Tag: BTC

Bitcoin Accumulation: USDT Issuer Tether Goes On Massive 8,888 BTC Buying Spree
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In an encouraging development for the crypto space, Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin USDT, has doubled down on its Bitcoin investment momentum by acquiring a staggering 8,888 BTC, further diversifying its portfolio.

Tether Increases Its Bitcoin Holdings

Tether has recently made its third largest Bitcoin purchase, as the stablecoin issuer added a total of 8,888 BTC valued at $380 million at the time of purchase. This brings its total BTC holdings to 66,465 BTC, valued at $2.81 billion with an average buy price of $42,353.

This transaction was captured by BitInfoCharts data, which also showed the previous amounts of BTC accumulated by the blockchain-enabled platform. This recent purchase follows Tether’s Bitcoin investment strategy, in line with its vision to continuously strengthen its reserves by accumulating Bitcoin.

Earlier in May 2023, the stablecoin issuer announced in a blog post that it would regularly allocate 15% of its net realized operating profits toward increasing its BTC reserves. As of the end of March 2023, Tether held approximately $1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency, a $1.3 billion difference from its total BTC holdings presently.

According to reports from Dune Analytics, Tether has become the 11th largest Bitcoin holder, with Microstrategy, an American business intelligence service, surpassing Tether’s holdings with over 189,00 BTC accumulated. The other addresses in the top 10 rankings are owned by major crypto exchanges and governments, including Binance, Bitfinex and the US government.

Tether’s decision to double down on its Bitcoin investments signals its confidence in the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory. It also underscores the blockchain platform’s belief in the long-term potential of BTC as it aims to capitalize on Bitcoin’s potential growth by bolstering and diversifying its digital asset reserve.
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BTC price sitting at $41,354 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
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BTC Accumulation Race Amidst ETF Hype

Tether’s strategic Bitcoin purchase comes at a time when the crypto market is buzzing with excitement over Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Before the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, Tether had steadily increased its BTC portfolio, purchasing substantial quantities of BTC consistently. In March 2023, the stablecoin issuer bought 15,915 BTC and another 4,083 BTC between the months of May and September.

The timing of Tether’s BTC purchase suggests a proactive stance towards potentially seizing the opportunities brought forth by the Spot Bitcoin ETF market and the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April.

In addition to Tether’s large-scale BTC acquisition, Microstrategy is also another major player which has been continually increasing its BTC holdings. The business intelligence software company added a whopping 14,620 BTC to its portfolio in December 2023. At the time, the value of the purchase was about $615.7 million.

Other companies with large BTC holdings include Galaxy Digital and Elon Musk’s Tesla, as well as space exploration company SpaceX.

Featured image from Investopedia, chart from Tradingview.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Scott Matherson

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January 19, 2024
Analyst: Until Bitcoin Retests $61k, The BTC Top Is Not In

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Despite recent dips in price, Bitcoin is still on track for further gains, according to BitQuant. Based on technical analysis, the analyst predicts that the world’s most valuable coin will likely top out at $61,000, not $50,000, as some analysts have suggested.

Bitcoin Has Room For Growth, May Peak At $61,000

Sharing a screen grab on X, the analyst argues that based on Bitcoin’s history, prices tend to peak once it retests the 2X100 exponential moving average (EMA). So far, prices are lower, trading below $45,000, and the uptrend is valid despite the recent cool-off.

BTC is yet to retest the 2X100 EMA | Source: BitQuant on X

For this reason, BitQuant is confident that the recent drop was a temporary correction. Accordingly, BTC will likely extend gains, breaking above immediate resistance levels at $45,000 and even $50,000 in the short to medium term.

Still, it should be noted that the 2X100 EMA is a technical indicator and may lag. Since the indicator averages past prices, it might not be accurate, showing current events and expectations of prices.

To demonstrate, in the last bear market, Bitcoin prices dipped below the 2X100 EMA as the coin tanked to as low as $16,000 by November 2022. This development wasn’t expected by the community, taking adherents by surprise.

So far, looking at the Bitcoin price action in the daily chart, the path of least resistance is northwards. Though the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was expected to lift prices immediately, BTC unexpectedly crashed.

Bitcoin price trending higher on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

Bears appear in control, recently forcing prices below a short-term support level. For this reason, the immediate trend aligns with the January 12 bear engulfing bar. Making projections from this formation, BTC may, if bears take charge, drop to $40,000 or lower.

BTC Demand Surging

Even with this bearish outlook, the encouraging surge of capital to approved spot Bitcoin ETFs is bullish. Investor Fred Krueger notes that in the last five days alone, IBIT, the spot Bitcoin ETF issued by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, received $1 billion.

Looking at the pace of inflows, not only IBIT but other spot Bitcoin ETFs, Krueger believes BTC is undervalued at spot rates. The investor estimates that spot Bitcoin ETF issuers now hold over 650,000 BTC, up from 619,000 BTC as of January 1. This suggests that institutional investors are increasingly bullish on Bitcoin, and prices, though depressed, might recover going forward.

Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Dalmas Ngetich

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January 19, 2024
Why Did The Bitcoin Price Fall Below $41,000?
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Bitcoin dropped below $41,000 in the last 24 hours before making a recovery to rise above that level once again. This has become the current reality of the flagship crypto token’s price, which has continued to decline since the Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved. This is surprising considering that these funds were projected to help boost Bitcoin’s price upon launch.

Why Bitcoin’s Price Could Be Dipping

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart provided insight into what could be the reason for Bitcoin’s declining price as he revealed that Grayscale’s GBTC has experienced an outflow of $2.2 billion since its conversion to a Spot Bitcoin ETF. Crypto analytics platform Arkham Intelligence also revealed that Grayscale had moved 9000 BTC from their wallets to Coinbase, suggesting an imminent sale.

A sell pressure of such magnitude would no doubt affect Bitcoin’s price, and that seems to be a plausible explanation for why Bitcoin’s price has declined as of late. The CEO of Jan3 and Bitcoiner, Samson Mow, also echoed similar sentiments as he mentioned that the GBTC sell pressure was pushing prices down.

However, Mow believes that this trend “won’t be a long drawn out process,” as he predicts that many of GBTC’s investors won’t be able to offload their stocks because the “tax hit is too big.” JP Morgan will, however, beg to differ as a research report by the bank estimates that up to $3 billion could exit from the GBTC fund with many investors looking to take profit.

Crypto analyst Ash Crypto also recently elaborated on how profit-taking is one of the reasons that GBTC is seeing this significant amount of outflows. He explained that a lot of GBTC investors bought shares in the fund when it was trading at a 40% discount from Bitcoin, and now they are exiting their positions since that discount is now at 0%.
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BTC bulls make a play for control | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Actually Living Up To Hype

While Grayscale’s GBTC continues to bleed, other Spot ETFs look to be living up to the hype, with there being an impressive demand for these funds. Nate Geraci, the President of the ETF Store, revealed that two (IBIT and FBTC) out of the nine Spot ETFs (excluding GBTC) already hit $1 billion in assets under management (AUM) just after five trading days.

Specifically, BlackRock’s IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) was the first to achieve this milestone in just four trading days. Commenting on how impressive this was, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that only two other ETFs ($GLD and $BITO) had done this before now, and none of those funds faced such competition as IBIT did on launch day.

The demand for Spot ETFs is evidently there, seeing that two spot Bitcoin ETFs have already achieved a record that was held by only two other ETFs before now.

Featured image from Yahoo Finance, chart from Tradingview.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Best Owie

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January 19, 2024
Down Big: Crypto Scamming Numbers Reduced In 2023 – Report
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2023 started with a challenging overall landscape for the crypto market that continued throughout the rest of the year. However, the market saw a recovery with a spike in bullish sentiment and ended the year on a positive note.

Additionally, 2023 saw a decline in crypto scamming and crypto-related illicit activity compared to the previous year, as new data shows.

Illicit Activity Market Revenue Decline In 2023

American blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis released its 2024 Crypto Crime Report detailing the trends and figures that crypto-related illicit activities saw in 2023. The firm’s data shows a significant drop in value received in cryptocurrency addresses used for illicit activities, totaling $24.2 billion.

This is a considerable reduction compared to the 2022 updated estimate of $39.6 billion. In addition, the share of all crypto transaction volume associated with illicit activity reduced from 0.42% in 2022 to 0.34% in 2023.

According to the report, there seems to be a shift in the type of assets involved in crypto-related crime activities over the last two years, with Bitcoin no longer being the most used asset for most illicit transactions.

Alternately, stablecoins have become a more popular choice for crypto assets involved in illicit activities, as the report states. This increase could be attributed to the recent general growth of stablecoins’ share of all crypto activity overall.

The shift to stablecoins is not seen in every related crime, with activities, such as darknet market sales and ransomware extortion, still taking place predominately in Bitcoin.

Nonetheless, it’s worth noting that their issuers can trace stablecoins, and funds can be frozen when addresses are linked to illicit activities, as Tether did back in 2023.
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Illicit transaction volume by asset type, 2018-2023. Source: Chainalysis
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Trends That Defined Crypto-Related Crime In 2023

Chainalysis on-chain metrics suggest that scamming revenues have been trending globally since 2021. Although these crimes are still underreported, “overall, scamming is down, given broader market dynamics.”

Romance scams, such as ‘pig butchering,’ are among the most popular crypto scamming tactics used by scammers and are one of the biggest forms of related crime by transaction volume.

Regarding crypto hacking, the firm believes that “the decline in stolen funds is driven largely by a sharp dropoff in DeFi hacking,” it could represent “the reversal of a disturbing, long-term trend.” In 2023, crypto scamming and hacking revenue fell significantly, with the total revenue decreasing 29.2% and 54.3%, respectively.

In contrast to the overall trends, ransomware and darknet markets, two of the most prominent forms of related crime, saw revenues rise in 2023. Similarly, 2023’s growth in darknet market revenue comes after a 2022 decline in revenue.

The report shows that transactions with sanctioned-related entities and jurisdictions drive most of the illicit activity as entities and jurisdictions move towards using stablecoins and other crypto assets to bypass restrictions.

They accounted for a combined $14.9 billion transaction volume in 2023, representing 61.5% of all illicit transactions over the year. Chainalysis explains that:

Most of this total is driven by cryptocurrency services that were sanctioned by the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), or are located in sanctioned jurisdictions, and can continue to operate because they’re in jurisdictions where U.S. sanctions are not enforced.

Ultimately, the report addresses that not all sanction-related transactions are due to the illicit use of digital assets, as some of that $14.9 billion volume is related to the average users who reside in the sanctioned jurisdictions.
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Bitcoin trading at $41,906.6 on the hourly chart. Source BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

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Featured image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Rubmar Garcia

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January 18, 2024
HODLing Rewards: Average Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Now Carries 55% Profit
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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin long-term holders (the so-called HODLers) are now carrying an unrealized profit of 55% on average.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder NUPL Has Hit A Value Of 0.55

According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the profit that the BTC long-term holders are holding has gone up recently. The indicator of interest here is the “Net Unrealized Profit/Loss” (NUPL), which keeps track of the difference between the unrealized profit and loss that Bitcoin investors are carrying currently.

By “unrealized,” what’s meant here is that the profit or loss is yet to be harvested, as the investor carrying it hasn’t transferred their BTC on the blockchain yet. Once the holder would eventually move the coins, the profit/loss they were holding would then become “realized.”

In the context of the current discussion, the NUPL of only a specific segment of the market is of relevance: the long-term holders (LTHs). The LTHs are the Bitcoin holders who have been keeping their coins dormant on the network since at least 155 days ago.

These are the diamond hands of the market who are known to hold through periods of uptrends and downtrends alike, only selling when major market events take place.

“This includes periods when the market sets new ATHs, around cycle tops and bottoms, and during large shifts in market structure (e.g. Mt Gox, Halvings, and now the launch of spot ETFs),” explains the analytics firm.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin LTH NUPL over the history of the asset:
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The value of the metric seems to have been going up in recent weeks | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 3, 2024
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As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH NUPL has registered a rise in the last couple of months as the cryptocurrency’s spot price has gone through a notable surge.

“This metric reached 0.55 this week, which is meaningfully positive, and puts the average long-term investor at a 55% unrealized profit,” notes the report. Interestingly, BTC has registered some resistance around this level during the past.

As Glassnode has highlighted in the chart, the bulls encountered trouble here during August 2012, June 2016, July 2019, and August 2020. In all of these cases, the resulting top was only a local one, except for July 2019, where the recovery rally of the cycle hit a top that BTC wouldn’t surpass for a significant period of time.

Generally, investors in profit are more likely to sell their coins. The higher the gains that they hold, the stronger can be the allure of profit-taking. Thus, it’s not surprising to see that the LTHs holding significant profits has lead to selling pressure in the market during previous cycles.

The LTHs have indeed participated in some selling recently as well, as the data for their supply suggests.
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Looks like the value of the metric has seen some decline recently | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 3, 2024
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The Bitcoin LTH supply has now come down 75,000 BTC since the all-time high registered in November, while the opposite cohort, the short-term holders (STHs), have naturally gained some share.

“Whilst 75k BTC is a meaningful sum, it should also be viewed within the context of total LTH supply accounting for a whopping 76.3% of the circulating coin supply,” says the report.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has continued its recent sideways trend during the past day as its price currently floats around the $42,600 level.
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The price of the coin hasn't shown much volatility recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
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Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Keshav Verma

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January 17, 2024
Grayscale Transfers Almost 12,000 BTC To Coinbase, Bitcoin Price Reacts

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In a significant development that could potentially impact the Bitcoin price, Arkham Intelligence data reveals that Grayscale, the manager and owner of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), has been sending a significant amount of Bitcoin to Coinbase since the launch of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on January 12.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Initiates Substantial BTC Outflow

According to the data, four days ago, Grayscale initiated the first batch of BTC outflows from their holdings to the US-based exchange in four separate batches, totaling 4,000 BTC, which amounted to approximately $183 million. However, the asset manager resumed outflows from the Trust to the exchange on Tuesday.

A portion of Grayscale’s transfers to Coinbase. Source: Arkham

In a recent update, approximately three hours ago, the asset manager sent an additional 11,700 BTC to Coinbase, amounting to $491.4 million. This additional selling pressure could push the Bitcoin price to test lower support levels.

Furthermore, Bloomberg reports that investors have withdrawn over half a billion dollars from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust during the initial days of trading as an ETF.

According to Bloomberg’s data, outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust reached approximately $579 million, while the other nine spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed inflows totaling nearly $819 million.

Investors Shift Capital To ‘Lower-Cost’ Spot Bitcoin ETFs

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, noted that investors may be profit-taking following the ETF conversion. The flow data provides valuable insights into the ETF’s performance following SEC approval.

Although over $2.3 billion of GBTC shares were traded on its first day, the outflows indicate that a portion of that volume was due to selling. Seyffart anticipates that a significant amount of capital will enter other Bitcoin exposures.

The outflows from Grayscale’s ETF were somewhat expected. Bloomberg Intelligence had previously projected that the fund would experience outflows of over $1 billion in the coming weeks.

Some of this outflow can be attributed to investors shifting towards more cost-effective spot Bitcoin ETFs. With an expense ratio of 1.5%, GBTC is the most expensive US ETF directly investing in Bitcoin. In contrast, the VanEck Bitcoin Trust, the second-most expensive fund, charges 0.25%.

On the other hand, other spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT attracted nearly $500 million in the first two days of trading, while Fidelity’s FBTC received approximately $421 million.

According to Bloomberg, these inflows suggest strong demand for Bitcoin exposure in physically backed ETFs, even beyond potential seed funding from the fund issuers.

Bitcoin Price Finds Support At $42,000

Currently, the Bitcoin price remains unaffected by the news of Grayscale’s transfers to Coinbase. The leading cryptocurrency is trading at $43,100, showing a slight increase of 0.8% over the past 24 hours.

However, since the commencement of ETF trading, it is important to note that the Bitcoin price has experienced a significant retracement, declining by 8%. This decline can be attributed to profit-taking and selling pressure, with Grayscale’s involvement being noteworthy.

In the event of a further drop in the Bitcoin price, a significant support level has been established at $42,000. If this level is breached, the next key level for Bitcoin bulls to watch is $41,350, followed by a potential dip below $40,000.

The market is eagerly observing whether Grayscale and its BTC selloff will continue and how this will impact the Bitcoin price leading up to the scheduled halving event in April, which many consider to be the main catalyst for the year.

The daily chart shows BTC’s valuation at $43,100. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Ronaldo Marquez

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January 16, 2024
Anticipation Peaks As Bitcoin Halving Countdown Drops Below 100 Days: Will Prices Skyrocket?

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With the Bitcoin halving event drawing near, Data from crypto industry research and analytics platform, CryptoRank.io, has recently revealed that a significant majority of its users – 79% – are bullish about the upcoming halving, while 21% have bearish skepticism.

This sentiment echoes the historical trend where previous halvings have catalyzed bullish rallies in Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Halving Countdown And Price Trajectory

The Bitcoin halving, less than 100 days away, is a pivotal event in the crypto world. This process happens approximately every four years, and the reward for mining Bitcoin blocks will be halved.

This reduction in supply has historically led to price increases, with the previous halving in 2020 resulting in a 401.1% rise in Bitcoin’s price, according to CryptoRank.io. The anticipation of a similar price boom is palpable as the crypto community closely watches the countdown to this significant event.

Less Than 100 Days Left Until Bitcoin Halving 🗓

In just 14,117 blocks, #Bitcoin will reach the next milestone: the block reward will be cut by 50%. This event could be another catalyst for $BTC price growth.

Almost 79% of CryptoRank users are bullish on #BTC halving! What do… pic.twitter.com/R9442lfDEF

— CryptoRank.io (@CryptoRank_io) January 15, 2024

Despite the optimistic sentiment towards the halving, Bitcoin’s recent price action tells a different story. Following the initial excitement around the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin has been experiencing bearish price action.

In the past week alone, the cryptocurrency has seen a nearly 10% decline, eroding its gains after spot ETF approvals. This price behavior suggests a cooling off of the spot ETF hype and a period of consolidation in the absence of significant news or developments.

However, Bitcoin is currently hovering above the $43,000 mark, showing a minor recovery in the last 24 hours with a 1.8% increase.

BTC price is moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

BTC Price Prediction

This current price movement has not dampened the long-term bullish outlook of many analysts. Figures like Ash Crypto, a notable voice in the crypto trading community, advise a long-term perspective.

Ash Crypto’s has recently shared an analysis drawing parallels between Bitcoin and gold, suggesting that if Bitcoin emulates gold’s post-ETF market cap surge, it could potentially reach or even surpass half of gold’s market cap. Such a scenario could propel Bitcoin’s price to an estimated $500,000 in the coming years.

Moreover, Ash Crypto highlights Bitcoin’s potential impact on traditional financial markets, pointing out the immense global stock and bond market caps.

As BTC continues to gain legitimacy as a financial asset, it could capture a substantial share of these traditional market caps. This shift aligns with a new generation of investors who view Bitcoin as a novel investment opportunity.

Bitcoin is going to $500k after the
Spot ETF is approval. Here is the
evidence –

When Gold ETF was approved, it’s
mcap was around $2 Trillion. After
ETF gold saw huge inflows of liquidity
and reached $16 Trillion in few years.
( Don’t forget gold supply is not fixed,
we… pic.twitter.com/uE6XKkHWtU

— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) January 14, 2024

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Samuel Edyme

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January 16, 2024
Bitcoin To Reach $1 Million In Days To Weeks, Crypto Analyst
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The CEO of Jan3 and Bitcoiner, Samson Mow, has once again reiterated his ultra-bullish prediction for Bitcoin. The Bitcoin advocate noted that the ‘Max Pain Theory’ was still in play, and this is one of the reasons why he isn’t backing down from his assertion that Bitcoin will hit this price level sooner rather than later.

Bitcoin’s Rise To $1 Million To Happen “In Days To Weeks”

Samson Mow stated in an X (formerly Twitter) post that his “main prediction” is that Bitcoin’s run to $1 million will happen in “days to weeks.” However, he further claimed that the starting point for this meteoric rise has yet to be decided.

The analyst’s bullish prediction for Bitcoin stems from his belief in the max pain theory, which relates to a Bitcoin price that could cause most options traders to experience maximum loss. In Mow’s opinion, Bitcoin bulls have experienced this loss following the approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the bears could experience “some pain soon.”

Right before the approval order came in, Mow had predicted that Bitcoin was going to surge to $1 million in “days to weeks” and that most people were going to experience “max pain.” These ETFs also form part of the basis for why he believes that Bitcoin will hit this price level soon enough, as Mow foresees a huge demand for btc following this.

Mow says that the Bitcoin market is getting to a point where the existing supply will not meet current demand. He also alluded to the upcoming Bitcoin Halving, hinting that it could be one of the catalysts that will spark this parabolic rise in Bitcoin’s price. Interestingly, he had before now mentioned that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high (ATH) before the Halving event takes place.
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BTC bulls struggle to reclaim control | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
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A Market Adjustment Is Currently Ongoing

Mow also gave his opinion on the reason for Bitcoin’s recent decline as he noted that the market was simply adjusting. He further explained that GBTC holders were currently rotating out, which was pushing Bitcoin’s price down. He also alluded to how MicroStrategy’s stock was “trading below BTC par value.”

Therefore, the crypto community needs to be patient as “time is needed for everything to recalibrate,” Mow says. It shouldn’t be long for that to happen, though, as the crypto analyst claimed that the GBTC sell pressure “won’t be a long drawn out process.”

He believes that many of GBTC’s investors won’t be able to offload their stocks because the “tax hit is too big” and that Grayscale will eventually capitulate on its fees. The asset manager currently has the largest fee among all Spot Bitcoin ETF issuers, and this is believed to be the reason why its investors are offloading their shares and rotating to other funds.

Featured image from Bitcoin News, chart from Tradingview.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Scott Matherson

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January 15, 2024
Bitcoin To $34,000? Analyst Predicts Next Move For BTC With This Chart Pattern
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Bitcoin had a surprisingly underwhelming price performance over the past week despite the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving the trading of spot BTC ETFs. The price of the flagship cryptocurrency almost broke into $49,000 at the peak of this positive news but has since retraced back below $43,000.

Ali Martinez, a popular crypto analyst on the X platform, has offered insight into the current market climate of Bitcoin, highlighting that the cryptocurrency’s price may face further downward pressure over the coming weeks.

Analyst Forecasts 20% Price Drop For BTC

In a recent post on X, the crypto pundit shared an update on his analysis of the Bitcoin’s price chart on the three-day timeframe. On January 4, Martinez initially identified an ascending parallel channel, which seems to be governing the Bitcoin price action since September 2023.

In price analysis, an ascending parallel channel is a technical analysis pattern that features two parallel upward-sloping trend lines. While it is mostly a bullish chart pattern, the ascending parallel channel can signal a short-term bearish move or even a trend reversal.
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BTC price in an ascending parallel channel on the three-day timeframe | Source: Ali_charts/X
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Martinez noted in his post that the current setup appears to be holding true after the Bitcoin price faced rejection from the parallel channel’s upper boundary at $48,000. Following this price correction, the analyst has predicted $34,000 at the channel’s lower boundary as the natural next stop for the premier cryptocurrency.

A downward move to $34,000 would represent a significant 20% decline from Bitcoin’s current price point. However, according to Martinez’s analysis, it might not be looking all gloomy for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

On the bright side, the analyst expects a quick recovery for the Bitcoin price after the downward spiral to $34,000. Martinez said that the pioneer crypto could make a rebound back to the upper boundary at $57,000.

Bitcoin Price Overview

As of press time, the Bitcoin price stands at $42,909, reflecting a negligible 0.6% decline in the past 24 hours. The premier cryptocurrency has struggled to hold above $43,000 since experiencing a massive downturn to below $42,000 on Friday.

Meanwhile, BTC’s profits since the turn of the year have been cut back to a mere 1.6%, putting the bullish future of the coin into question. Bitcoin is down by nearly 3% on the weekly timeframe, according to data from CoinGecko.

Nevertheless, BTC maintains its position as the largest asset in the cryptocurrency sector, with a market capitalization of roughly $841 billion.
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Bitcoin price hovers around $43,000 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
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Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Opeyemi Sule

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January 14, 2024
The Bitcoin Price Could Drop To $37,000 Before The Halving
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The price of Bitcoin has been on a massive bullish momentum since the approval and launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, a crypto analyst, Jason Pizzino, predicts a temporary halt in the growing trajectory, citing Bitcoin’s proximity to a crucial resistance point that could result in a significant price drop.

Analyst Foresees Bitcoin Price Correction

In a recent YouTube video published on Friday, January 12, Pizzino shared his insights into the current market conditions of Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency. According to the analyst, the price of the top crypto is expected to drop by 20% to 22%, reaching possible support levels of $37,000 to $39,000 before the Bitcoin halving.

The halving which is expected to take place in April 2024 is an event that would see Bitcoin mining rewards cut by half to reduce the number of new coins entering the market. This reduction effectively decreases the cryptocurrency’s total supply and supposedly increases its value through scarcity.

Pizzino substantiated his predictions by pointing out that BTC is currently trading at a key resistance level in the bull market that could result in a significant price correction. He acknowledged that the excitement surrounding Spot Bitcoin ETFs has successfully pushed the cryptocurrency to its recent highs. However, the crypto analyst also highlighted a possibility of complacency following the present hype which could lead to a major price correction.
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Bitcoin slides back into the $42K territory. Chart: TradingView.com
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While the crypto has experienced an impressive uptrend in recent months, Pizzino emphasized the significance of understanding historical price patterns and market behaviors. He stressed the importance of being prepared for any potential correction or retracement in the price of Bitcoin.

BTC Plunges Below $42,000

Following the official approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the price of Bitcoin has been skyrocketing. The cryptocurrency surged to $49,000 on Thursday, January 11, after Spot Bitcoin ETFs had launched and investors had started trading officially.

However, Bitcoin’s price experienced a massive downturn recently after news of Vanguard restricting its customers from trading Spot Bitcoin ETFs on its platform spread. As a result, the cryptocurrency experienced a price drop below $42,000, falling more than $7000 short of its 2024 peak of $49,000.

Presently, the coin has recouped some of its lost gains and at the time of writing it’s current trading price is at $43,158.52 according to CoinMarketCap. While the dip is perceived as a temporary setback for the crypto market, it is also regarded as an opportunity to enter the market at more affordable price levels.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Scott Matherson

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January 13, 2024
Bitcoin Price Suffers Post-Spot ETF Blues, Drops 7% To $43,200

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The introduction of Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has triggered a significant sell-off, leading to a sharp decline in the Bitcoin price.

After gaining approval and commencing trading on Thursday, the ETFs have prompted a “sell the news” event, causing Bitcoin’s value to plummet from its initial trading price of $46,500 at the time of approval to a low of $43,200 within a matter of hours on Friday.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced a 7% drop. Its gains over the past 30 days have been limited to a mere 4%, erasing much of the progress made during that period.

Additionally, as selling pressure continues to mount following the approval, there are indications that the Bitcoin price may face further downward pressure.

Bitcoin Price Under Pressure

CryptoQuant analyst J.A. Maartunn observed significant sell orders in Bitcoin’s two-week chart on Wednesday. Notably, three clusters of sell orders were positioned between $46,100 and $48,000, comprising stacks of 755, 1,031, and 794 BTC, respectively.

According to the CryptoQuant analyst, such patterns are typically associated with market tops, unless these orders are later withdrawn or executed.

This influx of sell orders may help explain the lackluster response to the ETF approvals until now, as it appears that selling pressure has been building up. However, the situation has intensified even further.

According to Maartunn, additional sell orders were detected on Friday, indicating that the seller is not yet finished. Two substantial sell orders have been placed just above the current Bitcoin price: one for 894 BTC at $44,000 and another for 1,071 BTC at $45,100.

Sell orders placed in BTC’s 2-week chart since Wednesday. Source: Maartunn on X

These developments suggest that market participants are taking advantage of the ETF news to offload their Bitcoin holdings, leading to increased selling pressure and a subsequent price decline.

The market’s stabilization following this period of heightened selling pressure remains uncertain. The introduction of ETFs was believed to bring about heightened institutional interest and potentially drive up the Bitcoin price.

However, it is important to note that the impact of these ETFs is expected to unfold over the long term, rather than being evident within days, weeks, or even months. It will likely take years to fully gauge the effects and consequences of ETF integration on the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin’s Bullish Structure Remains Intact

Amidst the ongoing selling pressure, several support lines may potentially halt the downtrend and bring positive news for the Bitcoin price and BTC bulls.

Although Bitcoin has already lost its $44,000 support level, there is another crucial threshold at $42,700 that could prevent further decline. If this level holds, there is a chance for Bitcoin to regain the $43,000 mark and reverse the downward momentum.

The daily chart shows BTC’s price drop. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

If the $42,700 support is breached, additional support lines come into play. These include $42,300, $41,700, and $41,200, which act as the last barriers before a potential test of the $40,000 support level. The $40,000 mark holds significance as it represents the final support before a potential dip towards $38,000.

However, there is a positive aspect for Bitcoin bulls to consider. The current bullish structure of the cryptocurrency remains intact as long as the dip does not breach the $29,900 mark.

This level marked the beginning of the current bullish uptrend, and its preservation would ensure the maintenance of the overall positive market structure.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Ronaldo Marquez

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January 12, 2024
Bitcoin Erases $49,000 ETF Rally As Coinbase Users Take To Selling
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Bitcoin had earlier shown a sharp rally toward the $49,000 mark, but the asset was quick to retrace the entire surge as the Coinbase Premium turned negative.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Plunged Into Negative During Past Day

As pointed out by CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn in a post on X, the Coinbase Premium Gap has now turned notably negative after being mostly positive for the last few days.

The “Coinbase Premium Gap” refers to the difference between the Bitcoin prices listed on the cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair).

This indicator’s value basically provides hints about how the buying or selling behaviors on these two largest platforms in the sector differ from each other right now.

When the metric has a positive value, it means that the price listed on Coinbase is higher than on Binance currently. Such a trend implies the former platform’s users are participating in a higher amount of buying (or lower amount of selling) than the Binance users.

On the other hand, the indicator being positive suggests that Binance might be observing a higher degree of buying pressure at the moment as the price listed on the exchange is greater.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap since the start of the year:
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Looks like the value of the metric has taken a plunge during the past day | Source: @JA_Maartunn on X
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As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has observed a sharp plunge down into the negative territory during the past day or so. Before this plummet, the indicator had been mostly at positive values since the start of the year.

There were a few dips into the red zone earlier as well, but the indicator only attained minor negative values during these drops. This time, though, the premium is down to significantly negative levels.

The price surges this year were being driven by the buyers on Coinbase, as the price rose every time the premium did as well. Coinbase is popularly known to be used by US institutional investors, so the green premium suggested that these large entities were buying, most likely in anticipation of the ETFs, which finally gained approval on January 10th.

A while after this approval, BTC went on to sharply rally toward the $49,000 level, but the asset’s run was very short-lived as its price plummeted hard back towards the price prior to the move, thus erasing all the gains.

The Coinbase Premium Gap had been notably positive alongside the surge, but the indicator then showed its plunge into the negative territory alongside this quick retrace. It would appear that some American institutional traders may have used the opportunity to harvest their profits.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been moving sideways since the quick rally and drawdown, as its price is still floating around the $45,800 level.
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The price of the coin seems to have shown an overall trend of consolidation recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
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Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Keshav Verma

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January 12, 2024
2024 Bitcoin Preview: Crypto Analyst Weighs In On BTC Price Action

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Amid the excitement surrounding the approval of Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), Polish crypto analyst Adrian Zduńczyk has shed his insights on the price action of BTC in 2024 and beyond.

Bitcoin Price Action In 2024 And Beyond

Zduńczyk, who is the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Birb Nest shared his insights in a recent interview with Thinking Crypto founder Tony Edward. In the interview, Zduńczyk revealed his short-term expectations for Bitcoin, the impact of ETF approval, and post-halving expectations for price.

Zduńczyk began by drawing attention to the recent surge in Bitcoin prices while also noting a minor decline. He emphasized the significance of differentiating between speculations, expectations, and actual trading.

He further talked about the use of technical indicators to spot possible market reversals. These include the rate of change and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Zduńczyk noted how the market trend has persisted, pointing out crucial metrics such as the 200-day moving average. According to him, the 200-day moving average has been indicating favorable trends since the year started. The price of Bitcoin has increased by a notable 190% year to date, despite a slight correction. This indicates the strength of the bull market that has been present since January.

When asked about the impact of Bitcoin spot ETF on the asset’s price, he highlighted seasonal trends in Bitcoin’s performance by establishing a correlation with historical data. He explained that he would rather go with the facts than opinions. This is because “it is difficult to comment on opinions,” which by definition is “different from the facts.”

Due to this, Zduńczyk has suggested that the community should focus on the facts this time rather than opinions. This is because facts rely on seasonal studies and prices do the same.

Observing the upward tendency in January over time, he provided an explanation of the seasonal pattern in the January barometer. As a result, he proposed an 80% chance of a favorable year if January ends well.

All-Time High Price Target Post BTC Halving

Zduńczyk provided insights into the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in 2025. He made this claim after analyzing its past four-year cycles and their relationship to the presidential stock market cycle.

The CEO stated that Bitcoin has always experienced “powerful rallies” after each halving. He further backed up his claims with a chart demonstrating BTC price rallies since the halving began.

BTC price performances in previous halving cycles | Source: Thinking Crypto on YouTube

Furthermore, Zduńczyk highlighted that it would not be shocking to see a three-to-five-fold increase following the halving price. However, he has expressed caution as no one knows exactly how high Bitcoin will go.

So far, Zduńczyk predicts an all-time high price for BTC between $150,000 to $200,000 post-halving. In addition, he stated that the trends are unprecedented as the price could go higher than that or even lower.

BTC trading at $47,105 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Godspower Owie

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January 11, 2024
BREAKING: SEC Approves All 11 Spot Bitcoin ETFs, BTC Price Holds Steady At $46,000

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In a groundbreaking development for the cryptocurrency and Bitcoin market, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved all 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs submitted by the world’s largest asset managers.

Bitcoin ETFs Align With Exchange Act Standards

In its official filing, the SEC stated that each proposal sought to list and trade shares of a trust that would hold spot Bitcoin, either wholly or partially.

Importantly, the commission found that the proposals were consistent with the provisions of the Exchange Act and the applicable rules and regulations governing national securities exchanges.

Specifically, the SEC determined that the proposals adhere to the requirements outlined in Section 6(b)(5) of the Exchange Act, which includes preventing fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices to protect investors and the public interest.

SEC’s approval announcement on January 10. Source: SEC’s official filing

The approval of these Bitcoin ETFs marks an important milestone in the maturation of the cryptocurrency market.

However, despite the significant news, the Bitcoin price has remained stable at the $46,200 level, defying some expectations of immediate price surges following the SEC’s decision.

Nevertheless, it is important to note that the true impact of these index funds is anticipated to unfold over the coming years, once institutions and retail investors fully enter the market.

New Era For Bitcoin

According to the official filing, trading for the approved Bitcoin ETFs is scheduled to commence tomorrow, enabling market participants to gain exposure to Bitcoin through regulated and traditional investment vehicles.

The introduction of these Bitcoin ETFs is expected to attract a broader range of investors, including institutional players, and contribute to increased liquidity and market efficiency.

Ultimately, as institutional and retail investor participation grows, the Bitcoin market is poised for significant developments and further mainstream adoption.

The approval of these ETFs represents a pivotal moment in the ongoing integration of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial system. It sets the stage for future growth, innovation, and the potential for broader acceptance of digital assets in the investment landscape.

The daily chart shows BTC’s price has remained stable despite the SEC’s ETF approvals. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Ronaldo Marquez

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January 10, 2024
Bitcoin ETF Drama Reveals Post-Approval Price Trend: Experts

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The Bitcoin market was swept into a frenzy following an alleged hack of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) X account, falsely claiming the approval of 11 spot ETFs. This misinformation led to a rollercoaster in Bitcoin’s price, which initially soared from $46,800 to $48,000, only to crash to $45,000 within a span of 20 minutes.

This incident has become a pivotal moment for market analysts, providing insights into how the market might react to today’s potential Bitcoin spot ETF approvals in the short term. So here’s what experts from K33 Research, QCP Capital, and Daan Crypto Trades have to say.

#1 K33 Research: Approval Will Be ‘Sell-The-News” Event

Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, provided an in-depth analysis of the market’s reaction to the erroneous announcement. He observed that the market’s immediate response was indicative of a tendency towards a ‘sell-the-news’ reaction. The initial surge in Bitcoin’s price was quickly met with a flood of long positions, causing a significant price fluctuation.

“The market showed its hands yesterday; the ETF approval rehearsal favors a sell-the-news reaction. Immediately after the announcement, longs quickly crowded the market, enforcing a whipsaw in the following minutes,” Lunde stated.

Lunde also pointed out that until the SEC’s clarification, the market largely accepted the announcement at face value, triggering an organic reaction. He outlined the sequence of events, noting a 2.4% increase in Bitcoin’s price within four minutes post-announcement, followed by a 1.4% decrease in 14 minutes until Bloomberg debunked the approval news.

Timeline of the Bitcoin ETF drama | Source: X @VetleLunde

The market eventually stabilized when Gensler confirmed the hack, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to regulatory news and rumors.

#2 QCP Capital: Warning Sign For Bitcoin Traders

QCP Capital, in their “QCP Market Update – 10 Jan 24,” reflected on the bizarre nature of the event with a mix of humor and analysis. “We are on the cusp of a BTC Spot ETF approval, and what transpired in the last 24 hours is something you can’t make up,” their update began.

They pointed out the lukewarm initial reaction to the ‘approval,’ suggesting that the market might have already priced in the possibility of an actual ETF approval.

“The initial reaction to the ‘approval’ was muted with BTC being unable to trade out of the resistance area. We take this as a warning sign that an approval is mostly priced in and there may not be a huge rally post the approval,” QCP warned.

QCP Capital also focused on the implications of this event for future market trends. “The restrained response to the faux approval signals a warning – the actual approval of a Bitcoin ETF might not trigger the expected rally,” they observed, also pointing to the current market dynamics, such as the elevated options volatility and spot-futures basis spread. Notably, the firm sees Bitcoin’s next support at $40,000 to $42,000, and resistance around 48.500.

Daan Crypto Trades: ETH/BTC Could See A Spike

Daan Crypto Trades provided a concise but insightful analysis. “The false ETF approval news was a litmus test for the market’s post-approval direction,” he commented. The analysis highlights the pattern of Bitcoin’s price spiking and then fully retracing following the fake announcement.

“This pattern could well repeat upon actual ETF approval, but with more pronounced selling pressure,” he suggested. Daan Crypto Trades also touched on the broader market implications, especially for the ETH/BTC ratio, which started rallying immediately after the fake announcement.

He further remarked:

ETH/BTC started rallying straight away which is also what we’ve been looking for. I think today we might get one more small spike down on ETH/BTC as BTC spikes up but after that I don’t see much holding back the ETH/BTC ratio anymore. Especially if BTC cools off post ETF.

At press time, BTC traded at $45,346.

BTC price continues uptrend, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Jake Simmons

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January 10, 2024
Bitcoin Blasts Off As Institutionals Continue Buying On Coinbase
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Bitcoin has observed a sharp rally beyond the $47,000 level as data shows buying pressure on Coinbase has displayed no signs of letting off.

Bitcoin Has Surged More Than 4% In Last 24 Hours As ETF Deadline Nears

After the asset’s indecisiveness over the last few days, the cryptocurrency has appeared to have picked its direction in the last 24 hours, as its price has increased sharply.

At the peak of this surge, the coin had crossed beyond the $47,300 mark, but since then, the coin has registered some pullback as it’s now down to $46,500. The below chart shows how Bitcoin has performed during the last few days.
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Looks like the asset's price has blasted off in the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
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With this surge, the coin is up over 4% in the last 24 hours. The only cryptocurrencies in the top 20 market cap list that have attained better returns during this period are Solana (SOL) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

This latest rally to levels not visited since March 2022 has come for the cryptocurrency as the US SEC deadline for a decision on BTC spot ETFs is approaching fast.

With the expectation in the market widely being that the ETFs would get approved, it’s not surprising that buyers may be jumping in, expecting the asset to rally further after the ETFs start trading.

Data of an indicator could also point towards large entities being involved in accumulation in this leadup to the day of decision.

BTC Coinbase Premium Gap Has Been Positive For More Than A Week Now

As CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn pointed out in a post on X, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has been positive for several consecutive days.

The “Coinbase Premium Gap” refers to a metric that keeps track of the difference between the Bitcoin prices listed on cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair).

This indicator’s value tells us about the difference in the buying (or selling) behaviors on the two largest platforms in the sector. Below is a chart showing the recent trend in this metric’s 14-day simple moving average (SMA).
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The value of the metric seems to have been green since a while now | Source: @JA_Maartun on X
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As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has been positive for almost 2024, with only one dip in the metric coming on the first day of the year.

This suggests that the buying pressure on Coinbase has been greater than on Binance for over a week now. US-based institutional investors widely use the former, while the latter hosts more global traffic.

Thus, this indicates that large institutional traders have possibly been going shopping recently. Another indicator that suggests accumulation from the whales is the “large holders netflow” metric from IntoTheBlock, which has displayed positive spikes recently.
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The data for the BTC large holders netflow since the start of the year | Source: IntoTheBlock on X
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“Large holders bought the dip! Bitcoin holders holding >1% of the supply accumulated more than 14k BTC over the past week as prices dipped below $43k,” explains IntoTheBlock.

Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com, IntoTheBlock.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Keshav Verma

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January 9, 2024
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Could Trade 8% Above Fair Value: Expert

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In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Reggie Browne, Co-Global Head of ETF Trading and Sales at GTS, shared insightful predictions regarding the potential trading dynamics of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Browne foresees these ETFs trading at a significant premium, estimating as high as 8% above their net asset value (NAV).

Why Spot Bitcoin ETFs Could Trade At A 8% Premium To NAV

“I think the spreads will be very competitive and tight. The market maker community is resilient and prepared to offer a lot of liquidity,” Browne stated. However, he highlighted a critical concern, saying, “I think it’s going to be the premium to NAV… US broker dealers can’t trade Bitcoin cash inside their broker dealers. So you’re going to have to trade hedges over futures and trade it on a premium, and then take that off, and I think there is a lot of complexity there.”

This complexity, according to Browne, arises from the cash creation model forced by the SEC and regulatory constraints that limit direct Bitcoin trading within US broker dealers, compelling them to rely on futures for hedging. He expressed, “What I think, potentially, you could see 8% of premium above fair value. It’s a big number, but let’s see how it plays out.”

Additionally, Browne touched upon the subject of in-kind creations and redemptions, aspects that were points of contention during negotiations with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Despite the challenges, he remains optimistic about their future implementation. “Absolutely, I think this was really just to get the ball moving… the in-kind will come after we climb a couple of mountains,” Browne remarked.

Echoing Browne’s sentiments, Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF expert, commented on the potential premium, expressing surprise at the anticipated high rate. He drew a comparison with Canada’s spot ETFs, which are also cash creations but have much smaller premiums, despite occasional spikes.

[Browne] thinks bid-ask spreads on spot ETFs will be tight but (thx to cash only creations) premiums could be as high as 8%. That’s really high and I’m a bit shocked tbh. For context Canada spot ETFs are cash creations and their premiums are very small.. albeit the occasional 2% day.

The crypto community is closely monitoring the SEC as it approaches a critical deadline to decide on the first batch of several spot Bitcoin ETF applications by tomorrow, January 10. Prominent asset managers such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark Invest, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie are among those with pending applications.

Browne believes that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs could attract substantial investor interest, projecting massive inflows over the first year. “I expect investors to add at least $2 billion to spot Bitcoin ETFs within the first 30 days they trade, if approved. For the full year, I see $10 billion-$20 billion in the funds,” he noted. This prediction underscores the significant interest and potential market impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

At press time, BTC traded at $46,768.

BTC price rallied to $47,000, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Jake Simmons

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January 9, 2024
Bitcoin Spot ETF: VanEck’s Head Of Research Says BlackRock Has $2 Billion In Investments Lined Up
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VanEck’s Head of Research, Matthew Sigel, recently hinted that the Spot Bitcoin ETF of the world’s asset manager, BlackRock, could see a record-breaking amount of inflows upon launch. This comes as an approval order by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) looks imminent.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Could See Inflows Of Over $2 Billion

Sigel mentioned on an X (formerly Twitter) space hosted by the media platform, The Block, that he heard from a reliable source that BlackRock has “more than $2 billion lined up in week one.”

This investment capital is said to be coming from existing Bitcoin holders who are looking to increase their exposure to the flagship cryptocurrency.

He quickly added that he couldn’t be 100% certain of this information. However, it is a possibility, considering that issuers would be looking to get investors that can inject huge sums into their respective ETFs.

Sigel went on to highlight how significant it could be if BlacRock’s ETF indeed saw $2 billion of inflows in the first week of trading, saying that it would “blow away” their initial projections. They estimate that the Spot Bitcoin ETFs could see $2.5 billion of inflows in the first quarter of trading. Meanwhile, they believe the market could grow to $40 billion in the next two years.
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BTC price struggles to reclaim $44,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
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Not Out Of Place For BlackRock

Commenting on the possibility of BlackRock seeing this significant amount of inflows, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that such an occurrence isn’t unusual for the world’s largest asset manager. According to him, BlackRock is known for lining up and injecting big cash into new ETFs on the first day of trading. That way, it registers as volume for them.

Balchunas further noted that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, seeing $2 billion of inflows, would shatter all records relating to first-day and week volume for an ETF. Interestingly, BlackRock already holds the record for the most successful ETF launch going by the amount of inflows recorded on day one.

The world’s asset manager further dominates the top 10 list of most successful ETF launches. Balchunas, however, clarified that those inflows were mainly lined up cash and not organic, as they were readily available before the ETF launched. He also mentioned that he got a second source to confirm Sigel’s claims that BlackRock has a big day one lined up.

Meanwhile, the Bloomberg analyst provided an update on when the approval order from the SEC was likely to come. Citing multiple sources, he stated that the SEC is lining up all issuers for a potential launch on January 11.

Featured image from Decrypt, chart from Tradingview.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Scott Matherson

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January 6, 2024
Bitcoin Flash Crash: Crypto Market Witnesses $2.5 Billion Inflow Following Recent Downturn
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The past week was largely defined by the Bitcoin price climbing above $45,800 for the first time in over 20 months, marking a great start to the year. However, the premier cryptocurrency soon experienced a sharp price pullback due to negative news about the BTC spot (ETF).

Interestingly, the latest on-chain data has revealed that investors seem not to have completely lost faith in Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

$2.5 Billion Flows Into Crypto Market Following Bitcoin Crash

In a post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has offered on-chain insight into the aftermath of the crash that affected Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. The pundit noted in his post that a substantial amount of funds flooded back into the sector a day after the market downturn.

This revelation was based on on-chain data from blockchain analytics platform Glassnode. The relevant indicator here is the “positive 30-day capital inflows”, which tracks the net influx of capital into the crypto market over a 30-day period.
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Chart showing aggregate market realized value net position change | Source: Ali_charts/X
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The chart above shows that a significant amount of funds have been entering the cryptocurrency market over the past few months. According to Glassnode’s data, more than $2.5 billion flowed back into the cryptocurrency market on Thursday, January 4, bringing the positive 30-day capital inflows to about $27.5 billion.

This latest inflow of capital into the market offers insight into the positive shift in sentiment and market condition. It basically signals renewed investor confidence in crypto assets following a short period of uncertainty and price correction.

As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at $43,661, reflecting a 0.2% decline in the past 24 hours. However, the market leader seems to be recovering well, with $44,000 not too far out of reach.

How BTC Holders Reacted To The Market Downturn

A recent analysis shows how various classes of Bitcoin investors reacted to the negative ETF news and the subsequent decline. This evaluation was based on the Spent Output Age Bands USD (SOAB) indicator on the CryptoQuant analytics platform.

The investors were divided into five classes based on the age of their holdings. According to the analysis, short-term holders who fell within the 1-week-to-1-month and 1-month-to-3-month classes exited the market at break-even and profits, respectively.

Meanwhile, long-term holders who purchased Bitcoin in the first half of 2023, falling between the 6-month-to-12-month class, dumped about $7.6 billion worth of BTC. The 1-year-to-5-year holder class, on the other hand, barely made a move after the market downturn.
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Bitcoin price at $43,690 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
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Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Opeyemi Sule

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January 6, 2024
Bitcoin “Outlook Remains Bullish,” As Long As This Stays True: Analyst
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An analyst has explained that the outlook for Bitcoin should remain bullish as long as the cryptocurrency’s price remains above this level.

Bitcoin Has Strong On-Chain Support Above $41,800

In a new post on X, analyst Ali talked about the various BTC support and resistance levels from an on-chain perspective. In on-chain analysis, the strength of any support or resistance level depends on the amount of Bitcoin that the investors bought at said level.

The chart below shows what the distribution of the different BTC price ranges currently looks like based on the concentration of holder cost basis that they carry.
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How the various price ranges near the current spot price are looking like in terms of support and resistance | Source: @ali_charts on X
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As displayed in the above graph, the $41,800 to $43,100 range hosts the acquisition price of most Bitcoin out of all the price ranges listed. To be more specific, about 2.4 million addresses acquired 1 million BTC within this range.

The cost basis is naturally of immense significance for any investor, as the spot price retesting can flip their profit-loss situation. As such, holders become more likely to show some move when a retest like this happens.

A holder in profit before the retest might tend to buy more when the retest happens, as they might believe this same level that proved profitable earlier would do so again.

On the other hand, loss holders might want to sell at their break-even level since they may fear the cryptocurrency going down again, putting them underwater again.

These buying and selling moves aren’t enough to move the market when just a few investors are making them, but if a large number of investors have their cost basis inside a narrow range, the reaction could become significant.

Since those above $41,800 to $43,100 range is dense with investors, it should be an essential on-chain range. The spot price is floating above the range so that these prices could act as a support barrier for the asset. Based on this, Ali explains, “as long as Bitcoin maintains its position above $41,800, the outlook remains bullish.”

The chart shows that the Bitcoin ranges above the price aren’t carrying the cost basis of that many investors. This could imply that there isn’t much resistance ahead for the coin.

The analyst notes that this lack of major resistance also strengthens the potential for the cryptocurrency to stay at the current levels or push towards the higher ones.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been gradually making its way back up after the recent crash, with its price climbing towards the $43,800 mark. The below chart shows how the asset has performed during the last few days.
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BTC has gone through a bit of a rollercoaster since the new year has started | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
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Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, IntoTheBlock.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Keshav Verma

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January 5, 2024