For the first time since 2021, new installments in the Call of Duty and Battlefield franchises are releasing in the same year, and this has prompted the inevitable comparisons between the two long-running multiplayer first-person shooter franchises to resurface.
Early impressions of Battlefield 6 from its open beta suggest that Electronic Arts and Battlefield Studios have a hit on their hands, but Battlefield 6 is unlikely to dethrone Call of Duty this year, even if the sentiment around Black Ops 7 is not tracking so highly. While EA would like to take some market share from Call of Duty, and it’s possible that happens, Call of Duty’s reign as the No. 1 paid FPS franchise will likely continue.
“While Battlefield 6 has the potential to perform better than any Battlefield game ever has– financially and critically–it almost certainly won’t outsell Call of Duty,” said Rhys Elliott of Alinea Analytics.
Elliott said Call of Duty has a core audience that buys in every year, and that isn’t expected to change in 2025 “just because Battlefield 6 is rad and tracking incredibly well.”
EA’s Battlefield boss Vince Zampella, a former Call of Duty higher-up, and others like Battlefield GM Byron Beede (also a former CoD boss), have said games like Battlefield 3 and Battlefield 4 are the inspiration for Battlefield 6. That’s resonating with fans who are looking for a return to form for the series that strayed too far, in their eyes, with Battlefield 2042.
The last entry into the Battlefield series made a number of changes to the franchise’s underlying formula, like abandoning its player class system for selectable characters who each had unique, specific abilities. It also had an infamously rough launch that turned away many longtime fans. In a lot of ways, Battlefield 6 is a return to the old way of doing things, and players are responding well so far.
In short, at this stage, EA and Battlefield Studios appear to be saying and doing all the right things to get Battlefield back on track. The recently concluded Battlefield 6 open beta reportedly had a player base of 20 million people, and apart from some negative feedback around Rush mode and map sizes, the sentiment was largely positive.
But even if Battlefield 6 launches to solid reviews, positive sentiment from fans, and big-time sales numbers, Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 may remain on top given the sheer size, scale, and momentum of the Call of Duty brand.
“For many gamers, Call of Duty is an annual ritual,” Elliott explained. “Tens of millions of players, many of them casual gamers, buy the newest CoD every year without hesitation. This ‘autopilot purchasing’ habit is decades deep, and breaking it requires more than one awesome Battlefield release/”
The masses love Call of Duty, even if they complain
Battlefield 6 may appeal to the “hardcore FPS crowd,” but the masses of casual players will show up for Call of Duty year in and year out, Elliot said that’s not expected to change.
“CoD’s muscle memory in the market is so strong that players will buy it even if they complain about it,” he said.
Also helping Call of Duty’s mainline annual releases is the perennial battle royale game Call of Duty: Warzone, which exists in the Call of Duty HQ launcher alongside each year’s new release. Elliott said this is a key point because, even if Warzone engagement is dipping, it still has a gigantic player base that will see Black Ops 7 ads every time they log in.
“Battlefield simply doesn’t have that scale of cross-promotion,” Elliott said.
For what it’s worth, Battlefield Studios is building its own Battlefield battle royale game, but it’s early days and there is no word on how EA plans to support, grow, and promote it over time. To be sure, we don’t even know if it’s a game, a game mode, or something else.
“CoD’s muscle memory in the market is so strong that players will buy it even if they complain about it” — Rhys Elliott of Alinea Analytics
To put things further into perspective, Elliott cited some data points that speak to the enormity of Call of Duty relative to Battlefield.
“The reality is that CoD’s sales floor is higher than Battlefield’s sales ceiling so far, for the year anyway,” he said. “Even in Battlefield’s highest highs (BF1 in 2016), Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare–a widely disliked entry–still outsold it by millions of copies. That’s brand inertia at work.”
Game Pass muddies the waters
Kade Barr, an equity research associate for Wedbush Securities, told GameSpot that Black Ops 7 being on Game Pass and Battlefield 6 only being available to purchase complicates any direct sales comparisons between the two. (For what it’s worth, Battlefield 6 will be on a subscription service via EA Play Pro, but it’s a much smaller service than Game Pass.) Barr believes the fact that Black Ops is on Game Pass and Battlefield is not could actually help Battlefield 6 perform better.
“Black Ops 7 is bound to have more unique players within its first year of launch, but sales of each game will likely be close should each launch go smoothly,” Barr said. “There is obvious overlap in the player bases, but Call of Duty’s inclusion in Game Pass could actually result in a net benefit to Battlefield. With a large portion of Call of Duty players not having to pay $70 for the game, it leaves room to purchase other games like Battlefield.”
In total, Barr said Wedbush is modeling Battlefield 6 to become the second- or third-best-selling Battlefield game of all time, trailing Battlefield 1 and Battlefield 3. Barr believes Battlefield Studios has to really “nail it” with the planned battle royale mode, capitalize on the user-generated content that will come from its Portal mode, and deliver post-launch content successfully to make a dent in Call of Duty’s massive share of the premium FPS market.
“All in all, I think Battlefield’s ultimate success hinges on a stable launch,” Barr said. “The hype is there, but any inkling of a buggy launch will turn people away. I do think this game’s launch needs to be exceptionally smooth given a lack of trust following Battlefield 2042. Any sort of large-scale issues will likely result in a meaningful decline in sales.”
Historical data
In 2021, the last time new Call of Duty and Battlefield games were released in the same year, Call of Duty: Vanguard was the No. 1 best-selling game overall in the US, followed by 2020’s entry, Black Ops Cold War, at No. 2. Battlefield 2042, meanwhile, ranked No. 5 overall in 2021 for US sales, meaning it was outsold not just by its main competitor that year, but also by 2020’s Call of Duty game (along with Madden NFL 22 and Pokemon Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl). EA stated that Battlefield 2042 missed the mark critically and commercially, while Activision said Vanguard, too, failed to sell up to expectations.
Meanwhile, 2018’s Battlefield V ranked No. 16 in the US, whereas Black Ops 4 that year landed at No. 2. For 2016, Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare was No. 1 for the year in the US, with Battlefield 1 coming in second. Battlefield 6 has been called a spiritual successor to Battlefield 3 and 4, two fondly remembered games. When those games came out in 2011 and 2013, Call of Duty’s latest releases were No. 1, with Battlefield 3 and Battlefield 4 ranking No. 4 for each year. A Battlefield game has never ranked higher than No. 2 on the US sales charts for a given year.
Come year’s end, many will be watching with keen eyes how high Battlefield 6 can go on the charts, even if that won’t tell a complete story.
But didn’t someone say Battlefield 6 will “boot stomp” Black Ops 7?
Former Xbox executive Mike Ybarra, who now heads up the sports betting company Prize Picks, published a social media post recently in which he said, “Battlefield will boot stomp CoD this year.” He said sentiment around Call of Duty has been trending down in recent years as Activision leans into the wacky licensed skins and other features fans don’t universally enjoy.
A lot of commentary you may read online about Call of Duty is negative, but that also raises the question of how much stock one should place in online conversations when algorithms today incentivize stirring things up to drive engagement, and, in the case of X, direct payments go to people who post the most extreme takes. Despite the negative rhetoric, the numbers show that Call of Duty is still a juggernaut. And while online comments may not always lead to real changes, sometimes that can happen. After all, Activision just recently announced that it was cancelling the Carry Forward program for Black Ops 7, which means the oft-criticized wacky and outlandish Call of Duty skins from Black Ops 6 may not appear in Black Ops 7. Activision also said it’s listening to fans who want Call of Duty to feel more grounded, and acknowledged their concerns that Call of Duty has “drifted” from its core.
In any event, Elliott had some words for Ybarra: “Chill out, son.”
To be fair, Ybarra did not say Battlefield 6 would outsell Black Ops 7. As a 19-year Microsoft veteran who worked on development and publishing initiatives at Xbox, he is no doubt aware in some capacity of the sales volume of Call of Duty relative to Battlefield. His second point was that Battlefield 6 coming to market with fan-focused design choices could end up helping Activision make a better product with Call of Duty, due in part to increased competition in the marketplace, and that’s something Call of Duty fans would surely like to see.
For Activision’s part, Black Ops 7 associate creative director Miles Leslie was recently asked to comment on Battlefield 6’s successful beta. He said he’s played it and found it to be fun, but he is focused on his own product.
“We’re fans of the FPS genre,” he said. “We’re fans of lots of games. Let’s all have fun.”
