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Tag: Cooperation

  • Italy’s Meloni plans a geopolitical Queen’s Gambit

    Italy’s Meloni plans a geopolitical Queen’s Gambit

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    Elisabeth Braw is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and adviser at Gallos Technologies and a regular columnist for POLITICO.

    In the 17th century, the Italian chess player Gioachino Greco created the world’s first chess handbook. One of the moves he recorded was the Queen’s Gambit, an ingenious opening in three parts.  

    Almost exactly 300 years later, his compatriot Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is about to launch a Queen’s Gambit of her own — in foreign policy. And much like Greco’s move, it involves several interlinked steps that, if executed successfully, could yield great dividends.  

    When Greco began his pioneering manuscript detailing entire chess matches, he was already considered one of the world’s best players. By contrast, Meloni was hardly a household name outside of Italy before leading her party to victory in the country’s parliamentary elections last year.  

    The world didn’t really know what to expect — especially when it came to foreign policy. Since then, however, Meloni has been surefooted on issues ranging from Ukraine to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. And when heads of state and government gather to address the world’s most pressing challenges at the United Nations General Assembly this week, the Italian prime minister will outline her Queen’s Gambit.  

    Meloni’s move involves several interconnected steps that deal with the national-security risks posed by climate change, strengthening the Euro-Atlantic alliance and helping African countries become more stable and secure. “Meloni has recently talked a great deal about the need to look at the entire global chessboard without losing sight of any area or piece,” her foreign policy advisor Ambassador Francesco Taló told me.  

    “For example, by moving the queen toward the East, we risk not noticing the bishop coming from Africa,” he added. 

    One could argue that the urgent issues we currently face are so interlinked, every head of government needs to develop a Queen’s Gambit. “In today’s situation, you can’t have vertical policy lines,” noted Taló, who previously served as Italy’s ambassador to NATO. “So many things are interconnected.”  

    But the need for such a strategy is particularly obvious in Italy, which sits at the nexus of Europe, Africa and the Middle East, and is a key participant in the globalized economy — as well as a similarly crucial participant in the West’s defense against Russia and its support of Ukraine. Then add to that the serious disruption coming every country’s way as artificial intelligence and climate change inexorably advance. 

    These real-world challenges are clearly not as neat as a chessboard, and the foreign policy moves have to be executed simultaneously rather than sequentially — but the intricacy of the strategy is the same.   

    Take climate change: To protect its astonishing number of UNESCO World Heritage sites — not to mention its famous viniculture and agriculture — Italy needs carbon reductions not just at home but around the world. Of course, far more than Italy’s stunning sites and food hangs in the balance here — without a significant reduction in carbon emissions, sections of Africa risk becoming uninhabitable, which would force even more people to make their way to Europe via Italy.  

    During the first half of this year, over 73,000 boat migrants reached the country — more than double the number from all of 2021. And if the world exceeds the crucial 1.5-degree average temperature increase, the number of those having to flee their homes will be many times that.

    Over 73,000 boat migrants reached the shores of Italy in the first half of 2023 | Antonio Masiello/Getty Images

    Just last week, thousands of Libyans died and thousands of others were left homeless when Storm Daniel pounded the country and collapsed a pair of dams. Meloni had phone calls with Libya’s two rival prime ministers, one after the other, the day after the disaster struck, and committed to assisting the country.  

    The U.N. Climate Change Summit COP28, which will be held in Dubai this December, will face this intricate task of addressing climate change even as the global economy worsens. Ultimately, however, the West needs to slash its carbon emissions — as does China. And in order to get results, the two sides need to work together closely, even as geopolitical tensions increase.  

    But these are not the only issues the Queen’s Gambit must address.  

    Like many other countries, Italy needs to slash its commercial links with Russia and reduce its dependence on China too. Meloni has already decided that Italy will leave China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country has managed to more than halve its Russian gas imports. The new electricity connector that’s being built between Tunisia and Sicily represents the flipside of this strategy — a new focus on expanded and multilayered collaboration with countries in Italy’s neighborhood.  

    This EU-financed connector will create jobs in Tunisia, help Italy reduce its dependence on Russian gas, and any surplus will go to Europe. And in the meantime, Meloni — joined by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte — has also negotiated a migration agreement with Tunisia, which was signed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in July. 

    The Italian prime minister is, in fact, trying to create the kind of mutually beneficial relationship that has so often eluded European and African countries. That they would benefit from teaming up on climate change and better commercial links is clear — and Meloni believes Italy can also help make the case for Ukraine with some African leaders who might be best suited to propose ways out of the war.  

    “Italy is trying to engage not just with Ukraine’s traditional supporters but with other countries that are willing to propose solutions as well,” Taló said. “After all, any country can be assaulted by its neighbor, so every country should be able to understand Ukraine’s situation.”  

    In the Italian parliament, Meloni herself has dramatically dressed down legislators who have suggested supporting Ukraine is futile. That’s a world away from March 2020, when a COVID-stricken Italy asked its EU friends for help but received sluggish answers. Instead, the country had to turn to Russia and China, which made a big show of their rather limited assistance.  

    Greco helped the Queen’s Gambit become one of chess’s favorite opening moves, one that’s still used by grand masters today. It doesn’t always succeed, but it’s always worth trying because its rewards are considerable. There’s no guarantee that a Queen’s Gambit will work on the foreign policy stage either — but with so many crises and challenges pressing at the same time, trying to tackle them one by one is futile.

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    Elisabeth Braw

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  • At global pariah summit, Putin and Kim Jong Un talk weapons and satellite tech

    At global pariah summit, Putin and Kim Jong Un talk weapons and satellite tech

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    On the lunch menu Wednesday at the Vostochny cosmodrome in Russia’s far east: Crab dumplings, entrecôte of marbled beef … with a side of deadly weapons.

    At the closely watched summit of global outcasts, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday pledged cooperation with North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un.

    While Russia was widely believed to be seeking an arms deal with North Korea, the meeting ended without major announcements on weapons, although Putin acknowledged that the issue was on the agenda.

    The meeting took place against the backdrop of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, which has isolated the Kremlin and left it hunting allies — and military equipment — in other ostracized capitals like Pyongyang and Tehran.

    “Our friendship has deep roots, and now our country’s first priority is relations with the Russian Federation,” Kim told reporters, after he arrived following a lengthy journey on his armored train for his first trip to Russia since 2019, according to Russian state-owned newswire Ria Novosti.

    “Russia has now risen to defend its state sovereignty and defend its security to counter the hegemonic forces that oppose Russia,” the North Korean ruler added, echoing the Kremlin’s propaganda used to justify its aggression in Ukraine. 

    Kim’s visit came as Russia is seeking to buy artillery ammunition from North Korea for its invasion of Ukraine, where Moscow is estimated to have used between 10 and 11 million rounds over the past 18 months in its grinding full-scale invasion, a Western official told Reuters last week.

    Military analysts say a potential arms deal between Moscow and Pyongyang could help Russia replenish its depleted stocks, but is unlikely to change the tide of the war.

    Asked whether military cooperation was on the agenda, Putin said: “We’ll talk about all the issues slowly. There is time.”

    The Russian president, who was accompanied by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for the negotiations, added that Russia would help North Korea build space satellites.

    “That’s why we came here. The leader of [North Korea] shows great interest in rocket technology, they are trying to develop space,” Putin said.

    Kim has made the development of spy satellites — an important military asset — a priority for his highly militarized country. So far, it has made two attempts to launch a satellite, both of which failed.

    The cosmodrome summit lasted over five hours in total and included a dinner consisting of a duck salad, crab dumplings, fish soup, then a choice of sturgeon with mushrooms and potatoes or an entrecôte of marbled beef with grilled vegetables, before ending on a dessert with berries. There was also a selection of Russian wines. 

    It ended with Kim toasting Putin’s “good health” and to “the continuous development of Russian-Korean friendship.”

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    Nicolas Camut

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  • Interpol fights for survival on its 100th birthday

    Interpol fights for survival on its 100th birthday

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    LYON, France — A century after it was founded, the world’s only global crime-fighting organization faces an existential question: Does the world still need it?

    Rising geopolitical tensions including between the United States and Russia and China are challenging the agency’s operating model, which relies on voluntary information-sharing among its members’ police forces. 

    Add to that persistent claims that its famed Red Notice alert system is subject to political manipulation and accusations of complicity in torture against Interpol’s Emirati president, Ahmed Naser Al-Raisi, and the crime-fighting organization faces a perfect storm.

    In an interview with POLITICO, Interpol Secretary General Jürgen Stock said the institution faces numerous difficulties, including over its funding situation. But he argued an agency that spans the globe is needed now more than ever amid international child sexual abuse, environmental crime and mafia groups like Italy’s ‘Ndrangheta.

    “The challenges are huge. I cannot say we are sufficiently resourced,” Stock said as the agency marks 100 years since it was founded in Vienna.

    “We are overwhelmed by cases of online child sexual exploitation. We are overwhelmed by cases of cybercrime … We are overwhelmed by drug trafficking,” he said. Such international operations are extremely resource-intensive, added the German former high-ranking police official.

    His pitch is that the global community can only tackle these kind of crimes through cooperation. “That is why a global platform is more important than ever. Can you consider if Interpol would not exist? People would say, we need such an agency.”

    He cited looming recession and the energy crisis as the main drags on Interpol’s funding push. Asked how much Interpol seeks, Stock did not name a figure, but said tens of millions of euros would be needed to sustain new systems for data and biometric analysis that have not been fully funded.

    With 195 member countries as of 2022, the agency’s total revenue in 2022 was €195 million, of which €86 million was “voluntary contributions” — money that member countries contribute to support certain projects.

    One of the complaints dogging Interpol is that its funding model is heavily reliant on members’ goodwill. Corporations including Philip Morris and associations like FIFA used to also donate large sums until Stock put an end to the practice in 2014 — a decision he said led to a “difficult couple of years.”

    Yet Interpol remains beholden to its government donors including the European Union, its largest single contributor, to pony up cash to support projects or bolster the agency’s capacity to analyze large data sets, for example.

    In March 2017, the agency received €50 million from the United Arab Emirates. Months later, its members elected as its president Emirati Major General Ahmed Nasser al-Raisi, who faced complaints lodged in France and Turkey a few months before his nomination over accusations of torture, which allegedly took place in 2018. The UAE’s foreign ministry rejected the complaints as “without foundation.”

    Asked about the claims against al-Raisi, Stock said they “are aware of the accusation,” adding that it is an “ongoing matter” and that it would be “inappropriate and immature” to comment further. He also defended the UAE donation, saying Interpol was “not a rich organization” and that the UAE did not decide precisely how the money would be spent.

    In March 2017, the agency received €50 million from the United Arab Emirates | Warren Little/Getty Images for XCAT

    In addition, Red Notices — which signal that a person is wanted by a member country, but is not an arrest warrant — face criticism that they can be manipulated by repressive regimes pursuing political opponents. A 2022 report from the European Parliament said political use of Red Notices was a persistent “problem,” citing the example of a Ukrainian opera director who was arrested in Italy following a Red Notice issued by Russia.

    Stock acknowledged that Russia’s war against Ukraine has “had an impact on police cooperation,” but argued the Red Notice system was sound. “We are checking intensively whether the request is in line with Interpol’s procedures,” he said, adding that Interpol is not a “quasi-court.”

    While critics say Interpol is hamstrung by its inability to pursue state-backed criminals and terrorists, Stock argued that it’s precisely the agency’s studied neutrality — which does not allow any member to compel any other to do anything — that allows it to be effective in what it can do.

    Stock’s term as Interpol secretary-general, essentially its chief executive, ends in late 2024. Stephen Kavanagh, Interpol’s executive director for police services and, as of Wednesday, a candidate to be Stock’s successor, argued that Interpol’s staying power through 100 years was due to its low profile.

    “The reason we are surviving despite the scale of global conflict is because we don’t try to exert power over our members. We can’t order countries to investigate or not investigate — which allows us to be effective in bolstering cooperation,” Kavanagh said.

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    Nicholas Vinocur and Elisa Braun

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  • Rishi Sunak hopes AI could be his legacy

    Rishi Sunak hopes AI could be his legacy

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    NEW DELHI — With the clock likely ticking on his time in Downing Street, Rishi Sunak wants to secure a legacy on the world stage. The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) may be just what he needs.
      
    The British prime minister faces a general election next year with his Conservative Party languishing 18 points behind the Labour opposition in the polls.

    But though Sunak told reporters travelling with him to the G20 leaders’ summit in India this weekend he was “entirely confident” he can still win re-election, U.K. government insiders say the PM already has one eye on his possible post-Downing Street legacy.
      
    Sunak takes pride in how he has helped repair the U.K.’s diplomatic standing after the rancour of Boris Johnson’s premiership and Liz Truss’ brief but disastrous stint in power. He sees the Windsor Framework — the agreement on post-Brexit trade checks in Ireland which markedly improved U.K. relations with the EU and the U.S. — as his signature achievement so far.
     
    Now the bigger prize in Sunak’s sights is the opportunity to position the U.K. as the leading authority on the governance of AI.
     
    “He sees it as one of his long-term legacy pieces,” one government adviser told POLITICO. “Shaping the world’s response to a paradigm-shifting technology would be a big deal — and it would be recognized as a big deal.” A second government official said Sunak “never misses a chance” to bring up AI.
     
    There are several existing international forums for governments to discuss AI regulation, including a G7 process and the EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council. Sunak’s challenge is to convince countries to take the U.K. seriously as a place to bring existing initiatives together and fold in unrepresented countries. And that will require some skillful diplomacy.

    From G20 to AI summit

    Sunak used conversations with other world leaders at the G20 to drum up interest in his landmark AI safety summit, which is taking place in the U.K. in November. The invitation list has yet to be made public, but is expected to include a range of countries including China.
     
    The prime minister told POLITICO en route to New Delhi: “So far, the response we’ve had has been really positive, people are really keen to participate and they recognize that the U.K. can play a leadership role in AI.”

    At a technology-focused session of the summit on Sunday the PM made comments on the need to develop AI responsibly. He praised India for “bringing AI to the top of the agenda at the G20” and said that there was “an opportunity for human progress that could surpass the industrial revolution in both speed and breadth.”

    He told leaders that first and foremost, the development of AI had to be done safely to manage risks. “This requires international cooperation,” he said. “The U.K. will be hosting the first ever international AI Safety Summit in November to help drive this forward.”

    Sunak added that the technology must also be developed securely “to protect the digital economy from malevolent actors and states” and fairly to “ensure inclusivity.”

    UK NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

    For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

    “Getting this right is one of the greatest challenges and opportunities of our age,” Sunak said. “Let’s work together to make sure we all benefit.”

    Lacking luster

    But to make Sunak’s summit a success — and help secure his legacy — he will be reliant on the buy-in and active participation of fellow world leaders.

    Despite Sunak congratulating his host Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on a successful summit, the G20 was noteworthy for the absence of powerful figures including China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

    Sunak will be hoping to avoid similar ‘no shows’ at his AI summit. He has already been dealt a blow with news last month that U.S. President Joe Biden will not be attending.

    Key European leaders have also failed to confirm their attendance. In comments to POLITICO, one French official questioned the need for U.K. mediation, given alternative international avenues for discussing AI.

    Sunak’s experience at the G20 also demonstrates the difficulties of choreographing the good optics and effective diplomacy required for a successful summit.

    Predictions from U.K. government figures that Sunak would be mobbed by the adoring public did not materialize in a locked-down New Delhi where there were few people on the streets.
     
    There were also hiccups in Sunak’s summit agenda. He had been due to meet Modi at his house on Friday but that was replaced with a 20-minute meeting on the margins of the summit on Saturday. On Friday night Modi hosted President Biden for dinner instead. The two leaders held talks for about an hour.
     
    A planned business reception for Sunak on Friday at the British High Commission was also cancelled, because of transport issues. Sunak’s spokesperson said rescheduling was “part and parcel” of any summit.
     
    Things did improve over the weekend for the British PM. Modi and Sunak were filmed bear-hugging each other when they met. According to the U.K. government’s readout, Modi “noted the warm reception” Sunak had had in India, and the pair had agreed to continue moving towards a free trade agreement “at pace.”

    The Indian government said Modi has now formally invited Sunak for a bilateral visit, after POLITICO reported that U.K. officials were already drawing up plans for a possible return trip for Sunak later this year.

    Additional reporting by Vincent Manancourt.

    U.K. PRIME MINISTER APPROVAL RATING

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    Eleni Courea

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  • Ukraine threatens legal action against EU if grain curbs drag on

    Ukraine threatens legal action against EU if grain curbs drag on

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    Ukraine is threatening to take Brussels and EU member countries to the World Trade Organization if they fail to lift restrictions on its agricultural exports to the bloc this month.

    The country’s grain exports — its main trade commodity — are currently banned from the markets of Poland, Hungary and three other EU countries under a deal struck with the European Commission earlier this year to protect farmers from an influx of cheaper produce from their war-torn neighbor.

    The glut, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its blockade of the country’s traditional Black Sea export routes, has driven a wedge between Ukraine and the EU’s eastern frontline states which have been among the strongest backers of Kyiv’s military fightback.

    The restrictions, already extended once, are due to expire on September 15. Amid speculation that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will let them lapse, Poland and Hungary have threatened to impose their own unilateral import bans, in violation of the bloc’s common trade rules.

    “With full respect and gratitude to Poland, in case of introduction of any bans after [September 15], Ukraine will bring the case against Poland and the EU to the World Trade Organization,” Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s deputy economy minister, told POLITICO.

    Kyiv has argued that the restrictions violate the EU-Ukraine free-trade agreement from 2014.

    Kachka’s comments backed up a warning this week from Igor Zhovka, a senior aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. If Brussels fails to act against the countries that violate the trade agreement, Kyiv “reserves the choice of legal mechanisms on how to respond,” Zhovka told Interfax-Ukraine.

    The Ukrainian foreign ministry said Kyiv reserved the right to initiate arbitration proceedings under its association agreement with the EU, or to apply to the WTO.

    “We do not intend to retaliate immediately given the spirit of friendship and solidarity between Ukraine and the EU,” explained Kachka. But, he added, the systemic threat to Ukrainian interests “forces us to bring this case to the WTO.”

    Crisis warning

    Russia’s war of aggression and partial occupation has cut Ukraine’s grain production in half, compared to before the war, while Moscow’s withdrawal in July from a U.N.-brokered deal allowing safe passage for some seaborne exports has raised concerns that EU-backed export corridors won’t be able to cope.

    The bloc’s agriculture commissioner, Janusz Wojciechowski, struggled to explain to European lawmakers at a hearing on Thursday how Brussels would handle the situation after September 15.

    Wojciechowski, who is Polish, also appeared to sympathize with the right-wing government in Warsaw, which has latched on to the fight over Ukrainian grain as a campaign issue ahead of mid-October general elections in which it is seeking an unprecedented third term.

    The bloc’s agriculture commissioner, Janusz Wojciechowski, struggled to explain to European lawmakers how Brussels would handle the situation after September 15 | Olivier Hoslet/EFE via EPA

    The curbs should be extended at least until the end of the year; otherwise “we will have a huge crisis again in the five frontline member states,” Wojciechowski said, adding that this was his personal position and not that of the EU executive.

    The Commission’s decision in April to restrict imports to the five countries, which came with a €100 million aid package, met widespread disapproval from other EU governments and European lawmakers for undermining the integrity of the bloc’s single market.

    Kachka, in written comments sent in response to questions from POLITICO, said there was no evidence of price deviations or a significant increase in grain supplies that would justify extending the import restrictions. Kyiv had engaged in “constructive cooperation” with the Commission, the five member states, as well as Moldova, a key transit hub for Ukrainian exports to the EU.

    “We got a lot of support for ensuring better transit of the goods through the territory of neighboring member states, including Poland and Hungary,” Kachka said. “During [the] last two months we significantly advanced cooperation with Romania on transportation of goods from Ukraine.”

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    Bartosz Brzezinski

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  • Dutch cozy up to US with controls on exporting microchip kit to China

    Dutch cozy up to US with controls on exporting microchip kit to China

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    BRUSSELS — The Netherlands on Friday started enforcing new export controls restrictions on advanced microchips production machines to China, siding with Washington in the geopolitical tussle over who controls the critical technology.

    The export controls, part of a three-way deal between the United States, Netherlands and Japan at the start of the year, affect advanced microchips printing equipment. “Uncontrolled export [of the equipment] can have risks for the public security,” the Dutch regulation said.

    The Dutch rules come in support of a U.S.-led strategy to choke off China from critical parts of the supply chain needed to manufacture high-end microchips used in consumer electronics, computing and other domains — including military applications. “It’s necessary to check in advance who’s the end user and what the end use is of the production equipment,” the Dutch advocate in the regulation.

    But the measures also put a target on the back of Dutch semiconductor champion ASML — Europe’s highest-valued tech company with a market value of around €240 billion — and have caused critics in Europe to accuse the Dutch government of bowing to U.S. pressure too easily.

    ASML already faced restrictions on the export of its most advanced machines, which use extreme ultraviolet light (EUV). The new rules require the company to apply for a permit for at least three types of its machines that use less advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV). The government expects about 20 annual applications in total for a permit because of the additional DUV restrictions.

    Decoupling will be ‘extremely expensive’

    The Dutch decision to align export controls policy with Washington and Tokyo has sidelined other European Union member countries and Europe’s own chips industry in past months.

    The rules don’t seem to bite in the short term: ASML didn’t change its financial outlook for this year, nor its “longer-term scenarios.” Part of the explanation there is that ASML was still granted the necessary licenses it needed until the end of the year, an ASML spokesperson said Thursday, allowing the company to “fulfill contractual obligations.” The company added though that it was “unlikely” to receive export licences for Chinese customers from January onward.

    But the company is fully aware that restrictions to the Chinese market out of security concerns could become a slippery slope, threatening its unique position in a global — and highly efficient — supply chain.

    Decoupling between the West and China will be “extremely difficult and extremely expensive,” Christophe Fouquet, the company’s executive vice president, said in June. Earlier, ASML CEO Peter Wennink said that putting “locks” on the global chips ecosystem would have “far-reaching consequences.”

    It could also incite China to accelerate its own production ecosystem for advanced chips — something that has not been sufficiently taken into consideration, according to critics of the export restrictions.

    ASML CEO Peter Wennink said that putting “locks” on the global chips ecosystem would have “far-reaching consequences” | Bas Czerwinski/EFE via EPA

    “We’re giving a clear signal to the world: The export of our products can stop if a country bothers the U.S., because the Netherlands immediately succumbs under the pressure,” Laurens Dassen, a Dutch lawmaker for the pan-European Volt party, said in a statement.

    “You already see that China is starting to produce these chips itself instead of buying them from us,” Dassen said.

    Seeking security

    The Dutch decision has prompted the rest of the European Union to speed up their work to coordinate export controls and manage risks emanating from trading with China.

    Before the summer, the European Commission presented its economic security package — including a promise to review the bloc’s export control regime. The Commission has said that it wants to come up with a “list of technologies which are critical to economic security” as part of the package.

    Behind the scenes, diplomats and officials are squabbling over how to balance Europe’s need for trade defenses for security purposes with its strategy to promote free trade and keep its industries competitive with other regions.

    It’s something that Dutch politicians welcome, if only to avoid being the only ones in Europe pioneering ways to regulate sensitive tech.

    “In the previous decades, technology has become determinate for geopolitical relations. If that’s the case, you will need a policy in the area of technology,” Bart Groothuis, a liberal lawmaker who co-negotiated the bloc’s Chips Act, said. The Chips Act already has some provisions that allow for more European cooperation on export controls.

    The Netherlands and Europe shouldn’t follow the U.S. “blindly” in that area, Volt’s Dassen added: “It’s about time that Europe determines its own fate. We have to make our own strategic choices and not be dependent” — on China, nor on the U.S.

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    Pieter Haeck and Barbara Moens

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  • Wagner forces are trying to ‘destabilize’ NATO, Polish PM says

    Wagner forces are trying to ‘destabilize’ NATO, Polish PM says

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    Russia’s Wagner Group might carry out “sabotage actions” and their threat should not be underestimated, said Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on Thursday, warning that the mercenary group’s provocations are an attempt to destabilize NATO.

    Morawiecki and Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda met at the Suwałki Gap to discuss the threat posed by the Wagner forces, some of whom have relocated to Belarus following the aborted mutiny in June against the Kremlin.

    “Our borders have been stopping various hybrid attacks for years,” Morawiecki said. “Russia and Belarus are increasing their numerous provocations and intrigues in order to destabilize the border of NATO’s eastern flank.”

    Nausėda echoed the sentiment, saying the presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus is a security risk for Lithuania, Poland and other NATO allies.

    “We stay vigilant and prepared for any possible scenario,” Nausėda wrote on social media. Morawiecki said that the number of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus could exceed 4,000.

    The Polish prime minister also thanked Lithuania for “military cooperation and for the joint promise that we will defend every piece of land of NATO countries.”

    “Today, the borders of Poland and Lithuania are the borders of the free world that stops the pressure from the despotism from the East,” he said, about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing war on Ukraine.

    Nausėda said that any closing of the border with Belarus is a decision that should be taken “in a coordinated way between Poland, Lithuania and Latvia,” national broadcaster LRT reported.

    Some Wagner troops have moved to Belarus from Russia under a deal to end the group’s 24-hour rebellion against Moscow led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. The move immediately sparked tension with Belarusian neighbors, prompting Poland to re-station military units to the east of the country, closer to the frontier with Belarus.

    Tensions escalated Tuesday when Poland moved troops to its border after accusing two Belarusian helicopters of breaching its airspace. Belarus denied the accusation, but Poland notified NATO and summoned Belarusian representatives to discuss the incident.

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    Claudia Chiappa

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  • Niger coup leaves France, US exposed in West Africa

    Niger coup leaves France, US exposed in West Africa

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    PARIS — An ongoing military coup in Niger is threatening to destabilize one of the last Western allies in Africa’s Sahel region.

    On Wednesday night, Niger’s top military brass announced on national television they had overthrown the country’s president Mohamed Bazoum, who was democratically elected in 2021.

    “We, the Defense and Security Forces, united within the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, have decided to put an end to the regime you know,” Colonel Major Amadou Abdramane said, according to Agence France-Presse. “This follows the continuing deterioration of the security situation, and poor economic and social governance,” he added.

    A change of regime in Niger could be a blow to the West — and more specifically to France and the United States, who have strong ties to the West African nation.

    For both Paris and Washington, Niger is a strategic country in the fight against Islamist terrorism. Viewed as “one of the most reliable U.S. allies” against al Qaeda, Islamic State and Boko Haram, it’s also one of the last Sahel nations that hasn’t deepened cooperation with Russia to the West’s detriment.

    According to Le Monde, there are no obvious signs of Moscow’s footprint in the Niger coup, which is mostly driven by internal matters.

    However the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary outfit led by Yevgeny Prigozhin that is active in Africa, claimed credit for the coup Thursday.

    “What happened is the struggle of the people of Niger against the colonialists,” Prigozhin said in a voice message posted in a Wagner-branded Telegram channel. “This is actually gaining independence and getting rid of the colonialists.”
    ㅤ
    “This shows the effectiveness of Wagner,” Prigozhin continued. “A thousand Wagner fighters are able to restore order and destroy terrorists, preventing them from harming the civilian population of states.”

    The same channel also posted a photo of Prigozhin shaking hands with an unidentified man on the sidelines of a Russia-Africa summit being hosted in St Petersburg by President Vladimir Putin. The posts appeared intended as a demonstration of strength by Prigozhin, who led a mutiny last month in which his troops marched to within 200 km of Moscow before standing down.

    For France, Bazoum’s forced departure would mark yet another setback in the region, only months after French troops had to withdraw from neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, effectively ending the Barkhane operation.

    Paris, whose influence in West Africa has been significantly waning in recent years, has reportedly deployed about 1,500 French soldiers in Niger. The government in Niger has expressed satisfaction at the bilateral military agreement. The country was supposed to be a “laboratory” for a new type of military relationship based on equal-footing cooperation between France — a former colonial power — and African governments.

    The French foreign affairs ministry issued a statement overnight expressing “concerns” about the events, adding it “firmly condemns any attempt to seize power by force.” The ministry also released a warning message for French citizens living in Niger, urging them to limit movements and follow safety instructions.

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Bazoum overnight and expressed the U.S.’s “unwavering” support. “The strong U.S. economic and security partnership with Niger depends on the continuation of democratic governance and respect for the rule of law and human rights,” according to a statement.

    For France, the coup’s timing is challenging, as French President Emmanuel Macron is on a five-day visit to the Indo-Pacific region with his Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu and most of his staff. Blinken is currently also in the region.

    Douglas Busvine contributed to this report. This story has been updated with comments by Prigozhin.

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    Laura Kayali

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  • EU finalizes migrant deal with Tunisia

    EU finalizes migrant deal with Tunisia

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    The EU finalized an agreement with Tunisia on Sunday to boost trade relations and stem migrant departures from the African country to Europe.

    Under the deal, which the European Commission had been struggling to push over the line, the EU is to provide cash to Tunis in exchange for stronger border controls.

    Exact financial details of the agreement were not given in the EU statement on Sunday. But Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said last month that the EU was ready to provide Tunisia with more than €1 billion in areas including trade, investment and energy cooperation.

    The statement said the agreement covers five pillars: migration, macro-economic stability, trade and investment, green energy transition, and people-to-people contacts.

    On economic development, von der Leyen told a press conference in Tunis that the EU is “ready to support Tunisia by mobilizing macro-financial assistance as soon as the necessary conditions are met.” She added that as a “bridging step, we are ready to provide immediate budget support.”

    While she didn’t give details on Sunday, von der Leyen said in June that the Commission was considering up to €900 million in macro-financial aid, plus “up to €150 million in budget support” directly.

    Von der Leyen traveled to Tunisia on Sunday along with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to meet again with Tunisian President Kais Saied. A similar meeting last month had failed to propel the talks to conclusion before a late June EU leaders’ summit as had been hoped. 

    “Migration is a significant element of the agreement we have signed today,” Rutte told the press conference on Sunday. “It is essential to gain more control of irregular migration.”

    Von der Leyen said that under the agreement, the EU will provide Tunisia with €100 million to improve border management, search and rescue, anti-smuggling measures and other initiatives to address the migration issue.

    “The tragic shipwreck a few weeks ago, in which many people lost their lives, was yet another call for action,” von der Leyen said. “We need to crack down on criminal networks of smugglers and traffickers.”

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    Jones Hayden

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  • Migration money feud infiltrates EU summit

    Migration money feud infiltrates EU summit

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    BRUSSELS — EU countries are bickering over granting billions in new funds to deal with migration as asylum applications soar and backlogs pile up at the Continent’s borders. 

    Germany, which received a quarter of all EU asylum applications in 2022, specifically wants to “revitalize” the EU’s ties with neighboring Turkey, according to a senior German official — a nod to the last time the bloc faced such levels of migration. 

    Then, in 2016, the EU offered Turkey billions in exchange for the country housing thousands of Syrian refugees fleeing civil war. Now, there is a push to authorize up to €10.5 billion in new money for not just Turkey, but also countries like Libya or Tunisia, hoping it would help them prevent people from entering the EU without permission. 

    The debate has jumped onto the agenda of an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. And countries are sparring over whether to reference a monetary request in the meeting’s final conclusions, according to five diplomats and officials from four different countries. 

    The behind-the-scenes fight illustrates how much migration has come to dominate the political agenda. Organizers for the summit had hoped to keep the divisive migration talk to a minimum in favor of discussions on Russia, China and economic security. But with high-profile disasters like the recent migrant shipwreck near Greece and arrival figures continuing their steep climb, the heated issue is becoming increasingly hard to avoid. 

    Notably, draft conclusions for the summit, dated Wednesday evening and seen by POLITICO, still had two indirect references to the fresh migration funds: The €10.5 billion pot and another €2 billion for “managing migration” within the EU’s own borders. 

    Whether that language survives until Friday is another question. 

    Germany: Let’s talk Turkey, not money

    Germany, as always, is one of the key players in the debate — and in this instance, it is making arguments for both sides.

    On one side, Berlin wants to renew the EU’s relationship with Turkey, hoping it can take in more asylum seekers and help cut down on unauthorized border crossings. In return, the Germans want the EU to improve trade ties with the country. 

    On the other side, however, Berlin is fiercely opposing the attempt to explicitly mention money in the summit conclusions. The logic: Committing to fresh billions now would imperil upcoming talks over whether to add €66 billion to its budget. Germany wants to discuss the whole package at once, instead of approving parts of it in advance.

    As of Wednesday night, the summit conclusions draft still contained an indirect endorsement of the money.

    Germany, as always, is one of the key players in the debate — and in this instance, it is making arguments for both sides | David Gannon/AFP via Getty Images

    The document mentions “financing mechanisms” — seen as a reference to the €10.5 billion — for “the external aspects of migration.” That money would go to countries like Turkey, Libya and Tunisia, which migrants often traverse on their way to Europe. 

    There’s also an indirect reference to the €2 billion for internal EU migration management. The text calls for “support for displaced persons,” particularly from Ukraine, via “adequate and flexible financial assistance to the member states who carry the largest burden of medical, education and living costs of refugees.” Translated, that would mean more money for countries that host the bulk of Ukrainian refugees, like Poland and Germany. 

    Yet during a meeting of EU ambassadors on Wednesday, German officials urged their counterparts to cut or massively reduce both passages, according to the five diplomats and officials, who, like other officials in this story, were granted anonymity because they are not allowed to publicly discuss the talks.

    As of Wednesday night, that appeal had failed. But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz may take up the issue himself with his counterparts on Thursday.

    The German argument is that including the figures would mean EU leaders are essentially making a big step toward endorsing the full budget package — which the European Commission requested just last week — before even discussing it, two of the officials said. 

    Nevertheless, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to briefly present her €66 billion budget plan during the gathering of EU leaders on Thursday, meaning there will likely be an initial debate about the money, the officials said. 

    Von der Leyen’s plans are expected to run into resistance from a number of countries, particularly the so-called “frugal” countries, including Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden.

    Speaking to a briefing for reporters in Berlin on Wednesday, a senior German official also voiced caution about von der Leyen’s plan.

    “One of the questions is: Is the Commission’s assessment of the situation convincing?” said the senior official, who could not be named due to the rules under which the briefing was organized.

    Time to work with Erdoğan again? 

    At the same time, the senior German official stressed Berlin’s interest in renewing the EU relationship with Turkey.

    “[Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan has been re-elected, and this must be an opportunity for the EU to take another broad look at its relationship with Turkey,” the official said. 

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images

    “For us, it’s a matter of putting EU-Turkey relations once again on the agenda … to possibly revitalize them, if all sides want to commit to this,” the official continued, adding that the European Commission and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell should “come back in the fall with proposals.”

    One idea could be an update of the EU’s trade rules with Turkey — a thorny issue, though, as talks between Brussels and Ankara have failed to make progress on modernizing the so-called EU-Turkey customs union for several years.

    Germany’s Scholz held a phone call with Erdoğan on Wednesday during which both leaders discussed how “to cooperate further and deepen exchanges on various cooperation issues,” according to Steffen Hebestreit, Scholz’s spokesperson. 

    Any progress in EU-Turkey relations would also require the agreement of the EU countries perpetually at odds with Turkey — Greece and Cyprus.

    At least in that sense, there seems to be progress: “We agreed to include a paragraph on Turkey and the future relations,” a Greek diplomat said.

    The latest draft conclusions from Wednesday evening ask Borrell and the Commission “submit a report” on EU-Turkey relations “with a view to proceeding in a strategic and forward-looking manner.”

    Barbara Moens, Jakob Hanke Vela, Lili Bayer, Jacopo Barigazzi and Gregorio Sorgi contributed reporting.

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    Hans von der Burchard

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  • Questions mount over latest migrant tragedy in Mediterranean

    Questions mount over latest migrant tragedy in Mediterranean

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    Anger is growing over the handling of a migrant boat disaster off Greece last week that has become one of the biggest tragedies in the Mediterranean in years. The calamity is dominating the country’s political agenda a week ahead of snap elections.

    The Hellenic Coast Guard is facing increasing questions over its response to the fishing boat that sank off Greece’s southern peninsula on Wednesday, leading to the death of possibly hundreds of migrants. Nearly 80 people are known to have perished in the wreck and hundreds are still missing, according to the U.N.’s migration and refugee agencies.

    Critics say that the Greek authorities should have acted faster to keep the vessel from capsizing. There are testimonies from survivors that the Coast Guard tied up to the vessel and attempted to pull it, causing the boat to sway, which the Greek authorities strongly deny.

    The boat may have been carrying as many as 750 passengers, including women and children, according to reports. Many of them were trapped underneath the deck in the sinking, according to Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency. “The ship was heavily overcrowded,” Frontex said.  

    About 100 people are known to have survived the sinking. Authorities continued to search for victims and survivors over the weekend.

    The disaster may be “the worst tragedy ever” in the Mediterranean Sea, European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson said on Friday. She said there has been a massive increase in the number of migrant boats heading from Libya to Europe since the start of the year.

    Frontex said in a statement on Friday that no agency plane or boat was present at the time of the capsizing on Wednesday. The agency said it alerted the Greek and Italian authorities about the vessel after a Frontex plane spotted it, but the Greek officials waved off an offer of additional help.

    Greece has been at the forefront of Europe’s migration crisis since 2015, when hundreds of thousands of people from the Middle East, Asia and Africa traveled thousands of miles across the Continent hoping to claim asylum.

    Migration and border security have been key issues in the Greek political debate. Following Wednesday’s wreck, they have jumped to the top of the agenda, a week before national elections on June 25.

    Greece is currently led by a caretaker government. Under the conservative New Democracy administration, in power until last month, the country adopted a tough migration policy. In late May, the EU urged Greece to launch a probe into alleged illegal deportations.

    New Democracy leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who is expected to return to the prime minister’s office after the vote next Sunday, blasted criticism of the Greek authorities, saying it should instead be directed to the human traffickers, who he called “human scums.”

    “It is very unfair for some so-called ‘people in solidarity’ [with refugees and migrants] to insinuate that the [Coast Guard] did not do its job. … These people are out there … battling the waves to rescue human lives and protect our borders,” Mitsotakis, who maintains a significant lead in the polls, said during a campaign event in Sparta on Saturday.

    The Greek authorities claimed the people on board, some thought to be the smugglers who had arranged the boat from Libya, refused assistance and insisted on reaching Italy. So the Greek Coast Guard did not intervene, though it monitored the vessel for more than 15 hours before it eventually capsized.

    “What orders did the authorities have, and they didn’t intervene because one of these ‘scums’ didn’t give them permission?” the left-wing Syriza party said in a statement. “Why was no order given to the lifeboat … to immediately assist in a rescue operation? … Why were life jackets not distributed … and why Frontex assistance was not requested?”

    Alarm Phone, a network of activists that helps migrants in danger, said the Greek authorities had been alerted repeatedly many hours before the boat capsized and that there was insufficient rescue capacity.

    According to a report by WDR citing migrants’ testimonies, attempts were made to tow the endangered vessel, but in the process the boat began to sway and sank. Similar testimonies by survivors appeared in Greek media.

    A report on Greek website news247.gr said the vessel remained in the same spot off the town of Pylos for at least 11 hours before sinking. According to the report, the location on the chart suggests the vessel was not on a “steady course and speed” toward Italy, as the Greek Coast Guard said.

    After initially saying that there was no effort to tow the boat, the Hellenic Coast Guard said on Friday that a patrol vessel approached and used a “small buoy” to engage the vessel in a procedure that lasted a few minutes and then was untied by the migrants themselves.

    Coast Guard spokesman Nikos Alexiou defended the agency. “You cannot carry out a violent diversion on such a vessel with so many people on board, without them wanting to, without any sort of cooperation,” he said.

    Alexiou said there is no video of the operation available.

    Nine people, most of them from Egypt, were arrested over the capsizing, charged with forming a criminal organization with the purpose of illegal migrant trafficking, causing a shipwreck and endangering life. They will appear before a magistrate on Monday, according to Greek judicial authorities.

    “Unfortunately, we have seen this coming because since the start of the year, there was a new modus operandi with these fishing boats leaving from the eastern part of Libya,” the EU’s Johansson told a press conference on Friday. “And we’ve seen an increase of 600 percent of these departures this year,” she added.

    Greek Supreme Court Prosecutor Isidoros Dogiakos has urged absolute secrecy in the investigations being conducted in relation to the shipwreck.

    Thousands of people took to the streets in different cities in Greece last week to protest the handling of the incident and the migration policies of Greece and the EU. More protests were planned for Sunday.

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    Nektaria Stamouli

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  • Sinn Féin scores record win in Northern Ireland as voters rage at DUP blockade of Stormont

    Sinn Féin scores record win in Northern Ireland as voters rage at DUP blockade of Stormont

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    DUBLIN — Sinn Féin has scaled new electoral heights in Northern Ireland. They can thank the Stormont-wrecking antics of their sworn enemies, the Democratic Unionist Party, for making it possible.

    The Irish republicans had been tipped to finish a strong first place in Northern Ireland’s council elections last Thursday, overtaking Jeffrey Donaldson’s DUP along the way. But even Sinn Fein’s wildest hopes were eclipsed as the weekend’s results built to a crescendo over a marathon two-day count.

    When final results were declared in Belfast City Hall after midnight Saturday, Sinn Féin had won 144 seats, a 39-seat gain that more than doubled expectations. Its 30.9 percent share of the vote marked a historic high, two points better even than last year’s poll-topping Northern Ireland Assembly election — a performance that should have propelled the party’s regional leader, Michelle O’Neill, into the first minister’s chair for the first time.

    But O’Neill has been denied the chance to lead a cross-community executive, as the Good Friday peace accord intended, because the Democratic Unionists — used to finishing first — have spent the past year blocking the formation of any government at Stormont. The current rules of power-sharing require both Sinn Féin and the DUP to participate.

    According to analysts and other party leaders, the DUP’s obstructionist tactics may have galvanized support with unionist die-hards — but also triggered waves of new support for their traditional enemies from voters sick of the deadlock.

    “Jeffrey Donaldson has become the greatest recruiting sergeant possible for republicans. The longer Michelle O’Neill is blocked from becoming first minister, the more voters are driven into the arms of her party,” wrote Suzanne Breen, political editor of the Belfast Telegraph.

    Social Democratic and Labour Party leader Colum Eastwood, who competes with Sinn Féin in Irish nationalist areas, said his own moderate party’s grassroots had switched to Sinn Féin in unprecedented numbers because the DUP had exhausted their patience.

    “They’re very annoyed that Michelle O’Neill hasn’t been able to become first minister,” said Eastwood, whose party — one of the architects of the Good Friday breakthrough a quarter-century ago — suffered heavy losses amid the Sinn Féin-DUP showdown.

    “They want politicians to get back to work and deal with the issues besetting our community,” Eastwood said. “Now it’s over to the DUP to get on with it.”

    Still waiting

    When or whether the DUP actually does so remains far from certain, given that its own vote held up well at Thursday’s election.

    Donaldson and other senior DUP figures have spent the past three months picking holes in the British government’s Windsor Framework, the successor post-Brexit trade deal for Northern Ireland designed to reduce — but not eliminate — EU-required checks on goods arriving from the rest of the United Kingdom. Unionists argue such checks effectively place Northern Ireland partly outside the U.K., and on a slippery slope toward a united Ireland, Sinn Féin’s ultimate goal.

    U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had hoped the Windsor Framework compromise package would have persuaded the DUP to resume cooperation at Stormont with a strengthened Sinn Féin.

    Jeffrey Donaldson said that his party’s resilient performance showed most unionists would rather have no Stormont than accept “barriers to trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.” | Charles McQuillan/Getty Images

    But Donaldson told reporters at Belfast City Hall that his party’s resilient performance — it won 122 of the 462 seats on Northern Ireland’s 11 councils, the exact same total as in the 2019 election — showed most unionists would rather have no Stormont than accept “barriers to trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.”

    “The DUP have polled strongly despite everything that has been thrown at us,” said Donaldson, who now wants Westminster to pass unspecified legislation reinforcing Northern Ireland’s constitutional ties to Britain. “The U.K. government must move to ensure that our place in the United Kingdom is not only respected, but protected in law. The mandate we’ve been given reinforces that message.”

    His immediate predecessor as DUP leader, Edwin Poots, said while others expected the party to end its Stormont sabotage now that the election was out of the way, such a move remains unlikely unless the U.K. government finds extra support for Stormont’s ailing finances.

    “We’re ready to go back but we need to get more than what’s currently on the table,” Poots said. “If we went back into the assembly and executive in the morning, with this budget, the first task of every minister would be to implement cuts. It’s imperative that we get a package to ensure this will not be the case.”

    O’Neill, who spent much of the weekend joining in jubilant scenes with Sinn Féin activists, expressed exasperation that the DUP might string others along indefinitely for many months longer.

    “I am not accepting the autumn as a timeframe for a restored executive, as a lot of people are suggesting. There shouldn’t be any more delays. Let’s do it Monday morning,” she said.

    Joining O’Neill in Belfast was Sinn Féin’s overall leader, Mary Lou McDonald, a Dubliner whose eye remains on a bigger prize: leading a government in the neighboring Republic of Ireland for the first time.

    Sinn Féin, the only party contesting elections in both parts of Ireland, wants as part of its Irish unity strategy to gain the reins of power in both jurisdictions simultaneously. For decades a fanciful dream — and a unionist nightmare — this scenario has become a probability.

    The party’s growth to become the top party in Northern Ireland is matched south of the border by McDonald’s successful efforts to build Sinn Féin into the dominant opposition party in Dáil Éireann, Ireland’s parliament. It has topped every opinion poll for years and looks likely to win the next general election, which must happen by 2025 but could come sooner.

    As McDonald and O’Neill together ascended the steps of Belfast City Hall, Sinn Féin activists cheered their party’s rising expectations of gaining power in both the Dáil and Stormont, with McDonald as prime minister in Dublin and O’Neill as first minister in Belfast — if the DUP ever relents.

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    Shawn Pogatchnik

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  • China fears threaten to shatter G7 unity

    China fears threaten to shatter G7 unity

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    HIROSHIMA, Japan — As the leaders of the Group of Seven gather for their annual summit in Japan this week, three world-changing conflicts — past, present and potential — will converge. 

    The atomic bomb that ended World War II destroyed much of the city of Hiroshima, where the leaders will meet. Today, Russia’s war in Ukraine is costing thousands of lives and billions of dollars as it drags on. And then there’s the risk of another horrifying catastrophe to come, as China threatens Taiwan. 

    And it’s over China where the alliance may come unstuck. 

    For hawks like the U.S. and Japan, the summit beginning Friday offers a timely opportunity to make the case to Europe’s leaders directly that it’s time to get off the fence when it comes to confronting China. 

    “This G7 Summit will be an appropriate venue to also discuss security issues and our security cooperation not only in Europe, but also in the Indo-Pacific region,” Noriyuki Shikata, cabinet secretary at the Japanese prime minister’s office, told POLITICO. 

    The U.S. is betting on at least the appearance of common ground with allies about the People’s Republic of China. Ahead of the summit, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters: “You can expect to hear at the end of those discussions that all the G7 leaders are of a common mind about how to deal with the challenges that the PRC presents.”

    But — beyond the inevitably bland diplomatic lines of a summit communique — getting consensus on meaningful security measures for the Indo-Pacific region will be hard, even in the symbolic setting of Hiroshima. 

    East Asia is again descending into a state of growing security risks and military imbalance, this time due to China’s aggressive moves against Taiwan and the South China Sea. 

    “There’s a feeling that there’s a little bit of a gap, perhaps, between where the Europeans are on some China issues and where the U.S. is,” said Zack Cooper, former aide to the U.S. National Security Council and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. 

    Chief among the points of tension is how far to go in trying to stop a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which could trigger world war and wreck the global economy. The self-governing island, which Beijing claims as its own, provides most of the world’s advanced computer chips that are vital to the tech and defense industries. Not all European governments are convinced it’s something they need to prioritize. “It’s going to be a continuing challenge,” Cooper said. 

    Picking friends

    NATO is set to extend its footprint in Asia and set up a new liaison office in Tokyo to better coordinate with regional partners, such as Australia, South Korea and New Zealand. 

    However, French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly called on NATO to focus only on the Euro-Atlantic theater, saying Asia — China — is not covered geographically. He also triggered an outcry with recent comments to POLITICO, suggesting that Taiwan’s security was not Europe’s fight, and that the EU should not automatically follow America’s lead.  

    Justin Trudeau comes to the G7 following months of intelligence leaks that have painted his government as weak on foreign interference | Yuchi Yamazaki/AFP via Getty Images

    Macron’s stance sets France — which is the EU’s biggest military power — apart from the U.S. and Japan, and also from the U.K., where Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to announce a new security deal with Japan during his visit.

    “Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow,” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said last year, not long after Russia’s full-scale invasion began. Last week, Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi made an even more explicit warning in a speech made to his 27 EU counterparts in Sweden.

    “China is continuing and intensifying its unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in the East and South China Seas. China is also increasing its military activities around Taiwan,” Hayashi said. “In addition, China and Russia are strengthening their military collaboration, including joint flights of their bombers and joint naval exercises in the vicinity of Japan.”

    The Chinese-Russian ties will be part of the G7 leaders’ discussions, according to two officials involved in the process, who spoke on condition of anonymity because summit preparations are not public. While the Chinese authorities stop short of openly arming Russia in its war against Ukraine, a long-term strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow is unshakable for President Xi Jinping.

    G7 countries such as the U.S. and Japan are expected to raise the need to sanction countries that work around Western trade restrictions on Russia, according to the officials. Chinese companies found to be selling dual use goods to Russia would be a top focus. 

    Bully tactics

    China’s willingness to throw around its economic weight is one area where there’s likely to be more unity between G7 allies. 

    The need to fight back against economic coercion will take center stage at the summit. The EU, U.S., Canada and Japan are going to rally around calls to combat China’s use of its economic power to bully smaller economies that act against its political interests.

    “The sense of urgency and unity is a force factor in and of itself. For example, never before has the G7 addressed economic coercion,” Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, told POLITICO. 

    “When measured against the recent past, the G7 and EU are more strategically aligned in key economic and military matters,” added Emanuel, who served as chief of staff to former U.S. President Barack Obama.

    When it comes to the European view, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is clear that the bloc is “competing with China” and will need to up its game. “We will reduce strategic dependencies — we have learned the lessons of the last year,” she said in a press conference ahead of the trip.

    Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, comes to the G7 following months of intelligence leaks that have painted his government as weak on foreign interference, specifically from China. He’ll be carrying Canada’s message that it can be a safe, non-authoritarian alternative to Russia and China for supplying critical minerals and energy, including nuclear power. 

    Despite the toughening rhetoric on China, what still unites the G7 countries is an eagerness not to shut the door on talks with Beijing. 

    US President Joe Biden arrives to attend the G7 Summit in Hiroshima on May 18, 2023 | Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

    The Biden administration has for months been seeking to secure a visit to China for top Cabinet members, such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, held eight hours of talks with the Chinese Communist Party’s foreign policy chief, Wang Yi, this month. 

    Just before he left for Japan on Wednesday, U.S. President Joe Biden was asked whether his last-minute decision to truncate his trip abroad could be seen as “almost a win for China.” Instead of staying in the region for a summit of the Quad — Japan, India, the U.S. and Australia — Biden plans to return to Washington Sunday to deal with domestic issues. 

    The president downplayed the move as something China could use to its advantage, noting he will still meet with Quad nation leaders in Japan. “We get a chance to talk separately at the meeting,” he said

    Then, Biden was asked whether he has plans to speak with the Chinese president soon.

    “Whether it’s soon or not, we will be meeting,” he said, before leaving the room. 

    Cristina Gallardo in London and Zi-Ann Lum in Ottawa contributed reporting.

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    Eli Stokols, Phelim Kine and Stuart Lau

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  • Don’t isolate China, Brussels tells EU capitals

    Don’t isolate China, Brussels tells EU capitals

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    BRUSSELS — The EU’s high command is calling on European governments to keep talking to China amid deepening tensions between Washington and Beijing. 

    The European Union’s diplomatic arm wants member countries to “be prepared” for a potentially critical escalation in the crisis over Taiwan, warning that a military conflict would upend the vital supply of microchips to Europe. 

    But while there’s a need to reduce risks to Europe, it may not seal itself off from China, according to an internal document drafted by the European External Action Service and seen by POLITICO. 

    The document, which will be discussed by the bloc’s foreign ministers at a gathering in Stockholm on Friday, comes at a crucial time for the EU as it navigates an increasingly complex relationship with China. The U.S. is doubling down on its hawkish stance toward Beijing, while European leaders have not yet agreed on a unified approach. 

    The paper triggered immediate backlash from some of Europe’s more hawkish governments. “With all possible alarm lights flashing, we seem to prefer hitting a snooze button again,” one senior EU diplomat said on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive issues.

    In the document, prepared by the EU executive’s diplomatic officials, the bloc’s 27 member countries are urged to seize “a window of opportunity” to reduce the risk of China’s growing influence over economic and security matters. 

    A chance remains for Europe to speak directly to President Xi Jinping’s government, the paper says. “China and Europe cannot become more foreign to each other. Otherwise there is a risk that misunderstandings will grow and spread to other areas,” according to the draft. 

    “Systemic rivalry may feature in almost all areas of engagement. But this must not deter the EU from maintaining open channels of communication and seeking constructive cooperation with China […] Such cooperation can serve to break through a growing self-induced isolation of the Chinese leadership but most importantly should advance the EU’s core interests,” the paper continued.

    Friday’s debate at an informal meeting of foreign ministers in Sweden will fire the starting gun on a discussion over the EU’s relationship with China that is expected to dominate policymaking in the coming months, with a more comprehensive debate expected at an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels this June. 

    De-risking Beijing

    The paper calls on member countries to speed up plans for “de-risking” and reducing overdependence on China. 

    “De-risking can ensure predictability and transparency in our economic and trade relations, while promoting a secure, rules-based approach,” the paper says. 

    The call for de-risking comes as Beijing appears increasingly impatient with the narrative that it poses a threat to the West. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, speaking in Berlin this week, criticized European politicians for attempting to “get rid of China” in the name of de-risking. 

    The paper also tackles the politically sensitive issue of Taiwan, with ministers due to discuss this issue as well on Friday. French President Emmanuel Macron told POLITICO in an interview last month that Europe should avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the U.S. over the self-governing island, which Beijing claims as its own. 

    On Taiwan, the paper says: “The EU is […] adamant that any unilateral change of the status quo and use of force could have massive economic, political and security consequences, at global level, especially considering Taiwan’s primary role as supplier of the most advanced semiconductors.” 

    The document continues: “The EU needs to be prepared for scenarios in which tensions increase significantly. The risk of escalation in the Taiwan Strait clearly shows the necessity to work with partners to deter the erosion of the status quo in the interest of all.”

    Some 90 percent of advanced semiconductors imported into the EU come from Taiwan, according to the bloc’s own estimates.

    Taiwan’s semiconductor giant TSMC has been under pressure to relocate some of its manufacturing capabilities, but so far it has only moved in the direction of Taiwan’s two presumed security providers — the U.S. and Japan.  

    On Ukraine, the EU is not impressed with China’s latest diplomatic show, marked by President Xi Jinping’s belated first call with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    “China’s ’12-point position paper on the Ukraine Crisis’ […] confirms its firmly pro-Russian stance,” the document said. “Direct dialogue between China and Ukraine would be the best opportunity for China to contribute to a fair political settlement,” it continued.

    EU member countries should keep warning Beijing to refrain from supporting Russia, including by circumventing sanctions, the same paper added.

    The paper also casts gloom on the outlook for China’s domestic development, saying the Asian superpower “is likely to face unprecedented economic and political challenges internally” due to the deceleration of economic growth and demographic change. 

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    Stuart Lau , Jacopo Barigazzi and Suzanne Lynch

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  • Cold War with China would ‘betray’ Britain’s national interests, UK foreign secretary warns

    Cold War with China would ‘betray’ Britain’s national interests, UK foreign secretary warns

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    LONDON — Britain must engage with China rather than isolate Beijing in a “new Cold War,” the U.K. foreign secretary will say Tuesday in a warning shot to Tory China hawks.

    James Cleverly will set out the U.K.’s approach toward China in a long-awaited speech on Tuesday, weeks after the government’s updated Integrated Review of defense and foreign policy described relations with the emerging superpower as an “epoch-defining and systemic challenge.”

    Cleverly is expected to set out a three-pronged approach for relations with Beijing — limiting Chinese involvement in sectors deemed critical for national security; strengthening ties with Indo-Pacific allies; and — most controversially — engaging with China directly to promote stable relations.

    And in a message to the increasingly outspoken China hawks within his Conservative Party, the foreign secretary will warn against an era of open confrontation with Beijing that might harm the U.K.’s economic interests and limit the West’s ability to engage on shared challenges, including climate change and nuclear proliferation.

    “It would be clear and easy — perhaps even satisfying — for me to declare a new Cold War and say that our goal is to isolate China,” Cleverly is expected to say, according to words shared by his department ahead of the speech.

    “Clear, easy, satisfying — and wrong. Because it would be a betrayal of our national interest and a wilful misunderstanding of the modern world.”

    Under pressure from Tory MPs, Rishi Sunak has toughened his approach toward China since becoming prime minister, ordering the sale last November of a Chinese-owned semiconductor plant in Wales under new national security legislation.

    Cleverly has focused on building alliances with countries close to China, returning at the weekend from a tour of the Pacific — the first visit to some areas by a British foreign secretary since the 1970s. Britain recently signed deals to join a Pacific-focused defense pact with Australia and the U.S., and a large free-trade agreement with 11 Pacific rim nations including Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore.

    But Britain is yet to join the group of large European countries sending their leaders on official visits to Beijing. French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen both visited China earlier this month.

    Cleverly himself is expected to visit China later in 2023, but Downing Street has not floated any travel plans for the prime minister.

    Cleverly’s remarks come as some British firms cut their ties with China and move their activity to other countries in preparation for a worsening in relations. The U.K. says it wants to continue helping British companies do business with China — but without entering strategic dependencies.

    In his speech to the Lord Mayor’s Easter Banquet, Cleverly will call on China to be more open about the intent behind its vast military expansion in order to prevent a “tragic miscalculation,” and say the U.K. and its allies “are prepared to be open about our presence in the Indo-Pacific.”

    He will also send a strongly worded message on the need for the Chinese government to respect human rights within its borders, describing China’s repression of the Uyghur minority in Xinjiang as an attempt to build “a 21st century version of the gulag archipelago.”

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    Cristina Gallardo

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  • Targeted killings spark debate within Russian opposition

    Targeted killings spark debate within Russian opposition

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    Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe. 

    KYIV — “She’ll say whatever the FSB [Federal Security Service] wants her to say,” said Ilya Ponomarev, a former Russian lawmaker-turned-dissident who now lives in Kyiv.

    Discussing who was behind the bombing of a St. Petersburg café earlier this month — which left 40 injured and warmongering military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky dead — the “she” in question was 26-year-old Darya Trepova who, until recently, was an assistant at a vintage clothing store and a feminist activist, and has been accused of being the bomber.

    And the St. Petersburg bombing — as well as another carried out against commentator Darya Dugina — has now sharpened a debate within the deeply fractured, often argumentative and diverse Russian opposition, regarding the most effective tactics to oppose President Vladimir Putin and collapse his regime — raising the question of whether violence should play a role, and if so, when and how?

    Russian authorities arrested Trepova within hours of the blast, and in an interrogation video they released, she can be seen admitting to taking a plaster figurine packed with explosives into a café that is likely owned by the paramilitary Wagner group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin. On CCTV footage, she can be seen leaving the wrecked café, apparently as shocked and dazed as others caught in the blast.

    But Ponomarev says she wasn’t the perpetrator, instead insisting that it was the National Republican Army (NRA) — a shadowy group that also claimed responsibility for the August car bombing that killed Dugina, daughter of ultranationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin. Yet, many security experts are skeptical of the NRA’s claims, as the group has offered no concrete evidence to the outside world.

    Still, Ponomarev insists they shouldn’t be doubtful and says the group does indeed exist.

    “I do understand why people are skeptical. The NRA must be cautious, and for them, the result is more important than PR about who they are. That’s why they asked me to help them with getting the word out, and whatever evidence they show me cannot be disclosed because that would jeopardize their security.”

    But who, exactly, are they? According to Ponomarev, the group is comprised of 24 “young radical activists, who I would say are a bit more inclined to the left, but there are different views inside the group, judging from what I have heard during our discussions” — which have only been conducted remotely.

    When asked if any of them had serious military training, he said he didn’t think so. “What they pulled off in St. Petersburg wouldn’t require any, and what was done with Dugin’s daughter? We don’t know the technical details but, in general, I can see how that could have been done by a person without any specific training.”

    Yet, security experts say they aren’t convinced that either of the apparently remotely triggered bombings could have been accomplished by individuals without some expertise in building bombs and triggering them remotely — especially when it comes to the attack on Dugina, who was killed at the wheel of her car.

    Regardless, the bombings are intensifying discussions within the country’s fragmented opposition.

    On the one hand, key liberal figures, including Alexei Navalny, Vladimir Kara-Murza — who was found guilty of treason just last week and handed a 25-year jail term — Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Garry Kasparov and Dmitry Gudkov, are all critical of violence. Although they don’t oppose acts of sabotage.

    Alexei Navalny is among those who are critical of violence, though aren’t opposed to sabotage | Kiril Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty images

    “The Russian opposition needs to agree on nonaggression because conflicts and scandals in its ranks weaken us all,” Gudkov, a former lawmaker, said. “We need to stop calling each other ‘agents of the Kremlin’ and find the points according to which we can work together toward the common goal of the collapse of the Kremlin regime,” he added in recent public comments.

    Gudkov, along with his father Gennady — a former KGB officer — and Ponomarev became leading names in the 2012 protests opposing Putin’s reelection, and they joined forces to mount an act of parliamentary defiance that same year, filibustering a bill allowing large fines for anti-government protesters.

    On the issue of mounting violent attacks and targeting civilians, however, they aren’t on the same page. “There are many people inside the Russian liberal opposition who are against violent methods, and I don’t see much of a reason to debate with them,” Ponomarev told POLITICO. There are times when nonviolent methods can work — but not now, he argues.

    Meanwhile, inside Russia, Vesna — the youth democratic movement founded in 2013 by former members of the country’s liberal Yabloko party — led many of the initial anti-war street protests observing the principle of nonviolence, though that didn’t prevent the Kremlin from adding it to its list of proscribed “terrorist” and extremist organizations. Nonviolence is likewise observed by the Feminist Anti-War Resistance (FAR), which was launched by activists Daria Serenko and Ella Rossman hours after Russia invaded Ukraine.

    “We are the resistance to the war, to patriarchy, to authoritarianism and militarism. We are the future and we will win,” reads FAR’s manifesto. The organization has used an array of creative micro-methods to try and get its anti-Putin message across, including writing anti-war slogans on banknotes, installing anti-war art in public spaces, and handing out bouquets of flowers on the streets.

    Interestingly, scrawling on bank notes is reminiscent of Otto and Elise Hampel in Nazi Germany during the 1940s — a working-class German couple who handwrote over 287 postcards, dropping them in mailboxes and leaving them in stairwells, urging people to overthrow the Nazis. It took the Gestapo two years to identify them, and they were guillotined in April 1943.

    But such methods don’t satisfy Ponomarev, the lone lawmaker to vote against Putin’s annexation of Crimea in the Russian Duma in 2014. He says he’s in touch with other partisan groups inside Russia, and at a conference of exiled opposition figures sponsored by the Free Russia Forum in Vilnius last year, he called on participants to support direct action within Russia. However, he was largely met with indifference and has subsequently been blackballed by the liberal opposition due to his calls for armed resistance.

    Meanwhile, opposition journalist Roman Popkov — who was jailed for two years for taking part in anti-Putin protests and is now in exile — is even more dismissive of nonviolence, saying he talks with direct-action groups inside Russia like Stop the Wagons, who claim to have sabotaged and derailed more than 80 freight trains.

    On Telegram, Popkov mocked liberal opposition figures for their caution and doubts about the St. Petersburg bombing. “The Russian liberal establishment is groaning in fear of a possible ‘toughening of state terror’ after the destruction of the war criminal Tatarsky,” he wrote. Adding, “It is difficult to understand what other toughening of state terror you are afraid of.”

    According to Popkov, who is also a member of the Congress of People’s Deputies — a group of exiled former Russian lawmakers — the opposition doesn’t have a plan because it is too fragmented, but “there is the need for an armed uprising.”

    However, several of Putin’s liberal opponents, including Khodorkovsky, approach the issue from a more cautious angle, saying that people should prepare for armed resistance but that the time is nowhere near right for launching it — the result would almost certainly be ineffective and end up in a bloodbath.

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    Jamie Dettmer

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  • Poland’s Morawiecki plays Europe’s anti-Macron in Washington

    Poland’s Morawiecki plays Europe’s anti-Macron in Washington

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    There’s an Emmanuel Macron-shaped shadow hovering over this week’s U.S. visit by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

    In contrast to the French president — who in an interview with POLITICO tried to put some distance between the U.S. and Europe in any future confrontation with China over Taiwan and called for strengthening the Continent’s “strategic autonomy” — the Polish leader is underlining the critical importance of the alliance between America and Europe, not least because his country is one of Kyiv’s strongest allies in the war with Russia.

    “Instead of building strategic autonomy from the United States, I propose a strategic partnership with the United States,” he said before flying to Washington.

    In the U.S. capital, Morawiecki continued with his under-the-table kicks at the French president.

    “I see no alternative, and we are absolutely on the same wavelength here, to building an even closer alliance with the Americans. If countries to the west of Poland understand this less, it is probably because of historical circumstances,” he said on Tuesday in Washington.

    Unlike France, which has spent decades bristling at Europe’s reliance on the U.S. for its security, Poland is one of the Continent’s keenest American allies. Warsaw has pushed hard for years for U.S. troops to be stationed on its territory, and many of its recent arms contracts have gone to American companies. It signed a $1.4 billion deal earlier this year to buy a second batch of Abrams tanks, and has also agreed to spend $4.6 billion on advanced F-35 fighter jets.

    “I am glad that this proposal for an even deeper strategic partnership is something that finds such fertile ground here in the United States, because we know that there are various concepts formulated by others in Europe, concepts that create more threats, more question marks, more unknowns,” Morawiecki said. “Poland is trying to maintain the most commonsense policy based on a close alliance with the United States within the framework of the European Union, and this is the best path for Poland.”

    Fast friends

    Poland has become one of Ukraine’s most important allies, and access to its roads, railways and airports is crucial in funneling weapons, ammunition and other aid to Ukraine.

    That’s helped shift perceptions of Poland — seen before the war as an increasingly marginal member of the Western club thanks to its issues with violating the rule of law, into a key country of the NATO alliance.

    Warsaw also sees the Russian attack on Ukraine as justifying its long-held suspicion of its historical foe, and it hasn’t been shy in pointing the finger at Paris and Berlin for being wrong about the threat posed by the Kremlin.

    “Old Europe believed in an agreement with Russia, and old Europe failed,” Morawiecki said in a joint news conference with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. “But there is a new Europe — Europe that remembers what Russian communism was. And Poland is the leader of this new Europe.”

    That’s why Macron’s comments have been seized on by Warsaw.

    According to Poland’s PM Mateusz Morawiecki, Emmanuel Macron’s talks of distancing the EU from America “threatens to break up” the block | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

    “I absolutely don’t agree with President Macron. We believe that more America is needed in Europe … We want more cooperation with the U.S. on a partnership basis,” Marcin Przydacz, a foreign policy adviser to Polish President Andrzej Duda, told Poland’s Radio Zet, adding that the strategic autonomy idea pushed by Macron “has the goal of cutting links between Europe and the United States.”

    While Poland is keen on European countries hitting NATO’s goal of spending at least 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense — a target that only seven alliance members, including Poland, but not France and Germany, are meeting — and has no problem with them building up military industries, it doesn’t want to weaken ties with the U.S., said Sławomir Dębski, head of the state-financed Polish Institute of International Affairs.

    He warned that Macron’s talks of distancing Europe from America in the event of a conflict with China “threatens to break up the EU, which is against the interests not only of Poland, but also of most European countries.”

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    Jan Cienski

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  • 2023’s most important election: Turkey

    2023’s most important election: Turkey

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    For Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, next month’s election is of massive historical significance.

    It falls 100 years after the foundation of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s secular republic and, if Erdoğan wins, he will be empowered to put even more of his stamp on the trajectory of a geostrategic heavyweight of 85 million people. The fear in the West is that he will see this as his moment to push toward an increasingly religiously conservative model, characterized by regional confrontationalism, with greater political powers centered around himself.

    The election will weigh heavily on security in Europe and the Middle East. Who is elected stands to define: Turkey’s role in the NATO alliance; its relationship with the U.S., the EU and Russia; migration policy; Ankara’s role in the war in Ukraine; and how it handles tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

    The May 14 vote is expected to be the most hotly contested race in Erdoğan’s 20-year rule — as the country grapples with years of economic mismanagement and the fallout from a devastating earthquake.

    He will face an opposition aligned behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi,” who is promising big changes. Polls suggest Kılıçdaroğlu has eked out a lead, but Erdoğan is a hardened election campaigner, with the full might of the state and its institutions at his back.

    “There will be a change from an authoritarian single-man rule, towards a kind of a teamwork, which is a much more democratic process,” Ünal Çeviköz, chief foreign policy adviser to Kılıçdaroğlu told POLITICO. “Kılıçdaroğlu will be the maestro of that team.”

    Here are the key foreign policy topics in play in the vote:

    EU and Turkish accession talks

    Turkey’s opposition is confident it can unfreeze European Union accession talks — at a standstill since 2018 over the country’s democratic backsliding — by introducing liberalizing reforms in terms of rule of law, media freedoms and depoliticization of the judiciary.

    The opposition camp also promises to implement European Court of Human Rights decisions calling for the release of two of Erdoğan’s best-known jailed opponents: the co-leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party Selahattin Demirtaş and human rights defender Osman Kavala.

    “This will simply give the message to all our allies, and all the European countries, that Turkey is back on track to democracy,” Çeviköz said.

    Even under a new administration, however, the task of reopening the talks on Turkey’s EU accession is tricky.

    Turkey’s opposition is aligned behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi” | Burak Kara/Getty Images

    Anti-Western feeling in Turkey is very strong across the political spectrum, argued Wolfango Piccoli, co-founder of risk analysis company Teneo.

    “Foreign policy will depend on the coherence of the coalition,” he said. “This is a coalition of parties who have nothing in common apart from the desire to get rid of Erdoğan. They’ve got a very different agenda, and this will have an impact in foreign policy.”

    “The relationship is largely comatose, and has been for some time, so, they will keep it on life support,” he said, adding that any new government would have so many internal problems to deal with that its primary focus would be domestic.

    Europe also seems unprepared to handle a new Turkey, with a group of countries — most prominently France and Austria — being particularly opposed to the idea of rekindling ties.

    “They are used to the idea of a non-aligned Turkey, that has departed from EU norms and values and is doing its own course,” said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş a visiting fellow at Brookings. “If the opposition forms a government, it will seek a European identity and we don’t know Europe’s answer to that; whether it could be accession or a new security framework that includes Turkey.”

    “Obviously the erosion of trust has been mutual,” said former Turkish diplomat Sinan Ülgen, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, arguing that despite reticence about Turkish accession, there are other areas where a complementary and mutually beneficiary framework could be built, like the customs union, visa liberalization, cooperation on climate, security and defense, and the migration agreement.

    The opposition will indeed seek to revisit the 2016 agreement with the EU on migration, Çeviköz said.

    “Our migration policy has to be coordinated with the EU,” he said. “Many countries in Europe see Turkey as a kind of a pool, where migrants coming from the east can be contained and this is something that Turkey, of course cannot accept,” he said but added. “This doesn’t mean that Turkey should open its borders and make the migrants flow into Europe. But we need to coordinate and develop a common migration policy.”

    NATO and the US

    After initially imposing a veto, Turkey finally gave the green light to Finland’s NATO membership on March 30.

    But the opposition is also pledging to go further and end the Turkish veto on Sweden, saying that this would be possible by the alliance’s annual gathering on July 11. “If you carry your bilateral problems into a multilateral organization, such as NATO, then you are creating a kind of a polarization with all the other members of NATO with your country,” Çeviköz said.

    A protester pushes a cart with a RRecep Tayyip Erdoğan doll during an anti-NATO and anti-Turkey demonstration in Sweden | Jonas Gratzer/Getty Images

    A reelected Erdoğan could also feel sufficiently empowered to let Sweden in, many insiders argue. NATO allies did, after all, play a significant role in earthquake aid. Turkish presidential spokesperson İbrahim Kalın says that the door is not closed to Sweden, but insists the onus is on Stockholm to determine how things proceed.

    Turkey’s military relationship with the U.S. soured sharply in 2019 when Ankara purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile system, a move the U.S. said would put NATO aircraft flying over Turkey at risk. In response, the U.S. kicked Ankara out of the F-35 jet fighter program and slapped sanctions on the Turkish defense industry.

    A meeting in late March between Kılıçdaroğlu and the U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake infuriated Erdoğan, who saw it as an intervention in the elections and pledged to “close the door” to the U.S. envoy. “We need to teach the United States a lesson in this elections,” the irate president told voters.

    In its policy platform, the opposition makes a clear reference to its desire to return to the F-35 program.

    Russia and the war in Ukraine

    After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey presented itself as a middleman. It continues to supply weapons — most significantly Bayraktar drones — to Ukraine, while refusing to sanction Russia. It has also brokered a U.N. deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea.

    Highlighting his strategic high-wire act on Russia, after green-lighting Finland’s NATO accession and hinting Sweden could also follow, Erdoğan is now suggesting that Turkey could be the first NATO member to host Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    “Maybe there is a possibility” that Putin may travel to Turkey on April 27 for the inauguration of the country’s first nuclear power reactor built by Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom, he said.

    Çeviköz said that under Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership, Turkey would be willing to continue to act as a mediator and extend the grain deal, but would place more stress on Ankara’s status as a NATO member.

    “We will simply emphasize the fact that Turkey is a member of NATO, and in our discussions with Russia, we will certainly look for a relationship among equals, but we will also remind Russia that Turkey is a member of NATO,” he said.

    Turkey’s relationship with Russia has become very much driven by the relationship between Putin and Erdoğan and this needs to change, Ülgen argued.

    Turkey brokered a U.N. deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea | Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images

     “No other Turkish leader would have the same type of relationship with Putin, it would be more distant,” he said. “It does not mean that Turkey would align itself with the sanctions; it would not. But nonetheless, the relationship would be more transparent.”

    Syria and migration

    The role of Turkey in Syria is highly dependent on how it can address the issue of Syrians living in Turkey, the opposition says.

    Turkey hosts some 4 million Syrians and many Turks, battling a major cost-of-living crisis, are becoming increasingly hostile. Kılıçdaroğlu has pledged to create opportunities and the conditions for the voluntary return of Syrians.

    “Our approach would be to rehabilitate the Syrian economy and to create the conditions for voluntary returns,” Çeviköz said, adding that this would require an international burden-sharing, but also establishing dialogue with Damascus.

    Erdoğan is also trying to establish a rapprochement with Syria but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad says he will only meet the Turkish president when Ankara is ready to completely withdraw its military from northern Syria.

    “A new Turkish government will be more eager to essentially shake hands with Assad,” said Ülgen. “But this will remain a thorny issue because there will be conditions attached on the side of Syria to this normalization.”

    However, Piccoli from Teneo said voluntary returns of Syrians was “wishful thinking.”

    “These are Syrians who have been living in Turkey for more than 10 years, their children have been going to school in Turkey from day one. So, the pledges of sending them back voluntarily, it is very questionable to what extent they can be implemented.”

    Greece and the East Med

    Turkey has stepped up its aggressive rhetoric against Greece in recent months, with the Erdoğan even warning that a missile could strike Athens.

    But the prompt reaction by the Greek government and the Greek community to the recent devastating earthquakes in Turkey and a visit by the Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias created a new backdrop for bilateral relations.

    A Turkish drill ship before it leaves for gas exploration | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images

    Dendias, along with his Turkish counterpart Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, announced that Turkey would vote for Greece in its campaign for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council for 2025-26 and that Greece would support the Turkish candidacy for the General Secretariat of the International Maritime Organization.

    In another sign of a thaw, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos and Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi visited Turkey this month, with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar saying he hoped that the Mediterranean and Aegean would be a “sea of friendship” between the two countries. Akar said he expected a moratorium with Greece in military and airforce exercises in the Aegean Sea between June 15 and September 15.

    “Both countries are going to have elections, and probably they will have the elections on the same day. So, this will open a new horizon in front of both countries,” Çeviköz said.

    “The rapprochement between Turkey and Greece in their bilateral problems [in the Aegean], will facilitate the coordination in addressing the other problems in the eastern Mediterranean, which is a more multilateral format,” he said. Disputes over maritime borders and energy exploration, for example, are common.

    As far as Cyprus is concerned, Çeviköz said that it is important for Athens and Ankara not to intervene into the domestic politics of Cyprus and the “two peoples on the island should be given an opportunity to look at their problems bilaterally.”

    However, analysts argue that Greece, Cyprus and the EastMed are fundamental for Turkey’s foreign policy and not much will change with another government. The difference will be more one of style.

    “The approach to manage those differences will change very much. So, we will not hear aggressive rhetoric like: ‘We will come over one night,’” said Ülgen. “We’ll go back to a more mature, more diplomatic style of managing differences and disputes.”

    “The NATO framework will be important, and the U.S. would have to do more in terms of re-establishing the sense of balance in the Aegean,” said Aydıntaşbaş. But, she argued, “you just cannot normalize your relations with Europe or the U.S., unless you’re willing to take that step with Greece.”

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    Nektaria Stamouli

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  • Turkey’s Erdoğan urges end of Ukraine war in call with Putin

    Turkey’s Erdoğan urges end of Ukraine war in call with Putin

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    Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Saturday called for the “immediate cessation” of the war in Ukraine during a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    Erdoğan also “thanked President Putin for his positive stance regarding the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative” and added that the two countries “could take further steps” when it comes to economic cooperation, the Turkish presidency’s communications directorate said in a statement on Saturday.

    The Black Sea grain deal, which allowed the export of foodstuffs from Ukraine to resume after Moscow’s unlawful invasion of the country blocked several ports, was extended last weekend. The grain agreement was originally signed last summer by Kyiv and Moscow under the auspices of the United Nations.

    The Kremlin said in a statement following the Putin-Erdoğan phone call that the two leaders also discussed the situation in Syria.

    They emphasized “the need to continue the process of normalizing relations between Turkey and Syria” and “Russia’s constructive role as a mediator,” according to the statement.

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    Louise Guillot

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  • China’s Xi to visit Putin in Russia next week

    China’s Xi to visit Putin in Russia next week

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    Chinese President Xi Jinping will pay a three-day visit to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin next week, Beijing and Moscow announced Friday, with “strategic cooperation” on the agenda.

    “On March 20-22, 2023, at the invitation of Vladimir Putin, president of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to Russia,” the Kremlin’s press service said in a statement.

    “A number of important bilateral documents will be signed,” the statement reads.

    Neither country confirmed previous reports from the Wall Street Journal that Xi would use the opportunity to call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — in what would be the first communication between the two leaders since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last February.

    While China was initially committed to a “no-limit partnership” passed with Moscow days before the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Beijing has since sought to position itself as a peace broker, introducing a 12-point plan for peace.

    Yet, Beijing’s attempts have drawn criticism from Western leaders. China, they said, is anything but neutral in the war, and thus not a good fit to be playing the arbiter.

    China has been accused by the U.S. of delivering non-lethal “support” to Russia — and, according to exclusive customs data obtained by POLITICO, Chinese companies shipped more than 1,000 assault rifles, drone parts and body armor to Russian entities between June and December of last year.

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    Nicolas Camut

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