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Tag: Inflation

  • Slowdown in US hiring suggests economy still needs rate cuts, Fed’s Powell says

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — A sharp slowdown in hiring poses a growing risk to the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday, a sign that the Fed will likely cut its key interest rate twice more this year.

    Powell said in a speech in Philadelphia that despite the federal government shutdown cutting off official economic data, “the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting,” when the Fed reduced its key rate for the first time this year.

    Fed officials at that meeting also forecast that the central bank would reduce its rate twice more this year and once in 2026. Lower rates from the Fed could reduce borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and business loans. Powell spoke before a meeting of the National Association of Business Economics.

    Powell reiterated a message he first delivered after the September meeting, when he signaled that the Fed is slightly more worried about the job market than its other congressional mandate, which is to keep prices stable. Tariffs have lifted the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation to 2.9%, he said, but outside the duties there aren’t “broader inflationary pressures” that will keep prices high.

    “Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks,” he said.

    Economists said Powell’s remarks solidified expectations for further rate cuts, starting at its next meeting Oct. 28-29.

    “While there was little doubt the (Fed) was angled to cut rates at its next meeting, today’s remarks were strong confirmation of that expectation,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a note to clients.

    Powell also said that the central bank may soon stop shrinking its roughly $6.6 trillion balance sheet. The Fed has been allowing roughly $40 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to mature each month without replacing them.

    “We may approach that point in coming months,” Powell said.

    The shift could slightly lower borrowing costs over time. Economists at BMO Capital Markets estimated that the yields on Treasury securities ticked down slightly after Powell’s remarks.

    Separately, Powell spent most of his speech defending the Fed’s practice of buying longer-term Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in 2020 and 2021, which were intended to lower longer-term interest rates and support the economy during the pandemic.

    Yet those purchases have come under a torrent of criticism from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as well as some of the candidates floated by the Trump administration to replace Powell when his term as Chair ends next May.

    Bessent said in an extended critique published earlier this year that the huge purchases of bonds during the pandemic worsened inequality by boosting the stock market, without providing noticeable benefits to the economy.

    Other critics have long argued that the Fed kept implementing the purchases for too long, keeping interest rates low even as inflation began to spike in late 2021. The Fed beginning in 2021 stopped the purchases and then sharply boosted borrowing costs to combat inflation.

    “With the clarity of hindsight, we could have—and perhaps should have—stopped asset purchases sooner,” Powell said. “Our real-time decisions were intended to serve as insurance against downside risk.”

    Yet Powell said that moving earlier would not have prevented the COVID-era inflation spike: “Stopping sooner could have made some difference, but not likely enough to fundamentally alter the trajectory of the economy.”

    Powell also said the purchases were intended to avoid a breakdown in the market for Treasury securities, which could have sent interest rates much higher.

    The Fed chair also addressed a move by a bipartisan group of senators to stop the central bank from paying interest on the cash reserves banks park at the Fed. A measure to prevent the Fed from doing so was defeated in the Senate last week by the lopsided vote of 83-14.

    Still, it garnered support from both parties, including Republican senators Rand Paul from Kentucky and Ted Cruz from Texas, as well as Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

    Powell said that without the ability to pay interest on reserves, the Fed “would lose control over rates” and wouldn’t be able to carry out its mission. The Fed lifts the short-term interest rate it controls when it wants to cool borrowing and spending and slow inflation, while it cuts the rate to encourage borrowing, growth, and hiring.

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  • After winning Trump’s $20 billion, President Milei must win votes as Argentine industry reels

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    BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — The factory floor used to roar.

    Walking around his textile mill in southern Buenos Aires, Luciano Galfione pointed out the up-to-the-minute machines that once whirred and clattered as 200 employees churned out fabric to be transformed into athleisure and other apparel for Argentina’s vast middle class.

    But on Monday afternoon, the factory was so quiet that Galfione’s footsteps rang clear through the compound. A handful of workers at the Galfione Group factory in Argentina’s capital spooled yarn and dyed cloth.

    Almost two years after libertarian President Javier Milei stormed to power on a promise to rescue Argentina’s crisis-stricken economy through harsh austerity and free-market reforms, falling orders and surging competition have forced Galfione to cut operations by 80%, lay off or suspend half his staff and use his own savings to keep his family’s 78-year-old firm afloat.

    Other companies have simply closed their doors. Over 17,600 businesses — among them 1,800 manufacturers and 380 textile companies — have folded in the last year and a half, according to Fundación Pro Tejer, a nonprofit representing textile manufacturers.

    “We’re seeing an industry in crisis, and it’s about to go bankrupt,” said Galfione, who also runs Fundación Pro Tejer. “Not only textiles. Textiles are just the first and fastest to fall.”

    As Argentina heads to Oct. 26 midterm elections widely seen as a referendum on Milei’s policies, Galfione’s troubles reflect bigger shocks jolting the country. The economy has sputtered. Cheap imports have gutted manufacturing. Spending has stumbled, squeezed by higher unemployment and lower wages.

    The turmoil engulfing Argentine financial markets began when voters in the manufacturing belt of suburban Buenos Aires — a region that for decades represented the dream of national industry nurtured by tariff protection — punished Milei in a provincial election last month.

    The scale of Milei’s humiliation triggered a sharp peso sell-off and sent officials scrambling to secure $20 billion in financing from a friendly Trump administration.

    President Donald Trump, who sees a kindred spirit and fellow culture warrior in Argentina’s chain saw wielding leader, shocked Argentines and Americans alike Tuesday by warning that the $20 billion was contingent on Milei’s success in what is shaping up to be a hotly contested legislative election.

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went further on Wednesday, saying that the U.S. could tap investment funds to provide Argentina with up to $40 billion.

    “Just helping a great philosophy take over a great country,” Trump explained after meeting Milei at the White House.

    Thousands of miles away, many Argentines are losing patience with that philosophy.

    Those interviewed on the streets of Buenos Aires Wednesday had no illusions about Trump’s lifeline fixing their problems.

    “Let’s say they give us this money from abroad. What am I going to do with it?” asked Walter Willatt, a 56-year-old newsstand owner whose son was just laid off from a local Toyota dealership. “If the economy revives it will have to be through domestic consumption.”

    Over a year ago, markets cheered as Milei fulfilled his flagship promise to reduce the runway inflation that he inherited from his populist predecessors. Many Argentines — who had grown accustomed to supermarkets revising prices upward everyday — hailed Milei’s program as a miraculous outbreak of normalcy in a notoriously topsy-turvy economy.

    But today, price stability is old news as Argentines contend with a lengthening list of worries.

    Unemployment in Buenos Aires Province climbed to 9.8% in the second quarter of this year, compared to 7.3% during the same period in 2023, before Milei entered office. Salaries nationwide haven’t kept up with inflation. Milei’s major subsidy cuts mean that even if prices have stabilized, Argentines are paying more for bus fares, utility bills and healthcare.

    “Milei’s challenge is that the public now assumes inflation has gone down, that’s a given,” said Marcelo J. García, Director for the Americas for the Horizon Engage political risk consultancy firm. “There’s a new generation of demands. The economy needs to grow, there needs to be job creation. I’m not sure that government is prepared to meet those demands.”

    Rodolfo Núñez, a 43-year-old former factory worker in Pilar, outside Buenos Aires, said he voted for Milei in 2023 because he wanted change. Then the blows began to fall. His daughter’s epilepsy medication shot up in price. His retired parents struggled to afford groceries on their $300-a-month pension.

    On Aug. 29, the ceramic factory where he worked for the last 18 years shut down. The company, ILVA, fired all the plant’s 300 workers in a WhatsApp message that cited the economic crisis, leaving Núñez and his colleagues in limbo, without severance pay or health insurance.

    ILVA did not respond to a request for comment.

    “What Milei promised, he didn’t do. He messed with retirees, he messed with my daughter and he messed with the workers,” he said from outside the padlocked ILVA factory where dozens of dismissed employees now camp out in protest, the air filled with smoke from burning tires and roasting chicken.

    “What do I tell my landlord? That I can’t pay her next month? Where am I going to go?”

    Núñez said he voted for the opposition in last month’s regional elections.

    Government statistics show poor and middle-class households cutting back on all but essential spending. Clothing sales, for instance, fell 10.9% in September compared to the year before. The collapsed consumption reverberates down the supply chain.

    “We’re reducing costs as much as we can, trying to survive with very low production and without making money,” said Alejandro Schvartz, owner of Visuar, a household appliance vendor and producer whose sales dropped roughly 25% in the first half of this year.

    Other policies that Milei depends on to fight inflation — such as high interest rates and central bank interventions to defend the peso — further erode the competitiveness of Argentine industry.

    The peso has become so strong that shoppers now get more bang for their buck by splurging anywhere but Argentina — from Chile’s malls to Brazil’s beaches.

    Upon taking office, Milei tore down trade barriers and relaxed import restrictions, opening Argentina to an avalanche of cheaper industrial and textile products. Chinese e-commerce companies like Temu and Shein pay no import duties for products valued below $400.

    But Milei maintained sky-high taxes for Argentine manufacturers, giving local companies no choice but to pass on the cost to consumers.

    “This is not a fair playing field,” said Pablo Yeramian, director of the Argentine textile company Norfabril, who has already cut 20% of his staff.

    As scenes of Milei beaming beside Trump in Washington flashed across Argentine televisions on Tuesday, some manufacturers couldn’t help wishing that the similarity between the two presidents was, in at least one way, more than just rhetorical.

    “No developed country in the world surrenders its industrial sovereignty,” said Galfione, pointing to Trump’s “Made in America” ambitions for the U.S. “I think instead of doing what the U.S. tells us, we should do what they do.”

    ___

    Associated Press writer Andrea Vulcano in Buenos Aires, Argentina, contributed to this report.

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  • California restaurant owner says tariffs, inflation leave him

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    Inglewood, California — One family’s legacy, an Italian restaurant called Sunday Gravy that’s been operating for decades, is now “barely breaking even,” owner Sol Bashirian says, as tariffs and inflation are eating into its profits.

    “It’s just the reality of where the food industry is at,” Bashirian told CBS News, noting he’s spending thousands of dollars more each month on imported ingredients.

    His family has been in business in Inglewood, California, just south of Los Angeles, for decades, and has seen a 30% bump in sales since last year. But the family’s legacy could go stale.

    “My dad put an offer together, and grabbed all his savings and bought this place. And here we are now, almost 50 years later,” Bashirian said.

    Financial analyst R.J. Hottovy with Placer.ai — a real estate software company that advises restaurants across the U.S. — says eateries that cater to lower- and middle-income consumers are hurting financially, and so are their customers.

    “That group is facing cost pressures on a number of fronts, not just food, but other things like rent and inflation,” Hottovy said.

    A report released earlier this month by the cloud-based management company Toast shows that 48% of the restaurants surveyed plan to raise menu prices if costs continue to rise. 

    The National Restaurant Association says menu prices would need to increase by 30.3% just to maintain a thin profit margin of 5% under the current economic conditions.

    “It sounds easy, but there is a process behind it,” Bashirian said. “It’s reprinting a menu, and the printing costs associated with that.”

    Bashirian says the sticker shock of a price hike could “absolutely” drive away customers from even coming to the restaurant.

    “It’s pasta, and pasta is not supposed to be crazy expensive,” Bashirian said.

    For now, Sunday Gravy is adding a 5% surcharge on the bill to offset tariffs. Under California law, restaurant owners are allowed to add an extra fee if it’s “clearly and conspicuously displayed” on menus.

    “There is price fatigue,” Hottovy said. “I think consumers have been paying higher prices for many years. And there is a breaking point for a lot of these consumers.”

    The National Restaurant Association is pushing for imported food and beverages to be exempt from the Trump administration’s tariffs, arguing that hikes could cost the industry billions this year alone.

    “It would allow us to at least have an attempt at a fighting chance, and flourishing and continuing on,” Bashirian said of the possibility of receiving relief from tariffs. 

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  • Restaurant owner says he’s “barely breaking even” amid tariffs, inflation

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    One family’s legacy, an Italian restaurant called Sunday Gravy that’s been operating for decades, is now “barely breaking even,” owner Sol Bashirian says, as tariffs and inflation are eating into its profits. Elise Preston reports.

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  • Cantor: Rising costs squeeze Long Island small businesses | Long Island Business News

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    In Brief:
    • Nearly 89% of Long Island businesses have five or fewer employees, making them vulnerable to and rising costs.
    • Restaurants face pressure from higher labor, food and energy costs, forcing many to cut staff, raise prices or close.
    • has fallen as rent, energy and insurance costs rise faster than wages.
    • Consumers are shifting spending toward discount retailers and essentials, leaving struggling to survive.

    Long Island small businesses are having a tough time, and with nearly 89% of Long Island businesses having five or fewer employees, that would portend difficult times ahead for the backbone of Long Island’s economy. The signs are everywhere. Neighborhood restaurants and shopping stores are closing, and vacant storefronts in community strip malls are growing. Even the haircutter I have been going to for over 30 years—after reducing her days of operation to three days—is wondering if she can hang on.

    The combination of rising labor and food costs fueled by minimum wage increases and inflation, restaurants are deciding to either raise prices, reduce menu options, operate with fewer employees, or just close for good. Other small businesses are finding it difficult competing with online sales, which have increased by 9.1%.  With consumers being 70% of the economy, Long Island consumers are not only having difficulty in supporting their local businesses, but also in meeting the needs of their household budgets. When household necessities of rent, energy and food claim most of what an employee earns, there is little discretionary income to spend in local stores.

    The U.S. Census and related housing market and consumer expenditure data indicate that 33% of earnings are spent for housing costs, 30% for federal and state withholding taxes, and 13% for food. The balance of 24% of earnings—or discretionary income—would be spent on property taxes, insurance and transportation, with what’s left spent in local businesses. However, this discretionary income is sure to decrease, considering the latest data indicating that rents have increased by 3.8%—the largest increase since 2011. This also includes electricity and natural gas increasing by 6.2% and 13.8%, respectively since last year. Additionally, for those who purchase insurance on the federal marketplace, premiums are estimated to increase by 75%.

    The U.S. Census is scheduled to release updated consumer expenditure data at the end of this month, and with inflation and costs outpacing wage increases, it can be expected that (at best) the 24% discretionary income will remain. However, more likely any discretionary income will decrease. Both options are not good news for struggling businesses, with any relief from consumers not appearing on the horizon.

    Consumers concerned about their financial future is not new. What is new is that consumer confidence is at the lowest level since June 2023, when the economy was struggling to rebound from the pandemic. This concern has impacted spending patterns, leaving businesses playing catch up with consumers as they become more selective in their purchase choices that include seeking better value for their dollar, and goods and services reflective of their lifestyle changes.

    Placer Research has found that consumers are choosing to shop at discount, dollar stores and off-priced apparel than conventional department stores. As for major, big ticket costly renovations to homes and wardrobe, consumers are favoring lower-cost wardrobe updating and refreshing home décor, while deferring larger electronics and home improvement spending. And as my haircutter is finding out: Shorter customer trips are giving way to longer visits.

    Discretionary income is crucial to Long Island’s small business base, and with economic headwinds and increased everyday costs, discretionary household budgets are being squeezed, leaving consumers with little choice but to be selective in how they spend their discretionary income.

    Not a welcome message to Long Island’s small business base.

     

    is director of the Long Island Center for Socio-Economic Policy and former Suffolk County economic development commissioner. He can be reached at [email protected].


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  • Average long-term US mortgage rate slips to 6.27%, nearing a low for 2025

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    The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage declined again this week, easing to just above its lowest level this year.

    The average long-term mortgage rate slipped to 6.27% from 6.3% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.44%.

    The latest dip brings the average rate to just above 6.26%, where it was four weeks ago after a string of declines brought down home loan borrowing costs to their lowest level since early October 2024.

    Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, also eased this week. The average rate dropped to 5.52% from 5.53% last week. A year ago, it was 5.63%, Freddie Mac said.

    Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decisions to bond market investors’ expectations for the economy and inflation. They generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.

    The 10-year yield was at 4.02% at midday Thursday, down from around 4.14% the same time last week.

    Mortgage rates started declining in July in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s decision last month to cut its main interest rate for the first time in a year amid growing concern over the U.S. job market.

    At their September policy meeting, Fed officials forecast that the central bank would reduce its rate twice more this year and once in 2026. Still, the Fed could change course if inflation jumps amid the Trump administration’s expanding use of tariffs and the recent trade war escalation with China.

    Even if the Fed opts to cut its short-term rate further that doesn’t necessarily mean mortgage rates will keep declining. Last fall, after the Fed cut its rate for the first time in more than four years, mortgage rates marched higher, eventually reaching just above 7% in January this year.

    The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has remained above 6% since September 2022, the year mortgage rates began climbing from historic lows. The housing market has been in a slump ever since.

    Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes sank last year to their lowest level in nearly 30 years. So far this year, sales are running below where they were at this time in 2024.

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  • Government shutdown delays Social Security’s cost-of-living announcement. Here’s what to know.

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    The Social Security Administration’s annual announcement setting next year’s cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, will be delayed because of the government shutdown, the agency said.

    Each year, the Social Security Administration adjusts benefits for its 75 million recipients based on recent inflation data, which ensures that seniors, disabled Americans and other beneficiaries don’t lose purchasing power as prices rise.

    Social Security had planned to announce the new COLA on Oct. 15, the same day the Labor Department was scheduled to release September Consumer Price Index data, a key measure of inflation. The COLA is determined by inflation figures for the third quarter, which covers July through September.

    With much of the government’s economic data on hold until Congress approves federal funding, the Bureau of Labor Statistics now plans to release its latest CPI figures on Oct. 24, about nine days later than planned. The Social Security Administration told CBS News it plans to issue its COLA announcement that same day.

    “The Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced they will issue the September 2025 Consumer Price Index on October 24,” the Social Security Administration said in an Oct. 14 email. “The Social Security Administration will use this release to generate and announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment on October 24 as well.”

    The new COLA will take effect starting Jan. 1, 2026, without any delays due to the ongoing shutdown, the agency added. 

    How much of a living adjustment?

    According to an estimate published last month by the Senior Citizens League, the annual COLA for 2026 could be around 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.5% increase beneficiaries received in 2025.

    The League, an advocacy group for older Americans, based its most recent projection on August inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Because the SSA will also include September inflation data in its COLA rate, that number could change when it’s announced later this month. 

    AARP, another advocacy group for older people, expects the 2026 COLA to range from 2.6% to 2.9%. A 2.7% boost in benefits would lift the average monthly payment for retired workers by $54, from $2,008 to $2,062. 

    Where is inflation now?

    The September CPI is forecast to rise to an annual rate of 3.1% up from 2.9% in August, according to economists polled by FactSet.

    According to economists, inflation is edging higher due partly to the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs, which have hit imports from across the globe, such as clothing, food, steel and toys. While some businesses stockpiled imported goods earlier this year to avoid raising rising prices, some are now passing the import taxes on to their customers. 

    “Core goods pressures have started to heat up, marking the beginning of a delayed tariff passthrough,” RBC economists Michael Reid and Carrie Freestone said in an Oct. 14 report. “Concerningly, the breadth of inflationary pressures has widened — 45% of CPI basket items are now reporting price growth at or above 3%, compared to roughly two-thirds pre-pandemic.”

    Some retirees could face a financial pinch if prices continues to climb and their 2026 Social Security adjustment fails to keep pace with inflation. The Federal Reserve forecasts that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, its favored measure of inflation, will rise to 3.1% this year before receding to 2.6% in 2026.

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  • Small Business Confidence Just Dropped for First Time in 3 Months

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    Small business owners remain worried about the same things that top the monthly survey used to create the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which slipped 2.0 points in September to 98.8, the first drop in three months. Shortages of qualified employees, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions led the list of challenges cited by business owners, who say they’re currently in good shape but are unsure of thier near-term outlooks.

    While the survey, though it remains above its 52-year average of 98, the corresponding Uncertainty Index rose 7 points from August to 100, the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years.

    “Optimism among small business owners decreased in September,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg in a press release. “While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how policy changes will impact their operations.”

    Costs and supplies were prominent concerns, as inflation pushed the net percent of owners raising prices by 3 percentage points from August to a seasonally adjusted net 24 percent. Also, 14 percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem, up 3 percentage points from August, while the 64 percent who reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business saw a 10 percentage point leap from the previous month. In a 5 percentage point monthly jump, 31 percent of business owners said they plan to increase prices over the next three months, up 5 points from August.

    Some bright spots included owners reporting higher earnings in September, a 3 percentage point jump from August, and the highest level since December 2021. And while labor quality remained an issue, only 18 percent said it was their biggest problem, down from 21 percent the previous month.

    Still, 32 percent of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in September, unchanged from August. The last time unfiled job openings fell below 32 percent was in July 2020. Of the 58 percent of owners hiring or trying to hire in September, 88 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 16 percent of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up 1 point from August and the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Hiring plans are at their highest level since January.

    Access to affordable capital got tougher in September, as 7 percent of owners reported that their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, up 4 points from August and the highest reading of the year. Furthermore, a net 7 percent reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan and the average rate paid on short maturity loans was 8.8 percent in September, up 0.7 points from August. Twenty-six percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, up 3 points from August. Four percent reported that financing and interest rates was their top business problem in September, unchanged from August.

    As national health care costs continue rising, 8 percent of owners reported the cost or availability of insurance as their single most important problem, down 1 percentage point from August.

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    Will Swarts

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  • China’s exports of electric vehicles doubled in September

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    HONG KONG — HONG KONG (AP) — China’s exports of electric vehicles doubled in September from a year earlier as its automakers expanded their reach into overseas markets.

    Domestic passenger car sales climbed 11.2% year-on-year in last month down from a 15% rise in August, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Tuesday.

    Exports of “new energy vehicles,” including battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, jumped 100% to 222,000 units in September, the industry organization said. That was slightly lower than the 224,000 units exported in August.

    China’s EV makers have been increasingly looking abroad to markets such as Europe and Southeast Asia as overcapacity and price wars back home have pressured their profit margins. They invested more abroad than inside China last year, for the first time since 2014, the U.S.-based consultancy Rhodium Group said in a recent report.

    BYD -– one of China’s largest EV makers -– said this month that the United Kingdom has become its largest market outside China. Its sales there rocketed 880% year-on-year in September.

    Chinese automakers increasingly are expanding investments in the Middle East and Africa after the European Union, U.S., Canada and other countries imposed stiff tariffs on Chinese-made EVs.

    In China, manufacturers have been cracking down on price wars that have raged due to fierce competition.

    BYD’s monthly domestic sales fell in September for the first time since February 2024, down 5.5% from the same month a year earlier, while some of its rivals still recorded strong growth in sales.

    September is a traditional peak period for auto sales in China, with carmakers launching various new models in a month dubbed “Golden September.”

    Subsidies for trade-ins for new energy vehicles have helped lift domestic demand and sentiment, though some local governments have suspended such payments in recent months.

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  • GoFundMe CEO says the economy is so bad that more of his customers are crowdfunding just to pay for their groceries | Fortune

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    GoFundMe’s CEO just said the quiet part out loud: in this economy, more Americans are crowdfunding groceries to get by.

    The head of GoFundMe, Tim Cadogan, told Yahoo! Finance the economy is so challenged that more Americans are raising money to buy food—an arresting data point that captures the widening gap between household budgets and basic needs.

    In a recent interview on the Opening Bid Unfiltered podcast with Brian Sozzi, he described a notable rise in campaigns for essentials like groceries, a shift from one-off emergencies toward everyday survival.

    “Basic things you need to get through life [have] gone up significantly in the last three years in practically all our markets,” Cadogan said.

    That evolution underscores the new economic reality for many Americans: persistent inflation, higher borrowing costs, and thin financial cushions are forcing many households to triage bills, juggle debt, and seek help in new ways.

    Groceries as the new emergency

    Cadogan’s observation—that more people are asking strangers to help pay for staples—marks a sobering turn for a platform historically associated with medical bills, disaster relief, and community projects. When the cost of food stretches paychecks past the breaking point, crowdfunding morphs from altruism to a parallel safety net.

    In previous Fortune coverage of inflation’s long tail, consumers’ coping tactics have included trading down brands, shrinking baskets, delaying car repairs, and leaning on credit cards. The shift Cadogan describes suggests those tactics have run out of runway for a growing slice of the country, especially younger and lower-income households who rent, commute, and carry variable-rate debt.

    The inflation aftershock

    Even as headline inflation cools from its peak, elevated price levels remain embedded in household budgets. Fortune has tracked how cumulative inflation, not just the monthly prints, weighs on families. For instance, groceries cost more than they did two or three years ago, rents have reset higher, and child care is straining paychecks.

    Wage gains helped many workers, but unevenly and often after costs had already jumped. For families without savings buffers, a higher cost baseline is the real story. That backdrop explains why an uptick in grocery campaigns on GoFundMe isn’t a curiosity—it’s a barometer of the current economy.

    The credit crunch at the kitchen table

    Household balance sheets have been whipsawed by stubbornly high prices on necessities as well as steeper borrowing costs on credit cards and auto loans. Fortune’s reporting has highlighted rising delinquency rates among younger borrowers and the squeeze from student loan repayments resuming after a long pause. For some, the social capital of friends, community groups, and online donors now substitutes for financial capital. Crowdfunding groceries is a last-mile solution in a system where wages, benefits, and public supports haven’t fully bridged the gap.

    The Great Wealth Transfer meets a giving plateau

    Cadogan also frames this moment as an opportunity: the U.S. is entering a historic wealth transfer as baby boomers pass tens of trillions to heirs and philanthropy. Yet overall charitable giving as a share of GDP has struggled to break out sustainably above roughly 2%. A central challenge is converting private balance-sheet strength into public generosity at scale. Fortune has explored the paradox of robust asset markets—fueled by equities, real estate, and private investments—coexisting with widespread financial insecurity. The wealth transfer could amplify that divergence or narrow it, depending on whether inheritors and living donors commit to more dynamic, needs-based giving.

    Gen Z, millennials, and a new donor thesis

    The GoFundMe CEO hopes younger donors, who are often more values-driven, digitally native, and community-oriented, will push giving higher and faster.

    These cohorts already power mutual aid networks and micro-giving online; the question is whether that instinct can scale beyond one-off campaigns to sustained support for food security, housing stability, and local services.

    If employer matching, donor-advised vehicles, and purpose-built funds become easier to use—and if transparency and immediacy remain high—small-dollar giving could compound into a measurable macro effect.

    What comes next

    Many Americans remain one shock away from going into arrears. More GoFundMe campaigns for groceries fits that narrative and raises a challenge to wealth holders on the cusp of inheritance decisions.

    If the wealth transfer is the economic story of the decade, the generosity transfer might be its moral counterpart. Whether giving can rise meaningfully above its long-running share of the economy will hinge on channeling today’s empathy into tomorrow’s infrastructure, so that no one needs to pass the hat to put food on the table.

    For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

    Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.

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    Ashley Lutz

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  • Economists expect faster growth, but weaker job gains, through 2025

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    The U.S. economy could be on the upswing even if tariffs and stubborn inflation continue to weigh on growth, according to a new analysis.

    The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) said Monday it expects the nation’s gross domestic product — a measure of the total value of goods and services — to rise 1.8% in 2025, up from the group’s previous estimate in June of 1.3%.

    The survey, which was conducted from Sept. 17-25, consulted 40 economists on their forecasts for labor growth, inflation and other key metrics for the remainder of the year and into 2026. NABE also expects the economy to expand at a faster pace in 2026, at 1.7%, higher than its June forecast of 1.4%. 

    The report is the latest signal that economic growth continues to hold up despite rising inflation and a recent slowdown in the labor market. After economic activity shrank in the first three months of 2025, growth has accelerated over the rest of the year, EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco, vice president of NABE, told CBS News. The outlook for business investment in particular has improved, he noted. 

    The economy could get a further boost this year from the Federal Reserve. NABE expects Fed officials, who trimmed their benchmark rate in September for the first time since 2024, to lower borrowing costs by another quarter of a percentage point by year-end and by a total of three-quarters of percentage point in 2026. 

    Pain points remain

    While the economy has performed better than many experts predicted earlier this year, there are still signs of weakness. Government data indicates that job growth has deteriorated since the first half of the year. 

    As hiring cools, meanwhile, the percentage of long-term job seekers — people unemployed for 27 weeks or longer — has risen to 26% of the total unemployed population, the highest in more than three years, labor data shows. 

    Layoffs are also climbing. Through September, employers this year have cut nearly 950,000 jobs, the largest number of layoffs since 2020, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. 

    Looking ahead, NABE expects the job market to remain fragile. Economists predict average monthly payroll gains of 60,000 for the rest the year, down from the 87,000 the group forecasted in June. From January to August, employers added an average of around 75,000 jobs per month, according to government data. 

    NABE projects that the nation’s unemployment rate, 4.3 % as of August, will rise to 4.5% in 2026. 

    Bar chart showing the monthly change in U.S. nonfarm payroll employment from 2022 to 2025.

    Another lingering pain point for the economy is inflation, which remains above the Fed’s 2% annual target. NABE expects inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — to rise at an annualized rate of 3% over the rest of 2025. 

    Nearly all of those surveyed — 95% — expect U.S. tariffs to drive up consumer prices over the rest of the year, according to NABE, although the group now expects stepped-up duties on imports to have less of an inflationary impact than it previously predicted. As a result, inflation is projected to cool to 2.5% by the end of 2026, according to the panel of economists. 

    A recession is unlikely, according to NABE. Most of the economists polled by the group put the odds of a slump in the next 12 months at between 20% and less than 40%.

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  • Californians spend $8,640 more than other Americans. Where did it go?

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    We all know that California is a pricey place to live.

    However, what drives those higher expenses is not just housing, although putting a California roof over your head is the largest expense.

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    Jonathan Lansner

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  • Trump bet China would face ‘tremendous difficulties’ without U.S. consumers—Beijing just focused on the rest of the world instead | Fortune

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    At the beginning of his tariff standoff with Beijing, President Trump was confident in his strong hand. China’s economy was reliant on U.S. consumers, he said, and so it would have to make some compromises or risk losing them.

    “China has been hit much harder than the USA, not even close,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, the social media site he owns, in April. Later that month, he admitted that while American shoppers may have to cut back on Chinese-produced consumption, the White House’s tariff plan meant the Chinese government was “having tremendous difficulty because their factories are not doing business.”

    Six months later and it seems Beijing has simply circumnavigated the U.S. by focusing on increasing its exports to the rest of the world. The diversification has been so successful that China’s export market is actually tracking significant growth despite the trade war.

    According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China’s shipments to the U.S. fell 27% in September, the sixth month of double-digit declines to its once most valuable customer. Meanwhile it charted strong growth to areas like the European Union (currently operating under a 15% tariff rate from the White House), leading to export growth to non-U.S. countries of 14.8%.

    The shift away from the U.S. means exports are actually up 8.3% in September compared to a year ago, raking in  $328.6 billion—its highest total for 2025 so far.

    China’s economy is fairing better than expectations outlined back in April, when President Trump first made his tariff plans known. Earlier in the year World Bank speculated China’s economy would grow 4% in 2025, but last week revised this up to 4.8%. Likewise, it upped its expectations for 2026 from 4% to 4.2%.

    Conversely, in June the World Bank cut its expectations for U.S. growth by 0.9 percentage points to 1.4% for 2025.

    This backdrop means Trump’s threat last week to impose 100% tariffs on China may not have held the potency it once did. Having been relatively successful in side-stepping Trump’s tariffs so far, Beijing responded forcefully to the Oval Office’s threat, blasting it as a “double standard.”

    A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce said: “Frequently threatening high tariffs is not the right approach to engaging with China. China’s position on a tariff war is consistent: we do not want one, but we are not afraid of one.”

    Room for compromise

    Having issued the warning—and with both sides still operating under a pause on reciprocal tariffs until November 10—President Trump did then seek to strike a more reasoned tone, and sent futures climbing as a result.

    “I think we’re going to be fine with China,” Trump told reporters on board Air Force One yesterday afternoon. “I have a great relationship with President Xi, he’s a very tough man, a very smart man, he’s a great leader for their country and I have a great relationship with him.

    “I think we’ll get it set. I know what happened, I really understand what happened, and I’m not even saying he’s wrong. But then we met him with something much tougher than what he did to us.”

    The back-and-forth may simply boil down to showmanship, wrote Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid in a note to clients the morning: “There’s still plenty of time for negotiations, and I suspect the market will begin to price in a reasonable probability of a deal once the initial shock fades.

    “For what its worth, Polymarket has the probabilities of the two Presidents meeting by October 31st at 62% this morning, down from a peak of 88% last week but up from around 35% at the lows on Friday night. So there is a belief emerging that this is mostly negotiating tactics on both sides.”

    UBS’s Paul Donovan also noted the Oval Office’s appetite for negotiation, telling clients this morning: “Both Trump and U.S. Vice President Vance have made conciliatory noises which suggests that there may be some kind of retreat from the original threat.”

    “While the U.S. is obviously not able to publish data at the moment, the trend recently has the two countries’ data showing China selling U.S. more than the U.S. was buying from China,” he added. “That anomaly hints very strongly at rerouting by China to enable U.S. importers to avoid some of the tariffs.”

    Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.

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    Eleanor Pringle

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  • Report: Mass. cities, towns face ‘historic’ fiscal crisis

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    BOSTON — Massachusetts cities and towns are facing a “historic fiscal crisis” amid rising operating costs, lackluster state aid and restraints on property tax increases, according to a new report.

    The “Perfect Storm” report, released by the Massachusetts Municipal Association, found that while state government spending has increased by an average of 2.8% per year since 2010 to meet its needs, restraints on local revenue sources – including Proposition 2 1⁄2 – have held city and town spending to just 0.6% per year.


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    By Christian M. Wade | Statehouse Reporter

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  • Trump Says Inflation is ‘Defeated’ and the Fed has Cut Rates, Yet Prices Remain Too High for Many

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    Inflation has risen in three of the last four months and is slightly higher than it was a year ago, when it helped sink then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign. Yet you wouldn’t know it from listening to President Donald Trump or even some of the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve.

    Trump told the United Nations General Assembly late last month: “Grocery prices are down, mortgage rates are down, and inflation has been defeated.”

    And at a high-profile speech in August, just before the Fed cut its key interest rate for the first time this year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said: “Inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs. Upside risks to inflation have diminished.”

    Yet dismissing or even downplaying inflation while it is still above the Fed’s target of 2 percent poses big risks for the White House and the Federal Reserve. For the Trump administration, it could find itself on the wrong side of a potent issue: Surveys show that many Americans still see high prices as a major burden on their finances.

    The Fed may be taking an even bigger gamble: It has cut its key interest rate on the assumption that the Trump administration’s tariffs will only cause a temporary bump up in inflation. If that turns out to be wrong — if inflation gets worse or remains elevated for longer than expected — the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility could take a hit.

    That credibility plays a crucial role in the Fed’s ability to keep prices stable. If Americans are confident that the central bank can keep inflation in check, they won’t take steps — such as demanding sharply higher pay when prices rise — that can launch an inflationary spiral. Companies often increase prices further to offset higher labor costs.

    But Karen Dynan, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said this week that with memories of pandemic-era inflation still fresh and tariffs pushing up the cost of imported goods, consumers and businesses could start to lose confidence that inflation will stay low.

    “If that proves to be the case, in hindsight it will be that the Fed cuts — and I do expect several more — are going to be seen as a mistake,” Dynan said.

    So far, the Trump administration’s tariffs haven’t lifted inflation as much as as many economists expected earlier this year. And it remains far below its 9.1 percent peak three years ago. Still, consumer prices increased 2.9 percent in August from a year earlier, up from 2.6 percent at the same time last year and above the Fed’s 2 percent target.

    The government is scheduled to release the September inflation report on Wednesday, but the data will probably be delayed by the government shutdown.

    Tariffs have pushed up the cost of many imported items, including furniture, appliances, and toys. Overall, the cost of long-lasting manufactured goods rose nearly 2 percent in August from a year earlier. It was a modest gain, but comes after nearly three decades when the cost of such items mostly fell.

    The cost of some everyday goods are still rising more quickly than before the pandemic: Grocery prices moved up 2.7 percent in August from a year ago, the largest gain, outside the pandemic, since 2015. Coffee prices have soared nearly 21 percent in the past year, partly because Trump has slapped 50 percent import taxes on Brazil, a leading coffee exporter, and also because climate change-induced droughts have cut into coffee bean harvests.

    Most Fed officials are still concerned that inflation is too high, according the minutes of its Sept. 16-17 meeting. Yet they still chose to cut their key interest rate, because they were more worried about the risk of worsening unemployment than about higher inflation.

    But the concern for some economists is that the ongoing rollout of tariffs and the fact that many companies are still implementing price hikes in response could result in more than just a temporary boost to inflation.

    “It is a big gamble after what we’ve been going through … to count on it being transitory,” said Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard University and a former top adviser to President Barack Obama. “Once upon a time, (3 percent inflation) would have been considered really high.”

    Just two weeks ago, Trump slapped new tariffs on a range of products, including 100 percent on pharmaceuticals, 50 percent on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and 25 percent on heavy trucks. On Friday, he threatened “a massive increase of tariffs” on imports from China in response to that country’s restrictions on rare earth exports.

    Some companies are still raising prices to offset the tariff costs. Duties on steel and aluminum imports have pushed up the cost of the cans used by Campbell Soups, leading the company’s CEO to say in September that it will implement “surgical pricing initiatives.”

    Chris Butler, CEO of National Tree Company, the nation’s largest artificial Christmas tree seller, says his company will raise prices by about 10 percent this holiday season on its trees, wreaths, and garlands to offset tariff costs. About 45 percent of its trees are made in China, with the rest from Southeast Asia, Mexico, and other countries. The cost of labor and real estate is too high to make them in the United States, he said.

    Butler also expects there will be a reduced supply of artificial trees and decorations this year, which could lift industry-wide prices further, because most production in China shut down when tariffs on that country hit 145 percent earlier this year. Production resumed after Trump reduced the duties to 30 percent but at a slower pace.

    Butler has pushed his suppliers to absorb some of the cost of the tariffs, but they won’t pay all of it.

    “At the end of the day, we can’t absorb the entirety of it and our factories can’t absorb the entirety of it,” he said. “So we’ve had to pass along some of the increases to consumers.”

    Many Fed policymakers are aware of the risks. Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, who votes on interest rate decisions, said Monday that high inflation that results from a loss of confidence in the central bank is harder to fight than other price spikes, such as those that result from supply disruptions.

    “The Fed must maintain its credibility on inflation,” Schmid said. “History has shown that while all inflations are universally disliked, not all inflations are equally costly to fight.”

    Yet some Fed officials say that other trends are offsetting the impact of tariffs. Fed governor Stephen Miran, whom Trump appointed just before the central bank’s September meeting, said Tuesday that a steady slowdown in rental costs should reduce underlying inflation in the coming months. And the sharp drop in immigration as a result of the administration’s clampdown will reduce demand, he said, cooling inflation pressures.

    “I’m more sanguine about the inflation outlook than a lot of other people are,” he said.

    Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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    Associated Press

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  • Trump says inflation is ‘defeated’ and the Fed has cut rates

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    WASHINGTON — WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation has risen in three of the last four months and is slightly higher than it was a year ago, when it helped sink then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign. Yet you wouldn’t know it from listening to President Donald Trump or even some of the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve.

    Trump told the United Nations General Assembly late last month: “Grocery prices are down, mortgage rates are down, and inflation has been defeated.”

    And at a high-profile speech in August, just before the Fed cut its key interest rate for the first time this year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said: “Inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs. Upside risks to inflation have diminished.”

    Yet dismissing or even downplaying inflation while it is still above the Fed’s target of 2% poses big risks for the White House and the Federal Reserve. For the Trump administration, it could find itself on the wrong side of a potent issue: Surveys show that many Americans still see high prices as a major burden on their finances.

    The Fed may be taking an even bigger gamble: It has cut its key interest rate on the assumption that the Trump administration’s tariffs will only cause a temporary bump up in inflation. If that turns out to be wrong — if inflation gets worse or remains elevated for longer than expected — the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility could take a hit.

    That credibility plays a crucial role in the Fed’s ability to keep prices stable. If Americans are confident that the central bank can keep inflation in check, they won’t take steps — such as demanding sharply higher pay when prices rise — that can launch an inflationary spiral. Companies often increase prices further to offset higher labor costs.

    But Karen Dynan, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said this week that with memories of pandemic-era inflation still fresh and tariffs pushing up the cost of imported goods, consumers and businesses could start to lose confidence that inflation will stay low.

    “If that proves to be the case, in hindsight it will be that the Fed cuts — and I do expect several more — are going to be seen as a mistake,” Dynan said.

    So far, the Trump administration’s tariffs haven’t lifted inflation as much as as many economists expected earlier this year. And it remains far below its 9.1% peak three years ago. Still, consumer prices increased 2.9% in August from a year earlier, up from 2.6% at the same time last year and above the Fed’s 2% target.

    The government is scheduled to release the September inflation report on Wednesday, but the data will probably be delayed by the government shutdown.

    Tariffs have pushed up the cost of many imported items, including furniture, appliances, and toys. Overall, the cost of long-lasting manufactured goods rose nearly 2% in August from a year earlier. It was a modest gain, but comes after nearly three decades when the cost of such items mostly fell.

    The cost of some everyday goods are still rising more quickly than before the pandemic: Grocery prices moved up 2.7% in August from a year ago, the largest gain, outside the pandemic, since 2015. Coffee prices have soared nearly 21% in the past year, partly because Trump has slapped 50% import taxes on Brazil, a leading coffee exporter, and also because climate change-induced droughts have cut into coffee bean harvests.

    Most Fed officials are still concerned that inflation is too high, according the minutes of its Sept. 16-17 meeting. Yet they still chose to cut their key interest rate, because they were more worried about the risk of worsening unemployment than about higher inflation.

    But the concern for some economists is that the ongoing rollout of tariffs and the fact that many companies are still implementing price hikes in response could result in more than just a temporary boost to inflation.

    “It is a big gamble after what we’ve been going through … to count on it being transitory,” said Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard University and a former top adviser to President Barack Obama. “Once upon a time, (3% inflation) would have been considered really high.”

    Just two weeks ago, Trump slapped new tariffs on a range of products, including 100% on pharmaceuticals, 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and 25% on heavy trucks. On Friday, he threatened “a massive increase of tariffs” on imports from China in response to that country’s restrictions on rare earth exports.

    Some companies are still raising prices to offset the tariff costs. Duties on steel and aluminum imports have pushed up the cost of the cans used by Campbell Soups, leading the company’s CEO to say in September that it will implement “surgical pricing initiatives.”

    Chris Butler, CEO of National Tree Company, the nation’s largest artificial Christmas tree seller, says his company will raise prices by about 10% this holiday season on its trees, wreaths, and garlands to offset tariff costs. About 45% of its trees are made in China, with the rest from Southeast Asia, Mexico, and other countries. The cost of labor and real estate is too high to make them in the United States, he said.

    Butler also expects there will be a reduced supply of artificial trees and decorations this year, which could lift industry-wide prices further, because most production in China shut down when tariffs on that country hit 145% earlier this year. Production resumed after Trump reduced the duties to 30% but at a slower pace.

    Butler has pushed his suppliers to absorb some of the cost of the tariffs, but they won’t pay all of it.

    “At the end of the day, we can’t absorb the entirety of it and our factories can’t absorb the entirety of it,” he said. “So we’ve had to pass along some of the increases to consumers.”

    Many Fed policymakers are aware of the risks. Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, who votes on interest rate decisions, said Monday that high inflation that results from a loss of confidence in the central bank is harder to fight than other price spikes, such as those that result from supply disruptions.

    “The Fed must maintain its credibility on inflation,” Schmid said. “History has shown that while all inflations are universally disliked, not all inflations are equally costly to fight.”

    Yet some Fed officials say that other trends are offsetting the impact of tariffs. Fed governor Stephen Miran, whom Trump appointed just before the central bank’s September meeting, said Tuesday that a steady slowdown in rental costs should reduce underlying inflation in the coming months. And the sharp drop in immigration as a result of the administration’s clampdown will reduce demand, he said, cooling inflation pressures.

    “I’m more sanguine about the inflation outlook than a lot of other people are,” he said.

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  • At this rate, the price of gold could soar to $10,000 per ounce in just three years | Fortune

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    After surging nearly 50% so far this year, gold could skyrocket 150% as early as 2028 if its current pace keeps up.

    The precious metal topped $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever earlier this week, then got another jolt Friday, when President Donald Trump said he will impose an additional 100% tariff on China and limit U.S. exports of software.

    Stocks suffered their worst loss since the height of Trump’s trade war chaos in April. The dollar fell while gold jumped 1.5%, reinforcing its status as a safe haven asset as investors lose confidence in the greenback.

    In a note on Monday, market veteran Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, went over his earlier bullish calls on gold, which has repeatedly reached his forecasts ahead of schedule.

    During that time, he cited gold’s traditional role as a hedge against inflation, central banks de-dollarizing after Russia’s assets were frozen, the bursting of China’s housing bubble, as well as Trump’s trade war and his attempts to upend the world’s geopolitical order.

    “We are now aiming for $5,000 in 2026,” Yardeni added. “If it continues on its current path, it could reach $10,000 before the end of the decade.”

    Based on gold’s trajectory since late 2023, the price could reach the $10,000-per-ounce milestone sometime between mid-2028 and early 2029.

    Gold has also gotten a lift recently from the Federal Reserve’s pivot back to rate cuts last month, with policymakers shifting more attention to the stagnating labor market and away from fighting inflation, which has remained stubbornly above their 2% target amid Trump’s tariffs.

    While the Fed hasn’t signaled an aggressive easing cycle, the prospect of more rate cuts while GDP growth remains strong has added to inflation concerns.

    At the same time, soaring debt among top developed economies, including the U.S., has turned investors skittish on global currencies. That’s fueled a so-called debasement trade that bets on precious metals and bitcoin assuming governments let inflation run hotter to ease debt burdens.

    In a note on Wednesday, Capital Economics climate and commodities economist Hamad Hussain said “FOMO” is creeping into the gold trade, making it harder to objectively value the metal. He expects prices to continue rising, though the pace of gains will slow as key tailwinds weaken.

    On the bullish side, Hussain pointed to Fed rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainty, and fiscal sustainability concerns. On the other hand, he noted the recent gold rally came as the dollar was stable (until Friday) with inflation-protected bond yields higher—telltale signs of market exuberance.

    “As ever, the lack of an income stream makes it notoriously hard to value gold objectively,” he said. “On balance, we think that gold prices will probably grind higher in nominal terms over the next couple of years.”

    Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.

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    Jason Ma

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  • Average long-term US mortgage rate eases to 6.3%, back to its lowest level in about a year

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    The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage edged lower this week, returning to its lowest level in about a year.

    The average long-term mortgage rate slipped to 6.3% from 6.34% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.32%.

    The modest drop brings the average rate back to where it was two weeks ago, after a string of declines brought down home loan borrowing costs to their lowest since early October 2024.

    Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, also eased this week. The average rate dropped to 5.53% from 5.55% last week. A year ago, it was 5.41%, Freddie Mac said.

    Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decisions to bond market investors’ expectations for the economy and inflation. They generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.

    The 10-year yield was at 4.13% at midday Thursday, up from around 4.09% the same time last week. The yield has been trending higher since it slid to around 4.02% on Sept. 11.

    In late July, mortgage rates started declining in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated decision last month to cut its main interest rate for the first time in a year amid growing concern over the U.S. job market.

    However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has since signaled a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts. That’s in sharp contrast with other members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee, particularly those who were appointed by President Donald Trump, who are pushing for faster cuts.

    Even if the Fed opts to cut its short-term rate further that doesn’t necessarily mean mortgage rates will keep declining. Last fall, after the Fed cut its rate for the first time in more than four years, mortgage rates ticked higher, eventually reaching just above 7% in January this year.

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  • ‘This is why they lock everything’: Boston man reaches for $24 Downy fabric softener. Then he exposes how he gets his ‘money’s worth’

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    You’re zipping down the aisle, checking items off your grocery list. Next up: fabric softener. You reach for the container, but when you lift it, something doesn’t seem quite right. Upon taking a closer look, you realize it’s not filled to the top. What do you do?

    A man in Boston, Massachusetts, has a solution that might also be part of the problem. In a viral TikTok, Louie (@beantownlouiee) demonstrates what he does when the Downy fabric softener seems underfilled.

    “When you go to the store you always gotta make sure you get your money’s worth,” Louie says, as he pulls a second container from the shelf.

    “This right here costs $24,” he continues, opening both containers. “You gotta always make sure you get your money’s worth, gang.

    “‘Cause this [expletive] costs too,” he trails off.

    Then Louie fills the first container to the brim, puts the top back on it, and replaces the second one on the shelf.

    “Expensive to not get your money’s worth, gang,” he continues.

    “Twenty-four dollars, I need that. I need every last drop,” Louie concludes. “Let’s go.”

    In the five days since he posted it, Louie’s clip has racked up 3.2 million views and over 1,000 comments. People are, in turn, amused, inspired, and exasperated.

    Why do Downy containers have so much empty space?

    In the caption on Louie’s post, he alludes to a widespread frustration consumers have with underfilled products. “First it was the chips … & NOW THIS???” he writes.

    Many people have complained that some bags of chips have more empty space than product.

    While this may seem nefarious, there is a perfectly reasonable explanation. The extra air in the bag acts as a cushion to keep the chips from getting crushed during shipping. No one likes a bag of broken chips, after all.

    Downy fabric softener isn’t a crushable product like chips, though.

    But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a legitimate reason why there’s enough empty space that it takes Louie several seconds to top off the first Downy container. For example, the machinery that fills Downy fabric softener could be set to leave some space to avoid spillage. Or it could be simple human error at the Downy plant.

    If Downy fabric softener intentionally or negligently contains less than the amount stated on the bottle, Procter & Gamble could get in serious trouble. It could be sued, fined, or lose consumer goodwill.

    “Pretty sure it’s illegal […] to only sell half a product for the full price so he’s good,” one person commented on Louie’s post. Another replied, “They sell the product at the [fluid ounces] marketed on the product. The reason it’s half a product is because of the video above.”

    Procter & Gamble didn’t respond to emails or a voicemail left Wednesday morning.

    No harm, no foul in the grocery aisle?

    Although some were amused, most people who commented on Louie’s video weren’t impressed.

    Many blamed his behavior for stores now locking up products.

    “Y’all be the reason some of us gotta wait 20 mins just for somebody to come unlock something that don’t needa be locked,” Bree commented.

    Kamo.n agreed, “This is why they lock everything.”

    Many pointed out that topping off Downy or any other product before you buy it is technically theft. “That’s gotta be illegal,” Pickle said. Prima responded, “Yes… stealing is illegal.. dude…”

    It is possible that Louie’s post is a sketch or a joke. He could’ve purchased both jugs of Downy, for instance.

    Louie didn’t respond to a direct message sent via TikTok.

    Others wondered about the shopper who ends up with the Downy he filled from.

    “But what about the next person who spends $24 on a quarter filled bottle?” wrote one.

    @beantownlouiee First it was the chips… & NOW THIS??? #beantownlouie #fyp ♬ Nocturne (Chopin) calm piano solo – もつ

    Have a tip we should know? [email protected]

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    Claire Goforth

    Claire Goforth is a contributing writer to The Mary Sue. Her work has appeared in the Guardian, Al Jazeera America, the Miami New Times, Folio Weekly, the Juvenile Justice Information Exchange, the Florida Times-Union, the Daily Dot, and Grace Ormonde Wedding Style. Find her online at bsky.app/profile/clairegoforth.bsky.social and x.com/claire_goforth.

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  • Shoppers in California plan to splurge this holiday season — out of fear

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    Shoppers in California plan to splurge this coming holiday season, but not because they are confident about the future. They are worried about inflation and figure it’s better to buy now than pay more later.

    At least that’s the takeaway from a new report from accounting firm KPMG that shows that consumers on the West Coast are more concerned about price rise and tariffs than those in any other region in the country.

    Nationally, shoppers intend to boost their holiday spending by 4.6% this year compared with last year, spending an average of $847 on shopping, according to the report.

    “When you think about why consumers are planning on spending more, it’s not that they have more wallet to spare, but it’s actually an expectation that prices are increasing,” Duleep Rodrigo, KPMG U.S. consumer and retail leader, said in an interview. “Eighty percent also of consumers are really being very conscious about inflation, and inflation that is impacted as a result of tariffs.”

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    Of the six different regions KPMG surveys, the Pacific region — which includes California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and Alaska — showed the highest concern for rising prices due to tariffs, with 72% citing inflation as a top concern.

    Nationally, 8 in 10 consumers believe tariffs will result in price increases. The least concerned were consumers in the Northeast, where only 6% said price increases would result in cutting back on holiday spending.

    “The consumer is spending like a poker player with a small chip stack,” Rodrigo said in the report. “They know they can’t play every hand but are willing to go ‘all in’ on a promising hand with a high emotional payoff. There’s also a psychological element where the consumer is managing a complex set of uncertainties.”

    KPMG found that consumer spending on essentials such as groceries, automotive expenses and personal care have increased in 2025, though much less than last year. In discretionary categories such as toys, furniture and hobby supplies, people expect to spend less.

    As budgets get tight, more people plan on spending on themselves this holiday season, with many purchasing big ticket holiday travel costing more than $1,000.

    The top gifts people want to receive this holiday season? Cold hard cash — followed by gift cards and apparel — indicating that more people want flexibility to spend on things they like, according to KPMG.

    Consumer price inflation for Los Angeles increased 3.3% in August, compared with the same time last year. National consumer inflation stood at 2.9% for the same period, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    From toys to apparel, retailers have experienced varying levels of impact due to President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on much of the world this year.

    Many retailers have been absorbing the costs of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration but cannot hold off indefinitely.

    Rodrigo said price increases on goods have already started happening, with retailers being more strategic.

    “For now, consumers that are in the top 20% are probably driving 80% of the economic activity that is sustaining and maintaining the current state of the economy,” Rodrigo said. “But there is a larger population that is really hurting, and that is really concerned with their dollars right now.”

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    Nilesh Christopher

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