Tag: btc news

Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) told viewers late on September 25 that Bitcoin’s pullback is tracking a familiar seasonal and structural script—and that the market’s next major impulse hinges on a clearly defined support range. “Hold $107k to $98K,” he said, calling the zone the fulcrum for the bull cycle’s next leg. “That’s it. It’s that simple.”

Opening his stream amid a rush of bearish sentiment as BTC price dipped to $108,651, Kevin argued the drawdown should not surprise disciplined traders. He framed the current move in the context of months of caution dating back to early August, when he began highlighting weekly bearish divergences across Bitcoin, Ethereum and the total altcoin market (Total2), into what he described as four-plus-year resistance zones.

“Everyone thinks these symmetrical triangle patterns after a move higher are continuation patterns,” he said, “but in reality, in the crypto market, very, very rarely do these break out to the upside.” He pointed to a progression of smaller impulse highs since late 2023 and reiterated that despite sharp rallies in select altcoins, the majors failed to clear “any major resistance levels.”

Bitcoin Top In Until Proven Otherwise

The anchor of Kevin’s case is confluence on higher time frames. On Bitcoin’s weekly chart, he outlined rising price highs against falling momentum—“simple strength and momentum indicators,” not signals by themselves but context that “has been dwindling for a very long time.”

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Total2, he added, registered “a triple top on the weekly” beneath roughly $1.71–$1.74 trillion—“the all-be-all resistance level”—with weekly RSI and MACD rolling over. Stocks of momentum, in his read, are resetting precisely where they should amid historically thin late-summer liquidity. “Q3 is never a good quarter for crypto,” Kevin said. “August, September are terrible months. They always are.”

Against that backdrop, he argued that USDT dominance remains the most reliable inter-market compass. “USDT dominance is the greatest chart ever. There is no better chart,” he said, walking through a macro descending triangle with a flat-bottom support near 3.9–3.7% and repeated rallies to a falling trendline that have mapped crypto cycle lows and highs for two years.

Each approach to the flat bottom, he noted, has carved a W- or inverse-head-and-shoulders-style base in USDT.D while Bitcoin distributed near local tops; each rejection at the downtrend has coincided with crypto inflections. “You literally don’t need any chart in all of crypto,” he said. “All you need is Bitcoin and USDT dominance and you would have played this cycle absolutely perfectly.”

From a tactical standpoint, Kevin flagged a three-month BTC liquidity “heat map” shelf near $106.8K and the 21-week EMA—the bull-market support band—near $109.2K as natural magnets, with the lower weekly Bollinger Band sitting around $101K.

He stressed he doesn’t want to see “Bitcoin lose 106.8K” if the cycle remains intact, though a wick into that area to “swipe the liquidity” would be consistent with prior resets. He framed $98K as the line that should not break decisively. “There’s a whole lot of support in that range,” he said. “I’d be pretty shocked if Bitcoin wasn’t able to bounce in there somewhere.”

All Eyes On Q4 Seasonality

Kevin tied structural signals to an explicit macro checklist, arguing that lasting cycle tops and bottoms align with fundamental catalysts rather than charts alone. He cited 2021’s inflation spike and the onset of the Fed’s hiking cycle as the driver of that cycle’s 55–60% drawdown, the 2017 CME Bitcoin futures launch as a blow-off top catalyst, and the FTX collapse as the final capitulation in 2022 amid weekly bullish divergence.

“There’s always a macro-related reason that correlates with the charts,” he said. By contrast, he sees no such cycle-ending macro trigger today: inflation gauges have been “very choppy” but contained; the Fed is widely expected to ease into year-end provided labor softens; and seasonality favors Q4.

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He underscored the near-term calendar—core PCE, CPI and labor data in the first half of October—as decisive for risk appetite. “Sometime in mid-October… we’ll start to have an idea of where this market is really going to go,” he said. “If we get to mid-October and Bitcoin’s holding key support… and we get good macroeconomic data, we get another rate cut… the probabilities favor that Bitcoin will [go higher]—and then you’re in Q4.”

Volatility positioning, he added, argues for a sharp directional move once the reset completes. On the weekly Bollinger Band Width, Kevin said BTC has printed record-low readings three times this cycle—each in Q3—and each episode began with a downside break of 18–29% before surging to fresh highs.

“There is a massive move coming for Bitcoin soon. It has not happened yet,” he said, noting spot volumes have declined since November while bands have tightened to historic extremes. A test of the lower weekly band near $101K “is possible,” but not required, in his view; the key is that the broader $107K–$98K corridor functions as a springboard.

Kevin was equally explicit about invalidation and upside triggers. He labeled $125K “a major top for now” and said the market needs weekly and monthly closes above that level to confirm trend continuation.

On dominance, he highlighted 59.0% and 60.28% as near-term resistance that could fuel a BTC-led phase if reclaimed; otherwise, he expects leadership to rotate back to altcoins once Bitcoin bases and USDT dominance prints a lower high. “Stop looking at the altcoins” until those inter-market signals flip, he advised, emphasizing patience, risk management and taking profits into resistance.

His bottom line combines restraint with opportunism. “Hold $107k to 98K,” he repeated. “Go into October. Get through the first couple of weeks of macroeconomic data… Bitcoin will inevitably find a low on the back of that data and then eventually go higher.” But he warned that if macro arrives benign and “Bitcoin is still deteriorating,” traders should be ready to reassess the cycle thesis. Until then, Kevin’s message remains unapologetically unglamorous: respect the seasonal chop, track the inter-market tells, and let the higher-time-frame levels do the talking. “Being right is the best pat on the back you can get,” he said. “Not just saying things that get you a lot of clicks.”

At press time, BTC traded at $109,607.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s listless tape in the face of roaring macro risk is less a contradiction than a timing problem, argues this week’s edition of The Weekly Insight (Week 160, Sept. 20, 2025). Writing under the banner “Why’s BTC Lagging?”, contributor @CryptoinsightUK sets a decisively constructive medium-term tone—“I want to start this week by saying I am bullish, and I will continue to be bullish until I believe we are close to a top”—while acknowledging that the market feels late-cycle and emotionally frayed. “With that said, I do think we are closer to a top than a low here,” he adds, but the author still believes “we are approaching the most euphoric stage of this bull cycle.”

Why Is Bitcoin Lagging?

The piece pins much of today’s malaise on sentiment reflexivity. Crypto-Twitter’s grinding negativity is described as a view-generating feedback loop that makes the market feel heavier than it is. “That lag can feel frustrating,” the author writes, noting that the Fear & Greed Index has not displayed the clustered “extreme greed” readings that characterized the 2021 double-top.

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Aside from a burst of exuberance around late-2024/early-2025—“which coincided with XRP’s rally from around 50 cents to $2.70, eventually topping out at about $3.30 to $3.40”—the index has hovered in the mid-range, far from the blow-off conditions that typically mark cycle peaks. The implication is straightforward: despite the noise, the market has yet to show the classic euphoria clusters that precede tops.

Macro correlations, often invoked to explain Bitcoin’s leadership or underperformance, are used here to argue for lag rather than breakdown. On M2 money supply, the author reiterates a well-tracked three-month linkage: “Bitcoin and the M2 money supply have correlated closely so far, but in the last two to three months M2 has absolutely ripped higher.” From here, readers can “either argue that the correlation has broken down, or that Bitcoin is simply lagging and has yet to catch up.”

A similar read extends to gold. Directional leadership has alternated between the two assets, but with bullion pressing higher, a catch-up in BTC would “imply a move towards at least $135,000, compared to the current level of around $115,000.” Equities tell the same story in another register: the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P, and Russell 2000 are at or near fresh all-time highs while Bitcoin has “mostly chopped sideways,” again “looking as though it may be lagging behind.”

Market microstructure adds a decisive layer. The letter emphasizes the interaction between visible liquidity pockets and consolidation dynamics. “Every single time there has been a significant liquidity build up, Bitcoin has eventually run through it.” As price has stepped higher, resting liquidity has thickened—“red indicates the deepest liquidity, orange the next, and green the lightest”—and breakouts have been most forceful once those deep pockets were taken.

The example given is the “run from $70k to $100k,” where “heavy consolidation was followed by an explosive breakout.” By that logic, the current map “is pointing to a move toward $140k or higher,” which also dovetails with the gold-parity argument. The author’s metaphor is telling: “I often explain price action like stored energy. The longer it consolidates and charges, the bigger the eventual release.”

What Role Do Altcoins Play?

The most forceful claim in the issue is not about Bitcoin at all but about altcoins. Both Total2 (crypto ex-BTC) and Total3 (crypto ex-BTC and ETH) are said to have “closed a daily candle into price discovery.” Total2 “closed a weekly all time high and is now extremely close to closing a second consecutive weekly high,” while Total3 sits “right on the edge of breaking into new all-time highs.”

Structurally, the report frames Total2 as completing a Wyckoff accumulation and cup-and-handle, and Total3 as carving an ascending triangle poised for continuation. The combination—alts pressing price discovery while Bitcoin “is preparing to push to new highs”—is the setup the author associates with “mania or euphoria.” It is also the basis for a clear positioning disclosure: “it is exactly why I am fully positioned in altcoins here.”

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That rotation view is bolstered by a call on Bitcoin dominance. The author reiterates a long-held target: “I think we are heading down to at least the 35.5 percent level, and potentially even into the low 20s.” The historical analogs are unambiguous: from the 2017 highs, dominance “dropped by 62 percent,” and from the 2021 highs it “dropped by 46 percent,” each time accompanied by an acceleration in the monthly decline.

If a similar acceleration coincides with BTC “ripping to new all time highs,” the result would be “a face melting altcoin rally that most people cannot even imagine right now.” The letter links this purely market-internal setup with external catalysts, citing “major legislative shifts in the largest financial economy in the world” and “the potential influx of trillions of dollars through stablecoins and the Clarity Act, which could be passed as soon as November.”

Where Is Bitcoin Price Heading Next?

The issue closes with a complementary technical brief by @thecryptomann1 that brings the near-term risk map into focus. For BTC spot, “decision time… is fast approaching,” with the zone between $111,000 and $115,000 flagged as “huge.” Lose it, and “the liquidity around the $105K range feels inevitable.” Exchange-side order-book heatmaps show “a chunk of liquidity sitting here across all exchanges,” suggesting elevated volatility if tested. The analyst doesn’t force a directional call—“I’m unsure which way the market swings”—and labels aggressive speculation “dangerous” in the current chop.

A second lens comes via USDT dominance (USDT.D), which the analyst inverts to track risk appetite. The metric has been “stuck in [a] range for the past 15 months or so,” but structurally “looks like a chart that’s on its way to revisit its highs (which, in reality, are the lows).” The stated target remains 3.76%. The logic is deliberately simple—range structure, a hold of the 0.5 retracement, persistence in trend, and defense of a key “blue box” support—each pointing “to strength,” i.e., room for risk to keep advancing before stablecoin dominance rises again. That underpins a tactical approach: “The way I’m playing it is swinging long until USDT.D hits 3.76%, then de-risking. That’s not financial advice, just the way I’m approaching it.”

The short-term “max pain” path is sketched with characteristic market irony. One plausible sequence is “$BTC pushing up to $120,000, everyone panicking and going long, fueling the liquidity below us, and then sweeping the lows.” The analyst cautions that a straight drop to the “low $100,000 range” feels “too obvious,” but concedes that both upside and downside liquidity are attractors in a compressed-volatility environment. The mood music for traders is summed, wryly, in a single line: “it’s getting squeaky bum time.”

At press time, BTC traded at $112,712.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s current rebound off the $107,200 low has sparked renewed debate over whether the market has already set its local bottom and is positioned to rally higher.. Independent analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) argues that the probability is “90%+” that the low has been planted, citing both price structure and his recurring “FOMC reversal confluence” framework as confirmation.

Analyst Claims 90% Chance The Bitcoin Bottom Is In

Astronomer, who publicly documented his short-term bearish call from $123,000 down to the $110,000–$111,000 zone, revealed that he flipped long as the target was reached in late August. “Alright, as if the confluences of my confidence in the bottom being in the $110k area at the end of August weren’t strong enough … there now is another confluence lining up,” he wrote. According to him, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting cycle has historically functioned as a turning point for Bitcoin trends.

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He explained: “The FOMC meeting data reverses the ongoing trend at minimum 0 bars (on the date), or 6 bars at most before the date, and it has done that correctly 90%+ of the times. The few times it hasn’t, was because our quarterly long took over (which has more power).” In practice, Astronomer argues, markets front-run the event, as insiders and well-capitalized players set the post-FOMC direction before retail sentiment digests the outcome.

With the next FOMC scheduled for September 18, he contends the downtrend from $123,000 to $110,000 already exhausted itself ahead of schedule. “Now with FOMC coming up … the low is likely already planted, and the trend reversed to up again,” he said.

The analyst contrasted his methodology with the broader crypto commentary ecosystem, where many influencers continue to forecast further downside and a “red September.” He called such views “utter nonsense” rooted in surface-level seasonality. “Every time it does work, it plants its bottom before the actual meeting to front run the anticipation … insiders already have set the post FOMC price direction, regardless of the outcome,” he wrote, stressing that relying on generic “be careful” warnings ahead of central bank events misses the structural shift.

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After his long entry at $110,000, Bitcoin has since climbed above $115,000, prompting Astronomer to declare September’s bearish thesis already invalid. “ September will close green. Yup, Septembears officially 6% in the wrong now. As September opened at 108,299, and price is now at 115,000. That puts September in the upper historical quartile of how green it is at the moment,” he noted.

He further pointed to the last two years as evidence that September’s reputation as a seasonally weak month for Bitcoin has lost statistical edge. “A certain month indeed doesn’t have to be green. ‘Seasonality’ is just a cookie cutter version of properly using cycles. Look at last two years, September has also been green and mean to the bears,” he wrote.

For Astronomer, the conclusion is clear: “When many confluences point in the same direction, it usually means you have solved the rubik’s cube correctly and so can confidently believe.” Still, he tempered the conviction with risk management discipline, stating: “Of course, I could always be wrong, although it has been a long time we lost a trade, never go all in. Take a decent size risk and sleep sound.”

With Bitcoin holding above $115,000 and the FOMC meeting days away, the market’s near-term verdict on whether a sustainable bottom has formed may arrive sooner rather than later.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Ostium Labs argues that Bitcoin’s uptrend remains intact after August’s reversal, but it draws a bright red line at $98,000. In its September 1 Market Outlook, the firm writes: “Closing below $98k on this timeframe would turn weekly structure bearish,” adding that “above $98k weekly structure is still bullish and therefore we should anticipate the formation of a higher-low.”

At publication time, Ostium referenced BTC around $108,017, with the August monthly candle settling “firmly red” after wicking through the record to roughly $124.5k and closing near prior resistance-turned-support around $108.2k.

Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch Now

On the monthly chart, Ostium sees no evidence of a 2021-style cyclical top. The note acknowledges some momentum divergence on RSI but stresses the absence of confirmation from the Awesome Oscillator: “AO has continued to point towards building momentum throughout the uptrend… I do not think this is even remotely similar to the 2021 top formation.”

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The bear case strengthens only if September “closes below the 2025 open at $93.3k and therefore below local trendline support.” For the bullish path, the team wants September to find support “above the yearly open, but likely much higher around the July lows at $105k,” and “ideally” finish the month green “above the August open at $115k,” a configuration they say would “set us up for expansion beyond the highs in October.”

Weekly structure, by Ostium’s read, “showed no exhaustion on the move higher” and has now reset toward 50 on RSI, a profile the firm says supports trend continuation. Should the market carve a higher low early in September and reclaim momentum, a weekly close “back above $112k leads to a retest of the August open and potentially $117.5k into FOMC with a retest of the highs before month-end.”

The daily timeframe remains the near-term hurdle. Ostium characterizes the pullback as “orderly,” with supports flipped to resistance on the way down and “the key level… obviously the $112k prior all-time high,” which served as support in early August and then “reclaimed resistance” on last week’s leg lower.

“A breakout and close above the trendline and back above $112k would look like the bottom is in,” they write. A failed probe—“wick above the trendline into $112k and reject”—would bias price toward “the June open at $104.5k, with the 200dMA below that at $101.3k being key demand.” In derivatives, CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps for Binance’s BTC/USDT pair over one week and one month show dense liquidation bands layered above the $114k cap and clustered below around the $120k region, while no significant levels are visible to the downside.

With a macro-heavy week ahead— ISM prints, JOLTS, the Fed’s Beige Book, jobless claims, ADP, ISM Services, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls—Ostium lays out conditional tactical setups. For longs, they prefer evidence of exhaustion into support: trendline resistance respected, “today’s low” taken out via a liquidation wick into the June-open/200-day cluster, and bullish divergence forming there before bidding for a move back to the weekly open and the $112k retest. For shorts, they prefer a sharp early-week squeeze into $112k “with trend exhaustion… having not taken out today’s low around $107k,” fading the pop back into weekly lows with risk reduced if it unfolds ahead of NFP.

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Ostium also surveys positioning, pointing to snapshots across Velo and CoinGlass, three-month annualized basis, and the mix between Bitcoin and altcoin open interest, as well as one-week and one-month liquidation maps. While it refrains from headline claims on those dashboards, the note’s technical levels line up with the most concentrated liquidation density visible in the attached heatmaps, where stacked interest remains perched near the $112k pivot overhead and layered through the $105k–$101k demand shelf.

DXY As Tailwind For The BTC Price

The report extends beyond Bitcoin. The dollar backdrop, in Ostium’s framework, remains a tailwind for BTC into year-end. With DXY around 97.2, the firm says the current sequence rhymes with past cyclical drawdowns and expects “DXY to break below 96 and push towards at least 94.6, but more likely 93,” where a bottoming formation could emerge above the 200-month moving average. The secular DXY bull case is not dismissed; rather, Ostium situates the present leg as the final cyclical downswing before a higher-low and multi-year recovery, contingent on policy outcomes. A decisive monthly reclaim of 100 would invalidate the near-term bearish DXY view.

Across assets, the through-line of Ostium’s September map is clarity on thresholds. For Bitcoin, a weekly loss of $98,000 would be the first structural break of the cycle; a daily reclaim of $112,000 would strongly argue the local low is in; and a monthly hold above $105,000 with a close back over $115,000 would tee up fresh highs into October.

At press time, BTC traded at $110,610.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com