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  • MLB division series Day 1: Takeaways from Phillies, Astros, Yankees, Dodgers wins

    MLB division series Day 1: Takeaways from Phillies, Astros, Yankees, Dodgers wins

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    We’re down to eight teams in the 2022 postseason after four were eliminated this past weekend in MLB’s first-ever wild-card series weekend. Now it’s on to the league division series: four series, best-of-five, first team to win three advances.

    The Philadelphia Phillies beat the defending champion Atlanta Braves in the first game of the division series round on Tuesday. In a battle between AL West rivals, the Houston Astros defeated the Seattle Mariners on a dramatic walk-off. The New York Yankees beat the Cleveland Guardians in Game 1 of the second ALDS, and, finally, an intradivision showdown resulted in the the Los Angeles Dodgers beating the San Diego Padres in the second NLDS opening matchup.

    Here’s a look back at all the Day 1 action.

    More: Everything you need to know about the 2022 MLB playoffs | Previewing LDS matchups | Could this be the greatest postseason … ever? | Bracket, results and more

    Dodgers lead 1-0

    Game 1 takeaways

    The Dodgers have continually talked up the depth and talent of their bullpen, regardless of the uncertainty at the back end — and that confidence was validated in their postseason opener. The Padres trimmed a five-run deficit to two with a big fifth inning against Julio Urias, but then four Dodgers relievers — Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Brusdar Graterol and Chris Martin — kept the Padres scoreless over the last four innings for a Game 1 victory.

    The usage offered an early peek at the Dodgers’ bullpen strategy. Manager Dave Roberts used Phillips, their most effective reliever this season, in the sixth inning because the best part of the Padres’ lineup was due up. Vesia, a lefty, came back out to face the left-handed-hitting Juan Soto. And for the final four outs, it was Graterol and Martin. The order will undoubtedly change throughout the postseason, with Tommy Kahnle and, perhaps eventually, Blake Treinen pitching in high leverage situations. But the Dodgers clearly feel good enough about their depth. — Alden Gonzalez

    Out of a jam

    With the Padres on a roll in the sixth inning, Phillips got Wil Myers to ground into a double play, ending the threat.

    Padres on the board

    Myers’ 376-foot home run just made it over the wall to give the Padres their first run of the night. Runs by Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim cut the Dodgers’ lead to two.

    Dodgers score again

    In the bottom of the third, Will Smith hit a ball deep into left field for a double that brought home Trea Turner home and extended the Dodgers’ lead to three. After a Max Muncy single, L.A. added another run courtesy of a Gavin Lux double that brought Smith home.

    A walk with the bases loaded along and a Padres error helped bring in two more runs and increased the lead to 5-0 for Los Angeles.

    Turner goes yard

    Trea Turner gave the Dodgers an early lead in the first inning with a 419-foot blast to left field.

    Arrivals

    Yankees lead series 1-0

    Game 1 takeaways

    The Yankees needed Gerrit Cole to be on top of his game and he delivered. Over the course of 6 1/3 innings, Cole allowed just one run on four hits — a home run to Steven Kwan — while walking one and striking out eight. The game nearly fell apart on Cole in the third inning after Cleveland loaded the bases with one out following Kwan’s home run, but Cole managed to get out of the inning unscathed.

    Meanwhile, at the plate, the Yankees relied on a solo homer from Harrison Bader to tie the game, a Jose Trevino sacrifice fly to take the lead and an Anthony Rizzo two-run shot into the second deck of right field to extend the lead to 4-1. That provided a cushion for the bullpen, which was held together on the backs of Jonathan Loaisiga, Wandy Peralta and Clay Holmes. — Joon Lee

    Rizzo rips one

    It wouldn’t be a game at Yankee Stadium without a lot of home runs. Speaking of that, Anthony Rizzo hit a two-run dinger to add to New York’s lead.

    The home run that wasn’t

    Josh Donaldson thought he had a go-ahead home run … and was caught out between first and second base when it turned out that the ball had instead bounced off the top of the wall. Replay confirmed it, and the Yankee faithful were less than enthused. Fortunately for the Bronx Bombers, an Oscar Gonzalez misplay off the right-field wall led to a sacrifice fly, and a tenuous lead.

    The Yankees strike back

    Harrison Bader tied things up for New York with a home run to left field. It’s Bader’s first home run as a member of the Yankees.

    Cleveland starts it off

    The Guardians’ power-filled postseason continues with Steven Kwan opening up the scoring with a 360-foot home run to right field.

    Arrivals

    Mayoral wager

    Astros lead 1-0

    Game 1 takeaways

    The Mariners were on their way to stealing home-field advantage in their ALDS, and then the Astros did what the Astros always seem to do in October. Bottom nine. Two on. Two out. Yordan Alvarez at the plate. And in came Robbie Ray, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, the $115 million free agent prize of Seattle’s offseason, to get the lefty-on-lefty matchup. Alvarez fouled off a fastball. He didn’t miss the next one. And 439 feet later, a 117-mph rocket landed in the right-field bleachers and propelled the Astros to an 8-7 victory in Game 1. Down 7-3 after Justin Verlander‘s worst-ever playoff start, Houston looked done until it wasn’t. And it continued a trend that has proven awfully fruitful in years past: Six straight postseasons, six straight victories in Game 1 of the ALDS. — Jeff Passan

    Postgame trolling

    The Astros used the most brutal weapon possible in trolling the Mariners: math.

    Astros walk it off

    Alvarez’s walk-off home run put Houston in the win column in the series opener.

    Houston shrinks the lead

    Alex Bregman‘s 403-foot homer drove Alvarez home and narrowed Seattle’s lead to 7-5 in the bottom of the eighth inning.

    Mariners keep mashing

    Seattle added to its lead thanks to Eugenio Suarez‘s solo homer.

    Houston gets on the board

    The Astros’ first score came in the third inning, courtesy of a Yordan Alvarez double that drove Jose Altuve and Chas McCormick home. Yuli Gurriel mashed a 373-foot home run for their third run of the game, cutting Seattle’s lead tp three.

    Seattle stays hot

    Seattle’s hot start continued in the second inning with runs from Rodriguez, Adam Frazier and Jarred Kelenic.

    Seattle strikes first

    Julio Rodriguez drew a leadoff walk from Justin Verlander to begin the game. Ty France’s hit sent him to third, and Cal Raleigh‘s RBI single allowed Rodriguez to score the game’s first run.

    Trolling the Stros

    Washington’s department of natural resources couldn’t resist cracking a joke about Houston’s sign-stealing scandal.

    M’s are here

    Thanks for the help

    The very helpful excuse note. Especially for a 2:37 p.m. local time start.

    Phillies lead series 1-0

    Game 1 takeaways

    The Phillies’ offense has emerged during the playoffs with a different feel than the long ball-or-bust version we saw most of the season. In Tuesday’s NLDS Game 1 win, they peppered Braves pitching with 10 hits — Nick Castellanos had three of them — and seven runs in the first five innings without hitting a home run.

    When they weren’t filling the bases via singles and doubles, Philadelphia played small ball, attempting three sacrifice bunts, including one each from sluggers Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Two of those bunt attempts were successful, leading to two more small-ball moments: sacrifice flies by Alec Bohm in the third inning and Matt Vierling in the fifth. And it all added up to just enough for the Phillies to hang on for a 7-6 victory after the Braves made it interesting with a three-run ninth inning.

    It’s not something you can find in the box score, but the Phillies’ fast start — coupled with the Mariners getting to Astros ace Justin Verlander early in their own division series opener — makes it worth wondering if there’s a rest-vs.-rust advantage to coming in hot off a wild-card-round win against a team that hasn’t played for nearly a week. — Jesse Rogers

    Lockdown defense

    Nick Castellanos makes a diving catch for the second out of the ninth inning en route to a Philly victory.

    Olson’s big-time HR

    Matt Olson hits a three-run blast with one out in the ninth, cutting the Phillies’ deficit to just one run — and giving the Braves some late-game hope.

    Playoff d’Arnaud

    Travis D’Arnaud earned his second and third RBIs of the game with a double that drove home William Contreras and Olson — making him responsible for all of Atlanta’s first three runs.

    Lots of early scoring

    Philadelphia is living the baseball adage that “two-out hits will get you to heaven.” Atlanta’s first score came via the long ball.

    Famous fans

    Arrivals

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  • Los Angeles Dodgers’ Julio Urias Among Four Players To Watch In NLDS

    Los Angeles Dodgers’ Julio Urias Among Four Players To Watch In NLDS

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    It’s on to Round 2 of Major League Baseball’s four-tiered postseason.

    The Division Series round begins Tuesday with four best-of-five series. That comes on the heels of last weekend’s Wild Card round.

    It will be the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres squaring off and the Atlanta Braves facing the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League. In the American League, it will be the Houston Astros against the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees versus the Cleveland Guardians.

    Here is a look at one key player from each team involved in the NLDS.

    JULIO URIAS, DODGERS

    The left-hander gets the start in Game 1 against the Padres. That is all you need to know about how much the Dodgers value the bespectacled 26-year-old.

    Urias was 17-7 in the regular season with a 2.16 ERA in 31 starts. He led the NL in ERA and was second in wins behind the Braves’ Kyle Wright, who had 21. Urias also had a sparkling 0.960 WHIP while striking out 175 batters in 166 innings.

    Despite his age, Urias also has plenty of postseason experience with five career starts and 17 relief appearances. He has a solid 3.52 ERA and 0.988 WHIP over 53 2/3 innings.

    Urias can become a free agent at the end of next season. It seems likely the Dodgers will try to sign him to a long-term contract extension this coming winter.

    YU DARVISH, PADRES

    Darvish will likely make only one start against the Dodgers after winning Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series against the New York Mets. He is scheduled to pitch Game 2 against Clayton Kershaw and it will be a chance for redemption for the veteran right-hander.

    In 2017, Darvish started Game 7 of the World Series and got hit hard by the Houston Astros. He was tagged for five runs in 1 2/3 innings and took the loss.

    The Padres will look for Darvish to pitch like he did against the Mets when he allowed only one run on six hits in seven innings. That followed a regular season in which he was 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in 30 starts.

    Darvish’s six-year, $126-million contract he signed with the Chicago Cubs expires after next season. He will be 37 then but could still land a significant contract.

    DANSBY SWANSON, BRAVES

    The shortstop is eligible to file for free agency five days after the World Series. However, the Braves have been very public about their desire to sign Swanson to a long-term extension.

    The 28-year-old had arguably the best of his seven seasons in the major league this year. He played in all 162 games and hit .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs and 18 stolen bases. Swanson was also a plus defender with nine defensive runs saved.

    The one knock on Swanson, though, is he did have a swoon after the All-Star break. He hit .294/.353/.481 in the first half but .254/.298/.404 in the second half.

    Regardless, he will command a large contract if he reaches the open market.

    ZACK WHEELER, PHILLIES

    The Phillies raised some eyebrows when they signed the right-hander to a five-year, $118-million contract as a free agent during the 2019-20 offseason. Wheeler’s lifetime record at that point was 44-38.

    However, the Phillies clearly knew what they were doing. After finishing second in the NL Cy Young Award voting last season, Wheeler went 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA in 26 starts this year despite being slowed by forearm tendinitis.

    Wheeler worked 6 1/3 shutout innings and allowed just two hits against the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card series. The 32-year-old from the Atlanta area is 10-7 in his career against the Braves with a 3.16 ERA in 24 starts.

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    John Perrotto, Senior Contributor

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  • Eight teams remain in 2022 MLB playoffs

    Eight teams remain in 2022 MLB playoffs

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    Eight teams remain in 2022 MLB playoffs – CBS News


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    Eight teams remain in the Major League Baseball playoffs after the Wild Card series wrapped up this weekend. John Dickerson speaks with Matt Snyder, who covers all things baseball for CBS Sports.

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  • Padres-Dodgers NLDS is set: Everything you need to know about the eight remaining MLB playoff teams

    Padres-Dodgers NLDS is set: Everything you need to know about the eight remaining MLB playoff teams

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    After an action-packed Wild Card to get the 2022 MLB playoffs going, there are eight teams left battling for World Series glory entering the division series round.

    With an extra round to begin the postseason and the possibility that this year’s Fall Classic extends to a Game 7 on Nov. 5, it was a very short October stay for some — and we could ultimately see the latest championship celebration in MLB history for the last squad standing.

    Will the favored Los Angeles Dodgers rule the National League or will the repeat-minded Braves make another deep run? Can anyone in the American League keep the New York Yankees and Houston Astros from squaring off in the ALCS?

    MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with everything from odds for every matchup and a predicted date of each team’s last game to the best- and worst-case scenario for all eight remaining World Series hopefuls.

    Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.

    Bracket | Our picks | Wild-card takeaways

    Jump to a team:
    SEA | CLE | NYY | HOU
    PHI | SD | ATL | LAD

    American League

    They made it this far, but …

    Seattle Mariners

    No. 5 seed | 89-72 | AL wild second card

    ALDS opponent: Astros (36.2% chance of advancing)

    World Series odds: 4.9% | Caesars odds: +2000

    Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 17

    How they could stay around longer: Refuse to Lose. Anything Can Happen. True to the Blue. Believe. Hey, after Cal Raleigh clinched Seattle’s playoff spot and ended the franchise’s 21-year-old playoff drought with a dramatic pinch-hit, two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth, 3-2 count, walk-off home run — and then Seattle pulled off the comeback of all postseason road comebacks to eliminate Toronto on Saturday. Maybe destiny really is on the Mariners’ side. If you want a baseball reason, the bullpen is deep and built for October. But they’ll need to score some runs and to do that, how about a dream scenario: Rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez returns from the sore back that sidelined him at the end of September and has a postseason for the ages. — Schoenfield

    What could send them home soon: The pitching will need to carry them, but it also looked a little fatigued at times down the stretch. Luis Castillo had three rough September starts when he suddenly lost it in the middle innings. Rookie George Kirby had been a model of consistency until a recent bad outing (and is well beyond his innings total from 2021). Robbie Ray had two scoreless starts in September mixed in with three mediocre ones. The bullpen was pushed hard throughout the season and closer Paul Sewald has been homer-prone of late. The Mariners don’t score enough runs to leave much margin for error, so the entire staff will need to bring it. — Schoenfield

    One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros won 12 of 19 games against the Mariners, but they outscored Seattle by only eight runs. In the six games started by Justin Verlander, however, the Astros outscored their division rivals 30-11. Houston won five of those starts. In his past three outings against Seattle, Verlander allowed three runs in 21⅔ innings. In other words — it’s going to be crucial for Seattle to take advantage on the days Verlander doesn’t pitch. Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have a 5.40 ERA in 48⅓ innings against the M’s this year. — Gonzalez

    Cleveland Guardians

    No. 3 seed | 91-70 | AL Central champs

    Wild-card opponent: Yankees (37.7% chance of advancing)

    World Series odds: 2.9% | Caesars odds: +3500

    Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 17

    How they could stay around longer: The Guardians have drawn comparisons to the 2014-15 Royals for their style of play: Contact hitting, speed, defense … and a dominant bullpen. Emmanuel Clase is as good as any closer this side of Edwin Diaz and the top three setup relievers in front of him — James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan and lefty Sam Hentges — have all been outstanding. They’re hard to hit, they strike batters out and all four are stingy with the home run. The pen has been even better since the beginning of July, with the second-best ERA in the majors behind the Dodgers. Get a lead through five or six and the Guardians almost always hold it. October baseball has become more and more about the bullpens and Cleveland can match up with any team. — Schoenfield

    What could send them home soon: Lack of power. The Guardians have the fewest home runs of the playoff teams and you win in the playoffs by hitting home runs. Don’t buy that? In last year’s postseason, the team that hit more home runs went 25-2-10 — that’s 25 wins, two losses and 10 games where the teams hit the same number. No, the Royals didn’t hit a lot of home runs in 2014 or 2015, but they did hit them in the playoffs (and that was an era with fewer home runs in general). It certainly would be fun to see the Guardians scratch and claw their way to the World Series, but more likely they’ll have to power up. — Schoenfield

    One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The only AL team that put the ball in play more often than the Astros was the Guardians — by a pretty sizable margin. Cleveland also stole the third-most bases in the majors and led the sport in going first to third on a single. Putting the ball in play and running the bases both effectively and aggressively is the Guardians’ recipe for success in October, not just against the Astros but against everyone. The Astros are the second-best defensive team in the postseason field, according to outs above average. But Martin Maldonado was below league average in caught-stealing percentage this season. The Guardians need to get on base and they need to run — and just hope the series doesn’t turn into a slugfest. — Gonzalez

    Better pack for the whole month

    New York Yankees

    No. 2 seed | 99-63 | AL East champs

    ALDS opponent: Guardians (62.3% chance of advancing)

    World Series odds: 15.6% | Caesars odds: +500

    Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 25

    How they could stay around longer: Maybe it’s unfair, but it feels like so much is riding on Gerrit Cole’s performance, especially since Frankie Montas wasn’t the big rotation addition the Yankees expected. When Cole bombed out early in the wild-card game against the Red Sox last season, the Yankees went home. He’s still striking out a ton of batters, but he also led the American League with 33 home runs allowed — 16 of them off his four-seam fastball. Cole was especially homer-prone in September with 10 in 36 innings and in his four career postseason starts with the Yankees he has allowed six in just 20⅓ innings. He has to figure out how to keep the ball in the park. — Schoenfield

    What could send them home early: Opponents pitch around Aaron Judge and the rest of the lineup fails to knock him in. When the Yankees struggled with a 10-18 record in August, they averaged just 3.61 runs per game — even as Judge hit nine home runs and drove in 22 runs. But as he continued mashing throughout the season, teams started walking him more often: 13 times in May, 15 in June, 17 in July, 25 in August and 30 in September. The Yankees led the AL in runs, but they can’t expect one man to carry them for an entire postseason. It’s worth noting that in seven games against the Astros they hit just .151. — Schoenfield

    One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros famously got the best of the Yankees during the regular season, winning five of seven. The encouraging news if you’re a Yankees fan: All seven games were decided by three runs or fewer. The not-so-encouraging news: The Yankees didn’t throw a single pitch with a lead. Both of their victories came as a result of come-from-behind rallies followed by walk-off hits from Judge. But the Astros were one of few teams that were actually able to keep Judge mostly in check, holding him to a .148/.258/.370 slash line. Needless to say, Judge’s bat needs to come alive in this potential heavyweight matchup. And the Yankees will have to play a clean, mistake-free brand of baseball. — Gonzalez

    Most likely to be playing in November

    Houston Astros

    No. 1 seed | 106-56 | AL West champs

    ALDS opponent: Mariners (63.8% chance of advancing)

    World Series odds: 18.2% | Caesars odds: +380

    Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2

    Why they are the AL’s team to beat: Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, the two veteran holdovers from the 2017 World Series champions who continue to get booed around the league, do serious damage at the plate. Altuve quietly had one of his best seasons, with an OPS+ that matched his MVP season in 2017. Bregman, meanwhile, had a big second half, the best he’s hit since 2019. Altuve has been outstanding in his postseason career (.286/.361/.567, 23 home runs in 79 games) while Bregman less so (.226/.339/.400, 12 home runs in 73 games), but if they’re getting on base in front of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, good things can happen. — Schoenfield

    What could send them home early: The bottom of the lineup fails to contribute. The Astros don’t get much from their catchers, Martin Maldonado and Christian Vazquez (who hasn’t homered for Houston since coming over from Boston at the trade deadline). Yuli Gurriel had a rough season. Trey Mancini, the other trade acquisition, has hit under .200 for the Astros. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena has seen his numbers drop in the second half. This lineup simply lacks the depth of some other Houston teams of recent vintage. If the big four don’t click, it could be a quick exit — no matter how dominant Justin Verlander and the rest of the rotation is. — Schoenfield

    Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: Most of the Dodgers’ postseason pitching plan remains a mystery, but one thing has already been declared by manager Dave Roberts: Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson will make up three-fourths of their postseason rotation. What do they all have in common? They’re all lefties. And the Astros — with a right-handed-heavy lineup headlined by Bregman and Altuve — feasted on left-handed pitching this season. Their best hitter, the left-handed-hitting Alvarez, was elite against lefties, too. In a matchup of two teams that are pretty closely matched, it could make the difference. If the Astros can make a habit out of scoring early, they could claim their second World Series title against the Dodgers — and their first without a cheating scandal. — Gonzalez

    National League

    They made it this far, but …

    Philadelphia Phillies

    No. 6 seed | 87-75 | NL third wild card

    NLDS opponent: Braves (38.8% chance of advancing)

    World Series odds: 4.9% | Caesars odds: +3500

    Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 16

    How they could stay around longer: The bullpen falls into place. Philadelphia has a 5.04 bullpen ERA since the beginning of September, a big contributor to Philly’s near-collapse down the stretch. Injuries have included Corey Knebel (done for the season) and Brad Hand (question mark for the playoffs). David Robertson will be a part of the high-leverage mix. Other solutions have emerged: converted starter Zach Eflin has flourished out of the bullpen, and Jose Alvarado has been as hot as any reliever. Struggling Seranthony Dominguez regaining the dominant form he flashed before an August injury might be enough to push the Phillies over the hump. — Doolittle

    What could send them home soon: .The Phillies own MLB’s third-highest homer rate and while they aren’t the most longball-dependent offense in the postseason, they aren’t far off. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins & Co. need to combine for two or three bombs per game or the Phillies will have a hard time turning the scoreboard. — Doolittle

    One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The 2019 Washington Nationals proved you don’t need to be incredibly deep or even well-rounded to defeat the Dodgers in a short series. Sometimes, if the top of your roster is elite, you just need your best players to perform to their capabilities. Harper and Schwarber combined for a 1.315 OPS in 54 plate appearances against the Dodgers this season, but Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler combined to allow nine runs in 17⅔ innings. In those four — and catcher J.T. Realmuto — the Phillies boast upper-echelon talent. They’ll need them to do most of the heavy lifting to defeat L.A. — Gonzalez

    San Diego Padres

    No. 5 seed | 89-73 | NL second wild card

    NLDS opponent: Dodgers (24.8% chance of advancing)

    World Series odds: 3.5% | Caesars odds: +2800

    Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 16

    How they could stay around longer: Juan Soto goes off. Soto went into a funk not long after the monumental midseason trade that sent him to San Diego. While his overall San Diego numbers are down even from his subpar pre-trade numbers in Washington, Soto has quietly been trending up over the past couple of weeks. And let’s not forget that when the Nationals won the World Series in 2019, Soto’s huge postseason as a 20-year-old had a lot to do with it. All the hand-wringing over Soto’s post-trade play would be forgotten if he has a big October. — Doolittle

    What could send them home soon: The Padres’ rotation, especially Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove, carried them into the playoffs down the stretch. That success needs to continue, but it wouldn’t have mattered had closer Josh Hader not straightened himself out. After a catastrophic start to his Padres career, Hader finished strong — making his midseason slump all the more bewildering. What happens if the bizarro Hader returns? San Diego will be done, that’s what will happen. Sure, you can say the same thing about every team that leans on a primary closer — but not every team saw its relief ace pitch like Hader did in August. — Doolittle

    One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Padres struggled mightily against their Southern California rivals this season, losing 14 of 19 and getting outscored by a combined 62 runs. To beat L.A., they’ll need to make sure Yu Darvish pitches as often as possible and Sean Manaea doesn’t pitch against the Dodgers at all. They’ll need Soto and Manny Machado to be at their best. They’ll need Hader to be the lockdown closer they thought they were getting at the start of August. And they’ll need contributions from several others. Most of all, perhaps, they’ll need to summon some confidence. — Gonzalez

    Better pack for the whole month

    Atlanta Braves

    No. 2 seed | 101-61 | NL East champs

    NLDS opponent: Phillies (61.2% chance of advancing)

    World Series odds: 13.2% | Caesars odds: +600

    Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 24

    How they could stay around longer: If the bullpen falls into place like it did last October, look out. The Braves’ are entering the playoffs with a more stable rotation outlook than a year ago, so Brian Snitker shouldn’t need to lean quite as heavily on his fireman as he did en route to the 2021 title. But even if he does, the Atlanta bullpen as a group has been smoking hot of late — led by trade acquisition Raisel Iglesias, who has allowed one earned run in 27 outings since he joined the Braves. Kenley Jansen has been very good, as have Collin McHugh, A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee. If Tyler Matzek can find last season’s consistency, there might not be a bad lever for Snitker to pull. — Doolittle

    What could send them home early: A couple of lifeless cutters in the wrong situation by Jansen. This isn’t to pick on Jansen. He’s had an excellent first season in Atlanta. He leads the NL in saves and is on a pretty good roll entering the playoffs. But he still isn’t the shutdown hammer he was during his prime, and the Braves are such a complete team that there isn’t much else that might be a glaring issue. — Doolittle

    One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Braves and Dodgers have met in back-to-back NLCS, splitting the two series, and they seem poised square off again. Outside of the Astros, the Braves might be the closest to matching the Dodgers’ depth and balance. Their separator could be in the bullpen. The three guys who entered this season as the Dodgers’ most important back-end relievers are either lost for the year (Daniel Hudson), pitching in low-leverage situations because of ineffectiveness (Craig Kimbrel) or recovering from injury (Blake Treinen). The Braves are as deep as ever in the back end of their bullpen, and this is a clear advantage for them. — Gonzalez

    Most likely to be playing in November

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    No. 1 seed | 111-51 | NL West champs

    NLDS opponent: Padres (75.2% chance of advancing)

    World Series odds: 34.2% | Caesars odds: +300

    Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2

    Why they are the team to beat in all of MLB: During the regular season, depth is what jumps to mind. L.A. has a roster and system of processes with so much quality redundancy built in that it’s hard to remember a time when we didn’t simply pencil the Dodgers in for a playoff spot before a season began. Depth isn’t irrelevant in the playoffs, but it’s clearly not as big a factor with the possible exception of the back of the bullpen. The thing is, the Dodgers aren’t just about depth. They are about all of the things, and a team with star power like this has a talent edge on everyone. And, oh yeah, they just won 111 games with the run differential that suggests they were actually a little unlucky. — Doolittle

    What could send them home early: The term “Achilles’ heel” has become such a sports cliche. If the Dodgers falter, maybe we’ll have to update it to “L.A. closer.” Like in the NFL, you might say, “They have an airtight defense but their L.A. closer is the lack of a quality third corner.” The Dodgers have run roughshod over the majors all season and have such a depth of impact talent in the organization that it’s dizzying. And yet they enter the playoffs with an uncertain end-of-game situation because of the struggles of Craig Kimbrel. It’s hard to fathom. — Doolittle

    Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: First, a tangible one: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. The Dodgers’ dynamic top-of-the-lineup trio is what separates them from everyone, even the most elite. No team can boast the combination of bat-to-ball skills, power and baserunning that those three possess in abundance. –

    Now, an intangible one: Revenge. Betts, Turner and Freeman were not with the Dodgers when they lost the 2017 World Series to an Astros team that was later found to have illegally stolen signs. But a few others — Clayton Kershaw, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger and Austin Barnes — were. And beating the Astros on this stage would qualify as the ultimate payback, no matter how much these rosters have changed over the last five years. — Gonzalez

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  • The playoff field is set! Here’s why this could be the greatest MLB postseason since … well, maybe ever

    The playoff field is set! Here’s why this could be the greatest MLB postseason since … well, maybe ever

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    The regular season is officially in the books (OK, maybe there is still a game or two trickling slowly to its finish as you read this) and the 2022 MLB playoffs are set to start Friday — and this year’s postseason could be epic.

    In addition to a new format that features 12 teams and a three-game wild-card round that is guaranteed to bring drama to October from the very start, there are so many storylines to follow throughout that it has a chance to be an all-time great month of baseball.

    Below, we highlight the 12 themes that will dominate the entire sport as the new 12-team format begins.

    See playoff schedule & bracket

    1. This is the best playoff format … ever

    I think baseball finally nailed it. Yes, there are those who will always favor the old setups of two pennants or four division winners, but the 12-team arrangement is an improvement over 10 teams (which had been the norm for the past decade). The do-or-die wild-card game, which had been around since 2012, never felt right and, frankly, never really turned into the must-see drama that the sports world stopped everything to watch anyway.

    As we saw with the temporary 16-team bracket in 2020, these quick, three-game series are fun. They’re still plenty pressure-packed, but they feel more like baseball than a winner-take-all matchup.

    Crucially, this format still rewards the best teams with a first-round bye and the opportunity to rest a pitching staff and line up a rotation. My only nit with where baseball landed this year is that a seven-game division series would be better than five — maybe next year, when the start of the season won’t be delayed by a lockout.

    2. There’s a 111-win superteam and nobody is sure what to make of its World Series chances

    The Los Angeles Dodgers won 111 games — the most ever for a National League team in a 162-game season and a total topped only by the 2001 Seattle Mariners and 1998 New York Yankees. If they win it all, they go down alongside that Yankees team as one of the greatest of all time; if they don’t win it all, they’re relegated to the back pages of history alongside those Mariners.

    Since 2017, the Dodgers have had four 104-win seasons, a remarkably long period of domination … but just one World Series title. Their sole championship came in the shortened 2020 season, with playoff games played in front of empty stadiums or at neutral sites. It counts — or as a friend of mine who is a longtime die-hard Dodgers fan told me, it counts as one-third of a title. And don’t forget that teams were allowed to play with 28-man rosters that postseason, which allowed the Dodgers to use starters as relievers and relievers as starters and do things they might not have been able to do with a 26-man roster.

    Alden Gonzalez had a good breakdown of the pressure the Dodgers face this October. In a sense, they’re playing for two championships: 2022 and a validation of 2020. While manager Dave Roberts told ESPN he “absolutely” considers the Dodgers a dynasty — and four 104-win seasons certainly back that claim up — two titles would definitely secure their place in history as one of the greatest teams of all time.

    3. We’ve got a real chance of a repeat

    After winning the World Series in 2021, the Atlanta Braves lost Freddie Freeman to the Dodgers — and got younger and better, winning 101 games and their fifth straight division title. No team has repeated as World Series champs since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000; the Braves have the power, the pitching and the momentum — after stealing the NL East in the final week with a three-game sweep of the New York Mets — to do it.

    And it’s not just a repeat, the Braves might be on their way to a dynasty here. Their turnaround from a 10½-game deficit to the division title began when they called up Michael Harris II to play center field in late May and moved Spencer Strider to the rotation. From June 1 — the first win in a 14-game winning streak — to the end of the regular season, they went 78-34. Strider’s injured oblique might keep him out of the playoffs, but they still have Max Fried, 20-game winner Kyle Wright and October hero of the past Charlie Morton, plus a lineup that led the NL in home runs.

    4. Speaking of dynasties … what do we make of the Houston Astros?

    You might have noticed by now, but there are a lot of good teams at the top of this year’s playoff bracket. We have four 100-win clubs in the Dodgers, Astros, Braves and Mets, with the Yankees finishing at 99 wins. The you-can’t-predict-baseball nature of the postseason doesn’t guarantee we’ll see two of these teams in the World Series, but if we do, there’s a good chance we’ll see a classic series. The last matchup of 100-win teams in the World Series was 2017, when the Astros beat the Dodgers in seven thrilling games. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1970 to have two 100-win teams in the World Series.

    The Astros also have four 100-win seasons since 2017, including 107 in 2019 and 106 this season. Sign-stealing scandal or not, if they win the World Series, perhaps they go down as the dominant franchise of this era. And an added bonus? After 25 years of managing in the big leagues and making his 12th trip to the postseason, manager Dusty Baker is hoping to finally win that final game of the season.

    To make matters more interesting, the Astros appear on a collision course to meet the Yankees in the American League Championship Series for the third time since 2017. Remember the war of words in the spring between Astros owner Jim Crane and Yankees general manager Brian Cashman after Cashman cried that the only thing that had stopped the Yankees in previous seasons from reaching the World Series was “something that was so illegal and horrific.” A Yankees-Astros ALCS would be an epic battle — even if it is one Evil Empire versus another.

    5. New York baseball is B-A-C-K

    This is now the Yankees’ 13th season since last appearing in a World Series in 2009 — an unacceptable length of time for baseball’s richest and most historically successful franchise with 27 titles in a sport where the wealthiest teams have a decided advantage. Longtime fans will note the Yankees are closing in on the infamous World Series drought from 1982 to 1995, the reign of terror era under George Steinbrenner when he cycled through 13 managers and seven general managers.

    On the other side of town: The Mets won 100 games for just the fourth time in franchise history and first time since 1988, but they enter the postseason with the bitter taste of defeat after losing that final series to the Braves. Everyone knows that Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer can carry a team through a postseason — but deGrom allowed 14 runs and six home runs in 21 innings over his final four starts, so the Mets will need him to find that groove where he posted a 1.66 ERA over his first seven starts after returning in August. Still, this is hardly a two-man team: Pete Alonso led the NL in RBIs, Francisco Lindor might finish in the top 10 of the MVP voting, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker are solid 3-4 starters and Edwin Diaz has been a lockdown closer. The Mets have had their moments since that run of success in the 1980s, including two World Series appearances, but it’s been 36 years since their iconic 1986 team won it all.

    6. Did you really think we forgot about Aaron Judge?

    Yes, both teams have made New York baseball interesting all season, but nobody has been more at the center of that than the man who just finished up a 62-home run campaign — and has fans of both New York teams envisioning his free agency will end with him signing with their club.

    Now, we have Judge trying to cap off what might be arguably the greatest season of any player in history — by that, I mean a historic regular season, a great postseason and a World Series title. Ted Williams in 1941? Didn’t even win the pennant. Carl Yastrzemski in 1967? The highest single-season WAR for a position player other than Babe Ruth, but the Red Sox lost the World Series. Bob Gibson in 1968? A 1.12 ERA and a record 17 strikeouts in one World Series game, but he lost Game 7. Dwight Gooden in 1985? The Mets missed the playoffs. Pedro Martinez in 1999? The Red Sox lost in the ALCS. Barry Bonds in 2001? The Giants didn’t make the playoffs. Bonds in 2002? He had a great postseason, but the Giants lost Game 7 of the Fall Classic. Mookie Betts in 2018? A 10.7-WAR season that matches Judge and the Red Sox won the World Series, but Betts had a lackluster postseason (.210/.300/.323).

    7. Can the GOAT go out on top?

    Let’s not forget the other slugger who made home run history this season — Albert Pujols. Every player would love to go out on top, either still playing well or with a dogpile on the field. Almost none of them do. Pujols and Yadier Molina have a chance to do that — and maybe Adam Wainwright joins them in retirement as well (he’s yet to officially announce his status for 2023).

    The three St. Louis Cardinals legends reunited this season when Pujols returned after a 10-year exile, and all three will play a key role in what happens to the club in October. As will Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, two of the greatest players of their generation who will likely finish 1-2 in the MVP voting in the NL — and who both seek their first trip to the World Series.

    8. The playoff drought-busters

    While the Cardinals come into this postseason with loads of October experience, there are two franchises about to get their first taste of the playoffs in a long, long time. The Seattle Mariners and Philadelphia Phillies ended the sport’s two longest playoff droughts in securing wild-card spots, although both teams will be on the road for the first round — Seattle at Toronto, Philadelphia at St. Louis.

    When Cal Raleigh hit his pinch-hit walk-off home run to clinch a wild-card spot, the Mariners celebrated like they had won the World Series. Can you blame them? Twenty-one years is a long time between playoff appearances. Sure, they had plenty of terrible teams along the way, but also several near misses: 93 wins in 2002 and 2003, 88 wins in 2007, one win short in 2014, three short in 2016, alive until the final day last season. They aren’t even guaranteed a home playoff game if they don’t beat the Blue Jays, although you can bet the watch party at T-Mobile Park will have a playoff-like atmosphere.

    The good news is Julio Rodriguez returned from his back problem to play a couple of games at the end of the regular season (and homered in the season finale). The bad news is second-half spark plug Sam Haggerty and outfielder/DH Jesse Winker both just landed on the injured list. The rotation and bullpen are healthy, however — Luis Castillo looks like a legitimate ace when he’s on, while Logan Gilbert had a 2.00 ERA in September, allowing one run or less in five of his six starts. If you like a good underdog story, believe in the Mariners.

    Meanwhile, the Phillies had the majors’ second-longest playoff drought, making it for the first time since 2011. They have Bryce Harper, back in the postseason for the first time since 2017, and power-hitting Kyle Schwarber, who led the NL in home runs. Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez (2.95 ERA since July 16) are a strong rotation trio. I wouldn’t bet on them in the tough NL, but there are similarities here in roster construction to the 2019 Nationals, who went from the wild card to World Series champs.

    9. The World Series curses we don’t talk about enough

    The Cleveland Guardians are trying to win their first World Series since 1948. The San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays are trying to win their first one, while the aforementioned Mariners remain the only franchise never to play in a World Series.

    The Guardians’ World Series drought has never received as much attention as the ones for the Red Sox and Cubs did, but it’s now been 74 years since the Cleveland franchise won it all — longer than the 1986 Red Sox had gone (68 years) when they lost to the Mets. How about winning it all in the first season with the new nickname? They might make a movie out of that given this list of Cleveland’s postseason heartbreaks:

    • 1995: The best team in baseball that year, but they lost the World Series to the Braves.

    • 1997: Blew a ninth-inning lead in Game 7 of the World Series to the Marlins and lost in extra innings.

    • 2007: Lost the ALCS to the Red Sox after being up 3-1.

    • 2016: Were up 3-1 on the Cubs in the World Series and lost Game 7, again, in extra innings.

    • 2017: Lost the division series to the Yankees after being up 2-0.

    And then there’s the team that’s been around since 1969 — and never won it all. The Padres made World Series appearances in 1984 and 1998, but this is just the seventh postseason trip in franchise history.

    But these aren’t your older brother’s Padres. This is a team that has spent the past three seasons acquiring an All-Star squad of talent while playing with a brash style that could make it very popular this postseason — if the Padres can stick around long enough for national fans to get familiar with their stars. They’ve gone all-in to dethrone the Dodgers in recent seasons — only to fall well short. But they squeaked in, and anything can happen in the playoffs, right? Especially with Manny Machado and Juan Soto and Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish and a suddenly rejuvenated Blake Snell (1.76 ERA over his final seven starts). The Mets-Padres wild-card series is the one to watch — with the winner facing the Dodgers in a colossal division series showdown.

    10. The redemption stories

    Let’s see here. We’ve got Justin Verlander, who after missing 2021 with Tommy John surgery, came back and went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA while leading the American League in wins, ERA, WHIP and lowest batting average allowed. His status as future Hall of Famer is secure, but with a big October and another World Series championship for the Astros, his legacy becomes that of an inner-circle Hall of Famer. DeGrom and Scherzer missed some time, and deGrom sputtered at the end of the season, but that dynamic pair could carry the Mets to their first title since 1986. And then of course, there is Clayton Kershaw. Yes, he got his ring a couple of years ago, but he was injured last October, and he hasn’t won a ring in a full season with a normal postseason. How will he perform?

    11. The October introduction of some legit young stars

    As my colleague Kiley McDaniel pointed out recently, this is the best rookie class since Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki debuted in 2001 — and most of the biggest names will be playing in the postseason (sorry, Adley Rutschman). We’ve got Rodriguez leading the Mariners and Harris and Strider on the Braves.

    But it’s not just the rookies who will remind us how bright the future of baseball is this postseason …

    While we often think of the Rays as a parade of bullpen arms, they also have two budding young superstars in Wander Franco and Shane McClanahan who could power another small-market success story this postseason. And across the AL East, Alek Manoah, Alejandro Kirk, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. form a young core that makes the Blue Jays a team nobody wants to face this postseason. Of course, the question we’ll all be waiting to see answered is how these young stars will handle the bright lights of October … or should we say November.

    12. It’s an October so great — it could take part of November to finish it

    That’s right, thanks to the combination of the new format and the MLB lockout pushing back the start of the season, Game 7 of the 2022 World Series would take place on Nov. 5, the latest date of a playoff game in MLB history.

    If every series goes the distance, we’ll get 53 postseason games with all of these incredible storylines fueling the possibility that any given night can become a must-see moment for baseball fans. Of course, in the end we need great games to have a great postseason.

    That’s what still makes 1986 the gold standard for all postseasons. There were just 20 playoff games that October — the seven-game ALCS between the Red Sox and Angels, the six-game NLCS between the Mets and Astros, then the seven-game World Series when the Mets beat the Red Sox. Five of the 20 games went extra innings. Eight were decided by one run. Several are all-time classics, including Game 5 of the ALCS; Games 3, 5 and 6 of the NLCS; and Games 6 and 7 of the World Series.

    The stage is set. I’m going with the Dodgers over the Astros. I’ll take Kershaw versus Verlander in Game 7 of the World Series, thank you very much.

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