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Tag: mainland China

  • Stellerus uses satellites to visualise 3D wind data for weather forecasts, insurance risks

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    Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) start-up Stellerus Technology aims to be the world’s first provider of satellite-enabled three-dimensional wind data to help wind power, transport and insurance firms boost revenues, cut costs and manage risks, according to its founders.

    Stellerus, founded in 2023 by the university’s academics, would leverage China’s cost competitiveness in satellite manufacturing to make global 3D wind data collection economically viable, said Su Hui, the chairwoman and co-founder.

    3D wind data – wind direction and speed and their changes with altitude – is crucial for improving weather forecasting, especially severe climate events.

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    “After I came to Hong Kong, I realised the technology for implementing such a project in mainland China was quite developed and the cost would be much lower than overseas,” Su said. “In the US, such a satellite could cost US$100 million to build, compared with 20 million yuan [US$2.8 million] in China.”

    Su Hui, the chairwoman and co-founder of Stellerus Technology. Photo: Edmond So alt=Su Hui, the chairwoman and co-founder of Stellerus Technology. Photo: Edmond So>

    Su, a hydraulic expert, joined the HKUST’s department of civil and environmental engineering in 2022 as chair professor. She was formerly a principal scientist and weather programme manager at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at Nasa.

    By deploying advanced optical sensors, Stellerus could collect data and use artificial intelligence to analyse carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour in the atmosphere to calculate changes in wind direction and speed, she said.

    “Such detailed data is lacking for meteorological observation and analysis globally,” she said. “Various organisations, including Nasa, plan to embark on such a project, but none has been implemented so far due to the high cost of launching a satellite constellation.”

    Nasa was testing laser technology for developing space-based 3D wind measurements, according to its website. It was also collaborating with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to develop advanced remote weather sensing instruments that can be flown aboard satellites to collect highly precise data to improve weather forecasting globally.

    In August 2023, HKUST partnered with Chang Guang Satellite Technology – a Jilin government-backed firm and China’s first commercial remote sensing satellite company – to become Hong Kong’s first higher education institution to launch an Earth environmental satellite.

    Stellerus paid the university a licensing fee to obtain wind prediction data, which was derived from high-resolution digital images, with each pixel depicting half a square metre of area on the ground.

    Stellerus, the winner of the HKUST-Sino Group entrepreneurship competition last month, had been designing new satellites for climate observation, said CEO David Liu.

    The Hong Kong Science and Technology Park-based company, which has raised “tens of millions” of dollars from investors since inception, aimed to launch a pair of satellites via the Tianzhou-10 spacecraft within the next 18 months, followed by another five, Liu added.

    The six satellites would form a constellation, which should be sufficient for global coverage of wind data, Liu said, adding Stellerus aimed to supply the data to developers of applications for the aviation, shipping and insurance industries.

    “The applications include aircraft route optimisation for fuel saving and air turbulence avoidance, shipping route planning for fuel efficiency, as well as climate risk management and product pricing by property and casualty insurers,” he said.

    Stellerus was in advanced talks with wind-farm developers and state-owned power grid operators, which were interested in using its 3D wind data for a fee, Liu added.

    China has the world’s largest fleet of wind farms.

    The data would help wind farm operators enhance power sales and save tens of millions of yuan spent on building wind monitoring towers, said Jeffrey Xu Mingyuan, the chief technology officer at Stellerus.

    “Currently, it is very costly to obtain accurate wind data, especially for offshore operators,” he said. “We aim to tackle the technology bottleneck by providing more affordable and better quality data useful for siting wind farms, energy storage, trading and grid access planning.”

    This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

    Copyright (c) 2025. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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  • iPhone Air orders in China may be delayed due to eSIM issue

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    Apple’s iPhone Air launch may be delayed in China due to regulations around its eSIM-only nature, the South China Morning Post announced. Apple’s mainland China site now states that “release information [will] be updated later,” where previously it said that pre-orders would start at 8PM on September 19. The Beijing branch of China Telecom has also pulled a post from the RedNote social media platform announcing that it would launch its eSIM service this month. All other iPhone models (the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max) will launch as scheduled next Friday.

    Due to its slim 5.6 mm thickness, Apple decided to make the iPhone Air its first model with no physical SIM card option. However, it has always sold iPhones in China with SIM card support that allows customers to easily link their identity to a cellular phone. Because an eSIM is built in, though, customers who want an iPhone Air must appear in person at a retail store to get it approved. Apple notes that “all other iPhone models, including those purchased outside of China mainland, are unable to install an eSIM profile from carriers in China mainland.”

    China Unicom was supposed to support eSIM at launch to start with, according to a cached Apple support document, with China Telecom and China Mobile following later. However, the same document now states that eSIM support for the iPhone Air is still “pending regulatory approval.” A representative from China Telecom said that approval from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology would arrive “very soon,” according to the SCMP.

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    Steve Dent

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  • Shanghai relaxes home-buying rules as China’s property market struggles

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    Shanghai, the commercial and financial hub of mainland China, has further relaxed its home purchase policy, following Beijing’s lead to rejuvenate the nation’s sluggish property market.

    Local residents could now own an unlimited number of flats outside the city’s outer ring road, an area where two-thirds of Shanghai’s housing is located, municipality authorities said on Monday. Previously, families were restricted to a maximum of two housing units in Shanghai.

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    The mortgage rate for buyers of a second home will be reduced to an annualised 3.05 per cent, down from 3.35 per cent, aligning it with the rate for first-home purchasers.

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    The policy adjustment aims to address residents’ pent-up housing needs and improve living conditions, while promoting stable and healthy growth in the local real estate market, according to a statement from the Shanghai government.

    Shanghai’s market-boosting measures come after new home prices across 70 mainland cities decreased 3.4 per cent last month from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Home prices nationwide have been falling since April 2022.

    In the pre-owned home market, prices have been falling for more than two years, with July seeing a 5.9 per cent year-on-year drop, following a 6.1 per cent decline in June.

    Shanghai is the financial hub of mainland China. Photo: Xinhua alt=Shanghai is the financial hub of mainland China. Photo: Xinhua>

    Shanghai’s incentives were “in line with expectations”, said Zhu Xinhai, a sales manager at 5i5j Real Estate Brokerage, which is based in the city. However, the local policies “may not be sufficient to ignite strong buying interest because of prevailing pessimism regarding the economy and wage growth”, he said.

    On August 8, the Beijing municipal government initiated a relaxation of housing policies to stimulate homebuying, a surprise move intended to bolster the struggling property sector. Both local and non-local residents can now freely buy new and second-hand homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, a major highway encircling the suburbs.

    The property sector, along with related industries such as home appliances and construction materials, contributes about a quarter of China’s economic output.

    The real estate market, which had experienced three decades of rapid growth, began to decline in late 2020 when Beijing implemented austerity measures to curb excessive leverage among developers and prevent a financial shock to the economy.

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  • Tesla upgrades EV voice assistant system with AI from DeepSeek and ByteDance

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    Tesla is rolling out an upgraded voice assistant system for its electric vehicles (EVs) in mainland China, adopting artificial intelligence from DeepSeek and ByteDance to better engage with customers in the world’s largest automotive market.

    DeepSeek’s namesake chatbot would be used for “AI interaction”, which enables a Tesla EV’s driver to have casual conversations with the system, while also getting the latest news and weather information, according to the updated terms of use posted this month on the US carmaker’s mainland website.

    ByteDance’s Doubao large language model (LLM) would facilitate voice commands for navigation as well as in-vehicle media and amenities such as air conditioning, according to the updated terms.

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    A user activates the upgraded voice assistant system by saying “Hey, Tesla” or another designated phrase, providing a more intuitive approach than clicking a button on either the EV’s steering wheel or multimedia terminal.

    Volcano Engine, the cloud computing services unit of ByteDance, is responsible for the AI systems integration using an encrypted application programming interface, a protocol that enables different software applications to communicate.

    Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Friday.

    Visitors check out a Tesla electric vehicle on display at the third China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing on July 16, 2025. Photo: EPA alt=Visitors check out a Tesla electric vehicle on display at the third China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing on July 16, 2025. Photo: EPA>

    Tesla’s latest initiative reflects the carmaker’s efforts to boost orders on the mainland’s highly competitive EV market, as the AI systems from DeepSeek and ByteDance would appeal to domestic buyers.

    Details on when Tesla’s upgraded voice assistant system would be available and on which models remain unknown. Tesla’s recently launched six-seat Model Y L SUV, which supports a voice wake-up feature, will start deliveries next month.

    Tesla’s updated terms, meanwhile, cautioned users that AI-generated content “may be incomplete, incorrect or contextually unsuitable”, adding that the technology should not be used to “endanger national security” or “disclose state secrets” as stipulated by China’s laws.

    Still, Tesla was nearly half a year late in adopting Chinese AI solutions. As of mid-February, more than a dozen domestic carmakers – including BYD, Geely and Stellantis-backed start-up Leapmotor – had already announced plans to release cars with DeepSeek-enabled AI features.

    Total EV deliveries – comprising passenger cars and commercial vehicles like buses – slid 5 per cent from a month earlier to 1.26 million units in July, according to data from the government-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. It was the first month-on-month drop in the Chinese EV market since May.

    ByteDance has become a popular AI supplier for carmakers on the mainland. Last year, the TikTok and Douyin owner teamed up with Mercedes-Benz to integrate its LLM into the German carmaker’s in-car systems in China.

    The Beijing-based unicorn ByteDance had also formed an “automobile LLM ecosystem alliance” with more than 20 firms that included Geely and Great Wall Motor.

    This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

    Copyright (c) 2025. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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  • Explainer-What happens next after China Evergrande ordered to liquidate?

    Explainer-What happens next after China Evergrande ordered to liquidate?

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    By Clare Jim and Scott Murdoch

    HONG KONG (Reuters) – A Hong Kong court on Monday ordered China Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer, to be liquidated.

    The move could send shockwaves through already fragile Chinese capital and property markets. Such a process could be complicated, with potential political considerations, given the many authorities involved.

    WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE COURT ORDERS EVERGRANDE LIQUIDATED?

    Once a liquidation order is issued, a provisional liquidatorand then an official liquidator will be appointed to takecontrol and prepare to sell the developer’s assets to repay itsdebts.

    The liquidators could propose a new debt restructuring planto offshore creditors holding $23 billion of debt in Evergrandeif they determine the company had enough assets or if a whiteknight investor appeared. They would also investigate thecompany’s affairs and could refer any suspected misconduct bydirectors to Hong Kong prosecutors.

    Evergrande could appeal a liquidation order, but theliquidation process would proceed pending appeal.

    Shares in Evergrande and its listed subsidiaries were suspended from trading after the liquidation order. Listing rules require a company to demonstrate a business structure with sufficient operations and asset values.

    HOW MUCH DEBT MIGHT CREDITORS RECOVER AND WHAT ARE THE MAINCHALLENGES?

    Evergrande cited a Deloitte analysis during a Hong Kongcourt hearing in July that estimated a recovery rate of 3.4% ifthe developer were liquidated.

    However, after Evergrande said in September its flagshipunit and its chairman Hui Ka Yan were being investigated by theauthorities for unspecified crimes, creditors nowexpect a recovery rate of less than 3%.

    Evergrande’s dollar bonds were bid at around one cent on thedollar on Friday.

    Most of Evergrande’s assets have been sold or seized bycreditors, leaving its two units listed in Hong Kong -Evergrande Property Services Group and Evergrande NewEnergy Vehicle Group. Their combined marketcapitalisation had dropped to $973 million as of Friday.

    A liquidator could sell Evergrande’s holdings in the twounits although it might be difficult to find buyers.

    After a liquidation, the liquidator could take control ofEvergrande’s subsidiaries across mainland China by replacingtheir legal representatives one by one, a process that couldtake months or years.

    Insolvency experts said it would be a challenge for theliquidator to change the representatives as Guangzhou, whereEvergrande is based, is not one of the three Chinese cities thatmutually recognise liquidation orders with Hong Kong.

    Even if a liquidator were to take possession of the unitsthat have onshore projects, many of these have already beentaken over by creditors, frozen by courts, have little valueleft or are even in negative equity because of falling propertyprices.

    HOW SIGNIFICANT WOULD LIQUIDATION BE FOR CHINA’S PROPERTYMARKET?

    While a winding-up of the developer with $240 billion ofassets would send shockwaves through already fragile capitalmarkets, experts said it would not offer a blueprint on howliquidation might unfold for other embattled developers.

    Given the sheer size of Evergrande’s projects and debt, theprocess would involve many authorities and politicalconsiderations.

    Completing ongoing home construction projects will be a toppriority for the company, the sector and the government.

    (Reporting by Clare Jim in Hong Kong and Scott Murdoch in Sydney; additional reporting by Kane Wu; Editing by Lincoln Feast)

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  • Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Agnes Chow jumps bail and moves to Canada

    Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Agnes Chow jumps bail and moves to Canada

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    HONG KONG (AP) — One of Hong Kong’s best-known pro-democracy activists, who moved to Canada to pursue further studies, said she would not return to the city to meet her bail conditions, becoming the latest politician to flee Hong Kong under Beijing’s crackdown on dissidents.

    Agnes Chow, a famous young face in the city’s once-vibrant pro-democracy movement, was arrested in 2020 under a Beijing-imposed national security law that was enacted following 2019 anti-government protests. She was released on bail but also served more than six months in jail for a separate case over her role in the protests.

    After Chow was released from prison in 2021 for that case, she had to regularly report to the police. She said in an Instagram post on Sunday night that the pressure caused her “mental illnesses” and influenced her decision not to return to the city.

    Many of her peers have been jailed, arrested, forced into self-exile or silenced after the introduction of the security law in 2020.

    The suppression of the city’s pro-democracy movement highlights that freedoms promised to the former British colony when it returned to China in 1997 have been eroded drastically. But Beijing and Hong Kong have hailed the security law for bringing back stability to the semi-autonomous Chinese city.

    Chow said the authorities in July offered to return her passport for her to pursue studies in Canada under the condition that she would travel to mainland China with them. She agreed, she said, and her trip in August included a visit to an exhibition on China’s achievements and the headquarters of tech giant Tencent. The authorities later returned her passport to her.

    After considering the situation in Hong Kong, her safety and her health, Chow said she “probably won’t return” to the city again.

    “I don’t want to be forced to do things that I don’t want to do anymore and be forced to visit mainland China again. If it continues, my body and my mind will collapse even though I am safe,” she wrote.

    Chow said in an interview broadcast on TV Tokyo on Monday that she was still weighing her next steps, including the option of seeking asylum in Canada. Asked whether she would take up political activism there, she said she wanted to do something in Hong Kong’s interest.

    Hong Kong police on Monday “strongly condemned” Chow’s move, without naming her, saying it was “against and challenging the rule of law.”

    “Police urge the woman to immediately turn back before it is too late and not to choose a path of no return. Otherwise, she will bear the stigma of ‘fugitive’ for the rest of her life,” the police said in a statement.

    The police did not respond to questions from The Associated Press on Chow’s mainland China trip.

    Chow rose to fame with other prominent young activists Joshua Wong and Nathan Law as a student leader for their activism in the 2010s, including pro-democracy protests in 2014.

    She co-founded the now-defunct pro-democracy party Demosisto with Wong and Law, but the party was disbanded on June 30, 2020, the same day the security law was enacted.

    Wong is now in custody and faces a subversion charge that could result in life imprisonment if convicted. Law fled to Britain and the police in July offered a reward of 1 million Hong Kong dollars ($127,600) for information leading to his arrest.

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  • Will Nasal COVID Vaccines Save Us?

    Will Nasal COVID Vaccines Save Us?

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    Since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, a niche subset of experimental vaccines has offered the world a tantalizing promise: a sustained slowdown in the spread of disease. Formulated to spritz protection into the body via the nose or the mouth—the same portals of entry most accessible to the virus itself—mucosal vaccines could head SARS-CoV-2 off at the pass, stamping out infection to a degree that their injectable counterparts might never hope to achieve.

    Now, nearly three years into the pandemic, mucosal vaccines are popping up all over the map. In September, India authorized one delivered as drops into the nostrils; around the same time, mainland China green-lit an inhalable immunization, and later on, a nasal-spray vaccine, now both being rolled out amid a massive case wave. Two more mucosal recipes have been quietly bopping around in Russia and Iran for many months. Some of the world’s largest and most populous countries now have access to the technology—and yet it isn’t clear how well that’s working out. “Nothing has been published; no data has been made available,” says Mike Diamond, an immunologist at Washington University in St. Louis, whose own approach to mucosal vaccines has been licensed for use in India via a company called Bharat. If mucosal vaccines are delivering on their promise, we don’t know it yet; we don’t know if they will ever deliver.

    The allure of a mucosal vaccine is all about geography. Injectable shots are great at coaxing out immune defenses in the blood, where they’re able to cut down on the risk of severe disease and death. But they aren’t as good at marshaling a protective response in the upper airway, leaving an opening for the virus to still infect and transmit. When viral invaders throng the nose, blood-borne defenses have to scamper to the site of infection at a bit of a delay—it’s like stationing guards next to a bank’s central vault, only to have them rush to the entrance every time a robber trips an external alarm. Mucosal vaccines, meanwhile, would presumably be working at the door.

    That same logic drives the effectiveness of the powerful oral polio vaccine, which bolsters defenses in its target virus’s preferred environment—the gut. Just one mucosal vaccine exists to combat a pathogen that enters through the nose: a nasal spray made up of weakened flu viruses, a version of which is branded as FluMist. The up-the-nose spritz is reasonably protective in kids, in some cases even outperforming its injected counterparts (though not always). But FluMist is much less potent for adults: The immunity they accumulate from a lifetime of influenza infections can wipe out the vaccine before it has time to lay down new protection. When it comes to cooking up a mucosal vaccine for a respiratory virus, “we don’t have a great template to follow,” says Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunologist at the University of Arizona.

    To circumvent the FluMist problem, some researchers have instead concocted viral-vector-based vaccines—the same group of immunizations to which the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca COVID shots belong. China’s two mucosal vaccines fall into this category; so does India’s nose-drop concoction, as well as a nasal version of Russia’s Sputnik V shot. Other researchers are cooking up vaccines that contain ready-made molecules of the coronavirus’s spike protein, more akin to the shot from Novavax. Among them are Iran’s mucosal COVID vaccine and a newer, still-in-development candidate from the immunologist Akiko Iwasaki and her colleagues at Yale. The Yale group is also testing an mRNA-based nasal recipe. And the company Vaxart has been tinkering with a COVID-vaccine pill that could be swallowed to provoke immune cells in the gut, which would then deploy fighters throughout the body’s mucosal surfaces, up through the nose.

    Early data in animals have spurred some optimism. Trial versions of Diamond’s vaccine guarded mice, hamsters, and monkeys from the virus, in some cases seeming to stave off infection entirely; a miniaturized version of Vaxart’s oral vaccine was able to keep infected hamsters from spreading the coronavirus through the air. Iwasaki is pursuing an approach that deploys mucosal vaccines exclusively as boosters to injected shots, in the hopes that the initial jab can lay down bodywide immunity, a subset of which can then be tugged into a specialized compartment in the nose. Her nasal-protein recipe seems to trim transmission rates among rodents that have first received an in-the-muscle shot.

    But attempts to re-create these results in people yielded mixed results. After an intranasal version of the AstraZeneca vaccine roused great defenses in animals, a team at Oxford moved the immunization into a small human trial—and last month, published results showing that it hardly triggered any immune response, even as a booster to an in-the-arm shot. Adam Ritchie, one of the Oxford immunologists behind the study, told me the results don’t necessarily spell disaster for other mucosal attempts, and that with more finagling, AstraZeneca’s vaccine might someday do better up the nose. Still, the results “definitely put a damper on the excitement around intranasal vaccines,” says Stephanie Langel, an immunologist at Case Western Reserve University, who’s partnering with Vaxart to develop a COVID-vaccine pill.

    The mucosal COVID vaccines in India and China, at least, have reportedly shown a bit more promise in small, early human trials. Bharat’s info sheet on its nasal-drop vaccine—the Indian riff on Diamond’s recipe—says it bested another locally made vaccine, Covaxin, at tickling out antibodies, while provoking fewer side effects. China’s inhaled vaccine, too, seems to do reasonably well on the human-antibody front. But antibodies aren’t the same as true effectiveness: Vaccine makers and local health ministries, experts told me, have yet to release large-scale, real-world data showing that the vaccines substantially cut down on transmission or infection. And although some studies have hinted that nasal protection can stick around in animals for many, many months, there’s no guarantee the same will be true in humans, in whom mucosal antibodies, in particular, “are kind of known to wane pretty quickly,” Langel told me.

    SARS-CoV-2 infections have offered sobering lessons of their own. The nasal immune response to the virus itself is neither impenetrable nor particularly long-lived, says David Martinez, a viral immunologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Even people who have been both vaccinated and infected can still get infected again, he told me, and it would be difficult for a nasal vaccine to do much better. “I don’t think mucosal vaccines are going to be the deus ex machina that some people think they’re going to be.”

    Mucosal vaccines don’t need to provide a perfect blockade against infection to prove valuable. Packaged into sprays, drops, or pills, immunizations tailor-made for the mouth or the nose might make COVID vaccines easier to ship, store, and distribute en masse. “They often don’t require specialized training,” says Gregory Poland, a vaccinologist at the Mayo Clinic—a major advantage for rural or low-resource areas. The immunizing experience could also be easier for kids or anyone else who’d rather not endure a needle. Should something like Vaxart’s encapsulated vaccine work out, Langel told me, COVID vaccines could even one day be shipped via mail, in a form safe and easy enough to swallow with a glass of water at home. Some formulations may also come with far fewer side effects than, say, the mRNA-based shots, which “really kick my ass,” Bhattacharya told me. Even if mucosal vaccines weren’t a transmission-blocking knockout, “if it meant I didn’t have to get the mRNA vaccine, I would consider it.”

    But the longer that countries such as the U.S. have gone without mucosal COVID vaccines, the harder it’s gotten to get one across the finish line. Transmission, in particular, is tough to study, and Langel pointed out that any new immunizations will likely have to prove that they can outperform our current crop of injected shots to secure funding, possibly even FDA approval. “It’s an uphill battle,” she told me.

    Top White House advisers remain resolute that transmission-reducing tech has to be part of the next generation of COVID vaccines. Ideally, those advancements would be paired with ingredients that enhance the life span of immune responses and combat a wider swath of variants; skimp on any of them, and the U.S. might remain in repeat-vaccination purgatory for a while yet. “We need to do better on all three fronts,” Anthony Fauci, the outgoing director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told me. But packaging all that together will require another major financial investment. “We need Warp Speed 2.0,” says Shankar Musunuri, the CEO of Ocugen, the American company that has licensed Diamond’s recipe. “And so far, there is no action.” When I asked Fauci about this, he didn’t seem optimistic that this would change. “I think that they’ve reached the point where they feel, ‘We’ve given enough money to it,’” he told me. In the absence of dedicated government funds, some scientists, Iwasaki among them, have decided to spin off companies of their own. But without more public urgency and cash flow, “it could be years to decades to market,” Iwasaki told me. “And that’s if everything goes well.”

    Then there’s the issue of uptake. Musunuri told me that he’s confident that the introduction of mucosal COVID vaccines in the U.S.—however long it takes to happen—will “attract all populations, including kids … people like new things.” But Rupali Limaye, a behavioral scientist at Johns Hopkins University, worries that for some, novelty will drive the exact opposite effect. The “newness” of COVID vaccines, she told me, is exactly what has prompted many to adopt an attitude of “wait and see” or even “that’s not for me.” An even newer one that jets ingredients up into the head might be met with additional reproach.

    Vaccine fatigue has also set in for much of the public. In the United States, hospitalizations are once again rising, and yet less than 15 percent of people eligible for bivalent shots have gotten them. That sort of uptake is at odds with the dream of a mucosal vaccine that can drive down transmission. “It would have to be a lot of people getting vaccinated in order to have that public-health population impact,” says Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong. And there’s no guarantee that even a widely administered mucosal vaccine would be the population’s final dose. The pace at which we’re doling out shots is driven in part by “the virus changing so quickly,” says Ali Ellebedy, an immunologist at Washington University in St. Louis. Even a sustained encampment of antibodies in the nose could end up being a poor match for the next variant that comes along, necessitating yet another update.

    The experts I spoke with worried that some members of the scientific community—even some members of the public—have begun to pin all their hopes about stopping the spread of SARS-CoV-2 on mucosal vaccines. It’s a recipe for disappointment. “People love the idea of a magic pill,” Langel told me. “But it’s just not reality.” The virus is here to stay; the goal continues to be to make that reality more survivable. “We’re trying to reduce infection and transmission, not eliminate it; that would be almost impossible,” Iwasaki told me. That’s true for any vaccine, no matter how, or where, the body first encounters it.

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    Katherine J. Wu

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  • China’s COVID Wave Is Coming

    China’s COVID Wave Is Coming

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    In China, a dam seems on the verge of breaking. Following a wave of protests, the government has begun to relax some of its most stringent zero-COVID protocols, and regional authorities have trimmed back a slew of requirements for mass testing, quarantine, and isolation. The rollbacks are coming as a relief for the many Chinese residents who have been clamoring for change. But they’re also swiftly tilting the nation toward a future that’s felt inevitable for nearly three years: a flood of infections—accompanied, perhaps, by an uncharted morass of disease and death. A rise in new cases has already begun to manifest in urban centers such as Chongqing, Beijing, and Guangzhou. Now experts are waiting to see just how serious China’s outbreak will be, and whether the country can cleanly extricate itself from the epidemic ahead.

    For now, the forecast “is full of ifs and buts and maybes,” says Salim Abdool Karim, an epidemiologist at the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa. Perhaps the worst can be averted if the government does more to vaccinate the vulnerable and prep hospitals for a protracted influx of COVID patients; and if the community at large reinvests in a subset of mitigation measures as cases rise. “There is still the possibility that they may muddle through it without a mass die-off,” says Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. “But even the most smooth and orderly transition,” he told me, “will not prevent a surge of cases.”

    China represents, in many ways, SARS-CoV-2’s final frontier. With its under-vaccinated residents and sparse infection history, the nation harbors “a more susceptible population than really any other large population I can think of,” says Sarah Cobey, an computational epidemiologist at the University of Chicago. Soon, SARS-CoV-2 will infiltrate that group of hosts so thoroughly that it will be nearly impossible to purge again. “Eventually, just like everyone else on Earth, everyone in China should expect to be infected,” says Michael Worobey, an evolutionary virologist at the University of Arizona.

    Whatever happens, though, China’s coming wave won’t recapitulate the one that swept most of the world in early 2020. Though it’s hard to say which versions of the virus are circulating in the country, a smattering of reports confirm the likeliest scenario: BF.7 and other Omicron subvariants predominate. Several of these versions of the virus seem to be a bit less likely than their predecessors to trigger severe disease. That, combined with the relatively high proportion of residents—roughly 95 percent—who have received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine, might keep many people from falling dangerously ill. The latest figures out of China’s CDC marked some 90 percent of the country’s cases as asymptomatic. “That’s an enormous fraction” compared with what’s been documented elsewhere, says Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong.

    That percentage, however, is undoubtedly increased by the country’s ultra-rigorous testing practices, which have been catching silent cases that other places might miss. All of Omicron’s iterations also remain capable of triggering severe disease and long COVID. And there are still plenty of worrying omens that climbing cases could reach a horrific peak, sit on a prolonged plateau, or both.

    One of China’s biggest weak spots is its immunity, or lack thereof. Although more than 90 percent of all people in the country have received at least two COVID shots, those over the age of 80 were not prioritized in the country’s initial rollout, and their rate of dual-dose coverage hovers around just 66 percent. An even paltrier fraction of older people have received a third dose, which the World Health Organization recommends for better protection. Chinese officials have vowed to buoy those numbers in the weeks ahead. But vaccination sites have been tougher to access than testing sites, and with few freedoms offered to the immunized, “the incentive structure is not built,” says Xi Chen, a global-health expert at Yale. Some residents are also distrustful of COVID vaccines. Even some health-care workers are wary of delivering the shots, Chen told me, because they’re fearful of liability for side effects.

    Regardless of the progress China makes in plugging the holes in its immunity shield, COVID vaccines won’t prevent all infections. China’s shots, most of which are based on chemically inactivated particles of the 2020 version of SARS-CoV-2, seem to be less effective and less durable than mRNA recipes, especially against Omicron variants. And many of China’s residents received their third doses many months ago. That means even people who are currently counted as “boosted” aren’t as protected as they could be.

    All of this and more could position China to be worse off than other places—among them, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore—that have navigated out of a zero-COVID state, says Caitlin Rivers, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Australia, for instance, didn’t soften its mitigations until it had achieved high levels of vaccine coverage among older adults, Rivers told me. China has also clung to its zero-COVID philosophy far longer than any other nation, leaving itself to contend with variants that are better at spreading than those that came before. Other countries charted their own path out of their restrictions; China is being forced into an unplanned exit.

    What Hong Kong endured earlier this year may hint at what’s ahead. “They had a really, really bad wave,” Kayoko Shioda, an epidemiologist at Emory University, told me—far dwarfing the four that the city had battled previously. Researchers have estimated that nearly half the city’s population—more than 3 million people—ended up catching the virus. More than 9,000 residents died. And Hong Kong was, in some respects, in a better place to ease its restrictions than the mainland is. This past winter and spring, the city’s main adversary was BA.2, a less vaccine-evasive Omicron subvariant than the ones circulating now; officials had Pfizer’s mRNA-based shot on hand, and quickly began offering fourth doses. Hong Kong also has more ICU beds per capita. Map a new Omicron outbreak onto mainland China, and the prognosis is poor: A recent modeling paper estimated that the country could experience up to 1.55 million deaths in the span of just a few months. (Other analyses offer less pessimistic estimates.)

    Lackluster vaccination isn’t China’s only issue. The country has accumulated almost no infection-induced immunity that might otherwise have updated people’s bodies on recent coronavirus strains. The country’s health-care system is also ill-equipped to handle a surge in demand: For every 100,000 Chinese residents, just 3.6 ICU beds exist, concentrated in wealthier cities; in an out-of-control-infection scenario, even a variant with a relatively low severe-disease risk would prove disastrous, Chen told me. Nor does the system have the slack to accommodate a rush of patients. China’s culture of care seeking is such that “even when you have minor illness, you seek help in urban health centers,” Huang told me, and not enough efforts have been made to bolster triage protocols. More health-care workers may become infected; patients may be more likely to slip through the cracks. Next month’s Lunar New Year celebration, too, could spark further spread. And as the weather cools and restrictions relax, other respiratory viruses, such as RSV and flu, could drive epidemics of their own.

    That said, spikes of illness are unlikely to peak across China at the same time, which could offer some relief. The country’s coming surge “could be explosive,” Cobey told me, “or it could be more of a slow burn.” Already, the country is displaying a patchwork of waxing and waning regulations across jurisdictions, as some cities tighten their restrictions to combat the virus while others loosen up. Experts told me that more measures may return as cases ratchet up—and unlike people in many other countries, the Chinese may be more eager to readopt them to quash a ballooning outbreak.

    A major COVID outbreak in China would also have unpredictable effects on the virus. The world’s most populous country includes a large number of immunocompromised people, who can harbor the virus for months—chronic infections that are thought to have produced variants of concern before. The world may be about to witness “a billion or more opportunities for the virus to evolve,” Cowling told me. In the coming months, the coronavirus could also exploit the Chinese’s close interactions with farmed animals, such as raccoon dogs and mink (both of which can be infected by SARS-CoV-2), and become enmeshed in local fauna. “We’ve certainly seen animal reservoirs becoming established in other parts of the world,” Worobey told me. “We should expect the same thing there.”

    Then again, the risk of new variants spinning out of a Chinese outbreak may be a bit less than it seems, Abdool Karim and other experts told me. China has stuck with zero COVID so long that its population has, by and large, never encountered Omicron subvariants; people’s immune systems remain trained almost exclusively on the original version of the coronavirus, raising only defenses that currently circulating strains can easily get around. It’s possible that “there will be less pressure for the virus to evolve to evade immunity further,” says Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Bern; and any new versions of the virus that do emerge might not fare particularly well outside of China. In other words, the virus could end up trapped in the very country that tried to keep it out the longest. Still, with so many people susceptible, Cobey told me, there are zero guarantees.

    Either way, viral evolution will plod on—and as it does, the rest of the world may struggle to track it in real time, especially as the cadence of Chinese testing ebbs. Cowling worries that China will have trouble monitoring the number of cases in the country, much less which subvariants are causing them. “There’s going to be a challenge in having situational awareness,” he told me. Shioda, too, worries that China will remain tight-lipped about the scale of the outbreak, a pattern that could have serious implications for residents as well.

    Even without a spike in severe disease, a wide-ranging outbreak is likely to put immense strain on China—which may weigh heavily on its economy and residents for years to come. After the SARS outbreak that began in 2002, rates of burnout and post-traumatic stress among health-care workers in affected countries swelled. Chinese citizens have not experienced an epidemic of this scale in recent memory, Chen told me. “A lot of people think it is over, that they can go back to their normal lives.” But once SARS-CoV-2 embeds itself in the country, it won’t be apt to leave. There will not be any going back to normal, not after this.

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    Katherine J. Wu

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