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Tag: financial vehicles

  • Bitcoin rallies to almost 18-month high on ETF optimism

    Bitcoin rallies to almost 18-month high on ETF optimism

    Bitcoin surged over 10% on Monday, briefly surpassing $34,500, on continued optimism that an exchange-traded fund investing directly in the cryptocurrency will soon be approved in the U.S. 

    The largest cryptocurrency
    BTCUSD,
    +6.59%

    by market cap on Monday reached as high as $34,616, the loftiest level since May 2022, according to CoinDesk data, before falling to around $33,021 by Monday evening. Other major cryptocurrencies also rose, with ether up 5.8% over the past 24 hours to $1,763.

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has repeatedly rejected bitcoin ETF applications in the past, citing risks of market manipulation. But crypto-industry participants are expecting that to change soon. 

    Read more: Bitcoin climbs above $30,000 for first time since August as hopes for ETF approval intensify

    A U.S. Appeals court on Monday issued a mandate, putting into effect its ruling in August, which overturned the SEC’s rejection of Grayscale Investments’ application to convert its Bitcoin Trust product
    GBTC
    into an ETF. The final ruling on Monday confirmed Grayscale’s win in court. 

    Meanwhile, BlackRock’s proposed bitcoin ETF has been listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation. While it doesn’t mean that the ETF is guaranteed to be approved, it shows another step closer for BlackRock to bring the fund to the market. 

    If bitcoin ETFs are approved, the crypto may see “historical price increases,” with a crypto bull market coming, according to Alex Adelman, chief executive and co-founder of Lolli. “Bitcoin ETFs will give institutional and retail investors new ways to gain exposure to bitcoin within established regulations,” Adelman said. 

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  • You just won the Powerball jackpot — what should you do next?

    You just won the Powerball jackpot — what should you do next?

    One lucky person picked the winning $1.73 billion Powerball number in California. It is a life-changing amount of money for the lucky winner or winners — but not necessarily in a good way. 

    Robert Pagliarini, author of “The Sudden Wealth Solution,” has been guiding lottery winners for decades. And he has seen plenty of people run through their winnings faster than you can say “jackpot!” Or, friends and family (and certainly office lottery pool players) can see their winnings tied up in legal battles for years, as the parties argue over who gets how much. About 70% of lottery winners lose or spend all the money in five years or less, after all. 

    “Money — especially when you’re talking about this level of money — absolutely upends people’s lives,” Pagliarini, the president of Pacifica Wealth Advisors, told MarketWatch. “You should be excited, but you should also be prepared, for sure.” 

    These are his five tips for what to do if you win the lottery or get another windfall.

    Document that the winning ticket is YOURS

    Sign your name on the winning ticket, take a picture of yourself holding the winning ticket — in fact, take a video of yourself holding the signed, winning ticket, for good measure. 

    “The first step is really all about securing the ticket … because whoever has it is the owner,” says Pagliarini. “There’s no record of you having purchased that ticket with those numbers. So having that ticket is everything.” 

    Related: Hoping to win Mega Millions? This woman hit a $112 million Mega Millions jackpot.

    You have to document that this ticket is yours, which is why Pagliarini says legal experts recommend signing it. “I would absolutely sign it myself,” he adds. 

    And then put that ticket in a safe place, like a home safe or lockbox.

    Don’t tell anyone yet!

    You may want to sing the good news from the rooftops that your financial troubles are over. Problem is, everyone else’s troubles aren’t — and Pagliarini warns that, for your own personal safety and peace of mind, it’s better not to let the world know you’ve just become a billionaire overnight — if you can help it. Unfortunately, most states make you disclose that you’ve won.

    “We’re used to seeing people with the big check on TV, which looks pretty cool — but now everybody in the entire world knows that you’re worth $1 billion. And that’s not really the kind of publicity that you want,” says Pagliarini. “You’re going to be hit up for lots of money requests as people come out of the woodwork. And that adds such a huge amount of stress when you’re in a situation that is already stressful.” 

    You generally have 180 days to collect the winnings, and you’re going to have to make some big, life-changing decisions during that time. Staying anonymous, if you can, will give you the space to make those decisions with a clear head. 

    Unfortunately, as noted, most states compel lottery winners to come forward publicly. If you have to reveal yourself and do press interviews, protect your personal information. Some past Powerball winners didn’t answer questions about any meaningful or personal significance associated with the winning numbers that they played, for example, or they refused to share details about their children. One couple simply moved out of their house and refused to speak with the media at all while they settled their affairs.

    “My rule is basically, you tell one family member, and then you immediately try to get professional help,” Pagliarini adds. Which leads us to…. 

    Get a lawyer and a financial adviser

    Bring in the professional help as soon as you can. An attorney can help you decide the best time to claim your lottery prize, and offer more advice on keeping your ticket safe. They can also help navigate your rights and protect your best interests with regards to how much you need to present yourself publicly. And they can also help you manage your safety. 

    Meanwhile, a financial adviser can assess your financial situation and help you decide whether it makes sense to take a lump sum of cash, or to collect your winnings over annual payments. A financial adviser can also help you manage your money so that you can check things off your bucket list without overspending.

    “You know you’ve won, and then typically you have about 180 days to collect the winnings,” says Pagliarini. “So you’ve got to do some serious planning.” You need all the help you can get.  

    Do you take the lump-sum payment or the annuity payment?

    Pagliarini considers staying anonymous as the first big decision a lottery winner makes. The second most important question, however, is how they collect their winnings. Do you want to take a lump sum, or do you want to take the annuity (aka, a payout over time)?

    “This is really the biggest financial decision you’ll ever make in your entire life,” he says. (Granted, it’s one that most of us will never have to make, since the odds of winning the lottery, let alone a jackpot of this size, are infinitesimal.)  

    He notes that most people take the lump-sum payment, and in some circumstances this can be a better decision. But keep in mind that if you win a $1 billion Powerball jackpot, for example, you are not getting $1 billion.

    “They send you about 60-ish percent of whatever the lump sum is,” Pagliarini notes. So for a $1 billion prize, for example, “you would get around $600 million instead of $1 billion,” he said. And after state taxes, depending on where you live, and federal taxes, that jackpot may be closer to $300 million in the end. Whereas, the annuity is given as 30 payments over 29 years, which will come closer to hitting the advertised $1 billion jackpot than lump-sum takers would get. So being patient can pay off in the long run, especially with a bigger prize like this.

    As far as taxes are concerned, Pagliarini still leans toward annuity — especially for a smaller jackpot, like if it was $1 million. That’s because you would get a lump-sum payment of about $600,000, which would put you in the highest federal and state income tax bracket (for single filers anyway) that year — versus taking an extra $30,000 a year for 30 years. “That annuity payment is probably not going to catapult you into the highest tax bracket,” he says. But for a $1 billion-plus jackpot like this, you’re going to be in the highest tax bracket whichever payout you choose, he says.

    But there’s another reason to consider going the annuity route, Pagliarini says — it can save you from yourself. 

    “The biggest advantage of the lump-sum payout is that you get most of the money up front, and then you can do whatever you want with it,” he says, such as pay off debt, invest it, buy a house, etc. “But that actually happens to be the biggest disadvantage of the lump sum,” he continues. And that’s because, if you overspend your winnings and run out of cash with your lump sum, then you are out of luck. But the annuity payments are almost like a do-over each year, he says, because you can learn from your mistakes and spend the next annual windfall more wisely. “I’ve advised most people honestly to take the annuity,” he says. “It just allows you to really make mistakes, but have them not be a total derailment.” 

    If you still can’t make up your mind, he also has a free online quiz to help you decide whether you should take a lump sum or an annuity payment

    Keep it simple when deciding where to put your new money.

    So you’ve secured your ticket, tried to keep it quiet, hired some professional help, and decided how you are going to collect your winnings. Then what do you do with all of this cash? 

    Every financial situation is different, of course, which is where a financial adviser can help you sort out the nuances to make this lottery win a real dream come true for you. But in general, Pagliarini recommends keeping things simple — even considering that this $1 billion jackpot (even whittled down after taxes) would allow you to do basically whatever you wanted to do. 

    “If I were meeting with you, we would sit down and make some serious decisions, and prioritize what you want to do,” he says, “such as paying off debt, and discussing what is on your wish list. Do you want to buy a new house or a second house, or buy your family houses?” He suggests pricing out your wish list together with your adviser to see whether you could afford to do everything you want.

    But you still want money left over to live on. “We want to make sure the money left over is generating enough income so that they could survive on that for as long as they wanted — and particularly in this case, I’m sure generations would be able to survive on this amount of money,” he says. “I would invest in index funds. I wouldn’t get esoteric with limited partnerships and venture capital. Just go for a diversified portfolio, because as soon as you start deviating from ‘simple’ you can really increase your chances of just losing it all.” 

    He notes that because lottery winnings don’t feel “earned,” the prize may not feel like “real” money — which is one of the reasons so many lottery winners don’t manage their newfound wealth well. Again, about 70% of lottery winners lose or spend all that money in five years or less. “If the money doesn’t feel earned or real, you’re going to make decisions with that money that are probably not going to be in your best interest,” he adds. “You’re giving it away more freely, spending more freely, or freely investing in things a lot riskier than you would have done if you had to sweat and earn that money.” 

    So keep it simple. “Don’t think just because you have x-millions of dollars now that you really have to get ‘sophisticated,’” he adds.

    And some bonus advice for office pools

    This is more of an extra, hindsight tip for before you and your co-workers start throwing in a buck apiece for a long-shot bid at a jackpot like this. Pagliarini warns that office pools can get “tricky,” so it’s good to sign a contract setting some ground rules before you all pool together. 

    “There’s been a lot of litigation around office pools, because maybe somebody forgets to play one week, and that’s the week everyone wins. Or someone thought they played this week, but on this particular week they didn’t,” he says. “So loosey-goosey situations can end up in court to battle it out.”

    A much simpler solution to avoid this is to have an office pool contract that spells out who is in this pool, how much they are contributing, and it also determines in advance whether the group will take the lump-sum payment or the annuity payment. 

    “Because the last thing that you want is to win $1 billion or $100 million dollars, and then to be tied up in court for four years,” says Pagliarini. “That’s no fun.”

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  • Birkenstock’s stock falls  10% in trading debut after IPO priced at lower end of range

    Birkenstock’s stock falls 10% in trading debut after IPO priced at lower end of range

    Iconic German sandal maker Birkenstock Holdings Ltd.’s stock fell 10% out of the gate in its trading debut Wednesday, signaling that investors remain cautious about new deals and the casual-footwear market remains competitive.

    The company’s initial public offering priced at $46 a share late Tuesday, a bit shy of the midpoint of its expected range. The company
    BIRK,
    -11.63%

    is trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker “BIRK.” Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley were the lead underwriters on the deal.

    The deal was expected to prove the latest test for the IPO market, which recently saw three key deals perform strongly on their first day of trade, only to fall back in subsequent sessions.

    Chip maker Arm Holdings Ltd.
    ARM,
    -1.09%

    ; Klaviyo 
    KVYO,
    -3.11%

    a digital marketing company; and Instacart, which trades as Maplebear Inc. 
    CART,
    -7.04%

    ; all enjoyed strong gains on their first day of trade but pared those in the following sessions. Instacart was quoted at $25.50 on Wednesday, well below its issue price of $30.

    Birkenstock clearly has its fans, as its customers are brand loyal, with 70% of existing U.S. consumers, for example, purchasing at least two pairs of its shoes, according to its filing documents.

    A survey found 86% of recent purchasers said they wanted to buy again, while 40% said they did not even consider another brand while buying.

    But as Kyle Rodda, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com, said the Birkenstock deal was to be a good measure of broader market sentiment and sentiment toward consumer-sensitive stocks.

    “It might tell us, too, whether cashed-up millennials like to buy the stocks of products they commonly find on the bottom shelf of their wardrobes,” he said in emailed comments.

    The valuation of around $8.6 billion also looks rich, he said. Based on the company’s latest revenue release, the stock’s price-to-sales ratio is above 6, “which is at the higher end of comparable consumer discretionary companies on Wall Street.

    “In a higher interest rate environment, these multiples may be hard to sustain in the short term, especially if consumer spending slows as expected next year as interest rate hikes bite households,” Rodda said.

    David Trainer, Chief Executive of independent equity research company New Constructs, said ahead of the deal that the valuation was far too high, noting that it was higher than peers such as Skechers USA Inc. 
    SKX,
    -0.67%
    ,
     Crocs Inc.
    CROX,
    -0.12%

     and Steve Madden Ltd. 
    SHOO,
    +0.60%
    .

    “Even more shockingly, the only footwear companies with a larger market cap are Nike Inc. 
    NKE,
    +0.80%

     and Deckers Outdoor 
    DECK,
    -0.07%
    ,
    ” he said, referring to the maker of Uggs. 

    “While Birkenstock is profitable, we think it is fair to say that the $8.7 billion valuation mark is too high, especially for a company that was valued at just $4.3 billion in early 2021. Not a whole lot has changed since then,” Trainer said in a report.

    For more, see: Birkenstock is going public: 5 things to know about the iconic German sandal maker’s IPO designs

    Trainer estimated that Birkenstock would need to generate more than $3.8 billion in annual revenue to justify its valuation, which is more than three times the $1.24 billion chalked up for all of 2022, according to its filing documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    “We don’t doubt that Birkenstock has strong brand equity and produces stylish sandals, but there is really no reason for this company to be public,” said Trainer. “We don’t think investors should expect to make any money by buying this IPO.”

    The Renaissance IPO exchange-traded fund
    IPO
    has gained 29% in the year to date, while the S&P 500
    SPX
    has gained 13%.

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  • Emerging-market stocks look poised for a comeback after a difficult decade. Here’s what U.S. investors need to know.

    Emerging-market stocks look poised for a comeback after a difficult decade. Here’s what U.S. investors need to know.

    Emerging-market stocks are coming off a tough quarter after facing down a triple threat of rising Treasury yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and a lackluster recovery in China’s economy and markets.

    But amid the pain, some see opportunity for a lasting rebound.

    The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
    EEM,
    which tracks the widely followed MSCI Emerging Markets Index, fell 4.1% during the quarter ended in September, outpacing a 3.7% decline for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    the deeply liquid U.S. benchmark. Both benchmarks endured their worst performance in a year.

    It is just the latest chapter in what has been a decade of persistent underperformance during both good times and bad. The EM ETF fell 22.4% amid the global equity-market rout in 2022, compared with a 19.4% drop for the S&P 500, FactSet data show.

    But while the selloff in Chinese stocks has dominated headlines this year, some corners of the emerging markets universe have held up surprisingly well. Greek and Mexican stocks have even outperformed U.S. stocks in dollar terms, while other major markets like Brazil and India are trailing by only a modest margin.

    This hasn’t gone unnoticed by Wall Street, where some are advising clients to consider expanding their exposure to markets once deemed too risky for many U.S. investors saving for retirement.

    In a research note shared with MarketWatch, a team of equity strategists at Goldman Sachs Group
    GS,
    +0.69%

    pointed out that emerging-market stocks excluding China had outperformed developed-market stocks excluding the U.S. so far this year.

    Meanwhile, dissatisfaction with lofty valuations in the U.S., well as the prospect of another recession potentially looming around the corner have helped to embolden portfolio managers to seek out better returns elsewhere.

    Country ETF

    Ticker

    Performance YTD (USD)

    Brazil

    EWZ +9.2%

    India

    INDA +7%

    South Korea

    EWY +4%

    Colombia

    GXG +2.5%

    Chile

    ECH -7.6%

    Mexico

    EWW +13%

    China

    MCHI -7.6%

    Indonesia

    EIDO -2%

    Saudi Arabia

    KSA +0.3%

    Greece

    GREK +22%

    MSCI Emerging Markets

    EEM +0.8%

    U.S. (S&P 500 index)

    SPX +13%

    Times are changing

    Over the past 10 years, rock-bottom interest rates helped U.S. stocks best practically all comers. During the 10 years through Monday’s close, the S&P 500 has risen 161.8% excluding dividends, while the MSCI ACWI Index
    ACWI,
    a broad index of developed- and emerging-market stocks, gained nearly 74%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Emerging markets performed pretty poorly by comparison, with the MSCI EM Index down 9.6%.

    But just because EM stocks have lagged their developed-world peers for a decade doesn’t mean they are doomed to repeat this dismal performance forever. Some pointed to the torrid gains for Japanese stocks in 2023 as an example of how a market that trailed the U.S. for decades can see its prospects suddenly brighten.

    Japan’s Nikkei 225
    NIY00,
    +0.47%

    has risen more than 21% since the start of the year in U.S. dollar terms, according to FactSet.

    To that end, a chorus of investment bank equity strategists along with big-name investors like GMO’s Jeremy Grantham have said a similar dynamic could play out in emerging markets.

    Equity strategists like Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett and Barclays Emmanuel Cau have urged clients to look beyond the U.S. for returns. According to a research report from Cau and his team, emerging markets offer “better tactical risk-reward.” Hartnett told clients that U.S. stocks appear extremely overvalued compared with the rest of the world, and that it is time to diversify away from the U.S.

    “From the perspective of relative performance, the U.S. market has been really strong the past 10 years. It wasn’t like that the prior 20 years, and at some point, a reversion will happen,” said Dina Ting, head of global index portfolio management at Franklin Templeton, during an interview with MarketWatch.

    “That is helping to make the case for international markets.”

    The bull case for emerging markets

    With the possible exception of India, emerging-market stocks generally enjoy much lower valuations compared with their counterparts in the U.S.

    That is according to a table of valuations and projected returns shared by analysts at Goldman. Many local equity markets enjoy forward price-to-earnings ratios below 10. By comparison, the S&P 500, considered the U.S. benchmark, presently enjoys a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.11, according to FactSet.

    Country

    NTM P/E

    12-month return forecast (USD)

    Brazil

    7.5

    +35%

    Mainland China

    9.4

    +23%

    Mexico

    10.7

    +27%

    India

    20

    +8%

    Colombia

    4.6

    +55%

    Egypt

    6.7

    0%

    South Korea

    11.1

    36%

    Indonesia

    13.8

    +20%

    Chile

    8

    +37%

    Saudi Arabia

    14.9

    +13%

    Total EM

    11.3

    +27%

    Developing economies have more rosy growth prospects, according to the International Monetary Fund, which released its latest batch of projections on Tuesday.

    As a group, the IMF expects developing economies to grow by 4% in 2024, compared with 1.4% for a group of advanced economies that includes the U.S.

    As Ting and other portfolio managers have pointed out, financials, producers of consumer goods and other industries are accounting for a growing share of emerging-market equity benchmarks. After so many years of being so heavily weighted toward China, and the commodity space, more diversity is seen as a welcome development.

    Although few, if any, emerging-market economies enjoy the trifecta of rule of law, deeply liquid capital markets, and institutional independence that investors take for granted in the U.S., progress has been made. Ting cited India as a great example of a country that’s recently made major strides toward becoming more friendly toward international investors.

    At the same time, paralysis in the U.S. Congress has raised concerns about potential political instability diminishing the attractiveness of the U.S. As House speakers are deposed and budget battles rage, some on Wall Street expect Moody’s Investors Service could join Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings in stripping the U.S. of its AAA credit rating, as the agency has threatened to do.

    Central banks in Mexico, Brazil and India have also had far less trouble tamping down inflation compared with the Federal Reserve, which also bodes well for future equity returns.

    “In India and other emerging markets, certainly Brazil and others, their central banks have been much further ahead than the U.S. in fighting inflation,” said Ashish Chugh, a portfolio manager of long-only and long-short global emerging market equity strategies at Loomis, Sayles & Co.

    “The U.S. government handed out free money during COVID-19, but these emerging-market countries didn’t do that. They gave out food and other stuff, but they didn’t send checks in the mail. Because of that, you didn’t have as big of an inflation problem.”

    A word of caution

    While emerging markets have matured in many ways, the sheer number of disparate economies and governments can make risk management difficult. The emerging-market space as defined by MSCI consists of two dozen countries.

    Chinese stocks are still the most heavily represented in popular EM equity indexes like the MSCI Emerging Markets index, which is roughly 30% weighted toward the world’s second-largest economy.

    Many investors in the West are already familiar with the risks of investing in China, including those emanating from China’s authoritarian system to the fallout from burgeoning geopolitical tensions with the U.S. But the potential pitfalls of investing in India or Brazil may not be quite as well understood.

    That is why Zak Smerczak, an analyst and portfolio manager specializing in global equities at Comgest, would advise newcomers interested in the sector to start by investing in only the most established companies, even if their valuations don’t look quite as attractive.

    “Being selective is the key,” he said during an interview with MarketWatch. “Making a broad investment in emerging markets right now seems risky to us, but there are pockets of opportunities and in specific companies.”

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  • Here’s the real reason the stock market is so horrid. And, yes, it’s rather spooky.

    Here’s the real reason the stock market is so horrid. And, yes, it’s rather spooky.

    Some say it’s the fear of stagflation.

    Some say it’s chaos on Capitol Hill.

    Some say it’s turmoil in the Middle East.

    But we all know the real reason the stock market is so crummy, right?

    It’s October! Of course stocks are down!

    It is a bizarre, inexplicable, and yet undeniable, fact that, throughout history, Wall Street has produced almost all of its gains during the winter months of the year — from Nov. 1 to April 30. It is an even more bizarre, inexplicable and yet undeniable fact that the rest of the world’s stock markets have done the same thing.

    The so-called summer months, meaning the half of the year from May 1 to Halloween, have generally given you bupkis or worse. 

    Around the world, over the course of centuries of recorded financial history, stock-market returns have averaged four full percentage points higher from November to April than from May to October, report researchers Ben Jacobsen at Tilburg University and Cherry Yi Zhang at Nottingham University’s Business School in China. This so-called Halloween Effect seems “remarkably robust,” they concluded, after studying the financial returns of 114 different countries going back as far as they could find reliable monthly data — starting with the stock market in 1693 London. 

    Even more extreme: In the 65 countries for which they had extensive data both about the stock market and about short-term interest rates, it’s fair to say you would have been better off selling your stocks on May 1, putting the money in the bank, then taking it out again at the end of October and buying back your stocks (ignoring fees and taxes, of course).

    “In none of the 65 countries for which we have total returns and short-term interest rates available — with the exception of Mauritius — can we reject a Sell in May effect based on our new test. Only for Mauritius do we find evidence of significantly positive excess returns during summer.”

    Italics mine. Mauritius? 

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    is now lower than it was at the end of April. So is the Russell 2000
    RUT
    index of small-cap U.S. stocks. The benchmark international stock index, the MSCI EAFE, is down about 6%. Japan’s Nikkei
    NIY00,
    +1.90%

    is slightly up, as the yen has tanked.

    The S&P 500
    SPX
    is hanging on to a small gain, but that is only because of the early summer gains of a few tech titans. The average S&P stock is down about 2.5% since the end of April — while an investment in no-risk Treasury bills is up more than 2%.

    Meanwhile, let the record show that, over the same period, according to the record keepers at MSCI, the stock market in Mauritius is up 12%.

    Booyah!

    Every time I write about this Halloween or “sell in May” effect, I make the same two points, and I make no apologies for repeating them here, because they are unavoidable.

    The first is that, every spring, after looking at this data, I am tempted to sell all my stocks at the end of April, and every year I don’t, because I think it’s absolutely ridiculous. (And someone on Wall Street who is much smarter than me usually persuades me not to.) And most years I end up kicking myself for not doing it.

    The second is to recall the old economists’ joke: “I don’t care if it works in practice! Does it work in theory?” Selling in May — or, sure, the Halloween Effect — has absolutely no reason that anyone can find for working in theory. But apparently, it works in practice — which is pretty much where we are now.

    Does this mean stocks are going to rally? It’s anyone’s guess. It would be crazy if it were that simple. But, then, the whole Halloween Effect is crazy.

    If history is any guide, now is the time to buy stocks, not sell them, because the next six months are likely to be the time when they make you money. And if history isn’t any guide, well, aren’t we all sunk anyway?

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  • Treasury yields are climbing: ‘There’s never really been such an attractive opportunity for fixed-income investments’

    Treasury yields are climbing: ‘There’s never really been such an attractive opportunity for fixed-income investments’

    While stocks get clobbered by rising bond yields, financial experts say everyday investors can roll with the punches by increasing their exposure to longer-term Treasurys and other fixed income — so long as they understand what they are doing.

    Yield — and more of it — has been a great-sounding idea for more people ever since the Federal Reserve started increasing its benchmark interest rate in March 2022.

    High-yield savings accounts, certificates of deposit and money market-mutual funds have all become alluring ways to reap rewards for parking cash. It’s easy to find these products with rates in the 4% and 5% range.

    Treasury bills, which come due within a year, have also been a yield-producing place to put cash. Yields on T-bills
    BX:TMUBMUSD06M
    of varying length are over 5%, up from roughly 4.5% around the start of the year.

    High-yield savings accounts, certificates of deposit and money market-mutual funds have all become alluring ways to reap rewards for parking cash.

    Yet yields have been inducing anxiety lately. For well over a month, the speedy ascent of yields for longer-term Treasury debt and a bond market sell-off have been knocking the stock market for a loop.

    Still, some financial experts say there’s nothing wrong with buying longer-term Treasurys for the person who wants to keep putting their cash to work. Of course, they need to understand the risks and rewards for bonds when interest rates rise and fall.

    Also see: As Treasury yields rise, Wall Street wonders what the Fed will do next. Where should you park your extra cash?

    “Moving from cash to fixed income is the right move right now,” said wealth adviser Marisa Bradbury, managing director of the Florida offices for Sigma Investment Counselors. “You can definitely lock in some decent rates we haven’t seen in a long time.”

    “Before, fixed income was so much a principal protection piece of the portfolio. Now you can actually earn a decent income on it too,” she said.

    “The upside to what’s happened is for savers,” said Matt Sommer, head of specialist consulting group at Janus Henderson Investors. “There’s never really been such an attractive opportunity for fixed income investments as there is now.”

    To be sure, there was a time when Treasury yields where far above their current mark. In the early to mid-1980s, the yields on the 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond exceeded 10%. Of course, Sommer and other financial planners are focused on the present and the future because that’s what financial planning is all about. Here’s what they are thinking:

    The ‘barbell’ approach

    When clients building their nest egg want to go all in on T-bills, Sommer is instead advising they use a “barbell” approach that adds a mix of longer-term Treasurys and fixed income too.

    “This is exactly the time investors shouldn’t hibernate on the short end of the [yield] curve,” said Richard Steinberg, chief market strategist and a principal at The Colony Group, a wealth advisory firm. He’s also advising clients to extend their duration on their Treasury and fixed income investments.

    Yields climbed again Friday morning after the stronger than expected September jobs report. The yield on the two-year Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
    rose to almost 5.1%, up from 5.023% Thursday afternoon and up from 4.26% a year ago.

    The yield on the ten-year Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    climbed to 4.86%, up from 4.715% Thursday afternoon, and up from 3.82% a year ago. The yield on the 30-year bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    reached 5.01%, up from 4.88% on Thursday and up from 3.78% a year ago – heading Friday morning for the highest level since August 2007.

    Bond yield and price always move in different directions. When interest rates rise, bond prices decrease and bond yields increase. When rates fall, prices increase and yields decrease. That’s where the note of caution comes in.

    Brace for losses if the Fed keeps increasing interest rates, said David Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, the investment research firm.

    For now, it may be a good time for bond portfolios to beef up the long side. “Part of what we are seeing in the stock market is a reallocation out of stocks and into fixed income,” he said.

    Related: Why rising Treasury yields are upsetting financial markets

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  • These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 are expected to soar after rising interest rates have pushed down valuations

    These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 are expected to soar after rising interest rates have pushed down valuations

    Two things investors can be sure about: Nothing lasts forever and the stock market always overreacts. The spiking of yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities has been breathtaking, and it has led to remarkable declines for some sectors and possible bargains for contrarian investors who can commit for the long term.

    First we will show how the sectors of the S&P 500

    have performed. Then we will look at price-to-earnings valuations for the sectors and compare them to long-term averages. Then we will screen the entire index for companies trading below their long-term forward P/E valuation averages and narrow the list to companies most favored by analysts.

    Here are total returns, with dividends reinvested, for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, with broad indexes below. The sectors are sorted by ascending total returns this year through Monday.

    Sector or index

    2023 return

    2022 return

    Return since end of 2021

    1 week return

    1 month return

    Utilities

    -18.4%

    1.6%

    -17.2%

    -11.1%

    -9.6%

    Real Estate

    -7.1%

    -26.1%

    -31.4%

    -3.0%

    -8.8%

    Consumer Staples

    -5.4%

    -0.6%

    -6.0%

    -2.2%

    -4.4%

    Healthcare

    -4.2%

    -2.0%

    -6.1%

    -1.7%

    -3.3%

    Financials

    -2.5%

    -10.5%

    -12.7%

    -2.5%

    -4.7%

    Materials

    1.3%

    -12.3%

    -11.2%

    -1.9%

    -7.0%

    Industrials

    3.5%

    -5.5%

    -2.1%

    -1.8%

    -7.3%

    Energy

    4.0%

    65.7%

    72.4%

    -1.9%

    -1.4%

    Consumer Discretionary

    27.0%

    -37.0%

    -20.0%

    -0.6%

    -5.2%

    Information Technology

    36.5%

    -28.2%

    -2.0%

    0.8%

    -5.9%

    Communication Services

    42.5%

    -39.9%

    -14.3%

    1.1%

    -1.3%

    S&P 500
    13.1%

    -18.1%

    -7.4%

    -1.1%

    -4.9%

    DJ Industrial Average
    2.5%

    -6.9%

    -4.5%

    -1.7%

    -4.0%

    Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    28.0%

    -32.5%

    -13.7%

    0.3%

    -5.1%

    Nasdaq-100 Index
    36.5%

    -32.4%

    -7.7%

    0.5%

    -4.2%

    Source: FactSet

    Returns for 2022 are also included, along with those since the end of 2021. Last year’s weakest sector, communications services, has been this year’s strongest performer. This sector includes Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL
    and Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    which have returned 52% and 155% this year, respectively, but are still down since the end of 2021. To the right are returns for the past week and month through Monday.

    On Monday, the S&P 500 Utilities sector had its worst one-day performance since 2020, with a 4.7% decline. Investors were reacting to the jump in long-term interest rates.

    Here is a link to the U.S. Treasury Department’s summary of the daily yield curve across maturities for Treasury securities.

    The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes

    jumped 10 basis points in only one day to 4.69% on Monday. A month earlier the 10-year yield was only 4.27%. Also on Monday, the yield on 20-year Treasury bonds

    rose to 5.00% from 4.92% on Friday. It was up from 4.56% a month earlier.

    Market Extra: Bond investors feel the heat as popular fixed-income ETF suffers lowest close since 2007

    The Treasury yield curve is still inverted, with 3-month T-bills

    yielding 5.62% on Monday, but that was up only slightly from a month earlier. An inverted yield curve has traditionally signaled that bond investors expect a recession within a year and a lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Demand for bonds pushes their prices down. But the reverse has happened over recent days, with the selling of longer-term Treasury securities pushing yields up rapidly.

    Another way to illustrate the phenomenon is to look at how the Federal Reserve has shifted the U.S. money supply. Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove wrote in a note to clients on Friday that “the Federal Reserve has not deviated from its policy to defeat inflation by tightening monetary policy,” as it has shrunk its balance sheet (mostly Treasury securities) to $8.1 trillion from $9 trillion in March 2022. He added: “The M2 money supply was $21.8 trillion in March 2022; today it is $20.8 trillion. You cannot get tighter than these numbers indicate.”

    Then on Tuesday, Bove illustrated the Fed’s tightening and the movement of the 10-year yield with two charts:


    Odeon Capital Group, Bloomberg

    Bove said he believes the bond market has gotten it wrong, with the inverted yield curve reflecting expectations of rate cuts next year. If he is correct, investors can expect longer-term yields to keep shooting up and a normalization of the yield curve.

    This has set up a brutal environment for utility stocks, which are typically desired by investors who are seeking dividend income. In a market in which you can receive a yield of 5.5% with little risk over the short term, and in which you can lock in a long-term yield of about 5%, why take a risk in the stock market? And if you believe that the core inflation rate of 3.7% makes a 5% yield seem paltry, keep in mind that not all investors think the same way. Many worry less about the inflation rate because large components of official inflation calculations, such as home prices and car prices, don’t affect everyone every year.

    We cannot know when this current selloff of longer-term bonds will end, or how much of an effect it will have on the stock market. But sharp declines in the stock market can set up attractive price points for investors looking to go in for the long haul.

    Screening for lower valuations and high ratings

    A combination of rising earnings estimates and price declines could shed light on potential buying opportunities, based on forward price-to-earnings ratios.

    Let’s look at the sectors again, in the same order, this time to show their forward P/E ratios, based on weighted rolling 12-month consensus estimates for earnings per share among analysts polled by FactSet:

    Sector or index

    Current P/E to 5-year average

    Current P/E to 10-year average

    Current P/E to 15-year average

    Forward P/E

    5-year average P/E

    10-year average P/E

    15-year average P/E

    Utilities

    82%

    86%

    95%

    14.99

    18.30

    17.40

    15.82

    Real Estate

    76%

    80%

    81%

    15.19

    19.86

    18.89

    18.72

    Consumer Staples

    93%

    96%

    105%

    18.61

    19.92

    19.30

    17.64

    Healthcare

    103%

    104%

    115%

    16.99

    16.46

    16.34

    14.72

    Financials

    88%

    92%

    97%

    12.90

    14.65

    14.08

    13.26

    Materials

    100%

    103%

    111%

    16.91

    16.98

    16.42

    15.27

    Industrials

    88%

    96%

    105%

    17.38

    19.84

    18.16

    16.56

    Energy

    106%

    63%

    73%

    11.78

    11.17

    18.80

    16.23

    Consumer Discretionary

    79%

    95%

    109%

    24.09

    30.41

    25.39

    22.10

    Information Technology

    109%

    130%

    146%

    24.20

    22.17

    18.55

    16.54

    Communication Services

    86%

    86%

    94%

    16.41

    19.09

    19.00

    17.43

    S&P 500
    94%

    101%

    112%

    17.94

    19.01

    17.76

    16.04

    DJ Industrial Average
    93%

    98%

    107%

    16.25

    17.49

    16.54

    15.17

    Nasdaq Composite Index
    92%

    102%

    102%

    24.62

    26.71

    24.18

    24.18

    Nasdaq-100 Index
    97%

    110%

    126%

    24.40

    25.23

    22.14

    19.43

    There is a limit to how many columns we can show in the table. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is now 17.94, compared with 16.79 at the end of 2022 and 21.53 at the end of 2021. The benchmark index’s P/E is above its 10- and 15-year average levels but below the five-year average.

    If we compare the current sector P/E numbers to 5-, 10- and 15-year averages, we can see that the current levels are below all three averages for four sectors: utilities, real estate, financials and communications services. The first three face obvious difficulties as they adjust to the rising-rate environment, while the real-estate sector reels from continuing low usage rates for office buildings, from the change in behavior brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Your own opinions, along with the pricing for some sectors, might drive some investment choices.

    A broader screen of the S&P 500 might point to companies for you to research further.

    We narrowed the S&P 500 as follows:

    • Current forward P/E below 5-, 10- and 15-year average valuations. For stocks with negative earnings-per-share estimates for the next 12 months, there is no forward P/E ratio so they were excluded. For stocks listed for less than 15 years, we required at least a 5-year average P/E for comparison. This brought the list down to 138 companies.

    • “Buy” or equivalent ratings from at least two-thirds of analysts: 41 companies.

    Here are the 20 companies that passed the screen, for which analysts’ price targets imply the highest upside potential over the next 12 months.

    There is too much data for one table, so first we will show the P/E information:

    Company

    Ticker

    Current P/E to 5-year average

    Current P/E to 10-year average

    Current P/E to 15-year average

    SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

    SEDG 89%

    N/A

    N/A

    AES Corp.

    AES 66%

    75%

    90%

    Insulet Corp.

    PODD 18%

    N/A

    N/A

    United Airlines Holdings Inc.

    UAL 42%

    50%

    N/A

    Alaska Air Group Inc.

    ALK 51%

    57%

    N/A

    Tapestry Inc.

    TPR 39%

    49%

    70%

    Albemarle Corp.

    ALB 39%

    50%

    73%

    Delta Air Lines Inc.

    DAL 60%

    63%

    21%

    Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.

    ARE 59%

    68%

    N/A

    Las Vegas Sands Corp.

    LVS 96%

    78%

    53%

    Paycom Software Inc.

    PAYC 61%

    N/A

    N/A

    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    PYPL 33%

    N/A

    N/A

    SBA Communications Corp. Class A

    SBAC 27%

    N/A

    N/A

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD 58%

    39%

    N/A

    LKQ Corp.

    LKQ 92%

    44%

    78%

    Charles Schwab Corp.

    SCHW 75%

    54%

    73%

    PulteGroup Inc.

    PHM 94%

    47%

    N/A

    Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.

    LW 71%

    N/A

    N/A

    News Corp Class A

    NWSA 93%

    73%

    N/A

    CVS Health Corp.

    CVS 75%

    61%

    67%

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company or index.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    News Corp
    NWSA
    is on the list. The company owns Dow Jones, which in turn owns MarketWatch.

    Here’s the list again, with ratings and consensus price-target information:

    Company

    Ticker

    Share “buy” ratings

    Oct. 2 price

    Consensus price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

    SEDG 74%

    $122.56

    $268.77

    119%

    AES Corp.

    AES 79%

    $14.16

    $25.60

    81%

    Insulet Corp.

    PODD 68%

    $165.04

    $279.00

    69%

    United Airlines Holdings Inc.

    UAL 71%

    $41.62

    $69.52

    67%

    Alaska Air Group Inc.

    ALK 87%

    $36.83

    $61.31

    66%

    Tapestry Inc.

    TPR 75%

    $28.58

    $46.21

    62%

    Albemarle Corp.

    ALB 81%

    $162.41

    $259.95

    60%

    Delta Air Lines Inc.

    DAL 95%

    $36.45

    $58.11

    59%

    Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.

    ARE 100%

    $98.18

    $149.45

    52%

    Las Vegas Sands Corp.

    LVS 72%

    $45.70

    $68.15

    49%

    Paycom Software Inc.

    PAYC 77%

    $260.04

    $384.89

    48%

    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    PYPL 69%

    $58.56

    $86.38

    48%

    SBA Communications Corp. Class A

    SBAC 68%

    $198.24

    $276.69

    40%

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD 74%

    $103.27

    $143.07

    39%

    LKQ Corp.

    LKQ 82%

    $49.13

    $67.13

    37%

    Charles Schwab Corp.

    SCHW 77%

    $53.55

    $72.67

    36%

    PulteGroup Inc.

    PHM 81%

    $73.22

    $98.60

    35%

    Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.

    LW 100%

    $92.23

    $123.50

    34%

    News Corp Class A

    NWSA 78%

    $20.00

    $26.42

    32%

    CVS Health Corp.

    CVS 77%

    $69.69

    $90.88

    30%

    Source: FactSet

    A year may actually be a short period for a long-term investor, but 12-month price targets are the norm for analysts working for brokerage companies.

    Don’t miss: This fund shows that industry expertise can help you make a lot of money in the stock market

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  • Tesla, Rivian, Discover, Sphere Entertainment, Nvidia, and More Stock Market Movers

    Tesla, Rivian, Discover, Sphere Entertainment, Nvidia, and More Stock Market Movers


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  • How 10-year Treasurys could produce 20% returns, according to UBS

    How 10-year Treasurys could produce 20% returns, according to UBS

    Carnage in the bond market in September could tee up an opportunity for investors to earn big returns on U.S. government debt in a year.

    Owners of 10-year Treasury
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    notes at recent yields of around 4.5% could reap up to 20% in total returns in a year if the U.S. economy stumbles into a recession, according to UBS Global Wealth Management.

    The key would be for U.S. debt to rally significantly as investors scramble for safety in the roughly $25 trillion treasury market.

    “U.S. yields remain well above long-term equilibrium levels, providing scope for them to fall as the macroeconomic outlook becomes more supportive for bonds,” a team led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a Friday client note.

    Their base-case call is for the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 3.5% in 12 months, with it easing back to 4% in an upside scenario for growth, and for the economy’s benchmark rate to tumble as low as 2.75% in a downside scenario of a U.S. recession.

    “That would translate into total returns over the period of 14% in our base case, 10% in our upside economic scenario, and 20% in our downside scenario.”

    See: The market ‘may be overpaying you’ on a 10-year Treasury, says Lloyd Blankfein

    A rally in Treasury debt could help boost funds that track the Treasury market and the broader U.S. bond sector. The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
    TLT
    was down 10.9% on the year through Friday, while the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
    AGG
    was 3% lower, according to FactSet.

    A tug of war has been developing in the Treasury market, with fear gripping investors this week as bond yields spike in the wake of signals last week from the Federal Reserve that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer than many on Wall Street anticipated.

    “Bond vigilantes” unhappy about the U.S. deficit have been demanding higher yields, while households and hedge funds have been piling into Treasury securities since the Fed began raising rates in 2022.

    Much hinges on how painful things get if rates stay high, which would ratchet up borrowing costs for households, companies and the U.S. government as the Fed works to get falling inflation down to its 2% target.

    Hedge-fund billionaire Bill Ackman this week said he thinks Treasury yields are going higher in a hurry, as part of his bet that the 30-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    has more room to climb.

    The 10-year Treasury edged lower to 4.572% on Friday, after adding almost 50 basis points in September, which helped the stock market reclaim some lost ground in a dismal month, while the 30-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.709%, according to FactSet.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    posted a 3.5% decline in September, its biggest monthly loss since February, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    fell 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    shed 5.8% for the month.

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  • Blue Apron notches triple-digit percentage gain while Nike rallies after earnings beat and boosts Foot Locker stock

    Blue Apron notches triple-digit percentage gain while Nike rallies after earnings beat and boosts Foot Locker stock

    Here are the day’s biggest movers:

    Stock gainers:

    Blue Apron Holding Inc.’s stock
    APRN,
    +133.52%

    rocketed by 134% after food-delivery start-up Wonder said it would acquire the company for $13 a share or about $103 million, just a fraction of its $2 billion in 2017 when the company went public.

    Shares of Nike
    NKE,
    +5.96%

    rallied 7% as the apparel maker, which is also part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    reported better-than-expected earnings, news that also lifted shares of European rivals including Adidas
    ADS,
    +6.22%
    .

    Foot Locker
    FL,
    +2.71%
    ,
    which sells athletic apparel, saw its stock rise by 3%.

    Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.‘s stock
    WBA,
    +6.39%

    rose 6.2% as a top gainer among the Nasdaq 100
    NDX
    as stocks reacted with gains to the latest inflation data.

    Stock decliners:

    Bionomics 
    BNOX,
    -11.87%
    ,
    whose shares jumped 242% on Thursday after reporting positive results from a mid-stage trial of a treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder, fell 8% in regular trade.

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  • Potential Bids for U.S. Steel Keep Getting Weirder

    Potential Bids for U.S. Steel Keep Getting Weirder

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  • Most long-term investors can ignore whatever the Federal Reserve does today

    Most long-term investors can ignore whatever the Federal Reserve does today

    The Federal Reserve’s moves — or lack thereof — will affect everyone. And almost no one.

    While market pundits have been trying to get their hands on the any indication of what the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy announcement will say on Wednesday, individual investors have stuck their hands in their own pockets and left them there.

    The…

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  • Block’s stock has been a laggard lately. Will management shakeup provide a needed jolt?

    Block’s stock has been a laggard lately. Will management shakeup provide a needed jolt?

    Block Inc.’s stock has been a sizable laggard this year, and now it’s losing the leader of a critical business — albeit one that hasn’t necessarily lived up to investor expectations lately.

    Alyssa Henry, the head of Block’s
    SQ,
    -2.99%

    Square merchant business, is stepping down after a long tenure with the company, and Jack Dorsey will assume her role while continuing to lead Block on the whole, the company announced in a Monday filing.

    The announcement comes as Block shares have declined 18% so far this year, while the S&P 500
    SPX
    has risen 16%. Other payment-technology stocks, including Shift4 Payments Inc.,
    FOUR,
    -0.54%

    Toast Inc.
    TOST,
    +1.34%

    and even PayPal Holdings Inc.
    PYPL,
    -1.98%

    have logged better year-to-date performances.

    Block’s stock closed at its lowest level since April 7, 2020 on Monday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It was down about 2% in after-hours trading.

    The stock is also down 82% from its all-time closing high achieved Aug. 5, 2021.

    See also: PayPal’s ‘fresh start’ isn’t enough to help its stock, analyst cautions

    The performance of the Square merchant business, which includes payment processing and other tools for sellers, has been a sore point for investors recently. Wolfe Research analyst Darrin Peller notes that Block’s second-quarter U.S. gross payment volume (GPV) was up 10% from a year earlier, a four-point spread above Visa Inc.’s
    V,
    +1.49%

    domestic growth. Historically, the spread has been in double digits, he said.

    Additionally, while the 12% overall growth in Square’s GPV “continues to imply that Square is a market-share gainer, we note that this growth spread relative to the industry has trended lower and also suggests slightly softer growth trends versus competitors like Clover,” which is part of Fiserv Inc.
    FI,
    +0.12%
    ,
    whose shares are up 20% on the year.

    “While some of Square’s success over the years should be attributed to Alyssa’s execution, the company’s more recent performance remains a concern for investors (and we suspect for management, internally),” Peller wrote.

    He pointed to “mixed” feedback from investors thus far.

    “Bulls argue that this change is positive, indicating that management is taking change seriously,” Peller said. “Further, it’s worth noting that Jack has been more receptive to cost management and other adjustments. Meanwhile, bears are citing that Alyssa was the ‘face’ of Seller and was more receptive to changes in Square’s business model compared to Jack (particularly around outsourced distribution).”

    Block, for its part, said in its filing that Henry “provided significant contributions” to the company during a tenure that spanned more than nine years.

    UBS downgraded Block shares earlier this month, in part due to concerns about the Square business. Analyst Rayna Kumar said she was concerned about a potential slowdown in gross-profit growth owing to a moderation in consumer spending.

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  • UAW strike: Ford, GM, Stellantis record profits haven’t been shared fairly with workers, Biden says

    UAW strike: Ford, GM, Stellantis record profits haven’t been shared fairly with workers, Biden says

    President Joe Biden on Friday offered his support to the United Auto Workers, as he addressed their strike aimed at the Big Three auto makers.

    Auto companies have seen record profits because of the “extraordinary skill and sacrifices” of UAW workers, Biden said in a brief speech at the White House.

    “Those record profits have not been shared fairly, in my view, with those workers,” the president added.

    “The companies have made some significant offers, but I believe they should go further to ensure record corporate profits mean record contracts for the UAW,” he also said.

    Biden gave his remarks after about 12,700 workers went on strike early Friday as their union and the Big Three automakers failed to reach an agreement before a contract expired.

    It’s a targeted strike at a Ford Motor 
    F,
    -0.08%

    plant in Michigan, a General Motors 
    GM,
    +0.86%

    plant in Missouri and a Stellantis NV 
    STLA,
    +2.18%

    plant in Ohio.

    The UAW so far has not endorsed Biden’s re-election bid, even as the AFL-CIO and other big unions have lined up behind the Democratic incumbent.

    The presidential race in 2024 could be a rematch of 2020’s contest between Biden and former President Donald Trump, who has won over some union households that historically have backed Democrats like Biden rather than Republicans.

    See: Here are the Republicans running for president

    Biden got more support than Trump from union households in the battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020, but Trump got more support from such households in Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Edison Research exit polls.

    Trump has seized on concerns that the car industry’s shift toward electric vehicles
    CARZ,
    which the Biden administration has promoted, could hurt American workers. “The all Electric Car is a disaster for both the United Auto Workers and the American Consumer,” the former president said Friday in a post on his Truth Social platform.

    On Friday, Biden said he hopes the UAW and car companies “can return to the negotiation table to forge a win-win agreement,” and he said he’s sending two administration officials to Detroit — Julie Su, the acting secretary of labor, and Gene Sperling, a senior adviser.

    GM posted a 2022 net profit of $11.04 billion, up from $10.38 billion in 2021, while Ford recorded a 2022 net profit of $7.62 billion, up from $6.43 billion in the prior year. For Stellantis, the parent company for brands such as Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep, last year’s net profit was $17.83 billion, up from $15.12 billion.

    UAW President Shawn Fain said in a statement after Biden’s speech that union members “agree with Joe Biden when he says ‘record profits mean record contracts.’” 

    Fain also said: “Working people are not afraid. You know who’s afraid? The corporate media is afraid. The White House is afraid. The companies are afraid.”

    Now read: Tesla may be the winner of the Big Three labor woes

    And see: Will the UAW strike push up car prices?

    Plus: UAW strike to have limited impact on Big Three, Fitch says

    Claudia Assis contributed.

     

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  • The economy is doing better than anyone thinks, but these troubles are in the pipeline, says Bill Ackman

    The economy is doing better than anyone thinks, but these troubles are in the pipeline, says Bill Ackman

    Stock investors are showing some hesitancy for Tuesday, with big signals on the economy coming this week via consumer prices and retail sales. Ahead of that, Apple is expected to tempt consumers with yet another new iPhone on Tuesday.

    How much should investors be worrying right now? Our call of the day from Pershing Square Capital Management manager Bill Ackman says that in the near term, we can relax a little, but it isn’t all roses.

    Read: Hedge funds have bailed on the U.S. consumer in a big way, Goldman Sachs data finds

    He told the Julia La Roche Show in an interview where he felt like he had a “crystal ball of what was going to happen,” starting in January 2020 with the COVID-19 outbreak, and that carried on through interest rates and the economy. Indeed, the manager reportedly made nearly $4 billion on a couple of pandemic-related bets.

    “I would say the crystal ball has clouded a bit in the last period. I think these are unusual economic times and perhaps we always say that, but I don’t think this is a pattern that has been repeated…or it hasn’t been for more than 100 years,” he said.

    But he remains near-term upbeat. “For two years, people have been saying that recession’s around the corner and you know we’ve had a very different view, and continue to have this view that I think people are coming around to, that the economy is actually still quite strong,” he said.

    And while those on lower-income rungs have burned through a lot of COVID savings, he thinks the economy has yet to really see impact from the big fiscal stimulus seen in recent years.

    Looking down the road though, Ackman has got a stack of concerns over the economy. He sees about a third of federal debt due to get repriced meaning that over a relatively short period of time, “interest expense will become a much bigger part of the deficit that is not going to be a contributor to the economy.”

    And while higher interest rates do help savers, ultimately that will be a big drag on the economy, he said, adding that rising inflation, mortgage rates, car payments and credit card rates, are all set to slow the economy.

    “We’re still in the midst of a war and there’s political uncertainty you know with an upcoming election,” he said. That partly explains Pershing Square’s hedge via a short position on the 30-year Treasury bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    that he laid out in a tweet in early August.

    For roughly a year, long-term Treasury yields have been trading below short-dated ones, which is known as an inverted yield curve, a phenomenon that’s often seen as a precursor to recession.

    “I don’t see inflation getting back to 2% so quickly, if at all, and if in fact we’re in a world of persistent 3% inflation, you know it doesn’t make sense to have a 4.3%, 4.25% Treasury yield,” he said.

    Other risks? Ackman remains worried about regional banks following the spring crisis, as many have big fixed-rate portfolios of assets that have gotten less and less valuable as rates rise. “I would say the commercial real estate picture has not gotten better, if anything, you know, you’re going to start seeing real defaults, particularly with office assets,” he said.

    “Regional banks have the most exposure to construction loans so they are going to be a lot of construction loans that won’t be able to repaid. There will be a lot of restructurings, so either the investors groups are gonna have to put in a lot more equity or the banks are going to start taking some losses,” he said.

    Ackman says investors also face a presidential campaign that could add some stress. The hedge-fund manager said he’s surprised there have not been “more and better alternative candidates” for the 2024 campaign over President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

    He’d like to see JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon toss his hat in the ring and believes Biden is “beatable,” by a strong candidate.

    Ackman himself said it’s “possible,” he himself could run someday, but he’s more focused on having a better investment track record over Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett — and needs some 30 years to match the Oracle of Omaha.

    Read: Here’s an easy way to make a more concentrated play on the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks

    The markets

    Stock futures
    ES00,
    -0.36%

    NQ00,
    -0.45%

    are tilting south, led by tech, with Treasury yields
    BX:TMUBMUSD02Y

    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    steady to a touch lower and the dollar
    DXY
    recovering some ground.

    Read: Watch this ‘canary in the coal mine’ for signs of trouble in markets, Neuberger Berman CIO says

    For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.

    The buzz

    Oracle shares
    ORCL,
    +0.31%

    are down 10% in premarket trading after disappointing guidance from the cloud database group.

    Apple’s
    AAPL,
    +0.66%

    big event kicks off at 1 p.m. Eastern, with the launch of the pricier iPhone 15 expected to be on the agenda.

    Hot ticket. Arm Holdings’ IPO is already 10 times oversubscribed and bankers will stop taking orders by Tuesday afternoon, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.

    Tech’s wild week: How Apple, Google, AI, Arm’s mega IPO could set the agenda for years

    Upbeat results are boosting shares of convenience-store operator Casey’s General Stores
    CASY,
    -1.02%
    .

    Packaging giant WestRock
    WRK,
    -1.48%

    and rival Smurfit Kappa
    SK3,
    -8.87%

    have announced a stock and cash tie up. WestRock shares are up 8% in premarket.

    Read: U.S. budget deficit will double this year to $2 trillion, excluding student loans

    Best of the web

    No better than gambling? Amateur investors are piling into 24-hour options.

    Demand for oil, coal, gas to peak this decade, IEA chief says

    U.S. takes on tech giant Google in landmark case.

    The chart

    Bank of America’s global fund manager survey for September sees investors still bearish, but no longer on the extreme side. Here’s the chart:

    Read: Fund managers just made their biggest shift ever into U.S. stocks — and out of emerging markets

    The tickers

    These were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern:

    Ticker

    Security name

    TSLA,
    +10.09%
    Tesla

    AMC,
    +2.23%
    AMC Entertainment

    CGC,
    +81.37%
    Canopy Growth

    NVDA,
    -0.86%
    Nvidia

    GME,
    -3.90%
    GameStop

    AAPL,
    +0.66%
    Apple

    ACB,
    +72.17%
    Aurora Cannabis

    NIO,
    +2.89%
    Nio

    MULN,
    +5.77%
    Mullen Automotive

    AMZN,
    +3.52%
    Amazon

    Random reads

    “Worst investment ever.” Brady Bunch fan buys original house for cut-price $3.2 million.

    And the house from the “Halloween” slasher films just sold for $1.8 million.

    China may ban clothes that hurt people’s feelings.

    Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

    Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch financial columnist James Rogers and economist Stephanie Kelton.

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  • How one big stock-market investor is positioning for a decade of inflation

    How one big stock-market investor is positioning for a decade of inflation

    With the threat of inflation back at the forefront for many investors, there’s one large stock-market investor positioning for it to be a decade-long phenomenon. In a note posted to the firm’s website, Chief Investment Officer William Smead of Phoenix-based Smead Capital Management, which oversees $5.83 billion in assets, said “we are loaded with inflation beneficiary stocks like oil and gas stocks and useful real estate.” The firm likes home builder D.R. Horton DHI; Simon Property Group SPG, a real estate investment trust…

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  • Airbnb, Blackstone to join S&P 500, while Deere will replace Walgreens in S&P 100

    Airbnb, Blackstone to join S&P 500, while Deere will replace Walgreens in S&P 100

    Shares of investment giant Blackstone Inc. and vacation-home rental platform Airbnb Inc. rallied after hours on Friday after both won the nod to join the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    later this month.

    The announcement, from S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that the change would take hold before the start of trading on Monday, Sept. 18. The move, among others announced Friday, will “ensure each index is more representative of its market-capitalization range,” according to a release.

    Airbnb
    ABNB,
    +0.87%

    currently has a market value of $83.98 billion, and its shares are up 64.7% so far this year. Blackstone
    BX,
    -1.77%
    ,
    currently worth $129.29 billion, has seen its stock rise 43.6% year-to-date.

    Shares of Airbnb and Blackstone were up 5.7% and 4.8%, respectively, after hours on Friday.

    Blackstone and Airbnb will replace Lincoln National Corp.
    LNC,
    +2.14%

    and Newell Brands Inc.
    NWL,
    +1.23%

    in the index, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday. In the process, Lincoln and Newell will join the S&P SmallCap 600.

    Blackstone in July said it had reached $1 trillion in assets under management, aided by a growth trajectory that it said had outpaced its private equity rivals.

    “We’ve established an unparalleled global platform of leading business lines, offering over 70 distinct investment strategies,” Chief Executive Stephen Schwarzman told analysts. “We believe our clients view us as the gold standard in alternative asset management.”

    Meanwhile, Airbnb last month said that travelers were seeking longer stays and bigger properties in pricier areas, as the rebound in travel endures despite a tidal wave of inflation last year. The company’s second-quarter results and third-quarter sales forecast topped Wall Street’s estimates.

    Meanwhile, S&P 500 member Deere & Co.
    DE,
    +1.94%

    will replace Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.
    WBA,
    -7.43%

    in the S&P 100, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday. That change also takes hold on Sept. 18. S&P Dow Jones Indices said Walgreens “is no longer representative of the megacap market space” but will stay in the S&P 500.

    Shares of Deere fell 0.2% after hours. Walgreens stock was up 0.4%.

    Don’t miss: Walgreens CEO Roz Brewer steps down with stock at decade-and-a-half low

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  • Private equity, hedge funds sue SEC over new disclosure rules

    Private equity, hedge funds sue SEC over new disclosure rules

    A consortium of groups representing the private funds industry filed a lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission Friday in an attempt to block new rules that would require private equity and hedge funds to disclose quarterly performance, fees and expenses.

    The rules, adopted last week, would also ban so-called side letters, or agreements between a fund and specific investors that give them preferential treatment, unless those arrangements are made available to all investors.

    Read more: SEC votes to require private equity and hedge funds to disclose performance and fees

    “The SEC has overstepped its statutory authority and core legislative mandate, leaving us no choice but to litigate,” said Bryan Corbett, president and CEO of the Managed Funds Association, one of the litigants in the suit.

    “The Private Fund Adviser rule will harm investors, fund managers, and markets by increasing costs, undermining competition, and reducing investment opportunities for pensions, foundations, and endowments,” he added.

    The MFA was joined by several other industry groups in filing the lawsuit, including  the National Association of Private Fund Managers, National Venture Capital Association, American Investment Council,  Alternative Investment Management Association and the Loan Syndications & Trading Association.

    An SEC spokesperson told MarketWatch that “the Commission undertakes rulemaking consistent with its authorities and laws governing the administrative process, and we will vigorously defend the challenged rule in court.”

    SEC Chair Gary Gensler argued in recent speeches and statements that the new rules are necessary to protect investors, including the pension funds and endowments that have increasingly turned to alternative investments in recent years to boost returns.

    He said in a May speech that private funds are of growing importance to the U.S. economy, noting that advisers report that they now manage $25 trillion in assets — up from $1 trillion in 1998 — surpassing the size of the U.S. banking sector.

    “The private fund industry plays an important role in each sector of the capital markets,” he said.

    “It also plays an important role for investors, such as retirement funds and endowments,” he added. “Standing behind those entities are a diverse array of teachers, firefighters, municipal workers, students, and professors.”

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  • Labor Day is just a ‘milestone’ in the marathon to get workers back to the office

    Labor Day is just a ‘milestone’ in the marathon to get workers back to the office

    The U.S. Labor Day holiday will mark another milestone in the marathon to bring workers back to the office, but it won’t be a quick fix for landlords, according to Thomas LaSalvia, head of commercial real estate economics at Moody’s Analytics.

    Employers from Facebook parent Meta
    META,
    +0.27%

    to Goldman Sachs
    GS,
    -0.26%

    recently laid out mandates for staff to return to the office more frequently, starting this fall, including the big one — the federal government.

    “A lot of companies are saying that after Labor Day, ‘We expect more out of you,” LaSalvia said, referring to days in the office. Still, office attendance, he argues, likely only stages a fuller comeback if a job or promotion is on the line.

    Amazon.com Inc.’s
    AMZN,
    +2.18%

    Chief Executive Andy Jassy has been trying to drive home the point by warning staff to return at least three days a week, or face the consequences.

    That could prove difficult, with Friday’s U.S. jobs report for August expected to show U.S. unemployment at a scant 3.5%, near the lowest levels since the late 1960s, even if hiring has been slowing. The labor market, so far, appears unfazed by the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate reaching a 22-year high.

    It has been a different story for landlords facing a roughly 19% vacancy rate nationally and piles of debt coming due, especially for owners of older Class B and C office buildings with a bleak outlook or properties in cities with wobbling business centers.

    See: San Francisco’s office market erases all gains since 2017 as prices sag nationally

    As with shopping malls, LaSalvia said it’s largely a problem of oversupply, with many office properties at risk of becoming obsolete as tenants flock to better buildings and locations staging a rebirth. The trend can be traced in leasing data since 2021, with Class A properties in central business districts (blue line) showing a big advantage over less desirable buildings in the heart of cities (orange line).

    Return to office isn’t going to save the entire office property market


    Moody’s Analytics

    “Little by little, we are finding the office isn’t dead,” LaSalvia said, but he also sees more promise in neighborhoods with a new purpose, those catering to hybrid work and communities that bring people together.

    Another way to look at the trend is through rents. Manhattan’s Penn Station submarket, with its estimated $13 billion overhaul and neighboring Hudson Yards development, has seen asking rents jump 32% to $74.87 a square foot in the second quarter since the fourth quarter of 2019, according to Moody’s Analytics. That compares with a 2% bump in asking rents in downtown New York City to $61.39 a square foot for the same period.

    The push for a return to the office also doesn’t mean a repeat of prepandemic ways. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that part-time remote work in the U.S. has stabilized around 20%-25%, in a late August report, but that’s still up from 2.6% before the 2020 lockdowns.

    Furthermore, the persistence of remote work will likely add another 171 million square feet of vacant U.S. office space through 2029, a period that also will see tenants’ long-term leases expire and many companies opting for less space. The additional vacancies would roughly translate to 57% of Los Angeles roughly 300 million square feet of office space sitting empty.

    “The fundamental reason why we had offices in the first place have not completely disintegrated,” LaSalvia said. “But for some of those Class B and C offices, the writing was on the wall before the pandemic.”

    U.S. stocks were mixed Thursday, but headed for losses in a tough August for stocks, with the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    off about 1.5% for the month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    2.1% lower and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    down 2% in August, according to FactSet.

    Related: Some employers mandate etiquette classes as returning office workers walk barefoot, burp loudly and microwave fish

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