Be like Buffett and use the VIX to buy fear and sell greed in the SPY.
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The VIX finally closed below 30 on Friday and below the 20-day moving average of 31.20. It is also nearing the critical 27.50 area that served as serious upside resistance for most of September until it finally gave way. Earnings from tech bell weathers Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) next week and the Fed rate decision the following week will likely tell the tale regarding direction of both stocks and the VIX into year-end.
I had written an article in late August on how option prices can help predict future stock prices. I specifically used the VXN -or VIX of the NASDAQ stocks- to show how the big pullback in VXN equated to a short-term top in NASDAQ stocks (QQQ), as shown below.
But rather than just calling tops, using an IV based methodology can be a robust market timing tool to use to help discern turning points in the overall market from both a bullish and bearish perspective.
Remember, the VIX and VXN are both measures of 30-day implied volatility (IV) in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 respectively. In this article I will explore how using the VIX can greatly aid in discerning the upcoming market movement for the S&P 500 (SPY) both to the upside and the downside.
The chart below shows how extended moves higher in VIX towards 35 followed by subsequent weakness has been a bona-fide buy signal in SPY over the past year. Conversely, sharp drops lower in VIX with subsequent strength have been solid sell signals in stocks.
The table below summarizes the initial buy signal and subsequent sell signal based on this VIX methodology.
The total P/L for the 5 buy and sell signals is 35.86%, with an average gain of just over 7%. Worst gain was still 3%. Compare that to the overall loss of over 20% in the SPY over the past 12 months.
The average days held for each buy/sell signal was roughly a month. Total time held for all signals combined was less than half a year. So big gains in under 50% of the time using the VIX methodology compared to bigger losses holding SPY all the time.
A new buy signal was generated a few weeks ago as the SPY hit annual lows. No sell signal evident yet, but the unrealized gain on that latest buy signal is now over 5%.
Using the VIX to help tell whether the SPY is at a turning point is akin to the Warren Buffett adage to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. Certainly, a little of the fear has come out of the market if VIX is any guide. Still haven’t reached the greedy level yet so stay tuned and see what happens over the coming weeks!
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SPY shares closed at $374.29 on Friday, up $8.88 (+2.43%). Year-to-date, SPY has declined -20.28%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
About the Author: Tim Biggam
Tim spent 13 years as Chief Options Strategist at Man Securities in Chicago, 4 years as Lead Options Strategist at ThinkorSwim and 3 years as a Market Maker for First Options in Chicago. He makes regular appearances on Bloomberg TV and is a weekly contributor to the TD Ameritrade Network “Morning Trade Live”. His overriding passion is to make the complex world of options more understandable and therefore more useful to the everyday trader.
Tim is the editor of the POWR Options newsletter. Learn more about Tim’s background, along with links to his most recent articles.
Retiring from your profession is something that will happen sooner or later. When your hair becomes too gray, and you can no longer keep up with the amount of work that needs to be done, you will most likely be on your way out of the company, on your way to enjoying your golden years at home, in a retirement community or getting busy with your garden.
Due – Due
Early retirement is a different story, though. It’s not common among today’s professionals, especially in the current economic landscape. There is more than one reason why only a small percentage of the working class retire early, and if you are one of the few people who plan on doing it soon, there might be some things you’re not aware of. That’s why in this post, I’ll explain 12 things you must consider before deciding to retire early.
#1 You need to have enough money to fund your healthcare.
One benefit of working is that your company sometimes covers part or all of your healthcare needs. This is especially helpful if you are on constant medication or have a family member or dependant who relies on one. Even without this benefit, having a stable source of income still provides a way to set aside funds for your healthcare.
Early retirement will strip you of this benefit, and it can be rather costly to shoulder the expenses. In the US, the average person spent $12,100 on healthcare in 2020. The government does provide some help to ease this dilemma, but it will not be available for early retirees until they reach the age of 65.
Depending on the age you plan to retire, this could possibly mean shouldering decades’ worth of health-related expenses, and it will not be light on your pockets. So, you’ll need to do some good planning and have a large enough emergency fund set aside just for those expenses.
#2 It might not be as difficult as it seems to live steadily.
While early retirement is generally seen as expensive in the long term, it may not be the case for everyone. If you have been a prudent worker and have saved enough for your plan to take off, secured alternate sources of income, and considered the impact of inflation, you are more than ready to leave your workspace and settle for good.
Also, retiring does not necessarily mean that you have to let go of any earning opportunity. Nowadays, there are many ways for you to earn passive income while having the time of your life. Investing in stocks, cryptocurrencies, or making a living out of your passion are some things you can do to still have an inflow of resources even after retiring early.
Additionally, you can adopt wise money-saving decisions to help manage your finances, like budgeting, tracking your expenses daily, taking advantage of coupons and promos, and avoiding making impulsive purchases, especially those that are costly.
#3 You must think of ways to pay your mortgage or rent.
Unless your decision to retire early from work is amplified by the fact that you no longer need to make monthly payments for your home, you need to think of ways to cover your mortgage payments. They can get expensive, especially when you no longer have a steady stream of income, and future repairs can also be an additional burden.
You also have to consider property taxes, as they might increase depending on how the economy performs in the following years. It’s much better to expect the worst when it comes to these things, as having inadequate funds can put you in a tough predicament in the future.
#4 Early retirement is only practical if you make a decent passive income.
Even if you have decided to free yourself from the shackles of unreasonable work hours and tedious responsibilities, the world will not stop charging you from living. Expenses will continue to pile up, you will need to eat, pay your bills, and as cliche as it sounds, enjoy yourself and be happy.
All of these things will require money, and the need for money calls for a way to earn it. Unless you have millions, your savings can only get you so far in life, even if you manage them wisely. Therefore, you still technically need to exert some effort to earn money.
But if you’re looking for a leisurely retirement sipping margaritas in a tropical paradise without lifting a finger, that will only happen if you manage to produce passive income. You don’t necessarily need to earn enough to cover 100% of your expenses, but at least enough to lower withdrawals from your savings to help make them last for the rest of your life.
If you don’t make passive income, you’ll have to get back in the saddle. Perhaps a different arrangement, like a remote or work-from-home job you can do part-time, could be enough, or you may even need to go back to full-time. This is why, in many cases, retiring early from work isn’t so much retiring as it is replacing one type of work with another unless you are a son of a billionaire or an heir to generational wealth.
#5 Money will not be your top priority if you retire early.
While it is still a factor you need to consider when planning your retirement, money will not play as big of a role in your journey after leaving work as it did when you were still working a nine-to-five. People who retire early want to be free from being slaves of the corporate world, and that is what they focus on.
It will make no sense to retire early only to live the rest of your life worrying about money, will it? No one tells you this when you’re about to retire, and it will either dawn on you the moment you decide to pass your resignation letter or arrive as a late realization.
However, this may put you in a tricky spot if you don’t plan your retirement adequately because you DO need to worry about money. You don’t want to live a couple of blissful years of happy retirement in complete denial only to be hit by the reality that you no longer have any money and need to get back to work.
#6 You’ll be stronger and healthier and have more time to enjoy the things you like.
One drawback of retiring at an old age is while you do have all the time and freedom in the world, your age will simply hinder you from enjoying that freedom. If you retire early, you will have the best of both worlds as you’ll have both the time and the energy to do anything you want and more.
Retiring in your twenties or thirties means you’ll actually be able to tick off all the things on your bucket list–travel to Greece, get a dog, visit a museum, write a book, or finish reading all the books that have been collecting dust in your room. Before you know it, you’ll be out of things to do, so make sure to write a long bucket list.
#7 You’ll have to pay hefty fees to access your retirement fund.
Retirement funds are intended for people retiring at the normal retirement age, not for early retirement. Depending on the investment vehicle you chose when you started saving and how mature your retirement fund is when you actually retire, you’ll probably have to pay early withdrawal fees.
For example, if you purchased a 10 or 20 years deferred annuity but want to make a withdrawal within the growth period, most insurers will charge a strong fee that becomes lower the more you wait.
Additionally, if you paid for your annuity with money from a 401(k) and plan to withdraw before turning 59½, you’ll have to pay an early withdrawal penalty fee of 10% on your withdrawal to the IRS.
So, retiring early can be quite expensive if not done right.
#8 It will take time for you to adjust to your new retirement life.
One of the reasons for retiring early is to be free of the routine lifestyle when you were still clocking a nine to five. This will obviously change once you retire, and adjusting can be challenging. It varies with every person—for some, it might only take a couple of days; for others, it could be a couple of months, maybe even a year.
You mustn’t feel pressure to adjust, though, because you have all the time in the world to change your routine or even abandon the thought of having one. Allow yourself to make the transition no matter how long it takes because deadlines are but a thing of the past when you retire early from work.
#9 Your definition of “early” retirement depends entirely on you.
Unlike the normal retirement at a qualifying age—usually 60 years and older—early retirement depends entirely on your own timeline. This means that you do not have to give in to any external pressures and make the call when you feel you can finally afford it.
If early retirement for you is not having to work by the time you turn 30, then you can do so when you reach that age. You just have to make sure that you have planned your whole life ahead, not just in terms of money, but in terms of the things you want to do.
That’s also your call to make; you are the only one to blame if everything goes awry and retiring early does not work out for you. It is a double-edged sword, but for the most part, it’s the first manifestation of your freedom.
#10 Early retirement doesn’t always work.
Pun aside, early retirement is not everyone’s cup of tea, and even if it were, it might not be the best option for everyone. At a superficial level, leaving your work while you’re still young sounds like a promising dream for everyone. However, it may entail long-term consequences that might not sit well with some. Aside from the financial problems that may arise, there’s also the possibility of losing control over your life.
Early retirement does have its perks. You can give attention to things you had not paid any mind to when you were still working; take the time to rest; enjoy your favorite hobbies when you’re young instead of delaying them until you can’t enjoy them anymore, and you can have fun in general.
But if you have all these things checked and you’re still asking yourself, “what’s left for me to do?” it might be a sign that retiring early might not have been the best decision to make.
This is a consequence of our needs and priorities, which are summarized in Abraham Maslow’s pyramid. Retiring early can eliminate an important source of satisfaction of our “belongingness” needs because when working in any organization, we feel we belong to something bigger.
It can also hinder our ability to grow and find self-fulfillment, which can leave us in a state of disappointment when we reach the end of our lives.
#11 Early retirement gives you a go signal for a fresh start.
Just as there is no right time to retire early from work, there is also no limit as to when you wish to do a start-over with your life. One of the best things about retiring early is you can restart everything and live life with a clean slate. This time, you have both the control and resources you need to make your life what you want it to be.
In addition, you also get to decide what path you will take after retirement — do you want to go back to school? Set up an art studio? Focus on your passion for baking? You can do any or all of these things when you retire early. You don’t have to explain why, and all you need to do is live your life the way you want to live it.
#12 You will have to weigh out your options.
While you think that you virtually have full control over your life, early retirement will still compel you to weigh your options and make wise decisions to make sense of your retirement. You’ll have to let go of some opportunities to utilize others, and the choice of prioritizing your happiness will also sometimes require you to trade off some other form of convenience.
The bottom line
Early retirement is a decision that is yours and yours to make, and if you have no idea of what is in store for you when you decide to do it, then the things discussed above will give you a glimpse of the reality that it entails.
Like many other things in the world, retiring from work at an early age comes with certain perks and drawbacks, and you must consider them both before making your decision. It is up to you to decide the terms and date of your retirement, but how it plays out will ultimately depend on your choices once you take that leap of faith.
America’s high inflation rate will produce a 7% increase in the size of the standard deduction when workers file their taxes on their 2023 income, according to new inflation adjustments from the Internal Revenue Service.
It’s also going to pump up tax brackets by 7% as well, according to the annual inflation adjustments the IRS announced this week.
Many tax code provisions — but not all — are indexed for inflation, so the announcements are a recurring event. But when inflation is persistently clinging to four-decade highs, these annual adjustments carry extra significance.
“When inflation is persistently clinging to four-decade highs, these annual adjustments of approximately 7% for the standard deduction carry extra significance.”
Start with the standard deduction, which is what most people use instead of itemizing deductions.
The standard deduction for individuals and married people filing separately will be $13,850 for the 2023 tax year. That’s a $900 increase from the $12,950 standard deduction for the upcoming tax season.
For married couples filing jointly, the payout climbs to $27,700 for the 2023 tax year. That’s a $1,800 increase from the $25,900 standard deduction set for the upcoming tax year.
The increases in the marginal tax rates reflect the same 7% rise. For example, the 22% tax bracket for this year is over $41,775 for single filers and over $83,550 for married couples filing jointly. Next year, the same 22% bracket applies to incomes over $44,725 and over $89,450 for married couples filing jointly.
MarketWatch/IRS
“The changes seem to be much larger than previous years because inflation is running much higher than it has in previous decades,” said Alex Durante, economist at the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning tax think tank.
The IRS arrives at its inflation adjustments by averaging a slightly different inflation gauge, the so-called “chained Consumer Price Index” instead of the widely-watched Consumer Price Index, Durante noted. That’s an outcome of the Trump-era Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, he added.
“The reason they do this is because the regular CPI is thought to overstate inflation because it doesn’t take into account the substitution that shoppers can make as cost rise,” Durante said. Shoppers substitute when they swap a more expensive item for cheaper one, and research shows many Americans are using the tactic.
The IRS inflation adjustments come after September CPI data last week showed inflation of 8.2% year-over-year, slightly off from 8.3% in August. Also last week, the Social Security Administration said next year’s payments would include an 8.7% cost of living adjustment.
“The payout on the earned income tax credit — geared at low- and moderate-income working families who have been hit hard by red-hot inflation — is also increasing. ”
The payout on the earned income tax credit is also increasing. The maximum payout for a qualifying taxpayer with at least three qualifying children climbs to $7,430, up from $6,935 for this tax year. The longstanding credit is geared at low- and moderate-income working families who have been hit hard by red-hot inflation.
More than 60 provisions are slated for an increase inline with inflation, but many portions of the tax code are not indexed for inflation. Depending on the circumstances, the taxes or the tax breaks kick in sooner.
Capital gains tax rules one example. The IRS lets a taxpayer use capital losses to offset capital gains taxes. If losses exceed gains, the IRS allows a taxpayer to deduct up to $3,000 in excess loses. They can then carry the remainder of the capital loses to future tax years. It’s been more than four decades since lawmakers last set the limit, according to Durante.
“While more than 60 provisions are slated for an increase inline with inflation, many portions of the tax code are not indexed for inflation. They include capital gains tax. ”
Given the stock market’s rocky downward slide this year, many investors might welcome a fast-approaching tax break — even if it only enables a $3,000 deduction.
At the same time, a married couple selling their home can exclude the first $500,000 of the sale from capital gains taxation, and it’s $250,000 for a single filer. It’s been that way since the exclusion’s 1997 establishment.
The once white-hot housing market may be cooling, but many sellers may still be facing the point when taxes kick in. The median home listing was over $367,000 as of early October, according to Redfin RDFN, +2.29%.
The child tax credit is another example. After the payout to parents last year jumped to $3,600 for children under age 6 and $3,000 per child age 6 to 17, it’s back to a maximum $2,000. The credit’s refundable portion climbs from $1,500 to $1,600 during tax year 2023, the IRS notes.
Proponents of the boosted payouts and some Congressional Democrats want to revive the larger payments in negotiations tied to corporate taxes. The high costs of living are a strong reason to bring back the boosted credit, they say.
Bull markets do not go straight up. There are plenty of down days, weeks and even months for the S&P 500 (SPY) added into the mix. Conversely bear markets do not go straight down. In fact, they have some pretty sizeable rallies that come along the way often clouding the picture of what comes next. This is why we call them “suckers rallies” as investors get sucked in…just before they get spit back out on the next leg lower. This is all to say we are still very much in a bear market with lower lows on the way. Here is why.
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The 24/7 investment media like CNBC needs to keep things interesting to keep you watching all in the name of selling more ads. Their favorite trick is to show the great importance of that day’s news and how it affected the S&P 500 (SPY).
That means that on Thursday they were telling people why things are so terrible and why stocks are down. And then Friday they put on a broad smile talking about how Fed whispers of potentially less stringent rate hikes led to a monster rally.
Interesting for sure…just not profitable advice.
Let’s talk about what is really happening…and why…and why stocks are still in a long term bear market battle with lower lows on the way.
Market Commentary
Stocks were floating around this past week until another shot was fired by the Fed to dampen the mood. I am talking about the mid-day Thursday comments from Philadelphia Fed President, Patrick Harker. Here the key excerpt from the CNBC article on the topic:
“Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker on Thursday said higher interest rates have done little to keep inflation in check, so more increases will be needed.
“We are going to keep raising rates for a while,” the central bank official said in remarks for a speech in New Jersey. “Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4% by the end of the year.”
The latter comment was in reference to the fed funds rate, which currently is targeted in a range between 3%-3.75%.
“Sometime next year, we are going to stop hiking rates. At that point, I think we should hold at a restrictive rate for a while to let monetary policy do its work,” he said. “It will take a while for the higher cost of capital to work its way through the economy. After that, if we have to, we can tighten further, based on the data.”
Pretty much from that moment stocks reversed out of early gains to end firmly lower. The reason should be obvious. That we may not currently see the full measure of pain in the economy because the Fed’s work is FAR from over.
So if their efforts to date have not resulted in moderating inflation, then it will take much higher rates and likely much more damage to the economy to get the job done. And those hoping for a soft landing should start abandoning that flawed assumption.
I say that even as Friday there was a bounce for the “supposed” reason that some investors heard some talk at the Fed that would point to fewer rate hikes and less pain to the economy. Here is a CNBC article on that topic:
Remember that the Fed will always have internal debates on the pros and cons of any policy decision. The consensus outcome is what you see issued to the public followed by a speaking tour of Fed officials to give those comments additional weight and color.
Let there be NO DOUBT that they are currently on course with what was shared by Powell at Jackson Hole. That being a long term battle with inflation. Do NOT expect any rate cuts through the end of 2023. And do expect it to create economic pain (slowing of growth and dampening of the labor market).
Now let’s layer on top of this somber note the growing legion of corporate executives that are sounding the alarm on a looming recession. Jeff Bezos of Amazon is the one listed first in this article, but as you scroll down in the article you will see many more pounding the table followed by Elon Musk echoing that sentiment on Friday.
The most interesting part is that on this list are many Wall Street executives. The great curiosity is that crowd rarely says recession or bear market. That’s because when they do that, then more clients go from investments in stocks to cash where they make little to no fees.
Instead these folks typically speak in riddles about volatility or potential difficulties on the horizon. So historically you would have to read through the lines to get down to their real meaning.
The point being if Wall Street execs are straight up telling you that a recession is on the way…then best you believe it to be true and invest accordingly. (Which we are…more on that below).
On the economic front weakness found in the Empire State Manufacturing report on Monday was confirmed on Thursday be an even worse showing for the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The way forward does not look much better as the New Orders component remains weak at -15.9.
Remember that manufacturing is often a leading indicator for the economy as a whole. So the weakness here will likely spread to the services. Some of that was already on display last week from the Retail Sales report which shows that overall spending is ONLY higher because of inflation. If you remove inflation you see net spending is lower. This is likely a big part of the reason that Jeff Bezos is sounding the recession alarm.
Bull markets are long term trends that typically last 5-6 years. Once on track…it is hard to knock off its axis.
Bear markets are more like 12-18 month affairs. Not as long, but also hard to knock off its trajectory once the ball is rolling. And indeed it is rolling. And will keep rolling until the Fed has hit the brakes hard enough to throttle the economy and put an end to inflation.
Please remember the battle cry of “Don’t Fight the Fed!”
In the Fed’s own words, this is a long term battle with no signs of lower rates til 2024. This is why so many corporate executives are preparing for recession. And this is why so many investment experts, including yours truly, are beating the bearish drum.
So yes, there will be bear market rallies here and there. Some quite impressive as we saw with the 18% gain from mid June til mid August when investors regained their senses. However, the long term picture points to lower lows on the way and you would be wise to get your portfolio in tune with that reality.
What To Do Next?
Discover my special portfolio with 9 simple trades to help you generate gains as the market descends further into bear market territory.
This plan has been working wonders since it went into place mid August generating a robust gain for investors as the S&P 500 (SPY) tanked.
If you have been successful navigating the investment waters in 2022, then please feel free to ignore.
However, if the bearish argument shared above does make you curious as to what happens next…then do consider getting my updated “Bear Market Game Plan” that includes specifics on the 9 unique positions in my timely and profitable portfolio.
Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”) CEO, Stock News Network and Editor, Reitmeister Total Return
SPY shares were trading at $374.66 per share on Friday afternoon, up $9.25 (+2.53%). Year-to-date, SPY has declined -20.20%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
About the Author: Steve Reitmeister
Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.
Investors often assume that if the overall market (SPY) is in bear market territory…that means that every stock is down. It’s true that the vast majority head lower. But it is also true that there is “always a bull market somewhere”. Mean some stocks go up even during the worst of times. This article shares insights on 3 factors that help find more of these breakout stocks in good times and bad. Read on below for details.
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This week we were blessed with our largest crowd ever for a live investment webinar where we unveiled a new way to pick winning stocks. Click below to see what the excitement is all about:
SPY shares were trading at $365.03 per share on Thursday afternoon, down $3.47 (-0.94%). Year-to-date, SPY has declined -22.26%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
About the Author: Steve Reitmeister
Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.
One of the strongest movers on a bullish day for the market is the Boston Beer Company (NYSE:SAM). The company, which is synonymous with its signature Sam Adams beers and Truly Hard Seltzers reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.21 on revenue of $596.45 million. The top line number exceeded analysts’ estimates for $566.42 million. But the bottom line was lower than the $3.48 that was expected.
MarketBeat.com – MarketBeat
Nevertheless, the EPS was a significant improvement from the prior year when earnings were negative. However, investors may be concerned that the earnings number Is not an improvement over 2019. The $2.21 EPS was 38% lower than 2019. This is even though revenue is up 57% over the same timeframe.
Seltzer Sales Remain a Problem
Part of the problem is that Boston Beer is trying to find the right product mix. The company overestimated demand for its Truly Hard Seltzer brand. Sales soared during the pandemic, but demand plummeted when consumers went back to bars and restaurants in 2021.
This created a situation that is reminiscent of an actual Boston Tea Party. The company had to dispose of millions of cases of unsold inventory. That’s a key reason the company was unprofitable in 2021.
The company is, however, seeing strength in its Twisted Tea and Hard Mountain Dew brands that are part of its “Beyond Beer” portfolio. And beer sales themselves remain strong. That was a dynamic that is playing out across the sector this quarter. And to get to the answer for that we can look at the continued strength in travel and entertainment.
How Long are the Travel Coattails?
When a stock makes such a large move after earnings, it suggests that the results caught people by surprise. But maybe investors shouldn’t have been so surprised. The beer and spirits industry is an adjacent industry to travel and entertainment experiences. The two go together in many cases like peanut butter and jelly.
And if, as expected, more people travel for the holidays in 2022 than in either of the past two years, that would likely mean the possibility of another strong quarter for Boston Beer. The question for investors is just how long those coattails are. Because without them, persistent inflation would suggest that many consumers will look to trade down to less expensive brands or forego discretionary alcohol purchases altogether.
The Company Lowered its Guidance Again
It’s this dynamic that may be causing Boston Beer to once again lower its earnings guidance. The company is now saying full year adjusted earnings will be between $7 and $10. This is a cut on the high end from the range of $6 and $11 it forecast in April. And it’s a significant drop from the initial forecast for $11 and $16.
SAM stock is now trading above 2019 levels. And the strong top line numbers may make it worthy of those numbers. I appreciate the company’s candor about supply chain and possible lowered demand. And while I believe that sales tell the ultimate tale, the stock looks more susceptible to heading lower than moving higher.
Analysts tracked by MarketBeat give SAM stock a Hold rating with the potential downside risk of 10% for the stock. That may change as analysts weigh in after this earnings report. But there’s nothing that suggests to me that the rating will fundamentally change. This is a case where I like the product more than the stock.
People can contribute up to $22,500 in 401(k) accounts and $6,500 in IRAs in 2023, the IRS said Friday.
For 401(k)s, that’s an almost 10% increase from 2022’s contribution limit of $20,500. For IRAs, it’s a more than 8% rise from 2022’s limit of $6,000.
As added context, the inflation-indexed bumps tax year 2023 income tax brackets and the standard deduction worked to approximately 7%.
When the IRS increased the 401(k) contribution limits last year, it came to a roughly 5% rise.
“Given the inflation we have been experiencing recently, the early announcement of this increase is encouraging,” Rita Assaf, vice president of retirement products at Fidelity Investments, said after the IRS released the 2023 contribution limits.
Seven in 10 people are “very concerned” how inflating costs will impact their readiness for retirement according to a Fidelity study, Assaf noted. “Every dollar counts, and this increase will provide Americans with the opportunity to set aside just a bit more to help fund their retirement objectives,” she said.
Older workers can save even more
The 2023 contribution limits that apply to 401(k)s — plus 403(b) plans, most 457 plans and the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan — are even larger for workers age 50 and over.
Catch-up contribution limits rise to $7,500 from $6,500, the IRS said. Combine the catch-up contributions with the regular contribution limits, and workers age 50 and over can sock away $30,000 for retirement in these accounts during 2023, the agency said.
Income phase-outs increase when it comes to possible deductions, credits and contributions
Tax rules can let people deduct contributions to traditional IRAs so long as they meet certain conditions, pegged to issues like coverage through a workplace retirement plan and yearly income. Above phase-out ranges, deductions don’t apply if a person or their spouse has a retirement plan through work, the IRS noted.
For 2023, a single taxpayer covered by a workplace retirement plan has a phase-out range between $73,000 and $83,000. That’s up from a range between $68,000 and $78,000 during 2022.
For a married couple filing jointly “if the spouse making the IRA contribution is covered by a workplace retirement plan, the phase-out range is increased to between $116,000 and $136,000,” the IRS said.
If an IRA saver doesn’t have a workplace plan but their spouse is covered, “the phase-out range is increased to between $218,000 and $228,000,” the agency noted.
There are also changes coming for the Roth IRA, which people fund with after-tax money and then can tap tax-free later.
The Roth IRA contribution limits also climb to $6,500. Retirement savers putting money in their 401(k) can’t also put pre-tax money in a traditional IRA, but they can contribute to a Roth account.
Still, the eligibility to contribute to Roth IRA accounts is pegged to income, subject to phase-out ranges.
In 2023, the income phase-out range on Roth IRA contributions climbs to between $138,000 – $153,000 for individuals and people filing as head of household. (That’s up from a range between $129,000 and $144,000, the IRS noted.)
With a married couple filing jointly, next year’s phase-out range goes to $218,00 – $228,000. That’s a step up from this year’s $204,000 – $214,000 range.
The income limit surrounding the saver’s credit, which is geared toward low- and moderate-income households, is also getting a lift. The credit lets taxpayers claim 10%, 20% or one-half of contributions to eligible retirement plans, including a 401(k) or an IRA. The credit’s income limits are climbing, the IRS said.
The 2023 income limit will be $73,000 for married couples filing jointly, $54,750 for heads of household and $36,500 for individuals and married individuals filing separately, according to the IRS.
The numbers: The U.S. federal budget deficit fell to $1.37 trillion in the just-ended fiscal year, the Treasury Department said Friday, half the amount of last year’s shortfall.
Key details: The Treasury said the deficit fell by $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2022, the largest one-year decrease on record. Surging tax receipts totaling $4.9 trillion helped cut the deficit, as did falling outlays.
Spending was $6.3 trillion for the fiscal year, a drop of 8.1%. That partly reflects reductions in COVID-related spending.
The deficit would have been lower had student loan cancelation costs not been included. President Joe Biden in August announced $10,000 in federal debt cancelation for those with incomes less than $125,000 a year, or households making less than $250,000. Those who received federal Pell Grants are eligible for extra forgiveness.
The loan-cancelation costs contributed to a 562% increase in the monthly deficit for September. The government’s fiscal year runs October through September.
Big picture: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement that the report “provides further evidence of our historic economic recovery, driven by our vaccination effort and the American Rescue Plan.”
Meanwhile, a budget watchdog said the figure was no cause for celebration.
“We borrowed $1.4 trillion last year. That is not an accomplishment — it’s a reminder of how precarious our fiscal situation remains,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Snack food giant Mondelez International (NASDAQ: MDLZ) stock is trading down (-13%) for the year faring better than the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY) which has fallen (-25%), respectively. Mondelez is the world’s top seller of cookie biscuits and the 3rd largest chocolate maker ahead of #5 Hershey (NYSE: HSY). It sells snacks in over 150 countries under 35+ brands including Chips Ahoy, Original Philadelphia, Marabou, Sour Patch, Ritz, Wheat Thins, Triscuit, and Aspen Gold. Its acquisition of Clif Bar will bolster its snack bar business into a multi-billion dollar franchise. The Company was formerly known as Kraft Foods and spun-off in 2012 from Kraft Heinz (NYSE: KHC). Mondelez owns popular snack brands including Cadbury, Milka, and Toblerone chocolates, Oreo, belVita and LU biscuits and Trident gums. High raw material and transport cost inflation took an impact on margins despite price hikes. Developed markets are showing a softening from weakening consumer confidence but emerging markets remain strong. Its line of comfort and low-cost snack food revenues remain resilient despite economic headwinds or seasonality. It’s a competitor to packaged foods behemoths like Conagra Foods (NYSE: CAG), Hormel (NYSE: HRL), Lamb Weston (NYSE: LW), and Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) without competing for the same shelf space in retailers and grocers like Target (NYSE: TGT), Walmart (NYSE: WMT), Walgreens (NYSE: WBA), and Kroger (NYSE: KR). The popularity of its name-brand snacks and candies provides a deep moat against generic and private-label knock offs.
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The Profit Machine
On July 28, 2022, Mondelez released its fiscal second-quarter 2022 results for the quarter ending June 2022. The Company reported an earnings-per-share (EPS) profit of $0.67 excluding non-recurring items beating $0.64 consensus analyst estimates by $0.03. Net revenues climbed 9.5% year-over-year (YoY) to $7.27 billion beating consensus analyst estimates for $6.8 billion for the quarter. Organic net revenues rose 13.1% with an underlying volume/mix of 5.1%. The Company returned $2.5 billion to shareholders in the first half of 2022. The Company raised its dividend to $0.385 per share. Mondelez will acquire Clif Bar, a maker of protein snack bars. The Company sees organic net revenue growth of 8% for the full-year 2022.
Growth and Resilience
Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put commented, “Our chocolate and biscuit businesses continue to demonstrate strong volume growth and pricing resilience across both developed and emerging markets. These results combined with ongoing cost discipline, simplification, and revenue growth management are delivering robust profit dollar growth and strong cash flow, enabling us to increase our dividend by 10 percent.” The acquisition of Clif Bar will enable Mondelez to create a billion-dollar snack bar business with domestic and international expansion opportunities.
Navigating Headwinds
Mondelez presented its solutions for tackling headwinds like inflation, supply chain and a strong U.S. dollar. Inflation spurred by the pandemic is accelerating input costs including energy, transportation, packaging, wheat, dairy and edible oils. The Company is taking price actions across key markets to mitigate inflationary pressures. They are now 85% hedged for the rest of 2022 near fully hedged in key areas. Supply chain volatility is being felt mainly in the U.S. from trucking and container supply lagging demand and labor shortages at third-party suppliers. The Company is improving its manufacturing and warehouse capacity, implementing new measures to support retention, and prioritizing key SKUs. To mitigate the strong U.S. dollar versus the euro and pound sterling, the Company is hedging currencies and net investments. Its packaged brands have a long shelf life and are cheap, which further help sustain sales even through recessions.
Clif Bar Acquisition
The Clif Bar acquisition has many benefits including entering the U.S. protein and energy bar market as the #1 player. Clif is the leader in the fastest growing segment of protein and energy. The global snack bar market is growing at 5% annually beyond $16 billion. It currently has over $800 million in annual sales with expansion opportunities outside the U.S. The acquisition is complementary to its existing snack bar brands Perfect Snacks and Enjoy Life and will generate significant cost synergies in manufacturing and packaging.
Here’s What the Charts Say
Using the rifle charts on the weekly and daily time frames provides a bird’s eye view of the landscape for MDLZ stock. The weekly rifle chart downtrend has a falling 5-period moving average (MA) resistance that also overlaps the $57.38 Fibonacci (fib) level. The weekly 200-period MA is slowly rising at $56.97. The weekly lower Bollinger Bands (BBs) sit at $53.81. The weekly market structure low (MSL) buy triggered sits at $57.93. The daily rifle chart is attempting a breakout as the daily 5-period MA rises at $56.78 to cross over the 15-period MA at $56.79 as the stochastic rises to the 40-band. The daily 50-period MA sits at $60.74. The daily upper BBs sit at $61.62 and daily lower BBs sit at $53.43. Attractive pullback levels sit at the $56.71, $56.29, $54.82 fib, $53.27 fib, $52.51 fib, $50.64, and the $49.61 fib level.
Piers Ridyard is the CEO of RDX Works. He sat down with Jessica Abo to talk about the public decentralized ledger core developer Radix.
Jessica Abo: Piers, for those who are unfamiliar, can you start by telling us about RDX Works and what you do?
Piers Ridyard:
RDX Works is a core developer of a public ledger, like Ethereum or Bitcoin or Solana. Ours is called Radix, and it’s a public ledger entirely focused on decentralized finance (DeFi).
Decentralized finance is basically building financial products and applications on top of a piece of decentralized infrastructure (blockchain) that is designed to make it easy for people to create things like assets and services, in a way that is more digital-first than the current financial system we have today.
And so, if you’ve ever heard about things like Ethereum – platforms that allow you to build solutions like decentralized exchanges, decentralized money markets, or decentralized financial products – that make it easy for people to do investing, saving, and trading.
It’s basically a new area of technology. In the same way the internet was a new area of technology back in the 1980s and 1990s, that’s what we’re seeing today – this new, revolutionary system that allows you to replace the current financial systems like banks, and create a new way of allowing people to build.
Why should we care about all of this?
The way that I often think about the current financial system is, it’s a little bit like an archipelago of badly connected islands. So each bank has its own internal system, its own internal ledger. Each stock exchange has its own internal system, its own internal ledger. But actually, if you look at the banking system, a lot of transactions are done by Excel spreadsheets that are sent between companies to be able to reconcile because systems don’t talk to each other.
Now, a bit like before the internet came along, people would do things by phone or by fax, but there wasn’t a unified place where you could send information easily. And right now there isn’t really a unified place in which you can create financial assets and move them around between companies. And that’s what this infrastructure is for.
And I know it sounds very simple, but it’s as simple as it was when we went from newspapers to reading things online. It was enabled by a bunch of new technologies and new platforms that were created, but couldn’t have been created before.
One of the big revolutions of decentralized finance is this ability to create liquidity around long-tail assets. So when you think about the current financial system, you’ll be like, well, Apple; I can go and buy and sell Apple stock. But if you’re an entrepreneur and you’re building a company, even if it’s a relatively big company, your equity isn’t very liquid. Your debt isn’t very liquid. And that actually makes it harder to raise finance, it makes it more expensive to raise finance.
And what this infrastructure does is makes it radically easier for people to be able to access the financial ecosystem, and be able to do things that get out of the way of their business. It allows entrepreneurs to get on with doing the thing that actually matters, which is building great products for people.
Where does Radix fit into the DeFi universe?
When Ethereum first came out, people didn’t really know what the purpose of these public ledgers was, what the idea of smart contracts was. And so they started playing around with different products and services. But it quickly became apparent that the real thing to use for these public ledgers is actually decentralized finance.
However, Ethereum and the competitors to Ethereum are not really designed for building an asset-first platform. So we think that decentralized finance is going to eat the 400 trillion global financial system. It’s going to move everything to public ledgers in the same way that all information moved to the internet.
But to do that, you have to actually build a piece of infrastructure that’s designed for the application that is being built. And what we found is, it’s really difficult to build decentralized finance today. You see lots of hacks, lots of exploits, lots of problems that all come down to the tools that entrepreneurs have available to them to build with these systems.
So what Radix did is, we spent the last three years working with DeFi developers and DeFi projects to build an incredibly intuitive experience for being able to build these platforms and services.
You can think of Radix as an operating system, or a platform for people to build applications on top of it. We’ve created a programming language and a public ledger that makes it really intuitive for people to be able to harness the power of this new type of technology that came along and make it much easier for entrepreneurs that are thinking about launching a business in Web3, or launching a business in DeFi, or launching a business in crypto, to be able to go from idea to production code and take that down from two years to something like three months.
In simple terms, what is a smart contract?
Smart contract is really a difficult term. Because it’s kind of a misnomer, right? It is not a contract from a legal point of view. A smart contract is a piece of code that exists on a public ledger. The code itself can control money directly. And so a simple example of a smart contract is, if I have some Piers tokens, I can send them into a smart contract. And the smart contract can say, okay, well, if someone sends me 10 Piers tokens, then I’ll send them 20 Radix tokens.
But the smart contract does it on its own. It isn’t on a server that’s running on AWS or something like that. It’s actually part of the public ledger. Now, this superpower is critical because it allows you to create more transparency around how finance operates. Right now if I go to a bank, I send my money to the bank, and the bank has its own general ledger about whose money is what. And then I have to ask the bank to get my money out.
With a smart contract, all of that money exists on a ledger. And then all of the code that deals with the logic as to who is allowed to access that money, what that money can do when interacting with other applications on top of the ledger, is all administered directly through the logic of the smart contract itself.
So you can think of it as basically a program that exists on a public ledger, that will follow the rule set to do with the administration of assets on its own without needing some company to be running that in the background.
Where do you think DeFi is headed? What are some of your predictions for 2023?
I think 2023 is actually going to be a consolidation year. It’s going to be the year that people learn the lessons of what happened in 2021 and 2022, and work out what the real value was and what was created; things like how you create liquidity around long-tail assets.
I think what you’re going to see in 2023 is a lot more real-world assets. So things like building debt, things like business financing, project financing – that’s all going to start to come to public ledgers. And you’re going to start to see more stitching together of what we think of traditional assets into this unified layer of financial products and services.
A lot of people talk about NFTs, and the Bored Apes artwork and stuff like that. These are kind of toys, but they’re toys that represent what is actually possible to create with this technology. And you’re going to see more serious companies coming in and building things that are actually more exciting than the traditional financial sector, but using all of the tools and power that’s available from DeFi tool sets, like what Radix is building.
In your opinion, who do you think should go into crypto and who do you think should avoid it?
Everyone should take the time to learn. Not necessarily to go into, this is what my business is going to do in this space. Because we are still at an early stage. It is still the very early days of the technology. But go and use Scrypto, our programming language, that we’ve built to make it as easy as possible for people to get started in Web3 and DeFi. It’s a great way to learn the tools and understand what the technology could mean to your business.
And that’s the exploration that is necessary now. That’s where the entrepreneurs who really take that initiative are going to have the most opportunity for their businesses in the next cycles. Because they’ll have taken the time during these bear markets to understand how the technology might apply to their company, and how they can think about that for a long-term strategy of how their company is going to win as a result of this new tool set that’s available to them.
The retail industry continues to do well despite surging commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages, thanks to the expansion of e-commerce. Therefore, fundamentally strong retail stocks, such as Buckle, Inc. (BKE), J.Jill, Inc. (JILL), and Movado Group (MOV), could be promising investments. On the other hand, avoiding The Gap (GPS) could be wise due to its weak fundamentals. Keep reading.
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Despite the cost pressures and supply chain disruptions, the retail industry has remained strong this year thanks to steady consumer spending. Despite the persistently high inflation and the Fed’s interest rate increases, consumer spending was flat in September. Moreover, retail sales rose 8.2% from the year-ago period.
Despite the rising recession fears, the retail industry is expected to perform steadily, thanks to the expansion of e-commerce and higher discretionary income in a red-hot job market. The global apparel market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.1% to $768.26 billion by 2026.
Given this backdrop, it could be wise to invest in fundamentally strong retail stocks The Buckle, Inc. (BKE), Movado Group, Inc. (MOV), and J.Jill Inc. (JILL). However, we think The Gap, Inc. (GPS) is best avoided now due to its weak fundamentals.
BKE operates as a retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women. It markets a selection of brand-name casual apparel and private-label merchandise primarily comprising BKE, Buckle Black, Salvage, and Red by BKE, among others.
For the fiscal second quarter ended July 30, 2022, BKE’s sales increased 2.3% year-over-year to $301.98 million. BKE’s gross profit increased 2.3% from the prior-year quarter to $145.37 million. In addition, its total assets increased 3.6% to $809.06 million, compared to total assets of $780.88 million for the fiscal year ended January 29, 2022.
BKE’s consensus revenue estimate of $332.50 million for the quarter ending October 31, 2022, indicates a 4.1% increase year-over-year. ItsEPS for fiscal 2024 is expected to increase 6.8% year-over-year to $5.44.
It has a commendable earnings surprise history, beating the consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. Over the past three months, the stock has gained 18.2% to close the last trading session at $34.80.
BKE’s strong fundamentals are reflected in its POWR Ratings. BKE has an overall rating of B, which equates to a Buy in our proprietary rating system. The POWR Ratings assess stocks by 118 different factors, each with its own weighting.
It is ranked #8 out of 67 stocks in the Fashion & Luxuryindustry. It has an A grade for Quality and a B for Sentiment.
We have also given BKE grades for Growth, Value, Momentum, and Stability. Get all BKE ratings here.
MOV designs, sources, markets, and distributes watches worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Watch and Accessory Brands and Company Stores. It offers its watches under the Movado, Concord, Ebel, Olivia Burton, and MVMT brands, as well as licensed brands, such as Coach, Tommy Hilfiger, HUGO BOSS, Lacoste, Calvin Klein, and Scuderia Ferrari.
On May 25, 2022, MOV published its 2022 Corporate Responsibility report. The report details the evolution of MOV’s Corporate Responsibility program and announces MOV’s 2025 Make Time plan. Efraim Grinberg, Chairman and CEO of MOV, said, “Our main goal outlined in the report is to empower our employees to ‘Make Time’ for impactful, long-term ESG improvements that ultimately strengthen the Movado Group community and brand.”
For the fiscal second quarter ended July 31, 2022, MOV’s net sales gained 5.1% year-over-year to $182.80 million. The company’s gross profit increased 8.6% year-over-year to $106.92 million. In addition, its non-GAAP net income attributable to MOV increased 22.4% year-over-year to $24.57 million. Also, its non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.07, representing an increase of 25.9% year-over-year.
MOV’s consensus revenue estimate of $225.60 million for the quarter ending October 31, 2022, indicates an increase of 3.6% year-over-year. Its EPS for fiscal 2023 is expected to increase 7.4% year-over-year to $4.23. The company has a commendable earnings surprise history, surpassing the consensus EPS in each of the trailing four quarters. Over the past month, the stock has gained 1.4% to close the last trading session at $30.82.
MOV’s strong fundamentals are reflected in its POWR Ratings. MOV has an overall rating of B, which equates to a Buy in our proprietary rating system. It has an A grade for Quality. It is ranked #3 in the Fashion & Luxury industry.
To see the other ratings of MOV for Growth, Value, Momentum, Stability, and Sentiment, click here.
JILL operates as an omnichannel retailer of women’s apparel under the J.Jill brand in the United States. The company offers knit and woven tops, bottoms, dresses, sweaters, outerwear, footwear, and accessories, including scarves, jewelry, and hosiery.
On August 4, 2022, JILL launched Welcome Everybody, a new shopping experience online and in its stores, celebrating all women’s totality and marking a transformative moment in the brand’s evolution. Claire Spofford, CEO and President of JILL believes that this venture could modernize the company’s value proposition, introduce new customers to relevant and compelling products, and communicate what it offers.
JILL’s net sales for the second quarter ended July 30, 2022, increased marginally from the year-ago period to $160.34 million. The company’s gross profit rose 2.8% year-over-year to $112.47 million. Also, its adjusted EBITDA gained 8.8% year-over-year to $35.57 million.
Analysts expect JILL’s EPS and revenue for fiscal 2023 to increase 26.8% and 4% year-over-year to $2.70 and $608.80 million, respectively. JILL has an impressive earnings surprise history, surpassing the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters. Over the past nine months, the stock has gained 30% to close the last trading session at $19.16.
JILL’s POWR Ratings reflect solid prospects. The company has an overall rating of A, which equates to a Strong Buy. It is ranked #2 in the same industry. In addition, it has an A grade for Sentiment and Quality and a B for Value.
To see the other ratings of JILL for Growth, Momentum, and Stability, click here.
GPS operates as an apparel retail company. The company offers apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta brands. Its products include denim, tees, fleece, and khakis; eyewear, jewelry, shoes, handbags, and fragrances; and fitness and lifestyle products.
GPS’ net sales decreased 8.3% year-over-year to $3.86 billion for the second quarter ended July 30, 2022. The company’s operating loss came in at $28 million, compared to an operating income of $409 million. Its non-GAAP net income declined 89% year-over-year to $30 million. Also, its adjusted EPS decreased 88.6% year-over-year to $0.08.
Analysts expect GPS’ revenue for the quarter ending October 31, 2022, to decrease 3.2% year-over-year to $3.82 billion. Its revenue for fiscal 2023 is expected to decline 6.4% year-over-year to $15.61 billion. Over the past year, the stock has fallen 57% to close the last trading session at $9.92.
GPS’ poor fundamentals are reflected in its POWR Ratings. GPS has an overall rating of D, equating to a Sell in our proprietary rating system. Within the Fashion & Luxury industry, it is ranked #60. The company has a D grade for Stability.
Click here to see the additional POWR Ratings of GPS for Growth, Value, Momentum, Sentiment, and Quality.
GPS shares were trading at $9.72 per share on Thursday afternoon, down $0.20 (-2.02%). Year-to-date, GPS has declined -41.96%, versus a -22.17% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
About the Author: Dipanjan Banchur
Since he was in grade school, Dipanjan was interested in the stock market. This led to him obtaining a master’s degree in Finance and Accounting. Currently, as an investment analyst and financial journalist, Dipanjan has a strong interest in reading and analyzing emerging trends in financial markets.
Disclosure: Our goal is to feature products and services that we think you’ll find interesting and useful. If you purchase them, Entrepreneur may get a small share of the revenue from the sale from our commerce partners.
Did you know that the short-term rental market has now soared past a $1.2 trillion valuation? This stat comes directly from Airbnb‘s recent IPO filing, which we should remind you took place against all odds…in the middle of a pandemic. What is even more staggering is that there is more potential for the valuation of this market to soar even more when you look at the combination of existing demand, the post-pandemic travel boom, and the shift towards remote working.
reAlphaReAlpha
Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky recently went on record stating that they are short millions of hosts. If you remember your first year economics class, this means that demand is outpacing supply. So, one might conclude that now may be a great time to start buying some short-term rentals of your own. However, real estate startups are on a historic climb and a look at national and even international Airbnb listings is enough to give anyone sticker shock.
There was a 25 percent surge in demand for short-term rentals in destination and resort locations between 2019 and 2021. This year, the average cost on an Airbnb rental was about $160 a day during the first quarter, a rise of about 35 percent over the same period in 2020. By the third quarter, hosts generated a staggering $12.8 billion through the platform.
It’s all just the latest proof that the age-old path of propertyownership is key to investing riches. Of course, that morsel of knowledge is nothing new. Many billionaires hold anywhere from 20 percent to 40 percent of their net worth in real estate. However, real estate investing (especially with short-term rentals) can be expensive and time-consuming, effectively screening out the everyday investor from this lucrative sector. Simply put, it’s much more tricky than just investing in $ABNB stock on Robinhood.
However, Real estate startup reAlpha is changing that. They use artificial intelligence and the power of their world-class team to revolutionize investment in this growing market for everyone, enabling them to purchase partial property ownership and make passive profits without any of the headaches of most real estate deals.
Right now, investors aren’t limited only buying into short term rental properties with reAlpha. They can literally buy into reAlpha itself during its current Reg A+ stock offer, becoming a shareholder in the company’s entire portfolio and industry-disrupting business model.
With reAlpha, everyday investors can join this new era of real estate.
The reAlpha approach to finding and buying high earning potential rental properties is as simple as it is groundbreaking. Using their proprietary algorithm fueled by machine learning, reAlpha scores each property on a variety of factors, predicting the short-term rental viability and long term value of each property.
Under the guidance of a broker-dealer, reAlpha investors search those top-rated prospective properties, then buy into the ones they like, just like they’d buy a stock on Robinhood. The reAlpha process pairs those like-minded investors together to buy the property, often with just 10 percent as a down payment as opposed to the usual 25 percent required.
Unlike when you buy a property yourself, reAlpha is a 51 percent stakeholder as well and handles all the particulars, including renovations, rentals, and all the ongoing maintenance. While reAlpha does all the heavy lifting, members can sit back and benefit from the fractional ownership model, earning their share of rental profits, all while the property appreciates in value. And, syndicate members can even stay at the properties they’ve invested in during select black-out dates—making their investment all the more real.
Get in on the ground floor and invest in reAlpha’s ongoing growth.
Of course, property values aren’t the only things growing. During their current Reg A+ public offering, reAlpha is offering company stock to those who see the potential in disrupting the $1.2 Trillion short-term rental market.
To purchase shares in reAlpha, interested investors can visit their page, access offering information, and find out more about buying into the company. reAlpha is poised to turn the short-term rental market on its ear, so savvy investors can help build the company. Invest in reAlpha’s future before their fundraising campaign ends on December 8th,2022..
Prices are subject to change
AN OFFERING STATEMENT REGARDING THIS OFFERING HAS BEEN FILED WITH THE SEC. THE SEC HAS QUALIFIED THAT OFFERING STATEMENT, WHICH ONLY MEANS THAT THE COMPANY MAY MAKE SALES OF THE SECURITIES DESCRIBED BY THE OFFERING STATEMENT. IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE SEC HAS APPROVED, PASSED UPON THE MERITS OR PASSED UPON THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION IN THE OFFERING STATEMENT. THE OFFERING CIRCULAR THAT IS PART OF THAT OFFERING STATEMENT IS AT: HTTPS://SEC.REPORT/DOCUMENT/0001213900-21-047649/ YOU SHOULD READ THE OFFERING CIRCULAR BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT.
40 year investment veteran Steve Reitmeister shares his #1 investment for 2023 that should easily top the S&P 500 (SPY). However, timing WHEN you get into this trade is the real battle. Read on below for the full story.
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Right now its mid-October 2022 as I write about my favorite pick for 2023. And right now I am extremely bearish on the short term outlook expecting stocks to find bottom between 2,800 to 3,200 by early 2023.
But then things become glorious for the bulls.
Because from that darkest hour stocks will rise with gusto. We are truly talking about the “phoenix rising from the ashes” which is how all new bull markets begin.
In fact, going all the way back to 1900, the average first year gain for new bull markets is +46.2%.
Now consider that small caps generally rise 20% more than large caps in the S&P 500 (SPY).
Now consider that using 3X leverage in this small cap ETF could easily lead to first year returns north of 100%.
Now you understand why I am pounding the table on buying this 3X ETF focused on small cap stocks for 2023. I am referring to Direxion Small Cap Bull 3X ETF (TNA)
This sounds great except for one thing….WHEN do you buy it?
If you buy too early, and the market is still racing lower, you will have tremendous losses on your hands. So I caution against just blindly buying it without some consideration for determining market bottom.
Again, right now it is October 2022. So this is an evolving story that needs vigilant watch on all the key indicators like employment, earnings, inflation, Fed rates and price action. That is the only way to determine when it may be time to enact this TNA trade.
If you would like some help with timing the market bottom, and when to buy into this TNA trade, then please sign up to get my free market commentary. Not only do I provide constant updates on the market outlook, but also timely trading strategy and top picks.
TNA shares were trading at $32.02 per share on Wednesday morning, down $1.18 (-3.55%). Year-to-date, TNA has declined -62.22%, versus a -21.08% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
About the Author: Steve Reitmeister
Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.
While much-larger industry peer UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) tends to get attention, large-cap managed-care provider Molina (NYSE: MOH) has shown better price strength in recent months.
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With a market capitalization of $20.89 billion, Molina is large enough to be tracked by the S&P 500, but it’s dwarfed by UnitedHealth’s market cap of $482.59 billion.
When evaluating a stock, it’s also a good idea to compare it against its broader sector. That can show you whether the stock is a top-performing outlier, or whether there is some strength in its sector or sub-industry.
In Molina’s case, you can compare it to the S&P large-cap healthcare sector using the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLV). That ETF is underperforming Molina by a wide margin, with a year-to-date decline of 9.14%.
As a whole, the managed care industry is doing better than many others. Most of the big players have slightly different business models, with Molina specializing in health insurance through government-administered programs, including Medicare and Medicaid.
In a possible harbinger for other insurers, UnitedHealth topped analysts’ views when it reported earnings on October 14.
Molina broke out of a cup-with-handle base in mid-March and rallied to a high of $350.19 on April 21 before rolling over. That timing is notable, because the S&P 500 made multiple failed rally attempts, and on April 21, an attempt fizzled well below its previous high of 4818, reached in early January.
Molina went on to form a constructive double-bottom pattern, with a low of $249.78 on June 17. That undercut the previous structure low of $263.64 from January, which set the stage for a new run-up. It may seem a bit counterintuitive, but when a stock falls to a level where institutions see the benefit of scooping up shares at a lower valuation, a new rally can begin.
After clearing a buy point above $315.91, Molina began crafting a flat base in late August. Shares rallied to an all-time high of $362.75 on October 14. The stock was trading lower, along with the broader market, on Wednesday.
With any stock that’s posted market-beating price gains, the question always is: Can the rally be sustained?
Some of the upward price action is dependent on the broader market, as well as the company’s own prospects. MarketBeat earnings data show Molina growing revenue at double-digit rates in each of the past eight quarters. Bottom-line growth has been more erratic, but Molina beat analysts’ views for four quarters in a row.
The company reports third-quarter results on October 26, with analysts expecting earnings of $4.25 per share on revenue of $7.69 billion. Both would be year-over-year increases.
Molina certainly has some characteristics of a growth stock, but its price-to-earnings ratio of 24 is not outlandish, and at any rate, growth investors are generally OK with paying up for a stock whose future seems bright.
Wall Street expects Molina to earn $17.71 per share this year, a 31% increase. Next year, analysts see the company earning $20.08 per share, a gain of another 17%. MarketBeat analyst data show a consensus rating of “hold” with a price target of $345.20, down slightly from where the stock was trading Wednesday.
Better-than-expected corporate earnings and stubbornly high inflation numbers may be enough to convince the Fed to continue with its aggressive rate hikes, thereby dampening market sentiments. With the market volatility set to continue in the foreseeable future, it could be wise to buy fundamentally strong stocks Comcast (CMCSA) and Energy Transfer (ET) and hold it forever. Continue reading….
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While the markets seem temporarily buoyed by better-than-expected earnings and easing of the turmoil in the U.K., the latest inflation data will keep investors worried. The hotter-than-expected employment and inflation reports are expected to keep the Fed on track to respond with a fourth consecutive 75-bps rate hike in its meeting next month. Therefore, the stock market will likely remain under pressure.
“When you’re in the throes of a bear market, to see meaningful moves higher for stocks, you also need to see a big move in the bond markets. You need yields to meaningfully fall,” said Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird. However, with persistent macroeconomic headwinds, the yields on U.S. government bonds have been climbing higher.
With a soft landing for the economy increasingly seeming like an improbable scenario, markets are expected to witness heightened volatility in the upcoming months. Hence, loading up shares of companies with fundamental strength, pricing power, attractive dividend records, and long-term growth would be the best strategy for generating stable returns.
Hence, we think it could be wise to buy fundamentally solid stocks, Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) and Energy Transfer LP (ET), and hold them forever.
CMCSA is a global media and technology company. It operates through three segments: Cable Communications; Media; Studios; Theme Parks; and Sky.
On September 21, 2022, CMCSA announced that it is working with Samsung to deliver 5G Radio Access Network (RAN) solutions that can be used to enhance 5G connectivity for Xfinity Mobile and Comcast Business Mobile customers in Comcast service areas. The company expects this to deliver more next-generation applications and services to its customers seamlessly.
On September 14, CMCSA announced an expansion in its share repurchase authorization to a total of $20.0 billion, with $9 billion worth of shares repurchased to date. This demonstrates the company’s financial strength and commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
On July 28, CMCSA declared its quarterly dividend of $0.27 a share on the company’s common stock, payable on October 26, 2022. The company pays $1.08 as a dividend annually, which translates to a yield of 3.5% at the current price. This compares favorably to the 4-year average dividend yield of 2.02%.
CMCSA’s dividend payouts have grown for the past five years at an 11.7% CAGR.
For the second quarter of the fiscal year 2022 ended June 30, CMCSA’s revenue increased 5.1% year-over-year to $30.02 billion. During the same period, the company’s adjusted EBITDA increased 10.1% year-over-year to $9.83 billion, while its adjusted net income increased 14.3% year-over-year to $4.51 billion. As a result, its adjusted EPS grew 20.2% year-over-year to $1.01.
Analysts expect CMCSA’s revenue to increase 4.5% year-over-year to $121.57 billion in the current fiscal year, ending December 31, 2022, while its EPS is expected to grow 11% year-over-year to $3.59 for the same period. Also, the company has an impressive earnings history, surpassing the consensus EPS estimates in each of the four trailing quarters.
The stock has gained 7.2% over the past five days to close the last trading session at $30.75.
CMCSA’s POWR Ratings reflect its promising outlook. It has an overall rating of A, which equates to a Strong Buy in our proprietary rating system. The POWR Ratings are calculated considering 118 different factors, with each factor weighted to an optimal degree.
ET owns and operates a portfolio of energy assets in the United States. The company sells natural gas to electric utilities, independent power plants, local distribution, and industrial end-users.
On August 24, 2022, ET announced that its subsidiary, Energy Transfer LNG Export, LLC, has entered into a 20-year LNG Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Shell NA LNG LLC related to its Lake Charles LNG project. Under the agreement, Energy Transfer LNG will supply Shell with 2.1 million tonnes of LNG per annum (mtpa). This SPA is expected to boost the company’s revenue streams.
On August 19, ET paid a quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share. The company pays $0.92 as a dividend annually, translating to a yield of 7.86% on the current price. The 4-year average yield stands at an impressive 10.45%. The company’s payout ratio is 60.6%, and its dividends have grown at a 1.9% CAGR over the last ten years.
In addition, ET announced the completion of the sale of its 51% interest in Energy Transfer Canada ULC (Energy Transfer Canada). The company expects the sale of these assets would allow it to deleverage its balance sheet further and redeploy capital within its footprint across the United States.
During the fiscal 2022 second quarter ended June 30, 2022, ET’s revenue increased 71.8% year-over-year to $25.95 billion. Its operating income grew 32.3% year-over-year to $2.11 billion. The company’s adjusted EBITDA amounted to $3.23 billion, up 23.4% year-over-year.
Furthermore, the company’s net income attributable to partners and net income per common unit came in at $1.33 billion and $0.39, registering increases of 111.8% and 95% from the prior-year period, respectively.
Analysts expect ET’s revenue and EPS for the fourth quarter of the current fiscal (ending December 2022) to increase 29.5% and 37.5% year-over-year to $24.16 billion and $0.38, respectively. The company has topped the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.
ET’s stock has gained 35.4% year-to-date to close the last trading session at $11.79.
ET’s strong performance and stable prospects have earned it an overall rating of B, which equates to a Buy in our POWR Ratings system. It has an A grade for Momentum and a B grade for Value.
ET is ranked #32 among 94 stocks in the B-rated Energy-Oil & Gas industry.
Beyond what has been discussed above, we have also given ET grades for Sentiment, Growth, Quality, and Stability. Get access to all ET ratings here.
CMCSA shares were unchanged in after-hours trading Wednesday. Year-to-date, CMCSA has declined -38.02%, versus a -21.52% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
About the Author: Santanu Roy
Having been fascinated by the traditional and evolving factors that affect investment decisions, Santanu decided to pursue a career as an investment analyst. Prior to his switch to investment research, he was a process associate at Cognizant.
With a master’s degree in business administration and a fundamental approach to analyzing businesses, he aims to help retail investors identify the best long-term investment opportunities.
London — British inflation jumped back above 10 percent in September on soaring food prices, official data showed Wednesday, with the country gripped by a cost-of-living crisis bedeviling the government. The Consumer Prices Index accelerated to 10.1 percent on an annual basis, up from 9.9 percent in August, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement.
The September rate matched the level in July and is the highest in 40 years as a result also of sky-high energy bills.
“I understand that families across the country are struggling with rising prices and higher energy bills,” Britain’s new finance minister Jeremy Hunt said in a separate statement. “This government will prioritize help for the most vulnerable while delivering wider economic stability and driving long-term growth that will help everyone.”
The government has been rocked by chaos in markets in the wake of a budget that pledged tax cuts that would have been funded by state debt. Most of those measures have since been reversed, leaving Prime Minister Liz Truss fighting to save her job.
Britain’s Prime Minister Liz Truss looks down during a press conference in the Downing Street Briefing Room in central London, October 14, 2022, following the sacking of the finance minister in response to a budget that sparked chaos in the financial markets.
DANIEL LEAL/POOL/AFP/Getty
Following widespread criticism over the budget, Truss sacked Hunt’s predecessor, Kwasi Kwarteng, after less than six weeks in the role.
Analysts said Wednesday’s data would put pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising its main interest rate by sizeable amounts. Capital Economics noted that the BoE could hike its rate by as much as one percentage point to 3.25 percent at its next meeting in November.
People walk past the Bank of England in London, September 28, 2022.
Frank Augstein/AP
Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said inflation was “the most pressing economic problem facing the Bank of England as well as the government.
“Without price stability, the cost-of-living crisis will continue to weigh on the economy by squeezing household budgets and dampening business margins.”
In a bid to help households, the government has capped domestic energy bills until April. However, the original plan was for a cap until late 2024, which Truss pulled earlier this week.
Markets were left spooked that a budget of tax cuts and a costly energy-price cap would add massively to British debt that had already ballooned on government support during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Her budget sent the pound plunging to a record-low against the dollar and caused yields on government bonds to soar – forcing Truss into a huge budget U-turn that has calmed markets.
Following Wednesday’s data, the pound was down against the dollar and euro, while London’s FTSE 100 shares index steadied at the open.
Shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) are down slightly despite the company scoring a double beat for its third quarter earnings. J&J reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.55 on revenue of $23.79 billion. This was better than the analysts’ forecast for EPS of $2.49 on revenue of $23.43 billion. However, the EPS number was 1.9% lower than in the same quarter the prior year. But the stock is down about 0.5% in late-day trading due to the company’s guidance. For the full year 2022, the company is also lowering (i.e. tightening) its guidance for the rest of the year. J&J now says it expects EPS to reach a midpoint of $10.05 with midpoint revenue of $93.3 billion. Analysts were estimating $10.03 earnings pers share and $94.85 billion.
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The company cited a stronger dollar which is decreasing the value of its international sales, as the reason for the tighter forecast.
To be fair, if J&J hit the midpoint of its earnings forecast it would be a 7% increase from 2021. That’s not bad at a time when an earnings recession is being forecast. And JNJ stock is seen as a defensive play which has typically done well in bear markets. But there is one issue that makes longer-term forecasts uncertain.
Balancing Alpha and Beta
Like most industries, investing has its own language. Two common terms or Alpha and Beta. Alpha refers to finding profit in the market. For obvious reasons, traders and investors are looking for companies that have a consistent track record of positive (and growing) revenue and earnings. These stocks are sought after because they are likely to outperform the market.
Beta on the other hand is a measurement is how a stock performs relative to the broader market. High beta stocks are considered to be more volatile than the overall market. This means when the market is up these stocks tend to be higher. But when the market goes down, these stocks tend to fall more than the broader market.
Conversely, a low beta stock is one that has less dramatic price swings. This means it has higher highs during a bull market; but it will also have lower lows – which can help investors manage risk during a bear market.
Johnson & Johnson is squarely in the low beta category. The question that investors are weighing is if the company will deliver enough revenue to be an investment in this bear market.
Is Kenvue the Band-Aid the Company Needs?
An unresolved issue for Johnson & Johnson is the announced spinoff of its consumer division. The new company, which will be named Kenvue, will house some of the company’s iconic brands such as Tylenol, Band-Aid, and Johnson’s Baby Powder.
By itself, the spinoff is a non-event. In recent years, Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) spun off AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) and Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) made a similar move with Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ). And the company says the reason behind the move is that the consumer health market is diverging from the company’s other core businesses.
And to be fair, the consumer products division posted a decline in revenue in the current quarter. This is due to several factors including the pressure from private label brands in the space.
Still, the products that will be part of Kenvue accounted for nearly $15 billion ($14.6) in revenue which was 16% of the company’s total sales. And the effect of that is already being implied as the company announced it will be cutting some jobs as it downsizes from three business units to two.
Is JNJ Stock a Buy?
I’ll waffle on this just a bit. It’s not NOT a buy. Especially when you consider that the company is a Dividend King having increased its dividend for 60 consecutive years. At a time when inflation is eating away at our portfolios, that’s not something to ignore.
But it remains to be seen how the company will make up for the revenue it’s losing with the spinoff of Kenvue. If that concerns you, there are other dividend stocks that can do the same work. But if you currently own JNJ stock, there’s no reason to sell. The stock is still likely to be a safe harbor in the current bear market.
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
The process of starting a business from scratch can be very daunting and time-consuming. There are many things to consider, such as business structure, marketing, R&D/product development (if you’re creating something), raising capital, finance, legal matters, etc. One of the first things you need to look at when starting a business is simply the amount of money it’ll take to get the business off the ground. For many people, it can be difficult to come up with or raise the initial investment needed to start a business from scratch.
Let me be clear here, I’m not advocating against anyone starting a business or anyone building a new company at all. I’ve conceptualized at least 15 or so different business ideas and was able to bring a handful of them to life, although many didn’t get off the ground or even go to market for that matter.
I think all entrepreneurs, at some point in time, should get their hands dirty in creating something from scratch. I think most will probably conceptualize an idea or two that they want to take to market because it may be the next greatest “thing,” in their specific target marketplace, and they’ll have an awesome learning experience doing so — and some will inevitably achieve the success that they imagined they would.
With that being said, though, I think that the notion of buying an existing business may be a much better option both from a fiscal responsibility standpoint (and pragmatically, for that matter). When you buy a business, you’re acquiring a customer base, established systems and processes, potential assets (physical and digital) and much, much more!
Another reason buying a business makes sense is that you can usually get it at a discount. This is because businesses often sell for less than their actual value, since the owner(s) may be motivated to sell quickly due to personal or financial reasons. And lastly, an existing business comes with an established reputation and goodwill, which can save you a lot of time and money in marketing and advertising costs.
These factors alone can give you a significant advantage over businesses that are starting from scratch. But the key to success in purchasing a business is finding “the right business” to purchase. It’s subjective, I know, but there are some general frameworks that you can use to guide you and aid in your journey to evaluating and eventually closing on your first business acquisition.
There are more businesses for sale today than there are buyers
As you may or may not know, businesses for sale have grown exponentially in the last decade. There are many reasons for this, including the current state of the economy, retirement and quite a few others.
Business owners are facing financial difficulties in some instances and are unable to continue operating their businesses. While it may not seem like a good thing, in a down economy, there is an opportunity for those looking to purchase a business. I’m not suggesting that it’s a time to take advantage of someone, but I am saying that you can acquire businesses for fair prices, in some cases, well under market value.
There’s a significant cohort of business owners who are about to enter or seeking to enter retirement. They may not have family members or children to pass their business on to, so in some cases, businesses simply go out of business or cease to exist. Herein lies an opportunity, for you, as someone seeking to become a business owner.
It’s easier for existing businesses to generate cash flow
Simply put, cash flow is the lifeblood of any business, big or small. It’s the money coming in and going out, and it needs to be managed carefully to ensure the business is healthy and profitable.
It is generally easier for an existing business to generate cash flow than for a startup business or brand-new company. This is because an existing business typically has revenue streams from customers and other sources, while a startup or new company may not yet have any of those things. An existing business should be generating income through existing channels or specific sources that it currently employs.
Increasing cash flow is just as important as reducing expenses when it comes to boosting profitability. A business can only grow if it has enough cash on hand to invest in new opportunities. Remember: Increasing cash flow is essential for long-term success in any business.
You’re purchasing a proven model
When you’re starting a business, one of the inevitable questions that you’ll be asking yourself is “How am I (or how are we) going to make money?” Fortunately, this isn’t necessarily one that you’re going to have to answer if you’re buying an existing business. Existing companies typically have proven revenue models. This means that they’ve successfully sold and continue to sell its products or services. The repeatability of this model is what you’re looking for when you’re purchasing a company.
A startup business, on the other hand, may not have a proven revenue model because it has not yet sold its products or services. This can be due to a variety of reasons, such as the company being new and therefore having no track record, or because the products or services are not yet ready for market. Either way, a lack of a proven revenue model can be a major obstacle for a startup business.
There are many reasons to buy an existing business instead of starting one from scratch. Perhaps (as I’ve mentioned), the most compelling reason is that you’re buying a proven business model. The riskiest part of starting a new business is figuring out whether your business model will actually work and be profitable. With an existing business, you know that the business model works and that the business can be profitable.
Hopefully, I’ve inspired you to jump-start your journey toward acquiring your first existing business! Remember, you need to completely educate yourself in business before you start trying to acquire them. There are inherent, built-in risks associated with business ownership that so many fail to recognize or understand. This isn’t meant to discourage you, it’s simply to let you know that the details really do matter in business, so don’t overlook them!
Today, as the MarketBeat Podcast celebrates the milestone of Episode 50, Kate welcomes back a popular guest, Jason Brown of the Brown Report. Today, he discusses three widely held large caps. If you don’t own these as individual stocks, you may own them inside index funds. Their sheer size means they have influence over index direction. Jason presents a strong bull case for the future of each stock, regardless of the current market downturn. And he shares why he believes they are likely to hold near recent support levels, rather than continue falling. In today’s episode, Kate and Jason discuss: Why Amazon could be considered a “good company” because it has carved out a secure role as a company consumers trust to buy the goods they need and want. It’s hard for other companies to compete with that. Jason believes the downside potential for Amazon is limited, but based on the chart, he sees more room to grow to the upside. He walks listeners through some of the price points he’s seeing. What is the significance of the “unknown” business (at least to consumers) Amazon Web Servers, which has huge corporations as customers? Jason’s next stock is Google/Alphabet, which he believes is one of the best positioned to emerge from the post-pandemic, interest-rate driven selloff Why Google’s ad-based business model is likely to hold up even in a recession, or gas price increases or interest-rate hikes, even if some advertisers slash spending Jason’s third stock is Tesla, where he sees ongoing potential due to the business itself, and the stock’s chart Why Jason says it’s more important to look at Tesla’s future, not the news today, such as disappointing Q3 deliveries Is there upside in not-yet-available products such as electric boats and motorcycles? Why Tesla’s focus on EVs means it can continue growing without distractions, as the legacy automakers have How to find Jason, and download the Stock Market Starter Pack and Stock Options Starter Pack: https://thebrownreport.com/ Let’s all become smarter investors together. Subscribe to the MarketBeat Podcast today.