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Tag: Construction/Real Estate

  • Home buyers thought mortgage rates were finally going to go down. Why hasn’t it happened yet?

    Home buyers thought mortgage rates were finally going to go down. Why hasn’t it happened yet?

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    Why are mortgage rates still so high?

    After a year of mortgage rates near 8%, home buyers are eager for good news. Some forecasters have buoyed their hopes, estimating that the rate on the 30-year mortgage will drop to 6% or lower this year. 

    But rates have not fallen by much thus far. The 30-year rate is currently averaging 6.64%, according to Freddie Mac. That’s despite the fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve hasn’t raised its benchmark interest rate since July 2023 and signaled in December that it would cut that rate in 2024. Meanwhile, economists in the real-estate sector have been anticipating a drop in mortgage rates since last fall.

    “Homebuyers may be feeling like the lower mortgage rates they’ve been promised in 2024 are not materializing,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said in a statement. In a recent survey of Americans’ feelings about the housing market, 36% of respondents said they expect mortgage rates to fall in the next 12 months.

    While the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, it can influence them, just as it influences the overall U.S. economy through monetary policy. But even though the central bank has hit the brakes on tightening monetary policy, with the economy giving off mixed signals of strength and weakness, the timing of anticipated cuts to the benchmark rate remains unclear.

    That in turn creates uncertainty about when mortgage rates will drop enough to “unfreeze” the housing market. Home buyers are probably going to have to wait until the Fed acts definitively before they see those lower rates.

    The effect of a strong economy

    The strength of the U.S. economy is one reason mortgage rates have not yet fallen much, economists say. The job market is still hot, and inflation remains higher than the Fed’s goal, which is why the latest read on inflation, out Feb. 13, will be so closely watched. The fact that rates haven’t fallen this year is “a result of uncertainty about the economy and the timing of the Fed’s rate cuts,” Sturtevant said.

    “The strong job market is good news for the spring buying season, as higher household incomes are a necessary component, but it also means that mortgage rates are not likely to drop much further at this point,” Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, told MarketWatch.

    Another reason mortgage rates are still high is that lenders are trying to protect themselves against lower rates in the future, Cris deRitis, deputy chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told MarketWatch. If rates fall, lenders run the risk that a borrower will pay off a loan early by refinancing. That would limit how much in interest that lender could expect to make.

    “In an odd sort of way, then, the expectation that mortgage rates will be lower in the future can lead lenders to increase rates today to compensate for the prepayment risk,” deRitis said. 

    Lower rates, more competition among buyers

    So when can prospective buyers expect mortgage rates to fall significantly? 

    “Homebuyers should expect mortgage rates to move lower as we head through 2024,” Sturtevant said. While Fannie Mae expects rates to fall below 6% by the end of the year, other economists, like Fratantoni, expect the 30-year rate to finish the last quarter of 2024 at 6.1%.

    But even if rates do fall, that won’t necessarily mean buyers will be better able to afford a home, because a drop in rates could heat up competition for homes even as it boosts buyers’ purchasing power.

    “There is still very low inventory in the market, and buyers need to act quickly when they find the right home for them,” Sturtevant said.

    For the many homeowners who currently have a mortgage rate below 4%, rates stuck in the 6% range may be leading them to put off plans to sell their home and buy a new one.

    But it’s worth noting that since 2000, rates on 30-year mortgages have ranged from a high of about 8.62% to a low of 2.81%, averaging about 5% over that span. And compared with the historical average of the 1970s, which was 7.7%, the current rates in the 6% rage are not that high, deRitis noted.

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  • A new issue in divorce: Who keeps the mortgage rate?

    A new issue in divorce: Who keeps the mortgage rate?

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    When Ann Shea, 44, was finalizing a divorce last year, she knew she wanted to keep the suburban Chicago home where she was raising her school-age kids. But it was equally important for her to hold onto her relatively low mortgage rate.

    She had purchased the home in the summer of 2012, and had refinanced to a rate of 2.8% during the pandemic. She wanted to keep the house to provide stability for her kids, who were still young and attending school nearby.

    But to get the mortgage and the title of the home in her name only would have required refinancing, which would have bumped up her mortgage rate to the 6% range, where rates were averaging in mid-April when her divorce was finalized. A back-of-the-envelope math estimate would suggest that her monthly mortgage payment could have ballooned by 33%.

    “The divorce was so expensive, and to think about adding on that cost would have been terrible,” Shea, a compliance attorney, told MarketWatch. 

    Moving to such a comparatively high mortgage rate after 11 years of paying off the 2.8% loan would have felt to Shea like she had “lost all that ground,” she added. 

    Shea’s plight is becoming more common. As mortgage rates soared from historic lows during the pandemic to two-decade highs at the end of 2023, homeowners with rates under 3% became the envy of their friends and family. But when a marriage splits up, the question of who walks away with the lower mortgage rate sparks far more than casual jealousy.

    It’s increasingly a source of tension at the divorce negotiating table, Alla Roytberg, a New York City-based family and matrimonial law attorney and a mediator, told MarketWatch.

    “In the past, when rates were low, it was an easy answer, because somebody could refinance and get a 3.5% rate,” Royberg, who has been in matrimonial law for the last three decades, said. “And now, they have this 3% rate, and if they refinance, they’re going to get 7% or 6% — and that makes it unaffordable.”

    Unconventional solutions to who keeps the low mortgage rate

    Historically, a couple who is going through a divorce will either work out an arrangement to refinance the home and put it in one spouse’s name, or if the divorce is acrimonious, they can be forced by a court to sell the home and divide the proceeds, Erin Levine, co-founder of Hello Divorce, a company based in Alameda, Calif., that sells online divorce services, told MarketWatch.

    Levine is a family law attorney licensed in California, and has helped more than 5,000 individuals through the legal process of divorce. Hello Divorce recently beefed up its real-estate arm, because it’s seen a surge in interest in home-owning couples interested in divorce.

    Those traditional methods are still an option separating partners pursue today. But the large gap between prevailing mortgage rates and the rates on divorcing couples’ homes, coupled with a more expensive housing market, has prompted some to turn to unconventional strategies to divide real-estate assets. They can include deciding to co-own a property together or  agreeing to stay in the same house for a certain number of years.

    “People are trying to figure out ways to work things out of court,” Levine said.

    The financial motivation is strong, too. “We have to come up with creative options over how to handle those kinds of cases,” added Roytberg. “Some of them are barely able to find the budget that they were living with. How do you add another three, four thousand dollars in rent, when the money isn’t there?”

    Some couples are finding innovative solutions — from sale leasebacks to mortgage assumptions — to hang on to their prized ultra-low rate. Others are resorting to less sustainable stopgap measures.

    Here are some of the scenarios couples are turning to:

    Stalling until the market improves

    One strategy is to “buy time,” Levine said.

    In this scenario, the couple finalizes their divorce, but continues to co-own the home while waiting for rates to fall. Either they stay together in the house, or one spouse moves out, but they both continue to own the home together to avoid refinancing. 

    About a tenth of the divorcees on Levine’s platform are saying, “‘I really want to stay in the house, I can’t afford these mortgage rates, and I don’t know what the market’s gonna look like, so give me two years,’” Levine said. “And with you staying on the mortgage, in exchange, I’ll pay you some money.”

    Some arrangements include a higher-earning spouse paying the mortgage in place of spousal support, and then deducting it from their taxes, Roytberg explained. “It helps both sides,” she said, “because they don’t need to refinance at a higher rate for the other, and [the higher-income spouse] could directly pay the mortgage instead of spousal support.” 

    Continue living together while you ‘wait and see’

    The so-called lock-in effect — which refers to high mortgage rates forcing homeowners to stay put in homes with lower rates — has most homeowners frozen in place for the time being. Few are willing to give up their home and their low mortgage rate and move to a house that costs more, and requires a mortgage with significantly higher borrowing costs. That’s also led to a squeeze on resale inventory, which is hurting aspiring homeowners.

    But with rates staying below 7% since mid-December, there are some early signs that the housing market is coming back to life. 

    “Buyers and sellers are learning to live with uncertainty,” Shay Stein, a Las Vegas-based real-estate agent with Redfin
    RDFN,
    +6.23%
    ,
    said in a recent report. “They’ve realized no one has a crystal ball that can predict exactly when mortgage rates will fall back to 5%, so they’re making moves now,” she added, “because they can only wait so long to be near their grandkids, live in an RV like they’ve always dreamt of, or finalize their divorce.”

    But some divorcees are not as keen, opting to wait and see.

    “I had one [divorcee] that had decided that he was just gonna live in the basement, so good luck with that,” Jae Tolliver, an Ohio-based mortgage broker with Union Home Mortgage, told MarketWatch, referring to someone who wanted to continue to live in their existing house, even though they had split from their spouse. “People are definitely trying to get more creative.”

    Tolliver recently quipped on social media that couples are staying together not for the kids’ sake these days, but rather for their low mortgage rate.

    He also described another client who decided to stay in the house with their ex-spouse after the divorce, and continue to pay the mortgage payments like before just to keep the low rate. 

    But “it wasn’t working out so great,” Tolliver said. “Because at the end of the day, you have a divorced couple that’s living under the same roof, and that just isn’t going to work.” 

    Co-owning the home until a milestone is reached 

    Some splitting couples decide to continue to own their home together until a certain milestone, such as their youngest child graduating from high school.

    “It’s almost always tied to kids,” Levine said, because couples often want to provide stability. For example, a child who is involved in a very competitive sport may require more consistency in their schedule, so the parents may opt to stay put until the child gets to college.

    Sale leasebacks

    Some couples are turning to sale lease-backs, a strategy which Levine says is something she hadn’t encountered recently.

    Similar to the concept of buying time, a sale leaseback between a splitting couple can mean an arrangement where one individual sells the home to the other, and then rents it back from them with the option to repurchase their share later.

    “Some of our customers like it, because in divorce, a lot of people’s credit is screwed, as they’ve been separated for a while and in different households, so they haven’t been paying bills,” Levine said. Those financial setbacks could make it difficult to rent or buy a place on their own.

    By selling their share to their ex and leasing it back, they can secure a place to live without having to worry about the debt-to-income requirements, or their low credit score, which can be obstacles to finding housing, she added.

    Biting the bullet

    Other divorcing couples, anticipating the struggles ahead should they fight to keep their low rate, have decided to bite the bullet and refinance. 

    Take one recent divorcee’s case in San Mateo, Calif. 

    After a mother of two split with her husband in December 2021, they had gone through the process of formalizing their divorce. That meant that she would have to give up the 3.25% mortgage rate that she got in 2020.

    She spoke on the condition of anonymity because she did not want her story to affect her child support payments. 

    “I had to refinance while rates were insanely high,” the homeowner told MarketWatch. 

    She refinanced in October 2023 to get her ex-husband off the mortgage and the title of the home, as well as to buy him out of his equity in the home. She ended up with a 30-year mortgage rate of 8.25%.

    “I have an awful rate right now, I mean, it’s ridiculous. My mortgage has more than doubled,” she added. Her monthly payment went from $1,450 to $2,975. 

    She considered the possibility of selling the home and using her share of the proceeds to buy another one, or even renting a cheaper home. 

    But both options were unappealing because she would still be stuck with a higher rate, and would lose her home, which she has lived in since December 2013. She hopes to refinance in the future when rates fall. 

    “I’m just looking at it as if it’s temporary,” she added. She also got a raise recently which could help offset some of those expenses.

    Shea’s solution: Assuming the mortgage

    Shea, the suburban Chicago divorcee who didn’t want to give up her 2.8% rate, managed to land a mortgage assumption, meaning that she essentially took over the existing mortgage that had been in both her and her husband’s name, at the same rate.

    Assumable mortgages have become an incentive offered by some sellers, but they are rare and only available in certain circumstances.

    Shea worked with Tami Wollensak, a mortgage broker who is also a Certified Divorce Lending Professional with specialized training on divorce-related real-estate transactions. 

    It was Wollensak who recommended that Shea ask her lender if she could assume the loan in her own name. She guided Shea on how to ask for the right department and how to request an assumption, rather than a regular refinance.

    “It’s very unusual,” Wollensak, who is also based in Chicago, told MarketWatch. “Every lender looks at it differently.” 

    Fannie Mae
    FNMA,
    +23.63%

    guidelines give lenders some discretion to grant assumptions to people who are going through life transitions. But borrowers have to qualify for the mortgage and must be able to afford it on their own. The timing of the divorce must also allow for the assumption process to complete.

    When Shea first asked her lender, Iowa-based Green State Credit Union, about an assumption, she was turned away. But the duo kept digging and asking for different people to talk to. 

    The lender eventually allowed Shea to assume the mortgage at 2.8%, and have only her name appear on it. Wollensak says the lender may have allowed Shea to take over the payment alone without her spouse based on her strong credit profile. Green State Credit Union did not respond to a request for comment.

    “It depends from servicer to servicer. It’s very much like the Wild, Wild West,” Wollensak said. Shea did not pay any expenses associated with the assumption of the loan, such as closing costs or other fees.

    “It was a lot of back and forth trying to find the right person,” Shea said. “I’m so grateful.”

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  • Oaktree Capital calls commercial real estate ‘most acute area of risk’ right now

    Oaktree Capital calls commercial real estate ‘most acute area of risk’ right now

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    Distressed-debt giant Oaktree Capital sees big opportunities in credit unfolding over the next few years as a wall of debt comes due.

    Oaktree’s incoming co-chief executives Armen Panossian, head of performing credit, and Bob O’Leary, portfolio manager for global opportunities, see a roughly $13 trillion market that will be ripe for the picking.

    Within that realm is high-yield bonds, BBB-rated bonds, leveraged loans and private credit — four areas of the market that have only mushroomed from their nearly $3 trillion size right before the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.

    “Clearly, the most acute area of risk right now is commercial real estate,” the co-CEOs said in a Wednesday client note. “That’s because the maturity wall is already upon us and it’s not going to abate for several years.”

    More than $1 trillion of commercial real-estate loans are set to come due in 2024 and 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

    A retreat in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y,
    to about 4.1% on Wednesday from a 5% peak in October, has provided some relief even though many borrowers likely will still struggle to refinance.

    Related: Commercial real estate a top threat to financial system in 2024, U.S. regulators say

    “There’s a need for capital, especially for office properties where there are vacancies, rental growth hasn’t materialized, or the rate of borrowing has gone up materially over the last three years. This capital may or may not be readily available, and for certain types of office properties, it absolutely isn’t available,” the Oaktree team said.

    With that backdrop, the firm expects to dust off its playbook from the financial crisis and acquire portfolios of commercial real-estate loans from banks, but also plans to participate in “credit-risk transfer” deals that help lenders reduce exposure.

    Oaktree also sees opportunities brewing in private credit, as well as in high-yield and leveraged loans, where “several hundred” of the estimated 1,500 companies that have issued such debt are likely “to be just fine” even if defaults rise, they said.

    Another area to watch will be the roughly $26 trillion Treasury market, where Oaktree has some concerns “about where the 10-year Treasury yield goes from here” — given not only the U.S. budget deficit and the deluge of supply that investors face, but also how foreign buyers, once the “largest owners in prior years, may be tapped out.”

    Related: Here are two reasons why the 10-year Treasury yield is back above 4%

    U.S. stocks
    SPX

    DJIA

    COMP
    fell Wednesday after strong retail-sales data for December pointed to a resilient U.S. economy, despite the Federal Reserve having kept its policy rate at a 22-year high since July.

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  • DocuSign's stock pops as company reportedly considers a sale

    DocuSign's stock pops as company reportedly considers a sale

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    One-time pandemic darling DocuSign Inc. may be looking to sign a deal of its own.

    The e-signature company is working with advisers as it considers a sale, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday afternoon. A deal for DocuSign
    DOCU,
    +11.37%
    ,
    valued at upwards of $11 billion, could result in one of the largest recent leveraged buyouts, the report said, noting that private-equity firms and technology companies were among the potential suitors.

    DocuSign shares were up more than 11% in afternoon trading Friday following the report.

    A DocuSign spokesperson said the company doesn’t comment on rumors or speculation.

    The company was a pandemic-era poster child as businesses looked for ways to get signatures on contracts, mortgages and other documents in a virtual world. But DocuSign has struggled to match its earlier growth rates as offices have resumed in-person activity, and management acknowledged a tough macroeconomic environment when DocuSign last posted earnings.

    DocuSign shares traded above $310 at their highest point in September 2021, but they closed Thursday near $56. The stock was changing hands just south of $64 Friday amid the intraday rally.

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  • Mortgage rates' dip to 7% could be brief if jobs market stays strong, Fannie Mae economist says

    Mortgage rates' dip to 7% could be brief if jobs market stays strong, Fannie Mae economist says

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    November’s sharp pullback in 30-year fixed mortgage rates may not last if the labor market remains strong, said Mark Palim, deputy chief economist at Fannie Mae.

    Palim was speaking to the robust jobs report released on Friday, showing the U.S. added 199,000 jobs in November and that wages rose, albeit with the figures somewhat inflated by the return of striking workers from the auto industry and from Hollywood.

    Homebuyers can benefit from a robust labor market and the near 80 basis point decline in mortgage rates since the end of October, Palim said. But if the “labor markets remain this strong, we believe the pace of mortgage rate declines will likely not continue in the near term or may partially reverse,” he said in a statement.

    The benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate was edging down to 7.05% on Friday, after surging to nearly 8% in October, according to Mortgage Daily News.

    Optimism around the potential for falling mortgage costs to thaw home sales helped lift shares of Toll Brothers Inc.,
    TOL,
    +1.86%

    and a slew of other homebuilders tracked by the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, 
    XH,
    to record highs earlier this week, even while investors in some homebuilder bonds have been sellers in recent weeks.

    Yields on 10-year
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    and 30-year Treasury notes
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    were up sharply Friday, to about 4.23% and 4.32%, respectively, but still below the highs of about 5% in October. The surge in long-term borrowing costs was stoked by tough talk by Federal Reserve officials about the need to keep rates higher for longer to bring inflation down to a 2% annual target.

    Read: Solid job growth, sharp wage gains sends Treasury yields up by the most in months

    U.S. stocks were up Friday afternoon, shaking off earlier weakness following the jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    was 0.2% higher, further narrowing the gap between its last record close set two years ago, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    also were up 0.2%, according to FactSet data.

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  • Consumer sentiment jumps in early December for the first increase in five months

    Consumer sentiment jumps in early December for the first increase in five months

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    This is a developing story. Stay tuned for updates here.

    The numbers: The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment rose to a preliminary December reading of 69.4 from a six-month low of 61.3 in the prior month. This is the highest level since August.

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected a December reading of 62.4.

    Expectations of inflation cooled in early December, according to the report.

    Americans think inflation will average a 3.1% rate over the next year, down from 4.5% in the prior month. That’s the lowest level since March 2021.

    Expectations for inflation over the next five years fell to 2.8% from 3.2% in November, which was the highest reading in over a decade.

    Key details: According to the report, a gauge of consumers’ views on current conditions jumped to 74 in December from 68.3 in the prior month, while a barometer of their expectations of the future rose to 66.4 from 56.8.

    Big picture: A lot of factors were behind the increase in confidence, with the solid job market and declining gasoline prices mentioned most often by economists. Stock prices have also been strong. Despite the gains, sentiment is still well below prepandemic levels.

    Market reaction: Stocks
    DJIA

    SPX
    were higher in early trading on Friday, while the 10-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    rose to 4.21% after the solid job report was released earlier in the morning.

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  • New-home sales drop in October to much lower level than expected

    New-home sales drop in October to much lower level than expected

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    The numbers: U.S. new-home sales fell 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 in October, from a revised 719,000 in September, the government reported Monday. 

    Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast new-home sales to occur at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 725,000 in October.

    The data are often revised sharply….

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  • Health of several key sectors, including the U.S. consumer, plus an outlook from Fed’s Powell on radar this coming week

    Health of several key sectors, including the U.S. consumer, plus an outlook from Fed’s Powell on radar this coming week

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    Recession fears are rising. Nothing beats fear better than good information and that’s what we will get this week. Investors and economists will get good insight into the mood of U.S. consumers and hear the last words of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ahead of the central bank’s next interest-rate meeting on Dec. 12-13.

    November consumer confidence

    Tuesday, 10:00 a.m. Eastern

    Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect that consumer’s view on the outlook have soured over the past few weeks. Geopolitical…

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  • These are the most expensive ZIP Codes in the U.S. for house shoppers

    These are the most expensive ZIP Codes in the U.S. for house shoppers

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    Where are home buyers paying the most? Mostly on the coasts, according to a new report.

    Based on a ZIP Code–level analysis of closed home-sale prices, PropertyShark, a real-estate data site owned by Yardi Systems, found that, of the top 100 most expensive ZIP Codes in the U.S., 65% were in California. 

    On the East Coast, New York City had the highest concentration of pricey postal codes for home buyers, the report said.

    The analysis of ZIP Codes was based on the actual sale prices of homes, not their asking prices, PropertyShark noted. “Whereas asking prices reflect sellers’ wishes, calculating medians based on sale prices reflects the transactional reality on the ground,” PropertyShark said.

    The most expensive ZIP Code in the U.S., 94027, in Atherton, Calif., has been a longtime leader on the list, the report said. The median sale price of a home there was a cool $8.3 million. The Bay Area town, in San Mateo County, is home to some rich and famous people, including NBA star Steph Curry and his wife, Ayesha; tech billionaire Marc Andreessen and his wife, Laura; and others.

    Curry and Andreessen have opposed denser and more affordable housing developments in their neighborhoods, earning them criticism as “NIMBYs,” for Not In My Backyard. “Atherton is almost exclusively zoned for single-family homes, with a one-acre minimum lot requirement dating back to the 1920s,” the PropertyShark report stated.

    Across the country, New York City had the highest density of expensive ZIP Codes, with eight spread across Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens.

    The Hamptons town of Sagaponack (11962), a Long Island enclave popular with celebrities, ranked No. 2 on the list, with a median home price of $8,075,000.

    Nationally, the median home price, meaning the price in the exact middle of the price range, was $394,400 as of September, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    These are the most expensive ZIP Codes in America as of 2023, according to PropertyShark:

    • Atherton, Calif. (94027) 

      • Median home-sale price in 2023: $8,300,000 

    • Sagaponack, N.Y. (11962) 

      • Median home-sale price in 2023: $8,075,000 

    • Miami Beach, Fla. (33109) 

      • Median home-sale price in 2023: $5,500,000 

    • Santa Barbara, Calif. (93108) 

      • Median home-sale price in 2023: $5,000,000 

    • Beverly Hills, Calif. (90210) 

      • Median home-sale price in 2023: $4,800,000 

    • Stinson Beach, Calif. (94970) 

      • Median home-sale price in 2023: $4,500,000 (tie) 

    • Water Mill, N.Y. (11976) 

      • Median home-sale price in 2023: $4,500,000 (tie) 

    • Newport Beach, Calif. (92661) 

      • Median home-sale price in 2023: $4,495,000 

    • Santa Monica, Calif. (90402) 

      • Median home-sale price in 2023: $4,489,000 

    • Medina, Wash. (98039) 

      • Median home-sale price in 2023: $4,388,000 

    • Rancho Santa Fe, Calif. (92067) 

      • Median home-sale price in 2023: $4,248,000

    Read on: This U.S. city has the highest share of superrich residents in the world — and it’s not New York, San Francisco or Seattle

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  • U.S. construction spending rises for the ninth month in a row in September

    U.S. construction spending rises for the ninth month in a row in September

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    Construction spending rose in September, as companies and the government continued to ramp up projects across the U.S.

    Spending on construction projects rose 0.4% in September to nearly $2 trillion, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. 

    The…

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  • Here’s why Zillow, Redfin and other real-estate stocks tanked after a jury ruling

    Here’s why Zillow, Redfin and other real-estate stocks tanked after a jury ruling

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    Shares of real-estate names plunged Tuesday following a jury ruling that has the potential to shake up the way people purchase homes.

    A Missouri jury earlier Tuesday deemed that the National Association of Realtors, HomeServices of America and Keller Williams colluded to inflate or maintain high commission rates. Jefferies analyst John Conaltuoni said in a note to clients that a judge could issue an injunction preventing commission sharing on MLSs, or multiple listing services, which would hurt the buyer-agent business.

    See more: A Missouri jury goes after the real-estate industry’s commission structure. Here’s what that could mean for homeowners.

    Shares of Opendoor Technologies Inc.
    OPEN,
    -9.09%

    plunged 9% on Tuesday, while shares of Zillow Group Inc.
    ZG,
    -6.87%

    Z,
    -6.98%

    fell 7%, shares of Redfin Corp.
    RDFN,
    -5.67%

    dropped 6% and shares of RE/MAX Holdings Inc.
    RMAX,
    -4.36%

    declined 4%.

    Conaltuoni thinks the recent ruling could bring big changes to the Participation Rule, which is an NAR requirement for seller agents to disclose the compensation being offered to buyer agents when they list through an MLS. The Participation Rule could soon get banned or turn optional, in his view.

    Such a ban “would cause negotiations about buyer agent commissions to occur when an offer is presented, since there would no longer be an avenue to communicate splits up front,” he wrote. “This would eliminate the seller’s incentive to compensate buyer agents, which would force them to seek compensation directly. Shifting the burden of payment to buyers would likely meaningfully reduce their use of agents given most already struggle to cover closing costs.”

    Conaltuoni further commented that were the rule to become optional, the “status quo” likely would continue.

    Read: Why aren’t homeowners selling their homes? It’s not just the ‘lock-in effect’

    What would these developments mean for Zillow, which reports earnings Wednesday afternoon? He flagged that nearly two-thirds of the company’s revenue comes from its Premier Agent business, which itself is primarily made up of revenue from buyer agents. “[A] reduction in their usage would force [Zillow] to pivot to offering products for seller agents and create near-term headwinds to revenue,” he wrote, while cutting his price target on Zillow’s stock to $48 from $60.

    Bernstein’s Nikhil Devnani wrote that Zillow “is NOT part of this case and not directly impacted by the ruling,” but there’s the potential for repercussions down the line.

    “Premier Agent is built around buyer commissions,” Devnani said. “And a reduction to commission rates (which could happen if cooperative compensation were outright banned in the worst case scenario) would create challenges for industry revenue growth, in our view. Maintaining the current structure with more transparency would have less impact we believe. It would need a stronger decoupling of who pays for buyer and seller agents.”

    While Redfin shares dropped Tuesday along with other names, Chief Executive Glenn Kelman put out a blog post titled: “Change Comes to the Real Estate Industry.”

    “The judge may take days or weeks to decide what structural changes the jury’s verdict will entail,” he wrote, and appeals could take years.

    But traditional brokers “will undoubtedly now train their agents to welcome conversations about fees, just as Redfin has been doing for years, especially when advising a seller on what fee to offer to buyers’ agents,” he continued. “Rather than saying that a fee for the buyers’ agent of 2% or 3% is customary or recommended, agents will say that a buyers’ agent fee, if one is offered at all, is entirely up to the seller. This is as it should be.”

    RBC Capital Markets analyst Brad Erickson wrote after the ruling that just over half of Redfin transactions come from the buyside. Its stock and Zillow’s “partially reflected these risks coming in,” in his view.

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  • U.S. pending home sales stay near record low despite modest pickup in September

    U.S. pending home sales stay near record low despite modest pickup in September

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    The numbers: U.S. pending home sales rebounded in September but remain near a record low as high mortgage rates and low inventory continue to hurt the real-estate sector.

    Pending home sales rose 1.1% in September from the previous month, according to the monthly index released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors.

    But pending home sales were still depressed on an annual basis due to the dearth of home listings. The September figure was the second-lowest reading since the NAR began tracking the data in 2001.

    Transactions were down 11% from last year.

    Nonetheless, the sales pace exceeded expectations on Wall Street. Economists were expecting pending home sales to fall 1.5% in September.

    Pending home sales reflect transactions where the contract has been signed for the sale of an existing home, but the sale has not yet closed. Economists view it as an indicator of the direction of existing-home sales in subsequent months.

    The NAR also released an updated forecast for existing-home sales on Thursday. The group expects sales to fall 17.5% in 2023 to a pace of 4.15 million, which will be the slowest pace since 2008. Yet due to low inventory, the median home price will increase by 0.1% in 2023, the NAR said, to $386,700.

    The group expects home sales to rebound in 2024, rising 13.5% to a rate of 4.71 million. Home prices are expected to rise 0.7% next year, to $389,500. 

    The NAR also expects the 30-year mortgage rate to fall to 6.9% in 2023 and 6.3% in 2024. The 30-year was averaging 7.98% as of Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.

    Big picture: The U.S. housing market is dealing with problems on both the demand and supply sides, but the NAR seems confident that the sector will recover in the new year.

    At present, not only are rates high enough to discourage home buyers, the lack of inventory is also making homes more expensive, which further spooks buyers. The NAR expects the pace of existing-home sales to fall to the slowest in 15 years, when the U.S. was in the midst of a recession caused by the subprime-lending crisis.

    What the realtors said: “Because of home builders’ ability to create more inventory, new-home sales could be higher this year despite increasing mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said. “This underscores the importance of increased inventory in helping to get the overall housing market moving.”

    Market reaction: Stocks
    DJIA

    SPX
    were mixed in early trading on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    rose above 4.9%.

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  • WeWork COO Anthony Yazbeck to leave

    WeWork COO Anthony Yazbeck to leave

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    Office-space provider WeWork Inc.
    WE,
    -8.41%

    on Thursday said that Anthony Yazbeck would leave his position of president and chief operating officer, a move that will take hold on Friday. WeWork said in a filing that the departure was “not due to any disagreement with respect to operations, strategy, or any accounting matters, financial statements, financial disclosures or related disclosure controls and procedures.” The decision was made on Oct. 13. Under the terms of the departure, Yazbeck will be entitled to a payment of 874,448 pounds, or around $1.1 million, as well as 360,000 pounds “as payment in lieu of the contractual notice period under Mr. Yazbeck’s employment agreement.” Both payments will be made in cash. Shares were up 2.4% after hours.

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  • Can the average American family be called millionaires? Yes, but …

    Can the average American family be called millionaires? Yes, but …

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    It seems hard to believe, and it’s one of those cases where definitions mean everything, but the average family in America has achieved millionaire status.

    That’s according to the Federal Reserve’s latest authoritative survey of consumer finances, and it comes with lots of asterisks attached.

    But first, the data: The mean net worth of the average American household, even adjusting for inflation, was $1.06 million last year. Compared with 2019, that figure was up 23%, boosted by rising house prices and a surging stock market
    SPX.

    OK, here comes the but: The median, as opposed to the mean, net worth of the typical American household is just $192,900. That figure still represents an impressive after-inflation gain of 37% over those three years, but it’s more in line with what everyday experience suggests.

    The median household refers to the grouping smack in the middle of rankings. The average, or mean, gets boosted by the likes of billionaires Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. American households by income in the top 10% have a net worth, on average, of $6.63 million, according to the Fed.

    Showing the massive importance of home ownership to amassing wealth, those who own their residence have an average net worth of $1.53 million, compared with just $155,000 for renters.

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  • U.S. home sales fell in September to the lowest level since the Great Recession

    U.S. home sales fell in September to the lowest level since the Great Recession

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    The numbers: Home sales in September fell to the lowest level since 2010, as high mortgage rates continue to hammer the housing market.

    Aside from low inventory, rising rates are eroding buyers’ purchasing power, and drying up demand. Sales of previously owned homes fell by 2% to an annual rate of 3.96 million in September, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

    That’s the number of homes that would be sold over an entire year if sales took place at the same rate every month as they did in September. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.

    The drop in sales was slightly better than what Wall Street was expecting. They forecasted existing-home sales to total 3.9 million in September.

    Compared to September 2022, home sales are down by 15.4%. 

    Key details: The median price for an existing home in September rose for the third month in a row to $394,300. Prices are up 2.8% from a year ago. That was the highest price for the month of September since NAR began tracking the data.

    Home prices peaked in June 2022, when the median price of a resale home hit $413,800.

    Around 26% of properties are being sold above list price, the NAR noted.

    The total number of homes for sale in September fell by 8.1% from last year, to 1.13 million units. Housing inventory for the month of September was the lowest since 1999, when the NAR began tracking the data.

    Homes listed for sale remained on the market for 21 days on average, up from the previous month. Last September, homes were only on the market for 19 days.

    Sales of existing homes rose only in the Northeast in September, as compared with the previous month, by 4.2%. The median price of a home in the region was $439,900. 

    All-cash buyers made up 29% of sales, highest since January 2023. The share of individual investors or second-home buyers was 18%. About 27% of homes were sold to first-time home buyers.

    Big picture: The U.S. housing market is in the midst of a serious slowdown that is primarily driven by high mortgage rates. High rates spook home buyers, drying up demand, and high rates also deter homeowners from selling since they may have to purchase another home. For a homeowner with a 3% mortgage rate for the next few decades, there’s little incentive to move.  

    And the residential sector is likely to see sales fall further in October’s data, as the 30-year mortgage inches even higher. Demand for mortgages has collapsed, and some outlets like Mortgage News Daily are quoting a rate of 8% for the 30-year.

    Existing-home sales in 2023 could fall to the slowest pace since the housing bubble burst in 2008, real-estate brokerage Redfin said on Thursday, at a 4.1 million pace. 

    What the realtors said: “Mortgage rates and limited inventory has been the story throughout this year — no different this month, other than the fact that interest rates are moving higher,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. 

    “The Federal Reserve simply cannot keep raising interest rates in light of softening inflation and weakening job gains,” he added. “We don’t want the Fed to overdo it and cause great harm to real estate.” 

    Yun also questioned whether there will be a “fundamental change” or a temporary one to the “American way of life” due to the slowdown in sales.

    Market reaction: Stocks were down in early trading on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    rose above 4.9%.

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  • Mortgage bankers expect the 30-year rate to drop to 6.1% by the end of 2024

    Mortgage bankers expect the 30-year rate to drop to 6.1% by the end of 2024

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    PHILADELPHIA — High mortgage rates are hammering home buyers, but expect rates to fall over the next year, one industry group says.

    Mortgage rates are over 7.5% as of mid-October, but expect rates to fall to 6.1% by the end of 2024, according to a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The group also expects the 30-year mortgage rate to fall to 5.5% by the end of 2025.

    A big driver pushing down rates will be a slowing U.S. economy, Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and senior vice president at the MBA, said during the group’s annual convention in Philadelphia on Sunday.

    Not only is the group expecting a recession in the first half of 2024, but the MBA also forecasts unemployment to rise and inflation to slow, which are signs of a weakening U.S. economy. That will, in turn, push rates down, as the market will expect the Fed to back off on hiking interest rates, they said.

     “The Fed’s hiking cycle is likely nearing an end, but while Fed officials have indicated that additional rate hikes might not be needed, rate cuts may not come as soon or proceed as rapidly as previously expected,” Fratantoni said.

    Consequently, mortgage lenders could see origination volume to increase 19% in 2024, to $1.95 trillion from the $1.64 trillion expected this year. Purchase originations are expected to rise by 11%, the MBA said. 

    The pandemic years were boom times for the mortgage industry. 2021 was a record year, when $4.4 trillion in mortgages were originated.

    But after the Fed began hiking interest rates in the middle of 2022, surging rates have put a damper on home-buying activity. Homes are far more expensive to purchase due to high rates, with the median principal and interest payment rising to $2,170 in August, compared to $1,284 in August 2021, according to MBA data.

    Fratantoni on Sunday said that he believed the “Fed is done” with rate hikes. There are two Fed meetings left this year. The MBA said it does not expect the Fed to hike interest rates in November, and to potentially hold off in December, depending on the data.

    But for now, lenders should brace for “a little bit more pain” for the next few months, which is generally a slower season for home sales, until a turnaround at the end of spring in 2024, Marina Walsh, vice president of industry analysis at the MBA, said during a presentation.

    Home prices will still continue to rise over the next three years, the MBA added, due to the persistence of tight inventory.

    Millennials are entering their prime home-buying years, said Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at the MBA, which will keep prices from falling.

    “The forecast is for low single-digit growth over the next few years supported by [low] inventory,” he said. “We’re not expecting national declines yet.”

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  • Homes are expensive right now, but these mortgage bonds look cheap

    Homes are expensive right now, but these mortgage bonds look cheap

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    U.S. homes may be wildly unaffordable for first-time buyers, but mortgage bonds backed by those same properties could be dirt cheap.

    Shocks from the Federal Reserve’s dramatic rate increases have walloped the $8.9 trillion agency mortgage-bond market, the main artery of U.S. housing finance for almost the past two decades.

    Spreads, or compensation for investors, have hit historically wide levels, even through the sector is underpinned by home loans that adhere to the stricter government standards set in the wake of the subprime-mortgage crisis.

    Bond prices also have tumbled, sinking from a peak above 106 cents on the dollar to below 98, despite guarantees that mean investors will be fully repaid at 100 cents on the dollar.

    From $106 to $98 cents, agency mortgage-bond prices are falling.


    Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

    “It’s really, really struggled,” Nick Childs, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, said of the agency mortgage-bond market during a Thursday talk on the firm’s fixed-income outlook.

    Yet Childs and other investors also see big opportunities brewing. While mortgage bonds have gotten cheaper with the sector’s two anchor investors on the sidelines, the stalled housing market should breed scarcity in the bonds, which could help lift the sector out of a roughly two-year slump.

    Prices have tumbled since rate shocks hit, but also since the Fed continued winding down its large footprint in the sector by letting bonds it accumulated to help shore up the economy roll off its balance sheet.

    Banks awash in underwater securities have pulled back too. The repricing of similar bonds helped hasten the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March.

    “Banks have been not only absent, but selling,” said Childs, who helps oversee the Janus Henderson Mortgage-Backed Securities exchange-traded fund
    JMBS,
    an actively managed $2 billion fund focused on highly rated securities with minimal credit risk.

    “But we’re moving into an environment where supply continues to dwindle,” he said, given anemic refinancing activity and the dearth of new home loans being originated since 30-year fixed mortgage rates topped 7%.

    The bulk of all U.S. mortgage bonds created in the past two decades have come from housing giants Freddie Mac
    FMCC,
    +0.66%
    ,
    Fannie Mae
    FNMA,
    +1.09%

    and Ginnie Mae, with government guarantees, making the sector akin to the $25 trillion Treasury market. But unlike investors in Treasurys, investors in mortgage bonds also earn a spread, or extra compensation above the risk-free rate, to help offset its biggest risk: early repayments.

    While homeowners typically take out 30-year loans, most also refinanced during the pandemic rush to lock in ultralow rates, instead of continuing to make three decades of payments on more expensive mortgages. If someone refinances, sells or defaults on a home, it leads to repayment uncertainty for bond investors.

    “To put this another way, the biggest risk to mortgages is now off the table, yet spreads are at or near historic wides,” said Sam Dunlap, chief investment officer, Angel Oak Capital Advisors, in a new client note.

    That spread is now far above the long-term average, topping levels offered by relatively low-risk investment-grade corporate bonds.

    Agency mortgage bonds are offering far more spread that investment-grade corporate bonds. But these mortgage bonds will fully repay if borrowers default.


    Janus Henderson Investors

    Agency mortgage bonds typically are included in low-risk bond funds and can be found in exchange-traded funds. While they have been hard hit by the sharp selloff in long-dated Treasury bonds
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y

    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y,
    there has also been hope that the worst of the storm could be nearly over.

    Goldman Sachs credit analysts recently said they favored the sector but warned in a weekly client note that it still faces “high rate volatility and a dearth of institutional demand.”

    As evidence of the U.S. bond selloff, the popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
    TLT
    recently sank to its lowest level in more than a decade. It also was on pace for a negative 10% total return on the year so far, according to FactSet. Janus Henderson’s JMBS ETF was on pace for a negative 2.7% total return on the year through Friday.

    “Frankly, why they fit portfolios so well is that because the government backs agency mortgages, there is no credit risk,” Childs said. “So if a borrower defaults, you get par back on that. It just comes through as a typical payment.”

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  • ‘Banks fail. It’s OK,’ says former FDIC chair Sheila Bair.

    ‘Banks fail. It’s OK,’ says former FDIC chair Sheila Bair.

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    Higher interest rates may be painful in the short term, but banks, savers and the financial ecosystem will be better off in the long run, said Sheila Bair, former chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

    “When money is free, you squander it,” Bair said in an interview with MarketWatch. “It’s like anything. If it doesn’t cost you anything, you’re going to value it less. And we’ve had free money for quite some time now.”

    Bair, who led the FDIC from 2006 to 2011, caused a stir recently in criticizing “moonshots,” the crypto industry and “useless innovations” like Bored Ape NFTs, which proliferated because of speculation and near-zero interest rates.

    Her main message has been that the path to higher rates, while potentially “tricky,” ultimately will lead to a more stable financial system, where “truly promising innovations will attract capital” and where savers can actually save.

    Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair was dubbed “the little guy’s protector in chief” by Time Magazine in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis.

    Bair sat down for an interview with Barron’s Live, MarketWatch edition, to talk about the ripple effects of higher rates, what could trigger another financial crisis and why more regional banks sitting on unrealized losses could fail in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in March.

    “We probably will have more bank failures,” Bair said. “But you know what? Banks fail. It’s OK. The system goes on. It’s important for people to understand that households stay below the insured deposit caps.”

    The FDIC insures bank deposits up to $250,000 per account. It also has overseen 565 bank failures since 2001.

    “I know borrowing costs are going up, but your rewards for saving it are going up too,” she said. “I think that’s a very good thing.”

    However, Bair isn’t focused only on money traps and pitfalls for grown-ups. She also has two new picture books coming out that aim to explain big financial themes to young readers, including where easy-money ways, speculation and inflation come from.

    “One thing that I’ve learned from the kids is to not ask them what a loan is, because when I did that, a little hand when up, and she said: ‘That’s when you’re by yourself,’” Bair said.

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  • S&P 500 scores best day in 3 weeks as bond yields ease back

    S&P 500 scores best day in 3 weeks as bond yields ease back

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    U.S. stocks finished higher on Wednesday as yields on long government bonds retreated from 16-year highs, helping lift the S&P 500 to its best day in three weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Index
    SPX,
    +0.81%

    gained about 125 points, or 0.4%, ending near 33,128, according to preliminary FactSet data. The boost, however, failed to push the blue-chip index back into the green for the year, a day after its gains for 2023 were erased. The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.81%

    rose 0.8%, marking its biggest daily climb since September 14, according to FactSet data. The Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    +1.35%

    shot up 1.4%. U.S. bond yields have surged since late September when the Federal Reserve indicated that rates likely will stay higher for longer than initially anticipated as it works to keep inflation in check. The sharp bond-market repricing has made buyers reluctant to step in, sending yields higher and creating ripples in financial markets. The 10-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.739%

    fell 6.6 basis points Wednesday to 4.735%, while the 30-year Treasury yield
    TMUBMUSD30Y,
    4.868%

    shed 6 basis points to 4.876%, after briefly topping 5% late Tuesday. Investors remain focused on political upheaval in Washington and the prospect of a November government shutdown. Friday also brings the monthly jobs report for September, which is expected to show a cooling labor market, but still a low 3.7% unemployment rate.

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