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Tag: Government/Law

  • Student Loan Forgiveness on Ice: Insights for Borrowers

    Student Loan Forgiveness on Ice: Insights for Borrowers

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    Newswise — With the proposed student debt relief program mired and stalled in legal battles, it’s now revealed that erroneous notices of student debt forgiveness application approvals were emailed to about 9 million Americans. At this point, says UMD Smith’s Samuel Handwerger, “the Biden administration might be asking themselves ‘Is the road to hell really paved with good intentions?’”

    Handwerger adds: “Whether the intent has been solely to boost the economy and promote higher educational achievement amongst Americans or a veiled political ad for Democratic votes in the latest election, find me an economist that believes an educated population is not good for the economy and I will show you that Joseph Stalin’s many 5-year plans really did succeed.”

    Handwerger, CPA and accounting lecturer for the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, gives more insights – especially for borrowers – in this Q&A:

    What are the essentials to know concerning the legal challenges?

    Handwerger: This boils down to two cases. First, in Texas, two individuals — backed by the conservative organization Job Creators Network Foundation — allege the forgiveness plan unfairly excludes them and shouldn’t be allowed. The other suit, “ Nebraska v. Biden,” comes from a group of states — Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina — claiming that the forgiveness would hurt them in the form of lost tax revenue. Normally, loan forgiveness results in taxable income for the individual whose loan has been forgiven. But based on the 2017 Trump Administration tax law, student loan forgiveness is not considered taxable income during the years 2018 thru 2025, after which that particular provision sunsets. Talk about a perfect storm of Republican and Democratic agendas.

    With another pause on repayments, is there anything different this time?

    Handwerger: Starting in 2020 under Trump, repayments for federal student loans have been in a state of suspended animation — no payments and no interest accruing. President Biden now has extended this original pause seven times with this latest move. But unlike previous extensions which expired by easily decipherable due dates, this latest extension almost requires a college degree to fully follow. But to put it as simple as possible, payments restart 60 days after whichever of the following scenarios happens first:

    • The lawsuits that have blocked the debt relief are resolved
    • Debt relief is implemented
    • The date is June 30, 2023

    In other words, if the debt relief is not implemented or the lawsuits are not resolved prior to June 30, 2023, then 60 days after this date, payments start to become due again and interest accrual resumes.

    Should borrowers make voluntary payments?

    Handwerger: Regarding this freeze-of-interest tolling, making voluntary payments in the interim is not an economically smart move, as normally one would be better served to earn some short-term interest on the funds. Even with a moving-target restart date making such financial planning tricky, the smart money move still is not to make payments while the freeze remains on. Adding to the efficacy of this argument is that the months during the pause still count as months with proper payment for many federal loan programs, where unpaid principal after a series of years is ultimately forgiven.

    How long before a resolution? What if Biden wins?

    Handwerger: It will be interesting to see how Biden will handle the applications for debt forgiveness if it legally can be resumed. Currently, loan forgiveness applications are suspended, and the government is not accepting any more applications. Originally the end date for applying was scheduled to be December 31, 2023. But the wheels on the legal process could go very slowly if the Supreme Court enters the picture. All of this makes for a lot of uncertainty for the 43 million-plus Americans holding unpaid student loan debt. The loan relief, in its original form, did not apply to loans originating after July 1, 2022. So, taking on more student debt needs to be carefully considered, as it always should be. My query: Would a win allowing for the loan forgiveness after a protracted legal battle entice Biden to expand the loans available for relief? I can’t wait for further developments to find out.

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    University of Maryland, Robert H. Smith School of Business

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  • Reliable planning tool for the emissions path to achieving the Paris temperature goal

    Reliable planning tool for the emissions path to achieving the Paris temperature goal

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    Newswise — The central aim of the Paris climate agreement is clear: Limiting man-made global warming to well below 2°C. This limit requires a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to net zero. But what do the intermediate stages look like? How big should the reduction in emissions be within the next five, ten, or fifteen years? And which emissions path is being followed? There is no consensus on these issues between countries, which complicates the active implementation of the Paris Agreement.

    Researchers at the University of Bern have now developed a new method to determine the necessary reduction in emissions on a continuous basis. The main idea: Instead of complex climate models and scenarios, the observed relationship between warming and emissions is applied, and the reduction path is adapted repeatedly according to the latest observations. This new approach has just been published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

    A new calculation method for the emission reduction path

    To date, climate models have been used to calculate possible emissions pathways to the net zero goal. These pathways are based on scenarios including economic and social developments. “These calculations for the emission paths are subject to large uncertainties. This makes the decision-making more difficult and might be one reason why the promised reductions made by the 194 signatory countries to the Paris Agreement remain insufficient,” says lead author Jens Terhaar, explaining the background to the study. Like most of the other authors, Terhaar is a member of the Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research at the University of Bern.

    “Since the climate agreement actually aims at regulating temperature, we thought to specify an optimal emissions reduction path for this purpose which is independent of model-based projections,” continues Terhaar. According to this initial idea, a calculation method has emerged which is based exclusively on observation data: on the one hand, global surface temperatures in the past, and on the other hand, CO2 emissions statistics.

    The Paris Agreement calls for a stocktake of the necessary reductions in global emissions every five years. “The new Bern calculation method is ideally suited to support the stocktake mechanism of the Paris Agreement, as it enables the emission reductions to be recalculated regularly on an adaptive basis,” explains co-author Fortunat Joos of the Oeschger Center. For this purpose, a new algorithm has been developed which is known as the AERA (adaptive emissions reduction approach). In simple terms, the algorithm correlates CO2 emissions with rising temperatures, and is adjusted using a control mechanism. In this way, the current uncertainties in the interaction between these variables can be put aside.

    “Our adaptive approach circumvents the uncertainties, so to speak,” explains Fortunat Joos. “In the same way that a thermostat continuously adjusts the heating to the required room temperature, our algorithm adjusts the emission reductions according to the latest temperature and emissions data. This will allow us to approach a temperature goal, such as the 2°C goal, step-by-step and with specific interim goals.”

    Stronger emissions goals and effective implementation

    “The AERA method already confirms that international climate policy must be far more ambitious,” demands Terhaar. According to the Bern study, to achieve the 2°C goal, global CO2 emissions would have to fall by 7 percent between 2020 and 2025. They actually increased by approximately 1 percent in 2021 in comparison with 2020, though. According to the algorithm, limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require as much as a 27 percent reduction by 2025. “We need far stricter emissions goals than those to which nations have committed,” explains Thomas Frölicher, co-author of the study from the Oeschger Center, “and above all else, effective implementation of the goals.”

    The Researchers in Bern hope that the new calculation method will succeed in finding its way into international climate policy. “The AERA algorithm is already attracting a lot of interest in the climate research community, as it can also be applied to climate modelling,” explains Jens Terhaar. Until now, climate models with prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations have been used. This meant that at the end of the 21st century, the warming for a specific greenhouse gas concentration was very uncertain. When using the climate models with the AERA, however, emissions are continuously adjusted according to the calculated temperature and the intended temperature goal. On this basis, the model temperature is eventually stabilised at the intended level and all the models simulate the same warming, but with different emission pathways. “The AERA enables us to study impacts such as heat waves or ocean acidification for different temperature goals – such as 1.5°C versus 2°C versus 3°C – on a consistent basis and with state-of-the-art models,” explains Terhaar.

    Worldwide, 11 research groups have already started to apply the algorithm under the leadership of the University of Bern in order to study such impacts.

    Information about the publication:

    Jens Terhaar, Thomas L. Frölicher, Mathias T. Aschwanden, Pierre Friedlingstein, Fortunat Joos. Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target, Nature Climate Change

    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9

    Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research

    The Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR) is one of the strategic centers of the University of Bern. It brings together researchers from 14 institutes and four faculties. The OCCR conducts interdisciplinary research at the cutting edge of climate change research. The Oeschger Center was founded in 2007 and bears the name of Hans Oeschger (1927-1998), a pioneer of modern climate research, who worked in Bern.

    Further information: www.oeschger.unibe.ch

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    University of Bern

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  • US Housing: Smith Expert Breaks Down the Gloomy Forecast

    US Housing: Smith Expert Breaks Down the Gloomy Forecast

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    Newswise — Inflation, soaring interest rates and massive financial market volatility have dampened end-of-year projections for the U.S. economy. But housing, in a historically low mortgage-rate environment, has been an outlier amid the disorder – until recently. Now, clouds are on the horizon, says UMD Smith’s Clifford Rossi, and rumblings suggest all may not be well with U.S. housing. So, “to determine whether we’re looking at a Cat 5 hurricane or merely a steady rain, we need to scrutinize the host of variables affecting this market.”

    First, significantly, there really is no such thing as a national housing market but rather “thousands of local housing markets that are driven by a combination of market fundamentals that push-and-pull on markets over economic cycles. This means some markets will hold up better than others over time because of these forces,” says Rossi, professor of the practice and executive-in-residence for the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business.

    However, with the Federal Reserve in a real fight to combat inflation, the mortgage market is entering a cold winter. Rossi adds, “with rates on fixed-rate 30-year mortgages above 7% for the first time in many years, mortgage demand has been crushed.”

    A countervailing effect, though, is that the housing market has experienced an abnormally low level of supply. In other words, “months of housing inventory – usually around five-to-six months or so for a ‘normal’ market has been hovering around two months for most of 2022,” Rossi says. “This should hold back markets from experiencing a serious decline in home prices over the next year.”

    Rossi says housing prices will continue to decelerate as mortgage rates continue to climb with further Fed rate hikes. Should a recession materialize in 2023, this would further drive down home prices, but a fair amount of uncertainty persists about the timing and depth of such a downturn.

    The effect on lenders and servicers is a wildcard here. “Expect a significant amount of consolidation in the industry most notably among non-bank originators and servicers,” he says. “These institutions swept into the mortgage market in the years following the 2008 crisis and now dominate originations and servicing in the mortgage market for all investor types.”

    These firms are only regulated at the state level from a safety and soundness perspective and tend to have less capital and liquidity on hand in the event of a significant downturn. This makes them significantly riskier than federally regulated depositories such as commercial banks.

    Originators are struggling to make money in a purchase money environment where borrower refinances have dried up as rates have risen. “Many people who refinanced their mortgage at 3% are in the catbird seat now and will not be as motivated to sell their home as a result,” Rossi says. “This phenomenon will also hold housing inventory levels down.”

    The Projection

    “Generally, we are in for a bumpy ride in housing for the next 12 months, but we shouldn’t expect it to look anything like 2008-2009,” Rossi says. “This looks to be more of a reversion to the mean from a period of lofty house-price appreciation.”

    Rossi says, “if pressed, I could see “a 3-8% decline in home prices with 5% down being my expected level over the next 12 months. This would be conditional on a Fed terminal rate of 4.75% by the first part of 2023, a mild recession sometime in the mid-to-late part of the year, and unemployment rates no more than 5-6%.” But he adds, these, among other factors, obviously hang in the balance.

    Variables and Wildcards

    Deviations from these assumptions on either side would affect these home price projections, Rossi says. One of the trickier issues is figuring out what the Fed will do if the economy does enter a recession. “Would they start lowering rates or hold the line to finish the job on inflation? Right now, the Fed seems poised to fight inflation first and then deal with the aftermath. That strategy coupled with the long lags in monetary policy have me leaning more to a higher likelihood of recession.”

    Another wildcard is job openings as described in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. “Should job numbers remain at elevated levels, the Fed might feel more emboldened to hold the line against lowering rates in the face of a recession.”

    Advice for Prospective Buyers

    Typically, during a recession when unemployment rates rise, mortgage delinquencies follow. “Expect any recession in 2023 to lead to those same outcomes, but I do not expect any crash in housing as a result.”

    Rossi concludes: “In this environment and if you have a low mortgage rate — unless some life change dictates otherwise, I would stay put as this period of market uncertainty unfolds, I would bolster my short-term finances for repairs and other unexpected expenses including much higher maintenance costs (e.g., utility bills) during this winter of housing discontent.”

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    University of Maryland, Robert H. Smith School of Business

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  • There’s no evidence that U.S. aid money sent to Ukraine was then used to invest in FTX as a money laundering scheme

    There’s no evidence that U.S. aid money sent to Ukraine was then used to invest in FTX as a money laundering scheme

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    The news that FTX, the cryptocurrency company, filed for bankruptcy protection amid news it was short billions of dollars has spawned many conspiracy theories being shared on social media. Viral tweets like this one posted on November 13th claim that U.S. aid to Ukraine was laundered back to the Democratic Party through the failed cryptocurrency exchange firm FTX. An article in the conservative site The Gateway Pundit with the headline “Tens of Billions of US Dollars Were Transferred to Ukraine and then Using FTX Crypto Currency the Funds Were Laundered Back to Democrats in US” was shared widely on social media. There is no evidence to support this claim. The Ukrainian government has not invested nor stored money in FTX, according to the country’s Ministry of Digital Transformation. The claim has been rated False.

    Dr. Nigel Williams, a Reader in Project Management at the University of Portsmouth has this to say…

    The collapse of FTX was catalyzed by a tweet on Sunday, November 6th, by the CEO of Binance, Changpeng Zhao: 

    As part of Binance’s exit from FTX equity last year, Binance received roughly $2.1 billion USD equivalent in cash (BUSD and FTT). Due to recent revelations that have came to light, we have decided to liquidate any remaining FTT on our books. 1/4

    Before this date, however, FTX’s actions were heavily scrutinized by conservative commentators on Twitter despite the fact that FTX donated to both political parties. Even before the collapse, efforts were made to link FTX’s actions to the Democratic Party. For example, on November 4th, Wayne Vaughan, CEO of Tieron tweeted, “Sam [Sam Bankman-Fried. former CEO of FTX] is one of the largest Democrat donors. It’s logical that he’d want to get the bill done before Republicans take control of Congress.”

    On November 8, when it became clear that FTX was floundering, commentators attempted to blame the company’s troubles on their political involvement (example here).  While the results were being tallied, early conspiracy theories emerged (example here). These theories later evolved into the story that now links FTX, the Democrats, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine when it became clear that the Democratic party performed better than the previous media narrative would suggest.

    While FTX’s bankruptcy has begun to offer insights into possible gaps in financial controls that resulted in their collapse, the full story will not be known until detailed audits are completed. To date, the promoters of the FTX/Ukraine/Democrat narrative have not offered any supporting evidence for their theory.  This is, of course easily explained by these promoters who claim that there is a cover-up and no evidence would be available. 

     

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    Newswise

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  • EXPERT: Feds OK plan to demolish four dams on the lower Klamath River, water resources law scholar available

    EXPERT: Feds OK plan to demolish four dams on the lower Klamath River, water resources law scholar available

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    Newswise — U.S. regulators just announced that they have approved a plan to demolish four dams on the lower Klamath River and open up hundreds of miles of salmon habitat that would be the largest dam removal and river restoration project in the world when it goes forward. 

    University of Oregon law professor Adell L. Amos has deep experience and expertise on the Klamath Basin and on dam removal more generally. 

    ABOUT ADELL L. AMOS

    Amos is served in the Obama Administration as the Deputy Solicitor for Land and Water Resources at the U.S. Department of the Interior. Amos oversaw legal and policy issues involving the nation’s water resources and public lands. She worked directly on water resilience and planning, wilderness policy, the National Landscape Conservation System, renewable energy and its associated water footprint, low-impact hydropower, dam removal efforts including the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement, the America’s Great Outdoors Initiative, and many others. Her research emphasizes the jurisdictional governance structures that are deployed for water resources management in the United States and internationally. She focuses on the relationship between federal and state governments on water resource management, the role of administrative agencies in setting national, state, and local water policy, the role of law in developing water policy and responding to change, and the impact of stakeholder participation in water resource decision-making. She is currently working on a multi-year project which focuses on the integration of law and policy into hydrologic and socioeconomic modeling for the Willamette River Basin through a multi-institutional, interdisciplinary effort funded by the NOAA and the National Science Foundation. Amos holds the Clayton R. Hess Professorship and serves as the Executive Director for the Environment Initiative at the UO. She teaches regularly in the nationally ranked Environmental and Natural Resources Law Program, including courses in Water Law, Federal Administrative Law, Environmental Conflict Resolution, and Oregon Water Law and Policy. Her teaching and scholarship have been recognized by the UO Fund for Faculty Excellence and the Hollis Teaching Awards.

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    University of Oregon

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  • Case study proposes framework for analyzing U.S.-China geo-political tensions in Indo-Pacific

    Case study proposes framework for analyzing U.S.-China geo-political tensions in Indo-Pacific

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    Newswise — Social sciences and international relations experts at Hiroshima University in Japan have proposed a new framework for studying the immensely complex power dynamics between China and the U.S., and its allies bordering the Pacific Ocean – “hybrid balancing.” The concept evolved out of “hybrid warfare,” which was an outgrowth of the Cold War between the U.S. and the former Soviet Union, when war became more about public perception, trust in governments, and economic leverage than bullets and tanks.

    Since then, and especially since the invasion of Crimea by the Russian Federation in March 2014, hybrid warfare has been popularized to the extent that the concept has become a cornerstone of security studies worldwide, according to Assistant Professor Ryuta Ito of the Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, who wrote and published the case study in peer-reviewed journal International Affairs in early November 2022.

    “Hybrid warfare has recently attracted scholarly attention,” Ito said. “Despite its importance, hybrid warfare research remains underdeveloped, as it sometimes falls into the trap of ‘simplistic hypothesis testing’, which focuses on narrowly defined military factors while downplaying the fundamentals of international politics (e.g. balancing and diplomacy). My recent article fills this gap by constructing a new theoretical concept called ‘hybrid balancing’ by introducing the essence of hybrid warfare into classical realism, based on the scientific realism in the philosophy of science as a meta-theoretical foundation.”

    Political scientists and international relations academics and analysts hope to better understand how China uses its vast social and economic influence across the Indo-Pacific region to maintain favorable trade conditions while also seeking to quell the proliferation of liberal Western cultural ideals. Geographically, the Indo-Pacific region extends from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean (especially the western Pacific): namely, from the eastern coast of Africa and the environs of Madagascar, through the waters around the Philippines and Indonesia between the two oceans, to the eastern edge of Oceania, Ito wrote in the case study. “Politically, since 2010, it has gradually established itself as a strategic concept in the foreign policy lexicon of some countries, particularly Australia, India, Japan, and the United States.”

    “Rather than being a new form of conflict, hybrid warfare is a strategy that the belligerent uses to advance its political goals on the battlefield by applying military force subversively,” Ito wrote, referencing a 2016 paper in International Affairs.

    The interest and urgency surrounding the study of hybrid warfare are growing in part because of the conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. “As has been widely reported, the war in Ukraine has the potential to demonstrate costs and consequences of a powerful nation attempting to overtake a smaller, yet highly productive and resource-rich state such as Taiwan,” Ito said. “In the case of China and Taiwan, the stakes in an all-out military conflict would be on the orders of magnitude greater than what we’re seeing in Ukraine, so a conventional war is virtually unthinkable. However, hybrid balancing as I’ve described better encapsulates the ebb and flow of power in the Indo-Pacific.”

    What has emerged in the past decade in response to China’s hybrid balancing posturing is the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) Coalition,” which includes pro-democracy nations across the Indo-Pacific and led by economic heavyweights U.S., Japan, and Australia.

    “It is apparent to us that China is engaging in hybrid balancing in this region to counter the liberal democratic coalition advancing the FOIP strategy,” Ito said. “Further study is warranted as tensions across this economically crucial region continue to grow. Cases other than China’s use of hybrid warfare in the Indo-Pacific are needed to verify hybrid balancing more robustly. Since our article’s case-study is a plausibility probe, which aims not to test a theory but merely to illustrate it to show that the argument is sufficiently grounded in evidence to justify further research, the next step may be rigorous case-studies to confirm the logic of hybrid balancing.”

    ###

    About Hiroshima University

    Since its foundation in 1949, Hiroshima University has striven to become one of the most prominent and comprehensive universities in Japan for the promotion and development of scholarship and education. Consisting of 12 schools for undergraduate level and 4 graduate schools, ranging from natural sciences to humanities and social sciences, the university has grown into one of the most distinguished comprehensive research universities in Japan.
    English website: https://www.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/en

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    Hiroshima University

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  • Twitter Layoffs ‘Callous’, Possibly in Violation of Federal, State Law

    Twitter Layoffs ‘Callous’, Possibly in Violation of Federal, State Law

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    Newswise — A lawsuit was filed against Twitter for allegedly violating California’s WARN Act by failing to give enough notice about ongoing mass layoffs.

    Cathy Creighton is the director of the Buffalo Co-Lab at Cornell’s ILR School and a labor law expert. She can speak to the law, implications for Twitter and possible impacts for the wider labor-management landscape.

    Creighton says:

    “Musk’s treatment of his workers is very poor in so many ways. Termination of employment is one of the worst things that can happen to a person as it eliminates a means of providing a person and their family with a living. Employees do not expect to be summarily terminated, especially by a person of such wealth and means as Mr. Musk. Since health insurance is often tied to employment in the U.S., employees who are terminated also lose their health insurance, which can be devastating. Shame on Mr. Musk for treating his workers so callously and shabby.  

    “Twitter may be running afoul of federal and state law. Under the federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act (WARN Act), when there is a mass layoff, employers must give 60 days’ notice to employees. It does not seem that employees received such notice. Additionally, California law requires 60 days’ notice and there are higher penalties for violating the law. Failure to give proper notice under the California WARN Act results in a penalty of $500 per day per employee. Additionally, the employer must pay employees’ health insurance claims as if the employee had their employer health insurance plan during the notice period.

    “Employees who are unionized would receive notice and an opportunity to bargain over a layoff. Tech workers in the U.S. who are looking at their employers following Elon Musk’s lead might want to consider unionizing their workplaces. A unionized workforce has many protections that nonunion employees do not have – this is just one example.”

    Cornell University has dedicated television and audio studios available for media interviews.

    – 30 –

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    Cornell University

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  • The Future of the Supreme Court: A Conversation with Law Professor Richard W. Garnett

    The Future of the Supreme Court: A Conversation with Law Professor Richard W. Garnett

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    Newswise — On Oct. 3, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) began hearing cases for its new term, following one of its most significant sessions that featured a landmark abortion ruling, a major leak, ideological differences and security threats.

    Chief Justice John Roberts expressed hope for a return to “normalcy,” and the court welcomed Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman on the Supreme Court. 

    Also welcomed back, the public can now attend oral arguments in person for the first time since the COVID-19 lockdown of 2020. Justices remain under tighter security than in previous years, though barricades around the Supreme Court following last term’s ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade have been removed.

    Richard W. Garnett is the University of Notre Dame’s Paul J. Schierl/Fort Howard Corporation Professor of Law, director of the Law School’s Program on Church, State & Society and a concurrent professor of political science. He clerked for the late Chief Justice William Rehnquist during the court’s 1996 term. Garnett is co-author of “Religion and the American Constitutional Experiment.” He teaches and writes about the freedoms of speech, association, and religion and constitutional law more generally and is a leading authority on the role of religious believers and beliefs in politics and society.

    Garnett discusses the future of the Supreme Court.

    How do you respond to complaints that the Supreme Court is “broken” or “illegitimate”?

    This year’s Supreme Court term, like the last one, will involve a number of high-profile, controversial cases and, as usual, commentators’ and critics’ attention will focus almost exclusively on them. However, it is important for Americans to appreciate that the vast bulk of the court’s work involves technical legal questions, not ideological or partisan battles. Those who claim or complain that the court is “political” or even “illegitimate” simply because the justices do not always deliver their preferred policy outcomes misunderstand the court and its role in our constitutional system.  

    The court is not “broken” simply because it has recently corrected some previous errors or because a majority of the current justices were appointed by presidents of one particular party. The threat to the court today comes not from the justices’ rulings but from media coverage and political criticism that assume the court’s role is to deliver particular results.

    As the first Black woman, how will Ketanji Brown Jackson influence the Supreme Court? 

    It is too early to tell, of course. All of the justices bring their experiences, formation and background to their role; at the same time, they are all committed to deciding legal questions, as best they can, on the merits and not on the basis of their personal beliefs or preferences. Apart from her influence on the court, though, it seems very likely that her groundbreaking appointment will inspire many citizens, lawyers and law students.

    What are the most important cases you’re watching this term? 

    It is worth remembering that every case at the Supreme Court is important to someone. And, we do not yet know all of the cases the justices will consider during this term; they are likely to add several dozen more. That said, like most public law scholars, I am interested in the cases involving the use of race in college admissions and also those having to do with the role of state courts in reviewing states’ election laws.

    In addition, the justices are considering cases involving — to mention just a few — the tension between free-speech rights and antidiscrimination law, the ability of a state to regulate in-state commercial activity when that regulation has dramatic out-of-state effects, the reach of the Clean Water Act and the legality of certain Biden administration immigration policies.  

    There were several high-profile religious freedom cases during the last term. What are some other religious liberty questions that you expect to come before the court this term? 

    Last term was one of the most significant in the court’s history, in terms of religious freedom and church-state relations. So far, there are no major religious liberty cases set for argument, although there is a chance the justices will take up a New York case involving the right of a religious institution, Yeshiva University, to decline official recognition for an LGBT student group. In addition, there could be new religious freedom challenges to official vaccine mandates for public employees, public school students, etc.

    What will be the impact of the overturn of Roe, and how might that decision affect other precedents or invite new challenges to past decisions?

    The overturning of Roe v. Wade means that the question of abortion regulation is now one primarily for state legislators and courts. In many large states, with very permissive abortion laws, the Dobbs decision will not have any effect. In some others, there will be efforts to convince state courts to find Roe-type abortion rights in their own state constitutions. In still others, states will enact new regulations that, under Roe, would not have been permissible, and those new regulations will, almost certainly, be challenged. And we can expect efforts on the part of the current administration to use the powers of the executive branch to increase access to abortion and to push back on states’ pro-life policies.

    The Dobbs decision was a reminder that, among other things, all of the justices believe that, sometimes, a past decision of the court is so misguided, and so damaging, that it may and should be abandoned. Again, no justice and no commentator believes that past precedents may never be abandoned, and nearly everyone agrees that stability and predictability are important in the law. Roe v. Wade was contested and controversial from the very beginning and its reasoning was widely seen, including by people who support abortion rights as a policy matter, as weak. The court majority determined, applying familiar and fairly settled criteria, that the decision was so wrong that the law’s integrity required them to admit, and undo, their mistake. 

    How will the leak of the Dobbs opinion affect the court going forward? 

    The leak of the Dobbs draft was extremely regrettable and, if the leaker is a court employee, a gross breach of trust. Not only did the leak put some of the justices in very real danger, it undermined the judicial process and, indeed, the rule of law. It appears to have been an attempt to put non-legal pressures on the court and to undermine the court’s institutional standing.

    What more should be done to ensure the justices and their families are protected from violence or physical intimidation?

    It is unfortunate, but also unmistakably clear, that the justices require protection from people who do not respect the rule of law or the court’s role in our constitutional democracy. It is, of course, well within every citizen’s right to criticize the justices’ work, but there should be no tolerance for threats.

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    University of Notre Dame

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  • Research Links Local News, Civic Health of Communities

    Research Links Local News, Civic Health of Communities

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    Newswise — PORTLAND, Ore., Oct. 20 — A new report from the University of Oregon’s School of Journalism and Communication’s Agora Journalism Center found that Oregonians are unequally served by local news media and that some communities have few places to turn for local news. The report also describes how journalists and civic leaders are deeply worried about the state’s ability to confront its challenges at a time when the number of news outlets is declining, news audiences are shrinking and misinformation is on the rise.

    The report, “Assessing Oregon’s Local News and Information Ecosystem 2022,” is co-authored by Agora Journalism Center’s Research Director Regina Lawrence and Director Andrew DeVigal as well as two UO School of Journalism and Communication doctoral students. The research is the first effort to comprehensively count the number of legacy and start-up news outlets around Oregon and assess the state’s local news and information ecosystem. It includes an interactive map of news outlets around the state that are regularly producing original local news.

    It also involves an extensive review of research demonstrating the importance of local news to community civic health; insights from interviews with over two dozen Oregon journalists, experts and civic leaders; and recommendations for strengthening our local news ecosystem.

    “At a time when Oregon, like so many states around the country, is facing critical challenges, it’s important to recognize the irreplaceable role of local news in our state’s civic health. The decline in local news production in Oregon mirrors national trends, but Oregon can learn from initiatives being tried in other states and be a leader in reversing the decline,” Lawrence said.

    The authors say the report’s findings raise concerns about Oregon’s news and information infrastructure because research shows that areas without local news have lower rates of civic engagement, higher rates of polarization and corruption, and a diminished sense of community connection.

    “The evidence is increasingly clear that the civic health of communities is inextricably linked to the future of local news. Our analysis represents a step toward evaluating the state of the local news and civic information ecosystem in Oregon. We’re eager to collaborate with others who care about strengthening Oregonians’ access to trusted news and information based on the recommendations we outline in the report,” DeVigal said.

    The report includes examples of how many of Oregon’s legacy news outlets are finding ways to adapt, innovate and grow despite the increasingly challenging environment. It also highlights innovations happening around the country to encourage more collaboration among newsrooms to leverage limited resources, guidance and tools from journalistic support organizations, and efforts in some states to implement public funding to sustain local news.

    The full report, available on Agora Journalism Center’s website, is one example of the work the center is doing to improve the future of local news and civic health in Oregon and beyond. 

     

    ###

     

    About Agora Journalism Center

    The Agora Journalism Center at the UO School of Journalism and Communication is the University of Oregon’s forum for the future of local news and civic health in Oregon and beyond. The center was formed in 2014 with the foundational belief that the health of democracy and journalism are inextricably linked. Since then, the center has been a critical champion for the idea that professional journalism must become more participatory and collaborative with the public if journalism is to meaningfully improve communities’ information health and earn the public’s trust in local news media.

    About the University of Oregon

    The University of Oregon, established by the Oregon legislature in 1876, is a premier public research university that serves its students and the people of Oregon, the nation, and the world through the creation and transfer of knowledge in the liberal arts, the natural and social sciences, and the professions. It is designated by the Carnegie Foundation as a top-tier research university and is a member of the prestigious Association of American Universities, a group of more than 60 leading public and private research universities in the United States and Canada. The UO offers over 300 degree and certificate programs. The UO’s tradition of interdisciplinary research continues today in major centers and institutes involving hundreds of researchers, students and supporting staff members. They range from the Phil and Penny Knight Campus for Accelerating Scientific Impact to the Institute of Molecular Biology, the Institute of Neuroscience to the Center for High Energy Physics and the Oregon Humanities Center. In addition, the National Security Agency recently designated the UO a National Center of Academic Excellence in Cyber Defense Research, and the UO’s new Center for Translational Neuroscience seeks to inform public policy while translating this knowledge into clinical applications and novel therapies.

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  • UK policing: Psychological damage among officers heightened by bad working conditions – study

    UK policing: Psychological damage among officers heightened by bad working conditions – study

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    Newswise — High levels of trauma-related mental health disorders across UK police forces are partly the result of bad working conditions such as having too little time, sexual harassment, and dealing with difficult situations without support, according to a study led by the University of Cambridge. 

    However, officers who say they feel supported by colleagues, and have a sense of doing meaningful work, had around half the rates of a form of PTSD as the national average for policing staff.

    Researchers behind the study say their findings suggest that simple improvements to the working lives of police – scheduled time for support from peers and supervisors, for example – could dramatically reduce the level of psychiatric problems in UK forces. 

    Sociologists surveyed thousands of police personnel across the country in 2018 and found that 12% showed clinical symptoms of Complex Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (C-PTSD), a chronic condition in which repeated trauma exposure causes social disconnection, feelings of worthlessness, and an inability to regulate emotions.

    Complex PTSD often leads to “burnout” and substance abuse. In fact, 90% of police workers in the original survey study ‘The Job, The Life’ had experienced trauma, and one in five of these reported symptoms of either PTSD or C-PTSD.

    Now, the same team of researchers have analysed survey data provided by 12,248 serving police officers to determine the working conditions and on-the-job situations with the strongest links to Complex PTSD. The latest findings are published in the journal Policing.

    Trauma detailed by officers with probable levels of Complex PTSD based on the survey screening included dealing with fatal car accidents, rapes, homicides, suicides – including of children – and drug overdoses.  

    Exposure to physical violence made little difference to rates of C-PTSD, nor did long working hours.

    However, officers who described it as “very difficult” to take time away from the job for personal or family matters had C-PTSD rates over 50% higher than the UK-wide average for police.  

    Those who described their relationship between work and personal life as “not fitting well at all”, some 15% of police officers in the study, had twice (24%) the average policing rates of C-PTSD.  

    One officer suffering with probable C-PTSD described how what you see “impacts on your life outside of work”, offering the example of cases involving dead children that “make you anxious about your own children’s wellbeing. To a degree you lose your innocence.”    

    Another C-PTSD sufferer said “it is a given and accepted” that the job means exposure to trauma, and describes the occupational health team in their force as “brilliant” but few in number. “They are only able to put ‘sticky plasters’ on, and send the officers back out,” the officer said.

    Police officers who described never having enough time to “get the job done” had almost double the rates of C-PTSD as the average across UK forces, 22% compared to 12%, as did officers who reported experiencing sexual harassment – whether from the public or colleagues*.    

    Officers who said they could never rely on the help and support of colleagues were most likely to suffer with Complex PTSD, with over 43% displaying symptoms, but such claims were relatively rare.

    One detective with C-PTSD symptoms recounted dealing with sexual abuse cases as the sole investigating officer. “Little or no support from management. Victims hanging all their hopes and pressures on me.”

    By contrast, C-PTSD rates were just 7% among those who said they could always rely on colleagues, and just 6% among those who say they regularly get a feeling of a job well done, with researchers claiming that a sense of meaningful work may provide a “protective effect” mentally.   

    “Our research shows that the debilitating psychological misery often caused by trauma exposure isn’t an inevitable part of the difficult job of policing, it is exacerbated by poor working conditions,” said Prof Brendan Burchell, lead author from Cambridge’s Department of Sociology.     

    The team also conducted analyses beyond individual officers to compare forces, revealing a strong link between “work intensity” – those forces with more officers reporting a lack of time to effectively police – and increased rates of Complex PTSD.

    Of 18 anonymised UK police forces, the one with the highest reported time constraints among officers had C-PTSD rates of 29%, well over double the average for the overall policing population.

    “Severe austerity cuts since 2010 leading to a marked reduction in police numbers without a decrease in the demands of the job inevitably creates more time pressure for remaining officers,” said Burchell.

    “Single-crewing, shift work and fewer resources mean that time for encouraging words between colleagues or space for officers to acknowledge their traumatic experiences are few and far between.”

    One officer with probable C-PTSD described being “single crewed” at a rural location for a year, with nearest support almost an hour away. Another spoke of going from a shift team of five to working alone. “My coping strategy of being around colleagues who had been to the same fatal accident or suicide was taken away from me.”  

    Cambridge co-author Dr Jessica Miller, who is also director of research for Police Care UK, the charity that funded the research, added: “The police forces reporting the best working conditions had much lower rates of PTSD. Modest investments to improve their working conditions could see significant reductions in psychological problems among police officers.”

     

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  • Firms issue unrelated news when SEC disclosure is bad news

    Firms issue unrelated news when SEC disclosure is bad news

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    Newswise — In an apparent attempt to distract investors, firms forced to disclose bad news via mandatory Securities and Exchange Commission filings are more likely to issue a press release touting unrelated news around the time of the filing.

    Caleb Rawson, an accounting researcher at the University of Arkansas, studied thousands of so-called 8-K filings by public firms between 2005 and 2018 — filings accompanied by press releases on the same day — and found that compared to firms whose filings contained positive or neutral information, firms disclosing negative information were 7% more likely to concurrently issue a press release featuring positive, unrelated news.

    “We think this is an interesting result beyond the typical accounting research circles,” said Rawson, an assistant professor and author of the study. “It highlights how managers are strategic about disseminating information they want covered. They make it easier and more convenient for journalists to get the information they want them to get and thus bury bad news about their firm. They know news wires are easier to pay attention to than the sometimes tedious mining of regulatory filing databases.”

    SEC regulations mandate that public firms experiencing a “material event” must file a form 8-K on the SEC’s public filing database within a certain time period. These events include earnings announcements, changes in an executive or director, changes in auditor, and issuing new debt or equity. The news can be good or bad, and firms often issue news releases explaining the event.

    Rawson and his colleagues at the University of Oregon and the University of Notre Dame worked with a sample of 49,652 non-earnings-related 8-Ks and chose filings in which the firms issued a press release on the same day as the 8-K. The researchers classified the public 8-K disclosures as “good” or “bad” news and used textual analysis to identify whether the press release pertained to the same event as mentioned in the 8-K.

    One-third of the filings in their sample had an accompanying press release focused on an event or news different than the underlying event that triggered the 8-K. This finding invalidates assumptions held by many stakeholders that press releases on the same day are consistently related to the same event.

    The researchers also found that the use of concurrent, unrelated press releases impedes the market reaction to negative news by drawing investor attention away from the disclosure. The speed of price formation following negative 8-K news was significantly slower when the firm issued a concurrent unrelated press release. The researchers corroborated these results by showing that the 8-K itself was downloaded fewer times from the SEC’s EDGAR website.

    “Collectively, our findings shed light on a previously unexplored tool managers use to exploit investors’ processing capacity,” Rawson said. “There are only so many disclosures an investor can process at the same time, and when faced with multiple disclosures, it takes longer for investors to interpret what is going on. If an investor processes a disclosure, he or she will often forego the benefit of processing another one. Our findings suggest managers know this and exploit investors’ limited processing capacity for their benefit.”

    The researchers’ findings will be published in The Accounting Review.

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  • Current FDA oversight of vaping industry likely to have minimal impact

    Current FDA oversight of vaping industry likely to have minimal impact

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    Newswise — Current Food and Drug Administration (FDA) oversight of the vaping industry in the US is likely to have minimal impact, suggests an analysis of the regulator’s warning letters for marketing violations, published online in the journal Tobacco Control.

    The regulator is failing to target the key players or the products most popular with young people, the analysis suggests, with over 90% of warnings sent to small online retailers rather than leading tobacco companies, and a focus on refillable devices.

    While the prevalence of vaping among US adults remains low, at just under 4% in 2020, it is four times higher among young people.

    In 2016 the FDA announced plans to regulate the vaping industry, including a requirement for the manufacturers of e-cigarettes to obtain pre-market approval (PMTA) to ensure that their products protect public health.

    In 2017, the regulator began sending warning letters to manufacturers, retailers, and distributors for potential violations, such as advertising to young people, selling to minors, packaging or labelling that contravened regulations, and failure to apply for a PMTA.

    But little is known about who received these letters, the types of product they concerned, or details of the violations and their consequences.

    To try and find out, the authors from non-profit tobacco control organisation, Truth Initiative, assessed the content and recipients of publicly available FDA warning letters issued in 2020 and 2021. In total, the FDA issued 303 warnings:126 in 2020 and 177 up to 9 September 2021.

    The analysis revealed that in 2021, over 98% of all the targeted companies fulfilled all three roles (manufacturer, distributor and retailer).

    But nearly all the letters (97%) were sent to small online retailers, none of which was a large company with measurable market share, as evidenced by sales data.

    Companies were cited for between one and three infractions. Most involved failure to obtain a PMTA. In 2020 and 2021, respectively, 56% and 99%+ of the infractions concerned a PMTA violation.

    And more than 90% of the products cited–880 different ones in total–were flavoured refillable e-cigarette liquids, rather than the disposable vaping devices (‘pod mods’) which the evidence indicates are most popular with young people.

    Penalties ranged in severity from product detention to product seizure and fines. But loss of tobacco distributor licence and criminal charges appeared less frequently in both years than these other consequences.

    At the time of the review, most (72%) of the websites cited for 2020 infractions were still operating, as were 29% of websites cited for 2021 infractions.

    And as the authors note, it was impossible to find out how the targeted companies responded, and whether the FDA followed through with the consequences cited in the warning letters, because that information isn’t publicly available.

    “While current research estimates that online sales comprise around one-third of the marketplace, data tell us that most young people get their products from friends (32.3%), buy them from another person (21.5%), or purchase from a vape shop (22.2%),” note the authors.

    “Prioritising the products most accessed by youth which are made available from a variety of sources will be important to curb youth use,” they add.

    And they emphasise:“Strong, impactful and transparent consequences need to be in place to prevent the sale of products that violate regulations necessary in protecting the health of adult users of e-cigarettes and preventing youth use alike.”

    “The FDA should use its enforcement powers to target the manufacturing, distribution, and sellers of the tobacco products that have the greatest impact on youth and products that provide no public health benefit,” they conclude.

     

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  • Caribbean Island Nations Take Steps Towards a Sustainable Future

    Caribbean Island Nations Take Steps Towards a Sustainable Future

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    Newswise — The University of Portsmouth is working with the Caribbean Islands of Antigua & Barbuda and Trinidad & Tobago as they move towards a more sustainable future. 

    Specialist workshops with government officials are being held this week in Antigua and Trinidad, supported by researchers from the University, to introduce the Rapid Readiness Assessment for a Sustainable Blue Economy. 

    This Rapid Readiness Assessment (RRA)is a trial that will be taking place over the next few months and the results will inform the Islands in their next steps towards becoming a sustainable ‘blue’ economy.  This means the Islands will be able to effectively tap into ocean resources and support long-term economic growth, while also protecting marine and coastal ecosystems.

    The RRA will evaluate how ready the Islands national systems, structures and stakeholders are to make the transition to becoming a sustainable blue economy. Building on progress already made in each country, the RRA will help governments and stakeholders understand their current situation and identify both opportunities and gaps. 

    Antaya March from the University of Portsmouth is leading the work being done in Antigua and Barbuda. She said: “This is a critical time to bring together all of the valuable, existing work in each country and identify how to harmonise approaches and avoid duplication of efforts. A sustainable blue economy presents the opportunity for Antigua & Barbuda and Trinidad & Tobago to truly tap into the wealth of resources the ocean offers, provide equitable sharing of the benefits and reduce their economies’ over reliance on tourism and oil respectively, for a more balanced and equal operating system.”

    The assessments are being coordinated under the Commonwealth Blue Charter programme, with the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), Howell Marine Consulting and the University of Portsmouth.  They will consider factors such as leadership, laws and policies, sustainable financing, stakeholder engagement and institutional infrastructure, among others. Government officials will work with experts to review the results and outline possible next steps towards the transition. 

    Project lead, Dr Jeff Ardron from the Commonwealth Secretariat said: “Commonwealth ocean states are acutely aware of the vast ocean resources that exist within their waters, as well as the need to protect the marine environment. We are pleased to be able to support Trinidad & Tobago, together with Antigua & Barbuda in developing sustainable blue economies, and thank them for their willingness to pilot this new methodology. Both face similar challenges as small island developing states, but they also have key economic differences. The rapid readiness assessments should pinpoint gaps and opportunities for each.”

    UNEP spokesperson, Ole Vestergaard said: “During the first online discussion to familiarise stakeholders with the project, representatives from the partner governments thanked the Commonwealth, UNEP and other partners and welcomed the rapid readiness assessment process.”

    Acting Director of the Department of the Blue Economy for Antigua and Barbuda, Ms Ann-Louise Hill, added: “The sustainable blue economy promotes economic growth and improved livelihoods across a wide range of sectors, while ensuring the sustainable and responsible use of marine resources. Through a combination of workshops, information-gathering and analysis, this process will help us to identify and understand what is required to improve Antigua and Barbuda’s sustainable blue economy.”

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  • The Idea of Democracy Is Simple. Its Execution Is Complicated.

    The Idea of Democracy Is Simple. Its Execution Is Complicated.

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    In 2016, 137.5 million Americans voted in the presidential election. For some, casting their ballot wasn’t easy. Six years later, voters are the most polarized they’ve been in decades.

    How do we sustain a republic? Restore faith in the election process, says Gretchen Macht. Macht is an assistant professor of mechanical, industrial and systems engineering at the University of Rhode Island and the founding director of URI VOTES.

    Established in 2017 with the aim of using data and technological advances to help shorten voter wait times and improve voting procedures, URI VOTES takes an engineer’s approach to election science. Macht and her team of graduate and undergraduate students study voting through various lenses: voting in person versus voting by mail, how the accessibility of polling places affects persons with disabilities, strategies to avoid COVID infection in polling places, election law, allocating election resources, and the arrangement of polling place facilities, among them.

    Simply put, URI VOTES studies how a system – an election – functions and how to improve it.

    According to Macht, “People will believe the outcome of an election under two conditions: one, their person won; two, their voting experience was easy.”

    She notes some of the issues in the past presidential election were related to the length of time it took election administrators to count mail ballots. “When the counts didn’t meet voters’ expectations, they thought things were wrong with the election.”

    Recently named an election expert by the Board of MIT’s Elections Lab, Macht says, “My elections work is a calling. It is inspiring to watch democracy at work, and now it’s become a question of how can I continue to make this happen? How can I continue to help?”

     

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  • nTIDE September 2022 Jobs Report: People with disabilities continue to enter labor force, foregoing Great Resignation

    nTIDE September 2022 Jobs Report: People with disabilities continue to enter labor force, foregoing Great Resignation

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    Newswise — East Hanover, NJ – October 7, 2022 – Employment numbers were positive for people with disabilities, who continued to enter the labor force in September while labor force participation remained unchanged for people without disabilities, according to today’s National Trends in Disability Employment – Monthly Update (nTIDE), issued by Kessler Foundation and the University of New Hampshire’s Institute on Disability (UNH-IOD). nTIDE experts also noted that the employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities continued to trend above previous historic highs.

    Month-to-Month nTIDE Numbers (comparing August 2022 to September 2022)

    In the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report released today, the employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities (ages 16-64) increased from 34.6 percent in August to 34.9 percent in September (up 0.9 percent or 0.3 percentage points). For people without disabilities (ages 16-64), the employment-to-population ratio was unchanged at 74.6 percent in September (0 percent or 0 percentage points). The employment-to-population ratio, a key indicator, reflects the percentage of people who are working relative to the total population (the number of people working divided by the number of people in the total population multiplied by 100).

    “The trend in the employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities continues for the thirteenth consecutive month at levels consistently above the historic highs seen in 2008,” said John O’Neill, PhD, director of the Center for Employment and Disability Research at Kessler Foundation. “This is encouraging for now considering that the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to dampen economic growth, which will most likely curtail future hiring.”

    Findings were similar for September’s labor force participation rate. For people with disabilities (ages 16-64), the labor force participation rate increased from 37.6 percent in August to 38.0 percent in September (up 1.1 percent or 0.4 percentage points). For people without disabilities (ages 16-64), the labor force participation rate decreased slightly from 77.5 percent in August to 77.1 percent in September (down 0.5 percent or 0.4 percentage points). The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population that is working, not working, and on temporary layoff, or not working and actively looking for work.

    “As a group, people with disabilities are not partaking in the Great Resignation,” remarked Andrew Houtenville, PhD, professor of economics and the research director of the UNH-IOD. “They are entering or reentering the labor force. While this could be seen as a positive sign of a more inclusive work force, it could be signaling the need to boost household income in the face of rising prices,” explained Dr. Houtenville.

    Year-to-Year nTIDE Numbers (Comparing September 2021 to September 2022)

    The employment-to-population ratio for working-age people with disabilities increased from 32.9 percent in September 2021 to 34.9 percent in September 2022 (up 6.1 percent or 2 percentage points). For working-age people without disabilities, the employment-to-population ratio also increased from 73.1 percent in September 2021 to 74.6 percent in September 2022 (up 2.1 percent or 1.5 percentage points).

    Similarly, for people with disabilities (16-64), the labor force participation rate increased from 36.4 percent in September 2021 to 38.0 percent in September 2022 (up 4.4 percent or 1.6 percentage points). For people without disabilities (ages 16-64), the labor force participation rate also increased from 76.5 percent in September 2021 to 77.1 percent in September 2022 (up 0.8 percent or 0.6 percentage points).

    In September, among workers ages 16-64, the 5,842,000 workers with disabilities represented 3.9 percent of the total 148,000,000 workers in the U.S.

    IMPORTANT: No Lunch & Learn Webinar on October 7! Join us for our next webinar on October 21. Register now for this Special Edition webinar: “Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Supervisor Perspectives: Comparing the workplaces of 2022 and 2017,” with experts from Kessler Foundation, UNH-IOD, and SHRM Foundation. Learn first-hand about top-line findings from our latest survey: 2022 Kessler Foundation National Employment and Disability Survey: Supervisor Perspectives, which offers new insights into the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the experiences of employees with disabilities.

    NOTE: The statistics in the nTIDE are based on Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers but are not identical. They are customized by UNH to combine the statistics for men and women of working age (16 to 64). nTIDE is funded, in part, by grants from the National Institute on Disability, Independent Living and Rehabilitation Research (NIDILRR) (90RT5037) and Kessler Foundation.

    About the Institute on Disability at the University of New Hampshire

    The Institute on Disability (IOD) at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) was established in 1987 to provide a university-based focus for the improvement of knowledge, policies, and practices related to the lives of persons with disabilities and their families. For information on the NIDILRR-funded Research and Training Center on Disability Statistics, visit ResearchOnDisability.org.

    About Kessler Foundation

    Kessler Foundation, a major nonprofit organization in the field of disability, is a global leader in rehabilitation research that seeks to improve cognition, mobility, and long-term outcomes – including employment – for people with neurological disabilities caused by diseases and injuries of the brain and

    spinal cord. Kessler Foundation leads the nation in funding innovative programs that expand opportunities for employment for people with disabilities. For more information, visit KesslerFoundation.org.

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  • Most Twitter users don’t follow political elites, researchers suggest

    Most Twitter users don’t follow political elites, researchers suggest

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    Newswise — While social media platforms are the primary source of political information for a growing number of people, a majority of Twitter users do not follow either members of Congress, their president or news media, a new study suggests.

    They are much more likely to follow Tom Hanks or Katie Perry than an elected official.

    “Those users who do follow political accounts on Twitter, however, stick to insular online communities and mostly follow and share information from their political in-group,” said Magdalena Wojcieszak, lead author and professor of communication at the University of California, Davis, and the University of Amsterdam.   

    In other words, speaking to ongoing debates about so-called “echo chambers” on social media platforms, the small group of users who do follow political elites display clear political biases and engage with these elites in a very one-sided way.

    The findings come after researchers from UC Davis and New York University analyzed four years’ worth of data from a sampling of 1.5 million Twitter users.

    Researchers concluded that even though the group of social media users who display political biases in their online behaviors is small, it is nevertheless consequential. These users are much more vocal, participatory and active online, thus amplifying the general perception of unprecedented polarization.

    The study was published Friday (Sept. 30) in Science Advances.

    “In this project, we focus on national political elites due to their visibility and national-level influence on public opinion and the political process,” Wojcieszak said. Yet, despite the prominence and impact of presidents, congressmen, journalists, pundits and the news media, researchers found that only 40% of Twitter users follow one or more political “elites.” The remaining 60% follow no political actors at all.

    “Given that we analyzed over 2,500 American political elite accounts including Donald Trump, Joe Biden, prominent pundits including Rachel Maddow and Sean Hannity, and the most popular media outlets such as MSNBC and Fox News, the fact that only 23% of the representative sample of over 1.5 million users follow three of more of such elite accounts is revealing,” Wojcieszak said.

    The authors found that those users who do follow politicians, pundits and news media follow their political in-group at much higher rates than out-group elites (around 90% vs. 10%) and share tweets from in-group elites overwhelmingly more frequently than out-group tweets (at about a 13:1 ratio). And when users share out-group tweets, they tend to add negative comments to these reshares, further reinforcing ideological biases online.

    The research also reveals important ideological asymmetries: conservative users are roughly twice as likely as liberals to share in-group versus out-group content, as well as to add negative commentary to out-group shares.

    Surprising findings

    “Overall, the majority of American Twitter users are not sufficiently interested in politics to follow even a single political or media elite from our list,” Wojcieszak said. Researchers wrote that they found this surprising, since it is generally believed that Twitter users are more politically engaged than the general population.

    Given a growing radicalization in America, decreasing support for democratic norms, and rising support for political violence, concerns about political biases on social media platforms are valid, no matter how small the groups displaying those biases may be.

    “At the same time,” Wojcieszak said, “we have to remember that these political biases are far removed from the everyday online behaviors of most politically disinterested Americans, who simply don’t care and prefer to immerse themselves in entertainment or sports. Our findings should help us all keep in perspective the concerns about the so-called ‘echo chambers’ online.”

     Co-authors of the study include: Andreu Casas, Free University of Amsterdam; Xudong Yu, former doctoral student at UC Davis, now University of Amsterdam; and Jonathan Nagler and Joshua A. Tucker, New York University Center for Social Media and Politics.

    The Center for Social Media and Politics at New York University is supported by funding from the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, the Charles Koch Foundation, Craig Newmark Philanthropies, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Siegel Family Endowment, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Science Foundation.

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  • Economic Loss from U.S. Cigarette Smoking Topped Almost $900 Billion in 2020, New Study Shows

    Economic Loss from U.S. Cigarette Smoking Topped Almost $900 Billion in 2020, New Study Shows

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    EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE – 6:30 p.m., EDT – September 28, 2022

    Newswise — ATLANTA, September 28, 2022 — New findings by the American Cancer Society (ACS) found cumulative economic losses from cigarette smoking topped $891 billion in 2020, or 4.3% of the United States Gross Domestic Product. The economic loss significantly outpaced the cigarette industry’s $92 billion revenue by nearly a ten-to-one ratio. The study was published today in the journal The Lancet Public Health.

    This economic modelling study is one of the first to provide a comprehensive measure of economic loss from cigarette smoking on a state-by-state level. On average, states lost $1,100.00 per capita income annually from cigarette smoking. Kentucky ($1,674.00), West Virginia ($1,605.00) and Arkansas ($1,603.00) suffered the largest per capita income losses, while Utah ($331.00), Idaho ($680.00) and Arizona ($701.00) had the smallest per capita income losses.

    “Economic losses from cigarette smoking far outweigh any economic benefit from the tobacco industry — wages, and salaries of those employed by the industry, tax revenue, and industry profit combined,” said Dr. Nigar Nargis, senior scientific director, tobacco control research at the American Cancer Society. “As a society, we can mitigate these economic losses through coordinated and comprehensive evidence-based tobacco control measures, which encourage people to quit smoking and prevent people from starting to smoke in the first place.”

    The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services set the Healthy People 2030 goal to reduce smoking from 14% of the adult population in 2018 to 5% by 2030. According to study authors, reaching this goal through tobacco control efforts at the national, state, and local levels would considerably reduce the economic loss attributable to smoking.

    “The Healthy People 2030 goal provides an important target that will help reduce smoking and correspondingly the negative economic impact of tobacco use,” said Nargis. “In addition, hitting this target will help divert scarce resources away from treating tobacco-related illnesses towards growing market productivity and household income.”

    “The damage this industry causes on individuals’ lives and our nation’s economy is horrifying,” said Lisa Lacasse, president of the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network (ACS CAN). “It’s particularly alarming, but not surprising, to see some of the states with the highest economic loss have the weakest tobacco control policies in place. We know what works to reduce tobacco use and lessen this burden and it’s past time we get it done. Passing policies proven to reduce tobacco use including regular and significant tobacco tax increases, adequate funding for tobacco prevention and cessation programs and comprehensive smoke-free laws has a huge impact on reducing tobacco-related diseases like cancer and addressing the financial burden this product poses on state economies and the nation.”

    Dr. Ahmedin Jemal is senior author of the study. Other ACS authors include:  Dr. Samuel Asare, Zheng Xue, Dr. Anuja Majmundar, Dr. Priti Bandi, Dr. Farhad Islami, and Dr. Robin Yabroff.

    Resources from the ACS on quitting smoking can be found here.

     

                                                                                                   # # #

    About the American Cancer Society The American Cancer Society is on a mission to free the world from cancer. We invest in lifesaving research, provide 24/7 information and support, and work to ensure that individuals in every community have access to cancer prevention, detection, and treatment. For more information, visit cancer.org.

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  • The COVID pandemic is over? Not quite there, say scientists

    The COVID pandemic is over? Not quite there, say scientists

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    Newswise — In widely covered remarks during an interview with 60 Minutes correspondent Scott Pelley, President Biden claimed, “the pandemic is over.” Biden elaborated, adding, “we still have a problem with COVID, we’re still doing a lot of work on it, but the pandemic is over. If you noticed, no one’s wearing masks, everybody seems to be in pretty good shape. And so I think it’s changing, and I think this is a perfect example of it.” 

    According to the Washington Post, Biden’s remarks caught some senior officials off guard, particularly since the U.S. government has started its fall vaccination campaign. Although the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced more relaxed COVID-19 guidelines last month, the agency specifically said that the pandemic was not over in a press release issued on August 11th. Therefore, this statement has earned a rating of “Half True.”

    With the rollout of boosters of life-saving vaccines, new treatments, and a large population already infected, the U.S. is in a less vulnerable place than it was in 2020.  However, the death toll, while lower than before, is still at around 400 deaths per day from COVID-19 in the U.S. Many health experts say we’re not out of the woods yet.

    “Saying that the pandemic is over has much larger and more serious ramifications, it means we take away resources allocated by Congress and other agencies. We must be careful about saying it is over. We still need resources to continue vaccination and to address vaccine hesitancy.” says Bernadette Boden-Albala, MPH, DrPH, Founding Dean and Director of the UCI Program in Public Health.

    The end of masking restrictions and relaxing of other major guidelines has given many Americans a sense of moving on from the national health crisis that has festered for more than two years. Biden’s remarks, though perhaps an oversimplification, reflect national sentiment. However, COVID-19 is still very much evident in our U.S. population, and will likely continue for the foreseeable future. 

    “This is in great part due to human behaviors and motivations,” says Halkitis, “including subpar vaccination uptake, which continues to place all of us at risk for infection.” 

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  • The increase in funding for the IRS is not going create an army of agents that will come after you

    The increase in funding for the IRS is not going create an army of agents that will come after you

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    The Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden signed on Tuesday includes a $79 billion injection for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Many political figures and members of the media are reacting incredulously to this long-sought budget increase for the nation’s tax agency. In discussing this budget increase, Senator Chuck Grassley suggested in an interview on Fox News last week that the IRS “are they going to have a strike force that goes in with AK-15s already loaded, ready to shoot some small-business person in Iowa with these? Because I think they are going after middle class and small business people…” On August 11th, Fox News host Brian Kilmeade warned his viewers that “Joe Biden’s new army” of armed IRS agents could “hunt down and kill middle-class taxpayers that don’t pay enough.” We find these hyperbolic claims to be false. Although the IRS intends to hire more people, Treasury Department officials say not all new hires will work on enforcement and increased revenues won’t come from middle-income earners. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen directed IRS Commissioner Charles P. Rettig not to use the new funding to increase enforcement of taxpayers earning less than $400,000. The IRS is a bureau of the Treasury Department.

    Overall, IRS audits dropped by 44% between 2015 and 2019, according to a 2021 Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration report. Last year the Treasury Department had proposed a plan to hire roughly 87,000 IRS employees over the next decade if it was allocated enough money. The IRS will be releasing final numbers for its hiring plans in the coming months, according to a Treasury official. But those employees will not all be hired at the same time, they will not all be auditors and many will be replacing employees who are expected to quit or retire.

    As reported by AP…

    The IRS currently has about 80,000 employees, including clerical workers, customer service representatives, enforcement officials, and others. The agency has lost roughly 50,000 employees over the past five years due to attrition, according to the IRS. More than half of IRS employees who work in enforcement are currently eligible for retirement, said Natasha Sarin, the Treasury Department’s counselor for tax policy and implementation.

    Budget cuts, mostly demanded by Republicans, have also diminished the ranks of enforcement staff, which fell roughly 30% since 2010 despite the fact that the filing population has increased. The IRS-related money in the Inflation Reduction Act is intended to boost efforts against high-end tax evasion, Sarin said.

    Albany Law School Professor Danshera Cords shares her insight on this budget increase to the IRS…

    The Inflation Reduction Act appropriated $79 billion over 10 years to the IRS to improve three areas: taxpayer service, enforcement, and operations. Since 2012, it has been widely reported on the degree to which budget appropriations have resulted in declining service levels, aging IT, and falling staffing levels. Commissioner of the Internal Revenue Charles Rettig, an appointee of President Trump, has repeatedly sought budget increases to jump start the hiring and technology to more sophisticated audits of higher income individuals, businesses and crypto-assets. Given the aging infrastructure, computer systems that are out of date, and a filing backlog, the expenditures have long been needed.

    This appropriation is intended to help implement a plan to improve the IRS’s infrastructure in each of these areas. According to IRS data, in FY2012 the IRS had nearly 90,000 full-time employees. As a result of budget reductions, retirements, hiring freezes, the number of employees had dropped 12.9% to 78,661 in FY 2021.

    Restoring the IRS to previous staffing levels with new employees is more likely to help the average taxpayer than threaten them in any way. Moreover, hiring new enforcement staff including auditors, requires time and new personnel need training. Within its FY2021 budget, examination and collections personnel comprised more than five times the budget as investigations, consistent with prior years. New initiatives to combat fraud in higher income brackets require more sophisticated technology and better trained personnel.

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  • Relief from high gas prices is not likely to come from more drilling, as many politicians are demanding

    Relief from high gas prices is not likely to come from more drilling, as many politicians are demanding

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    U.S. consumer prices were 9.1 percent higher in June than a year earlier, the biggest annual increase in four decades. Gasoline prices are one of the major factors, as the price of gas affects commuters, the delivery of food and other goods, as well as those aching to travel this summer. The good news is that the price of gas has fallen in recent weeks by about 40 cents per gallon, the longest decline since the collapse in energy demand in early 2020, when the pandemic kept many consumers at home. Nevertheless, gas is still averaging about $4.57 per gallon (as of July 15) according to AAA. That’s a pretty steep leap up from the average of $3.15 per gallon we were paying last year. 

    So of course, gas prices and domestic energy production have become a political tool that Republicans use to condemn the policies of the Biden administration. On July 14, Ohio Republican congressman Jim Jordan tweeted, “Inflation isn’t getting better until gas prices go down. And how do you get gas prices down? Drill DOMESTICALLY. Sadly, Joe Biden and the Democrats refuse to.” The tweet was shared by thousands.

    We rate this claim as mostly false due to its inaccuracy. Policies and decisions by the Biden administration have nothing to do with the current price of gasoline. The one-two punch of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the reason for the high gas prices. The price of crude oil, which is a major factor in the price of domestic fuel, is controlled by the supply and demand of oil globally. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), the main factors impacting gasoline prices are the cost of global crude oil (61 percent), refining costs (14 percent), distribution and marketing costs (11 percent) and federal and state taxes (14 percent). In other words, when the price of a barrel of crude oil rises in the global market, we see an eventual rise in the price of gas domestically. 

     As reported by Maria Azzurra Volpe in Newsweek back in May…

    There’s no specific body or policy that regulates the oil and gas industry in the U.S. but federal, state and local governments each regulate various aspects of oil and gas operations. Who regulates what mostly depends on land ownership and whether the territory is covered by federal regulations or state laws.

    In general, according to research by the American Geosciences Institute (AGI), most drilling and production is regulated by state laws, while federal regulations mostly safeguard water and air quality, worker safety, and exploration and production on Native American and federal lands.

    In addition, there isn’t much a sitting U.S. President can do to get more oil from U.S. producers. Brittany Cronin of NPR has written an excellent article explaining how difficult it would be for U.S. producers to drill for more oil.

    U.S. crude production currently stands at 11.6 million barrels per day, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That’s below March 2020 levels, when the country was producing 13 million barrels per day of crude oil.

    Farzin Mou, vice president of intelligence at Enverus, an energy analytics company, warns that boosting supply was not easy even before the coronavirus pandemic wreaked havoc on the supply chain.

    “The point from which you drill a rig to the point that you can turn it online, it takes about six to eight months typically,” she said.

    Now add in the difficulties that oil producers are facing to procure materials like sand and steel, and it becomes clearer that producers are unlikely to provide a quick fix to current gas prices.

    In an analysis published Washington Post in March, Glenn Kessler answers the question, “Can the U.S. truly change oil prices by encouraging more drilling and allowing pipelines?”

    Not really. The United States in 2020 was the biggest oil producer in the world and also the biggest consumer — but it is just one player in a global oil market. (“Oil” includes crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, and biofuels.) Much of what happens in the market is beyond the government’s control.

    In 2021, the United States slipped to third place in oil production, behind Russia and Saudi Arabia. That’s mainly because large shale companies committed to Wall Street that they would continue to limit production and return more cash to shareholders — “an effort to win back investors who fled the industry after years of poor returns,” according to the Wall Street Journal. Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources, told investors in February: “$100 oil, $150 oil, we’re not going to change our growth rate.”

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