an historic storm, without a doubt, it’s one for the record books. And as someone who is from Buffalo and has lived in upstate my entire life, we’ve seen a lot of snow.”

    Around 1,200 people have been impacted by power outages in the state. Hochul said this is a manageable number and “no one has been in the dark a long time.”

    The governor said, “Given the scale of this storm I’m really proud of how the utility crews have stepped up.”

    On Saturday, Hochul said she was doubling the number of New York National Guard members on the ground in Erie County to check on residents and help with snow removal.

    She also signed a request for federal reimbursement through a Federal Emergency Disaster Declaration.

    Nearly 6 million people across four Great Lakes states (Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York) will remain under winter weather alerts through much of Sunday.

    Brown, the Buffalo mayor, said the city could return to “some sense of normalcy” by Monday or Tuesday, assuming the worst of the storm passes through Sunday.

    “This has been a very unpredictable storm with the snow bands moving, back and forth, north to south,” Brown said. “The snow has come down very fast, very wet, very heavy.”

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    November 20, 2022
  • AP EXPLAINS: How one computer forecast model botched Ian

    AP EXPLAINS: How one computer forecast model botched Ian

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    As Hurricane Ian bore down on Florida, normally reliable computer forecast models couldn’t agree on where the killer storm would land. But government meteorologists are now figuring out what went wrong — and right.

    Much of the forecasting variation seems to be rooted in cool Canadian air that had weakened a batch of sunny weather over the East Coast. That weakening would allow Ian to turn eastward to Southwest Florida instead of north and west to the Panhandle hundreds of miles away.

    The major American computer forecast model — one of several used by forecasters — missed that and the error was “critical,” a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration postmortem of computer forecast models determined Thursday.

    “It’s pretty clear that error is very consequential,” said former NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue, now a private meteorologist who wasn’t part of NOAA’s postmortem.

    Still, meteorologists didn’t miss overall with their official Hurricane Ian forecast. Ian’s eventual southwestern Florida landfall was always within the “cone of uncertainty” of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track, although at times it was on the farthest edge.

    But it wasn’t that simple. Computer forecast models, which weeks earlier had agreed on where Hurricane Fiona was going, were hundreds of miles apart as Ian chugged through the Caribbean.

    The normally reliable American computer model, which had performed better than any other model in 2021 and was doing well earlier in the year, kept forecasting a Florida Panhandle landfall while the European model — long a favorite of many meteorologists — and the British simulation were pointing to Tampa or farther south.

    Trying to avoid what meteorologists call the dreaded “windshield wiper effect” of dramatic hurricane path shifts, the official NOAA forecast stayed somewhere in between. Tampa — with lots of people and land vulnerable to gigantic storm surges — seemed to be the center of possible landfalls, or even worse just south of the eye so it would get the biggest surge.

    Although people’s fears focused on Tampa, Ian didn’t.

    The storm made landfall 89 miles (143 kilometers) to the south in Cayo Costa. For a large storm, that’s not a big difference and is within the 100-mile (161-kilometer) error bar NOAA sets. But because Tampa was north of the nasty right-side of the hurricane eye, it was spared the biggest storm surge and rainfall.

    People wondered why the worst didn’t happen. There are meteorological, computer and communications reasons.

    Overall, the European computer model performed best, the British one had the closest eventual Florida landfall but was too slow in timing and the American model had the highest errors when it came to track, NOAA’s Alicia Bentley said during the agency’s postmortem. But the American model was the best at getting Ian’s strength right, she said.

    University of Albany meteorology professor Brian Tang said he calculated the American model’s average track error during Ian at 325 miles (520 kilometers) five-days out, while the European model was closer to 220 miles (350 kilometers).

    “A lot of what we notice in the public is when there are big misses and those big misses affect people in populated areas,” Tang said in an interview.

    Although this is technically not a miss, people who evacuated Tampa may think it is because the Fort Myers area got the brunt of the storm.

    In some ways people are spoiled because the average track error in hurricane forecasts have gotten so much better. The three-day official forecast error was cut nearly in half over the last 10 years from 172 miles (278 kilometers) to 92 miles (148 kilometers), Tang said.

    For years meteorologists touted the European model as better, because it uses more observations, is more complex but also takes longer to run and comes out later than the American one, Tang said. The American model has improved after a big boost of NOAA spending, but so has the European one, he added.

    The models use a similar physics formula to simulate what happens in the atmosphere. They usually rely on the same observations, more or less. But where they differ is how all those observations are put into the computer models, what kind of uncertainties are added and the timing of when the simulation starts, said University of Miami’s Brian McNoldy.

    “You are guaranteed to end up differently,” McNoldy said.

    It’s not a problem if the models show similar tracks. But if they are widely different, as during Ian, “that makes you nervous,” he said.

    People wrongly focus on funnel-like cone for where the hurricane is forecast to go instead of what it will do in specific locations, said MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel. And in the cone people only pay attention to the middle line not the broader picture, so Emanuel and McNoldy want the line dropped.

    Another problem meteorologists say is that the cone is only where the storm is supposed to be with a 100-mile (161-kilometer) error radius, but when storms are big like Ian, their impacts of rain, surge and high wind will easily hit outside the cone.

    “The cone was never intended to convey the actual impacts. It was only intended to convey the tracks,” said Gina Eosco, who heads a NOAA social science program that tries to improve storm communications.

    So for the first time, NOAA surveyed Florida, Georgia and South Carolina residents before Ian hit and will follow up after to see what risks the public perceived from the media and government information. That will help the agency decide if it has to change its warning messaging, Eosco said.

    ———

    Follow AP’s climate and environment coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

    ———

    Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears

    ———

    Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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    October 7, 2022
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