The recent events at cryptocurrency exchange Binance could trigger the next Bitcoin bull run if this pattern continues to form.
Will Bitcoin Exchange Reserve Ratio Turn Around After Binance News?
As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the BTC exchange reserve ratio for US versus off-shore platforms has followed a specific pattern during past bull markets of the asset.
The “exchange reserve ratio” here refers to an indicator that compares the exchange reserves of any two platforms or group of platforms. The exchange reserve is the total amount of Bitcoin sitting in the wallets of the exchange/group in question.
In the context of the current discussion, the exchange reserve ratio between the US-based exchanges and foreign platforms is of interest. The trend in this metric can tell us about which type of exchanges users prefer to use.
When the ratio’s value declines, the off-shore exchanges gain steam as investors deposit their coins to them faster than to the US platforms (alternatively, they are withdrawing at a slower pace).
On the other hand, an increase implies the dominance of the American exchanges is going up as their exchange reserve is growing relative to that of the global platforms.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin exchange reserve ratio for these two sets of exchanges over the last few years:
Looks like the value of the metric has been going up in recent weeks | Source: CryptoQuant
In the graph, the quant has highlighted the two phases that the Bitcoin exchange reserve ratio for these platforms appeared to have followed during the last two bull runs.
In the first phase (marked in green), the indicator rises while the cryptocurrency goes through a buildup period for the bull rally. This suggests that large entities start participating in the American exchanges ahead of the bull run.
Once the bull run starts properly, the indicator’s value starts sliding down as investors withdraw their coins from these platforms again (the red box in the graph).
From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin exchange reserve ratio for US vs. foreign exchanges was in a continued decline since the start of the bear market but has recently shown signs of turning around.
The indicator has only registered a small increase so far, so it’s hard to say if it’s a sign of a trend taking shape or just a temporary deviation. Whatever the case, though, a development has happened in the Bitcoin market that can tip the favor towards the American platforms regardless.
Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange based on trading volume, has seen a leadership change following Changpeng Zhao’s resignation. The instability has kickstarted outflows from the exchange, while US-based Coinbase has enjoyed inflows.
Thus, this may be the event that leads to a proper reversal in the BTC exchange reserve ratio. “If the recent regulations on CZ and Binance lead to an increase in the percentage of Bitcoin held on US exchanges, we will be ready for the next bull market,” notes the analyst.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has once again been trying to breach the $38,000 level today, as the chart below shows.
BTC has registered some increase during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency on the market, has again failed to consolidate and reach the $38,000 level for the third time, as it is currently experiencing a 3% pullback. This has led the community to speculate that a significant retracement may occur before the bullish momentum resumes and the next uptrend begins.
However, renowned crypto analyst Adrian Zduńczyk has recently shed light on Bitcoin’s potential next target of $50,000. Zduńczyk’s analysis considers several crucial factors, including the prevailing bullish market sentiment, the ongoing uptrend, the short-term outlook, miner sentiment, and seasonal trends.
Evidence Of Dominant Bull Market
Zduńczyk notes that the cryptocurrency industry is in a bull market, with Bitcoin reaching a new 52-week high close and experiencing the third wave of the bullish cycle. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has risen, indicating a favorable environment for Bitcoin. High time frame trends are also rising.
Zduńczyk identifies key macro support levels for Bitcoin at $29,000 and $27,000, highlighting growing demand fueled by the anticipation of the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the upcoming halving event expected in April 2024.
Notably, the daily chart for BTC remains in an uptrend, according to Zduńczyk. He points to a target of $40,000, supported by the appearance of a “golden cross” pattern.
Furthermore, Zduńczyk believes that the rising Simple Moving Average (SMA) 200 serves as “irrefutable evidence” of a dominant bull market since January. These indicators suggest a continuation of the upward trajectory for Bitcoin.
Zduńczyk also identifies key support levels at $35,000 to $35,800, emphasizing that a bullish sentiment prevails as long as Bitcoin remains above these levels.
Zduńczyk Eyes Bitcoin November Target Of $50,000
Currently, Bitcoin is ranging between $35,500 and $38,000, Zduńczyk notes that the momentum bands are widening, indicating an increase in volatility. The rising 50-day Average True Range (ATR) trend supports this observation.
Fear & Greed Index stands at 69, indicating a mixed sentiment among market participants. Miners, on average, are enjoying a profit increase of 23%. Zduńczyk maintains a positive outlook based on these factors.
Regarding seasonal trends, October demonstrated a gain of 27%, exceeding the average performance. Historically, November has been the best month for Bitcoin, which has an average gain of 43%, with a target of around $50,000. Notably, December typically adds 7% to November’s closing price.
Currently, BTC is trading at $36,400, reflecting a 5% and 22% profit over the past fourteen and thirty days, respectively. The focus now shifts to whether BTC’s price can maintain its crucial support levels and sustain its bullish uptrend, potentially reaching the $50,000 milestone supported by historical patterns.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Here’s what on-chain data says regarding if the latest Bitcoin rally has hit the overheated “euphoria” stage where past bull runs topped out.
Bitcoin Percent Supply In Profit Has Now Hit The 83% Mark
In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the “euphoric” BTC phase from the angle of investor profitability. Euphoria basically refers to that period of the market where the investors have started embracing greed and the rally is becoming heated.
Historically, the major rallies in the asset have attained their tops in such market conditions. To define what constitutes euphoria, Glassnode has referred to the “percent supply in profit” metric. This indicator keeps track of the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply that’s currently being held at a profit.
Here is a chart that shows the trend in this indicator over the past decade:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin percent supply in profit has naturally shot up as the latest rally in the cryptocurrency has occurred and the metric’s value is now floating around the 83% mark.
The all-time mean of the metric is 74%, so the current levels are notably above this level. In the chart, the analytics firm has also marked the +1 standard deviation line for the indicator, above which the market can be thought to have entered into the early stages of the euphoria phase.
The +1 standard deviation line for the metric is around 90%, so the current profitability levels are still below the mark but are nonetheless quickly closing in the gap.
As mentioned before, these profitability levels are in terms of the supply or the coins, calculated by checking for the number of tokens that have their cost basis below the current spot price.
There is another way to gauge profitability, however, and it’s the magnitude of the profits that these coins are combined are seeing right now. This unrealized profit is naturally calculated by subtracting the cost basis of each coin from the current spot price and summing up these differences for the entire supply in profit.
“For the analysis of investor behavior, often the unrealized profit is a more critical variable as it relates back to the USD-denominated profit of investor positions,” explains Glassnode.
From the graph, it’s visible that the +1 standard deviation line for this Bitcoin indicator is still quite a distance away from the current value, meaning the coin is far from reaching the euphoric state of the bull market.
“This suggests that whilst a significant volume of the supply is in profit, most have a cost basis, which is only moderately below the current spot price,” notes the report.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has gone through some volatility over the past day following the news of Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stepping down as Binance’s CEO. The asset had earlier slipped below the $36,000 level but has since recovered back to $36,600.
Looks like BTC has been mostly trading sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Yiğit Ali Atasoy on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com
In a historical moment for both the nation and the crypto community, Argentina has ushered in a new era by welcoming its first-ever pro-Bitcoin President.
Argentina Elects Pro Bitcoin President
On November 19, Argentina released the results of its presidential election. Reports of the election results reveal that right-wing libertarian and Bitcoin advocate, Javier Milei won almost 56% out of 90% of votes counted. While his rival candidate, Minister Sergio Massa garnered 44% of the votes.
The momentous victory positions Milei as the face of a new era in Argentina, marked by his stated commitment to solving inflationary problems in the country by abolishing the country’s Central Bank and using digital currencies like Bitcoin.
In a public victory speech to his supporters in Buenos Aires, Milei declared that the transformative process of Argentina had just begun and the country was on its way to economic recovery. He promised to work with all the nations to help develop Argentina and make it a better country.
“Today begins the reconstruction of Argentina. Today begins the end of Argentina’s decline. The model of decadence has come to an end. There is no way back,” Milei stated.
He further added that “Argentina will return to its place in the world that it should never have lost. We are going to work shoulder-to-shoulder with all nations of the free world, to help build a better world.”
Former President of the United States, Donald Trump commended Milei on securing victory in the Argentinian Presidential election. He expressed his pride in Milei’s incredible feat and stated his anticipation for Milei’s efforts in restoring Argentina.
“Congratulations to Javier Milei on a great race for President of Argentina. The whole world was watching! I am very proud of you. You will turn your Country around and truly Make Argentina Great Again,” Trump stated.
BTC Price Surges As Argentina Embraces New Era Of Crypto
Following the news of Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s Presidential elections, Bitcoin price has been on an upward trend, trading above the $37,000 mark. The price of the cryptocurrency at the time of writing is $37,199 according to CoinMarketCap.
One of Milei’s primary policy plans as Argentina’s President is to discontinue the use of the Argentinian peso and adopt the United States Dollar as the country’s main currency. He has also mulled over the introduction of Bitcoin as a potential legal tender and declared possibilities of launching a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in Argentina.
While the proposals aim to significantly reduce the long-lasting inflationary crisis in the Argentinian economy, the involvement of Bitcoin could potentially herald a new wave of economic growth for the crypto industry.
Bitcoin recently gave a bearish signal, which ultimately failed to produce a meaningful pullback.
Due to the technical failure, historical data suggests that in only a matter of a month BTCUSD could set a new all-time high and reach a target of $85K per coin. Here’s why.
Why Failed Bearish Technicals Produce Bullish Breakouts
In technical analysis, certain patterns are considered characteristically bearish or bullish. For example, the ascending triangle is a typically bullish-leaning pattern, but only breaks upward 63% of the time. The other 37%, the pattern breaks down bearish.
Because of the nature of how orders and stop losses are stacked on either side of a pattern’s trend lines, a failed bullish pattern can be extremely bearish and vice-versa. Dissecting further, since the pattern was visibly bullish, it could have attracted more long-side positioning that is forced to unwind lower.
Recently, Bitcoin price gave a bearish TD9 sell setup on the weekly TD Sequential. However, no major correction followed. When this occurs, it often results in a sizable move in the opposite direction of the signal.
More simply put, the failed TD9 sell setup could mean a massive move higher. And how high price could go and how fast might shock you.
The TD Sequential is a market timing indicator developed by Thomas Demark. A TD9 setup or TD13 countdown is a specific sequence of candles that signal trend exhaustion.
Back in 2020 when this same signal failed, Bitcoin blasted off to new all-time highs above $20,000 and then some. It rallied 143% in the four weeks following the signal and over 300% more in total when it was all said and done.
If the same magnitude move followed this recently failed TD9 sell setup, Bitcoin price would reach $85,000 by the end of December. Another 300% beyond the current all-time high in BTCUSD would take the top cryptocurrency to over $200,000 per coin in total.
In terms of lower prices, the indicator also provides TDST support and resistance levels. These levels rise and fall with each completed TD setup. This latest setup caused TDST floor price support to raise from $10,000 to $25,000, reducing the chances that BTCUSD ever trades below that price again.
In December 2020, after a failed TD9 sell setup, #Bitcoin did another 143% in 4 weekly candles, pushing above former ATH resistance
The same magnitude move would bring $BTC to another new ATH at $85,000 before the end of the year
The Bitcoin open interest can often be an indication of where the BTC price might be headed next depending on whether or not the metric is rising or falling. This time around, the Bitcoin open interest has risen drastically, hitting 19-month highs in the process. Using historical data, it is possible to extrapolate what this means for the crypto’s price, especially as investors remain very bullish.
Bitcoin Open Interest Surges To $17.04 Billion
In an interesting turn of events, the Bitcoin open interest has been rising quickly across various exchanges. In the last 24 hours alone, this metric rose by a cumulative 7.89% across all exchanges in the space, bringing the total open interest to 454,150 BTC worth a staggering $17.04 billion.
For now, most of the Bitcoin open interest is concentrated across the CME, Binance, and ByBit exchanges. But perhaps what is even more interesting is that these open interest levels represent a 19-month high.
Source: CoinGlass
According to the data presented on the CoinGlass website, the last time that the Bitcoin open interest moved in this fashion and to this high was back in March 2022, before the historical Terra LUNA crash that sent the market into a prolonged bear market stretch.
This means that the last time that the Bitcoin open interest rose this much was during a time when investors were still very much in the throes of bull run euphoria. As such, the historical performance of the BTC price back then in relation to the open interest could serve as a guide to what might happen to the digital asset’s price next.
Similar to the current trend, the Bitcoin open interest had surged from around 38,000 BTC to over 44,000 BTC in the space of a month, and the BTC price followed quickly. This trend saw the price rise in March 2022 from $38,700 to over $47,000 before the month was over.
Going by this historical performance and assuming Bitcoin sticks to this trend, the rally may be far from over. The BTC price is also sitting at a similar price point at $37,500 and a similar surge could bring its price toward $45,000 before the month is over.
However, there is also the possibility that the open interest could peak at this level and begin to decline. Once this happens, then in the same fashion as in April 2022, the BTC price could begin to decline as the open interest drops. A similar crash would send the price back down toward $27,000.
Those burned by the last big Bitcoin bull run are rightfully skeptical that another one is here so soon. However, a trend strength indicator is now confirming the existence of a new bullish trend emerging.
Are bulls finally back in control over crypto? Sidelined investors and traders will want to pay attention.
How Technicals Could Confirm A New Bullish Trend In Bitcoin
Bitcoin price is pulling back after a few failed attempts to make it though $38,000 resistance. This sudden weakness after a major breakout is both reassuring for bears and confusing for bulls. Those on the sidelines still aren’t certain what to do.
But that’s what technical indicators were designed for – to eliminate noise and emotions, allowing the tools to make the decisions for you.
According to a trend strength measuring tool called the Average Directional Index, the bullish Bitcoin trend just became official as the indicator reaches above a reading of 20. The last time that BTCUSD reached above 20 while bulls were in control was back in August 2020, prior to a 450%+ rally.
For comparison sake, another 450% rally would put the price per coin around $200,000. However, each individual trend behaves differently and tops out at different ADX reading. This means anything is possible, but for now, the rise above 20 on the ADX is notable.
How To Tell Bulls Are In Control Of Crypto With The ADX
The Average Directional Index, as mentioned, is a trend strength measuring tool. It was created by J. Welles Wilder, Jr., known as the father of several technical analysis indicators. Wilder also developed the Relative Strength Index, Average True Range, and Parabolic SAR.
The ADX confirms a trend is active above a reading of 20, while anything below 20 suggests a weak trend and potential sideways price action. The tool often includes two additional indicators, the DI+ and DI-, which show which side of the market is in control of price action.
If the DI+ is above the DI- bulls are in control. Bears are in control if DI- is above DI+. The premise is simple and provides an easy way to visually see which side of the market is dominating.
Not only are bulls in control, but the DI+ is at 36, while the highest reading back in August 2020 was 32. This means that bulls are stronger now than they were back then, and look what happened.
In a detailed market update, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investment, has provided an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s current market position, highlighting a pivotal shift to an ‘expansion’ phase in the Bitcoin Macro Index. This transition is particularly noteworthy as it parallels conditions observed prior to historical price surges in Bitcoin’s valuation.
Bitcoin has recently experienced a sharp uptick, ascending from $34,000 to an interim high of $38,000. After a brief period of resistance, the price corrected to approximately $36,500. Edwards highlights this movement as a critical technical victory, with Bitcoin overcoming and holding above the major resistance benchmarks of $35,000 on both the weekly and monthly timeframes.
This consolidation above key resistance levels sets a bullish context in the high timeframe technical analysis, positioning Bitcoin in a strong technical stance according to traditional market indicators. “The recent breakout into the 2021 range offers the best high timeframe technical setup we have seen in years. Provided $35K holds on a weekly and monthly basis in November, the next significant resistance is range high ($58-65K).”
The crux of Edwards’ update is the shift in the Bitcoin Macro Index, a complex model synthesizing over 40 metrics encompassing Bitcoin’s on-chain data, macro market indicators, and equity market influences. The index does not take price as an input, thus providing a ‘pure fundamentals’ perspective.
The current expansion is the first since November 2020, and only the third instance since the index’s inception, with the two previous occasions leading to substantial price rallies in the following periods. Edwards elucidates this with a direct quote: “The transition from recovery to expansion is simply the optimal time to allocate to Bitcoin from a risk-reward opportunity for this model.”
A look at the Bitcoin chart reveals that the Bitcoin price rose by a whopping 400% during the last bull run from early November 2020 to November 2021, after the Macro Index entered the expansion phase. The first historical signal was provided by the Macro Index on November 9, 2016, which was followed by a massive bull run of almost 2,600% until Bitcoin reached its then all-time high of $20,000 in February 2018.
Bitcoin Macro Index | Source: Capriole Investments
Short-Term Technicals And Derivatives Market Analysis
In the short term, the technical outlook presents a mixed picture, according to Edwards. The derivative markets are indicating an overheated state, with low timeframe analysis suggesting a retracement could be imminent. Edwards introduces the ‘Bitcoin Heater’ metric, recently launched on Capriole Charts, which aggregate various derivatives market data and quantify the level of market risk based on the open interest and heating level of perpetuals, futures, and options markets.
The below chart shows that most of the time when the Bitcoin Heater is above 0.8, the market corrects or consolidates. “But there are large exceptions to the rule: such as the primary bull market rally from November 2020 through to Q1 2021. […] We should expect this metric to be high more frequently in 2024 (much like Q4 2020 – 2021),” Edwards stated.
Bitcoin Heater | Source: Capriole Investments
The analyst concluded that the overall trend for Bitcoin remains positive, with major data points indicating a strong bullish scenario. However, he also cautioned about potential short-term risks in the low timeframe technicals and derivatives market. These, according to him, are common in the development of a bull run and could offer valuable opportunities if dips occur.
The Bitcoin price returned to its sideways price action following a powerful surge into new yearly highs. The cryptocurrency seems poised for further gains if bulls can hold a critical level.
As of this writing, BTC trades at $36,370, with a 2% loss in the last 24 hours. Over the previous week, the number one crypto by market capitalization recorded a 5% gain, while the sentiment in the sector looks mixed, with BTC recording losses as Ethereum and Solana stayed strong in the same period.
Bitcoin Likely To Bounce If This Scenario Plays Out
According to a pseudonym analyst, the liquidity in the Bitcoin spot market, measured by a “Liquidity Map,” has been allocated to the downside. This metric gauges the amount of leverage in the BTC/USDT trading pair.
The chart below shows that BTC is trading close to a huge liquidation cluster. Overleverage positions create these levels and are often tapped by big players to exploit the liquidity.
BTC whales chase liquidity, moving prices towards the biggest pools of overleveraged positions. If the $36,300 gets tapped, the next level of interest is located to the upside between $36,961 and $37,700. The analyst stated:
Big clusters at $36K and ~$37K. Would expect there to be quite some positions build up around that 37K region mainly as we chopped around it all day yesterday. Bears are back in control on the LTF (Low Timeframe) below $36.3K I’d say.
BTC’s price liquidation map shows significant liquidity to the downside. Source: DaanCrypto on X
BTC Hits Local Top?
On the other hand, the Bitcoin price could trend sideways between $36,300 and the high of its current range. Additional data from crypto analytics firm Bitfinex Alpha indicates that historical data hints at bad news for optimistic traders.
The firm advises caution for traders as the liquidity gap in the Bitcoin spot market increases. Per recent data, BTC Short-Term Holders Realized Price (STH RP) bought the cryptocurrency at an average price of $30,380, which could incentivize these investors to take profit at current levels.
This is the first time STH has had an opportunity to make a big profit on their BTC holdings since April 2022 and December 2022. Historically, a monthly change in STH RP exceeding $2,000 often signals local peaks, particularly post-recovery in bear markets, as seen in the chart below.
Source: Bitfinex Alpha
Concurrently, a negative monthly shift in LTH RP usually implies long-term holders are offloading their Bitcoin. The convergence of a $2,000 increase in monthly STH RP and a decline in LTH RP suggests a high likelihood of a local peak in Bitcoin’s price.
Popular crypto analyst Don Alt has joined the bandwagon of predictions pertaining to Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Don Alt recently took to social media platform X to convey a strong bullish Bitcoin price sentiment, issuing a forecast that the cryptocurrency is on the verge of going supersonic to $60,000 in the coming months.
Even a $100,000 price point is not out of the books, according to this analyst. The catalyst for this potential liftoff? The long-awaited approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF in the US.
Bitcoin’s Supersonic Rally to $60,000
Don Alt is known for accurately predicting Bitcoin price points in the past and correctly pinpointed the crypto’s lowest price point in 2022. Now, Don Alt is of the notion that Bitcoin is poised for a massive price surge in the coming months that could send it soaring to $60,000.
It’s no news that this recent rally is due to the excitement around the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the analyst thinks this rally will continue until a $60,000 price point. The digital currency is already up by 121% since the beginning of the year and has broken multiple yearly highs in the past month.
The longer the SEC takes to approve the applications, the higher the rally will continue in anticipation. However, the analyst took a different line of thinking and considered the likelihood of a price decrease after the approval.
Don Alt mentioned that the approval might turn into a “sell the news moment,” implying that there might be many more bears waiting to take advantage of the price jump to sell off than the market thinks.
“Now, after the ETF gets approved, things might get a bit tricky. It could be a ‘sell-the-news’ moment, or maybe not. To be honest, I don’t know,” Don Alt said.
This line of reasoning resonates with economist Peter Schiff, who warned that approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs might lead to a Bitcoin price decline. Schiff also believes that there could be a larger number of people sitting on their assets in anticipation of an opportunity to sell at a higher price.
On-chain data shows that large investors have been selling off in light of profit-taking. Bitcoin whales and sharks have sold around 60,000 BTC, worth about $2.2 billion in the past week.
Bitcoin Price To $100,000?
Don Alt dismissed bearish sentiments, particularly those waiting for a Bitcoin pullback to $12,000. “BTC is more likely to go to $100,000 here than it is to go back to $12,000,” he said.
The SEC is slated to decide on 12 ETF applications by November 17, although they might not be approved until January 2024.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s rally has slowed down, and the asset has consolidated just below and above the $37,000 price point.
Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, has seen a significant price increase over the past month. The recent bullish rush in the crypto market, coupled with BlackRock’s involvement, has pushed ETH to its year-to-date high of $2,139.
Ethereum Outshines Bitcoin And Altcoins
According to market data provider Kaiko, ETH has outperformed BTC and many altcoins in recent weeks, signaling a shift in market dynamics.
Kaiko’s report highlights how ETH struggled to gain momentum over the past year, despite successful upgrades such as The Merge in April.
However, the sentiment around ETH changed dramatically when BlackRock filed for a spot ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF), leading to a reversal in the ETH to Bitcoin (BTC) ratio.
The impact on the market was substantial, with ETH prices surging above $2,000 for the first time since April. Additionally, daily spot trade volumes reached $7 billion, the highest level since the collapse of FTX.
The ETH ETF narrative provided further impetus to the ongoing rally, amplified by improved global risk sentiment and declining US Treasury yields.
The dominance of altcoin + ETH volume relative to BTC has risen to 60%, marking its highest level in over a year. During bull rallies, altcoin volume typically increases relative to BTC.
This surge in demand has also led to rising leverage, as reflected in the recovery of ETH open interest to early August levels. Notably, BTC open interest has declined over the past month due to liquidations on Binance, resulting in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) outpacing Binance as the largest BTC futures market.
Furthermore, ETH funding rates, a gauge of sentiment and bullish demand, have reached their highest levels in over a year, indicating a significant shift in sentiment. In November, both BTC and ETH 30-day volatility rose to 40% and 50% respectively, following a multi-year low of around 15% during the summer months.
Crypto Expert Predicts ETH Breakout
Renowned crypto expert Michael Van de Poppe believes that ETH is on the cusp of a significant breakthrough. According to Van de Poppe, if Ethereum manages to surpass the crucial $2,150 resistance level, it could signify the end of the bear market.
Drawing a parallel with Bitcoin’s critical $30,000 barrier, Van de Poppe suggests that breaching this level could pave the way for a substantial rally, potentially propelling Ethereum towards the price range of $3,100 to $3,600.
However, Ethereum has yet to touch the $2,150 resistance line, as it faces a pre-existing obstacle in the form of its yearly high of $2,139. This pivotal level has halted the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum, acting as a formidable resistance.
As a result, Ethereum has been consolidating within a narrow range between $2,050 and $2,100 for the past three days.
The forthcoming days will reveal whether Ethereum can overcome its immediate resistance levels and establish a consolidated position above them. Alternatively, it may face a fate similar to Bitcoin, which failed to surpass the $31,000 level for over seven months before reaching its current trading price of $36,000.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin sharks and whales have participated in a selloff of around $2.2 billion during the past week.
Bitcoin Wallets With 100 To 10,000 BTC Have Been Selling Recently
As pointed out by analyst Ali in a post on X, the large BTC investors might have been harvesting their profits recently. The indicator of interest here is the “BTC Supply Distribution,” which keeps track of the total amount of Bitcoin the different wallet groups in the sector are holding.
The addresses or investors are divided into these groups based on the total number of coins they currently carry. For instance, the 1 to 10 coins cohort includes all wallets with a balance of at least 1 and at most 10 BTC.
In the context of the current discussion, the 100 to 10,000 BTC range is of focus. The 100 to 1,000 coins group is popularly called the “sharks,” while the 1,000 to 10,000 cohort includes the whales.
Both groups carry significant amounts, so their behavior can be relevant for the wider market. Though the whales are much larger of the two, and thus hold much more influence on the network.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the combined Supply Distribution of the Bitcoin sharks and whales over the past couple of months:
The value of the metric seems to have registered a sharp drop in recent days | Source: @ali_charts on X
As displayed in the above graph, the 100 to 10,000 coins Bitcoin investors have seen their supply go through a steep drawdown during the past week. During this drop, these humongous entities have sold around 60,000 BTC, worth about $2.2 billion at the current asset price.
This is a notable amount, and considering that the timing of the distribution has coincided with BTC’s latest break above the $37,000 level, it would appear possible that these key holders have participated in this huge selloff to harvest the profits that they would have amassed in the rally.
The sharks and whales also took part in some selling when BTC had broken above $35,000 last month, but both the rate and the scale of the selloff were lesser when compared to the one now, as the Supply Distribution for these cohorts has plunged rather steeply this time around.
So far, however, despite this large selloff, Bitcoin hasn’t had much trouble maintaining around the $37,000 mark. The asset initially saw a pullback when the selling started, as it retraced towards $36,000, but it rebounded back quickly enough.
That said, BTC may not be able to break out of its sideways movement toward the upside without the backing of the sharks and whales. The aforementioned surge towards the $37,000 had also occurred just after these investors had made some huge buying moves.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has continued to consolidate around the $37,000 level during the past few days as the chart below shows.
In his latest essay, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has laid out his investment playbook in the current global economic landscape, focusing on the potential of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, big tech, and traditional financial markets.
Dumb Trades
Hayes begins with a blunt critique of traditional investment strategies, particularly the purchase of long-term bonds in the current economic climate. He explicitly states, “The dumbest thing one can do is purchase long-term bonds with a buy-and-hold mentality.”
Hayes explains this viewpoint by highlighting the risks associated with these bonds, especially when liquidity conditions shift, saying, “You will experience a market-to-market gain today, but…the market will start to discount the impact of further Reverse Repo [RRP] balance decreases and long-end bond yields will creep higher, which means prices fall.”
Moving on to smarter investment approaches, Hayes acknowledges leveraging short-term debt, as exemplified by Stan Druckenmiller. Hayes notes that Stan Druckenmiller went mega-long 2-year treasuries. He remarked, “Great trade, brah! Not everyone has the stomach for the best expressions of this trade (hint: it’s crypto). Therefore, if all you can trade are manipulated TradFi assets like government bonds and stocks, then this isn’t a bad option.”
Hayes also argues that a trade “that’s a bit better than the medium-smart trade (but still not the smartest) is to go long on big tech.” Hayes focuses on AI-related companies. He identifies AI as a pivotal future technology, arguing, “Everyone knows that everyone knows that AI is the future. This means anything AI-related will pump, because everyone is buying it too. Tech stocks are long-duration assets and will benefit from cash being trash once more.”
Smart Trades: Bitcoin And Crypto
However, the smartest trade is to go long crypto, which has significantly outperformed other assets relative to the increase in central bank balance sheets. Hayes presented the chart below, comparing the performance of Bitcoin, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Gold against the Fed’s balance sheet since March 2020, highlighting Bitcoin’s exceptional growth.
Bitcoin (white), Nasdaq 100 (red), S&P 500 (green), and Gold (yellow) divided by the Fed’s balance sheet | Source: Arthur Hayes / Medium
Hayes identifies Bitcoin as the primary investment target, describing it as “money and only money.” Following Bitcoin, he points to Ether as the commodity powering the Ethereum network. “Ether is the commodity that powers the Ethereum network, which is the best internet computer.”
He categorizes other cryptocurrencies, stating, “Bitcoin and Ether are crypto’s reserve assets. Everything else is a shitcoin.” He further elaborates on alternative layer-one blockchains like Solana, calling them “all overhyped, me-too, pieces of shit that won’t overtake Ethereum in terms of active developers, dApp activity, or Total Value Locked.”
Hayes also discusses decentralized applications (dApps) and their tokens. He finds this sector exciting for its high-return potential, though he acknowledges the risks: “Finally, all manner of dApps and their respective tokens will pump. This is the most fun, because down here is where you get the 10,000x returns. Of course, you’re also more likely to get rugged, but where there is no risk there is no return. I love shitcoins, so don’t ever call me a maxi!”
Geo-Economic Factors
Regarding his investment strategy in the context of current economic fluctuations, Hayes explains his focus on the net of RRP minus Treasury General Account (TGA) to gauge market liquidity, which informs his decisions on T-bill sales and Bitcoin purchases. He emphasizes the importance of adaptability, stating, “I will stay nimble and flexible. The best-laid plans of mice and men have a tendency to falter.”
Hayes also delves into geopolitical considerations, specifically the potential impact of the Hamas v. Israel conflict on oil prices and monetary policy. He notes Bitcoin’s resilience in such scenarios: “Bitcoin has proven to outperform bonds during times of war. […] The long-term US Treasury bond ETF has fallen 12% vs. Bitcoin pumping 52% since the onset of the Ukraine / Russia war.”
While he concedes that Bitcoin could fall in an initial move when Iran is drawn into the Hamas v. Israel war, it would be a “buy the dip” situation according to Hayes.
In a candid conclusion, Hayes comments on the historical context of geopolitical conflicts, expressing skepticism about the prospects for global peace: “Of course, if those in charge of Pax Americana committed themselves to peace and global harmony… nah, I’m not even going to finish that thought. These mofos have been practicing war since 1776, with no signs of letting up.”
According to Hayes, however, all roads lead to Bitcoin: “[It] will reassert itself as a real-time scorecard on the health of the war-time fiat financial system.”
The flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is up by over 100% year-to-date (YTD). Despite these impressive gains, there is still reason to believe that the crypto token’s resurgence isn’t done, as there could still be new highs before the year runs out based on analysis from prominent figures in the community.
Bitcoin To Hit $69,000 This Year?
In a post shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, prominent crypto analyst Dave the Wave suggested that Bitcoin could surge to its previous highs this last quarter of the year. Although he didn’t state what highs exactly, the accompanying chart he shared in the post showed that he was hinting at Bitcoin’s all-time high of about $69,000.
This isn’t the first time the crypto analyst has shared his belief that Bitcoin could hit $69,000 this year. In an earlier X post, he shared a similar chart, which put up a price target of $70,000 based on the speculation of “another mini-parabola frontrunning the halving.”
It is not unusual for the market to pump significantly, as historical data suggests. Bitcoin’s price has increased significantly before and after every halving event. Before the most recent halving event, which took place in 2020, BTC rose by over 17% in the weeks leading up to it and saw a further 559% increase after the event.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $37.072. Chart: TradingView.com
However, many might argue that an all-time high (ATH) before the halving event, which takes place in April 2024, seems like a far reach, especially if the analyst is projecting that the new high will occur before this year runs out.
Bitcoin To Hit New All-Time High Before April?
While a new all-time high before the year runs out seems like a big task, some prominent figures have, however, backed the crypto token to hit a new ATH before April. One of them happens to be Bitcoin OG and founder of Blockstream, Adam Back. Interestingly, Back predicted (back in August) that BTC will hit or even surpass $100,000 before March 31st, 2024.
To show how confident he was of his assertion, the crypto founder went as far as placing a bet with another X user who disagreed with his position. They both agreed to wager a bet of 1 million satoshis, with the winner (depending on Bitcoin’s price by March 31, 2024) taking all.
The CEO of Jan3 and a fellow Bitcoiner, Samson Mow, had also agreed with Back in some way, as he believes that Bitcoin will also hit a new ATH pre-halving and not post. However, unlike Back, he didn’t mention any price target.
The anticipation around the next BTC halving is palpable among investors and cryptocurrency enthusiasts alike. This process, which slashes the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions in half, is a pivotal event for the economy of the flagship cryptocurrency.
The next BTC halving date is not just a mark on the calendar; it’s a beacon for potential shifts in value and market dynamics, making the question “when is the next BTC halving” all the more critical for market participants. This comprehensive guide dives deep into the concept of Bitcoin halving, its historical impact, and what the future holds as we approach the next halving.
Bitcoin Network 101: The Basics Explained
The next BTC halving is a seminal event in the Bitcoin blockchain’s timeline, marking the point at which the reward for mining new blocks is halved. This event is not just a technical adjustment, but a significant milestone that historically has had profound implications for Bitcoin’s economics and market sentiment. Since the 2020 halving, miners have been receiving 6.25 Bitcoins (BTC) per successfully mined block, a reward that incentivizes the decentralized security of the network.
Looking ahead, the next BTC halving is projected to take place in early-to-mid 2024, a moment when the mining incentive will decrease to 3.125 BTC per block. This editorial delves into the intricacies of the next BTC halving, examining its anticipated date, the countdown to the event, and the broader implications for Bitcoin’s supply and valuation. We will also explore the historical context of past halvings to understand the potential future trajectory of Bitcoin as the reward continues to halve towards the smallest unit of a Bitcoin, one Satoshi.
The Bitcoin network is a triumph of cryptographic achievements and economic incentives that create a trustless system for value transfer. At its core, the network is a distributed database, known as the blockchain, that maintains a continuously growing list of transaction records hardened against tampering and revision. It employs a consensus algorithm called Proof of Work (PoW) to ensure network synchrony and security.
Bitcoin Mining 101
Miners, who are network participants with specialized hardware, compete to solve cryptographically hard puzzles. The solution to these puzzles requires a significant amount of computational power and energy. The first miner to validate a block of transactions by solving the puzzle is granted the right to append that block to the blockchain. This process is referred to as ‘mining’ a block, and it is through this mechanism that transactions are confirmed and the network is secured.
Bitcoin Mining
The reward for mining is twofold: miners collect transaction fees from each transaction included in the new block, and they are also awarded a block subsidy. This subsidy is composed of newly created bitcoins and is the mechanism through which new bitcoins are introduced into circulation. The block subsidy is predetermined by the Bitcoin protocol and undergoes a halving event every 210,000 blocks, which historically occurs approximately every four years.
The Bitcoin protocol is designed to be a self-regulating market system. The difficulty of the cryptographic puzzles adjusts approximately every two weeks (“Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustment”), ensuring that the time between each block found remains close to ten minutes, despite the fluctuating amount of computational power dedicated to mining. This difficulty adjustment is critical to the network’s stability and the predictability of Bitcoin issuance.
Definition And Rationale Behind BTC Halving
The BTC halving is an event that is deeply embedded in the Bitcoin protocol, serving as a deflationary mechanism by design. It is a deliberate algorithmic adjustment that occurs every 210,000 blocks, which historically equates to roughly every four years. During this event, the block subsidy awarded to miners for each block mined—comprising new bitcoins created and added to the circulating supply—is cut in half.
This halving process is a critical component of Bitcoin’s economic model, which is characterized by a capped supply limit of 21 million coins. The halving serves to enforce a synthetic form of inflation that is programmatically decreasing over time, ensuring that the issuance of new bitcoins follows a predictable deceleration curve akin to the extraction of a finite resource.
Key Narrative Behind The Bitcoin Halving
The rationale behind this process is multifaceted:
Controlled Supply Emission: By algorithmically enforcing a reduction in the rate at which new bitcoins are created, the halving event ensures that the total supply approaches the maximum cap asymptotically, a stark contrast to fiat currencies which can be printed without limit.
Inflation Hedge: The halving events contribute to Bitcoin’s proposition as a hedge against inflation. As the rate of supply expansion slows down, assuming demand remains constant or increases, the purchasing power of Bitcoin should, in theory, strengthen over time.
Security Incentives: The block subsidy is a critical incentive for miners to expend energy securing the network. As the subsidy decreases, the expectation is that a corresponding increase in the value of Bitcoin will offset the reduced block reward, maintaining or enhancing the security budget.
Market Anticipation and Speculation: Halving events are often accompanied by significant market attention and speculation, leading to increased trading activity and liquidity as investors attempt to predict and capitalize on potential price movements resulting from the supply shock.
Long-Term Viability: By enforcing a methodical reduction in new supply, Bitcoin’s halving events are designed to ensure the network’s long-term viability, preventing the rapid depletion of mining rewards and encouraging sustainable growth.
Brief History Of Past BTC Halving Dates And Their Impact
The history of Bitcoin halving dates back to November 28, 2012, when the first halving occurred at block 210,000. Prior to this event, the block reward was 50 BTC. Post-halving, it was reduced to 25 BTC. The impact was significant, with the price of Bitcoin increasing from approximately $12 in November 2012 to over $1,100 in November 2013, marking an increase of over 9,000%. This price surge is attributed to the reduced supply of new bitcoins and increased media and investor attention.
The Second and Third BTC Halving
The second BTC halving took place on July 9, 2016, at block 420,000, further reducing the block reward to 12.5 BTC. The price at the time of the halving was around $650, and over the next 18 months, Bitcoin experienced unprecedented growth, reaching an all-time high of nearly $20,000 in December 2017. This represented an approximate 3,000% increase from the halving date to the peak of the market cycle.
The most recent, third Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020, at block 630,000, cutting the block reward down to the current 6.25 BTC. The price of Bitcoin on the halving date hovered around $8,600. Following this halving, Bitcoin entered another bull market, reaching a peak of around $64,000 in April 2021, which corresponds to an increase of roughly 644% from the halving date to the peak.
Each BTC halving has been followed by a period of increased Bitcoin prices, though the extent and duration of these bull markets have varied. The halvings are believed to have a direct impact on the price due to the reduced rate of new Bitcoin creation, which, if demand remains constant or increases, can lead to a higher price per Bitcoin.
The Fourth Bitcoin Halving
It’s important to note that while the Bitcoin halvings are significant, they are not the sole drivers of Bitcoin’s price. Other factors such as regulatory changes, technological advancements, macroeconomic trends, and shifts in investor sentiment also play crucial roles in the cryptocurrency’s valuation.
The next BTC halving is estimated to occur on April 24, 2024, at block 840,000, where the block reward will be reduced to 3.125 BTC. As with previous halvings, there is considerable speculation about the potential impact on the price and mining dynamics of Bitcoin. Historical patterns suggest a potential increase in Bitcoin’s price, but the actual outcome will depend on a complex interplay of market forces at the time.
The next BTC halving is at block 840,000
List Of The Next BTC Halving Dates
Bitcoin halvings occur every 210,000 blocks, which, with an average block time of roughly 10 minutes, translates to approximately every four years. Given that the last halving occurred in May 2020, we can project the next BTC halvings by adding four years to the previous halving date, keeping in mind that variations in actual block times can cause slight deviations from these estimates.
Here is a projected list of the next BTC halving dates until the emission of new bitcoins reaches zero:
The Next BTC Halving: Expected at block 840,000, around April 2024, reducing the block reward to 3.125 BTC.
2028 Halving: Expected at block 1,050,000, reducing the block reward to 1.5625 BTC.
2032 Halving: Expected at block 1,260,000, reducing the block reward to 0.78125 BTC.
2036 Halving: Expected at block 1,470,000, reducing the block reward to 0.390625 BTC.
2040 Halving: Expected at block 1,680,000, reducing the block reward to 0.1953125 BTC.
2044 Halving: Expected at block 1,890,000, reducing the block reward to 0.09765625 BTC.
2048 Halving: Expected at block 2,100,000, reducing the block reward to 0.048828125 BTC.
2052 and Beyond: The next BTC halvings will continue every four years, with the block reward continuing to halve until it becomes negligible.
The process will continue until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins has been reached, which is estimated to occur by the year 2140. After the final Bitcoin has been mined, miners will no longer receive block subsidies and will rely solely on transaction fees as compensation for their contribution to the network’s security.
Projecting the Next BTC Halving Date
When Is The Next BTC Halving Date
The next BTC halving is projected to occur when the Bitcoin blockchain reaches block 840,000. Based on the average time it takes to mine a block, the halving events have historically taken place approximately every four years. Given the current block height and the average block time, the next BTC halving is estimated to happen in April 2024.
Current Data And Prediction Of The Next BTC Halving Date
As of the latest data, the next BTC halving is anticipated to occur in April 2024. However, the exact date cannot be predicted with absolute certainty due to the variable nature of block times; it could potentially occur in late March or extend into May 2024. The most precise estimates suggest that the event will likely take place on April 20, 2024, at 10:24:52 AM UTC, according to CoinWarz.
These predictions are based on the current hashrate, or the total computational power, being used to mine and process transactions on the Bitcoin network. Fluctuations in hashrate can affect block times and thus could slightly alter the expected date of the halving. It’s important to note that while these predictions are made with the best available data, they should be considered as estimates rather than exact timings.
Next BTC Halving Countdown
How To Track The BTC Halving Countdown
To track the BTC halving countdown, enthusiasts and investors can use specialized tools that monitor the current block height and calculate the estimated time until the next BTC halving event based on the average block time. List Of Reliable Countdown Tools
Here are the estimated dates and times for the next BTC halving according to various countdown tools, providing a range of perspectives on when the event is expected to occur:
NiceHash BTC Next Halving Countdown: Estimates the next BTC halving to occur on March 27, 2024, at 19:28 UTC. This tool factors in the current hashrate and block time to provide its countdown.
Bitcoinsensus BTC Halving Countdown: Projects the halving to take place on April 24, 2024, at 04:24:04. Bitcoinsensus provides a detailed countdown timer that updates in real-time.
CoinWarz BTC Halving Countdown: Predicts the halving event will happen on April 20, 2024, at 10:24:21 AM UTC. CoinWarz uses a comprehensive approach to estimate the date and time, considering the latest network data.
Blockchair BTC Halving Countdown: Offers an estimated date and time for the reward drop on April 24, 2024, at 3:22 AM UTC. Blockchair’s countdown is based on sophisticated tracking of blockchain metrics.
Historical Market Trends Pre- And Post-Halving
Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited significant price movements both in anticipation of and following halving events. The halving tends to create a bullish sentiment as the supply of new bitcoins entering the market slows down.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has delineated the Bitcoin market cycle into five distinct phases surrounding the next BTC halving event, based on historical patterns:
Pre-Halving Period: With approximately 5.5 months until the April 2024 halving, history suggests that any significant price retracements in this phase can offer substantial ROI for investors in the months following the halving.
Pre-Halving Rally: Roughly 60 days before the halving, a rally typically ensues as investors buy into the hype, anticipating a sell-off post-event.
Pre-Halving Retrace: Around the time of the halving, the market often experiences a retrace. This was -38% in 2016 and -20% in 2020, leading to doubts about the halving’s bullish impact.
Re-Accumulation: Post-halving, a period of re-accumulation occurs, often marked by investor exit due to the slow pace of price movement and lack of immediate gains.
Parabolic Uptrend: Once Bitcoin exits the re-accumulation phase, it typically enters a parabolic uptrend, leading to accelerated growth and new all-time highs.
5 Phases Of The Next Bitcoin Halving | Source: X @rektcapital
FAQs About The Next BTC Halving
What Is The Bitcoin Network?
The Bitcoin network is a decentralized digital ledger that records all Bitcoin transactions across a network of computers. It is powered by blockchain technology, which ensures security and transparency by allowing multiple copies of the data to be stored on nodes across the network.
When Is The Next BTC Halving Date?
The next BTC halving is estimated to occur on April 24, 2024, but the exact date may vary based on the network’s hashrate and block time.
Are There Websites For The Next BTC Halving Date?
Yes, there are several websites that provide countdowns to the next BTC halving, including NiceHash, Bitcoinsensus, CoinWarz, and Blockchair.
What Is The Bitcoin Halving?
The Bitcoin halving is an event that halves the rate at which new bitcoins are generated by miners. It occurs every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, as a part of Bitcoin’s deflationary monetary policy.
What Is The BTC Halving Countdown?
The BTC halving countdown is a timer that counts down to the next BTC halving event, indicating how much time is left until the block reward for miners is halved.
Why Are BTC Halvings Occurring Every 4 Years?
BTC halvings are scheduled to occur every 210,000 blocks, which roughly translates to every four years. This is designed to create a predictable and decreasing supply of new bitcoins, mimicking the extraction curve of a finite resource like gold.
What Will Happen After The Last BTC Halving?
After the last Bitcoin halving, no new bitcoins will be created, and miners will be compensated solely with transaction fees for their role in processing transactions and securing the Bitcoin network. This is expected to occur around the year 2140.
The cryptocurrency industry has experienced significant growth in recent weeks with an influx of capital. This influx of capital has forced Bitcoin over various price resistances, with the latest being a brief cross over the $37,000 level. MicroStrategy has emerged as a prominent public company that has successfully capitalized on this price push.
MicroStrategy’s blockbuster bet on the world’s largest cryptocurrency has certainly paid off so far. The company has posted over $1 billion in unrealized profit thanks to Bitcoin’s 36% increase from $26,750 since October 13. Shares of MicroStrategy have also risen simultaneously, soaring more than 55% since the same time period.
MicroStrategy’s Bold Bitcoin Bet Paying Off
MicroStrategy started buying in Bitcoin in 2020 but the latest acquisition came in October, amidst the influx of money into Bitcoin, where the company announced it had acquired an additional 155 BTC for $5.3 million.
MicroStrategy now owns a total of 158,245 BTC, acquired at an average total value of $4.68 billion. At BTC’s current price of around $36,500, MicroStrategy’s BTC investment is now worth over $5.77 billion, representing an unrealized 26% return of $1.1 billion in around three years.
The company’s investment in Bitcoin has also paid off on the back end of its stock price, as it has outperformed many stocks and assets since the adoption of its Bitcoin strategy. The share price has shot up 242% from its open price of $145 at the beginning of the year.
At the time of writing, MicroStrategy share is trading at $497, and Michael Saylor noted that this growth has been largely in part to its innovative Bitcoin strategy.
MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor has been an outspoken proponent of Bitcoin. Saylor’s belief in Bitcoin spearheaded MicroStrategy’s investment in the asset, and a cursory look through his social media page on X shows various posts promoting Bitcoin.
Saylor recently stated, in an interview with Fox Business, that MicroStrategy’s BTC investments were part of a well-planned strategy to rival tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Apple.
“What we did in August of 2020 was recognize that there’s no way we’re going to outgrow Google and Microsoft and Apple Computer as a mid-sized software company. We realized Bitcoin is like a high-tech dominant digital network growing at 40% or 50% a year, and so we bought it,” he said in the interview.
Saylor also expects the demand for BTC to double in the next 12 months amidst its next halving and the approvals of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Ultimately, he believes that the price of BTC will eventually reach $5 million.
MicroStrategy isn’t the only company with Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Public companies now own a total of 239,494 BTC, representing 1.23% of the total supply. Marathon Digital, Galaxy Digital, and Tesla are a few of these companies, holding 13,286, 12,545, and 10,500 BTC, respectively.
Featured image from MicroStrategy, chart from Tradingview.com
A new peer-reviewed research paper has emerged, shedding light on the potential symbiosis between Bitcoin mining and renewable energy initiatives. Dennis Porter, CEO and co-founder of Satoshi Act Fund, a non-profit educational organization dedicated to informing policymakers and regulators about Bitcoin mining’s benefits, and president of Satoshi Educate, shared his insights via X, underscoring the importance of the study. He remarked, “JUST IN: New peer-reviewed research states that Bitcoin mining ‘could serve as a bridge to foster investments in renewable energy.’”
Top Science Journal Praise Bitcoin Mining’s Potential
Murray Rudd, Science Advisor for Satoshi Educate, provided a comprehensive overview of the paper, titled “From mining to mitigation: how Bitcoin can support renewable energy development and climate action.” Published in the esteemed ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering journal, which holds a notable 14th rank out of 139 in environmental science-chemistry journals, the paper is expected to be a significant contributor to future research in the field.
The research team, including a PhD student from Cornell University and experienced professors from Western and Cornell, led by Fengqi You, has presented a paper that is “poised to be highly cited”, offering “valuable insights” into the role of BTC mining in renewable energy development, according to Murray.
The paper addresses a critical question: Can Bitcoin mining increase the economic viability of renewable energy projects in the US? According to the findings, the answer is a definitive yes. Utilizing national data, the research method involved assessing the profitability of new solar and wind projects, indicating a real-world approach backed by data from the National Renewable Energy Lab.
Despite its complexity, the essence of the research is clear: The study evaluates capital and operational expenditures against power output, focusing on 58 pre-commercial renewable facilities to determine their profitability before grid hook-up.
Key findings suggest that BTC mining can indeed attract private investment into the renewable energy sector. Furthermore, the authors present three policy recommendations.
Firstly, to adopt flexible decarbonization strategies that include mining; secondly, to encourage the use of clean energy sources for Bitcoin mining, supplemented by carbon credits as incentives; and thirdly, to maximize location-specific renewable energy integration, reinvesting profits into further renewable infrastructure.
The paper concludes with a powerful statement, suggesting “Bitcoin mining, an activity often criticized due to its energy-intensive nature, could serve as a bridge to foster investments in renewable energy”
More Research Needed
Rudd’s personal take highlights Bitcoin’s potential in accelerating the adoption of renewable energy, noting that the study might even underestimate the benefits due to its reliance on historical data on market prices. He emphasizes the need for further research, particularly on the long-term contributions of Bitcoin mining to the financial viability of renewable energy facilities.
Additionally, Rudd points out the need to consider the business structures of miners and renewable energy operators and how they collaborate. At Satoshi Educate, efforts are underway to explore similar models, particularly focusing on landfill methane mitigation, aiming to further elucidate the impacts of mining on the environment.
Remarkably, this paper could be another major step towards rectifying the bad reputation of Bitcoin mining.
At press time, the BTC price rose above $37,000 after breaking out of the ascending trend channel on the 2-hour chart.
A look into the Bitcoin price action shows a consolidation under the $35,000 support level has resumed, but the majority of holders are holding steady. Onchain data has revealed that the number of Bitcoin unmoved in a 3-month timeframe has reached a record high of 88.5%. The upside potential remains huge despite the ongoing consolidation, as the top crypto is still up by 26% since the beginning of October.
BTC Price Drops Below $35,000 But Investor Sentiment Remains Bullish
Bitcoin managed to push above $35,000 a few times this week, propelling millions of BTC wallets into profitability. The crypto has since dropped below $35,000, but long-term investors remain optimistic, according to on-chain analytics of Bitcoin movement. One particular metric that speaks a lot about the current Bitcoin cycle is Glassnode’s HODL Waves.
HODL Waves change color based on their age in wallets. Bitcoins start at red immediately after they’re transferred into wallets and gradually transition to purple as they continue to remain unmoved.
This metric, which tracks the age of Bitcoins on the move and on wallets, has shown almost 90% of BTC total supply has remained idle in the past three months.
The hilarious thing is that 88.5% of the #bitcoin supply hasn’t moved in the last three months.
Wall Street is gonna have to really pump this thing to get hodlers to part with their coins. $BTCpic.twitter.com/CtD7GoA9ka
A similar metric from IntoTheBlock has shown retail traders joining the long-term holder bandwagon as investors start to hold on to their assets in the prospect of a BTC spot ETF approval by the SEC. IntoTheBlock’s holding metric puts the number of addresses holding Bitcoin for more than one year at an all-time high of 34 million addresses.
BTC market cap currently at $679.499 billion on the daily chart: TradingView.com
Investors Anticipate SEC Approval Of Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Several factors have contributed to the increase in long-term confidence of Bitcoin investors, one of which is the commencement of a spot ETF trading in the US. The industry expects the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs to ignite the next bullish run for the price of Bitcoin. A top executive at Valkyrie Investments is very confident these ETF applications will be approved by the end of the month.
However, Singapore-based QCP Capital attributed the recent spike in Bitcoin to macro forces like the drop in US bond yields, not the excitement around spot ETFs. Low bond yields force investors to look into higher-yield investments like BTC.
Overall, Bitcoin looks to remain in a consolidation phase until buyers step back in or some catalyst drives the next rally. The last time Bitcoin’s supply reached 88% for this metric was during a consolidation in late 2022, where bears got the better and Bitcoin dipped below $20,000. A continued consolidation could see Bitcoin follow this pattern, breaking below its current range to reach $30,000.
The Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, Jurrien Timmer, recently provided insights into the potential of the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and went as far as labeling the crypto token as “exponential gold.”
A Glance At Bitcoin’s Adoption Curve
In a post released on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Timmer mentioned that Bitcoin’s scarcity and adoption curve potentially allow it to be a “high-powered hedge against monetary shenanigans,” likely alluding to the fact that the token’s features make it a great option to hedge against inflation. That is why he sees the token as “exponential gold.”
Source: X
He further elaborated on Bitcoin’s adoption curve, stating that it has so far followed a “typical S-curve shape,” which places it in good company with other major innovations that went through such an adoption journey. One of them is mobile phones, as Timmer noted that Bitcoin’s adoption curve in 2020 resembled that of mobile phones in the ‘80s and ‘90s.
Source: X
Bitcoin, however, seems to have moved to another stage in the adoption curve, as Timmer stated that the “real-rate narrative changed from dovish in 2020 to hawkish in 2022.” He further suggested that Bitcoin has moved past the stage of a rapid rise as its adoption curve has flattened out. With this, Timmer believes that it now shares similarities with the adoption curve of the internet in the 2000s as the crypto token “has not made much progress since 2021.”
Bitcoin Volatility: Good Or Bad?
In a subsequent post, Timmer put Bitcoin’s volatility in perspective as he compared it with other asset classes. First, he shared a risk-reward chart for the pandemic and post-pandemic era ranging from 2020 to this year. The SPX seemed to provide the best risk-reward with close to 24% return.
Source: X
Timmer then went on to share another chart, which included Bitcoin this time around. The foremost cryptocurrency notably stood out from the rest, as he mentioned that Bitcoin was “in a different universe,” with a 58% return.
Source: X
Bitcoin’s high volatility seems to have contributed to such returns in no small way, as Timmer mentioned that the crypto token’s huge drawdowns also come with large gains. To drive home his point, he shared another chart that showed drawdowns and rallies, which various asset classes have experienced from their 2-year high and low, respectively.
Source: X
The chart showed that Bitcoin experienced a 54% drawdown from its two-year high but is also up by 84% from its low in the same period.
This is more impressive when one considers how other asset classes have fared in the same period as Timmer stated that Government bonds “can’t hold a candle” to Bitcoin’s risk-reward math.
Michael Saylor, the executive chairman and co-founder of MicroStrategy Inc, anticipates a substantial surge in Bitcoin’s value following the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of a spot ETF, and a subsequent surge in demand for the leading cryptocurrency.
Renowned as a Bitcoin advocate, Saylor reaffirmed his belief in the unparalleled potential for Bitcoin, foreseeing a tenfold upsurge in its value.
This week, Bitcoin hovered near the $36,000 mark, narrowly missing it before tumbling back to $34,300. The abrupt correction followed a nearly 25% climb in the last month, prompting some traders to seize profits and market participants to re-evaluate the driving forces behind the rally.
“When banks and responsible custodians are managing #Bitcoin & the industry takes its eyes away from all of the shiny little tokens that have distracted & demolished shareholder value, I think the industry moves to the next level and we 10X from here.” @saylor to @SaraEisenpic.twitter.com/sVKugHt7Tx
Although the nearly 5% intraday retreat signaled what some analysts call a “cooling-off stage”, several market observers maintain a positive outlook on the crypto.
Despite the volatility, Saylor remained unfazed by the erratic price action. On November 1, MicroStrategy’s announcement of purchasing 155 Bitcoins for $5.3 million showcased an unwavering commitment to the cryptocurrency, underscoring the resilience of those who continually support Bitcoin through market fluctuations and price swings.
At present, the SEC is in the process of examining many applications for a Bitcoin ETF following a prolonged period of delay. According to numerous analysts, it is widely speculated that an approval may be forthcoming as early as January 2024.
Image: Screen grab from CNBC
During his discussion with CNBC, Saylor conveyed that a yearly $12 billion of natural selling is anticipated to transform into $6 billion annually, aligning with the escalating demand for bitcoin driven by spot bitcoin ETFs.
He underlined the prevalent bullish outlook, emphasizing the upcoming 12-month period’s potential as a result of the expected rise in demand and a concurrent reduction in supply, “and this is fairly unprecedented in the history of Wall Street,” he said.
Bitcoin currently trading at $34,835 territory. Chart: TradingView.com
Key Factors Driving Saylor’s Conviction In Crypto’s Future
Saylor’s conviction in the cryptocurrency is further derived from the convergence of several forthcoming Bitcoin-related developments throughout the upcoming year. Firstly, it is important to note that Bitcoin is scheduled to undergo a “halving” event in April 2024.
This event will result in a 50% reduction in Bitcoin mining incentives, so significantly decreasing the quantity of Bitcoin that is expected to be introduced into the market by miners.
With a valuation of $34,715 at the time of writing, based on figures by CoinMarketCap, and an impressive 24-hour trading volume of nearly $20 billion, Bitcoin is holding its ground and indicating a flurry of activity in the cryptocurrency space.
Image: Shutterstock
With a measly 2.1% decline, Bitcoin is still the market leader with a $678 billion market value, demonstrating its unwavering dominance. This developing narrative is fueling conversations about scarcity and value as the circulation supply of Bitcoin gets closer to the 19 million mark, which is close to its finite cap of 21 million.
Meanwhile, a significant breakthrough occurred when Bernstein, an investment research firm that had previously expressed doubts about Bitcoin’s prospects, recently issued an optimistic prognosis. They projected that by 2025, the cryptocurrency may be worth $150,000, if there was a real chance that a spot Bitcoin ETF would acquire approval. It’s important to remember that Bitcoin reached its highest point in November 2021, briefly surpassing $69,000.
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