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Tag: btc news

  • Bitcoin Shows A Clear Momentum Reset — Is A Trend Reversal Coming?

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    The dynamic landscape of the Bitcoin market is entering a full momentum reset, the kind that typically appears in the cooling phase between major trend cycles. After a period of decisive movements, the market now finds itself in a state where previous directional force has largely dissipated, allowing for a re-evaluation of its path.

    A Necessary Reset Before Bitcoin’s Next Big Push

    In an X post, Swissblock has mentioned that Bitcoin momentum is clearly in a reset phase, and the question now is how long until it flips. Historically, in late February to early April 2025, the bottom required roughly 7 weeks for a full momentum to reset. Moving further back to late June to late September 2024, the correction took close to 14 weeks for a full reset and consolidation before a clear trend emerged.

    Data shows that the current momentum reset has been underway for weeks, placing BTC right inside the window where past cycles have typically reached exhaustion. This zone historically marks the point where downside pressure weakens and the higher probability of a counter-trend move increases sharply.

    The crypto market is collapsing. An industry-leading commentary on the global capital markets, The Kobeissi Letter, revealed that on October 6th, just 45 days ago, Bitcoin touched an all-time high of $126,272, with the total crypto market capitalization reaching $2.5 trillion. However, everything changed on October 10th, when President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on China, shifting the surface of the crypto market.

    This announcement triggered a chain reaction record of $19.2 billion in liquidations, the highest ever recorded in a single event, and BTC never truly recovered from the shock. Even when a trade deal between the US and China was reached on October 30th, the liquidation pressures only worsened. Since November 10th, BTC price action has moved into a literal straight line lower, with average daily liquidations approaching $1 billion. 

    Throughout this entire 45-day bear market, there has been an absence of bearish fundamental developments within the crypto space. Kobeissi concluded that this is a mechanical bear market driven by an excessive level of leverage and sporadic liquidations, claiming the market is efficient, and it will iron itself out.

    Will BTC Emerge Stronger From This Test?

    This current Bitcoin correction has now fallen perfectly in line with the previous major drawdowns of this cycle. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, highlighted that each of these corrections in the ongoing cycle has their own story, but this one is hitting the market the hardest.

    Though the 10/10 liquidation event didn’t just hit BTC, it obliterated altcoins. For most of this brutal BTC correction, equities and metals were making fresh all-time highs, further triggering the bearish condition of the crypto landscape.

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    Godspower Owie

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  • Who’s Selling? Here’s The Demographic Driving The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Price Crash

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    Recent data has revealed the demographics of sellers driving the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin crash. The Coinbase BTC premium index also continues to drop further in the red, which strengthens the case of where exactly the sell pressure is coming from.

    The Demographic Behind The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Price Crash

    In an X post, crypto pundit Crypto Rover noted that the U.S. session has been the weakest trading session so far this month. The pundit further shared an accompanying chart, which showed that BTC has suffered a loss of around 12% in the U.S. session since the start of November, also leading to the Ethereum and Dogecoin crash. 

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    Meanwhile, the EU has had the second-weakest session after the U.S., with Bitcoin dropping around 12% in this session since the start of this month. The Asian session has been the least volatile, with BTC trading sideways, recording a drawdown of only about 2% since the start of November. Ethereum, Dogecoin, and altcoins have also been stable during the Asian trading session. 

    Source: Chart from Crypto Rover on X

    Crypto pundit Bossman also indicated that the U.S. was responsible for most of the sell pressure that is driving the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin crash. In an X post, he noted that every single American session is marked by relentless selling for hours. Meanwhile, the Asians wake up, buy it all back, and then the Americans wake up, and the selling begins again.

    Notably, the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices record increased volatility whenever the U.S. stock market opens, with market commentator Zerohedge attributing it to the ‘10 am slam’ by market algos. This indicates that institutional investors are heavily contributing to the market crash. This is evident in the significant outflows recorded by Bitcoin ETFs in recent times. These funds have recorded five daily net outflows over the last seven days, according to SoSoValue data.

    Coinbase BTC Premium Index In The Red

    CoinGlass data shows that the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is in the red, further confirming that most of the sell pressure driving the BTC, Ethereum, and Dogecoin crash is coming from the U.S. Typically, a negative premium indicates that the BTC price on Coinbase is lower than the average global price, which signals weak demand from U.S. investors. 

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    Crypto researcher Kyle Soska noted that Bitcoin and Ethereum are roughly 10 days into a derisking event by U.S.-based entities, likely a combination of ETF users and large private, ultra-high-net-worth individuals. He further remarked that this places the market near the end of the selling episode based on historical data. 

    Soska opined that the first of a near-term bottom would be a mean reversion of the Coinbase-Binance spot discount from its current level of around -$110 back to a more normal level range of around $40. 

    At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $85,000, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

    Bitcoin
    BTC trading at $83,783 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Scott Matherson

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  • CEO Cuts Cardano Founder’s Bitcoin Price Forecast, Warns Bear Market Just Starting

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    Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson previously projected that the Bitcoin price could reach an impressive price of $250,000 as early as this year. This bold forecast, made in April, came at a time when Bitcoin was trading at $77,000 after achieving a record high of $109,000 in January. 

    Hoskinson’s Optimistic Bitcoin Price Forecast

    Hoskinson’s optimism was based on his belief that international negotiations, particularly between the US and China, would favor Bitcoin’s growth. 

    The Cardano founder suggested that easing tariffs would lead to a positive market reaction and bolster adoption, particularly with the anticipated passage of the GENIUS Act, which was signed into law by President Trump a few months later.

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    However, the current market realities have raised doubts about Hoskinson’s prediction. Since then, Bitcoin has experienced significant fluctuations, briefly regaining momentum to reach $126,000 mid-October, only to see the broader crypto market subsequently shed over $1 trillion in total market cap. 

    This downturn has largely been attributed to persistent selling pressure by concerned investors, and substantial outflows from the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector, with nearly $2 billion sold over since October.

    As it stands, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $89,300, marking a nearly 30% decline from its recently achieved all-time highs. In light of this, Jacob King, CEO of Swandesk, publicly dismissed Hoskinson’s $250,000 price target, characterizing it as unrealistic. 

    The daily chart shows BTC’s retrace below the key $90,000 mark. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Is Bitcoin In A New Bear Market Cycle?

    In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), King stated that such lofty price predictions are “pulled out of thin air” and reflect a market still grappling with “delusions.” King elaborated on his viewpoint, suggesting that the industry is in the early stages of a new bear market cycle. 

    He is not alone in this assessment. Market expert Lark Davis recently noted that, based on the classic four-year Bitcoin price cycle, the cryptocurrency has officially entered bear market territory. 

    Bitcoin price
    BTC entering bear territory based on past cycle performances. Source: Lark Davis on X

    Davis commented that this scenario leaves two possibilities: either the established four-year cycle is no longer relevant, or the market has indeed shifted into a bearish phase. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop, he leans toward the latter interpretation.

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    Additionally, others in the market have echoed these bearish sentiments. An analyst known as Mr. Wall Street has recently speculated that the Bitcoin price peaked at $126,000. 

    The analyst believes that this may mark the zenith for this cycle, predicting that the Bitcoin price could next face significant downward pressure, potentially slipping to a range between $74,000 and $82,000. He further forecasts a possible decline to levels between $54,000 and $60,000 by the fourth quarter of 2026.

    Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Ronaldo Marquez

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  • Bitcoin Price In Trouble As Sell-Side Momentum Spikes — $92,000 Next?

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    The Bitcoin price has ostensibly continued down in its bearish direction, which started in the second week of October. After slipping beneath the psychological $100,000 support, worries have surfaced among Bitcoin market participants regarding the broader market structure. Interestingly, the latest on-chain evaluation justifies this worry, as the downside bias for the Bitcoin price seems to be on the rise.

    Binance Taker Imbalance Falls Into Negative Territory

    In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain research firm Arab Chain revealed an increase in sell-side momentum for Bitcoin on Binance, the world’s largest exchange by trading volume.

    This revelation revolves around the BTC Taker Imbalance % metric, which tracks whether the market is dominated by aggressive buyers or sellers. Narrowing it down, this metric offers insights into taker activity on Binance. 

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    Because the metric works by revealing the percentage difference between taker buy volume and taker sell volume, readings with positive values suggest the dominance of buyers in the market. On the contrary, negative readings reveal a seller-dominated market. 

    As Arab Chain reported, there has been an evident spike in the amount of selling pressure in recent hours. A Taker Imbalance % reading of -0.17%, which typically reflects continued bearish action, supports this observation.

    Moreover, the research firm pointed out that there has been an evident difference between the selling and buying volumes recently. The Quicktake post revealed a record of $1.517 billion in selling volume against $1.058 billion dedicated to buying power, making it clear what party is currently winning this Bitcoin price tussle. 

    Is $92,000 The Next Bitcoin Price Target?

    What’s interesting is, the current seller-dominated market has caused the BTC price to continuously hover around the key $94,000 level. Arab Chain noted that each attempt by the Bitcoin price to rise has faced an even greater amount of sell resistance, dousing any serious bullish momentum. 

    Source: CryptoQuant

    The grey bars in the above chart suggest that this increasing bearish pressure might not just be a market correction; instead, it reflects a recurrent injection of sell-pressure, one which Arab Chain implied would eventually defeat the weaker buy-side liquidity at the current support.

    In the likely scenario where more bearish momentum is injected to push the market to the downside, the next level, which could act as a cushion for price, lies around $92,000. 

    If a significant amount of liquidity is not introduced to neutralize the dominance of Bitcoin’s sellers, the Bitcoin price could see an even deeper bearish correction. At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $96,241, reflecting a nearly 2% loss in the past day.

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    Bitcoin price
    The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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    Opeyemi Sule

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  • Ripple Exec Reveals Why The Bitcoin Price Is So High Now

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    Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer (CTO), David Schwartz, has provided a clear explanation for why the Bitcoin price remains so high, currently the most expensive cryptocurrency on the market. Notably, Schwartz’s statement had sparked new discussions across the crypto community. His remarks focused on how people view and use BTC in transactions, revealing a simple economic truth that helps explain the market’s continued confidence in the world’s leading cryptocurrency. 

    Ripple CTO Explains Logic Behind Elevated Bitcoin Price

    On Tuesday, Schwartz shared his thoughts on X, offering a simple but insightful explanation for Bitcoin’s current price strength. Responding to a community member’s question about why anyone would spend BTC given its potential for future appreciation, Schwartz explained that the reason lies in the asset’s perceived value and future expectations. 

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    According to the Ripple CTO, when individuals use Bitcoin to pay for goods or services, they are essentially realizing the full expected value of its future growth today. Rather than holding Bitcoin as a long-term investment and waiting for price gains, these users convert its potential into immediate utility. This behavior, he noted, reflects a broader belief in BTC’s enduring value and is one of the primary reasons why the cryptocurrency’s price remains so high. 

    Notably, Schwartz’s remarks followed a conversation that began when Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Square, a business technology company, announced that Bitcoin payments had gone live across the firm’s platforms. Dorsey revealed that Square customers can now pay for services and products using Bitcoin directly, and sellers can choose between multiple settlement options, including BTC-to-BTC, BTC-to-fiat, and fiat-to-BTC transactions. Funds received through Bitcoin payments will be automatically stored in a user’s Square wallet, with self-custody transfer limits of up to $15,000 per day or $50,000 per week. 

    Interestingly, the timing of Schwartz’s explanation comes a month after BTC reached a new all-time high of over $126,000. Compared to other digital assets, Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency in the six-figure territory, even surpassing traditional investments like gold and major stock indices. While some analysts argue that Bitcoin is overvalued, many investors remain convinced that it could still climb significantly higher in the long term.

    Bitcoin Price Expected To Rise Even Higher 

    The Bitcoin price is currently sitting above the $100,000 level, but analysts believe it could rise even further. The leading cryptocurrency is hovering near $103,300, experiencing some volatility, which has triggered a nearly 2% dip in the past 24 hours amid whale capitulations. Crypto analyst Joe Francesco noted that Bitcoin had initially surged to $107,000 following a wave of optimism sparked by US President Donald Trump’s proposed $2,000 stimulus plan. 

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    Source: X

    However, the rally proved short-lived, as BTC fell a few days later. Despite the pullback, Francesco has described the cryptocurrency’s chart setup as positive, predicting that Bitcoin could soon break through $107,000, with the potential to reach $115,000 and even $120,000 if upward momentum continues. 

    Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Ripple exec)
    BTC price sees sharp recovery | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

    Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Sandra White

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  • Most Reliable Bitcoin Boom Indicator Just Went Off-Script: Expert

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    Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Tony “The Bull” Severino argues that Bitcoin’s most dependable macro tell—the copper-to-gold ratio—has broken character at the very moment the market typically enters a parabolic phase, leaving the post-halving script in disarray and altcoins without their usual rotation.

    Why The Copper/Gold Ratio Is Crucial For Bitcoin

    In a 16-minute video analysis published on November 10, Severino frames the copper/gold ratio as a “growth versus fear index,” where copper strength signals expansion, rising yields and appetite for risk, while gold outperformance maps to recession risk, falling yields and risk-off behavior.

    Copper/gold ratio | Source: X @TonyTheBullCMT

    “When gold is performing better than copper, it typically means economic slowdown [and] general recession fears,” he said, adding that copper’s industrial demand anchors the ratio to the business cycle. The punchline: the ratio’s cyclical turn that historically coincides with Bitcoin’s vertical phase simply never arrived. “They say the most dangerous thing to say in investing is that this time is different. Well, this time is different,” Severino said. “The business cycle based on the copper versus gold ratio did not turn back up.”

    Copper/gold vs bitcoin
    Copper/gold vs bitcoin | Source: X @TonyTheBullCMT

    Severino contends that the four-year halving lore is at best incomplete and at worst misattributed. He overlays prior halving dates with a Fisher Transform signal on the copper/gold ratio and observes that the true inflection has historically been macro, not supply-driven. “I never really thought it was the halving,” he said. “The same halving date started a bull run in the Nasdaq […] the halving in Bitcoin would not really have any effect on tech stocks.” In his construction, the halving has coincided with, rather than caused, the ratio’s upswing and a risk-on impulse that typically propels Bitcoin beyond prior highs into a final, parabolic leg.

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    This cycle diverged. After briefly producing a “higher high” in the ratio—the first since roughly 2010—copper/gold failed to establish a higher low and instead printed “another lower low,” marking, in Severino’s words, the lowest reading in about 15 years on his chart—“since pretty much since the Great Recession.”

    The Fisher Transform that had historically flipped up to confirm the risk-on window never delivered the full follow-through. “It was supposed to send Bitcoin into the final stage of its parabolic rally […] we didn’t go parabolic after going above all-time high. We’re just kind of meandering sideways.”

    Is The Bitcoin Cycle Top In?

    Timing-wise, that failure matters. Severino measures roughly a year between the ratio’s go-signal and Bitcoin’s cycle top in prior episodes. By that yardstick, “we really should have topped” already or, if anchored to the March breakout above the 2021 high, would at least be entering a risk-off window. But without the definitive risk-on impulse, the cycle landmarks blur. “Because we didn’t get the full risk on, I don’t know where the risk off signal is,” he said.

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    The implications extend to altcoins and Bitcoin dominance. Historically, the ratio’s green “risk-on” phase lined up with “alt season,” but this time the setup never materialized. “You normally get your alt season at these green points […] We didn’t get it here,” Severino said, noting Bitcoin dominance is holding key support on higher-timeframe views. He also highlights an “extremely strong negative correlation” between Bitcoin and the copper/gold ratio at present; in past cycles, correlation drifting toward zero tended to coincide with altseason. “None of the conditions for altcoin season seem to be here based on past economic signals,” he added.

    Severino stops short of a deterministic call. The ratio’s trend structure is ambiguous—one failed breakout from a long downtrend does not make an uptrend—and the Fisher signal could still turn. But until it does, he argues, macro says caution.

    “We’re still in the fear sort of side of this ratio. We need to still be defensive and we should be risk off. When this starts to turn back up, we can consider being bullish risk assets again.” That ambiguity, he suggests, is precisely why Bitcoin’s post-ATH drift has defied the well-worn four-year narrative: “It just didn’t do the same thing as it did in the past […] We are different. It is genuinely different this time.”

    At press time, BTC traded at $104,486.

    Bitcoin price
    Bitcoin bulls need to break the 200-day EMA again, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • Bitcoin Supply In Profit Just Crashed To A New 2025 Low – What This Means For Price

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    Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around a precarious stage below the $100,000 psychological level as supply in profit just crashed to a new 2025 low. Amid this decline, Glassnode analysts Chris Beamish, Antoine Colpaert, and CryptoVizArt highlight a complex interplay of structural weakness, cautious investor behavior, and decreased institutional demand. Bitcoin also remains oversold; however, it has yet to enter full capitulation. This suggests that price is fragile but not broken, balancing between recovery and the risk of a deeper decline. 

    Bitcoin Supply In Profit Crash Signals Weak Demand And Price

    Bitcoin’s supply in profit has fallen sharply, hitting its lowest level of 2025 and reflecting the broader slowdown in market momentum. Glassnode analysts note that this decline indicates fading demand and persistent sell pressure as the BTC price consolidates near $100,000, after falling 21% from its all-time high above $126,000. 

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    According to the report, roughly 71% of Bitcoin’s supply remains in profit, near the lower edge of the typical 70% – 90% range seen in mid-cycle slowdowns. This drop marks the lowest probability level of the year, suggesting that BTC’s price stability and recovery may depend on whether fresh demand can return to the market in the coming weeks. 

    Source: Glassnode

    The analysis also disclosed that Bitcoin has broken below the Short-Term Holder’s cost basis of roughly $112,500, and is now struggling to recover, confirming that its earlier bullish phase has ended. They say that the market has been unable to regain a solid footing since the October 10 flash crash and reset, with prices hovering just above the Active Investor’s Realized Price at $88,500. 

    Additionally, on-chain data shows that long-term holders are contributing to the bearish pressure. Since July, Bitcoin’s total supply has decreased from 14.7 million BTC to 14.4 million BTC, representing a net reduction of approximately 300,000 coins. Glassnode analysts estimate that around 2.4 million BTC have been spent during this period, which is roughly 12% of its circulating supply. 

    BTC 2
    Source: Glassnode

    Unlike earlier in the market cycle, these long-term holders are now selling into weakness rather than strength, signaling fatigue and reduced sentiment, likely due to the consistent market declines. While the Relative Unrealized Loss remains moderate at 3.1%, Glassnode analysts highlight that the combination of declining profitability and steady long-term distribution leaves the Bitcoin price in a vulnerable position near $100,000. 

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    ETF Outflows And Unsteady Derivatives Deepen Market Caution

    In addition to the decline in Bitcoin’s supply in profit, off-chain indicators also point to caution. Glassnode analysts note that US Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows between $150 million and $700 million per day over the past two weeks, reversing the strong inflow streak from September and early October. This slowdown reflects a significant decline in institutional appetite, with capital rotating out of Bitcoin exposure as the price declines. 

    Bitcoin 3
    Source: Glassnode

    Bitcoin’s Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has also turned negative on Binance and major exchanges. In derivatives, analysts noted that the Perpetual Market Directional Premium has declined from $338 million in April to $118 million per month, indicating that traders are pulling back on risk and avoiding aggressive long positions.  

    BTC 4
    Source: Glassnode

    For now, Bitcoin remains in a delicate position, oversold but structurally intact. Glassnode experts have stated that the next key test lies at $112,000 and $113,000, where a sustained recovery would signal renewed demand, while further weakness could deepen the correction.  

    Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
    BTC stuck at $103,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

    Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Sandra White

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  • Weakness In Major Cryptos: What Key Technical Metrics Indicate For Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Solana

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    Despite a slight recovery in cryptocurrency prices on Wednesday, experts remain divided on the future direction of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). The market is at a crossroads, with some analysts anticipating a deeper correction, while others see the potential for a renewed recovery.

    iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Hits 52-Week Low 

    According to a report from Barron’s, all three cryptocurrencies have attracted attention from major exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers and President Trump’s administration, spurring hopes that increased institutional adoption could help stabilize volatility. 

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    The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is currently trading more than 20% below its recent 52-week high, which was reached less than a month ago. This peak coincided with the formation of a bearish evening star pattern, and the ETF experienced a notable decline of 3% on October 7. 

    The drop below the $70 mark has added to the bearish sentiment, with the ETF declining in three of the last four weeks, closing within the lower half of its trading range. 

    This week alone has seen an 8% drop, and the ETF recently undercut its 200-day simple moving average, marking a steep 5.5% decline—the largest single-day drop since April 7. 

    For investors to regain confidence, analysts assert that it is crucial for the ETF to hold near current levels and reclaim the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key indicator of bullish momentum. Historically, recoveries have taken about six sessions, as seen back in April.

    Ethereum ETF Faces 17% Weekly Decline

    Ethereum, represented through the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF, has experienced a more pronounced decline, now down 34% from its annual peak and showing a negative year-to-date performance of 5%. This week alone, the ETF has dropped 17%, roughly double the decline seen in the Bitcoin Trust ETF. 

    However, the sharp pullback follows a significant increase of over 220% from early April to late August, making the current retreat appear both prudent and necessary. 

    Notably, the fund has not yet pierced its 200-day simple moving average, having touched it recently while retesting a breakout above a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. 

    The behavior of the ETF around this critical moving average in the coming week will be crucial; if stability can be achieved, it may present an attractive buying opportunity. After facing resistance at the $40 level on August 22, recent price action could be forming a double-bottom base, provided that the recent lows hold.

    Heightened Concerns For Solana

    Solana’s performance has been the most concerning, with its ETF plummeting 41% from its most recent 52-week high set in September. This heightened volatility may reflect the asset’s relative newness, as it began trading only in April. 

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    The Solana ETF peaked on September 18 and has since formed a bearish island reversal pattern. Over the past seven weeks, it has fallen in five of those, with three weeks recording double-digit declines. 

    This week alone, the ETF has dropped another 19% through just two trading sessions. On the daily chart, a break below the bearish head-and-shoulders pivot at $19 raises concerns of a potential measured move down to $12.

    Ultimately, the report suggests that a potential recovery for the trio would imply further inflows into these exchange-traded funds. This would also indicate a new wave of bullish sentiment returning to the market. 

    The daily chart shows BTC’s increased volatility seen over the past month. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,190, marking a 3% surge over the past 24 hours. During the same time frame, ETH and SOL also recorded gains of 5% and 4%, respectively. 

    Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Ronaldo Marquez

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  • Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $99,000: Experts Breaks Down Why

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    Bitcoin endured one of its sharpest selloffs of the year on Tuesday, knifing below the six-figure threshold and printing lows around the $99,000 area on major composites before rebounding. At press time, bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $101,700 after an intraday trough just above $99,000 on widely used benchmarks, marking a fall of roughly 6% day-over-day and the lowest print since June.

    The slide came as US equities limped into mid-week, with the Nasdaq up 20.9% year-to-date and the S&P 500 up 15.1% as of Tuesday’s close—gains that underscore how much bitcoin has lagged other risk assets during long stretches of 2025. That divergence, together with a growing body of ETF-flow data showing several straight sessions of net outflows from US spot bitcoin funds into early November, provided the macro backdrop for a fragile crypto tape. Independent tallies from Farside/SoSoValue and multiple outlets point to a roughly $1.3–$1.4 billion cumulative bleed over four trading days into November 3–4, led by BlackRock’s IBIT.

    Why Is Bitcoin Price Down?

    Into that context, Joe Consorti—Head of Growth at Horizon (Theya, YC)—argues the selloff is less a loss of conviction than a structural handoff of supply. In a video analysis posted late November 4 US time, he framed the day’s move as “one of its roughest days of the year, down more than 6 percent, falling to $99,000 for the first time since June,” adding that while equities would call that “the start of a bear market… for Bitcoin, though, this is typical of a bull market drawdown.” He noted that “we’ve already weathered two separate 30 percent drawdowns during this bull run,” and characterized the present action as “a transfer of Bitcoin’s ownership base from the old guard to the new guard.”

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    Consorti anchored his thesis to a now-viral framework from macro investor Jordi Visser: bitcoin’s “silent IPO.” In Visser’s Substack essay—shared widely since the weekend—he posits that 2025’s rangebound price belies an orderly, IPO-like distribution as early-era holders access the deepest liquidity the asset has ever had through ETFs, institutional custodians and corporate balance sheets.

    “Early-stage investors… need liquidity. They need an exit. They need to diversify,” Visser wrote, arguing that methodical selling “results [in] a sideways grind that drives everyone crazy.” Consorti adopted the frame bluntly: “This isn’t panic selling, it’s the natural evolution of an asset that’s reached maturity… a transfer of ownership from concentrated hands to distributed ones.”

    Evidence for that churn has been visible on-chain. Multiple instances of Satoshi-era wallets and miner addresses reanimating this quarter—some after 14 years—have been documented, including July’s duo of 10,000-BTC wallets and late-October movement from a 4,000-BTC miner address. While not dispositive that coins are being market-sold, the pattern is consistent with supply redistributing from early concentrates to broader, regulated channels.

    Technically, Consorti cast the drop as part of “digestion,” not exhaustion. “The RSI tells us Bitcoin is at its most oversold level since April, when the last leg of the bull run began. Every drawdown this cycle, 30%, 35%, and now 20%, has built support rather than destroyed it.” He added a key conditional: “If we spend too much time below $100,000, that could suggest the distribution isn’t done… perhaps we’re in for a bull-market reversal into a bear market.”

    Macro, however, is intruding. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps on October 29 to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, but Chair Jerome Powell carefully pushed back on the idea of an automatic December cut, citing “strongly differing views” inside the FOMC and a “data fog” from the ongoing government shutdown. Markets promptly tempered their odds for further near-term easing. Consorti’s warning that bitcoin “is extremely correlated” to risk-asset drawdowns therefore looms large: if equities lurch meaningfully lower or funding stress reappears, crypto will feel it.

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    If Visser’s “silent IPO” is right, ETFs are both symptom and salve. They have delivered the two-sided depth to absorb legacy supply but also introduced a new, faster-moving cohort whose redemptions can amplify downdrafts. That dynamic showed up again this week in the four-day string of net outflows concentrated in IBIT, even as longer-term assets under management remain enormous by historical standards.

    Consorti’s conclusion was starkly patient, not euphoric. “For every seller looking to liquidate their position, there’s a new participant stepping in for the long haul… It’s slow, it’s uneven, and it’s psychologically draining, but once it’s finished, it unlocks the next leg higher. Because the marginal seller is gone, and what’s left is a base of holders who don’t need to sell.”

    Whether Tuesday’s pierce of the six-figure floor proves the climactic flush—or merely another chapter in a months-long ownership transfer—will hinge on how quickly price reclaims and bases above $100,000, how ETF flows stabilize, and whether the Fed’s path from here restores risk appetite or starves it. For now, the most important story in bitcoin may be happening under the surface, not on the chart.

    At press time, BTC traded at $101,865.

    Bitcoin bull run hinges on the 50-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • Bitcoin Bears Press On — Is $102,000 Flush The Final Washout Before A Rally?

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    Bitcoin’s price continues to face mounting pressure as it hovers near key support levels. With sellers pushing toward the $102,000 zone, BTC is now at a moment that may mark the final washout before a major rebound. The coming days could be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin finds its footing or continues its decline.

    Bitcoin Faces Pressure Below $108,000 As Bears Regain Control

    Crypto analyst Crypto Candy shared insights into Bitcoin’s latest price action, noting that the flagship cryptocurrency tried to hold the $107,000–$108,000 support zone but ultimately failed to do so, closing below that level. This development signals a potential shift in market dynamics, as the $107,000–$108,000 zone may now act as a strong resistance area. 

    Related Reading

    Crypto Candy further explained that if the downward momentum continues, Bitcoin could retrace deeper toward the $99,000–$101,000 range, an area viewed as a critical support zone where fresh buying interest might emerge. A dip into this range could also help clear out weak positions and create healthier conditions for a long-term rebound.

    BTC’s correction to extend before a bounce | Source: Chart from Crypto Candy on X

    However, the analyst added that if Bitcoin manages to reclaim and hold above the $107,000–$108,000 zone, it would signal that bullish strength is returning to the market. Such a breakout could restore confidence among investors, paving the way for renewed upward momentum and possibly another push toward higher targets. 

    $102,000: The Ideal Flush Zone Before The Next Big Move

    In his latest BTC daily update, Super฿ro emphasized the critical role of the $102,000 support zone, describing it as an ideal area for the market to flush out remaining leveraged long positions. This kind of shakeout is often necessary to clear weak hands and set the stage for a more sustainable bullish continuation.

    Related Reading

    Super฿ro further noted that once this cleanup phase concludes, Bitcoin could see a sharp rebound, primarily fueled by a short squeeze from traders caught on the wrong side of the market. As shorts begin to close their positions, buying pressure could intensify, creating a rapid upward move that reclaims lost levels. 

    That said, the crypto analyst has warned that a break below the $101,000 level would not be ideal, as it might signal that market weakness is deeper than anticipated. Still, he maintains confidence in the broader picture, highlighting that high-timeframe (HTF) indicators remain supportive of a potential rebound.

    Presently, the price of BTC is hovering around $104,000, indicating a more than 3% decline over the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, its trading volume has picked up pace, rising by over 79% in the same time frame.

    Bitcoin
    BTC trading at $103,978 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Godspower Owie

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  • Bitcoin Poised For New Run Beyond $125,000? Nasdaq’s Record Recalls 2021 BTC Pattern

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    The second part of the year has seen a notable surge in the US stock market, while Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market has faced its share of uncertainty and significant corrections. 

    With the Nasdaq recently surpassing the 26,000 mark, leading analysts are now suggesting that this milestone could be a clear indicator for Bitcoin to finish the year at new highs.

    What Historical Patterns Indicate

    According to experts at The Bull Theory, the pattern observed with the Nasdaq reaching all-time highs typically suggests a flow of liquidity, an increased risk appetite, and a shift of capital into growth assets. As this phase develops, it often sets the stage for Bitcoin’s next significant movement.

    Related Reading

    Data compiled by the analysts supports this assertion. Historically, in the first 30 days following a Nasdaq all-time high, Bitcoin has averaged a gain of approximately 7%. This return tends to grow, reaching about 14% within 60 days and climbing to an average of 25% by the 90-day mark. 

    The daily chart shows BTC’s price volatility. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    This pattern is not merely coincidental; it reflects a capital rotation where liquidity does not disappear but instead shifts from traditional markets into higher-risk assets like Bitcoin. 

    The current situation appears to follow a similar trajectory. The Nasdaq’s rise to 26,000 indicates a wave of liquidity building beneath the surface. With rate cuts beginning and quantitative tightening coming to an end, global capital is once again seeking yield. 

    This scenario mirrors the conditions that contributed to Bitcoin’s significant breakouts in previous years, particularly in 2017, 2020, and 2023.

    As such, the analysts note that the next four to five months may represent an acceleration phase for Bitcoin, coinciding with a potential pause in equities, which could lead to crypto becoming the primary outlet for liquidity. 

    Bitcoin Poised For Breakout Similar To 2020-2021 Cycle

    Analysts like Ash Crypto also noted on social media that the BTC/NASDAQ weekly chart is revealing a repeating pattern reminiscent of the 2020-2021 cycle, during which Bitcoin significantly outperformed traditional tech stocks. In both cycles, the October to March timeframe has historically prompted major upward movements. 

    Related Reading

    After a period of consolidation within a rising wedge, the BTC/NASDAQ pair appears poised for another breakout. Should this pattern repeat, Bitcoin may see substantial gains compared to the Nasdaq in the fourth quarter and into early 2026, Ash Crypto noted. 

    Bitcoin
    BTC/NASDAQ weekly chart showing similar bullish pattern to previous cycles. Source: Ash Crypto on X

    Notably, this sets the stage for a major rally that could see Bitcoin prices surpassing current records of over $126,000. However, the market is still characterized by increased volatility, and there is no clear path ahead for BTC.

    The leading cryptocurrency is trading at $113,350 after a 2% correction in Tuesday’s trading session, following an initial surge above $115,000. This puts BTC 6.5% below record highs. 

    Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Ronaldo Marquez

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  • November Preview: Will Bitcoin Break The Cycle Or Repeat It?

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    A widely shared seasonality snapshot is making the rounds ahead of month-end: a Coinglass heat map of Bitcoin’s monthly returns, reposted by trader Daan Crypto Trades. The table spans 2013–2025 and shows November as the statistical outlier in Bitcoin’s calendar—both for eye-popping gains and for sharp drawdowns in certain years.

    Bitcoin November Preview

    “November is Bitcoin’s best month based on historical performance. By far,” Daan wrote on X, pointing to an average November change of +46.02% across the dataset. That figure is visibly distorted by November 2013’s +449.35% surge, the single largest monthly move on the board. He added: “The average gain over all these months is +46.02%. But this is heavily skewed by a single monthly gain in November 2013. Bitcoin went up +449.35%!! that month.”

    The raw counts back up the reputation without the hyperbole. Out of the 12 Novembers listed (2013–2024), 8 finished green—2013 (+449.35%), 2014 (+12.82%), 2015 (+19.27%), 2016 (+5.42%), 2017 (+53.48%), 2020 (+42.95%), 2023 (+8.81%), and 2024 (+37.29%)—while 4 were negative—2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%), and 2022 (-16.23%).

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    The median November change sits at +10.82%, a more conservative central tendency that dampens the 2013 effect. Excluding 2013 entirely, the simple average for November drops to roughly +9.35% across the remaining 11 years, underscoring how one month can skew mean-based seasonality.

    Bitcoin seasonality | Source: X @DaanCrypto

    Context from the broader table matters. November’s average is the highest of any month on Coinglass’s grid, ahead of October’s +20.30% average, while December shows a far more mixed profile with a +4.75% average but a -3.22% median—an imbalance consistent with outlier-driven months.

    September, long maligned by traders, retains a negative average (-3.08%) over the full period. The 2024 row itself captures the push-and-pull of this cycle’s narrative: double-digit gains in February, March, May, October, and November, offset by meaningful drawdowns in April, June, and August, and a negative December print to close the year (-2.85%).

    Lessons From Prior Cycles

    Daan’s framing extends beyond simple seasonality. “November & December is when the 2013, 2017 & 2021 cycles topped out. It’s also where the 2018 & 2022 cycles bottomed out,” he noted. That observation lines up with the historical inflection points most market participants remember: the late-2013 mania and subsequent crash, the December 2017 peak, the November 2021 all-time high, and the December 2018 and November 2022 washouts.

    Related Reading

    The Coinglass grid cannot timestamp intramonth highs or lows, but the clustering of major pivots into the final two months of the year is consistent with the market’s folklore and with the returns pattern that shows both exceptionally strong up months and some of the cycle’s most punishing down months in this window.

    The practical takeaway—again in Daan’s words—is not categorical bullishness, but regime risk: “All in all, an eventful last 2 months of the year generally speaking. Whether it’s on the bullish or bearish side, volatility and big market pivots have been the theme into the end of the year.” The heat map supports that characterization.

    November’s distribution spans the widest extremes on record—from +449.35% at the top to -36.57% on the downside—with a two-thirds hit rate for green months and a median gain in the low double digits. December, by contrast, has produced both cycle tops and cycle bottoms despite a modest average, a reminder that average and median statistics can obscure the path risk that defines Bitcoin’s fourth quarter.

    Seasonality is not destiny, and the sample is limited. Still, the data-backed message is clear: as November approaches, Bitcoin’s historical pattern has been less about quiet trend continuation and more about variance—the kind that has marked both euphoric blow-offs and capitulation lows.

    At press time, BTC traded at $114,487.

    Bitcoin price
    BTC bulls need to reclaim the channel, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • Bitcoin Price Could See A New All-Time High Above $126,000 If It Breaks This Critical Level

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    The Bitcoin price is positioning for a potentially explosive move that could take it well beyond its previous all-time highs. Analysts are closely watching a critical resistance level near $116,000, which may serve as the final hurdle before BTC catapults into uncharted territory above $126,000. 

    Analyst Predicts New Bitcoin Price All-Time High

    Crypto analyst Donny Dicey revealed in an X social media post this week that the $116,000 price level is the decisive zone Bitcoin must breach to confirm a breakout toward a new all-time high. His technical analysis suggests that once BTC achieves a clean break above this resistance area, momentum could swiftly carry it above $126,000. 

    Related Reading

    Notably, Bitcoin set a new ATH on October 6, 2025, after breaking through its previous record above $124,000 and climbing past $126,000. Since achieving this level, the price of BTC has fallen dramatically to $115,000. Dicey’s accompanying chart shows the market steadily recovering after testing support near $108,000, marked as a “market structure break” region, with bullish price action consolidating above $109,000. 

    The analyst has emphasized that each day Bitcoin maintains a close above $109,000 strengthens the probability of a strong upward swing as the market heads into November. This period coincides with the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) next meeting, where investors are anticipating dovish signals such as rate cuts or the formal end of Quantitative Tightening (QT).

    Source: Chart from Donny Dicey on x

    Dicey also notes that bullish S&P 500 earnings, easing global trade tensions from a potential agreement between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, and improving ISM manufacturing data point to a macro environment supportive of risk assets. A community member commented that whales may have underestimated how much BTC’s demand tends to persist during these conditions. Dicey responded that the same whales might become “exit liquidity” as Bitcoin accelerates higher, possibly missing out on the strongest phase of this cycle. 

    Consolidation Above January Highs Signal Unbreakable Strength

    In a follow-up analysis, Dicey highlighted Bitcoin’s remarkable stability above its January highs, describing its price structure as “unbreakable” amid global macroeconomic uncertainty. He pointed to several converging factors that reinforce BTC’s resilience, including ongoing fiscal and monetary expansion, a weakening US dollar, and renewed confidence in the global business cycle. 

    Related Reading

    The analyst also emphasized that geopolitical tensions tied to US-China relations appear to be subsiding. At the same time, ETF inflows and exponential growth in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector contribute to acting as tailwinds for digital assets. He disclosed that despite strong underlying fundamentals, skepticism remains widespread in the market.

    According to him, many still believe in the traditional four-year cycle narrative, while retail enthusiasm has not fully returned. Furthermore, the Russell 2000 index has yet to breakout, and rotation from traditional assets, such as the S&P 500 and gold, into Bitcoin remains limited. With these developments subduing broader market participation, Dicey suggests it creates the perfect setup for a powerful rally in BTC once sentiment shifts decisively.

    Bitcoin
    BTC trading at $115,411 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Scott Matherson

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  • Bitcoin ‘True Bull Run’ May Yet To Begin — Analyst Explains Why

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    Opeyemi is a proficient writer and enthusiast in the exciting and unique cryptocurrency realm. While the digital asset industry was not his first choice, he has remained absolutely drawn since making a foray into the space over two years. Now, Opeyemi takes pride in creating unique pieces unraveling the complexities of blockchain technology and sharing insights on the latest trends in the world of cryptocurrencies.

    Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.

    Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.

    When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.

    Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K.
    Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.

    Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.

    Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.

    Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.

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    Opeyemi Sule

    Source link

  • Bitcoin Price Update: Key Drivers That May Keep The Bull Run Alive Until Q2 2026

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    The Bitcoin price has recently experienced a significant uptick in volatility, positively impacting its performance as it recovered to $110,000 after opening the week at $107,000. 

    Despite this, Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain momentum near all-time high levels, combined with increasing selling pressure over the past month, has led some to speculate that the current bull run may have peaked.

    Analysts at The Bull Theory, on the other hand, have identified key indicators suggesting a shift in Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, with potential for the ongoing bullish trend to extend into 2026. 

    Anticipating Bitcoin Price Peak In Q2 2026

    In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the analysts explained that the typical Bitcoin price pattern has historically followed a straightforward rhythm: Halving, a 12–18 month rally, a blow-off top, and then a bear market. This pattern has held true for over a decade, but recent data indicates a significant change.

    Related Reading

    According to their analysis, Bitcoin is transitioning from a four-year cycle to a five-year cycle, with the next peak anticipated around the second quarter of 2026. This change is attributed to deeper structural shifts within the global economy. 

    Governments are increasingly rolling over debt for longer periods, business cycles are extending, and liquidity waves are moving through the financial system at a slower pace.

    The daily chart shows BTC’s volatility on the rise with a new surge on Thursday above $110,000. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    One key factor pointed by the analysts influencing this lag is that when central banks cease tightening their monetary policies, it typically takes 6 to 12 months for liquidity to reach the markets. 

    The easing signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell in the third quarter of 2025, such as indications of ending balance-sheet contraction, are expected to impact markets well into early 2026, rather than having an immediate effect.

    Additionally, this delay is evident outside the US China’s money supply (M2) has surged to more than double that of the US and continues to expand. Historically, when China’s liquidity grows faster than that of the US, the Bitcoin price tends to rally a few months later, thereby extending the cycle into the first half of 2026. 

    Japan’s new Prime Minister has also initiated an economic package aimed at combating inflation, which is expected to further contribute to global liquidity. 

    On-Chain Data Shows Institutional Accumulation 

    This current cycle is also characterized by institutional accumulation rather than retail hype. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and funds are gradually purchasing and holding Bitcoin for extended periods. 

    Despite the current market conditions, retail interest in Bitcoin remains subdued, with Google Trends showing significantly lower search interest compared to 2021 levels. 

    This indicates that the market is currently in a phase of quiet expansion rather than widespread mania, and retail euphoria—which typically signals the end of market cycles—has yet to materialize.

    Related Reading

    On-chain data supports this mid-cycle structure, revealing that institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin, exchange reserves are near multi-year lows, and miner selling pressure has diminished since the Halving event. 

    Bitcoin price
    Bitcoin reserve on exchanges drop to historical lows. Source: The Bull Theory on X

    While the four-year Halving model remains relevant, the analysts assert that it is now being reshaped by macro liquidity dynamics, institutional pacing, and elongated global cycles. Consequently, the true peak of this bull run may align more closely with Q2 2026 rather than 2025.

    Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Ronaldo Marquez

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  • CryptoQuant’s Moreno Eyes Bitcoin At $195,000 If This Happens

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    Bitcoin’s violent futures deleveraging earlier this month reset market positioning but did not break the broader bull trend, according to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant. Speaking on the Milk Road podcast on October 20, Moreno argued that the path to fresh highs remains open if spot demand stabilizes and the macro overhang from US–China tariff negotiations clears. The key inflection he’s watching is Bitcoin reclaiming its on-chain traders’ realized price near $115,000. “The resistance will be around $115K,” he said. “If the price goes above that… the range that we could expect is $150–$195K. To the downside… it’s around like $100K.”

    Bitcoin Bull Run Is Reset

    Moreno characterized the October 10 deleveraging as the largest dollar liquidation in the history of Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetuals, with roughly $20 billion in open interest wiped out in a single day as total OI fell from an all-time high near $78 billion to around $58 billion, later hovering closer to $56 billion. He noted that in unit terms the event was “a little bit short of the FTX liquidations,” but emphasized that the dollar magnitude reflected today’s larger derivatives base, not a structural break.

    The relative resilience of spot price—Bitcoin “only got to… $110,000” that day, after a wick to “103,000” two days prior—underscored, in his view, that demand and the cycle’s price floor sit well above prior cycles even amid forced unwinds. “It doesn’t put you in a bearish market,” Moreno said, adding that buyers still absorbed supply quickly enough to avert a trend break.

    Related Reading

    CryptoQuant’s composite “bull score” of ten on-chain indicators had already rolled over before the crash, dropping from roughly 80 to 40 by October 6 as momentum cooled and spot demand began to contract. After the liquidation, the score slid toward 20, which Moreno described as “on the bearish side right now.” He stressed that on-chain metrics are not price predictors so much as risk gauges: “It’s going to signal to you the risks… when all these metrics… converge into telling you there’s increasing risks, then it’s when you have to be more careful.”

    Several datapoints pointed to a market that was stretched into the shock. Total crypto open interest set a record near $78 billion just before the event, a classic over-leverage tell. Profit-taking surged above $3 billion in early October as spot neared the prior all-time high in the $124K–$126K zone, fitting CryptoQuant’s “profit–pause–push” framework in which aggressive realization precedes cooling.

    Moreno also highlighted that spot demand flipped from growth to contraction around October 6—days before tariff headlines and the liquidation—helping explain why the risk backdrop was deteriorating even without the macro spark. “We were starting to see some high profit taking… not only because of the macro events,” he said.

    Who’s Selling, Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

    The compositional flow of coins during the drawdown supports the view of a rotation rather than a structural buyer strike. Moreno said “OG” whales and early miners—an aggregate cohort he estimates hold roughly 600,000 BTC excluding Satoshi—resumed distribution as prices pushed past $100K, a recurring dynamic in every cycle as supply migrates to new hands. Institutional demand, by contrast, remained steady.

    Related Reading

    Because ETF custodial wallets often bucket between 100 and 1,000 BTC per address for security, CryptoQuant tracks that “dolphins” cohort as a proxy. “That cohort… is still buying,” Moreno said, adding that whales increased their accumulation “during this correction,” with year-over-year holdings expanding “above trend.” Liquidity conditions corroborate the bid: stablecoin market caps, led by USDT, continued to expand through the drawdown, a pattern he would not expect “if we are… in a bear market.”

    Altcoins were far more fragile around the shock. Transactions sending altcoins to exchanges spiked to year-to-date highs during the liquidation, signaling a scramble for exits across low-liquidity names. Moreno cautioned that this cycle has been notably selective across sectors rather than a blanket “alt season,” and reiterated a theme that has become more obvious in 2025: robust protocol activity and fee generation no longer translate mechanically into token outperformance without explicit economic linkage. “Even if the protocol is doing well doesn’t necessarily mean that the token is going to do well,” he said.

    What To Expect From Q4 And 2026

    Macro remains the wild card for Q4. Moreno believes rate-cut expectations are largely embedded—“the market already… has priced what the Fed will do”—and that only an unexpectedly large cut would be a fresh positive catalyst. By contrast, the US–China tariff trajectory is front-and-center. “If we get that out of the way then… a really positive Q4 can resume,” he said, noting that tariff headlines were the proximate trigger for October’s deleveraging and were also behind a sharper demand contraction back in March–May. Until clarity returns and spot demand re-accelerates, he expects chop around well-defined levels.

    That leaves Bitcoin boxed between a tactical resistance and a psychological floor. Moreno pegs the traders’ on-chain realized price near $115,000 as first resistance and the $100,000 area—where short-term holders sit on roughly a 10% unrealized loss—as the downside line where forced selling typically abates in bull markets.

    A decisive reclaim of $115K would, in his model, validate a run toward $150,000–$195,000. “We’re not that far… from the previous all-time high,” he said, adding that new highs in Q4 are plausible if the tariff overhang resolves. As for the cycle peak, he leans against an extended mania deep into 2026 or 2027, citing CryptoQuant’s diminishing-intensity bull readout even as price has risen. “I would not expect… more than Q1 2026,” he said, with the caveat that timing tops remains guesswork. “Probably we all are going to be wrong.”

    At press time, BTC traded at $108,187.

    BTC retests the EMA200, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • Bitcoin Holding Above Gaussian Channel, Bull Market Structure Still Intact

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    Bitcoin is trading around $107,000 after its recent flash crash, maintaining stability to prevent further decline but is yet to return to trading above $110,000. Notably, popular crypto analyst Titan of Crypto shared a detailed Gaussian Channel analysis on X that points to Bitcoin’s macro bull structure remaining intact despite short-term volatility. His post, which was accompanied by a Bitcoin price chart, shows how Bitcoin’s position relative to the Gaussian Channel offers a clear view of the ongoing cycle.

    Related Reading

    Bull Market Intact Above Gaussian Channel

    Titan of Crypto noted that Bitcoin’s placement above the Gaussian Channel represents strength in the long-term trend. As shown in the weekly candlestick price chart below, the green channel corresponds to bullish phases, while red regions represent bearish downturns, a prime example being the 2022 bear market. 

    At the time of writing, the upper band is positioned around $101,300 and trending upward. Therefore, Bitcoin’s price action around $107,000 means that it is yet to break into the Gaussian channel and its overall market structure is still solid. From this, it can be inferred that Bitcoin’s current pullback from the October 6 all-time high above $126,000 is only a temporary pause within a larger bull market.

    Bitcoin Gaussian Channel. Source: Titan of Crypto on X

    However, although the Gaussian Channel reading looks favorable, Titan of Crypto noted that the indicator should not be treated as a trading trigger. “It’s not a buy signal, it’s a macro context indicator,” he stated. Being above the Gaussian Channel doesn’t necessarily equate to buying more. It simply means the bull market structure is still intact. 

    The Gaussian Channel works best when combined with other indicators such as trading volume, moving averages, and on-chain accumulation trends to confirm directional momentum.

    BTCUSD currently trading at $108,099. Chart: TradingView

    Coinbase Premium Gap Turns Red

    Speaking of other indicators, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that the Coinbase Premium Gap, a metric comparing Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase versus other exchanges, has turned red. As shown in the chart below, Coinbase’s Premium Gap went on a sharp decline from positive premium levels above +60 earlier in the week to as low as -40 when the Bitcoin price fell to $101,000.

    Bitcoin: Coinbase Premium Gap

    Interestingly, the Coinbase Premium Gap has increased to around -10 at the time of writing, meaning US investors are starting to turn bullish again. This can be seen as a bullish signal, as similar dips in US demand were recorded between March and April before the Bitcoin price eventually rallied more than 60% to reach new all-time highs.

    Related Reading

    However, a red Coinbase Premium Gap alone is not decisive. It should be interpreted alongside other data points, including ETF inflows, trading volume, liquidity, and derivatives funding rates. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $107,120.

    Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView

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    Scott Matherson

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  • Bitcoin LTH Inflow On Binance Surges Tenfold Within Days — What This Could Mean

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    Opeyemi is a proficient writer and enthusiast in the exciting and unique cryptocurrency realm. While the digital asset industry was not his first choice, he has remained absolutely drawn since making a foray into the space over two years. Now, Opeyemi takes pride in creating unique pieces unraveling the complexities of blockchain technology and sharing insights on the latest trends in the world of cryptocurrencies.

    Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.

    Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.

    When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.

    Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K.
    Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.

    Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.

    Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.

    Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.

    [ad_2]

    Opeyemi Sule

    Source link

  • Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Is Ready To Surge: ‘We Would Already Be Below $108,000 If The Crash Wasn’t Over’

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    As the week draws to a close, Bitcoin continues to show signs of resilience following its dramatic flash crash to the $101,000 price level last weekend. After days of intense volatility and heavy liquidations across the market, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has managed to stabilize above this level, even reaching as high as $113,400 during the week. 

    In this context, crypto analyst Tyrex shared a bullish outlook on X, stating that the worst of the downturn is behind and that Bitcoin could soon be gearing up for an upward surge back to $117,000.

    Bitcoin’s Price Action Reinforces Bottoming Thesis

    Tyrex believes Bitcoin’s repeated defense of the $108,000 to $105,000 zone is a strong indication that the market has already bottomed out. Throughout the week, price action remained around this critical area despite continued selling pressure. This means there is the presence of a firm support at this level. 

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    The analyst explained that if the correction were still unfolding, Bitcoin would have already slipped below $108,000. Instead, the consistent retest and hold of this range suggests exhaustion of the bearish trend and a setup for a rebound. Such resilience after major drawdowns has often preceded powerful recovery rallies in previous Bitcoin market cycles.

    According to Tyrex, Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase is forming a base for the next leg higher. He projected that the price could climb toward $117,000 in the coming sessions once short-term resistance levels are cleared. The broader technical structure still favors the bulls, with many traders viewing last weekend’s crash as a reset that flushed out excessive leverage rather than a signal of long-term weakness. Momentum indicators have also begun to flatten out, and we could see renewed buying interest from both retail and institutional traders into the next week.

    Altcoins To Benefit From Bitcoin’s Strength

    Tyrex also suggested that the broader crypto market will follow Bitcoin’s lead once it begins to move decisively upward. The majority of altcoins followed Bitcoin’s crash last weekend and plunged massively. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all fell below support levels as market sentiment soured.

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    However, smaller assets are beginning to stabilize alongside Bitcoin, due to confidence among traders expecting the worst to be over. Tyrex warned investors not to misinterpret the ongoing sideways movement as a sign of further decline, noting that “the market already crashed, let it rest.”

    At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $105,300. Heading into the new weekend, Bitcoin’s ability to close the week above $105,000 could set the stage for a breakout to $111,000 and $117,000. If this scenario unfolds, Tyrex’s projection that the crash has concluded and a new uptrend is forming could soon prove accurate. However, failure to hold above $105,000 could lead to a further downtrend.

    BTC trading at $103,981 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Scott Matherson

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  • Bitcoin Fate Sealed By October 31? Analyst Says The Clock Is Ticking

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    Bitcoin slipped below three-day Ichimoku cloud support on Wednesday, prompting market technician Dr Cat (@DoctorCatX) to flag the first decisive warning for bulls while outlining a tight sequence of conditional signals into month-end. Sharing a chart on X, he wrote: “Bulls finally lost the 3D kumo support which is the first clear red flag to look for.” He cautioned that the breakdown does not guarantee a straight-line slide, adding that “the kumo is very thick here which means the price can be very spiky/turbulent and even further down moves may be ‘bumpy’ for bears with bounces etc…”

    Why Bitcoin’s Next Bull Window Opens October 31

    The analyst framed the next tests through the lens of Ichimoku’s time-price structure and the weekly baseline. “Probably the clearest indication for now to watch for would be the time cycles and whether the weekly Kijun Sen will hold,” he said, specifying levels at $105.700 for the current week and “$109,559” for next week. In Ichimoku methodology, the weekly Kijun Sen functions as a mean-reversion axis; sustained closes below it typically confirm momentum deterioration, while defenses of the line can reassert trend control without requiring an immediate new high.

    Bitcoin Ichimoku cloud analysis | Source: X @DoctorCatX

    Dr Cat’s near-term line in the sand on daily closing conditions is clear: “If today closes above $113K we don’t have an indication for an immediate danger of a bearish continuation.” That threshold sits alongside his broader stance that separates time horizons. He reiterated that his “Long term = Bullish with the same targets I’ve shared many times,” but recast the shorter outlook as “Short to mid term = Neutral, range between ~$100K and prev ATH.”

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    Rather than declaring a hard bottom, he now views sentiment as a risk factor in its own right: “I said recently that the bottom should be put by the 13th of October — and even already in. But today after observing the sentiment I have strong concerns about red flags… I haven’t seen in a very long time so much mass bullish confidence and even arrogance across Twitter. So at this point I will simply not try to guess whether the bottom is in or not.”

    He mapped out escalation points if downside resumes. “Short term bearish triggers would be a renew of the crash low briefly after the 13th of October, mid-term bearish trigger: the same but after the 19th, even better after the 26th of October.” In other words, a swift retest immediately after October 13 would raise short-term alarms, while fresh lows registered after October 19 or October 26 would strengthen the case that the corrective phase has more to run. He also downplayed the odds of a straight snapback, warning that “even if the bottom is in, a V-shaped recovery remains extremely unlikely.”

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    Against that caution, Dr Cat still identifies a specific window for bullish validation. Anchoring to Ichimoku’s Chikou Span alignment on the daily and three-day timeframes, he said “the earliest window of opportunity for a bull breakout above ATH is the 31st of October.” That timing caveat is critical: the October 31 marker is a first possible opening, not a guarantee, contingent on price stabilizing around or above the weekly Kijun and avoiding those date-based bearish triggers.

    The shared chart underscores the nuance: price slipping beneath the three-day cloud is a mechanical negative, but the thickness of the cloud and proximity of higher-timeframe supports imply choppy discovery rather than a clean trend resolution before the end of the month.

    Taken together, Dr Cat’s framework is binary but conditional. A daily close back above $113,000 would blunt “immediate” continuation risk and keep the weekly Kijun defenses in play at $105,700 this week and $109,559 next week. Failure to hold those rails — particularly if accompanied by renewed lows after the 19th or 26th — would harden the corrective bias and defer any credible breakout attempt.

    As the calendar tightens, the market now has a clear checklist into October 31, when, per his model, the first “window of opportunity” opens for a move that could credibly threaten and surpass the previous all-time high.

    At press time, Bitcoin stood at $111,479.

    Bitcoin price
    BTC stabilizes around 112,000, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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