ReportWire

Tag: Money/Currency Markets

  • ‘What. H.A.P.P.E.N….’ — Sam Bankman-Fried’s latest slow roll of tweets spark scorn as well as concern

    ‘What. H.A.P.P.E.N….’ — Sam Bankman-Fried’s latest slow roll of tweets spark scorn as well as concern

    [ad_1]

    The latest message from former FTX chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried left onlookers puzzled and alarmed after the swift decline into bankruptcy for the cryptocurrency exchange he founded.

    In successive tweets, Bankman-Fried’s twitter account merely stated, “What,” followed by capital letters H.A.P.P.E.N., unfurled slowly over the span of about 19 hours.

    Bankman-Fried has been an active tweeter throughout FTX’s demise, earlier having written that he was “shocked to see things unravel the way they did.”

    Twitter and Tesla
    TSLA,
    -2.56%

    CEO Elon Musk, who’s also having some difficulties, tweeted with fire emojis to an attempt at a translation of the cryptic tweet.

    Musk also tweeted his amusement at the claim that Bankman-Fried played a “League of Legends” game — the same game the executive infamously was playing when the venture-capital firm Sequoia invested in FTX. Court filings from Musk’s failed attempt to get out of his Twitter purchase show that he doubted that Bankman-Fried ever had $3 billion liquid to co-invest in Twitter.

    While the broader social-media sentiment was a wish for Bankman-Fried to be jailed, there also was concern for his health.

    FTX has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and over the weekend there also seems to have been a hack of customer funds. The securities regulator in FTX’s headquarters of the Bahamas meanwhile said it had not requested the prioritization for withdrawals of funds for Bahamian clients.

    Reuters reported the allegation Bankman-Fried had a “back door” that allowed him to mask the transfer of customer funds to his Alameda hedge fund, which Bankman-Fried told the news agency was just “confusing internal labeling.”

    The former FTX CEO couldn’t be reached for comment.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Fed’s Waller says market has overreacted to consumer inflation data: ‘We’ve got a long, long way to go’

    Fed’s Waller says market has overreacted to consumer inflation data: ‘We’ve got a long, long way to go’

    [ad_1]

    Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said Sunday that financial markets seem to have overreacted to the softer-than-expected October consumer price inflation data last week.

    “It was just one data point,” Waller said, in a conversation in Sydney, Australia, sponsored by UBS.

    “The market seems to have gotten way out in front over this one CPI report. Everybody should just take a deep breath, calm down. We’ve got a ways to go ” Waller said.

    Investors cheered the soft CPI print, released Thursday, driving stocks up to their best week since June. The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.92%

    closed 5.9% higher for the week.

    The data showed that the yearly rate of consumer inflation fell to 7.7% from 8.2%, marking the lowest level since January. Inflation had peaked at a nearly 41-year high of 9.1% in June.

    Waller said it was good there was some evidence that inflation was coming down, but noted that there were other times over the past year where it looked like inflation was turning lower.

    “We’re going to see a continued run of this kind of behavior and inflation slowly starting to come down, before we really start thinking about taking our foot off the brakes here,” Waller said.

    “We’ve got a long, long way to go to get inflation down. Rates are going keep going up and they are going to stay high for awhile until we see this inflation get down closer to our target,” he added.

    The Fed is focused on how high rates need to get to bring inflation down, and that will depend solely on inflation, he said.

    Waller said “the worst thing” the Fed could do was stop raising rates only to have inflation explode.

    The 7.7% inflation rate seen in October “is enormous,” he added.

    The Fed signaled at its last meeting earlier this month that it might slow down the pace of its rate hikes in coming meetings.

    The central bank has boosted rates by almost 400 basis points since March, including four straight 0.75-percentage-point hikes that had been almost unheard of prior to this year.

    “We’re looking at moving in paces of potentially 50 [basis points] at the next meeting or the next meeting after that,” Waller said.

    The Fed will hold its next meeting on Dec. 13-14, and then again on Jan. 31-Feb. 1.

    At the same time, Powell said the Fed was likely to raise rates above the 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate that they had previously expected.

    “The signal was ‘quit paying attention to the pace and start paying attention to where the endpoint is going to be,’” Waller said.

    In the wake of the CPI report, investors who trade fed funds futures contracts see the Fed’s terminal rate at 5%-5.25% next spring and then quickly falling back to 4.25%-4.5% by November. That’s well below the levels prior to the CPI data.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • FTX bankruptcy is ‘somebody running a company that’s just dumb-as-f___ing greedy,’ says Mark Cuban

    FTX bankruptcy is ‘somebody running a company that’s just dumb-as-f___ing greedy,’ says Mark Cuban

    [ad_1]

    Billionaire Dallas Maverick’s owner Mark Cuban recently offered his perspective on the implosion of crypto platform FTX late this week.

    ‘That’s somebody running a company that’s just dumb-as-fucking greedy.’


    — Mark Cuban

    Cuban, speaking on Friday at a conference in Washington, D.C. hosted by Sports Business Journal, shared the view that avarice was at the root of the downfall of one-time crypto darling Sam Bankman-Fried, whose firm FTX Group just filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy.

    “So what does Sam Bankman [Fried] do, he’s just–‘gimme more, gimme more, gimme more.’ So I’m gonna borrow money, loan it to an affiliated company and hope and pretend to myself that the FTT tokens that are in there on my balance sheet are gonna to sustain their value.”

    Check out: Mark Cuban says buying metaverse real estate is ‘the dumbest shit ever

    FTX’s collapse marks a stunning turnabout for a company, which was once valued at $26 billion, and whose founder, Bankman-Fried was viewed by many in the crypto industry as a venerable actor in the Wild West of digital exchanges.

    On Thursday, the 30-year-old entrepreneur tweeted: “I f—ked up, and should have done better,” referencing the collapse of his exchange.

    Embattled FTX, short billions of dollars, sought bankruptcy protection after the exchange experienced the crypto equivalent of a bank run. FTX, an affiliated hedge fund Alameda Research, and dozens of other related companies also filed a bankruptcy petition in Delaware on Friday morning. Boasting a nearly $16 billion fortune recently, Sam Bankman Fried’s net worth had all but evaporated in the wake of the FTX implosion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

    The price of FTX’s native token FTT went down about 88.8% over the past seven days to around $2.74, according to CoinMarketCap data.

    The U.S. Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission are looking into the crypto exchange to determine whether any criminal activity or securities offenses were committed.

    Regulators and are examining whether FTX used customer deposits to fund bets at Alameda Research, a no-no in traditional markets, according to reports.

    Cuban, who is one of the stars of the investing show “Shark Tank” and owns the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks, is a big investor in crypto and blockchain-related platforms. According to a CNBC report, he has said that 80% of his investments that aren’t on Shark Tank are crypto-centric.

    See: Tom Brady, Steph Curry and Kevin O’Leary set to lose big from FTX bankruptcy filing

    For his part, Cuban is part of a class-action lawsuit accused of misleading investors into signing up for accounts with crypto platform Voyager Digital, which filed for bankruptcy in July. The suit alleges that Cuban touted his support for Voyager and referred to it “as close to risk-free as you’re gonna get in the crypto universe.”

    Cuban mentioned Voyager in his Friday interview. Representatives for the billionaire investor didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

    The Mavericks owner took to Twitter on Saturday to say that the crypto implosions “have been banking blowups. Lending to the wrong entity, misvaluations of collateral, arrogant arbs, followed by depositor runs.”

    Cuban’s net worth is $4.6 billion, according to Forbes.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried: ‘I was shocked to see things unravel the way they did’

    FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried: ‘I was shocked to see things unravel the way they did’

    [ad_1]

    Sam Bankman-Fried, co-founder at crypto exchange FTX, tweeted Friday that he was “shocked to see things unravel the way they did,” after he quit as chief executive and the company and its related entities filed for bankruptcy.

    See: Sam Bankman-Fried resigns as CEO of FTX as cryptocurrency exchange files for Chapter 11 U.S. bankruptcy

    The bankruptcy “doesn’t necessarily have to mean the end for the companies or their ability to provide value and funds to their customers chiefly, and can be consistent with other routes,” Bankman-Fried tweeted Friday.

    Bankman-Fried has seen his net worth plunge to almost zero from $16 billion in less than a week, according to Bloomberg Billionaires index.

    FTX was once the third largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +0.10%

    fell 3.4% Friday to around $16,838, hovering at around a two-year low, according to the CoinDesk data.

    A representative at FTX didn’t respond to a request seeking comment.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Bitcoin falls to 2-year low, other cryptos down after market reacts to FTX bankruptcy news

    Bitcoin falls to 2-year low, other cryptos down after market reacts to FTX bankruptcy news

    [ad_1]

    FTX, the crypto exchange, filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy in a Delaware court on Friday, and chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried has resigned.

    Following the news, here is how prices are doing for major cryptocurrencies, according to CoinDesk data.

    Bitcoin  BTCUSD, -4.92%  The price for Bitcoin was around $19,350 before the announcement of the potential FTX/Binance deal on Tuesday. The price jumped to $20,590 in less than an hour after the announcement. But dropped to a 2-year low of $17,484. Currently, the Bitcoin price is $16,907.19, a change of -5.04% over the past 24 hours.

    Ethereum  ETHE, -9.66% Currently, the Ethereum price is $1,252.60, a change of -6.60% over the last 24 hours. The price of Ethereum was around $1,438 before the announcement, and peaked at $1,562 under an hour after. Later on Nov 8, the price dropped to $1,289.

    FTT: Today the price of FTT, which is the FTX token, is $2.74, down 20.37% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data. At the beginning of the week, on Nov 7, the price was around $22.06.

    Solana: Currently, the price is $17.34, a change of 2.91% over the past 24 hours. The price of Solana before the announcement was around $27.69, and peaked at $31.29 shortly after the announcement.

    Binance Coin: The Binance Coin price is $285.74, a change of -7.02% over the past 24 hours. The Binance Coin price was around $322 before the announcement that Binance might acquire FTX on Nov 8.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Crypto lender BlockFi pauses withdrawals in wake of FTX’s collapse

    Crypto lender BlockFi pauses withdrawals in wake of FTX’s collapse

    [ad_1]

    Crypto lending platform BlockFi announced it was halting withdrawals Thursday night in the wake of the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.

    “We are shocked and dismayed by the news regarding FTX and Alameda,” BlockFi said in a tweet. “We, like the rest of the world, found out about this situation through Twitter.”

    BlockFi said that due to the “lack of clarity” regarding FTX and Alameda, “we are not able to operate business as usual,” and that until there is “further clarity, we are limiting platform activity, including pausing client withdrawals.”

    The company asked clients not to deposit into BlockFi Wallet or Interest Accounts at this time, and said it will share more specifics “as soon as possible,” though it warned it likely would communicate “less frequently” than what its clients and stakeholders are used to.

    In June, BlockFi received a $250 million bailout from FTX to help keep it afloat.

    FTX, once valued at $32 billion, collapsed this week under a liquidity crisis, and faces a shortfall of up to $8 billion, according to several media reports. Without a cash injection, the company might plunge into bankruptcy, according to a Bloomberg report.

    Also see: ‘Bedazzled by money’: Democratic ties to Sam Bankman-Fried under scrutiny after FTX collapse

    FTX founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried reportedly extended about $10 billion in loans to its affiliated trading firm Alameda Research — amounting to about half of FTX’s customer assets of $16 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    “I fucked up, and should have done better,” Bankman-Fried said in a tweet Thursday, saying he had, among other things, misread the use of margin on the platform.

    More: The $26 billion rise and fall of FTX crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried

    Late Thursday, it was revealed that Alameda appeared to have shorted the stablecoin Tether, according to blockchain data.

    The FTX fiasco has spread fear of a “contagion” across the broader crypto industry, and sent the price of bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    -3.87%

    at one point to its lowest level since November 2020.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • The $26 billion rise and fall of FTX crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried

    The $26 billion rise and fall of FTX crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried

    [ad_1]

    Just six months ago, CEOs, celebs and world leaders like Bill Clinton and Tony Blair flocked to him, gathering at a Davos-like conference he hosted in the Bahamas where he lives as one of the most outspoken evangelists for the power of the blockchain.  

    Fast forward to Sunday and Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire came crashing down, the victim of an old-fashioned bank run that quickly exposed the weaknesses of the new finance system he had championed. 

    Almost overnight, Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency exchange, FTX, had gone from being valued at $32 billion to worthless, leaving scores of investors scrambling to get their deposits back and triggering probes in the U.S. by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice, according to reports.

    On Thursday, the 30-year-old Bankman-Fried took to Twitter to level with his clients.

    “I fucked up, and should have done better,” he wrote.

    A very rapid rise

    It took less than five years for Bankman-Fried to build a personal fortune that was estimated at its highest point to be more than $26 billion, making him among the richest people in the world.

    His schlubby, boyish appearance — ill-fitting t-shirts, gym shorts and a mop of curly hair — made him look more like a college student ripping bong hits in the basement of a frat house than a finance guru, but fit nicely with the anti-establishment ethos that appealed to crypto enthusiasts.

    The son of law professors at Stanford University, Bankman-Fried was a wunderkind from an early age. He studied physics and mathematics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

    After a stint as an ETF trader for Jane Street Capital, a highly respected Wall Street firm that is known for attracting genius quantitative traders, Bankman-Fried became interested in the concept of effective altruism, a philosophy that focuses on using reason and evidence to find solutions that benefit the most people possible. In 2017, he launched Alameda Research, a quantitative trading firm focused on digital currencies.

    Over the next year, he began building his fortune through arbitrage trading of Bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +11.10%

    between exchanges in the U.S. and Japan, where prices were often slightly higher. In 2019, Bankman-Fried launched the crypto exchange FTX.

    The timing was fortuitous: as the COVID-19 pandemic spread across the globe the following year, interest in cryptocurrencies among people exploded. FTX took off and brought in the big-name celebrity endorsers and partners, like professional athletes Tom Brady and Steph Curry. 

    Bankman-Fried soon found himself feted by some of the biggest institutions in finance, attracting investment from the biggest names on Wall Street and beyond like Softbank
    9984,
    -2.65%

    Group, Sequoia Capital, Blackrock
    BLK,
    +13.26%
    .
    Tiger Global Management and Thoma Bravo. He even raised money from billionaire hedge fund legends Paul Tudor Jones and Israel Englander.

    Soon, FTX was among the biggest players in the industry.

    The face of crypto

    Despite his ballooning wealth, Bankman-Fried maintained the appearance and lifestyle of a teenage gamer. He moved to the Bahamas, where he reportedly lived in a penthouse apartment with 10 roommates.

    On Zoom calls, he would often play video games while talking — his favorite game being League of Legends. Profiles of him often noted that he kept a bean bag just feet from his desk to sleep on.

    What set Bankman-Fried apart from other crypto tycoons, was his professed interest in working with regulators to create a more robust framework around the nascent industry and treat it more like a traditional finance network. 

    To that end, Bankman-Fried appeared before Congress to try to explain to skeptical U.S. lawmakers how the crypto industry worked. He also said he welcomed regulation, not always a popular position in the crypto world.

    “FTX believes [government agencies] could play an even more prominent role in the digital-asset ecosystem and bring greater investor protections by closing some regulatory gaps,” he said before a senate panel in February. “FTX believes that such efforts would combine the best aspects of traditional finance and digital-asset innovations.”

    Bankman-Fried even put his great wealth to play in politics, becoming a major campaign donor for the Democratic party. In 2020, he was one of President Joe Biden’s largest single donors and spent nearly $40 million on political campaigns this year for the midterm elections, according to campaign filings.

    As cryptocurrencies have experienced significant declines in prices this year, triggering the collapse of several operations, Bankman-Fried arose as a savior, buying up several failing partners as positioning himself as a kind of Robin Hood for the industry.

    A swift collapse

    For as fast a rise to the top of the world that Bankman-Fried enjoyed, the fall was just as rapid.

    On Sunday, Changpeng Zhao, the CEO of FTX’s competitor, Binance, and an archrival of Bankman-Fried’s, announced on Twitter that his firm, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, was liquidating its sizable holdings of FTT, the coin issued by FTX, “due to recent revelations that have come to light.”

    Bankman-Fried accused Zhao of spreading false rumors. But the damage was done.

    Binance’s move triggered a massive selloff with customers seeking to redeem some $5 billion in deposits. FTX didn’t have it and redemptions froze up.  

    On Tuesday, Bankman-Fried announced that FTX had reached a tentative agreement to be acquired by Binance, due to a “significant liquidity crunch.” The turmoil set off broad declines among several of the most popular cryptocurrencies and even spilled into the world of traditional finance, sending markets tumbling.

    The next day, the chaos increased, with reports that FTX and Bankman-Fried were under investigation by several U.S. agencies. By the end of the day, Binance said it was walking away from the deal because due diligence had revealed that “the issues are beyond our control or ability to help.” 

    Binance’s deal seemed like the only thing preventing FTX from potentially collapsing. “At some point I might have more to say about a particular sparring partner,” Bankman-Fried tweeted on Thursday. “For now, all I’ll say is: well played; you won.”

    Also on Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Bankman-Fried had been using some customer deposits to fund risky bets by his Alameda Research firm, setting FTX up for collapse.

    With the Binance lifeline gone and with few options available, Bankman-Fried told investors he needed $8 billion or more to plug the hole in FTX’s books, according to reports. 

    On Twitter, Bankman-Fried said he would focus all his efforts on making sure depositors got their money back. He also tried to explain FTX’s collapse, saying “a poor internal labeling of bank-related accounts meant that I was substantially off on my sense of users’ margin. I thought it was way lower.”

    Said Bankman-Fried: “My #1 priority–by far–is doing right by users,” he wrote. “Right now, we’re spending the week doing everything we can to raise liquidity. I can’t make any promises about that.”

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Crypto investors rattled as Binance abandons its proposed acquisition of rival FTX

    Crypto investors rattled as Binance abandons its proposed acquisition of rival FTX

    [ad_1]

    Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, is abandoning its proposed acquisition of the non-U.S. assets of rival FTX, amid the latter’s liquidity crunch.

    “As a result of corporate due diligence, as well as the latest news reports regarding mishandled customer funds and alleged US agency investigations, we have decided that we will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX.com,” according to a tweet by Binance’s official account Wednesday.

    “Our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help,” Binance wrote.

    Executives at Binance have found a gap, likely in billions and possibly more than $6 billion, between the liabilities and assets of FTX, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing an anonymous source familiar with the matter. 

    Representatives at Binance and FTX didn’t immediately respond to a request seeking comments.

    On Tuesday, Changpeng Zhao, Binance’s chief executive, said the exchange had signed a letter of intent to acquire FTX.com, a separate entity from FTX.US, after FTX “asked for help.”

    Read: Bitcoin falls to two-year low after crypto exchange Binance proposed to buy rival FTX

    Investors are worried about any contagion, as concerns over FTX’s solvency spilled over to the already battered crypto market. BitcoinBTCUSD plunged Wednesday to as low as $16,863, the lowest level since November 2020.

    FTX is the third largest crypto exchange by trading volume, according to CoinMarketCap. 

    Also read: Crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried’s net worth could shrink by over $13 billion

    See also: FTX problems mean big headaches for its private equity investors

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Coinbase prepares for likely worse 2023, Q3 revenue drops more than 50%

    Coinbase prepares for likely worse 2023, Q3 revenue drops more than 50%

    [ad_1]

    Coinbase Global Inc. late Thursday reported a wider quarterly loss and a 54% drop in revenue, saying the headwinds for its business will continue and likely intensify next year.

    Coinbase
    COIN,
    -8.09%

    said it lost $545 million, or $2.43 a share, in the quarter, swinging from earnings of $406 million, or $1.62 a share, in the year-ago period.

    Revenue dropped to $576 million from $1.24 billion a year ago.

    Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected the crypto exchange to report a loss of $2.38 a share on revenue of $641 million.

    Shares traded lower immediately after the report, but at last check were rising more than 8% in the extended session.

    The quarter was “mixed” for Coinbase, the company said in a letter to shareholders. “Transaction revenue was significantly impacted by stronger macroeconomic and crypto market headwinds, as well as trading volume moving offshore.”

    On the plus side, Coinbase saw “strong growth in our subscription and services revenue,” it said.

    Those headwinds, however, continued to impact transaction revenue, which was down 44% quarter on quarter, Coinbase said in the letter.

    Trading volume dropped to $159 billion in the quarter from $217 billion in the second quarter.

    “For 2022, we remain cautiously optimistic that we will operate within the $500 million adjusted EBITDA loss guardrail that we previously communicated,” the company said. That assumes that the crypto market does not deteriorate further, it said.

    For next year, however, Coinbase is “preparing with a conservative bias and assuming that the current macroeconomic headwinds will persist and possibly intensify,” the company said.

    Coinbase earlier this week said its chief product officer was stepping down as the company reorganizes its business.

    In August, the company reported a $1.1 billion loss.

    Coinbase shares have lost more than 77% this year, compared with losses of around 21% for the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -1.06%
    .

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • U.S. manufacturing barely expands in October, ISM says

    U.S. manufacturing barely expands in October, ISM says

    [ad_1]

    The numbers: A closely-watched index that measures U.S. manufacturing activity fell 0.7 percentage points to 50.2 in October, according to the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday.

    Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the index to inch down to 50. Any number below 50% reflects a shrinking economy.

    It is the lowest level since May 2020.

    Key details: The index for new orders remained in contraction territory, rising 2.1 points to 47.1. The production index rose 1.7 points to 52.3.

    The employment index rose 1.3 points to 50 in October.

    Supplier deliveries fell 5.6 points to 46.8 in October. This is the first time that deliveries were in a “faster” territory since February 2016.

    The price index dropped 5.1 points to 46.6., also the lowest reading since the pandemic. Pricing power is shifting back to the buyer, the ISM said.

    Only 8 of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in October.

    Big picture: Manufacturing has been slowing recently led by softening business spending and fading demand for consumer goods. Economists think it is inevitable the index slips below the 50 threshold.

    In a separate data, the S&P global U.S. manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.4 in its “final” reading in October from the “flash” reading of 49.9. This is down from a reading of 52 in September.

    What ISM said: Manufacturing is slowing down and could soon enter contraction territory, but that doesn’t mean there will be a recession in the U.S., said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM factory business survey.

    “I don’t see a collapse of new orders. I don’t see a collapse of the PMI,” Fiore said.

    Looking ahead: “Recession jitters among manufacturers won’t disappear any time soon…manufacturing will endure more pain as demand weakens at home and abroad while prices stay high and interest rates remain fairly elevated,” said Oren Klachkin, economist at Oxford Economics.

    Market reaction: Stocks
    DJIA,
    -0.24%

    SPX,
    -0.41%

    were lower after the economic data. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.053%

    moved back above 4%.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Chicago PMI weakens further in October

    Chicago PMI weakens further in October

    [ad_1]

    The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped to 45.2 in October from 45.7 in the prior month, according to data released Monday.

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal forecast a 47 reading. 

    Readings below 50 indicate contraction territory.

    The index is produced by the ISM-Chicago with MNI. It is released to subscribers three minutes before its release to the public at 9:45 am Eastern.

    The Chicago PMI is the last of the regional manufacturing indices before the national factory data for October is released on Tuesday.

    Economist polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the closely-watched Institute for Supply Management’s factory index to barely remain above the 50 breakeven level in October. 

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Another jumbo Fed rate hike is expected this week — and then life gets difficult for Powell

    Another jumbo Fed rate hike is expected this week — and then life gets difficult for Powell

    [ad_1]

    First the easy part.

    Economists widely expect Federal Reserve monetary-policy makers to approve a fourth straight jumbo interest-rate rise at its meeting this week. A hike of three-quarters of a percentage point would bring the central bank’s benchmark rate to a level of 3.75%- 4%.

    “The November decision is a lock. Well, I would be floored if they didn’t go 75 basis points,” said Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS.

    The Fed decision will come at 2 p.m. on Wednesday after two days of talks among members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

    What happens at Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference a half-hour later will be more fraught.

    The focus will be on whether Powell gives a signal to the market about plans for a smaller rise in its benchmark interest rate in December.

    The Fed’s “dot plot” projection of interest rates, released in September, already penciled in a slowdown to a half-point rate hike in December, followed by a quarter-point hike early in 2023.

    The market is expecting signals about a change in policy, and many think Powell will use his press conference to hint that a slower pace of interest-rate rises is indeed coming.

    A Wall Street Journal story last week reported that some Fed officials are not keen to keep hiking rates by 75 basis points per meeting. That, alongside San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s comment that the Fed needs to start talking about slowing down the pace of hikes, were taken as a sign of a slowdown to come by the stock and bond markets.

    “No one wants to be late for the pivot party, so the hint was enough,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

    Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said he thinks Powell will signal a smaller rate hike in December by focusing on some of the good wage-inflation news that was published earlier Friday.

    There was a clear slowdown in private-sector wage growth, Tilley said.

    See: U.S. third-quarter wage pressures cool a little from elevated levels

    But the problem with Powell signaling he has found an exit ramp from the jumbo rate hikes this year is that his committee members might not be ready to signal a downshift, Pingle of UBS said. He argued that the inflation data writ large in September won’t give Fed officials any confidence that a cooling in price pressures is in the offing.

    See: U.S. inflation still running hot, key PCE price gauge shows

    Another worry for Powell is that future data might not cooperate.

    There are two employment reports and two consumer-price-inflation reports before the next Fed policy meeting on Dec. 13–14.

    So Powell might have to reverse course.

    “If you pre-commit and the data slaps you in the head — then you can’t follow through,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities.

    This has been the Fed’s pattern all year, Stanley noted. It was only in March that the Fed thought its terminal rate, or the peak benchmark rate, wouldn’t rise above 3%.

    While the Fed may want to slow down the pace of rate hikes, it doesn’t want the market to take a downshift in the size of rate rises as a signal that a rate cut is in the offing. But some analysts believe that the first cut in fact will come soon after the Fed reduces the size of its rate rises.

    In general terms, the Fed wants financial conditions to stay restrictive in order to squeeze the life out of inflation.

    Pingle said he expects Kansas City Fed President Esther George to formally dissent in favor of a slower pace of rate hikes.

    There is growing disagreement among economists about the “peak” or “terminal rate” of this hiking cycle. The Fed has penciled in a terminal rate in the range of 4.5%–4.75%. Some economists think the terminal rate could be lower than that. Others think that rates will go above 5%.

    Those who think the Fed will stop short of 5% tend to talk about a recession, with the fast pace of Fed hikes “breaking something.” Those who see rates above 5% think that inflation will be much more persistent.

    Ultimately, Amherst Pierpont’s Stanley is of the view that the data aren’t going to be the deciding factor. “The answer to the question of what either forces or allows the Fed to stop is probably not going to come from the data. The answer is going to be that the Fed has a number in mind to pause,” he said.

    The Fed “is careening toward this moment of truth where it has very tight labor markets and very high inflation, and the Fed is going to come out and say, ‘OK, we’re ready to pause here.’ “

    “That strikes me that is going to be a very volatile period for the market,” he added.

    Fed fund futures markets are already volatile, with traders penciling in a terminal rate above 5% two weeks ago and now seeing a 4.85% terminal rate.

    Over the month of October, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.046%

    rose steadily above 4.2% before softening to 4% in recent days.

    “When you get close to the end, every move really counts,” Stanley said.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Another jumbo Fed rate hike is expected this week — and then life gets difficult for Powell

    Another jumbo Fed rate hike is expected this week — and then life gets difficult for Powell

    [ad_1]

    First the easy part.

    Economists widely expect Federal Reserve monetary-policy makers to approve a fourth straight jumbo interest-rate rise at its meeting this week. A hike of three-quarters of a percentage point would bring the central bank’s benchmark rate to a level of 3.75%- 4%.

    “The November decision is a lock. Well, I would be floored if they didn’t go 75 basis points,” said Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS.

    The Fed decision will come at 2 p.m. on Wednesday after two days of talks among members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

    What happens at Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference a half-hour later will be more fraught.

    The focus will be on whether Powell gives a signal to the market about plans for a smaller rise in its benchmark interest rate in December.

    The Fed’s “dot plot” projection of interest rates, released in September, already penciled in a slowdown to a half-point rate hike in December, followed by a quarter-point hike early in 2023.

    The market is expecting signals about a change in policy, and many think Powell will use his press conference to hint that a slower pace of interest-rate rises is indeed coming.

    A Wall Street Journal story last week reported that some Fed officials are not keen to keep hiking rates by 75 basis points per meeting. That, alongside San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s comment that the Fed needs to start talking about slowing down the pace of hikes, were taken as a sign of a slowdown to come by the stock and bond markets.

    “No one wants to be late for the pivot party, so the hint was enough,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

    Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said he thinks Powell will signal a smaller rate hike in December by focusing on some of the good wage-inflation news that was published earlier Friday.

    There was a clear slowdown in private-sector wage growth, Tilley said.

    See: U.S. third-quarter wage pressures cool a little from elevated levels

    But the problem with Powell signaling he has found an exit ramp from the jumbo rate hikes this year is that his committee members might not be ready to signal a downshift, Pingle of UBS said. He argued that the inflation data writ large in September won’t give Fed officials any confidence that a cooling in price pressures is in the offing.

    See: U.S. inflation still running hot, key PCE price gauge shows

    Another worry for Powell is that future data might not cooperate.

    There are two employment reports and two consumer-price-inflation reports before the next Fed policy meeting on Dec. 13–14.

    So Powell might have to reverse course.

    “If you pre-commit and the data slaps you in the head — then you can’t follow through,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities.

    This has been the Fed’s pattern all year, Stanley noted. It was only in March that the Fed thought its terminal rate, or the peak benchmark rate, wouldn’t rise above 3%.

    While the Fed may want to slow down the pace of rate hikes, it doesn’t want the market to take a downshift in the size of rate rises as a signal that a rate cut is in the offing. But some analysts believe that the first cut in fact will come soon after the Fed reduces the size of its rate rises.

    In general terms, the Fed wants financial conditions to stay restrictive in order to squeeze the life out of inflation.

    Pingle said he expects Kansas City Fed President Esther George to formally dissent in favor of a slower pace of rate hikes.

    There is growing disagreement among economists about the “peak” or “terminal rate” of this hiking cycle. The Fed has penciled in a terminal rate in the range of 4.5%–4.75%. Some economists think the terminal rate could be lower than that. Others think that rates will go above 5%.

    Those who think the Fed will stop short of 5% tend to talk about a recession, with the fast pace of Fed hikes “breaking something.” Those who see rates above 5% think that inflation will be much more persistent.

    Ultimately, Amherst Pierpont’s Stanley is of the view that the data aren’t going to be the deciding factor. “The answer to the question of what either forces or allows the Fed to stop is probably not going to come from the data. The answer is going to be that the Fed has a number in mind to pause,” he said.

    The Fed “is careening toward this moment of truth where it has very tight labor markets and very high inflation, and the Fed is going to come out and say, ‘OK, we’re ready to pause here.’ “

    “That strikes me that is going to be a very volatile period for the market,” he added.

    Fed fund futures markets are already volatile, with traders penciling in a terminal rate above 5% two weeks ago and now seeing a 4.85% terminal rate.

    Over the month of October, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.030%

    rose steadily above 4.2% before softening to 4% in recent days.

    “When you get close to the end, every move really counts,” Stanley said.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Asian stocks moving lower in wake of latest volatile session on Wall Street

    Asian stocks moving lower in wake of latest volatile session on Wall Street

    [ad_1]

    TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly lower on Wednesday following another volatile day on Wall Street, as traders braced for updates on inflation and corporate earnings.

    Benchmarks fell in Tokyo
    NIY00,
    +0.09%
    ,
    Shanghai
    SHCOMP,
    -1.12%

    and Hong Kong
    HSI00,
    -2.90%

    but rose in Sydney.

    South Korea’s Kospi
    180721,
    +0.34%

    lost 0.1% to 2,189.86 after the Bank of Korea raised its key rate by 0.5 percentage point, amid the backdrop of Fed rate hikes in the U.S. and growing inflation risks from the weak won and rebounding global oil prices.

    In currency trading the Japanese yen declined to a 24-year low against the U.S. dollar
    JPYUSD,
    -0.24

    at 146 yen-levels, raising expectations of another intervention by Tokyo to prop up the yen. By midday the dollar
    USDJPY,
    +0.24%

    was at 146.17 yen, up from 145.80 late Tuesday. The euro
    EURUSD,
    +0.12%

    cost 96.96 cents, inching down from 97.07 yen.

    The weaker yen raises costs for both consumers and businesses who rely on imports of food, fuel and other needs, but the bigger purchasing power for foreign currencies is expected to boost tourism. Japan reopened fully to individual tourist travel this week after being closed for more than two years because of the pandemic.

    Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 0.2% to 26,348.73 in morning trading. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200
    ASX10000,
    -1.54%

    gained nearly 0.2% to 6,656.00. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 2% to 16,491.39, while the Shanghai Composite shed 1.2% to 2,943.24.

    On Tuesday, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.65%

    fell 0.7%, marking its fifth straight loss, closing at 3,588.84. The Nasdaq
    COMP,
    -1.10%

    dropped 1.1% to 10,426.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.12%

    added 0.1% to 29,239.19, while the Russell 2000 index
    RUT,
    +0.06%

    rose 1 point, or about 0.1%, to 1,692.92.

    Recession fears have been weighing heavily on markets as stubbornly hot inflation burns businesses and consumers. Economic growth has been slowing as consumers temper spending and the Federal Reserve and other central banks raise interest rates.

    The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 to 2.7%, down from the 2.9% it had estimated in July. The cut comes as Europe faces a particularly high risk of a recession with energy costs soaring amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    See: Global economy most vulnerable since COVID crisis, with housing market at potential ‘tipping point,’ IMF warns

    Wall Street is closely watching the Federal Reserve as it continues to aggressively raise its benchmark interest rate to make borrowing more expensive and slow economic growth. The goal is to cool inflation, but the strategy carries the risk of slowing the economy too much and pushing it into a recession.

    “The market desperately wants a reason for the Fed to be able to stop tightening and the data recently hasn’t given them that opening with respect to inflation,” said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at All Star Charts.

    Computer-chip manufacturers continued slipping in the wake of the U.S. government’s decision to tighten export controls on semiconductors and chip manufacturing equipment to China. Qualcomm
    QCOM,
    -3.99%

    fell 4%.

    See: Intel reportedly plans to lay off thousands of workers, with details potentially emerging alongside quarterly earnings

    Uber
    UBER,
    -10.42%

    fell 10.4% and Lyft
    LYFT,
    -12.02%

    slumped 12% following a proposal by the U.S. government that could give contract workers at ride-hailing and other gig economy companies full status as employees.

    The Fed will release minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday, possibly giving Wall Street more insight into its views on inflation and next steps.

    Investors still expect the Fed to raise its overnight rate by three-quarters of a percentage point next month, the fourth such increase. That’s triple the usual amount, and would bring the rate up to a range of 3.75% to 4%. It started the year at virtually zero.

    Rex Nutting: Leading indicators show inflation is slowing, but Fed policy makers are too busy looking in rearview mirror to notice

    The government will also release its report on wholesale prices Wednesday, providing an update on how inflation is hitting businesses. The closely watched report on consumer prices will be released on Thursday, and a report on retail sales is due Friday.

    “Everyone is still hoping that every inflation report will be the one that shows that pressure is alleviating,” Delwiche said.

    Wall Street is also gearing up for the start of the latest corporate earnings reporting season, which could provide a clearer picture of inflation’s impact.

    Among the companies reporting quarterly results this week: PepsiCo
    PEP,
    +0.48%
    ,
    Delta Air Lines
    DAL,
    -1.97%

    and Domino’s Pizza
    DPZ,
    -1.99%
    .
    Banks including Citigroup
    C,
    -2.76%

    and JPMorgan Chase
    JPM,
    -2.89%

    will also report results.

    In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude
    CL00,
    -0.75%

    lost 82 cents to $88.53 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. crude-oil prices fell 2% Tuesday. Brent crude
    BRN00,
    -0.56%
    ,
    the international pricing standard, fell 62 cents to $93.67 a barrel.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • History shows S&P 500’s bounce from 2022 low may not signal bear market’s end, cautions Bespoke

    History shows S&P 500’s bounce from 2022 low may not signal bear market’s end, cautions Bespoke

    [ad_1]

    The U.S. stock market is heading higher again Tuesday, with the S&P 500 index continuing to climb above its 2022 low, but Bespoke Investment Group cautions that history shows its recent bounce may not signal the bear market’s end.

    Bespoke’s research on first-day gains from bear-market lows found that bear markets typically end with even bigger moves than the one seen Monday, when the S&P 500 jumped 2.6%. The average move higher is “actually above 4%!” the firm wrote in an Oct. 3 note. 


    BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP NOTE DATED OCT. 3, 2022

    U.S. stocks are trading up this week as Treasury yields fall and the soaring U.S. dollar loses some of its strength. The market moves come as investors look for any hints that the Federal Reserve might back off from its aggressive tightening of monetary policy.

    Read: A Bear Stearns moment awaits if actions like the Bank of England intervention don’t calm markets, BofA analysts say

    On Monday, “markets clearly benefitted from huge declines in yields, which benefitted from Richmond Fed President Barkin echoing Governor Brainard’s speech Friday with concerns about the impact of dollar strength,” Bespoke said in its note. The reversal of the U.S. dollar, along with lower yields and higher stocks, showed investors “clearly bought that concern as the latest source of potential Fed dovishness.”

    Bespoke was referring to comments by Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard and Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

    While the U.S. dollar’s strength has eased this week, the ICE US Dollar index
    DXY,
    -1.20%

    is still up around 15% so far this year, according to FactSet data, at last check. The dollar has climbed as the Fed tightens monetary policy to combat high inflation. 

    “On balance, dollar appreciation tends to reduce import prices in the United States,” Brainard said in her speech Friday addressing global financial stability considerations. “But in some other jurisdictions, the corresponding currency depreciation may contribute to inflationary pressures and require additional tightening to offset.”

    The Fed is “attentive to financial vulnerabilities that could be exacerbated by the advent of additional adverse shocks,” Brainard said in her speech. “For instance, in countries where sovereign or corporate debt levels are high, higher interest rates could increase debt-servicing burdens and concerns about debt sustainability, which could be exacerbated by currency depreciation.”

    Read: U.S. dollar’s dominance tends to hurt these sectors of the stock market less, says RBC

    As for the decline in Treasury yields, the 10-year Treasury note dropped 15.2 basis points Monday to 3.650%, while two-year Treasury yield fell 10.3 basis points to 4.103%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Treasury yields continued to dip on Tuesday, with the two-year
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.104%

    at 4.08% and the 10-year
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.621%

    falling to 3.60%, FactSet data show, at last check.  

    Read: Why 2-year Treasury yields are ‘the base problem’ for the struggling stock market, according to this Morgan Stanley portfolio manager 

    Meanwhile, the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of rival currencies, was down more than 1% around midday Tuesday. 

    The U.S. stock market was moving sharply higher again on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +2.17%

    jumping 2.6%, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.40%

    climbing 2.9% and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +2.66%

    surging 3.3%, FactSet data show, at last check.

    But after this week’s bounce, the S&P 500 remains down more than 20% this year, based on trading around midday Tuesday.

    “It’s easy to read-in to very high two-way volatility across assets as signaling a Fed pivot is finally here, but we just haven’t seen any reason for that,” Bespoke said. “Until the Fed durably shifts away from their concern over inflation, headwinds for stocks and bonds alongside tailwinds for the dollar will continue.”

    Also read: Rising interest rates, economic slowdown and higher unemployment will drive U.S. households to sell more stocks in 2023: Goldman Sachs

    [ad_2]

    Source link