WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. inflation remained elevated last month as gas prices jumped while the cost of rents cooled, painting a mixed picture of the expenses consumers are facing in a murky economy where growth appears steady but hiring slow.
Consumer prices increased 3% in September from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Friday.
The figures reflect a smaller increase than many economists had forecast, and will likely encourage the Federal Reserve to cut its key interest rate when it meets next week for the second time this year.
The Social Security Administration on Friday announced a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment for 2026, an increase that will automatically boost monthly payments for the program’s roughly 71 million beneficiaries starting early next year.
The increase represents an uptick from the last year’s cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, which set the 2025 increase at 2.5%. Inflation has edged higher this year. The Labor Department said Friday that the Consumer Price Index, a closely watched gauge of U.S. inflation, rose at an annual rate of 3% in September.
Next year’s COLA increase will boost the average Social Security payment by about $56 to an average monthly benefit of $2,071, starting in January, the Social Security Administration said. People who receive Supplemental Security Income, a program for low-income and disabled people, will see their first COLA increase with their Dec. 31, 2025 check, the agency said.
The annual COLA is designed to ensure that seniors, disabled Americans and other Social Security beneficiaries don’t lose purchasing power to inflation. Even so, a recent poll by the AARP, an advocacy group for older Americans, found that many seniors think the retirement program’s inflation adjustments are falling short and that they need an annual COLA of about 5% to keep up with their daily expenses.
“The cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security is one of the few inflation-adjusted programs for retirees,” Jenn Jones, AARP’s vice president of government affairs, told CBS News. “It is incredibly important to millions of Americans, and so although it may not feel like it’s quite enough, especially after the last few years, it’s critically helpful for keeping pace with rising costs.”
In a statement, Social Security Administration Commissioner Frank Bisignano said the cost-of-living adjustment “is one way we are working to make sure benefits reflect today’s economic realities and continue to provide a foundation of security.”
How SSA calculates its annual COLA
The Social Security Administration announces the COLA each fall based on a metric known as the “Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers,” or CPI-W, which tracks the average change in prices paid by workers for a basket of commonly bought goods and services.
The COLA is based on that inflation data from July through September.
Some advocates for older Americans say the CPI-W fails to accurately reflect seniors’ financial needs because it tracks younger workers, while retirees tend to face higher costs for health care, housing and some other items. Seniors on Medicare, the health insurance program for those over 65, spend 13.6% of their income on health-related expenses, more than double that of younger people, according to KFF.
Meanwhile, poverty is on the rise among America’s seniors, with the poverty rate among seniors rising to 15% last year, up from 14% in 2023, the highest among all age groups, according to recent Census data. The AARP said more older adults are struggling with the rising cost of housing and utility costs.
“Most Social Security beneficiaries aren’t working — you are on a fixed income, so any inflation increase you feel,” Jones said. “If the increases continue, it becomes difficult to figure out how you’re going to pay for all of your monthly expenses.”
How Medicare costs could impact benefits
Advocates for senior citizens say the COLA is likely to fall short, especially given forecasts for increases in Medicare’s premiums and deductibles for 2026. The Medicare premium is taken directly from seniors’ Social Security checks.
While Medicare hasn’t yet announced its 2026 premiums, its trustees report issued earlier this year projected that the standard monthly premium for Part B — which covers doctors visits and outpatient care — would likely rise to $206.50, or a 12% boost from its current rate. Deductibles are also projected to rise about 12% next year, the report said.
The result: Seniors could see most of their 2026 COLA eaten up by higher Medicare costs, the National Council on Aging said in a statement.
“COLA might reflect the inflation rate, but it is woefully insufficient for older Americans who already have high health care costs and are facing even greater increases in their Medicare costs in 2026,” Ramsey Alwin, CEO of the NCA, said in the statement.
Seniors are likely to be disappointed by the 2026 COLA, which represents the second-smallest bump since 2021. Many are at risk of falling behind, according to the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, an advocacy group.
The Consumer Price Index for September, also released on Friday, showed that medical and elderly care costs are surpassing the 3% annualized pace of inflation. Costs for caring for the elderly at home jumped 11.6% last month on an annual basis, while medical services rose 3.9%.
“Seniors on fixed incomes are rightly concerned that the Social Security COLA is not keeping pace with the true impact of inflation on their living costs, especially in areas where prices are soaring. Medical, housing and grocery costs are outstripping the COLA,” Max Richtman, the group’s CEO, said in a statement.
The S&P 500 is once again within reach of a record high and the latest inflation report could be just the thing to push it over the top.
The index secured new all-time highs following the CPI releases in September, June, and May — three of the last five inflation announcements — and bullish momentum has only grown since then.
Indeed, stocks climbed across the board on Thursday, recouping losses from earlier in the week and building on a series of strong earnings results.
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Economists expect the report to show September’s headline and core CPI at 3.1 percent year-over-year, roughly in line with the prior month, according to FactSet.
What’s unique about this release, of course, is that the government remains shut down.
Markets have largely marched higher in the absence of economic data, though the White House deemed this report important enough to call back furloughed workers to make sure it published.
(It was originally slated to publish on October 15.)
The release will have “more than the usual fawning over the numbers given the ongoing government shutdown and data vacuum it has created,” David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital wrote in a note Wednesday. “Expect extrapolations to be magnified beyond import, and for the cope to be at max levels.”
While Cervantes may be correct about reactions from pundits and market participants, the data is unlikely to change the outlook for the Federal Reserve.
Prediction markets and traditional indicators all effectively guarantee quarter-point rate cuts next week and in December.
Since the last central bank meeting in September, several policymakers have voiced a willingness to lower borrowing costs to support the labor market.
Even with another cut here or there, according to Fed President Susan Collins, “monetary policy would remain mildly restrictive, which is appropriate.”
“The labor market has demonstrated pretty significant downside risks,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in recent remarks.
With minimal chance the inflation data derails rate cuts, it seems unlikely markets will react any other way other than optimistically, even if the headline number shows a surprise.
WASHINGTON — Friday’s inflation report is likely to show that consumer prices worsened in September for the second straight month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs have lifted the cost of some groceries and other goods.
The report on the consumer price index is being issued more than a week late because of the government shutdown, now in its fourth week. The Trump administration recalled some Labor Department employees to produce the figures because they are used to set the annual cost-of-living adjustment for roughly 70 million Social Security recipients.
Friday’s inflation report will be the first comprehensive economic data to be released in more than three weeks and will attract intense interest from Wall Street and officials at the Federal Reserve. Fed officials are cutting their short-term interest rate to buoy the economy and hiring, but they are taking some risk doing so because inflation is still above their 2% target.
The issues of affordability and the cost of necessities are gaining in political importance. Concerns over the costs of rent and groceries have played a key role in the mayoral race in New York City. And Trump, who has acknowledged that the spike in grocery prices under President Joe Biden helped him win the 2024 election, has been considering importing Argentine beef to reduce record-high U.S. beef prices, angering U.S. cattle ranchers.
The cost of ground beef has jumped to $6.32 a pound, a record, in part because of tariffs on imports from countries such as Brazil, which faces a 50% duty. Years of drought that have reduced cattle herds have also raised prices.
Friday’s report is forecast to show that inflation rose 3.1% in September from a year earlier, according to a survey of economists by data provider FactSet. That would be up from 2.9% in August and the highest in 18 months. On a monthly basis, inflation is projected to be 0.4% in September, the same as in August.
Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core inflation in September was likely 3.1% for the third straight month. On a monthly basis, core prices likely rose 0.3%, economists project, also for the third straight month.
Such figures are unlikely to deter the Fed from cutting its key rate by another quarter-point when it meets next week, to about 3.9%. It would be the second cut this year and is driven by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s concerns that hiring is weakening and poses a threat to the economy.
Even as inflation has fallen sharply from its peak of 9.1% more than three years ago, it remains a major concern for consumers. About half of all Americans say the cost of groceries is a “major” source of stress, according to an August poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
And the Conference Board, a business research group, finds that consumers are still referencing prices and inflation in responses to its monthly survey on consumer confidence.
Still, inflation has not risen as much as many economists feared when Trump first announced a sweeping set of tariffs. Many importers built up inventories of goods before the duties took effect, while Trump reduced many import taxes, including as part of trade deals with China, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam.
And many economists, as well as some Fed officials, expect that the tariffs will create a one-time lift to prices that will fade by early next year. At the same time, inflation excluding the tariffs is cooling, they argue: Rental price increases, for example, are declining on average nationwide.
Yet Trump is imposing tariffs in an ongoing fashion that could raise prices in a more sustained fashion.
For example, the Trump administration is investigating whether to slap 100% tariffs on imports from Nicaragua over alleged human rights violations. The prospect of such steep duties is a major headache for Dan Rattigan, the co-founder of premium chocolate maker French Broad, based in Asheville, N.C.
“We’ve been shouldering some significant additional costs,” Rattigan said. The United States barely produces any cocoa, so his company imports it from Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, and Uganda. The imports from Nicaragua were duty-free because the country had a trade agreement with the United States, but now faces an 18% import tax.
Cocoa prices have more than doubled over the past two years because of poor weather and blights in West Africa, which produces more than 70% of the world’s cocoa. The tariffs are an additional hit on top of that. Rattigan is also paying more for almonds, hazelnuts, and chocolate-making equipment from Italy, which has also been hit with tariffs.
French Broad raised its prices slightly earlier this year and doesn’t have any plans to do so again. But after the winter holidays, “all bets are off … in what is a very unpredictable business climate,” Rattigan said.
Oil prices spiked Thursday after the U.S. announced massive new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry in an attempt to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and end Moscow’s brutal war on Ukraine.U.S. benchmark crude jumped 6%, to $62 per barrel midday Thursday and analysts say if the situation remains static, U.S. consumers will soon be paying more at the pump.Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said while it was difficult to predict with certainty because of the number of moving parts, consumers will likely see a bump in prices as early as next week, if not sooner.“We’ll probably start to see motorists be impacted by the sanctions at the pump in the next couple days and it might take five days for that to be fully passed along,” De Haan said, adding that the full impact also depends on whether the Russian or U.S. positions change.“Russia will feel pressure to come to the table in light of the new developments or President Trump may react when he sees oil prices rising to levels that become uncomfortable, so I don’t think this is going to be very long lasting,” De Haan said.Oil prices have been relatively low for the past few years and last week the cost for barrel of U.S. benchmark crude fell below $57, its lowest level since early 2021. The price for a barrel of U.S. benchmark crude did rise near $79 a barrel early this year, just before President Donald Trump took office, a price not necessarily considered outrageously elevated by most analysts.The broad, extended decline in oil prices pushed the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. last week under $3 for the first time since December of last year, according to GasBuddy.For much of 2025, inflation has been held mostly in check, partly due to cheaper prices at the pump. However, that could change quickly as higher energy costs have a downstream effect on prices for virtually all products and services across industries.“The impact to a lot of Americans is that products derived from crude, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are all likely to see price increases,” De Haan said.The main reason oil and gas have stabilized at lower levels this year is that the group of countries that are part of the OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries have continued to boost production. Earlier this month, OPEC+ leaders announced they would raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, the same amount announced for October. The group has been raising output slightly in a series of boosts all year after announcing cuts in 2023 and 2024.Russia is the leading non-OPEC member in the 22-country alliance. The group’s next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 2.The sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil follows calls from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well as bipartisan pressure on Trump to hit Russia with harder sanctions on its oil industry, the economic engine that has allowed Russia to continue to execute the grinding conflict even as it finds itself largely internationally isolated. The European Union on Thursday announced its own measures targeting Russian oil and gas.The price for Brent crude, the international standard, rose $3.57 on Thursday to $66.15 per barrel.
WASHINGTON —
Oil prices spiked Thursday after the U.S. announced massive new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry in an attempt to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and end Moscow’s brutal war on Ukraine.
U.S. benchmark crude jumped 6%, to $62 per barrel midday Thursday and analysts say if the situation remains static, U.S. consumers will soon be paying more at the pump.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said while it was difficult to predict with certainty because of the number of moving parts, consumers will likely see a bump in prices as early as next week, if not sooner.
“We’ll probably start to see motorists be impacted by the sanctions at the pump in the next couple days and it might take five days for that to be fully passed along,” De Haan said, adding that the full impact also depends on whether the Russian or U.S. positions change.
“Russia will feel pressure to come to the table in light of the new developments or President Trump may react when he sees oil prices rising to levels that become uncomfortable, so I don’t think this is going to be very long lasting,” De Haan said.
Oil prices have been relatively low for the past few years and last week the cost for barrel of U.S. benchmark crude fell below $57, its lowest level since early 2021. The price for a barrel of U.S. benchmark crude did rise near $79 a barrel early this year, just before President Donald Trump took office, a price not necessarily considered outrageously elevated by most analysts.
The broad, extended decline in oil prices pushed the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. last week under $3 for the first time since December of last year, according to GasBuddy.
For much of 2025, inflation has been held mostly in check, partly due to cheaper prices at the pump. However, that could change quickly as higher energy costs have a downstream effect on prices for virtually all products and services across industries.
“The impact to a lot of Americans is that products derived from crude, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are all likely to see price increases,” De Haan said.
The main reason oil and gas have stabilized at lower levels this year is that the group of countries that are part of the OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries have continued to boost production. Earlier this month, OPEC+ leaders announced they would raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, the same amount announced for October. The group has been raising output slightly in a series of boosts all year after announcing cuts in 2023 and 2024.
Russia is the leading non-OPEC member in the 22-country alliance. The group’s next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 2.
The sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil follows calls from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well as bipartisan pressure on Trump to hit Russia with harder sanctions on its oil industry, the economic engine that has allowed Russia to continue to execute the grinding conflict even as it finds itself largely internationally isolated. The European Union on Thursday announced its own measures targeting Russian oil and gas.
The price for Brent crude, the international standard, rose $3.57 on Thursday to $66.15 per barrel.
WASHINGTON — WASHINGTON (AP) — Oil prices spiked Thursday after the U.S. announced massive new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry in an attempt to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and end Moscow’s brutal war on Ukraine.
U.S. benchmark crude jumped 5.6% to $61.79 per barrel and analysts say if the situation remains static, U.S. consumers will soon be paying more at the pump.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said while it was difficult to predict with certainty because of the number of moving parts, consumers will likely see a bump in prices as early as next week, if not sooner.
“We’ll probably start to see motorists be impacted by the sanctions at the pump in the next couple days and it might take five days for that to be fully passed along,” De Haan said, adding that the full impact also depends on whether the Russian or U.S. positions change.
“Russia will feel pressure to come to the table in light of of the new developments or President Trump may react when he sees oil prices rising to levels that become uncomfortable, so I don’t think this is going to be very long lasting,” De Haan said.
Oil prices have been relatively low for the past few years and last week the cost for barrel of U.S. benchmark crude fell below $57, its lowest level since early 2021. The price for a barrel of U.S. benchmark crude did rise near $79 a barrel early this year, just before President Donald Trump took office, a price not necessarily considered outrageously elevated by most analysts.
The broad, extended decline in oil prices pushed the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. last week under $3 for the first time since December of last year, according to GasBuddy.
For much of 2025, inflation has been held mostly in check, partly due to cheaper prices at the pump. However, that could change quickly as higher energy costs have a downstream effect on prices for virtually all products and services across industries.
“The impact to a lot of Americans is that products derived from crude, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are all likely to see price increases,” De Haan said.
Russia is the leading non-OPEC member in the 22-country alliance. The group’s next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 2.
The sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil follows calls from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well as bipartisan pressure on Trump to hit Russia with harder sanctions on its oil industry, the economic engine that has allowed Russia to continue to execute the grinding conflict even as it finds itself largely internationally isolated. The European Union on Thursday announced its own measures targeting Russian oil and gas.
The price for Brent crude, the international standard, rose 5.4% on Thursday to $65.99 per barrel.
A delayed inflation report on Friday is expected to deliver sobering data about the direction of U.S. prices, with economists forecasting that the Consumer Price Index in September rose at its fastest pace in 16 months.
CPI last month is projected to have risen 3.1% on an annual basis, which would be the highest since the inflation gauge hit 3.3% in May of 2024, according to economists polled by FactSet. The CPI measures price changes in a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the September CPI report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, or nine days later than it had originally been scheduled to issue the report before the U.S. government shutdown.
Most federal economic data releases have been suspended during the stalemate. The Department of Labor is making an exception for the September CPI data because the inflation rate is needed to determine the Social Security Administration’s annual cost-of-living adjustment for beneficiaries, which is also scheduled to be announced on Friday.
Inflation has crept higher this year, edging farther away from the Federal Reserve’s annual 2% target, partly due to the Trump administration’s wide-ranging tariffs, according to economists. U.S. companies that import goods from other nations are on the hook for paying the tariffs, and they are passing on as much as 55% of those import taxes to consumers in the form of higher prices, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.
“The forthcoming September CPI data will confirm a renewed acceleration in inflation, with price momentum evident across both goods and services,” EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco predicted Thursday a research note. “The tariff impact is increasingly visible, though pass-through remains gradual and uneven.”
Prices today are rising far more slowly than during their peak growth in June of 2022, when the CPI hit a 40-year high of 9.1% and spurred the Federal Reserve to ratchet up interest rates in a bid to quash inflation. When borrowing becomes more expensive, consumers and businesses tend to cut back on spending, which helps temper inflation.
But the recent uptick in inflation is souring some Americans on the economy, with 59% of those polled by CBS News earlier this month saying they feel the economy is getting worse. About two-thirds said they had noticed prices going up in recent weeks.
How will inflation impact the Social Security COLA?
The Social Security Administration on Friday is also expected to release its annual cost-of-living adjustment, basing its calculation on the inflation rate from July through September.
That yearly financial bump, which ensures that 75 million Social Security recipients don’t lose purchasing power as prices rise, is expected to come in at around 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.5% increase beneficiaries received in 2025, according to the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group.
A 2.7% boost in benefits would lift the average monthly Social Security payment for retired workers by $54, from $2,008 to $2,062. Yet some advocates for senior citizens are concerned that retirees could face a financial pinch if prices continue to climb beyond their 2026 Social Security adjustment.
What’s the inflation outlook?
Despite the recent rise in consumer prices, the Federal Reserve and most private economists expect inflation to ease next year. In September, the Fed forecast that the Personal Consumption Expenditures — a measure of consumer spending and the central bank’s preferred barometer of inflation — would show prices rising at a 3% annual rate in 2025, but then drop to 2.6% next year.
The impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation has been more muted than what many economists were forecasting earlier this year, Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in an email. Companies have helped blunt the impact by expanding their inventories before the tariffs took effect, as well as absorbing some of the costs in the form of lower profits, she said.
But there’s a risk those strategies might not work for long, she added.
“As inventories deplete, trade routes narrow and margins continue to shrink, firms may be forced to pass on higher costs to consumers,” she wrote. “As such, upside risks remain. If pricing pressures spill over into services, it could signal a broader and more persistent inflationary trend.”
Turkeys aren’t known for flying but their prices are soaring ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
A September outlook report from the United States Agriculture Department estimates that wholesale prices for frozen turkeys will be $1.32 per pound this year, a 40% increase from 2024’s average of $0.94 per pound.
The wholesale price is what retailers pay to buy items in bulk. Retailers then decide how much they want to charge consumers.
The reason the birds — traditionally the centerpiece at the Thanksgiving table — are getting more expensive comes down to supply. The number of available turkeys has shrunk in recent years amid slightly weakened demand and avian flu outbreaks, according to USDA data.
More than 3 million turkeys have been impacted by bird flu outbreaks this year, including over half a million this month alone, USDA data shows.
That translates to less turkeys: USDA forecasts that farmers raised around 195 million turkeys in 2025 compared with 200 million in 2024, a 3% decrease. To be sure, the number of turkeys in supply has been sliding over the last decade. In 2016, farmers raised around 245 million turkeys, roughly 50 million more than today’s supply.
Deals abound
Amid the rise in wholesale turkey prices, several companies are floating deals in an attempt to win over budget-conscious customers.
Walmart announced Tuesday that it is offering Butterball turkeys for $0.97 per pound this year. The retailer also said its 10-person meal deal will cost under $4 per person. Grocery chain Aldi has offered a similar deal, at $40 for 10 people.
Retailers typically use turkeys as a loss leader,” David Ortega, a professor and food economist at Michigan State University, told CBS News. “That is they price them very competitively, sometimes even below cost, to draw shoppers into stores ahead of Thanksgiving.”
Both deals represent a decrease in the average cost for a Thanksgiving meal from 2024, which was $58 for 10 people, according to a report from the American Farm Bureau Federation. Frozen turkeys that year accounted for a large share of Americans’ holiday grocery bill, at an average retail cost of $25 for a 16-pound bird.
Despite the surge in wholesale turkey prices in 2025, Bernt Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation doesn’t expect consumer prices to increase much.
“We see that uptick right now in the wholesale price by about 40%, so we’ll definitely see some price increases there, but I don’t think they’re going to go a whole lot higher above where they are at,” he said on a Farm Bureau podcast.
“Higher wholesale prices for turkeys are likely to translate into somewhat higher prices at the grocery store, but the increase consumers see will probably be smaller than what’s happening upstream,” Ortega explained.
In other welcome news for shoppers, CBS News’ price tracker shows that prices for Thanksgiving dinner ingredients like butter, milk and potatoes haven’t budged much compared with prices the same time last year.
Gasoline prices continue to fall year-over-year due mainly to the removal of the consumer carbon price, though prices at the pumps were up modestly on a monthly basis. With gas prices falling less year-over-year in September than in August, StatCan said that put some fuel in the headline inflation reading.
Food, rent, and travel costs rise again
Consumers are meanwhile facing stubborn pressure at the grocery store. Fresh vegetable prices were up 1.9% annually in September after a decline in August, and sugar and confectionary costs also accelerated to an increase of 9.2% compared to 5.8% the previous month. StatCan noted that annual price hikes at the grocery store have largely trended higher since a recent low in April 2024. Short supplies of beef and coffee are persistent factors fuelling higher prices, the agency said.
Travel tours also saw a rare month-over-month price gain in September as the agency pointed to higher costs for hotels tied to major events in Europe and some parts of the United States.
National rent prices accelerated to 4.8% year over year in September, up from 4.5% in August. Renters have seen price hikes generally decelerate in the past year with some occasional monthly volatility.
Taking some steam out of last month’s inflation figures were smaller annual increases in clothing and footwear prices.
Inflation readings add uncertainty to BoC decision
The September inflation report will be the Bank of Canada’s last look at price data before the central bank’s next interest rate decision on Oct. 29. The central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2.5% at its last decision in September. The central bank’s preferred measures of core inflation showed some stubbornness in September, holding above the 3% mark.
The Bank of Canada looks at these figures in an attempt to strip out volatile influences on the headline inflation figures, but monetary policymakers have recently cast some doubt on the reliability of these metrics.
CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said in a note to clients Tuesday morning that, looking at a broader array of core inflation measures, September’s underlying price pressures seemed generally in line with August’s readings. Grantham argued that means there was less inflationary pressure to worry about than the headline figure might suggest, setting the Bank of Canada up for a quarter-point cut at its decision next week.
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Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients that the latest inflation release, paired with the stronger than expected jobs report for September, should tamp down rate cut expectations for the end of the month. But he said Capital Economics is “still leaning toward another rate cut” after Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem’s comments citing concern about a soft jobs market last week.
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The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point when policymakers meet next week, but concerns are mounting over the lack of reliable employment figures.
Since the start of the federal government shutdown three weeks ago, the central bank has been cut off from vital economic data that the Fed typically relies on to guide its policy decisions. Analysts have compared the situation to a pilot attempting to land a plane blind.
Financial markets are all but certain that the Fed’s Board of Governors will lower its benchmark rate to the 3.75%–4% range during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for Oct. 28-29.
Fed Gov. Stephen Miran, recently appointed to the board by President Donald Trump, has been advocating for a larger half-point cut, echoing the president’s calls for more aggressive action.
But Fed Chair Jerome Powell so far has taken a more moderate approach, referring to reductions as “risk management” measures.
Looking ahead, opinions are divided on what the central bank will do come December.
A recent poll of 117 economists conducted by Reuters found that fewer than three-quarters expect another cut before the end of the year.
Fed faces jobs data blackout
The Federal Reserve has a dual congressional mandate to promote maximum employment and keep inflation as close to its 2% target as possible.
But since the nonessential parts of the federal government ceased operations on Oct. 1, official jobs numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics have not been released since early September, leaving the Fed with a murky view of economic risks.
The latest available data indicates that the labor market has softened over the summer, with just 22,000 jobs added in August and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.3% from 4.2% the previous month.
Figures coming out of the private sector suggest that the job market remains mostly in a holding pattern, with no major fluctuations in either layoffs or hiring.
New inflation report on the way
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the consumer price index for September on Thursday, after some furloughed staffers were ordered back to work to compile the latest inflation data.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the report to show that consumer inflation inched up to 3.1% in September from 2.9% in August, injecting uncertainty into the prospect of an additional Fed rate cut at the end of 2025.
Typically, if the Fed observes a sharp slowdown in hiring, it would be inclined to cut the federal funds rate, while rising inflation would make it more likely to delay another rate reduction.
What it means for the housing market
It’s important to remember that theFed does not directly set mortgage rates, but rather influences them in a more roundabout way by setting the federal funds rate.
However, the information vacuum created by the government shutdown that’s clouding the Fed’s decision-making process could negatively influence the housing market in different ways.
Jobs data informs Fed policy decisions, which anchor the 10-year Treasury and, by extension, mortgage rates. Without that benchmark, it is harder to predict exactly what the central bank will do during its upcoming meetings.
Additionally, not knowing the true state of the labor market compounds the uncertainty already weighing on would-be homebuyers and sapping demand.
But that fourth-quarter boost may prove underwhelming this year, at least if consumers’ predictions about their own spending habits are to be trusted. In a new survey of more than 1,000 American adults—conducted in late September by the market research firm HarrisX, and including questions developed by Inc.—40 percent of respondents said they anticipate their holiday gift budget will be smaller than it was last year. That’s compared to 21 percent who expect it to grow, and another 32 percent who expect it to stay more or less the same.
That hesitancy is more pronounced among women than men—with 44 percent of women anticipating less spending versus 35 percent of men—and grows steeper with age, rising from 27 percent in Gen Z all the way up to 51 percent in the Silent Generation, and increasing with each successive age cohort.
“Men seem to be having the high time of it, and women seem to be really concerned about the economy,” said Mark Penn, chairman and CEO of Stagwell, the parent company behind HarrisX. “It is really kind of a tale of two cities.”
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That may partially be a reflection of partisan differences between men and women, he added, as Democrats tend to be more pessimistic about the economy than Republicans, and women are leaning increasingly liberal.
The upshot for retailers prepping for the holiday gift season? Put the men’s items closer to the front of the stores, Penn suggests, and move the women’s clothing a bit further back.
The HarrisX polling found that those gendered dynamics extend beyond just Christmas gifts, too. When asked whether their personal financial situation had gotten better or worse over the last six months, 42 percent of men said things have gotten better (versus 30 percent saying worse), whereas among women, the split was 20 percent better and 38 percent worse.
Overall, though, there’s a level of ambivalence in the polling data. When asked about how their overall household spending has changed in the past six months, 29 percent of respondents said it has increased and 29 percent said it has decreased. The remaining 42 percent reported that their habits have pretty much stayed the same.
“This poll reflects neither euphoria nor dejection,” Penn said. “It’s actually sort of in the middle of things. Americans remain somewhat pessimistic about the economy, but they’ve been that way for a very long time.”
For those who said they’ve spent more, the leading reason why was a “desire to enjoy life/spend more in the present” (23 percent)—while more than half of those who reported decreasing their spending blamed it on inflation.
Yet in almost every specific bucket of spending that the poll asked respondents about—restaurants, clothes, consumer tech, entertainment and travel—more respondents said their household had cut back on spending over the last six months than the number who reported having increased it. Only for groceries did more respondents raise their budgets (37 percent) rather than shrink them (20 percent)–which makes sense given that the steepest cuts of all were to dining out, which 47 percent of respondents said they’ve reduced.
Indeed, 55 percent of survey respondents said they’ve swapped out some of their usual product purchases for cheaper alternatives over the last six months—and 31 percent anticipate reducing household spending over the next six months, versus 20 percent expecting to increase it.
Travel is the vertical for which the largest chunk of respondents, 48 percent, said they plan to cut spending going forward, while groceries was again the only category for which more people are planning to increase spending over the next six months (30 percent) than decrease it (22 percent).
Penn cautioned that respondents’ predictions about their future spending behavior may be a better indicator of how they feel about the current economy, rather than what they’ll actually do in the future.
“They don’t really know how they’re going to feel six months from now,” he says. “Six months in the American economy is a long time. In six months, we could be in a recession or we could be doing 3 percent growth and [have] lower interest rates.”
The U.S. immigration crackdown will cause net job losses in the millions and will lower the annual rate of economic growth by almost one-third over the next decade, a new study estimates.
The Trump administration’s policies aimed at legal and illegal immigration would reduce the projected number of workers by 6.8 million by 2028 and 15.7 million by 2035, the National Foundation for American Policy’s study released Friday found. People entering the workforce won’t fully make up for the job losses, leading to a net reduction in the labor force by a projected 4 million workers by 2028 and 11 million in 2035.
“With the U.S.-born population aging and growing at a slower rate, immigrants have become an essential part of American labor force growth,” the think tank, which focuses on trade and immigration, said.
In fact, immigrant workers were responsible for 84.7% of the labor force growth in America between 2019 and 2024, according to the report.
The study takes into account many of Trump’s far-reaching immigration policies for those eligible to work in the country, including reducing and suspending refugee admissions, a travel ban on 19 countries, ending Temporary Protected Status, and prohibiting international students from working on Optional Practical Training and STEM OPT after completing their coursework. The analysis does not account for a new policy that requires U.S. companies to shell out $100,000 in one-time fees for new H-1B visas.
Labor reduction
Trump’s immigration crackdown is already having an impact on the labor force.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey shows a decline of 1.1 million foreign-born workers since the start of the Trump administration in January through August, according to the report.
And of the 6.8 million fewer projected workers in the U.S. labor force by 2028, 2.8 million would be due to changes in legal immigration policies, while 4 million would result from policies on illegal immigration, the study said
At the same time, it doesn’t look as though U.S.-born workers are entering the workforce en masse as foreign-born workers exit, the report said. Instead, the labor force participation rate for U.S.-born workers aged 16 and older has ticked lower to 61.6% in August from 61.7% last year, according to the report.
Labor economist and senior fellow at NFAP Mark Regets, said in the report it’s “wrong” to assume a decline in immigration helps U.S. workers when job growth slows.
“Immigrants both create demand for the goods and services produced by U.S.-born workers and work alongside them in ways that increase productivity for both groups,” Regrets said. “While it is just one factor, we shouldn’t be surprised that opportunities for U.S.-born workers are falling at the same time an estimated one million fewer immigrants may be in the labor force.”
But the White House says there’s a large pool of available U.S.-born workers.
“Over one in ten young adults in America are neither employed, in higher education, nor pursuing some sort of vocational training.” White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Fortune in a statement, referencing a July 2024 CNBC article. “There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force, and President Trump’s agenda to create jobs for American workers represents this Administration’s commitment to capitalizing on that untapped potential while delivering on our mandate to enforce our immigration laws.”
Economic fallout
Previous reports have warned Trumps’ immigration policies also threaten negative economic consequences.
In September, the Congressional Budget Office projected 290,000 immigrants will be removed from the country between 2026 and 2029, which may create a labor shortage and drive up inflation.
And according to the NFAP study, Trump’s immigration policies will lower the projected average annual economic growth rate to 1.3% from 1.8% between fiscal year 2025 to fiscal year 2035.
There are also ramifications for the agriculture industry and food production. The Labor Department admitted earlier this month in a filing in the Federal Register that Trump’s immigration crackdown risked a “labor shortage exacerbated by the near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens.”
That’s not the only sector feeling the talent squeeze.
The $100,000 one-time fee for workers applying for new H-1B visas is expected to disrupt companies including Amazon, Microsoft and Meta, since they heavily recruit workers under this status.
And the policies are projected to have far-ranging effects on most areas of business, including a potential loss of hundreds of thousands of immigrant workers in sectors like information and educational and health services.
In addition, individuals affected by Trump’s travel ban on 19 different countries represent a significant part of the economy, the American Immigration Council, a nonprofit research organization and advocacy group, has estimated.
Households led by the recent arrivals from the countries earned $3.2 billion in household income, paid $715.6 million in federal, state and local taxes and held $2.5 billion in spending power, according to AIC.
“These nationals made important contributions in U.S. industries that are facing labor shortages and rely on foreign-born workers,” like hospitality, construction, retail trade and manufacturing, the report said.
But the White House said Trump will continue “growing our economy, creating opportunity for American workers, and ensuring all sectors have the workforce they need to be successful.”
Nan Wu, research director at AIC told Fortune the recent NFAP study may not even fully capture the broader impact of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement efforts.
“Given the unprecedented scale of these actions, it’s difficult to quantify the chilling effect they may have on immigrants who might otherwise choose to move to or remain in the United States,” Wu said. “For instance, international students—who are a critical source of high-skilled talent—may increasingly opt to pursue education or career opportunities in other countries. This shift could significantly disrupt the U.S. talent pipeline, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on STEM expertise and innovation.”
ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE — ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE (AP) — President Donald Trump said Sunday that the United States could purchase Argentinian beef in an attempt to bring down prices for American consumers.
“We would buy some beef from Argentina,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One during a flight from Florida to Washington. “If we do that, that will bring our beef prices down.”
Trump promised earlier this week to address the issue as part of his efforts to keep inflation in check.
U.S. beef prices have been stubbornly high for a variety of reasons, including drought and reduced imports from Mexico due to a flesh-eating pest in cattle herds there.
Trump has been working to help Argentina bolster its collapsing currency with a $20 billion credit swap line and additional financing from sovereign funds and the private sector ahead of midterm elections for his close ally, President Javier Milei.
ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE — ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE (AP) — President Donald Trump said Sunday that the United States could purchase Argentinian beef in an attempt to bring down prices for American consumers.
“We would buy some beef from Argentina,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One during a flight from Florida to Washington. “If we do that, that will bring our beef prices down.”
Trump promised earlier this week to address the issue as part of his efforts to keep inflation in check.
U.S. beef prices have been stubbornly high for a variety of reasons, including drought and reduced imports from Mexico due to a flesh-eating pest in cattle herds there.
Trump has been working to help Argentina bolster its collapsing currency with a $20 billion credit swap line and additional financing from sovereign funds and the private sector ahead of midterm elections for his close ally, President Javier Milei.
ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE (AP) — President Donald Trump said Sunday that the United States could purchase Argentinian beef in an attempt to bring down prices for American consumers.
“We would buy some beef from Argentina,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One during a flight from Florida to Washington. “If we do that, that will bring our beef prices down.”
Trump promised earlier this week to address the issue as part of his efforts to keep inflation in check.
U.S. beef prices have been stubbornly high for a variety of reasons, including drought and reduced imports from Mexico due to a flesh-eating pest in cattle herds there.
Trump has been working to help Argentina bolster its collapsing currency with a $20 billion credit swap line and additional financing from sovereign funds and the private sector ahead of midterm elections for his close ally, President Javier Milei.
Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Sunday evening as Wall Street looks ahead to a big week for the U.S.-China trade war, corporate earnings, and economic data.
“I’m not looking to destroy China,” he said, contrasting with his remarks in August when he said he holds “incredible cards” that “would destroy China,” if he chose to use them.
Earlier this month, he announced an additional 100% tariff and software restrictions on China, which has a stranglehold on the world’s supply of rare earths and imposed tighter export controls that threaten a wide range of industries.
Last week, stocks rebounded sharply after Trump said “Don’t worry about China” and vowed that everything will be fine. A similar pattern is playing out again this weekend.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones industrial average rose 54 points, or 0.12%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.15%, and Nasdaq futures added 0.20%.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was flat at 4.011%. The U.S. dollar was down 0.06% against the euro and up 0.14% against the yen.
Gold climbed 1% to $4,253.10 per ounce. U.S. oil futures were steady at $57.55 a barrel, and Brent crude was virtually unchanged at $61.27.
Investors will get another update on the trade war as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week to continue talks ahead of a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at the end of this month on the sidelines of a regional economic summit in South Korea.
Meanwhile, the third-quarter earnings season ramps up after big banks reported blowout results, with top tech companies on tap.
And despite the government shutdown, the consumer price index report for September will be issued by the Labor Department on Friday after key personnel were recalled. The report will allow for Social Security to make cost of living adjustments.
Economists expect a 0.4% monthly uptick, matching August’s pace, and a 3.1% annual increase, accelerating from 2.9% in August.
LAS VEGAS — Aaron Mahan is a lifelong Republican who twice voted for Donald Trump.
He had high hopes putting a businessman in the White House and, although he found the president’s monster ego grating, Mahan voted for his reelection. Mostly, he said, out of party loyalty.
By 2024, however, he’d had enough.
“I just saw more of the bad qualities, more of the ego,” said Mahan, who’s worked for decades as a food server on and off the Las Vegas Strip. “And I felt like he was at least partially running to stay out of jail.”
He’s no Trump hater, Mahan said. “I don’t think he’s evil.” Rather, the 52-year-old calls himself “a Trump realist,” seeing the good and the bad.
Here’s Mahan’s reality: A big drop in pay. Depletion of his emergency savings. Stress every time he pulls into a gas station or visits the supermarket.
Mahan used to blithely toss things in his grocery cart. “Now,” he said, “you have to look at prices, because everything is more expensive.”
In short, he’s living through the worst combination of inflation and economic malaise he’s experienced since he began waiting tables after finishing high school.
Views of the 47th president, from the ground up
Las Vegas lives on tourism, the industry irrigated by rivers of disposable income. The decline of both has resulted in a painful downturn that hurts all the more after the pent-up demand and go-go years following the crippling COVID-19 shutdown.
Over the last 12 months, the number of visitors has dropped significantly and those who do come to Las Vegas are spending less. Passenger arrivals at Harry Reid International Airport, a short hop from the Strip, have declined and room nights, a measure of hotel occupancy, have also fallen.
Mahan, who works at the Virgin resort casino just off the Strip, blames the slowdown in large part on Trump’s failure to tame inflation, his tariffs and pugnacious immigration and foreign policies that have antagonized people — and prospective visitors — around the world.
“His general attitude is, ‘I’m going to do what I’m going to do, and you’re going to like it or leave it.’ And they’re leaving it,” Mahan said. “The Canadians aren’t coming. The Mexicans aren’t coming. The Europeans aren’t coming in the way they did. But also the people from Southern California aren’t coming the way they did either.”
Mahan has a way of describing the buckling blow to Las Vegas’ economy. He calls it “the Trump slump.”
::
Mahan was an Air Force brat who lived throughout the United States and, for a time, in England before his father retired from the military and started looking for a place to settle.
Mahan’s mother grew up in Sacramento and liked the mountains that ring Las Vegas. They reminded her of the Sierra Nevada. Mahan’s father had worked intermittently as a bartender. It was a skill of great utility in Nevada’s expansive hospitality industry.
So the desert metropolis it was.
Mahan was 15 when his family landed. After high school, he attended college for a time and started working in the coffee shop at the Barbary Coast hotel and casino. He then moved on to the upscale Gourmet Room. The money was good; Mahan had found his career.
From there he moved to Circus Circus and then, in 2005, the Hard Rock hotel and casino, where he’s been ever since. (In 2018, Virgin Hotels purchased the Hard Rock.)
Mahan, who’s single with no kids, learned to roll with the vicissitudes of the hospitality business. “As a food server, there’s always going to be slowdowns and takeoffs,” he said over lunch at a dim sum restaurant in a Las Vegas strip mall.
Mahan socked money away during the summer months and hunkered down in the slow times, before things started picking up around the New Year. He weathered the Great Recession, from 2007 to 2009, when Nevada led the nation in foreclosures, bankruptcies soared and tumbleweeds blew through Las Vegas’ many overbuilt, financially underwater subdivisions.
This economy feels worse.
Over the last 12 months, Las Vegas has drawn fewer visitors and those who have come are spending less.
(David Becker / For The Times)
With tourism off, the hotel where Mahan works changed from a full-service coffee shop to a limited-hour buffet. So he’s no longer waiting tables. Instead, he mans a to-go window, making drinks and handing food to guests, which brings him a lot less in tips. He estimates his income has fallen $2,000 a month.
But it’s not just that his paychecks have grown considerably skinnier. They don’t go nearly as far.
An admitted soda addict, he used to guzzle Dr Pepper. “You’d get three bottles for four bucks,” Mahan said. “Now they’re $3 each.”
He’s cut back as a result.
Worse, his air conditioner broke last month and the $14,000 that Mahan spent replacing it — along with a costly filter he needs for allergies — pretty much wiped out his emergency fund.
It feels as though Mahan is just barely getting by and he’s not at all optimistic things will improve anytime soon.
“I’m looking forward,” he said, to the day Trump leaves office.
::
Mahan considers himself fairly apolitical. He’d rather knock a tennis ball around than debate the latest goings-on in Washington.
He’s not counting on much. “I’m never convinced of anything,” Mahan said. “Until I see it.”
Something else is poking around the back of his mind.
Mahan is a shop steward with the Culinary Union, the powerhouse labor organization that’s helped make Las Vegas one of the few places in the country where a waiter, such as Mahan, can earn enough to buy a home in an upscale suburb like nearby Henderson. (He points out that he made the purchase in 2012 and probably couldn’t afford it in today’s economy.)
Mahan worries that once Trump is done targeting immigrants, federal workers and Democratic-run cities, he’ll come after organized labor, undermining one of the foundational building blocks that helped him climb into the middle class.
“He is a businessman and most businesspeople don’t like dealing with unions,” Mahan said.
There are a few bright spots in Las Vegas’ economic picture. Convention bookings are up slightly for the year, and look to be strengthening. Gaming revenues have increased year-over-year. The workforce is still growing.
“This community’s streets are not littered with people that have been laid off,” said Jeremy Aguero, a principal analyst with Applied Analysis, a firm that provides economic and fiscal policy counsel in Las Vegas.
“The layoff trends, unemployment insurance, they’ve edged up,” Aguero said. “But they’re certainly not wildly elevated in comparison to other periods of instability.”
That, however, offers small solace for Mahan as he makes drinks, hands over takeout food and carefully watches his wallet.
If he knew then what he knows now, what would the Aaron of 2016 — the one so full of hope for a Trump presidency — say to the Aaron of today?
Mahan paused, his chopsticks hovering over a custard dumpling.
As economic uncertainty deepens the rush for gold continues, with the price of the precious metal this week topping $4,300 for the first time.
The going price for New York spot closed at a record $4,326 per troy ounce on Thursday. Futures also traded as high at more than $4,344 per troy ounce Thursday, before falling below the $4,300 mark Friday morning. Still, gold is up 6.7% over the last week, marking one of its best weeks to date.
Gold sales can rise sharply when anxious investors seek a “safe haven” for their money. For the U.S., the latest gains arrive amid the now weekslong government shutdown and ongoing trade wars abroad — with President Trump most recently threatening to place much higher tariffs on China, before appearing to walk back those potential new levies as unsustainable.
Still, his barrage of other import taxes has already strained economies worldwide. Meanwhile, the prospect of lower interest rates is also making gold a more attractive investment.
Gold futures are up nearly 60% since the start of 2025 — trading at about $4,268 per troy ounce, the standard for measuring precious metals, as of around 11:45 a.m. Friday. That’s up from around $2,670 at the beginning of January.
Silver has seen an even bigger percentage jump year to date. Silver futures are up about 70%, trading at over $50 per troy ounce Friday morning.
A lot of it boils down to uncertainty. Interest in buying metals like gold typically spikes when investors become anxious.
Much of this year’s economic turmoil has spanned from Trump’s trade wars. Since the start of 2025, steep new tariffs the president has imposed on goods coming into the U.S. from around the world have strained businesses and consumers alike — pushing costs higher and helping to weaken the job market.
As a result, hiring has plunged while inflation has inched back up. And more and more consumers are expressing pessimism about the road ahead.
The U.S. government shutdown adds to those anxieties. Key economic data has been delayed — and scores of federal employees are already feeling the effects of furloughs and working without pay as long as the shutdown lasts, which has no immediate end in sight. The Trump administration also moved to use the shutdown to conduct mass firings, although a judge temporarily blocked such action.
Separately, analysts have pointed to continued weakness of the U.S. dollar and renewed rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Last month, the Fed cut its key interest rate by a quarter-point — and projected it would do so twice more this year.
Investments in gold have also been driven by other factors over time. Over recent years, there’s been strong gold demand from central banks around the world — particularly amid heightened geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
And on Wall Street this week, several regional banks saw sharp losses amid scrunity over quality of loans, although recovery seemed to be steadying the market on Friday. Meanwhile, investors appeared to be distancing themselves from riskier assets like cryptocurrency — with bitcoin, for example, down 2.67%.
Gold jewelry sticker shock
Many jewelry merchants and dealers have increasingly reported surges in customers looking to check the value of gold they own — sometimes opting to melt or sell family heirlooms to cash in on the precious metal’s rising price.
At the same time, those in the market for gold jewelry may be feeling “sticker shock” if they can’t afford certain products anymore — particularly if it’s something impacted by both rising material costs and tariffs.
Larger retailers like Pandora and Signet have acknowledged these headwinds in recent earnings calls.
Advocates of investing in gold call it a safe haven — arguing that the commodity can serve to diversify and balance your investment portfolio, as well as mitigate possible risks down the road as a hedge against rising inflation. Some also take comfort in buying something tangible that has the potential to increase in value over time.
Of late, however, stock prices have steamed to record highs this year, economic growth has accelerated in recent months and inflation this year has remained relatively subdued, prompting questions about what’s fueling investors’ renewed appetite for gold.
“$4,000 an ounce seemed far-fetched at the start of the year as gold entered 2025 near $2,800 an ounce. But after a ~50% rally, here we are,” eToro U.S. investment analyst Bret Kenwell recently told CBS News.
Investments in gold have also been driven by other factors. Analysts point to strong gold demand from central banks around the world amid heightened geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Still, experts caution against putting all your eggs in one basket. And not everyone agrees gold is a good investment.
Not always a reliable inflation hedge
Critics say gold isn’t always the inflation hedge many claim — and that there are more efficient ways to protect against potential loss of capital, such as derivative-based investments.
The Commodity Futures Trade Commission has also previously warned people to be wary of investing in gold. Precious metals can be highly volatile, and prices rise as demand goes up — meaning “when economic anxiety or instability is high, the people who typically profit from precious metals are the sellers,” the commission noted.
The frenzy for gold has also resulted in health and environmental consequences — with officials pointing to rising demand for mercury, a toxic metal that is key in illegal gold mining worldwide.
Mercury is widely used to separate gold during artisanal or small-scale mining. But it pollutes water, accumulates in fish, makes its way into food and builds up in people’s bodies, leading to neurological and developmental harm. Even small-scale exposure can carry serious risks — putting in danger workers who rely on the industry, as well as residents in affected areas more broadly.
The Associated Press has reported about the effects of mercury poisoning tied to gold mining in countries like Senegal, Mexico and Peru, among other parts of the world.
CAIRO — CAIRO (AP) — Egypt increased fuel prices by around 12% on Friday, a step likely to drive up the costs of goods and services across the country. This is the second fuel price hike this year.
In a statement posted on Facebook, the Egyptian government gave no reason for the move but said fuel prices will remain fixed in the local market with no further increases for at least one year.
Egyptians have been grappling with soaring inflation as they navigate rising daily costs that reached another high last year. They included an increase in fuel prices, a hike in subway fares and a slide in the Egyptian pound against foreign currencies.
According to the latest data from the Central Bank of Egypt posted Oct. 8, Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation reached 11.7% in September— down from 12% in August and 13.9% in July.
Fuel prices last increased in April, rising between 11% and 14% on various fuel products.
At the time of a previous price hike in late 2024, the government said that raising prices was meant to “reduce the gap between the selling prices of petroleum products and their high production and import costs.”
According to the new prices taking effect on Friday, the cost of a liter of diesel — which is heavily relied on for public transport — increased from 15.50 pounds ($0.33) to 17.50 pounds ($0.37), while the price of the 92-octane gasoline rose to 19.25 pounds ($0.40) from 17.25 pounds ($0.36) and the 95-octane gasoline increased from 19 pounds ($0.40) to 21 pounds ($0.44).
The petroleum sector will continue running refineries at full capacity and provide incentives to its partners to boost production, reduce import expenses, and stabilize costs — with the aim of narrowing the gap between production costs and selling prices, said the government on Friday.
Earlier this year, the government raised the minimum monthly wage for both public and private sector workers to 7,000 pounds ($138), up from 6,000 pounds ($118.58).
Egypt previously reached a deal with the IMF to more than double the size of its bailout to $8 billion. The price hikes have been deemed necessary to meet conditions set by the International Monetary Fund for further assistance to the country.
In March, the IMF said it completed its fourth review of Egypt’s economic reform program approving a $1.2 billion disbursement for the North African country.
