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https://www.barrons.com/articles/constellation-stock-price-earnings-bud-light-a7957686
Constellation Brands‘ earnings beat Wall Street’s expectations as the company reported strong beer sales for the latest quarter on Friday. The stock fell anyway.
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Some people who sought jobs at billionaire Bill Gates’s private office described going through an extensive screening process that included being questioned by a security firm about their sexual histories, past drug use and other parts of their private lives that might indicate they were vulnerable to blackmail.
Copyright ©2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
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Nike Inc. on Thursday reported fourth-quarter profit that came up short of Wall Street’s expectations, with price cuts weighing on results amid weaker demand for sneakers and clothing.
Nike
NKE,
reported fourth-quarter net income of $1.03 billion, or 66 cents a share, down from $1.44 billion, or 90 cents a share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue rose 5% to $12.83 billion, compared with $12.23 billion in the prior-year quarter.
Analysts polled by FactSet expected Nike to report adjusted earnings of 68 cents a share, on $12.58 billion in sales.
Nike said gross margins slipped 140 basis points to 43.6%, dragged by “higher product input costs and elevated freight and logistics costs, higher markdowns and continued unfavorable changes in net foreign currency exchange rates.”
Shares were up 0.3% after hours on Thursday.
Heading into the earnings, Wall Street had questions about Nike’s stockpiles of unsold shoes and clothing, and what it might take to clear them, as consumers still find themselves stretching their budgets to buy more essential goods like groceries.
Nike’s broader plans to sell more shoes and clothes directly — either through its own e-commerce platform or its own physical stores. But recent plans to start selling again in Macy’s Inc.
M,
and Designer Brands Inc.’s
DBI,
DSW shoe stores have raised questions over whether the athletic-gear maker is rethinking that strategy. Analysts were also focused on demand in China, whose re-opening from COVID-19 shutdowns remains in flux.
Shares of Nike have risen 9.6% over the past 12 months. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index
SPX,
has risen 15% over that period.
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Are stores getting more desperate to sell sneakers? Fourth-quarter results from Nike Inc. on Thursday will probably provide part of the answer.
Even as its some of its basketball shoes still put up double-digit sales gains — like those named after NBA icons LeBron James, Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo — the athletic-gear maker, like its rivals, has faced weaker consumer demand overall. With customers forced to spend more money on necessities over the past year, they’ve had less to spend on new shoes.
In March, Nike
NKE,
executives said that the demand backdrop remained “promotional” — one in which anyone selling sneakers and clothing was cutting prices more aggressively to attract customers. But ahead of Thursday’s results, some analysts also wondered whether the stalling demand has forced bigger changes to the way management thinks about its broader turn away from retailers — a core piece of its sales strategy.
Nike over recent years has embarked on a plan to rely less on shoe retailers for sales and more on sales made directly to customers through its own stores and online. But recently, it decided to start selling clothing again at Macy’s
M,
and shoes again at DSW, the shoe-store chain run by Designer Brands Inc.
DBI,
— this after ending partnerships with both retailers over the past two years.
The return to traditional retail has raised questions about whether Nike is looking to more aggressively clear product it’s had trouble selling, and whether management is re-evaluating the company’s go-it-alone sales strategy overall.
“The big question on our minds heading into [Nike’s] quarter is what is going on with the [direct-to-consumer] pivot?” Quo Vadis analyst John Zolidis said in a note on Monday. “Reopening Macy’s and DSW seems odd in context of previous dismissive statements about undifferentiated retail.”
He continued: “Further, neither of these retailers has a customer that correlates strongly with [Nike’s] highest-value segments. The easiest explanation is that [Nike] overestimated the dollars it could recapture from closed wholesale accounts and now has too much inventory it needs to clear.”
Earnings: Analysts polled by FactSet expect Nike to earn 68 cents a share, down from 90 cents in the same quarter a year ago. Contributors to Estimize — a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others — expect earnings per share of 75 cents.
Revenue: Analysts polled by FactSet expect $12.58 billion in sales for Nike. Forecasts from Estimize call for sales of $12.72 billion.
Stock price: Nike’s stock is only up 1.3% over the past 12 months. Shares got hit in September, after company executives warned of further price-cutting from rivals due to weaker demand. The stock rebounded later but gave up some gains in May. The stock was up 2% on Monday.
Nike in March said demand for product sold at full pricing remained solid. Still, sneaker chain Foot Locker Inc.
FL,
recently cut its outlook. Lots of Vans shoes are running at a discount, one analyst said last month, as the skater-centric brand competes with casual fare from the likes of Adidas
ADS,
and others.
Other analysts were also wondering about Nike’s return to Macy’s and DSW. But not everyone believed the move was a sign of deeper problems.
“Investors are worried that this is a reversal in Nike’s shift from wholesale to [direct-to-consumer], but we don’t think the strategy is broken,” BofA analyst Lorraine Hutchinson said in a research note on Wednesday. “We expect to hear an explanation of these moves on the [conference] call rather than an about-face on its focus on reducing undifferentiated wholesale.”
Still, the company faced concerns about sales abroad. Zolidis also said markets were increasingly worried about growth in China, whose recovery from pandemic lockdowns has stumbled.
“Our recent conversations with companies in China suggest that trends are mixed,” Zolidis said. “The consumer is more value oriented, and job uncertainty is higher.”
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Student loan borrowers aren’t just the freshly graduated and mid-30s working generations — millions of Americans in their retirement years have student debt to pay back, too.
There are six times as many borrowers ages 60 and older now than there were in 2004, but their debt has increased “19-fold,” according to a report from New America, a public policy think tank. About 3.5 million Americans in this age bracket carry $125 billion in student debt, the report found.
Overall, Americans hold $1.75 trillion in student debt, the World Economic Forum found. The president’s student loan forgiveness plan, which was announced last August and is now in the midst of legal battles in the Supreme Court, would alleviate $10,000 for qualifying borrowers, or $20,000 for those with Pell Grants. At the time of the announcement, the White House said 20 million borrowers would see their debt washed away, and a total of 40 million would find benefit from cancellation.
See: What you need to know about the student-loan cases before the Supreme Court as the decision looms
Student debt has been especially problematic because of “stagnant wages and soaring tuition prices,” AARP said in another report highlighting older borrowers. Around 3% of families headed by someone who was 50 or older had student debt in 1989, with an average balance of $10,000, but by 2016, that figure rose to 9.6%, with an average of $33,000, AARP said.
Whether student debt forgiveness will happen or not is still to be determined. Borrowers have been anxiously awaiting an answer from the Supreme Court over two cases linked to the plan — one that argues whether or not the president had the legal authority to forgive loans, and another case about whether the program has standing. The Supreme Court is expected to release its decision on Friday, the last day of the court’s term before summer break.
Older borrowers have various reasons to carry debt. Some are paying off their own education, while others have taken on student debt for their loved ones. Federal PLUS loans, for example, allow parents to take loans out for their children’s education. Older Americans may have also taken on debt to refine their skills for a promotion, AARP noted in its report.
Also see: Elizabeth Warren: ‘President Biden has the legal authority to cancel student-loan debt’
Student loans can have a rippling impact on retirement savings — not just in allocating a portion of retirement income toward this debt, but also in accruing enough wealth for old age. Graduates with student loans had 50% less in retirement wealth by age 30 than the graduates without this debt, a Boston College Center for Retirement Research study found.
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Rite Aid Corp. said Thursday that its fiscal first-quarter pharmacy sales got a boost from a new class of drug.
Pharmacy sales, which rose 3.4% from a year ago, were boosted by higher sales of Ozempic and other GLP-1 receptor agonists, which are used to treat Type 2 diabetes and obesity.
The higher sales did not translate into profit, however.
“As the cost of these drugs is also high, the impact of the increase in volume of these drugs on our gross profit dollars is minimal,” Rite Aid Chief Financial Officer Matthew Schroeder told analysts on the company’s earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript.
Still, the company
RAD,
cheered investors by raising its full-year revenue guidance due to the sales bump from Ozempic and other high-dollar GLP-1 drugs. It now expects revenue of $22.6 billion to $23 billion, ahead of the FactSet consensus of $22.3 billion.
Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus, which are made by Novo Nordisk
NOVO.B,
NOVO.B,
and Mounjaro, which is made by Eli Lilly & Co.
LLY,
have become so popular in the U.S. that supplies have at times run short and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has been forced to warn patients against using knockoff versions.
The drugs are administered by injection and mimic the effects of GLP-1, a gut hormone that can help control blood-sugar levels and reduce appetite. GLP stands for glucagon-like peptide.
Ozempic, Rybelsus and Mounjaro have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration for treatment of Type 2 diabetes, while Wegovy is approved for people with obesity and for certain people with excess weight combined with weight-related medical problems.
Last year, more than 5 million prescriptions for Ozempic, Mounjaro, Rybelsus or Wegovy were written for weight management, up from 230,000 in 2019, according to data and analytics firm Komodo Health.
Obesity drugs could be a $54 billion market by 2030, up from $2.4 billion in 2022, Morgan Stanley said in a report last year. Reports of people who take GLP-1 drugs seeing improvements in addictive behaviors such as smoking and drinking have lately amplified interest in the medications.
For more, read: The dark side of the weight-loss-drug craze: eating disorders, medication shortages, dangerous knockoffs
Drug companies, including Lilly and Pfizer Inc.
PFE,
are now working to develop treatments in the form of pills that could be more convenient alternatives to the injectables.
See now: Weight-loss drugs in development aim to replace injections with pills
Rite Aid’s overall numbers surprised on the upside, as its loss was narrower than expected and revenue beat the consensus estimate.
For more, see: Rite Aid’s stock soars 7.5% after company surprises with earnings that are less bad than feared
Eleanor Laise contributed.
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The World Health Organization’s cancer research arm is poised to declare the artificial sweetener aspartame as “possibly carcinogenic to humans” as early as next month, Reuters reported, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter.
Aspartame is used in products ranging from diet Coca-Cola
KO,
to Mars’ Extra chewing gum and certain Snapple drinks. The move will be the first by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, or IARC, the news agency reported.
The IARC ruling was finalized earlier this month after a meeting of its external experts. The meeting considered whether something is a potential hazard or not, based on all the published evidence. It did not consider, however, how much of a product can be safely consumed; that advice is made by a separate WHO expert committee on food additives, called JECFA — the Joint WHO and Food and Agriculture Organization’s Expert Committee on Food Additives) — as well as by national regulators.
Industry groups immediately pushed back on Thursday.
“Consumers deserve facts, and the fact is aspartame is one of the most widely studied food ingredients and has repeatedly been determined to be safe by global scientific and regulatory authorities, which is why the Calorie Control Council is gravely concerned about any unsubstantiated assertions that contradict this conclusion,” said Robert Rankin, president of the Calorie Control Council in emailed comments.
The IARC is not a regulatory agency, an ingredient expert or a food safety authority, Ranking added.
“Their sole focus is to find substances that could cause cancer, and they have classified things like aloe vera, low-frequency magnetic fields, and pickled vegetables as possibly causing cancer. Consumers want context and that is what’s missing from these misleading claims,” he said.
Kate Loatman, executive director of the International Council of Beverages Associations (ICBA), agreed.
“While it appears IARC is now prepared to concede that aspartame presents no more of a hazard to consumers than using aloe vera, public health authorities should be deeply concerned that this leaked opinion contradicts decades of high-quality scientific evidence and could needlessly mislead consumers into consuming more sugar rather than choosing safe no- and low-sugar options – all on the basis of low-quality studies,” Loatman said in a statement.
In May, the WHO advised people not to use nonsugar sweeteners for weight control, warning that they may increase the risk of Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and mortality in adults.
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AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.’s stock ended Wednesday’s session up 7.6% on the eve of a key hearing in the company’s push to convert its AMC Preferred Equity Units into common stock.
Shares of AMC
AMC,
had their largest single-day percentage gain since April 6, when they rose 21%. Earlier this week, the stock snapped its longest losing streak in 18 months. The APE
APE,
units ended Wednesday’s session down 3.4%.
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Micron Technology Inc. could be approaching a big new semiconductor cycle as it predicts a huge boost from artificial intelligence, but there could be a roadblock in the path.
Micron
MU,
reported a third-quarter loss and a 57% drop in revenue Wednesday, after the chip industry’s oversupply hit the memory-chip maker hard. On the bright side, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said he believed the memory industry “had passed its trough” and that the company’s margins should improve as the supply-demand balance is gradually restored.
Another big issue for the stock right now, though, is China’s decision to recommend that “operators of critical information infrastructure in China should stop purchasing Micron products.” Mehrotra told analysts on the company’s conference call that the decision will impact about 50% of its products sold in China.
“We currently estimate that approximately half of that China-headquartered customer revenue, which equates to a low double-digit percentage of Micron’s worldwide revenue, is at risk of being impacted,” Mehrotra said on the call. “This significant headwind is impacting our outlook and slowing our recovery.”
More from Therese: AI has given a big boost to stock of this lesser-known Silicon Valley computer maker
He said Micron will work with its long-term customers who are not impacted by China’s decision, and hopefully will increase its share with those customers.
On the plus side, Micron expects to see a substantial boost to its memory business as a result of companies gearing up to run generative AI on their own servers or clouds. “Generative AI [is] becoming a big opportunity and we look at it for 2024 as a big year for AI and for memory and storage, and Micron will be well-positioned,” in the data center with its products, Mehrotra said. He added that it is “very, very early innings for AI,” which is really pervasive. “It’s everywhere.”
Full earnings coverage: Micron CEO calls bottom in memory-chip market, but weak PC, smartphone forecasts cut into expected AI gains
He said it will be in both cloud and enterprise server applications, and due to confidentiality of data, enterprises will be building their own large language models, adding that the DRAM (dynamic random access memory) content required for AI in servers is driving higher demand for memory and storage in servers. In super cluster configurations, for example, the DRAM content can be as much as 100 times higher.
Investors appeared to maintain some caution about when the AI impact will kick in, even as some analysts have forecast that AI demand will lead to a general supercycle for many hardware companies. Micron’s shares see-sawed in after-hours trading Wednesday, ending the extended session up about 3%.
See also: Will generative AI complete the cloud transition? One prominent executive thinks so.
In a note ahead of the company’s earnings, Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri said that the impact from China “should be short-lived given the commodity nature of Micron’s products.”
Right now, it’s too early to say how long China may be a drag for Micron, but if Mehrotra is right, investors should take heart that the company is going to be another beneficiary of the coming AI boom.
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Micron Technology Inc. shares rose in the extended session Wednesday after the memory-chip maker’s chief executive called the bottom on the sector, and quarterly results came in better than expected.
Micron
MU,
shares had jumped more than 5% after hours following the release of results, but by the end of the company’s conference call with analysts, the stock was up less than 2%. Shares finished Wednesday’s session with a 0.4% gain to close at $67.07, while the S&P 500 index
SPX,
declined less than 0.1%.
The Boise, Idaho-based company forecast an adjusted loss of $1.26 to $1.12 a share on revenue of $3.7 billion to $4.1 billion for the fourth quarter, while analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated a loss of $1.07 a share on revenue of $3.88 billion for the fourth quarter, and a loss of $4.65 a share on revenue of $15.32 billion for the year.
Read: Snowflake stock rallies as ‘blizzard’ of AI product announcements make Wall Street happy
In the near term, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra told analysts on the call that while sales forecasts received a considerable boost from larger-than-expected AI sales, forecasts for PC, smartphone and standard server sales are looking worse than feared, and will eat into those gains. All told, however, the CEO told analysts that supply reductions are beginning to stabilize the market.
Micron Chief Financial Officer Mark Murphy said the company took about $400 million in inventory write-downs in the third quarter, contributing to negative gross margins of 16%, an improvement of 15 percentage points sequentially. When Micron reported its worst loss ever a quarter ago, the company had taken a $1.4 billion inventory charge. When Micron started flashing signs of negative margins earlier in the year, many analysts saw that as signs of a bottom on the horizon.
Read: Is Micron selling memory chips for less than they cost to make? That may mean the bottom is near.
Micron makes two types of memory chips: DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, the type of memory commonly used in PCs and servers; and NAND, the flash memory chips used in smaller devices like smartphones and USB drives. After prices for memory soared early in the COVID-19 pandemic, companies overbought large stores of chips to avoid shortages, creating a glut.
“As we have said before, AI servers have six to eight times the DRAM content of a regular server and three times the NAND content,” Mehrotra told analysts on the call. “In fact, some customers are deploying AI compute capability with substantially higher memory content.”
For the third quarter, Micron reported third-quarter loss of $1.9 billion, or $1.73 a share, versus net income of $2.63 billion, or $2.34 a share, in the year-ago period.
The adjusted loss, which excluded stock-based compensation expenses and other items, was $1.43 a share, versus net income of $2.59 a share in the year-ago period.
Revenue dropped to $3.75 billion from $8.64 billion in the year-ago quarter, as a two-year shortage of chips, triggered by the COVID pandemic, flipped quickly, but unevenly, into a glut around this time last year. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast a loss of $1.61 a share on revenue of $3.65 billion.
“We believe that the memory industry has passed its trough in revenue, and we expect margins to improve as industry supply-demand balance is gradually restored,” Mehrotra had said in an earlier statement.
The CEO also called a recent order by the Chinese government to stop using Micron chips because of alleged serious, but unspecified, risks “a significant headwind that is impacting our outlook and slowing our recovery.”
On the call with analysts, Mehrotra said he expects to see a “record total addressable market in calendar 2025 along with a return to more normalized levels of profitability.”
Leading up to earnings, analysts had said that Micron is “at the bottom of this deep downturn,” but “China complicates the recovery plan.” For the year, Micron shares are up 34%, compared with the S&P 500’s 14% gain.
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Financial disruptions in 2008 contributed to the deep economic downturn that came to be known as the Great Recession. Could recent bank failures similarly lead to a broad U.S. recession?
The $532 billion of assets of the three banks that failed in March and April 2023 exceed the inflation-adjusted value of $526 billion of assets of the 25 banks that failed in 2008. Yet the current situation differs in many ways from the underlying economic circumstances at the outset of the Great Recession.
Still, that experience, as well as others, show how financial distress can lead to macroeconomic weakness which then contributes to further financial distress, resulting in a downward spiral during which credit becomes tight, investment is curtailed and growth stalls.
Bank distress can have adverse consequences for borrowers and the broader economy. One source of recent U.S. bank vulnerabilities is the rapid increase in interest rates. Banks take in deposits that can be withdrawn in the short term and use them to make loans and invest in securities at interest rates that are fixed for some time.
As interest rates rise, the value of banks’ existing portfolio decreases as new investments at higher rates are more attractive. By one estimate, the U.S. banking system’s market value of assets is $2.2 trillion lower than suggested by their book value of assets accounting for loan portfolios held to maturity.
These book losses are realized if banks have to sell those assets to cover withdrawals from depositors. At the same time banks face challenges in maintaining deposit levels, depositors are less willing to place their money in low-return checking and savings accounts as higher-interest opportunities become increasingly available.
Banks that failed in 2023 have had specific weaknesses that made them particularly vulnerable. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), for example, was particularly exposed to risk from rising interest rates as it had heavily invested in longer-term government bonds which lost market value as interest rates rose and its management failed to hedge against this risk.
SVB was also especially vulnerable to a run by depositors because over 90% of the value of its deposits exceeded the $250,000 amount guaranteed by the Federal through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Depositors holding accounts in excess of this guaranteed amount, both individuals and companies (whose accounts were used for making payroll, among other reasons) are only partially protected in case of bank failure so they have an incentive to withdraw funds at the first sign of trouble.
Moreover, depositors were connected to each other through business and social groups, so news traveled quickly seeding the conditions for a classic bank run at Twitter speed. Signature Bank also had about 90% of its assets uninsured and its portfolio was heavily concentrated in crypto deposits. Both banks grew rapidly with inadequate risk and liquidity management practices in place and, while regulators had raised concerns about these risks, they had not taken more forceful actions to address them, according to a GAO report. Meanwhile, First Republic Bank, catered to wealthy depositors and for this reason also had a high share of uninsured deposits that made it more vulnerable to a bank run as its bond assets lost value amidst rising interest rates.
Commercial banks reduce lending when their deposits fall or when they otherwise cannot meet regulatory requirements. Deposits represent an important source of banks’ ability to lend. As a bank’s deposits decrease, it has less resources available for lending since other sources of funds are not as easily obtained.
A bank may also cut lending in an effort to satisfy regulations such as meeting or exceeding the Capital Adequacy Ratio. Regulators require banks to have enough capital on reserve to handle a certain amount of loan losses. The Capital Adequacy Ratio decreases when loans fail and the bank sees its loan loss reserves decline. The bank can then increase its Capital Adequacy Ratio by using funds that would otherwise be devoted to commercial loans or by shifting from loans to other assets that are less risky (such as government securities).
There is evidence that this effect contributed to the cutback in bank lending in New England in the 1990-1991 U.S. recession when there was a collapse in that region’s real estate market. A bank may choose to reduce lending if there are concerns about solvency even if it is not yet hitting up against the formal capital adequacy ratio requirement.
A credit crunch occurs when borrowers who would otherwise receive loans are precluded from doing so because of a restriction on the supply of loans by banks. But a reduction in bank lending could also reflect a decrease in borrowers’ demand for loans.
Researchers have used a variety of methods to identify when there is a credit crunch rather than just a lower demand for loans. For example, a credit crunch could be identified through looking for differential borrowing, employment, and performance patterns by bank-dependent companies as compared to those that have access to financing through bond or equity markets. Bank-dependent companies are typically smaller than those that have access to other types of financing.
Credit crunches due to bank distress can undermine investment and economic growth. An early and influential analysis by Ben Bernanke, who went on to chair the Federal Reserve and served during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, analyzed the effects of bank failures during the Great Depression. He found that bank failures had a particularly strong effect in reducing the amount of borrowing by households, farmers, and small businesses in that period, which contributed to the severity and duration of the Great Depression.
The U.S. banking system has been made more resilient since that time, but there is still evidence of the effect of a credit crunch on regional U.S. economies. The April 2023 IMF Global Financial Stability Report argued that a credit crunch in the United States could reduce lending by 1%, which would lower GDP growth by almost 0.5 percentage points.
Michael Klein is the executive editor of EconoFact. He is the William L. Clayton Professor of International Economic Affairs at The Fletcher School at Tufts University.
This commentary was originally published by EconoFact: Banks, Credit Crunches, and the Economy.
More: Justice Department to weigh updating banking competition rules
Also read: Senators make headway on clawing back pay from failed banks’ CEOs, as key committee advances bill
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Costco Corp. plans to take a tougher line on the sharing of membership cards.
The bulk retailer intends to ask customers to show photo identification in addition to a Costco
COST,
membership card when going through the self-checkout process. The Dallas Morning News first reported on the development last week.
A Costco spokesperson emphasized that the company’s policy isn’t changing, as the it always required membership cards at checkout. With the rise of self checkout, however, the company has noticed non-members using cards that don’t belong to them.
“We don’t feel it’s right that non-members receive the same benefits and pricing as our members,” a Costco spokesperson said.
The company indicated on its last earnings call that it was likely to hold off on increasing its membership fees, even as an analyst suggested Costco would appear to have room for a hike.
See more: Grocery prices are still going up, but Costco membership fees aren’t — for now
“Our view right now is that we’ve got enough levers out there to drive business,” Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti said on the earnings call, although his view is that Costco would be able to increase fees if it wanted to without meaningfully crimping renewal or signup rates.
Costco offers Gold Star and Business memberships for $60 each annually, as well as an Executive membership that costs $120. That higher tier of membership gives consumers a 2% reward on qualifying purchases from the company, among other benefits.
Costco joins Netflix Inc.
NFLX,
in clamping down on what the companies see as an abuse of membership privileges. The streaming service has moved recently to rein in account-sharing by viewers in different households, requiring either that freeloaders pay for their own accounts or that account holders pay extra to add additional viewers.
Netflix’s initiative seems to be having the desired financial effect, initial third-party data points indicate.
See also: Netflix stock rally builds as company wins cheers for password-sharing success
Read: Netflix could be looking at a ‘once-in-a-lifetime opportunity’
Bill Peters contributed.
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Shares of Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. slumped in the extended session Tuesday following a report that the Biden administration is considering a new ban on sales of AI chips to China.
Nvidia shares
NVDA,
A fell 3% after hours, following a 3.1% gain to close at $418.76, while AMD shares
AMD,
also fell 3%, after a 2.7% gain in the regular session to close at $110.39.
Late Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reported the Commerce Department could further block sales of AI chips to China unless U.S. companies first obtain a special license.
The ban would follow upon similar actions last year that threatened $400 million in Nvidia sales, but the company found a workaround in supplying a version of products that avoided the ban.
Read: AMD launches new data-center AI chips, software to go up against Nvidia and Intel
Both Nvidia and AMD have launched new AI chips this year: Nvidia in March and AMD earlier in the month. Last year’s release of Open AI’s ChatGPT generative AI — with billions of dollars invested by Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
— resulted in an explosion of interest in artificial-intelligence technology, prompting luminaries to herald the technology as the biggest thing in tech since … you name it.
Read: Bill Gates says AI is only the second revolutionary tech advancement in his lifetime
News of the possible ban happened to follow a claim earlier in the day from Baidu Inc.
BIDU,
on the Chinese search company’s blog, which said its Ernie 3.5 version AI outperformed ChatGPT’s earlier version “in comprehensive ability scores,” and its latest iteration, GPT-4, which was released in mid-March, “in several Chinese-language capabilities.”
Baidu’s claim appeared to be based upon performance metrics published in China Science Daily. On Wall Street, ADRs of Baidu were down 0.7% after hours, following a 3.1% gain to close at $143.90.
As of Tuesday’s close, Nvidia shares were up 187% in 2023, and AMD shares were up 70% for the year.
Read: Snowflake adds partnerships with Nvidia and Microsoft for AI double play
Shares of Super Micro Computer Inc.
SMCI,
which have benefited from AI, also declined 3% after hours, while shares of Intel Corp.
INTC,
which supplies chips to data centers, saw shares decline 1% after hours.
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Shopping online has just gotten safer.
The INFORM Consumers Act, which went into effect Tuesday, aims to limit the sales of stolen and counterfeit products on e-commerce platforms.
The measure, which requires e-commerce sites to verify and disclose information about their high-volume third-party sellers, was passed into law following a lobbying campaign to address counterfeit products after being left out of the bipartisan Chips and Science Act last year.
All online marketplaces, including eBay, Etsy, Poshmark and Amazon’s third-party sales platform, will now be required to collect information from high-volume sellers, defined as those selling 200 items or more totaling at least $5,000 over the previous 12 months. These third-party sellers must submit information such as a government-issued ID, a bank-account number, a working email address and phone number, and a taxpayer identification number.
Customers will also be able to find the verified contact information for bigger third-party sellers — those with sales of over $20,000 a year — and to get in touch with them outside of the e-commerce platform. In the past, consumers often had to engage within the platform operator in order to communicate with a seller.
Those bigger sellers will also have their full names and physical addresses listed on their product pages in addition to their contact information, according to the Federal Trade Commission’s business guide.
“This is a game changer,” said Teresa Murray, director of the consumer watchdog office at U.S. PIRG, a nonprofit that lobbies on behalf of the public interest. “For bad guys, stealing items has generally been the difficult part. Selling things online once you’ve stolen them is easy. We hope that with the INFORM Act, it’s not nearly as easy in the future.”
“‘The only people opposing this may be thieves.’”
The act goes into effect just weeks before Amazon Prime Day, when the world’s biggest e-commerce site rolls out discounts for Prime members. This year, Prime Day will be held over two days, on July 11 and 12.
Also see: Amazon sued by FTC, which alleges people were ‘tricked and trapped’ into Prime subscriptions
Several e-commerce platforms, including Amazon and eBay, supported the INFORM Consumers Act. TechNet, a national network of technology CEOs and senior executives representing what it calls the innovation economy, wrote to leaders in Congress last December, saying the law would improve consumer safety and increase transparency.
In a statement provided to MarketWatch, eBay
EBAY,
said it “fully supports transparency and is committed to a safe selling and buying experience for our customers. We were proud to support” the law “to protect consumers from bad actors who seek to misuse online marketplaces, while also ensuring important protections for sellers. We are fully prepared to comply with the new law.”
Etsy
ETSY,
said it “has long been supportive of the INFORM Act passing into law, as a balanced and thoughtful approach to make the ecommerce landscape safer for both consumers and sellers.” In a statement provided to MarketWatch, the company said, “We are taking appropriate steps to comply with the INFORM Act requirements.”
Amazon
AMZN,
and Poshmark, owned by South Korea–based Naver Corp.
035420,
did not immediately respond to MarketWatch requests for comment.
Some analysts, however, said the new law lacks stronger protections that were included the SHOP SAFE Act, an earlier bill that did not get passed by Congress. The INFORM Act, they noted, does not hold online platforms liable when a third party sells harmful counterfeit products or when the platform has not followed certain best practices.
“Notably, the legislation is supported by Amazon and other marketplaces as it’s seen as a watered-down bill that would head off more stringent legislation like the SHOP SAFE Act,” Ben Koltun, director of research at Beacon Policy Advisors, wrote in a note last year.
So how can consumers spot counterfeit or stolen items? A guide from PIRG has tips, such as keeping an eye out for products with suspiciously low prices or featuring misspellings or mislabeling or low-quality, photoshopped photos in their listings.
PIRG also cautions consumers about purchasing medications online. Always check the legitimacy of online pharmacies, it says.
“Many online marketplaces haven’t been doing enough to protect consumers from sellers who appear to be peddling stolen or counterfeit goods,” Murray said. “The only people opposing this [new law] may be thieves.”
Victor Reklaitis contributed.
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By Joe Hoppe
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings said Tuesday that it is on track to deliver on its 2024-25 financial targets and set out a range of new targets for 2027-28, and said it expects to invest around 2 billion pounds ($2.54 billion) over the next five years.
The luxury car maker said ahead of its capital markets day that it expects to meet its near-term targets of GBP2 billion in revenue and around GBP500 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by 2024-25. The company said it expects to achieve the targets in 2024, and with persistent momentum, is likely to exceed them in 2025.
The company also set out new midterm targets, aiming for revenue of around GBP2.5 billion, and an adjusted Ebitda of around GBP800 million for 2027-28, among others.
Aston Martin expects to invest GBP2 billion from 2023-27 into its long-term growth and the transition to electricification, comprising GBP1.8 billion of capital expenditure and around GBP200 million in technology access fees.
On Monday, Aston Martin said it had agreed preliminary terms for a deal with U.S. electric-vehicle maker Lucid Group, for the creation of ultra-luxury high-performance electric vehicles.
“With the heavy lifting now behind us, I have never been as confident in our future,” Executive Chairman Lawrence Stroll said.
Write to Joe Hoppe at joseph.hoppe@wsj.com
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This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-stock-price-ai-tesla-5af5041c
Shares of newly minted $1 trillion company
Nvidia
were taking it on the chin Monday, and investors searching for a reason should look to
Tesla
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As we enter artificial intelligence’s brave new world, humans have naturally come to fear what the future holds. Do computers like HAL from 2001: A Space Odyssey pose an existential threat? Or in an incident not from Hollywood fiction, an Air Force official’s recent remarks implying that a drone had autonomously changed course and killed its operator, only to be later declared a hypothetical, certainly raised alarm.
Closer to home for most of us, the release of large language models like ChatGPT have renewed worries about automation, reminiscent of earlier fears about mechanization. AI has advanced far beyond rote data-storage tasks and can even pass the bar exam, or write news, or research papers, leading to fears of massive white-collar unemployment.
But, as new research looking at data of job churn over the past two decades finds, the impact of automation on workers and industries is, in fact, pretty hard to predict given the complexity of the labor market, requiring carefully crafted policies that take these nuances into account.
First, changes in exposure to automation are not intuitive: they do not easily mesh with “blue-collar” and “white-collar” jobs, as typically defined. Instead, automation is more closely linked to the tasks and characteristics of each job, such as repetitiveness and face-to-face interactions. That translates to the three most automation-exposed jobs: office and administrative support, production, and business and financial operations occupations.
Meanwhile, the three least automation-exposed jobs are in personal care; installation, maintenance and repair occupations; and teaching. In other words, even with the Internet of Things controlling your HVAC system, it cannot fix itself when it needs new refrigerant, but its smart-panel interface can help the technician diagnose the problem remotely quickly and know what equipment to bring for a repair. But back-end accountants in that company may not fare as well in the AI jobs sweepstakes.
While automation can displace workers, history suggests that new technology also tends to boost productivity and create new jobs. Consider the automobile: while horses and buggies are outdated, we still need humans to drive (at least until autonomous vehicles come to full fruition), and the assembly line helped automate manufacturing with entire new classes of jobs created for every part of a car and all its electronic systems, with almost 1 million U.S. workers in auto manufacturing today.
But automation has continued in the auto industry over the decades, with robots helping to make hard and heavy physical labor tasks easier, without fully displacing workers. So there is a push-pull with automation, and the relative sizes of these countervailing effects remains an area of active scholarly debate.
“ It is rare for an entire job class to disappear overnight; changes mainly take place over generations ”
Second, it is rare for an entire job class to disappear overnight; changes mainly take place over generations. The research shows that newer generations of workers, perhaps deterred by the job insecurity observed in earlier generations and lured by high wages in the technology sector, are less inclined to enter automation-prone jobs than those before them. However, after embarking down those career paths, workers tend to stay in their fields, even if the prospects of automation loom large, likely because reskilling is time-consuming and expensive. It is relatively easy for recent high school graduates to opt for tech-centric college degrees like computer science, but learning new skills like coding is more difficult for mid-career professionals in automation-susceptible fields like manufacturing.
Adjustments to automation can be slow on the business side as well. Incorporating automated technology takes time because modern production tasks tend to be so intertwined that automating one part of a business can affect all other operations. For example, when AT&T, once the country’s largest firm, began replacing telephone operators with mechanical switchboards, they found that operators had become central to the complex production system that grew around them, which is why there are fewer operators today, but some still exist.
Third, the research found that the share of workers in highly automation-exposed occupations tends to be clustered, ranging from about 25% to 36% across commuting zones. The least-exposed areas in the U.S. are across the Mountain West, thanks to the area’s high shares of workers in management, retail sales and construction (which hasn’t had much automation or productivity improvement in decades but additive manufacturing may be a game-changer), as well as those on the East and West coasts, with their more innovative finance and tech industries.
On the other hand, those most exposed to automation tend to be located in the Great Plains and Rust Belt, namely due to agriculture. In spite of the fact that U.S. agriculture has been exposed to automation for over a century (more efficient machines and advances in biotechnology), it has become even more technology-driven recently, making ag workers more likely to be impacted by automation.
Read: How artificial intelligence can make hiring bias worse
So will the robots take over your job soon? More likely, they will make our jobs easier and more efficient. Trying to slow the adoption of technology is both futile and counterproductive: taxing or overregulating tech adoption may backfire, especially given global competitiveness and other countries who may not pause. While the advent of a new era of automation is likely to be both gradually incorporated and result in complements to human labor rather than full replacement, thoughtful policies can help disrupted workers transition to new and better opportunities, ensuring we can harness the transformative power of automation and foster a future of work that benefits all.
Eric Carlson is associate economist at the Economic Innovation Group; DJ Nordquist is EIG’s executive vice president.
More: AI is ready to take on menial tasks in the workplace, but don’t sweat robot replacement (just yet)
Also read: ‘Make friends with this technology’: Yes, AI is coming for your job. Here’s how to prepare.
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That’s a notion that has long fueled hope for many of the more than 40% of Americans who are considered obese — and fueled criticism by those who advocate for wider weight acceptance. Soon, it may be a reality.
High-dose oral versions of the medication in the weight-loss drug Wegovy may work as well as the popular injections when it comes to paring pounds and improving health, according to final results of two studies released Sunday night. The potent tablets also appear to work for people with diabetes, who notoriously struggle to lose weight.
Drugmaker Novo Nordisk
NOVO.B,
plans to ask the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to approve the pills later this year.
“If you ask people a random question, ‘Would you rather take a pill or an injection?’ People overwhelmingly prefer a pill,” said Dr. Daniel Bessesen, chief of endocrinology at Denver Health, who treats patients with obesity but was not involved in the new research.
That’s assuming, Bessesen said, that both ways to take the medications are equally effective, available and affordable. “Those are the most important factors for people,” he said.
There have been other weight-loss pills on the market, but none that achieve the substantial reductions seen with injected drugs like Wegovy. People with obesity will be “thrilled” to have an oral option that’s as effective, said Dr. Katherine Saunders, clinical professor of medicine at Weill Cornell Health and co-founder of Intellihealth, a weight-loss center.
Novo Nordisk already sells Rybelsus, which is approved to treat diabetes and is an oral version of semaglutide, the same medication used in the diabetes drug Ozempic and Wegovy. It comes in doses up to 14 milligrams.
But results of two gold-standard trials released at the American Diabetes Association’s annual meeting looked at how doses of oral semaglutide as high as 25 milligrams and 50 milligrams worked to reduce weight and improve blood sugar and other health markers.
A 16-month study of about 1,600 people who were overweight or obese and already being treated for Type 2 diabetes found the high-dose daily pills lowered blood sugar significantly better than the standard dose of Rybelsus. From a baseline weight of 212 pounds, the higher doses also resulted in weight loss of between 15 and 20 pounds, compared to about 10 pounds on the lower dose.
Another 16-month study of more than 660 adults who had obesity or were overweight with at least one related disease — but not diabetes — found the 50-milligram daily pill helped people lose an average of about 15% of their body weight, or about 35 pounds, versus about 6 pounds with a dummy pill, or placebo.
That’s “notably consistent” with the weight loss spurred by weekly shots of the highest dose of Wegovy, the study authors said.
But there were side effects. About 80% of participants receiving any size dose of oral semaglutide experienced things like mild to moderate intestinal problems, such as nausea, constipation and diarrhea.
In the 50-milligram obesity trial, there was evidence of higher rates of benign tumors in people who took the drug versus a placebo. In addition, about 13% of those who took the drug had “altered skin sensation” such as tingling or extra sensitivity.
Medical experts predict the pills will be popular, especially among people who want to lose weight but are fearful of needles. Plus, tablets would be more portable than injection pens and they don’t have to be stored in the refrigerator.
But the pills aren’t necessarily a better option for the hundreds of thousands of people already taking injectable versions such as Ozempic or Wegovy, said Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford, an obesity medicine expert at Massachusetts General Hospital.
“I don’t find significant hesitancy surrounding receiving an injection,” she said. “A lot of people like the ease of taking a medication once a week.”
In addition, she said, some patients may actually prefer shots to the new pills, which have to be taken 30 minutes before eating or drinking in the morning.
Paul Morer, 56, who works for a New Jersey hospital system, lost 85 pounds using Wegovy and hopes to lose 30 more. He said he would probably stick with the weekly injections, even if pills were available.
“I do it on Saturday morning. It’s part of my routine,” he said. “I don’t even feel the needle. It’s a non-issue.”
Some critics also worry that a pill will also put pressure on people who are obese to use it, fueling social stigma against people who can’t — or don’t want to — lose weight, said Tigress Osborn, chair of the National Association to Advance Fat Acceptance.
“There is no escape from the narrative that your body is wrong and it should change,” Osborn said.
Still, Novo Nordisk is banking on the popularity of a higher-dose pill to treat both diabetes and obesity. Sales of Rybelsus reached about $1.63 billion last year, more than double the 2021 figure.
Other companies are working on oral versions of drugs that work as well as Eli Lilly and Co.’s
LLY,
Mounjaro — an injectable diabetes drug expected to be approved for weight-loss soon. Lilly researchers reported promising mid-stage trial results for an oral pill called orforglipron to treat patients who are obese or overweight with and without diabetes.
Pfizer
PFE,
too, has released mid-stage results for dangulgipron, an oral drug for diabetes taken twice daily with food.
Novo Nordisk officials said it’s too early to say what the cost of the firm’s high-dose oral pills would be or how the company plans to guarantee adequate manufacturing capacity to meet to demand. Despite surging popularity, injectable doses of Wegovy will be in short supply until at least September, company officials said.
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As the fight between bosses and workers over returning to the office keeps entering new rounds, new data show how much in-office attendance ramped up last year — especially for white-collar workers with high levels of education.
But even still, the return to the office has been two different stories for men and women. From 2021 to 2022, men spent more time at the workplace while women spent the same amount of time working from home year-over-year.
Last year, 34% of workers said they worked from home at least part of the time, according to the annual Bureau of Labor Statistics survey of how Americans spend their time.
That was down from the 38% of employed people who said the same in 2021 — and a deeper look into Thursday’s data reveals an even more pronounced, but uneven, reduction in the number of people who are working remotely.
More than one quarter of men in 2022 said they spend at least some of their working time at home, while 41% of women said they had work-from-home in their job schedule. One year earlier, it was a different story for men, but not for women. Over one-third of men, 35%, said working from home was part of their routine while 42% of women said the same.
It may be a reminder of the juggle that women face between their personal and professional lives. For example, in homes with children under age 6, women spent just over an hour each day caring for their children while men in those households spent half that amount. That breakdown was unchanged between 2022 and 2021, the data showed.
Meanwhile, the return-to-office trend accelerated for more educated workers from 2021 to 2022. In 2021, 60% of people with at least a bachelor’s degree said they did some of their work from home. In 2022, the share fell to 54% doing some work from home.
When the pandemic shut down offices and other workplaces, people with higher levels of education often had greater chances of being able to stay home while they worked.
That dynamic is still at play now, although the differences between groups are becoming less stark. Last year and in 2021, the share of people with no college degree who said they worked from home at least some of the time stayed below 20%.
It’s unclear what was driving highly-educated workers to spend more time in the office between 2021 and 2022, said Stephan Meier, a Columbia Business School professor who chairs the school’s management division. Some of it could be attributed to return-to-office policies, but it might also be due to growing comfort with vaccination and public-health measures as the pandemic continued, he said.
“What I would care about is who goes to the office and who doesn’t want to go to the office,” he said.
The overall change in numbers is not “a major shift,” said Meier, who teaches students and executives about the future of work. “What those numbers show to me is that the war on remote work is not over.”
The year-over-year decline fits with the trends that Nicholas Bloom, a professor of economics at Stanford University, is seeing in his own research analyzing where people say they are working these days. Even if there’s less remote work happening, Bloom said, his research shows the “rate of decline is itself declining.”
Bloom thinks the rate of remote work may bottom out next year. “I predict longer-run, from 2025 onwards, this will start to rise again as remote-work technology — hardware, software, [virtual reality, augmented reality], etc. — gets better and continues the long-run rise of [working from home].”
Between May and December 2020, Bureau of Labor Statistics research showed, 42% of employed people said they spent least some of their time working from home as COVID-19 upended daily life.
As a whole, the BLS survey on how Americans use their time paints a picture of a slow return to the office — but not necessarily a return to the way things were before COVID-19.
Before the pandemic, 24% of workers said they spent some of their time working from home, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This year, office foot traffic has edged higher, but the rise is incremental and uneven. Earlier in June, average weekly office occupancy surpassed 50% for the first time in three months, according to an ongoing gauge from Kastle Systems, a security-technology provider.
One week later, the company’s barometer of average occupancy across 10 major cities dropped back below 50%. In the data from early June, Tuesdays tended to be the busiest days for offices, and Fridays were the slowest.
Meier said he wouldn’t be surprised if next year’s time-use survey reveals even less time spent working from home. But this is a transitional moment in which businesses are figuring out the particular version of hybrid work duties and office setups that work for them, he said.
“Personally, I do think there is something magical about being in person,” Meier said. “Does it need to be five days a week? Absolutely not.”
See also: Salesforce is trying a ‘cute gimmick’ to get workers back to the office, but it may fall flat
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