ReportWire

Tag: Consumer Goods

  • Danone 3Q Sales EUR6.91B

    Danone 3Q Sales EUR6.91B

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    By Giulia Petroni

    Danone raised its full-year sales growth guidance after recording a sequential improvement in volume/mix in sales in the third quarter.

    The French producer of yoghurts, bottled water and infant-nutrition products said Thursday that it now expects like-for-like sales growth between 6% and 7% in 2023 from previous expectations of between 4% and 6%.

    It also said it expects to return to a positive volume/mix territory before the end of the year, and confirmed it sees a moderate improvement in the recurring operating margin.

    In the third quarter, Danone posted sales of 6.91 billion euros ($7.30 billion), down from EUR7.33 billion in the year earlier, partly due to the depreciation of the majority of currencies against the euro. On a like-for-like basis, sales grew 6.2%, with volume/mix at minus 0.3% from minus 2.3% in the second quarter.

    Analysts had forecast sales of EUR6.90 billion and like-for-like growth of 4.7%, according to a company-compiled consensus.

    “This quarter is the seventh consecutive quarter of delivery,” said Chief Executive Antoine de Saint-Affrique. “We continue to view our future with confidence, despite a challenging environment.”

    Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com

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  • Junk food is as addictive as alcohol and cigarettes: report

    Junk food is as addictive as alcohol and cigarettes: report

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    Apparently, you really can become a junk-food junkie.

    That’s what a new study published by the British Medical Journal says, noting that ultra-processed foods — meaning food that contain “ingredients not available in home kitchens” and that typically have high levels of refined carbohydrates or added fats — are plenty addictive. And they’re on par with alcohol and tobacco, the study notes.

    Specifically, the study says that food addiction — again, closely connected with the consumption of ultra-processed foods — is prevalent in 14% of the adult population. That matches the percentage for alcohol addiction and is just slightly below the percentage for tobacco addiction (18%).  

    The study warns that junk foods like sweets and snacks deliver those carbs and fats to the gut at a speedy rate, contributing to their addictive potential. It’s not unlike how cigarettes “rapidly deliver nicotine to the brain,” the study warns.

    Additives also play a role in making these junk foods so appealing, the study says. That is, they increase sweet and savory tastes. Not surprisingly, the study notes that additives “that aim to improve [flavor] and mouthfeel are also common in cigarettes, including sugar, cocoa, menthol, and alkaline salt.”

    If anything, the study points to issues with food addiction that don’t exist with other addictions since food is a critical part of our lives. “Addictive drugs are not necessary for survival; eating is,” the study says.

    The study says understanding that ultra-processed foods are indeed addictive could “lead to novel approaches” in addressing the issue. It points to several policies that are already being taken across the world, such as levying taxes on sweetened beverages or posting nutritional information on the front of packages.

    MarketWatch reached out to SNAC, a trade group representing snack-food manufacturers, about the study, but didn’t receive an immediate response.

    Americans’ desire to snack doesn’t appear to be abating. In its most recent annual report, SNAC says the annual total sales for salty snacks grew by 15.6% in 2022 to $28.4 billion. Potato chips alone saw 14.5% growth to $7.8 billion in sales.

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  • Nestle 9-Mos Sales CHF68.83B

    Nestle 9-Mos Sales CHF68.83B

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    By Giulia Petroni

    Nestle reported a 7.8% organic sales growth in the first nine months of the year driven by price increases amid high inflation levels, and backed its full-year outlook.

    The Swiss food and beverage giant said sales stood at 68.83 billion Swiss francs ($76.57 billion) in the period from CHF69.13 billion a year earlier, driven by pricing at 8.4%. Real internal growth was minus 0.6%, but the company said the recovery of volume and mix is underway.

    A company-compiled consensus estimate had forecast organic sales growth of 8.1%.

    Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com

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  • AI stole the show this year, but earnings will drag Wall Street back to reality

    AI stole the show this year, but earnings will drag Wall Street back to reality

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    Nearly a year ago, OpenAI released ChatGPT 3 into the world, and investors got visions of dollar signs in their heads as they imagined the ways that artificial intelligence could make big money for businesses.

    Wall Street’s now coming to terms with the fact that those sorts of paydays are going to take time. As investors have already seen from the past two quarters of earnings, AI has only really delivered financial benefits for a select few hardware companies so far — while spurring new costs for many others.

    “The AI boom has already bifurcated into the contenders and pretenders,” said Daniel Newman, chief executive and principal analyst of Futurum Research. And while Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Intel Corp. and Arm Holdings PLC
    ARM,
    +0.38%

    have stirred up interest, Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    -4.68%

    has established itself as far and away the greatest “contender,” with AI driving strong demand for its chips tuned for AI training.

    Nvidia last quarter reported record earnings, including a 141% jump in revenue for its graphics chips used in AI infrastructure building up data centers. Nvidia, which reports near the end of earnings season on Nov. 21, posted record revenue of $13.5 billion last quarter and is expected to easily top that with $16 billion in the most recent quarter, a surge of 170% versus a year ago. Those estimates include $12.3 billion of revenue coming from data-center sales.

    Other chip companies could post gains from AI as well, but to far lesser extents. Candidates include Broadcom Corp.
    AVGO,
    -2.01%

    and system maker Super Micro Computer Inc.
    SMCI,
    +2.35%
    ,
    as well as Marvell Technology Inc.
    MRVL,
    -0.91%
    ,
    which last quarter told analysts that it expects to end the year at a revenue run rate of about $800 million this year from cloud/data-center chips related to AI.

    “This is well above what we had outlined last quarter. Put this in perspective: This would put us at the run rate we had previously communicated for all of next year,” Marvel Chief Executive Matthew Murphy told analysts.

    Super Micro is also riding the AI wave with its customized data-center servers that are designed to consume less power. But revenue in the September quarter is forecast to rise just 15% from a year ago and drop on a sequential basis, as supply constraints from Nvidia likely hampered Super Micro’s ability to meet all its demand.

    Much as Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    -1.24%

    and Intel Corp.
    INTC,
    -1.37%

    want to be in the AI conversations with the graphics chips they hope will be used for AI data-center applications, they won’t see much of an impact yet from AI revenue. Plus, those companies are experiencing a slowdown in PC sales that may overshadow any small benefit from AI chips.

    The AI boom in chips is clearly not providing enough of a boost to lift finances for the overall semiconductor sector, which is forecast to see earnings fall 3.3% in the third quarter and post a revenue decline of 0.6%, according to FactSet. The industry is being dragged down in part by Micron Technology Inc.
    MU,
    -0.12%
    ,
    which reported a 40% drop in revenue and a whopping fiscal fourth-quarter loss in late September for the quarter ended Aug. 31, which is included in FactSet’s third-quarter data. Even so, the company called a bottom to the memory-chip downturn.

    Read also: Micron’s AI focused chip won’t help financial results anytime soon.

    “Most of the consumer-based tech is still struggling, [including] PCs, laptops and to a certain extent smartphones,” said Daniel Morgan, senior portfolio manager at Synovus Trust Co. Wall Street has tempered expectations related to the impact of Apple Inc.’s
    AAPL,
    -0.88%

    iPhone 15 launch on the quarter, as estimates call for an overall 1% drop in September-quarter revenue. Last quarter, Apple executives forecast that both Mac and iPad sales would be down by double-digits and that revenue performance would be similar to its June quarter, when revenue fell 1.3%

    In addition, when asked about AI, Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company views AI and machine learning “as core fundamental technologies that are integral to virtually every product that we build.” Those comments, though, can also apply to the bulk of tech companies, where AI is built into software as another layer to improve a product. Internet companies such as Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +0.89%

    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    +0.36%

    GOOGL,
    +0.45%

    incorporate AI into their software and algorithms but don’t treat it as a specific, revenue-generating product.

    Other software companies are building AI into their products as separate features or add-ons, but they are still in the early stages of seeing whether or not customers will pay more for them. Take Microsoft Corp.,
    MSFT,
    -0.17%

    which has showed off Copilot, an extra AI feature for customers of Microsoft 365.

    “[Microsoft] can distinguish itself by providing more details around its AI revenue
    ramp since we don’t expect much information from Google, who really doesn’t seem
    to have the monetization plan for Bard and AI-assisted search (SGE) ready to
    articulate yet,” Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes said in a note to clients this week. He also noted that the cost of offering AI products to consumers is steep, and requires lots of investment.

    “There are sophisticated issues to contend with for Microsoft, including balancing the potential for higher revenue from Copilots with the high costs per query and much-needed investment,” Reitzes said. “The balance of AI adoption vs. cost was implied when Microsoft guided to flat operating margins year over year for fiscal 2024.”

    Earlier this year, the Information reported that OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT and recipient of a hefty investment from Microsoft, has costs of up to $700,000 a day, because the massive amounts of computing power needed to run queries. In February, OpenAI launched ChatGPT Plus, for $20 a month, a service that will give subscribers access to its AI during peak times and faster response times.

    Another example is Adobe Inc.
    ADBE,
    +1.70%
    ,
    which has a few AI offerings, including a subscription service called Generative Credits, tokens that let customers turn text-based prompts into images. Another is Firefly, a generative AI service for images, and an AI option in Photoshop, currently called Photoshop Beta AI, to help users fill in images and other collaborative tools. Adobe did not provide any forecasts on potential revenue generation during its analyst day earlier this month.

    Toni Sacconaghi, a Bernstein Research analyst, said AI could drive a massive increase in enterprise productivity, and companies could dramatically increase IT spending on servers in order to invest in productivity-enhancing AI. “However, we note that enterprise adoption appears to be in early stages,” he said in a recent note to clients, adding that it was feasible that spending on AI infrastructure could take money away from other IT projects in process. “We do worry that projected AI infrastructure build out may be occurring too quickly, necessitating a digestion period, which could result in a commensurate stock pullback in AI-related names.”

    Overall, the information-technology sector itself is expected to see anemic revenue growth this quarter. The consensus on FactSet forecasts a meager 1.35% revenue uptick in the third quarter, with earnings growth of 4.65%. FactSet’s estimates for IT companies exclude internet companies like Meta and Alphabet, which are under the category of communications/interactive media services. That sector is expected to see sales growth of 12%, and earnings growth of 51%, thanks to a 116% boost in Meta’s net income, after it hit a low point in the year-ago quarter.

    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -0.81%
    ,
    in the category of consumer discretionary/broadline retail, is forecast to see earnings growth of 109%, and revenue growth of 11%. Amazon’s cloud services business, AWS, is expected to also see a potential uplift from customers spending money on AI projects, according to a TD Cowen & Co. survey, in which 41% of respondents said they were “highly considering” allocating a budget for generative AI.

    “This trend could bode well for Amazon’s AWS,” TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge said in a recent report, adding that he expects AWS revenue growth to reaccelerate in the second half of this year and in 2024, boosted by the move of additional workloads to the cloud, possibly including generative AI.

    As companies build up their infrastructure, or their spending on cloud computing to add or improve AI capabilities, they are seeing higher costs, which is affecting margins — especially if revenue has slowed down, as it has in some sectors. Across both the broader S&P 500
    SPX,
    and the IT sector, earnings are lower than a year ago.

    As Newman of Futurum pointed out, “AI stole the budget this year.” And that is a mixed bag for tech.

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  • Microsoft’s Activision Deal Gets Green Light From UK Regulator

    Microsoft’s Activision Deal Gets Green Light From UK Regulator

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    By Kim Mackrael

    Microsoft’s acquisition of videogame company Activision Blizzard won approval from U.K. competition authorities, clearing a path for the companies to close the $75 billion deal after a lengthy struggle with regulators.

    The U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority said Friday that the proposed deal no longer poses a major threat to competition in cloud gaming. The shift comes after Microsoft offered to restructure the deal by forfeiting cloud-streaming rights for “Call of Duty” and other popular Activision franchises in much of the world.

    -Sarah E. Needleman contributed to this article

    Write to Kim Mackrael at Kim.mackrael@wsj.com

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  • Dividend stocks are dirt cheap. It may be time to back up the truck.

    Dividend stocks are dirt cheap. It may be time to back up the truck.

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    The stock market always overreacts, and this year it seems as if investors believe dividend stocks have become toxic. But a look at yields on quality dividend stocks relative to the market underlines what may be an excellent opportunity for long-term investors to pursue growth with an income stream that builds up over the years.

    The current environment, in which you can get a yield of more than 5% yield on your cash at a bank or lock in a yield of 4.57% on a10-year U.S. Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    or close to 5% on a 20-year Treasury bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD20Y
    seems to have made some investors forget two things: A stock’s dividend payout can rise over the long term, and so can it is price.

    It is never fun to see your portfolio underperform during a broad market swing. And people have a tendency to prefer jumping on a trend hoping to keep riding it, rather than taking advantage of opportunities brought about by price declines. We may be at such a moment for quality dividend stocks, based on their yields relative to that of the benchmark S&P 500
    SPX.

    Drew Justman of Madison Funds explained during an interview with MarketWatch how he and John Brown, who co-manage the Madison Dividend Income Fund, BHBFX MDMIX and the new Madison Dividend Value ETF
    DIVL,
    use relative dividend yields as part of their screening process for stocks. He said he has never seen such yields, when compared with that of the broad market, during 20 years of work as a securities analyst and portfolio manager.

    Dividend stocks are down

    Before diving in, we can illustrate the market’s current loathing of dividend stocks by comparing the performance of the Schwab U.S. Equity ETF
    SCHD,
    which tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, with that of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY.
    Let’s look at a total return chart (with dividends reinvested) starting at the end of 2021, since the Federal Reserve started its cycle of interest rate increases in March 2022:


    FactSet

    The Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index is made up of “high-dividend-yielding stocks in the U.S. with a record of consistently paying dividends, selected for fundamental strength relative to their peers, based on financial ratios,” according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

    The end results for the two ETFs from the end of 2021 through Tuesday are similar. But you can see how the performance pattern has been different, with the dividend stocks holding up well during the stock market’s reaction to the Fed’s move last year, but trailing the market’s recovery as yields on CDs and bonds have become so much more attractive this year. Let’s break down the performance since the end of 2021, this time bringing in the Madison Dividend Income Fund’s Class Y and Class I shares:

    Fund

    2023 return

    2022 return

    Return since the end of 2021

    SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

    14.9%

    -18.2%

    -6.0%

    Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF

    -3.8%

    -3.2%

    -6.9%

    Madison Dividend Income Fund – Class Y

    -4.7%

    -5.4%

    -9.9%

    Madison Dividend Income Fund – Class I

    -4.7%

    -5.3%

    -9.7%

    Source: FactSet

    Dividend stocks held up well during 2022, as the S&P 500 fell more than 18%. But they have been left behind during this year’s rally.

    The Madison Dividend Income Fund was established in 1986. The Class Y shares have annual expenses of 0.91% of assets under management and are rated three stars (out of five) within Morningstar’s “Large Value” fund category. The Class I shares have only been available since 2020. They have a lower expense ratio of 0.81% and are distributed through investment advisers or through platforms such as Schwab, which charges a $50 fee to buy Class I shares.

    The opportunity — high relative yields

    The Madison Dividend Income Fund holds 40 stocks. Justman explained that when he and Brown select stocks for the fund their investible universe begins with the components of the Russell 1000 Index
    RUT,
    which is made up of the largest 1,000 companies by market capitalization listed on U.S. exchanges. Their first cut narrows the list to about 225 stocks with dividend yields of at least 1.1 times that of the index.

    The Madison team calculates a stock’s relative dividend yield by dividing its yield by that of the S&P 500. Let’s do that for the Schwab U.S. Equity ETF
    SCHD
    (because it tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index) to illustrate the opportunity that Justman highlighted:

    Index or ETF

    Dividend yield

    5-year Avg. yield 

    10-year Avg. yield 

    15-year Avg. yield 

    Relative yield

    5-year Avg. relative yield 

    10-year Avg. relative yield 

    15-year Avg. relative yield 

    Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF

    3.99%

    3.41%

    3.20%

    3.16%

    2.6

    2.1

    1.8

    1.6

    S&P 500

    1.55%

    1.62%

    1.79%

    1.92%

    Source: FactSet

    The Schwab U.S. Equity ETF’s relative yield is 2.6 — that is, its dividend yield is 2.6 times that of the S&P 500, which is much higher than the long-term averages going back 15 years. If we went back 20 years, the average relative yield would be 1.7.

    Examples of high-quality stocks with high relative dividend yields

    After narrowing down the Russell 1000 to about 225 stocks with relative dividend yields of at least 1.1, Justman and Brown cut further to about 80 companies with a long history of raising dividends and with strong balance sheets, before moving further through a deeper analysis to arrive at a portfolio of about 40 stocks.

    When asked about oil companies and others that pay fixed quarterly dividends plus variable dividends, he said, “We try to reach out to the company and get an estimate of special dividends and try to factor that in.” Two examples of companies held by the fund that pay variable dividends are ConocoPhillips
    COP,
    -0.29%

    and EOG Resources Inc.
    EOG,
    +0.52%
    .

    Since the balance-sheet requirement is subjective “almost all fund holdings are investment-grade rated,” Justman said. That refers to credit ratings by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service or Fitch Ratings. He went further, saying about 80% of the fund’s holdings were rated “A-minus or better.” BBB- is the lowest investment-grade rating from S&P. Fidelity breaks down the credit agencies’ ratings hierarchy.

    Justman named nine stocks held by the fund as good examples of quality companies with high relative yields to the S&P 500:

    Company

    Ticker

    Dividend yield

    Relative yield

    2023 return

    2022 return

    Return since the end of 2021

    CME Group Inc. Class A

    CME,
    +0.47%
    2.04%

    1.3

    31%

    -23%

    1%

    Home Depot, Inc.

    HD,
    -0.39%
    2.79%

    1.8

    -3%

    -22%

    -25%

    Lowe’s Cos., Inc.

    LOW,
    +0.27%
    2.17%

    1.4

    3%

    -21%

    -19%

    Morgan Stanley

    MS,
    -1.54%
    4.24%

    2.7

    -3%

    -10%

    -13%

    U.S. Bancorp

    USB,
    -0.25%
    5.89%

    3.8

    -22%

    -19%

    -37%

    Medtronic PLC

    MDT,
    -4.32%
    3.62%

    2.3

    1%

    -23%

    -22%

    Texas Instruments Inc.

    TXN,
    -0.21%
    3.30%

    2.1

    -3%

    -10%

    -12%

    United Parcel Service Inc. Class B

    UPS,
    -0.16%
    4.17%

    2.7

    -8%

    -16%

    -23%

    Union Pacific Corp.

    UNP,
    +1.52%
    2.52%

    1.6

    2%

    -16%

    -15%

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company, fund or index.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Now let’s see how these companies have grown their dividend payouts over the past five years. Leaving the companies in the same order, here are compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for dividends.

    Before showing this next set of data, let’s work through one example among the nine stocks:

    • If you had purchased shares of Home Depot Inc.
      HD,
      -0.39%

      five years ago, you would have paid $193.70 a share if you went in at the close on Oct. 10, 2018. At that time, the company’s quarterly dividend was $1.03 cents a share, for an annual dividend rate of $4.12, which made for a then-current yield of 2.13%.

    • If you had held your shares of Home Depot for five years through Tuesday, your quarterly dividend would have increased to $2.09 a share, for a current annual payout of $8.36. The company’s dividend has increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% over the past five years. In comparison, the S&P 500’s weighted dividend rate has increased at a CAGR of 6.24% over the past five years, according to FactSet.

    • That annual payout rate of $8.36 would make for a current dividend yield of 2.79% for a new investor who went in at Tuesday’s closing price of $299.22. But if you had not reinvested, the dividend yield on your five-year-old shares (based on what you would have paid for them) would be 4.32%. And your share price would have risen 54%. And if you had reinvested your dividends, your total return for the five years would have been 75%, slightly ahead of the 74% return for the S&P 500 SPX during that period.

    Home Depot hasn’t been the best dividend grower among the nine stocks named by Justman, but it is a good example of how an investor can build income over the long term, while also enjoying capital appreciation.

    Here’s the dividend CAGR comparison for the nine stocks:

    Company

    Ticker

    Five-year dividend CAGR

    Dividend yield on shares purchased five years ago

    Dividend yield five years ago

    Current dividend yield

    Five-year price change

    Five-year total return

    CME Group Inc. Class A

    CME,
    +0.47%
    9.46%

    2.44%

    1.55%

    2.04%

    20%

    42%

    Home Depot Inc.

    HD,
    -0.39%
    15.20%

    4.32%

    2.13%

    2.79%

    54%

    75%

    Lowe’s Cos, Inc.

    LOW,
    +0.27%
    18.04%

    4.14%

    1.81%

    2.17%

    91%

    109%

    Morgan Stanley

    MS,
    -1.54%
    23.16%

    7.62%

    2.69%

    4.24%

    80%

    108%

    U.S. Bancorp

    USB,
    -0.25%
    5.34%

    3.60%

    2.78%

    5.89%

    -39%

    -26%

    Medtronic PLC

    MDT,
    -4.32%
    6.65%

    2.90%

    2.10%

    3.62%

    -20%

    -9%

    Texas Instruments Inc.

    TXN,
    -0.21%
    11.04%

    5.24%

    3.10%

    3.30%

    59%

    82%

    United Parcel Service Inc. Class B

    UPS,
    -0.16%
    12.23%

    5.56%

    3.12%

    4.17%

    33%

    56%

    Union Pacific Corp.

    UNP,
    +1.52%
    10.20%

    3.37%

    2.07%

    2.52%

    34%

    49%

    Source: FactSet

    This isn’t to say that Justman and Brown have held all of these stocks over the past five years. In fact, Lowe’s Cos.
    LOW,
    +0.27%

    was added to the portfolio this year, as was United Parcel Service Inc.
    UPS,
    -0.16%
    .
    But for most of these companies, dividends have compounded at relatively high rates.

    When asked to name an example of a stock the fund had sold, Justman said he and Brown decided to part ways with Verizon Communications Inc.
    VZ,
    -0.94%

    last year, “as we became concerned about its fundamental competitive position in its industry.”

    Summing up the scene for dividend stocks, Justman said, “It seems this year the market is treating dividend stocks as fixed-income instruments. We think that is a short-term issue and that this is a great opportunity.”

    Don’t miss: How to tell if it is worth avoiding taxes with a municipal-bond ETF

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  • Birkenstock’s stock falls  10% in trading debut after IPO priced at lower end of range

    Birkenstock’s stock falls 10% in trading debut after IPO priced at lower end of range

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    Iconic German sandal maker Birkenstock Holdings Ltd.’s stock fell 10% out of the gate in its trading debut Wednesday, signaling that investors remain cautious about new deals and the casual-footwear market remains competitive.

    The company’s initial public offering priced at $46 a share late Tuesday, a bit shy of the midpoint of its expected range. The company
    BIRK,
    -11.63%

    is trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker “BIRK.” Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley were the lead underwriters on the deal.

    The deal was expected to prove the latest test for the IPO market, which recently saw three key deals perform strongly on their first day of trade, only to fall back in subsequent sessions.

    Chip maker Arm Holdings Ltd.
    ARM,
    -1.09%

    ; Klaviyo 
    KVYO,
    -3.11%

    a digital marketing company; and Instacart, which trades as Maplebear Inc. 
    CART,
    -7.04%

    ; all enjoyed strong gains on their first day of trade but pared those in the following sessions. Instacart was quoted at $25.50 on Wednesday, well below its issue price of $30.

    Birkenstock clearly has its fans, as its customers are brand loyal, with 70% of existing U.S. consumers, for example, purchasing at least two pairs of its shoes, according to its filing documents.

    A survey found 86% of recent purchasers said they wanted to buy again, while 40% said they did not even consider another brand while buying.

    But as Kyle Rodda, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com, said the Birkenstock deal was to be a good measure of broader market sentiment and sentiment toward consumer-sensitive stocks.

    “It might tell us, too, whether cashed-up millennials like to buy the stocks of products they commonly find on the bottom shelf of their wardrobes,” he said in emailed comments.

    The valuation of around $8.6 billion also looks rich, he said. Based on the company’s latest revenue release, the stock’s price-to-sales ratio is above 6, “which is at the higher end of comparable consumer discretionary companies on Wall Street.

    “In a higher interest rate environment, these multiples may be hard to sustain in the short term, especially if consumer spending slows as expected next year as interest rate hikes bite households,” Rodda said.

    David Trainer, Chief Executive of independent equity research company New Constructs, said ahead of the deal that the valuation was far too high, noting that it was higher than peers such as Skechers USA Inc. 
    SKX,
    -0.67%
    ,
     Crocs Inc.
    CROX,
    -0.12%

     and Steve Madden Ltd. 
    SHOO,
    +0.60%
    .

    “Even more shockingly, the only footwear companies with a larger market cap are Nike Inc. 
    NKE,
    +0.80%

     and Deckers Outdoor 
    DECK,
    -0.07%
    ,
    ” he said, referring to the maker of Uggs. 

    “While Birkenstock is profitable, we think it is fair to say that the $8.7 billion valuation mark is too high, especially for a company that was valued at just $4.3 billion in early 2021. Not a whole lot has changed since then,” Trainer said in a report.

    For more, see: Birkenstock is going public: 5 things to know about the iconic German sandal maker’s IPO designs

    Trainer estimated that Birkenstock would need to generate more than $3.8 billion in annual revenue to justify its valuation, which is more than three times the $1.24 billion chalked up for all of 2022, according to its filing documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    “We don’t doubt that Birkenstock has strong brand equity and produces stylish sandals, but there is really no reason for this company to be public,” said Trainer. “We don’t think investors should expect to make any money by buying this IPO.”

    The Renaissance IPO exchange-traded fund
    IPO
    has gained 29% in the year to date, while the S&P 500
    SPX
    has gained 13%.

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  • Birkenstock prices IPO at $46 a share, at low end of range

    Birkenstock prices IPO at $46 a share, at low end of range

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    Iconic German sandal maker Birkenstock priced its initial public offering at $46 a share late Tuesday, a bit shy of the midpoint of its expected range, as investors remain cautious about new public debuts and the casual-footwear market remains competitive.

    With that pricing, Birkenstock would fetch a valuation of around $8.6 billion. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Birkenstock had expected to sell more than 32 million shares at an IPO price of between $44 and $49 a share. The company is expected to start trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday under the ticker “BIRK.” Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are the lead underwriters.

    Also read: Birkenstock’s looming IPO is expected to become the next test of investor appetite for deals

    The roughly 250-year-old company would make its debut as other large shoe makers, such as Nike Inc.
    NKE,
    +0.76%

    and Adidas
    ADDYY,
    +1.44%
    ,
    try to capitalize on a broader consumer shift toward more casual sneakers and attire. Birkenstock, which unlike many IPOs is profitable, describes itself as a company that has been welcomed across a variety of scenes over the decades — hippies in the 1970s, environmentalists in the ’80s and, in the ’90s, women inspired by the feminism movement looking for relief from high heels.

    “Today, consumers turn to Birkenstock in their search for healthy, high-quality products and as a rejection of formal dress culture,” the company said in its IPO filing.

    More recently, Birkenstock’s Boston clogs have enjoyed a rebound in popularity. The “Barbie” movie, which features the sandal, has also spurred greater interest. And the company, which depends on the Americas and Europe for a lot of its sales, has been investing more in e-commerce.

    Still, Birkenstock faces “material indebtedness,” and “material weaknesses” in its financial controls, according to its IPO filing. And its debut would follow some shakier performances from other recent IPOs, like Maplebear Inc.
    CART,
    +9.16%
    ,
    better known as the online grocery delivery service Instacart, and chip designer Arm Holdings
    ARM,
    +2.69%
    .
    Shares of those companies are down since their debuts.

    Renaissance Capital Founder and CEO Bill Smith said Birkenstock was hoping to appeal to investors based on a “combination of profitability and growth, along with widespread brand recognition.”

    However, New Constructs Chief Executive David Trainer raised concerns about the company’s potential valuation, when compared with rival footwear makers, and noted the weaker performances from Instacart and Arm.

    “We don’t doubt that Birkenstock has strong brand equity and produces stylish sandals, but there is really no reason for this company to be public,” he said. “We do not think investors should expect to make any money by buying this IPO.”

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  • PepsiCo’s stock climbs after earnings beat consensus and company raises guidance

    PepsiCo’s stock climbs after earnings beat consensus and company raises guidance

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    Shares of PepsiCo Inc.
    PEP,
    +0.67%

    rose 2.5% in premarket trading Tuesday, after the beverage and snack giant reported third-quarter earnings that topped consensus and raised its full-year guidance.

    Net income rose to $3.092 billion, or $2.24 a share, from $2.702 billion, or $1.95 a share, in the same period a year ago.

    Excluding nonrecurring items, core earnings per share of $2.25 were ahead of the FactSet consensus of $2.15.

    Revenue grew to $23.453 billion from $21.971 billion, also ahead of the FactSet consensus of $23.413 billion.

    “We are pleased with our performance as our businesses and associates displayed tremendous agility and resilience across geographies and categories in an evolving and dynamic environment,” Chief Executive Ramon Laguarta said in a statement.

    Revenue at Frito-Lay North America rose 7%, while it was up 5% at Quaker Foods North America. PepsiCo Beverages North America rose 8%, while Latin America was up 21% and Europe up 2%.

    Revenue for Africa, Middle East and South Asia fell 6%, while Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China Region’s revenue was up 4%.

    For 2023, the company revised its core EPS guidance to $7.54 from $7.47 previously.

    “For fiscal year 2024, we expect to deliver results towards the upper end of our long-term target ranges for both organic revenue and core constant currency EPS growth,” said the statement.

    The company’s long-term target ranges for both organic revenue growth — 4% to 6% growth — and core constant currency EPS growth– high-single-digit percentage increase– remain unchanged.

    The stock has fallen 11% in the year to date, while the S&P 500
    SPX
    has gained 13%.

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  • Pepsi Stock Gets Rocked by Weight-Loss Drug Fears. Earnings Could Make Shares a Buy.

    Pepsi Stock Gets Rocked by Weight-Loss Drug Fears. Earnings Could Make Shares a Buy.

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    Consumer-staples stocks have gotten hit hard in recent weeks, and hasn’t escaped the carnage. With the steady-Eddie beverage and snack giant set to report earnings on Oct. 10, its stock could be ready to pop.

    Continue reading this article with a Barron’s subscription.

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  • Why McDonald’s is bringing back its McRib for the umpteenth time

    Why McDonald’s is bringing back its McRib for the umpteenth time

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    Call it the long goodbye, fast food-style.

    McDonald’s
    MCD,
    +0.27%

    is planning to bring back its beloved McRib sandwich, just one year after giving the porky treat a “farewell tour.” The menu item is set to return next month, according to the company.

    “While it won’t be available nationwide, some lucky fans may find their favorite elusive saucy sandwich at their local McDonald’s restaurants this November,” McDonald’s said in a statement to MarketWatch on Wednesday.

    Not that the news should come as a complete surprise. McDonald’s has always employed a scarcity tactic in marketing the McRib. That is, the key to the sandwich’s appeal has been that it’s never around for long, leaving fans (including Homer Simpson) to devour it while they can.

    As Restaurant Business, a trade publication, observed last year: “If consumers think there is a shortage of a product, or that it won’t be around for long, they will rush out to get it. Think of the Great Toilet Paper Shortage in 2020 and how many people rushed out to get some the moment they thought they might run out.”

    The publication quoted McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski about this approach, particularly in relation to the “farewell tour”: “The McRib is the GOAT of sandwiches on our menu. And so like the GOATs Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, and others, you’re never sure if they’re fully retired or not.”

    By all accounts, the strategy has worked: A Wall Street Journal story once noted that McDonald’s sold more than 60 million of the sandwiches over a three-year period — in spite of the fact (or maybe because of the fact) it’s available in such limited fashion.

    Further proof of the McRib’s success: It has spawned some competition. In 2021, Arby’s released a Country Style Pork Rib sandwich as a limited-time fall offering — and took cheeky aim at McDonald’s in its marketing, referring to the McRib as a “rib-shaped sandwich” (there’s some truth to that — the McRib features a boneless pork patty with no actual ribs).

    Naturally, the McRib’s return has sparked plenty of reaction on social media. One commenter on X (formerly Twitter) referred to the fact the sandwich seemingly has nine lives. Another said that McDonald’s retracting of its “farewell tour” announcement has left them having “trust issues.”

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  • Blue Apron notches triple-digit percentage gain while Nike rallies after earnings beat and boosts Foot Locker stock

    Blue Apron notches triple-digit percentage gain while Nike rallies after earnings beat and boosts Foot Locker stock

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    Here are the day’s biggest movers:

    Stock gainers:

    Blue Apron Holding Inc.’s stock
    APRN,
    +133.52%

    rocketed by 134% after food-delivery start-up Wonder said it would acquire the company for $13 a share or about $103 million, just a fraction of its $2 billion in 2017 when the company went public.

    Shares of Nike
    NKE,
    +5.96%

    rallied 7% as the apparel maker, which is also part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    reported better-than-expected earnings, news that also lifted shares of European rivals including Adidas
    ADS,
    +6.22%
    .

    Foot Locker
    FL,
    +2.71%
    ,
    which sells athletic apparel, saw its stock rise by 3%.

    Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.‘s stock
    WBA,
    +6.39%

    rose 6.2% as a top gainer among the Nasdaq 100
    NDX
    as stocks reacted with gains to the latest inflation data.

    Stock decliners:

    Bionomics 
    BNOX,
    -11.87%
    ,
    whose shares jumped 242% on Thursday after reporting positive results from a mid-stage trial of a treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder, fell 8% in regular trade.

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  • Adidas and Puma shares rally after Nike results

    Adidas and Puma shares rally after Nike results

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    Investors bid up Nike’s rivals Adidas and Puma in early European markets action, after their U.S. peer beat first-quarter earnings forecasts.

    Adidas shares
    ADS,
    +6.09%

    jumped 6%, and Puma stock
    PUM,
    +6.22%

    rose 5%, after Nike
    NKE,
    +0.23%

    reported better margins than forecast even though revenue met expectation.

    JD Sports Fashion
    JD,
    +5.04%

    shares also jumped 6% in London.

    Analysts at JPMorgan led by Olivia Townsend said the read-across to the European sporting goods sector was better-than-expected demand in North America, a solid performance in Europe, expansion in gross margins and ongoing improvements in inventory levels.

    The major European indexes also advanced on Friday, with the U.K. FTSE 100
    UK:UKX,
    German DAX
    DX:DAX
    and French CAC 40
    FR:PX1
    each sporting gains around 0.7%.

    U.S. stock futures
    ES00,
    +0.42%

    also edged higher ahead of the release of the PCE price index report later. The S&P 500
    SPX
    ended Thursday with a 0.6% rise.

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  • Nike stock rises as profit beats estimates and inventories fall

    Nike stock rises as profit beats estimates and inventories fall

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    Nike Inc. on Thursday reported a fiscal first-quarter profit that beat expectations, although revenue came up just shy of Wall Street’s estimates, amid a drop in sales for Converse sneakers.

    Shares
    NKE,
    +0.23%

    were up 1.4% after hours.

    The athletic-gear giant reported fiscal first-quarter net income of $1.45 billion, or 94 cents a share, compared with $1.47 billion, or 93 cents a share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue crept higher to $12.94 billion, compared with $12.69 billion in the prior-year quarter.

    Analysts polled by FactSet expected Nike to report earnings per share of 76 cents, on revenue of $13 billion.

    Gross margin fell 10 basis points to 44.2%, weighed by higher product costs and a tougher foreign-exchange backdrop, and offset by “strategic pricing actions.” The company’s inventories fell 10%, as Wall Street seeks progress on efforts by businesses to narrow down their stockpiles of unsold goods.

    Sales for Converse shoes were $588 million, down 9%, amid weaker demand in North America. Growth in Asia, however, acted as a counterweight to that decline.

    Nike reported earnings as stiff competition — from the likes of Adidas
    ADDYY,
    -0.51%

    and On Holding
    ONON,
    +0.27%

    — and weaker demand for sneakers and clothing keeps prices lower. While analysts say Nike stands to benefit from an enduring shift toward more casual gear, recent outlooks from sporting-goods chains like Foot Locker Inc.
    FL,
    +0.65%

    and Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc.
    DKS,
    +0.38%

    have been more downbeat.

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  • Micron, Peloton, GameStop, Workday, Nike, CarMax, and More Stock Market Movers

    Micron, Peloton, GameStop, Workday, Nike, CarMax, and More Stock Market Movers

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  • Diageo Backs FY 2024 Views Despite Persistent Cost Pressures

    Diageo Backs FY 2024 Views Despite Persistent Cost Pressures

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    By Michael Susin

    Diageo said expectations for fiscal 2024 remain unchanged despite warning of persistent continuing cost pressures and macroeconomic challenges.

    The liquor maker–which owns Johnnie Walker whisky and Tanqueray gin–on Thursday said it expects a gradual improvement on both organic net sales and operating profit growth from the first half of the fiscal year ending June 30 and then an acceleration in the second half, given softer comparators.

    Diageo said it is well-positioned to deliver its 2023-25 guidance for organic net sales growth of 5% to 7% a year and organic operating profit growth of 6% to 9% a year.

    “I am confident in the resilience of our business and our ability to navigate these headwinds while executing our strategic priorities,” Chief Executive Debra Crew said.

    The company changed its reporting and dividend currency to U.S. dollar from the pound at the start of fiscal 2024.

    Write to Michael Susin at michael.susin@wsj.com

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  • After fighting over connected fitness, Peloton and Lululemon join forces

    After fighting over connected fitness, Peloton and Lululemon join forces

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    Peloton Interactive’s stock jumped after hours Wednesday after the connected-exercise-bike maker and yoga-wear giant Lululemon Athletica announced a five-year partnership that will combine digital fitness with workout and athleisure gear starting next month.

    The move comes as the fitness industry recalibrates after a boom and bust in at-home workouts due to the pandemic, and after Peloton
    PTON,
    +0.65%

    and Lululemon
    LULU,
    -0.40%

    tried to compete with each other directly on connected fitness. But as part of the deal, Lululemon will stop selling its Lululemon Studio Mirror — its answer to Peloton’s pairing of exercise equipment and exercise videos — before the end of the year.

    Shares of Peloton climbed 13.3% after hours Wednesday. Lululemon’s stock was up 0.3% after hours.

    Under the partnership, Peloton will become the “exclusive digital fitness content provider” for Lululemon. Lululemon, meanwhile, will become Peloton’s “primary athletic-apparel partner.” Some Peloton instructors will also promote Lululemon’s clothing as part of the arrangement.

    The partnership will target customers across North America, the U.K., Germany and Australia. Starting Oct. 11, co-branded clothing across Lululemon’s products will be available at Peloton stores and online in the United States, the U.K. and Canada, and in Peloton’s markets by March. Beginning Nov. 1, Lululemon Studio All-Access Members will have access to Peloton classes.

    “Our two companies share a vision to advance wellbeing through movement, and this partnership ensures our lululemon Studio Members will have access to the most expansive and dynamic offering of fitness content possible,” Celeste Burgoyne, Lululemon’s president for the Americas and global guest innovation, said in a statement.

    Lululemon bought Mirror — an interactive fitness company that displayed workout videos and fitness data on an actual mirror — for $500 million in 2020, when much of the world still faced pandemic-related restrictions.

    Then, lockdowns eased and pre-pandemic habits returned. Gyms reopened. Peloton started getting into trouble. It has cut jobs, shaken up leadership and announced a recall of 2 million exercise bikes due to injury risks. Shares of the company have fallen more than 90% since late 2020.

    Lululemon stock, however, has run higher since that time. Some analysts last year said that clothing made by the company was less prone to a broader apparel discounting frenzy. During its most recent round of earnings, Lululemon raised its full-year outlook despite what it called a “dynamic operating environment.

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  • Intel’s Big Chip-Making Push in Germany Hits Bottleneck

    Intel’s Big Chip-Making Push in Germany Hits Bottleneck

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    Intel’s Big Chip-Making Push in Germany Hits Bottleneck

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  • Microsoft’s Revised Activision Deal Addresses Competition Concerns, Says UK Regulator

    Microsoft’s Revised Activision Deal Addresses Competition Concerns, Says UK Regulator

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    By Elena Vardon

    Microsoft’s proposals to modify its $75 billion Activision acquisition address the concerns with the U.K. antitrust authority, the regulator said in a provisional decision Friday.

    The U.K. Competition and Markets Authority said that the new deal submitted by Microsoft should lessen any harm to competition in cloud gaming.

    The CMA said that the restructured transaction–through which Activision would sell its cloud gaming rights to Ubisoft–opens the door to the deal being cleared.

    The regulator is consulting on remedies put forward by Microsoft to address residual concerns it has before making a final decision, it said.

    The CMA opened a consultation on these remedies which will last until Oct. 6, it added.

    Write to Elena Vardon at elena.vardon@wsj.com

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  • Instacart, Ford, Pinterest, Coty, Dollar General, Intel, and More Stock Market Movers

    Instacart, Ford, Pinterest, Coty, Dollar General, Intel, and More Stock Market Movers

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