Tag: BTC

Bitcoin Traders Brace for Impact: QCP Capital Signals Incoming Price Drop—Here’s Why

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Recent analysis from QCP Capital indicates a marked shift in derivatives market sentiment, signaling that options traders are bracing for further declines in Bitcoin value.

Dissecting the Bearish Sentiment

The derivatives market has experienced a notable shift over the past day, with the implied volatility in Bitcoin options decreasing.

This indicates that traders are worrying more about the possible downside risks. According to a note from analysts at QCP Capital, the spread between call and put options has tightened by three volatility points. QCP Capital noted:

While spot prices remain muted, the options market is painting a different picture. 26 Jul vols made an impressive 8-vol rally with RR dipping by 3 vols signalling caution to the downside.

This contraction reflects growing market caution as traders prepare for possible Bitcoin price declines amid increasing sell-pressure. Notably, the US government moving Bitcoin to exchanges like Coinbase and MtGox creditors beginning to receive their redistributed assets via Kraken, are contributing factors.

These movements have injected substantial Bitcoin into the market, potentially suppressing prices further. QCP Capital’s analysts added:

With the ETH Spot ETF potentially not impacting prices on the outset, coupled with potential selling pressure from the US Government and Mt Gox, prices may remain subdued until momentum builds up leading to the elections.

The Positive Bitcoin Signal

Amid the bearish sentiment from the derivative market shared by QCP Capital, some other Bitcoin metric suggest quite an opposite sentiment—Bullish.

According to a CryptoQuant author on the QuickTake platform, there has been a significant increase in Bitcoin withdrawals from Kraken.

This is particularly noteworthy as it comes at a time when Mt.Gox creditors are receiving their funds from the Kraken exchange. The analyst noted:

This could be a positive signal, indicating that they are not selling and are preparing to hold their coins, moving them from the exchange to cold wallets. Although the volume is not high, over 5K $BTC (USD 329.192.018$) have been withdrawn in the last 24 hours.

Meanwhile, regardless of the mixed signals from both QCP Capital and the CryptoQuant analyst, BTC itself is still maintaining a crucial mark price above $66,000.

Although the asset briefly traded at $67,073 earlier today, Bitcoin has now retraced slightly, trading for $66,705 at the time of writing.

According to prominent crypto analyst RektCapital, so far, not only has BTC successfully retested the old all-time high (ATH) major resistance area, but the asset now has a chance to “form a new Higher High for the first time in months.”

#BTC

Not only has the retest been successful…

But Bitcoin also has a chance to form a new Higher High for the first time in months$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/2sMk2eekFN pic.twitter.com/wHubSs1a9Q

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 22, 2024

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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Samuel Edyme

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July 24, 2024
Ethereum ETFs Launch About To Kickstart The Altseason?

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The long-awaited Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are finally live, registering over $100 million in volume in the first 15 minutes. Investors expect to see the launch’s impact on the crypto market, while some market watchers believe ETH ETF’s performance will kickstart the Altcoin season.

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Ethereum Spot ETFs Are Officially Live

On Monday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave the final nod to Ethereum spot ETFs, setting the launch date for Tuesday, July 23. After the approval, investors raised the alarm following some online reports.

Per Whale Alert, Grayscale has transferred $1 billion in ETH to Coinbase Institutional. This led many investors to fear that the digital asset manager’s transaction would add selling pressure to the asset and affect its price performance ahead of the launch.

However, ETF expert Eric Balchunas offered some relief to investors after pointing out that Grayscale didn’t move the tokens to dump them. The firm transferred the 292,262 Ethereum “from $ETHE to its mini-me = $ETH.” Balchunas considers it “a new variable in this race that we didn’t have in the btc race.”

The initial numbers have been released now that the highly anticipated products are live. Balchunas shared on X that the Ethereum ETFs saw $112 million in the first 15 minutes of trading. This number increased to $361 million total after 90 minutes.

ETH ETFs’ initial volume after 90 minutes. Source: Eric Balchunas on X

The Bloomberg expert praised the volume, calling it a “solid showing” regardless of being 20-25% of Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs numbers. Despite the healthy performance, ETH remains hovering between the $3,440 and $3,540 price range.

Are ETH And Altcoins About To Take Off?

Ahead of the launch, some market watchers anticipated that the ETFs’ performance could kickstart an upswing for Altcoins. According to several analysts, the Altcoins chart shows similarities to the 2016-2017 performance, suggesting that the Altseason is “brewing.”

To Crypto Jelle, “Altcoins are still following the traditional bull market preparation playbook.” Per the macro chart, altcoins broke from the accumulation zone and chopped around key support levels during previous cycles.

ETH’s chart shows similarities to previous bull runs. Source: Crypto Jelle on X

The “pre-bull market consolidation” was followed by a take-off that propelled cryptocurrency prices to new highs. Jelle pointed out altcoins are currently in the consolidation zone, similar to past cycles. He also suggested a new take-off “shouldn’t take long” after Ethereum ETFs’ launch.

Crypto trader MikyBull also highlighted the similarities between the previous cycles, which suggest that a “huge Altseason is brewing.” To the trader, the recent “fake out” made investors believe that this cycle’s Altseason “has been written off,” but he expects altcoins to “pull a 2017 kind of explosive” rally that follows the same PA path.

The trader considers Ethereum’s price might be positively affected by ETH spot ETFs. This performance will be the primary driver for the “huge rally in the coming months.” Additionally, he set a band price target of $10,000 for ETH.

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Other market watchers suggested that investors must remain serene if a price drop occurs. Pseudonym analyst and trader Moustache called for patience as “it’s only a matter of time.” “Ethereum chart looks like it did in the last cycle, just before the Altcoin bull market started,” he added.

As of this writing, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is trading at $3,419, a 1.1% decline in the last 24 hours.

Ethereum’s performance in the three-day chart. Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

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Rubmar Garcia

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July 24, 2024
Billions Worth Of Bitcoin Pulled From Exchanges: Is BTC Preparing For $72,000?

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Bitcoin is steady when writing, floating above immediate support levels and inches away from reclaiming the all-important local liquidation line at around $66,000. Even as the broader crypto community expects buyers to step in and push prices higher, there are exciting developments that buttress this outlook.

Billions Worth Of BTC Pulled From Exchanges

According to exchange data shared by one analyst on X, BTC holders increasingly pull their coins from exchanges.

On July 5, when prices tanked, pushing the world’s most valuable coin close to $50,000, a staggering $3.8 billion BTC was moved from exchanges.

BTC moving from exchanges | Source: @Woo_Minkyu via X

Once this happened, prices rapidly bounced back, rising from as low as $53,500 to $65,000 recorded earlier this week. Though prices have been moving horizontally above $62,500 recently, more BTC is being withdrawn. On July 16, BTC owners pulled another $3.4 billion of the coin.

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Even though there is no clear impact on prices, if past performance guides, it is likely that prices will edge higher like they did after the collapse to $53,500.

Bitcoin price trending higher on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

Usually, analysts interpret exchange outflows as positive for price. Whenever coin holders move assets to non-custodial wallets, they want to take control of their coins. As such, they might be unwilling to sell.

Their decision helps support prices since they won’t sell on demand if they wish to, like if they held them on crypto platforms like Binance or Coinbase. Moreover, with fewer BTC readily available on exchanges, bulls tend to benefit due to increased scarcity.

Is Bitcoin Preparing For Another Leg Up Above $72,000?

Beyond this development, another analyst notes that the Realized Profit and Loss Ratio metric has fallen and stands at multi-month lows. The metric is used to gauge market sentiment, mainly influenced by profit and loss at any point in time.

Realized profit and loss ratio falling | Source: @AxelAdlerJr via X

This decrease suggests that investors who wanted to exit at highs have already taken profit. For now, traders must wait for these metrics to rise, perhaps to multi-month highs, ideally above $72,000 and $74,000, before profit-taking resumes.

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Bitcoin has also reclaimed its average cost basis of short-term holders (STHs) as prices recover above $62,000. Those who bought within the last 155 days are now in the money. They are likely holding and expecting more gains in the coming sessions before realizing profits.

In the past, whenever the average cost basis is surpassed, CryptoQuant analysts say prices tend to rise by over 30%.

Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView

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Dalmas Ngetich

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July 18, 2024
Ark Invest’s Bitcoin Report: Why They Bet Big On BTC’s Recovery

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In their latest analysis, Ark Invest’s crypto specialists Julian Falcioni, David Puell, and Dan White, are presenting a review of the Bitcoin market behavior and prospects, delineating the interplay of various economic, technical, and policy-driven factors that could shape the future of this pioneering digital currency.

Bitcoin Validates The Bullish Scenario

Since early June, Bitcoin witnessed a significant decline, dropping more than -25%. More critically, on July 7, BTC fell beneath its 200-day moving average—a key technical threshold. According to Ark, the dip below the 200-day moving average was “a crucial bearish signal that often precedes further declines unless a strong recovery ensues.” Ultimately, Bitcoin displayed significant strength in the last few days and Ark was right in that BTC staged a quick recovery above the 200-day EMA, invalidating the bearish prospects.

Source: X @dpuellARK

A surprising element in June’s Bitcoin volatility was the aggressive sale of approximately 50,000 Bitcoins by the German government. These assets were seized from the illegal streaming site Movie2K and gradually transferred to various exchanges for sale, starting June 19. “The influx of a large volume of bitcoins during a traditionally low liquidity period, around the July 4th holiday, significantly pressured the price downward,” the report notes. Notably, this selling pressure is now gone.

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Despite these challenges, Bitcoin managed an impressive rally of more than 17% in the last few days. Several indicators supported this reversal, according to Ark. The discrepancy between the decline in Bitcoin’s price and the lesser drop in US ETF balances—17.3 %—suggested that Bitcoin was oversold. “This overselling is likely driven by external shocks rather than intrinsic market movements, pointing towards a mispricing that could correct in the medium term,” the experts explain.

Delta between 30d percent change in price vs US ETF flows | Source: X @dpuellARK

Short-term holders, typically a more speculative segment, have been realizing losses as indicated by the sell-side risk ratio. This ratio, calculated by dividing the sum of short-term holder profits and losses realized on-chain by their cost bases, showed more losses than profits, which typically precedes a short-term market correction.

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June also saw significant activity from Bitcoin miners. “Miner outflows, which often prelude market adjustments, mirrored patterns observed around previous Bitcoin halving events, when the reward for mining a block is halved,” says Ark. Such events historically lead to a decreased supply and potential price increases as market dynamics adjust to the new supply level.

On the macroeconomic front, the report notes that the US economic data have been consistently underperforming against expectations, with the Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index registering the most significant negative deviations in a decade. Yet, the Federal Reserve has maintained a surprisingly hawkish tone, which could influence investor sentiment and financial market stability.

Corporate America is not insulated from these challenges. Profit margins, which peaked in 2021, are on a downward trajectory as companies lose pricing power as Ark notes. This squeeze on profits is prompting price cuts across various sectors, further dampening economic outlooks.

Regarding equity markets, there has been a notable increase in market capitalization concentration, reaching levels unseen since the Great Depression. “This concentration in larger entities with significant cash reserves could be an early indicator of a shifting economic landscape, which historically sees a breakout in favor of smaller cap stocks,” the report says.

At press time, BTC traded at $63,131.

BTC rejected at key resistance (red zone), 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

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Jake Simmons

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July 16, 2024
Is Ethereum About To Retest $4,000? Analyst Foresees 3x Rally

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Rubmar is a writer and translator who has been a crypto enthusiast for the past four years. Her goal as a writer is to create informative, complete, and easily understandable pieces accessible to those entering the crypto space. After learning about cryptocurrencies in 2019, Rubmar became curious about the world of possibilities the industry offered, quickly learning that financial freedom was at the palm of her hand with the developing technology.

From a young age, Rubmar was curious about how languages work, finding special interest in wordplay and the peculiarities of dialects. Her curiosity grew as she became an avid reader in her teenage years. She explored freedom and new words through her favorite books, which shaped her view of the world. Rubmar acquired the necessary skills for in-depth research and analytical thinking at university, where she studied Literature and Linguistics. Her studies have given her a sharp perspective on several topics and allowed her to turn every stone in her investigations.

In 2019, she first dipped her toes in the crypto industry when a friend introduced her to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, but it wasn’t until 2020 that she started to dive into the depth of the industry. As Rubmar began to understand the mechanics of the crypto sphere, she saw a new world yet to be explored.

At the beginning of her crypto voyage, she discovered a new system that allowed her to have control over her finances. As a young adult of the 21st century, Rubmar has faced the challenges of the traditional banking system and the restrictions of fiat money.

After the failure of her home country’s economy, the limitations of traditional finances became clear. The bureaucratic, outdated structure made her feel hopeless and powerless amid an aggressive and distorted system created by hyperinflation. However, learning about decentralization and self-custody opened a realm of opportunities. Cryptocurrencies allowed her to experience financial control for the first time and expand her financial education.

Moreover, the peculiar nature of the crypto community sparked Rubmar’s curiosity about the other layers of the industry. As a result, she found a particular interest in discovering the diverse perspectives of investors, market watchers, experts, and developers. Her attempts to better understand the crypto space made her realize the strong links of the community with other industries, enriching her perspective of the sector. As someone who spends most of her day online, Rubmar enjoys finding the points where the crypto world meets with her other passions and hobbies –or her favorite memes.

In her free time, she usually finds joy in different art forms. As a child, she enlisted in every extra-curricular activity in her hometown, including music classes, dancing, jewelry making, and the local chorus. Despite her many attempts to learn different instruments, Rubmar only knows how to play the xylophone, which she played for 7 years in her school’s marching band.

She also has a passion for learning new languages and cultures, having set the goal to learn another six languages – currently attempting to learn Italian and Korean. Scrapbooking, paper crafting, and bookbinding are her biggest interests outside of work, constantly taking classes and attending workshops to learn new techniques. The rest of her free time is spent stressing over football matches and transfer market news or feeding cats –hers or stray.

In summary, Rubmar seeks to present entertaining and educational pieces to be enjoyed by everybody, aiming to report on the latest news and offer a unique perspective while adding a meme or a pun whenever possible.

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Rubmar Garcia

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July 12, 2024
Crypto Analyst Says Bitcoin Could Reach $100,000, But What About Altcoins?

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A crypto analyst has predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) will surge to $100,000 in a few years. At the same time, he has expressed skepticism about the potential for altcoins to embark on a similar bullish trajectory to new highs.

Bitcoin Anticipated To Hit $100,000

In an X (formerly Twitter) post on June 8, a crypto analyst identified as ‘DonAlt,’ disclosed that he was more pessimistic on altcoins than Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency. DonAlt believes that Bitcoin could witness a mega rally, pushing its price to trade at $100,000 in the coming years.

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Considering the inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs and numerous forecasts of an upcoming bull run, a $100,000 price target for Bitcoin seems increasingly plausible. Moreover, numerous market experts, including DonAlt, have maintained an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, predicting major bull rallies for the cryptocurrency. Specifically, Standard Chartered has projected a price increase to $250,000 and Bernstein analysts anticipate a surge to $200,000 for Bitcoin.

In contrast, altcoins have been underperforming significantly, influenced by broader market trends and bearish sentiment. Due to the declining price of these cryptocurrencies, DonAlt has highlighted a possible future where Bitcoin dominates the crypto market while many altcoins trade 90% lower than their current valuations.

Sharing a similar sentiment, a crypto community member disclosed that other than meme coins and a few random altcoins, many cryptocurrencies have failed to outperform Bitcoin in this current market cycle. He revealed that all the altcoins which previously witnessed gains on par with Bitcoin have declined significantly, while BTC has remained slightly below its previous all-time high.

Furthermore, a few community members have questioned whether Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) were among the altcoins predicted to decline as Bitcoin price increases. This concern arises because, despite slight declines and market volatility, Ethereum and Solana have witnessed massive gains since the beginning of the year.

Solana, in particular, surged significantly following the launch of a Spot Solana ETF filing, whereas Ethereum has been subtly following Bitcoin’s price movements, surging upwards during favorable market conditions and declining severely amidst volatility.

Will Altcoins Follow Bitcoin’s Rise To New Highs?

A crypto analyst identified as ‘Doctor Profit’ on X released a detailed report on altcoins for the third quarter (Q3) of 2024. According to the analyst, altcoins are poised to witness a massive pump following the release of the official launch date for Ethereum Spot ETFs. This implies that altcoins could potentially exit bearish trends and align with Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory if it witnesses a price reversal.

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Source: X

The crypto analyst believes that the recent decline in altcoins presents a great buying opportunity for investors. He asserts that the altcoin market’s recent 35% downturn is a healthy correction that potentially signals a surge to new highs as market conditions stabilize.

Furthermore, the crypto expert has predicted a new valuation target for the altcoin market, anticipating its market capitalization to exceed $1 trillion by the end of the year.

BTC price falls to $57,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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Scott Matherson

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July 10, 2024
Bitcoin Crash: Here’s What The Data Says About Buying The Dip

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The on-chain analytics platform Santiment has provided useful insights for investors considering buying the Bitcoin dip. The platform suggested that the worst might not be over as the flagship crypto could still experience further dips from its current price range.

To Buy Or Not To Buy The Bitcoin Dip?

In an X (formerly Twitter) post, Santiment mentioned to those considering buying the dip that market participants also anticipate a rebound. They added that these dramatic dips, like the one Bitcoin recently experienced, are usually met with FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt).

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Source: Santiment

This suggests that those looking to buy the Bitcoin dip may have to be careful as Bitcoin could dip further due to those waiting to offload their holdings out of panic once the flagship crypto recovers. Regarding FUD, there have also been calls that Bitcoin could still drop to the $40,000 range. As such, such statements could prove bearish for Bitcoin’s price, causing it to further decline.

Meanwhile, Santiment noted that Bitcoin usually recovers from such dramatic dips after the average trader has given up hope on crypto. Crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto also had some words for those looking to buy the dip at Bitcoin’s current price range. He mentioned in an X post that anyone looking to buy at these current price levels must be okay with being “underwater” for a while.

He added that anyone uncomfortable with being underwater for a while should wait until some positive price action develops. He noted that this positive price action could ideally come in the “form of a major liquidation flush (open interest reset) or some LTF impulsive price action.”

The crypto analyst also addressed spot Bitcoin buyers. He assured them that they need not worry about this current price range, claiming that Bitcoin could drop lower on the higher time frame (HTF) without invalidating the HTF bullish structure. Based on Bitcoin’s bullish structure, he mentioned that the price correction following this downtrend will send the flagship crypto to $100,000.

Institutional Investors Are Buying The Dip

Recent data from Farside investors shows that institutional investors are buying the Bitcoin dip. On July 8, the Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $294.8 million. BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Grayscale’s GBTC all recorded impressive net inflows of $187.2 million, $61.5 million, and $25.1 million, respectively.

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These Spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded net inflows of $143 million on July 5, which marked a turnaround considering that they had experienced two consecutive days of outflows before then. These inflows into Bitcoin have contributed to the recent price rebound that the flagship crypto has witnessed.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $57,100, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

BTC price drops toward $57,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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Scott Matherson

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July 9, 2024
Bitcoin Analyst Thinks Prices Must First Breach $50,000 Before Rallying

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Bitcoin flash crashed on July 4 and 5, extending losses from all-time highs to about 30%. Though there was a relief bounce over the weekend, forcing the world’s most valuable coin up by nearly 11%, BTC remains within a bearish formation.

Bitcoin Correction Not Over: Will Bears Break $50,000?

One analyst who took to X confirmed this assessment, adding that the optimism over the last 48 hours could be quashed in the coming sessions. With BTC not out of the woods, at least from technical formation, the analyst predicted not only will the coin sink below last week’s lows, but it will likely break the psychological $50,000 mark.

BTC retracing | Source: @bitcoinmunger via X

Pointing to historical price action, the coin said Bitcoin could drop to as low as $48,000 in the coming days, roughly 40% from its all-time high.

When this happens, and following the price action seen in 2017, when the coin also crashed by 40% after local peaks, the coin will resume the uptrend.

Even so, looking at the analyst’s assessment, the swing high and low anchoring of the Fibonacci retracement tool is subjective. For now, if September 2023 to March 2024 range acts as swing and lows, a 40% drop from local highs places Bitcoin $10,000 lower at around $37,000.

Bitcoin price trending downward on the weekly chart | Source: BTCUSDT via Binance, TradingView

Cracks are beginning to form on the weekly chart. After last week’s losses, the coin firmly closed below the 20-period moving average, placing sellers in control. Confirmation of last week’s losses could set the ball rolling, sparking more losses in the short term, pushing the world’s most valuable coin to $50,000 or even $40,000.

How High Will BTC Jump After The Correction?

However, after the cool-off and the depth doesn’t matter, another analyst predicts the coin will bounce off strongly. If BTC finds support at around the $47,000 to $50,000 level, the probability of it floating to at least $102,000 is high.

This is the first level of the Fibonacci extension. At its high, the coin could soar to as high as $242,000 in the sessions to come.

The confidence that BTC will bounce back after the current sell-off, sparked most by Mt. Gox liquidation fears and the constant dump by the German government, is based on history. After the Halving, Bitcoin prices tend to recover steadily.

BTC rally post Halving | Source: @QuintenFrancois via X

If anything, one analyst said holders shouldn’t panic sell within the first 79 days after the Halving event. Marking the beginning of the fifth epoch, the network reduced its miner rewards on April 20, roughly three months ago.

Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView

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Dalmas Ngetich

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July 8, 2024
Bitcoin Strikes A Chord At The Bottom

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The price of Bitcoin has increased by 6% since it crossed into the $53,000 price territory on July 5. However, while the cryptocurrency is now exhibiting short-term bullishness, it is important to note that it is not out of the woods yet.

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There are still some serious resistance levels that could keep BTC trapped in a range below $60,000 for the rest of the month. According to a recent analysis by Captain Faibik, the leading digital asset needs to close above the $61,000 mark before everybody can be convinced of bullish momentum.

Bitcoin Needs To Clear Major Resistance

The $61,000 price level isn’t just an arbitrary price point. According to a recent analysis shared by crypto analyst Captain Faibik, the $61,000 price is more of a resistance level that resonates with Bitcoin’s price action over the past two months.

In a 4-hour Bitcoin/TetherUS timeframe chart shared on social media platform X, the analyst drew two diverging trendlines from Bitcoin’s brief break above $70,000 on June 6. Since then, Bitcoin’s price decline has led to the creation of lower highs and lower lows.

In order for Bitcoin to cross into total bullish momentum, it would need to cross over the upper trendline, which has been tracking the lower highs since June 6. Notably, this price level is around $61,000.

$BTC seems to have bottomed out, but it’s not out of the woods yet..!!

Bitcoin bulls need to clear the $61k Resistance area to regain Bullish momentum.#Crypto #Bitcoin #BTC pic.twitter.com/rzROKaA0Xo

— Captain Faibik (@CryptoFaibik) July 6, 2024

Captain Faibik isn’t the only analyst eyeing this crucial level either. Many agree that a daily or weekly close above $61,000 would cement the end of Bitcoin’s price correction. This crucial price level was echoed in an analysis by Ali Martinez, another popular crypto analyst.

Bitcoin is now trading at $57,569. Chart: TradingView

Martinez’s analysis is based on IntoTheBlock’s In/Out Of The Money metric, which tracks the number of addresses that are profitable and those that are in losses. As per Martinez’s take on this metric, Bitcoin doesn’t have enough demand levels to prop it up in case of a fall up to $47,000.

Conversely, Bitcoin must close above $61,000 for the bullish momentum to return. The $61,000 level is a heavily contested zone with tons of trading activity. There are approximately 1.7 million BTC addresses collectively holding over 600,000 BTC waiting to turn a profit at this price point.

#Bitcoin currently lacks significant support. The main key demand wall is around $47,000, and for the bull run to resume, $BTC must close and hold above $61,000. pic.twitter.com/9cD2otd4ZK

— Ali (@ali_charts) July 5, 2024

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What’s At Stake For Bitcoin?

Breaking past $61,000 is crucial for Bitcoin to prove its resilience and re-establish an uptrend. Failing to do so could reinforce the bearish narrative and trigger another sell-off. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also noted that Bitcoin needs a daily close above $58,450 in order to fuel an upside to $60,600.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

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Scott Matherson

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July 7, 2024
Analyst Hints Bitcoin Price Recovery Might Be Underway — Here’s Why

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Opeyemi is a proficient writer and enthusiast in the exciting and unique cryptocurrency realm. While the digital asset industry was not his first choice, he has remained absolutely drawn since making a foray into the space over two years. Now, Opeyemi takes pride in creating unique pieces unraveling the complexities of blockchain technology and sharing insights on the latest trends in the world of cryptocurrencies.

Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.

Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.

When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.

Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K.
Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.

Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.

Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.

Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.

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Opeyemi Sule

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July 7, 2024
Colossal Buying Pressure For Bitcoin And Solana As FTX Plans $16B Distribution, Expert

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In a significant development for the cryptocurrency industry, FTX, the exchange that collapsed in November 2022 under the leadership of convicted Sam Bankman-Fried, is preparing to distribute a staggering $16 billion in cash to its customers, which could lead to significant gains for Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) prices.

Crypto researcher Xremlin has predicted that a considerable portion of this cash will flow back into the crypto market, serving as a catalyst for growth towards the end of the year.

FTX $16 Billion Cash Injection

In a recent social media post, Xremlin highlighted the significance of the distribution, emphasizing that it involves returning $16 billion in cash to individuals already involved in the crypto space.

Xremlin believes that a significant portion of this money will be reinvested in the market, specifically in purchasing various tokens, including Bitcoin and Solana, creating significant buying pressure and price growth for both cryptocurrencies.

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The source of this massive cash injection can be traced back to FTX’s agreement with US government agencies, where assets acquired with misappropriated customer funds were sold. These assets encompassed investments in cryptocurrencies, tech companies, venture funds, and real estate.

Following the sale of shares in AI startup Anthropic, where FTX had previously invested $500 million, the distressed exchange found $6.4 billion in cash. It is important to note that the amount also includes assets controlled by debtors and liquidators.

However, the distribution has faced dissatisfaction among some clients due to settling customer claims based on lower cryptocurrency prices from November 2022, when FTX filed for bankruptcy.

For instance, clients holding 10 Ethereum’s native token ETH in their accounts will receive approximately $12,000 in cash, significantly lower than the asset’s current worth of around $29,000 as ETH trades at $2,900.

Despite objections, the court has approved creditor voting on the liquidation plan, and if passed by the necessary number of votes, the plan will be implemented after final court approval.

Buying Frenzy For Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Solana?

Key dates to watch for further developments include August 16, 2024, which marks the deadline for FTX customers to vote on the bankruptcy wind-down payments, and October 7, 2024, when Judge John Dorsey will consider approving the FTX bankruptcy plan.

If the current plan is approved, clients can expect payouts to begin by the end of Q3, potentially providing much-needed liquidity for token purchases. This timing coincides with the US elections, which could contribute to increased market volatility.

Consequently, FTX payouts could serve as an additional factor fueling a bullish trend in the crypto market as it finds itself in significant price declines.

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Bitcoin has fallen over 21% in the past month at one end of the market, from a high of $71,000 to a current trading price of $56,400. Meanwhile, Solana surpasses BTC’s losses with a 22% drop in the same time frame, currently trading at $134.

The 1-D chart shows that BTC’s price is trending downward. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Furthermore, it is expected that the ongoing selling pressure from the US and German governments witnessed over the past month could continue for the rest of the year, and the cash injection from FTX to crypto investors could help mitigate the expected selling pressure.

The researcher points out that since most affected FTX customers are retail crypto investors, a significant portion of the money is expected to flow back into cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are likely to receive the most liquidity.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

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Ronaldo Marquez

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July 5, 2024
Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $54,000: Top-5 Reasons

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In the last four days, the Bitcoin price has plummeted over 15%, with a significant 7.8% drop occurring in just the past 24 hours. From a high of nearly $72,000 in early June, the price of BTC has now declined by almost 25%. Here are the key factors behind yesterday’s dramatic fall in price.

#1 Mt. Gox’s Bitcoin Repayments

The impending distribution of 142,000 BTC by the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox has significantly stirred market anxiety. This amount, representing 0.68% of the total Bitcoin supply, is slated for distribution among the creditors of the exchange, which ceased operations in 2014 due to a major hacking event.

The distribution process has already seen large transfers, with 52,633 BTC moved in recent hours, suggesting that preparations are underway for a large-scale disbursement. Market observers and analysts are closely monitoring these movements, as the potential for massive selling by these creditors could inject considerable volatility into the market.

The psychological impact of this distribution has presumably led to preemptive selling among Bitcoin holders, further amplifying market jitters.

Mt. Gox moves its Bitcoin | Source: Arkham

#2 German Government

The German government’s decision to begin liquidating its Bitcoin holdings has sent ripples through the market as well, with transactions recorded on major exchanges such as Bitstamp, Coinbase, and Kraken.

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Over a fortnight, the government reduced its holdings from 50,000 BTC to 42,274 BTC. Market participants are understandably nervous that a continuous sell-off by a major holder like a government could lead to downward price pressure.

#3 Massive Long Liquidations

The Bitcoin market has experienced a sharp increase in the liquidation of long positions, with a record $212 million worth of BTC liquidated just in the past 48 hours. This liquidation is the most significant since April 13, when $261 million worth of BTC longs were liquidated, leading to a steep decline in Bitcoin’s price from $68,500 to $61,600.

BTC total liquidations | Source: Coinglass

Such liquidations often trigger a chain reaction, leading to forced sell-offs and further price declines. These liquidations are indicative of a highly leveraged market where investors might be overextended, contributing to heightened market volatility.

#4 BTC Miner Capitulation

Post the Bitcoin halving event on April 20, 2024, the mining reward was halved from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, escalating economic pressures on miners. This reward reduction was anticipated to increase Bitcoin’s price, but the increase did not materialize, leaving miners with diminishing returns.

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The current capitulation among miners is akin to previous market bottoms, such as the one seen following the FTX collapse, researchers from CryptoQuant recently revealed. Indicators of miner distress, including a significant 7.7% drop in hashrate and a plummet in mining revenue per hash to near all-time lows, means that many miners were forced to turn off their equipment and sell the BTC stash.

Bitcoin network hashrate drawdown | Source: X @jjcmoreno

#5 Slowdown In US Spot Bitcoin ETF Activity

Contrary to expectations of a buoyant market driven by institutional investments through spot Bitcoin ETFs, there has been a noticeable slowdown in this sector. The anticipated “second wave” of institutional money has failed to materialize thus far, leading to subdued activity in the ETF space. Instead, the spot ETFs are currently experiencing a summer lull.

The enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin ETFs has been unable to counteract the overwhelmingly negative market sentiment; however, its direct impact remains relatively minor. Leading on-chain analyst James “Checkmate” Check recently estimated that only 20% of the spot volume is attributable to spot ETFs, with the remainder stemming from traditional spot markets. Over recent weeks, long-term BTC holders have been selling off their holdings in significant numbers, which has been the primary driver of the downward pressure on the market.

At press time, BTC traded at $54,434.

BTC dropped below $54,000, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

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Jake Simmons

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July 5, 2024
Bullish Reversal For Bitcoin? Retail Investors Flood Back As New Addresses Reach 4-Month Peak

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Recently, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a consolidation phase, fluctuating between $61,000 and $62,000 after a brief drop to $58,000 on June 24. While retail investors have shown renewed interest alongside institutional counterparts, the market faces a mix of bullish signs and potential headwinds.

Retail Investors Return To Bitcoin

In a recent social media post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlights the resurgence of retail investors, as evidenced by a four-month high in new BTC addresses reaching 432,026, adding to the sentiment that investors are betting on a significant price increase for BTC in the coming months, despite recent price volatility.

BTC number of new addresses. Source: Ali Martinez on X

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In a separate post analyzing BTC’s recent price action, Martinez also suggested that the largest cryptocurrency on the market is currently confined within a parallel channel, with a potential rebound to $63,200 or $63,800 if the lower bound at $62,500 holds.

In particular, Martinez cites the critical resistance areas of $65,795 and $78,700 as key targets if BTC breaks above them.

However, not all news is positive for the Bitcoin market. In the past 72 hours, BTC miners have sold over 2,300 BTC worth approximately $145 million. This selling pressure adds to the US and German governments’ ongoing sell-off of confiscated BTC.

Mining Industry Under Pressure

The mining industry faces challenges due to lower network fees and reduced block rewards resulting from the Halving event in April.

Kaiko Research notes that average network fees have decreased from $3 to $5, a significant drop from around $45 in January. The halving saw block rewards reduce from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, impacting miner revenue.

This revenue squeeze has put pressure on miners, eroding profitability while fixed expenses such as energy, wages, and rent remain constant. The decline in network fees has further contributed to the reduction in revenue.

Historically, Bitcoin price rallies following Halving events have helped miners compensate for the drop in rewards. However, the price of Bitcoin has remained relatively unchanged since the April 19 software update.

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In April, fees briefly surged to nearly $150 due to the increased minting of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on the BTC blockchain. Although this temporarily relieved miners, fees have since returned to average levels.

According to Bloomberg, Marathon Digital, one of the largest Bitcoin miners, sold 390 BTC in May and plans to sell more tokens to manage its finances.

Kaiko Research warns that the risk of forced selling by miners may persist in the coming months. As a result, the industry is expected to witness consolidation as miners seek to “consolidate assets” and “increase efficiency.”

Notable examples include miner Riot Blockchain’s “hostile takeover attempt” of Bitfarms Ltd. and CleanSpark Inc.’s recent agreement to acquire Griid Infrastructure Inc. for $155 million in an all-stock transaction.

The 1-D chart shows BTC’s price consolidation. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

At the time of writing, BTC is still consolidating within its range at $61,880, down 2% in the 24-hour time frame, wiping out all gains in the past 30 days, as losses in this time frame amount to 9%.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

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Ronaldo Marquez

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July 2, 2024
Bitcoin Remains Bullish As New BTC Addresses Surge To New 2-Month Highs

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June was much rougher for Bitcoin than many expected at the beginning of the month. This is because the price of Bitcoin virtually declined throughout the month, leaving many investors, especially short-term holders, disappointed.

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However, despite the price decline, on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin adoption is growing. New data shows the number of new Bitcoin addresses being created has surged to the highest level in two months. This growth suggests the long-term prospects for Bitcoin remain strong.

New BTC Addresses Surge To 2-Month High

Despite the price slump, the network is exhibiting a promising trend that signals future growth for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. According to Glassnode chart data initially shared on social media platform X by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, new BTC wallet addresses have risen steadily over the past week to reach 352,124, their highest level since April.

Interestingly, the chart shows that the recent uptick in new addresses contrasts with a larger decrease in the creation of new addresses since November 2023. This new increase points to an influx of new users entering the crypto space. As more people adopt Bitcoin, demand will inevitably grow, which is a catalyst for price surges down the line.

Furthermore, Martinez suggested that the uptick in new addresses is from retail investors making a comeback. While institutional investors often drive major market moves, retail interest is crucial for Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption.

Retail #Bitcoin investors are making a comeback! The number of new $BTC addresses on the network surged to 352,124, marking the highest level since April. pic.twitter.com/GFOHnsokz0

— Ali (@ali_charts) June 29, 2024

A major part of the increase in new addresses can be attributed to recent adoption in the Brazilian market. Nubank, Brazil’s biggest neobank, recently announced plans to integrate Bitcoin’s lightning network into its services. As the largest fintech bank in Latin America, this integration could potentially expose a significant portion of its 100 million customers to the digital asset.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $61,446. Chart: TradingView

What’s Next For Bitcoin?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $61,446. The leading digital asset has lost over 10% of its market cap in a 30-day time frame and the bulls are struggling to break above $61,000. This downtrend could be attributed to a selloff by miners and many long-term holders. Specifically, around 40,000 BTC were sold by long-term holders in June.

Bear markets are temporary. Bull runs will return. It’s just a matter of when, not if. With the second half of the year now approaching, time can only tell how the price of Bitcoin unfolds. Of course, new wallet addresses don’t directly impact price, but they are a leading indicator of growing Bitcoin adoption.

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This adoption and demand, coupled with a recent decrease in the number of new Bitcoins entering the market, points to an increase in the price of Bitcoin in July.

Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView

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Scott Matherson

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June 30, 2024
Market Tremors: $10 Billion in Bitcoin Dumped in May Alone, What Does This Signal?

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Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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Samuel Edyme

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June 28, 2024
Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Today?

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The Bitcoin price is in a decline once more, after seeing some recovery on Wednesday due to the turnaround in the Spot Bitcoin ETFs net flows. However, just one day later, it seems the pioneer cryptocurrency has resumed the downtrend and this decline after the recovery has begun a worrying trend. So, what are the factors that are driving this decline?

Bitcoin Price Suffers From Sell-Offs

One of the major factors that have been behind the Bitcoin decline is the major sell-offs that have rocked the digital asset. These sell-offs are not just from any investor, but rather large BTC sells being orchestrated by large governments.

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One of the major news that rocked the space was the fact that the German government had begun selling coins. In total, the German government sold around 2,786 BTC, which was worth around $$140 million at the time of the sale.

However, the German government is not the only one that has been selling. News also broke that the US government had begun moving Bitcoin seized from the Silk Road bust once again. On-chain data aggregator Arkham reported that the US government had moved almost 4,000 BTC from its wallets to the Coinbase exchange.

In total, the US government moved 3,940 BTC to the exchange, which amounted to $241.22 million at the time of the transaction. This transfer is worrying as coins are usually moved to centralized exchanges such as Coinbase for sale as these trading platforms possess deeper liquidity compared to their decentralized counterparts.

Has BTC Reached Its Bottom?

While the downtrend looks to have resumed, there are signs that point to the bottom being closed. One of these signs is the return of demand into the market. For example, the Spot Bitcoin ETFs had seen seven consecutive days of outflows, which eventually turned around on Tuesday. Data from Coinglass shows that between Tuesday and Wednesday, inflows into the Spot Bitcoin ETFs have crossed $50 million, ending the brutal week of outflows.

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Another possible tell is the profit and loss margin for investors. This shows how many Bitcoin investors are currently seeing profit, and the higher the profitability, the higher the likelihood of a sell-off as investors take profit from their positions.

However, the profitability levels have dropped, meaning that investors are less likely to sell their holdings as they wait for better prices. This often gives demand time to build up and create a possible bounce point for a recovery.

For now, the Bitcoin price is holding steady at the $61,000 support at the time of writing. But if sell-offs resume, then the pioneer cryptocurrency could fall to the $60,000 level soon.

Bulls reclaim control of BTC price | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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Scott Matherson

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June 27, 2024
Is Bitcoin Rally Over? New Insights from CryptoQuant Predict a Market Downturn

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According to the latest insight from a CryptoQuant analyst, Bitcoin might be poised for a notable price correction. This possibility of a price correction is based on major Bitcoin metrics such as the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (ASOPR), signaling a notable implication for Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Understanding ASOPR’s Role In Predicting BTC Corrections

The ASOPR, a key indicator in the crypto market, measures the profit ratio of spent outputs by comparing the value at which coins were bought to the value at which they were sold.

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According to the CryptoQuant analyst, when this ratio exceeds 1, it suggests that coins are being sold at a profit, which often correlates with bullish market conditions.

However, a critical threshold observed in historical data is when ASOPR approaches 1.08. At this point, the market tends to shift, signaling a potential onset of a correction phase.

This pattern has been consistent over several market cycles, providing a valuable tool for investors to assess the market’s health. For instance, when ASOPR climbs steadily above 1 but nears the 1.08 mark, investors might consider this an opportune moment to evaluate their positions before potential downturns.

The CryptoQuant analyst particularly noted:

Considering past instances where similar patterns were observed, there is a possibility that the current situation might follow the same (down) trend.

Another critical component the analyst mentioned in his BTC market analysis is the 200-day moving average (MA), widely regarded as a barometer for the long-term market trend.

This indicator helps smooth out price data by creating a constantly updated average price, which can be pivotal in confirming the overall market direction. A rising 200-day MA suggests a long-term uptrend, while a decline might indicate a bearish market.

According to the chart shared by the analyst, Bitcoin’s performance below this key moving average currently confirms the cautious stance suggested by the ASOPR.

Bitcoin chart. | Source: CryptoQuant

With the price hovering around $64,000, a 14% drop from its recent peak, the convergence of these indicators suggests that the market might still be in a phase of reassessment and potential adjustment.

Bitcoin Continued Stagnancy

The prediction from the metric above is quite evident, as Bitcoin’s value continues to fall despite significant positive developments within the industry.

Earlier today, Standard Chartered Plc announced the launch of a new trading desk for Bitcoin and Ethereum, marking a significant move into spot cryptocurrency trading by one of the world’s major banks.

Additionally, the Winklevoss twins, founders of the crypto company Gemini, have publicly supported Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, donating $1 million each BTC for being a “pro-Bitcoin” candidate.

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Nevertheless, these developments have not spurred any significant upward movement in Bitcoin’s price, which has seen a 1.1% decline in the past 24 hours to $63,935.

BTC price is moving downwards on the 1-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Analyst Ansem predicts that Bitcoin may not see a significant price increase until later this year, anticipating it will remain between $58,000 and $60,000 for some time.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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Samuel Edyme

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June 21, 2024
Bitcoin Mining Cost At $86,700: Price To Surpass This Soon?

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Data suggests the average cost of mining Bitcoin is standing around $86,700 right now. Here’s what history suggests could happen next for BTC.

Bitcoin Average Mining Cost Is Currently Notably Higher Than The Price

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about how the average mining cost of BTC is looking like right now. The Bitcoin network runs on a consensus mechanism based on the “proof-of-work” in which validators called the miners compete against each other using computing power to get to hash the next block on the chain.

This computing power naturally has its running cost, with electricity being the most notable expense that the miners have to pay, given that it’s a perpetual cost. The incentive for spending capital on mining operations lies in the block rewards that these validators receive upon successfully adding the next block.

Obviously, mining expenses are different depending on location, as electricity prices aren’t the same everywhere. As such, the chart that Ali has cited from MacroMicro uses data provided by the Cambridge University on BTC electricity consumption to find out an average value.

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Below is the chart in question, which shows how the average mining cost on the Bitcoin network has changed over the past few years.

The value of the metric appears to have gone up in recent months | Source: @ali_charts on X

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin average mining cost (colored in blue) had been below the price of the cryptocurrency earlier in the year, but recently, the former’s value has spiked and has surpassed the latter’s.

The reason behind this sudden increase is that there is another variable at play when calculating the average cost of mining Bitcoin: the Issuance, or the number of tokens that the miners are minting daily.

In general, the block rewards stay fixed both in value and frequency, so the Issuance of the network, which is nothing else than the sum of the block rewards mined in a day, more or less remains fixed as well.

Specific events, however, don’t abide by this. They are the Halvings. These periodic events that take place approximately every four years permanently slash the block rewards in half.

The latest such event, the fourth ever in the cryptocurrency’s history, occurred back in April. Naturally, the Halvings mean that the cost of mining 1 BTC drastically goes up, as miners only get half as many rewards as before after doing the same amount of work.

Thus, it’s not surprising that the cost of production for the coin observed a sharp increase coinciding with the latest Halving. At present, this metric stands at $86,700, meaning that according to MacroMicro’s model, the average miner would be underwater.

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Based on the past trend of the indicator, Ali has identified a pattern that Bitcoin has always followed. “Historically, BTC always surges above its average mining cost!” notes the analyst.

As such, if this pattern continues to hold for the current cycle as well, then it may only be a matter of time before Bitcoin surges past the $86,700 mark.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has gone through a drawdown of more than 5% recently, which has brought its price under the $66,000 level.

Looks like the price of the asset has observed bearish momentum recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, MacroMicro.me, chart from TradingView.com

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Keshav Verma

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June 17, 2024
Bernstein Analysts Revise Bitcoin Target, $200,000 And $1 Million Become Main Focus

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Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra recently revised their price targets for Bitcoin in their latest market report, which also initiated coverage on MicroStrategy. These analysts also outlined factors that they believe could contribute to BTC’s exponential price surge.

Bitcoin To Hit $200,000 And Then $1 Million

Chhugani and Sapra predicted in the report that BTC will rise to a cycle high of $200,000 by 2025 and that the flagship crypto will reach $1 million by 2033. Bernstein had previously predicted that Bitcoin would reach $150,000 by 2025. However, these analysts have now revised their targets and alluded to the institutional demand for BTC as one of the reasons they believe the flagship crypto can reach such heights.

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The research firm predicts that the Spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue to record impressive demand and that the Bitcoin under management could reach $190 billion by 2025, a significant increase from the $60 billion in BTC that funds issuers already have under management.

In other words, these analysts expect BTC’s price to succumb to the supply and demand dynamics, considering that the Bitcoin in circulation is bound to drastically reduce as these Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to accumulate a significant amount of the crypto token for their respective ETFs. Moreover, two Bitcoin halvings are set to occur before 2033, further reducing miners’ supply and thereby supporting their base case of BTC hitting $1 million.

MicroStrategy To Benefit From BTC’s Growth

These Berstein analysts also initiated coverage on MicroStrategy with an outperform rating. They predict that the software company’s stock can rise to $2,890 thanks to its BTC exposure. A rise to $2,890 represents about a 95% increase for MicroStrategy’s stock, which is currently valued at around $1,500.

The research firm noted that MicroStrategy has committed itself to “building the world’s largest Bitcoin company.” This has already paid off so far, with Chhugani and Sapra stating that the software company has transformed from a “small software company to the largest BTC holding company” since August 2020 (when it started accumulating BTC).

MicroStrategy already owns 1.1% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with holdings worth around $14.5 billion. The company’s BTC holdings are expected to increase soon enough, as they recently announced plans to offer $500 million of Convertible Senior Notes. Some of the proceeds from the proposed sale will be used to buy additional BTC.

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Berstein highlighted how the company’s co-founder Michael Saylor has become synonymous with the Bitcoin brand and that the company’s position as the leading Bitcoin company has helped attract “at scale capital (both debt and equity) for an active Bitcoin acquisition strategy.” In dollar terms, Bernstein noted that MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin net asset value (NAV) per share “has grown nearly fourfold, surpassing the 2.4x growth in Bitcoin’s spot price.”

“We believe MSTR’s long term convertible debt strategy allows it enough time to gain from Bitcoin upside, with limited liquidation risk to its Bitcoin on balance sheet.” Chhugani and Sapra added.

BTC price falls to $66,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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Scott Matherson

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June 15, 2024
Bitcoin Turns Weakness Into Strength: Analyst Identifies Major Liquidity Zone At $73,000

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Crypto analyst Dippy has laid a bullish narrative for the Bitcoin future trajectory, suggesting that the flagship crypto could soon hit a new all-time high (ATH). This comes despite Bitcoin’s recent drop below $68,000.

Bitcoin Could Experience A Massive Pump Above $73,000

Dippy suggested in an X (formerly Twitter) post that Bitcoin could enjoy a price pump once it reaches the liquidity zone around $73,000. He noted that many short traders have their stop losses or liquidation levels around that price level, which could be the catalyst for this price pump since liquidations of short positions can easily flush out the bears.

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Source: X

The crypto analyst also outlined another scenario that could play out, which presents a bearish outlook for Bitcoin. He claimed that Bitcoin’s surge to this liquidity zone could be a fakeout to take liquidity and then move down again. However, Bitcoin experiencing that pump once it hits $73,000 looks more likely, considering that crypto analyst James Check labeled the $73,000 price level as where Bitcoin could enter an escape velocity phase.

Crypto analyst Adrian Zduńczyk also suggested that Bitcoin would likely turn that $73,000 zone into support if it climbed to that level. He noted that Bitcoin has continued to consolidate inside its current ATH area for 14 weeks now, which is significant considering that this was an area where it had shown weakness before. Zduńczyk claims this is a “trend-promoting behavior” as resistance becomes the new support, and Bitcoin will continue to go higher.

Source: X

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Mikybull Crypto suggested that Bitcoin’s long-term consolidation in this range might be good, stating that the “longer the consolidation, the higher it moves when it breaks out.” He also remarked that Bitcoin’s bullish divergence also indicates “strong strength” for the flagship crypto. Mikybull Crypto expects Bitcoin to rise to $85,000 and then $110,000 when this long-awaited breakout happens.

Source: X

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also noted that it is only a matter of time before the breakout happens. He had previously stated that a successful breakout for Bitcoin above the $70,000 range would send it into the ‘parabolic uptrend’ phase of this market cycle.

Why BTC Dropped Below $68,000

Bitcoin dropped below $68,000 following the significant outflows the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded on June 10. Data from Farside Investors shows these funds saw a cumulative total of $64.9 million in outflows, the first time these Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded daily outflows since May 23.

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Investors are believed to be waiting on the sidelines ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision on June 12. A lot of volatility is expected in the crypto market ahead of these events, which could determine the future trajectory of crypto assets.

BTC price at $67,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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Scott Matherson

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June 11, 2024