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Tag: dana brown

  • Four Looming Questions for the Astros This Offseason – Houston Press

    When you miss the postseason for the first time in eight years, even if it was only by a couple games, decisions will need to be made. This is particularly true of an Astros organization that has celebrated one of the best runs of any team in baseball over the last decade including a pair of World Series wins.

    It is what makes this winter both fascinating and a little concerning for anyone following this team. Jim Crane has said the championship window will always be open as long as he is the owner, but that is easier said that done, particularly when you are simultaneously trying to remain relevant and rebuild a farm system devastated by trades, injuries and penalties in the wake of the 2017 sign-stealing scandal.

    GM Dana Brown will have a lot on his plate when the hot stove starts heating up. Here are four questions that will be top of mind for him and Astros fans.

    How do you deal with the starting pitching?

    At present, the Astros have exactly two healthy starting pitchers we can assume will occupy the team’s starting rotation in 2026: Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier. Framber Valdez is a free agent and not expected to return. Barring surgery, Spencer Arrighetti should be back and Lance McCullers, Jr. could take one last shot at starting. After that, it’s a crapshoot.

    Multiple players including Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter are expected to miss all of next season following surgery. That leaves rookie AJ Blubaugh, who was good in his handful of starts, but hardly a guarantee, and Jason Alexander, who could return but was only good this past year after being claimed off waivers.

    After swinging and missing at a starter at the deadline, Brown will have no greater priority than finding at least one, possibly two, starting arms this offseason and pray for health in 2026, something that has eluded the organization for several years.

    What moves do you make to clean up the infield logjam?

    Bring Carlos Correa back via trade was not just good for the feels at Daikan, it was beneficial on the field as well. Likewise, Ramon Urias provided some much needed depth on the infield. But with Isaac Paredes back from injury, there are now more players than spots available. Paredes could be moved to second base, but few believe he can excel defensively there, something the Astros as an organization have prioritized in their infield acquisitions. But if not there, where?

    Christian Walker came on at the end of the season, but was a general disappointment at the plate despite being excellent at first. Jose Altuve bounced between left field, second and designated hitter, but many people the left field experiment will end leaving him with few options in the field, especially when Yordan Alvarez is healthy.

    Then there is the fact that with Urias, the Astros are essentially carrying two utility men with Mauricio Dubon, who regressed at the plate in 2025. Could some of these players be moved to clear room?

    Oh, and we didn’t even mention the fact that rookie Brice Matthews, who plays second base, looks ready for a full season in the bigs. A lot to consider here.

    Can better coaching improve hitting with these players?

    After firing Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker, the team will move to fill those vacancies with new hires focused on hitting, but will that be enough. For years, this has been an organization that preached plate discipline, but that seemed to escape them this year. With so many free swingers on the roster and not enough of them power hitters, the Astros offense was anemic at best.

    You’d be hard pressed to find people in baseball who believe hitting coaches can change the fortunes of entire teams, but they need to get these hires right. Getting back to taking more pitches and saving swings for balls in the zone must be a priority.

    Ultimately, however, it will take the right combination of players (and health) to get this team out of the offensive basement. Adding ANY power to the mix would also be hugely helpful.

    What 40-man roster moves should be on the table?

    When you consider the names on the roster and the lack of minor league depth, it seems like an offseason primed for some trades of players most fans know. Where players like Dubon, Walker and/or Paredes fit will be part of the calculus, particularly with the glaring need for pitching.

    Then there is the outfield. Jesus Sanchez in right was below average in the field platooning with the surprising rookie Cam Smith, who excelled defensively despite never playing in the outfield. But, Sanchez also struggled at the plate. They team dealt for him, hoping for a boost from his left handed bat. With a full year under his belt, Smith probably deserves the full time role in right, but where does that leave Sanchez?

    Likewise, rookie Zach Cole had a huge impact down the stretch and seemingly came out of nowhere, but would seem to be squeezed in the outfield when you consider the returns of Jacob Melton, one of the team’s best prospects, and Zach Dezenzo, who could play multiple spots on the field.

    Finally, there are Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers. McCormick could be a candidate to be non tendered and Meyers might be at the peak of his trade value after a good season at the plate and continued success defensively in center.

    A lot will be decided in a short period of time with potential seismic shifts up and down the roster.

    This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025.

    Jeff Balke

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  • Astros Let Three Coaches, Two Staffers Go in Offseason Overhaul

    It was announced this week that the Astros would bring back manager Joe Espada and GM Dana Brown in 2026 after missing the postseason for the first time in what seems like forever. Both are signed through next season and it makes sense that owner Jim Crane will see how things go next year before making any long term decisions on either of his top men.

    That didn’t save others from the chopping block as three coaches, one trainer and an assistant general manager were all let go on Thursday.

    Hitting coaches Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker along with Michael Collins, who oversees the catchers, did not have their contracts renewed for next year. Fans who knew the names of Cintrón and Snitker and what they did could be found most of the year on social media calling for their heads with the Astros anemic offense struggling. Whether new hitting coaches can change the fortunes of the team is a different question entirely.

    Along with the coaches, neither head athletic trainer Jeremiah Randall nor the assistant GM who oversaw sports medicine and performance, Andrew Ball, will return next season. With the huge number of injuries and re-injuries throughout the season, heads were certainly going to roll among training staff.

    Hitting and injuries were the two most glaring issues for the Astros in 2025 and cleaning house this offseason meant hitting those two departments hard.

    As much as fans may feel like this is a positive step — and, frankly, addressing everything this winter should be on the table — Randall presided over a well respected training staff that actually won the league’s “best” award back in 2017. Granted, that’s nearly a decade ago, but it’s unlikely they suddenly forgot how to heal people.

    As for the hitting, everything from player development to in-game strategy needs to be reviewed. The Astros won a pair of championships due in no small part to their savvy play at the plate. They routinely had stellar strikeout-to-walk ratios along with particularly good clutch hitting numbers. That has gone downhill significantly over the last few seasons.

    This probably won’t solve all the Astros problems. In fact, they will need a lot more than just getting rid of assistants to do that. But, it does feel like a step in the right direction, especially fresh off a premature ending to the season.

    This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025.

    Jeff Balke

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  • Four Questions the Astros Must Answer This Winter

    If you went back to the start of the 2025 baseball season with the knowledge that the Astros would have 26 players on the IL including a league most 18 at one time, lose +17 WAR in player injuries, see multiple starting pitchers go down with serious elbow problems, and lose your closer for the last month of the season, you probably would have imagined a team close to the bottom of the AL and a completely uncompetitive season.

    You’d be wrong.

    Despite all of those problems and an unbelievably anemic offense, the Astros entered game 161 with a chance to still make the postseason. Two weeks prior to that, they were leading the AL West. When you reconstruct the memory of the season in your head, that should offer at least a bit of comfort and, perhaps more importantly, perspective.

    We may all feel defeated after so much heartbreak, but the reality is this team played well beyond what it had on the field. Will there need to be changes? Absolutely. As former Rockets coach Jeff Van Gundy was fond of saying, you don’t ignore in victory what you would not ignore in defeat. This team has its share of issues that must be addressed, but in the end, this season could have been much, much worse. Now, let’s figure out what to do next.

    Does Framber Valdez return?

    The highest profile free agent for the Astros this offseason is the lefty starter who may or may not have intentionally thrown at his catcher this year. Valdez has tons of talent and induces ground balls at an insane rate, but for two straight seasons, he has fallen off in the second half of the season. He has also become known for his occasional inability to rein in his emotions on the mound. 

    But, he is a unique talent that will have plenty of suitors if the Astros choose not to lean hard into their pursuit of Valdez. If this last season has taught us anything it is that you can absolutely never have too many pitchers, but at what cost? Valdez is going to want to be paid in what should be the last big deal of his career, but he’s about to turn 32 and it would make sense for the Astros to transition to younger talent at this point even if it hurts them in the short term. Don’t expect them to go all out for Valdez.

    How do you address the injury problems?

    How is really the right interrogative because, at this point, we aren’t sure who is to blame. The rash of injuries, particularly serious ones to pitching, was hard to fathom and could point to the player development staff. Then there’s the fact that multiple players clearly came back before they were ready putting return to play protocols and team medical staff in the crosshairs.

    But, there are so many deep, complex issues when it comes to pitching injuries in baseball from max effort throws and spin rate to young players pushing too hard too soon — kids are getting Tommy John surgery in high school now. All of Major League Baseball is facing the epidemic of pitching injuries and there are no good answers yet. At the bare minimum, the Astros need to evaluate their entire medical process and determine how they can limit re-injuries and make sure they are not pushing guys either in development or in returning from injury.

    What can they do about the scoring woes?

    The Astros were in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored, but they were in the top 10 in hits. That points to two truths about this roster. First, they don’t hit home runs. They were 16th in homers this year even in a ballpark like Daikan with it’s short porch in left field. Second, they were awful with runners in scoring position. The Astros were 26th in on-base percentage with runners in scoring position, 22nd in slugging, and 11th in strikeouts. 

    This is way too much of a free swinging team for a group that doesn’t hit the long ball with any kind of frequency. If you are hitting close to 300 home runs as a team for the season, you can go up there and be aggressive. But, if you don’t even get to 200, you better show more plate discipline. This was a focus of the team last offseason and yet they got worse. Don’t be surprised if hitting coaches take the brunt of the blame, but this will be on the players to correct and improve.

    What does the infield look like next year?

    Maybe even more than the pitching staff, the way the Astros deal with the infield in the offseason will be fascinating to watch. Jeremy Peña is locked at shortstop and it is clear with Carlos Correa’s return, he isn’t moving off of third base. You would think Christian Walker, who still has two seasons left on his deal with the team, would be guaranteed a spot at first, but his hitting was sub par even if he remained very good defensively, and Isaac Paredes, who was the much better hitter last year, finds himself without a position.

    Moving Paredes to first would make a lot of sense, but what would happen to Walker? He can’t just DH because of Yordan Alvarez. There was talk about Paredes playing second, but with defense a high priority, that might not be the best option. Never mind the fact that Brice Matthews is absolutely banging on the door of the major league. And we haven’t even mentioned Jose Altuve yet. Oof.

    Of all the things GM Dana Brown needs to figure out this winter, the infield might be the most complicated.

    Jeff Balke

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  • Alex Bregman is a Free Agent, Will He Return to Houston

    Alex Bregman is a Free Agent, Will He Return to Houston

    Perhaps the most important signing (or non-signing) watch of the offseason began Thursday. With the Dodgers beating the Yankees in a yawner of a World Series, baseball is officially over until 2025, which means teams will begin the mad scramble that is hot stove season.

    For the Astros, all eyes are on Alex Bregman. The home grown third baseman is a free agent and should get a massive contract by the Astros or some other team. How much, how long and with whom are questions every Astros fan is wondering right now and no one knows the answer.

    Unlike previous seasons when the Astros allowed George Springer and Carlos Correa to leave via free agency, this is not a team that is still loaded with talent across the board. There is no Jeremy Peña waiting in the wings to take over at third base and no dominant other youngsters who might fill the void in the lineup. For the first time in the “golden era” of Astros baseball, Jim Crane may be forced to doll out the kind of contract he has been loathe to give previously.

    Not only is there not a viable option at third if Bregman leaves (making it more likely they will have to spend money on some high end free agent at that position), but he is rather unique among the Astros veterans. On field, he often acts like another coach, working with pitchers on strategy. He was one of the players who encouraged Yussei Kikuchi to throw specific pitches repeatedly that ended in tremendous success after coming to Houston.

    There is also a point where, as a franchise, you have to find a way to stop the bleeding and keep some of your best players in house. They have done that with Cristian Javier, Jose Altuve and, to a lesser extent, Yordan Alvarez. Altuve, in particular, has been vocal in his belief that Bregman should and will return to a roster that absolutely needs him in the lineup.

    By all accounts, Crane and GM Dana Brown will make a sizable offer to their third baseman. The average annual value (AAV) of the deal will likely be in line with some of the highest paid third basemen in the league. The question is will they offer enough years?

    Matt Chapman, a player who is better defensively and has very similar numbers to Bregman, but doesn’t have the same playoff resumé, got six-year $151 million deal from San Francisco this year. That will be the starting point for negotiations between the Astros and Bregman’s super agent Scott Boras (who also represents Altuve).

    Would, for example, five years, $160 million get it done? That’s $7 million more per season than Chapman, but one fewer year of the deal. If they Astros went to six years, would $180 million be enough to bring Bregman back or could he get more on the open market?

    The truth is, if the Astros give Bregman a fair offer with a high AAV and he still opts to leave for more money or more years (seven or eight seasons?), no one in Astro world (pun intended) should hang their heads. The Astros had the third highest payroll in baseball this year and it was still almost $55 million lower than the Yankees and more than $60 million lower than the Mets.

    By comparison, the A’s spent just over $63 million in total payroll in 2024.

    The Astros and Crane spend money and they will continue to be willing to do so. But there are factors beyond Bregman. A much bigger free agent year awaits them after the 2025 season when Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez (among others) enter free agency. Tucker will be worth more on the open market than Bregman. And none of this takes into account the fact that the Astros really don’t have an every day first baseman on the roster or in the minors.

    Everyone wants Alex Bregman back in an Astros uniform, but if he doesn’t sign in Houston, it won’t be because the Astros were cheap. It will be because the market it ridiculous and even with the third highest payroll in baseball, there are limits to what Jim Crane can spend.

    Jeff Balke

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  • Position Priorities for the Astros at the Trade Deadline

    Position Priorities for the Astros at the Trade Deadline

    The Major League Baseball trade deadline is less than two weeks away and the Astros have gone rather quickly from possible seller to almost certain buyer on the trade market. Just one game back in the division and facing the team ahead of them in the standings out of the gate, this is a team that believes they can win another division title and go deep in the postseason once again despite all the early season travails.

    GM Dana Brown has said they expect to be buyers at the deadline, which is July 30. But what exactly do they need? This is still a team in pretty good shape overall, but they definitely have weaknesses at several positions they will no doubt hope to address (we’ll get to whether they actually have the prospects to make it happen another time).

    POSITIONS OF ABSOLUTE NEED

    Starting Pitching
    Considering this is a team that only had eight total starting pitchers in 2023, it is absolutely remarkable the lengths they have gone to in an effort to make up for injuries that have decimated their staff. Their IL would make a formidable starting lineup if healthy. Instead, they’ve relied on rookies and pitchers who never started before and still managed to be really good. Adding depth to the rotation, even with the promise of Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia eventually returning, is a must at this point. “You can never have enough pitching” has absolutely been born out this season for the Astros. Their first and primary priority, no doubt, will be another arm for the rotation.

    Now, will they spend big or just look for an innings eater who might also be able to slide into a bullpen role? That’s a good question and one we cannot answer. But whatever the case, they need help here in the worst way.

    HIGH ON THE LIST

    Relief Pitching
    First Base

    The Astros have continued to sign warm bodies to roll into the bullpen throughout the season. It’s been necessary with all the injuries and huge workload for their pitching staff. So, it should come as no surprise they are going to be looking for additional arms for the bullpen…you can never have enough yada yada. The good news is it shouldn’t cost much. They don’t need a closer or even a setup guy. They just need a solid middle-innings reliever to complement guys like Seth Martinez and Tayler Scott — and to mitigate the struggles of Rafael Montero.

    As for first base, Jon Singleton has played extremely well since Jose Abreu was released. He isn’t ideal at that position, but he does provide power and has a very good eye at the plate. At minimum, finding another bat who can backup at first and be credible defensively, would be helpful. But don’t be surprised if they take a big swing at someone like Pete Alonso either.

    WE SHOULD BUT WE WON’T

    Third Base

    No one wants to linger on the fact it is highly unlikely Alex Bregman is an Astro next year. But, more critically, his impending free agency is set to leave a massive hole in the Astros infield, not just because he is so good but because they have literally no one in the minor leagues to replace him. It is one of the most glaring weaknesses in their farm system.

    Not making some kind of move to, at minimum, find a solid backup at the hot corner before the offseason will put a tremendous amount of pressure on the team to spend the money to replace Bregman…or spend the money to re-sign him. Either way, not making a move to do something about third is probably not in the cards even if maybe it should be.

    Jeff Balke

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  • Five Key Decisions Ahead for the Astros

    Five Key Decisions Ahead for the Astros

    The Astros closed out the symbolic first half of the season with a pair of losses to the Texas Rangers in Minute Maid Park. Fortunately, the Mariners also stumbled into the All-Star break leaving the Astros just one game back in the division with a head-to-head series in Seattle next week after the week off.

    With the All-Star break this week and the trade deadline looming just weeks away, the Astros, who have had a near complete reversal of fortunes after their rocky start, have plenty of questions to be answered as they get deeper into the summer. Here are five key decisions they will need to make in the next month.

    What to do about Rafael Montero?

    The Astros have clearly been working around the struggling reliever. When he finally did get an opportunity on Sunday, he gave up his eighth homer of the season, essentially putting the game out of reach. Montero is in the second year of a huge three-year deal that made him the highest paid no-closing reliever in baseball. He has not come close to living up to that money. Now, the Astros are actively having to work around his spot in the bullpen begging the question: Should they just cut him? It would be the second such move after Jose Abreu, another signing prior to the hiring of GM Dana Brown but after former GM James Click was fired, was released earlier this season. Montero is taking a spot that he doesn’t deserve. It may be time for owner Jim Crane to eat another contract for the good of the team.

    Should Lance McCullers, Jr. shut it down for the season?

    McCullers has not pitched since game three of the 2022 World Series when he gave up seven runs in four-and-a-third innings. He had only played in eight regular season games that year. In his career, he has pitched more than 150 innings just one, in 2021. Prior to that 162.1-inning season, his career best was 128.1 in 2018. After rehabbing from another surgery this offseason, he was expected to make a comeback this year, but had a setback that has pushed him back until at least August, maybe later. At what point do the Astros just shut him down entirely? That will be most of 2022 plus all of 2023 and 2024 lost to injury. It will also mean that nearly three of his five-season extension he signed before 2021 will be paid despite him not throwing a pitch. He will be a free agent after the 2026 season.

    click to enlarge

    The Astros All-Stars in 2024, but do they need help?

    Photo by Sean Thomas

    Do the Astros go big at the trade deadline?

    No doubt Astros fans would love to see them swing for the fences before the deadline. Names like Pete Alonzo and others have been floated. The problem is the team has few assets to be able to dangle in a serious deal, particularly if they are unwilling to unload major league roster talent to land a player. And they still must consider the fact that Alex Bregman is a free agent this year and Justin Verlander may very well be if he cannot reach the 140-inning threshold that triggers another contract year. That sets aside both Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, free agents after next year. It puts owner Jim Crane and GM Dana Brown in a very tough spot as the deadline approaches.

    How do they rebuild the farm system?

    In the first round of the MLB draft on Sunday, the Astros took a catcher from Sam Houston State University in Huntsville. The team has said their plan is to take the best players available regardless of position because they may eventually play at the big league level or they might wind up in a trade. With most draftees several years off from even considering pro ball, it makes sense, but the Astros still have some monumental holes in their minor league system that need filling. They lost their second round pick as compensation for the Josh Hader signing, but hopefully they can add depth in additional rounds.

    How can they balance rest and still winning?

    This is a team that has had to expend a ton of energy through the first half-plus of the season, particularly in the bullpen thanks to a poor start. They have had to prioritize winning over giving guys days off and they could clearly use the rest this week. But how do they manage those minutes going forward? We’ve seen Joe Espada give days off to players even when the team seemed to struggle, but if the race continues deep into August and September, will they wear their guys down — particularly the young players and rookies who have never worked this much — ahead of the postseason?

    Jeff Balke

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