A research vessel that specializes in hydrographic surveys has been dispatched to assist in the investigation into the recent sinking of the Gloucester-based commercial fishing vessel Lily Jean with all seven hands lost.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has dispatched its 208-foot survey vessel Thomas Jefferson to take part in support of the ongoing investigation.
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Another winter storm may be headed toward the East Coast this weekend, on the heels of the powerful and deadly system that blanketed huge swaths of the country in snow and ice and killed dozens. The effects of that storm have lingered for many areas in its path and will likely remain as repeated bouts of Arctic air plunge downward from Canada and keep temperatures below freezing.
This could ultimately mark the longest stretch of cold the Eastern and Southeastern U.S. have experienced in decades, according to the National Weather Service.
Alongside the next wave of frigid air is a potential storm brewing off the coast of the Carolinas. Its forecast remained somewhat uncertain, although meteorologists anticipated it would at least affect stretches of the coastline and sections of surrounding mid-Atlantic states. Maps created by CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan illustrate possible forecast outcomes based on the latest weather modeling.
Maps show potential storm track
A coastal low-pressure storm system seemed poised to form off the Carolina coast on Friday, potentially laying the foundation for another winter storm this weekend, the National Weather Service said.
Different forecast models plotted diverging paths for the storm after its expected turn northward, at which point some indicate that the system will veer slightly toward the east, while others suggest its track will tilt westward instead. In the first scenario, the storm — and the snowfall that could accompany it — would largely avoid land. In the second, its westward lean could bring wintry weather, including more snow, to parts of the Northeast.
The low-pressure system expected to develop of the coast of the Carolinas could veer northeastward or northwestward this weekend, with the direction it takes dictating how its effects will be felt farther up the East Coast. The turquoise line in the graphic above represents the European forecast model, while the yellow line represents the U.S. model.
Nikki Nolan/CBS News
Meteorologists have become fairly confident that snowfall will affect southern Mid-Atlantic states, the Carolinas and Southern Appalachia, but the forecast was still variable for places farther up the coast.
“There does remain some uncertainty as to where this storm will track,” said Allison Santorelli, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center. “At this point, though, we have high confidence in a significant winter storm for the Southern Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. Confidence is lower farther up the coast towards New England and is more dependent on the exact storm track.”
Regardless of the track, Santorelli said meteorologists expected “significant” impacts” for a solid portion of the East Coast this weekend, including high winds. That echoed a warning from the National Weather Service in a bulletin Thursday morning, cautioning that the storm “will produce powerful onshore winds along the Mid-Atlantic Coast from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward,” with some gusts strong enough to produce coastal flooding.
The potential track of the storm, based on the European forecating model.
Nikki Nolan/CBS News
Winter storm warnings and watches have been issued for parts of the Carolinas, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia. Most are set to remain in place until Sunday, although some will be more brief.
In Virginia and the Carolinas, which are expected to feel the brunt of the storm, meteorologists have forecast blizzard conditions bringing “sharply reduced visibilities” and “making travel extremely treacherous. They also predict heavy snowfall in those states, possibly as much as 16 inches in some areas.
Dangerous wind gusts could materialize as well, some of which may approach hurricane force. The National Weather Service forecast office in Newport, North Carolina, warned people in the area to brace for gusts of up to 65 mph.
Coastal parts of the Carolinas, especially North Carolina, are forecast to see the heaviest snowfall.
Nikki Nolan/CBS News
Another Arctic blast
An upcoming surge of Arctic air will keep temperatures below freezing, likely creating a prime environment for snow to stick and potentially pile up on roads and other surfaces.
Temperatures on Friday morning could drop to record lows in a number of eastern cities, including Baltimore, Buffalo, New York City, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
While the western half of the U.S. experiences relative warmth, temperatures across eastern states are set to remain well below average for this time of year. Meteorologists have warned that extreme cold in many areas will persist until early February.
Nikki Nolan/CBS News
At New York’s LaGuardia Airport, forecasts indicated the temperature could sink to 4 degrees Fahrenheit, tying a record set nearly 80 years ago — in 1948. A similar freeze was expected in New Jersey, where the temperature around Newark Airport could fall to 3 degrees, tying an even older record set in 1935. The coldest conditions would likely materialize farther inland, with forecasts showing temperatures dropping to -8 degrees in Pittsburgh and -5 degrees in Buffalo. Each would break record lows for those cities set in 2019.
The addition of the developing storm off the Carolina coast will create severe wind chills well below zero degrees across the eastern U.S. and parts of the South, including areas experiencing ongoing power outages since last weekend.
Severe wind chills are expected to rip through large sections of the country this weekend.
Nikki Nolan/CBS News
A possible “bomb cyclone”
Despite variations in the storm forecasts, meteorologists have been discussing the possibility that a “bomb cyclone” could form if the storm escalates quickly. Nolan said the conditions forecast for this weekend potentially lend themselves to this phenomenon, which is also called “bombogenesis” and involves a winter storm undergoing rapid intensification, but she also emphasized that its development is not guaranteed.
Santorelli said a storm classified as a “bomb cyclone” while traveling up the coast was becoming increasingly plausible, based on the latest forecast models. She added that the storm would be more likely to go through the rapid intensification process if it tracks farther away from the coast “with less interaction with land masses” as it moves northward.
The predictions for this winter’s weather from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are out, and for the D.C. region, expect warmer weather.
The predictions for this winter’s weather from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are out; and for the Mid-Atlantic region, you can expect “a slight lean” toward warmer-than-normal weather.
But Andrew Ellis, professor of meteorology and climate science at Virginia Tech, said there’s only a “40% probability of warmer-than-normal” temperatures for December, January and February.
Ellis told WTOP the “normal” temperatures during the winter in the region range from a low in the 20s and a high in the 40s.
As for precipitation, Ellis said the totals are likely to fall within the normal range. Pinning down how much snowfall the region could see is trickier, he said.
“In the Mid-Atlantic, our snowfall is usually predicated on coastal storms … those are hard to predict,” he said.
Because one or two of those coastal storms “can really move the needle on our seasonal snowfall total, so it’s really hard to say what the winter will be like on the whole,” he added.
Winter in D.C. often comes with closures tied more to slick driving conditions than outsized snowfalls, something that can lead to school closures and late openings that mystify residents who come from regions of the country that measure seasonal snowfall in feet, not inches.
“The Mid-Atlantic, we’re poster children for the mixed bag of winter precipitation,” Ellis said. “We don’t get the pure cold air combined with storms because of the influence of the Atlantic Ocean. So when we do have cold air in place, then the secondary ingredient of getting a coastal storm — typically for us — means it drags in warm, moist air from over the Atlantic Ocean and that is very much the recipe for mixed precipitation of sleet and freezing rain.”
Part of what’s influencing the projected winter weather pattern is the arrival of La Niña, which is the cooling of the Pacific Ocean waters.
“For us in the United States, a pretty standard La Niña forecast is warmer and drier across the Southern tier and extending up the East Coast into the Mid-Atlantic region,” Ellis said. “That’s sort of where this winter’s forecast is born.”
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Priscilla turned into a hurricane on Sunday in the Pacific Ocean, and it is expected to continue strengthening into next week.
The storm system formed Saturday off the west coast of Mexico, where it was forecast to bring dangerous surf and possible flooding, the National Hurricane Center said. Priscilla moved over Pacific waters on a path expected to run parallel to the land.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for a vast stretch of the Mexican coastline from the southwestern state of Jalisco up to the Baja California peninsula.
Hurricane Priscilla’s track and forecast
On its forecast track, Priscilla’s center was expected to remain offshore of the southwestern Mexican coast and travel parallel to the land through the early part of the week, the hurricane center said.
Priscilla becomes a hurricane in the Pacific. It is expected to strengthens into a Category 2 storm later this week, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday, Oct. 5, 2025.
NOAA/National Hurricane Center
As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. ET update on Sunday, the storm was located about 290 miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, near the resort town Puerto Vallarta, and about 485 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.
It was traveling north-northwestward at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.
Although Priscilla was not forecast to directly touch land, the hurricane center said tropical storm conditions, including powerful winds, were possible in areas under a tropical storm watch on Sunday and Monday.
NOAA/National Hurricane Center
Heavy rain and, possibly, flash flooding, were also expected across parts of southwestern Mexico through Monday.
“Across coastal portions of Michoacán and far western Guerrero, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches are expected, with local amounts of up to 8 inches,” the hurricane center said. “Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero along the coast, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.”
Priscilla could also generate potentially life-threatening surf conditions and rip currents in coastal areas of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula, the hurricane center said. Some areas were already beginning to feel those effects Sunday, but forecasters warned that they may become more widespread by Monday.
Emily Mae Czachor is a reporter and news editor at CBSNews.com. She typically covers breaking news, extreme weather and issues involving social justice. Emily Mae previously wrote for outlets like the Los Angeles Times, BuzzFeed and Newsweek.
Officials said at the time a man was seen using a hunting knife to remove the head of the sea lion before placing the head in a bag and leaving the scene in a SUV. The office also posted a picture of a suspect and announced a $20,000 reward.
NOAA officials now say no mammal parts were taken and removed the photo.
“The individual has been located, and it was determined that no marine mammal parts were removed from the beach. We thank the public for their help and concern in this matter,” the agency said in its update.
Jason Bietz of Hanford, who said he was the man in the photo, told the Los Angeles Times that he reached out to NOAA investigators on Monday to clear his name. Bietz told the newspaper that he did not decapitate the animal.
Rashelle Diaz of Monterey, who reported the incident to authorities, told the Times that he had confronted Bietz and his daughter, saying she saw him leaning over the animal and prodding it with a knife.
Bietz also denied accusations that he was carrying a knife on the beach.
CBS News Bay Area reached out to the NOAA spokesperson, who was unavailable for comment due to the ongoing government shutdown.
According to the agency, harassing, harming, killing or feeding sea lions is prohibited under the Marine Mammal Protection Act, along with collecting parts of protected marine mammal species. Civil prosecution may result of fines up to $36,498 per violation, while criminal violations are punishable up to a year in jail and a $100,000 in fines.
Tim Fang is a digital producer at CBS Bay Area. A Bay Area native, Tim has been a part of the CBS Bay Area newsroom for more than two decades and joined the digital staff in 2006.
A new National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite is on its way to space after launching from Kennedy Space Center Wednesday morning.
Hitching a ride with two NASA research satellites, NOAA’s Space Weather Follow On satellite, or SWFO-L1, is on its way into orbit.
“While we have weather satellites in geostationary orbit and in low Earth orbit, this is the start of us having a continual presence at the LaGrange Point One for space weather forecasts, said Richard Ullman, acting director of NOAA’s Office of Space Weather Observations.
That special L1 point sits about a million miles away allowing the satellite and its tools to watch for potentially dangerous solar storms well before they reach Earth. Not only are there better instruments onboard, but Ullman said they’ll be able to get that data faster.
“For operational forecast, time is the essence. It’s not a luxury. It’s it’s a must-have. And what that means is that we can get sooner, better predictions on what weather is coming towards us.”
He said that advantage will help forecasters warn when there could be power grid, GPS or high frequency radio impacts. And given where we are in the solar cycle, the extra eyes are needed.
“Strong storms actually happen more often on the downward slope of of the of the solar cycle than on the upward slope. And so yeah, we could look forward to several years of aurora as that as that cycle winds down.”
That means more chances for us to see the northern lights in the coming years.
The satellite is scheduled to reach its new home in January and will become operational in the middle of 2026 after testing.
Born and raised in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, weather has been a passion for Adam for as long as he can remember! Whether it was thunderstorms or winter storms, Adam has always been geeking out. After earning his meteorology degree from Penn State, he made his way to the Ohio Valley to forecast for WTOV.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed Wednesday morning over the central Atlantic Ocean, becoming the seventh named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters expect the weather system to remain over open waters for the next several days and haven’t yet warned of any hazards that could potentially affect land. But it may become a low-grade hurricane as it intensifies over the weekend.
The storm’s current forecast predicts that Gabrielle’s track will carry it north of the Caribbean and away from land, but the system could reach Bermuda next week as it continues to strengthen, CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan said.
A map produced by Nolan shows Gabrielle’s anticipated westward path through Monday, at which point it may be packing hurricane-force winds as strong as 85 mph. The storm could develop into a hurricane Sunday as it passes near the Caribbean, according to the map.
CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan produced a map illustrating the potential path of Tropical Storm Gabrielle over the next several days.
Nikki Nolan for CBS News
Gabrielle developed before 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, and in the evening, it was situated roughly 990 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and tracking northwest at 22 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory.
Its maximum sustained winds on Wednesday night were 50 mph, just over the threshold that differentiates a tropical depression from a tropical storm. Gabrielle grew from a tropical depression in the Atlantic that meteorologists initially flagged earlier on Wednesday.
Tropical storm force winds extended outward some 175 miles from Gabrielle’s center on Wednesday morning, the Hurricane Center said, adding that the storm’s path and overall forecast remained “highly uncertain” as its center was still poorly defined.
Another map produced by the National Hurricane Center shows Gabrielle’s potential path toward Bermuda.
National Hurricane Center
Gabrielle took shape about one week after what was historically considered the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs annually from June 1 to Nov. 30 and has in the past become most active around Sept. 10.
Officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration initially predicted the 2025 season would be busier than usual and produce more named storms than an average year, but hurricane activity has so far been quieter than anticipated.
At the start of the season, NOAA’s outlook suggested that between 13 and 19 named storms would form in the Atlantic, with as many as nine strengthening into hurricanes and as many as five becoming Category 5 storms, which are the most powerful. The agency revised the outlook slightly in August, predicting that the season would see 13 to 18 named storms, including five to nine hurricanes, two of which could be major.
Of the six named tropical storms that have developed this year before Gabrielle, only one, Chantal, made landfall.
Emily Mae Czachor is a reporter and news editor at CBSNews.com. She typically covers breaking news, extreme weather and issues involving social justice. Emily Mae previously wrote for outlets like the Los Angeles Times, BuzzFeed and Newsweek.
When it comes to warning the public about severe weather like tornadoes, every second counts. Currently, the National Weather Service is using decades-old technology to scan the skies. Dave Malkoff reports on why a new system has run into severe headwinds.
A mapping tool that aims to provide forecasters and communities with flooding information has expanded to cover 60% of the U.S. population, the National Weather Service announced Thursday. With this development, the experimental tool promises to serve twice as many Americans as it did before.
The Flood Inundation Mapping, or FIM, tool is designed to show Google Earth-like visualizations of flood waters as they are either impacting, or forecasted to impact, neighborhoods across the country, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA. NOAA is the federal parent agency of the Weather Service, which is a primary source of weather forecasts during emergencies, including floods.
The interactive, online tool allows people to learn more about flood forecasts or observations that could affect them, by exploring their regions, cities or neighborhoods. NOAA said the mapping interface updates almost in real time, which will support Weather Service forecasters in issuing flood watches and warnings.
Some local forecast offices have already had access to the tool for two years, while others have had access for one year, depending on where they are. When it launched in 2023, the tool offered flooding information for about 10% of the U.S. population, and it expanded to include 30% last September, according to NOAA.
On social media Wednesday, NOAA and the Weather Service shared a simulated image generated by the tool, which showed possible flooding along the Tug Fork River in Warfield, Kentucky, in February.
NOAA
“Local emergency teams used those maps to deploy the National Guard with high-water vehicles to affected neighborhoods where they evacuated all the residents before water entered their apartments,” the agencies said.
Originally, the mapping feature was accessible to forecasting offices in parts of Louisiana, New York, Pennsylvania and Texas, and it later grew to include much larger parts of the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Mississippi Valley and Pacific Northwest regions. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands were also covered.
The latest expansion means forecasters can use the map’s services in the Great Plains, interior Southeast, Southwest and West Coast. It now covers Hawaii and parts of Alaska, too, including the Cook Inlet, Kenai Peninsula, Copper River and Prince William Sound, where flooding can be especially severe.
The Flood Inundation Mapping tool now extends from the Northeast to Gulf Coast and across much of the Midwest, along the West Coast, and across Hawaii, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and parts of south-central Alaska.
NOAA
“Flooding is the most frequent severe weather-related threat, and our costliest natural disaster,” said David Vallee of NOAA’s National Water Center, in a statement. “Expanding our FIM availability has been a game-changer in providing actionable, real-time information to emergency and water resource managers, and will expand the delivery of impact-based decision support services to our core partners who work to keep Americans safe and informed.”
The mapping tool will be fully activated across the U.S. next year, NOAA said, adding that it will include 110,000 river miles near the Weather Service’s river forecast centers, which handle predictions in different regions. It will also cover more than 3.6 million miles of rivers being monitored for the National Water Model, a massive simulation that uses real data to help forecasters make predictions about the flow of rivers and streams throughout the U.S.
Sharpening communications between forecasters, emergency managers and first responders during weather emergencies, like the catastrophic floods that struck Texas in July, is a subject of national concern, particularly at the peak of the current hurricane season.
CBS News has reached out to NOAA for more information.
Emily Mae Czachor is a reporter and news editor at CBSNews.com. She typically covers breaking news, extreme weather and issues involving social justice. Emily Mae previously wrote for outlets like the Los Angeles Times, BuzzFeed and Newsweek.
New data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has scientists ringing alarm bells about the health of the world’s oceans. Seventy-seven percent of the world’s coral reefs have experienced “bleaching-level heat stress” over the last 22 months. Derek Manzello, coordinator of NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch program, joins CBS News to dive deeper into the research.
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IT WAS PUSHED BACK THIS MONTH ALL NEW AT 6 – HISTORY MADE IN GEORGIA TODAY … AS THE STATE MARKED ITS LARGEST – SEA – TURTLE – RELEASE … ON RECORD. WJCL 22 NEWS BROOKE BUTLER … WAS THERE. SHE TELLS US … HOW THIS ALL CAME TOGETHER.// (NAT – CLAPPING – PEOPLE SAYING GOODBYE) IT WAS ALL SMILES ON JEKYLL ISLAND WEDNESDAY – AS A RECORD BREAKING NUMBER OF REHABILITATED SEA TURTLES – WERE RELEASED BACK INTO THE OCEAN :23 WE ACTUALLY HAD 33 KEMPS AND ONE GREEN SEA TURTLE RELEASED TODAY OFF OF JEKYLL ISLAND. :30 THESE ENDANGERED TURTLES – ALL CAME FROM UP NORTH. THE ORGANIZATION – TURTLES FLY TOO – FLEW THEM IN. :20 SO WE FLEW FROM OUR HOME BASE IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO MASSACHUSETTS TO PICK THE TURTLES UP FROM THE TEAM AT THE NEW ENGLAND AQUARIUM. :28 1:53 HOW DOES IT FEEL TO BE DOING THESE RELEASES TOGETHER AS FATHER AND SON? 1:56 1:56 THAT’S IT’S DEFINITELY IT’S VERY COOL. 1:59 (BROOKE STANDUP) I’M TOLD THERE ARE A NUMBER OF REASONS WHY RESCUE ORGANIZATIONS CHOSE JEKYLL ISLAND… AS THE LOCATION FOR THIS RELEASE. 1:15 I THINK IT’S REALLY NICE. IT’S CONVENIENT. OBVIOUSLY, WE HAVE AN AIRPORT ON THE ISLAND, BUT OUR FACILITY, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE A GREAT PARTNERSHIP WITH TURTLES FLY TO AND THESE OTHER FACILITIES UP IN THE NEW ENGLAND AREA, UP IN THE NORTHERN STATES THAT WE ALL BAND TOGETHER AND, YOU KNOW, HELP THESE ANIMALS IN NEED. 1:30 RACHEL OVERMEYER WITH GEORGIA SEA TURTLE CENTER SAID – ALL OF THESE TURTLES..WERE COLD STUNNED WHEN THEY WERE RESCUED. THEIR RELEASE INTO GEORGIA WATERS… ENSURING THEY’LL STAY AT A COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE. 1:34 OUR WATERS ARE JUST NOW WARM ENOUGH THAT WE CAN RELEASE ANIMALS. 1:38 OVERMEYER SAYS – WHILE SHE’S TAKEN PART IN A NUMBER OF RELEASES OVER THE YEARS – THE WORK – NEVER GETS OLD. 1:55 RELEASES ARE JUST SO SPECIAL BECAUSE IT’S WHAT WE PUT OUR BLOOD, SWEAT AND TEARS INTO. AND IT’S WHAT WE WHAT WE DO EVERY DAY IS WHAT WE WORK FOR. SO TO BE ABLE TO SEE THEM RELEASED IS IS REALLY EXCITING. 2:06 BROOKE BUTLER… WJCL 22 NEWS. OUT:”THAT ONE
Sea turtle strandings have ticked up at an alarming rate in New England, but now the reptiles are close to receiving a lifeline from Congress to help them stay in the water.Related video above: ‘Really exciting’: 34 rehabilitated sea turtles released back into the ocean on Jekyll IslandCongress is nearing passage of the Sea Turtle Rescue Assistance and Rehabilitation Act, which would create a new $33 million federal grant program to fund institutions around the country that rescue, rehabilitate and research stranded turtles. The aid would arrive as scientists and federal authorities are sounding the alarm that an increasing number of cold-stunned turtles are washing up on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, likely as a result of climate change.Less than 50 sea turtles were found stranded on Cape Cod in 2000, but by 2022, that number has ballooned to 866, said Democratic Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts. Quick action is needed to help the turtles because all six species of sea turtles found in the U.S. are threatened or endangered, Markey said.Turtles face “extinction and environmental wipeout” without assistance, said Markey, the sponsor of the act.”Our current rescue efforts are largely volunteer and underfunded, forcing our aquariums to shell out to keep our shelled friends safe,” he said. “We will not let these rescue and rehabilitation organizations, much less sea turtles, sink.”The annual average number of cold-stunned turtles in Massachusetts has also increased over time. Two decades ago, it was 139, and in the past five years it has increased to 739, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in June.The sea turtle act was placed on the Senate’s calendar after unanimously passing the commerce, science and transportation committee on July 31, records state. A similar measure, introduced by Democratic Rep. Bill Keating of Massachusetts, passed the House of Representatives earlier in the year.Both proposals have bipartisan support, and the Senate measure is cosponsored by Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas.Sea turtles sometimes become cold-stunned because they’re unable to regulate their body temperatures. In recent years, hundreds of those turtles have become stranded in Massachusetts. The New England Aquarium operates a Sea Turtle Hospital in Quincy, Massachusetts, that treats the animals, who sometimes need months of care before they can be rereleased into the marine environment.Providing more assistance to organizations that care for stranded turtles “would have a significant impact on the continuation of this collaborative conservation work and the resulting research to solve ocean challenges,” said Vikki Spruill, president and CEO of the New England Aquarium, in support of the proposal last year.
PORTLAND, Maine —
Sea turtle strandings have ticked up at an alarming rate in New England, but now the reptiles are close to receiving a lifeline from Congress to help them stay in the water.
Related video above: ‘Really exciting’: 34 rehabilitated sea turtles released back into the ocean on Jekyll Island
Congress is nearing passage of the Sea Turtle Rescue Assistance and Rehabilitation Act, which would create a new $33 million federal grant program to fund institutions around the country that rescue, rehabilitate and research stranded turtles. The aid would arrive as scientists and federal authorities are sounding the alarm that an increasing number of cold-stunned turtles are washing up on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, likely as a result of climate change.
Less than 50 sea turtles were found stranded on Cape Cod in 2000, but by 2022, that number has ballooned to 866, said Democratic Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts. Quick action is needed to help the turtles because all six species of sea turtles found in the U.S. are threatened or endangered, Markey said.
Turtles face “extinction and environmental wipeout” without assistance, said Markey, the sponsor of the act.
“Our current rescue efforts are largely volunteer and underfunded, forcing our aquariums to shell out to keep our shelled friends safe,” he said. “We will not let these rescue and rehabilitation organizations, much less sea turtles, sink.”
The annual average number of cold-stunned turtles in Massachusetts has also increased over time. Two decades ago, it was 139, and in the past five years it has increased to 739, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in June.
The sea turtle act was placed on the Senate’s calendar after unanimously passing the commerce, science and transportation committee on July 31, records state. A similar measure, introduced by Democratic Rep. Bill Keating of Massachusetts, passed the House of Representatives earlier in the year.
Both proposals have bipartisan support, and the Senate measure is cosponsored by Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas.
Sea turtles sometimes become cold-stunned because they’re unable to regulate their body temperatures. In recent years, hundreds of those turtles have become stranded in Massachusetts. The New England Aquarium operates a Sea Turtle Hospital in Quincy, Massachusetts, that treats the animals, who sometimes need months of care before they can be rereleased into the marine environment.
Providing more assistance to organizations that care for stranded turtles “would have a significant impact on the continuation of this collaborative conservation work and the resulting research to solve ocean challenges,” said Vikki Spruill, president and CEO of the New England Aquarium, in support of the proposal last year.
For skywatchers and wannabe Aurora (Northern lights) chasers, space weather conditions are currently predicted to be favorable Monday night.
Monday, July 29, 2024’s sun imaged with a telescope and solar filter. (WTOP/Greg Redfern)
Monday, July 29, 2024’s sun imaged with a telescope and solar filter. (WTOP/Greg Redfern)
Here we go again.
For skywatchers and wannabe Northern Lights chasers, space weather conditions are currently predicted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to be favorable Monday night.
The current predicted line of visibility on the northern horizon is in the lower part of Pennsylvania. That is close enough to make it worth the D.C. area taking a look. I expect this forecast will change as the day goes on, since space weather conditions are still developing. SWPC will issue updates as they are warranted.
Geomagnetic storm watches are out Monday to Wednesday due to a number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) — large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the sun’s corona in the outermost part of the sun’s atmosphere, according to NOAA.
Solar activity was elevated through the weekend and various events, including solar flares and filament eruptions associated with CMEs, NOAA SWPC said. Some CMEs could arrive Tuesday and into Wednesday. NOAA said the ones that arrived Monday could result in G1 or minor storm levels, but most of the activity will liley take place on Tuesday, when CMEs from Saturday and Sunday arrive.
“This could lead to G2-G3 levels as indicated by the WSA-Enlil model,” NOAA SWPC said, with more continuing into Wednesday.
This geomagnetic storm and associated aurora event are not predicted to reach the historic levels, such as the last one on May 10. It’s far more likely that we could experience an event like in March, which involved a similar G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm. NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found online.
The best bet is to monitor WTOP Weather for sky conditions, and the NOAA, plus other space-related social media sites, including EarthSky.org,space.com and space weather physicist Tamitha Skov’s X for updates. It will be worth taking a look to the north from a dark sky site with a clear horizon. You might be able to detect some color in the sky if aurora are present but they would likely be low on the northern horizon. Wide field binoculars will help your search.
Use a camera or smartphone that can take exposures of several seconds — including using “night sky” or “low light” settings if your camera has them — of the northern horizon. Steady the camera or use a tripod for best image results. The camera may capture aurora that your eyes did not.
The D.C. area had several aurora events visible in 2023, including in March and November. And the area is on a roll for 2024, with more coming in all probability.
I check spaceweather.com every day just as I do my local weather. The site has a daily snapshot of what the space weather in the solar system is going to be like and a current image of the sun.
Monday’s posting explains what happened on the sun the past few days to cause the current space weather. My image of Monday’s sun shows a lot of sunspots.
With terrestrial weather being such a factor in the daily lives here in the D.C. region, and frankly the rest of the world, space weather has a direct effect, and can produce a variety of events, including Monday’s geomagnetic storm and the aurora.
Space weather, like terrestrial weather, is caused by Earth’s interaction with the sun. While giving warmth and energy every day, what many people may not know is that it undergoes an 11-year solar cycle that can affect space weather throughout the solar system.
The sun is a 4.5-billion-year-old star that humans have been monitoring since the time of Galileo. Currently, humans have a fleet of spacecraft that monitor the sun and space weather 24 hours, 7 days a week, 365 days a year.
The sun is currently in Solar Cycle 25 and is at Solar Maximum. At Solar Maximum, the sun produces more sunspots and solar events, which produce space weather events like Monday’s level G3 geomagnetic storm. In fact, solar researches believe the sun is already starting Solar Cycle 26.
The sun had an episode of disturbed behavior centuries ago. On Sept. 1, 1859, the sun experienced a solar storm episode that was observed by solar astronomer Richard Carrington and ended up bearing his name: “The Carrington Event.” This was a watershed event in solar astronomy and the sun’s effects on the Earth, unlike anything that’s happened since.
You listen to WTOP for “traffic and weather together on the 8s.” Maybe now you will want to include a check on space weather, too, as part of your daily weather routine.
Follow Greg Redfern on Facebook, X and his daily blog to keep up with the latest news in astronomy and space exploration.
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The giant solar explosions of energy and light aren’t over yet. Officials said on Tuesday that the sun just emitted another major solar flare – and that it’s the strongest one so far in the current solar cycle.
The latest flare peaked just before 1 p.m. ET, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center said, with an X-class rating of X8.7. X-class solar flares are the strongest of solar flares, which are described by NASA as “giant explosions on the sun that send energy, light and high speed particles into space.” The center said the flare was an R3 or “strong” flare, meaning it could have caused wide area blackouts of high-frequency radio communications for about an hour on the sunlit side of Earth. It also may have caused low-frequency navigation signal issues for the same period of time.
“Flares of this magnitude are not frequent,” the center said in its update, also posting on social media, “Region 3664 not done yet!”
The flare came out of the sunspot dubbed 3664. That spot, combined with region 3663, makes up a cluster “much larger than Earth,” NOAA said last week. And as of last Thursday, 3664 was only continuing “to grow and increase in magnetic complexity and has evolved into a higher threat of increased solar flare risk.”
Two other flares – rated X1.7 and X1.2 – also erupted shortly before, although they were also not anticipated to be linked to any major impacts on Earth.
Despite the intensity of the flare, officials said there is not yet concern of a coronal mass ejection, or large burst of solar plasma and magnetic field. Those CMEs are what lead to geomagnetic storms like the rare extreme storm that occurred over the weekend, sending the northern lights to far lower latitudes than normal and causing chaos for GPS systems that farmers rely on at the height of planting season.
“Due to its location, any CME associated with this flare will likely not have any geomagnetic impacts on Earth,” the Space Weather Prediction Center said.
Earth is currently in Solar Cycle 25, which began in 2020. The last cycle maintained an average length of 11 years and was the weakest solar cycle to occur in a century, the National Weather Service said. Although the current cycle has been forecast to be fairly weak and similar to the one prior, NOAA officials saw “a steady increase in sunspot activity” from the get-go.
“While we are not predicting a particularly active Solar Cycle 25, violent eruptions from the Sun can occur at any time,” Doug Biesecker, a solar physicist at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, said in 2020.
A member of one of the world’s largest whale species was found washed up on an Oregon shore this week, emaciated, entangled and covered in what appears to be wounds from another whale species. The 46-foot-long fin whale, which was dead when discovered, is one of roughly 11,000 species members in the region.
NOAA Fisheries West Coast first announced the stranding at Sunset Beach State Park near the Washington border on Monday, showing the whale washed up on shore with what appears to be a thick rope wrapped around the top of its mouth.
An endangered fin whale was found washed up on Oregon’s shore in February, with officials saying it was emaciated and entangled.
NOAA Fisheries West Coast/Seaside Aquarium, MMHSRP #24359
Officials conducted a necropsy on the subadult male whale and found that it was “thin and emaciated” and “likely died from an underlying illness.” The necropsy team is working to identify an illness that could have resulted in its death, but physically, it appeared as though the animal had come across other issues before washing ashore.
“The whale came ashore entangled,” NOAA said, saying the entanglement “appeared to be fresh and superficial.” “The team also recorded wounds from killer whales, called ‘rake marks.’”
Rake marks are when killer whales, or orcas, use their teeth to wound other animals, according to the Center for Whale Research. The behavior is thought to be a form of either rough play or aggression, although the center says that some rake marks “can be severe and penetrate deep into the flesh.”
More information from the pathology report is expected within a few weeks, NOAA said.
According to NOAA’s latest population stock assessment, there are roughly 11,000 fin whales in the waters of the Pacific Northwest region. Fishing equipment entanglements and vessel strikes are among the biggest threats to that population.
The endangered species is a form of baleen whale, meaning their mouths are filled with keratin-based baleen rather than teeth, allowing them to filter small prey from the water. They can live nearly a century, growing to be up to 85 feet long and 80 tons.
Another atmospheric river is soaking California with historic amounts of rain and flooding. CBS News senior national and environmental correspondent Ben Tracy joins to explain how climate change is affecting these devastating and often deadly storms.
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Forecasters say there could be months still to go before the culmination of El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by higher sea surface temperatures and precipitation across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can affect weather across the globe.
The warm phase of an oscillating cycle that recurs every few years, El Niño officially arrived in June, and at the time scientists anticipated that the phenomenon would likely continue into the latter part of 2023. Now, in an updated outlook released Thursday by the National Weather Service’s Climate Predication Center, forecasters said there was an 80% chance that El Niño would persist into the Northern Hemisphere’s spring season and linger until May of next year.
There is also a high probability that El Niño will become stronger than usual as it finishes out its current run, which could mean its mark on winter temperatures as well as rain and snow patterns around the world may be more evident, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
El Niño causes the Pacific jet stream to move south and spread further east. During winter, this leads to wetter conditions than usual in the Southern U.S. and warmer and drier conditions in the North.
NOAA
El Niño is one half of the alternating El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle, a shifting system of contrasting climate phenomena dictated by trade wind patterns and their resulting effects on sea surface temperature in a block of the equatorial Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii. El Niño replaces its inverse, La Niña, the cycle’s colder stretch. Both phases of ENSO are defined by sea surface temperatures and precipitation in that section of the Pacific that depart from what is considered the neutral norm. An increase in temperatures and precipitation levels corresponds with El Niño, and the opposite is true for its counterpart.
The extent to which El Niño affects global weather patterns depends on its strength. The warmer ENSO phase has intermittently disrupted marine ecosystems and can wield significant influence over the weather in the United States, where El Niño is typically associated with wetter conditions along the Gulf Coast and in the Southeast that sometimes cause serious flooding. This phase of the climate cycle generally brings warmer and dryer weather to northern parts of the U.S. as well as Canada.
So far in 2023, El Niño’s effects on the U.S. climate have not unfolded exactly as its past activity might suggest.
Last July marked the fourth consecutive month of record-high global ocean surface temperatures, and it also had the highest monthly sea surface temperature anomaly in NOAA’s 174-year record, the agency said, acknowledging that all of that could be related to the characteristic warmth seen in El Niño.
But the atmospheric conditions normally created by this phase, which tend to help decrease tropical activity during Atlantic hurricane season, developed slower than anticipated. Hurricane season lasts annually from June until November, and this one was more active than normal, even though it is usually La Niña that corresponds with increased hurricanes in the U.S.
“Depending on its strength, El Nino can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center, in a statement announcing El Niño’s impending arrival earlier this year.
“Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Niño,” said L’Heureux. “For example, El Niño could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Niño.”
The effects of El Niño usually strengthen heading into the fall and winter seasons, scientists say, so the next few months could bring increased rainfall and snow to certain places as long as the climate pattern remains in place. How its true effects will take shape may be somewhat unpredictable, according to NOAA, which noted that changing global climate “means this El Niño is operating in a different world than earlier El Niño events.”
Hurricane Lidia made landfall along the Pacific Coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday as a Category 4 hurricane before weakening, threatening a stretch of the west-central shoreline home to Puerto Vallarta, a resort town and popular tourist destination in the Mexican state of Jalisco. Its arrival came on the heels of Tropical Storm Max, which hit the southern coast of Mexico on Monday, several hundred miles from Jalisco, before tapering off.
The storm system was about 30 miles east of Puerto Vallarta at 10 p.m. Central Time, according to the National Hurricane Center. Lidia was packing maximum sustained winds of 105 miles per hour, classifying it as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, which rates potential property damage.
Jalisco and Nayarit states reported downed trees and power lines, as well as landslides over some highways in the region, according to the Associated Press. Jalisco Gov. Enrique Alfaro said on social media that there were no reports of injuries or deaths so far.
6 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 10 Update: Extremely dangerous category 4 Hurricane Lidia makes landfall in west-central Mexico. Life-threatening winds and flooding rainfall spreading inland over west-central Mexico. Full information: https://t.co/eTBstnP4rTpic.twitter.com/DE3hFu1rlu
Lidia had become more powerful over the course of the day, growing in strength since 9 a.m. CT when it carried maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and at the time was categorized as a Category 2 hurricane. A storm falls within Category 2 when its maximum sustained winds are stronger than 96 mph but do not exceed 110 mph, and shifts to Category 3 when wind speeds are between 111 mph and 129 mph. Any hurricane classified as a Category 3 storm or above — the system ranks storms through Category 5 — is considered a major hurricane.
In its latest advisory, the hurricane center said that “life-threatening winds and flooding rainfall continue to spread over west-central Mexico.”
However, the hurricane center added that “rapid weakening” was expected into Wednesday as the hurricane moved inland.
The projected path of Hurricane Lidia. Oct. 10, 2023.
NOAA / National Weather Service
The hurricane was expected to bring as much as 12 inches of rain to parts of the Mexican states of Nayarit, Sinaloa and coastal Jalisco, likely causing flash flooding and urban flooding as well as possible mudslides in sections of the coast with higher terrain.
“Apart from the strong winds, Lidia can produce a lot of rain,” Albert Martinez, a meteorologist at The Weather Channel en Español, told CBS News in an email. “This big amount of rain can produce flash floods along Sierra Madre with some mudslides in higher terrains. It’s important to avoid creeks and rivers because they can grow very quickly.”
Martinez noted that Puerto Vallarta will experience heavy rain and flooding in addition to strong hurricane winds.
Hurricane-force winds extended up to 30 miles from the center of the storm, and tropical storm-force winds were extending up to 140 miles from Lidia, according to the hurricane center. Martinez said a wide stretch of land between Nayarit and Colima “will experience a lot of rain, floods and strong winds.”
The hurricane center warned that “a dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall,” and noted that the surge will accompany “large and dangerous waves” near the coast. Life-threatening surf and rip currents linked to Lidia are also expected along the western coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula.
The Mexican government expanded its hurricane warning Tuesday morning to include a wider section of the Pacific Coast, extending some 350 miles to Manzanillo, in the state of Colima, and El Roblito, in Nayarit, which bookend the seaside city of Puerto Vallarta. Tropical storm warnings were put in place for parts of Baja California Sur, including Punta San Telmo extended south from Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo.
By Tuesday night, a hurricane warning remained in effect for Manzanillo to San Blas in Nayarit, while a tropical storm warning remained in place for Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.
However, a hurricane warning for Las Islas Marías, an archipelago about 60 miles off of Nayarit and 200 miles southeast of the tip of Baja California, had been canceled.
As Lidia accelerated on its path toward land early Tuesday, the hurricane center anticipated that the storm would continue to strengthen because its development over the Pacific coincides with “very warm” sea surface temperatures as well as an upper-level wind pattern that can play a role in the dynamics of a hurricane.
Although parts of Lidia’s landfall area are not densely populated, the hurricane’s track raised concerns about Puerto Vallarta, a city known for its beaches that has gained international popularity as a hub for tourism and a frequented spring break vacation spot for Americans. The U.S. State Department urged travelers to “reconsider” visiting Puerto Vallarta earlier this year, saying “violent crime and gang activity are common.” Not long after, the Treasury Department announced sanctions against members or associates of the Jalisco drug cartel, who allegedly targeted elderly Americans in a timeshare fraud scam that focused on Puerto Vallarta.
Idalia strengthened into an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday but then weakened slightly back to a Category 3. Still, it was bringing a “catastrophic” storm surge and “destructive” winds as it headed for landfall in the morning along Florida’s Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center warned.
Its path is expected to impact a wide central portion of the state, including cities such as Tampa and Orlando, before moving along the Georgia and Carolina coastline Wednesday into Thursday.
Hurricane Idalia ever-so-close to making landfall over the Florida Panhandle early on August 30, 2023.
National Hurricane Center / NOAA
When is Hurricane Idalia expected to make landfall?
Idalia is expected to reach land along the Gulf Coast of Florida early Wednesday, likely in the Big Bend area, with hurricane conditions extending along the coast.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a briefing that people living along Florida’s Gulf Coast should prepare for “major impacts” from the oncoming storm.
At a briefing Tuesday evening, DeSantis urged people to leave immediately if they are in an evacuation zone.
“If you stay hunkered down tonight, it’s going to be too nasty tomorrow morning to be able to do it,” he said.
“If you do choose to stay in one of the evacuation zones, first responders will not be able to get you until after the storm has passed.”
Hurricane Idalia’s location and warnings
Idalia was moving toward the Florida coast from the Gulf of Mexico. As the storm intensified, meteorologists warned that it could bring “catastrophic” storm surge and “destructive winds” to the Big Bend region as it moved over land.
The hurricane center said that, “After landfall, Idalia is forecast to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late today (Wednesday) and Thursday.”
“While Idalia should weaken after landfall,” the center continued, “it is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today. Idalia should emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Thursday and move eastward through late week.”
As of 5 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Idalia’s center was approximately 60 miles west of Cedar Key, Fla. and 90 miles south of Tallahassee. The storm was moving north-northeast at 18 mph with maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour, the threshold for a major Category 4, according to the hurricane center.
A storm must have maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph for it to be classified as a hurricane. Once wind speeds reach 111 mph, the hurricane becomes a Category 3 and is considered a major storm.
On Facebook early Wednesday, Cedar Key resident Michael Presley Bobbitt posted video of water coming up to his home and said, “The water just keeps coming. Pray for Cedar Key.”
CBS News senior weather and climate producer David Parkinson noted Tuesday that current estimates suggest the storm could arrive on Wednesday by 11 a.m. EDT. He said the massive storm surge expected to accompany Idalia’s arrival on land “is the primary threat with this storm.”
“There is likely a level of people being caught off guard farther south as the storm is just skirting by,” he said. “The storm surge may go as far as US19 inland, so there’s a lot of area covered by that, even if the coast isn’t populated like near Naples. No one alive in these areas has seen flooding this bad there if it hits max potential.”
Forecasters have put communities under a range of severe weather advisories, from hurricane and tropical storm warnings and watches to storm surge warnings and watches.
Hurricane warnings were extended up the East Coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. A storm surge warning was extended to the stretch from St. Catherine’s Sound, Georgia to the South Santee River in South Carolina.
Previously, hurricane warnings were in effect from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, Fla., including Tampa Bay and a storm surge warning was issued from Englewood north to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
The hurricane center says the storm surge could get as high as 16 feet in the area from the Wakulla/Jefferson County line in Florida Yankeetown, Fla. and as high as 6 feet in Tampa Bay.
At a Thursday morning briefing as Idalia bore down on Florida, DeSantis said water the deep is “life-threatening.”
He urged people to “hunker down” if they’re indoors,” stressing that Idalia is a “big, big deal” and “very dangerous.”
DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 49 counties and the state mobilized more than 5,500 National Guard members to respond to the storm. Between 30,000 and 40,000 electricity workers would be on hand to restore power after the storm hits, the governor said.
Evacuation orders or recommendations were posted in 28 counties and dozens of school districts across Florida had suspended classes.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Franklin, to the east over the Atlantic, was churning on a track that’s expected to keep it off the East Coast.
It was a major Category 3 hurricane early Wednesday packing 115 mph sustained winds and bringing “life-threatening surf and rip currents” along the East Coast and was forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda starting later on Wednesday, the hurricane center said.
Meteorologists rate hurricanes according to the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, categorizing storms that fall within Categories 3, 4 or 5 as “major” hurricanes capable of causing “significant loss of life and damage,” according to the National Hurricane Center. The categories are based on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speeds.
Where is Hurricane Idalia going to hit?
Florida’s Gulf Coast is in Idalia’s sights, putting communities at risk in central parts of the state and up through the Panhandle.
With hurricane preparations underway, DeSantis urged people living in low-lying coastal areas along the Gulf, many of whom are under evacuation notices ahead of Idalia’s anticipated arrival, to move to higher ground until the storm passes.
“You run from the water and you hide from the wind. If you’re there in that storm surge, you’re putting your life in jeopardy when it gets to be that high,” the governor said.
Map shows the forecast for dangerous storm surge from Hurricane Idalia in Florida, as of Tuesday, Aug. 29, 2023.
NOAA/National Weather Service
A major hurricane has never entered the Apalachee Bay, located just south of Tallahassee where the Florida peninsula meets the mainland U.S., said the city’s National Weather Service branch, which called the potential arrival of Idalia “unprecedented” and warned that hurricane “preparations need to be rushed to completion by sunset” on Tuesday.
Conditions were expected to “rapidly deteriorate” after that, the weather service said.
“Hurricane Idalia will likely be an unprecedented event for many locations in the Florida Big Bend. Looking back through recorded history, NO major hurricanes have ever moved through the Apalachee Bay. When you try to compare this storm to others, DON’T. No one has seen this,” reads a message posed to the front page of the website for NWS Tallahassee.
As Idalia intensified Tuesday, DeSantis told Florida residents: “There’s a huge number of counties that are going to feel impacts from this.” He referenced updated computer models from the National Hurricane Center that indicated the storm could impact inland areas as well, including Columbia County and Madison County, which sit near Florida’s border with Georgia, between Tallahassee and Jacksonville.
Earlier, the National Weather Service warned, “The risk continues to increase for life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as late Tuesday.”
As the agency noted, storm surge watches and hurricane watches were in effect for large portions of the Gulf Coast of Florida.
Storm surge could reach up to 12 feet or 15 feet for much of northwestern Florida and into the panhandle, meteorologists warned, while coastal areas as far south as Cape Sable, in the Everglades, and the Florida Keys could see storm surges of up to 2 or 3 feet above ground level.
Storm surge is a rise in water levels caused by hurricane-force winds that push water toward shore and over areas of land that are normally dry, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This phenomenon is considered the greatest threat to life during a hurricane.
Forecasters also warned that “areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.”
Tropical storm warnings were issued for areas stretching from the Altamaha Sound in Georgia to the South Santee River in South Carolina as of 11 a.m. on Tuesday. A tropical storm watch was in effect for much of the Carolina coast, from the South Santee River up to Surf City in North Carolina.
8/28 10am CDT: There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation from #Idalia along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect, including Tampa Bay & the Big Bend. Residents in these areas should follow advice from local officials. pic.twitter.com/t0s8WghUJu
A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the boundaries of the warning area, while a hurricane watch means those conditions are possible, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters are urging people in areas under hurricane warnings to prepare for the onset of conditions within the next 12 to 24 hours. People living in areas placed under storm surge watches should prepare for the “possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline” over the next 48 hours, the hurricane center said.
There is a possibility of strong and potentially damaging wind gusts from Idalia that could “extend well eastward from the storm’s center” once it makes landfall in Florida, the weather service said. Meteorologists added that torrential downpours could also happen in eastern parts of the state, which may be subject to increasing tornado threats as well.
Map of Hurricane Idalia’s projected path
Meteorologists are forecasting a northeastern path for Idalia as it intensifies, tracking over the Gulf of Mexico toward the northwest coast of Florida throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday.
After making landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast, Idalia is expected to continue across northern Florida and coastal Georgia and the Carolinas on Wednesday and Thursday, decreasing in strength as it travels.
NOAA / NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Will Idalia and Franklin hit Florida at the same time?
Hurricane Franklin is not expected to hit Florida, but it will cause rough surf conditions and rip currents. Officials haven’t issued any forecasts suggesting that Franklin will make landfall anywhere along the East Coast.
Satellite image shows Hurricane Idalia, center, and Hurricane Franklin, right, on August 29, 2023.
NOAA
As Idalia approaches, the National Weather Service has issued tropical storm watches and warnings for parts of eastern central Florida, including Orlando, where residents have been urged to prepare for “local tropical storm conditions by Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
An incoming “long-period swell” in the Atlantic caused by Hurricane Franklin will make the coast susceptible to “high seas, rough surf, an increase in life-threatening rip currents, and beach erosion during high tides during Tuesday and Wednesday,” according to the hurricane center.
Hurricane Idalia is gaining strength as it moves toward Florida, where residents are scrambling to prepare for the impacts of what is forecast to be a major storm. Idalia is expected to grow into an extremely dangerous hurricane before it makes landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“Life-threatening” storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected along parts of the Gulf Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday, the hurricane center said.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency covering 46 counties. Evacuation notices have been issued in 22 counties, with mandatory orders in effect for some people in eight of them, The Associated Press reports.
“You still have time this morning to make your final preparations,” DeSantis said, “but you gotta do that now.”
“You do not have to leave the state. You don’t have to drive hundreds of miles,” he said. “You have to get to higher ground in a safe structure. You can ride the storm out there, then go back to your home.”
Idalia is expected to make landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida on Wednesday, likely centered in the Big Bend area, with hurricane conditions extending along the coast.
The storm could arrive on Wednesday morning between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m. ET, CBS News senior weather and climate producer David Parkinson said.
Hurricane maps show the projected path of the storm and its impacts.
NOAA / National Weather Service
NOAA / National Weather Service
What category of storm will Hurricane Idalia be?
Hurricane Idalia is forecast to strengthen into at least a Category 3 hurricane.
“This is going to be a major impact,” DeSantis said at a news conference Monday. “And Floridians should expect that this storm will be a major Cat 3+ hurricane, so please prepare accordingly.”
Category 3 storms have sustained wind speeds of 111-129 mph and are expected to produce devastating damage, including downed trees, major damage to homes and days- or weeks-long cuts to electricity and water, the hurricane center says.
A Category 3 storm — like a Category 4 or 5 — is considered a “major” hurricane due to the potential for “significant loss of life and damage,” the National Hurricane Center says.
Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast as the storm is strengthening.
State of emergency in effect
DeSantis expanded a state of emergency to cover 46 Florida counties. He first issued a state of emergency on Saturday for 33 of the state’s 67 counties to ensure communities “have time to prepare for the storm system which could have impacts along the Gulf Coast next week.”
His office said over the weekend the Florida National Guard was mobilizing 1,100 personnel to support areas of the state that are impacted. Additionally, 12 aircraft and 2,400 high wheel vehicles were being mobilized.
“We are taking every precaution ahead of Hurricane Idalia’s landfall tomorrow, and I am taking this additional executive action to ensure state assets are ready to respond,” Kemp said Tuesday in a news release.
Parts of Florida’s west coast and the Florida Panhandle — as well as southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas — could see up to 8 inches of rainfall from Tuesday through Thursday, with up to 12 inches possible mostly in areas near where the storm makes landfall, the National Hurricane Center says. That could lead to flash and urban flooding, “some of which may be locally significant.”
Storm surge is also expected. The water level could reach as high as 15 feet in the area between the Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida, if storm surge coincides with high tides. It could reach as high as 11 feet in other areas, and 7 feet in Tampa Bay, according to the hurricane center.
What is storm surge?
Storm surge is “an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm,” according to the National Hurricane Center. As a storm moves toward the coast, water is pushed to the shore and “piles up,” which creates a surge.
If a storm surge and high tide take place at the same time, water levels will be even higher. The combination is known as storm tide.
Storm surge is one of the deadliest hazards of a hurricane. It is also “a very complex phenomenon,” according to the hurricane center,” because it depends on factors including a storm’s wind speeds, size and angle of approach to the coastline, as well as the shape and characteristics of the coast.
A storm surge warning is in effect for Englewood north to Indian Pass, Florida. A storm surge watch is in effect for Chokoloskee to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour, as well as for the mouth of the St. Mary’s River to South Santee River, South Carolina.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which includes five categories based on the storm’s sustained wind speeds. It also estimates possible damage to property, ranging from “some damage” to “catastrophic.”
The 2023 season saw its first major storm in late August, with Hurricane Franklin. The Category 4 hurricane was not forecast to make landfall but was was still expected to cause “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” along the U.S. East Coast. Meanwhile, forecasters said Idalia became a major hurricane on a path to hit Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday, Aug. 30.
What is a “major hurricane?”
If a storm is a Category 3, 4 or 5, it is deemed a “major” hurricane due to the potential for “significant loss of life and damage,” the National Hurricane Center says. Hurricanes that fall into categories 1 or 2 are still considered dangerous, the center says.
What are the categories of hurricanes and what do they mean?
Here is how the scale breaks down, according to the National Hurricane Center, starting with a look at the most powerful:
Category 5
Sustained wind speed of157 mph or higher
“Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months,” the National Hurricane Center says.
Notable storms: There are 39 Category 5 storms on record, including 1992’s Hurricane Andrew, the most destructive storm to ever hit Florida; 2017’s Irma, which devastated Barbuda, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, Anguilla, and the Virgin Islands as a Category 5 before surpassed Andrew as the costliest hurricane to ever hit Florida when it made landfall there as a Category 4; and 1969’s Camille, which brought a peak storm surge of 24 feet and killed more than 250 people after it made landfall in Mississippi.
Category 4
Sustained wind speed of 130-156 mph
“Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
Notable storms:Hurricane Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 storm in Texas and Louisiana in 2017, leaving catastrophic flooding in its wake; 2021’s Hurricane Ida came ashore in Louisiana as a Category 4, where it caused severe flooding, knocked out power to more than a million people and spawned tornadoes as it moved northeast.
Category 3
Sustained wind speed of 111-129 mph
“Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.”
Notable storms: The busy 2020 hurricane season saw late-season Hurricane Zeta strengthen to a Category 3 storm just before making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 storm; 2005’s Hurricane Wilma, which had achieved a peak of Category 5, was a Category 3 when the storm hit Florida.
Category 2
Sustained wind speed of 96-110 mph
“Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.”
Notable storms: Hurricane Floyd made landfall North Carolina in 1999 as a Category 2 storm, causing widespread flooding as it traveled up the coast and leading to the cancellation of schools in New Jersey and New York City; when Hurricane Ike made landfall as a Category 2 storm in Texas in 2008, it had weakened from its peak strength as a Category 4 storm.
Category 1
Sustained wind speed of 74-95 mph
“Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.”
Notable storms:Hurricane Sandy was only a Category 1 storm when the superstorm came ashore in New Jersey in 2012, its storm surge flooding New York City; 2011’s Hurricane Irene was a Category 1 storm when it hit North Carolina, but had weakened to a tropical storm by the time it returned to land in New Jersey, causing widespread flooding there, in New York and as north as Vermont.
Should there be a Category 6?
In the midst of an unusually ferocious string of hurricanes in 2017, there was some speculation about whether storms could hit a Category 6. There is officially no such thing as a Category 6 hurricane. But the idea of revising or adding to the scale has been discussed by some climate scientists who believe the current categories may not be adequate for increasingly extreme storms in the future.
What category was Hurricane Katrina?
Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast in 2005 as a Category X storm, ultimately flooding more than 80% of New Orleans and killing more than 1,200 people — making it one of the deadliest hurricanes to strike the U.S. It is one of the costliest hurricanes in U.S. history, doing more than $75 billion in damage. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida all saw destruction from Katrina.
What category was Hurricane Ian?
Hurricane Ian was a strong Category 4 as it made landfall on Florida’s west coast in 2022. The deadly storm knocked out power to millions. Experts said the storm’s rapid intensification, thanks to warm sea temperatures — and warming seas are linked to climate change, which will likely not only make strong hurricanes occur more frequently, make storms move more slowly and allow them to hold more water, leading to more rain.
