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Tag: Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Teoscar Hernández’s two homers powers Dodgers to 11-3 win over Yankees

    Teoscar Hernández’s two homers powers Dodgers to 11-3 win over Yankees

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    Teoscar Hernández homered twice and drove in six runs, including a grand slam that helped power the Los Angeles Dodgers past the New York Yankees 11-3 on Saturday night for their second consecutive victory in this marquee matchup.

    Kiké Hernández also went deep and Shohei Ohtani had an RBI single to back rookie Gavin Stone (7-2), who has won three straight starts and five of his last six.

    After handing New York (45-21) just its third series loss this season, the Dodgers (41-25) will try to cap their first visit to the Bronx since 2016 with a three-game sweep Sunday night.

    Aaron Judge hit two homers for the Yankees, giving him a major league-high 23, but they’ve managed only three runs in 23 innings at the plate since slugger Juan Soto exited Thursday night’s win over Minnesota with a forearm injury.

    The frustration showed when Giancarlo Stanton slammed his bat after popping up to end the seventh.

    In a highly anticipated meeting between first-place teams billed as a potential World Series preview, Teoscar Hernández has stolen the spotlight from the five MVPs on both sides of the field. His two-run double in the 11th inning Friday night broke a scoreless tie in Los Angeles’ 2-1 victory, and his solo homer in the second off Nestor Cortes (3-5) got the Dodgers going Saturday.

    Two walks by reliever Tommy Kahnle and the 10th error this year by second baseman Gleyber Torres loaded the bases in the eighth, and Hernández connected on a 2-2 changeup for his fifth career slam and 18th two-homer game — his second this season.

    It was his second drive of the night into the Dodgers’ bullpen in left-center and this one had teammates jumping around as the fired-up outfielder rounded the bases on his 15th home run of the season, opening an 8-2 cushion.

    The six RBIs equaled a career high for Hernández, accomplished three times. Freddie Freeman added a two-run double in the ninth.

    Dodgers reliever Alex Vesia replaced Stone with the bases loaded and two outs in the sixth and retired Anthony Volpe to protect a 4-2 lead, much to the delight of the many Dodgers fans in the sellout crowd of 48,374 — the largest this season at Yankee Stadium.

    TRAINER’S ROOM

    Dodgers: Manager Dave Roberts said the team didn’t know yet if RHP Bobby Miller (right shoulder inflammation) would make one more minor league rehab start or take his next turn in the big league rotation. Miller permitted two runs — one earned — and four hits over four innings Friday for Triple-A Oklahoma City, throwing 50 of 85 pitches for strikes. “I liked everything about it. Command was better,” Roberts said. … LHP Clayton Kershaw (shoulder surgery) felt “normal soreness” after throwing two innings Friday in a simulated game at Class A Rancho Cucamonga, according to Roberts. He said the three-time Cy Young Award winner will next throw a three-inning simulated game and then the plan is for him to begin a minor league rehab assignment.

    Yankees: Soto (left forearm inflammation) missed his second consecutive game. … RHP Gerrit Cole (right elbow nerve inflammation) is scheduled to throw about 55-60 pitches Sunday in his second rehab start for Double-A Somerset.

    UP NEXT

    Dodgers RHP Tyler Glasnow (6-4, 2.93 ERA) starts the series finale Sunday night against rookie RHP Luis Gil (8-1, 1.82). Glasnow began the day leading the majors with 104 strikeouts, while Gil had the lowest ERA in the American League.

    Gil is 7-0 with a 0.60 ERA in his last seven outings and is the first pitcher in Yankees history to throw at least six innings and allow no more than one run in seven straight starts.

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    Mike Fitzpatrick

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  • Ex-interpreter for MLB star Shohei Ohtani pleads guilty in sports betting case

    Ex-interpreter for MLB star Shohei Ohtani pleads guilty in sports betting case

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    Ippei Mizuhara, ex-interpreter for baseball star Shohei Ohtani, pleads guilty in sports betting case

    The former interpreter for Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani pleaded guilty to bank and tax fraud Wednesday in a sports betting case where prosecutors allege he stole $16 million from the Japanese baseball player to pay off debts.The scandal surrounding Ippei Mizuhara shocked baseball fans from the U.S. to Japan when the news broke in March. He was initially charged with one count of bank fraud, which carries a potential 30-year prison sentence.Mizuhara exploited his personal and professional relationship with Ohtani to plunder millions from the two-way player’s account for years, at times impersonating Ohtani to bankers, prosecutors said. Mizuhara’s winning bets totaled over $142 million, which he deposited in his own bank account and not Ohtani’s. But his losing bets were around $183 million, a net loss of nearly $41 million. He did not wager on baseball.There was no evidence that Ohtani was involved in or aware of Mizuhara’s gambling, and the player is cooperating with investigators, authorities said.

    The former interpreter for Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani pleaded guilty to bank and tax fraud Wednesday in a sports betting case where prosecutors allege he stole $16 million from the Japanese baseball player to pay off debts.

    The scandal surrounding Ippei Mizuhara shocked baseball fans from the U.S. to Japan when the news broke in March. He was initially charged with one count of bank fraud, which carries a potential 30-year prison sentence.

    Mizuhara exploited his personal and professional relationship with Ohtani to plunder millions from the two-way player’s account for years, at times impersonating Ohtani to bankers, prosecutors said. Mizuhara’s winning bets totaled over $142 million, which he deposited in his own bank account and not Ohtani’s. But his losing bets were around $183 million, a net loss of nearly $41 million. He did not wager on baseball.

    There was no evidence that Ohtani was involved in or aware of Mizuhara’s gambling, and the player is cooperating with investigators, authorities said.

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  • New details emerge in alleged gambling ring behind Shohei Ohtani-Ippei Mizuhara scandal

    New details emerge in alleged gambling ring behind Shohei Ohtani-Ippei Mizuhara scandal

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    Shohei Ohtani is still just playing baseball after being all but cleared in the Ippei Mizuhara scandal. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)

    If you were curious about what exactly happened to Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani’s money after it was allegedly stolen by his former interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, a new report from ESPN’s Tisha Thompson has shed new light on the situation.

    The man at the center of the alleged illegal gambling ring that received Ohtani’s money was Mathew Bowyer, who has been under investigation by federal authorities since last year. Ohtani was only roped into the scandal when authorities noticed his bank information among the payments to Bowyer.

    Mizuhara reportedly funneled weekly $500,000 payments from Ohtani’s bank account to an associate of Bowyer’s to cover his illegal gambling losses. ESPN reports that associate would then deposit the money into accounts with Resorts World, a Las Vegas casino opened in 2021, and Pechanga Resort Casino in Temecula, California.

    Bowyer and the associate would then allegedly convert the money to playing chips, gamble with it and cash out if they won. Bowyer reportedly lost $7.9 million at Resorts World from June 2022 to October 2023, a span of time in which he was receiving money from Mizuhara.

    This is all apparently part of a much larger trend in the gambling world in which illegal bookies in Southern California use Las Vegas casinos to launder money. Twelve people have reportedly been charged and convicted, while two Vegas casinos have agreed to pay fines.

    There’s even a tangential connection to LeBron James. The Los Angeles Lakers star’s friend and business partner, Maverick Carter, reportedly admitted late last year that he bet on NBA games via an illegal bookie. ESPN reports that bookie, Wayne Nix, has since pleaded guilty to operating an illegal gambling business and filing a false tax return. NBA Hall of Famer Scottie Pippen and former MLB star Yasiel Puig also reportedly made bets through Nix.

    In the case of Bowyer, he reportedly boasted more than 600 bettors and was known as a whale in Vegas, with a reputation for bringing between $250,000 and $1 million with him as often as two or three times per month.

    As far as Ohtani, the Dodgers and MLB, the Ippei Mizuhara situation is in the rear-view mirror.

    Mizuhara turned himself in on a federal charge of bank fraud earlier this month and is currently out on $25,000 bond. His attorney released a statement soon after indicating Mizuhara’s desire to cut a deal with prosecutors rather than go to trial, in which he would face up to 30 years in prison:

    Today Mr. Mizuhara voluntarily surrendered, made his initial appearance, and was released on bond as agreed to with the government. He is continuing to cooperate with the legal process and is hopeful that he can reach an agreement with the government to resolve this case as quickly as possible so that he can take responsibility.

    He wishes to apologize to Mr. Ohtani, the Dodgers, Major League Baseball, and his family. As noted in court, he is also eager to seek treatment for his gambling. We have no further comment at this time, but Mr. Mizuhara will be providing further comment as the legal process proceeds.

    To date, no reports of a deal have materialized, but that doesn’t mean negotiations aren’t happening.

    Meanwhile, MLB has released a statement recognizing that authorities see Ohtani as a victim, leaving them little to investigate.

    This is about as good of an outcome as Ohtani and his people could have hoped for after his name popped up on an illegal bookie’s ledger, but it remains a very sad situation. It has become clear that Mizuhara was both very close to Ohtani and suffered from enormous issues with gambling addiction.

    Now, Ohtani is just focusing on baseball again, while Mizuhara is sorting out an unenviable legal situation.

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  • A woman who accused Trevor Bauer of sex assault is now charged with defrauding ex-MLB player

    A woman who accused Trevor Bauer of sex assault is now charged with defrauding ex-MLB player

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    PHOENIX (AP) — An Arizona woman who accused former major league pitcher Trevor Bauer of sexual assault has been charged with defrauding the baseball player.

    An indictment unsealed Monday in Maricopa County Superior Court charges the woman with fraud and theft by extortion, both felonies, but doesn’t provide specific details about the alleged crimes. It says Bauer and one other person were defrauded in a scheme that potentially spanned several years.

    The Associated Press does not typically identify people who say they have been victims of sexual assault unless they come forward publicly.

    The woman sued Bauer in December 2022, accusing him of rape two years earlier that she said resulted in pregnancy in late 2020.

    Court records on Tuesday afternoon didn’t list an attorney for the woman in the fraud case, and the lawyer representing her in her lawsuit didn’t immediately respond to a phone message seeking additional comment.

    Bauer was never arrested or charged. He countersued, saying he had one consensual sexual encounter with the woman in 2020 and then accused her of faking the pregnancy to extort money from him.

    His attorneys have said that the woman made several million-dollar demands against him.

    Bauer said he ultimately paid $8,761 for expenses he believed to be related to the woman’s reported pregnancy and its subsequent termination.

    The woman later said that she ultimately decided not to terminate the pregnancy, but had a miscarriage.

    She is scheduled to be arraigned on the criminal charges next Friday.

    In a recorded video statement released Tuesday, Bauer said he is innocent.

    “What else do I have to do to prove that this entire situation has been a massive lie? This is insane,” he said. “At what point do I get to go back to work and continue earning a living?”

    Bauer has been trying to revive his major league career after serving a suspension for violating the league’s domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. He was suspended after another woman accused him of beating and sexually abusing her — an accusation the pitcher also denied.

    He was released by the Los Angeles Dodgers in January 2023 and played last year with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Pacific League. He signed a deal this spring to pitch five games for Mexico’s Diablos Rojos and made his first appearance in a spring exhibition against the New York Yankees.

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    AP MLB: https://apnews.com/hub/mlb and https://twitter.com/AP_Sports

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  • Who is Nick Nastrini? A look at the Sox rookie SP

    Who is Nick Nastrini? A look at the Sox rookie SP

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    CHICAGO — When Chicago White Sox fans show up to the ballpark this evening to watch them take on the Kansas City Royals, they’ll see one of their better pitching prospects making his Major League Baseball debut. So, the question remains, who is Nick Nastrini?

    A product of John Savage’s baseball program on the West Coast at UCLA, Nastrini comes with plenty of talent to warrant palpable hype around his MLB debut since being acquired in a 2023 deadline trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly.

    Whether it’s MLB.com, Baseball America, The Athletic, Baseball Prospectus or ESPN, all five publications rate Nastrini as one of the White Sox’s top pitching prospects, and the White Sox saw plenty of that talent during Spring Training in Arizona back in March.

    Nastrini pitched in five games, making three starts, while posting an 0-1 record with a 3.77 ERA in 14.1 innings pitched with 11 strikeouts and nine walks.

    When it comes to stuff, there’s a lot to like about Nastrini. He’s got a fastball that sizzles up to 98 miles-per-hour, with three plus-off speed offerings that keep batters off balance and leads to plenty of strikeouts.

    Nastrini posted a 29.7% strikeout rate against lefties, and a 26.1% whiff rate against righties between Double-A and Triple-A in Chicago and Los Angeles’ farm systems last year.

    Overall, Nastrini notched a 9-5 record with a 4.08 ERA in 25 starts last season. Those numbers came in tandem with 139 strikeouts compared to 54 walks in 114.2 innings pitched.

    The only knock on Nastrini, and what has prevented him from becoming a truly elite pitching prospect across MLB, is a lack of firm control over his pitching repertoire.

    As the stats have already hinted at, walks have gotten him into trouble at various points in his minor league career, but the stuff has outshined his lack of control to the point he is now making his MLB debut for the White Sox.

    The Chicago White Sox start a three game series at home Monday against the Kansas City Royals, with first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. Central Time on Jackie Robinson Day.

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    Eli Ong

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  • What’s fueling the rise in arm injuries across MLB? A dangerous ‘cocktail’ of causes

    What’s fueling the rise in arm injuries across MLB? A dangerous ‘cocktail’ of causes

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    Matt Blake texted Cleveland Guardians pitcher Shane Bieber a conciliatory message over the weekend. As a member of the Cleveland player-development system in the 2010s, Blake aided Bieber’s rise from college walk-on to unanimous American League Cy Young Award winner in 2020. For a time, Bieber represented the modern model for the manufacturing of a big-league ace, a player who added strength to his frame, velocity to his fastball and spin to his offspeed pitches as he ascended the ranks.

    By the time Blake sent his text, though, Bieber had become part of a growing, more troubling demographic: talented young pitchers who will spend this season as spectators. Two days after the Miami Marlins announced 20-year-old phenom Eury Pérez would undergo Tommy John surgery, the Guardians disclosed Bieber, 28, would need the same procedure. A recent examination of 25-year-old Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Strider revealed damage to his elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament, which could result in his second Tommy John surgery. In New York, where Blake is now the Yankees pitching coach, the team has lost its ace, Gerrit Cole, until June with elbow inflammation and one of its top relievers, Jonathan Loaisiga, to year-ending elbow surgery.

    “As a pitching coach trying to get through nine innings worth of pitching every night over 162 games,” Blake said, “I’m pretty worried.”

    Pitching has always been hazardous for its practitioners. There is reason to believe it is only getting more challenging to keep them healthy. The opening days of the 2024 season have demonstrated the inherent fragility of the position. A recent story by The Ringer cited research from former MLB trainer Stan Conte that tallied 263 UCL surgeries in 2023, a steady uptick from 111 procedures performed in 2011. Of the 166 players who began the season on the injured list, as the New York Post reported, 132 were pitchers. If these trends continue, 2024 will be another banner year for arm injuries — and cause for alarm around the game. 

    The subject prompted sniping between Major League Baseball and the MLBPA on Saturday, as the two sides argued through press releases about the effect of the pitch clock, which was introduced in 2023 and shortened for 2024. MLBPA chief Tony Clark painted the league’s insistence on cutting time off the clock before the 2024 season against the wishes of players as “an unprecedented threat to our game.” MLB countered by citing unpublished analysis from Johns Hopkins University that found no link between the introduction of the clock and the surge of injuries. 

    The clock, however, was just one area of concern among players, coaches and managers surveyed by The Athletic this weekend. Those conversations presented a tapestry of additional reasons for the injury problem, including the industry’s relentless push for optimization, the encouragement of players to chase maximum velocity and spin, and the usage of training methods that encourage year-round, full-throttle workouts. To some, the explanations are interwoven and intractable. Untangling the knot may require years of research and re-evaluation. 

    “To protect these guys’ arms is paramount,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “And clearly we haven’t nailed it.” 

    This season began with baseball’s most heralded pitchers on the shelf. Los Angeles Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw underwent shoulder surgery last October. Texas Rangers pitcher Max Scherzer is recovering from back surgery, while his teammate Jacob deGrom is rehabbing from a second Tommy John surgery. Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander experienced shoulder soreness in spring training. All those pitchers are 35 and older, the sort of age where the body no longer cooperates with the rigors of the big-league schedule. 


    Not long ago, Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcántara were on their way to becoming twin aces for the Marlins. Now both will spend 2024 rehabbing from surgery. (Megan Briggs / Getty Images)

    For MLB, the more pressing concern is the fleet of arms breaking down soon after reaching prominence. Miami Marlins starter Sandy Alcántara, the unanimous winner of the 2022 National League Cy Young Award, underwent elbow reconstruction last season. So did Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Shane McClanahan, a little more than a year after starting the All-Star Game. Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Brandon Woodruff will miss this season because of shoulder surgery. Same story for Kansas City Royals pitcher Kyle Wright, a 21-game winner for Atlanta in 2022. 

    “Our sport deserves our best pitchers to be on the mound,” Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said. “Regardless of the era you’re in, the starting pitcher matchup is the first thing you look at every day. You want the big boys out there. You want the guys that are elite, and more and more are getting hurt.”

    To research the problem, MLB commissioned a study last October, which has sprawled to include conversations with 100 people around the game, including medical officials. When the study is completed, the league intends to create a task force and provide recommendations to clubs about how to keep pitchers healthy. 

    The sport has grappled with the problem since its inception.  In another era, pitchers were believed to get hurt by overuse. Teams altered how they used pitchers in hopes of preserving them. Gone are the days of the exhausted starter, pushed to the brink at 125 pitches or more, trying to finish the seventh or eighth inning. The new archetype asks the pitcher not to ease into outings but explode at the outset. Go as hard as you can for as long as you can, is the new mantra. An influx of data about the shape and movement of pitches offered teams granular ways to make pitchers better. The data did not, however, offer an answer for how to keep them healthier.

    “I’ve heard through my years managing that we ask less out of starting pitchers because we don’t leave them in the game long enough and they don’t throw 100 pitches as much anymore,” Hinch said. “Yet we ask them for max velo, max shape, max everything, and virtually train year-round.”

    Hinch pointed to Tarik Skubal, a 27-year-old Tigers lefty who underwent Tommy John surgery in college and flexor tendon surgery in 2022. Skubal trained this past winter so that when he arrived at spring training, he touched 99 mph in his first session of live batting practice. “Go to Tarik Skubal and tell him, ‘Hey, ease it off and throw 92 mph,’ and see how that works out for you,” Hinch said. “No. Because we’re asking our athletes to compete at the highest level.”

    To some retired players, the quest for elevated velocity and spin has put pitchers at risk. Dan Haren, a 13-year veteran who now works as a pitching strategist for the Arizona Diamondbacks, posted on X about his Instagram feed providing footage of “guys throwing weighted balls at max effort against a wall, with a crow hop, with his bros cheering him on.” Added Roberts, “The body is designed, in my opinion, to only take so much force and velocity before it gives way.” 


    Shane Bieber hadn’t allowed a run over two outings this season when it was announced he would undergo elbow surgery. (Jason Miller / Getty Images)

    Some, like Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell, suggested pitchers will always try to throw harder. “I don’t think the pursuit of velocity is ever going to end,” Counsell said. “Because it’s something that makes pitchers better. I don’t think we should demonize the pursuit of velocity.”

    Yet the industry has championed this trend by shortening the outings of starting pitchers and encouraging them to maximize their output. Not only do pitchers throw their fastballs as hard as possible, they throw offspeed pitches with utmost force, in hopes of generating unique movement and missing bats. “The types of deliveries that create the outlier shapes are probably more stressful in some ways,” Blake said. “I think the maximization of force to create the shapes probably doesn’t help. When you’re chasing 20 inches of break or 20 inches of ride or the high velo, I think there is some level of physical cost.” 

    Despite protestations from MLB officials, players will continue to complain about the clock. The innovation trimmed 24 minutes off the average game last season. The timer in 2023 granted pitchers 15 seconds to act with the bases empty and 20 with runners aboard. MLB’s 11-man competition committee voted to shave two seconds off the 20-second clock for 2024 despite objections from the players. 

    Los Angeles Angels pitcher Tyler Anderson suggested pitchers might place more stress on their arm rather than their legs because of the clock. But he doubted any study could show a correlation between decreased time between pitches and increased injuries. The act of pitching was already unhealthy enough. “Rob Manfred knows it’s really hard to prove, would be my guess,” Anderson said. 

    The union sees the clock as a bogeyman. The commissioner’s office sees their complaint as a straw man. For coaches like Blake, who must navigate the season as injuries continue, the clock is only part of the problem, along with the perilous chase of velocity and spin. 

    “I don’t think any of them are the most responsible,” Blake said. “But the cocktail of them all is hard to get by.”

    The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, Sam Blum, Patrick Mooney, Cody Stavenhagen contributed reporting.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Rosenthal: Pitching injury crisis has no easy fix, but baseball’s leaders better get to work on one

    (Top photo of Strider: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)

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    The New York Times

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  • Inside the ‘very predatory’ world of illegal betting that lured Shohei Ohtani’s interpreter

    Inside the ‘very predatory’ world of illegal betting that lured Shohei Ohtani’s interpreter

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    In the story Shohei Ohtani’s interpreter Ippei Mizuhara initially told to ESPN, the two men logged into Ohtani’s bank account together on eight or nine occasions in 2023 and wired increments of $500,000 to Mathew Bowyer, an alleged illegal bookmaker under federal investigation. In the story Ohtani told the public days after Mizuhara recanted his initial claims and was fired by the Dodgers, the interpreter stole the money to pay off his gambling debts.

    Both versions of the story generated a question that stumped the general public: Why would a bookie extend a line of credit of at least $4.5 million to someone who said he was drawing an $85,000 salary as an interpreter with the Los Angeles Angels? The scenario was easier to understand for those acquainted with the inner workings of gambling markets.

    “Credit is the lifeblood of illegal bookmakers,” said Chris Grove, a gambling industry entrepreneur and investor. “So we shouldn’t be surprised when an illegal bookmaker utilizes credit to attract a high-value customer, especially when that customer has shown they are good for it.”

    The scandal has captivated the industry of baseball and the larger sporting world at a time when gambling has become intertwined with sports consumption. Ohtani, the 29-year-old two-time American League MVP who recently signed a 10-year, $700 million contract, said he never bet on baseball or any other sports, and he has not been accused of any wrongdoing. He described himself as a victim duped by a friend. “Ippei has been stealing money from my account and has told lies,” he said through his new interpreter, Will Ireton. Major League Baseball has opened an investigation. The IRS’s Los Angeles field office has partnered with the Department for Homeland Security to investigate Mizuhara and Bowyer.

    The story also opened a portal for the public into the lesser-understood world of illegal bookmaking. Since the Supreme Court struck down a 1992 federal law that effectively banned sports betting in most states, the majority of the country has gained access to legally wagering on games. Yet a 2022 report by the American Gaming Association estimated that Americans wagered a total of $63.8 billion with illegal bookies and unregulated offshore sites in 2021. So why do these bookies and offshore operations maintain such a thriving business?

    The allure of credit — the ability to bet money you don’t actually have — is the primary reason, as gleaned from interviews with gambling attorneys, entrepreneurs, researchers and professional gamblers. These experts framed most of their commentary on the broader world of illegal gambling, rather than the saga of Ohtani and Mizuhara. But they also pointed to a variety of additional factors that drive bettors toward bookmakers, including the promise of privacy, the ability to avoid taxes on winnings, the removal of artificial betting limits and the lasting appeal of convenience.

    “The Ohtani situation is a good reminder that there’s still a thriving illegal market, because there’s still folks in the illegal market willing to offer things to consumers that the regulated market can’t or won’t,” Grove said.

    The prosecution team tracking Bowyer is the same group that investigated a different gambling ring run by former minor-league baseball player Wayne Nix, the Los Angeles Times reported. One of the dozen people charged in that probe is former Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig, who pleaded not guilty. The Nix probe demonstrated the modernity of the practice. The concept of meeting a bookie in a darkened alley or a seedy saloon is outdated. Nix used a network of bookies who collected bets through a website and a telephone line, according to the Washington Post. 

    The convenience adds to the appeal, especially when placing an illegal bet only requires clicking a few buttons rather than walking into a casino in Las Vegas, said one professional gambler. “The last thing a guy wants to do is go to Circa Sportsbook every day and put down $20,000 on (games),” Ingram said. “Some people just text a person, or they go to the website.”

    Bookies often maintain a personal relationship with their clients, forgiving certain bets, offering free play credits or commiserating over “bad beats,” the unlucky results that bond all gamblers. “They offer customer service that sometimes can’t be offered through an app,” said Timothy Fong, co-director of the UCLA Gambling Studies Program.

    Fong, a psychiatrist, studies the causes and treatment options for gambling addicts. Some of those who bet through illegal bookmakers desire anonymity. Others don’t want to pay taxes on a potential jackpot.

    Daniel Wallach, a sports betting and gambling attorney in Florida who has previously written for The Athletic, suggested a sense of loyalty can keep bettors intertwined with bookies. “Those patterns may be hard to break, given all the incentives,” Wallach said. “There may be better lines, better odds” for a regular.

    Bookies also offer bets that legal betting companies either can’t or won’t, depending on state laws or risks of exposure. Some states, for instance, bar betting on their local college teams, and against the backdrop of the March Madness college basketball tournaments, the NCAA is trying to restrict college betting further; last week, NCAA president Charlie Baker urged states to ban prop betting on college athletes entirely. Bookies exist in a world unconcerned by those developments, which can be attractive to bettors looking for specific types of action that legal books might not offer.

    “​​Instead of 30 kinds of cereal that they’re offering,” Fong said, “I can get 100 different kinds of cereal that my bookie is offering.”


    Viewers watch March Madness NCAA Tournament games at the sportsbook at the Borgata Casino in New Jersey this March. (Wayne Parry / Associated Press)

    In the case of Mizuhara and Ohtani, location matters. California is one of 12 states without legal sports betting. In 2022, voters there struck down a pair of competing ballot initiatives to keep it that way, showing just how tough it will be to legalize bets amid an expensive and often bitter fight between tribal casinos and private betting companies. Proposition 26 would have legalized in-person betting at tribal casinos and horse tracks. Proposition 27 would have permitted online sports betting.

    By the time voters rejected those initiatives, Mizuhara was already facing more than $1 million in gambling debt, he told ESPN. Mizuhara said he had met Bowyer at a poker game in San Diego in 2021. To boost his business, Bowyer told associates that Ohtani was his customer, the Los Angeles Times reported. Diane Bass, Bowyer’s attorney, has said her client had zero contact with Ohtani.

    In many cases, a player must be referred to a bookie by an existing client, with the existing client sometimes getting a referral bonus when the new player bets. If the new player does not pay the bookie when needed, the referral will be cut off; peer pressure often serves as enough of a first resort to keep bettors paying their gambling debts.

    Bookies also offer incentives for clients to pay in the form of free play or other forms of free bets; the bettor is incentivized to pay up, and use the free bets to keep chasing their losses and get back into the black. In cases where bettors are deeply in debt, bookies accept partial payments or put clients on weekly or monthly payment plans. Payments are frequently made on cash transfer apps like Venmo or PayPal, though at times cash is mailed, depending on the size of the transaction.

    Mizuhara told ESPN that Bowyer extended him a line of credit that allowed his losses to extend into the millions, which experts described as customary for a bookmaker who felt confident in the bettor’s ability to pay.

    Bookmakers can make a lucrative living, especially if they can attract a few deep-pocketed, high-value clients — assuming they can stay out of the crosshairs of the authorities. Bettors themselves rarely, if ever, face legal consequences for betting with illegal bookies; the government has generally looked to prosecute operators, not clients, when it goes after illegal bookmaking at all. At the same time, though, the lack of government oversight can also come back to sting bettors who win big. If the bookie decides not to pay out a significant win, players are left with few options.

    Some of the largest unregulated betting operations are outside the jurisdiction of U.S. state regulators altogether — because they are based in foreign countries. These so-called “offshore” sites often model themselves to look like regulated American sportsbooks, and have domain names like “.lv” to suggest they are based in Las Vegas (in that example, lv stands for Latvia). These typically do not offer the personal experience that US-based illegal bookies do, generally do not offer credit, and transferring cash in and out can be difficult; some gamblers use cryptocurrency to make transactions with these books. A small subset of bettors have placed wagers on sites like these without knowing they were illegal, having stumbled onto one of the raft of unregulated sites that offer the veneer of propriety.

    “You look at it: it’s clean, it’s fresh, it looks like a regulated thing,” Fong said. “It looks no different than a cheap version of DraftKings or FanDuel. It’s got all the bets on it.” The unaware consumer, Fong explained, “has no idea that what they’re actually participating in is unregulated, unprotected gambling activity.”

    If they do well enough — and can be certain of being paid out — betting with an illegal operation can be lucrative for the bettor, as well; besides taxing a player’s winnings, regulated websites also sometimes limit the action of gamblers perceived to be winners, experts said. The bookmaker may offer more freedom, certainly from taxes but also from limits. “In the illegal market, you’re not likely going to find any restraints or restrictions on the amount you can wager,” said Wallach.

    The evidence suggests Mizuhara was far from a winning bettor. Mizuhara painted himself as an addict unable to win back his losses. In those cases, the usage of credit aids the bookmaker, too.

    “What they do is they let these people go in deep in money that they don’t have,” said the professional gambler. “It’s very predatory. It’s sad, really, because this is how a lot of the world works, in gambling.”

    (Top photo of Mizuhara and Ohtani at a Los Angeles Rams game in December: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

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    The New York Times

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  • Everything you need to know about the Dodgers Opening Week at Chavez Ravine

    Everything you need to know about the Dodgers Opening Week at Chavez Ravine

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    What to Know

    • The first homestand of the season at Dodger Stadium includes a four-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals (3/28 – 3/31) and a three-game series with the San Francisco Giants (4/1 – 4/3).
    • The homestand includes a Friday Night Drone Show and Healthcare Appreciation Night
    • The first three giveaways of the season include a Freddie Freeman bobblehead, a Fernando Valenzuela jersey, and a zip-up hoodie.

    As the sun set over the iconic Dodger Stadium following the team’s home opening victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday, a comforting feeling swept across the ravine.

    That feeling was the return of baseball and the Boys in Blue. The Dodgers are back from their Opening two-game series in Seoul, South Korea. They’re done with Camelback Ranch in Arizona and the annual exhibition series with the Angels.

    Every game counts now and the road to the 2024 World Series has officially begun with all 30 teams starting their season.

    But just because Opening Day at Dodger Stadium has finished, that doesn’t mean the fun has to stop as there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played in Los Angeles over the next week.

    The Dodgers still have three more games with the Cardinals before welcoming the rival San Francisco Giants to Dodger Stadium on Monday. This next week of baseball promises thrilling games, star-studded ceremonies, giveaways, and an unforgettable experience for fans across the Southland.

    The Dodgers continue their clash against the Cardinals on Friday night with the first of 10 mesmerizing postgame drone shows. That’s right, the drone shows are back again this season, lighting up the sky with captivating displays and delicious musical beats. We guarantee it’s a spectacle filled with awe and wonder, and something you won’t want to miss.

    The series continues on Saturday with the first bobblehead giveaway of the 2024 season. The first 40,000 fans in attendance will receive a coveted Freddie Freeman bobblehead courtesy of Bank of America.

    The series with the Red Birds concludes on Sunday afternoon at 4:10 PM PT, wrapping up a thrilling weekend of baseball.

    But don’t worry Dodger fans, the magic of Opening Week doesn’t end there. The calendar flips to April when the San Francisco Giants make their way to Southern California on Monday, writing a new chapter in the longtime rivalry with the first three-game series of the season.

    All fans in attendance for the first game will receive a gray Fernando Valenzuela jersey presented by Bank of America.

    Tuesday night is the annual Healthcare Appreciation Night, celebrating the heroes of health care. Before the game, various healthcare workers and UCLA Health Westwood Pediatric will receive special recognition during a touching and heartwarming ceremony. Fans who pre-purchase a ticket package for Healthcare Appreciation Night will receive a free when entering the ballpark.

    The seven-game Opening Week homestand concludes on Wednesday night with another giveaway. Fans in attendance will receive a free Dodgers Zip-up hoodie sweatshirt presented by Bank of America.

    Throughout the homestand, the Los Angeles Dodgers Foundation (LADF) invites fans to join in supporting vital causes through various initiatives, including a 50/50 raffle, auctions for prized memorabilia, and personalized ribbon board messages, all aimed at making a positive impact on education, health care, homelessness, and social justice in Los Angeles.

    The stage is set, the players are ready, and the fans are eager. The 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers Opening Week promises a tapestry of emotions, experiences, and cherished memories, reminding us all why baseball is more than just a game, it’s a celebration of unity, passion, and the enduring spirit of the City of Angels.

    Tickets for all games throughout the season are available at Dodgers.com/Tickets.

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    Michael Duarte

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  • 2024 MLB ‘Wild-Card Era’ Franchise Rankings: Rangers break into top 10, Cubs fall out

    2024 MLB ‘Wild-Card Era’ Franchise Rankings: Rangers break into top 10, Cubs fall out

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    As Jonah Heim squeezed the final strike of the 2023 postseason and Josh Sborz spiked his mitt on the mound to celebrate the Texas Rangers’ first World Series title, a thought crossed my mind: How will this change the franchise rankings?

    See, the Wild-Card Era (1995 to present) franchise rankings are not a creation of my fallible mind. They are borne from a tested, trusted, completely objective, never-been-questioned, all-math, no-bias formula borrowed from football writer Bob Sturm and tweaked to fit baseball’s postseason structure.

    Winning the World Series (WS): 9 points
    Losing in the World Series (WSL): 6 points
    Losing in the Championship Series (CS): 3 points
    Losing in Division Series (DS): 2 points
    Losing in Wild Card (WC): 1 point

    As of last year, the scoring system also incentivizes division titles (+1 point) and penalizes prolonged losing cycles, docking teams (-1 point) each time they lose at least 90 games in consecutive seasons.

    Tally the point totals for the past 29 seasons, from 1995 to 2023, and the result is the franchise rankings as listed below — along with each team’s point totals from the past decade, and average points per season. Tiebreakers are World Series wins, then World Series losses, then Championship Series appearances, then Division Series appearances, then division titles.


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    The Pirates’ 76-86 season in 2023 didn’t dig their hole deeper, but it didn’t get them out of it, either. Since winning the 1979 World Series, they have reached the postseason six times — three-year runs from 1990-92 and 2013-15. The team is hoping its next core will author another such run. After signing Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller to extensions, the Pirates need continued progression from young big leaguers — Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinki, Henry Davis — and top prospects Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Termarr Johnson.

    Total playoff years: 13DS, 14WC, 15WC

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    8

    Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

    Average: -.14 points per season

    The Royals bottomed out at 106 losses last season, tying the 2005 Royals for most losses in franchise history, and fell to 29th in this year’s franchise ranking as they were vaulted by the Orioles. After seven consecutive losing seasons, the Royals clearly are trying to turn a corner now. This winter, they guaranteed Bobby Witt Jr. $288.7 million, filled out their bench and pitching staff with free agents, and unveiled plans for a proposed downtown Kansas City ballpark. This fall marks a decade since the Royals ended their 29-year playoff drought and reached the World Series — then won it a year later. It remains the case that no team has made the playoffs fewer times in the Wild-Card Era than the Royals.

    Total playoff years: 14WSL, 15WS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    9

    Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

    Average: .24 points per season

    With the Detroit Lions defeating the Los Angeles Rams in January for their first playoff win since 1992, the Reds now own the longest active streak of not advancing in the playoffs among the four major US men’s sports leagues. Cincinnati swept the Dodgers in the 1995 NLDS, then were swept by the Braves in the NLCS, and they haven’t advanced in any of their four playoff seasons since. The current Reds core has a chance to remove themselves from that trivia answer. The lineup has several potential stars and only one projected starter over the age of 28.

    Total playoff years: 95CS, 10DS, 12DS, 13WC, 20WC

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    3

    Last decade: -2 points (MLB rank: 30th)

    The Orioles jumped two spots in this ranking by winning 101 games and the AL East last year, even if their playoff run fizzled fast. Adley Rutschman was AL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2022, Gunnar Henderson won the award in 2023, and now top prospect Jackson Holliday is one of the favorites to win in 2024. The Orioles still have the best farm system in baseball, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, even after trading top-100 prospect Joey Ortiz and former top-100 prospect DL Hall to Milwaukee for former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes.

    Total playoff years: 96CS, 97CS, 12DS, 14CS, 16WC, 23DS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    8

    Last decade: 7 points (MLB rank: t-19th)

    The Blue Jays are one of a few teams toward the bottom of this list that would fare better if this exercise included the entire 1990s instead of starting in 1995. Toronto won back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993, but didn’t return to the playoffs for another 21 years. Though the Blue Jays have been a playoff team five times in the past nine seasons, including 2023, they’ve been swept in the Wild-Card Series in their last three tries. Even after failing to land a premier free agent this offseason, the Blue Jays have the bats, gloves and arms to be a division winner in 2024 — but so do three other teams in the AL East.

    Total playoff years: 15CS, 16CS, 20WC, 22WC, 23WC

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    0

    Last decade: 10 points (MLB rank: 15th)

    The Rockies stayed in the same spot in the franchise rankings but were deducted a point for having back-to-back 90-loss seasons. They chased 94 losses in 2022 with 103 in 2023 — their first triple-digit loss total in franchise history. Todd Helton is a Hall of Famer, bringing back memories of the Rockies’ magical run to the 2007 World Series. The other bit of good news is that Nolan Jones could be a certified star in Colorado. But this doesn’t look like it’ll be the Rockies’ year to win their first division title. FanGraphs has their current playoff odds at 0.1 percent; their odds of winning the NL West, however, are 0.0 percent.

    Total playoff years: 95DS, 07WSL, 09DS, 17WC, 18DS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    3

    Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

    The Brewers won their division last season yet still have the same points total. What gives? Well, time for a mea culpa. In auditing and updating the franchise rankings spreadsheet last month, I discovered an error. From 2001 to 2004, the Brewers lost 94, 106, 94 and 94 games, respectively, so they should have been deducted three points. I had only deducted one. To Brewers fans: I regret the error, just as the Brewers surely regret that era. As The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner wrote recently, Milwaukee has not finished last in their division since 2004. The Brewers have never won a World Series and have only one pennant (1982), but they’re reliably solid in a small market. They are now without Corbin Burnes, but they still have plenty of talent on the roster, plus Law’s No. 2 farm system.

    Total playoff years: 08DS, 11CS, 18CS, 19WC, 20WC, 21DS, 23WC

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    3

    Last decade: 11 points (MLB rank: 14th)

    The Mariners had the pieces to be a playoff team again last season, having already exorcized demons in 2023 to end a two-decade postseason drought. But after getting hot in the second half Seattle stumbled in September and was eliminated from the playoffs with one game left in the season. On paper, they have one of the league’s best pitching staffs for 2024. The lineup still features Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford, but it has been overhauled with the additions of a new Mitch (Garver), an old Mitch (Haniger), Luke Raley and Jorge Polanco in hopes of getting more runs and fewer whiffs.

    Total playoff years: 95CS, 97DS, 00CS, 01CS, 22DS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    2

    Last decade: 2 points (MLB rank: t-25th)

    Never let it be said that this franchise-ranking formula doesn’t punish teams that subject their fans to prolonged down cycles (see also: Brewers blurb). The Nats/Expos lost five points for consecutive 90-loss seasons in the 1990s and 2000s, which they more than made up for with five playoff seasons (and a World Series title) in the 2010s. But their current rebuild has cost them another two points. There were some positive signs last year, like Lane Thomas’ 20-20 season, CJ Abrams’ second half and the law firm of (Josiah) Gray and (MacKenzie) Gore figuring some things out. Next, we await the arrival of top prospects Dylan Crews, James Wood and Brady House.

    Total playoff years: 12DS, 14DS, 16DS, 17DS, 19WS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    7

    Last decade: 16 points (MLB rank: 8th)

    I ended last year’s blurb this way: Unless Luis Arraez bats .400, offense will likely be an issue again in 2023. He flirted with .400 until July! Offense was indeed an issue, one the Marlins addressed by adding Josh Bell and Jake Burger at the trade deadline. Losing Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara to Tommy John surgery was a massive blow softened by the performances of Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez and Braxton Garrett as the Marlins secured a wild-card spot. The Marlins have never won their division, and odds are against that changing in 2024, but they have enough intriguing talent to stay on the fringe of the playoff picture.

    Total playoff years: 97WS, 03WS, 20DS, 23WC

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    5

    Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

    Believers in positive regression will find no finer team to back than the 2024 Padres. The club’s late owner, Peter Seidler, spent big in his final years to bring a World Series to San Diego, and so cutting payroll was a priority this offseason. The team is now without one of the best hitters (Juan Soto), starters (Blake Snell) and closers (Josh Hader) in the game. The amount of talent they’ve lost is staggering, underscoring how strange it was to see them come up short in 2023. The lineup still has Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts locked in long-term and Ha-Seong Kim in the fold for another season. The rotation has Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, depth replenished in the Soto trade and now, after A.J. Preller’s Wednesday night blockbuster, another ace-caliber starter: Dylan Cease.

    Total playoff years: 96DS, 98WSL, 05DS, 06DS, 20DS, 22CS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    4

    Last decade: 2 points (MLB rank: t-24th)

    The Tigers took a surprising second place in the AL Central last season, their best finish since 2016, though few confused them for a contender. They saw encouraging signs in 2023 from Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene (when healthy), Kerry Carpenter and several pitchers, especially Tarik Skubal. They’ve added a handful of veterans this offseason — Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Shelby Miller and Andrew Chafin — and have a couple top prospects approaching the majors. Better days should be ahead for an organization that hasn’t gained a franchise-ranking point (and, in fact, has lost two) since 2014.

    Total playoff years: 06WSL, 11CS, 12WSL, 13CS, 14DS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    7

    Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

    We begin the way we always do, with an updated win/loss record since the 2007 name change.

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays: 645-972 (.399)

    Tampa Bay Rays: 1,366-1,125 (.548)

    The 2023 Rays raced out to a record-setting start and still managed to win 99 games despite being without star shortstop Wander Franco and losing starters Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to elbow surgeries. They’ve continued team-building their way this winter — prioritizing young regulars and undervalued platoon players and relievers — and will, in all likelihood, be a handful for the rest of the AL East in 2024.

    Total playoff years: 08WSL, 10DS, 11DS, 13DS, 19DS, 20WSL, 21DS, 22WC, 23WC

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    9

    Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

    When writing a year ago “it’s hard to argue the White Sox are better than they were in 2022, and their farm system is one of the weakest in baseball,” I somehow still fell woefully short of predicting their 2023 season. The White Sox self-destructed. They fired Ken Williams and Rick Hahn, lost 101 games and moved seven veterans at the trade deadline. The positive outcome is that the farm system no longer stinks. Law ranked them 10th and noted, “This is about as good as their system has ever looked.” The same cannot be said of their major-league roster. The White Sox have had consecutive 90-loss seasons only once since 1995; they’re projected to add a second this season. They are playing for the future, as evidenced by the Dylan Cease trade Wednesday night.

    Total playoff years: 00DS, 05WS, 08DS, 20WC, 21DS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    1

    Last decade: 3 points (MLB rank: t-22nd)

    The Mets haven’t advanced in the playoffs since their pennant-winning 2015 season. After the Mets won 101 games in 2022, the 2023 season saw Edwin Díaz injured, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer traded, and the Mets missing the playoffs by nine games. They still have the highest payroll in the game, but expectations are lower this season. Spring training started with a sour note as Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a right shoulder strain. FanGraphs gives the Braves a 98.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, the Phillies at 59 percent and the Marlins and Mets tied at 29.5 percent.

    Total playoff years: 99CS, 00WSL, 06CS, 15WSL, 16WC, 22WC

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    1

    Last decade: 9 points (MLB rank: 16th)

    The Twins blew some long-standing narratives to smithereens last fall by ending their 18-game postseason losing streak and sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. Then they lost Sonny Gray to free agency, traded Jorge Polanco and cut payroll. They remain the favorite in the AL Central — a division they’ve won three of the past five years — but may be leaving the door open. The Pablo López-led rotation has upside; Jhoan Duran and the bullpen are nasty; and a lineup that starts with Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Max Kepler is likely to do some serious damage.

    Total playoff years: 02CS, 03DS, 04DS, 06DS, 09DS, 10DS, 17WC, 19DS, 20WC, 23DS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    6

    Last decade: 8 points (MLB rank: t-17th)

    Before 2022, the A’s hadn’t endured a 100-loss season since 1979. Now they’ve done it two years in a row for the first time since 1964-65. They lost a rankings point for that, dropped one spot in the rankings and will surely continue in that downward direction. Law ranked their farm system last. In 2023, Brent Rooker had an early breakout, Ryan Noda and Zack Gelof emerged and Esteury Ruiz led the AL with 67 steals. But overshadowing all of that in Oakland is the team’s desire to flee to Las Vegas and fans’ attempts to make their objections heard.

    Total playoff years: 00DS, 01DS, 02DS, 03DS, 06CS, 12DS, 13DS, 14WC, 18WC, 19WC, 20DS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    2

    Last decade: 4 points (MLB rank: 21st)

    Let’s break down the Wild-Card Era Angels by decade.

    1995-99: 387-405 (.489)

    2000s: 900-720 (.556)

    2010s: 822-798 (.507)

    2020s: 176-208 (.458)

    Just as I suspected. The Angels are feeling rather fourth place-ish. They haven’t had a winning record since 2015 (their last “of Anaheim” season), haven’t made the playoffs since 2014, and haven’t won a playoff game since 2009. A 2023 recap: Arte Moreno didn’t sell the team, and GM Perry Minasian didn’t trade Shohei Ohtani before the season, didn’t trade him after the season, made a big bet as a trade deadline buyer and lost. Now the Angels trudge toward whatever is next. They have Mike Trout and Law’s 29th-ranked farm system, and no Ohtani.

    Total playoff years: 02WS, 04DS, 05CS, 07DS, 08DS, 09CS, 14DS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    0

    Last decade: 3 points (MLB rank: t-22nd)

    The Cubs hold the third tiebreaker (Championship Series appearances) over the Angels but were knocked out of the top 10 this year after being jumped by the Diamondbacks and Rangers. The Cubs ended the 2023 season one game back of a wild-card spot. The Chicago roster, though, hasn’t changed substantially since. They lost Marcus Stroman, brought back Cody Bellinger, traded for Michael Busch and signed Shota Imanaga and Héctor Neris. They also have the No. 5 farm system, per Law. The NL Central race should be compelling; FanGraphs projects all five teams between 77 and 84 wins.

    Total playoff years: 98DS, 03CS, 07DS, 08DS, 15CS, 16WS, 17CS, 18WC, 20WC

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    3

    Last decade: 20 points (MLB rank: 4th)

    Snakes alive. They climbed three spots in this year’s ranking. They also didn’t exist at the start of the Wild-Card Era, so if we look at their average points per season they rank 10th, ahead of the Phillies by 0.01. Indeed, here come the D-Backs. They may not have won the offseason like the division-rival Dodgers, but they have Corbin Carroll and Zac Gallen and enough talent surrounding them to make noise again in 2024. As for the new arrivals: Eduardo Rodríguez fortifies a rotation that could have used one more starter last fall, Eugenio Suárez gives Arizona more thump at third base, and Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk are mix-and-match platoon options at DH and in the outfield.

    Total playoff years: 99DS, 01WS, 02DS, 07CS, 11DS, 17DS, 23WSL

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    1

    Last decade: 8 points (MLB rank: t-17th)

    The Phillies in the past two years have played in a World Series and come one win short of appearing in another. After flailing for most of the 2010s, they’ve built a formidable core and so far have spent to keep it mostly intact. They let Rhys Hoskins walk in free agency this winter but brought back Aaron Nola and extended Zack Wheeler. This is more or less a run-it-back year for Philadelphia. They have the horses, and they have them healthy for now. But they’ll need to click from the jump if the Phillies are going to win their first division title since 2011.

    Total playoff years: 07DS, 08WS, 09WSL, 10CS, 11DS, 22WSL, 23CS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    3

    Last decade: 7 points (MLB rank: t-19th)

    A World Series title doesn’t guarantee you a top-10 spot in the franchise rankings, but the nine points the Rangers bagged for winning their first ring last fall got them there. It was far from an ideal season for Texas. Jacob deGrom made only six starts before suffering an elbow injury. Nathan Eovaldi and Corey Seager both missed significant time in the regular season. The team fell out of first place and nearly lost their wild-card spot. But Seager, Adolis García, Josh Jung and Evan Carter led the Rangers lineup in October, and the pitching arms of Eovaldi, Jordan Montgomery, José Leclerc and Josh Sborz did the rest. There are reasons to doubt the Rangers in 2024, but they’re about as good as they were last spring.

    Total playoff years: 96DS, 98DS, 99DS, 10WSL, 11WSL, 12WC, 15DS, 16DS, 23WS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    2

    Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

    The Guardians couldn’t give Tito Francona a storybook finish to his likely Hall of Fame career. They played .500 ball in the first half, were 10 games worse than that in the second half and finished third (or lower) in the AL Central for the first time since 2015. Their overall position on this list is incredibly respectable, especially since they’re the only one of the top 13 teams without a World Series title juicing their numbers. The Guardians have made the playoffs 13 times in the 29 years of the Wild-Card Era, won the division 11 times and captured three pennants. With José Ramírez, a young cast of hitters and a strong pitching staff, the Guardians have a shot at the AL Central crown this season.

    Total playoff years: 95WSL, 96DS, 97WSL, 98CS, 99DS, 01DS, 07CS, 13WC, 16WSL, 17DS, 18DS, 20WC, 22DS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    1

    Last decade: 17 points (MLB rank: t-6th)

    Three World Series titles will take you a long way, so the Giants are still sitting pretty here at No. 7 despite not seeing much playoff success since 2014. They backslid from 107 wins in 2021 to 81 in 2022 to 79 in 2023, leading to manager Gabe Kapler’s ouster. This offseason they signed Jordan Hicks, Jorge Soler and Jung Hoo Lee, traded for former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, who’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and waited out the market to land free agent Matt Chapman on a remarkably palatable three-year contract with two opt-outs. The Giants, however, still seem undermanned as they face an uphill climb in a division led by the Dodgers and the defending NL champs in Arizona.

    Total playoff years: 97DS, 00DS, 02WSL, 03DS, 10WS, 12WS, 14WS, 16DS, 21DS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    1

    Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

    Houston has reached the ALCS in seven consecutive seasons, played in four World Series and twice — including 2023 — fallen one win short. They are tied with the Dodgers for most points in the past decade; Houston holds the tiebreaker. They’d be in the top five in this year’s franchise rankings if not for the three points deducted for 90-loss seasons in the early 2010s. For now, they’re well clear of the Giants and Guardians and nipping at the heels of the Red Sox. In 2024, the Astros return almost the same lineup as last season, but with an offensive upgrade at catcher in Yainer Díaz. They’ll have Justin Verlander back in the rotation, once healthy. And they have two top-end closers in Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly.

    Total playoff years: 97DS, 98DS, 99DS, 01DS, 04CS, 05WSL, 15DS, 17WS, 18CS, 19WSL, 20CS, 21WSL, 22WS, 23CS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    3

    Last decade: 46 points (MLB rank: t-1st)

    The long-term organizational momentum the Red Sox built with four World Series titles in the past 20 years has stalled. They’ve finished last in the AL East the past two seasons, with identical 78-84 records, and now they have a new chief baseball officer, Craig Breslow, but not a significantly upgraded roster. The Red Sox have strong left-handed hitters but could use some thunder from the right side at Fenway Park. With free-agent add Lucas Giolito out for the season, Boston needs another starter or two to lead the pitching staff alongside Brayan Bello. There’s still time to start spending, but the Red Sox so far have shown no urgency.

    Total playoff years: 95DS, 98DS, 99CS, 03CS, 04WS, 05DS, 07WS, 08CS, 09DS, 13WS, 16DS, 17DS, 18WS, 21CS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    0

    Last decade: 19 points (MLB rank: 5th)

    This wasn’t necessarily the top headline of the Dodgers’ offseason, but they finally ran down the Red Sox and stole fourth place in the franchise rankings. They are a Death Star. The Dodgers have an 11-year playoff streak going, with 10 division titles in that stretch. If the franchise rankings covered only the past decade, the Dodgers would be tied with the Astros at No. 1. They’ve operated at a 102-win clip in manager Dave Roberts’ eight years in Los Angeles, and all of that was before they added [huge breath] Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton and Teoscar Hernández, and re-signed Clayton Kershaw, Jason Heyward and Kiké Hernández. Probably a team to watch in 2024.

    Total playoff years: 95DS, 96DS, 04DS, 06DS, 08CS, 09CS, 13CS, 14DS, 15DS, 16CS, 17WSL, 18WSL, 19DS, 20WS, 21CS, 22DS, 23DS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    0

    Last decade: 46 points (MLB rank: t-1st)

    No movement in our top three for 2024, but a couple teams are in striking distance of the Cardinals this season. After three consecutive wild-card exits, St. Louis had a deeply disappointing 2023, finishing 71-91. It was their first losing season since 2007, and their first 90-loss season since 1990. The Cardinals overhauled their pitching staff this winter, bringing in veterans Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge. The talent in their lineup is still eye-popping, so with halfway decent pitching and positive regression from a few hitters the Cardinals could be back in 2024.

    Total playoff years: 96CS, 00CS, 01DS, 02CS, 04WSL, 05CS, 06WS, 09DS, 11WS, 12CS, 13WSL, 14CS, 15DS, 19CS, 20WC, 21WC, 22WC

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    0

    Last decade: 15 points (MLB rank: 9th)

    The only one of our top three teams to reach the postseason in 2023, the Braves won the NL East for the sixth consecutive season before bowing out again in the NLDS. They’ve already won a World Series in this competitive window, but it feels like they’ve left a lot on the table. The good news for Braves fans, and bad for most others, is the team’s current core isn’t going anywhere. The Braves have built a behemoth without a top-five payroll, as reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II all have agreed to long-term extensions.

    Total playoff years: 95WS, 96WSL, 97CS, 98CS, 99WSL, 00DS, 01CS, 02DS, 03DS, 04DS, 05DS, 10DS, 12WC, 13DS, 18DS, 19DS, 20CS, 21WS, 22DS, 23DS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    2

    Last decade: 24 points (MLB rank: 3rd)

    The Yankees are still the class of the Wild-Card Era, though they certainly haven’t been baseball’s top franchise recently. The overall body of work is immensely impressive: In the 29 seasons included in this exercise, the Yankees have 24 playoff berths, 15 division titles, seven AL pennants and five World Series titles. (Only one title and pennant, however, in the past two decades.) In 2023, the Yankees narrowly avoided their first losing season since 1992, but their 80 losses still were their most of the Wild-Card Era. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and Carlos Rodón all missed significant time with injury. Gerrit Cole was the AL Cy Young and also the Yankees’ only reliable starter last season, but now there’s uncertainty regarding his health for 2024. The Yankees will have Judge, Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo across the outfield. They added Marcus Stroman to the rotation. We’ll see if that’s enough.

    Total playoff years: 95DS, 96WS, 97DS, 98WS, 99WS, 00WS, 01WSL, 02DS, 03WSL, 04CS, 05DS, 06DS, 07DS, 09WS, 10CS, 11DS, 12CS, 15WC, 17CS, 18DS, 19CS, 20DS, 21WC, 22CS

    Consecutive 90-loss seasons

    0

    Last decade (since 2014): 17 points (MLB rank: t-6th)


    Rank

      

    Team

      

    Total

      

    Average

      

    Decade

      

    1

    110

    3.79

    17

    2

    81

    2.79

    24

    3

    72

    2.48

    15

    4

    68

    2.34

    46

    5

    66

    2.28

    19

    6

    65

    2.24

    46

    7

    48

    1.66

    14

    8

    48

    1.66

    17

    9

    37

    1.28

    14

    10

    33

    1.14

    7

    11

    30

    1.15

    8

    12

    29

    1

    20

    13

    29

    1

    3

    14

    25

    0.86

    4

    15

    22

    0.76

    8

    16

    21

    0.72

    9

    17

    19

    0.66

    3

    18

    19

    0.73

    14

    19

    17

    0.59

    1

    20

    17

    0.59

    2

    21

    16

    0.55

    1

    22

    14

    0.48

    16

    23

    14

    0.48

    2

    24

    14

    0.48

    11

    25

    10

    0.34

    1

    26

    10

    0.34

    10

    27

    9

    0.31

    7

    28

    9

    0.31

    -2

    29

    7

    0.24

    14

    30

    -4

    -0.14

    1

    (Top illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos by Justin Berl / Getty Images; Rob Tringali / Sportschrome; Matt Dirksen / Getty Images; Brian Blanco / Getty Images) 

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  • When your landlord bats leadoff: Inside the cliquish world of baseball real estate 

    When your landlord bats leadoff: Inside the cliquish world of baseball real estate 

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    Shortly after haggling his way out of free-agent purgatory and into a new contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Kiké Hernández asked his wife, Mariana, to investigate another market. She contacted former Dodger Rich Hill’s wife, Caitlin, with a request: Could the Hernándezes live in the Hills’ house again? 

    The Hills had bought the property, located in the Toluca Lake neighborhood, in 2017, soon after Rich signed a $48 million contract. The family decided not to sell it after Hill’s final season with the team in 2019. The house has since become a popular destination among Dodgers personnel. Catcher Austin Barnes lived there one season. Manager Dave Roberts has inquired about its availability. When Hernández rejoined the team at last year’s trade deadline, he moved into the house, which is a convenient 20-minute drive from Dodger Stadium, with access to three different highways. 

    “It’s very appealing, because of the location,” Hill said. 

    But that’s not its only selling point; almost as important is that the homeowner understands his tenants’ nomadic baseball lifestyle.

    When searching for a place to live, players often rely upon each other’s recommendations, connections, and familiarity with baseball’s unique schedule and travel. That has led to a different kind of hot stove market each winter, when baseball players buy, sell and trade homes amongst themselves — swapping houses, directing young players to the right spots and passing certain key properties down as the cycle repeats itself.

    It is not uncommon for players to report to spring training without a residence for the regular season. Sometimes free agents sign later than expected; sometimes trades happen without warning. In the final days of February, Toronto Blue Jays infielder Justin Turner was still looking for a lease in the suburbs of Toronto to sync up with his one-year, $13 million contract. Caleb Ferguson, a New York Yankees reliever acquired in early February, was scrambling to find somewhere on Manhattan’s Upper East Side with a park nearby for his newborn son. Surprised by a Feb. 11 trade from the Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins reliever Steven Okert said he had “no idea” where he would live in the Twin Cities. “I’ve never even been there before,” Okert said. 

    The primary problem is the length of the lease. The regular season lasts about six months. Renting a house often requires a longer commitment. “It’s always a pain,” Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu said. He described the process of finding housing as “throughout my time in professional baseball, one of the hardest things to do,” which is why his wife, Jordan, takes care of it. Spouses often shoulder the load: Yency Almonte, the reliever who was traded from the Dodgers to the Chicago Cubs in January, will live this summer in the Chicagoland home of Joe Kelly, the reliever who was traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Dodgers last summer; their wives brokered the deal.


    Yankee Stadium is DJ LeMahieu’s on-field home; he rents another residence to his fellow ballplayers. (Alex Trautwig / MLB via Getty Images)

    In the offseason, LeMahieu lives in the Detroit suburb of Birmingham, Mich., where he owns two homes. For nearly a decade, he has rented out the secondary residence to various Tigers. So many players have stayed there that LeMahieu has lost track. The first tenant was second baseman Ian Kinsler. The longest-standing resident was pitcher Daniel Norris. “I think they all left the places better than they found them,” LeMahieu said. “I came back and there was new stuff. Super clean. I was like, ‘Wow, this worked out really well.’”

    In 2022, his final year in Milwaukee, reliever Brent Suter lived in a home once occupied by former Brewers teammate Corey Knebel. Suter rented a townhouse through VRBO for his 2023 season with the Colorado Rockies. When he signed for 2024 with the Cincinnati Reds, his hometown team, Suter did not need to search for a house. But he did have the ballplayer network to thank.

    A few years earlier, while pitching for Cincinnati, Wade Miley purchased a four-bedroom home in nearby Anderson Township, Ohio. An older couple started building on a lot across the street. Miley eventually learned his new neighbors were Suter’s in-laws. He called his former teammate. “When I’m done with the Reds, I’m selling you this house,” Miley told Suter. Suter laughed at the offer. When Cincinnati placed Miley on waivers after the 2021 season, Suter received another text: “Go check out the house. We’ll open the garage for you.” Miley, Suter explained, “hooked us up with our dream house for life.”

    During his time with the Cleveland Guardians, first baseman Carlos Santana lived in Bratenahl, Ohio, an affluent suburb on the shores of Lake Erie. After Santana signed a three-year, $60 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies heading into 2018, he rented his home to former teammate Edwin Encarnación. Santana did not last long in Philadelphia. The Phillies shipped him to the Seattle Mariners in December of 2018. Less than two weeks later, the Mariners traded Santana to Cleveland — in exchange for Encarnación. Santana moved back into his old house.


    Edwin Encarnación and Carlos Santana were Cleveland teammates in 2017. After that, things got more complicated. (Duane Burleson / Getty Images)

    Do not take total pity on these athletes, who play in a league where the big-league minimum salary is $740,000. Teams provide them resources, recommendations and real estate agents. Their own agents often do the same. The collective bargaining agreement contains provisions that compensate them for their living expenses if they are cut or traded. 

    Their privilege still contains complications, and not every serendipitous swap ends happily. In the summer of 2005, the Boston Red Sox acquired an infielder named Alex Cora from Cleveland in exchange for fellow infielder Ramón Vázquez. The two Puerto Ricans were friends. They agreed to trade houses. “The price was the same,” Cora said. He had been living in a four-bedroom, two-story place with a yard. He was aghast when he moved into Vázquez’s apartment near Faneuil Hall. “It was a one-bedroom, a f—ing matchbox,” Cora said. 

    The dollar does stretch further away from the coasts. Ferguson, the Yankees reliever, grew up about 20 minutes outside of Columbus, Ohio, the home of Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate. He harbors dreams of renting his home there to one of the Clippers. He joked about his willingness to pay the utilities for potential tenants as long as they paid his mortgage. “I don’t want to make money off of you — I just want to stop losing it,” Ferguson said. 

    Rich Hill stumbled into his role as the landlord of the Dodgers. During the 2021 season, Hill heard Barnes was commuting about two hours roundtrip to the ballpark. Barnes and his wife, Nicole, had a newborn son. The driving was draining. Hill mentioned that his place in Toluca Lake was empty. “It’s a really nice house,” Barnes said. “He just let us live there.” 

    Barnes had better luck than Roberts, who found the house occupied when he asked Hill about renting it. Hernández met the same fate after signing his new deal with the Dodgers. Hill was already renting to a family for 2024. Turns out, non-ballplayers need houses, too. 

    “As much as I want to rent it to the guys,” Hill said, “I can’t kick the people out who are there right now.”

    (The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, Chad Jennings, Zack Meisel, C. Trent Rosecrans and Sahadev Sharma contributed to this report.)

    (Illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of Kiké Hernández: Michael Zagaris / Oakland Athletics / Getty Images; Photo of Rich Hill: Will Newton / Getty Images; Photo of Wade Miley: Frank Jansky / Icon Sportswire )

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  • Rosenthal: Mookie Betts’ latest goal? Become ‘a legend in the game’

    Rosenthal: Mookie Betts’ latest goal? Become ‘a legend in the game’

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    GLENDALE, Ariz. — Mookie Betts keeps upping the ante. He talked last season about wanting to become a Hall of Famer. His latest goal: To become, in his words, “a legend in the game.”

    Betts, 31, made that declaration in an interview I conducted with him Tuesday for Fox Sports. I asked him, after winning two World Series and an MVP award, what keeps him going at this stage of his career. What motivates him. What fuels him.

    “My family, obviously,” said Betts, who is married with two children. “But then just a drive within myself just to be great. I want to be great. When I’m done, I want you to remember not necessarily just the baseball player, but Mookie. I want to be a legend in the game.

    “How I create that, I have no idea. I’m just kind of going about it and bringing smiles to people’s faces when I can, trying to sign some autographs when I can, be the best player I can be when I’m playing, be the best teammate I can be.

    “Whatever comes my way, I’m just going to try and be the best at it no matter what. If it’s sitting on the bench, I want to be the best cheerleader. Whatever it is. I think if I can do that, I feel like that will create some type of legacy that I can leave. You won’t remember all the on-field stuff, but I want people to remember who Mookie was off the field for sure.”

    Major leaguers rarely speak this way. Until recently, the sport’s culture discouraged individualism of any kind. Freedom of expression is becoming more accepted, as evidenced by the league’s “Let the Kids Play” promotional campaign in 2019. But even now, few players openly discuss individual goals, preferring to focus only on the team.

    Betts, to be sure, is intent on his Los Angeles Dodgers winning the World Series, something they did in the shortened 2020 season, but haven’t accomplished in a full season since 1988. Coming off the team’s $1 billion offseason, which included the additions of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he spoke of a “sense of urgency” this spring.

    “We’ve been to the playoffs so many times and haven’t come through,” Betts said, referring to the team’s 11 straight playoff appearances. “We’ve gotten one, but one for nine or ten is not very good in our sport, really in general.”


    Betts fields ground balls at Camelback Ranch earlier this month. (Rick Scuteri / USA Today)

    To become a “legend in the game,” at least from the perspective of Dodgers fans, Betts knows he must perform better in October. He was brilliant in the 2020 postseason, but went a combined 2-for-25 as the Dodgers were knocked out in the past two Division Series, first by the San Diego Padres, then by the Arizona Diamondbacks, both times after winning 100 or more regular-season games.

    Yet, when Betts mentioned his goal of becoming a legend, he was not necessarily talking about on-field performance. I asked him when he realized it was possible for him to achieve such status, and that it was something he even wanted. His answer was telling.

    “My friends really stay on me,” Betts said. “They tell me to embrace who you are. Embrace when you walk into somewhere and someone wants to come take a picture or someone gets nervous. I used to kind of shy away from it. Now when I see somebody that’s kind of shy, I go and talk to them. I go and humanize myself.

    “I’m a normal person just like everyone else, but there are some things that I do a little differently, and there are some lives that I affect a little differently, and I think I should embrace that. I’m trying. I’m doing my best. It’s weird for me, and it’s weird even saying something like that. But it really stems from my friends. They’ve been with me since I was in the fifth grade, so they’ve seen where I was then. We had no idea any of this was going to happen.”

    “This” includes his remarkable 2018 season with the Boston Red Sox, when he won the American League batting title with a .346 batting average, helped the Red Sox win the World Series and was voted AL MVP. It also includes seven All-Star appearances and six Gold Gloves, not to mention a $365 million contract, the third largest guarantee in major-league history.

    Betts’ popularity, however, stems not only from his immense all-around skills, but also from fans relating to a player who is listed at only 5-foot-9, 180 pounds. Betts is far from a behemoth. He also displays, at times, an endearing, almost childlike joy for the game.

    The Dodgers plan to use Betts mostly at second base this season — he joked to reporters recently that he left his right-field glove and cleats in Los Angeles. Last season, he moved deftly between right, second and shortstop, demonstrating rare versatility, particularly for a superstar.

    “It just felt like I was able to be a kid again,” said Betts, a native of Nashville, Tenn. “Growing up, I never played one position. I was almost like the utility guy. I had four uniforms, and whoever called and needed a right fielder or a shortstop or a second baseman or a third baseman or a first baseman, that’s kind of where we went. It’s almost weird playing just one position, especially in the outfield.”

    Wait, Betts played for four different youth teams at once?

    “Wherever they needed,” he continued, smiling. “Sometimes I would go just pitch, and sometimes I would go play left. It didn’t matter. My dad, I appreciate that from him because I think that really taught me how to be a baseball player instead of just playing one position the whole time.”

    For Betts, it was the start of something big, a major-league career that is about to enter its 11th season. The Hall of Fame seems well within his reach, and still he wants more. To win another World Series. To be admired on and off the field. To become — yes, he said it — a legend in the game.

    (Top photo of Mookie Betts: Masterpress / Getty Images)

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  • Which teams, front offices and managers are feeling the most pressure? Insiders weigh in

    Which teams, front offices and managers are feeling the most pressure? Insiders weigh in

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    As the February sunshine beams down on all of baseball, and the standings say that everyone is undefeated, it’s easy to melt into a zen state of spring training nirvana. But there’s one question in our annual spring survey that jolts us back to life. That’s the part where we ask our voters — a panel of 31 executives, former executives, coaches and scouts — which teams, front offices and managers are feeling the most pressure. As always, they had some thoughts!

    BRIAN CASHMAN, AARON BOONE AND THE YANKEES (16 VOTES): Does it sometimes feel as though Brian Cashman has been the general manager of the Yankees since the days of Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford? In truth, it’s only been 26 years. But in the last 14 of them, the Yankees forgot to do that thing they’ve done more than any franchise ever: Win the World Series. So if this vote reveals anything, it’s that Cashman and his manager, Aaron Boone, might want to re-route the path to the Canyon of Heroes, because their job security might depend on it. … “I love Cash,” said one National League exec. “He’s been there longer than anybody. But that team is going to have to make a statement.”

    OLIVER MARMOL AND THE CARDINALS (12 VOTES): The good news for the Cardinals: Our voters had mostly good things to say about an offseason in which they added Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson to their rotation — and added depth to their bullpen with Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton. … The bad news for the Cardinals: Their entire rotation might be 33 or older — and we heard lots of concern about their manager, Oli Marmol, and his ability to navigate this vessel’s storms. … “They’d be at the top of my list of teams most likely to make a change (of manager),” said a rival NL exec. “I’d just say this: Don’t go to sleep on the job Yadi (Molina) did managing (Puerto Rico) in the Caribbean Series.”

    A.J. PRELLER/ PADRES FRONT OFFICE (10 VOTES): Last year, in this very same space, one rival exec made a bold prediction: If the Padres didn’t win their division, in a season when the Dodgers were in such an obvious retooling mode, “it will be head-rolling time.” Well … maybe not. The Padres revved up the payroll to $255 million, loaded up the lineup and still finished 18 games back of the Dodgers. Yet even after that debris settled, Preller’s head hadn’t rolled anywhere. But now the stakes seem even higher. The Padres missed that window to run down the Dodgers … beloved owner Peter Seidler lost his battle with cancer … they’re slashing payroll by nearly $100 million … and Juan Soto is 3,000 miles from the Gaslamp Quarter. So our voters sent a message that it’s time for Preller to get verrryyy nervous. … “They spent all that money,” said one American League exec. “And what do they have to show for it?”

    GO DEEPER

    Bowden: 5 MLB managers on the hot seat to start the 2024 season

    Four other teams feeling the heat


    Pressure? Dave Roberts is looking calm, cool and collected this spring. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)

    They didn’t make it to the medal stand. But these four teams also got the attention of a bunch of voters.

    DAVE ROBERTS/DODGERS (FIVE VOTES): When your team shells out more than a billion dollars on free agents, does the manager have to win? Five voters recommend that highly for Dave Roberts in Chavez Ravine. One voter’s take:

    “They need to go to the World Series or they may make a change.”

    FARHAN ZAIDI/GIANTS (FOUR VOTES): Are the Giants starting to feel like your buddy the fisherman, who can’t stop telling you about the size of all the big fish he didn’t reel in? Seems like it sometimes, every time another free-agent luminary wriggles out of their net.

    So there were definite questions about whether this team’s lack of star power could catch up with its president of baseball ops, Farhan Zaidi.

    PERRY MINASIAN/ANGELS (FOUR VOTES): It’s hard to see how it’s fair to pin the Angels’ troubles on their GM, Perry Minasian, considering all the dysfunction flowing from the owner’s box. But four voters thought Minasian could pay the price anyway.

    JOHN SCHNEIDER/BLUE JAYS LEADERSHIP (FOUR VOTES): And finally, there are the Blue Jays. The good news is, they’ve made the playoffs under their eminently likable manager, John Schneider, two years in a row. The bad news is, they got bounced twice without winning a game.

    The good news is, they were in hot pursuit of both Shohei Ohtani and Soto over the winter. The bad news is, their whole offseason turned into a massive swing-and-miss.

    So the pressure is real. And our voters were divided on who’s squirming most — Schneider or this front office. But if a frustrating winter leads to a frustrating summer, we might find out.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    2024 spring training survey: MLB insiders on the players, teams and stories to watch

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    MLB insiders predict the 5 players most likely to get traded this spring

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    What we learned from MLB’s schedule changes last year and what to watch for this season

    (Photo of Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman: William Perlman / Newsday RM via Getty Images)

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  • Previewing every Cactus League team as 2024 spring training begins

    Previewing every Cactus League team as 2024 spring training begins

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    It’s that time of the year again. Baseball is back and every fan wants to know what their team looks like heading into the new season. As spring training begins, the Cactus League is shaping up to field some of the most exciting teams in the league.

    Home to both 2023 World Series teams, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks, the Cactus League will already be looked at closely. But there is one team that has separated themselves from the pack.

    All eyes will be on the Los Angeles Dodgers after their offseason additions of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani and Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto pushed them into being a favorite to win the Fall Classic.

    “Obviously, the Dodgers are far and away the number one story in baseball,” says Bob Nightengale, baseball columnist for USA Today.

    The Dodgers will finish spring training in Arizona earlier than usual this season on March 13 due to a scheduled regular-season opener in Seoul, South Korea, against the San Diego Padres on March 20.

    While heavy favorites like the Dodgers will be the center of conversations around the league, Nightengale said he wouldn’t look past teams like the Diamondbacks, who enter camp with an upgraded roster since their World Series run.

    “Odds only had them winning like 84 1/2 games when they won 84 games last year. This is a better team,” Nightengale says.

    Arizona added pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez to fit in the middle of the rotation and also brought in third baseman Eugenio Suárez and designated hitter Joc Pederson to provide more power in the lineup.

    Alongside the expected contenders, some less established teams like the Cincinnati Reds will be looking to solidify themselves as a serious challenger in the National League. Led by young talents like Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene, the Reds will look to make the push into the postseason after nearly taking a wild-card spot last season.

    “I think they’ve (Cincinnati Reds) got a chance to do something special,” Nightengale said. “They got so many great young players all around that board. If I had to take a sleeper team, that would be my sleeper team.”

    Spring training is the time to get acclimated to up-and-coming prospects and new faces to the MLB, and the Cactus League has its fair share.

    From former Korean League standout Jung Hoo Lee in San Francisco to Nolan Jones fresh off his 20-homer, 20-steal season in Colorado, there are new players everywhere for fans to grow accustomed to.

    Nearly every team has something new to look forward to going into the new season, and that will certainly bring along new expectations.

    Fans from all over are going to be in for an exciting year of baseball in 2024.

    Arizona Diamondbacks

    The Arizona Diamondbacks followed their surprising World Series run by opening up the checkbook and improving the young core already in place with Corbin Carroll, Zac Gallen and Gabriel Moreno.

    The team added to the starting rotation by signing left-handed starter Eduardo Rodríguez. After some struggles at the plate from the third base and designated hitter spots last season, the Diamondbacks traded for third baseman Eugenio Suárez and signed outfielders Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk.

    While it will be tough to compete with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Diamondbacks are in prime position to improve on last year.

    The Diamondbacks are projected to finish second in the National League West, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: LHP Eduardo Rodríguez, OF Joc Pederson, 3B Eugenio Suárez, OF Randal Grichuk
    Notable departures: 3B Evan Longoria, OF Tommy Pham
    2023 record: 84-78
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 83-79

    Chicago Cubs

    The Chicago Cubs brought in former Milwaukee Brewers manager (and former Arizona Diamondback) Craig Counsell to fill in the same position after barely missing the postseason season.

    Pitching was a focus for the Cubs this offseason. The team signed left-hander Shota Imanaga from Japan to join the starting rotation led by Justin Steele after Marcus Stroman left in free agency. The team also brought in some reliable bullpen arms in Hector Neris and Yency Almonte.

    Cody Bellinger’s status as a free agent still leaves some questions about if the Cubs want to bring him back to the lineup, but only time will tell if they have him back.

    The Cubs are projected to finish second in the National League Central, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: LHP Shota Imanaga, RHP Hector Neris, RHP Yency Almonte
    Notable departures: RHP Marcus Stroman, OF Cody Bellinger, 3B Jeimer Candelario
    2023 record: 83-79
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 81-81

    Chicago White Sox

    After a down year last season, the White Sox lost many key pieces this offseason.

    The acquisition of outfielder Dominic Fletcher gives the White Sox a young player who has shown he can find some success in the MLB, albeit a small sample size. Fletcher had a .301 batting average and .791 OPS in 28 games with the Diamondbacks last season.

    The losses of Liam Hendriks, Mike Clevinger and Aaron Bummer will present a challenge for the White Sox pitching department to find ways to make up for their production.

    The team is projected to finish last in the American League Central, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: OF Dominic Fletcher, C Martín Maldonado, SS Paul DeJong, RHP Mike Soroka, 2B Nicky Lopez, RHP Erick Fedde
    Notable departures: RHP Liam Hendriks, C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Mike Clevinger, SS Tim Anderson, LHP Aaron Bummer
    2023 record: 61-101
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 68-94

    Cincinnati Reds

    The Reds just missed the postseason last year, but come back to this season with the majority of that 2023 team intact. The Reds are a young team that came onto the scene last year with names like Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer.

    The signings of Nick Martinez and Frankie Montas add to the starting rotation, and the bullpen added Buck Farmer and Emilio Pagán to improve the pitching staff. The Reds had a team ERA of 4.83 last season.

    Jeimer Candelario joins a crowded infield with a large amount of young talent.

    The Reds are projected to finish tied for third in the National League Central, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: 3B Jeimer Candelario, RHP Nick Martinez, RHP Frankie Montas, RHP Buck Farmer, RHP Emilio Pagán
    Notable departures: OF Harrison Bader, 1B Joey Votto, OF Nick Senzel
    2023 record: 82-80
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 80-82

    Cleveland Guardians

    The Cleveland Guardians hired first-time manager Stephen Vogt after former manager Terry Francona stepped down after last season. He’ll have Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie to lead the starting rotation.

    McKenzie is coming off of an injury-riddled season in which he only pitched in four games so time will tell if he can bounce back to his old form. He had a 2.96 ERA in 31 games in 2022.

    The Guardians are projected to finish second in the American League Central, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: RHP Ben Lively, RHP Scott Barlow, C Austin Hedges
    Notable departures: RHP Reynaldo López, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Cal Quantrill
    2023 record: 76-86
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 80-82

    Colorado Rockies

    The Rockies struggled last year, finishing 41 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West.

    The Rockies traded for pitcher Cal Quantrill from the Cleveland Guardians to add to their pitching staff. The Rockies finished last in the MLB with a 5.67 team ERA last season and Quantrill finished with a 5.24 ERA in 19 games. Quantrill getting back to his 2022 form, in which he threw for a 3.38 ERA in 32 games, would help improve those numbers, but Coors Field is notorious for not being friendly to pitchers.

    On the offensive side, outfielder Nolan Jones emerged as a promising young player last year. Jones finished with a .297 batting average with 20 home runs and also stole 20 bases. His development will be something to keep an eye on.

    The Rockies are projected to finish last in the National League West, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Dakota Hudson
    Notable departures: RHP Chris Flexen, LHP Brent Suter
    2023 record: 59-103
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 64-98

    click to enlarge

    Despite projections placing them fourth in the American League Central, the Kansas City Royals are geared up to compete after a strategic offseason.

    Bennett Silvyn/Cronkite News

    Kansas City Royals

    After a tough season in which the Kansas City Royals lost 106 games, they used the offseason to sign veteran talent with a track record of being able to compete on winning teams.

    Starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha add experience to a young starting rotation, and Will Smith and Chris Stratton provide veteran innings out of the bullpen. Franchise cornerstone Bobby Witt Jr., who just signed an 11-year, $288.7 million extension, is coming off an impressive second season after hitting for a .276 batting average with 30 home runs and an .813 OPS.

    With all these moves, the Royals will try to compete this season. The team is projected to finish fourth in the American League Central, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: RHP Seth Lugo, RHP Michael Wacha, LHP Will Smith, RHP Chris Stratton, OF Hunter Renfroe, 2B Adam Frazier
    Notable departures: RHP Zack Greinke, RHP Dylan Coleman, RHP Taylor Clarke
    2023 record: 56-106
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 76-86

    Los Angeles Angels

    Replacing Shohei Ohtani’s production would be extremely difficult for any team, and that is something the Angels had to work around this offseason.

    The team signed outfielder Aaron Hicks to join Mike Trout. Hicks is coming off one of his more productive seasons that saw him hit .275 with an .806 OPS in 65 games with the Baltimore Orioles after being released by the New York Yankees earlier in the season.

    The Angels have long been plagued by pitching woes and they made some moves to address that. Relief pitcher Matt Moore is coming off a strong 2.56 ERA last season and he will strengthen the bullpen.

    The Angels are projected to finish fourth in the American League West, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: RHP José Cisnero, RHP Zach Plesac, OF Aaron Hicks, LHP Matt Moore, RHP Luis García, RHP Adam Cimber
    Notable departures: Shohei Ohtani, 3B Gio Urshela, OF Randal Grichuk, 3B Eduardo Escobar, SS David Fletcher
    2023 record: 73-89
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 76-86

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    The Dodgers went all-in this offseason by spending over a billion dollars in free agency – landing one of the most sought-after free agents of all time in two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

    The addition of Ohtani alongside pitchers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow propelled the Dodgers into being World Series favorites. Ohtani will not pitch this season but he will be the team’s designated hitter.

    Outfielder Teoscar Hernández was added to the already star-studded lineup as well.

    The Dodgers are going to have high expectations following them throughout the season. The team is projected to win the National League West, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: OF/P Shohei Ohtani, RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP Tyler Glasnow, OF Teoscar Hernández, LHP James Paxton
    Notable departures: DH J.D. Martinez, OF Enrique Hernández, SS Amed Rosario
    2023 record: 100-62
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 92-70

    Milwaukee Brewers

    After former Brewers manager Craig Counsell left to join their division rival, the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee gave the job to Pat Murphy, longtime bench coach for the team. That wasn’t the only offseason move, however.

    The Brewers made a surprising move to trade their ace Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles for shortstop Joey Ortiz and pitcher DL Hall. Rhys Hoskins will be a much-needed power bat for a team that finished 24th in the league with 165 home runs in 2023. Hoskins was injured all last season but was a key piece in the Philadelphia Phillies team that went to the World Series in 2022.

    The Brewers are projected to finish third in the National League Central, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: 1B Rhys Hoskins, SS Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall, LHP Wade Miley
    Notable departures: RHP Corbin Burnes, OF Mark Canha, LHP Andrew Chafin, 3B Josh Donaldson, 1B Carlos Santana
    2023 record: 92-70
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 80-82

    Oakland Athletics

    The Athletics added some veteran arms to the starting rotation and bullpen this offseason. Ross Stripling and Alex Wood might be older but they will be able to provide innings for a team that had a 5.48 ERA last season.

    While the team’s pitching may get a boost this season, there are still questions about where the offense will come from. Brent Rooker led the team last season with 30 home runs and 69 RBIs.

    The A’s have a lot of questions moving forward, including where the team will be playing in the future with the relocation issue looming large.

    The team is projected to finish last in the American League West, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Alex Wood, RHP Trevor Gott, LHP Scott Alexander
    Notable departures: RHP Trevor May, OF Tony Kemp
    2023 record: 50-112
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 72-90

    San Diego Padres

    The Padres are coming into the year with a much different roster than last season.

    Fortunately for the Padres, the holes left from the losses of Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and Josh Hader were somewhat filled when the Padres traded Juan Soto to the New York Yankees. Michael King should be able to be a serviceable starter. Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez may also be able to be a part of the rotation, as well. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish will still be the main pieces in the rotation.

    The hole that Juan Soto left offensively, however, may be more difficult to fill. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts will be expected to provide a lot of offensive production.

    The Padres are projected to finish in third place in the National League West, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: LHP Wandy Peralta, RHP Michael King, RHP Randy Vásquez, RHP Jhony Brito, C Kyle Higashioka
    Notable departures: OF Juan Soto, RHP Michael Wacha, RHP Nick Martinez, RHP Seth Lugo, LHP Blake Snell, LHP Josh Hader, C Gary Sanchez
    2023 record: 82-80
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 81-81

    San Francisco Giants

    The Giants made some improvements to their offense heading into 2024, and new manager Bob Melvin will have new pieces to work with in the Giants’ pursuit of the postseason.

    The team signed slugger Jorge Soler and Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, who is known for his ability to hit the ball anywhere on the field. He had a career batting average of .340 with a career OPS of .898 in seven seasons in the Korean Baseball League. At the very least, he will provide some excitement.

    Recently acquired Robbie Ray will miss some of the season due to recovery from an elbow injury, but he should be a solid piece in the rotation upon his return.

    The Giants are projected to finish fourth in the National League West, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: OF Jorge Soler, OF Jung Hoo Lee, LHP Robbie Ray, RHP Jordan Hicks
    Notable departures: LHP Sean Manaea, LHP Alex Wood, RHP Ross Stripling, OF Joc Pederson, SS Brandon Crawford
    2023 record: 79-83
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 80-82

    Seattle Mariners

    The Mariners were very active in the offseason, trading away players like left-hander Robbie Ray and third baseman Eugenio Suárez but bringing in infielder Jorge Polanco from the Minnesota Twins. Polanco was limited to 80 games in 2023, but when healthy can play multiple positions in the infield.

    The team brought in Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger to help replace the production from Teoscar Hernández and Jarred Kelenic.

    The key piece to this team is the starting pitching. Led by Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, the Mariners had a team ERA of 3.74 last season. Their elite starting pitching may give them a window to compete in a loaded American League.

    The Mariners are projected to finish second in the American League West, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: 2B Jorge Polanco, C Mitch Garver, OF Luke Raley, RHP Gregory Santos, OF Mitch Haniger, 3B Luis Urías
    Notable departures: LHP Robbie Ray, 3B Eugenio Suárez, OF Teoscar Hernández, RHP Dominic Leone, OF Jarred Kelenic
    2023 record: 88-74
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 85-77

    Texas Rangers

    The defending World Champions come into the spring hot off their special run and the excitement is bubbling around them.

    The Rangers will be missing pitchers Max Scherzer and Jacob DeGrom at the beginning of the season due to injury and did not re-sign Jordan Montgomery in free agency so the starting rotation is a little thin. The Rangers shored up the bullpen, however, by adding David Robertson and Kirby Yates to the mix.

    The core of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis García will still be around to lead the offense this season.

    The Rangers are projected to finish third in the American League West, according to FanGraphs.

    Notable additions: RHP David Robertson, RHP Kirby Yates, RHP Tyler Mahle
    Notable departures: LHP Jordan Montgomery, RHP Chris Stratton, LHP Will Smith, LHP Aroldis Chapman, LHP Martín Pérez, C Mitch Garver
    2023 record: 90-72
    2024 FanGraphs projected record: 82-80

    For more stories from Cronkite News, visit cronkitenews.azpbs.org.

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  • Top 100 MLB prospects 2024: Keith Law’s rankings, with Jackson Holliday at No. 1

    Top 100 MLB prospects 2024: Keith Law’s rankings, with Jackson Holliday at No. 1

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    Welcome to this year’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. I’ve been compiling and writing such rankings for 17 years now, and those of you who’ve read them before will find the format here similar to those from the recent past. My farm reports covering at least 20 prospects in each team’s system, and notes on prospects who might appear in the majors this year, or who might be breakout prospects for the 2025 rankings, will appear starting the week of Feb. 12.

    This year’s list has more players from the most recent draft than any top-100 I’ve ever done (I think), with 20 percent of the list — that’s 20 players, if you’re struggling to do the math here — on this list being 2023 draftees. That’s a combination of what might be the best draft class of my career since I left the Blue Jays and a high degree of turnover from the 2023 top-100 list. We had a ton of graduations from last year’s list: seven of the top 10, plus 25 more from the rest of the list. And we had a few face-plants, too, including one guy who went from the top 10 last year to completely off the list this year, although, in my defense, he had it coming. Five others fell off the list due to injury or illness that either impacted their long-term outlook or hurt their performance so much that they were simply passed by other, healthy players.

    To be eligible for this list, a player must still retain Rookie of the Year eligibility for 2024, and have no experience in NPB/KBO, as those are major leagues and calling, say, Yoshinobu Yamamoto a “prospect” is pretty silly (not to mention it takes up the space I’d rather use on an actual prospect). I also don’t include the international free agents who just signed in January, since in nearly all cases those guys haven’t been scouted by other teams in a year or more.

    I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn’t as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won’t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures.

    I use “seasonal age” for players (listed as “Age” on the player bios below), which is their age on July 1, 2024, the midpoint of the calendar. I use the 20-80 scale for tools (or 2-8 — same scale, different dialect), where 50 is average, 60 is plus, 40 is well below average, 80 is Ke’Bryan Hayes’ defense, and 20 is Yasmani Grandal’s foot speed. I try to discuss players’ tools, their frames, their level of athleticism and other physical attributes, as well as their skills, their aptitude, and other mental or intellectual attributes as well. This is comparable to how major-league teams evaluate players, although they will always have the advantage of access to more and better data than those of us on the outside can get. The least I can do is try to reflect how the industry thinks about players, and give you the most accurate possible picture of the prospects in these rankings through both the lens of my own evaluations and those of the people within the industry whom I most trust.

    When referring to starters, I acknowledge that that role is still evolving and we don’t have 200-inning guys anymore, with a lot of “five-and-dive” (throw five innings and hit the showers) or twice-through-the-order guys, but I will still talk about league-average starters and sometimes refer to back-end (fourth or fifth) starters or above-average (ace, No. 2, and some No. 3) starters. Bear in mind that there is a range around any projection or prediction for a player — if I say I think someone’s a No. 4 starter, he might have a ceiling as a No. 3 or more, and the floor of a middle reliever or a bulk reliever, where the No. 4 starter projection is the most likely or median outcome I see.

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    2023 Ranking: 19

    Holliday went from “maybe he’s a first-rounder” in the fall of 2021, his senior year of high school, to “oh my God he’s the best prospect in baseball” by May of 2023, an unbelievable rise — you could say meteoric, but I prefer to avoid such clichés — that’s a testament to both his natural talent and his incredible feel for the game. He played at all four full-season levels of the minors in 2023, dominating the first three before a solid stint at Triple-A Norfolk to end the year, with a composite line of .323/.442/.499 on the season and 101 walks against 118 strikeouts. He has exceptional hand-eye coordination, so even when he’s fooled by a pitch he often manages to make contact with it, even hard contact. I do think major-league pitchers will force him to shorten up his swing sometimes, as he nearly always swings full bore and no one has given him any reason to do otherwise. He’s a 50/55 runner, likely to end up average once he fills out, a process that will begin as soon as he starts shaving every day. Holliday is a natural shortstop whose position wouldn’t be in doubt if the Orioles didn’t already have an incumbent there — and Holliday is a better defender than Gunnar Henderson at short — but he’s moved around the infield a little and could come up at third or second if Baltimore doesn’t want to dislodge the AL Rookie of the Year. He reminds me in several ways of Troy Tulowitzki, but has the advantage of the left-handed bat and has a better feel for the strike zone. I think he’ll hit .280-.300 with strong walk rates and 25+ homers a year to go with above-average defense at shortstop, and that’s a profile that can win an MVP award.

    2023 Ranking: 3

    Chourio came into the year as my No. 3 prospect, behind the two eventual Rookie of the Year winners, but then got off to a slow start when the Brewers started him in Double-A Biloxi despite just 31 games in High A and six in Double A the year before. Whether he was pressing or just adjusting to the tougher level, when the sun rose on June 1, Chourio was hitting .254/.308/.418 and had punched out in a quarter of his plate appearances. The rest of the season, he hit .297/.353/.492 with a 15 percent strikeout rate and spent the final week with Triple-A Nashville. That week went pretty well, as Chourio put 21 balls in play, eight of them with exit velocities of 100 mph or better, peaking at 107.2 mph, and just five below 91 mph. Chourio still finished fifth in the Double-A Southern League in steals and tied for fourth in homers, and has barely begun to fill out physically, getting to that power and hard contact with strong wrists and incredible bat speed. It’s a simple swing with just enough loft in that follow-through for line-drive power, and he projects to hit for high averages as well. He’s a plus runner and at least a 60 defender in center already, likely to end up more. You can make a case for him over Holliday, as Chourio also plays a position up the middle, offers plus defense, has more speed, and is overall a twitchier, more athletic player. I think Holliday has the higher floor, between his position and better feel right now for the strike zone, but, as with the top-two prospects Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll last year, I think both of these guys are superstars.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Salas signed last January when he was 16, was catching Joe Musgrove in a simulated game in spring training in March. He debuted in Low A on May 30, just two days before he turned 17, which, among other things, makes him the first player I’ve ever scouted who was younger than my daughter is. (This is extremely important information, to me, at least.) Salas went off in 48 games in the California League, hitting .267/.350/.487, so the Padres promoted him to High A for nine games, then to Double A to be with the bulk of their prospects for a playoff push for nine more games, after which a minor knee injury ended his season. Salas was born in Kissimmee, Fla., and is the younger brother of Twins farmhand Jose Salas, but spent parts of his childhood in the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, so he’s bilingual and very advanced for his age on both sides of the ball. He’s a smooth catcher who has game-calling experience and is comfortable catching premium velocity already, with a plus arm and quick release, as well. At the plate, he’s surprisingly short to the ball for a 6-foot-2 hitter with easy power already. He has enough pitch recognition that he has an idea of when to reach back a little for a harder but longer swing. Catching’s tough on the body and mind, with prospects behind the dish essentially doing a double major, learning all of the skills for a backstop (receiving, blocking, framing, throwing, game-calling, being nice to umps) while also developing as a hitter. Salas is as advanced at the first major, being a catcher, as any 17 year old I can remember seeing, and he seems to be ready to at least survive in Double A as a hitter already. It’s a potential bat that would play at first base attached to a catcher who might be plus in every meaningful aspect of the position. If he keeps hitting, Krylon might put him in their commercials.

    2023 Ranking: 9

    Lawlar was the sixth pick in the 2021 draft out of a Dallas high school, but injured his shoulder on a swing — the same injury that befell Corbin Carroll before him and Druw Jones afterward, so I hope Tommy Troy has insurance — and played just two games after signing. Even without a real first summer, he’s raced up to the majors in two seasons, reaching Triple A just a few weeks after he turned 21. He’s got great instincts on both sides of the ball and has now improved his footwork and his throwing to the point where he might be a 55 defender at short, and no worse than average. On offense, he’ll show plus bat speed and should get to 15-20 homer power at his peak, although the 20 homers he hit last year were inflated by playing in two insane hitters’ parks in Amarillo and Reno. When he’s right, he’s very short to the ball but still makes solid contact because of that bat speed and wrist strength, with a swing path that will produce more low line drives than big flies. He’s an easy plus runner who’s a real base-stealing threat, with an 87 percent success rate in the minors. My one concern is that he can come out of his swing at times, lunging and over-rotating to try to force power that isn’t there, which can lead to whiffs or just poor contact, like topping the ball right into the ground. As long as he stays back and sticks to what’s worked so well for him, he should be a star somewhere on the infield, even if he moves off short for a superior defender.

    2023 Ranking: 99

    Acquired by the Rays in a trade that Guardians fans would prefer I never mention again, Caminero started 2023 in High A and finished it in the majors while getting regular at bats for a playoff team — and smoking the ball, too. Caminero’s a tremendous hitter, combining feel for the barrel, balance, and brute strength to produce a ton of hard contact, peaking at 112 mph in his brief stint in the majors. His swing is simple but still powerful between that upper body strength and his rapid hand acceleration, while he doesn’t chase much and doesn’t miss many pitches in the zone, with some vulnerability to breaking stuff down and away that’s typical for a lot of young hitters. Caminero has primarily played third base in the minors and worked himself into an average glove there, with some experience at short, second, and even first, although that last position shouldn’t be necessary given how much progress he’s made at the hot corner. He hit 31 homers in total last year in 117 games across three levels, and this kind of hard-contact skill and feel to hit should produce that kind of 30+ homer power in the majors too, with .300ish averages in the best outcomes, enough for him to be the impact bat the Rays have needed for ages.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Few draft players have had debuts as good as Langford’s, as he played at four levels last season, hitting .360/.480/.677 in 200 professional PA, and ended the year in Triple A, where he reached base 14 times in 26 trips to the plate. Langford was my preseason No. 1 prospect for the 2023 draft and was No. 2 on draft day after a ruptured testicle took him out for about two weeks in the spring, preventing him from answering scouts’ questions about his outfield defense. He’s an electric offensive player, a 70 runner underway who boasts a smooth, powerful right-handed swing where he stays very steady through contact, rotating his hips on time to transfer his weight without becoming unbalanced, putting the ball in the air with a lot of juice. He’s fast enough for center but played left in Florida, in part because they had a plus defender in center but more because Langford has yet to show even solid instincts in the outfield. That said, if what he did in a modest sample in pro ball is any indication, he could play sixth base or top field or anywhere else and still be an impact player, because he looks like he is really going to hit and put 25-30 balls in the seats, too.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Crews was already on scouts’ radar as a high school junior for his advanced hit tool and potential for power, but a rough start to his senior year followed by a global pandemic that ended the 2020 season and cut the draft short. Well, he ended up at LSU, and things worked out just fine, as he mashed for three years as a Tiger and ended up the second pick in the 2023 draft. Crews can really hit, going .426/.567/.713 last spring for LSU, then hitting .355/.423/.645 in 14 games in Low A after he signed, although an aggressive two-level promotion to Double A finally slowed him down. His swing is really simple and when he’s on time, it’s short and direct and the contact is loud. He’s an average to a tick above-average runner, but so far he’s looked very good in centerfield thanks to great reads, although he may end up pushed to a corner by a superior defender once he’s in the majors. When he was playing with Double-A Harrisburg, pitchers were able to mess with his timing by changing speeds, even getting him to cut through some fastballs in the upper half of the zone, so there are some adjustments for him to make before he races to the majors. It might slow his progress by a few weeks, but his ceiling as a hitter who’s among the league leaders in all three triple-slash categories while playing up the middle or playing plus defense in a corner is still there.

    2023 Ranking: 11

    Mayer was the fourth pick in the 2021 draft and No. 1 on my final draft board that year. His 2023 season didn’t go according to plan, as Boston’s top prospect hurt his shoulder in May, eventually going on the injured list for the impingement in early August, ending his season. When healthy, Mayer has a beautiful left-handed swing and projects to plus power in his peak years, with plenty of loft in his finish to put the ball over the fence, but he hasn’t been healthy all that often in his two full years in the minors, dealing with some wrist soreness in 2022, as well. He’s got the athleticism and first-step movement to be a plus defender at short, showing the ability to make difficult or distant plays, and needs to work more on consistency to become a 60 or better in the field. He’s a below-average runner and not likely to be a base-stealing threat in the majors. Mayer’s shoulder was already hurt when he got to Double A last year, so his dismal line there (.189/.254/.355, 26 percent K rate) is probably just noise. He needs a full season on the field now to show the huge upside that made him Boston’s first pick in 2021.

    2023 Ranking: 53

    Carter’s ascent to the majors over the last two years rivals that of anyone other than perhaps Junior Caminero’s, and in some ways is more stunning given that Carter started the 2022 season with just 32 games played beyond high school. The Rangers’ second-round pick in 2020, much-maligned in these quarters as area scouts questioned his contact skills in high school, Carter has shown outstanding plate discipline at every level, including the majors, and the ability to manage an at bat like a major-league veteran. He’s a plus defender and runner who might end up with a 6 hit tool as well, which would make him an All-Star if so. There are some beige flags here; he’s never hit left-handed pitching in the minors or majors, his swing probably isn’t going to produce more than average pull power, and he’s shown more propensity to chase now that he’s facing better quality pitching. Brandon Nimmo didn’t hit lefties much at all until he was 25 or 26, and he’s already produced 21 WAR and made himself a ton of money, so the platoon split issue is far from fatal. Carter’s got a very high floor — the worst-case scenario would appear to be that he’s a high-average/OBP platoon outfielder with plus defense — with the ceiling of a star if he hits southpaws better and gets toward 20-ish homers a year.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Skenes was the first pick in last year’s draft, coming off a spring where he was nearly unhittable as the Friday night starter for the eventual national champion LSU Tigers, punching out 45 percent of batters he faced and pitching regularly at 96-102 mph with a wipeout slider. He’s a pitcher of unusual size, already 6-6 and probably 260 lbs or so, and hides the ball extremely well behind his body thanks to a compact arm action, allowing him to get away with some iffy fastball command and below-average life on the pitch. He offers ace ceiling, with size and arm strength you can’t teach, but has several adjustments to make to get there, including ramping up use of a changeup he never bothered to use in college (why would he do hitters the favor) and working on a two-seamer so hitters don’t cheat and sit on the straight four-seamer instead. His command is probably a 45 or so, although he throws the fastball for strikes enough that I’d be surprised if walks were an issue before he reaches Triple A, where they use the automated ball-strike system (ABS). He’ll need to take a few more steps forward to give the Pirates a real top-of-the-rotation solution, but Pirates fans can take heart in Skenes’ track record of improvements, as he went from a two-way player with an above-average fastball at Air Force in 2022 to the dominant starter we saw last spring at LSU. Look for him to reach Pittsburgh at some point this summer.

    2023 Ranking: 12

    The top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, Harrison had a rough go in his Triple-A debut last year, walking 16.3 percent of hitters — at least some of which was likely attributable to the automated ball-strike system that’s used in some Triple-A games — and missing a month with a hamstring injury, but he showed much better in his seven major-league starts, including throwing a lot more strikes than expected. Harrison comes from a low three-quarters arm slot that makes him very tough on left-handed hitters, working 92-97 mph with hard running life, along with a hard slurve that mostly breaks downward and a changeup that’s potentially plus and has good separation from the fastball. It’s not an easy delivery to repeat, so his command will probably always be a question, but the improved control in the majors was a great sign, and his sudden trouble with the longball (eight homers allowed in 34 2/3 major-league innings, four of them in a single start) seems fluky with three coming from left-handed batters. Everyone wants to make pitchers who throw like Harrison into Chris Sale, but I think that’s unfair to both guys; the White Sox gave Sale a new grip that turned his slider into a 70, while Harrison may end up relying much more on the fastball/changeup and saving his breaker for left-on-left crime. Regardless of how he puts it together, he looks like a No. 2 starter and has that ace upside if the command takes a leap or he can tighten up the slurve.

    2023 Ranking: 45

    Quero spent the entire 2023 season in Double A at age 20, the youngest catcher to get even 300 PA at either of the top two levels of the minors. He showed big progress across the board, including a massive improvement in his conditioning from 2022 to 2023. He’s in way better shape now to handle a full season of work behind the plate, so while he always had the hands and arm for the position, he’s a lot more consistent and could end up a 60 defender there all around. At the plate, he’s got great feel for the barrel, with a swing that’s short to the ball and long through contact, with future 20-homer seasons a possibility when he’s in his mid-20s. He can swing too hard at times but gets away with it because he has such good barrel control within the zone. He did have a reverse platoon split last year, struggling especially when lefties threw him changeups, while right-handers would attack him with spin down and away that he’s still learning to lay off. Other than running, he’s got the potential for above-average or better tools across the board, and he’s already advanced as a catcher for his age. The Brewers don’t need a catcher now, just like they don’t need a center fielder, but they have a future two-way star here in Quero.

    2023 Ranking: 22

    This is Rocchio’s fourth year on my top-100, and I presume his final one, as he debuted in the majors last year and the Guardians appear to have cleared the path for him to be their opening-day shortstop. Rocchio’s outstanding feel for the game was evident even when he signed at 16, while he’s developed into a plus defender at shortstop and improved his pitch recognition and swing decisions as he’s moved up the chain. He’s a true switch-hitter who hits from both sides of the plate, and he’s become extremely difficult to strike out, ranking in the top 4 percent of all full-season players (minimum 400 PA) last year in contact rate. He’s shown power in the past, with 33 homers in 2021-22 combined, and hits the ball hard for a smaller hitter, with top-end exit velocities higher than Alex Bregman’s were at ages 22-23, although I’d project a more conservative 15-18 homers a year for Rocchio. It’s plus defense, potentially elite plate discipline, quality contact already, and a track record of consistent improvements. Cleveland’s trade of Francisco Lindor should hurt a bit less now that his successor is here.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Clark could have been the first pick in many drafts, but the 2023 draft was loaded at the top, so Clark ended up going third to the Tigers. He’s an actual five-tool prospect, by which I mean he is or projects to be above-average or better in all five tools — hit, power, run, field, throw — not just a great prospect who gets called “five tool” because it sounds good. He’s a 70 runner who plays easy plus defense in center with a strong enough arm for right, and he’s got a pretty yet powerful left-handed swing that gets to plus power already. He starts with a wide base at the plate with just enough room left for a small step forward without much weight transfer, then starts his hands extremely quickly to generate that plus power. The only question about his tools is how good a hitter he is today, as he didn’t face any decent pitching among Indiana high schools; his pro debut included a lot of contact even when he was clearly gassed playing in Low A in September. He’s already strong for his age and size and doesn’t offer a ton of projection, but also doesn’t need it to profile as an above-average regular or better — a 30/30 guy who plays plus defense in center and at least has OBPs in the upper .300s.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Jenkins was the fifth pick last year and part of the quintet of prospects who could have gone first overall in a typical draft, so the Twins picked the right year to select fifth in the draft. Jenkins earns a lot of comparisons to Larry Walker for his size, athleticism, and sweet left-handed swing, leading to hopes he can be another power-hitting right fielder with strong on-base skills and some speed as well. It’s about as textbook a swing as you’ll see, with elite bat speed and great hip rotation for hard contact and what should end up as 25-30 homer power, if not more. He had zero issues in pro ball with contact or plate discipline, although he didn’t show much of the power, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he took a year or two to grow into that part of his game. He played center in every game when he played the field except for one in right, but given his size I think he’s going to end up in a corner, just like his namesake. It may not be a straight line to stardom but I believe Jenkins’ swing and bat speed will carry him for now while we wait for the power to arrive.

    2023 Ranking: 46

    Winn reached the majors last year at age 21 and just barely still qualifies for this list — one more day on the roster or nine more at bats would have cost him his ROY eligibility for 2024. He’s an elite defender at short with an 80 arm, registering 100.5 mph on a throw at the 2022 Futures Game that set a new Statcast record for velocity for a throw by any infielder. He has outstanding plate discipline for his age, across all dimensions of that term — his pitch selection, his pitch type recognition, and his ball/strike recognition are all above-average or better for someone who’s been young for every level he’s played at in pro ball. He’s also a 70 runner with an 88.4 percent success rate on 104 stolen base attempts in the minors. And he has outstanding bat speed on top of that, rarely missing even plus fastballs, although in his case his bat may be in and out of the zone too quickly for it to translate as plus power or even high exit velocities. That adds up to a pretty high floor: plus defense, high contact rates, solid to plus on-base percentages, added value on the bases, and you hope a little power. Unless his approach completely collapses in the majors, which I have a hard time imagining, he’ll be at least an average regular at short for a long time. The Cards appear to have cleared the way for him to win the job out of spring training, and I don’t think there’s any real benefit to sending him back to Triple A at this point anyway. Just let his defense carry him while he adjusts to big-league pitching and enjoy the show.

    2023 Ranking: 49

    Marte has always hit even though he’s been young for the level everywhere he’s played, reaching the majors last year at age 21 and hitting .316/.366/.456 in his cup of coffee with just a 20.3 percent strikeout rate and a peak exit velocity over 115 mph. Acquired in the big swap that sent Luis Castillo to Seattle for four players, Marte had fallen out of favor with the Mariners because he’d gotten so big there was — and still is — some question over whether he’ll stay on the dirt, and I think there is no real shot for him to stay at shortstop. To his credit, he’s maintained some of his athleticism and speed even as he’s filled out so quickly, and while he probably won’t be a rangy third baseman he should make all of the necessary plays to be at least average there. His bat isn’t a big question, as he has great instincts at the plate and uses the whole field well, with power from his pull side all the way over to right-center. Playing half his games in Cincinnati should get him to 20-25 homers a year, if not more. His ultimate offensive ceiling depends on his approach, which right now is appropriately aggressive — he doesn’t whiff much or walk much, but chases a little too often right now to project as a star at his peak, with more of a .280/.330/.500 sort of ceiling. That’s a very good regular who makes some All-Star teams, with the chance to become something more if he makes better swing decisions even independent of just walking more. He’s ready for a major-league job right now, and the Reds have one to give him at third; if he wins it, he’s a contender for Rookie of the Year.

    2023 Ranking: 26

    Crow-Armstrong hadn’t played above A-ball coming into 2023, but hit a combined .283/.365/.511 between Double A and Triple A to reach the majors in September, where then Cubs manager David Ross played him only when both of Earth’s moons were in Sagittarius, possibly contributing to the fact that Crow-Armstrong still has yet to get his first major-league hit. He’ll get that and more this year, as he should spend the season as the Cubs’ center fielder, providing plus defense and I hope some strong on-base skills. Crow-Armstrong might be a 70 defender in center and is certainly plus, enough to give him a high floor as a fourth outfielder in the unlikely event that his bat doesn’t pan out. One reason that might happen is that he’s come into more power than anticipated, and it’s affected his approach, as he sells out to get to that power sometimes, often cutting across the ball and slicing it to left field. He’s strong enough to hit 20 homers, as he did last year in the minors, and a good enough hitter overall to hit .300+, but he’s probably not going to be able to do both with his swing and his size. He’s better served going for contact and letting some power come naturally, in the 10-12 homer a year range, and perhaps in doing so he’ll see his walk rate and thus his OBP creep back up. After a tough, if very brief, stint in the majors, Crow-Armstrong has a little more reason to find that offensive middle ground, and added to the value he’ll provide on defense he could be a 5 WAR player for several years through his peak.

    2023 Ranking: 16

    Wood has turned out to be the jewel in the trade that sent Juan Soto to San Diego. Wood has shown several elite tools already and reached Double A last year at age 20, but also carries some real risks related primarily to the strike zone. Wood is an outstanding athlete with 70 speed and 80 raw power, and if anything he’s improved his conditioning in pro ball to get even more out of his physical gifts. He can play plus defense in center and I’ve gotten occasional run times from him that grade out at 80. He started last year in High-A Wilmington, generally a tough place for power, and hit .293/.392/.580; his eight homers in 42 games ended up second on the team for the season. When the Nats bumped him to Double-A Harrisburg, which is a better home run park, the power stayed but the sheer size of his strike zone and some of his pitch recognition both led to a big jump in his strikeout rate, from 27 percent to 34 percent, with fastballs up and sliders in the lower third both becoming issues for him. He’s every bit of 6-6, maybe even 6-7 at this point, and between his height and how hard he swings, he’s going to have some whiff; the challenge for him and the Nats will be cutting it down to a manageable level so he hits enough to get to that 40-homer power and isn’t an OBP liability. My guess is there isn’t much middle ground here; the ceiling is that middle-of-the-order offense in a plus right fielder or 50/55 centerfielder, while the floor is another guy who can’t cut his K rate below 30 percent and bounces around for years as teams hope to catch lightning in a tall bottle.

    2023 Ranking: Sleeper

    The Orioles refused to participate in the annual Latin American free-agent donnybrook for more than a decade, which continues to hurt their farm system even now that they’ve jumped back in because of the lag between when those players sign (typically at age 16) and when they emerge as prospects. Basallo was one of their first big signings in that market, earning a $1.3 million bonus in 2021. He debuted in full-season ball this year, hitting so well in Low A and then High A that he even got a four-game cup of coffee with Double-A Bowie to finish the season. Basallo turned 19 in August and his bat is already very advanced, with a very short but powerful swing and what appears to be very good pitch recognition. While his offense is ahead of his defense, he does project as a catcher, with a cannon of an arm and the hands and athleticism to handle the position; the risk is that his bat might be so advanced that it’s better to move him to another position so he can get to the majors, à la Bryce Harper, Wil Myers or Paul Konerko. The Orioles also have a pretty good young catcher ahead of Basallo, which might change Basallo’s trajectory, although it isn’t relevant for the purposes of this ranking — Basallo projects as a power-hitting catcher with a strong OBP and the ability to control the running game, making him one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball.

    2023 Ranking: 32

    Domínguez reached the majors last year, just four years removed from signing for a $5.1 million bonus and more hype than any Dominican amateur player since Miguel Sanó a decade earlier, only to have his season end prematurely when he needed Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow. Before that, however, he showed why he was so highly touted, with plenty of hard contact in the majors and in Triple A, topping out around 110 mph and hammering fastballs of any velocity. He has outstanding bat speed and easy plus power, while he’s a 70 runner underway and looks like he’ll be a plus defender in center if he’s given the opportunity out there. He’s a true switch-hitter, although he’s better from the left side, with enough platoon split last year to at least bear watching. He’s improved his pitch recognition by leaps and bounds since he began his pro career in 2021, and while he reached the majors sooner than anyone expected, he wasn’t overmatched and his batted-ball data was even better than the stat line. He’ll probably miss at least the first third of the 2024 season, maybe half, based on typical recovery times for position players with TJ surgeries, and perhaps that gives the Yankees cover to let him go mash in Triple A for a month before he returns to the majors. Once he’s healthy, he offers 20/20 upside with strong batting averages as well and the potential for plus defense in center or, if he loses any throwing strength, maybe 65-70 defense in left. The hype may have died down a bit but he looks like he’s going to be a star right on schedule.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Anthony boasts one of the best-looking swings in the minors, making a number of adjustments between when the Red Sox took him in the second round in 2022 and the start of 2023, turning him into one of the game’s top offensive prospects. Those adjustments included freeing up his hands and helping him keep his lead arm looser through contact for more power, while also using his lower half more to produce harder contact — something Boston cited when promoting him out of Low A despite a mediocre stat line of .228/.376/.316 at the level. He responded by hitting .301/.422/.565 the rest of the way between High A and a 10-game stint in Double A, so, hey, sorry I doubted you guys! He struck out around 28 percent of the time after the promotion but doesn’t chase often at all until he gets to two strikes, so the approach is sound, and the power is already showing up with more to come as he fills out. He’s playing more center now and Boston is working with him to improve his routes and his first-step quickness to give him a chance to remain there, with plus defense in a corner another potential outcome if he has to move. The Red Sox previously had the Greek God of Walks; maybe soon they’ll have Roman, God of Swings.

    2023 Ranking: 20

    Otherwise known as Jackson Barrel because, well, it’s not because he likes cognac. Merrill transformed his body in the 2021-22 offseason and has spent the last two years making a ton of contact while playing excellent defense at short, working his way up to Double A before his 21st birthday. Only 14 minor-league hitters who played enough to qualify in full-season ball struck out less often than Merrill’s 12.1 percent rate last season, and he actually struck out slightly less in Double A than he had in High A — and way less than he did in 2022. He’s gotten quite a bit stronger since high school, but so far that hasn’t translated into hard contact or high BABIPs, as he was under .300 at both stops last year. Merrill’s typical swing is very short, allowing him to make contact at high rates but at a cost of some of that impact, so the Padres have worked to help him get his lower half involved more and stay back better so that he can at least start to show more pull power. If you look at the body, the swing path through contact, and the feel for the zone, you can project 20+ homers in time, especially if he can start driving the ball the other way as well as to his pull side. He’s a 55 defender at short now who’ll likely end up plus, while he’s fast enough to handle centerfield if that became an option and should have no trouble at third or second. He has a wide range of outcomes despite a high floor; at worst he’s a low-OBP utilityman who plays forever because he can put the ball in play and handle six or seven positions. If the power comes, though, he could be a shortstop with a bat that would profile in right field, hitting for average even with low walk rates and getting to that 20-25 home run upside.

    2023 Ranking: 18

    Johnson has real plate discipline and excellent feel to hit, leading the full-season minors in walk rate and finishing fifth in total walks drawn with 101. He has excellent pitch selection and developing power but some cracks in the approach and the defense that weren’t apparent before this year. Johnson cleared up the hitch he would flash in high school and his bat path is clean and lets him get to that emerging power, with 18 homers in 2023 after he hit just one in 23 games in his pro debut the year before. He doesn’t chase, a skill that was more evident after he was promoted out of the Florida State League, where the league uses automated ball-strike system for some games, which has produced higher walk rates when it’s in place. However, he’s shown more propensity to whiff in the zone, and a late load seems to be impairing his timing, so even if he picks up the pitch type he’s still showing some swing and miss. Defensively, he’s moved to second base and scouts are very mixed on whether that’s going to be a long-term solution for him, as his footwork isn’t great and he’s getting by on his incredible instincts and baseball IQ — which isn’t a bad thing, mind you, but might not keep him at the position unless his mechanics improve. His range of outcomes has widened in both directions since last offseason; he could be a high-OBP, 18-22 homer second baseman, making a lot of All-Star teams and playing for a long time, but he could also end up in left field and/or miss too much in the zone to get to the high averages and OBPs everyone foresaw in high school.

    2023 Ranking: Sleeper

    De Paula signed for just under $400,000 as an international free agent in January 2022, and he’s since shown incredible feel for the strike zone as a teenager in Low A along with some high-end exit velocities already that point to a very big OBP/power upside. Born in Brooklyn but signed out of the Dominican Republic, De Paula — who is cousins with Stephon Marbury (tastefully done) — has outstanding bat speed and really controls the zone, with both ball/strike and pitch recognition that led to walk and strikeout rates well above the Low-A average last year. The main concern with him is that he’s a well below-average runner already at age 18, and has so much projection left to his body that he might grow himself right into first base. The combination of bat speed, selectivity, present power, and big physical projection could make him among the best hitters in baseball at his peak, and if so, whether it’s at first base or in an outfield corner won’t really matter.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Shaw was No. 7 on my 2023 pre-draft rankings after a spring when he hit everything hard for the University of Maryland, barreling up balls for a .341/.445/.697 line with some of the best batted-ball data in the class. The Cubs were overjoyed when he fell to the 14th pick, and were aggressive with him after he signed, getting him to Double A in September after he hit .393/.427/.655 in his 20-game stint in High A. Shaw’s swing already puts the ball in the air on a line, in the range that maximizes power and production on contact, with an average launch angle of 26 degrees last spring. He’s also shown the ability to recognize balls and strikes and thus limit his chase rate. He played shortstop in college but struggled with some of the harder throws, so he was always expected to move to second base or maybe the outfield; the Cubs have a more critical need at third base now, so he’s likely to see a lot of time there this year as they try to see if he can provide them with a long-term solution. Wherever he plays, he seems very, very likely to hit, and to end up hitting for more game power than his raw power grades (I’d say 55) might indicate.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Mayo hits the ball really, really hard, and he also hits it pretty often, which is a great starting point for any bat-first prospect; he drew 93 walks last year between Double A and Triple A to go with 29 homers and a 24 percent strikeout rate, which I think demonstrates his floor as “just” a three true outcomes hitter already. He’s 6-5 and listed at 230 pounds, so he’s got a big strike zone and some innate length to the swing just from the size of his arms. To his credit, he’s developed his eye at the plate over the last three years, with help from the Orioles’ staff, allowing him to make better swing decisions and look more for pitches he can drive to take advantage of that natural strength. There may always be some swing and miss here, notably on breaking stuff in the zone, due to his size and his wide setup at the plate, but a team could live with it because what he does on contact is so good — he hits it hard, and in the air, and can go the other way a little bit even though his power is mostly to his pull side. He’s got a 70 arm that would allow him to play anywhere, but third base is probably an uphill battle because of his size — he’s athletic enough for it, but it’s hard for guys that tall to stay on the dirt and consistently get down for groundballs. He could certainly play first right now and I’d like to see him in right field. The left side of the Orioles’ infield is the most densely populated place in America, so a position switch might serve everyone’s needs anyway. He probably won’t add much value on defense, but won’t hurt you, and a 30-homer, 80-walks guy who posts high BABIPs because everything off the bat is 90 mph or better is an above-average regular who plays for every team.

    2023 Ranking: 29

    Alcántara was part of the return from the Yankees for Anthony Rizzo at the 2021 trade deadline. The trade came right after he turned 19, and turned him almost immediately into one of the Cubs’ top prospects despite his inexperience to that point and the amount of physical projection he still had remaining. He’s still got a fair amount of growth ahead of him, and his game overall remains inconsistent, but he has superstar-level tools and has days where he’s clearly the best player on the field. The ball flies off his bat already, with 20-25 homer power now and the potential for 35-40 when he fills out, while he’s also a plus runner who plays at least solid-average defense in center. After a rough start to last year (including a 21:1 strikeout to walk ratio in May), he hit .329/.404/.551 from June 1 onward around a stint on the injured list and a promotion to Double A for the final five games of his season. Despite his 6-6 frame and a swing that sometimes looks like it’s out of control, he’s kept his strikeout rate around 24 percent, an excellent sign for his long-term outlook given the sheer size of his strike zone. He’s not the Cubs’ No. 1 prospect because he offers so much risk, but he has 30/30 upside in the middle of the field and a lot of other ways he could develop that would still make him an above-average or better everyday player.

    2023 Ranking: 82

    Jobe missed the first half of 2023 with a back injury, but when he returned, he threw better than he had in all of 2022, throwing 64 innings across four levels, striking out 84, and walking just six batters. Jobe works at 94-98 mph with a four-pitch mix that features a plus changeup, an above-average curveball in the low 80s, and a hard but short slider at 89-92, with huge spin rates on the heater and breaking balls. I have the slower pitch as the better one now and think that if he focuses on it he can get it to plus, as it already has tight rotation and huge vertical break. His delivery has effort to it even though it’s compact, with some head-whack at release, and he whips through the delivery so quickly he might not be generating enough of that velocity from his lower half. He’s a very good athlete, however, and should be able to make some adjustments if the Tigers want to try to reduce the effort involved. It’s No. 1 starter stuff and he at least has shown the kind of control to pitch atop a rotation, as long as he can stay healthy.

    2023 Ranking: Sleeper

    Listed at just 5-6, 175, Williams had an outstanding full-season debut last year, hitting .263/.425/.451 across three levels while playing solid-ish defense at shortstop and showing plus speed on the bases. Williams has surprising power for his size, which I assume is more accurate than the claimed 5-8 when he was in high school, and hits the ball hard enough to keep his averages up and produce 10-15 homers a year. It’s a compact swing — how could it be otherwise? — that puts the ball in the air a ton, and he uses the whole field well. His shortstop defense gets mixed reviews, with some belief he’ll stay at the position, although it’s easy to imagine him sliding to second base if he can’t stay there.

    2023 Ranking: 51

    Lee was the eighth pick in the 2022 draft, a very advanced hitter who’d been on scouts’ radar as a top prospect since he was in high school. He confirmed that by going to Double A to start his first full pro season and hitting .292/.365/.476 there before an August promotion to Triple A, setting him up to reach the majors this year. He’s a switch-hitter with some effort to the swing, showing a big split last year between his production from the left side (.287/.366/.494) and right side (.231/.266/.337), with a history of high contact rates, especially on fastballs in the zone. He’s boosted his contact quality in the last year and hits a ton of line drives, as his swing finishes with enough loft to often put him in the ideal launch-angle range for line-drive contact. He’s mostly played shortstop in the minors, getting just seven starts at the hot corner last year, but his long-term position is more likely to be off shortstop — probably third base, as he has plenty of arm for the left side of the infield and soft enough hands for third. He should hit for a .280-.300 average with strong OBPs and homer totals in the teens, playing above-average or better defense at third or second base, or 45 defense at shortstop if he’s forced to stay there by injuries or other circumstances.

    2023 Ranking: 37

    Rafaela’s one of the most fascinating prospects in the minors, a 5-9 infielder/center fielder from Curaçao who hits the ball harder than you’d expect from someone his size, plays some of the best center-field defense anywhere in professional baseball, and might swing at a butterfly if it flew within 10 feet of him. He started his pro career at shortstop and third base, but he’s too inconsistent for short and ended up moving to second, where he’s plus, and center, where he might be an 80, with easy routes and at least 70 speed to cover huge tracts of land. As a hitter, he­ boasts great bat speed and can connect with a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, which worked well enough in the minors but was an area that major-league pitchers exploited during his 28-game MLB debut. He’ll probably never be much for the free pass, but if he just cuts down on the chase, he has the strength and the loft in his finish to at least hit for line-drive power — balls to the gaps that will become doubles and triples with his speed, plus probably 12-18 homers a year, although he did hit 22 last year across three levels. He’s not the sort of player I typically like with his undisciplined approach, but I think he has a chance to be the most valuable defensive outfielder in baseball, giving him a high floor and thus time to clean up the approach enough for the swing and speed to play.

    2023 Ranking: Sleeper

    A pitcher and infielder at UNC Pembroke when the Padres drafted him in the 11th round in 2021, Ryan came to the Dodgers in a trade that sent Matt Beaty to San Diego. Once in the Dodgers’ system, Ryan became a full-time pitcher. He’s taken off since then, reaching Triple A last year in his second pro season, striking out almost a quarter of the batters he faced, and throwing four pitches that all at least flash plus. He’s up to 99 mph and pitches at 94-97 with a hammer curveball, sweepy slider, and hard fading changeup, dominating right-handed batters last year while showing some platoon split, particularly in OBP (he allowed a .388 OBP to lefties last year due to a 13 percent walk rate against them). He’s a superb athlete, as you’d expect from a former middle infielder, and his body looks ready to step into a major-league rotation now. He needs reps, as he still has just 152 professional innings on his resume, and in those reps he needs to continue to work on command of all of his pitches as well as his feel for the changeup. Ryan could be a No. 2 starter, and while I don’t think he’s ready for a major-league role just yet, he’s advanced so quickly he could easily make another big leap this spring and see Chavez Ravine before September.

    2023 Ranking: 13

    I wrote last year that the only thing that could stop Painter’s march to the majors was his injury risk, which unfortunately turned out to be more true than I anticipated — I thought it was just a possibility given his age, how hard he throws, and some very minor mechanical issues, but he ended up missing the year with a torn UCL, undergoing Tommy John surgery in July that will probably keep him out until this fall. When healthy, Painter shows No. 1 starter stuff, bumping 99 mph and sitting 94-97 with a hammer to make Thor jealous in his curveball, along with an above-average changeup he hadn’t begun to use enough and a slider that’s probably an unnecessary fourth pitch right now. He comes from a high three-quarters arm slot that, combined with his 6-7 height, makes it a very uncomfortable look for hitters on both sides of the plate. He’d also shown better control in his time in A-ball than he had even as an amateur, along with the ability to separate those two breaking balls in the curve and slider and use them in different spots. There’s risk with TJ surgery, from the slight chance he loses some velocity to the somewhat greater chance that his curveball isn’t the same afterwards (Lucas Giolito and Jay Groome had this happen). If all goes well with his rehab, perhaps he can throw in instructs or — and I admit to some self-interest here — the Arizona Fall League, which would set him up to start 2025 on something approaching a regular schedule. The ace upside is still there, just with more unknowns until we see him back on a mound and at full strength.

    Photo:

    Philadelphia Phillies

    2023 Ranking: Sleeper

    Lesko was cruising towards being a top-10 pick in 2022, maybe even one of the top five, when he tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery after an electric (but, alas, injury-shortened) outing at the NHSI tournament at the USA Baseball complex in Cary, NC. Lesko had been up to 97 mph with a grade-70 changeup and a much improved curveball with incredibly high spin rates, surprising for someone who came into the spring with serious questions about whether he’d ever have a usable breaking ball. He returned in the middle of 2023 and finished the year in High A, throwing 33 innings in total to set him up for a full season of work in 2024. He had most of his stuff back, working 94-98 in short outings with that 70 changeup, while the breaking ball was inconsistent but could flash plus with big depth and that tight rotation again. His delivery has always been repeatable and he should be able to throw strikes and get to above-average command in time, although in his first year back he wasn’t close to average in either category. You can dream on him a little and see an ace because of the three pitches, one a no-doubt swing-and-miss pitch, and a delivery that works for a starter. I’d just like to see what his stuff and command look like over a fuller season in 2023 before going that far, and I’m more comfortable saying he’s a mid-rotation guy with a chance to be a No. 2 starter if he stays healthy.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Keith was the Tigers’ fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft, meaning he was their last one, and he has a good chance to end up their best player from that class — even better than No. 1 pick Spencer Torkelson. Keith has great feel for the barrel and makes a ton of hard contact, improving his typical launch angle this past year to get the ball in the air more. That allowed him to go from 11 homers in 113 games in 2021-22 to 27 homers in 126 games last season. He’s topped 110 mph already despite a short swing that you might think would limit his impact. He’s turned himself into a capable third baseman, good enough to stay there, although he could also end up at second base to minimize any concerns about the arm strength not playing at the hot corner. I don’t think it matters much; even if he’s at first base, which now looks like a real worst-case scenario, he’ll hit enough to be at least a good regular with .280-.300 averages and 25-35 homer power. He’s athletic enough to be an average defender at second base with some work, though, and that could make him an easy 5-win player.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    There’s always at least one guy from every draft who goes out for a month or so after signing and makes people ask why he wasn’t drafted higher — Dalton Rushing was that guy in 2022, Zack Gelof in 2021 — and Emerson certainly did that last summer. The 22nd pick in 2023 went 15 for 28 in a week in the ACL and then hit .302/.436/.444 in 16 games in the Cal League when he was barely 18 years old, wowing scouts with his feel to hit for such a young player from an Ohio high school. Emerson has a loose, easy left-handed swing, favoring contact over power, without a lot of work coming from his lower half yet to drive the ball — something I imagine the Mariners will work on right away — although he already makes solid-average contact quality. He’s a 45 or barely 50 runner, not likely to stay at shortstop, and split time between there and second in his few weeks in the minors. Before the draft, I said he had the upside of a “high-average, 15 to 20-homer sort of hitter at second base,” and pro scouts and analysts seem to agree with that after his pro debut, but with more confidence than I had pre-draft that he’ll get there. It’s early days, but Seattle might have a steal on their hands.

    2023 Ranking: Just missed

    Williams was Tampa’s first-round pick in 2021, but at the time there were questions about multiple aspects of his game, including his power and even his running. He’s improved in just about every way since then, changing his gait to become a plus runner, building strength to hit 42 homers over the last two years, and developing into an easy plus defender at shortstop. What he does not do, however, is make enough contact, with a 31.4 percent strikeout rate during the regular season in 2023 and then a 36.5 percent rate in the hitter-friendly (and pitching-starved) Arizona Fall League. It’s a pitch recognition issue, as he really struggles against offspeed stuff even in the zone, yet doesn’t chase pitches all that often. When he makes contact, it’s generally high quality, so he doesn’t have to make a huge adjustment to become a star, just better distinguish non-fastballs and perhaps to stop swinging so hard at them. If he played on the other end of the defensive spectrum, he wouldn’t be on the top 100. As it is, though, he’s got four tools that are 6s or better, and if the hit tool just gets to 45, he’s going to be a very good big leaguer.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Jones was the Pirates’ second-round pick in the 2020 draft, a high school pitcher with arm strength and athleticism but a long way to go as a pitcher. Their patience is paying off, as he reached Triple A last year as a four-pitch guy who looks like he’ll at least be a league-average starter with more room to grow. He’s sitting mid-90s now, touching 100 mph, with a slider that’s gone from a 40 to presently close to a 60, getting into the low 90s with high spin and some sharp downward break. He throws all four pitches for strikes, with a changeup that’s good enough to keep lefties in check. His stuff did taper off as the season progressed, not excessively but enough to mention, and he may need to work on pacing himself in the earlier part of the year to stay strong through September in the longer big-league season. He’s the most polished of Pittsburgh’s upper-level pitching prospects and the most likely to come up and help in the majors this year. Whether his ceiling extends beyond that of a mid-rotation guy may come down to his in-season durability more than anything with his stuff or approach.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Signed last January for a $3.2 million bonus, Walcott, who born in The Bahamas, spent most of his first pro season in the U.S., earning huge raves from scouts who saw him launch seven homers in 35 games in the ACL as a 17-year-old. He’s got the potential for 70 power once he fills out, depending on how the hit tool develops from here. He swings very hard, producing the hard contact you’d expect from his swing, but he also struck out 32.3 percent of the time between rookie ball and four games in Low A (he also played nine games in the Dominican Summer League). Scouts felt like he made progress even within the summer in improving his swing decisions, and he did drop his strikeout rate significantly from July (49 percent) to August (22 percent), although that’s some pretty thin slicing there. He’s an average runner and definitely not a shortstop, even though he’ll probably play there a few more years until he outgrows it, with third base the most likely position long-term. There is the potential he gets so big he just ends up in an outfield corner. He’s the second-youngest player on the top 100, after Ethan Salas, and has the risk you’d expect from a teenager with so little experience. The fact that he did as well as he did is a great sign, however, and he has the strength and power to back up the hype.

    2023 Ranking: 14

    It’s been about as quick a fall from grace as you’ll see for Jones, who was the second pick in 2022 and No. 1 on many draft boards (including my own), but who required shoulder surgery before he even got into a pro game that summer and played just 41 games in 2023, struggling through much of it. Jones is a lot like his father, Andruw Jones, playing elite defense in center and showing plus power and speed on offense, but the comparison doesn’t help the son when the dad was already playing in the World Series at this age. Jones did hit the ball hard when he played last year, but too much of it was on the ground because his swing was a mess after the surgery and an offseason of rehab during which he couldn’t swing a bat. He didn’t look right in spring training, either in his mechanics or his conditioning, stepping in the bucket and barely getting his lower half involved at all. He played just 10 games in Low A in April before hurting his quad, and then hurt his hamstring while rehabbing in June, finally returning to Low-A Visalia on Aug. 15, 118 days after his last game at the level. He hit .296/.412/.437 in the last 19 games before he ran out of season, with a 23.5 percent strikeout rate, which came in a tiny sample but is a lot more consistent with the player everyone thought he’d be coming out of high school. I heard from scouts who buried him off their 2023 looks, and I can understand why. I also don’t think it’s reasonable to give up on a player who is this talented and was so good in high school when he had 14 months of injuries and never got extended playing time to correct what he was doing wrong at the plate. I’m inclined to call it a lost year and see how he looks this spring when he’s had a proper offseason to work on his body and swing.

    2023 Ranking: 25

    Montgomery missed the first half of 2023 with an oblique strain and then a strained muscle in his mid-back, finally returning to full-season ball on July 4 and to Double A (where he’d finished the previous season) on Aug. 1. He performed well at every level but never quite looked like he did in his torrid 2022 season, when he earned some comps to Corey Seager — another big shortstop who outlasted predictions that he’d move to third, including some from yours truly. Montgomery has a great approach at the plate, walking as much as he struck out last year, but the injury seemed to limit his flexibility and impacted his swing, making him much more dead-pull and causing him to roll over a lot of pitches he might have taken the other way in 2022. The consensus on his defense has shifted for the better, and it’s probably about even-money that he stays there in the eyes of the industry, with good reads and soft hands along with plenty of arm for that side of the dirt. I’m betting that the version Montgomery we saw last year, including the tight, slow look in the Arizona Fall League, is the result of rust and continued recovery. Given the chance to reset and come back as the high-contact, all-fields hitter we saw in his first full pro season, he should resume his march to Chicago and end up their everyday solution at short or third, with 4-5 WAR upside thanks to the hit tool and position.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Crawford was the Phillies’ first-round pick in 2022 out of a Las Vegas high school; he’s the son of Carl Crawford and cousin of J.P. Crawford. He’s a long way from being a finished product, but his tools are so good that he can outplay a lot of his deficiencies. He’s a 70 runner who can really play center field, while at the plate he’s already posted high exit velocities and can show big power the other way in BP that’s starting to emerge in games. He spent most of last year with Low-A Clearwater and hit .344/.399/.478 in 69 games with 40 steals before a late-season promotion to High A. He posted those solid numbers even with a lot of inconsistency in the swing that can cause him to get on top of the ball too often. He’s still got 10-15 pounds of room to fill out, which could make him a 20-homer, 50-steal guy who plays plus or better defense in center. He might be a level-a-year guy, though, as it takes time for him to fill out.

    2023 Ranking: 95

    Black is the sort of player you love if he’s on your team and hate if he’s in the other dugout, as he plays hard all the time, and will fight for every out and every ball or strike until the game ends. Drafted 33rd in 2021 out of Wright State, Black has real plate discipline and great feel for the barrel, with a .400+ OBP at High A, Double A, and Triple A over the last two seasons. His hands are quick and he’s short to the ball and through contact, so the swing is more conducive to low line drives and some groundballs than to power. He’s a 70 runner who should be able to play center and is adequate at second, although since shoulder surgery his arm hasn’t been great and the left side of the infield might be out of reach. It’s an unusual profile for first base, but I think he can produce a .400 OBP with 10-15 homers and a ton of value on the bases, which would be enough offense for the position even without huge power, and then the only real question would be if his height holds him back. His floor is a super-utility guy who still gets 400-500 PA a year playing all over the diamond, but I’m in the camp that says he’s a starter at second, in left or — if he’s not with Milwaukee — in center, and he’ll be a favorite of hometown fans once they see how he plays.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Acuña is the younger brother of reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. and went to the Mets as part of the return for Max Scherzer this past July. He’s only 5-8 but he’s ultra-twitchy and shows 60 raw power in BP and 65-70 running speed, although in games he can show more contact than power and might need a small swing adjustment to get to more than 12-15 homers a year. His contact quality improved from 2022 to 2023, which at least sets him up to be a high doubles guy and gives him a strong floor as a regular at some position up the middle. He’s a shortstop now and projects to stay there, with the speed and lateral range to handle it or move to center field if need be. As is, he’s probably a high-average, high-doubles shortstop who steals 40-50 bags a year, although I could see him trading some contact for more power and getting to 20 jacks. Either way, he’s got an above-average regular’s ceiling and a floor that should make Mets fans feel good about the trade.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Young was Seattle’s first-round pick in 2022, going 21st out of a Pittsburgh-area high school, and was their top prospect until Colt Emerson took the field in August. Young is also a left-handed-hitting middle infielder, but it’s a different profile, as Young’s a better athlete, better runner, and has a significantly better chance to stay at shortstop in the long run. He’s got a great feel for the barrel, with a strikeout rate last season under 15 percent. There were 13 minor leaguers who had 600+ plate appearances in 2023, and Young had the lowest strikeout rate of any of them, which is especially impressive since it was his first full pro season and he even moved up to High A after the All-Star break. He’s got a fairly simple swing and plenty of bat speed, although without a lot of loft in his finish he might peak around average power. It could be an elite hit tool, though, and even 8-12 homers a year would be plenty for a high-average, high-OBP shortstop to be an All-Star.

    2023 Ranking: 48

    Rodriguez missed about 2/3 of the 2022 season after a knee injury, but he impressed scouts with his power and approach in the limited time he played. He showed more of the same in a full season of work in 2023, moving to High A as a 20-year-old and hitting .240/.400/.463 with 92 walks in 99 games, although now it’s time for him to swing more often and convert those good counts into damage. He started out 2023 in horrific fashion, with a .163 average and 38.5 percent strikeout rate through the end of May, so the season line may not do him justice. He’s got a big leg kick, and when he swings, he swings pretty hard, with plus game power already and high exit velocities for his age, offering the possibility of a 30-homer corner bat with high walk totals. He’s a 55 runner who plays center now, with a body that’s probably going to slow down and push him to a corner as he gets into his 20s, with maybe average range up the middle as it is. He doesn’t chase much, with his high strikeout total more a function of running deep counts than poor recognition — he saw 4.29 pitches per PA last year, putting him in the top 5 percent of all minor leaguers with at least 400 PA, but needs to swing a little more at good strikes. There’s real upside with the bat if he translates the selectivity into more of the hard contact he’s already making when he does deign to swing.

    2023 Ranking: 100

    Chandler finally gave up trying to be a two-way player, and it’s probably not surprising that he made much more progress in 2023 just trying to pitch than he had the year before. Chandler has an incredible fastball, 94-98 mph with huge induced vertical, a pitch that, when he stops trying to be too fine in locating it, will be a wipeout offering. He pairs it with a 70 changeup and can spin two distinct breaking balls, although landing either of them is still a work in progress. As you might expect from a former shortstop/pitcher and high school quarterback, he’s an outstanding athlete and his delivery doesn’t have a ton of effort for the velocity it generates. He had some control issues early in the year, but finished strongly — his final nine starts, one of which came in Double A, had him throwing 48 2/3 innings with 51 strikeouts, 13 walks, and a 1.66 ERA. He’s got the highest ceiling of the Pirates’ trio of starter prospects (not named Paul Skenes) along with Jared Jones and lefty Anthony Solometo.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    In 2022, Horton was about as late a pop-up guy as you’ll ever find in the draft; he missed 2021 with Tommy John surgery, didn’t join the University of Oklahoma’s rotation until partway through the spring, and changed his breaking ball right before their postseason, turning into one of the best pitchers in the NCAA tournament field. The Cubs took him with the seventh-overall pick, a selection I thought was very risky given his scant track record of success, but he’s kept improving since they signed him and right now the pick looks brilliant. Horton was a two-pitch guy in college without anything for lefties, relying on an out-pitch slider up to 89 mph that had very sharp, late downward break, while touching 98 with the fastball. The Cubs helped him dust off his seldom-used changeup, and with more reps it’s become a plus pitch for him and can allow him to get by with a fastball that doesn’t have tremendous movement. He’ll have to work more on fastball command, but the fact that he finished his first full pro year in Double A, just 16 months after his season ERA for Oklahoma hit 7.94 when he got crushed in the Big 10 Tournament, is quite a story for him and for the Cubs. He looks like a mid-rotation starter, although with the speed of his development so far I might still be selling him short.

    2023 Ranking: 17

    Collier was the 18th pick in the 2022 draft out of Chipola College, where he’d played as a 17-year-old after graduating early from high school and moving to the junior college to enter the draft a year sooner. The son of former big leaguer Lou Collier, Cam is already pushing 6-3 and past his listed 210 pounds, enough that he’ll probably have to work on conditioning now rather than gaining strength so he can stay at third base. He’s a bat-first guy and projects to hit for average and power, showing good feel for the strike zone despite his youth and very rarely missing on pitches in the zone last year (with the caveat that the Florida State League has the ABS in place). After a slow start as one of the youngest players anywhere in full-season ball, Collier picked it up in the second half, hitting .290/.389/.395 with plenty of hard contact, topping out over 110 mph. He’s younger than five of the 11 high school position players taken in the first 30 picks of the 2023 draft, yet already has a full year of pro ball experience. He can still cut through the ball too often, hitting it on the ground way more than he should last year (53 percent in Low A) as he made contact on some pitches he should have let go by, and he has to avoid getting any bigger so he doesn’t end up moving to the outfield. He makes more than enough hard contact to project 25+ homers and strong batting averages as long as he continues to make adjustments as he faces better pitching up the ladder.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Luis hadn’t played in the U.S. before 2023 but finished his season in Low A, hitting four homers in 36 games for Visalia with a .257/.310/.417 line as a true 18 year old. He already shows tremendous bat speed and makes strong contact for his age and size, as he’s about 6 feet and still lean, with plus or better power projection when he fills out. He’s got a great swing for both average and power from both sides of the plate, showing solid swing decisions for his age with room for improvement as he gets older, especially as he faces better offspeed stuff. He’s a shortstop now, probably a 45 defender there when it’s all said and done and better off moving to second base, where he still has All-Star upside because of the bat.

    2023 Ranking: 47

    Tiedemann threw just 44 innings in the regular season around injuries to his left shoulder and biceps, making four starts in the AFL to try to make up for some of the lost time. He did regain the velocity that had been missing at the end of 2022, bumping 98 mph and pitching at 93-96 in the outing I saw in the desert, with a plus changeup and a big-breaking slider that wasn’t up to its past standard that day. The slider’s pretty high spin and has good tilt, giving him two real weapons, one for lefties and one for righties, which also helps as his fastball doesn’t have a ton of life or movement and hitters square it up more than the velocity might imply. His delivery isn’t ideal for durability, as his shoulder stays open late, with some sling to the arm stroke, and that might be putting undue pressure on the joint. You have to start a guy with these weapons, and if he stays healthy enough for it he’s a mid-rotation starter or better depending on the control (maybe 45 now, but he’s shown better) and command (40). Two years of missed time and suboptimal mechanics give him a lot of reliever risk, though.

    2023 Ranking: 84

    House was the Nats’ first-round pick in 2021, then he missed more than half of his first full pro season with a back injury and COVID-19, so this past season was more of a proper debut for the slugging third baseman. He hit .297 or better at three different levels, from Low A to Double A, and struck out less than a quarter of the time on the season as he showed much better offspeed recognition than he had previously. He even flashed some power, with 12 homers in 88 games, although I think the expectation for him is even higher than that. Unfortunately, House is over-aggressive at the plate, swinging first and asking questions later, walking less than 5 percent of the time between High A and Double A, so his batting average, while not empty, was also less than full: he hit .312/.365/.497 on the year. He’s awkward at third base at times because he’s so big, but he’s got plenty of arm and when I’ve seen him he’s made the routine plays. He doesn’t have to become a high-walk guy to be an above-average regular — stay at third and up the in-game power and he’ll get there even with a 5 percent walk rate, because he already hits the ball pretty hard and can get the ball in the air, if sometimes too much. There are a number of paths to success here as long as he can tighten up the pitch recognition.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Teel was the best catcher in the 2023 draft class, a three-year starter at UVA who probably would have gotten first-round money out of high school had the pandemic not wiped out his senior season in New Jersey. He’s an unusually good athlete and runner for a backstop, with excellent bat speed and a swing that produces line drives to the gaps with occasional over-the-fence power, although in college he did much more damage against right-handers, with softer contact versus southpaws. He was a solid-average defender in college, very active behind the plate with a plus arm, but was not good in Double A when Boston sent him there at the end of the season — quite likely tired from a long season but also showing he needs to simplify his movements back there to catch better quality stuff than he had to handle in Charlottesville. He could come into some pull-side power with a few small adjustments at the plate, depending on how Boston wants to develop him; a catcher who hits a ton of line drives and is at least an average receiver is good enough to make some All-Star teams, and he’d solve a problem the Red Sox have had for years at that position.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Scott played three years at West Virginia, hitting a composite .254/.368/.419 and never hitting .300 in any of his seasons there, which is probably how an 80 runner at a major-conference school ends up a fifth-round pick. He took off in his full-season debut last year, hitting for a higher average at High A, Double A, and in the Arizona Fall League than he did in any season for the Mountaineers, while also stealing 94 bags to tie for the professional lead. He’s a plus defender in center, closer to a 70 than a 60, and he’s been very hard to strike out in the minors, with just a 15.6 percent strikeout rate between High A and Double A, something that particularly matters when you can turn almost any groundball into a hit. He’s small, but not feeble like a lot of guys who run like he does, and über-athletic, which is part of how he’s been able to make such quick adjustments on both sides of the ball. The floor here seems very high — a plus defender in center who adds this kind of value on the bases would have to be positively anemic with the bat to have no real value — while he could have a long, long run as an everyday guy even with just 8-12-homer-a-year power, which I think is already within reach.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    The Rays took Taylor with the 19th pick in the 2023 draft after a solid year at TCU where he hit a career-high 23 homers but slumped some in the middle of the spring, perhaps pushing him down in a draft loaded with college position players. He has a beautiful left-handed swing with excellent loft in his finish, so he barrels a lot of balls and projects to get to above-average power at his peak. He’s a solid-average defender at third right now and might have a 60 arm, while he’s athletic enough to improve there with work or move to second base. He’s an average runner but a smart base stealer who hasn’t been caught stealing since 2021, going 36 for 36 across college, summer ball, and the minors in the last two calendar years. His low BABIP last spring in college (.307) seemed very fluky based on his hard contact rates and typical launch angles, so it’s possible, even likely, that the Rays landed a top-10 talent here because he had an unlucky spring. I see an average regular who gets to the majors pretty quickly, with the potential to be a 55 or more if the defense improves and he reaches his 20-25 homer ceiling.

    2023 Ranking: Just missed

    The Jays challenged Martinez with an assignment to Double A to start 2022 when he was just 20 years old and had only 27 games of High-A experience, so it wasn’t a huge shock that he struggled, hitting .203/.286/.446 with a 28.4 percent strikeout rate. The Jays returned him to Double-A New Hampshire in 2023 and he looked like a different guy, improving his swing decisions across the board, posting the best walk rate of his career and his lowest strikeout rate since Rookie ball. He’s always had the raw power, with 86 homers across the last three seasons, but needed to hit enough to get to it, so improving not just the raw contact and walk numbers but getting into better counts and choosing better pitches to attack was and still is the key for him to be more than an extra guy in the majors. He can handle shortstop if need be but at best he’ll be an average defender there; I’ve seen him at third and think he can be above-average at the hot corner, while some scouts think second base will be his eventual home. A 30-homer, .320-330 OBP hitter at either spot is an everyday player on just about any club, and that’s his upside if he keeps working on his approach.

    2023 Ranking: 94

    Before he was traded to the Brewers in the Corbin Burnes deal last week, I wrote that Ortiz should be someone’s starting shortstop now, but he has the misfortune to play in an organization that has shortstops coming out of its ears — which should make him a very valuable player for hot stove purposes, as he can step into a big-league role right away. He’s a plus defender at short with a strong and accurate arm and he remade his swing and his body during the pandemic, returning much stronger and with a swing that drives the ball effectively to the gaps and gives him a chance for 15-20 homers a year. His exit velocity peaked around 115 mph in Triple A last year, and he makes contact at consistently high rates, under 20 percent strikeout rates everywhere he’s played except for his 34 scattered PA in the majors. A .280/.340/.450-ish hitter who adds 5 or so runs of value on defense is a pretty valuable player, I think, and while there’s no further ceiling or projection here, that ought to be enough to get him a starting job.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Nimmala was one of the youngest players in the 2023 draft class, turning 18 this past October; he fell to the 20th pick, where the Blue Jays were ecstatic to get a player I’d ranked as a top-10 talent. Nimmala offers the upside of a true shortstop with 25+ homer power, with good actions at short and a plus arm, while he can show a powerful and efficient right-handed swing that should launch balls as he fills out. He’s still physically immature, hardly surprising for his age, and as he gets stronger he might start to run a little better and drive the ball harder while also getting more consistent around the bag at short. He showed a little swing and miss in high school, but in a brief stint in the complex league he actually displayed more patience and very little tendency to chase. He’s going to be younger this season than some guys in the upcoming draft, and there’s no rush to send him right to full-season ball. Now that commissioner Rob Manfred has axed the short-season level between Low A and the complexes, there isn’t an ideal spot for a guy like Nimmala, but I hope the Jays play it conservatively given his age and his upside.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Lowder was the second pitcher taken in the 2023 draft, going seventh to the Reds after a tremendous spring for Wake Forest where he finished fourth in Division I with 143 strikeouts. He’s got a funky, deceptive delivery and shows three average or better pitches, with a fastball that can be plus but will probably be more 55 when he’s working on five days’ rest, a 70 changeup that was among the best in the class, and a solid-average slider. Hitters don’t see the ball well out of his hand, so his stuff plays up, and he also was able to get away with 45 command at best in the amateur ranks. There’s a limit to how far he can go with that delivery, as it’s going to be hard for him to be a good command guy and he might see his very low walk rates creep up as he gets to Double A and above, but he should also get to the majors quickly and could pitch for a decade or more as a No. 3 or 4 starter who soaks up innings.

    2023 Ranking: 65

    The Mariners have had a great run of first-round picks the last six years; starting in 2018, they took Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Ford, Cole Young, and Colt Emerson, so that’s two above-average big-league starters and three guys currently on this top-100. Ford has always been a work-in-progress as a catcher, as he’s super athletic but was really rough at the position as an amateur. He’s made enough progress that it seems like he could stay at the position, although he’s probably still on the low side of average when it comes to receiving and blocking. He may also hit his way off the position, as he shows elite strike zone judgment, ranking third in the minors in walks last year with 103 and striking out less than 20 percent of the time — although even that is surprising given how infrequently he chases. He might be better off sacrificing some contact for more power, as he’s strong enough to at least be a 40 doubles/15 homers guy, but his swing is incredibly short to the ball and right now it’s below-average game power as a result. He hits a lot like he’s always trying to keep his hands inside the ball, which is a great skill to have but not useful for all pitches in all locations. There are multiple paths for Ford to become a big-league starter — he could just improve his defense to the point where he stays there, and then the bat will play immediately; he could move to somewhere on the infield, where the bat would play but you’d like a little more power; or he could take his athleticism and speed to the outfield, easing the defensive concerns and strain on his body but then almost requiring more in-game power. I’ll bet on an athlete who knows the strike zone, though.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Kjerstad reached the majors last year in just his second pro season, and I don’t think enough attention has been paid to how tough a road he had from draft day to the big leagues. Kjerstad developed myocarditis after a bout with COVID-19 in 2020, missing all of 2021 while recovering from the condition, and when he returned in 2022 he looked rusty and had trouble catching up to good velocity — nothing like the player he was at Arkansas in 2019-20. Last year, he was all the way back and then some, making consistent hard contact and more of it than before; when the O’s picked him second in 2020, his high strikeout rates against SEC pitching stood out as a red flag, but last year he showed the best two-strike approach of his career and kept his season strikeout rate under 20 percent until he reached the majors. There’s still more chase than you’d like to see in a corner outfielder whose value is mostly in the bat, and lefties are going to attack him with spin until he shows he can lay off it. Because he hits the ball so hard, so often, I think he can be an above-average hitter even if his strikeout rate drifts north of 25 percent, probably getting to 20-25 homers a year and a high BABIP as well. And maybe then I’ll stop joking about how his name sounds like the lead singer of a melodic death metal band or a storage unit you’d buy at IKEA.

    2023 Ranking: 85

    Pereira wasn’t ready for the majors last year, but that doesn’t dim his long-term outlook as a potential regular for someone, maybe as a center fielder who can get to 30 homers once his approach catches up with his tools. He has outstanding bat speed, producing a ton of hard contact with a swing that should produce plus power over time and is very short to the ball but explosive once he begins, then with good loft in his finish for some big flies. He’s a 55 runner now with a plus arm and can play center field, although it’s possible that he’ll be pushed to a corner if he loses some speed as he finishes filling out. He struggled with offspeed recognition even in the minors, notably changeups, and that caused him further trouble in the big leagues, as did his habit of expanding the zone too quickly. The Juan Soto trade might be the best thing for him, as it’ll give him plenty of time in Triple A to work on his plan at the plate, laying off more of those pitches out of the zone and better identifying non-fastballs. There’s risk here but if he both stays up the middle and gets to his power peak, he’ll be an All-Star.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Bradfield is an 80 runner and either a 70 or 80 defender in center, depending on who you ask and perhaps when you see him, not that it matters that much in the end — he’s got two top-end tools, and that gives him a high floor and a lot of runway to work on the other aspects of his game. Bradfield seemed like a lock for a top-10 pick after his freshman year at Vanderbilt, when he hit .336/.451/.414 as a 19-year-old in the SEC, stealing 47 bases in 53 attempts, but somewhere, someone convinced him to change his swing to try to hit for power, and while he did go from 1 homer as a freshman to hitting 14 the next two seasons, his overall hitting went backward and I think helped Baltimore land him at pick 15 last season. (It did not help that Bradfield constantly tried to bunt for hits, putting himself behind in the count and doing nothing to right his swing. I have a lot of feelings about this.) He’s not a power hitter, but he’s not powerless, if that makes sense — he is capable of putting 5-10 balls in the seats a year, but the more he tries to do so, the worse he’ll be as a hitter. Last spring, he was loading his hands extremely deep, taking a huge stride, opening his hips way too early, then collapsing his back side to try to lift — or will — the ball out of the park. He needs a simpler approach, like the one he had as a freshman, that focuses on putting the ball in play, as he’ll end up with a lot of extra bases thanks to his speed, and he does have enough strength to drive balls to the gaps and catch up to major-league fastballs. I don’t change players’ rankings or evaluations based on their parent organizations, since that could change at any time, but I think Bradfield is in an organization that will figure out what to do with him very quickly. At worst, you’ve got an elite fourth outfielder/pinch runner, while the ceiling here is huge defensive impact with an average bat.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Troy was the 12th pick in 2023 after a strong junior year at Stanford where he hit .394/.478/.699 as the Cardinal’s primary third baseman — and he did it playing most of the season with a broken bone in his foot that he didn’t get fixed until the fall. He’s an advanced hitter who showed strong exit velocities this spring, although he needed to get the ball in the air more often (again, bearing in mind the broken foot). His bigger question is his ultimate position; he’s athletic enough for the infield, third base or second most likely, but his footwork isn’t great and he may end up in the outfield. The bat should profile anywhere, although he’s quite a bit more valuable if he can just be a 45 defender at second base than he would be in left field.

    2023 Ranking: 80

    Manzardo was the Rays’ second-round pick in 2021 out of Washington State, where he showed outstanding feel to hit but didn’t put the ball over the fence as much as you’d expect for his size or want for his lack of defensive value. Traded to Cleveland this past July for Aaron Civale, Manzardo started turning on the ball a lot more after he came off the injured list (for a shoulder issue) in August, with six homers in 21 games for Triple-A Columbus and six more in 22 games in the Arizona Fall League. He’s an extremely disciplined hitter who doesn’t chase much and almost never misses on fastballs, destroying right-handed pitching with some trouble with lefties — he makes enough contact but had a .195 BABIP against them last year, which feels fluky given how hard he typically hits the ball. His best position is in the batter’s box and you’ll have to live with some limited defense at first base, which caps his ceiling somewhat, but if he closes that platoon split (or if it turns out to be at least partly bad luck) he’s got a .380-.400 OBP, 30 homer ceiling that will play anywhere.

    2023 Ranking: 92

    Quero went from the Angels to the White Sox in the Lucas Giolito trade, giving Chicago a bona fide catching prospect for the first time since … Josh Phegley, maybe? It’s been a minute, but they landed a good one in Quero, who has shown exceptional zone awareness for his age and has very real bat-to-ball skills already. He’s a true switch-hitter with high walk and contact rates from both sides, flashing a little pull power but probably maxing out at 10-15 homers a year. He put on a little too much lower-body weight last year, possibly an effort to get him more juice at the plate, but it seemed to slow him down a little defensively. He’s a solid-average catcher overall, improving a little each year and capable of becoming a 55 or better if he continues to work on consistency in receiving and blocking. He has just an average arm, which might be the only drawback to his game. Otherwise, you can project an everyday catcher with 50-55 defense, an OBP north of .350, and a little pop, which is a starter on the majority of MLB teams.

    2023 Ranking: 74

    Busch is the oldest guy on the list this year and just barely still qualifies — one more day on an MLB roster would have put him over the rookie-eligibility limit — but he’s ready for everyday duty in the majors right now, and after this winter’s trade to the Cubs, it looks like he’ll get that opportunity. He’s hit pretty much everywhere he’s played, showing power and hard contact over the last three seasons between Double A and Triple A, while cutting his K-rate significantly while repeating Triple A this past year (26 percent to 19 percent). Even with 61 homers over the last two years, though, he doesn’t project as a 25-30 homer guy in the majors, with a swing that’s more geared towards low line drives. In his 81 PA with the Dodgers last year, that swing resulted in an uncharacteristically high ground-ball rate (58.7 percent, compared to 38.5 percent in his Triple-A time). He’s played first, second, third, and left field in pro ball, looking rough at third but playable at second, while first base is his best position and, fortunately, it’s where the Cubs will ask him to play. I think he’ll end up with an OBP in the .340-350 range and 18-22 homers a year with 30+ doubles, which would make him a solid to above-average regular at first as long as his defense is right around average.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Ramos missed most of the first two months of the 2023 season with a lower abdomen injury and took a little while to get rolling, but ended up with a .271/.369/.457 line as a 21-year-old in Double A. He hit 14 homers in 77 Double-A games, peaking at 111 mph with consistently hard contact. He swings one way, hard, and it’s very rotational, so that might be how the ab injury happened in the first place. Maintaining that core strength will be key for him going forward; he might naturally come into a little more power but he’s strong enough now for 25 homers, so developing the rest of his game is more important. His approach is solid for his age, as he doesn’t expand the zone too easily and kept his strikeout rate in Double A to just under 22 percent, even though he does swing hard pretty much all the time. He’s also a solid-average defender at third with a 55 arm, and could move to second if need be. Ramos could end up doing a little of everything, hitting for average with a 10 percent walk rate and 20-25 homers, and if the version from late in the Arizona Fall League — using the whole field while looking for pitches to pull — carries over, he might be more of a 30-homer guy who cracks some All-Star teams.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Thompson was Colorado’s second pick in the 2022 draft at No. 31. He arrived in pro ball as an advanced hitter from the University of Florida with an uncertain positional profile. The Rockies have moved him around the diamond a bunch, trying him at third and second while giving him some time in the outfield, although in the end it’s his bat that will carry him. Thompson might have a true plus hit tool already, with a pretty simple swing and excellent bat speed, rotating his hips enough to get to at least average power, and he’s shown he can hit left-handed pitching so far in pro ball. He’s best in an outfield corner who has shown he can make the routine plays at second or third to give him some versatility and open up more paths to the majors. There was concern when he was an amateur that he’d have to play first base and might not have the power to profile there; I don’t think either of those things is true at this point, especially not the positional questions, as he’s fine in the outfield and looks like he’ll at least have the average/doubles power to be a strong regular there. He should see the majors at some point this year and could very quickly become the Rockies’ best hitter for average.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Wilken was the Brewers’ first-round pick in 2023 from a loaded Wake Forest team that had two first-rounders and three more guys taken in the second/third rounds last year, and that might have as many as five first-rounders this upcoming year. Even with a big slump in the middle of last spring, Wilken still hit 31 homers for the Deacons — whose home park is homer-friendly — and shows 55 power right now, with excellent balance and hip rotation that point to the potential for more down the road. He’s a hitter first with very high barrel rates in college and solid ball/strike recognition, so he’s comfortable running deep counts. I’m not saying he’s Jeff Bagwell, but that’s the archetype of the young hitter who hits the ball pretty hard, knows the strike zone, and has to grow into more power, so I could see Wilken becoming a 25-homer guy who still posts high OBPs. He’s a solid-average defender at third with a 55 arm, capable of making some difficult plays but needing more consistency on routine ones, with some concern that as the game speeds up he might have trouble maintaining the glove. Even at first base, where the Brewers do have a long-term need anyway, his bat should still make him a solid regular or more.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Snelling was the 39th pick in the 2022 draft, a pitcher-quarterback-linebacker who enticed scouts with his size, athleticism, and arm strength. He made his full-season debut last year and showed superb control at Low A and High A before a late promotion to Double A, where he walked more guys but remained hard to hit. He’s a very strong, physical kid, not overly muscled up although he’ll have to work to remain that way, working 92-96 mph most of the time with a 55 slider and 55 changeup, but nothing clearly plus right now. There’s some effort to his delivery and head-jerk at release, while he can slow his arm down when he’s not throwing his fastball, something hitters will pick up sooner rather than later. He’s also barely 20 and split his time in high school between two sports, so he should have more room to grow than the typical second-year pitcher would. There’s reliever risk, but a No. 2 or 3 starter ceiling, with the median outcome probably more around a fourth starter who’s got some above-average years and some below-average ones.

    2023 Ranking: 63

    Hence was a slight 17-year-old when the Cardinals drafted him in the second round in 2020 — the same draft class that landed them Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, and Alec Burleson. He pitched just eight innings in 2021 around some minor injury stuff and general workload management, but he took off in 2022 and followed that up with a career-high 96 innings in 2023. Hence is an excellent athlete and has a lightning-quick arm, although it hasn’t translated into a plus breaking ball of any sort yet. He sits 94-96 mph and can reach 98, with a plus or plus-plus changeup already and a slurvy low-80s breaker that’s effective now but that he doesn’t command or finish that well. He’s extremely athletic and has continued to fill out and get stronger to hold his stuff and work deeper into games, so there’s hope he can find a better third pitch, but so far he hasn’t shown much ability to spin or manipulate the ball and the slurve works in part because the fastball/changeup discombobulate hitters (except at the Milwaukee airport). Hence has a very high floor in relief, as he has great arm speed on the changeup and it falls right off the table as it approaches the plate, so he has the two pitches to dominate in short bursts. The hope is he can tighten up the breaking ball or try another one, even a cutter, to give him enough of a third weapon to turn a lineup over three times and be a mid-rotation guy.

    2023 Ranking: 71

    Cavalli reached the majors at the end of 2022, making one start before hitting the injured list and eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery last March that wiped out his 2023 season. Prior to the injury, he showed size, stuff, athleticism, and the need to work on command and sequencing, things that you hope would come with more repetitions. He’s got easy plus velocity on the fastball and works with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a curveball that has power and depth and moves in a different direction than his other pitches, allowing him to play more with sequencing to change hitters’ eye levels and expectations. He has a solid changeup that he uses primarily against left-handed batters, with almost no platoon split in 2022, and a short slider that’s hard and cutter-like in shape and function. Once he returns at some point this spring, he’ll be working to regain his feel, but also to pound the zone more and work on mixing his pitches more effectively. He still has that mid-rotation, innings-eater upside, assuming anyone even remembers what that means at this point.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Seldom has there been a better fit between a player in the draft and the team that took him. Dollander was the best pitcher in college baseball as a sophomore, with a 2.39 ERA for Tennessee that was built on a 35 percent strikeout rate, 4 percent walk rate, and a wipeout slider that looked like it would put him in play for the first pick in 2023. Alas, he changed his grip on the slider to try to make it more of a sweeper — I have heard he did it, Tennessee’s coaches did it, some third party told him to do it, and don’t really know the truth — making it not just worse but often ineffective, as he’d go entire starts without getting a swing and miss on it. The good news is that he’s aware of it and, with the Rockies’ help, the plan is to restore his 2022 slider, which would make him a steal — the sort of high-end starter the team needs, someone who’s probably a No. 2 starter with some small but non-zero chance of becoming an ace. He’s 93-97 mph and fills up the zone with it, touching 99, and if there’s a silver lining to the loss of his slider last year it’s that he used his changeup more, improving his feel to the point where it’s a solid-average third pitch for him. The slider was a legit 70 in 2022, with very tight rotation and late downward break, the opposite of sweep — and hey, I know the “sweeper” is all the rage right now, but traditional sliders are people too, right? I’m very hopeful that he’ll go out to High A to start the year and dominate between that out pitch and the control he’d shown prior to 2023, getting to Double-A Hartford by midyear and banging on the door of the big leagues.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Nastrini went to the White Sox in the trade that sent Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers, a tremendous deal for the Sox that also netted them power-armed relief prospect Jordan Leasure. Nastrini was the Dodgers’ fourth-round pick in 2021 off a spring at UCLA where he walked 38 guys in 31 innings, a hell of a job by Los Angeles’ amateur scouting group, as he’s improved a ton since the moment he signed and projects as a fourth starter or better depending on how much further his command and control develop. He works with four pitches, sitting 93-96 mph with a plus changeup and plus slider. He has a pretty consistent delivery and traditional three-quarters arm slot that doesn’t give him a ton of deception; he gives up a lot of contact in the air, so there’s a risk he becomes homer-prone or at least prone to extra-base hits as he moves up the ladder. The fastball might be his worst pitch, but he has three other weapons to use, with the changeup possibly a 70 given how much trouble hitters have with it. It doesn’t have terrific action, but it looks just like the heater coming out of his hand, and hitters missed it more than half the time they swung at it last year. There’s still some relief risk as he walked about 11 percent of batters he faced last year and will have to work to limit hard contact. His 2023 season had more positives than negatives, however, and the odds of him remaining a starter went over 50 percent for the first time.

    2023 Ranking: 24

    A funny thing happened while Mead was working his way to the majors last year: The guy the Rays traded to acquire him, lefty Cristopher Sánchez, moved into the rotation and threw up a 2.2 WAR season for the Phillies, so now that trade doesn’t look as lopsided as it did when the Phillies dealt a top-100 prospect for a fringy reliever. Mead was hit by a pitch on his wrist at the end of April in Triple A, so while he did debut in the majors later in the year he didn’t show the consistent contact quality he’d shown in previous years, although his exit velocity did still peak at 108 mph in the majors. He looked rough defensively at third and second in the majors but didn’t grade out as badly as you’d expect by defensive metrics; I doubt he’ll ever be more than fringy at third, but if he’s just adequate there — no worse than 2-3 runs below average a year — the bat should play. Expect solid averages with a ton of doubles, low walk and strikeout rates, and probably more complaints about his defense than it actually merits.

    2023 Ranking: 58

    Arroyo had a so-so campaign as a 19-year-old in High A last season, hitting .248/.321/.427 in 119 games with a lot of contact (21 percent strikeout rate) but without any real progress in the quality of contact or his game power over 2022. He’s a bat-first prospect who can handle shortstop, flashing above-average range but grading out around average overall by other teams’ analysts, offering true switch-hit potential and the upside of 15 or so homers a year if he fills out as expected. He’s got a live bat with quick hands and handles fastballs well for someone who isn’t that strong yet, but he has trouble with spin on both sides of the plate, especially when he’s batting left-handed — that is, the more important side. He’s an above-average runner who has good instincts on the bases and should rack up 30 steals a year in the majors. It’s a lot more projection today than it seemed like a year ago, after the Reds added him in the Luis Castillo trade and he hit well in two stops in Low A. He needs to get stronger, to pick up breaking pitches more easily, and to at least get more consistency on defense. He’s also just 20 years old and ready to go to Double A, so his performance looks a lot better in context. The upside of an everyday shortstop and switch-hitter with a little pop is still there; I think he’s just further away from it than I thought he was last offseason.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Schultz was Chicago’s first-round pick in 2022, a local kid who’d missed much of that spring with mono but offered a ton of projection on velocity and his slider — not to mention the upside of a 6-9 lefty with great extension. The projection started to show up in 2023 as he often worked 93-96 mph with huge sink and tail along with a plus slider that, from his lower arm slot, makes him deadly to left-handed batters, with obvious comparisons to Chris Sale, who changed his hand position on his slider after signing and became, well, Chris Sale. There’s a ton of risk here between Schultz’s injury history and his size, so it’s maybe 50/50 whether he remains a starter. Schultz’s 2023 season ended in late August when he suffered a shoulder impingement, although he should be ready to go for spring training, and the history of 6-9 or taller pitchers in general is not great for health or command. You can see No. 1 starter upside, or top-end reliever potential, depending on his health and how his coordination improves as he fills out his huge frame.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Waldrep’s splitter was one of the best pitches in the draft last year, helping him rank third in Division I with 156 strikeouts, but he used the pitch too often and his overall line suffered a little, which may be how a guy who touched 99 mph with a bona fide out-pitch slid to the 24th pick in the draft. Atlanta grabbed him and, bucking every industry trend, had him throw 29 1/3 innings in pro ball in his debut, finishing with a single start in Triple A. The splitter is just sick — it looks like a fastball out of his hand, has good velo separation from the heater at 85-89, and has huge bottom to it, yanked downward by some invisible zombie hand coming out of the ground like in the “Thriller” video. It also finishes out of the zone too often to be his go-to pitch — it’s a chase pitch, and a great one, but that’s all, and he’ll need to use all four pitches together to be a big-league starter. He has a curve and slider, either of which would likely improve with use, as in college he wouldn’t finish them out front, while his fastball sits 95 but doesn’t have great ride or life. He may never have more than average control, so he’ll really have to mix the four pitches to keep hitters off balance and generate more swings and misses. If not, he’s an easy guy to move to the bullpen, where he could junk one of the breaking balls and would be fine using the splitter at a higher rate than he can as a starter.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Delauter missed 15 months with a broken foot he suffered in college in 2022, re-aggravating the injury while rehabbing. He didn’t make his pro debut until a year after the Guardians took him with the 16th pick in the 2022 draft. He’s only played in 57 pro games, plus 23 more in the AFL, but to his credit he’s hit at every level up through a six-game stint in Double A, even with an ugly swing that doesn’t look like it’ll produce power or even let him be consistently on time. He’s an excellent athlete who might be a plus runner at full health and definitely has a plus arm, with the potential for big defensive value in right field. He’s shown great feel for the strike zone everywhere he’s ever played, including his time at James Madison and a summer on Cape Cod, where he was one of just four regulars to walk more than he struck out. It is a really unfortunate swing, though; he opens his hips early and all but drags the bat to the zone that makes it look like he’s trying to scoop the ball with the bat head and poke it to right field. He hasn’t seen much velocity yet in pro ball, so he may not be tested until this year when he’s playing in Double A or Triple A. There’s real upside here with his defense and the contact skills he’s demonstrated, but the bad swing and injury history point to the downside risk that he’s just an extra outfielder. He reminds me some of Brett Jackson, another first-rounder with an awkward swing but great athleticism who hit everywhere he played until the majors.

    2023 Ranking: Sleeper

    Fernandez destroyed High A last year in just his second season in the U.S., as the Cuban outfielder signed in 2019 and debuted in 2021 in the DSL, finally seeing full-season ball in 2022 in the Cal League. In 2023, he hit .319/.355/.605 for High-A Spokane in 58 games, then struggled after a promotion to Double A, hitting .206/.262/.362 in the more pitcher-friendly Eastern League. He makes very hard contact and projects to 30-homer power in a neutral environment, while he has the easy plus arm to handle right field, although his range will probably be 45ish in either corner. It comes down to discipline, as he chases too many pitches out of the zone, and Double-A arms were able to exploit this with breaking stuff where A-ball guys weren’t. He’s a good enough bad-ball hitter to get away with expanding the zone a little, just not to the extent that he did after his promotion. There’s too much power and strength here to ignore, and the environments he’ll face in Triple A and the majors will help him even if he never gets past 45 plate discipline, with .300+ averages and 30 homers quite possible with Coors Field as his home park.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Lin barely cracked my top-20 Diamondbacks prospects last year, as he wasn’t throwing that hard (around 89-90 mph) and got inexperienced hitters out because he had such good offspeed stuff. He topped out in 2023 at 94, and the secondaries are still there, while he keeps adding and tinkering with his arsenal, throwing a true screwball (which already makes me a fan), a plus changeup, a curve, a slider, and now a cutter as well. He’s very athletic and fiercely competitive, fielding his position extremely well, and now that he’s got a big-league fastball it’s a lot easier to see him staying in the rotation. He doesn’t walk guys because he’s aggressive when he gets to 3-ball counts, but it’s 45 control right now as he gets a lot of chases on the secondaries. He dominated High A and moved up to Double-A Amarillo — an extreme hitter’s park — midseason, becoming homer-prone at home (6 HRA in 34 2/3 innings) but not on the road (1 HRA in 26 1/3 innings). Lin is going to face a lot of bias because he’s small (listed at 5-11, 160, but height don’t measure heart … or changeups) and because he’s from Taiwan, which so far has produced only two successful MLB starters, Chien-Ming Wang and Wei-Yin Chen. Neither of those is a real issue here — he’s got the weapons, the poise, the competitiveness, and the athleticism to start, and if he holds this stuff while improving his command and control, he has mid-rotation potential.

    2023 Ranking: 21

    Luciano started the year on the IL while recovering from a stress fracture in his lower back, finally got rolling after some time in Double A, then ended up in the big leagues and was mostly overmatched. He did hit the ball very hard in the majors, as he’s done everywhere when healthy, and he’s able to keep up with fastballs, but offspeed stuff was an issue even in Double A, and killed him at the next two stops — he went from a 30 percent strikeout rate in Double A to 35 percent in Triple A to 37 percent in the big leagues, which is all an argument that he should have stayed at Double A until he showed better non-fastball recognition. He’s also not a shortstop, and I think moving him to left field might allow him to focus more on developing the bat while also perhaps keeping him healthy. He’s still quite young, just 22 all season with barely 300 professional games on his resume, and he’s got a strong swing that’s geared for 25-30 homers. I never bought him as a shortstop, or really even a second baseman, but I thought the bat would be more advanced than this. He can still be an above-average regular if the Giants give him the time to develop his pitch recognition.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Eldridge was a two-way prospect in high school who was 91-95 mph off the mound but without an average second pitch, so his future always seemed to be in the batter’s box. He’s 6-7 and can show you the huge power that you associate with those taller guys, but unlike most hitters his size, he has a very short swing and there’s reason to hope he’ll be an outlier among his peers when it comes to contact rate. His technique is geared toward putting the ball in play rather than a dead-pull approach to show off his power, so he goes the other way comfortably and hits the ball very hard when he does so. He was bothered by an ankle injury for the latter half of the spring and wasn’t running that well even over the summer when the Giants moved him to right field from his high school position of first base, although I’d reserve judgment on his outfield defense until this season when we see him at full go. There’s definitely risk here, as the history of hitters 6-7 and up is not great because their size typically means they swing and miss too often; the exceptions have done it with huge power, like Aaron Judge and the late Frank Howard. Eldridge’s ceiling is one where the power comes, but he also maintains a higher contact rate than other lowercase-g giants because of the shape of his swing.

    2023 Ranking: 62

    Rushing was the Dodgers’ second-round pick in 2022, when they didn’t have a first-round selection. After signing, he hit .424/.539/.778 in 28 games in Low A — a small sample, sure, but early reports from pro scouts were of the “how did the Dodgers get this guy in the second round?” variety. The University of Louisville alum’s full-season debut was more of a mixed bag, as he moved to High A and hit .228/.404/.452 in 89 games, playing average defense with an average arm and working well with pitchers. The low average is a surprise for an ACC product in High A, as he wasn’t young for the level, and some of the concerns from his college days that he had trouble hitting velocity popped back up last year — he didn’t see a ton of big velo, but struggled against it when he did. On the plus side, he has a very disciplined approach with strong ball/strike recognition and a commensurately low chase rate, and he makes hard enough contact that his .276 BABIP may include some bad luck. The bar is low for an everyday catcher; if you can hit 20 homers and draw a bunch of walks with average defense, you may be able to start in the big leagues. I’m just a little more concerned about Rushing’s bat than I was a year ago.

    2023 Ranking: 56

    Jung was the 12th pick in the 2022 draft after two fantastic years hitting for Texas Tech. He did bring questions about his position and his unorthodox setup at the plate to pro ball, one of which I think has been answered. Jung starts with his hands way back and above his rear shoulder, which you’d expect to cause timing problems, but so far he’s at least shown he can make hard contact, with 28 homers between High A and Double A last year with solid (but not elite) exit velocities. He did show some holes after he moved to Double A, particularly missing fastballs up in the zone and sliders in and below it, which reawakened those concerns about his hand setup and timing, although the Tigers have some positive experience helping hitters simplify their swings (notably Parker Meadows) to reduce those concerns. Of more import is Jung’s need for a position — he’s heavy-footed, far more so than his brother Josh, and while his defense at second graded out well by some team metrics, he’s not very mobile and I don’t think he’ll ever offer much range. If he’s a 45 defender at second with this sort of 60-70 extra-base-hits-a-year profile, he’s an above-average regular. He still has those same two questions to answer this year in Double A, however.

    2023 Ranking: 72

    It was a lost year for Bleis in 2023, as he hit .230/.282/.325 in his first taste of Low A, but hurt his shoulder after 31 games and underwent season-ending surgery. He’d had previous subluxations in that shoulder, so the hope is the surgery will clear that issue up permanently and let him get back to hitting. He’ll show five tools, with 60 raw power and 55 speed that would allow him to stay in center long-term if he doesn’t lose speed as he fills out, and he has great bat speed that’s undermined by a poor approach and some extra movement before he gets the barrel going toward the zone. He’s looking fastball too often, so he struggled with pitch and ball/strike recognition in 2022 and his brief stint in 2023, chasing secondary stuff out of the zone more than he should, but that’s the sort of thing that only improves with playing time. I wrote last year that I wouldn’t “be shocked or too dismayed if he struggles early in Low A as an inexperienced 19-year-old,” and that did happen, but he never got a chance to make adjustments. There’s still high-average/25-homer potential in a center fielder here. Depending on his shoulder strength — he’s supposed to be full go for spring training, at least — and how much time he needs to shake off the rust, however, any progress might not come until later in the year.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Miller had a chance to go in the top half of the first round in 2023, but a broken hamate bone took him out for almost the entire spring, so he had to make up some ground in pre-draft workouts and ended up going to the Phillies at pick No. 27. He has big power already even with a fairly simple swing, impressing multiple teams in those workouts with how the power played in big-league stadiums, although the sense is that the power tool may be ahead of the hit tool. He likes the ball middle-away so he can get his arms extended, and he had difficulty with pitches on the inner-third when he was playing in games the previous summer. He played shortstop in 18 games after the Phillies signed him, but he’s going to be a third baseman, as he doesn’t have close to the agility or range for short while his hands and arm would play well at third. By spring training he’ll be a year off the hamate injury and should have his full strength back, at which point we’ll see if the Phillies got a steal — maybe an everyday third baseman with 25-30 homer power.

    2023 Ranking: Sleeper

    I don’t typically put pure relief prospects on my top 100; the exceptions have been, well, exceptional, most recently Josh Hader, who has produced over 11 WAR in six-plus seasons in the majors. Misiorowski is working as a starter now and should continue to do so, but the delivery screams reliever, as he can’t repeat it and won’t get close to average command the way it all works now. He also boasts one of the best two-pitch combinations in baseball, with his fastball and slider at least 7s and you could make an argument either or both is an 8. He can touch 100 mph and regularly works in the upper 90s with high spin and excellent carry on the pitch. The slider has tilt, angle, depth, and tight rotation, running 84-90 when I saw him in a start in May. He doesn’t have a viable pitch for lefties yet, and the delivery, with visible effort, a high elbow, and a head-whack at release, is not conducive to strike-throwing or durability; he walked more than 13 percent of batters on the whole in 2023, including 15 percent in his final stop in Double A. The Brewers are handling him carefully, as he didn’t face more than 20 batters or throw more than 97 pitches in any outing last year. That is the right approach even if you think his future is in the bullpen, as he still needs to work on throwing strikes, figuring out the right weapon for lefties and maybe not throwing 100 percent on every pitch because his stuff moves so well. Multi-inning relief work is coming back into fashion, finally, and Misiorowski certainly has the potential to be a very good reliever in that role. I could see him posting a couple of 3-WAR seasons that way if his control improves.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    Schanuel was the 11th pick in the 2023 draft and became the first player from that draft to reach the majors when the Angels called him up on Aug. 18. He acquitted himself quite well in his major-league debut with a .275/.402/.330 line and more walks than strikeouts. Schanuel’s plate discipline is real, as he rarely chases out of the zone and hammers fastballs, so the question is whether he can get to more power from such a big frame. His hands start high above his head, but that doesn’t inhibit his timing, and he seems to get his hips and legs involved in his swing enough, yet so far it hasn’t resulted in either big in-game power or high exit velocities. He’s probably limited to first base as well, so he could have a Dave Magadan-like career even without more power output (Magadan produced 21.1 WAR and played 16 seasons), but if I’m the Angels I’m all about trying to get a 6-4, 220+ pound hitter to hit like one.

    2023 Ranking: Ineligible

    The worst thing you can say about Meyer is that he was a high school pitcher taken in the first round, and if you’ve read anything I’ve written in the last 10 years you probably know I’m going to say that is about as high-risk a category as you’ll find in the draft. He’s still just 19 and has to stay healthy the next few years even though he’s already throwing quite hard, but the pure stuff here is pretty impressive, with four pitches that you might grade out as plus depending on when you see him. He hit 101 mph in high school and worked up to 96 in his brief time in pro ball, showing a very high-spin breaking ball that’s his best pitch now along with a tight slider and a changeup that showed very well in the minors after he barely used it in the spring. He comes from a little below three-quarters and his fastball can ride flat up in the zone, so he’ll have to work more with his offspeed stuff and/or tighten up his command significantly. He’s still young and looks like he’s barely begun to mature physically, while on the mound he’s been able to out-stuff hitters and has to work on the other aspects of pitching, from command to sequencing to ancillary things like fielding his position. I had a scout call it a “top of the rotation look,” which sums him up well: This is what a future top-of-the-rotation starter might look like at age 19, although guys who look like Meyer does at age 19 do not always end up top-of-the-rotation starters.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Stewart was one of only two teenagers to walk more than he struck out in full-season ball last year — the other, Pittsburgh’s Jesus Castillo, slugged .251 on the season. Stewart was the Reds’ second pick, 32nd in the 2022 draft, a polished high school first baseman who needed to get stronger for more in-game power. The Reds moved him to third base, where the results have been passable, enough to think he can be a 45 defender there, although his value is still going to reside in his bat. He’s got real plate discipline, picking up balls/strikes as well as recognizing pitch types, and he’s hitting the ball harder already, topping 106 mph in the Florida State League with five of his 12 homers on the season going to the opposite field. He’s very selective, even when ahead in the count, hunting specifically for stuff middle-up he can drive, and he can get away with that because he so rarely whiffs with two strikes. If Stewart keeps getting stronger, and perhaps tries to pull a few more pitches, he’ll be an easy 20-homer guy with high OBPs, which makes him a solid regular at first and a borderline star if he can just stay at third base.

    2023 Ranking: 86

    Mauricio tore his ACL in winter ball, so he is likely to miss most, if not all, of the 2024 season, which is a shame on two levels — he had a shot at regular playing time in Queens, and he needs at-bats to keep developing. Even though he reached the majors last year, he remains an unfinished product on both sides of the ball. The ball comes off Mauricio’s bat much harder than you’d expect from his frame, but he has very strong wrists and generates a ton of bat speed, hitting a ball 117 mph in the majors and averaging just over 90 mph on his batted balls at the level. If he had any sort of plate discipline, he’d be a top-10 prospect, but he chases stuff out of the zone, especially offspeed, way too often, and can’t make up for it even with a decent rate of contact on those pitches. Major-league pitchers who can throw stuff just off the plate or just above/below the zone will have a field day with him until he tightens up his command of the zone — and that will only happen with more time in the batter’s box. He’s a natural shortstop but too erratic to play there in the majors. He looked promising at second base in the majors, and he could probably handle third if he got more time there, with only 22 professional games, a third between the minors and winter ball, in his career. He always had some volatility because of the lack of polish in his game, and now he’s losing up to a year of playing time, but I still hold out hope he can be an above-average regular at his peak — maybe just later than we’d otherwise thought.

    2023 Ranking: 39

    It was not the MLB debut Stone or the Dodgers were hoping for, as the team’s fifth-round pick from 2020 was hit hard in 31 innings, with major-league hitters all over his fastball and his supposed out pitch, his changeup, which was extremely effective all the way up through Triple A. The changeup wasn’t quite as devastating as it had been in the minors, but it appears he was tipping the pitch as well, allowing a 45 percent hard-hit rate with the pitch in the big-league stint. That in turn allowed hitters to look fastball, and his four-seamer, which was 93-95 mph but has never had a ton of movement, was close to useless. He’s a lot better than that, by his stuff and by his minor-league results, where his changeup would generate whiff rates near 50 percent or better at every level. He’s got at least an average fastball and slider with a changeup that looked like it’d be a 70 before major-league hitters deemed it somewhat unworthy of that grade. His debut was concerning, but I’m not giving up on his promise after such a small sample.

    2023 Ranking: Just missed

    Gonzalez went to the Twins in the January trade that sent Jorge Polanco to Seattle, the one significant prospect heading to Minnesota in that swap. Gonzalez offers some real upside with the bat if he can stop swinging at everything within a half-mile of the strike zone. He’s up there to do damage and has such good hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel that he can hit pitches anywhere in the zone and, to some extent, just outside of it, so he swings early and often. He mashed in Low A, hitting .348/.403/.530 with just a 13.7 percent strikeout rate. When he reached High A, however, pitchers exploited his tendency to chase outside the zone, and he slipped to .215/.290/.387 — still showing power and hard contact, but also swinging at more than a third of non-strikes he saw. His contact quality improved last year over 2022, and he did hit for more power (ISO .147 to .178), although that has to continue to improve so he can get to that 25+ homer range, as he’s a below-average runner and will be limited to a corner outfield spot. There’s above-average upside here given the pure hit ability and potential for 60 or better power; with his defensive limitations and the odds that he’ll never walk 50 times in a season, though, he has to get there to be more than an extra outfielder.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Meadows reached the majors last year and gave a pretty good indication of the kind of player he’ll be in a larger sample — plus defense in center, plus speed, some power, some walks, enough swing and miss to keep him from being a star. A second-round pick in 2018, Meadows — the younger brother of former Tigers outfielder Austin Meadows — had big tools as a high schooler but had a huge hitch in his swing that made it hard for him to get to the ball on time, and he had OBPs below .300 for his first three seasons in pro ball. The Tigers helped him get rid of the big hitch before 2022 and he’s been a different hitter since then, with a .340 OBP across the past two seasons thanks to much better results on balls in play along with a small bump in his walk rates. He’s every bit of 6-5 and has a big strike zone, so there’s going to be some swing and miss, but he doesn’t chase excessively and he makes enough contact in-zone to get to a .240ish average and 15-20 homers a year. His glove and arm were worth 5 runs above average by Statcast last year in less than a quarter of a season, and I believe he’s going to be worth +10 or more if he gets to play 150 games out there this year. Big velocity might end up his main weakness and the obstacle to him becoming a 4+ win player; the defense gives him a great foundation and even if he punches out 30 percent of the time, something he’s never done in the minors, he’d still be a soft regular with the other tools he brings to the table.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    The Yankees signed Arias in January 2022 for a $4 million bonus, their largest bonus since they signed Jasson Domínguez in 2019 for $5.1 million, which was the largest bonus the team has ever given to an international amateur free agent. Arias may not be from Mars, but he turned in a very strong stateside debut last year, hitting .267/.423/.505 in the Florida Complex League last year as an 18-year-old with a 22 percent strikeout rate, well below the league average of 27 percent. It’s outstanding bat speed for an 18-year-old, especially from the left side, where his hands go from 0 to 60 in a flash, although I worry that he’s got a bit of a grooved, uphill swing that’s going to prevent him from squaring up the ball as often as he should. He’s an easy plus runner who should stay at shortstop, with a plus arm that plays up even above that because he’s got such a quick transfer and release; there’s some question of whether his body will stay lithe enough for the position, although the consensus leans toward not just remaining at short but becoming an above-average one. He’s farther from the majors than some of the Yanks’ more famous prospects, but other than Domínguez he may offer the most upside between offense and defense of anyone in the system.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    I guess it wouldn’t be a top-100 without at least two Dodgers catching prospects on it. Liranzo is their latest phenom behind the plate, a switch-hitter who hit .273/.400/.562 in Low A last year with a 26.7 percent strikeout rate, better from the left side, with power either way. He’s got a big frame with plus bat speed already. He’s likely to end up with 30+ homer power as he gets ever stronger. He will have to work to stay agile enough behind the plate, where right now he’s a work in progress, showing enough aptitude even though he’s not very fluid in his actions when receiving or blocking. If he were a sure-thing catcher, he might be a top-50 prospect because the power is real and he’s got an idea at the plate. He’ll move to High-A Great Lakes this year, and the Midwest League is a lesser hitters’ environment than the Cal League, so we’ll get a better read on how advanced his approach is along with seeing how the catching progresses. The high-walks, high-power upside in a switch-hitting catcher could make him shoot up this list in a year.

    2023 Ranking: Unranked

    Gilbert was Houston’s first-round pick in 2022 out of the University of Tennessee, then headed to the Mets in the Justin Verlander trade this past July along with power-hitting prospect Ryan Clifford. Gilbert’s the more advanced player of the two and took off after the trade, hitting .325/.423/.561 for Double-A Binghamton after scuffling for the Astros’ Double-A affiliate, Corpus Christi, the previous two months. Those struggles are probably just noise but did end up changing how his season looked overall — especially against lefties, where he had a decent platoon split in the first half but ended the year with a slightly higher OPS against southpaws. Gilbert’s a 55 or 60 defender in center, depending on who you ask, with an easy plus arm — he was a two-way player in high school — that would allow him to move to right, where he should be a 65 or 70 defender if he has to do it. He’s a hitter with a little pop, the opposite of the trend towards power-over-hit guys, and that’s even with his occasional tendency to try to pull pitches he should just go with rather than sacrificing some hit for power. He’s been a fan favorite already in the minors for his all-out style of play, which I expect to carry over to the majors when they see his 5-9 frame flying all over the field. At worst, he’s a fourth/platoon outfielder who can play all three spots, but after that strong finish I feel much better about him hitting lefties enough to play every day and hit .280-.300 with a walk rate over 10 percent and 15ish homers a year, whether that’s as an above-average defender in center or an easy plus one in right.

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    (Photo illustration by Sean Reilly / The Athletic: From left to right Paul Skenes / Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images; Jackson Holliday / Justin Berl / Getty Images; Jackson Chourio / David Durochik / Diamond Images via Getty Images; Ethan Salas / Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)



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  • Gary Sheffield, one of baseball’s great offensive forces, is still defending his reputation

    Gary Sheffield, one of baseball’s great offensive forces, is still defending his reputation

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    However you perceive Gary Sheffield — icon or problem child, steroid user or public-opinion victim — one image almost certainly springs to mind. It’s that waggling bat, the pulsating motion that for 22 seasons radiated so much swagger.

    Through eight teams, nine All-Star nods, steroid allegations and a list of other microcontroversies too long to count, Sheffield’s signature stance served as an active reminder of just who his opponents — and everyone else — were dealing with.

    Talk with Sheffield now, in the days before Hall of Fame voting is revealed in his final year on the ballot, and there are moments when one can practically feel that bat waving through the phone.

    “Trying to change your reputation, then you’re splitting hairs,” Sheffield says, responding to a question about why controversy seems to follow him. “So why bother? My thing became, why bother? I am who I say am, and I’m gonna say who I am.”

    On the surface, he remains unapologetically himself in a way only Gary Sheffield can. Dig a little deeper, and dichotomies emerge. Fifteen years after his playing career ended, Sheffield’s takes on the Hall, and his exclusion from it thus far, whirl between defiant disregard and a yearning for acceptance.

    “You don’t want me in the Hall of Fame, I’m not offended,” Sheffield says in one breath.

    In another: “Of course it (bothers me),” he says. “No question about it. I put in the work. I’m a Hall of Famer. I was a Hall of Famer since the day I was born. OK?”

    This is the crux Sheffield faces. He may say he does not care. But how could he not? The Hall of Fame is his life’s work boiled down to one yes-or-no verdict. If Sheffield seems bound by conflicting emotions on that subject, well, that’s familiar territory for a man who has always been defined by his contradictions.


    This is Gary Sheffield’s 10th and final year on the Hall of Fame ballot. (Mark Cunningham / MLB Photos via Getty Images)

    “Gary is actually a very shy, sensitive person,” Doc Gooden said of his nephew way back in 1996. “He might come across as a tough guy who doesn’t let anything bother him. But I know he cares what people think about him.”

    Oh yeah, Sheffield cares what people think. He still catalogs every slight, real or perceived. Last year he received 55 percent of the vote from baseball writers. His total has inched upward but is still far from the 75 percent threshold needed for induction.

    By the numbers, Sheffield appears to have a worthy Hall of Fame resume. There’s the 509 home runs, the 60.5 WAR, the JAWS score (a metric that measures Hall of Fame worthiness) that ranks above 13 right fielders already in Cooperstown as players. The detractions, though, have always loomed larger for the electorate — mostly, the ties to performance-enhancing drugs.

    Zoom out, though, and Sheffield’s case is confounding. All these years later, one of a generation’s greatest offensive forces remains on the defensive.


    You probably know the voice (loud), the personality (bold) and the play style (intimidating). But understanding Sheffield beyond the bat wag requires probing into a few of the stories not everyone knows. He chuckles through his nostrils as he tells one of these: When Sheffield was a child, he once asked his mother why he did not have siblings.

    “She said I was difficult enough,” Sheffield says, “so she didn’t need no more.”

    In the Belmont Heights neighborhood of Tampa, Gooden — the pitcher who would go on to stardom and then lose it all in the grip of drugs — famously served as a de facto older brother. He and Sheffield even shared a room for a while. But the truth is Sheffield’s earliest years did not involve the company of other children. Later, growing up on the edge of a tough area, his parents kept the rules tight. No staying the night at friend’s houses. No being out after dark.

    “I was lonely at times,” Sheffield says.

    Perhaps that is why now, 15 years into retirement, Sheffield still spends so much time alone. He cherishes his wife and children. He’s even a grandfather. But aside from family, his preferred state is solitude. Picture Sheffield, the man best known for his outspoken nature and authoritative play, burrowed in a man cave detached from his Tampa home. He watches football and basketball. Smokes his cigars.

    “Being an only child,” he said, “you treasure being by yourself.”

    For over two decades, he was a menace in the batter’s box. But in many ways, Sheffield is still a loner searching for a place.

    And with his Hall of Fame candidacy in the hands of baseball writers for a final time, Sheffield has been making the media rounds lately. The interviews are as interesting as ever. They also lead Sheffield to a familiar paradox.

    “I don’t go around just talking,” Sheffield says. “That’s the craziest thing I ever hear. ‘There go Gary again.’ Well, there go a writer calling and asking me a question. You see what I’m saying?”

    Listen to him speak, and the dualities pop up everywhere. Much of his rhetoric toes a line between profound and opaque.

    “You can ask me anything,” Sheffield says. “If you saw me pissing around the corner and you told the police, I would say, ‘Yeah, I was pissing around the corner.’ That’s who I am.

    “So when you say, ‘Oh, well, he’s pissing around the corner, I’m gonna put it in the media and blast it everywhere,’ you think you’re embarrassing me because you said I was pissing around the corner?’ You’re not embarrassing me.

    “I’ll say, ‘Yeah, I was pissing around the corner.’ You can’t embarrass me. And that’s the deal.”

    Over the years, there was drama with managers. And executives. And Barry Bonds. Sheffield will gladly rehash any of it: the unfounded tale of him purposely making errors in Milwaukee, the reason he waived a no-trade clause and went from the Marlins to the Dodgers, the media kerfluffles in New York regarding playing alongside Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. “One thing about my memory,” he says, “I got photographic memory, when it comes to me.”


    When in New York, Gary Sheffield was part of a series of star-studded lineups. (Al Bello / Getty Images)

    It has all led to a label that too often gets attached to athletes who say exactly what is on their mind: misunderstood.

    In 1991, Sheffield hired Marvet Britto as his publicist. Britto’s job was essentially to help promote the positive aspects of Sheffield’s brand. But as Britto explains it, that meant becoming “the most critical person in his life.”

    “I felt that many of the writers tried to make Gary Sheffield fit into a template rather than accept who Gary Sheffield was born to be,” Britto said. “It takes a certain amount of emancipating your voice to truly deliver the authenticity of who you were born to be. Very few people have the courage to do that.”

    Britto, then, says she never wanted to silence Sheffield. Her agency worked instead to amplify his voice into one of authority.

    Today, Britto says, she and Sheffield remain like family. Big Sis, Sheffield called her in the acknowledgments of his book.

    “When you don’t put in the work to try to understand someone, then you misunderstand them,” Britto said. “No one came from where Gary Sheffield came from who wrote about the sport. That was also part of the problem. So, therefore, the storytelling was always not reflective or written with the cultural fluency that was necessary to interpret who this player was, and why this player may have been communicating in a way in which (he was) communicating. That takes a certain level of cultural fluency, and it takes a certain level of work.”

    Listen closely as Sheffield unpacks his career and the Hall of Fame conundrum, and there are breadcrumbs there, left by someone who is not shy about voicing his desire to finally be understood.

    “I’m helping educate you on me,” he says. “So you understand me. If you got a question about something that you come up with later, you can say, ‘I can put two and two together,’ because I can explain him.”

    He talks proudly about how he thrives under duress. “When everybody is praising me and saying, ‘Good job,’ and all that, that’s when I screw up,” he says. Attempting to put that aforementioned two and two together, perhaps this meant he conditioned himself for chaos. If being alone is his preferred state, swirling in turmoil might be a close, subconscious second. “Sheffield is not hard to approach,” the Tampa Bay Times wrote in 1998. “He’s just hard to figure out.”

    Sheffield frames it differently.

    “My uncle allowed the New York Mets to tell him what to say, what to think and how to go about it,” Sheffield said. “I refused to do that, because I think that’s what drove him to drugs. Because he wasn’t being his authentic self.

    “When you hold things in, it eats at you. You have to look yourself in the mirror, and you have to live with yourself.”


    Sheffield has talked a lot lately about the time he used “the cream.” He was training with Barry Bonds, a venture that lasted only a few weeks before their personalities clashed. Sheffield was coming off knee surgery. He had cysts, and surgeons went in through the back of the knee to remove them. He returned to the gym quickly, at Bonds’ urging. One day the stitches busted. Sheffield started bleeding. All over the gym, he says. Someone from the gym, he says, handed him some cream to help stop the bleeding.

    “It was really an ointment,” he says. “It was like a thick-based ointment to stop the bleeding.”

    In a recent interview with USA Today, Sheffield said he used the cream only once. But Sheffield has urged Hall of Fame voters to “do their homework,” so there is a bit more to discuss here. Sheffield purchased vitamins from BALCO, he says, but never anything he knew was steroids. After the falling out, Sheffield says his wife wrote BALCO a check for $146 to cover the vitamins. The book “Game of Shadows” — considered a seminal text on the inner workings of the steroid era — says the check was for $430. The lone chapter centered on Sheffield concludes with this line: “The cost to his reputation would be much greater.”

    Next thing Sheffield knew, he was testifying before a grand jury. He was granted immunity, there not as a suspect but rather to discuss Bonds. In a 2004 Sports Illustrated article, Sheffield detailed using “the cream” on his leg every night, a way of healing the scars. The scar cream, he says now, was “something totally different” from what he was given in the gym. 

    “It was like you could go to a store and find something like that,” he said then. “I put it on my legs and thought nothing of it. I kept it in my locker. The trainer saw my cream.”


    Gary Sheffield’s connection with Barry Bonds landed him in the Mitchell Report, with repercussions to this day. (Eliot Schechter / Getty Images)

    Sheffield, it should be noted, was among the first MLB players to speak out against steroids. It was 2000 when he went on HBO’s “Real Sports” and alleged “six or seven” members of every team were juicing. He still swears he never knowingly used any performance-enhancing substance. His willingness to explain his involvement alone differentiates him from many suspected users.

    “Game of Shadows” also cites a January 2002 drug calendar from trainer Greg Anderson that reflected Sheffield’s use of human growth hormone and testosterone. Sheffield says it’s not true. “That’s all fabricated,” he says. He’s still angered about the fact he was included in the Mitchell Report, a 409-page investigation released in 2007. His mentions in the report link him to Anderson and cite passages from Sheffield’s book, “Inside Power,” in which he denied steroid use. The section of the report related to Sheffield otherwise did not include any explosive revelations. Sheffield still bristles over the fact no one interviewed him for that report. Page 169 of the Mitchell Report, however, states Sheffield initially declined an interview request, then was later unable to schedule an interview because of his attorney’s health issues. 

    Take all that for what it’s worth — that is the extent of what we know about Sheffield and steroids. And even as we get further removed from the stain of the Steroid Era, even as other names linked to PEDs, such as David Ortiz, have been enshrined in Cooperstown, these allegations have helped keep Sheffield out of the Hall of Fame.

    “Nothing has ever been proven,” Britto said. “How do you continue to just make assumptions about someone and let that become a part of their narrative? That’s why he had to defend himself.”

    Sheffield’s case otherwise is compelling. He was a nine-time All-Star, a five-time Silver Slugger. He won a batting title and, in an era where so many were juicing, finished in the top six of MVP voting in four different seasons.

    His WAR and subsequent HOF metrics would be even higher if not for his greatest flaw as a player: poor outfield defense. Even now, Sheffield still laments his early-career moves from shortstop to third base, from third base to outfield. Sheffield’s career WAR of 60.5 is still higher than players such as Harmon Killebrew, Vladimir Guerrero, Willie Stargell and Ortiz.

    Sheffield nonetheless received only 11.7 percent of the vote his first year on the ballot.

    His potent personality has long been a lightning rod, but it is also part of the Sheffield allure. Britto said she recently attended a golf tournament with Sheffield, where children far too young to have ever watched him play would approach and mimic his waving bat.

    “To me,” Britto said, “that is the connective tissue that baseball should want.”

    Now he is finally gaining more support. As of Jan. 18, he has appeared on 74 percent of writer’s ballots so far made public. That score tends to drop once all ballots are revealed, however, and most ballot observers seem to think he faces long odds to clear the 75 percent threshold in his final year. 

    Former manager Jim Leyland, who will be inducted in Cooperstown next summer, is among Sheffield’s supporters.

    “This is a pretty simple one,” Leyland said of what makes Sheffield a Hall of Fame player. “I think there was quite a long period of time that Gary Sheffield was the most feared right-handed hitter in baseball.”


    “It’s funny,” Sheffield says. “I’ve been retired 13, 14 years. I just started reflecting on my career.”

    He is finally reminiscing, he says, because things are finally slowing down. Sheffield knows he’s talking about “rich people problems” here. But until two years ago, he had never had one residence in his adult life. Early in his career, he submerged himself in the star lifestyle — the cars and the clothes, the money and the women. He would travel around the country, smacking baseballs everywhere he went. Then he’d go skiing in Aspen. Then he’d go to his residence in the Bahamas. Then home to Tampa. Every season and offseason followed a regimented plan.

    “It’s more sane,” he said of his life now. “It’s simpler.”

    Once, back in 1996, his mother told Sports Illustrated women were his biggest weakness. He married Deleon Richards, a gospel singer, in 1999. He talks often about how that relationship changed his life. They’ve been together 26 years. He’s proud of it. 

    “When you got a spouse, you make it work and you find the good qualities in that person,” Sheffield says. “And when it’s not so good, you can still love that person. I think it’s a beautiful thing. It helps you understand how to love other people even more.”

    When they were setting up their permanent home, Sheffield did not want any of his baseball memorabilia on display. Deleon encouraged him to put it all in the man cave. He has a tug-and-pull relationship with baseball like that. “I don’t miss playing at all,” he says. “Zero.” In 2021, he talked about how he struggles to watch the modern game. But one of his sons, Gary Jr., works in sports media. Another, Jaden, plays baseball at Georgetown. Garrett Sheffield spent last year playing in an independent league. Noah, a class of 2024 prospect, is committed to Florida State. Christian, a class of 2026 player, is on a similar track.

    “At points in my life I hated the fact my kids wanted to entertain playing major-league baseball because of what I went through,” Sheffield says. “I didn’t want them dealing with that.”

    At last, though, he is really thinking back on the good and the bad of it all. He has studied those players who have gotten into the Hall of Fame. He will not name names, but he sees others who — though they were excellent players — don’t have quite his accomplishments. He knows what people say. Consumes it all.

    “There’s guys that failed tests,” Sheffield said. “There’s guys that have been accused. There’s guys that have been a lot of things. All the things they said about me, they’re already in there.

    “And then they’ll talk about numbers. 500 home-run markers, 3,000-hit markers. There’s guys in there without them. So that means my numbers are better than all of it. So what do I think of it? … If I say what I think of it, it becomes, ‘Oh, he said this.’ Well, why did I say this? Because my numbers are better.”

    This has become personal, too, Sheffield says, because of the way his wife and children perceive the Hall of Fame conundrum. “They want this so bad for me,” Sheffield says. “That don’t mean I don’t want it. That means they want it from a different perspective.”

    From his own perspective, he earned this, and that leaves him both speaking of his desire to be enshrined in Cooperstown, and at other times dismissing the impending ballot reveal. “At the end of the day,” he said, “I come to realize it’s a popularity contest, and who (the writers) want to be in gets in.”

    Those around him have watched that push-and-pull playing out, seen the conflict in him.

    “The duality of that answer is he’s human, and he has a heartbeat,” Britto said. “Him not being in the Hall of Fame … his numbers warrant it, his pedigree warrants it, everything about Gary Sheffield from a data and metric and visibility and skill perspective warrants it. However, him not being in it, to him, feels deliberate.”

    If Sheffield is not inducted this time, he could lean into his reputation and proudly bask in his own exclusion. That would be a fitting ending.

    It just would not be the whole truth.

    “I only want what’s rightfully mine, and that’s it,” Sheffield said. “And that’s the Hall of Fame.”

    (Top photo of Sheffield in 2022: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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  • Baseball Hall of Fame ballots: The Athletic's voters explain their selections

    Baseball Hall of Fame ballots: The Athletic's voters explain their selections

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    Look, we get it.

    The Baseball Hall of Fame is a breathtaking idea. It’s a celebration. It’s a history lesson. It’s a pilgrimage. The museum in Cooperstown is home to heroes and memories and the posters on our walls. The very notion can fill a fan with wonder, and actually being there feels like going to church, and the Louvre, and Game 7 of the World Series, all at once.

    And so, we care a great deal about who gets in and who does not. Passion and debate come with the territory. In press boxes and clubhouses and postgame hotel bars, we debate these decisions among ourselves. We get it.

    You’re not going to agree with all of our ballots. You’re not supposed to. This process is built around people with different opinions coming to an overwhelming consensus without establishing a definitive answer to what makes a Hall of Famer.

    This year, I’m serving as president of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, and I’m confident that the vast majority of my colleagues view Hall of Fame voting as one of the great privileges and responsibilities of the job. It’s an honor to play a role in the process. It takes 10 years of BBWAA membership to become a Hall of Fame voter, and last year 389 ballots were submitted. It takes a 75 percent majority for a player to be elected. Each ballot, therefore, is a tiny piece — a little more than one-quarter of 1 percent — of the final product. We all have our say, but no one person tips the scales. The process is built on differing opinions.

    Here, we’ve collected some of the ballots — and some of the internal thinking — of many of The Athletic’s Hall of Fame voters. As you can see, we disagree even among ourselves. That’s the way it’s supposed to work. — Chad Jennings


    Adrián Beltré is headed toward first-ballot election. But who will join him from this class? (Jesse Beals / Icon SMI /Icon Sport Media via Getty Images)

    Daniel Barbarisi’s ballot

    Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Billy Wagner

    Looking at Mauer’s career numbers in aggregate — .306/.388/.439, 143 homers, 428 doubles, amassed over 923 games at catcher, 603 at first base, 310 at DH — it strikes me that he is one of those odd cases where the whole isn’t actually greater than the sum of its parts. The whole is excellent in its own right — those are good numbers. They’re even Hall of Fame numbers, with the right context. But they don’t fully do justice to the individual pieces that comprise it, those superlative seasons early in his career that couldn’t possibly have come from a man playing his position.

    Remember what a unicorn he was? Back when he was hitting .328 and .347 and then finally .363 as a catcher, with respectable-to-excellent slugging through that whole period. Mauer and the obviously dissimilar stolen base threat Jason Kendall are always paired up a bit in my mind because they both reside in the neighborhood of “Guys who do things catchers aren’t supposed to do.”

    And then he stopped doing so many of those things, and stopped being a catcher really at all, and without that all-important context for a while it felt like everybody had been robbed of watching something special; Mauer at first base was a pale imitation. Safe to say we didn’t understand head injuries well enough then, certainly still don’t, but it’s hard not to wonder how long he could have kept up that brilliant production from the catcher’s spot if injuries hadn’t been an issue.

    Grading on a curve when it comes to injuries is tricky — who’s to say what this or that player could have been if it were not for some injury or another, and so it’s cleaner just to say what they actually were. But in Mauer’s case, that’s clear: a special hitter and excellent defensive catcher and pitch framer whose numbers put him among the very best to ever play a demanding position. To me, that’s an easy vote. My semi-informed guess is that Mauer doesn’t get in this year, but hopefully his time is coming soon, if only for a chance to remember how high the highs were.

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    Twins great Joe Mauer on the cusp of Hall of Fame with surprising support


    Daniel Brown’s ballot

    Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley, Billy Wagner

    As a fan of the Hall of Fame Tracker operated by Ryan Thibodaux (aka @NotMrTibbs on X), I’ve seen how his followers hate “drops” — voting for a player one year but not the next. The justifiably snarky joke is, “I guess (candidate) had a terrible year.” Har-har. For the record, I plan on voting for Bobby Abreu again next year, as he ranks 21st all-time in JAWS among right fielders, sandwiched between Hall of Famers Dave Winfield (20th) and Vladimir Guerrero (22nd). But I dropped Abreu this year as part of some strategic voting. There are players who need every checked box they can get to clear the 75 percent threshold (Sheffield, Wagner) and others who need to generate momentum as their years on the ballot wane. I surprised myself by voting so enthusiastically for Utley, but his JAWS ranks 12th all-time among second basemen and his WAR-7 (the sum of a player’s seven best WAR seasons) trails only Rodriguez among players on the ballot this year.


    Steve Buckley’s ballot

    Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner

    The early returns suggest Beltrán won’t be getting into the Hall of Fame this year. That’s the bad news for those of us who believe he belongs in Cooperstown. The good news? He’ll likely get the call in the next two, three or four years. And he darned well better get that call, or else I’m going to be setting a world record for being a broken record.

    As I wrote last year, and will do so again next year, Beltrán has already been punished for his role in the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal. And the punishment was a whopper: Hired later to manage the New York Mets, he never even made it to spring training. When the sign-stealing verdict came in, Beltrán was out as manager of the Mets.

    A.J. Hinch, former Astros manager, sat out during a one-year suspension and then was hired to manage the Detroit Tigers. Alex Cora, the former Astros bench coach who in 2018 managed the Red Sox to a World Series championship, also was handed a one-year suspension after he had already stepped away as Boston’s manager via one of those mutual-parting-of-ways deals.

    But Red Sox upper management was practically in tears after making the announcement, all but telegraphing that Cora would be back in 2021. Which is exactly what happened.

    Fair enough. Hinch and Cora paid dearly, even if, OK, their punishment was sitting out the 2020 pandemic season. By whatever means one measures their culpability and the ensuing punishments, they should have been invited to return.

    And yet here’s Beltrán, stuck in Fly Creek — which is my way of saying he’s just outside of Cooperstown. (Fly Creek, N.Y., is only a few miles from Cooperstown.)


    Carlos Beltrán amassed 70.1 WAR in his 20-year career. (Bryan Yablonsky / Getty Images)

    Admittedly, we could remove the cheating scandal from the discussion and Beltrán would not be a Willie Mays-like Hall of Fame lock. But he combined power (435 home runs) with speed (312 stolen bases), won three Gold Glove awards, had 70.1 career WAR according to Baseball Reference (identical to Hall of Famers Gary Carter and Scott Rolen), and … let’s stop there because, again, it’s not stats that are keeping Beltrán out of the Hall. It’s bats, or whatever the Astros were using when they banged on trash barrels to pass along the other teams’ signals.

    A year ago, I characterized the Astros’ sign-stealing caper as something you might have expected in a 1930s “Little Rascals” short but not in big-league baseball. This year I’m breaking up the routine by suggesting it was something you might have seen in a 1930s Marx Brothers movie, only with Harpo squeezing some kind of horn to relay the signals, and actor Edgar Kennedy as MLB commissioner Rob Manfred doing a slow burn after discovering the scheme. Now unless your name is Ben Mankiewicz of Turner Classic Movies, you probably have no idea what I’m talking about. But that’s the entire point: What the Astros did was something out of old-timey Hollywood slapstick, and it cheapened the game.

    Beltrán paid a price for that. He shouldn’t have to pay for the rest of his life.


    Marc Carig’s ballot

    Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner

    My holdovers from last year include Sheffield, Beltrán, Jones, Helton, and Wagner, the ahead-of-his-time strikeout machine. Both Mauer and Beltré got my vote in their first year of eligibility. Beltré’s inclusion is about as clear-cut as it gets. And upon reflection so was Mauer’s. Though injury forced him to first base for the end of his career, Mauer dominated during his prime as a catcher. He racked up six All-Star appearances, three batting titles and an American League MVP — feats made more impressive because he did this all while still toiling behind the dish.

    Not on the list for now: Chase Utley. With 1,885 hits, Utley finished short of the 2,000-hit mark that serves as a bit of an unofficial threshold for entry into Cooperstown. He also didn’t rack up the accolades (Gold Gloves, MVPs, etc.) that you’d expect from a Hall of Famer. That said, Utley’s career arc was atypical. Also, his peak seasons at second base were awfully impressive. Utley was just short of inclusion. Of course, I once felt that way about Jones, Helton and Wagner.

    Over time, I reconsidered. I suspect that one day this might also be the case with Utley.

    Two candidacies I am unlikely to reconsider: Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez. While other players have been the subject of whispers and speculation regarding steroid use, I put Rodriguez and Ramirez in a distinct category. Both served multiple suspensions for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy, and both ran afoul of those rules after the sport’s reckoning with PEDs. In my mind, this is different from mere whispers and speculation, or even being named in a report.


    Chad Jennings’ ballot

    Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley, Billy Wagner, David Wright

    As a general rule, my Hall of Fame voting tends toward peak over longevity. Jones has always been an easy choice for me, and in the past I thought long and hard about Cliff Lee before deciding the peak was just too short to check his box. That personal preference probably explains much of my ballot this time around.

    With research, Mauer became an easier choice than even I expected, and my real-time belief that Utley was a Hall of Famer was only reinforced looking back at his 10-year run of excellence. I covered Utley in Triple A in 2003 and ’04, but I shouldn’t have. He lost two years on the front end of his career because the Phillies inexplicably would not commit to him. His career numbers should speak for themselves more than they do.

    Wright, though, was a hard one. His career was just so much shorter than the usual Hall of Fame standard. I left an open spot on my ballot for a week, reading, researching and asking friends for advice before I finally checked the box after seeing Thibodaux’s excellent Hall of Fame tracker had Wright far too close to falling off the ballot (if he received less than 5 percent of the vote). As with Abreu, I can’t say with absolute certainty that Wright belongs in Cooperstown, but I’m confident his inclusion would not diminish the Hall of Fame. For nine years, he was an essential part of the game, and he spent much of the next decade trying like hell to return from a back injury that just wouldn’t let up. When I take my sons to Cooperstown, I won’t hesitate to tell them his story alongside so many others who have been enshrined.

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    Stark: One-and-done? No! Why David Wright deserves a long look on the Hall ballot


    David O’Brien’s ballot

    Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, Billy Wagner

    When I checked a few days into January, there were four candidates named on at least 80 percent of writers’ Hall of Fame ballots that had been revealed, according to the tracker that Thibodaux and his staff update — Beltré, Helton, Mauer and Wagner, in that order.

    I voted for each of those four along with Jones (10 consecutive Gold Gloves while averaging 34 homers and 103 RBIs per season from 1998-2007), Beltrán and Utley.

    This will be my 30th year covering MLB as a beat writer, and I saw each of these players in his prime. That’s not to say I know more than any others who vote or more than attentive fans. But I know which players I saw who looked like future Hall of Famers, and by weighing my observations with copious statistics available on every player and also considering many discussions with players, coaches and managers about whom they believe to be Hall of Famers, I think I have a pretty good handle on which players are Cooperstown-worthy.

    I do, however, have a stronger anti-performance-enhancing drugs stance than some voters, and that’s caused the most difficult situation of my time as a voter: leaving Gary Sheffield off my ballot. To be clear, I covered Sheffield as a beat writer both when he played for the Marlins and the Braves, and I rank him with Chipper Jones and Freddie Freeman as the greatest hitters on any teams I’ve covered in my career. (Ronald Acuña Jr. will move into that group if he keeps up his current career pace, and perhaps surpass them all.)

    Sheffield has tremendous stats — first-ballot Hall stats — and I believe he would’ve been a Hall of Famer without PEDs. I also tend to believe him when he says that his use of steroid creams and whatnot while working out with Barry Bonds was more a dalliance — he says it was by accident, which I do find hard to believe — than the deep dive into PEDs that I’m convinced Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez and others took. But the fact that Sheffield was connected to PEDs in a report is enough to make me not vote for him, and he’ll likely fall short of 75 percent this year in his 10th and final year on the ballot.

    As much as I liked covering him and admired him as a player, I kept him off my ballot each year because if I made an exception for Sheffield, I can’t justify not doing so for some others. Then I’d also get caught up in weighing evidence and timelines and whether a player tested positive or used before or after MLB cracked down on PEDs. Fact is, using steroids without a prescription was illegal in the United States well before baseball created stiff penalties for it. Players always knew it was wrong to use them, that it was cheating, or else they would’ve done so openly. If they didn’t know it was cheating, they should have.


    Gary Sheffield is expected to fall short in his final year on the ballot. (Mark Cunningham / MLB Photos via Getty Images)

    Banging on trash cans as part of a team-wide sign-stealing scandal is one thing; Beltrán was great for nearly two decades before that 2017 season when the Astros cheated during home games of his age-40 season, the last and worst year of his career. He’s also paid a price, getting fired by the Mets before he’d managed even one game. But changing one’s actual body composition through banned substances, adding massive amounts of muscle early or midway through a career — or late in one’s career when it would normally be in decline — is another thing entirely.

    It allowed Bonds, already a great player before steroids, to become an otherworldly offensive machine from his mid-30s through age 42, and to rewrite and completely distort the record books, setting artificially enhanced marks that blew away many once-hallowed records, and making most career and single-season power-hitting standards all but meaningless, since most of those records will never be broken. That’s just wrong, and steroid enhancement should not be rewarded with a Hall of Fame vote.

    PED-implicated players are featured throughout the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown because it’s a museum and they were part of the game. And that’s fine. But it doesn’t mean they should have a bronze plaque there.


    C. Trent Rosecrans’ ballot

    Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley, Billy Wagner

    This is my 10th Hall of Fame ballot as a voter, a significant number for a pair of reasons:

    • Ten is the number of years it takes as an active BBWAA member to earn a Hall vote, which means I’ve been a member and voting as long as I was a member and not voting. That means I’m old. But it also means I’ve done this a time or two and I’ve more or less settled on a philosophy. On my first ballot, in 2015, I thought about trying to guess how others were voting and worried about the bottom of the ballot. That approach would mean I wouldn’t vote for no-doubt Hall of Famers Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson. The thought of not voting for them shaped my theory, which brings us to the other reason 10 is important …

    • The rule of 10. The Hall of Fame limits voters to 10 selections per ballot. This is not a BBWAA rule, but a Hall of Fame rule. As a group, the BBWAA has asked to either take away the governor or increase the limit. Both requests were denied by the Hall of Fame. That means the rule of 10 stands and it has been a major factor in all 10 of my ballots.

    So, with all that said, sorry Bobby Abreu. I believe Abreu is a Hall of Famer. I voted for him last year and in a perfect world, I’d have voted for him before (and after) then.

    Alas, there are just 10 spots. The process I’ve settled on is to rank the players and draw a line at 10. I don’t necessarily vote for all 10, but all those who pass that imaginary Hall of Fame line, whether it is after two or 15, get (or would get, if there were no rule of 10) a check mark.

    And so here we are. I’m not exactly sure where the Hall threshold should be, but I know Abreu is above the line and he’s No. 11 on my list, so no check mark.

    Like when voting for MVP, it seems like the bottom of the list is more difficult than the top (well, once you make a decision on PEDs — my belief is all that I know is what happened on the field and the numbers reflect that. While I know some players used PEDs, I don’t know if their competitors did. In the end, MLB still counts the games they played in and their results. So, yeah, Rodriguez was the best player in the game; he gets a check from me, as does Ramirez, like Bonds and Clemens before them).

    Anyway, there’s a strange line between Wagner — No. 10 on my list — and Abreu. It’s nearly impossible to compare a reliever and an outfielder, but that’s the exercise and in the end, there’s a leap of faith in my head that puts Wagner just ahead of Abreu, so Wagner gets a check and Abreu doesn’t. Yes, relievers and outfielders are apples and oranges, but the assignment is to compare apples, oranges, watermelons, grapes and the rest of the fruits. If neither player is elected this year, both should be on the ballot next year and it’s possible both get a check a year from now or neither do. That’s not because their careers have changed, but because the competition has. The Hall of Fame can stop this and employ the Binary Ballot (I’m not sure if Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has trademarked the idea of a simple yes/no vote for all players, but he should), but they haven’t yet and I don’t expect them to in the future.

    That’s where we are today, as I make my (left-handed) check marks on a piece of white paper.

    You can read all sorts of explainers on why a player deserves one of these check marks, and all are valid. I respect many points of view, but in the end, I lean on the theory that I am a voter, not a selector. I vote and I’d rather vote for someone worthy than not vote for someone worthy. Sadly, the rule of 10 takes that out of my hands. So, yeah, I’m sorry Bobby.


    Bobby Abreu connects for one of his 2,470 career hits. (George Widman / Associated Press)

    Eno Sarris’ ballot

    Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley, Billy Wagner

    In a sure-to-fail attempt at brevity, instead of addressing each of my votes, I thought I’d just bullet point the general thought process that begat the selections.

    • I believe in being at least as inclusive as we’ve been for previous generations. We’ve voted in fewer and fewer players as a percentage of the whole with every passing decade — down from 2 percent to 3 percent of the whole to around 1.5 percent, as Mike Petriello showed on MLB.com in 2020 — and no matter what you think of the modern game and its training methods, it doesn’t sit right with me to think that players are worse now.

    • I believe that before MLB had a testing policy in place in the 2004 season, league leadership was complicit in the steroid issue (the commissioner of the era, Bud Selig, is in the Hall of Fame, and that seems significant), and I’m more lenient toward players in that bucket. After testing was in place, players knew the stakes, and the numbers that I use to judge them are in question.

    • I believe in wins above replacement as a framework because it’s unique in its ability to bring together all facets of the game into one number. I also consult Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system because it considers the relationship between a player’s peak abilities and their longevity. I don’t believe batting average or hits (alone) are of outsized importance within the context of all the things a player can do, and stats like RBIs and runs are typically influenced by the team’s situation.

    • That said, I believe in offensive stats over defensive stats, since the former have been proven to be more reflective of true talent and the latter have only recently begun improving rapidly. A player like Jimmy Rollins — who was, by some measures, below average with the bat compared to the league when he was in it — has to have all-time elite defense to get my vote.

    • I believe league trends in player usage are pushing us away from the volume that used to give players the chance to rack up the traditional benchmarks. A starting pitcher without 250 wins, a position player without 2,000 hits — I’m just not sure these things bother me as much as they might have bothered other members of the electorate in the past.

    • I believe that relievers should be compared to relievers. In overall production, relievers pale against their counterparts. But if we ignore the position because of that fact, we dismiss a whole class of players who are currently throwing around half the innings in a given season.

    • I believe that a player can be an elite accumulator. Consider someone like Abreu, who, as some people rightly point out, was never a top-five player in the league — in one season. But by being so consistently excellent from 1998 to 2004, he was actually the fifth-best player over that time frame. Posting matters.

    Well, so much for being concise. I tried!

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    Rosenthal: Wander Franco situation shows risk in investing long-term in players in their early 20s


    Keith Law’s ballot: Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley


    Hall of Fame ballot columns from The Athletic

    Rosenthal: Why Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are both on my Hall of Fame ballot

    Kepner: Explaining my Hall of Fame ballot — a celebration of greatness

    Note: Jayson Stark’s ballot column will be published next week. 


    More Hall of Fame coverage

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    A distinguished dozen: Saluting the 12 newcomers to the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

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    Jim Leyland, Hall of Fame manager: 4 things we learned from the Contemporary Era election

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    Smoky hotel rooms, 10-minute tirades and fatherly advice: Jim Leyland’s managerial multitudes

    (Top image photos: Joe Mauer: Larry Goren / ICON SMI / Corbis/ Getty Images; Adrián Beltré: Jeff Gross / Getty Images; Carlos Beltrán: George Gojkovich / Getty Images)

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    The New York Times

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  • Ex-Dodgers Pitcher Julio Urías Won’t Be Charged With Felony Domestic Violence, DA Says – Update

    Ex-Dodgers Pitcher Julio Urías Won’t Be Charged With Felony Domestic Violence, DA Says – Update

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    UPDATED, 6:02 PM: The Los Angeles County District Attorney’s office said tonight that it won’t file felony domestic violence charges against former Los Angeles Dodgers star Julio Urías. The case, however, has been referred to the City Attorney’s Office for consideration of a possible misdemeanor prosecution.

    The pitcher, who became a free agent after his one-year Dodgers contract expired at the end of the 2023 season, was arrested September 3 outside BMO Stadium after a pro soccer game on suspicion of domestic violence. Read details of the case below.

    PREVIOUS UPDATE, September 4: Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Julio Urías was arrested late Sunday on felony domestic violence charges, according to published reports.

    This marks the second time that Urías, who is 27, has been detained for violence arrest in the last four years, says ESPN. After his arrest, Urías was released on a $50,000 bond. He’s expected in court on Sept. 27.

    The Los Angeles Times reports that the incident occurred earlier Sunday at the LAFC vs. Inter Miami soccer game at BMO Stadium in Exposition Park. Urías was one of the invited celebrity guests at the game featuring Lionel Messi.  

    The Dodgers released the following statement via X, formerly known as Twitter.

    In 2019, Urías was arrested on suspicion of domestic battery and was ultimately suspended for 20 games under the MLB’s domestic violence policy, even though he was ultimately not charged after witnesses saw him push a woman to the ground in the Beverly Center parking lot.

    ESPN reports that no MLB player has been suspended twice for violating the league’s domestic abuse policy since it went into effect in 2015. This is Urías last season under contract with the Dodgers; he’s becoming a free agent this winter.

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    Lynette Rice

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  • MLB's weirdest injuries of 2023, from a pool basketball mishap to a toilet setback

    MLB's weirdest injuries of 2023, from a pool basketball mishap to a toilet setback

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    Every year at this time, we marvel at the many creative ways baseball players find to make an appearance on the ever-popular Strange But True Injuries of the Year leaderboard.

    So we’d like to thank this year’s baseball population for … cooking breakfast … playing the piano … and doing their best to get in and out of their hotel bathroom safely. But you know what’s especially amazing? None of those mishaps even topped this list!

    Really? Yes, really. So here they come, the Strangest But Truest Injuries of 2023.

    First prize: Eye confess!

    We always award Injury of the Year bonus points to guys who manage to get hurt while they’re already hurt. So here’s to Rays relief warrior Pete Fairbanks, who couldn’t even cover up the Giannis imitation that got him into this mess.

    When Fairbanks met with the Rays’ media delegation in June after returning from a stint on the injured list with hip inflammation, he brought a dazzling black eye with him — and one of the great How I Did This stories of the 21st century.

    Turns out this could happen to you, too, if you try dunking on your 3-year-old in the pool.

    “I pulled the pool basketball hoop down onto my face after dunking on a 3-year-old,” Fairbanks confessed, “to kind of teach him an early lesson in life that, when you’re in the paint, you cannot be caught unawares underneath the rim.”

    To which we can only hope his son said: Send it in, Jerome!

    Second prize: It’s all the alarm clock’s fault!


    Yusei Kikuchi really needs his Z’s. (Rich Storry / USA Today)

    We’ve always thought of Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi as a sleeping giant.

    Little did we know!

    Why did he make an early exit from a great September start at Yankee Stadium? Because he cramped up, he said, after getting “only” 11 hours’ sleep — as opposed to his usual 12 to 14 hours. So he may not lead the league in shutouts. But what the heck. You have to love his chances of leading the league in shuteye. And if this is a sleep goal of yours, T-shirts are available!

    Third prize: When you (and your back) have gotta go

    When Diamondbacks third baseman Evan Longoria strained his back last July, he was supposed to miss only a week or so. So why did it turn into three weeks? Because, by his account, he aggravated his back getting up off the toilet in a hotel bathroom in San Francisco.

    So you thought making outs could be hazardous to a baseball player’s career, huh? Watch out for the outhouse!

    Fourth prize: There goes his walk ratio


    Tony Gonsolin walks off the mound, successfully, during a start in July. (Jerome Miron / USA Today)

    Need more proof that most spring training drills are overrated? Dodgers pitcher Tony Gonsolin headed off to a routine fielding drill during spring training last March — and got through the fielding part fine. Turns out it was his exit strategy that he should have been working on.

    He tripped walking off the field, sprained his ankle and missed the first four weeks of the season. But was it all worth it? He didn’t make an error all season!

    Fifth prize: They had plenty of time to be an even greater dad

    Finally, there were so many great moments in fatherhood this season … that led to not-so-great moments in trying to make it onto the field … so we’re rounding them up here. If their families print this and frame it, it should make for a lovely Father’s Day gift.

    Giants pitcher Anthony DeSclafani fractured his toe … playing the piano with his son!

    Adam Wainwright burned his finger … cooking breakfast for his son!

    Josh Donaldson sliced his thumb … while assembling a toy for his daughter!

    All that seems troublesome. But hey, at least they didn’t try dunking on their kids in the pool.


    The Year in Strange But True

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    The Year in Strange But True: MLB’s 20 most mind-blowing hitting and pitching feats of 2023

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    The Year in Strange But True: MLB’s Weirdest & Wildest teams and games of 2023

    (Top photo of Pete Fairbanks: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)

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  • The Year in Strange But True: MLB's 20 most mind-blowing hitting and pitching feats of 2023

    The Year in Strange But True: MLB's 20 most mind-blowing hitting and pitching feats of 2023

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    It’s the most wonderful time of the year … except for one thing:

    It’s no longer baseball season!

    But that’s where we come in. It’s our not-so-solemn duty to get you through these long, chilly, baseball-free months by helping you relive the best of the Strange But True baseball season of 2023. Don’t tell us you already forgot that …

    An unforgettable on-base streak ended even though the man who compiled that streak was standing on first base. … And we really did see a real human being steal third base and home on the same pitch. … And a team pitched a no-hitter despite the minor hindrance of also allowing seven runs — in the same inning!

    We’re not making any of that up. We spend the whole year keeping track of wacky stuff like this so you don’t have to. So join us now as we relive The Strange But True Feats of 2023 … in five parts. Today’s installment: the hitters … the pitchers … and that Shohei guy who apparently does both of the above!

    The Strangest But Truest Hitter of 2023: The Schwarbino


    Kyle Schwarber had 47 homers and 48 singles on the season. (Eric Hartline / USA Today)

    “Can you do me a favor?” Kyle Schwarber asked us one day in late September, though not totally seriously. “Can you write a story that tells people I actually had a good year?”

    Sure. Why the heck not? It can be hard to know what to make of a leadoff hitter who finished the season hitting .197 with 215 strikeouts. So allow the Strange But True Feats of the Year column to help with that. It beats calculating those December wind-chill factors.

    He’s the most unique leadoff monster of all time! Does it seem kinda Strange But True to see a team look at a .197 hitter who leads the league in strikeouts and decide: “Here’s a good way to win the World Series. Let’s have that guy lead off?”

    Well, that’s what the Phillies did with the Schwarbino. On one hand, it allowed him to become the first man in the modern era to roll up at least 500 leadoff plate appearances in a season in which his average never made it to the Mendoza Line. (Previous record for lowest full-season average: .211, by Eddie “Sparky” Lake, for the 1947 Tigers.)

    But wait. On the other hand, after the Phillies moved Schwarber into that leadoff spot to stay on June 2, they went 65-41 in games in which he led off. Which means they played like a 99-win team when he occupied the top slot in their lineup. So whatever. That worked! Here’s a perfect Strange But True example of how …

    He was a leadoff earthquake waiting to happen! For 108 games in 2023, Schwarber was the first Phillies hitter to step into the box. He got a hit to lead off exactly 21 of those games. He hit a single to lead off only six of those games. So you think that was a problem?

    Um, not so much. His OPS leading off games still wound up at 1.056. Does that sound good? It should, since it was merely the highest OPS, as the first batter of the game, in the history of a franchise that has been around since 1883 … because, apparently, all those leadoff walks (21) and leadoff Schwarbombs (11) can also be helpful. Which reminds us: If we just talk about his whiffs and his average, we’re leaving out some stuff!

    He was also Ruthian! You know what else apparently can be helpful? Piling up massive amounts of homers (47), RBIs (104), runs scored (108) and walks (126). You know who has had that season? Oh, only Babe Ruth (six times), Mark McGwire (twice), Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds and Aaron Judge (once). And also …

    Kyle Schwarber.

    Which meant even more all-time Strange But True stuff was possible. Such as …

    He was pretty much as productive as a guy who hit .306! Let the record show that, according to Baseball Reference, Schwarber finished with an OPS+ of 122. And how Strange But True is it for a guy who batted .197 to have an OPS that was still 22 percent better than league average? Well, it’s the highest OPS+ in history by a qualifying hitter whose average started with a “1.” So there’s that. But there’s also this:

    Bo Bichette in 2023 — .306 AVG, 123 OPS+
    Schwarber in 2023 — .197 AVG, 122 OPS+

    How can that be possible? Excellent question. I’m not in charge of OPS+ calculations, but I’m guessing it has something to do with this: The guy who hit .197, amazingly, had a higher on-base percentage (.343) than the guy who hit .306 (.339)! That can happen when one guy draws 99 more walks than the other guy. But nevertheless, here come more Schwarbarian shockers. …

    He hit .197 … and still led his team in runs scored! Does that seem hard to do? You should answer yes, because here’s the complete list of players since 1900 who have done that, on any team, with an average below .200, over any full season:

    Kyle Schwarber, 2023 Phillies
    List ends here — but not this list …

    He had 100 more whiffs (215) than hits (115) … but still led his team in runs scored! You’ll love the rundown of all the special offensive forces who have ever finished a season with at least 100 more strikeouts than hits:

    Adam Dunn (twice) … Joey Gallo (three times) … Chris Davis (2018) … and Schwarber (2023). What. A. Group. But … how many of those legendary whiffers also had 108 runs scored or led their team in runs (or both)? Here’s that complete list:

    Kyle Schwarber, 2023 Phillies
    List ends here

    Stay out of the WAR Zone — Not surprisingly, Schwarber says even his teammates had all kinds of fun messing with him over his wacky stat line.

    “There was a time,” he recalled fondly, “at some point this year, that I was a negative WAR player. So we were all laughing about that.”

    Hey, his good news was that, by season’s end, he did in fact climb out of that negative-WAR zone. The bad news was, thanks to glovemanship issues that the WAR gods couldn’t ignore, he climbed to a final figure of only 0.6 WAR. Which meant …

    Was it really possible for a man to mash 47 homers and surpass 100 RBIs and 100 runs scored, yet still be worth less than one win above replacement? Eh, we guess so. But had it ever appeared possible before? That would be no.

    Incredibly, the only previous, similar monster season to lead to a WAR number under 3.0 was produced by another Phillies masher of some renown — Ryan Howard, in 2008. Somehow, the Baseball Reference WAR room looked at that Howard season — which included a staggering 48 homers, 146 RBIs and 105 runs — and calculated that to be worth just 1.8 WAR. Clearly, WAR can be confusing like that sometimes.

    So in the end, did Kyle Schwarber care about his average or his whiffs or his WAR? Nope!

    “I mean, did I picture myself doing this, hitting what I’m hitting? No,” he said. “I’m the first to tell you it’s all kind of interesting. … But you know what? At the end of the day, for me, if we’re getting a win, I’m happy.”

    Our favorite Strange But True Ohtani-isms of 2023


    What can’t he do? Will Ohtani play quarterback next? (Kirby Lee / USA Today)

    It’s almost a reflex action to start every Strange But True column with the regularly scheduled Shohei Ohtani highlight reel. But since you’ve been treated to, like, 988 other Ohtani stories in the past week and a half, we’ll let him hit second in this lineup.

    Oh, and also: We’ve already dug deep into the wildness and weirdness of that $700 million contract … and compared him to Mookie Betts/Gerrit Cole … and reminded you how many consecutive hits he’d have to give up before his career batting average would drop below the average of Unhappy Hitters Who Have to Face Ohtani. So no need to do that again.

    Which means we can just use this space to shake our heads again over our favorite Strange But True Ohtani moments from 2023. Ready? So … on with the Shoh.

    He never stopped making Tungsten Arm O’Doyle jokes possible — Do we need to re-tell, for the final time, the origin of the hilarious saga of Ohtani/Tungsten Arm O’Doyle? OK, we’ll make it quick. It began two years ago, with this then-innocent tweet.

    Now, 2 trillion references later, Tungsten Arm O’Doyle can go down as one of the 21st century’s greatest fictitious legends. And Ohtani now can go up the freeway to Chavez Ravine to leave him in the dust. But in 2023, his last season in Orange County, the Angels kept Tungsten Arm on all of our radar screens, with stuff like this:

    • Opening day — Ohtani the pitcher: six shutout innings, 10 strikeouts. Ohtani the hitter: reaches base twice. Tungsten Arm subplot: Angels still lose, 2-1, because … Tungsten!

    • Aug. 18 — Ohtani the slammer: Hits a single in the first inning and whomps a grand slam an inning after that. Ohtani the teammate: Watches his team turn its first triple play since 1997 to keep this game tied in the ninth. Tungsten Arm subplot: Angels get an Ohtani slam and a game-saving triple play … and still lose to the Rays, 9-6, because … see above.

    • Sept. 3 — Ohtani the track star: Steals his 20th base of the season, in what turned out to be the final time he reached base this year. Ohtani the historian: Becomes the first man in National League/American League history to join the 20-Steal/10-Win Club since the unforgettable Adonis Terry did it for the 1890 Brooklyn Bridegrooms. Tungsten Arm subplot: Angels still lose, 10-6, to an Oakland team that was 54 games under .500, because, clearly, this was their final chance to get Tungsten Arm O’Doyle into the fake headlines … so the baseball gods demanded they make it count.

    Ohtani, the tri-cyclist — Back on May 9, 1918, someone named Babe Ruth went 5-for-5, with a triple, a single and three doubles, while pitching into extra innings before finally losing to Walter Johnson. The Babe never had another game with a single, double, triple and any pitches thrown. But on April 27, Ohtani had a game like that, in a win over Oakland. Here’s why we mention it:

    He was the first pitcher with a single, double and triple in any kind of game in 36 years (since Danny Darwin did it in 1987) — and only the third in the past six decades. You know who didn’t have any games with a single and double and triple this year, despite the fact that they weren’t distracted by having to throw a single pitch? Oh, only Ronald Acuña Jr., Mookie Betts, Julio Rodríguez, Bobby Witt Jr. and about 1,000 other guys who otherwise appear seriously multi-talented.

    Ohtani, the box-score filler-upper — Then there was June 27. Ohtani the pitcher: Faces 24 White Sox and strikes out 10 of them. Ohtani the hitter: Takes three swings all night … and gets three hits, two of them homers.

    Here, at no extra charge, is your handy-dandy list of dudes in the division-play era with a double-digit strikeout game and a multi-homer eruption in the same game: Rick Wise (1971), Madison Bumgarner (2017), Zack Greinke (2019) and … Ohtani.

    Ohtani, the 493-foot delivery man — Then, three days after that two-homer, 10-K game, a man who had a better strikeout ratio than Gerrit Cole this year launched a home run that was projected by Statcast at 493 feet, but actually, according to NASA scientists we just made up, reached Earth’s orbit. Don’t believe us? You can watch it! (And you should.)

    Ohtani, the all-time twin-bill king — Finally, what do you say we salute the greatest doubleheader performance in baseball history (as declared by Strange But True World HQ, acclaimed as the ultimate authority on this subject, as of two sentences ago)?

    July 27 in Detroit. Ohtani the pitcher: Throws a one-hit shutout in Game 1 of this doubleheader. Ohtani the hitter: Mashes two home runs in Game 2 of this doubleheader.

    Question from those of us who write Strange But True Feats of the Year columns: Who the heck does this? Who the heck has ever done this?

    The answer, according to the Elias Sports Bureau (via MLB.com’s resident Ohtani historian, Sarah Langs): That would be nobody, of course. How many men have ever thrown any kind of shutout in one game of a doubleheader and hit even one homer in the other game of a doubleheader? One man — named Shohei.

    But a one-hit shutout in Game 1 and two home runs in Game 2? That’s not something you would expect to see in the major leagues. That’s out of the Marvel Superhero League.

    Special bonus note from Langs: The last human before Ohtani who twirled a shutout in one game of a doubleheader and then started at any other position in the other game? George H. (Bambino) Ruth, on July 17, 1918. But no home runs for the Bambino that day!

    Christmas special Strange But True Ohtani video treat — What can’t Shohei Ohtani do? If you watch this video, it’ll be obvious that the answer is: Not a freaking thing.

    Our 10 favorite Strange But True Hitting Feats of 2023


    No fooling: Trayce Thompson had a day on April 1, but then what happened? (Jonathan Hui / USA Today)

    WITHOUT A TRAYCE — Just as we all expected, the first three-homer game of 2023 didn’t come rocketing off the bat of Aaron Judge or Matt Olson. Instead, it was the work of the Dodgers’ Trayce Thompson, a man whose brother (Klay) is slightly more famous for his 3-pointers than he is.

    Nevertheless, in his first start of the season, on April 1, Trayce became the first Dodger in history to stuff a grand slam, three-run homer and solo homer into the same box score … and then … to make sure columns like this remain in business … that same guy went 40 days between hits (April 19 to May 30) … batted .148 over the rest of the season … and hit as many big-league home runs over the next six months as he hit that one day … because baseball!

    THEIR SECOND FIRST ACT — In an April 13 visit to Yankee Stadium, the Twins just might have fired off the Strangest But Truest back-to-back homers ever. You know what their Nos. 1-2 hitters, Edouard Julien and Carlos Correa, did that day? They went back-to-back in the first inning. But that’s not the Strange But True part … because that has happened before.

    You know what had never happened before? That would be a team’s 1-2 hitters going back-to-back in the first inning … but not to lead off the game. Turns out it’s helpful to feats like this if their teammates work a convenient little nine-run first-inning bat-around into their busy schedule. Whaddaya know.

    FEEL THE PINCH — In baseball, as in life, it’s never just about how it starts. It’s about what happens when you enter the game. For more proof of that profound, age-old saying, which the great philosophers have been sharing since, oh, about half a paragraph ago, you should look at the 2023 stories of Elias Díaz and Andrew Knizner.

    • Elias Díaz is a catcher for the Rockies. He turned 33 years old last month. And since the rules required somebody on the Rockies to be an All-Star, that somebody was him.

    Remember his huge All-Star moment? How ’bout a game-winning, lead-flipping pinch home run to hand the NL the All-Star game. Awesome. But here comes the Strange But True part:

    Pinch-hit All-Star home runs — one … in one swing.

    Pinch-hit regular-season home runs … in 15 pro seasons, nine big-league seasons and 2,166 trips to the plate — zero!

    Timing truly is everything.

    • Andrew Knizner has spent most of his five-year big-league career as Yadi Molina’s backup catcher in St. Louis. But on May 17, quite the Strange But True plot line busted out. One minute, he was pinch running for Paul Goldschmidt (look it up!) in the eighth inning of a 9-1 game. Next minute, the Cardinals were batting around … and then this happened.

    What you just saw was A Man With No Position smoking a grand slam. And only two other players in the past 65 seasons have done that. One was Rajai Davis in 2008. The other (Gene Stephens) did it in 1959 after pinch running for Ted Williams. But that isn’t even the Strange But True part.

    The Strange But True part was that Andrew Knizner, a man who has never hit a slam while actually playing a position, hit this slam off Mike Brosseau, who doesn’t normally give those up because he’s an infielder. Which means … a guy with no position pounded a grand slam off a position player. And if you’re not more grateful than ever now for these Strange But True Feats of the Year columns, I don’t know how you made it this far into this one.

    PLEASE IGNORE THE VIDEO EVIDENCE — A classic Strange But True thing happened to Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts on May 3: His career-high 30-game on-base streak was broken despite the weird technicality that he was standing on first base when it ended.

    Geez, it sure wasn’t his fault. He hit what looked like a single to right field. It wasn’t caught in the air by an outfielder, just like most hits. But unfortunately for him, the most confused man in San Diego happened to be his teammate Juan Soto. … Who missed the part where the baseball bounced … and hustled back to first base … where he found Bogaerts wasn’t as happy as usual to see him.

    And that’s how a man who was standing on a base saw his on-base streak disappear, right before his eyes. However many times Bogaerts wondered in 2023 why he ever left Boston, we’re guessing that was one of them!

    NICKEL BACKS — Is Five Hit Fever something a guy could catch just hanging around the batting cage? We ask because Marlins hit machine Luis Arraez definitely caught it this June. How Strange But True is this:

    Arraez in June: three five-hit games in 16 days.

    Miguel Cabrera in his 21-year career: two five-hit games in 2,797 games.

    Strange but 100 percent true.

    But we also asked about Five Hit Fever because of …

    The Angels: They mysteriously went five years — despite employing Mike Trout and Ohtani for all five of them — without having any stinking hitter on the roster figure out how to get five hits in a game … until Hunter Renfroe finally unfurled their first quintuple since 2018 in a June 24 blowout of the Rockies. How even? But wait, Here comes the …

    Strange But True Epilogue: So how long after that would it take for an Angel — any Angel — to deliver their next five-hit game? It was quite the wait … of two batters … until Mickey Moniak got his fifth hit of the day in that same inning. Because … Five Hit Fever! Catch it.

    THE WILD BLUE YAN-DER — If you’re familiar with the work of Cubs catcher Yan Gomes, you’re probably aware he’ll never be confused with Usain Bolt, let alone Dee Strange-Gordon. But in the Strange But True world we live in, anything is possible, even for a man who ranked 449th in the majors this year in average “sprint” speed.

    So naturally, on July 20, at age 36, Gomes did something no catcher his age (or older) had done in the past 95 years: He hit two triples in one game! But that’s not all, because he actually hit triples in two plate appearances in a row. Now here are two reasons we might be interested in something like that:

    1) How many other catchers hit two triples in a game not just this year, but the year before that … and the year before that … and the year before that? Anybody out there guess none? Excellent guess!

    2) How many triples has Gomes hit on any of the 201 other days he has been allowed to play baseball by the Cubs over these past two seasons? That, too, would be none … in 708 trips to the plate.

    But in the middle of all that, this same guy smacked a triple in two at-bats in a row? C’mon. How can you not love the total random wackiness of …

    Baseball!


    Reds rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz wasted no time in providing Strange But True material. (Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)

    IT’S ALL CYCLICAL — We could have worked the Reds’ human tool kit, Elly De La Cruz, into this column about 12 different ways. Did you know he hit a baseball this year harder (119.2 mph) than any ball hit by Aaron Judge? That seems like a cool thing to do for the fastest dude on the field.

    But that’s not even what De La Cruz is doing in this sentence you’re currently reading. Nope. How about this:

    On June 23, he hit for the cycle — in the 15th game of his career.

    On July 8, he stole for the cycle — by stealing second, third and home in the same inning.

    And even though stealing for the cycle is a thing we just invented, it’s still a thing you need to be in awe of, if only because he also stole third and home on the same pitch.

    Last Red to steal for the cycle — Greasy Neale, in 1919!

    Last Red to hit for the cycle — Eric Davis, in 1989, which meant all the other teams had fit 110 cycles in between Reds’ cycles!

    Players in the live-ball era to do both 15 days apart (or quicker) — Elly De La Cruz … and that’ll do it for that list.

    Other players in the past 98 seasons who did both in the same year — Exactly one, and it was … um … Wil Myers? He did it in 2017. But that, in this case, is not the Strange But True part.

    Because you know what else happened the day De La Cruz hit for the cycle and started all this? The Reds released a guy named … Wil Myers!

    VLAD YOU STOPPED BY — Don’t ask us how Vlad Guerrero Jr. didn’t make this column just for fielding a groundball in May, getting the baseball stuck in the webbing and then flipping the whole glove to the pitcher for an out that proved, once again, your glove will not let you down. Except that wasn’t even his Strangest But Truest feat of that week.

    For his greatest Strange But True classic, we take you to May 23 in Tampa Bay, when one of the goofiest games of the season busted out … in large part thanks to Vlad.

    Ever heard of a team scoring nine runs in one inning — all against position players masquerading as pitchers? That. Really. Happened. In the ninth inning of that game. For the first time in the history of this sport.

    And the “pitcher” who was responsible for most of that carnage was Rays first baseman Luke Raley. But in the midst of all those rockets Raley was serving up, he at least shared this nutty little moment with the fearsome Vlad Guerrero Jr., right after taking the mound in the eighth.

    So Vladdy could have made the Strange But True Feats of the Year just for that, except … have we mentioned there was a nine-run ninth inning in this game? … So what were the odds of the Jays’ lineup turning and turning and turning … until here came Vlad to bat again in the ninth inning … only to find Raley still pitching, with the bases loaded? Want to guess what happened in the rematch? Yeah, it did.

    Does it get much Stranger But Truer than a guy striking out and mashing a slam in the same game against the same position player? That would be hard seeing how it had never, ever happened … until Guerrero showed up at home plate.

    SUSPENDED ANIMATION — What’s even stranger (but truer) than a Mookie Betts 5-for-5 game? How about a suspended Mookie Betts 5-for-5 game!

    That’s a thing that happened during the Dodgers’ August visit to Cleveland. And here’s the part that propelled it into this column:

    Aug. 23 — Mookie goes 2-for-2 (with two singles) before half a billion raindrops cause a slight intermission in his hot streak.

    Aug. 24 — Mookie gets three more hits (single, single, double) after the game finally resumes.

    All right, now here’s what makes that a Strange But True all-timer: For the rest of time, history will try to convince us that Mookie had a five-hit game on Wednesday the 23rd … even though many human witnesses exist who could tell you that three of those hits actually met the bat on the “wrong” day (Thursday the 24th).

    So how Strange But True was that? So strange that, according to our friends from STATS Perform, only one other player since 1901 has ever gotten five hits or more in a suspended game … with more than half of them coming on the “wrong” day. But the other (Tom Paciorek) did it in a 26-inning game (on May 8-9, 1984). Which would be 17 more innings than it took Mookie Betts — our official Strange But True Time Traveler of 2023.


    Ozzie Albies and the Braves did a number on the Mets on Aug. 12. (Brad Penner / USA Today)

    WE’VE GOT YOUR NUMBER — The Braves’ whole season could have made this list, because in case you missed it, they somehow had a higher slugging percentage as a team (.501) than bashers like Bryce Harper (.499), Rafael Devers (.500) and José Ramírez (.478) had by themselves. But instead, we’re going to zone in on Aug. 12, our favorite Braves Strange But True day of the year.

    They scored 21 runs in Game 1 of a doubleheader against the Mets that day. But that wasn’t the Strange But True part. The Strange But True part was how they divvied up those 21 runs. By which we mean they had …

    One guy with one RBI (Ronald Acuña Jr.).

    Another with two RBIs (Sean Murphy).

    Another with three RBIs (Austin Riley).

    Another with four RBIs (Matt Olson).

    Another with five RBIs (Nicky Lopez).

    And yet another with six RBIs (Ozzie Albies).

    Which meant everyone else who played had no RBIs. And that caused way too many of you to say to yourselves: Hmmm, could that ever have happened? And also: You know who we should ask? The Strange But True column!

    So we reached out to the great Katie Sharp of Baseball Reference to look into that very question. On one hand, she did find one team that ran off that 1-2-3-4-5-6 RBI box-score trick. On the other hand, that team was Kiki Cuyler’s 1925 Pirates (against St. Louis on June 22, 1925). Which means it happened as recently as 98 years ago.

    But wait. That team actually had two players with two RBIs and two players with one RBI. So you know what that means? It means that, since RBIs became an official stat in 1920, this Braves game was the first time in history that six hitters on one team went 1-2-3-4-5-6 in the RBI column … while nobody else on their team was driving in any runs. And that, for all of you who played 1-2-3-4-5-6 in the Powerball that night, is why we love …

    Baseball!

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Are the Braves the greatest offense in baseball history? They’re making quite a case

    Our 10 favorite Strange But True Pitching Feats of 2023


    Adam Wainwright tips his cap to the St. Louis crowd on the night of his 200th victory. (Jeff Roberson / Associated Press)

    FOUNTAINS OF WAINO — We’ll miss Adam Wainwright. This is, after all, a column dedicated to mixing fun with all the beauties of baseball. And we can’t think of any player, over the past two decades, who got that concept any better than the Cardinals’ curveball king.

    So what was more perfectly Strange But True than the 200th and final win of Wainwright’s wonderful career? Here’s what made it the kind of game Strange But True Feats of the Year columns latch onto:

    He spun seven shutout innings — for his only scoreless start of the year.

    He won this game, 1-0 — for his first 1-0 win in nine years.

    His catcher, Willson Contreras, hit a home run to drive in the only run — the first time he’d ever done that as a Cardinal. But now let’s keep going, because we’ve barely scratched the surface of the Strange But Trueness.

    • Back on Opening Day of the 2014 season, Wainwright won the 100th game of his career. He went seven shutout innings in that game, too. But hold on. There’s more.

    • How do you think the only run scored in that 100th win? Would you believe on a home run by his catcher, Yadi Molina? Yep, the same way he won No. 200.

    • But wait. There’s still more. How many other pitchers in history have ever won their 200th game 1-0 on a home run by their catcher? Right. That would be none.

    • And how many other 1-0 games in Wainwright’s career did he win on any kind of RBI by his catcher? Right. That would also be none.

    Baseball. It’s the best.

    NUMBER SCRUNCHING — In baseball, we love big numbers. But here at Strange But True World HQ, we also love little numbers. The littler the better, in fact. So here’s a toast to these tiny numbers from 2023.

    1 — Does it seem impossible for a pitcher to record a one-pitch strikeout? Ha. Are you familiar with the weirdness of baseball? All it took for Phillies reliever Jeff Hoffman to pull that off, back on July 28, was about three trillion raindrops in Pittsburgh. Then he marched in after a rain delay, inherited a 1-2 count on Jared Triolo, got him to swing through a slider and voila!

    3 — Do first innings get any neater or cleaner than the three pitches it took Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani to zip through his first inning on May 28 against the Pirates? Wait. Don’t answer that too swiftly.

    Three pitches. Three outs. But also … one extra-base hit (by Tucupita Marcano, on the first pitch of the game). Luckily, the next two pitches went: Line-drive out … fly-ball double play. The most baseball thing ever.

    0 — Finally, hard as we’ve been trying not to pick on the Mets in this column, it doesn’t get much Stranger Than Truer than a walk-off balk, issued by a pitcher (Josh Walker) who threw zero pitches. But that was the Mets season in glorious micro-Met-rocosm.

    Here’s that deal. Walker rolls in to relieve Grant Hartwig in an Aug. 1 tilt with the Royals. Tie game. Two outs in the 10th. Leans in for the sign. His PitchCom glitches out. And … oh no!

    We’ve been keeping track of pitch counts for the past 36 seasons. In the 80,000 games or so in those 36 seasons, only one other pitcher has ever managed a no-pitch “balk-off” to end any game: Mike Stanton, for the Nationals, on July 15, 2005. But whatever it took in 2023, it felt as though the Mets were gonna find a way to Met!

    CRAZY EIGHTS — Who had a Stranger But Truer 2023 than Lucas Giolito? It was wacky enough that he ping-ponged from the White Sox to the Angels to the Guardians in a mere 36 days. But that wasn’t even the Strange But True part.

    The Strange But True part was he found a way to allow at least eight runs in a game for all three of those teams. The “good news” for Giolito: He was not the only guy ever to do that for three different teams. But the bad news was, the last pitcher to do it was Bill McGee … in 1899!

    DOMINGO’S PERFECT STORM — If baseball made any sense, all perfect games would be thrown by true aces. So if Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw are ever in the mood to go 27-up, 27-down some day, we’re cool with that. We’d even sign off on occasional guest perfectos by Corbin Burnes and Max Scherzer — because at least we could understand how that’s possible.

    Instead, we are continually reminded that baseball makes no sense. And could there be any more proof than this: The only perfect game of the past decade was authored this season by world-famous non-ace Domingo Germán of the Yankees. And can we all agree that’s just ridiculous?

    Six days before Germán’s perfecto (June 22 versus Seattle) — He faces 23 hitters, gives up 10 runs, gets only 10 outs and never even retires three in a row! (The attractive box-score line: 3 1/3 IP — 8 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 4 HR, 93 pitches to get 10 outs!)

    Six days later (June 28 at Oakland) — The same human faces 27 hitters, gets all 27 of them out! (The much more presentable line: 9-0-0-0-0-9, 97 pitches to get 27 outs!)

    We were so befuddled by this, how could we not ask our friends from STATS if it was as illogical and unprecedented as we suspected? The answer: Well, you could probably guess the answer.

    This was baseball’s 20th perfect game since 1909. There was one slight difference between German’s gem and the other 19: He was the only one who faced at least 23 hitters in the previous start and never once retired three in a row … because of course he was!


    Michael Lorenzen celebrates the no-hitter with his Phillies teammates.  (Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)

    THE LORENZEN EXPRESS — At least Domingo Germán didn’t throw any other no-hitters this year … but Michael Lorenzen did … because why the heck not! He was traded by the Tigers to the Phillies on Aug. 1. He no-hit the Nationals eight days later.

    No need to mention that after the no-hitter, his ERA over the final two months was 8.01. Doesn’t matter. He no-hit his way right into the Strange But True Feats of the Year column. Here’s why:

    Steve Carlton — spent 15 years pitching for the Phillies, won four Cy Young awards, led all left-handers in baseball in WAR over those 15 seasons, made the Hall of Fame … and pitched zero no-hitters.

    Michael Lorenzen — had spent eight days as a Phillie, had never thrown a pitch for the Phillies in Philadelphia before that night, was out of the rotation five weeks later … but has achieved trivia immortality as the answer to a version of this question: Who’s the only Phillie to pitch a no-hitter in Philadelphia since Roy Halladay?

    Wow. Baseball. Is it amazing, or what?

    DREAM WEAVER — You should know that Luke Weaver did not throw any no-hitters for the Reds this year (or for his other two teams — the Mariners and Yankees — either). But he, too, did exemplary work in proving our recurring thesis about baseball: It. Makes. No. Sense.

    On one handFrom May 31 to July 8, Weaver made eight starts for the Reds. You decide how that went.

    • His ERA: 8.66

    Slash line of hitters he faced: .342/.392/.613

    • What that means: He basically turned the entire league into 2012 Miguel Cabrera (who hit .330/.393/.606 that year).

    So that was a disaster, huh? Um, don’t answer yet, because …

    On the other hand … how’d the Reds make out in those eight starts? Would you believe …

    They went 8-0!

    You’d think we were making that up, right? And then you’d remember … this is the Strange But True Feats of the Year column!

    BOX-SCORE CORNER — You don’t need us to point out that certain trips to the mound are Strange But True material. You just need to consult the box scores. They tell you all you need to know about games like this …

    Ben Lively, Aug. 1 at WrigleyIn the Cubs’ 20-9 thrashing of the Reds, Lively was more like Ben Deadly:

    4 IP, 13 H, 13 R, 13 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 4 HR, 1 HBP, 94 pitches to get 12 outs!

    So what’s up with that? You know how hard it is to give up 13 hits and 13 earned runs but not even get 12 outs? Nobody had done that since Les (not a McDonald’s entrée) McCrabb … on April 16, 1942! … But you know how much harder it is to give up 13 earned runs and four homers? So hard that, since earned runs became an official stat more than a century ago, just one pitcher has done that. His name: Ben Lively.

    Luis Cessa, April 16 versus the PhilliesWe’re not sure how this column turned into a Reds Rotation’s Greatest Hits collection. But it wouldn’t have been possible to compile these Strange But True Pitching Feats of the year without this sparkling start by Cessa:

    3 IP, 14 H, 11 R, 11 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 HR, 1 HBP, 1 WP, 88 pitches to get nine outs.

    So what’s up with that? Before we could even look this up, loyal reader Allan Wood beat us to it. You know how many pitchers since 1900 have given up that many runs and that many hits but not even gotten 10 outs? Just one. Right … Luis Cessa.

    Josh Fleming, May 28 versus the Dodgers — Meanwhile, in non-Reds box-score developments, Fleming’s final start of the year for the Rays was a classic in more ways than one:

    6 IP, 12 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 3 K … and 5 HR!

    So what’s up with that? Ha. Trick question. You won’t believe it. Yes, this man gave up 12 hits, 10 runs and five looonnnggg balls — but it was all worth it. Not just because he saved the bullpen, but also because … his team won (11-10)! He’s the first pitcher to get bruised for that many runs, hits and homers in a game his team won since the legendary Dodger, Ralph Branca, was allowed to stick around for all nine innings in a scenic 17-10 game in Pittsburgh on June 25, 1949.


    Chase Anderson gave up an unlucky 13 runs to the Angels in an infamous third inning. (John Leyba / USA Today)

    CUT TO THE CHASE — Every trip to the mound at Coors Field is an opportunity, all right — an opportunity to wind up in the Strange But True Feats of the Year column. So congratulations to Chase Anderson, for doing his part in a messy little 25-1 loss to the Angels on June 24.

    Here is how he kicked off a fun little 13-run third inning that day:

    First pitch — Mike Trout home run.

    Second pitch — Brandon Drury home run.

    Third pitch — Matt Thaiss home run.

    That’s three pitches, three home runs. And you don’t see that much. In fact, home runs on three pitches in a row, at any point in any inning, is a thing that’s happened only one other time to any active pitcher … and it was the same pitcher.

    No kidding. Back on Sept. 17, 2020, when Anderson was a Blue Jay, he served up three in a row to the Yankees in the fourth inning. And that would make no sense at all, except it’s …

    Baseball!

    NO-HIT PANDA-MONIUM — We don’t ordinarily take these Strange But True expeditions into the wilds of the minor leagues. But we’re making an exception here for the beloved Rocket City Trash Pandas, of the always-entertaining Double-A Southern League, because …

    The good news: On April 9, the Trash Pandas did one of those things that are supposed to feel like a dream come true — by throwing a no-hitter, in an all-time minor-league classic, against Chattanooga. But now comes …

    The not quite as good as that news: They managed to throw that no-hitter and lose, which doesn’t happen much, even in the Southern League. And that isn’t even the Strange But True part, because you should definitely read on to …

    The not even as good as that last thing news: They pulled off the rarified feat of throwing a no-hitter … and allowing seven runs … but also … allowing all seven of those runs in the same inning.

    How Strange But True is it to give up seven runs in a no-hitter? Oh, you know. No big-league team has ever done it. And the only other time it’s known to have happened in the minor leagues was Aug. 31, 1948, in the late, great Pony League, when Louis Blackmore of the Wellsville Red Sox did it in a game in which there wasn’t much need for anybody to get a hit … since he also sprinkled in 17 walks that day!

    So is that how the Trash Pandas did it? Eh, not exactly. Their attractive seven-run inning … in the middle of a no-hitter, remember … went like this:

    Walk … walk … infield-fly rule popup (one out) … walk … strikeout (two outs) … walk (one run) … three-run error on the center fielder (four runs – oops!) … new pitcher … hit-by-pitch … hit-by-pitch … hit-by-pitch (five runs) … walk (six runs) … run-scoring wild pitch (seven runs) … hit-by-pitch … strikeout (three outs).

    So what are the odds of giving up seven runs in a no-hitter, no matter how many innings it takes? This took some math. But here goes …

    In the last 105 big-league games in which a team gave up no hits, you know how many runs those 105 teams gave up? That would be six — in all 105 of those games combined! But somehow, the Trash Pandas gave up seven … in one inning. And if you’ve never seen anything like that, we can help with that too!

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Weird & Wild: Marveling at the Trash Pandas’ no-hitter loss and the Rays’ winning streak

    THE GHOST OF HARVEY HADDIX — But the Milwaukee Brewers don’t need to check in with any Trash Pandas to know that throwing a no-hitter can be overrated. They lived it Sept. 10 — in one of the Strangest But Truest games of any year.

    For nine innings that day, Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams no-hit the Yankees in the Bronx. Then reliever Abner Uribe stomped out of the bullpen and made it 10 hitless innings. If the Brewers had just remembered to score a run or 12 in those 10 innings, they’d have had a way better time.

    Instead, this game kept going — through the 11th inning, through the 12th inning, into the 13th inning — during which … the Yankees went from getting no hits in any inning to getting at least one hit … and scoring … in every inning, from the 11th through the 13th, because … it’s baseball … and … it makes no sense.

    So on a day when the Brewers gave up no hits for 10 innings, they still lost, 4-3. And how Strange But True was that? You’ve come to the right place.

    On one hand … teams that spin off nine hitless innings tend to win a lot. In the division-play era (1969-2023), 150 teams have pitched exactly nine innings of hit-free, run-free domination in either a regular-season or postseason game. The record of those teams is a perfect 150-0. OK, sure.

    Or 10 is also cool … because no team in the modern era has pitched exactly 10 hitless, scoreless innings in a game and lost, either. The record of teams that do that: 4-0 … as we’d all expect. However …

    On the other hand … here comes the Strangest But Truest no-hitter fact ever: No team has ever taken a no-hitter into the 11th inning … and won that game! This is true. Those teams are now 0-4. Really.

    So if your favorite team ever finds itself throwing a no-hitter in the 11th inning, don’t say we didn’t warn you. It may seem like a beautiful thing while you’re watching it. But in reality, it’s more dangerous than you think, just because it’s …

    Baseball!

    (Top photo of Kyle Schwarber: Rich Graessle / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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  • Who is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and why is he getting $325 million from the Dodgers?

    Who is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and why is he getting $325 million from the Dodgers?

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    Yoshinobu Yamamoto might be the best pitcher alive right now. That’s who he is, and it’s why he’s getting a 12-year, $325 million deal from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

    If that seems hyperbolic to you, then you’ve come to the right place. You want to know who Yamamoto is and why he’s able to afford the guacamole at Chipotle like it’s no big deal. He’s never thrown a pitch in the majors; how can he be the best pitcher alive?

    To be fair, that “might be” is doing a lot of work. Gerrit Cole is a marvel, and so is Zack Wheeler. You can scroll through this list of the highest WARs over the last three seasons and pick your personal favorite for “best pitcher alive.” Don’t forget about Roki Sasaki, another Nippon Professional Baseball pitcher you’ll be very, very, very, very familiar with at this time next season.

    But Yamamoto is in the conversation, and that’s why he got the contract he did. Let’s get to know Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

    What did Yamamoto do in Japan?

    OK, check this out: In 2017, he had a 2.35 ERA for the Orix Buffaloes. He had a .750 winning percentage. He struck out five batters for every batter he walked. He allowed 0.5 homers per nine innings pitched.

    That was his worst season in the NPB. Also, he was an 18-year-old rookie. That partial season was probably his nadir as a professional so far.

    As for the rest of the seasons, his career ERA in the NPB is 1.72, if that gives you some idea. He’s allowed 36 homers over his seven-season career. That’s fewer homers than eight different MLB Hall of Famers have allowed in a season. In his 2023 season, Yamamoto threw 171 innings and allowed two home runs. Not a typo.

    His career numbers:

    1.72 career ERA
    .714 winning percentage
    75-30 W-L record
    9.2 K/9
    2.0 BB/9
    0.3 HR/9

    Yamamoto turned 25 in August. So if the common preconception is that the NPB is “Quadruple-A” in terms of its talent, somewhere between the majors and Triple A, what do you make of a pitcher of prospect age who does that when he’s in his early 20s?

    You give him a $325 million contract, that’s what you do.

    What does Yamamoto throw?

    Pitches. Mostly good ones. Ones that get outs, miss bats and prevent home runs.

    But if you’re looking for specifics, our own Eno Sarris has you covered, and he took a deep dive.

    First, note his compact motion. He’s not bringing that right arm all the way back, at least not yet. When he does, it’s to get him into Tim Lincecum territory, with the ball held toward the ground at a 90-degree angle.

    But when it’s time to come to the plate, that right arm comes up quickly and turns into an ultra-short motion. He helps his mid-to-upper-90s fastball seem even faster, as you can tell by the emergency swing above.

    This video does a good job breaking down how he gets that velocity, as well as his other pitches:

    Back to Sarris’ article, though. Here are his notes on Yamamoto’s specific pitches, based on the StatCast numbers that he posted in the World Baseball Classic:

    • A four-seam fastball that’s good enough to be a top-20 fastball in the majors

    • The nastiest splitter in the world

    • An elite curveball

    • A cutter that’s fine, but needs work

    All of that is very exciting, but it wouldn’t work as well if he couldn’t command where those pitches are going. Good news, then: His command is freaky elite. He’s pumping above-average fastballs, world-class splitters and elite curveballs where he wants to throw them, generally. The stuff-command combo gives him a chance to be special, right from Opening Day.

    Are there any good major-league comparisons for Yamamoto?

    Kevin Gausman is an OK one, because of the fastball-splitter combo, but it breaks down when you get to the third pitch. Gausman offers a show-me slider, whereas Yamamoto can go to that elite curveball.

    Roy Oswalt had a similar stature (listed at 6-foot-0, but closer to 5-foot-10, with Yamamoto listed at 5-foot-10) and he used exceptional command, control and stuff to be one of the best pitchers of his generation. But he was a true sinkerballer and not as much of a bat-misser.

    Masahiro Tanaka is a fair bit taller than Yamamoto, but he had elite command and control, and the strength of his splitter-fastball combo is close to what Yamamoto offers. Still, the height and extension are great separators between the two.

    The correct answer is that, no, there aren’t many good major-league comparisons. Gausman is the most obvious one, but only seven pitchers in the majors threw a splitter more than 15 percent of the time last season: Gausman, Alex Cobb, Taijuan Walker, Kenta Maeda, Nathan Eovaldi, Joe Ryan and Tony Gonsolin. None of them seem like great comparisons, though. Yamamoto is sui generis, and comparisons aren’t very useful. Gausman or Eovaldi are probably the best comps, though. Considering that both of them are former All-Stars with some Cy Young Award votes in their past, that seems good.

    What is Yamamoto like as a person?

    English-language reports from the Japan Times and Japan News have him as a player whom coaches loved and someone who adapted extremely well to the NPB, despite being a teenager. He likes soft-serve ice cream with soy sauce, which sounds amazing. He’s in the salty-sweet club, like everyone in the world should be. He wants to go to Brazil. His favorite food is squid. His favorite color is red, which could lead to a lot of baseless rumors if the right person tweeted it.

    Other than that, he’s something of a buttoned-down mystery. I did find this TikTok of him and made it into a GIF, though.

    Seems important.


    There are no guarantees in baseball, especially for pitchers. Arms are jerks.

    But when it comes to the kinds of gambles that teams should take? Here’s one of the best you can find. He’s the age of a prospect with the resume of a future Hall of Famer, at least in Japan. Now that teams are adept at analyzing pitches and pitch shapes and all of that jazz, they’ve come to the conclusion that this dude can pitch. And he represents a rare opportunity, considering his age. If you’re wondering who Yoshinobu Yamamoto is, don’t worry. You’ll be very, very familiar soon enough.

    (Top illustration by John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos by Lucas Stevenson and Eric Espada / Getty Images)

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