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Tag: Jerome Powell

  • CNBC Daily Open: Seeking shelter in tech

    CNBC Daily Open: Seeking shelter in tech

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    Inside HQ2 at the grand opening of Amazon HQ2 in Arlington, Virginia, on June 15, 2023. 

    Amanda Andrade-Rhoades | The Washington Post | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    BOE’s supersized surprise hike
    The
    Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing rates to 5%. Markets were betting on a 25-basis-point hike. But May’s inflation reading for the U.K. was a scorcher: Inflation last month remained unchanged from April, while core inflation actually rose from 6.8% to 7.1% year over year. If inflation remains stubborn, expect more surprises from the BOE.

    Capital requirements hike
    On the second day of his Senate testimony, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said new regulations  aren’t likely to apply to banks below $100 billion in assets. Those rules would increase the amount of capital banks need to maintain, among other conditions. Separately, FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg said the rules are expected to kick in next year.

    Uneasy EU-China relationship
    Europe wants to reduce its economic dependency on China. That is to say, the bloc wants to diversify its supply chains, rely less on demand from the Chinese market and woo foreign investment from other places. However, the euro zone is wary of retaliation from Beijing — such as the country blocking exports from Lithuania — according to a senior EU diplomat who did not want to be named.

    Mixed markets
    U.S. markets mostly rose Thursday, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapped their three-day losing streak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained virtually unchanged. Asia-Pacific markets, however, fell across the board Friday, with all major indexes losing around 1% as of publication time. Japan’s Nikkei 225, in particular, sank up to 2% as the country’s headline inflation rate dropped from 3.5% in April to 3.2% in May.

    [PRO] Bearish market, overvalued stocks
    Even with the recent rally in the S&P 500, the index is still trying to climb beyond the high it reached in January 2022 — which would usher in an official bull market. Yet market strategists from UBS and JPMorgan Chase and are already warning that the stock market may be overvalued.

    The bottom line

    Investors have been lulled by a sense of security that inflation in the U.S. is falling, albeit slower than hoped, and interest rates will gradually fall as the beast is slayed. That’s the engine behind markets’ astounding rally in recent weeks.

    But investors are being rudely returned to a world they thought they had put behind them — a world, in other words, of continual rate hikes. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman thinks “additional policy rate increases will be necessary” — to the extent that they are “sufficiently restrictive” — so that inflation will drop further. Bowman, who is on the Federal Open Market Committee, essentially echoed Powell’s Wednesday comments that more rate hikes are necessary despite June’s pause. (“Pause” is a word Powell dislikes, by the way, which sheds light on how the Fed is thinking.)

    The prospect of more hikes might be why investors are fleeing to technology stocks. Amazon, Apple and Microsoft all climbed yesterday. It sounds contrary, I know. Don’t tech stocks, dependent on growth, suffer the most from high interest rates, which erode the value of future earnings?

    My sense is that investors see artificial intelligence as a moat around earnings, a barrier which rates cannot encroach. Well, that’s the hope, anyway.

    Still, excitement over AI might not be enough to sustain the whole market. Despite adding close to 1% Thursday, the Nasdaq is on track to break its eight-week winning streak. Likewise, the S&P’s 0.37% gain might be too little to preserve its five consecutive weeks of closing in the green.

    Some analysts hoped that bullish markets would charge forward, seeing red. But the hue in sight now seems less a matador’s red cape than traffic-halting red lights.

    Correction: This article has been updated to correct the date of the S&P’s all-time high.

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Rate hikes and red lights

    CNBC Daily Open: Rate hikes and red lights

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    Road sign and red traffic light for STOP at corner of Wall Street and Broadway in New York, USA.

    Tim Graham | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    BOE’s supersized surprise hike
    The
    Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing rates to 5%. Markets were betting on a 25-basis-point hike. But May’s inflation reading for the U.K. was a scorcher: Inflation last month remained unchanged from April, while core inflation actually rose from 6.8% to 7.1% year over year. If inflation remains stubborn, expect more surprises from the BOE.

    Turkey’s welcome hike
    Turkey’s central bank — under its new governor Hafize Gaye Erkan doubled the country’s interest rate from 8.5% to 15%. That goes some way in tackling Turkey’s soaring inflation which, aided by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s insistence on keeping rates low, hit 39.6% in May. But some analysts criticized the hike for being too modest — most were expecting rates to hit 20%.y 2

    Capital requirements hike
    On the second day of his Senate testimony, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said new regulations  aren’t likely to apply to banks below $100 billion in assets. Those rules would increase the amount of capital banks need to maintain, among other conditions. Separately, FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg said the rules are expected to kick in next year.

    Mixed markets
    U.S. markets mostly rose Thursday, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapped their three-day losing streak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained virtually unchanged. The pan-European Stoxx 600 lost 0.51%, but one stock had a great day: shares of British online grocer Ocado rocketed 32.05% amid speculation that Amazon might buy the company.

    [PRO] Bearish market, overvalued stocks
    Even with the recent rally in the S&P 500, the index is still trying to climb beyond the high it reached in January 2022 — which would usher in an official bull market. Yet market strategists from UBS and JPMorgan Chase and are already warning that the stock market may be overvalued.

    The bottom line

    Investors have been lulled by a sense of security that inflation in the U.S. is falling, albeit slower than hoped, and interest rates will gradually fall as the beast is slayed. That’s the engine behind markets’ astounding rally in recent weeks.

    But investors are being rudely returned to a world they thought they had put behind them — a world, in other words, of continual rate hikes. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman thinks “additional policy rate increases will be necessary” — to the extent that they are “sufficiently restrictive” — so that inflation will drop further. Bowman, who is on the Federal Open Market Committee, essentially echoed Powell’s Wednesday comments that more rate hikes are necessary despite June’s pause. (“Pause” is a word Powell dislikes, by the way, which sheds light on how the Fed is thinking.)

    The prospect of more hikes might be why investors are fleeing to technology stocks. Amazon, Apple and Microsoft all climbed yesterday. It sounds contrary, I know. Don’t tech stocks, dependent on growth, suffer the most from high interest rates, which erode the value of future earnings?

    My sense is that investors see artificial intelligence as a moat around earnings, a barrier which rates cannot encroach. Well, that’s the hope, anyway.

    Still, excitement over AI might not be enough to sustain the whole market. Despite adding close to 1% Thursday, the Nasdaq is on track to break its eight-week winning streak. Likewise, the S&P’s 0.37% gain might be too little to preserve its five consecutive weeks of closing in the green.

    Some analysts hoped that bullish markets would charge forward, seeing red. But the hue in sight now seems less a matador’s red cape than traffic-halting red lights.

    Correction: This article has been updated to correct the date of the S&P’s all-time high.

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  • Fed Chair Powell says smaller banks likely will be exempt from higher capital requirements

    Fed Chair Powell says smaller banks likely will be exempt from higher capital requirements

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    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell prepares to testify during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” in Dirksen Building on Thursday, June 22, 2023.

    Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

    New rules expected to require that banks keep more capital almost certainly won’t apply to smaller institutions, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday.

    Addressing concerns over proposals to tighten the reins on bigger banks, Powell told members of the Senate Banking Committee that the rules are still in draft stage.

    At the same time, he also raised concerns about what impact higher capital requirements would have on lending.

    “More capital means more stable banks and stronger banks, but there’s also a trade-off there,” he said in the second day of his semiannual testimony on monetary policy. “You’ve got to make a judgment about where you draw that line.”

    In Powell’s understanding, banks below $100 billion in assets won’t be impacted by any new requirements. That provided some relief for Republican lawmakers who questioned whether the changes were necessary, as Powell faced multiple questions about the future of regulation and supervision. If that’s the case, the new rules would impact the top 25 or so banks in the U.S.

    The questions, and the move to re-examine regulations, follow the March tumult in the industry, in which Silicon Valley Bank and two other large regionals were shuttered following deposit runs.

    Lawmakers and Biden administration regulators have been pushing for a return to more stringent requirements after larger regionals were given a break in changes made in 2018.

    In separate testimony Thursday, FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg said the upcoming rules could apply so-called Basel III international standards to banks in the $100 billion to $250 billion asset range. The changes are not expected to be applied until sometime in 2024. Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, has said they likely will take years to implement fully.

    “The capital requirements will be very, very skewed to the eight largest banks,” Powell said. “There may be some capital increases for other banks. None of this should affect banks under $100 billion.”

    Even with the exemption for smaller institutions, the looming changes represent an adjustment in thinking that Powell previously had supported, specifically that regulations should be tailored for both small- and mid-sized banks. Gruenberg’s comments, for instance, “support our view that banking regulators are biased toward higher capital levels,” Raymond James’ Washington policy analyst Ed Mills said in a client note.

    The American Bankers Association criticized the move toward increase requirements that have been reported to be 20% higher.

    “We have long believed that regulation should be tailored to a bank’s risk and business model,” ABA president Rob Nichols said in a statement. “Arbitrary asset thresholds and changes not justified by rigorous data and evidence are a mistake that will only make it harder for banks of all sizes to meet the needs of their customers, clients and communities while driving financial activity to less-regulated nonbanks.”

    For his part, Powell faced little in the way of hostile questioning despite concerns raised over the SVB failure.

    He did face some grilling from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a frequent critic who charged Thursday that Powell is “ultimately responsible for the team of supervisors who fell down on the job” when SVB failed.

    Powell replied that the Fed “learned some lessons” from the episode.

    “The main responsibility I take is to learn the right lessons from this and to undertake to address them so we don’t have a situation like this where we had unexpectedly a large bank fail and spread contagion into the banking system. That’s not supposed to happen, and we need to take appropriate steps to make sure it doesn’t happen again,” he said.

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  • Wall Street prepares for more gains this month after past week’s breakout

    Wall Street prepares for more gains this month after past week’s breakout

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  • Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes for first time in 15 months

    Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes for first time in 15 months

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    Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes for first time in 15 months – CBS News


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    For 15 months the Federal Reserve has been trying to catch up to rising inflation by slowing economic activity. The central bank announced Wednesday it will not increase interest rates for now, but warned that the pause may not last long. CBS News senior White House correspondent Weijia Jiang reports.

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  • Fed hits pause on interest rates hikes

    Fed hits pause on interest rates hikes

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    Fed hits pause on interest rates hikes – CBS News


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    After 10 straight interest rate hikes done in an effort to combat inflation, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday chose to pause those rate hikes. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did signal that more rate hikes could be coming later this year. Weijia Jiang has more.

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  • ‘Bite of these higher rates is gaining traction almost every day,’ KBW CEO Thomas Michaud warns

    ‘Bite of these higher rates is gaining traction almost every day,’ KBW CEO Thomas Michaud warns

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    A major financial services CEO warns the economy hasn’t fully absorbed higher interest rates yet.

    Thomas Michaud, who runs Stifel company KBW, notes there’s a delayed reaction in the marketplace from the last hike — calling a 25 basis point move at 5% a very different situation than off a half percent.

    related investing news

    As regional bank stock rally regains steam, investors should watch out for these spoilers

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    “This is getting to be the real deal at the moment because of the level of rates,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Wednesday. “The bite of these higher rates is gaining traction almost every day.”

    Michaud delivered the call hours after the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged. It comes after ten rate hikes in a row.

    The Fed signaled on Wednesday two more hikes are ahead this year. Michaud expects one to happen in July. However, he questions whether policymakers will raise rates a second time.

    “Trying to deliver a new message with these dots is not what I’m willing to hang my hat on from what I see happening in the economy,” he said. “The economy is slowing. So, I think we’re near the end of this rate increase cycle.”

    He lists interest rate sensitive areas of the economy already in a recession: Office space in urban areas, residential mortgage originations and investment banking revenues. He sees the problems contributing to more pain in regional banks.

    “Banks were already tightening in the fourth quarter of last year. It didn’t just start in March. Loan growth had been slowing,” added Michaud. “There are elements of like the global financial crisis that are in bank stocks right now.”

    According to Michaud, the regional bank rally is a short-term bounce. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF is up almost 18% over the past month.

    “The overall industry rally for all participants probably doesn’t happen until we get some more stability in what we think the earnings are going to be,” said Michaud. “Earnings estimates haven’t settled. They haven’t stopped going down.”

    He sees a shift from adjusting to the new interest rate environment to credit quality in the second half of this year.

    “Before the first quarter we cut bank estimates by 11%. After the quarter, we cut them by 4%.” Michaud said. “My instincts are we are going to cut them again.”

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  • Fed holds off on rate hike, but says two more are coming later this year

    Fed holds off on rate hike, but says two more are coming later this year

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    WASHINGTON —  The Federal Reserve on Wednesday decided against what would have been an 11th consecutive interest rate increase as it measures what the impacts have been from the previous 10.

    But the decision by the Federal Open Market Committee to hold off on a hike at this two-day meeting came with a projection that another two quarter percentage point moves are on the way before the end of the year.

    related investing news

    Easing inflation pressures give the Fed room to skip a rate hike. But then what?

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    “We have raised our policy interest rate by five percentage points, and we’ve continued to reduce our security holdings at a brisk pace. We’ve covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt,” said Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a news conference following the central bank decision.

    The possibility of further rate increases put pressure on stocks immediately after the news broke, but encouraging talk on the fight against inflation allowed stocks to briefly rebound.

    A ‘hawkish pause’

    The central bankers said they will take another six weeks to see the impacts of policy moves as the Fed fights an inflation battle that lately has shown some promising if uneven signs. The decision left the Fed’s key borrowing rate in a target range of 5%-5.25%.

    “Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” the post-meeting statement said. The Fed next meets July 25-26.

    Markets had widely been anticipating the Fed to “skip” this meeting – officials generally prefer the term to a “pause,” which implies a longer-range plan to keep rates where they are. The expectation leaned heavily against an increase after policymakers, particularly Powell and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, had indicated that some change in approach could be in order.

    The surprising aspect of the decision came with the “dot plot” in which the individual members of the FOMC indicate their expectations for rates further out.

    The dots moved decidedly upward, pushing the median expectation to a funds rate of 5.6% by the end of 2023. Assuming the committee moves in quarter-point increments, that would imply two more hikes over the remaining four meetings this year. During the press conference, Powell said the FOMC hadn’t yet made a decision about whether another increase would be likely in July.

    “People expected a hawkish pause and they got a very hawkish pause,” said David Russell, vice president of market intelligence at TradeStation. “Given the strong labor market, the Fed has room to crush inflation and they don’t want to miss their chance.”

    “Still, policymakers skipped hiking rates so they can monitor the data,” he continuned. “This increases the importance of each incremental economic report. More good news like this week’s CPI and PPI could let traders look past the Fed’s tough talk and see a dovish turn later in the year. Jerome Powell is still a barking dog, but he may be losing his bite.”

    Opinions vary on future hikes

    FOMC members approved Wednesday’s move unanimously, though there remained considerable disagreement among members. Two members indicated they don’t see hikes this year while four saw one increase and nine, or half the committee, expect two. Two more members added a third hike while one saw four more, again assuming quarter-point moves.

    Members also moved up their forecasts for future years, now anticipating a fed funds rate of 4.6% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. That’s up from respective forecasts of 4.3% and 3.1% in March, when the Summary of Economic Projections was last updated.

    The future-year readings, though, do imply the Fed will start cutting rates – by a full percentage point in 2024, if this year’s outlook holds. The long-run expectation for the fed funds rate held at 2.5%.

    Those changes to the rate outlook occurred as members raised their expectations for economic growth for 2023, now anticipating a 1% gain in GDP as compared to the 0.4% estimate in March. Officials also were more optimistic about unemployment this year, now seeing a 4.1% rate by year’s end compared with 4.5% in March’s prediction.

    On inflation, they raised their collective projection to 3.9% for core (excluding food and energy) and lowered it slightly to 3.2% for headline. Those numbers had been 3.6% and 3.3% respectively for the personal consumption expenditures price index, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge. The outlooks for subsequent years in GDP, unemployment and inflation were little changed.

    Fed officials believe that policy moves work with “long and variable lags,” meaning it takes time for rate hikes to work their way through the economy.

    The Fed began raising rates in March 2022, about a year after inflation started a dramatic climb to its highest level in some 41 years. Those rate hikes have amounted to 5 percentage points on the Fed’s benchmark to a level not seen since 2007.

    The increases have helped push 30-year mortgage rates over 7% and also spiked borrowing costs for other consumer items such as auto loans and credit cards.

    Recent data points such as the consumer and producer price indexes have shown the rate of inflation slowing, though consumers still face high costs for many items. The FOMC statement continued to note that “inflation remains elevated.”

    Inflation hit the U.S. economy due to multiple Covid pandemic-related factors – clogged supply chains, unusually strong demand for high-priced goods over services, and trillions in stimulus from both Congress and the Fed that had an abundance of money chasing a dearth of goods.

    At the same, the supply-demand mismatches in the labor market had pushed both wages and prices higher, a situation the Fed has sought to correct through policy tightening that has included both rate increases and a reduction of more than half a trillion dollars from the assets it holds on its balance sheet.

    —CNBC’s Sarah Min contributed to this report.

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  • Here’s how the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate hikes affects your money

    Here’s how the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate hikes affects your money

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    After more than a year of steady rate hikes, the Federal Reserve held its target federal funds rate steady Wednesday.

    For households, however, that offers little relief from record-high borrowing costs.

    “It’s not like rates will go down,” said Tomas Philipson, University of Chicago economist and a former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

    In fact, borrowing costs are likely to climb higher in the second half of the year: Fed officials projected another two quarter percentage point moves are on the way before the end of 2023.

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    Since March 2022, the central bank has hiked its benchmark rate 10 consecutive times to a targeted range of 5%-5.25%, the fastest pace of tightening since the early 1980s. Inflation has started to cool but still remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.

    At the same time, borrowers are paying more on credit cards, student loans and other types of debt.

    What the federal funds rate means for you

    Wage growth hasn’t been able to keep pace with higher prices for many Americans. As a result, most households are getting squeezed and are going into debt just when borrowing rates reach record highs, Philipson said.

    “They are getting hammered,” he added.

    The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., June 14, 2022.

    Sarah Silbiger | Reuters

    The federal funds rate, which is set by the central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight.

    Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and savings rates they see every day. The Fed’s current benchmark rate is at its highest since August 2007.

    Here’s a breakdown of how that affects consumers:

    Credit cards

    Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. As the federal funds rate rose, the prime rate did, as well, and credit card rates followed suit.

    Credit card annual percentage rates are now more than 20%, on average — an all-time high. Further, with most people feeling strained by higher prices, more cardholders carry debt from month to month.

    Today’s credit card rates are likely as high as they’ve been in decades.

    Matt Schulz

    chief credit analyst at LendingTree

    For those who carry a balance, there’s not much relief in sight, according to Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

    “The truth is that today’s credit card rates are likely as high as they’ve been in decades, and they’re probably going to still creep higher in the immediate future, even though the Fed chose not to raise rates this month,” he said.

    Home loans

    Although 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and tied to Treasury yields and the economy, anyone shopping for a new home has lost considerable purchasing power, partly because of inflation and the Fed’s policy moves.

    Rates are now off their recent peak but not by much. The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage currently sits near 6.7%, according to Freddie Mac, down slightly from October’s high but still well above a year ago.

    “Mortgage rates decreased after a three-week climb,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “While elevated rates and other affordability challenges remain, inventory continues to be the biggest obstacle for prospective homebuyers.”

    Other home loans are more closely tied to the Fed’s actions. Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, and home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, are pegged to the prime rate. Most ARMs adjust once a year after an initial fixed-rate period. But a HELOC rate adjusts right away. And already, the average rate for a HELOC is up to 8.3%, the highest in 22 years, according to Bankrate.

    Auto loans

    Even though auto loans are fixed, payments are getting bigger because the prices for all cars are rising along with the interest rates on new loans. So if you are planning to buy a car, you’ll still shell out more in the months ahead.

    The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now 6.87%, the highest since 2010, according to Bankrate.

    Keeping up with the higher cost has become a challenge, research shows, with more borrowers falling behind on their monthly loan payments.

    Student loans

    Darren415 | Istock | Getty Images

    Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers aren’t immediately affected by the Fed’s moves. But as of July, undergraduate students who take out new direct federal student loans will see interest rates rise to 5.50% — up from 4.99% in the 2022-23 academic year and 3.73% in 2021-22.

    For now, anyone with existing federal education debt will benefit from rates at 0% until the payment pause ends, which the U.S. Department of Education expects could happen in the fall.

    Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the Libor, prime or Treasury bill rates — and that means that those borrowers are already paying more in interest. How much more, however, varies with the benchmark.

    Savings accounts

    While the Fed has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate. The savings account rates at some of the largest retail banks, which were near rock bottom during most of the Covid pandemic, are currently up to 0.4%, on average.

    Thanks, in part, to lower overhead expenses, top-yielding online savings account rates are now over 5%, the highest since 2008′s financial crisis, according to Bankrate.

    Since the Fed skipped a rate hike at this meeting, those deposit rate increases are likely to slow, according to Ken Tumin, founder of DepositAccounts.com.

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  • $5.2 billion in cargo stuck off West Coast ports in truck and container bottleneck

    $5.2 billion in cargo stuck off West Coast ports in truck and container bottleneck

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    A photo of Fenix Marine Services rail terminal on June 8, 2023, taken by a trucker.

    The “slow and go” pace of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union workforce at West Coast ports has slowed ground port productivity to a crawl. As a result, supply chain intelligence company MarineTraffic data shows what it is calling a “significant surge” in the average number of containers waiting outside of port limits.

    At the Port of Oakland, during the week of June 5, the average TEUs (ton equivalent units) waiting off port limits rose to 35,153 from 25,266, according to MarineTraffic. At the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, the average TEUs waiting off port limits rose to 51,228 from 21,297 the previous week, said a MarineTraffic spokeswoman.

    The value of the combined 86,381 containers floating off the ports of Oakland, Los Angeles, and Long Beach reached $5.2 billion, based on a $61,000 value per container, and customs data.

    According to data exclusively pulled for CNBC by Vizion, which tracks container shipments, the seven-day rate for a container cleared through the Port of Oakland is operating at 58%; at Port of Long Beach it is 64%; and at Port of Los Angeles it is 62%.

    “Our data shows that vessels will continue arriving at West Coast ports in the coming days with significant amounts of cargo to unload,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion. There are no indications at this time that ocean carriers have plans to cancel any sailings to these ports, he said, but he added, “If these labor disputes continue to affect port efficiency, we could see backlogs similar to those experienced during the pandemic. Obviously, that’s the last thing that any shipper wants as we turn the corner into the back half of the year and peak season.”

    Logistics managers with knowledge of the way the union rank-and-file displeased with unresolved issues in negotiations with port management are influencing work shifts tell CNBC the slowdown can be attributed to skilled labor not showing up for work. CNBC has also learned that at select port terminals, requests for additional work made through official work orders are not being placed on the wall of the union hall for fulfillment. The Pacific Maritime Association, which negotiates on behalf of the ports, is not allowed in the union hall to see if the terminal orders are indeed being requested. CNBC has been told that if the additional job postings were being put up the data would show they are not being filled. Only original labor ordered from the PMA is being filled.

    The PMA said in a statement on Friday afternoon that between June 2 and June 7, the ILWU at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach refused to dispatch lashers who secure cargo for trans-Pacific voyages and unfasten cargo after ships arrive. “Without this vital function, ships sit idle and cannot be loaded or unloaded, leaving American exports sitting at the docks unable to reach their destination,” the statement read. “The ILWU’s refusal to dispatch lashers had been part of a broader effort to withhold necessary labor from the docks.”

    PMA cited a failure on Wednesday morning to fill 260 of the 900 jobs ordered at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and in total, 559 registered longshore workers who came to the dispatch hall were denied work opportunities by the union, PMA asserted in its statement.

    “Each shift without lashers working resulted in more ships sitting idle, occupying berths and causing a backup of incoming vessels,” it stated.

    However, the PMA said ILWU’s decision to stop withholding labor has allowed terminals at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to avert, for now, “the domino effect that would have resulted in backups not seen since last year’s supply chain meltdown.”

    The PMA cited “generally improved” operations at the Ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland, but at the Ports of Seattle and Tacoma, a continuation of “significant slowdowns.”

    The ILWU has declined to comment, citing a media blackout during ongoing labor talks.

    Truck and container backups

    The average truck turns to go in and out of the West Coast ports are up.

    A trucker waiting for a container at LA’s Fenix Marine Services terminal shared photos from their truck with CNBC showing congestion on both rail and the road where truckers wait to pick up their containers.

    Shippers are becoming increasingly concerned about the potential need to find alternative supply chain options.

    A spokesperson for Long Beach, California-based Cargomatic, which focuses on drayage and short-haul trucking logistics, said it isn’t yet seeing trade diversions, but added, “As a national drayage partner, we have contingency plans built in with capacity ready to service our customers anywhere in the U.S. We know that shippers are very nervous and it’s only a matter of time before they pivot if this situation becomes prolonged.”

    The PMA said in its statement that even though some port operations have improved, “the ILWU’s repeated disruptive work actions at strategic ports along the West Coast are increasingly causing companies to divert cargo to more customer-friendly and reliable locations along the Gulf and East Coasts.”

    West Coast ports, which had lost significant volume to East Coast ports over the past year due to volatility in the labor contract talks, had in recent months begun to gain back volume.

    A photo of a truck build up at Fenix Marine Services terminal at the Port of Los Angeles waiting to pick up containers taken by a trucker.

    Routes for monthly long-term 'tramp sailings' from Asia to the Americas

    —  Core trade route      ---  Alternate route

    The Panama Canal's water issues exacerbate costs that would be incurred in any trade re-routing. It has instituted weight requirements for vessels — they need to be lighter to move through. If the vessel is at or under that weight requirement, shippers will be paying additional charges. In addition to the canal fees, some ocean carriers like Hapag Lloyd have instituted a $260 container fee for traveling through the canal. CMA CGM is charging $300 a container. If vessels are heavier than the current requirement, they would be forced to traverse the Pacific Ocean and go around the horn of South America, which would add weeks of travel time and travel costs.

    "Vessel diversions are some of the most difficult activities that shippers and our clients deal with during a crisis," said Paul Brashier, vice president of drayage and intermodal at ITS Logistics. During the pandemic and its aftermath, containers destined for Los Angeles or Long Beach would show up unannounced in Houston or Savannah with little to no notice, he said. "We have visibility applications that alert us prior to the container arriving so we can reassign trucking capacity at the new port. But if you don't have this visibility, if you are not able to track the containers like that in real time, you could face thousands of dollars more in shipping and D&D costs per container to accommodate those changes. That inflationary pressure adversely not only affects the shipper but the consumer of those goods," he added.

    ITS Logistics raised its freight rail alert level to "red" this week, signifying severe risk.

    Supply chain costs have come down considerably on a global basis, according to the Federal Reserve's data, though they have been mentioned by Fed Chair Jerome Powell as one inflationary trigger the central bank has no control over. In a report by Georgetown economist Jonathan Ostry, the spike in shipping costs increased inflation by more than two percentage points in 2022.

    "These slowdowns leave little options for shippers who have containers already en route to the West Coast," said Adil Ashiq, head of North America for MarineTraffic, who told CNBC earlier this week that the maritime supply chain issues were "breaking normal."

    "They could skip a port and go to another West Coast port, but they are all experiencing levels of congestion," he said on Friday. "So do they wait or divert and go to Houston as the next closest port to discharge cargo?"

    If vessels do decide to reroute, it will add days to their journey, which would delay the arrival of the product even more.

    For example, if a vessel inbound from Asia decided to reroute to Houston, it would add another 7 to 11 day journey to the Panama Canal. If a vessel is approved to transit through the canal, that adds 8-10 hours of transit time. "You then have to add travel time once out of the canal to the port. So we're looking at conservatively, a 12 to 18 day additional delay if a vessel decides to go to Houston directly from the Canal. Even more, if you have to travel around South America," he said. 

    Key sectors of the U.S. economy have been pleading with the Biden administration to step in and broker a labor agreement, including trade groups for the retail and manufacturing sectors. On Friday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce added its voice to this effort, expressing its concerns about a "serious work stoppage" at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach which would likely cost the U.S. economy nearly half a billion dollars a day. It estimates a more widespread strike along the West Coast could cost approximately $1 billion per day.

    "The best outcome is an agreement reached voluntarily by the negotiating parties. But we are concerned the current sticking point – an impasse over wages and benefits – will not be resolved," U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Suzanne Clark wrote in a letter to President Biden.

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  • Watch Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speak live on monetary policy

    Watch Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speak live on monetary policy

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    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Friday at the “Perspectives on Monetary Policy” panel at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference the central bank is hosting in Washington, D.C.

    The remarks come with markets suddenly divided on where the Fed goes from here. Market pricing Friday morning indicated about a 35% probability the Fed might approve another interest rate hike when it meets in June, according to the CME Group.

    Recent data has indicated a resilient economy and labor market and inflation that, while abating from its highs of 2022, still is well above the Fed’s 2% target.

    In recent days, regional presidents Lorie Logan of Dallas and Loretta Mester of Cleveland have indicated a stronger inclination to raise, while Austan Goolsbee of Chicago and Raphael Bostic of Atlanta have backed a more cautious approach.

    The Fed next week will release minutes from its meeting earlier in May at which it approved its 10th interest rate hike since March 2022.

    Read more:
    Dallas Fed President Logan says current data doesn’t justify pausing rate hikes yet
    Fed Governor Philip Jefferson named as new vice chair to succeed Lael Brainard
    Fed increases rates a quarter point and signals a potential end to hikes

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  • Good news for markets next week. Everyone agrees the debt ceiling ‘X date’ is not here yet

    Good news for markets next week. Everyone agrees the debt ceiling ‘X date’ is not here yet

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  • A.I. trade is leaving investors vulnerable to painful losses: Evercore

    A.I. trade is leaving investors vulnerable to painful losses: Evercore

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    The artificial intelligence trade may be leaving investors vulnerable to significant losses.

    Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel warns Big Tech concentration in the S&P 500 is at extreme levels.

    “The AI revolution is likely quite real, quite significant. But… these things unfold in waves. And, you get a little too much enthusiasm and the stocks sell off,” the firm’s senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday.

    In a research note out this week, Emanuel listed Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia and Alphabet as concerns due to clustering in the names.

    “Two-thirds [of the S&P 500 are] driven by those top five names,” he told host Melissa Lee. “The public continues to be disproportionately exposed.”

    Emanuel reflected on “odd conversations” he had over the past several days with people viewing Big Tech stocks as hiding places.

    “[They] actually look at T-bills and wonder whether they’re safe. [They] look at bank deposits over $250,000 and wonder whether they’re safe and are putting money into the top five large-cap tech names,” said Emanuel. “It’s extraordinary.”

    It’s particularly concerning because the bullish activity comes as small caps are getting slammed, according to Emanuel. The Russell 2000, which has exposure to regional bank pressures, is trading closer to the October low.

    For protection against losses, Emanuel is overweight cash. He finds yields at 5% attractive and plans to put the money to work during the next market downturn. Emanuel believes it will be sparked by debt ceiling chaos and a troubled economy over the next few months.

    “You want to stay in the more defensive sectors. Interestingly enough with all of this AI talk, health care and consumer staples have outperformed since April 1,” Emanuel said. “They’re going to continue outperforming.”

    Disclaimer

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  • The Fed Is Set Up for a Pause. Why the Stock Market Is Set for a Fall.

    The Fed Is Set Up for a Pause. Why the Stock Market Is Set for a Fall.

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  • PacWest stock jumps 80% as regional banks rebound on Friday, but still down sharply for the week

    PacWest stock jumps 80% as regional banks rebound on Friday, but still down sharply for the week

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    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), May 3, 2023.

    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

    PacWest’s stock was rebounding on Friday.

    However, Friday’s rally made only a small dent in the week-to-date losses. PacWest still finished the week down 43% and below its closing level from Wednesday. The bank confirmed this week that it is exploring strategic options.

    Western Alliance, which said it is not seeking a sale, has also been under heavy pressure this week, falling 27% even after Friday’s rally. The KRE finished the week down about 10%.

    The steep declines, which came even at banks that reported much smaller deposit outflows than First Republic, led Wall Street analysts to warn that the stocks have become detached from their fundamentals.

    “We are arguably reaching a point of hysteria,” Fundstrat strategist Tom Lee said in a note to clients on Friday.

    Analysts at JPMorgan Chase upgraded Western Alliance, Zions and Comerica to overweight on Friday, saying the bank stocks “appear substantially mispriced to us.”

    This week’s slide came after First Republic was seized by regulators and sold to JPMorgan Chase before the market opened on Monday. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, among others, have said this week that they think the stage of banking crisis caused by deposit outflows is largely over, but the fall for the stocks shows investors are less confident.

    Many on Wall Street are looking to Washington for regulatory changes to calm the banking system, such as potentially expanding deposit insurance rules. Some have raised the possibility of temporarily banning short-selling on bank stocks. Former Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Sheila Bair told CNBC’s “The Exchange” on Thursday that some of the share price declines are likely being driven by short-selling.

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  • UBS says it’s time to start picking up some of the safer regional banks on the cheap

    UBS says it’s time to start picking up some of the safer regional banks on the cheap

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  • Video: Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by Another Quarter Point

    Video: Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by Another Quarter Point

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    During a news conference, Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, opened the door to possibly pausing future rate hikes.

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    The New York Times and The Associated Press

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  • Fed raises interest rate 0.25 percentage point, but could be ready to pause

    Fed raises interest rate 0.25 percentage point, but could be ready to pause

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    Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates


    Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates again

    03:58

    The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate another quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday in its ongoing bid to crush inflation, but indicated it could pause the increases to assess the impact of monetary tightening on the U.S. economy.

    The Fed’s rate-setting body said it would raise its benchmark rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%, the highest level since 2007. The increase is the 10th straight interest-rate hike since last March in what has been the most aggressive rate-hiking regime since the 1980s.

    Higher interest rates act on inflation by making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow money, slowing economic activity. Many economists have been calling on the Fed to pause its current rate-hiking regime to avoid pushing the economy into a recession and, more recently, raising pressure on the banking sector.

    In its statement issued Wednesday, the Federal Open Markets Committee signaled this could be the last increase, deleting a reference to “future increases” that appeared in prior statements and noting that “Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.”

    “The Fed is no longer flagging that further hikes should clearly be expected, but this falls short of a strong commitment to ‘pause’ on rate hikes,” Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch, said in a note. “They are still talking about how they will determine the ‘extent’ of additional policy firming — not whether additional tightening is needed or not. The ongoing tightening of credit conditions is recognized, but they have still raised rates today and have left the window open for future hikes.”

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to address reporters at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time, when he will lay out his latest outlook for the economy.

    This is a developing story.


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  • Here’s how the Federal Reserve’s latest quarter-point interest rate hike impacts your money

    Here’s how the Federal Reserve’s latest quarter-point interest rate hike impacts your money

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    The Federal Reserve Bank building

    Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

    What the federal funds rate means to you

    The federal funds rate, which is set by the U.S. central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and saving rates they see every day.

    This rate hike will correspond with a rise in the prime rate and immediately send financing costs higher for many forms of consumer borrowing. On the flip side, higher interest rates also mean savers will earn more money on their deposits.

    Here’s a breakdown of how it works:

    How higher rates are affecting your wallet

    Credit cards

    Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. As the federal funds rate rises, the prime rate does, as well, and your credit card rate follows suit within one or two billing cycles.

    Credit card annual percentage rates are now over 20%, on average, an all-time high. With most people feeling strained by higher prices, more cardholders carry debt from month to month.

    “Now people are racking up debt and borrowing at high rates and that’s troublesome,” said Tomas Philipson, University of Chicago economist and a former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

    With this rate increase, consumers with credit card debt will spend an additional $1.7 billion on interest, according to an analysis by WalletHub. Factoring in the hikes between March 2022 and March 2023, credit card users will wind up paying at least $31.7 billion in extra interest charges over the next 12 months, WalletHub found.

    Home loans

    Boonchai Wedmakawand | Moment | Getty Images

    Although 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and tied to Treasury yields and the economy, anyone shopping for a new home has lost considerable purchasing power, partly because of inflation and the Fed’s policy moves.

    Rates are now off their recent peak, but not by much. The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage currently sits at 6.48%, according to Bankrate, down slightly from November’s peak but still much higher than it was a year ago.

    “This goes to show just how hard it is for many buyers to overcome today’s persistently high home prices and mortgage rates,” said Jacob Channel, senior economic analyst at LendingTree.

    Other home loans are more closely tied to the Fed’s actions. Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, and home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, are pegged to the prime rate. Most ARMs adjust once a year after an initial fixed-rate period. But a HELOC rate adjusts right away. Already, the average rate for a HELOC is up to 7.99%, according to Bankrate.

    Auto loans

    Even though auto loans are fixed, payments are getting bigger because the prices for all cars are rising along with the interest rates on new loans. So if you are planning to buy a car, you’ll shell out more in the months ahead.

    The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now 6.58%, according to Bankrate.

    The Fed’s latest move could push up the average interest rate even higher, right at a time when borrowers are already struggling to keep up with bigger monthly loan payments.

    Student loans

    Kameleon007 | Istock | Getty Images

    Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers aren’t immediately affected by rate hikes. The interest rate on federal student loans taken out for the 2022-23 academic year already rose to 4.99%, and any loans disbursed after July 1 will likely be even higher. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based on an auction of 10-year Treasury notes later this month.

    For now, anyone with existing federal education debt will benefit from rates at 0% until the payment pause ends, which the U.S. Department of Education expects to happen sometime this year.

    Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the Libor, prime or Treasury bill rates — and that means that, as the Fed raises rates, those borrowers will also pay more in interest. How much more, however, will vary with the benchmark.

    Savings accounts and CDs

    While the Fed has no direct influence on deposit rates, those tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate. The savings account rates at some of the largest retail banks, which were near rock bottom for years, are currently up to 0.39%, on average.

    Thanks, in part, to lower overhead expenses, top-yielding online savings account rates are as high as 4.5%, much higher than the average rate from a traditional, brick-and-mortar bank, according to Bankrate.

    Rates on one-year certificates of deposit at online banks are closer to 5%, according to DepositAccounts.com.

    With more economic uncertainty ahead, consumers should be taking aggressive steps to secure their finances — including paying down high-interest debt and boosting savings, McBride advised.

    “Grabbing a 0% credit card balance transfer offer or putting your emergency fund in a high-yield online savings account are good first steps.”

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  • Markets next week have to contend with how aggressive the Fed drumbeat sounds

    Markets next week have to contend with how aggressive the Fed drumbeat sounds

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