Gold bars of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum.
Sven Hoppe | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Tesla clocks worst week of the year Tesla shares dropped more than 15% last week to close at $211.99 on Friday, marking the worst weekly performance for the stock this year as CEO Elon Musk sounded pessimistic about macroeconomic issues on a recent earnings call. Shares of the electric automaker are still up 96% year-to-date.
Big earnings week Investors will be watching out for an action-packed week of earnings as companies including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Alphabet, General Motors and Ford among others gear up to post their quarterly results. The carmakers will be under the radar this week amid ongoing strikes and contract negotiations with the United Auto Workers union.
X to launch new subscription tiers Owner Elon Musk said X, the social media service formerly known as Twitter, will launch two new tiers of subscriptions for users. One tier will be “lower cost with all features, but no reduction in ads,” while the other is “more expensive, but has no ads,” Musk said.
[PRO] The U.S. is trying to tighten the screws on Chinese AI The artificial intelligence behind ChatGPT-like products and autonomous driving is driving enormous demand for Nvidia’s chips in China. In the past week, however, analysts cut their Nvidia price targets after news the U.S. plans to ban the sale of more high-end semiconductors to China. Here’s what that means for stocks.
Rising Treasury yields, looming interest rate hikes to fight inflation and the heightening conflict in the Middle East drove investors away from risky assets last week.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury crossed 5% for the first time since 2007 on Thursday, a level perceived by markets as a potential drag on the U.S. economy as it could translate to higher rates on mortgages, credit cards, auto loans and more.
A move into safe-haven gold seemed like a sensible bet, given the worsening crisis in the Middle East. Gold was up 2.5% last week, recording its second consecutive weekly rise after adding 5.22% in the prior week.
Investors are now bracing for a heavy week of earnings as Big Tech companies including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft will take centerstage.
“We’re hopefully going to see some continued positive strength there on the economy and what they see going forward,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. “The headlines are scary, for sure. But the fundamentals to us are pretty strong. We’re still seeing earnings season that’s going to come in better than expected.”
This will arrive after a mixed batch of earnings from behemoths like Tesla and Netflix last week. Tesla marked its biggest weekly decline after Elon Musk shared his pessimistic view on the macroeconomic landscape, while Netflix shares soared as markets cheered its new ad-tier subscription plan.
Given the huge role advertisers and subscriptions play for the bottom lines of such firms, it was no surprise that Musk turned his attention to improving the usability of social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.
Musk said. X is gearing up to launch two new tiers of subscriptions for users, in hopes that it could improve the company’s finances and open new revenue streams. Musk’s sweeping changes across the company, including firing most of its employees and reinstating previously banned accounts, scared advertisers away.
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Tesla clocks worst week of the year Tesla shares dropped more than 15% last week to close at $211.99 on Friday, marking the worst weekly performance for the stock this year as CEO Elon Musk sounded pessimistic about macroeconomic issues on a recent earnings call. Shares of the electric automaker are still up 96% year-to-date.
Big earnings week Investors will be watching out for an action-packed week of earnings as companies including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Alphabet, General Motors and Ford among others gear up to post their quarterly results. The carmakers will be under the radar this week amid ongoing strikes and contract negotiations with the United Auto Workers union.
X to launch new subscription tiers Owner Elon Musk said X, the social media service formerly known as Twitter, will launch two new tiers of subscriptions for users. One tier will be “lower cost with all features, but no reduction in ads,” while the other is “more expensive, but has no ads,” Musk said.
[PRO] Earnings playbook Big Tech takes center stage in what could be a make-or-break week for S&P 500 earnings. About 150 S&P 500 companies are slated to report, including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon and Alphabet. Those results come during a tough time for Wall Street, as higher rates and conflict in the Middle East rattle investor sentiment. Here’s how to trade a busy week of earnings.
Rising Treasury yields, looming interest rate hikes to fight inflation and the heightening conflict in the Middle East drove investors away from risky assets last week.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury crossed 5% for the first time since 2007 on Thursday, a level perceived by markets as a potential drag on the U.S. economy as it could translate to higher rates on mortgages, credit cards, auto loans and more.
A move into safe-haven gold seemed like a sensible bet, given the worsening crisis in the Middle East. Gold was up 2.5% last week, recording its second consecutive weekly rise after adding 5.22% in the prior week.
Investors are now bracing for a heavy week of earnings as Big Tech companies including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft will take centerstage.
“We’re hopefully going to see some continued positive strength there on the economy and what they see going forward,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. “The headlines are scary, for sure. But the fundamentals to us are pretty strong. We’re still seeing earnings season that’s going to come in better than expected.”
This will arrive after a mixed batch of earnings from behemoths like Tesla and Netflix last week. Tesla marked its biggest weekly decline after Elon Musk shared his pessimistic view on the macroeconomic landscape, while Netflix shares soared as markets cheered its new ad-tier subscription plan.
Given the huge role advertisers and subscriptions play for the bottom lines of such firms, it was no surprise that Musk turned his attention to improving the usability of social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.
Musk said. X is gearing up to launch two new tiers of subscriptions for users, in hopes that it could improve the company’s finances and open new revenue streams. Musk’s sweeping changes across the company, including firing most of its employees and reinstating previously banned accounts, scared advertisers away.
Here are Tuesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street: Wells Fargo upgrades Air Products to overweight from equal weight Wells said it sees robust earnings growth. “We are upgrading APD to OW from EW given its mega project backlog is expected to come on stream over the next several years boosting EPS growth.” JPMorgan reiterates Alphabet as overweight JPMorgan said it’s standing by its overweight rating heading into earnings next week. ” GOOGL has been the quietest of the FANG names in our discussions w/investors recently, perhaps a function of less controversy & very limited forward outlook provided at earnings.” Wells Fargo initiates Toll Brothers, Lennar, PulteGroup and D.R. Horton as overweight Wells said in its initiation of several homebuilders that “volatility presents opportunity.” “We initiate coverage of U.S. Homebuilding & Building Products, with DHI, LEN , MAS, PHM & TOL OW; KBH, FERG & OC EW; and MHK UW. Recent volatility presents opportunity.” Stifel initiates Amazon as buy Stifel said no other platform can come close to Amazon. “Initiating coverage with a Buy rating and $173 target price. No other e-commerce platform comes close to matching the scale that Amazon has amassed.” Read more about this call here. Raymond James initiates Lam Research and Applied Materials as outperform Raymond James Lam and Applied Materials that the valuations appear reasonable for both names. “We view geopolitical factors as a net neutral and expect any additional risk from China export controls to be modest. Valuations do not appear stretched, and a case can also be made for multiple expansion given higher trough earnings.” Loop initiates Microsoft as buy Loop said growth is set to accelerate for Microsoft. “We are initiating coverage of Microsoft with a Buy rating and $425 PT. In our view, MSFT growth is set to accelerate driven by the two most strategic businesses, Azure and GenAI products (M365 Copilot).” JPMorgan upgrades ViaSat to overweight from neutral JPMorgan said it sees an attractive entry point for the satellite company. ” VSAT shares have sold off ~56% since the 5/31 close of the Inmarsat deal vs SPX +~5%, and we believe the sell-off offers an attractive entry point with the stock now trading at 5.4x our FY25 EBITDA.” JPMorgan upgrades CyberArk to overweight from neutral JPMorgan said it sees “accelerating demand” for the cyber company. “We see opportunity for upside in the wake of accelerating demand as CyberArk has some of the most favorable exposure to high priority Security spending within our coverage.” Evercore ISI reiterates Tesla as in line Evercore said Tesla shares will be volatile. “we raise our price target to $180 from $165 on the rollover to ’26. We believe the recent re-rate due to AI/NVDA correlation will be sustained, but TSLA may see increased volatility the next 6 months on 15% EPS risk to ’24/25 resulting in a very wide $140-$265 range.” Evercore ISI upgrades Mobileye to outperform from in line Evercore said it sees a compelling entry point for the auto tech company. ” MBLY currently trades within our $35-45 ‘corridor’ (25-35x ’25 EPS of $1.20- $1.30) but with the rollover to ’26 probability-weighted EPS of $1.85 would be a $45-65 stock.” Goldman Sachs upgrades Dollar Tree buy from neutral Goldman said in its upgrade of the discount retailer that it sees improving earnings growth. “We are upgrading DLTR to Buy from Neutral, as we see strong earnings growth potential supported by continued market share gains from improving traffic trends with sticky new customers, an improving discretionary cash flow outlook for lower and middle income consumers in 2024, and better shopability/in-stocks after recent investments.” Citi upgrades Sunnova to buy from neutral Citi said the solar company’s valuation is compelling. “While we believe NOVA’s 3Q consensus has downside, valuation is too compelling for us to ignore Goldman Sachs initiates TripAdvisor as buy Goldman said it sees upside to estimates for the travel website company. “For TRIP , our view is that the structural growth profile of the business is changing as metasearch gives way to lower funnel businesses that are exposed to secular growth tailwinds and see upside to Street estimates on the back of faster revenue growth at Viator/Experiences & scale/operating efficiencies leading to better profitability.” Bernstein initiates Exxon Mobil as outperform Bernstein said the oil and gas giant is well positioned. “We rate XOM Outperform. We reach our target price of $140/sh by applying a 7.0x multiple to 2025E EBITDA of $73.5B and incorporating additional FCF to shareholders.” Morgan Stanley upgrades Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said investors should buy the dip in shares of the climate solutions company. “We believe the sell-off in HASI is overdone and incongruous with business fundamentals. Read more about this call here . Bank of America reiterates Apple as neutral Bank of America said its survey checks show iPhone lead times are picking up for Apple. “Our proprietary interactive dashboard shows that iPhone 15 Pro & Pro Max availability picked up from October 9th to October 15th.” JPMorgan initiates Teck Resources as overweight JPMorgan said the metals and mining company is its preferred play. ” Teck is our preferred copper play given its extensive pipeline of copper projects and likely exit from its carbon intensive coal business, which should drive a meaningful rerating.
U.S. tech giants added $2.4 trillion to their market capitalizations in a year defined by the hype around generative artificial intelligence, according to a new report from venture capital firm Accel.
Accel, in its annual Euroscape report, said the share price values of big technology firms such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia rose by an average of 36% year over year.
Nvidia joined the trillion-dollar club for the first time, with the U.S. chip giant now worth over $1 trillion. Nvidia’s high-performance chips power many advanced generative AI models, which produce new content from huge volumes of training data.
The world’s biggest technology companies added $2.5 trillion to their market capitalizations in 2023, according to Accel data.
Accel
Accel’s Euroscape index, which includes massive cloud and software-as-a-service (SaaS) names such as Salesforce, Palantir and Unity, rose 29% in the year to date.
The Euroscape index, which tracks several publicly-listed cloud stocks, is up 29% year-to-date, according to Accel.
Accel
Last year, the picture for cloud and SaaS was grim. Companies saw $1.6 trillion wiped off their value as investors rotated out of high-growth tech stocks, according to Accel. Now, there are signs the pressure is easing.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite returned to 80% of its all-time high within 18 months, according to Accel, marking a faster bounce back than than after the dotcom bust in the 1990s.
The Nasdaq recovered 80% of its all-time high within 18 months.
Accel
It took the Nasdaq around 14 years to reach that milestone, Accel said.
It took the Nasdaq Composite 14 years to recover 80% of its 2000 peak.
Accel
Public multiples for Euroscape companies are also back to a 10-year pre-Covid average of 7.1-times next-twelve-months revenue. Funding for cloud and SaaS companies in Europe, Israel and the U.S. has also reverted to pre-Covid levels.
Public SaaS and cloud company multiples have reverted back to their 10-year, pre-Covid average, according to Accel.
Accel
“We are in a very different time than 2000,” Botteri told CNBC.
“If you look back at 2000, it really took a long time … for the Nasdaq to get back to 80% of its peak. And now, after the 2021 reset, it only took 18 months to get there.”
AI was the primary technology driving the performance of cloud and SaaS in 2023, according to Accel — and it’s not difficult to see why.
The world has been abuzz with talk about generative AI tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Bard and Anthropic’s Claude.
“Generative AI is something that is really redefining software,” Philippe Botteri, partner at Accel, told CNBC on a call Friday.
“Any software company is leveraging generative AI, whether they’re just a startup or a new company or an existing company … You should really think about this as something that is pervasive.”
The U.S. led the way in generative AI funding deals, with the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic raising billions. OpenAI raised the biggest sum — $10 billion — and Inflection came second with $1.3 billion raised.
The number of new unicorns created in 2023 has reverted back to pre-Covid levels — however, AI is a bright spot with a majority of the unicorns now generative AI companies.
Accel
In Europe, three of the biggest generative AI company rounds came out of France — Hugging Face ($235 million), Poolside ($126 million) and Mistral AI ($113 million).
The number of unicorn companies reverted to pre-Covid levels, with AI taking up a much greater proportion of new billion-dollar companies. In Europe and Israel, 40% of new unicorns were in generative AI; in the United States, it was 80%.
This year has been a tough one for tech, with fundraising and valuations dropping sharply as investors grew wary of the sector.
Tech companies tend to prioritize growth and expansion over short-term profits. But investors have been shifting money away from high-growth bets amid higher interest rates, which make the cost of capital more expensive.
Accordingly, the growth rates of Euroscape companies fell from an average of 68% in the first quarter of 2021 to 23% in the second quarter of 2023.
Free cash flow increased on average from -9% to +5% in the same period.
This year, deal-making activity from tech giants hit a snag as regulators clamped down on those firms over concerns that they’d become too large.
There were only 10 transactions involving a Big Tech company this year, Accel noted. That’s down sharply from prior years. In 2021, acquisitions led by FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) hit 27, and in 2022 there were 26 Big Tech deals.
The number of Big Tech-led acquisitions declined sharply in 2023 — down from 26 last year.
Accel
One deal that faced a lot of pressure from regulators was Microsoft’s blockbuster bid to acquire Activision Blizzard, the massive video game studio behind hit titles “Call of Duty,” “Candy Crush” and “Crash Bandicoot.”
The two companies finally sealed the deal last week after British regulators gave their blessing. But that was only after a protracted fight between the two parties.
Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg speaks during Meta Connect event at Meta headquarters in Menlo Park, California on September 27, 2023.
Josh Edelson | AFP | Getty Images
At Meta’s annual Connect conference last month, virtual reality enthusiasts gathered to hear about Mark Zuckerberg’s multibillion-dollar bet on the metaverse, the technology that’s supposed to define the company’s future.
But at this year’s event, VR developers were inundated with panel discussions about a topic that’s quickly becoming less about tomorrow and more about the present: artificial intelligence.
“Don’t tell Mark, but it feels less mixed reality and more AI these days,” joked Joseph Spisak, who joined the company as director of product development for generative AI two months earlier, during his session at Connect. “It kind of feels like an AI conference, which is kind of in my wheelhouse.”
Sandwiched between panels about Meta’s latest Quest 3 VR headset and augmented reality developer software were several sessions dedicated to Llama, Meta’s large language model (LLM) that’s gained popularity since OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot exploded onto the scene in November, sparking a sprint by leading tech companies to bring competitive offerings to market.
Zuckerberg, who changed Facebook’s name to Meta in late 2021 to signal his commitment to the metaverse, reminded Connect attendees that Llama was the power supply to the company’s latest digital assistants unveiled at the conference.
While Zuckerberg still views the growth of the nascent metaverse as critical to his company’s success, AI has emerged as the market he’s trying to win today. Meta views Llama and its family of generative AI software as the open source alternative to GPT, the LLM from Microsoft-backed OpenAI, and Google’s PaLM 2, which powers the search company’s Bard AI technology.
Industry experts compare Llama’s positioning in generative AI to that of Linux, the open source rival to Microsoft Windows, in the PC operating system market. Just as Linux software made its way into corporate servers worldwide and became a key piece of the modern internet, Meta sees Llama as the potential digital scaffolding supporting the next generation of AI apps.
Andrew Bosworth, Chief Technology Officer of Facebook, speaks during Meta Connect event at Meta headquarters in Menlo Park, California on September 27, 2023.
Josh Edelson | AFP | Getty Images
On Wall Street, Llama is hard to value and, for many investors, hard to understand. Because AI researchers are at a premium and the infrastructure required to build and run models requires massive costs, Meta is investing heavily to build Llama, the updated Llama 2 that was introduced in July, and related generative AI software.
After the July announcement, Yann LeCun, the AI researcher Zuckerberg hired in 2013 to lead Facebook’s new AI research group, wrote on Twitter that, “This is going to change the landscape of the LLM market.”
But open source means Meta is giving away the software for free to developers, a dramatically different approach to the traditional software license and subscription models and far afield from the highly lucrative digital ad business that turned Facebook into an internet powerhouse.
In announcing Llama 2, Meta said the new version would have a commercial license that allows companies to integrate it into their products. The company has said it isn’t focused on monetizing Llama 2 directly, but it does earn an undisclosed amount of money from cloud-computing companies like Microsoft and Amazon, which offer access to Llama 2 as part of their own generative AI enterprise services.
Zuckerberg said on the company’s second-quarter earnings call that he doesn’t expect Llama 2 to generate “a large amount of revenue in the near term, but over the long term, hopefully that can be something.”
Meta is looking to benefit from Llama in other ways.
Zuckerberg told analysts in July that improvements made to Llama by third-party developers could result in “efficiency gains,” making it cheaper for Meta to run its AI software. Meta said it expects capital expenditures for 2023 to be in the range of $27 billion to $30 billion, down from $32 billion last year. Finance chief Susan Li said the figure will likely grow in 2024, driven in part by data center-and AI-related investments.
Influence brings its own advantages. If the world’s leading AI researchers use Llama, Meta could have an easier time hiring skilled technologists who understand the company’s approach to development. Facebook has a history of using open source projects, such as its PyTorch coding framework for machine learning apps, as a recruiting tool, luring technologists who want to work on cutting-edge software projects.
Spisak helped oversee PyTorch and other open source AI projects when he worked at Meta from 2018 until January 2023. He left the company for a brief stint at Google and returned to Meta in July.
Meta is also betting that third-party developers will steadily improve Llama 2 and related AI software so that it runs more efficiently, a way of outsourcing research and development to an army of volunteers.
Cai GoGwilt, chief architect of legal tech startup Ironclad, said the open source community worked on the first version of Llama to “make it faster and make it run on a mobile phone.” GoGwilt said his company is waiting to see how enthusiastic developers will bolster Llama 2.
“Part of the reason we’re not immediately using it is because the bigger interest for us is what the open source community is going to do with it,” GoGwilt said.
Meta debuted the original Llama LLM in February, offering it in several different variants ranging from 7 billion parameters to 65 billion parameters, which are essentially variables that influence the size of the model and how much data it processes. In general, more parameters means a more powerful model, with the tradeoff being the cost of running and training the AI software.
Like OpenAI’s GPT and other LLMs, Llama is an example of a transformer neural network, the AI software developed by a team of Google researchers that’s become the foundation for generative AI, which generates smart responses and clever images based on simple text prompts.
To help with the computationally intensive process of training gigantic AI models like Llama, Meta has been using its own Research SuperCluster supercomputer, built to incorporate a whopping 16,000 Nvidia A100 GPUs, the AI industry’s “workhorse” computer chips.
Although Llama was originally incubated inside Meta’s Fundamental AI Research team (FAIR), it’s since moved to the company’s generative AI organization led by Ahmad Al-Dahle, who previously spent over 16 years at Apple. Zuckerberg announcedthe group in late February.
Meta said it took six months to train Llama 2, starting in January and ending in July, using a mix of “publicly available online data,” which doesn’t contain any Facebook user information. It’s unclear whether Meta plans to incorporate user data into the forthcoming Llama 3.
As Zuckerberg strives for efficiency, he’s got his eyes on Nvidia, which is generating billions of dollars in quarterly profits for its AI chips. Meta is one of its biggest customers. Jim Fan, a senior AI science at Nvidia, said in a post on X that it likely cost Meta $20 million to train Llama 2, considerably more than the estimated $2.4 million it took to train its predecessor.
Mainstream adoption of Llama 2 could influence Nvidia to ensure its graphics processing units (GPUs) work well with Meta-sanctioned software, lowering the company’s AI training and computing costs.
Meanwhile, Meta has its own internal AI chip projects, giving it a potential alternative to Nvidia’s processors.
“It gives them some price negotiating room,” said Arjun Bansal, CEO of enterprise startup Log10 and a former AI chip executive. “Nvidia wants to charge a lot and they can be like, ‘Hey, we got our own thing.'”
Nvidia President and CEO Jensen Huang speaks at the COMPUTEX forum in Taiwan, May 28, 2023.
Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Nathan Lambert remembers the energy emanating from his colleagues at AI startup Hugging Face the weekend Meta debuted its much-anticipated Llama 2.
Lambert and his teammates worked overtime to ensure the company’s infrastructure was ready to handle the influx of coders looking to take Llama 2 for a test drive.
Along with cloud-computing engines Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services, Hugging Face was one of Meta’s chosen launch partners for Llama 2, but arguably the most important. Developers, AI researchers and thousands of companies use Hugging Face’s platform to share code, data sets and models, making it one of the industry’s biggest communities.
Although a number of open source LLMs are available, Lambert said Llama 2 is by far the most popular.
“It’s the model that most people are playing with and that most startups are playing with,” said Lambert, who announced on Oct. 4 that he’s leaving Hugging Face though he didn’t say where he’s going.
As with all things Zuckerberg, the project is not without controversy. Some in the industry consider Meta’s licensing agreement to use Llama 2 as limiting, conflicting with the spirit of collaborative development and innovation.
For instance, third-party developers must request approval from Meta to use Llama 2 if they incorporate the software into any products or services that had “greater than 700 million monthly active users” in the month prior to its July release. Critics have said this clause was a way to keep rivals like Snap or TikTok from using Llama 2 for their own services.
“It’s pretty restrictive,” said Umesh Padval, a venture partner at Thomvest Ventures and investor in AI startup Cohere, which builds proprietary LLMs. “It looks like Meta wants all the benefits of open source for their business while keeping the competition away.”
Lambert said Meta could do itself a favor with the open source community and release more details about the specific, underlying datasets used to train Llama 2 so developers could better understand the training process. Open source adherents and privacy experts have pushed for more transparency into what kinds of data has been used to train LLMs, but companies have so far revealed few details.
“We believe in open innovation, and we do not want to place undue restrictions on how others can use our model,” a Meta spokesperson said in a statement. “However, we do want people to use it responsibly. This is a bespoke commercial license that balances open access to the models with responsibility and protections in place to help address potential misuse.”
Despite some detractors, Meta’s model is seeing plenty of early uptake. The company disclosed at Connect that there have been “more than 30 million downloads of Llama-based models through Hugging Face and over 10 million of these in the last 30 days alone.”
Nvidia’s Fan noted in his X post that Llama 2’s new commercial license could lure more companies to experiment with the language model compared to the original Llama.
“AI researchers from big companies were wary of Llama-1 due to licensing issues, but now I think many of them will jump on the ship and contribute their firepower,” Fan wrote.
As of today, businesses investing in AI prefer to use commercially available LLMs, according to a recent TC Cowen survey of 680 firms in cloud computing. The survey found that 32% of respondents have used or plan to use commercially packaged LLMs like OpenAI’s GPT-4 software while 28% were focused on open source LLMs like Llama and Falcon, developed in the United Arab Emirates. Only 12% of respondents planned on using in-house LLMs.
At the U.S. Government Accountability Office, Taka Ariga studies how bleeding-edge technologies like LLMs could help the agency better conduct audits and investigations through its Innovation Lab.
By the end of the year, Ariga’s team is planning to finish its first experiment investigating how LLMs can potentially be used to summarize numerous GAO reports and materials on a particular topic, and then combine those files with various other potentially relevant documentation from other agencies.
“The general public or a member of congress might say, ‘What has the GAO done in the area of nuclear safety?'” Ariga said, regarding the LLM project. “Of course, we have done a lot of work, but that’s sort of report-by-report basis; you can’t do that kind of sort of topical search.”
The GAO is currently using AWS’ Bedrock generative AI service to help the agency experiment with various popular LLMs, including proprietary models offered by startups like Cohere and Anthropic.
While AWS recently said Bedrock will soon support Llama 2, Ariga said the GAO is first testing Anthropic’s Claude LLM and will likely pass on using Llama 2 because of Meta’s poor reputation in Washington.
Meta has earned the ire of lawmakers over the years due to a host of issues, including data privacy scandals, antitrust investigations and allegations that Facebook censors conservative voices, Ariga noted, likening Zuckerberg to Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and owner of X.
“Mark Zuckerberg is, just like Elon, a bit of a lightning rod when it comes to political technology,” Ariga said.
“We know that while AI has brought huge advances to society, it also comes with risk,” Meta’s spokesperson said. “Meta is committed to building responsibly and we are providing a number of resources like our responsible use guide to help those who use Llama 2 do so.”
Even among prospective customers that are unconcerned about reputational issues, Meta has to prove that it has superior LLM technology.
Nur Hamdan, a product manager at AI startup aiXplain, said OpenAI’s GPT-4 is better than Llama 2 at understanding context over long, extended conversations. That means GPT-4 would likely produce conversations in a way that feel more lifelike, Hamadan said.
Tests comparing GPT-4, Llama 2 and other LLMs are becoming routine. In one such test, researchers discovered that GPT-4 was able to generate better software code than Llama 2. Meta has since released a version of Llama 2 specifically for creating code.
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, at an event in Seoul, South Korea, on June 9, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
In today’s land grab, Meta is competing against Amazon, Google and heavily funded startups like OpenAI and Cohere. They’re each aiming to be the cornerstone of next-generation apps. Meta sees open source as a key advantage, versus other companies that are selling the technology and packaging it with other services.
“Somebody like Google or Microsoft, they may all be a little bit conflicted there,” said longtime infrastructure technology executive Guido Appenzeller, who held senior roles at VMware and Intel. “Facebook was not and that’s sort of how they move forward and democratizing this, giving sort of broad access to open source. I think it’s something incredibly powerful.”
A Microsoft spokesperson said in an emailed statement that the company will provide customers with options and let them choose what model they prefer, whether it’s “proprietary, open source, or both.”
“Each foundational model has unique benefits and we hope to make it easy for customers to select, fine-tune, and deploy them responsibly to maximize the outcome from these tools,” Microsoft said.
Representatives from Amazon and Google didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Llama’s impact on the technology industry could rival that of Kubernetes, the open source data center infrastructure software that Google released in 2014, experts said. In giving away Kubernetes, Google dramatically impacted the business models of once hot startups like Docker and CoreOS, which Red Hat acquired in 2018.
Meta is deploying a Kubernetes-like strategy with Llama 2, but in a market that’s expected to be much bigger.
“I’m a fan of Facebook, I understand what Mark has done,” Thomvest’s Padval said. “They’re reinventing the company.”
However, open source doesn’t always win, and Padval acknowledged that “in this case, I don’t know how it’s going to evolve.”
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a Morning Meeting livestream at 10:20 a.m. ET. Here’s a recap of Monday’s key moments. 1. U.S. stocks climbed higher Monday, with both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gaining more than 1% in midmorning trading. Bank stocks were some of Monday’s outperformers, with Club holding Wells Fargo (WFC) up more than 2% following the firm’s quarterly earnings beat on Friday. At the same time, bond yields pushed higher, with that of the 10-year Treasury again rising above 4.7%, ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later this week. And oil prices tumbled more than 1% following last week’s 6% surge, as West Texas Intermediate crude hovered just below $87 a barrel. 2. We rang the register on Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) on Monday, following the announcement of Exxon Mobil ‘s (XOM) $59.5 billion all-stock acquisition of the shale player. We could have held out for the deal to close and become XOM shareholders, while collecting a few dividend payments. But there’s always a possibility the transaction could fall apart, which would likely cause PXD to give back some of the roughly 18% premium Exxon agreed to pay for it. So, we’d rather have the cash on hand to potentially build up our position in Coterra Energy (CTRA) on pullbacks. 3. Piper Sandler named Club holding Microsoft (MSFT) its highest conviction large-cap stock to own into year-end, citing the software giant’s “first-mover advantage” in generative artificial intelligence. Microsoft is set to release its AI assistant — known as M365 Copilot — for products like like Office, Word and Excel to the general public on Nov. 1. This is definitely a stock we continue to like and would look for further opportunities to pick up more shares on weakness. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC, CTRA, MSFT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft Corp., during the company’s Ignite Spotlight event in Seoul, Nov. 15, 2022.
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Microsoft has closed its $69 billion acquisition of video game publisher Activision Blizzard, according to a regulatory filing by the company Friday. It’s Microsoft’s largest deal in its 48-year history and comes after the company quelled concerns about competition from U.K. and European regulators and gained a favorable ruling from a U.S. district judge.
The deal gives Microsoft a hefty portfolio of video game franchises, including Call of Duty, Crash Bandicoot, Diablo, Overwatch, StarCraft, Tony Hawk Pro Skater and Warcraft. The game developer generated $7.5 billion in revenue in its latest fiscal year, a small fraction of the $212 billion in sales reeled in by Microsoft.
“Today we start the work to bring beloved Activision, Blizzard, and King franchises to Game Pass and other platforms,” Microsoft Gaming CEO Phil Spencer said in a blog post. “We’ll share more about when you can expect to play in the coming months.”
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who took the helm in 2014, is aiming to diversify the company’s business beyond its core areas such as operating systems and productivity software. Activision has been both a partner to Microsoft and a competitor. It’s one of the few large companies that releases popular games that can cost hundreds of millions of dollars to produce.
Regulatory pushback delayed the acquisition. When it announced the deal in January 2022, Microsoft said it expected to close the transaction by the end of June 2023. In July, the two companies agreed to extend the deadline to Oct. 18.
The Federal Trade Commission in the U.S., the European Commission and the U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority all raised objections to the transaction.
Microsoft made concessions that placated European regulators. The company agreed to give consumers in the European Economic Area free licenses to stream their Activision Blizzard games, along with free licenses to streaming providers so European gamers can play the games through the cloud.
Microsoft signed agreements with console rivals Nintendo and Sony, promising them access to Call of Duty games for 10 years. And Microsoft made similar arrangements with cloud-gaming providers, including Boosteroid, Nvidia, Nware and Ubitus.
The FTC In July asked the San Francisco federal district court for a preliminary injunction to stop Microsoft and Activision from closing their deal before receiving full approval. But after five days of hearings, a judge sided with the two companies. The agency took the case to the U.S. Appeals Court for the 9th Circuit, which denied a motion to temporarily stop the consummation of the deal.
Satisfying U.K. officials was more complicated. In August, Microsoft said that, assuming the deal closed, game publisher Ubisoft would receive cloud streaming rights for Activision’s games for 15 years. That change to the proposal should resolve lingering concerns about the deal, the CMA said Sept. 22.
The FTC said Friday it still has concerns.
“We remain focused on the federal appeal process despite Microsoft and Activision closing their deal in advance of a scheduled December appeals court hearing,” FTC spokesperson Victoria Graham said. “Microsoft and Activision’s new agreement with Ubisoft presents a whole new facet to the merger that will affect American consumers, which the FTC will assess as part of its ongoing administrative proceeding. The FTC continues to believe this deal is a threat to competition.”
Activision ended the second quarter with $587 million in net income on $2.2 billion in revenue, which was up 34% year over year.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Wednesday he sees conditions that could spur a stock market rally, following a challenging few weeks on Wall Street. The biggest factor in this, he said, arrives Friday with the government’s official September jobs report.
“We certainly have plenty of tinder for a rally — there are some Kingsfords lying around, maybe even a Duraflame or two,” he said. “You get a weak payroll number on Friday, then I think we can get a narrow repeat of the rebound we saw in March.”
To Cramer, Friday’s nonfarm payroll report is the only set of government data with “true staying power.” If the figures show more layoffs than expected, he said, the Federal Reserve may be less inclined to raise interest rates, which would likely please the market. However, he added that this potential economic weakness could hurt plenty of sectors, including retailers, banks and housing.
Cramer suggested recent market conditions may end up being similar to those in February and March, where stocks sold off due to concerns about the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and the collapse of multiple regional banks. But this weakness soon gave way to a tech-fueled rally, he said.
He added that he’s not sure whether the “uniform negativity” on Wall Street — especially talk of declining bond prices — means a bottom, but to him, it’s a possibility.
“Maybe all that needs to happen is for the frantic bond sellers to slow the pace of their sales — they don’t even have to stop, they just have to be less desperate,” he said. “Once that happens, we can finally focus on the myriad stocks that’ve been crushed for weeks now, many of which don’t deserve it. No need to jump the gun, though. We’ll find out soon enough.”
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Disclaimer The CNBC Investing Club Charitable Trust holds shares of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia and Meta.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella arrives at federal court on October 2, 2023 in Washington, DC. Nadella is testifying in the antitrust trial to determine if Alphabet Inc.’s Google maintains a monopoly in the online search business, which is expected to last into November.
Drew Angerer | Getty Images
When it comes to online search, it’s Google’s web and everyone else is playing in it, according to rival Microsoft.
That was the essence of Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella’s testimony in federal court on Monday as part of the government’s antitrust trial against Google. Nadella told the court that Google’s dominant market share in online search means that publishers and advertisers shape their content to Google’s requirements, making it harder for competitors like Microsoft’s Bing to gain a foothold.
“Everybody talks about the open web, but there is really the Google web,” Nadella said from the stand in Washington, D.C., District Court. Nadella was referring to the way publishers often cater their content and advertising to Google’s products, like by optimizing their pages for how Google ranks search results.
Nadella was questioned by lawyers for the Department of Justice and a coalition of state attorneys general who are suing Google for allegedly violating antitrust laws by illegally maintaining a monopoly in the general search market. The government argues that Google locked up distribution channels for general search engines through exclusive deals with browser and phone makers to be the default choice on various devices. Perhaps the most famous of those deals is the multibillion-dollar agreement between Google and Apple to make Google search the default on Apple products like the iPhone.
The government has tried to make the case that Google’s dominance, aided by these exclusive deals, creates a flywheel effect, where greater exposure to users leads to more data to make Google’s search results better and attracts more advertisers to the product. That, in turn, generates more revenue that can be used to fund these massive distribution deals.
Meanwhile, the government argues, it becomes even harder for rivals to breakthrough to consumers, and as a result, they miss out on the opportunity for greater benefits or innovations in search.
Nadella affirmed that argument in his testimony Monday, describing the obstacles a general search competitor like Bing faces to gain more market share from Google.
Google declined to comment on Nadella’s testimony.
Microsoft was prepared to take on billions of dollars in short-term losses for Bing to pay Apple enough to make its search engine the default on Apple products, Nadella testified. Not only would Microsoft have to replace the revenue Apple currently receives from Google for default placement, which Bernstein has estimated could be as much as $19 billion this year, Nadella said it would also need to cover the risk Apple would take on by switching the default.
Nadella has “focused every year of my tenure as CEO to see if Apple would be open” to accepting a default offer from Microsoft and they’ve had “a series of dialogues on it.”
The Microsoft CEO said he recognized the reputational risk of switching the default but pointed to an example from Apple’s own history as to why he believed it could be overcome. When Apple first launched its maps app, it was widely panned as inaccurate or incomplete. But after a period of “turbulence,” Nadella said, it’s become popular, in large part due to the fact that Apple makes it the default on its phones.
Williams & Connolly’s John Schmidtlein, representing Google, referenced a document during cross-examination that said Bing’s share on Windows was roughly 24%. Schmidtlein asked why Nadella thought that percentage would convince Apple to switch its Safari default to Bing, given Bing was able to have “100% distribution” on Microsoft Windows.
Nadella said the most important thing was showing that Bing could hold on to users with defaults, despite Google’s dominance. He said that argument “was the only reason they kept engaging,” referring to Apple.
If Apple were to strike a deal with Microsoft, it may choose to use Bing’s technology while branding it as its own Apple search engine, he said.
Schmidtlein also walked Nadella through past attempts Microsoft has made to make Bing the default on various mobile devices, which were met with public criticism or resulted in many consumers switching to Google anyway. For example, he brought up a 2010 Washington Post article that criticized the decision to make Bing the default search engine on a new Android phone offered by Verizon at the time.
But Nadella said that kind of feedback actually informed his later conversations with Apple while seeking to make Bing the default on its devices, because he was clear-eyed about the challenges both companies would initially need to navigate should such a deal occur.
Throughout his testimony, Nadella discussed why Microsoft has chosen to stay in search despite the difficulties, describing how the company is remaining persistent and continuing to wait for the right opportunity to shake up the market.
The tech company wants to “make search more competitive,” Nadella said, by running it like a “public utility.”
The idea that users have complete choice to switch their defaults is “complete bogus,” Nadella said, adding that changing default settings on mobile platforms is difficult because “they’re all locked up.”
Becoming the default isn’t just about getting an influx of new users. It also involves getting more signals from users about what they’re searching and clicking on. That sort of information can help inform decisions at the search engine to make the results more useful and tailored to users’ needs.
Even though Microsoft remains, as Nadella put it, a “very, very low-share player,” in the general search market, he said the company still believes there’s an opportunity to innovate in what he sees as the “largest software category out there.” He said that when he became CEO in 2014 he focused on making Bing profitable to continue making investments, which it now is.
While maintaining its low-share position, Nadella said he awaits a “paradigm shift” that could create a window of opportunity for Bing, like the one created for Google by the concessions resulting from Microsoft’s own antitrust challenge from the government at the turn of the century.
In the meantime, Nadella estimated that Microsoft has invested about $100 billion in Bing over the past 20 years.
“It’s a hard game to make any breakthroughs, but no one can accuse us of not being persistent,” Nadella said.
Building a new rival from the ground up is very difficult because it involves both fixed costs and costs that scale up as you gain market share, Nadella said. In Silicon Valley, internet search is considered one of the biggest “no fly zones,” he added.
The one place Bing has seen some success is in desktop search, in large part because it’s able to set Bing as the default on its Edge browser, which many PC manufacturers choose to preinstall to receive a discount on licensing Microsoft’s software.
Even there, however, many users opt to use Google’s Chrome browser and its search engine on Windows devices. Nadella said Google’s position on Windows desktops shows how open Microsoft’s own ecosystem is. He admitted, though, that Google is still the most commonly queried word on Bing.
Still, questioning by Google’s lawyer seemed to drive at the idea that Microsoft did not sufficiently invest in mobile search, pointing to emails where executives estimated Google had many more people working on mobile search than Microsoft did. Nadella said he focused resources where they could gain the most traction, like on desktop, and greater distribution would help justify greater expenditure.
Later asked by a government lawyer why Google would pay so much if it were the case that it would retain more Safari search queries even if Bing were the default, Nadella said he’d “love an opportunity” for Google not to have to pay.
“Maybe on behalf of the Google shareholders,” he added.
The state AGs are also seeking to show that Google leveraged its search ad tools to disadvantage rivals like Bing by failing to make them sufficiently interoperable with other products. Microsoft has sought to make it so advertisers can move their campaigns seamlessly between Google and Bing’s search ad tools, but Google hasn’t been receptive, Nadella said.
Though Nadella said he doesn’t remember exactly where everything stands in their discussions, he summarized it as, “We keep asking for them to add some features that we want and I think they ask us to go pound sand.” He said the integration issues with Google’s Search Ads 360 “keeps coming up in escalations” to him.
Through advertiser roundtables, Nadella said he’s found that many believe there’s an opportunity cost they have to weigh between investing time and money into Bing versus Google’s platform, given it’s not as easy as it could be to transfer campaigns, and Google has the bigger audience.
As artificial intelligence becomes increasingly prevalent in search, Nadella said he worries that Google will leverage its position to block off even more avenues to rivals. Microsoft has begun integrating ChatGPT into its Bing search results through its partnership with OpenAI and is a leading player in the space, alongside Google. But despite the early progress, Nadella says he worried about being cut off from key datasets that could be used to train the technology.
“I worry a lot, even in spite of my enthusiasm, that there is a new angle with AI,” Nadella said. “I worry a lot that this vicious cycle I’m trapped in can become even more vicious.”
That’s because Google could seek to make it so that content in its search engine and on its video platform YouTube are exclusively used to train its own AI large language models (LLMs).
Competing with Google’s core economic advantage will “become even harder in the AI age,” Nadella said.
He said he’s wondered if AI will make it “even worse of a nightmare to make progress in search because there’s a new avenue to lock up — the thing that basically feeds the power of these LLMs, which is content.”
The growth of artificial intelligence is creating a multitrillion dollar opportunity poised to benefit these software and technology stocks, according to Morgan Stanley. “While much of the early discussion on the use of Generative AI since the launch of ChatGPT late last year focused around the consumer opportunity, we see perhaps a more foundational opportunity in the ability for Generative AI to expand the scope of what types of work and business processes can now be automated with enterprise software,” wrote analyst Keith Weiss in a Sunday note to clients. Based on its proprietary survey work, the Wall Street firm projects that 44% of labor will be impacted by AI over the next three year, and $4.1 trillion in associated labor costs. That’s up from an estimated 25% and $2.1 trillion at present. Some of the big winners from this transition include software vendors poised to capture about 5% of the total labor market impact and benefit from the estimated $150 billion uptick in generative AI software spending. Some IT, internet and semiconductor names also look well situated to capitalize. Here are some of Morgan Stanley’s top picks to play the trend: It’s no surprise that 2023’s AI beneficiaries Microsoft , Alphabet and Nvidia made the cut. Nvidia shares have more than tripled this year as investors bet on the promise of its graphics processing units fueling many AI models. The firm’s price target implies about 45% upside for shares. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia shares year to date “We see the supplier concentration in the high-end training GPU market persisting for the next several years with NVDA retaining its dominant position, but as deployment scales significant opportunities should emerge for those who can provide compelling inference performance at low costs,” wrote analyst Joe Moore. For Alphabet, Morgan Stanley forecasts that every 2% of AI spending could drive 5% upside to the company’s cloud platform, and account for $3 billion in incremental revenue by 2026. Shares have jumped more than 50% this year as the company battles it out with Microsoft for its competing AI chatbot. The price target implies 18% upside from Alphabet’s close on Friday. New AI offerings boost the firm’s confidence in the “durability of long term growth and calm fears around competition” for Alphabet. Within the software space, the Morgan Stanley also highlighted Adobe as a long term beneficiary, noting that generative AI could accelerate EPS growth back toward the mid-high teens. “Generative AI functionality into existing workflows of a broad base of subscribers, enabling stickier customer engagement and opportunity to monetize incremental productivity provided to users,” the firm said. Other potential software winners include MongoDB and Five9 , a provider of call and contact center services. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting
Shares of AMD rose 5% Thursday, a day after Microsoft’s technology chief said the chipmaker is bolstering its position in artificial intelligence, where Nvidia dominates.
So far this year, Nvidia shares have almost tripled while AMD is up about 60%. Since the launch in late 2022 of OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot, the tech industry has been swarming to new large language models, which require hefty processing power.
Nvidia’s graphics processing units are handling so much of those workloads that the company is forecasting 170% year-over-year revenue growth in the current quarter. AMD announced in June that during the third quarter, it would start sampling its MI300X chip with clients. Those GPUs were designed specifically for AI models.
“They’re making increasingly compelling GPU offerings that I think are going to become more and more important to the marketplace in the coming years,” Kevin Scott, Microsoft’s chief technology officer, said at the Code Conference in Dana Point, California, on Wednesday.
Microsoft and AMD are longtime partners, and it’s in Microsoft’s interest to have more high-powered chips on the market from a broader set of vendors. For years, Microsoft has offered some AMD GPUs to its Azure cloud customers, in addition to powering some of its computers and its Xbox consoles with AMD chips.
In May, AMD said Microsoft had started offering a cloud networking service to clients, drawing on the chipmaker’s Pensando products.
At Code, The Verge’s Nilay Patel asked Scott how easy it would be to adopt AMD’s GPUs at scale and move away from Nvidia. Scott declined to answer directly, saying that developers using the AI programming tools shouldn’t need to think about the hardware under the hood.
Scott did note that “competition is certainly a very good thing.”
Bloomberg reported in May that AMD was working with Microsoft on a custom AI chip, but Scott declined to say if that’s actually happening. Microsoft’s cloud rivals Amazon and Google have developed homegrown silicon.
Micron Technology Inc. is far from out of the woods yet when it comes to profitability as quarterly results came in better than expected Wednesday, but the memory-chip maker’s chief executive was upbeat about data-center sales in 2024 as AI fever rages on.
While the Boise, Idaho-based chip maker topped expectations for its fiscal fourth quarter, it forecast a loss of $1.14 to $1 a share on revenue of $4.2 billion to $4.6 billion for the fiscal first quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet, however, had forecast, on average, a loss of 88 cents a share on revenue of $4.24 billion.
Micron also expects negative gross margins for a fourth consecutive quarter in the fiscal first quarter, between a 6% and 2% loss, which Micron Chief Financial Officer Mark Murphy said on the call assumed no additional inventory write-down because of memory-chip pricing.
Following gross margins of 22.9% reported in the first quarter of fiscal 2023, gross margins swung sharply to negative-31.4% as Micron reported its largest quarterly loss on record in March, writing off more than $1.4 billion in inventory. Those margins improved to negative-16.1% in the third quarter. On Wednesday, those continued to improve sequentially, to negative-9.1% in the fourth quarter.
Additionally, the company said it is still experiencing headwinds from China’s cybersecurity review of the company’s products, which surfaced in March.
Micron MU, +0.40%
shares declined nearly 4% after hours Wednesday following a 0.4% rise to close the regular session at $68.21.
On a conference call, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra told analysts he expects revenue from high-bandwidth memory chips designed for data centers “to begin in early 2024,” and that the company is “very much still on track for meaningful revenue, several hundred million dollars in our fiscal year 2024.”
Back in July, Micron and Nvidia Corp. NVDA, +1.33%
announced that Nvidia was using Micron’s HBM3 Gen2 high-bandwidth memory 1-beta DRAM chips in its AI data-center products. As the AI frenzy has raged on all year, data centers that must handle the enormous amounts of data and throughput required by AI models like Open AI’s ChatGPT, backed by Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +0.21%,
have boosted demand for hardware.
Micron specializes in making DRAM and NAND memory chips. DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, is the type of memory commonly used in PCs and data-center servers, while NAND chips are the flash memory chips used in smaller devices like smartphones and USB drives.
In the company’s last earnings report, Mehrotra called the bottom in the memory-chip market, but warned that smartphone and PC weakness could cut into AI gains. This time around, the CEO said smartphone and PC markets were “now at normal levels.”
For the fiscal fourth quarter, Micron reported a loss of $1.43 billion, or $1.31 a share, versus net income of $1.49 billion, or $1.35 a share, in the year-ago period.
The adjusted loss, which excludes stock-based-compensation expenses and other items, was $1.07 a share, versus adjusted earnings of $1.45 a share in the year-ago period. Revenue fell to $4.01 billion from $6.64 billion in the year-ago quarter.
Analysts had forecast Micron to report a fourth-quarter loss of $1.15 a share on revenue of $3.95 billion.
Micron shares are up 36.5% year to date, compared with a 32.8% gain by the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX,
an 11.3% gain by the S&P 500 index SPX
and a 25.1% rise in the Nasdaq Composite COMP.
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Cautious markets U.S. stocks fell for a third consecutive day as Treasury yields continued rising to multiyear highs. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Friday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose almost 1% as the city’s inflation held steady at 1.8% in August. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.42% after the country’s central bank maintained its negative interest rates.
Holding fast The Bank of Japan left its ultra-loose monetary policy untouched at its Friday meeting. That is, the bank kept its short-term interest rates at -0.1% and maintained the cap of its 10-year Japanese government bond yield at around zero. But with the Japanese yen weakening against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks, economists think the BOJ might be forced to tighten policy sooner than expected.
Securing business and the internet Cisco is acquiring Splunk, a cybersecurity software company, for $157 a share in a cash deal. The total deal’s worth $28 billion — about 13% of Cisco’s market capitalization — making it the company’s largest acquisition ever. Cisco’s known for making computer networking equipment, but has been boosting its cybersecurity business recently to grow its revenue stream.
New top of the class Singapore is the world’s freest economy, according to a 2023 report by Canada think tank Fraser Institute. It’s the first time since 1970, when the rankings started, that Hong Kong lost its top spot. “Hong Kong’s recent turn is an example of how economic freedom is intimately connected with civil and political freedom,” said Fraser Institute’s senior fellow, Matthew Mitchell.
[PRO] Value over growth U.S. markets have been having two bad months. Growth-focused technology stocks, in particular, are struggling in an environment of higher-for-longer interest rates. But that means the time’s ripe to look at European value stocks. Here’s a list of 10 stocks Citi analysts recommend — comprising a mix of quality and risky ones with more potential upside.
Four months after hype over artificial intelligence fired up markets, the rally’s starting to look more like a hallucination — a confident but false claim AI models are prone to making.
For evidence, look no further than Nvidia, the spark that ignited the whole blaze. Shares of the chipmaker peaked on Aug. 24 and have tumbled 18.4% since. While it’s true Nvidia’s still up 181% for the entire year, that’s 60 percentage points lower than its August peak, when shares were 244% higher.
Microsoft’s announcement of a broad rollout of Copilot — the company’s AI tool — to corporate clients didn’t stoke excitement. On the contrary, Microsoft shares dipped 0.39% after the company’s event. By contrast, recall how share prices popped to a record in May after the company announced the pricing of the Copilot subscription service.
In short, investor interest in AI — while still hot in comparison with other sectors — looks like it’s simmering down.
“The combination of waning retail demand and cautious risk sentiment among institutional investors may pose a substantial risk to the AI sector, potentially heralding a pronounced reversal in the weeks ahead,” said Vanda Research’s senior vice president Marco Iachini.
Blame the usual suspects for this lukewarm sentiment. Higher-for-longer interest rates — and Treasury yields — caused by spiking oil prices and a tight labor market. (Initial jobless claims for last week dropped to their lowest level since late January, according to the U.S. Labor Department.)
Against that backdrop, it’s unsurprising major indexes had a bad day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.08%, the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.82% and the S&P 500 lost 1.64%, the most in a day since March. All three indexes are poised for a losing week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq the deepest in the red so far.
If it’s any comfort, September — the worst month for stocks, historically — ends in a week. Investors will hope it’ll pass like a bad dream, or a banished hallucination.
Signage for Nvidia Corp. during the Taipei Computex expo in Taipei, Taiwan, on Tuesday, May 30, 2023.
Hwa Cheng | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Infectious pessimism U.S. stocks fell for a third consecutive day as Treasury yields continued rising to multiyear highs. The pan-European Stoxx 600 slumped 1.3% amid a flurry of central bank decisions. Sweden hiked rates by 25 basis points to 4%; Norway raised its rate from 4% to 4.25%; Switzerland kept rates unchanged. For more central bank decisions, see below.
A halt and a big hike The Bank of England elected to keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, breaking a series of 14 straight rate hikes. But the decision wasn’t unanimous: Four out of nine members voted for another 25-basis-point hike to 5.5%. In other central bank news, Turkey hiked its interest rate to 30%, a 5-percentage-point jump from 25%.
Securing business and the internet Cisco is acquiring Splunk, a cybersecurity software company, for $157 a share in a cash deal. The total deal’s worth $28 billion — about 13% of Cisco’s market capitalization — making it the company’s largest acquisition ever. Cisco’s known for making computer networking equipment, but has been boosting its cybersecurity business recently to grow its revenue stream.
Succession Rupert Murdoch is stepping down as chairman of the board of Fox Corp and News Corp in November. The 92-year-old will be succeeded by his son Lachlan Murdoch. Fox Corp is the parent company of Fox News, a TV channel embroiled in a $787.5 million settlement this year over false claims that Dominion Voting Systems’ machines swayed the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
[PRO] ‘Uninvestable’ banking sector Steve Eisman, the investor who called — and profited from — the subprime mortgage crisis that began in 2007, thinks “the whole bank sector is uninvestable.” Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March this year, sparking panic and causing depositors to withdraw money at other regional banks. But that’s not the only risk to banks weighing on Eisman’s mind.
Four months after hype over artificial intelligence fired up markets, the rally’s starting to look more like a hallucination — a confident but false claim AI models are prone to making.
For evidence, look no further than Nvidia, the spark that ignited the whole blaze. Shares of the chipmaker peaked on Aug. 24 and have tumbled 18.4% since. While it’s true Nvidia’s still up 181% for the entire year, that’s 60 percentage points lower than its August peak, when shares were 244% higher.
Microsoft’s announcement of a broad rollout of Copilot — the company’s AI tool — to corporate clients didn’t stoke excitement. On the contrary, Microsoft shares dipped 0.39% after the company’s event. By contrast, recall how share prices popped to a record in May after the company announced the pricing of the Copilot subscription service.
In short, investor interest in AI — while still hot in comparison with other sectors — looks like it’s simmering down.
“The combination of waning retail demand and cautious risk sentiment among institutional investors may pose a substantial risk to the AI sector, potentially heralding a pronounced reversal in the weeks ahead,” said Vanda Research’s senior vice president Marco Iachini.
Blame the usual suspects for this lukewarm sentiment. Higher-for-longer interest rates — and Treasury yields — caused by spiking oil prices and a tight labor market. (Initial jobless claims for last week dropped to their lowest level since late January, according to the U.S. Labor Department.)
Against that backdrop, it’s unsurprising major indexes had a bad day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.08%, the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.82% and the S&P 500 lost 1.64%, the most in a day since March. All three indexes are poised for a losing week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq the deepest in the red so far.
If it’s any comfort, September — the worst month for stocks, historically — ends in a week. Investors will hope it’ll pass like a bad dream, or a banished hallucination.
Jonathan Kanter, Assistant Attorney General for the Antitrust Division at the Department of Justice, arrives at federal court on September 12, 2023 in Washington, DC.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images
Google pays billions of dollars to make sure its search engine runs by default on internet browsers and phones, feeding a cycle that pumps its own monopoly profits while making it harder for rivals to gain significant market share in search, the government alleged in opening arguments Tuesday at the biggest tech antitrust trial in decades.
Lawyers for the Department of Justice and a coalition of state attorneys general led by Colorado faced Google on Tuesday, as the 10-week trial kicked off in Washington, D.C. District Court. Day one of the trial set the stage for how the government and Google would argue their opposing views of how the company has maintained a large slice of the search market for years.
The government’s case is that Google has kept its share of the general search market by creating strong barriers to entry and a feedback loop that sustained its dominance.
Google says it’s simply been the preferred choice of consumers. That popularity, the company says, is why browser and phone makers have chosen Google as their default search engine through revenue sharing agreements.
The opening statements also previewed who each side will lean on to help make their arguments. In addition to economic experts that will speak to Google’s level of dominance and behavior, Google said the court would hear from several of its own executives and those from other businesses.
The court will hear from the company’s CEO Sundar Pichai, who the DOJ’s lawyer said Google intends to call. It will also hear from Apple’s Senior Vice President of Services Eddy Cue and Mozilla CEO Mitchell Baker, Google’s lawyer said. Several other Google executives, including those who oversee advertising services and search products, are also expected to be witnesses, the lawyer added.
Additionally, the court will hear from Sridhar Ramaswamy, a former senior advertising executive for Google who later co-founded a competitor search engine, Neeva, the DOJ said. The privacy-focused search engine founded in 2019 announced in May that it would shut down the consumer product and instead focus on artificial intelligence use cases. Neeva agreed that month to be acquired by Snowflake.
Following opening statements, the DOJ lawyer questioned its first witness, as it begins what’s known as its “case-in-chief.” The judge has allotted about four weeks for the DOJ to present its case, after which the coalition of state AGs led by Colorado will do so, followed by Google.
Hal Varian, chief economist at Google Inc., arrives to federal court in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2023.
Ting Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The DOJ’s lawyer walked Google’s Chief Economist Hal Varian through a series of documents, beginning with a 2003 memo he wrote called “Thoughts on Google v Microsoft.” At the time he wrote the memo, Varian said he was reporting to a boss who reported directly to the CEO.
In the memo, Varian had raised antitrust concerns with Google leaders, urging them to “be careful about what we say in both public and private” on the subject. Varian wrote, “we should also consider entry barriers, switching costs and intellectual property when prioritizing products.” During his testimony, Varian said the best entry barrier is a superior product.
“This case is about the future of the internet and whether Google’s search engine will ever face meaningful competition,” the DOJ’s lawyer, Kenneth Dintzer, told the court in his opening statements.
Dintzer alleged Google has more than 89% of the market for general search, citing an economic expert witness. General search is used by consumers as an “onramp to the internet,” Ditzner said, making it distinct from more specialized search engines. Unlike with a specialized search service, users seek out a general search engine when they don’t know the best website for an answer to their question.
“There are no substitutes for general search,” Ditzner said.
Google maintains its monopoly through a feedback loop that serves to strengthen its hold on the market while making it harder for rivals to enter. Google pays for defaults, which allow it to get more search queries. More queries means more data, which can be used to improve search quality, helping Google make more money. That gives Google more resources to pay for default status.
Since the Federal Trade Commission declined to bring an antitrust case against Google nearly 10 years ago, Patterson Belknap Webb & Tyler’s William Cavanaugh, who represents the states, said “Google has doubled down on its efforts to use defaults in its distribution agreements.”
Google itself recognizes the immense value of defaults. The company pays more than $10 billion per year to maintain default status across browsers and devices, the DOJ alleged. And the company once called the idea of losing its default placement with Apple “a code red situation,” Ditzner said.
At the same time, Google sought to “limit Apple’s ability to design products that compete with Google,” given it has the resources and foundation to build a powerful rival, Ditzner said.
In 2013, Ditzner told the court, Apple adopted its own suggestions in its browser when users begin a search. The feature “concerned” Google, Joan Braddi vice president of product partnerships at Google, later said in an email Ditzner referenced.
In turn, Google added to the revenue sharing agreement with Apple a stipulation that it could not “expand farther than what they were doing in Sept 2016 (as we did not wish for them to bleed off traffic),” Braddi wrote. “Also, they can only offer a ‘Siri’ suggestion exclusively for quality and not because they want to drive traffic to Siri.”
While Google argued browser and device makers freely enter agreements to make its search engine the default, the DOJ said Google has the upper hand in getting device manufacturers to sign its agreements. For example, manufacturers consider the Play Store a “must-have app” for Android phones, Ditzner said, but the only way to get it is by signing the exclusivity agreements.
The evidence will show device manufacturers and carriers accepted the exclusivity and revenuesharing agreements “because that was the only option,” Ditzner said.
In 2020, Samsung and AT&T were interested in partnering with Branch Metrics, which had a search engine that could answer questions by searching apps on a phone, the DOJ said. But Google told AT&T and Branch they couldn’t do the deal. Google’s lawyer later said there’s no evidence the company told carriers they couldn’t use Branch. Google’s lawyer added that Branch’s CEO would testify that it doesnn’t compete with Google.
The states also touched on their claims that Google used what was supposed to be a neutral ad buying tool to thwart rival Microsoft. Google will say it had no duty to deal with Microsoft, Cavanaugh said, but that doesn’t apply here because “they have chosen to deal.”
Finally, the government said the court would hear more about Google’s alleged document destruction, saying that it taught employees to hide evidence through its “Communicate With Care” program. Google told employees to include legal on “any written communication” about revenue share agreements, the government alleged. The DOJ also shared a 2021 message from Pichai in which he asked if he and a colleague could “change the setting of this group to history off,” before deleting the request.
Kent Walker, President of Global Affairs and Chief legal officer of Alphabet Inc., arrives at federal court on September 12, 2023 in Washington, DC.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images
Google said it faces fierce competition and that the popularity of its search engine is due to its continued innovation, rather than efforts to thwart rivals.
In a world where search queries are increasingly entered across many different apps and websites, Google’s lawyer, Williams & Connolly’s John Schmidtlein said, “that competition has never been more real.”
Comparing the case to the DOJ’s 1990s allegations against Microsoft is misguided, Schmidtlein said. While the government accused Microsoft in that case of forcing PC manufacturers to preload its own browser over one that was preferred by consumers, here Google competed for default status, Schmidtlein said.
To the government, Microsoft is the supposed “victim” in this case, Schmidtlein said. But Microsoft failed to advance its position in search because it did not invest or innovate in it for a long time, Schmidtlein argued, focusing instead on its Windows desktop product.
Google also had no duty to deal with Microsoft, a rival, on its preferred terms with its search ad tool. Schmidtlein said Google had fulfilled four out of five of Microsoft’s feature requests for the tool. The one outstanding feature, real-time bidding for ads, took years for Google to build for its own product, and a version compatible with Microsoft’s tools is now being tested, he said.
Google also contended that advertisers are motivated by return on their investment and are very willing to switch platforms if they think they’ll get a better deal elsewhere.
Browser and device makers actually like having default features for many reasons, Google’s lawyer argued. For browsers, search engines are a reason for consumers to use their interface, and accepting a revenue sharing agreement for a default search provider is a good way for browsers to make money, given they are usually free to consumers.
But it’s important browsers pick the right search default, Schmidtlein said, as Mozilla learned when it switched its default from Google to Yahoo in 2014. By 2017, Mozilla terminated what was supposed to be a five-year deal, with its Chief Business and Legal Officer Denelle Dixon saying in a statement that the company “exercised our contractual right to terminate our agreement with Yahoo! based on a number of factors including doing what’s best for our brand, our effort to provide quality web search, and the broader content experience for our users,” TechCrunch reported at the time.
Similarly, Apple has touted that Google is the default search engine on its browser.
“Apple repeatedly chose Google as the default because Apple believed it was the best experience for its users,” Schmidtlein said.
On the phone manufacturing side, Google argued that its revenue sharing agreements have the effect of “enhancing competition between Apple and Android, causing those two mobile platforms to invest, to develop better devices.”
Sundar Pichai, chief executive officer of Alphabet Inc.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Sundar Pichai said Google‘s longstanding relationship with chipmaker Nvidia isn’t going to change any time soon — in fact, he expects it to continue over the next 10 years.
In an interview Wired published Monday, the Google CEO said the company worked “deeply” with Nvidia on Android and other initiatives for over a decade, adding that Nvidia has a “strong track record” with AI innovation.
“Look, the semiconductor industry is a very dynamic, cooperative industry,” Pichai said. “It’s an industry that needs deep, long-term R&D and investments. I feel comfortable about our relationship with Nvidia and that we are going to be working closely with them 10 years from now.”
In August, the two companies announced a partnership that will give Google’s cloud customers greater access to technology powered by Nvidia’s H100 GPUs. Nvidia’s stock closed at a record high after the announcement.
Nvidia’s business has been booming because its powerful graphics processing units, or GPUs, are being sought after by cloud companies, government agencies and startups to train and deploy generative AI models like the technology underpinning OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Google has been jostling with the likes of OpenAI and Microsoft to be at the forefront of AI innovation, and it has introduced a number of AI solutions, like its chatbot Bard, across its business units. In the interview with Wired, Pichai described AI as “one of the most profound technologies we will ever work on.”
Nvidia is reaping the benefits. As of Monday morning, Nvidia’s stock is up nearly 212% year to date. In its fiscal second-quarter earnings, the company said its quarterly revenue doubled from a year earlier, and it expects sales in the current quarter will grow 170% from the year-ago period.
Kent Walker speaks at a “Grow with Google” launch event in Cleveland.
via Google
Googlepreviewed Friday how it plans to fight off the U.S. government’s charges of illegal monopolization when it goes to trial in D.C. District Court next week.
The trial marks the first major tech antimonopoly case in the U.S. in decades, after the Department of Justice successfully argued Microsoft had violated antitrust law more than 20 years ago.
The DOJ and a coalition of state attorneys general allege in this case that Google used exclusionary contracts with browser-makers like Apple and phone manufacturers that use its Android operating system to cut off rivals from access to the general search market. The states will also argue that Google failed to make its search advertising tool interoperable with Microsoft’s Bing, in order to allegedly keep advertising spending limited to its own services.
Google has maintained that the government’s case is “deeply flawed.” Here are the key elements of its defense, as laid out by Google President of Global Affairs Kent Walker in a blog post on Friday:
Google’s distribution agreements haven’t harmed competition for search, as evidenced by the wide range of services that offer search tools. Walker points to platforms like TikTok, Reddit, Instagram and Amazon — a larger group than direct competitors like Microsoft’s Bing and DuckDuckGo that the government considers part of the relevant market.
It’s browser and device makers that choose to feature default search engines in the first place, and they chose Google “based on the quality of our products,” according to Walker. He pointed to Apple CEO Tim Cook’s comments in 2018 that Google’s search engine is the “best.”
Google isn’t the only company that pays for prominent placement on browsers, Walker wrote. Bing and Yahoo! also pay to be featured in Apple’s Safari.
Google’s payments to device makers and carriers to promote its search product and browser are just marketing, per Walker, similar to a cereal brand paying a supermarket to place its boxes at eye-level on the shelf.
Consumers can easily change search engine defaults on their devices if they prefer another service. Google says it takes as few as two clicks to change the default on Safari’s desktop version and just a few more than that on mobile devices. Walker wrote that consumers showed a willingness to do this in 2014, when many Mozilla users switched their default from Yahoo! to Google.
In order to make its search ad tool as interoperable as states seem to believe it should be, Google would have to prioritize creating features for Microsoft over demands of its own customers, Walker wrote. He added, “American law doesn’t require putting the preferences of your competitors over those of your clients. And Microsoft, which has plenty of resources, has chosen not to build its own search engine management tool.”
The DOJ and the Colorado state AG’s office, which is leading the states’ case, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The logos of Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft displayed on a mobile phone with an EU flag shown in the background.
Justin Tallis | AFP via Getty Images
The European Commission on Wednesday said it designated six tech giants as “gatekeepers” under its new Digital Markets Act — a strict set of rules set to shake up the business models’ of large digital platforms.
The Commission said that it deems Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and China’s ByteDance as “gatekeepers.” The term refers to massive internet platforms which the EU views are restricting access to core platform services, such as online search, advertising, and messaging and communications.
This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.