Tag: Monetary policy

Asian shares extend losses as specter of recession looms

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BANGKOK — Asian shares slipped on Monday, with Chinese markets logging moderate losses after they reopened from a weeklong holiday.

The declines followed yet another dismal end to the week on Wall Street as a strong U.S. jobs report added to worries the Federal Reserve might consider the higher-than-expected hiring data as proof the economy hasn’t slowed enough to get inflation under control. That might mean still more hefty rate hikes that could make a recession more likely.

A U.S. consumer prices report on Thursday will be one of the biggest factors for markets this week. Investors also are awaiting the latest updates on how companies are dealing with higher prices and interest rate hikes.

Markets were closed Monday in Tokyo, Taiwan and South Korea. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 2.5% to 17,298.32 while the Shanghai Composite index shed 0.4% to 3,012.58. Bangkok’s SET lost 0.6% and India’s Sensex gave up 1.2%.

The dollar rose to 145.44 Japanese yen from 145.34 late Friday, adding to pressure on Japan’s central bank to counter the yen’s prolonged slide by adjusting its policy of keeping its benchmark interest rate below zero to fend off deflation.

Prices have been rising in Japan, pushed higher mainly by global inflation and surging costs for oil and gas, but the Bank of Japan has stuck to its ultra-loose monetary policy while the Fed has pressed ahead with sharp rate hikes. The higher expected returns have pushed the dollar higher against the yen.

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 2.8% to 3,639.66. It ended with a 1.5% gain for the week, its first weekly gain in four weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average skidded 2.1% to 29,296.79. The Nasdaq tumbled 3.8% to 10,652.40. The Russell 2000 index fell 2.9%, to 1,702.15.

The government report showing employers hired more workers last month than economists expected might clear the way for the Fed to continue hiking interest rates aggressively, something that risks causing a recession if done too severely.

Employers added 263,000 jobs last month. That’s a slowdown from the hiring pace of 315,000 in July, but it’s still more than the 250,000 that economists expected.

Stocks have tumbled over 20% this year from record highs this year on worries about inflation, interest rates and the possibility of a recession.

The major indexes managed to notch a gain for the week, thanks to a powerful but short-lived rally Monday and Tuesday after some investors squinted hard enough at some weaker-than-expected economic data to suggest the Fed may take it easier on rate hikes. But Friday’s jobs report may have dashed such hopes for a “pivot” by the Fed. It’s a pattern that has been repeated several times this year.

By hiking interest rates, the Fed is hoping to starve inflation of the purchases needed to keep prices rising even further. The Fed has already seen some effects, with higher mortgage rates hurting the housing industry in particular. But if the rate hikes go too far, that could squeeze the economy into a recession. In the

Crude oil, meanwhile, had its biggest weekly gain since March. Benchmark U.S. crude jumped 4.7% to settle at $92.64 per barrel Friday. Brent crude, the international standard, rose 3.7% to settle at $97.92.

Oil prices have surged because big oil-producing countries have pledged to cut production in order to keep prices up. That should keep the pressure up on inflation, which is still near a four-decade high but hopefully moderating.

On Monday, the U.S. benchmark fell 97 cents to $91.67 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude gave up $1.02 to $96.90 a barrel.

Beyond higher interest rates, analysts say the next hammer to hit stocks could be a potential drop in corporate profits. Companies are contending with high inflation and interest rates eating into their earnings, while the economy slows.

The euro was unchanged at 97.36 U.S. cents.

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October 9, 2022
How meltdown in a $1 trillion market brought the UK to the brink of a financial crisis | CNN Business

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London
CNN Business
—

Pension funds are designed to be dull. Their singular goal — earning enough money to make payouts to retirees — favors cool heads over brash risk takers.

But as markets in the United Kingdom went haywire last week, hundreds of British pension fund managers found themselves at the center of a crisis that forced the Bank of England to step in to restore stability and avert a broader financial meltdown.

All it took was one big shock. Following finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng’s announcement on Friday, Sept. 23 of plans to ramp up borrowing to pay for tax cuts, investors dumped the pound and UK government bonds, sending yields on some of that debt soaring at the fastest rate on record.

The scale of the tumult put enormous pressure on many pension funds by upending an investing strategy that involves the use of derivatives to hedge their bets.

As the price of government bonds crashed, the funds were asked to pony up billions of pounds in collateral. In a scramble for cash, investment managers were forced to sell whatever they could — including, in some cases, more government bonds. That sent yields even higher, sparking another wave of collateral calls.

“It started to feed itself,” said Ben Gold, head of investment at XPS Pensions Group, a UK pensions consultancy. “Everyone was looking to sell and there was no buyer.”

The Bank of England went into crisis mode. After working through the night of Tuesday, Sept. 27, it stepped into the market the next day with a pledge to buy up to £65 billion ($73 billion) in bonds if needed. That stopped the bleeding and averted what the central bank later told lawmakers was its worst fear: a “self-reinforcing spiral” and “widespread financial instability.”

In a letter to the head of the UK Parliament’s Treasury Committee this week, the Bank of England said that if it hadn’t interceded, a number of funds would have defaulted, amplifying the strain on the financial system. It said its intervention was essential to “restore core market functioning.”

Pension funds are now racing to raise money to refill their coffers. Yet there are questions about whether they can find their footing before the Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying is due to end on Oct. 14. And for a wider range of investors, the near-miss is a wake-up call.

For the first time in decades, interest rates are rising quickly around the world. In that climate, markets are prone to accidents.

“What the previous two weeks have told you is there can be a lot more volatility in markets,” said Barry Kenneth, chief investment officer at the Pension Protection Fund, which manages pensions for employees of UK companies that become insolvent. “It’s easy to invest when everything’s going up. It’s a lot more difficult to invest when you’re trying to catch a falling knife, or you’ve got to readjust to a new environment.”

The first signs of trouble appeared among fund managers who focus on so-called “liability-driven investment,” or LDI, for pensions. Gold said he started to receive messages from worried clients over the weekend of Sept. 24-25.

LDI is built on a straightforward premise: Pensions need enough money to pay what they owe retirees well into the future. To plan for payouts in 30 or 50 years, they buy long-dated bonds, while purchasing derivatives to hedge these bets. In the process, they have to put up collateral. If bond yields rise sharply, they are asked to put up even more collateral in what’s known as a “margin call.” This obscure corner of the market has grown rapidly in recent years, reaching a valuation of more £1 trillion ($1.1 trillion), according to the Bank of England.

When bond yields rise slowly over time, it’s not a problem for pensions deploying LDI strategies, and actually helps their finances. But if bond yields shoot up very quickly, it’s a recipe for trouble. According to the Bank of England, the move in bond yields before it intervened was “unprecedented.” The four-day move in 30-year UK government bonds was more than twice what was seen during the highest-stress period of the pandemic.

“The sharpness and the viciousness of the move is what really caught people out,” Kenneth said.

The margin calls came in — and kept coming. The Pension Protection Fund said it faced a £1.6 billion call for cash. It was able to pay without dumping assets, but others were caught off guard, and were forced into a fire sale of government bonds, corporate debt and stocks to raise money. Gold estimated that at least half of the 400 pension programs that XPS advises faced collateral calls, and that across the industry, funds are now looking to fill a hole of between £100 billion and £150 billion.

“When you push such large moves through the financial system, it makes sense that something would break,” said Rohan Khanna, a strategist at UBS.

When market dysfunction sparks a chain reaction, it’s not just scary for investors. The Bank of England made clear in its letter that the bond market rout “may have led to an excessive and sudden tightening of financing conditions for the real economy” as borrowing costs skyrocketed. For many businesses and mortgage holders, they already have.

So far, the Bank of England has only bought £3.8 billion in bonds, far less than it could have purchased. Still, the effort has sent a strong signal. Yields on longer-term bonds have dropped sharply, giving pension funds time to recoup — though they’ve recently started to rise again.

“What the Bank of England has done is bought time for some of my peers out there,” Kenneth said.

Still, Kenneth is concerned that if the program ends next week as scheduled, the task won’t be complete given the complexity of many pension funds. Daniela Russell, head of UK rates strategy at HSBC, warned in a recent note to clients that there’s a risk of a “cliff-edge,” especially since the Bank of England is moving ahead with previous plans to start selling bonds it bought during the pandemic at the end of the month.

“It might be hoped that the precedent of BoE intervention continues to provide a backstop beyond this date, but this may not be sufficient to prevent a renewed vigorous sell-off in long-dated gilts,” she wrote.

As central banks jack up interest rates at the fastest clip in decades, investors are nervous about the implications for their portfolios and for the economy. They’re holding more cash, which makes it harder to execute trades and can exacerbate jarring price moves.

That makes a surprise event more likely to cause massive disruption, and the specter of the next shocker looms. Will it be a rough batch of economic data? Trouble at a global bank? Another political misstep in the United Kingdom?

Gold said the pension industry as a whole is better prepared now, though he concedes it would be “naive” to think there couldn’t be another bout of instability.

“You would need to see yields rise more quickly than we saw this time,” he said, noting the larger buffers funds are now amassing. “It would require something of absolutely historic proportions for that not to be enough, but you never know.”

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October 8, 2022
Dow books 630-point drop after strong jobs data rattles investors, but stocks cement weekly gains
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U.S. stocks finished sharply lower Friday, but still booked their best weekly gains in a month, after September jobs data showed an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate that’s anticipated to reinforce the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep tightening monetary policy.

Investors also weighed a profit warning at a leading microchip maker ahead of next week’s increase in quarterly earnings results.
What happened

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-2.11%
fell 630.15 points, or 2.1%, ending at 29,296.79, but off the session low of 29,142.66.

The S&P 500
SPX,
-2.80%
dropped 104.86 points, or 2.8%, closing at 3,639.66.

The Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-3.80%
shed 420.91 points, or 3.8%, to finish at 10,652.40.

Stocks posted back-to-back losses, trimming weekly gains, but recorded their best weekly gains since Sept. 9, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Read: Will the stock market be open on Columbus Day?

What drove markets

Stocks recorded sharp losses Friday after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate declined to 3.5% from an August reading of 3.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%.

Still, a powerful rally earlier in the week boosted all three major stock indexes to weekly gains, a departure from three straight weekly losses, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

“It’s manic. We are all on edge,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management, of the sharp market swings.

“Any piece of good news is a cause for an explosive rally,” Engelke said by phone. On the flip side, he pegged technology-based trading “in an illiquid and emotional market” as exacerbating Friday’s selloff.

“It’s a reflection that people have re-entered the mind-set that the Fed is going to be raising rates at a rapid clip, probably for longer than what they might have suspected at the start of the week,” said Robert Pavlik, a senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management, by phone.

Pavlik expects the Fed to keep tightening financial conditions to try to head off inflation. “But once we turn the corner, and the economy slows down, the Fed probably will be more aggressive in cutting rates on the way down.”

In addition, the Fed has been “draining liquidity from the system at a remarkable pace,” wrote Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, in a Friday client note, while pointing to an astounding $1.3 trillion decline in the central bank’s balance sheet since the December 2021 peak.

Pavlik at Dakota Wealth said he anticipates the Fed will start slowing interest rate hikes by mid-next year, which likely means continued pressure for the stock market, particularly with a backdrop of big oil-price
CL00,
+5.37%
gains this week after global crude producers voted to cut monthly production and with the U.S. dollar’s
DXY,
+0.44%
surge this year against a basket of rival currencies.

U.S. crude oil prices climbed for a fifth day in a row on Friday to settle at $92.64 a barrel, while booking at 16.5% weekly gain.

New York Fed President John Williams said Friday that benchmark interest rates likely need to hit 4.5% over time. The Fed’s policy rate now sits in a 3%-3.25% range, up from a zero-0.25% range a year ago.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.889%
climbed to 3.883% Friday, as the key metric used to gauge the affordability of credit for businesses, household and the economy posted 10 straight weeks of gains, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Read: Bond markets facing historic losses grow anxious of Fed that ‘isn’t blinking yet’

Investors continued to hope for relief on the inflation front and will be monitoring next week’s release of the September consumer-price index, as well as corporate earnings season as it picks up.

Companies in focus

Twitter Inc.
TWTR,
-0.43%
shares fell 0.4% Friday after a judge delayed a looming trial between the company and Elon Musk to allow the Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-6.32%
CEO more time to close his $44 billion acquisition of the social media platform.

Besides the jobs report, investors weighed a profit warning from microchip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, which said the PC market weakened significantly during the quarter. AMD shares fell 13.9%, and rivals including Nvidia Corp. NVDA and Intel Corp. INTC also closed lower.

U.S. cannabis stocks were choppy Friday, with the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF
MSOS,
-2.80%
ending lower, following steep gains earlier in the week after President Joe Biden said the U.S. would consider de-scheduling cannabis from its current position as a Schedule 1 narcotic under federal law.

—Steven Goldstein contributed reporting to this article
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October 7, 2022
Global stocks mixed ahead of US employment update

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BEIJING — Global stock markets were mixed Friday ahead of U.S. employment data investors hope will show the economy is weakening and persuade the Federal Reserve to ease off plans for more interest rate hikes.

London and Frankfurt opened higher. Tokyo and Hong Kong declined. Oil prices rose.

The future for Wall Street’s S&P 500 index was unchanged after the market benchmark fell Thursday following a private sector report that said U.S. employers hired slightly more workers than forecast in September. That gives ammunition to Fed officials who say more rate hikes are needed to cool the economy and rein in inflation that is at a four-decade high.

U.S. government data due out Friday are expected to show fewer people were hired compared with previous months. Investors hope that will help persuade the Fed five rate hikes this year are working and it can scale down plans for more.

“What the market seems to be crying out for is a Fed pivot,” said Robert Carnell of ING in a report. “For its part, the Fed is sticking to its ‘higher for longer’ mantra.”

In early trading, the FTSE 100 in London gained 0.1% to 7,007.32 and the DAX in Frankfurt added 0.1% to 12,487.27. The CAC 40 in Paris advanced 0.1% to 5,943.54.

On Wall Street, the future for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.1%.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 lost 0.2%. The index is up 4.4% for the week following its best two-day rally in 2 1/2 years. The Dow slid 1.1%. The Nasdaq composite gave up 0.7%.

In Asia, the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo sank 0.7% to 27,116.11 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbled 1.5% to 17,740.05.

The Kospi in Seoul shed 0.2% to 2,232.84 while Sydney’s S&P ASX 200 lost 0.8% to 6,762.80.

India’s Sensex lost less than 0.1% to 58,213.21. New Zealand and Southeast Asian markets declined.

The Fed and central banks around the world are focused on extinguishing inflation that is running at multi-decade highs, but investors worry the unusually large and rapid pace of their rate hikes might tip the global economy into recession.

Strong U.S. hiring is positive for job hunters but a sign of enduring economic strength, which might make the Fed think more rate hikes are needed.

U.S. government data showed the number of applications for unemployment benefits hit a four-month high last week. That suggests the job market might be cooling.

Forecasters expect the government to report the economy added 250,000 jobs last month, well below the past year’s monthly average of 487,000 but still a strong number despite inflation and two straight quarters of U.S. economic contraction.

In energy markets, benchmark U.S. crude gained 56 cents to $89.01 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract advanced 69 cents on Thursday to $88.45. Brent crude, the price basis for trading international oils, advanced 45 cents to $94.87 per barrel in London. It rose $1.05 the previous session to $94.42.

The dollar declined to 144.84 yen from Thursday’s 145.07 yen. The euro gained to 98.06 cents from 97.94 cents.

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October 7, 2022
Asian stock markets fall ahead of US employment update

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BEIJING — Asian shares followed Wall Street lower Friday ahead of U.S. jobs data investors hope will persuade the Federal Reserve to ease off plans for more interest rate hikes.

Tokyo and Hong Kong, the region’s biggest markets, retreated. Chinese markets were closed for a holiday. Oil prices were little-changed.

Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index fell 1% on Thursday after a private sector report said U.S. employers hired slightly more workers than forecast in September. That gives ammunition to Fed officials who say more rate hikes are needed to cool the economy and rein in inflation that is at a four-decade high.

Investors were watching for Friday’s release of U.S. government data that are expected to show fewer people were hired compared with previous months. They hope that will help persuade the Fed five rate hikes this year are working and it can scale down plans for more.

“What the market seems to be crying out for is a Fed pivot,” said Robert Carnell of ING in a report. “For its part, the Fed is sticking to its ‘higher for longer’ mantra.”

The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo sank 0.6% to 27,149.75 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbled 1% to 17,823.29.

The Kospi in Seoul gained 0.2% to 2,241.87 while Sydney’s S&P ASX 200 shed 0.6% to 6,777.00.

New Zealand lost 0.2% while Singapore and Bangkok advanced.

The Fed and central banks around the world are focused on extinguishing inflation that is running at multi-decade highs, but investors worry their unusually large and rapid pace of rate hikes might tip the global economy into recession.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell to 3,744.52. The index is up 4.4% for the week following its best two-day rally in 2 1/2 years.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.1% to 29,926.94. The Nasdaq composite slid 0.7% to 11,073.31.

The yield on U.S. government debt, or the difference between market price and the payout at maturity, widened. That indicates traders expect more rate hikes.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps set rates for mortgages, rose to 3.81% from 3.75% late Wednesday. The yield on the two-year Treasury rose to 4.22% from 4.14% late Monday.

Strong U.S. hiring is positive for job hunters but a sign of enduring economic strength, which might make the Fed think more rate hikes are needed.

U.S. government data showed the number of applications for unemployment benefits hit a four-month high last week. That suggests the job market might be cooling.

Forecasters expect the government to report the economy added 250,000 jobs last month, well below the past year’s monthly average of 487,000 but still a strong number despite inflation and two straight quarters of U.S. economic contraction.

In energy markets, benchmark U.S. crude rose 2 cents to $88.47 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract advanced 69 cents on Thursday to $88.45. Brent crude, the price basis for trading international oils, shed 4 cents to $94.38 per barrel in London. It rose $1.05 the previous session to $94.42.

The dollar declined to 144.92 yen from Thursday’s 145.07 yen. The euro gained to 98.11 cents from 97.94 cents.

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October 6, 2022
The bond market is crumbling. That’s bad for Wall Street and Main Street | CNN Business

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A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.

New York
CNN Business
—

The global bond market is having a historically awful year.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, a proxy for borrowing costs, briefly moved above 4% on Wednesday for the first time in 12 years. That’s a bad omen for Wall Street and Main Street.

What’s happening: This hasn’t been a pretty year for US stocks. All three major indexes are in a bear market, down more than 20% from recent highs, and analysts predict more pain ahead. When things are this bad, investors seek safety in Treasury bonds, which have low returns but are also considered low-risk (As loans to the US government, Treasury notes are seen as a safe bet since there is little risk they won’t be paid back).

But in 2022’s topsy-turvy economy, even that safe haven has become somewhat treacherous.

Bond returns, or yields, rise as their prices fall. Under normal market conditions, a rising yield should mean that there’s less demand for bonds because investors would rather put their money into higher-risk (and higher-reward) stocks.

Instead markets are plummeting, and investors are flocking out of risky stocks, but yields are going up. What gives?

Blame the Fed. Persistent inflation has led the Federal Reserve to fight back by aggressively hiking interest rates, and as a result the yields on US Treasury bonds have soared.

Economic turmoil in the United Kingdom and European Union has also caused the value of both the British pound and the euro to fall dramatically when compared to the US dollar. Dollar strength typically coincides with higher bond rates as well.

So while we’d normally see a rising 10-year yield as a signal that US investors have a rosy economic outlook, that isn’t the case this time. Gloomy investors are predicting more interest rate hikes and a higher chance of recession.

What it means: Portfolios are aching. Vanguard’s $514.5 billion Total Bond Market Index, the largest US bond fund, is down more than 15% so far this year. That puts it on track for its worst year since it was created in 1986. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury bond fund

(TLT) (TLT) is down nearly 30% for the year.

Stock investors are also nervously eyeing Treasuries. High yields make it more expensive for companies to borrow money, and that extra cost could lower earnings expectations. Companies with significant debt levels may not be able to afford higher financing costs at all.

Main Street doesn’t get a break, either. An elevated 10-year Treasury return means more expensive loans on cars, credit cards and even student debt. It also means higher mortgage rates: The spike has already helped push the average rate for a 30-year mortgage above 6% for the first time since 2008.

Going deeper: Still, investors are more nervous about the immediate future than the longer term. That’s spurred an inverted yield curve – when interest rates on short-term bonds move higher than those on long-term bonds. The inverted yield curve is a particularly ominous warning sign that has correctly predicted almost every recession over the past 60 years.

The curve first inverted in April, and then again this summer. The two-year treasury yield has soared in the last week, and now hovers above 4.3%, deepening that gap.

On Monday, a team at BNP Paribas predicted that the inverted gap between the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields could grow to its largest level since the early 1980s. Those years were marked by sticky inflation, interest rates near 20% and a very deep recession.

What’s next: The bond market may face fresh volatility on Friday with the release of the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for August. If the report comes in above expectations, expect bond yields to move even higher.

The Bank of England held an emergency intervention to maintain economic stability in the UK on Wednesday. The central bank said it would buy long-dated UK government bonds “on whatever scale is necessary” to prevent a market crash.

Investors around the globe have been dumping the British pound and UK bonds since the government on Friday unveiled a huge package of tax cuts, spending and increased borrowing aimed at getting the economy moving and protecting households and businesses from sky-high energy bills this winter, reports my colleague Mark Thompson.

Markets fear the plan will drive up already persistent inflation, forcing the Bank of England to push interest rates as high as 6% next spring, from 2.25% at present. Mortgage markets have been in turmoil all week as lenders have struggled to price their loans. Hundreds of products have been withdrawn.

“This repricing [of UK assets] has become more significant in the past day — and it is particularly affecting long-dated UK government debt,” the central bank said in its statement.

“Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability. This would lead to an unwarranted tightening of financing conditions and a reduction of the flow of credit to the real economy.”

Many final salary, or defined-benefit, pension funds were particularly exposed to the dramatic sell-off in longer dated UK government bonds.

“They would have been wiped out,” said Kerrin Rosenberg, UK chief executive of Cardano Investment.

The central bank said it would buy long-dated UK government bonds until October 14.

Steep drops in bond prices may be signaling doom and gloom for the economy, but some analysts say short-term bonds are still looking more attractive than equities right now.

“Record low yields have kept fixed income in the shadow of equities for decades,” said analysts at BNY Mellon Wealth Management in a research note. “But the aggressive shift in Fed policy is beginning to change this.”

Central banks around the globe have responded to elevated inflation by hiking interest rates– and bond yields have increased alongside them. The two-year US Treasury bond is currently yielding nearly 4%. That’s still a relatively low return, but better than the S&P 500’s dividend yield of around 1.7%.

“For the first time in several years, bonds are attractive investment options. In addition to providing diversification versus equities…you now get paid for owning them,” wrote Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management on Wednesday.

Consider the alternative: the S&P is down more than 20% year to date.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its third estimate for Q2 GDP and US weekly jobless claims.

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October 5, 2022
Weekend reads: What to expect now for home prices, stocks and bonds

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This week Freddie Mac said the average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage loan in the U.S. had climbed to 6.70% from 6.29% the week before and 6.02% two weeks ago. The average rate a year ago was 3.01%.

Would-be sellers who have low-rate mortgage loans are reluctant if it means they need to take out a new loan to fund their next home. Would-be buyers are forced out of the market, as the monthly principal and interest payment for a new 30-year loan, based on Freddie Mac’s figures, has increased 53% from a year ago.

Home-sale contracts are being canceled at a record pace in some areas.

But these factors could lead to a buyer’s market in 2023 if prices plunge. Here are the areas economists expect to see the largest home price declines.

The strong dollar and the stock market

Khaled Desouki/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The dollar has strengthened as the Federal Reserve has taken the lead among central banks in raising interest rates. This is reverberating across the world, making it more costly for countries to make interest payments on dollar-denominated debt and increasing the cost of any commodity traded in dollars.

The rising dollar lowers prices on imported goods for Americans and can also lower their international travel costs. But Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist, warns that earnings for the S&P 500
SPX,
-1.51%
would decline as a direct result of the strong dollar and called the current foreign-exchange backdrop an “untenable situation” for the stock market.

On the other hand: Companies are trying to blame weak earnings on the strong U.S. dollar, but that’s a lame excuse

This is what happens when bearish sentiment runs high

Michael Brush interviews David Baron, co-manager of the Baron Focused Growth Fund
BFGFX,
-0.76%,
who describes opportunities cropping up as institutional investors dump stocks. He also explains his winning long-term strategy, which has included a very long-term investment in Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-1.10%.

A a positive sign for the stock market: These 12 stocks have seen strong insider buying

Time to buy bonds?

When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. But it also means that if you have money to put to work, bond yields have become much more attractive.

Khuram Chaudhry, a European equity quantitative strategist at JPMorgan in London, makes the case for buying bonds now.

What about preferred stocks?

Getty Images/iStockphoto

Preferred stocks feature stated dividend yields and prices that move the same way bond prices do. That means prices for many issues are now heavily discounted to face value and that current yields are much higher than they were at the end of 2021. Here’s an in-depth guide on how to research preferred stocks and make your own selections.

Related: 22 dividend stocks screened for quality and safety

The problem with macro market projections

Stanley Druckenmiller predicted a “hard landing” in 2023 for the U.S. economy while speaking at CNBC’s Delivering Alpha Investor Summit on Sept. 28.

Bloomberg

Stanley Druckenmiller predicted a U.S. recession in 2023 as a result of monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. That may not be much of a stretch, considering that the U.S. economy contracted during the first half of 2022, according to revised GDP figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

But investors should be careful — macro forecasts often turn out to be incorrect, Mark Hulbert warns.

More on stocks: It’s the worst September for stocks since 2008. What that means for October.

Recessions and your retirement plans

Getty Images

Alessandra Malito has advice on how retirees and people planning for retirement can prepare for tough economic times.

Also: Reset your retirement calculator now for today’s bleaker stock markets and make sure you’re still on track

Investors tremble and a central bank scrambles

The Bank of England’s headquarters.

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

After the new U.K. government of Prime Minister Liz Truss announced a massive tax cut along with a new spending program to help counter rising fuel costs and new borrowing, the pound hit a new low against the dollar on Sept. 26 as investors and money managers panicked and sold-off U.K. government bonds. Steve Goldstein explains how and why the Bank of England came tot the rescue.

A closer look at reverse mortgages

Getty Images/iStockphoto

Beth Pinsker digs deeply to explain how to use a reverse mortgage as a financial planning tool.

Poking a little fun at Elon Musk

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After Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the upcoming Cybertruck would be sufficiently waterproof to “serve briefly as a boat,” the San Francisco Bay Ferry offered this advice to patrons.

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September 30, 2022
India raises interest rate to 5.90% to tame inflation

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India’s central bank has raised its key interest rate to 5.90% and said developing economy were facing slowing growth, elevated food and energy prices, debt distress and currency depreciation

NEW DELHI — India’s central bank on Friday raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.90% in its fourth hike this year and said developing economies were facing challenges of slowing growth, elevated food and energy prices, debt distress and currency depreciation.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das projected inflation at 6.7% in the current fiscal year which runs to next March. June was the sixth consecutive month with inflation above the central bank’s tolerance level of 6%, he said in a statement after a meeting of the bank’s monitoring committee.

He said the central bank will remain focused on the withdrawal of the accommodative monetary policy.

The bank’s monetary committee slashed the real economic growth forecast to 7% for the current financial year from 7.2% forecast in August. The economic growth for the first quarter of the next financial year is expected around 6.7%.

Das said the world has been confronted with one crisis after another, but India has withstood shocks from the coronavirus pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine.

Das also said the Indian rupee has depreciated by 4% since April against 14% appreciation in the U.S. dollar. “The rupee has fared better than many other currencies” and the Reserve Bank Of India’s foreign exchange reserves umbrella remains strong, he said.

The Indian rupee has plunged to an all-time low of 81.58 rupees to one U.S. dollar.

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September 30, 2022
The UK is gripped by an economic crisis of its own making | CNN Business

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London
CNN Business
—

A week ago, the Bank of England took a stab in the dark. It raised interest rates by a relatively modest half a percentage point to tackle inflation. It couldn’t know the scale of the storm that was about to break.

Less than 24 hours later, the government of new UK Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled its plan for the biggest tax cuts in 50 years, going all out for economic growth but blowing a huge hole in the nation’s finances and its credibility with investors.

The pound crashed to a record low against the US dollar on Monday after UK finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng doubled-down on his bet by hinting at more tax cuts to come without explaining how to pay for them. Bond prices collapsed, sending borrowing costs soaring, sparking mayhem in the mortgage market and pushing pension funds to the brink of insolvency.

Financial markets were already in a febrile state because of the rising risk of a global recession and the gyrations caused by three outsized rate increases from a US central bank on the warpath against inflation. Into that “pressure cooker” stumbled the new UK government.

“You need to have strong, credible policies, and any policy missteps are punished,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

After verbal assurances by the UK Treasury and Bank of England failed to calm the panic — and the International Monetary Fund delivered a rare rebuke — the UK central bank pulled out its bazooka, saying Wednesday it would print £65 billion ($70 billion) to buy government bonds between now and October 14 — essentially protecting the economy from the fallout of the Truss’ growth plan.

“While this is welcome, the fact that it needed to be done in the first place shows that the UK markets are in a perilous position,” said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, commenting on the bank’s intervention.

The emergency first aid stopped the bleeding. Bond prices recovered sharply and the pound steadied Wednesday against the dollar. But the wound hasn’t healed.

The pound tumbled 1%, falling back below $1.08 early Thursday. UK government bonds were under pressure again, with the yield on 10-year debt climbing to 4.16%. UK stocks fell 2%.

“It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if another problem in the financial markets popped up before long,” Dales added.

The next few weeks will be critical. Mohamed El-Erian, who once helped run the world’s biggest bond fund and now advises Allianz

(ALIZF), said that the central bank had bought some time but would need to act again quickly to restore stability.

“The Band-Aid may stop the bleeding, but the infection and the bleeding will get worse if they do not do more,” he told CNN’s Julia Chatterley.

The Bank of England should announce an emergency rate hike of a full percentage point before its next scheduled meeting on November 3. The UK government should also postpone its tax cuts, El-Erian said.

“It is doable, the window is there, but if they wait too long, that window is going to close,” he added.

The UK government has previewed rolling announcements in the coming weeks about how it plans to change immigration policy and make it easier to build big infrastructure and energy projects to boost growth, culminating in a budget on November 23 at which it has promised to publish a detailed plan for reducing debt over the medium term.

But it shows no sign of backing away from the fundamental policy choice of borrowing heavily to fund tax cuts that will mainly benefit the rich at a time of high inflation. And the UK Treasury says it won’t bring forward the November announcement.

Truss, speaking publicly for the first time since the crisis erupted, blamed global market turmoil and the energy price shock from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for this week’s chaos.

“This is the right plan that we’ve set out,” she told local radio on Thursday.

One big problem identified by investors, former central bankers and many leading economists is that her government only set out half a plan at best. It went ahead without an independent assessment from the country’s budget watchdog of the assumptions underlying the £45 billion ($48 billion) annual tax cuts, and their longer term impact on the economy. It fired the top Treasury civil servant earlier this month.

Charlie Bean, former deputy governor at the Bank of England, told CNN Business that the government was guilty of “really stupid” decisions. His former boss at the bank, Mark Carney, accused the government of “undercutting” UK economic institutions, saying that had contributed to the “big knock” suffered by the country’s financial system this week.

“This is an economic crisis. It is a crisis… that can be addressed by policymakers if they choose to address it,” he told the BBC.

British newspapers have started to speculate that Truss will have to fire Kwarteng, her close friend and political soulmate, if she wants to regain the political initiative and prevent her government’s dire poll ratings from plunging even further.

“Every single problem we have now is self-inflicted. We look like reckless gamblers who only care about the people who can afford to lose the gamble,” one former Conservative minister told CNN.

But for now she’s trying to tough it out, and cling onto the Reaganite experiment.

“Raising, postponing, or abandoning tax cuts will be avoided by Truss at all costs as such a reversal would be humiliating and could leave her looking like a lame duck prime minister,” wrote Mujtaba Rahman and Jens Larson at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

The only alternative left to balance the books would be to slash government spending, and that would prove equally politically difficult as the country enters a recession with its public services under enormous strain and a restive workforce that has shown it’s ready to strike in large numbers over pay.

“Truss and Kwarteng are now facing a severe economic crisis as the world’s financial markets wait for them to make policy changes that they and the Conservative party will find unpalatable,” the Eurasia analysts wrote.

The foreign investors who keep the British economy solvent are left scratching their heads for another eight weeks, leaving plenty of time for doubts to surface again about the UK government’s commitment to responsible fiscal policymaking.

“The message of financial markets is that there is a limit to unfunded spending and unfunded tax cuts in this environment and the price of those is much higher borrowing costs,” Carney said.

That leaves the Bank of England in a tight spot. A week ago it was pressing the brakes on the economy to take the heat out of price increases, even as the government tried to juice growth. The task got even harder this week when it was forced to dust off its crisis playbook and bail out the government.

It may not be long before it has to intervene again, this time with an emergency rate hike.

“[Wednesday’s] intervention is designed to stabilize UK government bond prices, keep the bond market liquid and prevent financial instability but that won’t necessarily stop sterling falling further, with its attendant inflationary consequences,” Bean, the former central banker, told CNN Business.

“I think there is still a good chance they will need to act ahead of the November meeting,” he added.

— Julia Horowitz, Luke McGee, Anna Cooban, Rob North, Livvy Doherty and Morgan Povey contributed to this article.

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September 29, 2022
5 ways a debt default could affect you | CNN Politics

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CNN
—

President Joe Biden and House Republicans may have as little as a month to prevent the US from defaulting on its debt, which would impact millions of Americans and unleash economic and fiscal chaos here and around the world.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Monday that the government may not be able to pay all of its bills in full and on time as soon as June 1. However, the forecast was uncertain, and the default date might come several weeks later, she said. The US hit its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling in January, and Treasury has been using cash and “extraordinary measures” to satisfy obligations since then.

Just what would happen if the nation defaults on its debt is unknown since it’s never actually happened before. A close call in 2011 roiled the financial markets and prompted Standard & Poor’s to downgrade the US’ credit rating to AA+ from AAA.

Yellen gave a sense of the turmoil it would cause in her letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday.

“If Congress fails to increase the debt limit, it would cause severe hardship to American families, harm our global leadership position, and raise questions about our ability to defend our national security interests,” she wrote.

To be clear, a debt default doesn’t mean all payments would stop and people would permanently lose out on money they are owed. Treasury would have the funds to satisfy some obligations, but it’s not certain how the agency would handle the disbursements. Much would also depend on how long it takes Congress to address the borrowing cap.

“Tens of millions of people across the country who expect payments from the federal government may not get them on time,” said Shai Akabas, director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Here are five ways that Americans could be affected by debt default:

About 66 million retirees, disabled workers and others receive monthly Social Security benefits. The average payment for retired workers is $1,827 a month in 2023.

Almost two-thirds of beneficiaries rely on Social Security for half of their income, and for 40% of recipients, the payments constitute at least 90% of their income, according to the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.

These payments could be delayed in a debt default scenario, though it’s possible Treasury could continue making on-time payments because of the entitlement program’s trust fund, Akabas said.

The benefits are disbursed four times a month, on the third day of the month and on three Wednesdays. Roughly $25 billion a week is sent out, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

“Even a short delay in the payment of Social Security benefits would be a burden for the millions of Americans who rely on their earned benefits to pay for out-of-pocket health care expenses, food, rent and utilities,” Max Richtman, the committee’s CEO, said in a statement.

Many other government payments could also be affected, including funding for food stamps; federal grants to states and municipalities for Medicaid, highways, education and other programs; and Medicare payments to hospitals, doctors and health insurance plans.

More than 2 million federal civilian workers and around 1.4 million active-duty military members could see their paychecks delayed. Federal government contractors could also see a lag in payments, which could affect their ability to compensate their workers.

Also, certain veterans benefits, including disability payments and pensions for some low-income veterans and their surviving families, could be affected.

“Such calamity would place further stress on our servicemembers, retirees, and veterans, as well as their families, caregivers, and survivors,” Rene Campos, senior director of government relations for the Military Officers Association of America, said in a blog post. “Though life in uniform is not always predictable, those who serve or have served their country expect their country to honor their commitment to service.”

About $25 billion in pay or benefits for active-duty members of the military, civil service and military retirees, veterans and recipients of Supplemental Security Income is sent out on the first day of the month, according to the CBO.

Americans’ investments would take a direct hit. Case in point: Markets had what was then their worst week since the financial crisis during the 2011 debt ceiling standoff after the Standard & Poor’s downgrade.

Even if the debt ceiling impasse is resolved soon after a default, stocks could shed as much as a third of their value. That would wipe out around $12 trillion in household wealth, according to Moody’s Analytics.

If a default occurs, yields on US Treasuries will inevitably rise to compensate for the increased risk that bondholders won’t receive the money they’re owed from the government.

Since interest rates on loans, credit cards and mortgages are often based on Treasury yields, the cost of borrowing money and paying off debt would rise. That’s on top of the increased costs Americans are already facing from the Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Families and businesses would also have a tougher time getting approved for lines of credit since banks would have to be more selective about to whom they loan money. That’s because their costs of borrowing money will also rise, which limits the amount of money they can lend out.

A debt default could trigger an economic downturn, which would prompt a spike in unemployment. It would come at a particularly fragile time – when the nation is already dealing with rising interest rates and stubbornly high inflation.

How much damage would be done would depend on how long the crisis continues. If the default lasts for about a week, then close to 1 million jobs would be lost, including in the financial sector, which would be hard hit by the stock market declines. Also, the unemployment rate would jump to about 5% and the economy would contract by nearly half a percent, according to Moody’s.

But if the impasse dragged on for six weeks, then more than 7 million jobs would be lost, the unemployment rate would soar above 8% and the economy would decline by more than 4%, according to Moody’s. The effects would still be felt a decade from now.

“It would be a body blow to the economy, and it would be a manufactured crisis,” said Bernard Yaros, an economist at Moody’s.

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April 12, 2021