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Tag: debt

  • SVB’s failure proves the U.S. needs tighter banking regulations so that all customers’ money is safe

    SVB’s failure proves the U.S. needs tighter banking regulations so that all customers’ money is safe

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    The run on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) SIVB— on which nearly half of all venture-backed tech start-ups in the United States depend — is in part a rerun of a familiar story, but it’s more than that. Once again, economic policy and financial regulation has proven inadequate.

    The news about the second-biggest bank failure in U.S. history came just days after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell assured Congress that the financial condition of America’s banks was sound. But the timing should not be surprising. Given the large and…

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  • Hedge funds and banks offer to buy deposits trapped at Silicon Valley Bank

    Hedge funds and banks offer to buy deposits trapped at Silicon Valley Bank

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    Hedge funds are offering to buy startup deposits at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) for as little as 60 cents on the dollar, Semafor reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter.

    Bids range from 60 to 80 cents on the dollar, the report said adding that the range reflects expectations for how much of the uninsured deposits will be eventually recovered once the bank’s assets are sold or wound down.

    Firms like Oaktree which are known for investing in distressed debt are contacting startup businesses after SVB’s
    SIVB,
    -60.41%

    seizure by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC), the report said.

    Traders from investment bank Jefferies are also contacting startup founders with deposits at the bank, offering to buy their deposit claims at a discount, The Information reported separately.

    Jefferies is offering at least 70 cents on the dollar for deposit claims, the report said, citing several people with direct knowledge of the matter.

    Oaktree declined to comment on the reports. Jefferies could not be immediately reached for comment.

    Silicon Valley Bank was taken over by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on Friday after depositors, concerned about the lender’s financial health, rushed to withdraw their their deposits. The two-day run on the bank stunned markets, wiping out more than $100 billion in market value for U.S. banks.

    See: Silicon Valley Bank branches closed by regulator in biggest bank failure since Washington Mutual

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  • 20 banks that are sitting on huge potential securities losses—as was SVB

    20 banks that are sitting on huge potential securities losses—as was SVB

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    Silicon Valley Bank has failed following a run on deposits, after its parent company’s share price crashed a record 60% on Thursday.

    Trading of SVB Financial Group’s
    SIVB,
    -60.41%

    stock was halted early Friday, after the shares plunged again in premarket trading. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said SVB was one of a few banks she was “monitoring very carefully.” Reaction poured in from several analysts who discussed the bank’s liquidity risk.

    California regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank and handed the wreckage over to the Federal Deposit Insurance Administration later on Friday.

    Below is the same list of 10 banks we highlighted on Thursday that showed similar red flags to those shown by SVB Financial through the fourth quarter. This time, we will show how much they reported in unrealized losses on securities — an item that played an important role in SVB’s crisis.

    Below that is a screen of U.S. banks with at least $10 billion in total assets, showing those that appeared to have the greatest exposure to unrealized securities losses, as a percentage of total capital, as of Dec. 31.

    First, a quick look at SVB

    Some media reports have referred to SVB of Santa Clara, Calif., as a small bank, but it had $212 billion in total assets as of Dec. 31, making it the 17th largest bank in the Russell 3000 Index
    RUA,
    -1.70%

    as of Dec. 31. That makes it the largest U.S. bank failure since Washington Mutual in 2008.

    One unique aspect of SVB was its decades-long focus on the venture capital industry. The bank’s loan growth had been slowing as interest rates rose. Meanwhile, when announcing its $21 billion dollars in securities sales on Thursday, SVB said it had taken the action not only to lower its interest-rate risk, but because “client cash burn has remained elevated and increased further in February, resulting in lower deposits than forecasted.”

    SVB estimated it would book a $1.8 billion loss on the securities sale and said it would raise $2.25 billion in capital through two offerings of new shares and a convertible bond offering. That offering wasn’t completed.

    So this appears to be an example of what can go wrong with a bank focused on a particular industry. The combination of a balance sheet heavy with securities and relatively light on loans, in a rising-rate environment in which bond prices have declined and in which depositors specific to that industry are themselves suffering from a decline in cash, led to a liquidity problem.

    Unrealized losses on securities

    Banks leverage their capital by gathering deposits or borrowing money either to lend the money out or purchase securities. They earn the spread between their average yield on loans and investments and their average cost for funds.

    The securities investments are held in two buckets:

    • Available for sale — these securities (mostly bonds) can be sold at any time, and under accounting rules are required to be marked to market each quarter. This means gains or losses are recorded for the AFS portfolio continually. The accumulated gains are added to, or losses subtracted from, total equity capital.

    • Held to maturity — these are bonds a bank intends to hold until they are repaid at face value. They are carried at cost and not marked to market each quarter.

    In its regulatory Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies—FR Y-9C, filed with the Federal Reserve, SVB Financial, reported a negative $1.911 billion in accumulated other comprehensive income as of Dec. 31. That is line 26.b on Schedule HC of the report, for those keeping score at home. You can look up regulatory reports for any U.S. bank holding company, savings and loan holding company or subsidiary institution at the Federal Financial Institution Examination Council’s National Information Center. Be sure to get the name of the company or institution right — or you may be looking at the wrong entity.

    Here’s how accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) is defined in the report: “Includes, but is not limited to, net unrealized holding gains (losses) on available-for-sale securities, accumulated net gains (losses) on cash flow hedges, cumulative foreign currency translation adjustments, and accumulated defined benefit pension and other postretirement plan adjustments.”

    In other words, it was mostly unrealized losses on SVB’s available-for-sale securities. The bank booked an estimated $1.8 billion loss when selling “substantially all” of these securities on March 8.

    The list of 10 banks with unfavorable interest margin trends

    On the regulatory call reports, AOCI is added to regulatory capital. Since SVB’s AOCI was negative (because of its unrealized losses on AFS securities) as of Dec. 31, it lowered the company’s total equity capital. So a fair way to gauge the negative AOCI to the bank’s total equity capital would be to divide the negative AOCI by total equity capital less AOCI — effectively adding the unrealized losses back to total equity capital for the calculation.

    Getting back to our list of 10 banks that raised similar red margin flags to those of SVB, here’s the same group, in the same order, showing negative AOCI as a percentage of total equity capital as of Dec. 31. We have added SVB to the bottom of the list. The data was provided by FactSet:

    Bank

    Ticker

    City

    AOCI ($mil)

    Total equity capital ($mil)

    AOCI/ TEC – AOCI

    Total assets ($mil)

    Customers Bancorp Inc.

    CUBI,
    -13.11%
    West Reading, Pa.

    -$163

    $1,403

    -10.4%

    $20,896

    First Republic Bank

    FRC,
    -14.84%
    San Francisco

    -$331

    $17,446

    -1.9%

    $213,358

    Sandy Spring Bancorp Inc.

    SASR,
    -2.91%
    Olney, Md.

    -$132

    $1,484

    -8.2%

    $13,833

    New York Community Bancorp Inc.

    NYCB,
    -5.99%
    Hicksville, N.Y.

    -$620

    $8,824

    -6.6%

    $90,616

    First Foundation Inc.

    FFWM,
    -9.11%
    Dallas

    -$12

    $1,134

    -1.0%

    $13,014

    Ally Financial Inc.

    ALLY,
    -5.70%
    Detroit

    -$4,059

    $12,859

    -24.0%

    $191,826

    Dime Community Bancshares Inc.

    DCOM,
    -2.81%
    Hauppauge, N.Y.

    -$94

    $1,170

    -7.5%

    $13,228

    Pacific Premier Bancorp Inc.

    PPBI,
    -1.95%
    Irvine, Calif.

    -$265

    $2,798

    -8.7%

    $21,729

    Prosperity Bancshare Inc.

    PB,
    -4.46%
    Houston

    -$3

    $6,699

    -0.1%

    $37,751

    Columbia Financial, Inc.

    CLBK,
    -1.78%
    Fair Lawn, N.J.

    -$179

    $1,054

    -14.5%

    $10,408

    SVB Financial Group

    SIVB,
    -60.41%
    Santa Clara, Calif.

    -$1,911

    $16,295

    -10.5%

    $211,793

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each bank.

    Read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Ally Financial Inc.
    ALLY,
    -5.70%

    — the third largest bank on the list by Dec. 31 total assets — stands out as having the largest percentage of negative accumulated comprehensive income relative to total equity capital as of Dec. 31.

    To be sure, these numbers don’t mean that a bank is in trouble, or that it will be forced to sell securities for big losses. But SVB had both a troubling pattern for its interest margins and what appeared to be a relatively high percentage of securities losses relative to capital as of Dec. 31.

    Banks with the highest percentage of negative AOCI to capital

    There are 108 banks in the Russell 3000 Index
    RUA,
    -1.70%

    that had total assets of at least $10.0 billion as of Dec. 31. FactSet provided AOCI and total equity capital data for 105 of them. Here are the 20 which had the highest ratios of negative AOCI to total equity capital less AOCI (as explained above) as of Dec. 31:

    Bank

    Ticker

    City

    AOCI ($mil)

    Total equity capital ($mil)

    AOCI/ (TEC – AOCI)

    Total assets ($mil)

    Comerica Inc.

    CMA,
    -5.01%
    Dallas

    -$3,742

    $5,181

    -41.9%

    $85,406

    Zions Bancorporation N.A.

    ZION,
    -2.44%
    Salt Lake City

    -$3,112

    $4,893

    -38.9%

    $89,545

    Popular Inc.

    BPOP,
    -1.56%
    San Juan, Puerto Rico

    -$2,525

    $4,093

    -38.2%

    $67,638

    KeyCorp

    KEY,
    -2.55%
    Cleveland

    -$6,295

    $13,454

    -31.9%

    $189,813

    Community Bank System Inc.

    CBU,
    -0.22%
    DeWitt, N.Y.

    -$686

    $1,555

    -30.6%

    $15,911

    Commerce Bancshares Inc.

    CBSH,
    -1.61%
    Kansas City, Mo.

    -$1,087

    $2,482

    -30.5%

    $31,876

    Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.

    CFR,
    -1.08%
    San Antonio

    -$1,348

    $3,137

    -30.1%

    $52,892

    First Financial Bankshares Inc.

    FFIN,
    -0.90%
    Abilene, Texas

    -$535

    $1,266

    -29.7%

    $12,974

    Eastern Bankshares Inc.

    EBC,
    -3.16%
    Boston

    -$923

    $2,472

    -27.2%

    $22,686

    Heartland Financial USA Inc.

    HTLF,
    -1.26%
    Denver

    -$620

    $1,735

    -26.3%

    $20,244

    First Bancorp

    FBNC,
    -0.31%
    Southern Pines, N.C.

    -$342

    $1,032

    -24.9%

    $10,644

    Silvergate Capital Corp. Class A

    SI,
    -11.27%
    La Jolla, Calif.

    -$199

    $603

    -24.8%

    $11,356

    Bank of Hawaii Corp

    BOH,
    -6.15%
    Honolulu

    -$435

    $1,317

    -24.8%

    $23,607

    Synovus Financial Corp.

    SNV,
    -2.91%
    Columbus, Ga.

    -$1,442

    $4,476

    -24.4%

    $59,911

    Ally Financial Inc

    ALLY,
    -5.70%
    Detroit

    -$4,059

    $12,859

    -24.0%

    $191,826

    WSFS Financial Corp.

    WSFS,
    -2.78%
    Wilmington, Del.

    -$676

    $2,202

    -23.5%

    $19,915

    Fifth Third Bancorp

    FITB,
    -4.17%
    Cincinnati

    -$5,110

    $17,327

    -22.8%

    $207,452

    First Hawaiian Inc.

    FHB,
    -3.48%
    Honolulu

    -$639

    $2,269

    -22.0%

    $24,666

    UMB Financial Corp.

    UMBF,
    -3.35%
    Kansas City, Mo.

    -$703

    $2,667

    -20.9%

    $38,854

    Signature Bank

    SBNY,
    -22.87%
    New York

    -$1,997

    $8,013

    -20.0%

    $110,635

    Again, this is not to suggest that any particular bank on this list based on Dec. 31 data is facing the type of perfect storm that has hurt SVB Financial. A bank sitting on large paper losses on its AFS securities may not need to sell them. In fact Comerica Inc.
    CMA,
    -5.01%
    ,
    which tops the list, also improved its interest margin the most over the past four quarters, as shown here.

    But it is interesting to note that Silvergate Capital Corp.
    SI,
    -11.27%
    ,
    which focused on serving clients in the virtual currency industry, made the list. It is shuttering its bank subsidiary voluntarily.

    Another bank on the list facing concern among depositors is Signature Bank
    SBNY,
    -22.87%

    of New York, which has a diverse business model, but has also faced a backlash related to the services it provides to the virtual currency industry. The bank’s shares fell 12% on Thursday and were down another 24% in afternoon trading on Friday.

    Signature Bank said in a statement that it was in a “strong, well-diversified financial position.”

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  • SVB Financial bonds sink to 31 cents on the dollar after failure of Silicon Valley Bank

    SVB Financial bonds sink to 31 cents on the dollar after failure of Silicon Valley Bank

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    Heavy trading in SVB Financial Group’s
    SIVB,

    debt pulled its BBB-rated 10-year bonds as low as 31 cents on the dollar on Friday after subsidiary Silicon Valley Bank was closed by regulators, marking the biggest bank failure since the financial crisis.

    The Santa Clara, Calif.–based financial-services company has been reeling in recent days, with both its stock and bond prices hit hard, after it on Thursday disclosed a $1.8 billion loss from a sale of about $21 billion in securities.

    Its bond prices lost further ground Friday after the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation closed Silicon Valley Bank, placing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in control of its assets.

    Silicon Valley Bank had an estimated $209 billion in total assets and about $175.4 billion in deposits as of Dec. 31, according to the FDIC.

    SVB Financial’s 4.57% bonds due April 2023 traded as low as 31 cents on the dollar on Friday in heavy trading, according to BondCliq. Since the low, the debt traded up to 38.50 cents. A week ago it was fetching 90 cents. Prices on U.S. corporate bonds below 70 cents on the dollar are broadly considered distressed.

    Worries about distress at Silicon Valley Bank, and potential risks in the broader distress in the banking system, have weighed on shares and the debt of financial companies.

    Bonds in the financial sector were broadly under pressure Friday, including debt issued by Bank of America Corp.
    BAC,
    -0.97%
    ,
    JPMorgan Chase and Co.
    JPM,
    +2.70%
    ,
    Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
    GS,
    -3.69%
    ,
    Morgan Stanley
    MS,
    -1.56%

    and other major banks, according to BondCliq.

    Shares of the Invesco KBW Bank ETF
    KBWB,
    -3.26%

    were down 16% on the week through midday Friday, with some investors expressing concern about potential cracks in the financial system following a year of aggressive interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

     Barclays analysts said Friday that they viewed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank as an “isolated event, but that it still “raises risks of broader distress within the banking system” that could throw cold water on talk of a Fed interest-rate hike in March of 50 basis points vs. 25 basis points.

    “Indeed, the possibility of capital losses at other institutions cannot be completely dismissed, with rising policy rates raising banks’ funding costs, more elevated longer-term rates exerting pressure on asset valuations, and potential loan losses related to idiosyncratic credit exposures.”

    Shares of SBV Financial were halted Friday, but they are down about 54% on the year, according to FactSet. The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -1.11%

    was down about 1.2% Friday afternoon, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.82%

    fell 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -1.47%

    was 1.7% lower.

    Deep Dive: 10 banks that may face trouble in the wake of the SVB Financial Group debacle

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  • 4 Ways to Address and Avoid This Startup Killer | Entrepreneur

    4 Ways to Address and Avoid This Startup Killer | Entrepreneur

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    Technical debt occurs when development teams take shortcuts to expedite delivery and build code that later needs to be refactored, i.e., prioritizing speed over perfect code. It is also a tool to get ahead, and if you choose to have technical debt, it must have strategy, intent, reasoning and a payoff plan. Technical debt can occur across many dimensions like in architecture, test automation, infrastructure, organization, process, design and defects.

    In an agile development world, a company always carries a certain amount of technical debt that is considered healthy; only when the threshold is broken does it quickly spirals out. Waterfall teams operate in a zero-tolerance mode for technical debt, a rare and inflexible practice today. Business stakeholders have slightly more tolerance for minor debt and can understand the trade-offs, while technical leaders are tougher on it. However, if you see the situation reversed in your organization, you have bigger problems at play.

    Startups feel the pressure to ship and show momentum forcing some early debt to tradeoff against a delayed launch. If these debt items may grow beyond a point, the traction alone will not yield funding at an ideal valuation. Venture capitalists want their money to scale, and the thought of using it to pay back debt is scary.

    For early-stage companies, taking on too much technical debt causes product destabilization. I have seen teams working for 12 months on customization and then losing another 12 months to merge and stabilize while delaying their fundraising after failing technical due diligence.

    Related: How Should Entrepreneurs Manage Their Debt?

    Valuation implications of technical debt

    Technical debt is real as interest payments — and the installments of these payments — come out of your valuation, manifesting itself on your P/L in multiple ways. Here are several of these ways:

    • Heavy technical debt-laden companies require more headcount to run existing operations and more developer time to build new capabilities.
    • Overheads from the delayed realization of synergies from any acquisition made carrying costs for a longer time.
    • Possible remediation fines in compliance and security breaches
    • Loss of customers and pipeline due to poor customer experience, system outages, degraded performance, timeline delays and inefficient marketing spending.
    • Increased working capital requirements for companies with higher inventory balances.
    • Spikes in cloud spending costs, small CapEx turning into monumental OpEx.
    • Inability to adapt quickly to market changes, causing predatory moves from competitors.
    • Multiple versions of the truth create an inability to convert data into information, slowing and lowering the quality of decision-making.
    • Lower staff productivity and morale; the opportunity cost of management distractions
    • Multiple rejections from venture capitalists create questions on company viability.

    As a startup’s go-to-market becomes feature-rich, the technical debt multiplies and the underlying architecture gets exposed for its limitations. Many startups discover that the short-term technical convenience may have killed the company’s long-term success. The technical foundation of any software product is fundamental to future scaling and maintainability. Startups usually work with an 18–24-month runway between funding rounds, and heavier debt built up in its early days could shorten this runway by a quarter or two.

    Related: A New Economy is Coming. Here Are 5 Ways to Prepare Your Mindset for Personal Success

    Managing technical debt

    Technical debt is always hard to see and easy to feel. One must be conscious about tackling the root causes rather than the visible symptoms.

    1. Admit the problem

    Many technical and business executives do not admit this problem and get defensive during technical due diligence; most savvy VCs can see through this and will not throw money to fix the broken.

    2. Estimate, prioritize and commit

    Remediation must be ongoing and prioritized against growth features, and resources must be committed to resolving it early. It is a tricky situation to manage technical debt while balancing customer needs and new product enhancements. Many startups are guilty of chasing cash flow and traction in the short term but killing their valuations when they come up for funding.

    3. Decompose the problems

    People criticize agile methodologies for being unstructured and lacking adequate planning. However, agile is the new norm aligning with the business velocity needs of the new era. Managing technical debt in agile requires decomposing the product features into shippable pieces aligned with long-term and valuation-driving goals. All technical debt items must be cataloged in the product backlog. I used to scrutinize the backlog for technical debt items when I conducted diligences for funding or M&A; it is a practice professionals follow to the core.

    4. Be disciplined

    The easiest way to avoid and combat technical debt. Good executives understand the cost of short-term velocity and the risk of delivering customer-specific builds. Like financial debt, the longer any debt is ignored, the harder it is to stabilize and scale. Pick the right technologies and make hard decisions to retire them as soon as they are not fit for purpose, and don’t undertake nasty workarounds.

    Related: Five Easy Ways Startups Can Manage Debts From Day One

    Concluding thoughts

    Technical debt and its implications are widespread, and the interest on this is repaid by the hour, even if it is not apparent to the executives. Like financial debt, the technical debt must be paid off as it has suffocated many companies’ growth and pushed some to the verge of bankruptcy.

    Unlike financial debt, growing technical debt has no formal controls like credit committees, treasury staff or asset liability teams to enforce ongoing tracking. Technical debt must be paid off and costs capital — this will eventually come from the company’s future value (like the value robbed out of shareholders and investors.) The technical debt issue is an area of savvy investors’ diligence with much more rigor lately. Many companies don’t get funded or pay the price with a lower valuation when the diligence uncovers material technical debt.

    A level of technical debt is unavoidable and considered the cost of doing business, but it must be handled correctly to ensure a startup’s long-term viability.

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    Nitin Kumar

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  • Dow suffers worst week since June as U.S. stocks end sharply lower after employment report, banking sector fears

    Dow suffers worst week since June as U.S. stocks end sharply lower after employment report, banking sector fears

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    U.S. stocks ended sharply lower Friday as investors parsed mixed signals from the February jobs report amid ongoing concerns about contagion in the banking sector from the troubles at Silicon Valley Bank.

    How stocks traded
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      -1.07%

      dropped 345.22 points, or 1.1%, to close at 31,909.64, its fourth straight day of declines for its longest losing streak since December.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -1.45%

      fell 56.73 points, or 1.4%, to finish at 3,861.59.

    • Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      -1.76%

      sank 199.47 points, or 1.8%, to end at 11,138.89.

    For the week, the Dow sank 4.4%, S&P 500 dropped 4.5% and the Nasdaq shed 4.7%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow booked its worst week since June, the S&P 500 saw its biggest weekly percentage decline since September, and the Nasdaq had its biggest percentage slide since November.

    What drove markets

    U.S. stocks slumped amid investor concerns about the banking sector after the closure of Silicon Valley Bank by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp and in the wake of the monthly employment report released Friday.

    In a sign of investor anxiety, the CBOE Volatility Index
    VIX,
    +9.69%

    was up Friday afternoon at almost 25, after jumping Thursday, according to FactSet data, last check.

    “Bears came out of hibernation this week after waking up to a warning shot from the banking space,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, in emailed comments Friday, pointing to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

    Silicon Valley Bank was closed Friday by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was appointed receiver, with the bank becoming the first FDIC-backed institution to fail this year.

    Read: Bank ETFs fall amid concerns over SVB and ‘crack’ in financial system after rate hikes

    The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
    KRE,
    -4.39%

    was down more than 4% Friday afternoon, FactSet data show, while shares of Bank of America Corp.
    BAC,
    -0.88%

    closed 0.9% lower, Citigroup Inc.
    C,
    -0.53%

    slid 0.5% and JPMorgan Chase & Co.
    JPM,
    +2.54%

    rose 2.5%.

    Worries over the banking sector are “probably overshadowing” the positive aspects of the employment report, said Karim El Nokali, investment strategist at Schroders, in a phone interview Friday.

    The U.S. employment report for February showed the labor market continued to grow at a robust pace last month, with the U.S. economy adding 311,000 jobs, more than the 225,000 that economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected.

    But “if you dig a little deeper” into the report, average hourly earnings came in “a little lighter than expected” while labor-force participation ticked up, which are positive developments from an inflation standpoint, said El Nokali.

    Average hourly wages grew by 0.2%, a slower rate than the 0.3% rate economists had expected. It was also less than the 0.3% increase in January. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.6%, helped by an increase in the labor-force participation rate.

    “On the margin,” said El Nokali, the employment report was “positive for the equity market.” He said it would “probably argue more” for the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its policy meeting later this month, as opposed to a 50-basis-point hike that investors had been fearing leading up to the employment data.

    See: Jobs report shows strong 311,000 gain in February, puts pressure on Fed for bigger rate hike

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this week that the “totality” of jobs and inflation data would determine whether the central bank would go back to raising its policy interest rate by another 50 basis points at its meeting later in March.

    After climbing earlier in the week, odds of a 50-basis-point rate hike by the Fed have moderated over the past 24 hours. Traders now see a 62% chance of the central bank raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

    Meanwhile, Treasury yields sank Friday.

    The yield on the 2-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.594%

    dropped 31.4 basis points to 4.586%, while the 10-year Treasury yields fell 22.8 basis points to 3.694%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Treasury yield curve remains massively inverted, which has contributed to banks’ woes.

    Companies in focus

    —Steve Goldstein contributed to this report.

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  • Jobs report shows strong 311,000 gain in February, puts pressure on Fed for bigger rate hike

    Jobs report shows strong 311,000 gain in February, puts pressure on Fed for bigger rate hike

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    The numbers: The U.S. created a robust 311,000 new jobs in February, raising the odds of another sharp hike in interest rates by the Federal Reserve later this month.

    Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast 225,000 new jobs.

    The increase in employment last month followed a revised 504,000 gain (initially 517,000) in January, the government said Friday.

    The large back-to-back increases could force the Fed to raise interest rates higher than it had planned to slow the economy and loosen up the tightest labor market in decades. The central bank meets March 21-22 to plot its next move.

    A sign advertises job openings outside a business in Illinois. Lots of companies are still hiring, but the economy has slowed and job creation is likely to as well.


    Scott Olson/Getty Images

    Yet there were a few glimmers of hope for the Fed.

    The unemployment rate rose a few ticks to 3.6%. Hourly wages rose just 0.2% to mark the smallest increase in a year. And the share of able-bodied people in the labor force climbed to a three-year high.

    All of these are pressure valves on the labor market and the broader economy from high inflation.

    Investors appeared to put more weight on those factors than another big increase in employment. Stocks rose and bond yields fell.

    Big picture: An expanding U.S. economy has shown lots of resilience in the face of rising interest rates, but analysts doubt the good times can last. Higher borrowing costs typically slow the economy by depressing consumer spending and business investment.

    Just look at the housing market, where soaring mortgage rates have crushed sales and new construction. The same could happen to the rest of the economy if the Fed has to jack up rates more than Wall Street expects.

    Already, a robust U.S. labor market is showing signs of fraying. Job postings have declined, lots of large companies have announced layoffs and workers who lose a job are taking longer to find a new one.

    It just might not be enough for the Fed.

    Market reaction:  The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -1.66%

    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.85%

    trimmed premarket losses in Friday trades. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.78%.

    Investors hope some signs of cooling in the labor market will encourage the Fed to keep raising interest rates in smaller increments.

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  • China’s Power in Emerging Markets Creates Headache for Global Investors

    China’s Power in Emerging Markets Creates Headache for Global Investors

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    Concentration of Chinese stocks and bonds in major benchmarks sparks concern

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  • How to Lower Your Personal Loan Payments | Entrepreneur

    How to Lower Your Personal Loan Payments | Entrepreneur

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    Personal loans are a great way to access funds for various business purposes, but if the payments are too high, they can become a burden on your cash flow.

    With rates increasing, you may find that your personal loan repayments have become more expensive. Whether you have just one personal loan or multiple loans, if your monthly payments have increased, it can make it more difficult to manage your money and stay on top of debt.

    One of the ways that you can reduce your financial burden is by lowering personal loan payments. Personal loans are a great way to access funds for various business purposes, but if the payments are too high, they can become a burden on your cash flow.

    Here are some strategies for lowering your personal loan payments as an entrepreneur.

    Repay early

    This is an ideal scenario, and even if you can’t repay the loan in full, you can reduce the amount of interest and lower your payments. If you have savings, you can make a lump sum payment on your loans. Just be sure to check if any of your loans have early repayment fees. If so, you will incur a hefty percentage fee, and it could negate the early repayment.

    If you don’t have savings, it may be time to take a look at your budget. If you don’t have a budget, set one. Take a look at your bank statements, credit card bills and other paperwork to calculate all your essential costs, including rent or mortgage payments, food costs, utilities and taxes.

    Next, look at what you spend on non-essentials and see if there are areas where you can make cuts. Of course, you don’t need to live a spartan life, but do you really need two or three television subscription services? Can you cut down on dining out twice a month rather than every week? Any extra money you can find within your budget can go towards paying off your personal loan.

    Related: 8 Things Entrepreneurs Should Look for When Getting a Business Loan

    Adjust the loan term

    Another way to lower your payments is by extending the loan term. This will reduce the monthly payments but increase the overall interest you pay over the life of the loan. This strategy may be a good option if you need some time to build up your business and increase your income.

    You will need to speak to your lender or arrange a new loan deal for this approach. Increasing the loan term will reduce your monthly repayments, but you will pay more in the long term. However, if you’re feeling the pinch and are prepared to repay your loan over a longer term, it could be an option for you. If you have extra cash, you could put this towards reducing your loan term. If you arrange to repay your loan over a shorter period, you’ll pay more now but end up paying less interest and clearing the loan more quickly.

    Get an income boost

    If you have extra cash flow, making extra payments on your loan can help you pay off the loan faster and lower your overall interest costs. This can also help improve your credit score, making it easier to secure funding in the future.

    You will need to think about this strategy according to your specific circumstances. You may be able to negotiate a pay raise at your current job or switch to a better-paying job.

    However, for many business owners, these options are not possible, so you may need to look at a side hustle. There are a number of side gigs in the marketplace, such as food delivery, ridesharing, freelancing and many other ways to monetize one of your existing skills or hobbies. You could even consider selling any unwanted items online or renting out space in your home.

    This doesn’t necessarily mean that you’ll need to have a roommate — many sites allow you to rent out garage space, driveways and other areas that allow you to maintain your privacy and earn a side income. You can then use this additional income to reduce your debt.

    Related: What is a Good Personal Loan Interest Rate?

    Refinance

    If you have a good credit score and a stable income, you may be eligible to refinance your personal loan at a lower interest rate. This can significantly lower your monthly payments, making them more manageable for your business.

    A debt consolidation loan will allow you to merge all your unsecured debt into one loan. This is a sound strategy, particularly if you also have high-interest credit card debt. You’ll not only enjoy lower monthly repayments, but your obligations will be easier to manage as you’ll have just one bill each month. In some cases, you may be able to lock in a reduced rate, making your debt more affordable.

    Just be aware that refinancing will require a hard credit search which could impact your credit score. You will also need to choose your loan options carefully, as some deals are only available to those with excellent credit. If your credit score has dropped since you took out your current personal loans, you may be offered a higher rate — which means your debt will cost you more in the short and long term.

    Contact your lender

    If you have a good payment history and a solid business plan, you may be able to negotiate with your lender for a lower interest rate. This can be done by providing financial statements and a business plan that shows how you plan to improve your income. Many lenders are willing to work with those who are having payment difficulties.

    Your lender may be willing to accept a number of scenarios, including creating a different repayment schedule, settling the debt with a smaller lump sum payment or temporarily putting your payments into forbearance. This allows you to temporarily stop making payments so that you can get your finances under control.

    If you are negotiating with your lender, make sure you ask what they will report to the credit bureaus so that you know how settling your debt will impact your credit. You should know beforehand that your credit score could take a hit.

    Related: What You Need to Know About Personal Loans

    Many of us are feeling the effects of the uncertainty in the economy right now, so it is natural to be concerned about your personal loan obligations. Fortunately, there are a number of ways to lower your personal loan payments. However, it is important to think about how making changes to your personal loan will impact your credit in the future.

    If you’re experiencing temporary financial issues, it may be better to tighten your financial belt for a few months to get over a hump rather than taking action that may have adverse effects on your credit. The sooner that you recognize that your personal loan payments could be a difficulty, the better your chances of finding an effective solution.

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  • How to Rebuild Credit After Bankruptcy | Entrepreneur

    How to Rebuild Credit After Bankruptcy | Entrepreneur

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    Bankruptcy can provide financial relief, but the downside is that it can negatively impact credit. While bankruptcy will remain on a credit report for as long as 10 years, the impact will lessen with time. Whether you filed Chapter 7 (which means you have the ability to pay back your debts) or Chapter 13 (you’re required to pay your creditors all of your disposable income), it is possible to start rebuilding credit with some simple measures.

    Rebuilding credit after bankruptcy as an entrepreneur can be challenging, but it’s not impossible. The first step is understanding that rebuilding credit takes time and consistent effort.

    How bankruptcy affects credit

    Payment history is one of the most important factors when determining credit scores. When someone files for bankruptcy, the individual won’t be repaying covered debts in full as per the original credit agreement. This means that when filing for bankruptcy, it can have a severe negative impact on someone’s credit score.

    A bankruptcy filing will appear on an individual’s credit report for up to 10 years, making it difficult to obtain credit or loans in the future. An entrepreneur may also have difficulty obtaining credit from suppliers or vendors, as they may be hesitant to extend credit to a business that has filed for bankruptcy.

    Regardless of the bankruptcy type, lenders will see it on a credit report within the public records section, and it is likely to be a decision-making factor. After completing the legal process, it will show the bankruptcy and included debts that have been discharged.

    However, it’s important to note that filing for bankruptcy can also provide a fresh start for an entrepreneur, allowing them to discharge debt and start anew.

    When applying for credit, lenders may not approve certain types of credit — and even if approved, an individual may find that they’re offered higher interest rates or other unfavorable terms.

    Related: How This Entrepreneur Achieved His Greatest Success After His Worst Failure

    Can I get a credit card after bankruptcy?

    It can be difficult for an entrepreneur to get a credit card after filing for bankruptcy. Many lenders view individuals who have filed for bankruptcy as a higher risk. However, it is possible to get a credit card after bankruptcy, but it may take time and effort.

    The best approach is to apply for a card that is specifically designed to help rebuild credit. An ideal card option is a secured credit card — approval is possible even with a fresh bankruptcy. Secured cards typically have a credit limit equal to the amount of security deposit that is provided.

    However, some unsecured card issuers won’t pull a credit score or may extend a line of credit even if there are blemishes on someone’s credit history. Just be aware that these types of cards typically have extremely high rates and an abundance of fees. A secured card is likely the better option with lower costs.

    The best ways to build credit after bankruptcy

    As soon as a bankruptcy has been finalized, the individual can start working on building credit. Some of the best ways include the following:

    Maintain payments on non-bankruptcy accounts

    After filing, determine if any accounts have not been closed. While bankruptcy cancels most debt, there may be some remaining. Paying down these balances can lower the debt-to-income ratio — making timely payments remains crucial. Consistent payments will also help with staying on top of bills.

    Keep credit balances as low as possible

    Credit balances not only impact the credit utilization ratio but depending on how the need to file for bankruptcy was developed, people should look to avoid falling into the same habits. Reduce credit card usage and pay down balances — it will benefit your financial health.

    Build emergency savings

    Save some money each payday to build emergency savings. This will provide a fund for unexpected expenses, which will help to avoid incurring future debt that could impede rebuilding credit.

    Get a secured card

    As we touched on above, a secured credit card could help with rebuilding credit. While a security deposit is necessary, each time that a repayment is made on the card’s account, it will be reported to the credit bureaus. This will demonstrate responsible credit behavior.

    Some secured card issuers allow cardholders to move on to an unsecured card after making consistent and on-time payments. This is a great benefit as there will be no need to apply for a new card as credit starts to improve.

    Consider credit builder loans

    A credit builder loan could be another way to help build credit. An individual will need to have a certain amount of money held in a secured savings account, but the individual can make monthly payments until the loan amount is repaid. Depending on the lender, it is also possible to have a secured loan that allows borrowing against savings.

    As with a traditional loan, the payment activity for a credit builder loan will be reported to the major credit bureau, which will help to improve credit scores over time.

    Related: I Filed for Bankruptcy at Age 21

    How long until credit improves?

    This will depend on an individual’s specific circumstances, but if someone is making consistent payments, and has a low credit utilization ratio and low debt-to-income ratio, they should start to see positive changes to their credit score after approximately six months.

    However, be prepared to take a long-term approach. Remember that bankruptcy will be on a credit report for seven to 10 years. While the effects will diminish over time, responsible behavior will lead to improvements. Stay patient.

    Related: 6 Steps Resilient Entrepreneurs Take to Rebound From Bankruptcy

    Can I get a mortgage after bankruptcy?

    There is no need to wait for bankruptcy to disappear from a credit report to apply for a mortgage. However, if applying for a conventional mortgage, an individual will need to wait at least four years after bankruptcy has been discharged. If there are extraneous circumstances, it may be possible after two years.

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  • Why is the stock market falling? Blame a ‘perfect storm’ as yields rise, dollar rallies

    Why is the stock market falling? Blame a ‘perfect storm’ as yields rise, dollar rallies

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    Rising Treasury yields appeared Tuesday to finally catch up with a previously resilient stock market, putting major indexes on track for their worst day so far of 2023.

    “Yields are popping across the curve, with the 2-year back to its November highs. This time it seems, market rates are playing catch up with fed funds,” said veteran technical analyst Mark Arbeter, president of Arbeter Investments, in a note.

    Since the beginning of the month, traders in fed-funds futures have priced in a more aggressive Federal Reserve after initially doubting the central bank would hit its forecast for a peak fed-funds rate above 5%. A few traders are even pricing in the outside possibility of a peak rate near 6%.

    Arbeter noted that markets generally lead fed-funds higher, not the other way around. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has also rallied, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index adding 0.2% to a February bounce.

    Arbeter also noted that breadth indicators, a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, had previously deteriorated, with some measures reaching oversold levels.

    “Just another perfect storm against the equity markets in the short term,” he wrote.

    Rising yields can be a negative for stocks, increasing borrowing costs. More important, higher Treasury yields mean that the present value of future profits and cash flow are discounted more heavily. That can weigh heavily on tech and other so-called growth stocks whose valuations are based on earnings far into the future. Those stocks were pummeled heavily last year but have led gains in an early 2023 rally, remaining resilient through last week even as yields extended a bounce.

    Yields have been on the rise after a run of hotter-than-expected economic data, which have boosted expectations for Fed rate hikes. Weak guidance Tuesday from Home Depot Inc.
    HD,
    -7.09%

    and Walmart Inc.
    WMT,
    +0.59%

    also contributed to the tone.

    Home Depot sank 6.5%, and was the biggest lower on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -2.06%
    ,
    after the home-improvement retailer reported a surprise decline in fiscal fourth-quarter same-store sales, guided for a surprise drop in fiscal 2023 profit and earmarked an additional $1 billion to pay its associates more.

    “While Wall Street expects resilient consumers following last week’s robust retail sales report, Home Depot and Walmart are much more cautious,” said Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, in a note.

    “This morning’s data offers more mixed signals concerning consumer demand, but during a traditionally weak seasonal trading period, investors are shifting toward a glass half-empty view against the backdrop of a year that’s featured the exact opposite so far, a glass half-full perspective,” he wrote.

    The Dow remained down nearly 650 points, or 1.9%, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -2.00%

    slumped 1.9% to trade at 4,001 after earlier dipping below the 4,000 level for the first time since Jan. 25. The S&P 500 was on track for its biggest daily drop since December. The Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -2.50%

    was down 2.4%.

    The losses left the Dow clinging to a 0.1% year-to-date gain, while the S&P 500 remains up more than 4% and the Nasdaq Composite has rallied over almost 10% so far this year.

    Arbeter identified a “very interesting cluster” of support just below the Tuesday low for the S&P 500, with the convergence of a pair of trend lines along with the index’s 50- and 200-day moving averages all near 3,970 (see chart below).


    Arbeter Investments LLC

    “If that zone does not represent the pullback lows, we have more trouble ahead,” he wrote.

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  • Credit Card Debt Just Jumped to a Record High. Here’s How to Pay Off Yours

    Credit Card Debt Just Jumped to a Record High. Here’s How to Pay Off Yours

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    The siren song of the credit card is music to our ears lately. When it comes time to pay the bills, we Americans are reaching for the plastic more than ever.

    With more people using credit cards to pay for food and rent, Americans’ total credit card debt reached a record $930 billion at the end of 2022, according to a new report from TransUnion. That’s a whopping 18.5% increase from the year before.

    (We’ve seen headlines in the past that put Americans’ total credit card debt at $1 trillion, but apparently TransUnion calculates it differently. TransUnion says this is a record. Anyway, credit card debt is way, way up.)

    Not only that, but the average credit card balance rose to $5,805, TransUnion says.

    This comes at a time when swiping your card has become more expensive than ever because credit card interest rates are rising crazy fast. The average APR on a credit card has climbed above 19% — the highest it’s ever been! It’s the most expensive kind of debt you can have.

    What can you do to cut your credit card debt? We’ve got some good ideas for that.

    But first…

    Maybe Bigger Changes Are Needed

    Hey, we’ve all been there with the credit card debt. There’s no shame. We’ve all gone through it.

    But if you’re using a credit card to afford groceries and make rent, that’s obviously a problem. That’s not sustainable. It might be time to make some significant changes.

    You could:

    • Look for cheaper digs. We know that’s easier said than done.
    • Shop at a cheaper grocery store. When we went looking for the cheapest groceries, we found that Aldi is even cheaper than Walmart. Also, here are our favorite tricks to save money on groceries.
    • Do some meal planning to eat healthy and save money. Here’s our guide on how to start meal planning so that you’ll actually stick to it.
    • Get a side gig. Here’s The Penny Hoarder’s continually updated page on work-from-home jobs.

    5 Ways to Eliminate Credit Card Debt

    Here’s our ultimate guide to paying off credit card debt. We’ll summarize five methods here:

    1. Debt Avalanche

    Pay off your credit cards that have the highest interest rates first. Doing that can save you a lot of money over time because you’ll be paying less interest. Learn more about the debt avalanche method here.

    2. Debt Snowball

    Pay off your credit cards that have the smallest balances first. This allows you to eliminate credit card balances faster, which can motivate you to keep going. Here’s how to use the debt snowball method.

    3. The Balance Transfer

    If you have good to excellent credit (typically a FICO score of 670 or above) and can feasibly pay off your debt within a year, a balance transfer credit card is a good option. Balance transfer credit cards can save you money on interest charges by letting you transfer the balance of a card with a high interest rate to a card with 0% interest. Most of these cards offer 0% interest for 12 to 18 months with no annual fee.

    Pro Tip

    Think a balance transfer card is the right move for your finances? We’ve put together a list of the best balance transfer cards currently available.

    4. Take Out a Loan

    You might look at getting a loan to consolidate and refinance your debts. If you get a loan with a lower interest rate and pay off your credit cards, that lower rate could potentially save you thousands of dollars in interest.

    This is a realistic way to pay off credit card debt if you currently have little or no money to put toward it. You could look into getting a personal loan or a home equity loan.

    Here’s our step-by-step guide to getting a personal loan. And here’s our guide to home equity loans and home equity lines of credit.

    A website called Fiona can match you with a low-interest loan you can use to pay off all your credit card balances.

    5. Debt Settlement

    The world of debt collections and creditors can be confusing. If you’re being harassed by creditors, don’t give up before finding out your options for assistance.

    Debt Management Program: With a debt management program, a credit counseling company will handle your consolidation in hopes of getting you a better interest rate and lower fees. Here’s an article comparing debt management to the strategy of debt consolidation.

    Pro Tip

    If you owe at least $10,000 in unsecured debt, a company called National Debt Relief will create a customized plan just for you. They’ll negotiate with your creditors to reduce the amount you owe.

    Credit Card Debt Settlement: If you’re in more than just a temporary season of financial instability, and you can’t see yourself affording the amount of credit card debt you owe, debt settlement is an option — although we regard it as a last resort before bankruptcy.

    Most people seek the help of a debt settlement company to do this. Debt settlement reduces the amount of debt you owe, but it will significantly lower your credit score and negatively impact your credit report.

    For more information about these options, check out our ultimate guide to paying off credit card debt.

    A final note of caution: Be careful when seeking help with debt settlement. While some companies are legitimately there to assist you, others take your money and do very little to help your situation.

    Mike Brassfield ([email protected]) is a senior writer at The Penny Hoarder. He knows about credit card debt from personal experience.


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  • Dear Penny: My Sister Is Broke Due to Her Freeloading Sons. Do I Help Her Anyway?

    Dear Penny: My Sister Is Broke Due to Her Freeloading Sons. Do I Help Her Anyway?

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    Dear Penny,

    My sister left her husband and moved into the city I live in now, living a block away from me. Shortly after, her two sons (currently 28 and 25) moved here also and live with her. 

    The eldest hasn’t worked since 2017 because my sister says he has anxiety issues. He’s worked before, and it’s my view he’s manipulating her. He signed up for COVID unemployment in 2020 and received it until I brought attention to it. I’ve had anxiety and stutter my entire life and I’ve worked since I was 14. The youngest works off and on. He will work a job for a few weeks and then quit because it’s not exactly what he wants. He has this luxury of course because he has a roof over his head and food.

    My sister is a schoolteacher who will turn 61 in a few months. The burden of all the bills usually is on her. She also drives Uber and tutors to try to make ends meet. She received $40,000 from her divorce last year, and that money is already gone. Her sons won’t get the COVID vaccine, and the younger one was in the hospital for two weeks. I’m pretty sure she paid the hospital bill with her divorce money.

    I spoke to her last night and she is super down because her car broke down so she can’t Uber to make money for bills. She can’t afford to pay the rent and will have to pay the cost of the car being fixed in payments. 

    I’ve spoken to her many times about how she should insist that her sons work to help out. She now just shuts down if I talk about it. I’m sure she won’t change her situation. 

    My question is, I could help but I feel it would be enabling the situation and she would be in the same situation in a month or two. I don’t really have extra money but do fine. Should I help out financially when there are three possible breadwinners in the house and they aren’t helping? I’ve offered to find her financial counseling as well.

    -M.

    Dear M.,

    Your sister knows what you think about her sons. So since you’ve said your piece — plenty of times, it sounds like — you should consider helping only if you can accept your sister’s choices. That doesn’t mean you have to approve. It’s more of a why-beat-a-dead-horse type of thing.

    But I do think helping your sister out makes sense. It sounds like the car repair bill could be the domino that causes everything else to collapse. If your sister can’t pay rent and gets evicted, she’ll have difficulty finding housing for years to come. If she falls behind on bills, she’ll destroy her credit. Bad credit is notoriously expensive, triggering exorbitant interest rates plus security deposits for just about everything.

    Got a Burning Money Question?

    Get practical advice for your money challenges from Robin Hartill, a Certified Financial Planner and the voice of Dear Penny.

    DISCLAIMER: Select questions will appear in The Penny Hoarder’s “Dear Penny” column. We are unable to answer every letter. We reserve the right to edit and publish your questions. But don’t worry — your identity will remain anonymous. Dear Penny columns are for general informational purposes only, but we promise to provide sound advice based on our own research and insights.

    It’s frustrating when you see how someone’s decisions compound their troubles. None of us gets life right every single time, though. And I think your sister sounds like she’s doing the best she can. She’s clearly a hard worker if she’s pursuing side hustles while also working as a teacher. Her sons may be making it harder for her to get ahead financially, but I think she’s also had some bad luck. Since it sounds like her divorce was recent, drawing hard lines with her children may be more than she can emotionally handle right now, even if they are a burden.

    I don’t think you’re enabling your sister if you offer to help with the car repair bill. But you need to make this a gift, not a loan. If there’s one thing I’ve learned from writing this column, it’s that giving money to family members with the expectation of getting repaid is among the fastest ways to ruin a relationship.

    It doesn’t sound like your sister has actually asked you for money. Regardless, if you help her out, make it clear that this is a one-time assist. Tell her you’re not in a position to make this a repeat occurrence. Should she ask you for money in the future, tell her no to avoid making this a pattern.

    Normally, I’m not a fan of gifts that come with strings attached. But in this case, it might make sense to tell your sister you’ll help her on the condition that she accept your offer to help her find a financial counselor. Financial counselors tend to work with people who are struggling with the basics, like budgeting and debt. You can find one through the Association for Financial Counseling & Planning Education’s search tool at findanafc.org.

    There’s no guarantee that your sister will make any significant changes, of course. Sometimes we’re more willing to listen to advice when it comes from a neutral third party, though.

    You clearly care about your sister. You’ll probably feel even more pressure to help her if this situation escalates further and she’s falling behind on bills because she doesn’t have a working vehicle. So if you’re inclined to help out your sister, don’t delay. Bailing her out now will be way less costly than if you wait until her finances have imploded.

    Robin Hartill is a certified financial planner and a senior writer at The Penny Hoarder. Send your tricky money questions to [email protected].


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    robin@thepennyhoarder.com (Robin Hartill, CFP®)

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  • Look for stocks to lose 30% from here, says strategist David Rosenberg. And don’t even think about turning bullish until 2024.

    Look for stocks to lose 30% from here, says strategist David Rosenberg. And don’t even think about turning bullish until 2024.

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    David Rosenberg, the former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, has been saying for almost a year that the Fed means business and investors should take the U.S. central bank’s effort to fight inflation both seriously and literally.

    Rosenberg, now president of Toronto-based Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., expects investors will face more pain in financial markets in the months to come.

    “The recession’s just starting,” Rosenberg said in an interview with MarketWatch. “The market bottoms typically in the sixth or seventh inning of the recession, deep into the Fed easing cycle.” Investors can expect to endure more uncertainty leading up to the time — and it will come — when the Fed first pauses its current run of interest rate hikes and then begins to cut.

    Fortunately for investors, the Fed’s pause and perhaps even cuts will come in 2023, Rosenberg predicts. Unfortunately, he added, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.61%

    could drop 30% from its current level before that happens. Said Rosenberg: “You’re left with the S&P 500 bottoming out somewhere close to 2,900.”

    At that point, Rosenberg added, stocks will look attractive again. But that’s a story for 2024.

    In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Rosenberg offered a playbook for investors to follow this year and to prepare for a more bullish 2024. Meanwhile, he said, as they wait for the much-anticipated Fed pivot, investors should make their own pivot to defensive sectors of the financial markets — including bonds, gold and dividend-paying stocks.

    MarketWatch: So many people out there are expecting a recession. But stocks have performed well to start the year. Are investors and Wall Street out of touch?

    Rosenberg: Investor sentiment is out of line; the household sector is still enormously overweight equities. There is a disconnect between how investors feel about the outlook and how they’re actually positioned. They feel bearish but they’re still positioned bullishly, and that is a classic case of cognitive dissonance. We also have a situation where there is a lot of talk about recession and about how this is the most widely expected recession of all time, and yet the analyst community is still expecting corporate earnings growth to be positive in 2023.

    In a plain-vanilla recession, earnings go down 20%. We’ve never had a recession where earnings were up at all. The consensus is that we are going to see corporate earnings expand in 2023. So there’s another glaring anomaly. We are being told this is a widely expected recession, and yet it’s not reflected in earnings estimates – at least not yet.

    There’s nothing right now in my collection of metrics telling me that we’re anywhere close to a bottom. 2022 was the year where the Fed tightened policy aggressively and that showed up in the marketplace in a compression in the price-earnings multiple from roughly 22 to around 17. The story in 2022 was about what the rate hikes did to the market multiple; 2023 will be about what those rate hikes do to corporate earnings.

    You’re left with the S&P 500 bottoming out somewhere close to 2,900.

    When you’re attempting to be reasonable and come up with a sensible multiple for this market, given where the risk-free interest rate is now, and we can generously assume a roughly 15 price-earnings multiple. Then you slap that on a recession earning environment, and you’re left with the S&P 500 bottoming out somewhere close to 2900.

    The closer we get to that, the more I will be recommending allocations to the stock market. If I was saying 3200 before, there is a reasonable outcome that can lead you to something below 3000. At 3200 to tell you the truth I would plan on getting a little more positive.

    This is just pure mathematics. All the stock market is at any point is earnings multiplied by the multiple you want to apply to that earnings stream. That multiple is sensitive to interest rates. All we’ve seen is Act I — multiple compression. We haven’t yet seen the market multiple dip below the long-run mean, which is closer to 16. You’ve never had a bear market bottom with the multiple above the long-run average. That just doesn’t happen.

    David Rosenberg: ‘You want to be in defensive areas with strong balance sheets, earnings visibility, solid dividend yields and dividend payout ratios.’


    Rosenberg Research

    MarketWatch: The market wants a “Powell put” to rescue stocks, but may have to settle for a “Powell pause.” When the Fed finally pauses its rate hikes, is that a signal to turn bullish?

    Rosenberg: The stock market bottoms 70% of the way into a recession and 70% of the way into the easing cycle. What’s more important is that the Fed will pause, and then will pivot. That is going to be a 2023 story.

    The Fed will shift its views as circumstances change. The S&P 500 low will be south of 3000 and then it’s a matter of time. The Fed will pause, the markets will have a knee-jerk positive reaction you can trade. Then the Fed will start to cut interest rates, and that usually takes place six months after the pause. Then there will be a lot of giddiness in the market for a short time. When the market bottoms, it’s the mirror image of when it peaks. The market peaks when it starts to see the recession coming. The next bull market will start once investors begin to see the recovery.

    But the recession’s just starting. The market bottoms typically in the sixth or seventh inning of the recession, deep into the Fed easing cycle when the central bank has cut interest rates enough to push the yield curve back to a positive slope. That is many months away. We have to wait for the pause, the pivot, and for rate cuts to steepen the yield curve. That will be a late 2023, early 2024 story.

    MarketWatch: How concerned are you about corporate and household debt? Are there echoes of the 2008-09 Great Recession?

    Rosenberg: There’s not going to be a replay of 2008-09. It doesn’t mean there won’t be a major financial spasm. That always happens after a Fed tightening cycle. The excesses are exposed, and expunged. I look at it more as it could be a replay of what happened with nonbank financials in the 1980s, early 1990s, that engulfed the savings and loan industry. I am concerned about the banks in the sense that they have a tremendous amount of commercial real estate exposure on their balance sheets. I do think the banks will be compelled to bolster their loan-loss reserves, and that will come out of their earnings performance. That’s not the same as incurring capitalization problems, so I don’t see any major banks defaulting or being at risk of default.

    But I’m concerned about other pockets of the financial sector. The banks are actually less important to the overall credit market than they’ve been in the past. This is not a repeat of 2008-09 but we do have to focus on where the extreme leverage is centered.

    Read: The stock market is wishing and hoping the Fed will pivot — but the pain won’t end until investors panic

    It’s not necessarily in the banks this time; it is in other sources such as private equity, private debt, and they have yet to fully mark-to-market their assets. That’s an area of concern. The parts of the market that cater directly to the consumer, like credit cards, we’re already starting to see signs of stress in terms of the rise in 30-day late-payment rates. Early stage arrears are surfacing in credit cards, auto loans and even some elements of the mortgage market. The big risk to me is not so much the banks, but the nonbank financials that cater to credit cards, auto loans, and private equity and private debt.

    MarketWatch: Why should individuals care about trouble in private equity and private debt? That’s for the wealthy and the big institutions.

    Rosenberg: Unless private investment firms gate their assets, you’re going to end up getting a flood of redemptions and asset sales, and that affects all markets. Markets are intertwined. Redemptions and forced asset sales will affect market valuations in general. We’re seeing deflation in the equity market and now in a much more important market for individuals, which is residential real estate. One of the reasons why so many people have delayed their return to the labor market is they looked at their wealth, principally equities and real estate, and thought they could retire early based on this massive wealth creation that took place through 2020 and 2021.

    Now people are having to recalculate their ability to retire early and fund a comfortable retirement lifestyle. They will be forced back into the labor market. And the problem with a recession of course is that there are going to be fewer job openings, which means the unemployment rate is going to rise. The Fed is already telling us we’re going to 4.6%, which itself is a recession call; we’re going to blow through that number. All this plays out in the labor market not necessarily through job loss, but it’s going to force people to go back and look for a job. The unemployment rate goes up — that has a lag impact on nominal wages and that is going to be another factor that will curtail consumer spending, which is 70% of the economy.

    My strongest conviction is the 30-year Treasury bond.

    At some point, we’re going to have to have some sort of positive shock that will arrest the decline. The cycle is the cycle and what dominates the cycle are interest rates. At some point we get the recessionary pressures, inflation melts, the Fed will have successfully reset asset values to more normal levels, and we will be in a different monetary policy cycle by the second half of 2024 that will breathe life into the economy and we’ll be off to a recovery phase, which the market will start to discount later in 2023. Nothing here is permanent. It’s about interest rates, liquidity and the yield curve that has played out before.

    MarketWatch: Where do you advise investors to put their money now, and why?

    Rosenberg: My strongest conviction is the 30-year Treasury bond
    TMUBMUSD30Y,
    3.674%
    .
    The Fed will cut rates and you’ll get the biggest decline in yields at the short end. But in terms of bond prices and the total return potential, it’s at the long end of the curve. Bond yields always go down in a recession. Inflation is going to fall more quickly than is generally anticipated. Recession and disinflation are powerful forces for the long end of the Treasury curve.

    As the Fed pauses and then pivots — and this Volcker-like tightening is not permanent — other central banks around the world are going to play catch up, and that is going to undercut the U.S. dollar
    DXY,
    +0.70%
    .
    There are few better hedges against a U.S. dollar reversal than gold. On top of that, cryptocurrency has been exposed as being far too volatile to be part of any asset mix. It’s fun to trade, but crypto is not an investment. The crypto craze — fund flows directed to bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +0.35%

    and the like — drained the gold price by more than $200 an ounce.

    Buy companies that provide the goods and services that people need – not what they want.

    I’m bullish on gold
    GC00,
    +0.22%

    – physical gold — bullish on bonds, and within the stock market, under the proviso that we have a recession, you want to ensure you are invested in sectors with the lowest possible correlation to GDP growth.

    Invest in 2023 the same way you’re going to be living life — in a period of frugality. Buy companies that provide the goods and services that people need – not what they want. Consumer staples, not consumer cyclicals. Utilities. Health care. I look at Apple as a cyclical consumer products company, but Microsoft is a defensive growth technology company.

    You want to be buying essentials, staples, things you need. When I look at Microsoft
    MSFT,
    -0.61%
    ,
    Alphabet
    GOOGL,
    -1.79%
    ,
    Amazon
    AMZN,
    -1.17%
    ,
    they are what I would consider to be defensive growth stocks and at some point this year, they will deserve to be garnering a very strong look for the next cycle.

    You also want to invest in areas with a secular growth tailwind. For example, military budgets are rising in every part of the world and that plays right into defense/aerospace stocks. Food security, whether it’s food producers, anything related to agriculture, is an area you ought to be invested in.

    You want to be in defensive areas with strong balance sheets, earnings visibility, solid dividend yields and dividend payout ratios. If you follow that you’ll do just fine. I just think you’ll do far better if you have a healthy allocation to long-term bonds and gold. Gold finished 2022 unchanged, in a year when flat was the new up.

    In terms of the relative weighting, that’s a personal choice but I would say to focus on defensive sectors with zero or low correlation to GDP, a laddered bond portfolio if you want to play it safe, or just the long bond, and physical gold. Also, the Dogs of the Dow fits the screening for strong balance sheets, strong dividend payout ratios and a nice starting yield. The Dogs outperformed in 2022, and 2023 will be much the same. That’s the strategy for 2023.

    More: ‘It’s payback time.’ U.S. stocks have been a no-brainer moneymaker for years — but those days are over.

    Plus: ‘The Nasdaq is our favorite short.’ This market strategist sees recession and a credit crunch slamming stocks in 2023.

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  • Dear Penny: My Dad Spends Up to $30K/Month. Could I Be Liable for His Debt?

    Dear Penny: My Dad Spends Up to $30K/Month. Could I Be Liable for His Debt?

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    Dear Penny,

    A few years ago, my parents got divorced. I’m in my mid-30s with my own family. The divorce was messy with lots of debate over money. My mother confided that my dad is deep in debt, spending sometimes $30,000 a month, at least, when she could still see his bank accounts. I don’t know if it’s still like that. I do know that he lost his job in the last couple of years so it may not be as bad.

    A long time ago, he put my name on a credit card that we share, and he said I can use it to make purchases when needed. I don’t spend a lot on it, but if he wanted me to order Disney tickets or something for our family, I’d use his card. I use it to buy meals here and there.

    What I’m wondering is, when he passes, will I be responsible for his exorbitant debt? I can understand taking on my student loans that he has worked toward, but I don’t think the rest of this credit card debt should fall to me if I’ve spent only small amounts on this card. I never signed anything or asked for the card.

    What can I do to protect myself and my credit?

    -M.

    Dear M.,

    My guess is that your father made you an authorized user on his credit card. When you’re an authorized user, you’re allowed to use someone else’s credit card, but you’re not responsible for paying the charges.

    That’s just my hunch, though. To confirm that you’re an authorized user, go to AnnualCreditReport.com and see how the account is listed on each of your three credit reports. You could also call the credit card company to verify your status.

    As long as you’re not listed as a joint account owner or co-signer, you shouldn’t be liable for your dad’s debt — not now and not when he dies. Since you didn’t sign anything, this shouldn’t be an issue as long as your father is trustworthy. But sometimes excessive debt and out-of-control spending can drive a person to do desperate things, like sign someone else’s name on a credit application. So for peace of mind, you need to verify that nothing like this occurred.

    Got a Burning Money Question?

    Get practical advice for your money challenges from Robin Hartill, a Certified Financial Planner and the voice of Dear Penny.

    DISCLAIMER: Select questions will appear in The Penny Hoarder’s “Dear Penny” column. We are unable to answer every letter. We reserve the right to edit and publish your questions. But don’t worry — your identity will remain anonymous. Dear Penny columns are for general informational purposes only, but we promise to provide sound advice based on our own research and insights.

    If your father dies with debt, his creditors will have to file a claim in probate court. If his estate assets can’t cover what he owed, his creditors simply won’t get paid. You and any other survivors wouldn’t receive an inheritance, but you wouldn’t have to pay off your father’s debt, either.

    Still, assuming you are an authorized user, I think you should remove your name from your father’s account. You can typically do so by calling the credit card company and asking it to remove you.

    Even if your dad isn’t racking up debt in your name, authorized user status affects your credit. In fact, many parents make their children authorized users to help them build good credit in early adulthood. Everything’s great when the parent has solid financial habits — meaning they pay their bills on time and keep their revolving credit balances low.

    But if the parent misses payments or has high credit usage, their actions can adversely affect any authorized users. Now that you’re in your 30s, you’ve probably had ample opportunity to establish credit on your own. To avoid potential credit damage, I’d want my name off this account.

    The other reason for removing yourself as an authorized user is that it’s the right thing to do if you suspect that your dad has a spending problem. The infrequent purchases you make using this card may be minor. But if you believed someone was struggling with alcohol addiction, you probably wouldn’t offer them a tequila shot, even though it’s just one drink. And I certainly wouldn’t assume that your father got his spending under control as a result of losing his job.

    I don’t know how close you are to your father. But if you have a relationship, I’d suggest talking with him directly about his finances. That doesn’t mean you have to step in to fix things if he is, in fact, facing hardship. But it’s generally a good thing to have a sense of your parents’ money situation so that you’re not blindsided if they need help at some point. This can also be helpful because many people need help managing their money as they get older.

    If your dad really is spending to the tune of $30,000 a month, there may not be much you can do. But by removing your name from his credit card, you can separate your finances and avoid contributing to his problem.

    Robin Hartill is a certified financial planner and a senior writer at The Penny Hoarder. Send your tricky money questions to [email protected].


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    robin@thepennyhoarder.com (Robin Hartill, CFP®)

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  • Buy Now, Pay Later: Good Alternative to Credit Cards or Dangerous Debt Trap?

    Buy Now, Pay Later: Good Alternative to Credit Cards or Dangerous Debt Trap?

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    Buy now, pay later apps are an increasingly popular way to finance purchases.

    Companies like Affirm, AfterPay and Klarna let you split the cost of everyday purchases — from running shoes to groceries — into several installment payments.

    Pay-in-four loans are the most common model. You’re required to make a small down payment, usually 25%, then enroll in auto-pay with a credit or debit card for the remaining three payments, often spread out two weeks apart.

    It may seem like an attractive alternative to credit cards since pay-in-four plans don’t charge interest.

    Pretty tempting, right? That’s the whole idea.

    But buy now, pay later isn’t free money. It’s a short-term loan, and the business model is sounding alarms from regulators and consumer protection advocates.

    “BNPL isn’t the life preserver it pretends to be to keep consumers from drowning,” said Ed Mierzwinski, senior director of the federal consumer program at U.S. PIRG, a consumer advocacy group. “It’s a come-on to spend more.”

    Here are seven pitfalls to keep in mind with buy now, pay later services, along with tips to avoid a debt trap.

    7 Dangers of Buy Now, Pay Later

    It may be convenient to delay paying off a purchase up front, but be wary of these risks that come with using buy now, pay later services.

     1. Buy Now, Pay Later Isn’t Building Your Credit — But It Could Hurt Your Credit

    Applying for a buy now, pay later service won’t hurt your credit score because these companies don’t run a hard credit check on your history.

    However, BNPL loans impact your credit in other ways.

    Unlike credit cards, most BNPL companies don’t send all their data to the three major credit reporting bureaus — TransUnion, Equifax and Experian.

    That means on-time payments don’t help boost or build your credit score.

    Current credit reporting conventions aren’t designed for short-term revolving lines of credit, like buy now, pay later loans. Credit reporting agencies are attempting to reconcile this with BNPL companies, but it’s a work in progress.

    If BNPL companies reported all their data to credit reporting bureaus under the current system, it could actually hurt consumers’ credit scores, even if they made timely payments.

    “That’s because each BNPL loan is a new line of credit, which can significantly reduce a person’s average length of credit history,” said Summer Red, an accredited financial counselor and director of education at the Association for Financial Counseling & Planning Education.

    On the other hand, missing a BNPL payment can still hurt your credit.

    If you start missing payments, your debt could be turned over to a debt collection agency and could be sent to a credit reporting company, which can ultimately damage your credit scores.

    2. You Could Also Overextend Yourself

    Because buy now, pay later companies don’t report information to the credit bureaus in a consistent fashion, traditional lenders can’t see how much debt you’re really carrying.

    “This could result in someone being approved for additional credit that they can’t afford to pay,” Red told The Penny Hoarder.

    If you apply for a car loan, mortgage or a new credit card, for example, the lender won’t see you have $1,000 in BNPL loans coming due next month. You could get saddled with a big car payment while still paying off BNPL loans.

    And since BNPL companies only conduct soft credit inquiries, one BNPL lender has no idea how much you’re borrowing from other BNPL companies.

    Buy now, pay later providers won’t let you take out another loan until you catch up with late payments. But there’s nothing to stop you from splitting up another purchase with a different provider, a practice known as loan stacking.

    People juggling four or more buy now, pay later loans at once were twice as likely to have missed a payment, according to a November 2022 Consumer Reports survey.

    “It can be easy to miss a payment when you have a lot of individual bills,” Red said.

    If you suspect an error on your credit report, a website called Credit Sesame can help you detect them — for free. If you find any, it will even help you dispute them.

    3. You Could Face Late Fees

    Each buy now, pay later company has different terms and conditions on what happens if you fall behind on payments.

    Some might not charge a late fee at all, like Affirm and PayPal’s Pay in 4. Others do: Afterpay, for example, charges up to $8, and Zip charges up to $10.

    Late fees from buy now, pay later apps are becoming more common, according to a September report from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. It found 10.5% of unique users were charged at least one late fee in 2021, up from 7.8% in 2020.

     4. You’re Also More Likely to Overdraft With Multiple BNPL Loans

    Nearly 90% of buy now, pay later users in 2021 linked a debit card to autopay their loans, according to the CFPB. Recent academic research shows that BNPL users are more likely to face overdraft fees from their bank than non-users.

    Overdraft fees can be costly, averaging about $30.

    All five of the major BNPL companies attempt to reauthorize failed payments, in some cases, up to eight times for a single installment, according to the CFPB.

    That means you could get hit with multiple overdraft fees from your bank in a short time if the BNPL company keeps running a linked debit card with insufficient funds.

     5. Buy Now, Pay Later Encourages You to Overspend

    By design, BNPL services encourage you to buy more and borrow more. This makes it easy — dangerously easy — to overspend.

    “It’s so easy to think ‘Oh, it’s just this small payment,’” said Kate Mielitz, an accredited financial counselor and special programs manager at AFCPE. “But those small payments add up to very large payments very quickly.”

    Nearly one-third — 30% — of surveyed users spent more than they would have if BNPL hadn’t been available, according to a March 2022 report from the Financial Health Network.

    Similarly, 45% of people who used a buy now, pay later service said they couldn’t have afforded the purchase otherwise, the Consumer Reports survey found.

    “BNPL makes it easy to make impulse purchases,” Red said. “That can quickly spiral into spending more than you can afford.”

     6. BNPL Companies Push Products Directly to Consumers

    Buy now, pay later companies have been tempting shoppers to split up their purchase at online checkout for years.

    Now, these companies are targeting consumers in other ways, including pushing an app-driven model to directly engage with potential shoppers.

    “In the app-driven model, (BNPL) lenders’ primary role is as a marketing platform to ‘push’ customers to retailers via referral clicks,” according to the September 2022 CFPB report.

    BNPL lenders often collect your data, too, which they use to deploy product features and marketing campaigns targeted specifically to your buying preferences, the report found.

    So even when you’re trying to save money and stick to your budget, these companies are making it harder.

    “The vast data collection and monetization engines run by Big Tech firms are designed to fuel an explosion of buying and an increase in consumer debt for stuff we don’t need … and, too often, end up throwing away,” Mierzwinski noted in a response to the CFPB report.

    7. Buy Now, Pay Later Doesn’t Offer The Same Protections and Regulations as Credit Cards

    A patchwork of consumer protections oversee buy now, pay later companies.

    This can cause headaches for consumers, including:

    • A lack of standardized fees, interest rates and payment terms disclosures.
    • Little if any dispute resolution rights for consumers.
    • A forced opt-in to autopay.
    • Companies that charge multiple late fees on the same missed payment.

    Consumer complaints to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau about returns and disputes are common, according to the agency’s September report. Some consumers, for example, were still billed for their installment payment during the refund process or during a dispute.

    The Fair Credit Billing Act gives consumers the right to dispute credit card charges if there’s a quality issue with the product or a billing mistake. BNPL plans don’t qualify for this, so each provider plays by its own rules.

    4 Tips to Help You Avoid a Buy Now, Pay Later Debt Spiral

    Buy now, pay later services can help spread out the cost of big purchases over time, but they also make it easy to impulse buy items.

    Here are a few tips to prevent you from getting overwhelmed with buy now, pay later bills.

    1. Only take out one BNPL loan at a time. Juggling multiple loans from several lenders makes it easier to miss a payment, incur late fees and overdraft your bank account.
    2. Write down your due dates. BNPL companies don’t always notify you before they withdraw money from your account. Jotting down due dates or setting a reminder on your phone a couple days beforehand can help ensure you have sufficient funds in your bank account before you get charged.
    3. Change your payment due date. Some BNPL companies like Klarna and Afterpay let you extend your due date. This can give you some breathing room to adjust your budget and come up with the money before you fall behind on payments.
    4. Decide if you really need it. Is this a need or a want? Chances are it’s the latter. If you don’t have the money to buy the item outright, kicking the can down the road won’t make it more affordable.

    Rachel Christian is a Certified Educator in Personal Finance and a senior writer for The Penny Hoarder. She focuses on retirement, credit, investing and life insurance. 


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    rachel.christian@thepennyhoarder.com (Rachel Christian, CEPF®)

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  • How to Choose the Right Debt Provider for Your Business

    How to Choose the Right Debt Provider for Your Business

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    When founders think of raising debt, they often imagine going to a bank. In my three years advising companies on debt financing options, I frequently remind founders that banks are certainly an option — but not the only one. Founders exploring debt should familiarize themselves with all of the options in the market, from traditional asset-based loans to more innovative venture debt and revenue-based financing solutions.

    These various lenders don’t just have distinctive structures and terms for their capital, they also each have a particular set of criteria to qualify for a loan. By acquainting yourself with the entire market upfront, you can focus on the lenders that suit your business the best, maximize the number of term sheets you receive and spend less time chasing dead ends.

    Related: Why Founders Should Embrace Debt Alongside Equity

    Banks

    Banks themselves come in various shapes and sizes. When it comes to business loans, you have your regional community banks, large multinational banks and specialized venture debt banks. Sometimes one large bank may roll up all of these divisions under one roof, providing a range of options from revolving lines of credit, term loans, warehouse lines and more.

    Oftentimes these banks have access to the cheapest available capital and therefore can offer you the lowest interest rate. But bear in mind that while this is usually the cheapest option, banks also have a high bar to qualify for their capital. They may include covenants or other performance requirements to ensure the business continues to meet their benchmarks throughout the duration of the loan.

    For many small businesses, taking a loan from a local community bank can be a simple low-cost option. But be aware that they may have minimum asset or cash flow requirements to qualify or even ask for a personal guarantee.

    Venture debt banks, on the other hand, specialize in VC-backed cash-burning businesses that show huge growth potential. Oftentimes, getting a loan from one of these banks requires several rounds of equity from brand-name venture capital funds, providing up to 25-35% of your most recent equity raise amount.

    Eventually, once your business is generating several millions of dollars in cash flow, an even wider spectrum of bank options opens up including some of the largest multinational banks.

    Venture debt funds

    More traditional venture debt offerings are very similar to those one would find at a bank. A three- to four-term loan structure is standard, though generally, rates are more expensive than banks with the flipside of a greater quantum of capital.

    Similarly, venture debt funds look for VC-backed companies or at least some form of institutional backing, rapid growth and high LTV/CAC. More bespoke options do exist as well, oftentimes branded as growth debt rather than venture debt, since they can provide capital to angel-backed or even fully bootstrapped businesses.

    Both of these options typically come at a cost of capital in the teens with interest-only periods and can be quite creative in structure. Founders should be aware that for both venture debt banks and funds, loan packages often come with warrants — effectively an option to purchase shares of the company in the future at a fixed price. Meaning, a small amount of dilution should be expected, though some lenders in this space pride themselves on being fully non-dilutive.

    Related: When is the Best Time to Raise Venture Debt – Here’s the Key

    Revenue-based financing (RBF)

    An increasingly popular non-dilutive financing solution for early-stage companies is technically not debt. Revenue-based financing functions more akin to a cash advance. Capital injections are repaid as a percentage of monthly revenues, as opposed to a fixed principal repayment schedule.

    If you’re looking for the fastest path to receiving capital, revenue-based financing is the solution. Many firms that use API integrations to your accounting and commerce data are able to aggregate that data through their underwriting systems and offer terms in 24-48 hours.

    While this capital tends to be on the more expensive side, speed and flexibility make up for it. Unlike other lenders, RBF facilities usually don’t require collateral or impose restrictive covenants that may limit your ability to grow.

    In terms of qualifying for an RBF, monthly revenue minimums can be as low as $10K with at least six months of operating history. The crucial requirement is to show evidence of recurring revenue. This usually means SaaS revenue with low churn, but can also be applied to most subscription-style businesses or even transactional ecommerce businesses that show a strong history of sticky customers.

    Non-bank cash flow lending

    Traditional private credit funds lend to established companies that have several years of traction under their belts. They generally are EBITDA or cash flow positive, some starting at as low as $3M annual EBITDA while others require $10M+. Businesses can be founder or sponsor-owned, and range from fast-growing later-stage tech companies to more traditional businesses and even turnaround financing for distressed situations.

    Use of capital covers a huge spectrum from funding leveraged buyouts or asset purchases to growth capital. Funding structures run the gamut, from senior secured to mezzanine debt (below senior lenders but above equity-holders) or even preferred equity in the capital stack. Rates are typically higher than banks from single digits to mid-teens, with three- to five-year terms. Closing fees and exit fees are common, as are covenants, and loan sizes are derived either holistically on the business fundamentals or as a function of cash flow.

    Non-bank asset-based lending (ABL)

    An ABL facility allows borrowers to use an asset as collateral for a line of credit or term loan. The asset can be as liquid as accounts receivable and inventory or as illiquid as real estate or a specific piece of equipment. Some of these loans can be secured with just one asset. For instance, a company needs a new warehouse and gets ABL financing for that, or it could be a combination like A/R and inventory.

    Asset-based lenders will often focus on a specific industry and require a minimum amount of whichever asset(s) they specialize in (accounts receivable, inventory, capital equipment, real estate or even intellectual property). Those assets can be held on the books as collateral or in some cases purchased outright at a discount (receivables factoring, for example).

    Unlike the other debt facilities covered, ABLs normally carve out a specific asset rather than taking a security interest on the entire company. This lowers the risk for borrowers and provides some flexibility to stack on additional debt, provided they can cover it. The advance rate (the amount of cash you get up-front) is usually between 50% and 90% of the value of the pledged assets.

    Related: The Old-School Solution to Cash Flow Problems Hiding in Your Receivables

    Questions to ask yourself

    As you consider which debt provider to approach, you need to think about the characteristics of the funding vehicle that will unlock the long-term potential of your business — while covering your short-term cash flow needs. Don’t forget that each lender has its own unique criteria. Fundraising without a clear plan of action can become a huge time suck for founders, pulling them away from operating the business. By strategizing upfront and learning the market, you can ensure that you only spend valuable time with lenders that can provide a real offer.

    Once the term sheets are in hand, you can now leverage them and pick the terms that are best for you. I’ll discuss that in my next article.

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    Tim Makhauri

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  • Are we in a new bull market for stocks?

    Are we in a new bull market for stocks?

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    News flash: We may be in a new bull market.

    That’s the good news. The not-so-good news is that the recent rally may have gotten ahead of itself and a pullback would be health-restoring to the bull market.

    Read: Jobs report shows blowout 517,000 gain in U.S. employment in January

    The…

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  • Cash is no longer trash, says Dalio, who calls it more attractive than stocks and bonds

    Cash is no longer trash, says Dalio, who calls it more attractive than stocks and bonds

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    ‘Cash used to be trashy. Cash is pretty attractive now. It’s attractive in relation to bonds. It’s actually attractive in relation to stocks.’

    Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio no longer thinks “cash is trash.” In fact, just the opposite.

    Over the past year, cash has become “pretty attractive” relative to both stocks and bonds, the famed hedge-fund manager said during a Thursday interview with CNBC.

    While bonds might offer investors a higher yield, swollen public-sector debts in the U.S., Europe and Japan and negative real yields have made debt securities less appealing, Dalio said.

    That’s a notable shift from last May, when Dalio said that cash was still “trash” but that stocks were “trashier” as the 2022 market meltdown got underway. Dalio offered an update in October, when he tweeted that he had changed his mind about cash and now viewed it as “about neutral.”

    Dalio has become closely associated with the “cash is trash” line after using it in several interviews dating back to at least 2019. Back then, rock-bottom interest rates were bolstering valuations of both stocks and bonds.

    During the cable-news interview, Dalio offered some criticisms of bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +0.56%
    ,
    which, like stocks, has rebounded since the start of the year.

    “I think you’re going to see the development of coins that you haven’t seen that will be attractive, viable coins … [but] I don’t think bitcoin is it,” he said.

    The billionaire recently stepped back from day-to-day management at Bridgewater Associates, the pioneering hedge fund that he built into the world’s largest in terms of assets under management.

    Bridgewater announced on Thursday that the firm had promoted Karen Karniol-Tambour to the position of co–chief investment officer alongside Bob Prince and Greg Jensen.

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  • Bed Bath & Beyond misses more than $28 million in interest payments on bonds: report

    Bed Bath & Beyond misses more than $28 million in interest payments on bonds: report

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    Beleaguered retailer Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. has missed interest payments on its bonds, the Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday, as the possibility of bankruptcy looms over the company.

    Bed Bath & Beyond
    BBBY,

    confirmed to the Journal that it missed more than $28 million in payments for three tranches of notes totaling about $1.2 billion that were due Wednesday.

    On Friday, the company said it was in default on loans that had been called in, and early last month warned that it may need to declare bankruptcy as it had “substantial doubt” about its “ability to continue as a going concern.” 

    The Journal has previously reported that Bed Bath & Beyond is expected to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection soon, and has been making preparations for weeks.

    On Monday, the company said it was closing more than 140 additional stores.

    Bed Bath & Beyond stock slid about 2% in after-hours trading Wednesday after the Journal’s report was published. Its shares have tumbled 13% over the past five trading days and are down 83% over the past 12 months.

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