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Tag: Jerome Powell

  • Fed report on SVB collapse faults bank’s managers — and central bank regulators

    Fed report on SVB collapse faults bank’s managers — and central bank regulators

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    Silicon Valley Bank’s dramatic failure in early March was the product of mismanagement and supervisory missteps, compounded by a dose of social media frenzy, the Federal Reserve concluded in a highly anticipated report released Friday.

    Michael S. Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision appointed by President Joe Biden, said in the exhaustive probe of the March 10 collapse of SVB that myriad factors coalesced to bring down what had been the nation’s 17th-largest bank.

    Among them were bank executives who committed “textbook” failures in managing interest rate risk, Fed regulators who failed to understand the depth of SVB’s problems and then were too slow to react, and a social media frenzy that may have accelerated the institution’s demise.

    Barr called for broad changes in the way regulators approach the nation’s complex and interwoven financial system.

    “Following Silicon Valley Bank’s failure, we must strengthen the Federal Reserve’s supervision and regulation based on what we have learned,” he said.

    “As risks in the financial system continue to evolve, we need to continuously evaluate our supervisory and regulatory framework and be humble about our ability to assess and identify new and emerging risks,” Barr added.

    A senior Fed official said increased capital and liquidity might have helped SVB survive. Central bank officials likely will turn their attention to cultural changes, noting that risks at SVB were not thoroughly examined. Future changes could see standardized liquidity requirements to a broader range of banks, and tighter supervision of compensation for bank managers.

    Bank stocks were higher following the report’s release, with the SPDR S&P Bank ETF up about 1.3%.

    In a stunning move that continues to reverberate across the banking system and through financial markets, regulators shuttered SVB following a run on deposits triggered by liquidity concerns. To meet capital requirements, the bank was forced to sell long-dated Treasury notes at a loss incurred as rising interest rates ate into principal value.

    Barr noted that SVB’s deposit run was exacerbated by fear spread on social media outlets that the bank was in trouble, combined with the ease of withdrawing deposits in the digital age. The phenomenon is something that regulators need to note for the future, he said.

    “[T]he combination of social media, a highly networked and concentrated depositor base, and technology may have fundamentally changed the speed of bank runs,” Barr said in the report. “Social media enabled depositors to instantly spread concerns about a bank run, and technology enabled immediate withdrawals of funding.”

    He used a broad brush in discussing the Fed’s failures, not mentioning San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly, under whose jurisdiction SVB sat. Senior Fed officials, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to speak frankly, said regional presidents aren’t generally responsible for direct supervision of the banks in their districts.

    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he welcomed the Barr probe and its internal criticism of Fed actions during the crisis.

    “I agree with and support his recommendations to address our rules and supervisory practices, and I am confident they will lead to a stronger and more resilient banking system,” Powell said in a statement.

    SVB was a darling of the tech industry as a place to turn to for high-flying companies in need of growth financing. In turn, the bank used billions in uninsured deposits as a base for lending.

    The collapse, which happened over the matter of just a few days, sparked fears that depositors would lose their money as many of the accounts were above the $250,000 threshold for Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. insurance. Signature Bank, which used a similar business model, also failed.

    As the crisis unfolded, the Fed rolled out emergency lending measures while guaranteeing that depositors wouldn’t lose their money. While the moves have largely stemmed the panic, they spurred comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis and have led to calls for reversing some of the deregulatory measures taking in recent years.

    Senior Fed officials said changes to the Dodd-Frank reforms helped spur the crisis, though they also acknowledge that the SVB case also was a failure of supervision. A change approved in 2018 reduced the stringency of stress testing for banks with less than $250 billion, a category in which SVB fell.

    “We need to develop a culture that empowers supervisors to act in the face of uncertainty,” Barr wrote. “In the case of SVB, supervisors delayed action to gather more evidence even as weaknesses were clear and growing. This meant that supervisors did not force SVB to fix its problems, even as those problems worsened.”

    Areas the Fed is likely to focus on include the types of uninsured deposits that raised concerns during the SVB drama, as well as a general focus on capital requirements and the risk of unrealized losses that the bank had on its balance sheet.

    Barr noted that supervisory and regulatory changes likely won’t take effect for years.

    The General Accountability Office also released a report Friday on the bank failures that noted “risky business strategies along with weak liquidity and risk management” that contributed to the collapse of SVB and Signature.

    Correction: The General Accountability Office also released a report Friday. An earlier version misstated the name of the agency.

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  • U.S. consumer spending still strong despite slowing GDP, expert says

    U.S. consumer spending still strong despite slowing GDP, expert says

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    U.S. consumer spending still strong despite slowing GDP, expert says – CBS News


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    The stock market closed in positive territory Thursday despite the latest GDP report from the the Commerce Department showing that the economy grew at an annual rate of only 1.1% in the first quarter of 2023. Lori Bettinger, president of BancAlliance, spoke with CBS News about what the latest GDP figures mean for investors and consumers going forward.

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  • Fed Chair Powell meets Chinese counterpart Yi Gang

    Fed Chair Powell meets Chinese counterpart Yi Gang

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    BEIJING — The heads of the U.S. and Chinese central banks met in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement Friday.

    PBoC Governor Yi Gang and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “exchanged views” on China-U.S. economic and financial trends, the statement said, according to a CNBC translation.

    The meeting of the Fed and PBoC heads comes as political tensions between the world’s two largest economies have escalated and limited high-level interactions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said this week that she still hoped to visit China, without specifying when.

    Yi was attending the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C., the PBoC statement said. It did not include any photos.

    The U.S. Federal Reserve and IMF did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment outside of local business hours.

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  • Distress In New York City Real Estate: The Silver Lining

    Distress In New York City Real Estate: The Silver Lining

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    Although the Federal Reserve voted to raise rates another .25% at its second meeting of the year, there was a silver lining in the announcement.

    In his opening statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated significant rate hikes may not be needed going forward, which will bring much needed relief and stability to the commercial real estate market.

    Investors were bracing for a .50% bump following Powell’s congressional testimony several weeks earlier during which he implied a larger rate increase might be warranted in response to stronger than expected economic indicators, especially in the labor market. Additionally, the annual inflation rate for February was 6%, still higher than the Fed’s 2% target, but below the peak of 9.1% in June.

    Cause and Effect

    The Fed’s revised Summary of Economic Projections released in tandem with the rate announcement left the projected median fed funds rate at 5.1% at the end of 2023, meaning the central bank is close to reaching its terminal rate since the new fed funds target range is between 4.75% and 5.00%. If this holds, only modest increases may be on the horizon.

    Addressing the banking crisis, Powell stressed that all deposits are safe and that the banking system is sound and resilient with strong capital and liquidity. Silicon Valley Bank was an “outlier” in which management exposed the bank to significant liquidity and interest-rate risk without hedging it. As a result, the bank was vulnerable to a rapid and massive bank run by a large, concentrated group of connected depositors.

    Mortgage Resets and Mortgage Maturities: Why Real Estate Type Matters

    Fortunately, the economic fundamentals of New York City have been on the rise despite inflation, interest rate hikes and bank closures. However, mortgage maturities and mortgage resets in this environment will affect each asset class differently.

    As outlined below, stronger asset classes should be able to withstand the headwinds facing the industry, while owners of weaker asset classes may need to make harder decisions moving forward.

    Stronger Asset Classes

    • Predominantly residential rental free market properties, small and large, are usually considered an inflation hedge, so we expect the top line to grow somewhat with or higher than inflation in the long run. In addition the perpetual supply constraint in New York City almost guarantees long-term growth in this sub-segment of multifamily.
    • Affordable housing, specifically Project Based Section 8 properties and buildings that can lend themselves to affordable preservation execution will remain in demand. These assets are attractive because they offer allowable budget based increases, or OCAF (operating costs for Project Based Section 8), coupled with the ability to receive a tax abatement and/or subsidies. In addition, private equity, Mission Driven Capital has moved into this space in the past decade with interest accelerating since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Weaker Asset Classes

    • Office buildings, primarily Class B and C office buildings in transition, which may be partially vacant, will be challenged. We examined options for these assets in a previous Forbes article. However, some Class A office assets are now beginning to suffer from the short-term effects of mortgage resets and maturities combined with higher vacancy rates and lower values as well. The New York City Metro area (New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania), will see approximately $15.7 billion of loan maturities on office buildings by year end 2024, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis based on data from Trepp.
    • Condominium projects in the middle of construction may be at risk. The spike in interest rates has led to much slower sellouts and lower pricing. As a result, construction loans, which are usually floating rate, increase the immediate carrying costs in addition to the challenge to pay them down (through the sale of units) or refinance out of them. In Brooklyn, a New York City borough with a population of 2.6 million, condo sales in 4Q22 fell 19.2% year-over-year to 846, according to Douglas Elliman. During the same period, listing inventory fell 12.5% to 977 units, which is only a 3.5 month supply, compared to a 12 month supply in 4Q18.
    • Predominantly rent stabilized property valuations have suffered as a result of higher borrowing costs as well as the Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act (HSTPA) of 2019, which prevents adequate rent increases for stabilized units. Therefore, mortgage resets and maturities will strongly affect this sub-segment of the multifamily market, a topic we explored in detail in a previous Forbes article. Most vulnerable are the approximately 795 rent stabilized buildings with 41,000 units acquired between 2016 to 2019 before HSTPA was passed, according to an Ariel’s analysis of sales of buildings with over 10 units. The fundamentals for these assets have changed drastically not only because of market conditions but because of HSTPA.

    Near Term vs. Long Term

    Our Capital Services team has been fielding calls from clients concerned about the bank closures and reaching out to lenders. It’s reassuring that the recent turmoil in the banking sector isn’t the result of sour commercial real estate loans or questionable underwriting, but macro issues that are working their way through the economy.

    What we have seen is a few select banks stepping up and filling the void left by Signature Bank. “Long-term, we believe other lenders will take market share, mostly in the safer multifamily asset class (regulated or not),” said Matt Dzbanek, Senior Director of Ariel’s Capital Services Group. “However, in the short-term, valuations and cost will suffer. We remain very bullish on New York City’s fundamentals and always have different financing options even in this tougher environment.”

    Dzbanek said he remains optimistic, noting that most lenders he’s working with are moving through deals at a diligent pace. “We’re getting deals done,” he said. “We’re in the middle of a closing as we speak and signing multiple term sheets every week. So, as of now, the biggest thing we’re seeing is maybe proceeds pulled back a little bit or maybe a higher rate. But so far, lenders still have a good appetite for New York City real estate.”

    Dzbanek’s pipeline is a healthy balance between both acquisition and refinance opportunities. In this climate he is advising clients to run a process and identify multiple lenders for each project to mitigate risk. “When there is uncertainty in the market, it’s even more important for borrowers to be exposed to as many options and banking relationships as possible,” he said.

    While there will be volatility in the short-term, this crisis will firm up a new bedrock for New York City commercial real estate lending. We believe that this period will be an opportunity for new lenders to step up and gain market share and increase their presence in New York City.

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    Shimon Shkury, Contributor

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  • Nearly $100 billion in deposits pulled from banks; officials call system ‘sound and resilient’

    Nearly $100 billion in deposits pulled from banks; officials call system ‘sound and resilient’

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    A First Citizens Bank branch in Dunwoody, Georgia, on Thursday, March 23, 2023.

    Elijah Nouvelage | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Regulators again assured the public that the banking system is safe, as fresh data showed customers recently pulled nearly $100 billion in deposits.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and more than a dozen other officials convened a special closed meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council on Friday.

    A readout from the session indicated that a New York Fed staff member briefed the group on “market developments.”

    “The Council discussed current conditions in the banking sector and noted that while some institutions have come under stress, the U.S. banking system remains sound and resilient,” the statement said. “The Council also discussed ongoing efforts at member agencies to monitor financial developments.”

    There were no other details provided on the meeting.

    The readout, released shortly after the market closed Friday, came around the same time as new Fed data showed that bank customers collectively pulled $98.4 billion from accounts for the week ended March 15.

    That would have covered the period when the sudden failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank rocked the industry.

    Data show that the bulk of the money came from small banks. Large institutions saw deposits increase by $67 billion, while smaller banks saw outflows of $120 billion.

    The withdrawals brought total deposits down to just over $17.5 trillion and represented about 0.6% of the total. Deposits have been on a steady decline over the past year or so, falling $582.4 billion since February 2022, according to the Fed data released Friday.

    Money market mutual funds have seen assets rise over the past two weeks, up $203 billion to $3.27 trillion, according to Investment Company Institute data through March 22.

    Earlier this week, Powell also sought to assure the public that the banking system is safe.

    “You’ve seen that we have the tools to protect depositors when there’s a threat of serious harm to the economy or to the financial system, and we’re prepared to use those tools,” Powell said Wednesday during a news conference that followed the Fed’s decision to hike benchmark interest rates another quarter percentage point. “And I think depositors should assume that their deposits are safe.”

    Powell noted that deposit flows “have stabilized over the past week” following what he called “powerful actions” from the Fed to backstop the system.

    Banks have been flocking to emergency lending facilities set up after the failures of SVB and Signature. Data released Thursday showed that institutions took a daily average of $116.1 billion of loans from the central bank’s discount window, the highest since the financial crisis, and have taken out $53.7 billion from the Bank Term Funding Program.

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  • The market’s initial reaction to a Fed rate hike is ‘almost always a head fake,’ Jim Cramer says

    The market’s initial reaction to a Fed rate hike is ‘almost always a head fake,’ Jim Cramer says

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    CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on Friday that this week was the latest example of the market gone crazy after a Federal Reserve meeting.

    But based on past market reactions to the central bank’s previous rate hikes, this week’s activity may prove not to be that meaningful in the long run, he said.

    related investing news

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    The initial reaction to the Fed’s moves is “almost always a head fake,” Cramer said.

    The market had a big reaction this week following the Fed’s latest move, Cramer noted — with a hard sell-off on Wednesday, followed by a small comeback on Thursday and a chaotic session Friday. While newfound turmoil in the European financial sector dragged down stocks early Friday, they recovered after those markets closed.

    Following the central bank’s quarter point rate hike on Wednesday, there have been nine increases in just over a year.

    The market has tracked a pattern in which — after the first three days following a Fed decision — it will usually go in the opposite direction the next month, Cramer said.

    When looking at the previous eight rate hikes this cycle, the market reversed direction over the following month seven out of eight times. (There is not enough data to run an analysis on the February rate hike.)

    The only exception was the second one that occurred in early May. That prompted a hard sell-off that lasted several days, and markets were basically flat in the month that followed.

    Generally, when you zoom out three months, the initial market moves — whether they are positive or negative — tend to reverse themselves every time, Cramer said.

    The pattern is too overwhelming to ignore, Cramer said.

    To be sure, it remains to be seen whether that same pattern will hold this time, or whether the negative initial reaction to the Fed’s move this week will reverse itself.

    This time, with new emergencies cropping up practically every day, especially in the banking sector, it “feels dangerous” to predict a rally over the next three months, Cramer said.

    But the bottom line is, we’ve been here before, he stressed.

    “So, take a deep breath, drink some tea and remember that the initial reaction to the Fed’s rate hikes has been wrong every time over the past year,” Cramer said.

    Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing

    Click here to download Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing at no cost to help you build long-term wealth and invest smarter.

    Jay Powell was a bit more hawkish than I expected, Cramer says

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  • Bank fears will likely lead to even more market volatility in the week ahead

    Bank fears will likely lead to even more market volatility in the week ahead

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  • Video: Fed Raises Interest Rates a Quarter of a Point

    Video: Fed Raises Interest Rates a Quarter of a Point

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    Jerome H. Powell said that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation amid turmoil in the banking system.

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    The New York Times

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Jerome Powell flipped the script

    CNBC Daily Open: Jerome Powell flipped the script

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    Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve on March 22, 2023 in Washington, DC.

    Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    Markets had expected the Fed’s quarter-point hike. Powell’s warnings on the economy caught them off guard.

    What you need to know today

    • Asked by a senator if Treasury is considering guaranteeing all bank deposits without congressional approval, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said it is not.
    • PRO GameStop surged 35.24% on the news that the company’s had its first profitable quarter in two years. But analysts are warning investors not to jump into the stock because it’s still facing longer-term headwinds.

    The bottom line

    The last few Federal Open Markets Committee meetings have followed a pattern. The central bank would take a hawkish stance and hike rates aggressively, spooking markets. Then Powell’s comments at the press conference would soothe investors, who’d focus on his dovish remarks (probably unintentional and to his chagrin, I’d imagine).

    This time, Powell flipped the script.

    Markets had expected a hike of 25 basis points, and that’s what they got. Being right contributes to a sense of certainty, so all three major indexes actually rose after the Fed’s announcement. Indeed, Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist of LPL Financial, noted “markets are responding well to the expected 25 basis points rate hike.”

    Then Powell started speaking. At first, his reassurances that the “banking system is sound and resilient” continued soothing markets. Then Powell started talking about “tighter credit conditions for households and businesses” that could “easily have a significant macroeconomic effect.” Worse, these conditions were not reflected in stock indexes since they “don’t necessarily capture lending conditions.” This signaled that the economy could be in a worse place than many had thought, wrote CNBC’s Patti Domm.

    As if trying to prove Powell wrong, markets began sliding about an hour after Powell’s speech and couldn’t arrest their decline. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.63%, the S&P 500 fell 1.65% and the Nasdaq Composite sank 1.6%.

    They were certainly not helped by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s clarification that, contrary to how markets took her Tuesday comments, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation was not considering “blanket insurance” for banking deposits — as I’d warned in this newsletter yesterday.

    The good news is that the Fed forecast it’ll hike interest rates only one more time — probably by another 25 basis points — before pausing. A cut, however, is not on the table, if Powell is to be believed. Amid the ongoing banking turmoil, coupled with the Fed’s warning about the broader economy, it might be better for investors not to fight the Fed.

    Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

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  • Federal Reserve hikes its key interest rate a quarter point

    Federal Reserve hikes its key interest rate a quarter point

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    The Federal Reserve is raising its key interest rate 0.25 percentage point, underscoring central bankers’ commitment to fighting inflation even if that heightens the financial pressure on the country’s banks.

    The Fed’s benchmark rate is rising to a range between 4.75% and 5%, the bank’s rate-setting body said Wednesday in a statement. That’s the highest level for the federal funds rate since 2006.

    The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10 and of New York’s Signature Bank two days later has spurred fear that worried depositors could rush to withdraw their money from other regional lenders, sparking a wider crisis.

    Bank wobble leads Fed to back off

    As recently as two weeks ago, the Fed appeared set for a steeper rate hike and and prepared to keep them elevated for longer. But a a startling deposit run at Silicon Valley Bank, closure of two smaller banks and takeover of two others created panic in the financial system. Many economists, as well as the Fed, noted that banks’ newfound caution following the turmoil would likely drag on the economy.

    “Before the recent events, we were clearly on track to continue with ongoing rate hikes. In fact, as of a couple weeks ago, it looked like we’d need to raise rates over the course of the year more than we expected,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in news conference.

    “The events of the last two weeks are likely to result in some tightening of credit conditions for households and businesses and, thereby, weigh on demand on the labor market and on inflation,” Powell added. “In principle, as a matter of fact, you can think of it as being the equivalent of a rate hike, or perhaps more than that. Of course, it’s not possible to make that assessment today with any precision whatsoever,” he said.


    Treasury Secretary Yellen tries to ease concerns over banking system

    05:41

    Powell also sought to calm fears about the stability of the broader banking system.

    “Our banking system is sound and resilient with strong capital and liquidity. We will continue to closely monitor conditions in the banking system and are prepared to use all of our tools as needed to keep it safe and sound,” he said.

    Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were both brought down, indirectly, by higher rates, whose rapid rise hurt the value of the Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed bonds they owned. As anxious depositors withdrew their money en masse, the banks had to sell the bonds at a loss to pay depositors. 

    Recession coming?

    The Fed’s latest policy statement signals its shift from fighting inflation at all costs to a more delicate balance between trying to bring down prices while tightening credit in ways that might further sap public confidence in banks and hurt the economy.

    “A dovish rate hike was delivered from the Fed today as they attempt to balance the risks of price stability and fighting inflation,” Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management said in a note. “Not signaling a higher terminal rate should send a message to market participants that the economy may be weaker than recent economic data suggests.”

    But with economic growth already subdued, even the small rate hike risks tipping the U.S. into a recession and driving the unemployment rate higher, economists said.

    “Even before the [banking] crisis we thought the economy was at high risk of recession this year and, with recent events likely to hit confidence and result in a significant further tightening in credit conditions we are more confident in that view now,” Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said in a report. “[W]ith the crisis making us more confident in our view that the economy will fall into recession soon, we suspect the Fed will be cutting rates again before too long.”

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  • Fed hikes rates by a quarter percentage point, indicates increases are near an end

    Fed hikes rates by a quarter percentage point, indicates increases are near an end

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    WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday enacted a quarter percentage point interest rate increase, expressing caution about the recent banking crisis and indicating that hikes are nearing an end.

    Along with its ninth hike since March 2022, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee noted that future increases are not assured and will depend largely on incoming data.

    “The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy,” the FOMC’s post-meeting statement said. “The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”

    That wording is a departure from previous statements which indicated “ongoing increases” would be appropriate to bring down inflation. Stocks fell during Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference. Some took Powell’s comments to mean that the central bank may be nearing the end of its rate hiking cycle, though he qualified that to say that the inflation fight isn’t over.

    “The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy,” the central bank leader said at his post-meeting news conference.

    However, Powell acknowledged that the events in the banking system were likely to result in tighter credit conditions.

    The softening tone in the central bank’s prepared statement came amid a banking crisis that has raised concerns about the system’s stability. The statement noted the likely impact from recent events.

    “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient,” the committee said. “Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.”

    During the press conference, Powell said the FOMC considered a pause in rate hikes in light of the banking crisis, but ultimately unanimously approved the decision to raise rates due to intermediate data on inflation and the strength of the labor market.

    “We are committed to restoring price stability and all of the evidence says that the public has confidence that we will do so, that will bring inflation down to 2% over time. It is important that we sustain that confidence with our actions, as well as our words,” Powell said.

    Rate cuts are not in our base case, says Fed Chair Powell

    The increase takes the benchmark federal funds rate to a target range between 4.75%-5%. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to a multitude of consumer debt like mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

    Projections released along with the rate decision point to a peak rate of 5.1%, unchanged from the last estimate in December and indicative that a majority of officials expect only one more rate hike ahead.

    Data released along with the statement shows that seven of the 18 Fed officials who submitted estimates for the “dot plot” see rates going higher than the 5.1% “terminal rate.”

    The next two years’ worth of projections also showed considerable disagreement among members, reflected in a wide dispersion among the “dots.” Still, the median of the estimates points to a 0.8 percentage point reduction in rates in 2024 and 1.2 percentage points worth of cuts in 2025.

    The statement eliminated all references to the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Markets had been closely watching the decision, which came with a higher degree of uncertainty than is typical for Fed moves.

    Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, speaks during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, March 22, 2023.

    Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Earlier this month, Powell had indicated that the central bank may have to take a more aggressive path to tame inflation. But a fast-moving banking crisis thwarted any notion of a more hawkish move – and contributed to a general market sentiment that the Fed will be cutting rates before the year comes to a close.

    Estimates released Wednesday of where Federal Open Market Committee members see rates, inflation, unemployment and gross domestic product underscored the uncertainty for the policy path.

    Officials also tweaked their economic projections. They slightly increased their expectations for inflation, with a 3.3% rate pegged for this year, compared to 3.1% in December. Unemployment was lowered a notch to 4.5%, while the outlook for GDP nudged down to 0.4%.

    The estimates for the next two years were little changed, except the GDP projection in 2024 came down to 1.2% from 1.6% in December.

    The forecasts come amid a volatile backdrop.

    Despite the banking turmoil and volatile expectations around monetary policy, markets have held their ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up some 2% over the past week, though the 10-year Treasury yield has risen about 20 basis points, or 0.2 percentage points, during the same period.

    While late-2022 data had pointed to some softening in inflation, recent reports have been less encouraging.

    The personal consumption expenditures price index, a favorite inflation gauge for the Fed, rose 0.6% in January and was up 5.4% from a year ago – 4.7% when stripping out food and energy. That’s well above the central bank’s 2% target, and the data prompted Powell on March 7 to warn that interest rates likely would rise more than expected.

    But the banking issues have complicated the decision-making calculus as the Fed’s pace of tightening has contributed to liquidity problems.

    Closures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and capital issues at Credit Suisse and First Republic, have raised concerns about the state of the industry.

    While big banks are considered well-capitalized, smaller institutions have faced liquidity crunches due to the rapidly rising interest rates that have made otherwise safe long-term investments lose value. Silicon Valley, for instance, had to sell bonds at a loss, triggering a crisis of confidence.

    The Fed and other regulators stepped in with emergency measures that seem to have stemmed immediate funding concerns, but worries linger over how deep the damage is among regional banks.

    At the same, recession concerns persist as the rate increases work their way through the economic plumbing.

    An indicator that the New York Fed produces using the spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys put the chance of a contraction in the next 12 months at about 55% as of the end of February. The yield curve inversion has increased since then.

    However, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker puts first-quarter growth at 3.2%. Consumers continue to spend – though credit card usage is on the rise – and unemployment was at 3.6% while payroll growth has been brisk.

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  • Federal Reserve Hikes Interest Rates Again, Despite Bank Failures

    Federal Reserve Hikes Interest Rates Again, Despite Bank Failures

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    WASHINGTON ― The Federal Reserve on Wednesday continued to ramp up its efforts to slow the economy, despite recent bank failures caused partly by rising interest rates.

    The central bank announced it is raising interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point, the ninth rate hike since the Fed kicked off its battle against inflation in March 2022.

    Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, a financial analysis firm, said that continuing to hike interest rates runs contrary to the government’s recent efforts to stabilize banks.

    “The Fed’s decision to raise rates is incongruous with efforts to re-establish the stability of the financial system,” Zandi told HuffPost in an email. “It shows a willingness to roll the dice with the financial system and economy to get inflation down more quickly.”

    “The last few weeks of financial turmoil have shown that interest rate hikes are wreaking havoc on our financial system. Adding more fuel to the fire will only exacerbate the instability that is of the Fed’s own making.”

    – Rakeen Mabud, chief economist with Groundwork Collaborative

    Higher interest rates make money more expensive to borrow, causing people to spend less. The Fed is hoping the economy will cool off just enough that businesses set lower prices for goods and services.

    But another potential consequence of higher rates is financial instability ― not to mention potentially massive layoffs.

    Overall annual inflation has fallen from its peak of 9.1% last summer to 6% in February, but the recent pace of decline has been too slow for the Fed’s liking.

    The Fed’s strategy has been controversial from the start, with progressives calling on the central bank to lay off the rate hikes so as to avoid causing a recession. After all, the higher prices resulted partly from supply chain problems ― such as factories shutting down in China because of COVID ― that are entirely outside the Fed’s control.

    But the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank in California illustrated another way that interest rates can cause economic turmoil ― by making investors complacent about the risk of interest rates rising after a long period of cheap money.

    Customers and bystanders form a line outside a Silicon Valley Bank branch location on March 13. The bank’s failure sent shock waves throughout the U.S. and global banking systems.

    Silicon Valley Bank invested depositors’ money in low-yield government bonds that lost value when interest rates rose last year. When panicky depositors started withdrawing their money last month, the bank couldn’t pay them. (BuzzFeed, HuffPost’s parent company, banked with SVB.)

    “Today’s rate hike is a reckless move by Chair [Jerome] Powell and the Fed,” Rakeen Mabud, chief economist with Groundwork Collaborative, a group of progressive economic experts, said Wednesday. “Chair Powell knows that his aggressive rate-hiking campaign has the potential to cause mass unemployment and economic devastation for millions across the country.”

    “The last few weeks of financial turmoil have shown that interest rate hikes are wreaking havoc on our financial system,” she said. “Adding more fuel to the fire will only exacerbate the instability that is of the Fed’s own making.”

    In addition to overseeing the money supply, one of the Fed’s jobs is supervising banks ― which it seemingly failed to do in Silicon Valley Bank’s case, after Congress passed a law in 2018 telling regulators to go easy on regional financial institutions.

    The Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation swooped in to guarantee deposits at SVB and to make loans available to other regional banks with antsy depositors. Some Republican lawmakers decried the moves as a “bailout,” but officials insisted they had to make depositors whole in order to prevent a broader financial crisis.

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  • What to expect from today’s Federal Reserve meeting

    What to expect from today’s Federal Reserve meeting

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    What to expect from today’s Federal Reserve meeting – CBS News


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    The Federal Reserve will decide whether it needs to boost interest rates again at a meeting Wednesday. Inflation still remains high, but the nation’s recent banking crisis is causing concern over how the Fed should respond. CBS News senior White House and political correspondent Ed O’Keefe has more, and then Ann Berry, the founder of Threadneedle Strategies, joins CBS News to discuss the next steps for the Fed.

    Be the first to know

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  • Here’s everything the Federal Reserve is expected to do Wednesday

    Here’s everything the Federal Reserve is expected to do Wednesday

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    Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve.

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The Federal Reserve will close its two-day meeting Wednesday with a heavy air of uncertainty as the central bank moves forward in its efforts to bring down inflation and stabilize the troubled banking sector.

    At the moment, those two goals seem to be in conflict: Getting inflation down requires the same higher interest rates that have inflicted crisis-level effects on banks.

    Still, after much volatility markets seem to have coalesced around expectations that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will approve a 0.25 percentage point, or 25 basis point, increase.

    But that won’t be all that policymakers will have to address.

    They’re also on tap to update rate and economic projections, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell then will have to explain it all at his post-meeting news conference.

    Here’s a quick look at everything likely to happen.

    The rate call

    If the Fed goes ahead and raises its benchmark funds rate by a quarter point, that will take it to a target range of 4.75%-5%, its highest since late-2007.

    Up until the recent events in the banking industry, the rate hike was considered a no-brainer. Comments from Powell two weeks ago even had markets thinking the Fed could go half a point. The banking tumult has switched to no-hike vs. a quarter-point.

    “Everything is changed,” said Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies and a frequent Fed critic. “Now what I think they should do and what I think they will announce are the same namely, a very soft 25 basis point hike.”

    Markets agree: As of Wednesday morning, traders were assigning a more than 90% chance of a quarter-point move, according CME Group tracking.

    The statement and the Powell presser

    Lump these two together, because markets will be poring through both the post-meeting statement and Powell’s meeting with reporters afterwards for any and all clues about the Fed’s future path.

    One key sentence to focus on in the statement will be, “The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”

    Variations of that sentence have appeared in FOMC statements since the rate-hiking cycle began in March 2022, but could get altered this time around to suggest a less certain outlook.

    Beyond that, Powell will be looked at to provide assurances that the Fed is not on a pre-set hiking course and is well attuned to the dangers that the banking crisis are posing to policy.

    The chairman will say “we are very conscious of the financial issues and we are also concerned about inflation,” Sri-Kumar said. “That’s why we are hiking by 25 basis points. But we will be data dependent. We will not go up too much if it will cause financial trouble to return.”

    The dot plot

    Every three months, FOMC members fill out their individual projections for rates. Before the banking crisis, investors largely were expecting the Fed to raise its estimate for the peak, or terminal, rate beyond the 5.1% projection in December.

    That, too, has changed, and markets could be unpleasantly surprised by the resolve Fed officials have to fighting inflation even amid an ominous banking climate.

    Goldman Sachs is something of an outlier in that expects the Fed not to hike Wednesday. But it still is looking for three quarter-point raises in the ensuing meetings.

    “It does not make sense to tighten monetary policy amidst ongoing stress in the banking system that could present substantial downside risk to the economy,” Goldman economist David Mericle said in a note to clients Monday.

    Goldman sees the terminal rate projection rising to 5.375%.

    Likewise, Citigroup thinks markets are being too sanguine about where the Fed goes from here.

    Along with the pricing in of a hike at this meeting, markets are indicating that the tightening soon will be followed with at least a couple rate cuts before the end of the year to deal with a slowing economy. Pricing indicates a funds rate down to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, according to the CME tracker.

    “Markets are substantially underestimating the likelihood that policy rates will move higher and then remain at higher levels for longer, in our view,” Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote Tuesday. “Policymakers do not drop everything to cut rates aggressively when financial stability risks rise.”

    Hollenhorst cited several crises in recent memory during which the Fed either paused or cut, only to turn back around and start hiking shortly thereafter, the financial crisis of 2008 being one notable exception.

    Economic projections

    The Fed also will update its outlook on unemployment, inflation and gross domestic product.

    Economists largely expect a few tweaks.

    Goldman expects those revisions to reflect “somewhat higher GDP growth in 2023, a lower unemployment rate in 2023, and small upward revisions to the inflation numbers.”

    The inflation projections could be interesting. Recent data shows that prices and wages remain stubbornly above where the Fed feels comfortable.

    Research firm Morning Consult said Tuesday that its indexes point to inflation holding around the same growth rate in March as in February, an indicator that Fed rate hikes are not having their desired impact.

    “Despite continually elevated inflation prints, recent instability in the financial system could force the Federal Reserve to pause or slow down potential rate increases, adding to uncertainty about the trajectory of future prices,” the firm said.

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  • Biden White House closely watching Federal Reserve following bank failures | CNN Politics

    Biden White House closely watching Federal Reserve following bank failures | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    All eyes are trained on the Federal Reserve as it prepares to announce another potential interest rate hike Wednesday afternoon – exactly 10 days after the Biden administration stepped in with dramatic emergency actions to contain the fallout from two bank failures.

    Biden White House officials will be closely watching the highly anticipated rate decision – and monitoring every word of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s public comments – for any telling clues on how the central bank is processing what has emerged one of the most urgent economic crises of Joe Biden’s presidency.

    The moment creates a complex, if carefully observed, dynamic for the administration’s top economic officials who have spent much of the last two weeks engaged in regular discussions and consultations with Powell and Fed officials as they’ve navigated rapid and acute risks to the banking system.

    The Fed’s central role in not only supervising US banks and the stability of the financial system, but also in serving as a liquidity backstop in moments of systemic risk, has once again thrust the central bank back to center stage in the government’s effort to stabilize rattled markets.

    But Biden has made the central bank’s independence on monetary policy an unequivocal commitment – and has repeatedly underscored that he has confidence in the Fed’s central role in navigating inflation that has weighed on the US economy for more than a year and remained stubbornly persistent.

    Even as some congressional Democrats have directed fire at Powell for the rapid increase in interest rates and the risks the effort poses to a robust post-pandemic economic recovery, White House officials have taken pains not to shed light on their views publicly.

    Officials stress nothing in the last week has changed that mandate from Biden – and note that the widespread uncertainty about what action the Fed will take on rates only serves to underscore that reality.

    It’s a reality that comes at a uniquely inopportune time for a banking system that has shown clear signs of stabilizing in the last several days, but is still facing a level of anxiety among market participants and depositors about the durability of that shift.

    “I do believe we have a very strong and resilient banking system and all of us need to shore up the confidence of depositors that that’s the case,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said during remarks Tuesday in Washington.

    Yellen said a new emergency lending facility launched by the Fed, along with its existing discount window, are “working as intended to provide liquidity to the banking system.”

    But prior to the closures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, analysts had widely predicted that the Fed would unveil a half-point rate hike. But after the sudden collapse of the two banks that sent shockwaves across the global economy, there has been a growing belief among Wall Street analysts that the central bank will pull back, and only raise rates by a quarter-point – in part to try to alleviate concerns that the Fed’s historically aggressive rate hikes over the past year were precisely to blame for this month’s financial turmoil.

    But there are also concerns that a dramatic pullback, like choosing to forgo any rate increases altogether until a later meeting, would bring its own risks of signaling to the market that there are deeper systemic problems.

    It’s a conundrum top Fed officials started grappling with in the first of their two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday. How they choose to navigate the path ahead will remain behind closed doors until their policy statement is released Wednesday afternoon.

    Powell is scheduled to speak to reporters shortly after.

    For officials inside the Biden White House, Wednesday is poised to offer critical insight into how the central bank is grappling with its urgent priority of bringing down inflation, while at the same time, minimizing the risk of additional dominoes falling in the US banking sector.

    Those two imperatives – bringing prices down and maintaining stability across the US financial sector – are urgent priorities for the Biden White House, particularly as the president moves closer to a widely expected reelection announcement and the health of the economy remains the top issue for voters.

    Yet the Fed’s decision will come at a moment of accelerating political pressure on the Fed itself – and Powell specifically.

    Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, slammed Powell, saying he has failed at two of his main jobs, citing raising interest rates and his support of bank deregulation.

    “I opposed Chair Powell for his initial nomination, but his re-nomination. I opposed him because of his views on regulation and what he was doing to weaken regulation, but I think he’s failing in both jobs, both as oversight manager of these big banks which is his job and also what he’s doing with inflation,” Warren said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

    White House officials have made clear – with no hesitation – that Biden’s long-stated confidence in Powell is unchanged. Powell, who was confirmed for his second four-year term as Fed chair last year, announced last week that the Fed would launch a review into the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.

    Treasury and Fed officials, along with counterparts at other federal regulators and their international counterparts, have continued regular discussions this week as they’ve monitored the system in the wake of the weekend collapse, and eventual sale, of European banking giant Credit Suisse.

    US officials viewed the Credit Suisse collapse as unrelated to the crisis that took down the US banks a weekend prior, although they acknowledged it posed broader risks tied to confidence, or the potential lack thereof, in the system.

    In recent days, White House officials have begun to cautiously suggest that they see signs of the US economy stabilizing, following the turbulent aftermath of the closures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Biden, for his part, has credited the sweeping steps his administration announced – namely, the backstopping of all depositors’ funds held at the two institutions and the creation of an emergency lending program by the Federal Reserve – as having prevented a broader financial meltdown.

    He has also called on US regulators and lawmakers to strengthen financial regulations, though it is not yet clear what specific actions the president may ultimately throw his weight behind.

    Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre declined to comment Tuesday afternoon at the White House press briefing on how she and other officials were watching the Fed’s upcoming decision.

    “The Fed is indeed independent. We want to give them the space to make those monetary decisions and I don’t want to get ahead of that,” Jean-Pierre said. “I don’t even want to give any thoughts to what Jerome Powell might say tomorrow.”

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  • Banks are running scared. Is the Federal Reserve about to make things worse?

    Banks are running scared. Is the Federal Reserve about to make things worse?

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    The lightning collapse of three banks and financial industry rescue of a fourth has put a spotlight on the Federal Reserve’s decision this week over whether to continue raising interest rates.

    Just two weeks after Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested rates could rise even higher than previously projected in a bid to quash inflation, many analysts expect a no more than 0.25 percentage-point hike, while some experts are urging policy makers to hold the line for fear of further unsettling the banking system.

    “Expectations for the March [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting have changed abruptly over the last 10 days,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note on Monday, referring to the Fed panel that sets interest rates. “We expect the FOMC to pause at its March meeting this week because of stress in the banking system. While policymakers have responded aggressively to shore up the financial system, markets appear to be less than fully convinced that efforts to support small and midsize banks will prove sufficient.”

    The quandary highlights the multiple, and conflicting, issues facing the Fed. With key sectors of the economy going strong and inflation still more than double the Fed’s target rate of 2%, the central bank is keenly aware that any sign it is relenting in the battle against inflation could give rise to another wave of price increases. 

    At the same time, lifting the federal funds rate now could magnify the kind of problems at other lenders that led panicked depositors to yank their money out of Silicon Valley Bank. 

    “A financial accident has happened, and we are going from no landing to a hard landing,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at private equity firm Apollo Global Management, said in a note last week that predicted the Fed will keep rates steady when officials meet March 21-22.

    Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, also thinks the current stress on the nation’s banking system could make Fed officials think twice about hiking rates.

    “Many people, even myself, had been surprised that the Fed raised rates by [4.5 percentage] points in 11 months and nothing did break. It’s finally vindicating the view that the Fed can’t raise rates that fast without something happening,” she told CBS MoneyWatch.

    The Treasury problem

    While SVB failed partly because of financial missteps, analysts say rising interest rates played a critical role in its collapse. Flooded with customer deposits during the pandemic, the bank grew rapidly and put much of these funds into long-term Treasury bonds and mortgage securities. 

    But as the Fed jacked up rates, SVB’s investments lost value. That left the bank short on deposits just as customers spooked by SVB’s potential losses were rushing to withdraw their money. The concern now is that this pattern could repeat itself at other banks ill-prepared for further rate hikes.

    “We’re also seeing fear of balance-sheet issues at regional banks,” Bostjancic said. “There’s definitely evidence that banks, as they’ve received this tremendous inflow of deposits, a significant amount went into Treasury securities. There are other banks that are facing that issue.”

    Already, some customers at small and regional banks are moving their funds to the largest institutions, Financial Times correspondent Stephen Gandel told CBS News.


    Large banks see influx of new depositors following SVB collapse

    05:59

    Did the Fed make this mess?

    What led to SVB’s fast growth in deposits in the first place? More Americans were flush with cash in the early years of the pandemic, while the tech industry saw explosive growth. According to economists, both factors were fueled by the government’s response to the COVID-19 crisis: hosing consumers and businesses down with cash, while also keeping interest rates at zero for many months after the initial crisis in 2020 had passed.

    The danger now is that the Fed, having stepped on the gas too hard in recent years to keep the economy motoring forward, is now stomping on the brakes and risking a crash. 

    “Like the poor fool, the U.S. Federal Reserve overreacted to the inflation cold spell during the COVID crisis by easing financial conditions too far for too long,” Will Denyer of Gavekal Research wrote in a note. “The risk now is that the Fed has cranked the handle too far the other way … tightening conditions so much that it has initiated a disinflationary process that will overshoot to the downside, likely causing a recession.” 

    Financial conditions tightening

    The Fed’s main tool for controlling inflation is to use its benchmark overnight lending rate to slow the economy. But many economists say inflation is now cooling enough on its own without the need for additional help from the Fed, especially given the lag between monetary policy and economic growth. The current tumult in banking and in financial markets will also make lenders far more cautious, further containing inflationary pressures. 

    “Going forward banks, especially small and medium-sized banks, are likely to tighten their credit standards significantly,” Nationwide’s Bostjancic predicted. “Fed officials need to consider that more cautious bank lending will be an additional brake on economic activity, and it could be significant.”


    Former FDIC chair Sheila Bair on turmoil in the banking sector

    06:15

    By contrast, the Fed could very well decide that it has done enough to shore up the banking system following the collapse of SVB and New York’s Signature Bank and continue pushing up interest rates. After those failures, the Fed created a new lending program effectively insuring other banks’ Treasury holdings against losses for up to a year. 

    The upshot: The central bank could choose to stay the course on rate hikes as a sign of confidence in its policy measures and of its unremitting commitment to lower inflation.

    “What decision sends a message that they’re still cautious about inflation and believe in the stability of the banking system? What message portrays stability and confidence?” asked Ed Mills, Washington analyst at Raymond James. “I think the Fed is fine having another week to digest that.”

    “The banking industry works on confidence as much as it works on capital, and the banking industry is very well-capitalized at this point,” Mills added. “But there is a real question about confidence.”

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  • Elizabeth Warren Says Jerome Powell Should No Longer Be Fed Chair

    Elizabeth Warren Says Jerome Powell Should No Longer Be Fed Chair

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    Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Sunday said Jerome Powell should no longer chair the Federal Reserve following the collapse of two U.S. banks under his watch earlier this month.

    Warren, who has been critical of Powell for years, most recently over his decision to continue raising interest rates to curb inflation, said he has not been effective at carrying out the agency’s mandates.

    “He has had two jobs,” Warren told NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “One is to deal with monetary policy. One is to deal with regulation. He has failed at both.”

    Asked if she would call on President Joe Biden to replace him, Warren replied: “Look, I don’t think he should be chairman of the Federal Reserve. I have said it as publicly as I know how to say it. I’ve said it to everyone.”

    The Fed, which reportedly knew about problems at California’s Silicon Valley Bank for at least a year, has launched an investigation into what led to the bank’s demise. The findings are expected to be published by early May. (BuzzFeed, HuffPost’s parent company, banked with SVB.)

    Warren has also called on Powell to recuse himself from the review.

    The Democratic senator criticized a 2018 law, supported by Powell, that repealed parts of the Dodd-Frank Act regulations on midsize banks implemented following the 2008 financial crisis, for contributing to the collapse of SVB and New York’s Signature Bank.

    Republicans and some Democrats have defended their support of the legislation, which was signed by then-President Donald Trump in 2018.

    “Jerome Powell just took a flamethrower to the regulations, weakened them, weakened them, weakened them, weakened dozens of the regulations,” Warren said. “And then the CEOs of the banks did exactly what we expected. They loaded up on risk that boosted their short-term profits. They gave themselves huge bonuses and salaries and exploded their banks.”

    Now Warren and California Rep. Katie Porter (D), along with other Democrats, are calling for those safeguards to be put back in place.

    Biden has also urged congressional lawmakers to make it easier for regulators to punish executives at failed banks.

    “When banks fail due to mismanagement and excessive risk taking, it should be easier for regulators to claw back compensation from executives, to impose civil penalties, and to ban executives from working in the banking industry again,” he said.

    Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to announce its next interest rates decision this week. Powell will hold a press conference on the same day, where he is expected to be asked about the failed banks.

    Warren said the Fed shouldn’t raise interest rates further, adding that Powell also has a responsibility to ensure full employment.

    “He has a dual mandate,” Warren told NBC’s Chuck Todd. “Yes, he is responsible for dealing with inflation, but he is also responsible for employment.”

    Powell, who was first appointed to the Fed’s Board of Directors by then-President Barack Obama and then nominated for the chairman’s role by Trump, was reappointed to the job by Biden in 2021. But Warren voted against him, having previously called him “a dangerous man” to lead the organization.

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  • Elizabeth Warren: Jerome Powell has ‘failed’ as Federal Reserve chair

    Elizabeth Warren: Jerome Powell has ‘failed’ as Federal Reserve chair

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    Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., slammed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in an interview with NBC News’ “Meet the Press” Sunday, saying he “has failed” in his duties and shouldn’t be in his role.

    “He has had two jobs. One is to deal with monetary policy. One is to deal with regulation. He has failed at both,” she said.

    “Look, I don’t think he should be chairman of the Federal Reserve. I have said it as publicly as I know how to say it. I’ve said it to everyone,” said Warren, who serves on the Senate Banking Committee.

    Powell, who was nominated by President Donald Trump in 2017, has faced criticism over his handling of banking regulations following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

    Warren, who has been pressing for stricter banking regulations, said Powell “took a flamethrower to the regulations” when Trump took office, adding that Trump gave Congress the “authority to lighten the regulations even more.”

    “And then the CEOs of the banks did exactly what we expected. They loaded up on risk that boosted their short-term profits. They gave themselves huge bonuses and salaries and exploded their banks,” Warren said.

    A group of Democrats led by Warren and Rep. Katie Porter of California unveiled legislation last week to restore bank regulations that were undone under the Trump administration in 2018 — an effort they say would address the cause of SVB’s collapse.

    At that time, Republicans in Congress pushed a bill — with the support of some centrist Democrats — that eased Dodd-Frank financial regulations on midsize banks, raising the “too big to fail” threshold from $50 billion in assets to $250 billion. The Warren-Porter bill, first reported by NBC News, would repeal that measure, but it faces a tough road to passage in Congress.

    Some Democrats who voted for the 2018 bill are standing by their votes, joining Republicans in resisting more scrutiny for banks and arguing that the U.S. still has ways under existing law to tackle the issue.

    President Joe Biden renominated Powell as Federal Reserve chairman in Nov. 2021. The decision was met with pushback from some progressives and certain Democrats had argued that Powell was too hands-off as a banking regulator.

    Around that time, Warren was a leading opponent of Powell, calling him a “dangerous man” who had led an effort to weaken the nation’s banking system at a hearing in late 2021.

    “I’ve opposed him because of his views on regulation,” Warren said on “Meet the Press” Sunday, “and what he was already doing to weaken regulation.”

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  • Banks are running scared. Is the Federal Reserve about to make things worse?

    Banks are running scared. Is the Federal Reserve about to make things worse?

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    The lightning collapse of three banks and financial industry rescue of a fourth has put a spotlight on the Federal Reserve’s decision next week on whether to continue raising interest rates.

    Just two weeks after Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested rates could rise even higher than previously projected in a bid to quash inflation, many analysts expect a no more than 0.25 percentage-point hike, while some experts are urging policy makers to hold the line for fear of further unsettling the banking system. 

    The quandary highlights the multiple, and conflicting, issues facing the Fed. With key sectors of the economy going strong and inflation still more than double the Fed’s target rate of 2%, the central bank is keenly aware that any sign it is relenting in the battle against inflation could give rise to another wave of price increases. 

    At the same time, lifting the federal funds rate now could magnify the kind of problems at other lenders that led panicked depositors to yank their money out of Silicon Valley Bank. 

    “A financial accident has happened, and we are going from no landing to a hard landing,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at private equity firm Apollo Global Management, said in a note this week that predicted the Fed will keep rates steady when officials meet March 21-22.

    Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, also thinks the current stress on the nation’s banking system could make Fed officials think twice about hiking rates next week.

    “Many people, even myself, had been surprised that the Fed raised rates by [4.5 percentage]  points in 11 months and nothing did break. It’s finally vindicating the view that the Fed can’t raise rates that fast without something happening,” she told CBS MoneyWatch.

    The Treasury problem

    While SVB failed partly because of financial missteps, analysts say rising interest rates played a critical role in its collapse. Flooded with customer deposits during the pandemic, the bank grew rapidly and put much of these funds into long-term Treasury bonds and mortgage securities. 

    But as the Fed jacked up rates, SVB’s investments lost value. That left the bank short on deposits just as customers spooked by SVB’s potential losses were rushing to withdraw their money. The concern now is that this pattern could repeat itself at other banks ill-prepared for further rate hikes.

    “We’re also seeing fear of balance-sheet issues at regional banks,” Bostjancic said. “There’s definitely evidence that banks, as they’ve received this tremendous inflow of deposits, a significant amount went into Treasury securities. There are other banks that are facing that issue.”

    Already, some customers at small and regional banks are moving their funds to the largest institutions, Financial Times correspondent Stephen Gandel told CBS News.


    Large banks see influx of new depositors following SVB collapse

    05:59

    Did the Fed make this mess?

    What led to SVB’s fast growth in deposits in the first place? More Americans were flush with cash in the early years of the pandemic, while the tech industry saw explosive growth. According to economists, both factors were fueled by the government’s response to the COVID-19 crisis: hosing consumers and businesses down with cash, while also keeping interest rates at zero for many months after the initial crisis in 2020 had passed.

    The danger now is that the Fed, having stepped on the gas too hard in recent years to keep the economy motoring forward, is now stomping on the brakes and risking a crash. 

    “Like the poor fool, the U.S. Federal Reserve overreacted to the inflation cold spell during the COVID crisis by easing financial conditions too far for too long,” Will Denyer of Gavekal Research wrote in a note this week. “The risk now is that the Fed has cranked the handle too far the other way … tightening conditions so much that it has initiated a disinflationary process that will overshoot to the downside, likely causing a recession.” 

    Financial conditions tightening

    The Fed’s main tool for controlling inflation is to use its benchmark overnight lending rate to slow the economy. But many economists say inflation is now cooling enough on its own without the need for additional help from the Fed, especially given the lag between monetary policy and economic growth. The current tumult in banking and in financial markets will also make lenders far more cautious, further containing inflationary pressures. 

    “Going forward banks, especially small and medium-sized banks, are likely to tighten their credit standards significantly,” Nationwide’s Bostjancic prediicted. “Fed officials need to consider that more cautious bank lending will be an additional brake on economic activity, and it could be significant.” 


    Former FDIC chair Sheila Bair on turmoil in the banking sector

    06:15

    By contrast, the Fed could very well decide that it has done enough to shore up the banking system following the collapse of SVB and New York’s Signature Bank and continue pushing up interest rates. After those failures, the Fed created a new lending program effectively insuring other banks’ Treasury holdings against losses for up to a year. The central bank could choose to stay the course on rate hikes as a sign of confidence in its policy measures and of its unremitting commitment to lower inflation.

    “What decision sends a message that they’re still cautious about inflation and believe in the stability of the banking system? What message portrays stability and confidence?” asked Ed Mills, Washington analyst at Raymond James. “I think the Fed is fine having another week to digest that.”

    “The banking industry works on confidence as much as it works on capital, and the banking industry is very well-capitalized at this point,” Mills added. “But there is a real question about confidence.”

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  • One of the best ways to figure out what the Fed will do next is to look at regional bank stocks

    One of the best ways to figure out what the Fed will do next is to look at regional bank stocks

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    Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2019, in Washington.

    Patrick Semansky | AP

    Markets have changed their mind — again — about what they think the Federal Reserve will do next week regarding interest rates.

    In a morning where more banking turmoil emerged and stocks opened sharply lower on Wall Street, traders shifted pricing to indicate that the Fed may hold the line when it meets March 21-22.

    The probability for no rate hike shot up to as high as 65%, according to CME Group data Wednesday morning. Trading was volatile, though, and the latest moves suggested nearly a 50-50 split between no rate hike and a 0.25 percentage point move. For most of Tuesday, markets indicated a strong likelihood of an increase.

    Chairman Jerome Powell and his fellow Fed policymakers will resolve the question over raising rates by watching macroeconomic reports that continue to flow in, as well as data from regional banks and their share prices that could provide larger clues about the health of the financial sector.

    Smaller banks have been under intense pressure in recent days, following the closures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the second- and third-largest failures in U.S. history. The SPDR Regional Bank ETF fell another 1.5% on Wednesday and is down more than 23% over the past five trading days.

    Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

    SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF, 5 days

    In a dramatic move Sunday evening, the central bank launched an initiative it called the Bank Term Funding Program. That will provide a facility for banks to exchange high-quality collateral for loans so they can ensure operations.

    Inflows to impacted banks could be reflected through their share prices to indicate how well the Fed’s initiative is working out to maintain confidence in the industry and keep money flowing.

    Central bank officials also will get data in coming days to see how active banks are in using the facility.

    If banks are using the BTFP to a large extent, that could indicate significant liquidity issues and thus serve as a deterrent to raising rates. The last public report on that data will come Thursday, though the Fed will be able to monitor the program right up until its two-day meeting starts Tuesday.

    The wagers on which way the Fed ultimately will go followed a rocky morning on Wall Street. Stocks were sharply lower in early trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 500 points.

    Fed should be cautious for now but then resume hiking cycle, strategist says

    Just as concerns started to diminish concerning banking sector health, news came that Credit Suisse may need a lifeline. Switzerland’s second-largest bank slumped after a major Saudi investor said it would not provide more capital due to regulatory issues.

    The slump came even as economic data seemed to lessen the urgency around controlling inflation.

    The producer price index, a measure of wholesale pipeline prices, unexpectedly dropped 0.1% in February, according to the Labor Department. While markets don’t often pay much attention to the PPI, the Fed considers it a leading indicator on inflation pressures.

    On an annual basis, the PPI gain dropped to 4.6%, a big slide from the 5.7% reading in January that itself was revised lower. The PPI peaked at a rate of 11.6% in March 2022; the February reading was the lowest going back to March 2021. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI was flat on the month and up 4.4% year over year, down from 5% in January.

    “The strong likelihood of continued rapid core PPI disinflation is at the heart of our relatively optimistic take on core [personal consumption expenditures] inflation and, ultimately, Fed policy,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Markets don’t pay much attention to the PPI, but the Fed does.”

    The PPI data coupled with a relatively tame consumer price index report Tuesday. Markets last week were pricing in a potential half-point rate hike this month, but quickly pulled back.

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