ReportWire

Tag: Commercial Banking

  • Big Tech earnings have been strong, but Apple is about to answer the thousand-dollar question

    Big Tech earnings have been strong, but Apple is about to answer the thousand-dollar question

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    While the stock market reactions may not prove it, Big Tech is four-for-four so far this earnings reporting season.

    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    -0.03%

    GOOGL,
    -0.09%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +6.83%
    ,
    Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +2.91%

    and Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +0.59%

    all beat earnings and revenue expectations for the latest quarter, showing, among other things that the advertising market was healthy in the latest quarter and that software spending is holding up.

    But one more major test looms in the week ahead. Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.80%

    is due to deliver September-quarter results on Thursday and those earnings will answer a key question: Are consumers still so willing to purchase thousand-dollar iPhones in the current economy?

    Results from other companies in recent weeks have painted a mixed picture of consumer spending. Visa Inc.
    V,
    -0.87%
    ,
    Mastercard Inc.
    MA,
    -0.14%

    and American Express Co.
    AXP,
    -1.42%

    say that spending remains resilient, but there are also signs that cracks are starting to form in categories deemed non-essential. Just look at Align Technology Inc.
    ALGN,
    +0.20%
    ,
    the maker of Invisalign orthodontic aligners, which saw its stock plunge last week after noting that people seem to be putting off dental and orthodontic visits.

    Read: Invisalign maker’s stock craters after soft earnings, but analysts still say it’s a buy

    Granted, some might say that iPhones are glorified necessities these days for Apple fans, even with their high price tags. But Apple conducted an effective price increase on its iPhone 15 Pro model when it rolled out its new phones in September, all while delivering a mostly incremental suite of feature upgrades across all its latest models. Will the new phones prove enticing enough in a period of stretched budgets?

    Just judging by S&P 500
    SPX
    results so far in the aggregate, the odds would seem to be in Apple’s favor for a beat this quarter. About half of index components have already reported, and 78% have posted earnings upside, while 62% have surprised positively on the top line, according to FactSet.

    Revenue will be the key item for Apple, as consensus expectations call for a small decline on the metric, which would mark the fourth consecutive year-over-year drop. It’s also worth noting that companies on the whole haven’t been topping revenue estimates by their usual margin. S&P 500 components in aggregate have reported revenue 0.8% above expectations, which compares with a five-year average of 2.0%, FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters wrote in a recent report.

    Apple’s report could also highlight the impact of currency on corporate results, as the company generates more than half of its revenue internationally.

    “Given the stronger U.S. dollar in recent months, are S&P 500 companies with more international revenue exposure reporting lower (year-over-year) earnings and revenues for Q3 compared to S&P 500 companies with more domestic revenue exposure?” Butters asked. “The answer is yes.”

    This week in earnings

    Many U.S. investors in financial-technology companies likely hadn’t heard of European payments player Worldline SA
    WLN,
    +9.06%

    before last week, but a warning from the French company about deteriorating conditions in Europe helped send shares of PayPal Holdings Inc.
    PYPL,
    -2.63%

    and Block Inc.
    SQ,
    -3.98%

    sharply lower Wednesday, in a selloff one analyst deemed an overreaction. Those companies will look to reassure Wall Street about the health of their businesses with their own reports this week. Plus, while not a payments name, SoFi Technologies Inc.
    SOFI,
    -0.43%

    will provide another read on the fintech sector. Investors will be watching to see how the end of the student-loan moratorium impacted student lending volumes.

    The week ahead will also shed light on how consumers’ dining preferences have evolved in the current economy. Starbucks Corp.
    SBUX,
    -0.70%
    ,
    Dine Brands Global Inc.
    DIN,
    -0.12%
    ,
    Cheesecake Factory Inc.
    CAKE,
    -0.47%

    and Sweetgreen Inc.
    SG,
    +0.59%

    are among names on the docket. Plus, amid concerns about the impact of GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy on eating habits, Kraft Heinz Co.’s management will be in the spotlight.

    Don’t miss: What exactly are patients taking new weight-loss drugs eating and what are they avoiding? Bernstein asked them.

    The call to put on your calendar

    You can’t spell Advanced Micro Devices without AI (sort of): Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +0.43%

    has been ruling the chip world this year thanks to its dominance with the sort of hardware needed to power the corporate AI fervor. Investors will be watching Tuesday afternoon to see how quickly Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s
    AMD,
    +2.95%

    own AI story is coming together. “The AMD narrative feels all about their data center (and, particularly, their AI story) right now,” Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon wrote in a note to clients. “In the near term the achievability of their 2H data-center growth (guided to 50% half-over-half) will be the question.” Rasgon expects AMD to discuss recent customer wins for its MI300X chip, though he thinks it will take time for the company to see “real volume.”

    The number to watch

    PayPal transaction margins: Shares of the one-time investor darling are trading at their lowest levels since May 2017, and the latest source of anguish for Wall Street is the company’s transaction margins. PayPal’s lower-margin unbranded checkout business has been growing more quickly than its higher-margin branded checkout product, a trend that’s been weighing on overall transaction margins. Barclays analyst Ramsey El-Assal expects the third quarter to mark a bottom on the metric before trends stabilize in the fourth quarter. “We do not believe the stock is crowded on the long or short side into earnings, as investors lack conviction regarding the magnitude of transaction margin headwinds in Q3,” he wrote in a recent preview. “In any case, we view Q3 as a potential clearing event.” PayPal posts results Wednesday afternoon.

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  • Why Cullen/Frost remains full speed ahead on growth

    Why Cullen/Frost remains full speed ahead on growth

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    Cullen/Frost continues to expand in Dallas, Houston and Austin, citing what CEO Phil Green describes as a booming Texas economy.

    Adobe Stock

    Cullen/Frost Bankers continues to invest in growth — amid what its CEO describes as a booming Texas economy — even as many other banks are tightening their purse strings.

    The San Antonio bank reported a 14% year-over-year increase in noninterest expenses during the third quarter. Total average loans climbed by 7%.

    Cullen/Frost remains “laser-focused on our efforts to achieve organic growth,” CEO Phil Green told analysts on Thursday.

    In an interview, Green said the bank’s rising expenses represent investments in growth. “We’re not trying to be successful by shrinking,” he said. “We’re not trying to save our way into prosperity.”

    Cullen/Frost’s strategy is based on strong client demand in the Lone Star State, Green said.

    “We’re in Texas, which is a great market to be in right now,” he said in the interview. “It’s hard to envision a better business environment.”

    While Texas has a 4.1% unemployment rate, a bit higher than the 3.8% national average, the state’s gross domestic product grew by 3% during the first quarter compared with 1.1% for the overall U.S. economy.

    The Dallas and Houston markets have been one focus of Cullen/Frost’s expansion efforts.

    Deposits in Houston totaled $1.4 billion at the end of the third quarter, a 40% increase from the same period last year, according to company disclosures. Meanwhile, loans in Houston topped $1 billion last quarter, up 31% from the year-ago period.

    In Dallas, Cullen/Frost had $325 million in deposits at the end of the third quarter, up from $261 million at the end of the second quarter, according to the company’s disclosures. And the bank added more than $40 million in loans in Dallas during the third quarter.

    The parent company of Frost Bank is also expanding in Austin. It has previously announced plans to open 17 new financial centers in the region, and add 170 new jobs, over the next three years.

    Numerous other banks have announced cost-cutting plans in recent weeks, including Truist Financial, which plans to cut costs by $750 million over the next 12 to 18 months. PNC Financial Services Group said it will reduce 4% of its workforce in an effort to curtail expenses by $325 million and improve profitability next year.

    Many bankers are expressing pessimism about the outlook for loan demand over the next 12 months. But Green said that the economic outlook looks positive, arguing that there could be “more worry than there are actual problems today.”

    During the third quarter, total average loans at Cullen/Frost grew to $18 billion, up from $16.8 billion in the same period last year.

    “Loan growth was much stronger than expected,” Compass Point Research & Trading analyst David Rochester wrote in a note to clients.

    Going into the third quarter, Rochester anticipated that Cullen/Frost’s loan demand had weakened. He said that the strong growth was likely bolstered by the closing of loans that were in the pipeline during the second quarter, as well as by a slowdown in paydowns of real estate loans.

    During the third quarter, noninterest expenses of $293 million were up from $258 million in the second quarter of 2022. Green said that Cullen/Frost “generally operates tightly on expenses,” but he noted that higher costs could continue into next year amid the bank’s continued expansion.

    Cullen/Frost also expressed optimism about deposit trends. Its total average deposits declined by 11% year over year to $41 billion. But so far in the fourth quarter, there are signs of stabilization, according to Chief Financial Officer Jerry Salinas.

    “I don’t know if I can confidently say that we’re at the bottom, but I certainly feel a whole lot better today than I did a quarter ago,” Salinas told analysts during the company’s earnings call.

    The company reported net income of $156 million during the third quarter, which was down 8% from the same period last year. Net interest income of $407 million was up 7% from the year-ago period.

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    Jordan Stutts

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  • Barclays 3Q Rev GBP6.258B

    Barclays 3Q Rev GBP6.258B

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    By Elena Vardon

    Barclays lowered its U.K. net interest margin guidance for 2023 as it posted third-quarter results.

    The British bank on Tuesday said its now expects its net interest margin for Barclays U.K. to come between 3.05% and 3.10%. It had guided for a 2023 margin of no more than 3.20% at its half-year results in July with a view of around 3.15%.

    The lender said its net interest margin for the three months ended Sept. 30 was 3.04%, following a 3.22% margin for the second quarter.

    Write to Elena Vardon at elena.vardon@wsj.com

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  • Bucking the trend, Huntington forecasts higher expenses, eyes growth

    Bucking the trend, Huntington forecasts higher expenses, eyes growth

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    Huntington Bancshares, which reported a 4% increase in noninterest expenses between July and September, is forecasting a 4%-5% increase in the fourth quarter, and for growth to carry over into next year.

    Emily Elconin/Bloomberg

    Huntington Bancshares won’t be entering 2024 in a defensive crouch. 

    Steve Steinour, the $186.7 billion-asset regional bank’s chairman and CEO, acknowledged gathering economic storm clouds on Friday, saying that higher credit losses are likely next year. Still, he believes that now is the right time to “play offense,” as he put it on a conference call with analysts.

    “There are moments to take advantage, and this is one of them,” Steinour said on the hour-long call.

    The Columbus, Ohio-based bank plans to add commercial bankers, expand its capital markets and wealth management business lines and continue investing in digital banking offerings. “We think we’re in a very strong position to be aggressive when most banks cannot or will not,” Steinour said in an interview prior to the conference call.

    Huntington reported noninterest expenses totaling $1.1 billion for the quarter ending Sept. 30, up 4% on both a linked-quarter and year-over-year basis. It’s forecasting a 4%-5% increase in the fourth quarter, with growth carrying over into 2024.

    Steinour’s comments come as a number of larger rivals in the regional bank space have announced aggressive plans to cut costs in an effort to become leaner and more efficient as the economy cools.

    The $543 billion-asset Truist Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, has been working feverishly to reduce expenses since unveiling a $750 million cost-cutting campaign in September. Last week, the $557-billion-asset, Pittsburgh-based PNC Financial Services Group said it would trim its workforce by 4% in an effort to slash $325 million from its expense base.

    Huntington, too, is pursuing cost savings. The company expects to consolidate some office space and shutter 34 branches in the first quarter of 2024. The branch closures reflect the ongoing shift in customer preferences to online and mobile platforms.

    “Over half of our customers interact with us via a digital channel,” Steinour said on the call. “They can bank with us in a branch if they choose, but more and more of them are getting used to using digital channels. That means we can thin the [branch] network out.”

    Huntington is switching to growth mode at a time when its customer base is exhibiting what Steinour calls “underlying strength,” and despite what he sees as warning signs about the economy. “Conditions are softening,” said Steinour, who has led Huntington since January 2009. “I think there will be higher losses and a tougher credit environment at some point.”

    “We’ve been in a recession-readiness plan now for a year,” Steinour added. “Obviously we’ve been wrong.”

    If the economy does turn south in 2024, Huntington “will be playing from a position of strength,” Chief Financial Officer Zach Wasserman said on the conference call. To conserve capital, Huntington paused share buybacks earlier this year, a policy that remains in effect. It has also maintained its allowance for credit losses at an elevated level, 1.96% on Sept. 30.

    Both Steinour and Wasserman said growing capital is a paramount priority as Huntington heads into 2024. Adjusted to reflect the impact of other comprehensive income, Huntington’s Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio stood at 8% on Sept. 30, more than enough to qualify the bank as well capitalized, but below its target level of 9% to 10%.

    “We want to drive capital higher toward our goal,” Wasserman said. 

    While Huntington recorded an uptick in problem loans and charge-offs in the third quarter, both metrics remained low by historical levels. Nonperforming assets jumped six basis points on a linked-quarter basis to 0.52% of total assets on Sept. 30, though the ratio was level with the results from the third quarter of 2022 and down dramatically from Sept. 30, 2021.

    Similarly, while increased from June 30, 2023 levels, Huntington’s third-quarter net charge-off ratio of 0.24% of total loans remained slightly below the low end of its target range of 25 to 45 basis points. 

    “I think what you’re seeing is a bounce off a very low bottom,” Deputy Chief Credit Officer Brendan Lawlor said on the conference call. 

    Huntington reported third-quarter net income of $547 million on Friday, down 8% from the same period in 2022. The decline was primarily reflective of a $760 million year-over-year increase in interest expenses.

    Huntington’s deposits totaled $148.9 billion on Sept. 30, up 1.8% year over year. The bank is expecting a further 1% increase in the fourth quarter. Similarly, it is predicting a 1% increase in loans, which totaled $120.8 billion on Sept. 30.

    “We’re growing loans,” Steinour said. “We’re not trying to shrink our way to higher equity.”

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    John Reosti

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  • Profits soar at JPMorgan, Wells Fargo as they defy deposit pressures

    Profits soar at JPMorgan, Wells Fargo as they defy deposit pressures

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    Megabanks like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have an edge in net interest income over their regional-bank rivals, according to Brian Mulberry at Zacks Investment Management.  “If it’s David versus Goliath, Goliath is only getting bigger, and it seems like they’re winning more at this point in time,” he says.

    Bloomberg

    Two of the country’s biggest banks continue to rake in profits as the costs of their deposits rise less than expected, but it’s unclear how long the good times will last, or whether smaller competitors can pull off the same trick.

    During the third quarter at JPMorgan Chase, net interest income increased 30% year over year, while it rose by 8% at Wells Fargo, as the interest the two megabanks charged on loans outstripped what they had to pay their depositors.

    But executives at both companies were uncertain about whether their outperformance will continue, underlining an industrywide challenge if interest rates stay high longer than previously anticipated.

    “We’re all in a bit of uncharted territory at this point with rates being where they are and the pace at which they got there,” Michael Santomassimo, chief financial officer at the $1.9 trillion-asset Wells Fargo, said Friday on an earnings call.

    Interest expenses in the banking industry have jumped sharply, thanks to the Federal Reserve hiking rates from near 0% to more than 5% since March 2022. JPMorgan and Wells haven’t been immune to rising deposit costs, but the two banking giants have been able to keep a tighter lid on them than some competitors.

    Still, JPMorgan Chase CFO Jeremy Barnum said Friday that the $3.9 trillion-asset bank has been “cautious about recognizing” that current levels of deposit costs don’t seem sustainable.

    The growing likelihood of the Fed keeping rates higher for longer has clouded the profitability outlook for banks of all sizes — an issue that analysts will watch closely when regional banks begin to report their earnings next week. Industrywide net interest income is expected to decline in 2024 before picking back up in 2025, according to Jefferies research published this week.

    Stronger-than-expected net interest income figures at JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo helped boost their stock prices on Friday by 1.50% and 2.99%, respectively. Shares in Citigroup, which reported a 10% pickup in net interest income, were roughly flat on Friday. Bank of America, the other of the four largest U.S. banks, is scheduled to report results on Tuesday.

    Pittsburgh-based PNC Financial Services Group on Friday reported slightly lower net interest income for the third quarter, and its stock price fell by 2.62%. Executives at the $557 billion-asset bank said deposit-cost pressures have slowed, but they noted that the outlook on Fed policy is unclear. PNC said Friday its layoffs reported this week would affect about 4%, or 2,400, of its more than 60,000 employees.

    JPMorgan revised higher its estimate of full-year net interest income, a key revenue driver in 2023. America’s largest bank now expects $88.5 billion of net interest income, up more than $2 billion from guidance released earlier this year.

    While big banks are enjoying net interest income strength, analysts expect the comparable figures at regional banks to come under pressure in the coming months, thanks in part to rising deposit costs. Net interest income measures the difference between a bank’s lending revenue and its deposit costs.

    Megabanks have more diversified streams of revenue than their smaller competitors, plus a broader footprint to pull in deposits, said Brian Mulberry, a portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management. 

    “If it’s David versus Goliath, Goliath is only getting bigger, and it seems like they’re winning more at this point in time,” Mulberry said.

    Still, even the largest banks have been forced to pay customers higher interest rates on deposit accounts. During the third quarter, interest expenses at JPMorgan rose 170% from the same period a year earlier to $21.8 billion. At Wells Fargo, interest-related expenses totaled nearly $9 billion between July and September, 275% higher than in the third quarter of 2022.

    Total profit at JPMorgan rose 35% year over year to $13.2 billion in the third quarter. Wells Fargo’s earnings increased 61% from the third quarter of 2022, when it reported unusually high expenses tied to its regulatory troubles, to $5.8 billion in the latest quarter. At JPMorgan, revenue increased 22% to $39.9 billion during the same period, while it rose 7% to $20.9 billion at Wells.

    JPMorgan said that its purchase of part of First Republic Bank drove about $1.1 billion of profit and $2.2 billion in revenue during the third quarter. But it also said that those metrics would have risen even without the acquisition, which was arranged by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. after First Republic failed.

    Growing credit card balances helped drive loan growth at JPMorgan, which saw an 18% increase in total loans. Wells Fargo, which has been revamping its credit card portfolio under CEO Charlie Scharf, also reported double-digit growth in its consumer card business. In the San Francisco bank’s auto and home lending portfolios — two areas where it has been scaling back — loan volumes declined.

    Wells Fargo’s overall loan totals were down slightly from the third quarter of last year, with Scharf citing weaker loan demand and tighter underwriting criteria amid a more uncertain economic outlook.

    The economic environment will drive the direction of loan growth moving forward, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on a call with analysts.

    “Depending on what you believe about a soft landing, mild recession, no landing, you have slightly lower or slightly higher loan growth,” Dimon said. “But in any case, I would expect it to be relatively muted.”

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    Orla McCaffrey

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  • Citi CEO pledges ‘relentless execution’ of restructuring plan

    Citi CEO pledges ‘relentless execution’ of restructuring plan

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    Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser told analysts Friday that the megabank is doing what it has pledged to do to achieve a turnaround. “We don’t pretend we’re at the end of the road there — we’re not there yet — but we’re getting done what we said we’d do and building up those proof points so that you can see us achieve those return targets,” she said.

    Valerie Plesch/Photographer: Valerie Plesch/Blo

    Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser had a clear message Friday for skeptics of the megabank’s massive organizational overhaul and its ambitious financial targets: We won’t quit until it’s all done.

    The restructuring plan she laid out last month, her biggest move to date as CEO, is different from prior restructuring plans at Citi because it will fundamentally change how the company operates, she said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call. And that will lead to improved efficiency across the company and higher returns for shareholders, she said.

    For years, the company’s profitability metrics have trailed its big-bank peers. Under Fraser’s guidance, the company is aiming for an efficiency ratio of less than 60%, a common equity tier 1 capital ratio of 11.5% to 12% and a return on tangible common equity ratio of 11% to 12%.

    “This is a relentless execution,” she told analysts. “We’re getting a lot done. We don’t pretend we’re at the end of the road there — we’re not there yet — but we’re getting done what we said we’d do and building up those proof points so that you can see us achieve those return targets.”

    It’s been exactly one month since Fraser unveiled the organizational revamp. It is designed to give her more control over Citi’s five core businesses, while also cutting out management layers, eliminating duplicative workstreams and speeding up the company’s decision-making.

    The leaders of the five core businesses — markets, business banking, wealth management, U.S. personal banking as well as treasury, trade and securities services — now report directly to Fraser and belong to the executive management team. 

    The overhaul, which coincides with Citi’s exit from 14 overseas consumer franchise businesses, is set to include huge job cuts, including the elimination of certain regional managers. Citi completed the sale of its consumer business in Taiwan in the third quarter, and last week it confirmed that it would sell its consumer wealth management unit in China to HSBC.

    Details about how many jobs are being axed, and how much the company will save by doing so, will be shared in January during Citi’s fourth-quarter earnings call, Fraser said. She reiterated that the changes will “cascade” through the company “at pace,” with the reductions of the top two layers of management taking place in September, the next set of reductions rolling out around mid-November and the remaining eliminations to be implemented by early next year.

    Cost-cutting isn’t a major driver for the overhaul, but the changes will help with “bending the expense curve” by late 2024, Fraser said. “And at the end of the work, we will have a simpler firm that can operate faster, better serve our clients and unlock value for our shareholders.”

    The company has reduced headcount by about 7,000 so far this year, bringing year-to-date severance charges to around $600 million, Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason said Friday. He declined to say how many total employees Citi aims to have after the reorganization, but he did note that the company’s ongoing risk management transformation will eliminate jobs as well.

    As of Dec. 31, 2022, Citi employed about 240,000 people, according to a regulatory filing.

    Citi has been engaged in the transformation for three years now, following a pair of consent orders imposed by the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Both regulators identified deficiencies in Citi’s risk management and compliance systems.

    For the third quarter, Citi spent about $3 billion on technology, Mason noted.

    “Undoubtedly the technology investment, the automation that we’re putting in place, the straight-through processing that occurs, the fewer reconciliations that are required, the streamlining from all of those layers that Jane mentioned we’ll be eliminating, all of those things will also work to reduce headcount as well,” Mason said. “So while we’re investing and hiring on the front end to capture the upside as markets turn [and] also as we position ourselves to grow with clients, we’re also going to realize efficiencies that come out of headcount reduction.”

    On Friday, Citi reaffirmed its full-year guidance on revenues and expenses. The $2.4 trillion-asset company expects revenues to land somewhere between $78 billion and $79 billion, while expenses should total around $54 billion. It increased its guidance for net interest income to at least $47.5 billion, excluding markets, based on real and projected interest rate trends.

    Citi reported net income of $3.5 billion and earnings per share of $1.63 for the third quarter, which topped the average estimate of $1.23 from analysts surveyed by FactSet Research Systems.

    Citi’s stock price is down about 8% for the year. It closed Friday roughly flat for the day.

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    Allissa Kline

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  • Layoffs at PNC cut across business lines and geography

    Layoffs at PNC cut across business lines and geography

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    Earlier this year, PNC said that it would reduce expenses by $400 million throughout the course of 2023. Then in July, company executives said that they had identified an additional $50 million worth of expense savings.

    Sergio Flores/Bloomberg

    PNC Financial Services Group laid off employees across both its geographic footprint and its business lines this week, the latest example of downsizing in the U.S. banking industry.

    The Pittsburgh-based bank joins a growing list of banks, credit unions and fintech companies that have cut employees in 2023. BMO Financial Group, Wells Fargo and USAA cut hundreds of workers in July and August amid declining prospects for short-term growth in the financial sector.

    PNC issued a statement acknowledging the job cuts, and saying that as part of its focus on managing expenses it is shifting “away from work that is not fully aligned to our strategic priorities.” The $558-billion asset bank did not say how many employees received pink slips.

    “While these decisions are never easy, we believe these measures will help us more effectively and efficiently deliver for our customers and stakeholders, now and going forward,” PNC said.

    Analysts at Autonomous Research said in a research note Wednesday that they expect PNC to announce a “structural expense program” during the bank’s third-quarter earnings call this Friday.

    Some of the PNC employees who were told this week that they were no longer needed were hired as recently as July, according to their LinkedIn profiles. Others built their careers at BBVA, the U.S. arm of Spanish banking giant Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, which was acquired by PNC in 2020.

    Corporate employees in Pittsburgh, Raleigh, North Carolina, and Birmingham, Alabama, among other U.S. cities, were laid off. The layoffs included workers in the bank’s commercial lending and anti-money laundering departments, according to a review of LinkedIn posts by affected employees.

    One laid-off PNC employee said that she was invited to a video meeting on Tuesday morning, where she learned her last day at the bank would be Dec. 1. Employees on the call were muted, and a senior manager ended the call without taking questions, she said.

    The employee, who works on business technology and innovation initiatives for PNC, said that prior to the meeting, there were no indications that cuts to her team were coming.

    In July, PNC laid off workers in its home equity and mortgage businesses. Also that month, CEO Bill Demchak told analysts that the bank was “taking a hard look at opportunities for even further expense improvements across the franchise.”

    Early in 2023, PNC said it would reduce expenses by $400 million throughout the course of the year. Executives said in July that they had identified an additional $50 million worth of expense savings for a total of $450 million. It is unclear whether the additional $50 million included employee layoffs.

    During the second quarter, noninterest expenses at PNC totaled $3.4 billion, up 4% from the year prior. Chief Financial Officer Robert Reilly cited inflationary pressures and a challenging revenue environment as obstacles to keeping expenses under control during the bank’s second-quarter earnings call in July.

    PNC reported total revenue of $5.3 billion in the second quarter, up 3.5% from the year-ago period.

    A clearer picture of the size of the bank’s most recent workforce reduction will likely come into focus on Friday. PNC counted 60,301 employees at the end of June, according to regulatory filings. That was down from 61,127 a year prior. 

    The layoffs came days after PNC agreed to buy a portfolio worth $16.6 billion from Signature Bridge Bank via the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Neither party disclosed the purchase price of the portfolio, which could help bolster the bank’s fund banking business.

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    Orla McCaffrey

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  • ‘Banks fail. It’s OK,’ says former FDIC chair Sheila Bair.

    ‘Banks fail. It’s OK,’ says former FDIC chair Sheila Bair.

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    Higher interest rates may be painful in the short term, but banks, savers and the financial ecosystem will be better off in the long run, said Sheila Bair, former chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

    “When money is free, you squander it,” Bair said in an interview with MarketWatch. “It’s like anything. If it doesn’t cost you anything, you’re going to value it less. And we’ve had free money for quite some time now.”

    Bair, who led the FDIC from 2006 to 2011, caused a stir recently in criticizing “moonshots,” the crypto industry and “useless innovations” like Bored Ape NFTs, which proliferated because of speculation and near-zero interest rates.

    Her main message has been that the path to higher rates, while potentially “tricky,” ultimately will lead to a more stable financial system, where “truly promising innovations will attract capital” and where savers can actually save.

    Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair was dubbed “the little guy’s protector in chief” by Time Magazine in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis.

    Bair sat down for an interview with Barron’s Live, MarketWatch edition, to talk about the ripple effects of higher rates, what could trigger another financial crisis and why more regional banks sitting on unrealized losses could fail in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in March.

    “We probably will have more bank failures,” Bair said. “But you know what? Banks fail. It’s OK. The system goes on. It’s important for people to understand that households stay below the insured deposit caps.”

    The FDIC insures bank deposits up to $250,000 per account. It also has overseen 565 bank failures since 2001.

    “I know borrowing costs are going up, but your rewards for saving it are going up too,” she said. “I think that’s a very good thing.”

    However, Bair isn’t focused only on money traps and pitfalls for grown-ups. She also has two new picture books coming out that aim to explain big financial themes to young readers, including where easy-money ways, speculation and inflation come from.

    “One thing that I’ve learned from the kids is to not ask them what a loan is, because when I did that, a little hand when up, and she said: ‘That’s when you’re by yourself,’” Bair said.

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  • 1970s-style stagflation may be at risk of repeating itself, Deutsche Bank warns

    1970s-style stagflation may be at risk of repeating itself, Deutsche Bank warns

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    A major Wall Street bank is warning about the risk that inflation expectations could become unanchored in a fashion similar to the 1970s stagflation era.

    Weekend attacks on Israel by Hamas illustrate how geopolitical risks can suddenly return — adding to the surprise shocks of the current decade, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said macro strategist Henry Allen and research analyst Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank
    DB,
    -1.40%
    .

    Read: Questions emerge over how Israeli intelligence missed Hamas attack

    Oil prices settled more than 4% higher on Monday as traders weighed the impact of the war in the Middle East on crude supplies. The spike in energy prices is adding to the growing list of similarities to the 1970s era — which also includes consistently above-target inflation across major economies and repeated optimism about how quickly it would fall; strikes by workers; and even increasing chances that this winter will be dominated by the El Niño weather pattern, similar to what took place in 1971 and which is historically tied to higher commodity prices, according to Deutsche Bank.

    Inflation remains above central banks’ targets in every G-7 country — the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. How long it will remain high is one of the most important questions facing financial markets, and a destabilization of expectations would make it even harder for policy makers to restore price stability.

    “So given inflation is still above its pre-pandemic levels, it is important not to get complacent about its path,” Allen and Ainsworth-Grace wrote in a note released on Monday. “After all, if there is another shock and inflation remains above target into a third or even a fourth year, it is increasingly difficult to imagine that long-term expectations will repeatedly stay lower than actual inflation.”

    History indicates that the last mile of inflation is often the hardest. One of the key lessons of the 1970s was that inflation failed to return to previous levels after the first oil shock of 1973 and U.S. recession of 1973-1975, and went even higher following a second oil shock in 1979. Now that inflation has been above target for the last two years, “a fresh inflationary spike could well lead expectations to become unanchored,” according to the Deutsche Bank note.


    Source: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank

    For now, the public’s inflation expectations, as measured by a New York Fed survey of consumers in August, remain largely stable, though still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

    The current period differs from the 1970s era in a number of ways, the Deutsche Bank team also points out. Long-term inflation expectations remain “impressively” well-anchored, commodity prices have fallen substantially from their peaks over the past 12 to 18 months, and supply-chain disruptions that emerged during the pandemic have “broadly healed.” In addition, the U.S. is less energy intensive than in the past and less susceptible to damage from a 1970s-style energy shock.

    Even so, “it is vitally important to avoid complacency,” Allen and Ainsworth-Grace wrote. “Indeed, with the benefit of hindsight, one of the mistakes of the 1970s was that policy was eased up too early, which contributed to a resurgence in inflation.”

    Risk-off sentiment prevailed in financial markets during the early part of Monday, before stocks turned higher during the New York afternoon. All three major U.S. stock indexes
    DJIA

    SPX

    COMP
    finished higher in a volatile session. Trading in U.S. government-debt futures reflected greater demand and gold rallied as a flight to safety took hold. The cash market for Treasurys was closed for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day.

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  • 5Qs With… Citizens Bank’s Jo Wyper | Bank Automation News

    5Qs With… Citizens Bank’s Jo Wyper | Bank Automation News

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    Citizens Bank has been exploring multiple uses for AI as it looks to enhance its digital channels and improve customer offerings.  The $222 billion bank is working to roll out its virtual assistant for commercial banking clients on mobile this quarter with a goal to ultimately adding generative AI capabilities to the chatbot, Jo Wyper, […]

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    Vaidik Trivedi

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  • 1970’s-style stagflation may be at risk of repeating itself, bank warns

    1970’s-style stagflation may be at risk of repeating itself, bank warns

    [ad_1]

    A major Wall Street bank is warning about the risk that inflation expectations could become unanchored in a fashion similar to the 1970s stagflation era.

    Weekend attacks on Israel by Hamas illustrate how geopolitical risks can suddenly return — adding to the surprise shocks of the current decade, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said macro strategist Henry Allen and research analyst Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank
    DB,
    -1.45%
    .

    Read: Questions emerge over how Israeli intelligence missed Hamas attack

    Oil prices jumped by more than 4% on Monday as traders weighed the impact of the war in the Middle East on crude supplies. The spike in energy is adding to the growing list of similarities to the 1970s era — which also includes consistently above-target inflation across major economies and repeated optimism about how quickly it would fall; strikes by workers; and even increasing chances that this winter will be dominated by the El Niño weather pattern, similar to what took place in 1971 and which is historically tied to higher commodity prices, according to Deutsche Bank.

    Inflation remains above central banks’ targets in every Group-of-7 country — the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. How long it will remain high is one of the most important questions facing financial markets, and a destabilization of expectations would make it even harder for policy makers to restore price stability.

    “So given inflation is still above its pre-pandemic levels, it is important not to get complacent about its path,” Allen and Ainsworth-Grace wrote in a note released on Monday. “After all, if there is another shock and inflation remains above target into a third or even a fourth year, it is increasingly difficult to imagine that long-term expectations will repeatedly stay lower than actual inflation.”

    History indicates that the last mile of inflation is often the hardest. One of the key lessons of the 1970s was that inflation failed to return to previous levels after the first oil shock of 1973 and U.S. recession of 1973-1975, and went even higher following a second oil shock in 1979. Now that inflation has been above target for the last two years, “a fresh inflationary spike could well lead expectations to become unanchored,” according to the Deutsche Bank note.


    Source: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank

    For now, the public’s inflation expectations, as measured by a New York Fed survey of consumers in August, remain largely stable, though still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

    The current period differs from the 1970s era in a number of ways, the Deutsche Bank team also points out. Long-term inflation expectations remain “impressively” well-anchored, commodity prices have fallen substantially from their peaks over the past 12 to 18 months, and supply-chain disruptions that emerged during the pandemic have “broadly healed.” In addition, the U.S. is less energy intensive than in the past and less susceptible to damage from a 1970s-style energy shock.

    Even so, “it is vitally important to avoid complacency,” Allen and Ainsworth-Grace wrote. “Indeed, with the benefit of hindsight, one of the mistakes of the 1970s was that policy was eased up too early, which contributed to a resurgence in inflation.”

    Risk-off sentiment prevailed in financial markets on Monday, with all three major U.S. stock indexes
    DJIA

    SPX

    COMP
    down in New York afternoon trading. Trading in U.S. government-debt futures reflected greater demand and gold rallied as a flight to safety took hold. The cash market for Treasurys was closed for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day.

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  • Banks’ insurance units are fetching top dollar, but selling brings risk

    Banks’ insurance units are fetching top dollar, but selling brings risk

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    Since last fall, M&T Bank, Truist Financial and Eastern Bancshares have sold all or part of their insurance subsidiaries. The question now is whether other banks will follow suit.

    Bloomberg

    There was a time when banks were scrambling to establish insurance subsidiaries as a way to generate fee income. But these days, many of those same banks are rethinking their strategy.

    Last fall, M&T Bank in Buffalo, New York, agreed to sell its insurance agency for an undisclosed sum to Arthur J. Gallagher, a global insurance firm that’s embarked on an agency buying spree. In February, Truist Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, sold one-fifth of its massive insurance brokerage for $1.95 billion to a private equity firm. And last month, Eastern Bankshares in Boston said it’s selling its entire insurance operation, also to Arthur J. Gallagher, for $510 million in cash.

    Other banks may be considering similar moves. Just a few days after Eastern’s deal was announced, industry publication Inside P&C reported that Cadence Bank in Tupelo, Mississippi, is close to inking a deal to divest its insurance brokerage for around $700 million.

    The decision by some banks to reduce their reliance on insurance revenue, or sell their entire insurance subsidiaries, is a reflection of skyrocketing valuations, banks’ need to rightsize their balance sheets and a desire to focus on their core banking businesses, said Mark Crites, a partner at Reagan Consulting.

    Against the backdrop of higher interest rates, which is squeezing profitability, banks are thinking about how and where to invest their resources, Crites said. And because insurance businesses require substantial investment to gain scale and compete, some banks are deciding to sell. 

    “I think what banks have found … is the investment required today to be relevant in the middle-market insurance landscape has changed and accelerated,” said Crites, whose firm provides merger-and-acquisition advisory, valuation, and strategic consulting services to insurance agents, brokers, and financial institutions.

    “There are lots of big players investing a lot to outcompete those who are not. So banks have to make a decision: Do I invest heavily in resources on the insurance side, or do I invest heavily in my core businesses?”

    The risk for banks that choose to shake off their insurance businesses, which tend to be steady producers of fee income, is that they may not be able to replace the lost revenue. That could be a problem when interest rates fall, analysts warn. When rates are low, banks that lack reliable streams of noninterest income may find it difficult to generate earnings.

    “If you have something that people highly desire, then you’re in a good position to consider selling it,” said John Rodis, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott, where he covers Cadence. “But ultimately, if you decide to pull the trigger, what else do you have to offset that lost revenue?”

    The pairing of banks and insurance agencies took off after the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999. That law, which permitted banks to enter new lines of business such as insurance and securities underwriting, spurred a great deal of merger-and-acquisition activity.

    The rationale was straightforward: Banks and insurance agencies offer financial products to a similar group of customers, which theoretically opens the door for cross-selling opportunities.

    But that theory hasn’t always worked out, according to Crites.

    “While the customers are similar, the business operation of a bank and an insurance brokerage are very different, and the sales tactics are very different,” he said.

    Truist may be the exception. Its insurance division, Truist Insurance Holdings, was established by BB&T Corp., the Winston-Salem, North Carolina, company that merged with Atlanta-based SunTrust Banks in late 2019 to form Truist.

    Crites said that BB&T was more successful than other banks at cross-selling certain products, while at the same letting the insurance business operate without intrusion from the banking side of the company. Today, Truist’s insurance division is one of the largest in the U.S. The company has completed 11 insurance-related acquisitions since 2019.

    Late last year, rumors began circulating that Truist was considering selling a sizable chunk of Truist Insurance. In February, it sold 20% of the business to Stone Point Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. Since then, company executives have said several times that the remaining stake offers flexibility to generate more capital.

    For Truist, an additional sale might “fill a temporary earnings hole,” but over the long run it “may be viewed as a bit short-sighted among investors,” said Terry McEvoy, an analyst at Stephens Research.

    Still, McEvoy questioned whether Truist’s stock price has historically benefited from what he called a very attractive, profitable insurance business. “Given where the stock is now, the answer over time is maybe no,” McEvoy said.

    Shares in Truist are down about 35% so far this year, a sharper decline than the industry average of 24%.

    McEvoy said that the proceeds of a potential sale of its insurance unit could be used to reinvest into Truist’s core business or to restructure its low-yielding securities portfolio. 

    Analysts expressed diverging views about whether more banks will deemphasize the insurance business, or abandon it entirely. Some described the recent deals as one-off transactions, but others said that elevated valuations and the pressure to compete will spur more banks to sell.

    “I think anything could potentially be for sale at the right price,” Rodis said.

    The list of sellers may or may not eventually include Cadence. A spokesperson for the bank declined to comment. The insurance unit provided 34% of Cadence’s noninterest revenue during the second quarter.

    Cadence executives seem receptive to the idea of selling, according to Casey Haire, an analyst at Jefferies. While they like the business overall, CEO Dan Rollins and other Cadence executives have indicated in recent calls that they will “do what’s best for the company,” Haire said.

    “Like Dan Rollins has said, it’s a very nice option to have, and he’s right,” Haire said. “He’s basically saying, ‘If you want it, throw me a big number,’ which is a smart thing to say.”

    Mark Fitzgibbon, an analyst at Piper Sandler, said banks that “wait too long” to sell might miss out on a higher price and then be “stuck with the business” for a longer period of time.

    He predicts that the number of bank-owned insurance agencies will continue to dwindle.

    “I think it was a mad dash to get into it and now, a slow bleed to get out,” he said.

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    Allissa Kline

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  • BBVA to Launch $1.1 Bln Buyback After ECB Approval

    BBVA to Launch $1.1 Bln Buyback After ECB Approval

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    By Adria Calatayud

    Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is launching a share buyback program of up to 1 billion euros ($1.06 billion) after it received authorization from the European Central Bank.

    The Spanish bank said Monday that the buyback program, under which it intends to repurchase up to 564.6 million shares, will start Monday and end no later than September 2024.

    BBVA said in July it had requested ECB authorization to launch a buyback program alongside its second-quarter results.

    Write to Adria Calatayud at adria.calatayud@dowjones.com

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  • Citizens to launch 30 new products | Bank Automation News

    Citizens to launch 30 new products | Bank Automation News

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    Citizens Bank expects to roll out 30 projects in the next nine months as it ramps up generative AI, automation and virtual assistant offerings.   By the second quarter of 2024, the $222 billion, Providence, R.I.-based bank expects to introduce those projects as part of its investment in its commercial banking platform, Jo Wyper, executive […]

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    Vaidik Trivedi

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  • Here’s what Germany should be called instead of the ‘sick man of Europe,’ says Deutsche Bank

    Here’s what Germany should be called instead of the ‘sick man of Europe,’ says Deutsche Bank

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    The hurdles facing Germany’s economy in recent years have been plentiful, but the “sick man of Europe,” label is unfair, say Deutsche Bank strategists, who see promise for investors in the region’s biggest economy.

    Contrary to the rest of the eurozone, Germany has only managed to get back to its pre-COVID growth level, yet a title of “sore athlete” is more accurate, say Maximilian Uleer, head of European equity and cross asset strategy and Carolin Raab, European equity and cross asset strategists, in a note to clients that published Friday.

    “Germany has been facing multiple challenges, from rising energy costs, its high manufacturing exposure, to weak demand from its export destinations. Some of the challenges are ‘homemade’ and might persist, while others could start to unwind and soon turn into opportunities,” the pair said.

    Germany’s economy is the worst-performing of the developed world this year, with both the International Monetary Fund and European Union forecasting contractions in growth.

    Read: Germany’s economy struggles with an energy shock that’s exposing longtime flaws

    But the strategists say economic growth is a poor proxy for German equity performance. The German DAX index
    DX:DAX
    is up 18% since the end of 2019. DAX constituents generate just 18% of their revenues domestically, compared to 22% from the U.S. and 15% from China.

    Across the broader HDAX index of 100 members, manufacturing, information technology and financial services are the main contributors to equity performance. That’s as public services, trade, business services and real estate, all of which contributed significantly to GDP over the past four years, are underrepresented in the indexes.

    Germany has also managed to grow its real GDP by 26% over the past 20 years , and keep its debt-to-GDP ratio stable, while the eurozone (including Germany) has seen that debt ratio climb 30% since 2003. The short term has seen lower growth since COVID-19, and rising leverage owing to fiscal support measures to mitigate the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

    Again, the strategists see a silver lining. “Going forward, in our view, Germany has bigger leeway with regards to its fiscal support capacity, as its absolute debt/GDP ratio remains one of the lowest among the eurozone members,” said Uleer and Raab.


    *Since 2003: Q3 2003-Q2 2023 / since Covid: Q4 2019-Q2 2023. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research 09/20/2023

    Among the country’s big hurdles is rising energy costs, with the pair noting that the country’s net-zero goals are laudable, but pose a “substantial challenge” to its energy-intensive industries. Power prices remain substantially higher than three years ago and are double the cost of those in the U.S.

    Also read: Inside Germany’s industrial-sized effort to wean itself off Putin and Russian natural gas

    “This price differential, combined with stronger fiscal support for energy-intensive companies in the U.S. via the Inflation Reduction Act, weigh on the competitiveness of German corporates,” said the strategists.

    As for opportunities, China’s reopening remains a positive for DAX companies, though that country also seems to be making slow progress. Chinese households are sitting on massive savings still waiting to be spent, said the strategists. They advise investors to wait for data that confirms a stabilization of the country’s bumpy property market before they would turn more positive.

    Overall, Deutsche Bank expects inflation to normalize in the coming 12 months and low growth in 2024, but a rebound in 2025.

    Plus: A 1-liter stein of beer at Munich’s famed Oktoberfest will cost nearly $15 this year

    And what’s priced into the DAX already? Even after a gain of 12% this year so far — French
    FR:PX1
    and Greek stocks
    GR:GD
    — are beating Germany by a respective 20% and 30% — the index is still cheap and trading at a 20% discount to its 10-year average on a forward one-year price/earnings basis. Germany can count on stronger U.S. data, even if Europe continues on a weak path.

    “We expect the DAX to hold up in 2024, and do not forecast the index to underperform, despite lower German GDP growth as compared with the rest of the eurozone,” they said.

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  • ‘Economically invisible’: A banker’s push for better data on Native Americans

    ‘Economically invisible’: A banker’s push for better data on Native Americans

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    “If banks and financial institutions and asset managers don’t see the opportunity here, if they don’t understand how tribes are structured and the industries that they operate in, we’re going to be economically invisible,” says Dawson Her Many Horses (right), who grew up on the Rosebud reservation in South Dakota and is now a Wells Fargo managing director.

    Native American Finance Officers Association

    Dawson Her Many Horses, Wells Fargo’s head of Native American banking, is on a mission to improve the availability of economic data across Indian Country.

    The gaps in data are staggering, hampering the ability of tribes and the U.S. government to track economic outcomes and making it tougher for investors to drive capital into tribal communities.

    Native leaders, the federal government and private sector leaders are all discussing ways to improve data collection and sharing, while recognizing tribes’ sovereignty and ownership over their communities’ data. Her Many Horses, a commercial banker who works with tribes, is playing a central role in thinking through those solutions.

    “If banks and financial institutions and asset managers don’t see the opportunity here, if they don’t understand how tribes are structured and the industries that they operate in, we’re going to be economically invisible,” Her Many Horses said in an interview. “We’re not going to get the capital that we need in our communities.”

    Her Many Horses, who grew up on the Rosebud reservation in South Dakota, has spent roughly two decades working with tribal governments and businesses. He’s helped them issue bonds, get loans to expand their casino operations, diversify their revenue streams and manage their day-to-day cash.

    His role in conversations about tribal data accelerated in 2018, when he joined Wells Fargo and asked for more resources to build the company’s Native American banking business. Executives asked him to put together data outlining the business case.

    “I thought it was a fair question, but I was also a little daunted by it,” Her Many Horses said, pointing to the scant publicly available data and market analyses.

    Her Many Horses and his team tracked down the available data and were ultimately able to paint a picture of Native communities. But the bigger lesson was about how difficult it was to do so — and the fact that it would be even tougher for investors with far less familiarity with tribal communities.

    “How would they even go about it? They probably wouldn’t, right? So that’s where data comes in,” Her Many Horses said.

    A report last year by Wells Fargo and the Boston Consulting Group highlighted the size of the “data desert.” It noted that the country lacks measurements of Native American gross domestic product, wealth and other critical metrics. 

    The report, released in the wake of a pandemic that hit Native communities particularly hard, focused on opportunities to make economies in Indian Country more resilient to downturns. But it also focused on the challenges those communities face, including a “fragmented” capital landscape, subpar broadband access, fewer bank branches and gaps in data.

    While tribal governments can easily track data on their business operations, they aren’t required to share that information, which the report said makes it hard for investors to identify opportunities. In 2020, the lack of publicly available data hampered federal officials’ ability to target aid, according to the report.

    The desire to keep financial information private is understandable, the report said, but a trusted entity could publish aggregate data while respecting tribes’ confidentiality. One example is the annual revenue report from the National Indian Gaming Commission, which regulates tribally owned casinos.

    ‘Open and honest dialogue’

    In the months since the report’s release, “open and honest dialogue” has taken place among tribal leaders, policymakers, researchers and private sector leaders, Her Many Horses said.

    At a November 2022 discussion, participants raised past instances of the federal government and researchers misusing tribal data, according to a summary of the discussion. The Havasupai Indians, for example, won a settlement in 2010 after Arizona State University researchers used DNA samples from tribe members for research that went beyond their original purpose: explaining the prevalence of diabetes within their community.

    But the discussion also found widespread agreement that, when it’s done right, data-sharing can benefit tribal communities. It can help tribes qualify for more federal programs, track economic outcomes and outline the economic impact their communities have on each region of the country.

    “What had begun as a tentative conversation about leveraging tribal data to attract private investment quickly evolved into a deeper, richer and more heartfelt discussion about the ways tribal data can be weaponized by non-Indian stakeholders — or leveraged by tribal citizens to strengthen tribal operations and showcase tribal economic power,” reads a summary of the meeting, which was convened by Wells Fargo and the Aspen Institute Financial Security Program.

    Similar work is taking place at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ Center for Indian Country Development, which analyzes tribal economic data and researches the topic. Native people have analyzed data on the natural world, health and trade “since time immemorial,” Casey Lozar, the center’s director, wrote this year.

    Some tribal data now lives on complex spreadsheets; other data is in stories passed on over generations. But data collection has expanded both within tribes and outside of them — shedding more light on Native businesses, investment opportunities, the availability of credit, housing and other key issues.

    “High-quality intertribal data would complement the lived experience of Indian Country and allow us to pen our own accurate economic narrative,” wrote Lozar, an enrolled member of the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes.

    A ‘fairly unique’ position

    Her Many Horses will continue playing a role in those conversations both at Wells Fargo and at the Aspen Institute, a global think tank where he was recently named a finance leader fellow. Wells recently promoted him to a managing director, which the $1.9 trillion-asset bank said made him one of the first enrolled tribal members in that role at a major U.S. bank.

    Robert Maxim, a senior research associate at the Brookings Institution and a citizen of the Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe, credited Wells Fargo for elevating Her Many Horses to a position that he said appears to be “fairly unique” among big banks.

    “It is still relatively rare for banks to be thinking about Native communities and Indigenous communities,” Maxim said, adding that having Native people in key roles can help lenders understand the nuances of working in those communities.

    “The fact that he’s in the position he’s in, I think, really matters,” added Maxim, whose research has focused on the need for changes to the U.S. census and on labor trend data that shows that Native Americans’ recovery from COVID-19 is far from complete.

    Her Many Horses didn’t intend to work in banking early on. As a child, he said he was often told to “get a law degree so that you can become a better advocate for tribal communities.”

    At Columbia University, he majored in political science. Then, in order to bolster his law school application, he got an internship in Merrill Lynch’s office of the general counsel.

    The internship translated into a permanent job at Merrill Lynch, where he led efforts to develop a companywide Native American market strategy. He’d soon focus specifically on investment banking, helping underwrite Native American casino-related bond issuances.

    “There weren’t any other Native Americans in investment banking” at the time, just before the 2008 financial crisis hit, Her Many Horses said.

    He recalled one pitch meeting where higher-ups at Merrill presented to an East Coast tribe. Her Many Horses had put together the meeting presentation, but he didn’t expect to have to speak up.

    “The treasurer of the tribe who we’re presenting to just looked at me and said, ‘Hey Dawson, what do you think about this deal?’” he recounted.

    Her Many Horses got an M.B.A. from Dartmouth and soon returned to Merrill Lynch — which had by then been folded into Bank of America in a crisis-era deal. He was a senior relationship manager on the casino team, where he continued his prior work and gained more perspective on tribal economic development.

    Wells Fargo hired him in 2018 and promoted him to head of Native American banking in 2021. According to his LinkedIn page, the unit’s revenues have risen considerably in recent years despite two controversies that hurt Wells’ reputation in the Native American market: the bank’s sales practices scandal and its financing of a controversial oil pipeline.

    The bank was facing significant pushback from shareholders, activists and civic leaders over the Dakota Access Pipeline project, while it was also grappling with the fallout of revelations that its employees had opened millions of unauthorized accounts for consumers.

    Dawson said he joined the bank because it’s “important that tribes have banking options.” Most large banks only work with tribal casinos, but Wells Fargo also works with clients such as tribal governments, Alaska Native regional corporations and Alaska Native villages.

    “You can’t say you’re committed to a community if you only do business with a small segment of it,” Her Many Horses said. “I wanted to build a business that our clients and Wells Fargo employees could be proud of.”

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    Polo Rocha

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  • BofA launches AI chatbot functions | Bank Automation News

    BofA launches AI chatbot functions | Bank Automation News

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    TORONTO — Bank of America announced the addition of AI capabilities to its CashPro Chat function at Sibos 2023 Monday, bringing an enhanced user experience to its corporate and commercial clients.  The $3.2 trillion bank’s CashPro Chat now uses the same proprietary technology as the bank’s AI-driven consumer-facing bot Erica, Tom Durkin, global head of […]

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    Whitney McDonald

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  • Santander revamps corporate structure to simplify operations

    Santander revamps corporate structure to simplify operations

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    Banco Santander CEO Hector Grisi wants to simplify the company so it can reach its profitability targets. His overhaul plans will likely reduce management layers and may lead to some job cuts, people familiar with the matter say.

    Paul Hanna/Photographer: Paul Hanna/Bloombe

    Banco Santander overhauled its corporate structure as Chief Executive Officer Hector Grisi seeks to simplify the company’s operations.

    As part of the changes, the Spanish bank is combining individual countries’ retail and commercial banking businesses under a new global unit, which will be headed by Daniel Barriuso, and creating a new digital consumer bank area that will be led by Jose Luis de Mora, Santander said in a statement late Monday. 

    The moves are aimed at simplifying the business and helping the company reach profitability targets. They will likely reduce management layers and may lead to some job cuts, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing nonpublic information.

    The new management structure will result in five units: retail and commercial, digital consumer bank, payments, wealth management and insurance as well as corporate and investment banking.

    The Spanish bank last year named Grisi, who had been running the Mexico business, as the company’s chief executive officer, a role he took on at the start of 2023. A string of hires and management changes followed, including the exit of Antonio Simoes, who had been head of Europe and was seen as a possible CEO candidate. The bank in April hired Christiana Riley, a longtime Deutsche Bank AG executive, as head of its North American and Mexican operations, starting Oct. 1. 

    An expansion into U.S. investment banking is also in the works, tapping several new hires from the ranks of Credit Suisse.

    Santander will align the way it reports financial results to the new model starting in January 2024, with the five global businesses becoming the new primary segments for the group, while country- and region-specific data will become secondary segments, it said.

    Santander’s revamp closely resembles a plan announced last week by Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser. In that company’s biggest restructuring in two decades, Fraser reorganized the firm into five main business and eliminated regional chiefs who oversee operations in about 160 countries. The changes will involve a number of job cuts in Citigroup’s back-office functions.

    Santander adopted a regional approach to managing its business in 2019, and a year later rolled out a ‘One Santander’ strategy, to which chairman Ana Botin often refers. That strategy was aimed at increasing connectivity, the company says on its website.

    With businesses from Spain to the United Kingdom, Brazil and the United States, Banco Santander is one of the largest retail banks in the world. It has about 212,000 employees and a market capitalization of 55.7 billion euros ($59.5 billion). Botin has been executive chairman of the lender since her father died in 2014.

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  • Why the Fed’s next decisions on rates could lead to a wave of commercial-debt defaults

    Why the Fed’s next decisions on rates could lead to a wave of commercial-debt defaults

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    Getting staff back to the office is only part of the battle.

    Regional banks that went big lending on office properties also face a ticking time bomb of maturing debt that they helped create, particularly if the Federal Reserve holds its policy rate near the current 22-year high well into next year.

    “The area of greatest concerns for banks is office space,” says Tom Collins, senior partner focused on regional banks and credit unions at consulting firm firm West Monroe. Should rates stay high, “borrowers are going to face a tough decision of whether they refinance or default,” he said.

    The fight to bring more staff back to half-empty office buildings comes as an estimated $1 trillion wall of commercial real-estate loans is set to mature through 2024. While tenants haven’t shied away from signing up to pay top rents at trophy buildings, the same can’t be said for the rows of lower-rung properties lining financial districts in big cities.

    See: Labor Day is just a ‘milestone’ in the marathon to get workers back to the office

    The Fed embarks on a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with expectations running high for rates to stay steady, giving more time to study the impact of earlier rate increases.

    The central bank’s rate hikes have further complicated matters for landlords, and fresh debt for office buildings no longer looks cheap nor abundant. Regional banks also have been piling back on lending after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed in March and as deposits fled for yield elsewhere.

    Related: FDIC kicks off $33 billion sale of seized assets from Signature Bank

    Loan volumes from Wall Street similarly have been anemic. This year it has produced slightly more than $10 billion in “conduit,” or multi-borrower, commercial mortgage-backed securities deals through the end of August, the least since 2008, according to Goldman Sachs. Coupons, a proxy for mortgage rates, have climbed above 7%, the highest since the early 2000s.

    “I don’t think this is a wash out here,” Collins said of the threat of more regional bank failures, but he does anticipate pain for lenders heavily exposed to lower quality class B and C office buildings in urban areas.

    Banks can help mitigate the wall of debt coming due by stepping up the pace of loan modifications to help borrowers keep properties, but Collins said he also anticipates lenders will need to increase loan sales, write downs and mergers or acquisitions.

    “There is no doubt there will be private equity and other investors that will be interested in buying some of these loans, taking them off the balance sheets of banks,” Collins said.

    “The obvious question there is at what discount?” he said, adding, “I think investors will wait until things get more dire to try to get a better deal.”

    Another offset to banks’ office exposure has been the relatively stable performance of hotels, industrial and other property types. But Collins said that if rates stay high and the economy falters, those sectors are likely to face challenges as well.

    The 10-year Treasury yield,
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    a benchmark lending rate for the commercial real estate industry, was near 4.32% on Monday, hovering around a 16-year high ahead of the Fed meeting, while the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury rate
    BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
    was near 5.06%. Stocks
    SPX

    DJIA
    were edging higher.

    Office distress intensified in August, with the special servicing rate of loans in bond deals hitting 7.72%, compared with a 6.67% rate for all property types, according to Trepp, which tracks the commercial mortgage-backed securities market. A year ago, the rate of problem office loans was 3.18%.

    “If I was an investor, I would be patient around this, because values are only going to come down, I would imagine,” Collins said.

    Check out: Powell could still hammer U.S. stocks on Wednesday even if the Fed doesn’t hike interest rates

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  • Societe Generale Sees Slower Revenue Growth Through 2026

    Societe Generale Sees Slower Revenue Growth Through 2026

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    By Adria Calatayud

    Societe Generale is targeting slower average annual revenue growth between 2022 and 2026 than for the 2021-25 period, and aims to streamline its portfolio and reduce oil-and-gas exposure as part of a new strategy.

    The French bank on Monday outlined its new strategic plan to 2026 that Chief Executive Slawomir Krupa said will strengthen the group with a simplified business portfolio. The bank intends to focus on its core franchises going forward, it said.

    SocGen said it is targeting average annual revenue growth between 0% and 2% over the 2022-26 period. Under its previous targets between 2021 and 2025, the bank aimed to deliver average annual revenue growth of at least 3%.

    The bank said its businesses will grow differently, mainly through increased advisory and growth in self-financed risk-weighted assets, as a result of strict capital discipline.

    The bank aims to achieve a return on tangible equity–a key profitability metric-of between 9% and 10%, a cost-to-income ratio below 60% in 2026 and a common equity tier 1–a measure of financial strength–ratio at 13% in 2026.

    SocGen said it expects to an 80% reduction in its upstream oil-and-gas exposure by 2030 relative to 2019 levels, and that it aims to halve its exposure by 2025. It had previously targeted a 20% reduction by 2025.

    Write to Adria Calatayud at adria.calatayud@dowjones.com

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