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Tag: banking

  • The Fed isn’t about to back down from its inflation fight | CNN Business

    The Fed isn’t about to back down from its inflation fight | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    London
    CNN Business
     — 

    Twelve days from now, the Federal Reserve will meet again, and expectations for the central bank’s next moves are firming up. The consensus among investors: Persistently hot inflation means the Fed will need to continue with its string of aggressive interest rate hikes, which is unprecedented in the modern era.

    What’s happening: Markets see a 99% probability that rates will rise by another three-quarters of a percentage point, reaching a range of 3.75% to 4%.

    A hike of that magnitude is now “a given,” Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, told clients on Wednesday. “Concern is now focused on December, and whether the Fed is prepared to transition to smaller rate hikes.”

    That’s up from a 60% probability one month ago. So what changed?

    Inflation, mainly. The US Consumer Price Index rose 8.2% in the year to September after rising 8.3% annually in August. While CPI peaked at 9.1% in June, that reading was still uncomfortably elevated and higher than economists had expected.

    The 6.6% annual uptick in shelter costs was of particular concern. It takes longer for housing expenses to come back down than some other categories, since renters tend to sign leases for 12-month periods. The monthly rise in core services costs (excluding energy) was the largest gain in three decades.

    The data underscored the need for the Federal Reserve to stay tough — while a strong jobs report for September will deliver confidence the central bank can do so without causing undue harm to the US economy.

    Fed officials have said as much. In an interview with Reuters on Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said inflation had become “pernicious,” which means that “frontloading” larger rate hikes is logical.

    The market impact: The S&P 500 kicked off the week with a 3.8% rally before dropping 0.7% on Wednesday. It’s still plodding along in a bear market, about 23% below its January peak. So long as the Fed signals its intention to keep the pressure on, boosting the odds of a US recession, volatility is expected to persist.

    Even relatively solid corporate earnings may not be sufficient to change the direction.

    “So far, the results are decent, but they’re being compared to consensus estimates that have been persistently lowered since early summer,” noted strategists at Charles Schwab.

    Tesla

    (TSLA)
    posted a solid quarter of earnings and record revenue, but now says it will likely fall short of its target for a 50% growth in the number of cars it sells this year.

    Quick rewind: As recently as July, the company said it was still aiming for a target of 50% growth from the 936,000 cars it delivered in 2021.

    But with two quarters of disappointing deliveries caused by supply chain issues and Covid-related shutdowns in China, that goal has looked increasingly out of reach, my CNN Business colleague Chris Isidore reports.

    CEO Elon Musk said that the electric carmaker is not struggling with demand.

    “We expect to sell every car that we make, for as far in the future as we can see,” he said on a call with analysts on Wednesday.

    Instead, the company said it would “just” miss its target due to complications with delivery of cars from its factories to customers at the end of the year.

    Shares are down 5% in premarket trading on Thursday. They’ve dropped 37% year-to-date, compared to a 22.5% fall in the S&P 500.

    “This quarter was not roses and rainbows,” said Dan Ives, tech analyst for Wedbush Securities. “Competition is increasing. There are some logistical challenges.”

    America’s business leaders are becoming more pessimistic. The Conference Board recently reported a slide in its CEO confidence index, which it said had hit levels not seen “since the depths of the Great Recession.”

    Of the 136 CEOs who were surveyed, 98% said they were preparing for a US recession over the next 12 to 18 months — and 99% said they were bracing for a recession in Europe.

    Notably, the business community is not being quiet about its concerns.

    Amazon founder Jeff Bezos tweeted Tuesday that “the probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches.”

    He was responding to a clip of an interview with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who told CNBC that “it’s a time to be cautious.”

    “You have to expect that there’s more volatility on the horizon now,” Solomon said. “That doesn’t mean for sure that we have a really difficult economic scenario. But on the distribution of outcomes, there’s a good chance that we have a recession in the United States.”

    American Airlines

    (AAL)
    , AT&T

    (T)
    , Dow, Nucor

    (NUE)
    and Quest Diagnostics

    (DGX)
    report results before US markets open. CSX

    (CSX)
    , Snap

    (SNAP)
    and Whirlpool

    (WHR)
    follow after the close.

    Also today:

    • Initial US jobless claims for last week post at 8:30 a.m. ET.
    • Existing home sales for September follow at 10 a.m. ET.

    Coming tomorrow: Earnings from American Express and Verizon.

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  • Home builders sentiment index falls for record tenth month in a row in October. Home builders say the ‘situation is unhealthy and unsustainable.’

    Home builders sentiment index falls for record tenth month in a row in October. Home builders say the ‘situation is unhealthy and unsustainable.’

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    The numbers:  The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) monthly confidence fell 8 points to 38 in October, the trade group said on Tuesday.

    It’s the tenth month in a row that the index has fallen.

    Outside of the pandemic, the October reading of 38 is the lowest level since August 2012.

    A year ago, the index stood at 80.

    The index’s ten-month drop is a new record. The index last fell for 8 months straight in 2006 and 2007.

    Key details: All three gauges that underpin the overall builder-confidence index fell.

    • The gauge that marks current sales conditions fell by 9 points. 

    • The component that assesses sales expectations for the next six months fell by 11 points.

    • And the gauge that measures traffic of prospective buyers fell by 6 points.

    All four NAHB regions posted a drop in builder confidence, led by the south and the west. 

    It’s also likely that this year will be the first time since 2011 that single-family starts see a decline, the NAHB added.

    Big picture: Builders continue to struggle to find buyers with the current rate environment.

    Now they’re saying they’re worried about that depressed demand impacting supply moving forward.

    Specifically, they’re concerned about housing affordability worsening, with potentially fewer new homes being built in the future.

    Mortgage rates have doubled from last year, now exceeding 7%, which has considerably cooled buyer demand. 

    Home price growth is moderating, but prices have not come down substantially — yet. 

    The median sales price for a new home was $436,800 in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

    What the NAHB said: Builders are expecting single-family starts to fall for the first time in 11 years — and expect additional declines through 2023, said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, due to the Federal Reserve’s projected rate hikes to control inflation.

    While some analysts have suggested that the housing market is now more ‘balanced,’ the truth is that the homeownership rate will decline in the quarters ahead as higher interest rates, and ongoing elevated construction costs continue to price out a large number of prospective buyers,” he added.

    “This situation is unhealthy and unsustainable,” Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. and the NAHB’s chairman, said in a statement.
    “Policymakers must address this worsening housing affordability crisis,” he added.

    What are they saying? “The housing sector – sentiment, building activity and sales – is collapsing under the weight of a rapid increase in interest rates and elevated prices, which are crimping affordability and demand,” Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note.

    So expect building activity to be depressed, she added.

    Market reaction: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.989%

    fell to 3.98% on Tuesday morning.

    While the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
    XHB,
    +2.15%

    traded slightly higher during the morning session, and the big home-builder stocks, from D.R. Horton Inc.
    DHI,
    +2.90%

    to Toll Brothers
    TOL,
    +1.87%

    to Lennar
    LEN,
    +2.97%
    ,
    edged higher.

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  • What could the roll-out for instant payments mean for Switzerland? Three evolutions to consider – Banking blog

    What could the roll-out for instant payments mean for Switzerland? Three evolutions to consider – Banking blog

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    The wide-scale rollout of instant payments planned for August 2024 will require financial institutions to upgrade their payments systems, and the market participants may see fundamentals shift. Here we look at three evolutions and their impact on payments in Switzerland.

    In August 2024, SIX SIC (Swiss Interbank Clearing) Phase 5 will roll out instant payments (IP). Banks will be required to upgrade their payments systems to allow for real-time settlement, fraud detection, and liquidity management. IP will reduce operational costs via automation and capture additional revenue from corporate clients and customers with high payments value and volume. As a result, greater customer satisfaction, economic benefits, and new service offerings are expected.

    We look at three evolutions in which IP can change the payments landscape in Switzerland.

    This blogpost is the first in our series dedicated to “The future of payments in Switzerland – strategic outlook for financial and payments services executives”.  

    3 phases on how IP can change the payments landscape in Switzerland

    Evolution 1: IP becoming the norm in Switzerland – Banks upgrade their operating models and increase automation

    In the current system, inter-bank payments take at least one business day. The new IP system will enable immediate settlement, including payments of bills and large-value transactions. This will require banks to manage their liquidity in real-time and process related payments instantaneously, including exception handling, fraud detection, and regulatory compliance with AML regulations.

    To establish their business case for IP banks must factor in upgrades to their systems and operating model and implement the required automation of their payment processes.

    Savings are expected from reduced operating costs due to the enhanced automation of payment processes. To further support the business case, banks must analyse the pricing structure for their IP services and assess how to include them in retail account packages under predefined limits (in volume and value) while charging a convenience fee for transactions with higher volume or value. For corporate clients, additional sources of revenue can be found from use cases where IP packaged with cash management solutions can be sold at a higher value.

    Evolution 2: IP acting as an enabler for point of sale and online payments – POS and e-commerce IP-enabled solutions

    Retailers in Switzerland currently rely on card transactions and mobile payment methods such as TWINT for both point of sale and online transactions. The new IP technology will impact these payment methods: fintechs could be encouraged to build account to account payment offerings with IP charging lower fees. Switzerland’s payment processors (SIX and financial institutions) could respond to this threat by assessing whether combining a request to pay (R2P) service, such as eBill with IP should become a preferred solution, shifting payment at the point of sale to clients’ e-banking channels. To enable this a new solution for both online payments and point of sale (POS) systems would be designed.

    Banks could also benefit from gathering data from IP about customer behaviour through data analytics of anonymised aggregated data.

    Evolution 3: IP expediting new banking digital solutions – IP becomes an enabler for online offerings

    For the retail market, there are currently already several digital banking and investment services, operating in Switzerland. Using IP for these services customer onboarding attrition can be reduced, given the ability to onboard and instantly fund a new account online. Fintech banking platforms in the Swiss market such as Neon, Yapeal, Revolut, N26 should consider its implementation. Traditional banks, such as Credit Suisse’s CSX, UBS’s 4Key, Bank Cler’s Zak and Post Finance, will need to assess how fintech’s use of IP could compete with their own digital offerings. or N26 and investment management fintechs such as Kaspar& and traditional banks digital offerings, such as Credit Suisse’s CSX, UBS’s 4Key, Post Finance and Bank Cler’s Zak should study how to optimize their customer journeys with IP to enable instant onboarding.

    Similar evolution is expected on the corporate and private banking market: IP can enable solutions to be built by fintechs and banks to enable real-time cash management for corporates, funds, and high-net worth individuals powered by open banking platforms such as Swiss SIX’s bLink offering.

    Finally, the ongoing work on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) by both the Swiss central bank (Project Helvetia) and the European central bank (Digital Euro) is a long-term driver for Banks to assess how best to implement their payments operations and architecture to future-proof themselves for upcoming CBDC release: IP functionalities are a required step in that journey.

    What now?

    Each of the three evolutions aims to provide a better customer experience, new offerings, and optimized costs. Still, their success depends on the strategic outlook of the payments’ stakeholders in the Swiss market for the following years. First-mover advantage and studying a long-term payments strategy will support navigating payments challenges successfully:

    • Future-proofing the payments system architecture and upgrading it to support IP
    • Digitalising operations with a focus on achieving fully digital front-to-back flows and
    • Using customer data to identify long-term trends and incorporating them into building innovative payments strategies/offerings
    Sergio cruz blog

    Sergio Cruz, Partner, Consulting

    Sergio is the lead Partner of Deloitte’s Business Operations practice in Zurich and has more than 25 year of experience in Consulting. He focuses on large scale front-to-back digitalisation programs in financial services and has worked on several large assignments both in Switzerland and abroad, covering the implementation of regulatory requirements and the definition as well as implementation of target operating models and process optimisations.

    Email | LinkedIn

    David Klidjian_3 (002)

    David Klidjian, Director, Consulting

    David is Deloitte Switzerland’s Core Business Operations Banking lead and a Director in the Consulting practice in Zurich, with global experience gained in consultancy and the banking industry. He has a macro view across banking products, services, regulations, and systems, as well as detailed knowledge of key processes in private banking, compliance and capital markets/sales and trading. He has advised clients through impactful, multi-year business transformation in top tier private and investment banks in Switzerland, the UK, the US, and APAC.

    Email  | LinkedIn

    David frei

    David Frei, Director, Consulting

    David is Deloitte Switzerland’s Payments Lead and a Director in the Business Operations Consulting practice in Zurich, with global experience gained in Consultancy and the Banking industry. He has vast experience and a macro view across retail and banking payments, financial service products, consumer, payments costs, regulations and systems as well as detailed knowledge of key processes in Acquiring, PSP and omni-channel/e-commerce payments. He has advised large clients through impactful payments transformation and digital payments projects in Switzerland and Europe.

    Email| LinkedIn 

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  • ‘Material risk’ looms over stocks as investors face bear market’s ‘second act,’ warns Morgan Stanley

    ‘Material risk’ looms over stocks as investors face bear market’s ‘second act,’ warns Morgan Stanley

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    Stock-market investors have been adjusting to the jump in interest rates amid high inflation, but they have yet to cope with profit headwinds faced by the S&P 500, according to Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

    “While a rate peak may solidify estimates for the equity risk premium and valuation multiples, equity investors still face the bear market’s second act — the earnings outlook,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Monday. 

    “They have been slow to recognize that pricing power and operating margins, which hit all-time highs in the past two years, are unsustainable,” she said. “Even without a recession, the mean reversion of profits in 2023 translates to a 10%-to-15% decline from current estimates.”


    MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT NOTE DATED OCT. 17 2022

    Unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus during the throes of the pandemic had led to the largest U.S. companies booking record operating margins that were 150 to 200 basis points above norms seen in the past decade, according to Shalett. 

    See: Stock market’s wild gyrations put earnings in focus as inflation crushes Fed ‘pivot’ hopes

    She said that company profits may now be imperiled by slowing growth, with “demand skewing toward services” after pulling forward toward goods earlier in the pandemic, and a likely reversal in “extremely strong” pricing power as the Fed fights surging inflation with interest-rate hikes.

    “Such risks are not discounted in 2023 consensus yet, constituting a material risk to stocks for the remainder of the year,” Shalett said.

    While many sectors have discounted the potential drop in 2023 profits from current estimates that could stir headwinds even with no recession, “the megacap secular growth stocks that dominate market-cap indexes have not,” she warned. “And those indexes are where risk gets repriced in the bear market’s final stages.”

    Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson estimates as much as 11% downside from consensus estimates, with his base-case, earnings-per-share forecast for the S&P 500 for 2023 being $212, according to Shalett’s note. 

    U.S. stocks were bouncing Monday, with major stock benchmarks trading sharply higher in the afternoon, after sinking Friday amid inflation concerns as earnings season got under way. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.65%

    was up 2.7% in afternoon trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +1.86%

    gained 1.9% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 3.5%, FactSet data show, last check. 

    In the bond market, Treasury rates were trading slightly lower Monday afternoon, after the 2-year yield hit a 15-year high and the 10-year yield notched a 14-year high on Friday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Two-year yields ended last week at 4.507%, the highest level since August 8, 2007 based on 3 p.m. Eastern time levels, while the 10-year rate climbed to 4.005% for its highest rate since Oct. 15, 2008.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.992%

    was down about 1 basis point Monday afternoon at around 4%, while two-year yields
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.439%

    fell about five basis points to around 4.45%, FactSet data show, at last check.

    Meanwhile, as investors capitulated to higher inflation, “peak policy rates moved up aggressively in the fed funds futures market, with the terminal rate now at nearly 5%, an aggressive stance that smacks of ‘peak hawkishness,’” according to the Morgan Stanley note.

    “Critically, although the market is still pricing 1.5 cuts in 2023, the January 2024 fed-funds rate is estimated at 4.5%, a comfortable 100 basis points above our forecast” for core inflation measured by the consumer-price index, Shalett wrote.

    “Consider locking in solid short-term yields in bonds and shoring up positions in high growth, dividend-paying stocks,” she said. “Short-duration Treasuries look attractive, especially because the yield is more than 2.5 times that of the dividend yield on the S&P 500.”

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  • Bank of America Reports Earnings Monday. What Wall Street Is Watching.

    Bank of America Reports Earnings Monday. What Wall Street Is Watching.

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    Bank of America Reports Earnings Monday. What Wall Street Is Watching.

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  • I want to retire next year, but I have $25,000 in credit card debt and a major monthly mortgage payment — I also live with my three kids and ex

    I want to retire next year, but I have $25,000 in credit card debt and a major monthly mortgage payment — I also live with my three kids and ex

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    I’ll be 57 next month and am divorced with three kids living with me. One is 28, she’s working, another is 21 and a senior in college (with a full scholarship) and the youngest is 15 (a sophomore in high school with a full scholarship). 

    I plan to retire at the end of next year with $25,000 in credit card debt and 15 more years to pay my mortgage. The credit cards have 0% interest. I have a good medical benefit when I retire and it will cover my two sons under 26 years old. My monthly expenses are $2,000, including life insurance, utilities, and a car payment.  

    My mortgage is around $4,000 monthly impounded. The interest rate is 2% until January 2022, then 3% until January 2023 and the remaining loan is 4.5%. Is it worth it to refinance to a lower rate? I also plan to just pay the principal and pay interest in December and April. I have two credit cards: one that totals $20,000, where the 0% promo ends in April 2021, and another with $4,500 where the 0% interest promo ends this December. 

    I work for the state and have a pension and 401(k) and 457 investments that total $110,000. I also have one month’s worth of expenses in an emergency fund. I can only apply for a loan to the retirement accounts while employed. 

    I would like to ask if retiring will be a good idea. If so, is it appropriate to take a loan with my investment to pay off the credit card debt before retiring? Based on our benefit, I don’t have to repay the debt (to the 401(k)) after my retirement unless I win the lottery or something. There won’t be a penalty. My annual gross income is $96,000.

    I’m a cohabitant with my ex on the house but get no contribution from him at all. I am working with my lawyer to see if I have the right to kick him out of the house.

    Please help.

    Thank you.

    CDT

    See: I’m a 57-year-old nurse with no retirement savings and I want to retire within seven years. What can I do?

    Dear CDT, 

    You have a lot to juggle, so the fact that you’re reaching out to someone for some financial guidance should be deemed an accomplishment all its own!

    The truth is, you may want to hold off on retiring if you can. Having $110,000 in retirement accounts is great, and you don’t want to have to start dwindling that down while also trying to manage a way to effectively pay down credit card debt and a mortgage. Should an emergency arise, taking a big chunk out of that nest egg could end up hurting you significantly in the long run. 

    “I think she needs to take a hard look at her income and expenses,” said Tammy Wener, a financial adviser and co-founder of RW Financial Planning. “When it comes to retirement, so many things are out of your control, like inflation and investment return. The one thing you do have control over is expenses.” Furthermore, your pension may be enough to maintain your lifestyle — though advisers wondered what exactly you would be getting from that pension every month — but you would still be better off with a larger nest egg to fall back on. 

    Say you retire next year after all, but you still have credit card debt and hefty bills to pay. Any retirement income you have with and outside of your current funds may not be sufficient for your current living expenses, and if in a few years you realize this, you could end up back in the workforce — though it may be hard to get the same or a similar job you already have. 

    Let’s look at your 401(k) and 457 plans for a moment. You said you could take a loan and based on your benefit you don’t need to pay it back, but you should be extremely cautious about this. With 401(k) loans, employees may be required to repay that loan if they’re separated from their employers, so this is a stipulation you should absolutely verify. If there was any misunderstanding as to how a loan is treated, that remaining loan would be treated as taxable income when you left your job, Wener said. 

    Financial advisers usually caution investors not to take loans and withdrawals from retirement accounts if they can avoid it, and in your case, this may be especially true as you plan to retire in the next year. When you take a loan, you may be paying yourself and your account back, but your balance is reduced by the amount of the loan, which means you could lose out on investment returns. In the midst of this pandemic, many of the Americans who took a loan or withdrawal regret it now, a recent survey found. “I would not recommend ‘swapping debt’ by taking a loan from her investments,” said Hank Fox, a financial planner. “Instead, she should pay whatever amount is due each month to avoid the finance charges and continue to pay-down the balances.” 

    Don’t miss: 5 ways to find free financial advice

    Also, consider what would happen if you continued to work: you’d still be able to contribute to a retirement account, boost your savings and, if applicable, reap the rewards with an employer match. You’d also narrow the amount of time you have between retirement and when you can claim Social Security benefits, Fox said. 

    Outside of the retirement accounts, you should try to build a “sizable” emergency fund, Wener said. Financial advisers typically suggest three to six months’ worth of living expenses, though you might want to strive for closer to six to offset any undesirable scenarios. 

    I’m not sure what the motivation was to retire next year, but if you can delay it, this may be the best solution. “The first thing I would recommend is that she reconsider retiring next year,” Fox said. “Since she will be 57 in November and assuming she is in good health, she should expect to be in retirement for 30 years or more.” 

    If postponing retirement is not an option, and it isn’t always, he suggests reducing or eliminating your mortgage, since it’s your largest expense by far. You could refinance, Wener said. Interest rates are very low these days, and while you may end up paying a little more every month for the next two years compared with that 2% rate you currently have, you’d end up paying the same and then less from February 2022 and on. 

    As for your credit cards, having a 0% interest rate is such a huge help in paying off debts faster, so you should try to extend that benefit, either by calling and asking about your options with your current credit card company or looking at alternative 0% interest cards. 

    A financial adviser — specifically, a Certified Financial Planner — could really help you crunch the numbers and find meaningful ways to make the most of the money you have now and will be getting in retirement, said Vince Clanton, principal and investment adviser representative at Chancellor Wealth Management. 

    An adviser can gather information on your current earnings and expenses, retirement savings, potential Social Security benefits and pension and create a financial plan to help you navigate retirement. “Voluntary retirement, and particularly early retirement, are very big decisions,” Clanton said. “It’s extremely important to know and understand all of the variables.” 

    Letters are edited for clarity.

    Have a question about your own retirement savings? Email us at HelpMeRetire@marketwatch.com

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  • Weekend reads: The Federal Reserve gets a lot of flak for inflation, but it has actually hit its target recently

    Weekend reads: The Federal Reserve gets a lot of flak for inflation, but it has actually hit its target recently

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    The U.S. stock market benchmark rebounded from a steep loss on the day when the government published hot inflation numbers.

    The S&P 500 Index ended Thursday with a 2.6% gain after investors took a closer look and saw a significant improvement from July through September, as Rex Nutting explained.

    The whipsaw action wasn’t limited to stocks, and was described by Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer for global fixed income at BlackRock, as “one of the craziest days” of his career.

    The bond market’s warning

    Some investors who focus on stocks might not realize that the bond market is much larger, and that its movements can cause government and central-bank policies to shift. Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense,” which described the 2008 failure of Lehman Brothers, explained just how bad the action was in the U.K. bond market over the past few weeks, when 30-year government bonds issued in December traded as low as 24 cents on the dollar. He also predicted what will happen if the Federal Reserve continues on its current course of interest-rate increases.

    Related outlooks for interest rates:

    Bullish signs for long-term stock investors

    Getty Images

    Michael Brush argues the Federal Reserve is moving too quickly to raise interest rates and cool the U.S. economy. He expects a rapid decline in inflation and a new bull market for stocks. In a column, he shares five sentiment indicators that suggest it is time to buy stocks — especially this group of companies.

    More: Here’s how you’ll know stock-market lows are finally here, says the legendary investor who called 1987 crash

    Don’t forget to look over your portfolio

    Beth Pinsker explains how to make sure your investments are best diversified to fit your needs during time of uncertainty in all financial markets.

    Read on: $22 billion in I-bond sales can’t be wrong. Why you may want to buy them even when their rate resets soon

    Time for a refreshing COLA if you are on Social Security

    Getty Images

    The Social Security Administration has announced that its cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2023 will be 8.7%, the largest increase in four decades. There is more to the story, including tax implications and changes to Medicare, as Jessica Hall and Alessandra Malito explain.

    Related: Can I stop and restart Social Security benefits?

    Pay attention to Medicare open enrollment

    Getty Images/iStockphoto

    Medicare’s annual open enrollment season runs from Oct. 15 to Dec. 7. The majority of Medicare recipients don’t review their plans each year, which can cost them a lot of money. Here’s how to approach Medicare’s 2023 enrollment period.

    You won’t like this ‘new normal’ for the housing market

    West Coast housing markets are already seeing price declines as mortgage loan rates hit 7%.


    Stefani Reynolds/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

    Freddie Mac said interest rates on 30-year mortgage loans averaged 6.92% on Oct. 13, up from 3.05% a year earlier. Mortgage Daily said rates had hit 7.10% — the highest in 20 years — and economists are warning these levels could be a “new normal.”

    A homeowner locked-in with a low interest rate on their mortgage loan will be reluctant to sell. And some would-be buyers may now be priced out of the market because of much higher loan payments. Here’s what economists expect for home prices in 2023.

    More housing coverage from Aarthi Swaminathan: ‘No housing market is immune to home-price declines’: Home values are already falling in these pandemic boomtowns.

    Tips for maximizing financial aid for college

    Getty Images/iStockphoto

    When you fill out the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA, to help pay for your child’s college education, there may be a problem — old news. The form reflects your financial situation up to two years ago, and things may have worsened recently. Here’s how to make sure schools have the most recent information to help you get as much financial aid as possible.

    This is why Florida’s insurance market is such a mess

    Florida insurers are not only suffering from storm-damage payouts.


    Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    Hurricanes are nothing new to Floridians, but insurers in the state are losing money even though premiums have doubled over the past five years. Shahid S. Hamid, the director of the Laboratory for Insurance at Florida International University, explains why the Florida insurance market is so distorted.

    Here’s a travel option you may never have heard of — home swapping

    Villefranche-sur-mer on the French Riviera.


    istock

    Home swapping can give you an opportunity to live as a local in a faraway place while spending much less than you would as a tourist. Here’s how it works.

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  • Stocks try for another rally as big banks report earnings | CNN Business

    Stocks try for another rally as big banks report earnings | CNN Business

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    Retail sales data shows consumers are growing cautious about spending amid biting inflation

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  • JPMorgan profit falls but beats estimates while Wells Fargo misses

    JPMorgan profit falls but beats estimates while Wells Fargo misses

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    JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares rose Friday after the megabank beat analyst targets for third-quarter profit and revenue and said it would top forecasts for its net interest in come in the coming quarter.

    In a busy day for bank earnings, Wells Fargo & Co.
    WFC,
    +4.62%

    fell short of earnings target but its stock rose in premarket trades as it beat revenue estimates.

    Morgan Stanley
    MS,
    +3.55%

    shares fell after it missed Wall Street’s targets for earnings and revenue.

    Citigroup Inc.
    C,
    +5.17%

    shares rose after beating its profit mark, although revenue fell 1% after breaking out the impact of divestitures.

    Overall, banks benefited from higher interest rates and strong trading volumes, but investment banking deal activity fell sharply. Banks also channeled more capital into reserves and away from their collective bottom lines to prepare for a potential economic downturn.

    As the largest bank in the U.S. and a bellwether for the sector, JPMorgan Chase
    JPM,
    +5.56%

    turned in a “solid performance” in the latest quarter, in the words of Chief Executive Jamie Dimon.

    The bank said it expects to meet its capital requirements under the international Basel III banking guidelines and resume stock buybacks early in 2023.

    “In the U.S., consumers continue to spend with solid balance sheets, job openings are plentiful and businesses remain healthy,” Dimon said. “However, there are significant headwinds immediately in front of us – stubbornly high inflation leading to higher global interest rates, the uncertain impacts of quantitative tightening, the war in Ukraine, which is increasing all geopolitical risks, and the fragile state of oil supply and prices.”

    Dimon said the bank remains “prepared for bad outcomes” so it can continue to operate even in the most challenging times.

    Dimon’s prepared statement comes a day after the oft-quoted CEO said the U.S. consumer sector remains strong currently, but inflation will start weighing on people by 2023.

    Also Read: JPMorgan CEO Dimon says inflation hasn’t dampened consumer spending yet but give it time

    JPMorgan Chase’s stock rose 2.4% ahead of Friday’s open after it said its third-quarter net income fell 16.7% to $9.74 billion, or $3.12 a share, from $11.69 billion, or $3.74 a share, in the year-ago quarter.

    Third-quarter revenue at the megabank rose to $32.72 billion from $29.65 billion in the year-ago quarter.

    Wall Street analysts expected JPMorgan Chase to earn $2.90 a share on revenue of $32.12 billion, according to estimated compiled by FactSet. T

    The bank said a net credit reserve build of $808 million ate into its net income for the latest quarter, compared with a net reserve release of $2.1 billion in the prior year.

    Net interest income climbed 34% to $17.6 billion and net interest income excluding its Markets unit rose 51% to $16.9 billion on higher interest rates.

    JPMorgan Chase’s total assets under management fell 13% to $2.6 trillion in the face of losses in the equities market and difficult conditions in the bond market.

    Looking ahead, JPMorgan Chase said it expects fourth-quarter net interest income of about $19 billion, ahead of the $18.2 billion analyst estimate.

    Octavio Marenzi, CEO of management consultant company Opimas said the bank’s results were “surprisingly solid” and if you strip away its payments for loan reserves, its profit is basically unchanged.

    “Individual lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgages did predictably badly, but this was more than compensated for by strength in other areas of lending and in trading,” Marenzi said.

    Shares of JPMorgan Chase have lost 30.9% in 2022 compared with a 17.3% drop by the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +2.83%

    and a 23.0% loss by the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.60%
    .

    Wells Fargo misses profit target but share rise

    Wells Fargo & Co. shares advanced 2% in Friday’s premarket after the bank posted net income of $3.528 billion, or 85 cents a share, for the quarter to end September, down from $5.122 billion, or $1.17 a share, in the year-earlier quarter.

    The megabank fell short of the earnings-per-share target of $1.09 a share.

    Wells Fargo’s revenue rose to $19.505 billion from $18.834 billion a year ago, ahead of the $18.775 billion FactSet consensus.

    Chief Executive Charlie Scharf said performance was “significantly impacted” by $2 billion, or 45 cents a share, in operating losses “related to litigation, customer remediation, and regulatory matters primarily related to a variety of historical matters.”

    However, the bank is seeing historically low delinquencies and high payment rates, and the “timing of deterioration in those measures due to high inflation remains unclear. “

    The bank set aside $784 million in provisions for loan losses, after reducing them by $1.395 billion a year ago.

    Net interest income rose 36%, while noninterest income fell 25%, as mortgage banking income declined.

    Citi analyst Keith Horowitz said Wells Fargo turned in a “good” quarter overall, although larger-than-expected one-time charges and a reserve build reduced profits. But Wells Fargo also raised its outlook for net interest income “and we still see upside to 2023 consensus,” Horowitz said.

    Shares of Wells Fargo have declined 12% in the year to date.

    Morgan Stanley shares fall on results

    Morgan Stanley fell 2.6% in premarket trades after the investment bank missed Wall Street’s targets for earnings and revenue amid a drop in deal activity.

    Morgan Stanley said its third-quarter net income fell to $2.49 billion, or $1.47 per share, from net income of $3.7 billion, or $1.98 per share in the year-ago quarter.

    Third-quarter revenue dropped to $12.99 billion from $14.75 billion.

    Wall Street analysts were looking for earnings of $1.52 a share and revenue of $13.29 billion, according to FactSet data.

    “Firm performance was resilient and balanced in an uncertain and difficult environment, delivering a 15% return on tangible common equity,” said CEO James Gorman. “Wealth Management added an additional $65 billion in net new assets and produced a pre-tax margin of 28%, excluding integration-related expenses, demonstrating scale and stability despite declining asset values.”

    Morgan Stanley shares have lost 19.2% in 2022.

    Citi beats targets but shares lose ground

    Citigroup shares fell 1.3% in premarket trades Friday after the bank posted stronger-than-expected profit, but revenue fell 1% after breaking out divestiture-related impacts, as growth in net interest income was more than offset by lower non-interest revenue.

    Citi said its third-quarter net income dropped to $3.5 billion, or $1.63 per share, from $4.6 billion, or $2.15 a share, in the year-ago quarter.

    Excluding divestiture-related impacts, earnings were $1.50 a share.

    Total revenue increased to $18.5 billion from $17.4 billion.

    Analysts were looking for earnings of $1.42 a share and revenue of $18.26 billion for Citigroup, according to a FactSet survey.

    Citi said it continues to shrink its operations in Russia, and expects to end nearly all of the institutional banking services offered in the country next quarter. “To be clear, our intention is to wind down our presence in this country,” Chief Executive Jane Fraser said.

    Shares of Citigroup have dropped 28.9% in 2022.

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  • Food prices are still surging — here’s what’s getting more expensive | CNN Business

    Food prices are still surging — here’s what’s getting more expensive | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN Business
     — 

    Prices at the grocery store continued to soar last month, adding even more pressure to shoppers’ wallets.

    The food at home index, a proxy for grocery store prices, increased 0.7% in September from the month prior and a stunning 13% over the last year, according to new government data released Thursday.

    Just about everything got more expensive in September.

    Fruits and vegetables surged 1.6% for the month, while cereals and bakery products rose 0.9%. Other groceries increased 0.5% in September, following a 1.1% increase in August.

    Meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose 0.4% over the month and beverages increased 0.6%.

    Prices on many of these items are up double digits annually.

    A number of factors have contributed to the surge in prices. Producers say they’re paying more for labor and packaging materials. Extreme weather, including droughts and flooding, and disease, such as the deadly avian flu, have been hurting crops and killing egg-laying hens, squeezing supplies.

    “The environment clearly is still very inflationary with a lot of supply chain challenges across the industry,” Pepsi

    (PEP)
    CEO Ramon Laguarta said on an earnings call Wednesday. The company’s prices increased 17% annually.

    Meanwhile, demand is high. Consumers may be able to pull back on some discretionary items, but they have to eat. Many people are still working from home and consuming more of their meals there than they did before the pandemic.

    This imbalance between supply and demand means companies can pass along higher prices to shoppers without sales plunging.

    But higher prices at the grocery store are forcing customers to make some trade offs.

    Many shoppers are buying fewer products, switching to cheaper private-label brands and pulling back on discretionary items.

    More than one million new households have shopped at discount grocery chain Aldi for the first in the past year, according to the company.

    Walmart

    (WMT)
    said recently that high levels of food inflation are impacting customers’ ability to purchase discretionary goods such as clothing and furniture.

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  • Saudis aren’t weaponizing oil like Americans claim, top official says | CNN Business

    Saudis aren’t weaponizing oil like Americans claim, top official says | CNN Business

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    CNN
     — 

    Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir said his country partnered with Russia to slash oil production in order to stabilize markets and denied that there were political motives behind the decision, which has enraged US leaders and sparked calls to rethink ties with Riyadh.

    “We’re trying to make sure we don’t have erratic swings in prices,” al-Jubeir, one of Saudi Arabia’s top diplomats, told CNN’s Becky Anderson on Wednesday. “Our track record has been clear – we have always worked assiduously to maintain stability in the oil markets.”

    Last week, OPEC+, the oil cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to slash production by 2 million barrels per day, twice as much as analysts had predicted, in the biggest cut since the Covid-19 pandemic.

    The move came despite an intense pressure campaign from the United States, which had warned Arab allies that such a move would increase prices and help Russian President Vladimir Putin continue to fund his war in Ukraine. Experts also fear that continued high oil prices could make it more difficult for the US to tamp down inflation, which has already skyrocketed this year.

    Al-Jubeir, who is also the country’s climate minister, denied that there were any political motives to the decision and said the production cut was made to avoid major swings in the price of oil, which can affect consumers worldwide, and pointed to the fact that the price of oil has gone down since the reduction was announced last week.

    “Saudi Arabia is not siding with Russia,” he told CNN. “Saudi Arabia is taking the side of trying to ensure the stability of the oil markets.”

    “Saudi Arabia does not politicize oil. We don’t see oil as a weapon. We see oil as our commodity. Our objective is to bring stability to the oil market,” al-Jubeir said.

    US President Joe Biden told CNN on Tuesday that Washington must now “rethink” its relationship with Riyadh following the cut. The decision was a particular affront for Biden because of his efforts over the summer to repair ties with Saudi Arabia, despite the kingdom’s woeful human rights record and the role of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Bin Salman denied involvement in the murder, which captured international headlines in part due to the lurid details of the killing.

    “I am in the process, when the House and Senate gets back, they’re going to have to – there’s going to be some consequences for what they’ve done with Russia,” Biden said.

    Watch the full exclusive interview with President Joe Biden

    On Wednesday, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden would examine all aspects of US ties with Saudi Arabia, including arms sales, as administration officials begin quiet discussions with members of Congress and congressional aides about how the US could impose consequences on the kingdom following the oil output cut.

    “There is a range of interests and values that are implicated in our relationship with that country,” Sullivan told reporters. “The President will examine all of that. But one question he’s going to ask is: Is the nature of the relationship serving the interest and values of the United States and what changes would make it better serve the interests and values?”

    Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman al-Saud said in an interview with Saudi TV earlier Wednesday that OPEC+ needed to be proactive as central banks in the West moved to tackle inflation with higher interest rates, a move that could raise prospects of a global recession, which could in turn reduce demand for oil and drive its price down. Cutting production would ensure a smaller supply of oil, keeping its price higher. While that would protect the Saudi economy by ensuring it receives a steady flow of income from oil sales, it would force consumers across the world to pay more for energy and gas, further fueling inflation.

    Saudi officials have insisted that the production cut is being done to protect the country’s economic interests. Because of its heavy dependence on oil revenues, the Saudi economy has a history of falling victim to boom and bust cycles in the oil market, where high prices bring in a flow of cash followed by downturns.

    In the United States, however, the cut could have massive political ramifications ahead of next month’s midterm elections. After reaching highs over the summer, gas prices in the United States had been steadily decreasing, providing Biden and his top aides a potent talking point in the lead-up to the elections.

    But a combination of factors, including rising demand and maintenance at some US refineries, has caused prices to begin ticking back up. The OPEC+ decision is likely to aggravate those factors.

    The decision set off bipartisan fury in Washington when it was first announced last week. Saudi Arabia is now being accused of filling the Kremlin’s coffers with oil revenues just days after President Putin’s regime began carrying out large-scale missile attacks on civilian targets across Ukraine

    “What Saudi Arabia did to help Putin continue to wage his despicable, vicious war against Ukraine will long be remembered by Americans,” tweeted Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, on Friday.

    Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut on Wednesday called for immediate action on his bill that would stop US arm sales to Saudi Arabia.

    “The Saudis actions aid and abet a murderous and brutal criminal invasion by Russia,” Blumenthal said.

    When asked about growing calls in Washington to limit ties with Saudi Arabia, al-Jubeir said he hoped that such talk was motivated by domestic politics ahead of the midterms.

    Al-Jubeir said the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia remains “robust.”

    “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the US have had a very strong relationship for eight decades … and we look forward to this relationship continuing for the next eight decades,” he added.

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  • The Fed only cares about inflation. That’s bad news for you | CNN Business

    The Fed only cares about inflation. That’s bad news for you | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN Business
     — 

    Jerome Powell and other members of the Federal Reserve are obsessed with choking off inflation once and for all, even if the Fed’s series of aggressive rate hikes slow the economy to a crawl. That could be bad news for consumers, investors and Corporate America.

    What’s more, many market experts and economists note that the rate of inflation, while still uncomfortably high, is falling and should continue to decline – but there is a noted lag effect. Fed vice chair Lael Brainard admitted as much in a speech Monday, saying that “policy actions to date will have their full effect on activity in coming quarters.”

    Still, the Fed isn’t done raising rates. Investors are pricing in the strong probability of a fourth consecutive three-quarters of a percentage point hike at the Fed’s next meeting on November 2. And the chances of a fifth straight hike of that magnitude at the Fed’s December 14 meeting are also on the rise.

    It seems that Powell wants to atone for his mistake of repeatedly calling inflation “transitory” for much of last year. So the Fed is going to keep raising rates to prove that it is taking inflation seriously, even if that leads to a bigger pullback in stocks…and tipping the economy into a recession.

    Needless to say, that’s a problem. Especially since the Fed has two mandates: price stability and maximum employment. That means the jobs market might get hit due to the Fed’s laser-like focus on inflation.

    “My concern is that the Fed is tightening so quickly and so significantly without knowing what it means for the economy,” said Brian Levitt, global market strategist with Invesco.

    Keep in mind that the Fed’s series of rate hikes are unprecedented in the “modern” era of central banking, i.e. after Alan Greenspan became Fed chair in 1987 and the Fed became far more transparent.

    The Fed was far more opaque before Greenspan, and the market didn’t pick apart every speech, policy move and economic forecast the way Wall Street does now. Inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s was also a much different animal, due largely to an oil price shock that lasted years because of a supply shortage.

    The current inflation crisis stems from more temporary (we won’t say transitory) supply chain issues tied to the pandemic as well as the rapid reopening of the global economy following a brief recession.

    But the economy is now showing cracks. Long-term bond yields have surged, and mortgage rates have popped, cooling off the housing market. The stock market has deflated as well, wringing even more excess from the economy.

    “We’re more cautious because the Fed is tightening into a weakening economy,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer and chief market strategist with Truist Advisory Services. “These supersized hikes are the most aggressive in decades. But the Fed has scar tissue from inflation.”

    As painful this current bout of inflation is for Americans, it’s nothing compared to what people lived through in the early 1980s before then Fed chair Paul Volcker squashed inflation with a series of massive rate hikes.

    Unless pricing pressures pick up again, it appears the year-over-year increase for the consumer price index (CPI) peaked at 9% in June. That’s a big move from about 2.3% in February 2020 just before the pandemic shutdown. But 9% is still a far cry from the CPI high during the Volcker years of 14.6% in early 1980.

    And with consumer and wholesale prices already edging lower, some experts worry that the continued uber-hawkish stance by the Fed will do more harm than good for the economy.

    “The speed at which the Fed is increasing rates will certainly have some unintended consequences,” said Michael Weisz, president of Yieldstreet, an investment firm that specializes in so-called alternative assets such as real estate, private equity, venture capital and art.

    Weisz said the surge in interest rates could lead to a “consumer credit crunch being more pronounced,” in which loans beyond mortgages might become more expensive and harder to get.

    Rate hikes raise the costs for companies to pay down their debt, increasing the possibility of corporate bankruptcies and defaults on commercial loans. It may even potentially lead to stagflation…the double whopper of stagnant growth and continued inflation. In other words, prices may remain high and the job market will probably be worse.

    “The Fed runs a real risk of over-tightening, as the impacts of the restrictive policy may not flow through inflation and unemployment data until it’s too late,” Weisz added.

    As long as inflation remains the bigger issue for the economy, the Fed is going to focus more on getting prices under control. After all, the unemployment rate is at 3.5%, a half-century low.

    “The Fed has made it clear their number one priority right now is price stability,” said Dustin Thackeray, chief investment officer of Crewe Advisors. “Until the Fed sees sustained evidence their monetary policy is having a material impact on…the job market, they will maintain their persistent efforts in reining in inflationary pressures.”

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  • Asian stocks moving lower in wake of latest volatile session on Wall Street

    Asian stocks moving lower in wake of latest volatile session on Wall Street

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    TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly lower on Wednesday following another volatile day on Wall Street, as traders braced for updates on inflation and corporate earnings.

    Benchmarks fell in Tokyo
    NIY00,
    +0.09%
    ,
    Shanghai
    SHCOMP,
    -1.12%

    and Hong Kong
    HSI00,
    -2.90%

    but rose in Sydney.

    South Korea’s Kospi
    180721,
    +0.34%

    lost 0.1% to 2,189.86 after the Bank of Korea raised its key rate by 0.5 percentage point, amid the backdrop of Fed rate hikes in the U.S. and growing inflation risks from the weak won and rebounding global oil prices.

    In currency trading the Japanese yen declined to a 24-year low against the U.S. dollar
    JPYUSD,
    -0.24

    at 146 yen-levels, raising expectations of another intervention by Tokyo to prop up the yen. By midday the dollar
    USDJPY,
    +0.24%

    was at 146.17 yen, up from 145.80 late Tuesday. The euro
    EURUSD,
    +0.12%

    cost 96.96 cents, inching down from 97.07 yen.

    The weaker yen raises costs for both consumers and businesses who rely on imports of food, fuel and other needs, but the bigger purchasing power for foreign currencies is expected to boost tourism. Japan reopened fully to individual tourist travel this week after being closed for more than two years because of the pandemic.

    Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 0.2% to 26,348.73 in morning trading. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200
    ASX10000,
    -1.54%

    gained nearly 0.2% to 6,656.00. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 2% to 16,491.39, while the Shanghai Composite shed 1.2% to 2,943.24.

    On Tuesday, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.65%

    fell 0.7%, marking its fifth straight loss, closing at 3,588.84. The Nasdaq
    COMP,
    -1.10%

    dropped 1.1% to 10,426.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.12%

    added 0.1% to 29,239.19, while the Russell 2000 index
    RUT,
    +0.06%

    rose 1 point, or about 0.1%, to 1,692.92.

    Recession fears have been weighing heavily on markets as stubbornly hot inflation burns businesses and consumers. Economic growth has been slowing as consumers temper spending and the Federal Reserve and other central banks raise interest rates.

    The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 to 2.7%, down from the 2.9% it had estimated in July. The cut comes as Europe faces a particularly high risk of a recession with energy costs soaring amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    See: Global economy most vulnerable since COVID crisis, with housing market at potential ‘tipping point,’ IMF warns

    Wall Street is closely watching the Federal Reserve as it continues to aggressively raise its benchmark interest rate to make borrowing more expensive and slow economic growth. The goal is to cool inflation, but the strategy carries the risk of slowing the economy too much and pushing it into a recession.

    “The market desperately wants a reason for the Fed to be able to stop tightening and the data recently hasn’t given them that opening with respect to inflation,” said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at All Star Charts.

    Computer-chip manufacturers continued slipping in the wake of the U.S. government’s decision to tighten export controls on semiconductors and chip manufacturing equipment to China. Qualcomm
    QCOM,
    -3.99%

    fell 4%.

    See: Intel reportedly plans to lay off thousands of workers, with details potentially emerging alongside quarterly earnings

    Uber
    UBER,
    -10.42%

    fell 10.4% and Lyft
    LYFT,
    -12.02%

    slumped 12% following a proposal by the U.S. government that could give contract workers at ride-hailing and other gig economy companies full status as employees.

    The Fed will release minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday, possibly giving Wall Street more insight into its views on inflation and next steps.

    Investors still expect the Fed to raise its overnight rate by three-quarters of a percentage point next month, the fourth such increase. That’s triple the usual amount, and would bring the rate up to a range of 3.75% to 4%. It started the year at virtually zero.

    Rex Nutting: Leading indicators show inflation is slowing, but Fed policy makers are too busy looking in rearview mirror to notice

    The government will also release its report on wholesale prices Wednesday, providing an update on how inflation is hitting businesses. The closely watched report on consumer prices will be released on Thursday, and a report on retail sales is due Friday.

    “Everyone is still hoping that every inflation report will be the one that shows that pressure is alleviating,” Delwiche said.

    Wall Street is also gearing up for the start of the latest corporate earnings reporting season, which could provide a clearer picture of inflation’s impact.

    Among the companies reporting quarterly results this week: PepsiCo
    PEP,
    +0.48%
    ,
    Delta Air Lines
    DAL,
    -1.97%

    and Domino’s Pizza
    DPZ,
    -1.99%
    .
    Banks including Citigroup
    C,
    -2.76%

    and JPMorgan Chase
    JPM,
    -2.89%

    will also report results.

    In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude
    CL00,
    -0.75%

    lost 82 cents to $88.53 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. crude-oil prices fell 2% Tuesday. Brent crude
    BRN00,
    -0.56%
    ,
    the international pricing standard, fell 62 cents to $93.67 a barrel.

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  • WSJ News Exclusive | Peloton Co-Founder John Foley Faced Repeated Margin Calls From Goldman Sachs as Stock Slumped

    WSJ News Exclusive | Peloton Co-Founder John Foley Faced Repeated Margin Calls From Goldman Sachs as Stock Slumped

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    John Foley, the co-founder and former chief executive of Peloton Interactive faced repeated margin calls on money he borrowed against his Peloton holdings before he left the fitness company’s board last month, according to people familiar with the situation.

    As Peloton’s shares slumped over the past year, Goldman Sachs Group asked Mr. Foley several times to provide fresh funds or additional collateral for personal loans the bank had extended to him, the people said. The company’s share price has fallen nearly 95% from its $160 peak in December 2020.

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  • Meet the 10 biggest megadonors for the 2022 midterm elections

    Meet the 10 biggest megadonors for the 2022 midterm elections

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    With four weeks until Election Day, congressional candidates are on track to break midterm fundraising records, having raised nearly $2.5 billion so far this cycle. That’s already 70% more than what was raised during the 2014 cycle and just $200 million shy of the total raised during the full 2018 cycle.

    This cycle has also seen record-shattering outside spending, topping $1 billion through the beginning of October, according to an OpenSecrets estimate.

    The increase in spending and fundraising is due in large part to the involvement of millionaire and billionaire megadonors who have sought to influence the outcome of an election in which both chambers of Congress are in play.

    “When megadonors pump millions of dollars into super PACs, they get to help call the shots,” said Michael Beckel, research director at Issue One, a nonpartisan political reform organization. “Massive spending from a megadonor can influence what issues are talked about on the campaign trail and in Congress.”

    Super PACs are independent political action committees that can raise unlimited sums of money but are not allowed to coordinate with a candidate or campaign. Due to contribution limits, such as those restricting individuals’ candidate contributions to $2,900 per election per candidate, most megadonor spending goes to super PACs.

    More context: These are the basics of campaign finance in 2020 — in two handy charts

    A MarketWatch analysis of Federal Election Commission data through the end of September shows that these 10 business moguls and philanthropists are the biggest federal-level donors this cycle.

    Read: These 3 races could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate in 2023

    And see: If this seat flips red, Republicans will have ‘probably won a relatively comfortable House majority’

    Top federal-level megadonors this cycle
    Rank

    Contributor

    Total Contributions

    For Republicans

    For Democrats

    Nonpartisan/Bipartisan

    1

    George Soros

    $128,782,000

    $0

    $128,782,000

    $0

    2

    Ken Griffin

    $50,955,800

    $50,955,800

    $0

    $0

    3

    Richard Uihlein

    $49,117,000

    $49,117,000

    $0

    $0

    4

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    $39,931,000

    $201,000

    $37,725,000

    $2,005,000

    5

    Jeff Yass

    $32,754,000

    $32,754,000

    $0

    $0

    6

    Peter Thiel

    $30,189,000

    $30,189,000

    $0

    $0

    7

    Fred Eychaner

    $22,343,000

    $0

    $22,343,000

    $0

    8

    Stephen Schwarzman

    $21,870,000

    $21,865,000

    $0

    $5,000

    9

    Larry Ellison

    $21,003,000

    $21,003,000

    $0

    $0

    10

    Ryan Salame

    $18,932,000

    $17,432,000

    $0

    $1,500,000

    Totals:

    $415,877,000

    $223,517,000

    $188,850,000

    $3,510,000

    Source: MarketWatch analysis of FEC data as of Sept. 30, 2022
    Note: Partisan breakdown includes non-party affiliated PACs with over 95% of their spending benefitting one party, data has been rounded to the nearest thousand

    Big spending by itself doesn’t automatically mean winning. There have been notable instances of the financially strongest candidates losing (such as crypto-backed House candidate Carrick Flynn earlier this year and billionaire Michael Bloomberg’s self-financed presidential bid) — but money can certainly help put a candidate on the right track.

    “Money alone doesn’t guarantee electoral success, but every candidate prefers to be the one with more money to spend,” Beckel said. He added: “Outside spending on behalf of a candidate isn’t a silver bullet that’s going to guarantee electoral success. But it goes a long way to boosting somebody’s name recognition, and to presenting them as a viable candidate — somebody who has the resources to run a competitive campaign.”

    Information about the spending by the top 10 donors this cycle has been compiled from MarketWatch’s analysis of FEC data and filings, super PAC websites and previously reported comments. Read on to find out who are the top 10 biggest donors this cycle.

    10. Ryan Salame — $19 million

    Ryan Salame, the co-CEO of FTX Digital Markets, a subsidiary of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, founded a hybrid PAC earlier this year called American Dream Federal Action. The vast majority ($15 million) of the $19 million Salame has spent this cycle has gone into bankrolling the PAC, which has spent $2.4 million in independent expenditures supporting Illinois Republican Rep. Rodney Davis, $2 million supporting Republican Senate candidate Katie Britt from Alabama, and $1.2 million each supporting Arkansas GOP Sen. John Boozman and Brad Finstad, a GOP congressional candidate in Minnesota.

    On its website, the PAC describes itself as “organization dedicated to electing forward-looking candidates — those who want to protect America’s long term economic and national security by advancing smart policy decisions now.” A representative for Salame didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    9. Lawrence Ellison — $21 million

    The co-founder of Oracle
    ORCL,
    +0.26%

    has similarly bankrolled a PAC this election cycle — giving a total $20 million to Opportunity Matters Fund Inc. The super PAC has largely held onto its funds so far, recent FEC records show, having $17 million cash on hand as of the end of August. Of the independent expenditures it has made this cycle, it spent the most on Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker ($1.3 million), Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson ($1.3 million) and North Carolina Senate candidate and current Republican Rep. Ted Budd ($1.1 million). A representative for Ellison didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    8. Stephen Schwarzman — $22 million

    Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman, the CEO of private-equity giant Blackstone
    BX,
    -2.41%
    ,
    is the eighth biggest donor at the federal level this cycle. In March, Schwarzman gave $10 million to both the Senate Leadership Fund and Congressional Leadership Fund, super PACs aimed at obtaining a Republican majority in the Senate and House, respectively. A representative for Schwarzman didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    7. Fred Eychaner — $22 million

    Fred Eychaner has also contributed $22 million so far this cycle, but unlike most of the spending on this list, his has been directed toward Democratic causes. The chairman of Chicago-based Newsweb Corporation has given $9 million to the House Majority PAC and $8 million to the Senate Majority PAC, as well as just under $1.5 million to the Democratic National Committee and several hundred thousands to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. A representative for Eychaner didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    6. Peter Thiel — $30 million

    Venture capitalist Peter Thiel was heavily involved in backing Ohio Republican J.D. Vance’s primary bid, giving $15 million in the spring to the Vance-aligned Protect Ohio Values PAC.

    The massive primary investment was “historic” and record-setting, according to Beckel, who added that Thiel’s involvement in the Ohio Senate primary could mark “a new chapter of how mega donors are choosing to play in politics.”

    “I think it’s become clear for a lot of megadonors that there are high stakes to a lot of primaries, and by spending in the primary, where there is typically lower turnout than in say, a statewide general election, they can get a lot of bang for their buck by investing in a primary election,” Beckel added.

    Thiel has indicated that he doesn’t intend to put any more money toward Vance’s bid as he reportedly believes the Ohio candidate is on track to win, and instead will focus his funding on Arizona Republican Blake Masters’ bid to oust Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in the final weeks leading up to the midterm election.

    Thiel, known for his roles in PayPal
    PYPL,
    -1.69%
    ,
    Palantir
    PLTR,
    -0.25%

    and Facebook
    META,
    -3.92%
    ,
    has also given a total $15 million to the Masters-aligned PAC, Saving Arizona, with his most recent contribution in July. Both Vance and Masters are venture capitalists, but Masters has worked with Thiel. He served as chief operating officer of Thiel Capital and president of the Thiel Foundation, and he co-authored a book on startups with Thiel in 2014. A representative for Thiel didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    5. Jeff Yass — $33 million

    Options trader Jeff Yass, who founded trading firm Susquehanna International Group, has contributed about $33 million on a federal level this cycle. Yass has given $15 million to the School Freedom Fund, or the equivalent of 97% of the PAC’s total fundraising. The group focuses on the issue of school choice, and its website states that some bureaucrats “hindered the development and education of our youth through school closures, mask mandates, critical race theory, and more.”

    Aside from the School Freedom Fund, Yass’ other biggest contributions are to the conservative Club for Action ($6.5 million), Kentucky Freedom ($5 million), Protect Freedom ($2 million) and Crypto Freedom ($1.9 million). A representative for Yass didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    4. Sam Bankman-Fried — $40 million

    Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and CEO of FTX, is the main funder behind Protect Our Future PAC, giving it $27 million of the $28 million it raised this cycle. 

    The organization says on its website that it focuses on promoting Democratic candidates championing pandemic preparedness and prevention “so this is the last time in our lifetime, and our children’s lifetimes, that we will face the devastation that has gripped communities across the U.S. since 2020.”

    The group spent more than $10 million supporting Democrat Carrick Flynn’s House bid in Oregon. Flynn lost his primary in May by 18 points despite his massive outside spending advantage. In addition to Flynn, the group has made over $1 million in independent expenditures each supporting Democratic congressional candidates Lucy McBath, a current representative from Georgia; Jasmine Crockett of Texas, Adam Hollier of Michigan, Valerie Foushee of North Carolina and Shontel Brown, a current representative from Ohio.

    Most of the other $10 million Bankman-Fried spent this cycle has gone to the House Majority PAC ($6 million) and the crypto PAC GMI ($2 million).

    While the vast majority of his spending has supported Democratic candidates and causes, Bankman-Fried does not classify himself as an exclusively Democratic donor — for instance he gave $105,000 to the Alabama Conservatives Fund in June and $45,000 to the NRCC in July. 

    He told Politico in August that he is “legitimately worried about doing things that will make people view me as partisan when it’s not how I feel … because I think it both misses what I’m trying to do and makes it harder for me to act constructively.” A representative for the FTX boss didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    3. Richard Uihlein — $49 million

    Richard Uihlein is the founder of the shipping and business supply company Uline, and is a longtime conservative donor. This cycle has seen nearly $50 million in political spending by him, with just over half of it going to Club for Growth Action. Uihlein has also given about $14 million to Restoration PAC, an organization that says it is “dedicated to strengthening the foundations that made America the greatest nation in the world: God, family, education, and community.”

    Uihlein’s next largest contributions are to the conservative Team PAC ($2.5 million) and the Arkansas Patriots Fund ($2.2 million), which earlier this year made ad buys favoring Republican Sen. John Boozman’s primary opponent. A representative for Uihlein didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    2. Ken Griffin — $51 million

    With $51 million in federal-level political spending, Ken Griffin, CEO of hedge fund Citadel, is the second most prolific donor this cycle.

    The biggest beneficiaries are the Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund with $18.5 million in contributions, the Senate Leadership Fund with $10 million and Honor Pennsylvania, a super PAC that backed Republican Dave McCormick’s Senate bid. McCormick lost in the primary to Mehmet Oz by less than a thousand votes. 

    While Griffin spent about $64 million during the last cycle, his $51 million figure this year marks by far the most he has spent during a midterm cycle. During the 2018 cycle, his contributions totaled less than $8 million.

    A spokesperson for Griffin told MarketWatch that Griffin “supports leaders who are committed to protecting the American Dream and pursuing policies that will create a better future for the United States.”

    “The right policies will focus on creating rewarding jobs, prioritizing public safety, and investing in a strong national defense,” his spokesperson said. “Preserving the American Dream will require that every child is well educated, can access great healthcare, and has the opportunity to succeed.”

    1. George Soros — $129 million

    Not one donor comes close to matching the sum that billionaire philanthropist George Soros has contributed this cycle: $129 million. However, much of that money hasn’t actually been put to work this cycle.

    The majority of those on this list have focused their funding on Republican causes, but Soros’ money has gone to Democratic groups — specifically Democracy PAC II, whose $125 million in contributions comprises 99% of its fundraising. The super PAC spent more than $80 million on Democratic groups and candidates during the 2020 election.

    A representative for Soros pointed MarketWatch to a Politico article from January, in which Soros said the $125 million is aimed at supporting pro-democracy “causes and candidates, regardless of political party” who are invested in “strengthening the infrastructure of American democracy: voting rights and civic participation, civil rights and liberties, and the rule of law” and called his contribution a “long-term investment” that will  support political work beyond this year.

    So far this cycle, Democracy PAC has spent very little and holds $113 million in available cash. Contributions the PAC has made this cycle include $5 million to the Senate Majority PAC, $2.5 million to One Georgia and $1 million to both Care in Action and House Majority PAC.

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  • The stock market is in trouble. That’s because the the bond market is ‘very close to a crash.’

    The stock market is in trouble. That’s because the the bond market is ‘very close to a crash.’

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    Don’t assume the worst is over, says investor Larry McDonald.

    There’s talk of a policy pivot by the Federal Reserve as interest rates rise quickly and stocks keep falling. Both may continue.

    McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense,” which described the 2008 failure of Lehman Brothers, expects more turmoil in the bond market, in part, because “there is $50 trillion more in world debt today than there was in 2018.” And that will hurt equities.

    The bond market dwarfs the stock market — both have fallen this year, although the rise in interest rates has been worse for bond investors because of the inverse relationship between rates (yields) and bond prices.

    About 600 institutional investors from 23 countries participate in chats on the Bear Traps site. During an interview, McDonald said the consensus among these money managers is “things are breaking,” and that the Federal Reserve will have to make a policy change fairly soon.

    Pointing to the bond-market turmoil in the U.K., McDonald said government bonds that mature in 2061 were trading at 97 cents to the dollar in December, 58 cents in August and as low as 24 cents over recent weeks.

    When asked if institutional investors could simply hold on to those bonds to avoid booking losses, he said that because of margin calls on derivative contracts, some institutional investors were forced to sell and take massive losses.

    Read: British bond market turmoil is sign of sickness growing in markets

    And investors haven’t yet seen the financial statements reflecting those losses — they happened too recently. Write-downs of bond valuations and the booking of losses on some of those will hurt bottom-line results for banks and other institutional money managers.

    Interest rates aren’t high, historically

    Now, in case you think interest rates have already gone through the roof, check out this chart, showing yields for 10-year U.S. Treasury notes
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.898%

    over the past 30 years:

    The yield on 10-year Treasury notes has risen considerably as the Federal Reserve has tightened during 2022, but it is at an average level if you look back 30 years.


    FactSet

    The 10-year yield is right in line with its 30-year average. Now look at the movement of forward price-to-earnings ratios for S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.03%

    since March 31, 2000, which is as far back as FactSet can go for this metric:


    FactSet

    The index’s weighted forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.4 is way down from its level two years ago. However, it is not very low when compared to the average of 16.3 since March 2000 or to the 2008 crisis-bottom valuation of 8.8.

    Then again, rates don’t have to be high to hurt

    McDonald said that interest rates didn’t need to get anywhere near as high as they were in 1994 or 1995 — as you can see in the first chart — to cause havoc, because “today there is a lot of low-coupon paper in the world.”

    “So when yields go up, there is a lot more destruction” than in previous central-bank tightening cycles, he said.

    It may seem the worst of the damage has been done, but bond yields can still move higher.

    Heading into the next Consumer Price Index report on Oct. 13, strategists at Goldman Sachs warned clients not to expect a change in Federal Reserve policy, which has included three consecutive 0.75% increases in the federal funds rate to its current target range of 3.00% to 3.25%.

    The Federal Open Market Committee has also been pushing long-term interest rates higher through reductions in its portfolio of U.S. Treasury securities. After reducing these holdings by $30 billion a month in June, July and August, the Federal Reserve began reducing them by $60 billion a month in September. And after reducing its holdings of federal agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $17.5 billion a month for three months, the Fed began reducing these holdings by $35 billion a month in September.

    Bond-market analysts at BCA Research led by Ryan Swift wrote in a client note on Oct. 11 that they continued to expect the Fed not to pause its tightening cycle until the first or second quarter of 2023. They also expect the default rate on high-yield (or junk) bonds to increase to 5% from the current rate of 1.5%. The next FOMC meeting will be held Nov. 1-2, with a policy announcement on Nov. 2.

    McDonald said that if the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate by another 100 basis points and continues its balance-sheet reductions at current levels, “they will crash the market.”

    A pivot may not prevent pain

    McDonald expects the Federal Reserve to become concerned enough about the market’s reaction to its monetary tightening to “back away over the next three weeks,” announce a smaller federal funds rate increase of 0.50% in November “and then stop.”

    He also said that there will be less pressure on the Fed following the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 8.

    Don’t miss: Dividend yields on preferred stocks have soared. This is how to pick the best ones for your portfolio.

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  • As bond yields spike, Bank of England widens U.K. market intervention in second effort this week to calm volatile markets

    As bond yields spike, Bank of England widens U.K. market intervention in second effort this week to calm volatile markets

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    The Bank of England said Tuesday that it will expand its daily U.K. bond purchase operations to include index-linked gilts, the second move this week aimed at trying to calm market volatility.

    “These additional operations will act as a further backstop to restore orderly market conditions by temporarily absorbing selling of index-linked gilts in excess of market intermediation capacity,” the BoE said in a statement on Tuesday, adding that it has also consulted with the Debt Management Office.

    The inclusion of those index-linked bonds will run from Oct. 11 to 14, alongside its existing daily conventional gilt purchase auctions, the BoE said.

    But it remained to be seen if a second-day move by the central bank to calm markets will be effective.

    Investors are anxiously looking ahead to Friday, when the central bank’s emergency bond-buying program announced last month are scheduled to end. The BoE announced additional measures on Monday to smooth that path, but the yield on the 30-year gilt 
    TMBMKGB-30Y,
    4.667%

    jumped 29 basis points to 4.68% on Monday.

    While that’s still below the 5.17% peak, it indicates concerns about the imminent end to the central bank’s program were causing fear in the market. The yield on the 10-year gilt 
    TMBMKGB-10Y,
    4.431%
    ,
     which the central bank has not been buying, rose 24 basis points to 4.47%

    On Monday, the BoE said it would boost the size of its daily gilt purchases and implement extra measures “to support an orderly end” to its emergency bond-buying plans.

    It now will buy up to £10 billion ($11 billion) in bonds, up from a previous auction limit of £5 billion ($5.5 billion), though sticking with its pricing policy that has seen the central bank refuse many of the bonds put up for auction.

    The BoE also said Monday that it plans to to launch a temporary expanded collateral repo operation for liability-driven investment funds through liquidity insurance operations, which will run beyond the end of this week.

    LDI funds are a popular product sold by asset managers like BlackRock
    BLK,
    -0.88%
    ,
    Legal & General
    LGEN,
    -2.99%

    and Schroders
    SDR,
    +0.05%

    to pension funds, using derivatives to help them match assets and liabilities so there is no risk of shortfall in money to pay pensioners.

    But those measures failed to stop bond yields from surging, amid market fears that the pension fund market is not yet ready for that temporary debt purchase program to end.

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  • The econ Nobel offers a timely warning about central banks’ power | CNN Business

    The econ Nobel offers a timely warning about central banks’ power | CNN Business

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    This story is part of CNN Business’ Nightcap newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free, here.


    New York
    CNN Business
     — 

    The Nobel in economics is sort of the step-cousin of the Nobel family.

    It came about nearly 70 years after its literature and sciences counterparts, in 1969, and is technically called the “Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences.” It is awarded by the Swedish central bank, in honor of the namesake renaissance man Alfred Nobel who established the prizes.

    Some scholars really dislike the economics prize, including one of Nobel’s own descendants, who dismissed it as a “PR coup by economists.”

    But hey, it still comes with a cash prize. And it’s also pretty useful in reminding the world that economics as an academic field is, frankly, a barely understood hodge-podge of studies that is constantly evolving and so variable it’s almost useless outside of academia. (And I mean that with the utmost respect to economists, who, not unlike journalists, knew what they were doing when they chose their life of suffering.)

    Here’s the thing: Ben Bernanke, the former Federal Reserve chairman who guided the US economy through the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent recession, was awarded the Nobel in economics along with two other economists, Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig. (Congrats to all the winners, with apologies to Doug and Phil, who will forever be referred to in headlines about the Nobel as “and two other economists.”)

    Bernanke, who previously taught at Princeton and earned his Ph.D from MIT, received the award for his research on the Great Depression. In short, his work demonstrates that banks’ failures are often a cause, not merely a consequence, of financial crises.

    That was groundbreaking when he published it in 1983. Today, it’s conventional wisdom.

    WHY IT MATTERS

    The timing is everything here. The Nobel committee has been known to play politics (see: that time Barack Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize after being in office for just eight months). And right now, it is using its spotlight to call attention to the high-stakes gamble playing out at central banks around the world, most notably the Fed.

    The rapid run-up in interest rates, led by the US central bank, is causing markets around the world to go haywire. And it’s especially bad news for emerging economies.

    Monetary tightening — especially when it is aggressive and synchronized across major economies — could inflict worse damage globally than the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, a United Nations agency warned earlier this month. It called the Fed’s policy “imprudent gamble” with the lives of those less fortunate.

    LESSONS FROM HISTORY

    On Monday, Diamond, one of the three newly minted Nobel laureates, acknowledged that the rate moves around the world were causing market instability.

    But he believes the system is more resilient than it used to be because of hard lessons learned from the 2008 crash, my colleague Julia Horowitz reports.

    “Recent memories of that crisis and improvements in regulatory policies around the world have left the system much, much less vulnerable,” Diamond said.

    Let’s hope he’s right.

    Oh hey, speaking of the Fed inflicting pain: We’re about to see big job losses, according to Bank of America.

    Under the rate hikes imposed by Jay Powell & Co, the US economy could see job growth cut in half during the fourth quarter of this year. Early next year, the bank expects to see losses of about 175,000 jobs a month.

    The litigation between Elon Musk and Twitter is officially on hold. The two sides now have until October 28 to work out a deal or once again gear up for a courtroom battle.

    The big question now is all about the money.

    Here’s the deal: Not even the world’s richest person has this kind of cash just lying around. Musk’s wealth is tied up in Tesla stock, which he can’t easily offload for a whole bunch of reasons. He needs to borrow the money, which means he’s got to get banks to pony up.

    By most accounts, he’ll be able to make it happen. But the Twitter deal is a harder pitch to make now than it was back in April, when Musk said he’d lined up more than $46 billion in financing, including two debt commitment letters from Morgan Stanley and other unnamed financial institutions, my colleague Clare Duffy writes.

    Musk has spent the past several months trashing Twitter as he sought to renege on his offer. Meanwhile, tech stocks have been hammered, ad revenues are declining, and the global economy has inched closer to a recession, sapping investor appetite for risk.

    Musk’s legal team said last week the banks that had committed debt financing previously were “working cooperatively to fund the close.”

    Twitter is, understandably, skeptical, given the many curve balls Musk has thrown at them since he got involved with the company earlier this year. The company raised concerns last week that a representative for one of the banks testified that Musk had not yet sent a borrowing notice and “has not otherwise communicated to them that he intends to close the transaction, let alone on any particular timeline.”

    What’s Musk’s endgame?

    No one knows, perhaps least of all Musk. But many legal experts following the case say Musk understood he’d likely lose at trial and then be forced to buy Twitter anyway. He’d rather buy the entire company than be deposed by Twitter’s lawyers and do further damage to Twitter in a trial.

    And the banks may not be able to walk away even if they want to.

    “The only way they could get out of it is to claim a material adverse effect and that Twitter has changed so much since they agreed to the deal that they no longer want to finance the deal,” said George Geis, professor of strategy at the UCLA Anderson School of Management.

    Even if the banks succeeded there, Musk may not be off the hook. The judge in the case could rule that Musk was at fault for the financing falling through — not a far-fetched notion after all the trash-talking — and order him to sue Morgan Stanley to provide the funds or close the deal without it.

    Bottom line, it seems like Musk will end up owning Twitter one way or another. And given his only vague musings about what he’d actually do with it, there are a whole host of unknowns lurking in Twitter’s future.

    Enjoying Nightcap? Sign up and you’ll get all of this, plus some other funny stuff we liked on the internet, in your inbox every night. (OK, most nights — we believe in a four-day work week around here.)

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  • Nasdaq closes at 2-year low after stocks fail to shake off Fed rate-hike gloom

    Nasdaq closes at 2-year low after stocks fail to shake off Fed rate-hike gloom

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    AP

    U.S. stocks finished with losses on Monday, sending the Nasdaq Composite to its lowest close in more than two years, after investors failed to shake off worries about further Federal Reserve rate hikes and JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon warned of a potential 20% decline in the S&P 500.

    How stocks traded
    • The Dow
      DJIA,
      -0.32%

      closed down by 93.91 points, or 0.3% at 29,202.88.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -0.75%

      finished down by 27.27 points, or 0.8%, at 3,612.39.

    • The Nasdaq Composite gave up 110.30 points, or 1%, to end at 10,542.10 — the lowest close since July 28, 2020.

    Monday’s declines exacerbated losses which occurred at the end of last week. On Friday, the Dow fell 630 points, or 2.1%, the S&P 500 declined 2.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.8%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 31.9% for the year to date through Friday.

    What drove markets

    Major indexes finished lower for a fourth consecutive session on Monday as concerns about additional rate hikes by the Fed continued to damp sentiment. Dow industrials, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all fell to session lows after a CNBC interview with Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan
    JPM,
    -0.93%
    ,
    who said the S&P 500 could fall by “another easy 20%” from current levels.

    Read: Here are the 5 times traders and stock-market investors got fooled by Fed ‘pivot’ hopes in past year

    Soft data a week ago had raised hopes that the Fed would soon pause its monetary tightening cycle in its battle to suppress multidecade high inflation, and the market subsequently rebounded off its near two-year lows. But a strong jobs report on Friday crushed that Fed “pivot” narrative and stocks plunged again.

    On Monday, the CBOE Vix index
    VIX,
    +3.48%
    ,
    a gauge of expected S&P 500 volatility, sat at 32.15, well above its long-term average of 20.

    “The low interest-rate environment forced investors to chase yield and bid up the asset prices too high. Eventually the market is fair and asset values have to achieve some sense of common ground or base level valuation. So it was inevitable that this valuation correction would happen,” said Siddharth Singhai, chief investment officer for New York-based hedge fund IronHold Capital.

    “Panic will swing the market towards excessive pessimism and then the valuations will be too cheap. That hasn’t happened yet. Upcoming rate hikes will most likely be a catalyst for panic, however,” he wrote in an email to MarketWatch on Monday.

    Coming into Monday’s session, trading had been expected to be somewhat thinned by the Columbus Day and Indigenous People’s Day holiday, which closed the Treasury market.

    Now, traders are looking toward more data later in the week for further guidance on Fed thinking and equity valuations. The U.S. producer price numbers will be released on Wednesday and the consumer prices report on Thursday, the last of their kind before the Fed’s policy decision on Nov. 2.

    Then on Friday, third-quarter corporate earnings season really kicks into gear when big banks like JPMorgan
    JPM,
    -0.93%

    and Citigroup
    C,
    -1.40%

    present their numbers.

    Read: JPMorgan, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo kick off bank earnings season in choppy waters and S&P 500 would be in an ‘earnings recession’ if not for this one booming sector — but that may not last long

    Investors were also keeping an eye on the strong U.S. dollar, which is considered a drag on the earnings of U.S. multinationals. The dollar index
    DXY,
    +0.25%

    rose 0.3% to 113.12 as the euro intermittently broke below $0.97 after Russia sent missiles into cities across Ukraine.

    See: A rampaging U.S. dollar is wreaking havoc in financial markets. Here’s why it’s so hard to stop it.

    “We expect a lot more volatility in markets for the remainder of the year as the inevitability of higher rates sinks in and the economic consequences become more pronounced,” said Arthur Laffer Jr., president of Nashville-based Laffer Tengler Investments. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell “will not be a very popular person but it seems his legacy is focused on fighting any resurgence of 1970s inflation in the U.S. at all costs.”

    Companies in focus
    • Rivian Automotive Inc.
      RIVN,
      -7.28%

      intends to recall about 13,000 vehicles due to a possible safety issue that has so far been found to have affected several units, the company said Friday night. Shares finished down by 7.3%.

    • Tesla Inc.
      TSLA,
      -0.05%

      reported record monthly sales of China-made electric vehicles in September, as it continues to ramp production in the world’s number-two economy. The electric-vehicle maker delivered 83,135 EVs from its Shanghai plant in September, an 8% rise from August, according to a report by the China Passenger Car Association. Tesla shares nonetheless finished down by less than 0.1%.

    — Jamie Chisholm contributed to this article.

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  • White-collar workers are feeling the brunt of the Fed’s rate hikes. Here’s why | CNN Business

    White-collar workers are feeling the brunt of the Fed’s rate hikes. Here’s why | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN Business
     — 

    September’s hotly anticipated jobs data ended up cooling markets on Friday. Stocks fell sharply as investors evaluated the report, which showed more jobs than expected were added to the US economy and indicated that more pain-inflicting interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve lie ahead.

    But a breakdown of the numbers shows that the Fed’s plans to weaken the labor market to fight persistent inflation may already be working, just not for everybody.

    White-collar office workers appear to be feeling the brunt of the Fed’s actions: The financial and business sector saw a large decline in employment last month. Legal and advertising services also experienced drops. Service and construction workers, meanwhile, are still thriving.

    What’s happening: The US economy added 263,000 jobs in September, higher than analyst estimates of 250,000. The unemployment rate came in at 3.5%, down from 3.7% in August.

    Leading the gain in jobs was the leisure and hospitality industry, which added 83,000 jobs in September — and employment in food services and drinking places made up 60,000 of those jobs alone. Manufacturing and construction also came in hot, adding 22,000 and 19,000 jobs, respectively.

    The largest non-governmental losses in jobs came from the financial industry, which shed 8,000 between August and September. Large banks hire in cycles, extending offers to recent graduates in the early fall months. That makes this September’s drop particularly significant.

    Business support services — such as telemarketing, accounting and administrative and clerical jobs — are also bleeding jobs. The sector lost 12,000 in September. Meanwhile, legal services lost 5,000 jobs, and advertising services also dropped 5,000 jobs.

    What it means: The Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy appears to be cooling certain parts of the economy, but not others. Finance workers are likely beginning to worry as their industry depends on stock and lending markets which have been particularly hard hit by Fed actions.

    Friday’s numbers indicate that we’re beginning to see that impact in the employment data.

    What remains to be seen is whether the Fed can cool the economy just by loosening employment in white-collar industries or if these losses will trickle down to other industries, hurting lower-income workers.

    Coming up: Earnings season begins in earnest this week with big banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup

    (C)
    , Morgan Stanley

    (MS)
    and BlackRock

    (BLK)
    reporting. Investors will be watching closely for any guidance on hiring and layoff plans.

    Two key inflation indicators, PPI and CPI are also set to be released. Expect markets to react poorly if inflation comes in hot.

    A panel of top US economists just released its economic outlook for the next year, and it’s not great.

    The panel of 45 forecasters, led by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), said they expected slower growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and weakening employment in both 2022 and 2023 than they previously expected.

    Most of the worries come down to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

    “More than three-quarters of respondents believe the odds are 50-50 or less that the economy will achieve a ‘soft landing’,” said NABE Vice President Julia Coronado. “More than half the panelists indicate that the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook is too much monetary tightness.”

    NABE panelists downgraded their median forecast for real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 to a 0.1% increase, compared to a 1.8% increase in the May 2022 survey. The vast majority of respondents placed more than a 25% probability of a recession occurring in 2023, with the most likely start date in the first quarter.

    The latest report comes as a growing number of economists are predicting that recession is imminent. Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNN on Thursday that it’s “more likely than not” the US will enter a recession, calling it a consequence of the “excesses the economy has been through.”

    Friday’s jobs report showed that the share of workers telecommuting or working from home because of the pandemic ticked lower — falling to just 5.2% in September from 6.5% in August.

    Fully remote work in the United States, which many predicted would remain the norm long after the pandemic, appears to be edging away, especially as the job market loosens for white collar workers and employees have less leverage.

    Last week, a KPMG survey of US-based CEOs found that two-thirds believed in-office work would be the norm within the next three years.

    Still, it may not be enough to help an ailing commercial real estate market, where the outlook is dire. New York City office properties declined by nearly 45% in value in 2020 and are forecast to remain 39% below their pre-pandemic levels long-term as hybrid policies continue, according to a recent study from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

    Looking forward: The Bureau of Labor Statistics has noted that while hybrid work may still be popular, Covid-19 is no longer fueling work from home trends. The October report will rephrase its telework questions to remove references to the pandemic.

    Since May 2020, each jobs report has asked: “At any time in the last four weeks, did you telework or work at home for pay because of the Coronavirus pandemic?

    In May 2020, 35.4% answered yes.

    Starting next month, the question will be revised. “At any time in the last week did you telework or work at home for pay?” it will ask, limiting the timeline and eliminating any reference to the pandemic.

    The US bond market is closed for Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day.

    Coming later this week:

    ▸ Third quarter earnings season begins. Expect reports from big banks like JPMorgan Chase

    (JPM)
    , Wells Fargo

    (WFC)
    , Citigroup

    (C)
    , Morgan Stanley

    (MS)
    , PNC

    (PNC)
    and US Bancorp

    (USB)
    and consumer staples like Pepsi

    (PEP)
    , Walgreen

    (WBA)
    s and Domino’s

    (DMPZF)

    ▸ CPI and PPI, two closely watched measures of inflation in the US are also due to be released. 

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