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  • Daily Notes: Christian McCaffrey traded to 49ers, RBBC to replace him in Carolina

    Daily Notes: Christian McCaffrey traded to 49ers, RBBC to replace him in Carolina

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    7:37 AM ET

    • Eric MoodyESPN

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        Former manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company, now living my dream creating fantasy and sports betting content about the NFL, NBA, and WNBA for ESPN.

    Read ESPN’s fantasy football Daily Notes every weekday to stay caught up on the news you need to know and get a head start on the fantasy football content coming today and tomorrow to ESPN.com and the ESPN Fantasy App. Here are your fantasy headlines for Friday, Oct. 21.

    The news: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the Panthers are trading RB Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers for draft picks.

    What it means in fantasy: As compensation, the Panthers will receive second-, third- and fourth-round draft picks in the 2023 NFL draft, along with a fifth-round pick in 2024. McCaffrey is now part of Kyle Shanahan’s fantasy-friendly offense in San Francisco that leans heavily on running backs as rushers and receivers out of the backfield. It will be a breath of fresh air for McCaffrey, considering the Panthers ranked last in the league in total yards per game. As soon as he takes the field, he can be considered a high-end RB1 with a shot at finishing as fantasy’s most valuable player for the season.

    Going deeper: After playing in all 16 games in each of his first three NFL seasons, McCaffrey was limited by injuries to just 10 combined games in 2020 and 2021. However, he’s been very productive when on the field. McCaffrey has averaged 19.6 touches and 22.2 fantasy points per game in his career.

    The news: Panthers RBs D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard are expected to form a committee after Christian McCaffrey’s departure.

    What it means in fantasy: To be candid, I believe Foreman will lead the Panthers’ committee ultimately but Hubbard will be involved as well. Carolina signed Foreman as a free agent from the Titans earlier this year. The Panthers didn’t seem to be completely sold on Hubbard’s 10-game stint as starter last year when McCaffrey missed time. While McCaffrey was out, Hubbard rushed for 514 yards and four touchdowns in 10 games. Additionally, he caught 19 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. Filling in for Derrick Henry when he suffered a foot injury in Week 8 last season, Foreman had success with the Titans. He finished the season with 133 rushing attempts for 566 yards and three touchdowns, as well as nine receptions for 123 yards. Hubbard (96.5%) and Foreman (95.8%) are available in a high percentage of ESPN leagues. Both are on the flex radar for a Carolina offense that ranks last in the NFL in total yards per game.

    The news: ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that WR DJ Moore is viewed as a “foundational piece to the roster.”

    What it means in fantasy: Moore is unlikely to be traded as the deadline approaches, despite multiple calls from other teams. Moore has been negatively impacted by the Panthers’ offense, which isn’t a fantasy football bonanza. A trade would significantly improve his fantasy outlook. This season, Moore has averaged 7.3 targets and 8.4 fantasy points. He was the WR15 in our draft trends this summer. Even as a flex option, Moore is difficult to trust.

    The news: Cardinals WR Rondale Moore caught one of two targets for 31 yards against the Saints.

    What it means in fantasy: As Marquise Brown is out for the immediate future with a foot injury, Moore was expected to play a more prominent role in the Cardinals’ passing game. Over the past two games, Moore has caught 13 of 18 targets for 117 receiving yards. In his first game back after serving his suspension, DeAndre Hopkins halted that positive momentum. He caught 10 of 14 targets for 103 receiving yards. In Week 8 against the Vikings, fantasy managers will have a hard time trusting Moore in their lineups.

    Going deeper: This was the second time Hopkins had 10 receptions for 100 or more yards in his first game of a season. Over the past 20 seasons, only Hopkins, Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin have done that multiple times.

    The news: Patriots RB Damien Harris practiced in full Thursday.

    What it means in fantasy: Harris is dealing with a hamstring injury. After missing last week’s game against the Browns, he seems on track to play Monday night against the Bears. Depending on how healthy Harris is, he will likely cut into Rhamondre Stevenson‘s snaps and opportunity share. Stevenson can still be inserted into fantasy lineups as an RB2.

    The news: Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett missed practice for a second consecutive day as he deals with a hamstring injury.

    What it means in fantasy: The Seahawks might be without Lockett for their matchup against the Chargers. The receiver has missed only two games in his career, and one was the final game of 2016 after breaking his leg. Lockett’s status should be monitored by fantasy managers on Friday and likely into the weekend. Should Lockett not be able to go, Dee Eskridge and Marquise Goodwin will step up.

    The news: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins did not practice Thursday with a knee injury.

    What it means in fantasy: Dobbins’ knee tightened up against the Giants last week. It is possible that he will miss Sunday’s game against the Browns after two consecutive DNPs. In the event he is inactive, fantasy managers should turn to Kenyan Drake, who filled in for Dobbins last week and finished with 19.7 fantasy points. Drake is still available in 82% of ESPN leagues. Gus Edwards is also close to returning from injured reserve. When he becomes active, he’ll have a role in the backfield.

    The news: Raiders TE Darren Waller missed practice for a second consecutive day with a hamstring injury.

    What it means in fantasy: This is not good news for Waller, especially coming out of a bye week. There’s a good chance he’ll miss this week’s game against the Texans. Backup tight end Foster Moreau is very capable of filling the void. He’s a great contingency plan for fantasy managers who have Waller on their rosters.

    The news: ESPN’s Rich Cimini reports that WR Elijah Moore will be inactive for Week 7 against the Broncos after he requested a trade.

    What it means in fantasy: Moore is frustrated by his lack of targets, but the Jets are not considering a trade as the deadline is quickly approaching. Moore has been targeted only 29 times this season. His trade demand “didn’t sit well with the Jets.” Moore’s absence opens the door for Corey Davis to have a high floor against the Broncos since Zach Wilson has a strong rapport with him.

    Going deeper: Davis leads the Jets with 351 receiving yards on 19 catches, 17 of which were for first downs or touchdowns.

    The news: WR Hunter Renfrow did not practice Thursday with a hip injury.

    What it means in fantasy: The report came as a surprise. Fantasy managers should pivot to Mack Hollins if Renfrow is ruled out, since Hollins is still available in 93% of ESPN leagues. In the two games earlier this season when Hollins had eight or more targets, he finished with a combined 41.5 fantasy points.

    The news: Ravens TE Mark Andrews missed practice on consecutive days for rest purposes.

    What it means in fantasy: Coach John Harbaugh has publicly stated that these are rest days for Andrews, but he’s also dealing with a knee injury. I believe Andrews will play against the Browns on Sunday. However, were Andrews unable to play, Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely would be an intriguing streamer. Cade Otton and Evan Engram should also be considered. WR Rashod Bateman is on track to return this week after dealing with a foot injury. After Week 6’s loss to the Giants, offensive coordinator Greg Roman noted that Devin Duvernay should be more involved; this would be even more likely if Andrews were ruled out.

    Today on ESPN.com/Fantasy and in the ESPN Fantasy App

    Mike Clay’s Playbook: projections and analysis for every game

    Eric Karabell’s fantasy hot seat: Tua Tagovailoa leads list of players facing pressure in Week 7

    • Fantasy Focus Podcast: Daniel Dopp, Stephania Bell and Mike Clay react to the massive Christian McCaffrey trade before previewing everything you need to know for Week 7 including key injury updates, lineup locks, if you can start Brady & much more! Watch

    Sunday:

    • The Fantasy Football cheat sheet: the week’s best advice in one place

    • Inactives Watch: who’s in, who’s out and what does it mean?

    • Matt Bowen and Tristan H. Cockcroft’s fantasy highs and lows

    • Fantasy Football Now: Sunday at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN2

    In case you missed it:

    Field Yates’ Fantasy Field Pass for Week 7: How will Dak, Tua, Hopkins fare in return to action?

    Mike Clay’s TNF Playbook: Saints vs. Cardinals

    Tristan H. Cockcroft’s positional Matchup Map

    Matt Bowen’s fantasy film room

    Al Zeidenfeld’s DFS Best Buys for Week 7

    • Fantasy Focus podcast: Field Yates, Mike Clay and Daniel Dopp preview a friendlier “Thursday Night Football” for fantasy before dishing out the WRs who have great matchups and the WRs you might need to bench. Then, Adam Schefter joins to talk the storylines to watch in Week 7, including who needs to be on your radar for a late-season push. Listen | Watch

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  • Every NFL team’s record vs. the spread and Week 7 early lines

    Every NFL team’s record vs. the spread and Week 7 early lines

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    6:51 AM ET

    • Kyle SoppeESPN

    At a glance, Week 7 appears to be one of mismatches, as nine of the 14 games (64.3%) posted an opening line north of five points. That’s a big number, but with how bad the bottom rung of NFL teams is, your gut reaction may be to back the favorites.

    Be careful. Very careful.

    It’s been no secret that underdogs have been profitable on the whole this season, but with a week like the one we have coming, it’s important to add context. The cover (and outright win) rates for underdogs of five or fewer points this season essentially matchup with the rates from 2016-21, but once you cross that 5-point spread, the dogs are barkin’. This season, when that is the case, underdogs are covering at a 63.2% clip, winning outright 35.5% of the time.

    How does that stack up with the past? From 2016-21, underdogs covered 49.4% of the time and pulled off the outright upset just 20.9% of the time. Sure, six weeks does not a season make, but what we’ve seen up to this point is overwhelming … do you think it continues? Let me know, and here are the league wide trends and a note to consider for every team as we head into Week 7:

    Thursday, 8:15 p.m.

    Saints ATS: 2-4
    O/U: 4-2
    What we know about the Saints: Over the past three weeks, New Orleans games have seen 50 more points scored than projected (first three weeks: nine fewer points).

    Cardinals ATS: 3-3
    O/U: 1-4-1
    What we know about the Cardinals: The over hit in Week 1 but hasn’t cashed since in Arizona games. IN fact, over the past two weeks, Cardinals games have gone under the projection by 34 points.

    play

    0:39

    Joe Fortenbaugh breaks down why he’s taking the under in Saints vs. Cardinals.

    Sunday, 1 p.m.

    Falcons ATS: 6-0
    O/U: 3-3
    What we know about the Falcons: The Falcons are just the third team since 2010 to open the season 6-0 ATS (2021 Cowboys and 2018 Chiefs).

    Bengals ATS: 4-2
    O/U: 1-5
    What we know about the Bengals: A Bengals game went over for the first time last week and they improved to 14-4 ATS in their past 18 games that went over the number.

    Browns ATS: 2-4
    O/U: 5-1
    What we know about the Browns: When it goes sideways for Cleveland it really goes sideways. Last week’s 38-15 loss to New England (as a 2.5-point favorite) was the fifth time since the beginning of last season that the Browns cover margin was -25 or worse.

    Ravens ATS: 2-3-1
    O/U: 2-4
    What we know about the Ravens: The Ravens have failed to cover three straight games and all three of those contests have gone under the total.

    Colts ATS: 3-3
    O/U: 1-5
    What we know about the Colts: Not one, not two …but six. Six straight Colts road games have gone under the total (four of those games going under the projected total by at least 10 points).

    Titans ATS: 3-2
    O/U: 2-3
    What we know about the Titans: The Titans covered four straight against the division rival Colts, winning three of those games outright as an underdog.

    Lions ATS: 3-2
    O/U: 4-1
    What we know about the Lions: The Lions return from their bye and are looking to avoid their first three game ATS losing streak since Weeks 14-16 of the 2019 season.

    Cowboys ATS: 4-2
    O/U: 2-4
    What we know about the Cowboys: How ’bout them unders? Four straight Dallas home games have gone under the projected total by at least five points.

    Packers ATS: 2-4
    O/U: 2-4
    What we know about the Packers: The Packers are 8-13 ATS over their past 21 games when favored by at least seven points (28-11 ATS in all other instances during the regular season over that stretch).

    Commanders ATS: 2-4
    O/U: 2-4
    What we know about the Commanders: That’s now four straight unders in Washington games, with the average total over that stretch coming in 11.6 points under the projection.

    Giants ATS: 5-1
    O/U: 2-4
    What we know about the Giants: The Giants are the first team to go 4-0 outright as an underdog in a team’s first six games of a season since the 2012 Seahawks did so.

    Jaguars ATS: 2-4
    O/U: 4-2
    What we know about the Jaguars: Each of Jacksonville’s past 14 games have seen the covering team also win outright.

    Buccaneers ATS: 2-4
    O/U: 1-5
    What we know about the Buccaneers: The Bucs have dropped four straight ATS. In their previous 12 games (playoffs included), they were 9-3 ATS.

    Panthers ATS: 1-5
    O/U: 2-4
    What we know about the Panthers: The Panthers may only be 1-5 ATS this season, but three of those losses, including last week at the Rams, have seen them fail to cover by less than five points. A consistent fade that often requires some sweat to get there.

    Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

    Texans ATS: 3-1-1
    O/U: 2-3
    What we know about the Texans: Under tickets have cashed in eight of Houston’s past 10 road games (last road game was a 13-6 win in Jacksonville with a 43.5-point over/under).

    Raiders ATS: 2-3
    O/U: 3-1-1
    What we know about the Raiders: The Raiders are coming off of their bye looking for a fourth straight over (overs came through in just three of 10 games prior to this recent run).

    Jets ATS: 4-2
    O/U: 3-3
    What we know about the Jets: The most impressive two game run in recent memory? The Jets have covered their past two games by a total of 50.5 points, outscoring opponents 67-27 in the process.

    Broncos ATS: 2-4
    O/U: 1-5
    What we know about the Broncos: Denver is 2-8-1 ATS in the past 11 games it has played on short rest, something that will be the case this weekend after it wrapped up Week 6 in Los Angeles on Monday night.

    Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

    Chiefs ATS: 2-4
    O/U: 3-3
    What we know about the Chiefs: The Chiefs have covered seven of their past 10 regular season games when the over/under is less than 50 points.

    49ers ATS: 3-3
    O/U: 1-5
    What we know about the 49ers: Five of six 49er games this season have had a cover margin of at least 11.5 points.

    Seahawks ATS: 3-3
    O/U: 3-3
    What we know about the Seahawks: Seattle has both scored and allowed at least 30 points in three of its past four road games.

    Chargers ATS: 4-2
    O/U: 3-3
    What we know about the Chargers: The Bolts have covered three of four games in the Justin Herbert era when playing on short rest (overs are also 3-1).

    Sunday, 8:20 p.m.

    Steelers ATS: 2-3-1
    O/U: 2-4
    What we know about the Steelers: The Steelers are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games, with three of those losses seeing them fail to cover by at least 16 points.

    Dolphins ATS: 3-3
    O/U: 2-4
    What we know about the Dolphins: That’s three straight unders in Miami games and the team total bettors have been having a field day as Miami has been held to 21 or fewer points in five of six weeks. It must be a city thing, as the Marlins had a historic scoring drought during the baseball regular season.

    Monday, 8:15 p.m.

    Bears ATS: 2-3-1
    O/U: 2-4
    What we know about the Bears: The Bears get the closest thing to a second bye: first game in Week 6 and the last one in Week 7. But is that good? Da Bears are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games on extended rest.

    Patriots ATS: 3-2-1
    O/U: 3-3
    What we know about the Patriots: The Pats are just 2-7 ATS in the post-Tom Brady era when playing on extended rest.

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  • Baltimore blunders, bathroom breaks and more bad beats of the week

    Baltimore blunders, bathroom breaks and more bad beats of the week

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    Misery loves company. At least that’s what my fellow Las Vegas Raiders fans have been telling me since I was 5 years old. Conversely, celebrating is always more fun when you’ve got friends. That’s why starting this week, we are adding the fantasy football world to our weekly therapy session.

    There are two things I’m sure of: My weeks are better when my beloved Raiders win, and all of our weeks are better when we share the chaos together. Let’s start filling those buckets with tears of joy or sadness.

    Fantasy frustrations

    The football gods wasted NO time Sunday reminding us that they run things. Imagine being the guy who was offered Rashaad Penny in a fantasy trade this week, turned the trade down, and then faced him this week? Yeah, that was my buddy Dave. Fear not, Dave, the pain was felt everywhere.

    From the Raiders suddenly deciding to hand the ball off to Josh Jacobs to Penny throwing up Madden-like numbers to Miles Sanders absolutely making us all look stupid, it was what I like to call Pie Week for fantasy football players. Because by late Monday night, all of us were eating a slice of that humble pie.

    I feel you, Vann.

    Verdict: Five buckets. Five overflowing buckets.

    Ahhhhh, the joy of betting is that a game that most of these players’ families don’t even want to watch becomes must-see TV. The Browns were up by three at the half, and everyone who bet Cleveland in this game had to feel good. Not so fast! Two late fourth-quarter field goals gave the Falcons the win — and more importantly kept Atlanta undefeated!

    No, not in the standings, don’t be silly. But where most of you care most.

    Verdict: Three buckets of mostly happiness

    Look, I don’t know Brandon. But Brandon deserves a hug. In the world of bad beats we’ve all got that story. This one, though, might take the cake.

    It’s a game of inches, Brandon … or yards, in this case. Actually, a yard. Yikes. I’m not helping this situation.

    Verdict: Four buckets

    Don’t @ me, analytics nerds, about John Harbaugh’s decision to go for fourth-and-goal late in a tied game from the 2-yard line. Sometimes taking the points is like a plain bologna sandwich on generic bread. Is it exciting? No. Is it satisfying? Kind of. Do you wish it was better … had more flair … was more what you expected? Obviously. But you’ve got to eat, and food is food. You have to win, and points are points. Instead of taking those points, you give the Bills the ball back tied and Josh Allen has one of those MVP-type moments that MVP-type players have.

    Meanwhile …

    Verdict: Three buckets

    Saturday was also … well … interesting? I mean, most of us were done before the day had even started thanks to TCU’s shocking shellacking of Oklahoma. This was how we ALL felt by halftime of the early games!

    But just when you thought life couldn’t get any weirder, this happened.

    Imagine being the guy who went to Syracuse, knows his team incredibly well and advises all of his buddies to take the under against Wagner at 63.5. It’s 49-0 at halftime …

    Everyone can rejoice! Crisis averted! We’re all rich! Orrrrrrrrrr ……

    Dust if off. We will get ’em next week. And just remember no matter how much grief your friends are giving you this week for your performance last weekend, it won’t equal the amount of grief the world is giving DK.

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  • NFL Week 4 betting notes: Lamar Jackson thriving as underdog

    NFL Week 4 betting notes: Lamar Jackson thriving as underdog

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    Week 4 features several marquee coaches and quarterbacks in rare underdog roles.

    Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots square off against Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers with the Patriots currently listed as 9.5 point underdogs. Belichick has the best ATS record since he joined the Patriots in 2000, while LaFleur has the best ATS record since he became a head coach in 2019.

    Belichick faces his second-largest underdog role in two decades. If the line closes past double-digits, Belichick looks to match Lou Saban for the most wins as a double-digit underdog in the Super Bowl era, including the playoffs. Belichick is 7-5 outright as a double-digit underdog (10-2 ATS), making him the only coach in the Super Bowl era with a winning outright record as a double-digit underdog (minimum 10 games as underdog).

    Belichick’s former pupil Tom Brady is currently a home underdog as well. Brady is 9-3 outright and 11-1 ATS as a home underdog in his career. It snaps a 22-game streak of Brady being favored including the playoffs. That had been the second-longest active streak behind his opposing quarterback, Patrick Mahomes.

    Another quarterback with great success as an underdog is Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore Ravens are 9-1 ATS and 7-3 outright with Jackson as an underdog with Jackson. The Ravens are home underdogs against the Bills.

    The Cardinals hope to extend a pair of streaks in Carolina, as Arizona has won seven straight games outright as a a road underdog. Meanwhile, Carolina has lost seven straight games outright as a favorite.

    One streak that appears to be coming to an end is the Detroit Lions’ streak of 26 games without being favored. Detroit is currently a home favorite against Seattle. Two weeks ago, the Lions were favored most of the week against the Washington Commanders until the line closed pick’em.

    • Miami and Philadelphia are the only teams to start 3-0 both outright and ATS.

    • Tua Tagovailoa is 8-3-1 ATS and 7-5 outright as an underdog in his career. He is 7-1-1 ATS and 6-3 outright when getting at least 3.5 points. Overall, Miami is 13-6-1 ATS as an underdog since drafting Tagovailoa in 2020.

    • This is the first time a team 3-0 or better has been at least a 3.5-point underdog against a team with a losing record since 2018. That year, 3-0 Miami lost 38-7 in New England as a 6.5-point underdog.

    • All three Cincinnati games have gone under the total this season.

    • Prime-time unders are 7-3 this season and 95-69-3 (.579) over the past four seasons.

    • Favorites are 18-12 ATS in London games. Overs and unders are split 15-15.

    • New Orleans is 0-3 ATS this season. Dennis Allen is 14-25 ATS as a head coach.

    • New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its past six games as an underdog, but since 2014, it is 30-15 ATS as an underdog.

    • Both teams have gone over the total in each of their first three games. The only other team 3-0 to the over is Detroit.

    • Cleveland is 8-15 ATS as a favorite under Kevin Stefanski (2-4 ATS as road favorite). This is just the second time that Jacoby Brissett is a road favorite (lost outright as 5.5-point favorite with Indianapolis against Jacksonville in 2019).

    • Atlanta is 3-0 ATS this season. Last season, Atlanta was 6-10-1 ATS in Arthur Smith’s first season. Under Smith, Atlanta is 8-5 ATS when it is not at least a seven-point underdog and 1-5-1 ATS when getting at least a touchdown.

    • Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in nonconference games under Kevin Stefanski.

    • Cleveland has covered 10 of the last 11 meetings dating back to 1978.

    • Baltimore is 14-2 ATS as an underdog since 2018 (9-7 outright), including 9-1 ATS in Lamar Jackson‘s starts (7-3 outright).

    • Lamar Jackson is 2-0 outright as a home underdog in his career. Since 2019, Baltimore is 5-0 ATS as a home underdog (3-2 outright).

    • Baltimore is 12-2-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since 2019.

    • John Harbaugh is 29-19-2 ATS as an underdog of at least three points.

    • Josh Allen is 20-10-1 ATS in his career on the road.

    • Since the start of last season, Dallas is 10-3 ATS as a favorite, 7-0 ATS in division games and 12-2 ATS in conference games.

    • Ten of the last 13 meetings have gone over the total.

    • Cooper Rush is 3-0 outright and ATS in his career as a starter, though this is the first time he is favored. The only quarterbacks to debut in the past 20 seasons to start 4-0 both outright and ATS are Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, Jimmy Garoppolo and Trevor Siemian.

    • Detroit will snap a 26-game streak of not being favored (longest active streak in NFL). Detroit has not been at least a four-point favorite since 2019.

    • Detroit is 3-0 ATS this season and is 14-6 ATS under Dan Campbell. Campbell is 2-3 ATS when he is not at least a four-point underdog (12-3 ATS as at least a four-point underdog).

    • Detroit has gone over the total in all three games. The only other teams that have gone over the total in all three games are Atlanta and Cleveland.

    • Geno Smith is 22-15 ATS in his career, including 5-2 ATS since leaving the New York Jets.

    • Seattle is 44-27-2 ATS as an underdog under Pete Carroll.

    • Los Angeles is 0-3 outright as a road favorite under Brandon Staley.

    • Davis Mills is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog with three straight covers.

    • Houston is 2-0-1 ATS this season, one of four teams unbeaten ATS.

    • Houston has covered five straight conference games.

    • Eight straight Indianapolis games have gone under the total, including all three this season.

    • Indianapolis is 0-3-1 outright and 0-4 ATS in its past four games as a favorite (0-1-1 this season).

    • Tennessee games are 31-14-1 to the over when Ryan Tannehill starts.

    • Tennessee is 4-1 ATS outright and ATS against Indianapolis with Tannehill at quarterback with three straight covers.

    • New York is 0-4 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2020. This is the first time New York has been favored in back-to-back games since Weeks 15-16 of 2019.

    • Chicago is 4-11 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.

    • Chicago is 9-17 ATS on the road since 2019.

    • New York is 6-0 ATS on short rest since 2020.

    • Chicago has beaten New York each of the past three seasons (2-1 ATS), with all three meetings going under the total.

    • Philadelphia and Miami are the only teams to start 3-0 both outright and ATS.

    • Philadelphia is 3-0-1 ATS as a home favorite under Nick Sirianni.

    • Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games, but it upset the Los Angeles Chargers as 6.5-point underdogs last week. Jacksonville’s past five road games went over the total.

    • Philadelphia is now co-favored to win its conference (+375) after entering the season at 11-1 (sixth in odds). The team opened 18-1 (tied for ninth in odds) back in February.

    New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5), Sunday at 1 ET

    • Pittsburgh is 0-8 ATS in its past eight games when laying at least 3.5 points (3-4-1 SU) including playoffs.

    • New York is 3-6 ATS on the road under Robert Saleh. Since 2017, New York is 13-27-1 ATS on the road.

    • Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season.

    • All five meetings since 2012 have gone under the total.

    • Pittsburgh is 16-1 outright with extra rest since 2017 (8-7-2 ATS).

    • Since the start of last season, Arizona is 7-0 outright as a road underdog (+12.5 units on moneyline). That is tied with 1979-80 Seattle for the longest such winning streak in the Super Bowl era. However, Arizona lost a playoff game as a road underdog last season (did not cover). Arizona is 9-1 ATS in all road regular-season games since the start of last season.

    • Carolina has lost seven straight games outright as a favorite. There have only been two longer outright losing streaks as a favorite since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger (nine straight by 1979-81 Seattle, eight straight by 2015-16 Atlanta). Carolina is 1-9 outright and ATS in its past 10 games as a home favorite with four straight losses.

    • Carolina snapped a nine-game outright and ATS losing streak by beating New Orleans as a two-point home underdog last week. Carolina is 3-14 ATS in its past 17 games.

    • Kliff Kingsbury is 19-10-1 ATS on the road.

    • Bill Belichick is 7-5 outright (10-2 ATS) in his career as a double-digit underdog, including the playoffs. The seven wins are tied for second-most in the Super Bowl era behind Lou Saban (8). Out of 90 coaches with at least 10 games as an underdog, Belichick is the only one with a winning outright record. He is 4-1 outright and ATS as a double-digit underdog with New England, though the only loss was the only such instance he didn’t have Tom Brady as his quarterback (Brian Hoyer).

    • This is just the second time in the last 20 seasons that New England has been a double-digit underdog (2020 at Kansas City, lost by 16 as 11-point underdogs).

    • New England is 59-33-1 ATS after a loss under Bill Belichick, including 25-5 ATS when he is an underdog following a loss (20-10 outright).

    • New England is 0-2-1 ATS this season. It’s the first time in Belichick’s head coaching career that he has failed to cover any of his teams’ first three games of a season.

    • Green Bay is 17-7 ATS as a home favorite under Matt LaFleur, including 7-1 ATS since the start of last season.

    • Green Bay is 4-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of last season.

    • All three Green Bay games have gone under the total this season.

    • Since Bill Belichick was hired in New England in 2000, New England has the best ATS record (204-145-7, .585). Since Matt LaFleur was hired in Green Bay in 2019, Green Bay has the best ATS record (34-18, .654).

    • Las Vegas has covered eight of the past nine meetings.

    • All three Denver games have gone under the total by over 10 points this season.

    • Las Vegas is the only team that has yet to win or cover a game this season.

    • Las Vegas is 1-7 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season (3-5 outright).

    • Josh McDaniels is 13-18 ATS in his career as a head coach. After winning and covering his first six games in Denver in 2009, McDaniels is 7-18 ATS and 5-20 outright. He is 4-7 outright and ATS as a favorite, including 0-2 this season.

    • Denver is 0-4 ATS in its past four road games (0-1 ATS this season).

    • Tom Brady is 11-1 ATS and 9-3 outright in his career as a home underdog including the playoffs. The only quarterback with a better ATS record as a home underdog in the Super Bowl era is Ken Stabler (9-0-1 ATS), minimum six starts as home underdog including playoffs.

    • This will snap Tom Brady’s 22-game streak as a favorite including the playoffs, the second-longest active streak, behind only Patrick Mahomes, who will be a favorite for a 39th straight game. The last time Brady was an underdog was in 2020 against Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Mahomes’ streak is the fourth-longest in the Super Bowl era.

    • Patrick Mahomes is 8-2-1 ATS in his career when the line is between +3 and -3.

    • Kansas City is 47-26-1 ATS on the road under Andy Reid, the best mark in the NFL since 2013.

    • All three Tampa Bay games have gone under the total this season.

    • Tom Brady is 2-8 ATS in prime-time games since joining Tampa Bay in 2020.

    • Prime-time unders are 7-3 this season and 95-69-3 (.579) over the past four seasons.

    • San Francisco has covered all five meetings since 2020 including playoffs.

    • Kyle Shanahan is 7-16-2 ATS as a home favorite. However, he is 4-0 ATS in that role in his past four games after losing his previous nine games in that role outright.

    • Sean McVay is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog (5-5 outright). Overs are 8-2 in those games.

    • All three San Francisco games have gone under the total this season.

    • Prime-time unders are 7-3 this season and 95-69-3 (.579) over the past four seasons.

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