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Tag: Financial services

  • New-home sales drop in October to much lower level than expected

    New-home sales drop in October to much lower level than expected

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    The numbers: U.S. new-home sales fell 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 in October, from a revised 719,000 in September, the government reported Monday. 

    Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast new-home sales to occur at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 725,000 in October.

    The data are often revised sharply….

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  • Stock market today: Asian shares mostly decline, as investors watch spending, inflation

    Stock market today: Asian shares mostly decline, as investors watch spending, inflation

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    TOKYO — Asian shares retreated Monday as investors awaited updates on consumer spending and inflation in the U.S. and other nations.

    Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 dipped 0.5% to finish at 33,447.67 after the producer price index in October came in a little higher than expected, at 2.3%.

    In China, industrial profits declined 7.8% in January-October compared with the year before. They rose 2.7% in October for a third monthly year-on-year increase, suggesting weakness in the economy. Industrial profits rose 11.9% year-on-year in September and 17.2% in August.

    “While conditions have been improving, it also indicates that recovery has been slow. From the series of economic data lately, recovery momentum has also been on-and-off,” Yeap Jun Rong, a market analyst at IG, said in a commentary.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.3% to 17,513.01, while the Shanghai Composite lost 0.4% to 3,028.89.

    Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged down 0.8% to 6,987.60. South Korea’s Kospi shed less than 0.1% to 2,495.86.

    Several central banks in the region are holding policy meetings this week, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Korea and Bank of Thailand. While analysts expect them to stand pat on policy, attention remains relatively high, given concerns about inflation.

    Wall Street ended last week mixed with a half-day trading session that capped a fourth straight winning week. The holiday shopping season kicked off with Black Friday amid concerns that spending may slow under pressure from dwindling savings, rising credit card debt and inflation.

    The S&P 500 inched up 0.1% on Friday, at 4,559.34, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3% to 35,390.15. The Nasdaq composite slipped 0.1% to 14,250.85, as gains in health care and financial and energy sectors tempered losses in technology stocks.

    Trading was muted as markets reopened following the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Gains in health care, financial, energy and other sectors helped temper losses in technology and communication services stocks.

    Chipmaker Nvidia and Google parent Alphabet were among the biggest decliners, losing 1.9% and 1.3%, respectively. Among the big gainers in the S&P 500 were CF Industries, which rose 2.6%, and Best Buy, which closed 2.2% higher.

    The major stock indexes’ latest weekly gains reflect a turnaround in the market’s sentiment in November following a three-month slide. Traders have grown cautiously optimistic that inflation has cooled enough for the Federal Reserve to finally be done with its market-crunching hikes to interest rates.

    The Fed will get another big update this week when the government releases its October report for a key inflation measure tracked by the central bank.

    In other trading early Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which influences interest rates on mortgages and other loans, rose to 4.50% from 4.47%.

    Benchmark U.S. crude declined 57 cents to $74.97 barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It fell $1.56 to $75.54 a barrel on Friday.

    Brent crude, the international standard, fell 60 cents to $79.88 a barrel.

    The U.S. dollar inched down to 148.97 Japanese yen from 149.53 yen. The euro cost $1.0955, up from $1.0944.

    ___

    Yuri Kageyama is on X, formerly Twitter https://twitter.com/yurikageyama

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  • Stock market today: Asian shares mostly decline, as investors watch spending, inflation

    Stock market today: Asian shares mostly decline, as investors watch spending, inflation

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    TOKYO — Asian shares retreated Monday as investors awaited updates on consumer spending and inflation in the U.S. and other nations.

    Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 dipped 0.4% in morning trading to 33,479.71 after the producer price index in October came in a little higher than expected, at 2.3%.

    In China, industrial profits declined less than last year, at minus 7.8% in October.

    “While conditions have been improving, it also indicates that recovery has been slow. From the series of economic data lately, recovery momentum has also been on-and-off,” Yeap Jun Rong, a market analyst at IG, said in a commentary.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.0% to 17,382.28, while the Shanghai Composite lost 0.8% to 3,017.79.

    Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged down 0.4% to 7,009.50. South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.2% to 2,491.20.

    Several central banks in the region are holding policy meetings this week, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Korea and Bank of Thailand. While analysts expect them to stand pat on policy, attention remains relatively high, given concerns about inflation.

    Wall Street ended last week mixed with a half-day trading session that capped a fourth straight winning week. The holiday shopping season kicked off with Black Friday amid concerns that spending may slow under pressure from dwindling savings, rising credit card debt and inflation.

    The S&P 500 inched up 0.1% on Friday, at 4,559.34, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3% to 35,390.15. The Nasdaq composite slipped 0.1% to 14,250.85, as gains in health care and financial and energy sectors tempered losses in technology stocks.

    Trading was muted as markets reopened following the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Gains in health care, financial, energy and other sectors helped temper losses in technology and communication services stocks.

    Chipmaker Nvidia and Google parent Alphabet were among the biggest decliners, losing 1.9% and 1.3%, respectively. Among the big gainers in the S&P 500 were CF Industries, which rose 2.6%, and Best Buy, which closed 2.2% higher.

    The major stock indexes’ latest weekly gains reflect a turnaround in the market’s sentiment in November following a three-month slide. Traders have grown cautiously optimistic that inflation has cooled enough for the Federal Reserve to finally be done with its market-crunching hikes to interest rates.

    The Fed will get another big update this week when the government releases its October report for a key inflation measure tracked by the central bank.

    In other trading early Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which influences interest rates on mortgages and other loans, rose to 4.50% from 4.47%.

    Benchmark U.S. crude declined 66 cents to $74.88 barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It fell $1.56 to $75.54 a barrel on Friday.

    Brent crude, the international standard, fell 62 cents to $79.86 a barrel.

    The U.S. dollar inched down to 148.96 Japanese yen from 149.53 yen. The euro cost $1.0945, little changed from $1.0944.

    ___

    Yuri Kageyama is on X, formerly Twitter https://twitter.com/yurikageyama

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  • Stock market is gaining momentum. What that means for December and beyond.

    Stock market is gaining momentum. What that means for December and beyond.

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    Barring a sudden bout of post-Thanksgiving indigestion, the U.S. stock market looks poised to log a healthy November rally. And while there are certainly no guarantees, history says momentum is likely to beget momentum into year-end.

    “I think the market is set up for a strong final six weeks of 2023 and I would expect the market to build on that momentum into year-end,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street, in a phone interview.

    Drivers…

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  • Congress returns to face big to-do list: Israel and Ukraine aid, possible border or tax deals, and more

    Congress returns to face big to-do list: Israel and Ukraine aid, possible border or tax deals, and more

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    Both the House and Senate are due to get back to work this week after their Thanksgiving break, and lawmakers have a lot on their plates.

    A divided Washington put off the threat of a partial government shutdown until mid-January by enacting a short-term spending bill in mid-November, but the measure didn’t address President Joe Biden’s $106 billion funding request that includes wartime aid for Israel and Ukraine.

    So…

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  • Turned down for a loan, business owners look to family and even crowdsourcing to get money to grow

    Turned down for a loan, business owners look to family and even crowdsourcing to get money to grow

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    NEW YORK — NEW YORK (AP) —

    Among the many challenges small businesses face as they try to grow these days, getting a loan is right near the top.

    Banks big and small have tightened lending standards as the Federal Reserve hiked up interest rates the past two years. The collapse of three regional banks this spring and the possibility of stricter regulations have likely made some banks more cautious as well.

    So, business owners are having to make sacrifices, from turning to crowdsourcing instead of lenders, borrowing from family or friends, or simply forgoing expansion plans that would have been funded by more capital.

    According to the Federal Reserve, which surveys senior bank loan officers quarterly, about 49% of banks said they had tightened lending standards for small firms – those with less than $50 million in annual sales – during the July to September quarter, up from 22% in the same period last year. Loan officers cited an increasingly uncertain economic outlook as one reason for the tightening.

    Biz2Credit data tells a similar story. Back in June 2022, big banks approved 15.4% of small business loan applications. The figure has dipped every month since and was at 13% in October. At smaller banks, about one in five funding requests were approved – far from the 50% approval rate pre-pandemic.

    Meanwhile, interest rates have jumped. The average interest rate paid on short term loans was 9.1% in October, up sharply from 6.7% in the same period a year ago, and 4.9% the year before that, according to the National Federation of Independent Business.

    All those factors have added up to a grim environment if you’re a small business seeking a loan.

    Cheyenne Smith in Salt Lake City, Utah, founded Dakota Ridge, which makes cowboy rain boots for kids, in 2021 with savings from a previous corporate job and money borrowed from her 401(k) retirement plan, about $80,000 total.

    Smith quickly realized she needed more money up front than she’d originally thought to build up her inventory. Without two years of tax returns, however, she didn’t qualify for many small business loans. Online lenders were quick to offer their services, but the terms were too strict, requiring weekly repayments or interest rates up to 40%. Online lenders approve more loans than traditional banks, but often at higher interest rates.

    “It was a nightmare to try and access funding,” she said. With no other options, she borrowed about $30,000 from her mother at the end of 2022.

    “A lot of people don’t have that opportunity,” she said. “And I’m very lucky, and I’m aware of that privilege to have that opportunity, not only for the cash up front from my 401(k), but also to have family members that are willing to invest.”

    Higher interest rates have proven nearly insurmountable for Shantell Chambliss. She owns Nonprofitability, a consulting firm in Richmond, Va., that works with nonprofits and faith-based organizations to grow their business.

    She started her business in 2017 and grew it without outside financing. This May, Chambliss came up with an expansion plan for her business that would require hiring more people and investing in technology. She realized she needed a loan to get the plan going.

    Her goal was to get a $25,000 loan. Her bank, Capital One, denied her the loan but did give her a small increase for her credit card that provided $3,000 in available credit. “Not nearly enough,” she said. Her personal bank similarly turned her down.

    Chambliss tried to go the non-traditional route and was approved for a larger loan of $11,500 at an online lender, but the interest rates were so high it didn’t make sense to accept, she said. The lowest rate she was quoted was 27%.

    “For a small business that is not only intimidating, it’s almost impossible,” she said.

    For now, she’s paused the expansion plan. She’s putting plans in place for a crowdfunding effort in January, calling it the “only logical next step.”

    “We’re going to keep working, but right now it really just feels like being a hamster in a wheel,” she said. “And I don’t feel like anyone is coming to save us.”

    Some small businesses are putting off projects because of the environment. Nate Hodge co-founded Raaka Chocolate in 2010 by seeking funding from long-term investors. He’s relied on them for working capital investments since.

    But post-pandemic, Hodge and his partner started seeking funding from banks and online lenders instead of their investors to do some remodeling. He was shocked by the lending environment. From online lenders, he was seeing interest rates of 19%-plus.

    He turned back to his investors for private loans instead. Still, the loans weren’t enough for some renovation plans they had for their warehouse space, including putting in flooring and removing some walls.

    “We had to put that off because we couldn’t find good financing,” he said. “It’s definitely frustrating. It feels kind of predatory the way that some of these (online) lenders present loans to small businesses.”

    Jen Rose started her business, Bee Cups, which sells small garden installations that capture water to feed pollinators, in Dallas, Texas, out of her garage during the pandemic.

    She has found loans, but it has been a struggle – and she’s seen first-hand the effect of rising rates. Seeking a $350,000 loan to buy a warehouse after she outgrew her garage, she was turned down by two banks, despite having enough money for a down payment.

    She sought recommendations for other banks to try, and had success at Comerica Bank, inking a deal with an enviable 3.8% interest rate at the end of 2021.

    In August she closed on a second loan with Comerica for about $400,000 for an adjoining property. But this time, credit rates had tightened and the interest rate nearly doubled to 7%.

    Still, Rose said she felt like she didn’t have much choice in taking the loan, particularly since the rate is still lower than the average.

    “If I could have waited a little while longer, I would have,” she said. “(But) the space came available and it was kind of like I needed to grab it if it was ever going to happen.”

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  • Crypto bulls eye $40,000 as bitcoin’s next level as the coin refreshes yearly high

    Crypto bulls eye $40,000 as bitcoin’s next level as the coin refreshes yearly high

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    Crypto bulls are eyeing $40,000 as bitcoin’s next level, with the recent rally sending the crypto to a new high for the year, as the market shakes off the news that Binance’s co-founder Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty on Tuesday to criminal charges related to violating U.S. anti-money-laundering laws, and stepped down as head of the company.

    The largest crypto BTCUSD on Friday rose to as high as $38,294, the loftiest level since May 2022, according to CoinDesk data. It climbed over 3% over the past 24 hours. 

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  • Here’s how the stock market has performed on Black Friday going back to 1990

    Here’s how the stock market has performed on Black Friday going back to 1990

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    Major U.S. stock indexes were struggling to make any big moves on Friday as traders returned from the Thanksgiving Day holiday, in line with holiday-shortened Black Friday trading sessions over more than three decades.

    U.S. stock exchanges are due to close at 1 p.m. Eastern time Friday, three hours earlier than usual. As the table below from Dow Jones Market Data shows, trading on the day after Thanksgiving has not tended to produce big moves.

    Not…

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  • Why wealthy investors put $125 billion into this new type of private-equity fund last year

    Why wealthy investors put $125 billion into this new type of private-equity fund last year

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    Private-equity funds aimed at wealthy individuals continue to draw in fresh capital as the universe of alternative investments grows beyond its roots serving endowments, pension funds and other institutions, according to industry data.

    Registered funds that take investments from individuals and smaller institutions rose by about $125 billion in 2022 from the previous year to total assets under management (AUM) of $425 billion, according to data from private-equity investor and data provider Hamilton Lane Inc. HLNE.

    The…

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  • Russian consumers feel themselves in a tight spot as high inflation persists

    Russian consumers feel themselves in a tight spot as high inflation persists

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    MOSCOW — The shelves at Moscow supermarkets are full of fruit and vegetables, cheese and meat. But many of the shoppers look at the selection with dismay as inflation makes their wallets feel empty.

    Russia’s Central Bank has raised its key lending rate four times this year to try to get inflation under control and stabilize the ruble’s exchange rate as the economy weathers the effects of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine and the Western sanctions imposed as a consequence.

    The last time it raised the rate — to 15%, doubled that from the beginning of the year — the bank said it was concerned about prices that were increasing at an annualized pace of about 12%. The bank now forecasts inflation for the full year, as well as next year, to be about 7.5%.

    Although that rate is high, it may be an understatement.

    “If we talk in percentage terms, then, probably, (prices) increased by 25%. This is meat, staple products — dairy produce, fruits, vegetables, sausages. My husband can’t live without sausage! Sometimes I’m just amazed at price spikes,” said Roxana Gheltkova, a shopper in a Moscow supermarket.

    Asked if her income as a pensioner was enough to keep food on the table, customer Lilya Tsarkova said: “No, of course not. I get help from my children.”

    Without their assistance, “I don’t know how to pay rent and food,” the 70-year-old said.

    Figures from the state statistical service Rosstat released on Nov. 1 show a huge spike in prices for some foods compared with 2022 — 74% for cabbage, 72% for oranges and 47% for cucumbers.

    The Russian parliament has approved a 2024-2026 budget that earmarks a record amount for defense spending. Maxim Blant, a Russian economy analyst based in Latvia, sees that as an indication that prices will continue to rise sharply.

    “It is simply impossible to solve the issue of inflation in conditions … when the military-industrial complex receives unlimited funding, when everything they ask for is given to them, when the share of this military-industrial complex in the economy grows at a very rapid pace,” he told The Associated Press.

    The central bank’s rate hikes have slightly cooled the ruble’s exchange rate slide — the rate is now about 88 to the U.S. dollar from over 100 earlier. But that’s still far higher than in the summer of 2022, when it was about 60 to the dollar.

    That keeps the cost of imports high, even as import possibilities shrink due to Western sanctions.

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  • Turkey’s central bank hikes interest rates again as it tries to tame eye-watering inflation

    Turkey’s central bank hikes interest rates again as it tries to tame eye-watering inflation

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    Turkey’s central bank has delivered another huge interest rate hike as it tries to curb double-digit inflation that has left households struggling to afford food and other basic goods

    ByThe Associated Press

    November 23, 2023, 6:33 AM

    A man purchases food from a street vendor at Kadikoy ferry terminal in Istanbul, Thursday, Nov. 16, 2023. Turkey’s central bank delivered another huge interest rate hike on Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023 continuing its effort to curb double-digit inflation that has left households struggling to afford food and other basic goods. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)

    The Associated Press

    ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey’s central bank delivered another huge interest rate hike on Thursday as it tries to curb double-digit inflation that has left households struggling to afford food and other basic goods.

    The bank pushed its policy rate up by 5 percentage points, to 40%, marking its sixth big interest rate hike in a row focused on beating down inflation that hit an eye-watering 61.36% last month.

    However, the bank said its rate hikes would soon end.

    “The current level of monetary tightness is significantly close to the level required to establish the disinflation course,” the bank said. “Accordingly, the pace of monetary tightening will slow down and the tightening cycle will be completed in a short period of time.”

    President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long been a proponent of an unorthodox policy of cutting interest rates to fight inflation and had fired central bank governors who resisted his rate-slashing policies.

    That runs counter to traditional economic thinking, and many blamed Erdogan’s unusual methods for economic turmoil that has included a currency crisis and an increasingly high cost of living.

    Other central banks around the world have raised interest rates rapidly to target spikes in consumer prices tied to the rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic and then Russia’s war in Ukraine.

    Following Erdogan’s reelection in May, he appointed a new economic team, which has quickly moved toward reversing his previous policy of keeping interest rates low.

    The team includes former Merrill Lynch banker Mehmet Simsek, who returned as finance minister, a post he held until 2018, and Hafize Gaye Erkan, a former U.S.-based bank executive, who took over as central bank governor in June.

    Under Erkan’s tenure, the central bank has hiked its main interest rate from 8.5% to 40%.

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  • Why stocks’ Thanksgiving-week performance is important to watch

    Why stocks’ Thanksgiving-week performance is important to watch

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    While the U.S. trading week is shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday, it’s important to watch the stock market’s performance to see if the rally of the past month can be sustained through the year-end. 

    Stocks have rallied in November so far, with the S&P 500 index SPX logging a 8.6% gain month-to-date, while it’s up 18.6% so far this year, according to FactSet data. 

    “If…

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  • SEC charges crypto platform Kraken with operating as an unregistered exchange

    SEC charges crypto platform Kraken with operating as an unregistered exchange

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    The Securities and Exchange Commission charged cryptocurrency trading platform Kraken with operating as an unregistered securities exchange.

    The charges are the latest effort by regulators to crack down on crypto companies, some of which the SEC views as illegally selling securities without registering with the commission.

    Kraken didn’t immediately…

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  • Stock market surges toward 2023 high. Will holiday shoppers put it over the top?

    Stock market surges toward 2023 high. Will holiday shoppers put it over the top?

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    U.S. stocks have jumped back near to their summertime highs, a big rebound as investors enter the holiday season with Black Friday just days away.

    The shopping frenzy expected on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, kicks off a spending spree for the holidays that could help buoy stocks after their surge this month.

    “With consumers employed…

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  • Foreign investors may have bailed out of Treasurys at exactly the wrong time

    Foreign investors may have bailed out of Treasurys at exactly the wrong time

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    Foreign investors dumped U.S. Treasury debt in September for the first time since May 2021, but it’s possible these sellers are already regretting it, according to one prominent Wall Street economist.

    The latest installment of the Treasury Department’s monthly reports on buying and selling of U.S. securities by foreign investors — by both central banks and other official parties and private institutions and individuals — showed they sold $1.7 billion in Treasurys on a net basis. That marked the first time foreign investors…

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  • How a second set of Trump tax cuts could jack up the national debt

    How a second set of Trump tax cuts could jack up the national debt

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    If Donald Trump were to be elected president in 2024, what would it mean for U.S. tax policy and the national debt?

    There are growing expectations that he could deliver another round of big tax cuts, with the reductions coming right as those enacted in 2017’s Tax Cut and Jobs Act are due to expire in 2025.

    “If Republicans hold their House…

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  • Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia—What Tech Stocks Hedge Funds Are Buying and Selling

    Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia—What Tech Stocks Hedge Funds Are Buying and Selling

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    It’s filing season for a string of major hedge funds, and big tech names like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia were among the most-traded equities in the third quarter.

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  • Soros snaps up tech stocks in Q3, but dumps some of the biggest names

    Soros snaps up tech stocks in Q3, but dumps some of the biggest names

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    Soros Fund Management, the investment firm founded by billionaire George Soros, took new positions or bulked up on IPOs and a number of tech names during the third quarter.

    But it sold off small holdings of some of the largest — like Nvidia Corp. and Microsoft Corp. — as well as electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive.

    According to a filing on Tuesday, the firm during the third quarter bought up 325,000 shares of chip designer Arm Holdings
    ARM,
    +3.37%
    ,
    which went public in September, for $17.4 million. It also bought smaller stakes in recent IPOs such as Maplebear Inc.
    CART,
    +1.25%
    ,
    better known as grocery-delivery platform Instacart, and digital-marketing firm Klaviyo Inc.
    KVYO,
    +6.90%
    .
    Those purchases were disclosed as investors remain cautious on new IPOs.

    Elsewhere, the fund took a new position, of around 41,000 shares, in Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +1.43%
    .
    And it did so as well for Datadog Inc.
    DDOG,
    +4.58%
    ,
    buying 62,000 shares during the quarter. It also bought up 574,962 shares of Splunk, and took fresh positions in Snowflake Inc.
    SNOW,
    +4.51%

    and Taiwan Semiconductor
    TSM,
    +2.58%
    .

    Soros also packed on more to some of its other tech holdings. It added 125,000 shares to its stake in Uber Technologies Inc.
    UBER,
    +3.14%
    ,
    boosting its position by 16.6% for a total of 878,955 shares. It also bought 42,000 more shares of another gig-economy player, DoorDash Inc.
    DASH,
    +4.37%
    ,
    a 30.9% increase for 178,075 shares.

    While Soros boosted its stake in General Motors
    GM,
    +4.83%
    ,
    it sold off its 4.2 million shares in Rivian
    RIVN,
    +4.39%
    .
    The firm also sold off its positions — of roughly 10,000 shares apiece — in tech giants Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +0.98%

    and Nvidia
    NVDA,
    +2.13%
    .

    Soros Fund Management also sold off its stake in Walt Disney Co.
    DIS,
    +1.82%
    .

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  • How financial conditions might play into Fed’s thinking after October’s CPI

    How financial conditions might play into Fed’s thinking after October’s CPI

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    Financial markets were jubilant over Tuesday’s data showing that U.S. consumer prices eased by more than expected in October, with Treasury yields plummeting on expectations the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates further and might even lower borrowing costs.

    In a nutshell, financial conditions suddenly became looser, with the benchmark 10-year yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    at 4.46% in New York afternoon trading or down by more than half a percentage point from its October peak. Right now, conditions are “much more accommodative” than when Fed officials first suggested higher long-term yields could do the work of tighter monetary policy and take the place of a rate hike, according to Will Compernolle, a macro strategist for FHN Financial in New York.

    The jury is out on how much a continuation of looser financial conditions will matter to central bankers. At one point in Tuesday’s session, both the 10-year yield and the policy-sensitive 2-year yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
    were heading for their biggest one-day declines in more than six months as traders revved up expectations for at least four Fed rate cuts in 2024.

    Tuesday’s October CPI inflation report “will be very welcome to the Fed, though it will inevitably make the Fed’s challenge of restraining market optimism and financial conditions more difficult too,” according to New York-based advisory firm Evercore ISI.

    In a note, Evercore’s Vice Chairman Krishna Guha and others wrote that “the Fed’s challenge is that the market sees this and is trying to jump to the endgame, risking a larger/sooner easing in financial conditions than the Fed itself would like to see under prudent upside inflation risk management principles. So expect Fed officials to maintain a very cautious and relatively hawkish tone.”

    Indeed, there’s plenty of reasons to remain careful about reading too much into one report.

    After Tuesday’s data, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he’s not convinced inflation is on a clear path toward 2% despite recent progress in curbing price pressures.

    Some economists also said October’s CPI report isn’t the game changer that markets think it is. And FHN’s Compernolle said that if the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), shows “horizontal momentum” when the October data is released later this month, there could be some on the Federal Open Market Committee “who feel the lower bond yields necessitate a higher fed funds rate.”

    Read: Economists in hawkish camp don’t surrender in wake of October consumer-inflation print

    At Hirtle Callaghan & Co., a West Conshohocken, Pa.-based firm which manages $18.5 billion in assets, Brad Conger, deputy chief investment officer, said that October’s CPI readings validate the Fed’s “wait-and-see” approach and that “it will take a rather long series of this order of magnitude to give them confidence to ease policy.”

    Meanwhile, “we worry that the recent easing of financial conditions and energy prices could easily start to counter the restraint,” Conger wrote in an email on Tuesday.

    In addition to a broad-based decline in Treasury yields, all three major U.S. stock indexes
    DJIA

    SPX

    COMP
    were higher as of Tuesday afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged almost 500 points on a buying frenzy as investors also cheered Tuesday’s low “supercore” inflation figure that acts as a proxy for labor costs.

    Just last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed is wary of “head fakes” from inflation, or temporary improvements that only reverse over time.

    If Tuesday’s CPI data for October isn’t a “head fake,” “the Fed may be able to accept a loosening of financial conditions in order to prevent a recession,” said Lawrence Gillum, a Charlotte, North Carolina-based fixed-income strategist for broker-dealer for LPL Financial. “If it is a head fake, then the Fed will talk up the need for higher long-end yields. It will probably take a couple more months of this type of report or better to see whether that plays out.”

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  • This week’s October inflation data looms large on Washington’s economic radar

    This week’s October inflation data looms large on Washington’s economic radar

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    Inflation data, a Fed speech and a government-shutdown deadline are on the calendar this week.


    MarketWatch photo illustration/iStock

    U.S. inflation data for October is clearly the economic highlight for markets, economists and policymakers this coming week. That’s because if price pressures continue their cooling trend from the summer, the Fed might be able to refrain from any more interest-rate hikes.

    Here’s a preview of the inflation report and other critical data and events that will have the markets’ attention this week.

    See: MarketWatch’s comprehensive economic calendar

    October consumer inflation

    Tuesday, 8:30 a.m. Eastern

    No economic reports matter more for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy outlook than consumer inflation data. Inflation has been trending down since the summer, but many economists are wary that most of the progress was low-hanging fruit, and that it will take a lot to get back to the Fed’s 2% target. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raised this concern in remarks on Thursday, saying the central bank was concerned about inflation “head fakes.”

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect headline CPI to moderate to a 0.1% rise in October, down from a 0.4% gain in the prior month, and the smallest increase since May.

    Over the past year, inflation is expected to rise at a 3.3% rate, down from 3.7% in the prior month.

    The improvement is expected to come mainly from gasoline prices.

    Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.3%, matching a 0.3% gain in the prior month. The year-over-year rate is seen holding steady at a 4.1% annual rate.

    October retail sales

    Wednesday, 8:30 a.m. Eastern

    Economists expect retail sales to be weak, falling 0.1% in October after a 0.7% jump in September and a 0.8% gain in August.

    The outlook for consumer spending is one of the most intriguing questions about the outlook.

    Will the strong spending seen in the late summer fade away? With above-trend job growth and incomes rising, there seems no reason for consumers to pull back sharply. But many economists think that consumers are running out of excess spending power built up during the pandemic.

    Also see: Retail earnings begin this week. ‘It’s getting worse,’ an analyst says.

    Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s speech to the Detroit Economic Club

    Tuesday at 12:45 p.m. Eastern

    There are just under 20 public remarks from Fed officials scheduled this week. One of the highlights will be Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s moderated question-and-answer session before the Detroit Economic Club.

    Goolsbee, who joined the Fed at the beginning of the year, is comfortable speaking in public and on television from his days in the Obama administration, and afterwards as a pundit. His views also carry weight because he will be on any short list of potential replacements for Powell if President Joe Biden wins a second term.

    Goolsbee has looked prescient so far. In his first public speeches this summer, he suggested that there could be an improvement in inflation without a big rise in unemployment.

    Biden-Xi to meet at APEC summit

    Wednesday

    Biden and Xi will meet for the first time in a year at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco, amid struggles in the Chinese economy and the recent strengthening of ties between XI and Russian Vladimir Putin.

    Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said investors should not expect anything market-moving from the talks. The Biden administration simply wants to get face time with Xi, he said.

    “The goal is to find out how to reach him, who are you supposed to talk to [to reach him in the future], and then have a good conversation with him where Biden can say a few things that we think he really needs to hear from us,” Scissors said.

    Gone are the days when the U.S. and China cooperated on economic issues, he said.

    Xi simply doesn’t care that much about the economy, Scissors said. He is more focused on “really strict party control of everything,” he added.

    Threat of a government shutdown

    Friday, midnight deadline

    The federal government will run out of money late Friday unless Congress passes legislation to keep the lights on.

    It is the first test for new House Speaker Mike Johnson. He has proposed a two-step government spending plan to keep the government open until early next year, but it remains uncertain whether this will break the logjam.

    Late Friday, Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to “negative” from “stable.”

    This is actually positive for the prospects of a congressional deal, said Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, a political forecasting firm.

    Haines said he has lowered the odds of a government shutdown to 30% from 40% before the Moody’s move.

    “The last thing House Republicans should want to do…is show newly skeptical markets that they can’t even handle a continuation of government funding,” Haines said, in a note to clients.

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