Alex Bregman is a Free Agent, Will He Return to Houston

Perhaps the most important signing (or non-signing) watch of the offseason began Thursday. With the Dodgers beating the Yankees in a yawner of a World Series, baseball is officially over until 2025, which means teams will begin the mad scramble that is hot stove season.

For the Astros, all eyes are on Alex Bregman. The home grown third baseman is a free agent and should get a massive contract by the Astros or some other team. How much, how long and with whom are questions every Astros fan is wondering right now and no one knows the answer.

Unlike previous seasons when the Astros allowed George Springer and Carlos Correa to leave via free agency, this is not a team that is still loaded with talent across the board. There is no Jeremy Peña waiting in the wings to take over at third base and no dominant other youngsters who might fill the void in the lineup. For the first time in the “golden era” of Astros baseball, Jim Crane may be forced to doll out the kind of contract he has been loathe to give previously.

Not only is there not a viable option at third if Bregman leaves (making it more likely they will have to spend money on some high end free agent at that position), but he is rather unique among the Astros veterans. On field, he often acts like another coach, working with pitchers on strategy. He was one of the players who encouraged Yussei Kikuchi to throw specific pitches repeatedly that ended in tremendous success after coming to Houston.

There is also a point where, as a franchise, you have to find a way to stop the bleeding and keep some of your best players in house. They have done that with Cristian Javier, Jose Altuve and, to a lesser extent, Yordan Alvarez. Altuve, in particular, has been vocal in his belief that Bregman should and will return to a roster that absolutely needs him in the lineup.

By all accounts, Crane and GM Dana Brown will make a sizable offer to their third baseman. The average annual value (AAV) of the deal will likely be in line with some of the highest paid third basemen in the league. The question is will they offer enough years?

Matt Chapman, a player who is better defensively and has very similar numbers to Bregman, but doesn’t have the same playoff resumé, got six-year $151 million deal from San Francisco this year. That will be the starting point for negotiations between the Astros and Bregman’s super agent Scott Boras (who also represents Altuve).

Would, for example, five years, $160 million get it done? That’s $7 million more per season than Chapman, but one fewer year of the deal. If they Astros went to six years, would $180 million be enough to bring Bregman back or could he get more on the open market?

The truth is, if the Astros give Bregman a fair offer with a high AAV and he still opts to leave for more money or more years (seven or eight seasons?), no one in Astro world (pun intended) should hang their heads. The Astros had the third highest payroll in baseball this year and it was still almost $55 million lower than the Yankees and more than $60 million lower than the Mets.

By comparison, the A’s spent just over $63 million in total payroll in 2024.

The Astros and Crane spend money and they will continue to be willing to do so. But there are factors beyond Bregman. A much bigger free agent year awaits them after the 2025 season when Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez (among others) enter free agency. Tucker will be worth more on the open market than Bregman. And none of this takes into account the fact that the Astros really don’t have an every day first baseman on the roster or in the minors.

Everyone wants Alex Bregman back in an Astros uniform, but if he doesn’t sign in Houston, it won’t be because the Astros were cheap. It will be because the market it ridiculous and even with the third highest payroll in baseball, there are limits to what Jim Crane can spend.