Analysis: How did Trump, Abbott screw up Texas redistricting so badly? | Opinion

Gov. Greg Abbott and other Texas Republican leaders learned an important, and perhaps costly, lesson Tuesday when a federal court stopped the state from using a new map of congressional districts for next year’s elections: If you’re going to a partisan knife fight, you’d better bring your most useful blade.

And at the risk of mixing metaphors, the Trump Justice Department isn’t exactly the sharpest tool in the shed.

The court ruled Tuesday that Texas cannot use the map legislators approved in a special session for next year’s midterm elections. The state must stick with current districts, which were enacted in 2021. Republicans, prodded by President Donald Trump, sought to make five more of the state’s 38 U.S. House districts more likely to elect a Republican. The party fears that without them, it will have difficulty holding control of Congress for the final two years of Trump’s term.

So, the politics were always clear. What’s telling is the rationale that the court laid out. A coalition of minority-rights groups argued, in suing the state over the map, that it deliberately targeted the voting strength of racial minorities, chiefly Black and Hispanic voters. Two of three federal judges empaneled to hear the case agreed.

Gov. Abbott’s unusual call for mid-decade redistricting

They noted that Abbott’s initial stated reason for calling lawmakers back to draw a new map — highly unusual in the middle of a decade — was a hand-slap from the Justice Department over districts that might violate a recent court ruling.

The law is complicated here but, essentially, a federal appeals court ruled in a different Texas case that states cannot be required to create “coalition districts.” Those are maps under which more than one racial or ethnic minority group, acting in concert, can determine a winner.

But the ruling didn’t say states couldn’t choose on their own to create such districts. Think of the difference between eating your broccoli because Mom said so or having it because you like it or think it’s good for you.

Texas devoured the broccoli. Tuesday’s ruling found, quite logically, that the state’s consideration of race probably went overboard.

The court’s 160-page ruling is a breathtaking slap at Trump’s Justice Department. It’s hard to determine what the department wanted, the judges said, because its letter to Texas officials “contains so many factual, legal, and typographical errors.” Lawyers working for Attorney General Ken Paxton described the DOJ guidance as “ ‘legally unsound, baseless, erroneous, ham-fisted and a mess.’ ”

Folks, when Paxton thinks you’re sloppy, it’s time to reconsider your life’s work.

Supreme Court allows redistricting for partisan gain

At the same time, to explain the redraw, Republicans often pointed to the Supreme Court’s decision that federal courts cannot step in when states change maps expressly for partisan intent. So, two paths were available to justify what Trump was asking for. Texas and the Justice Department picked the wrong one.

Politically, it could go down as a backfire worthy of a 1974 El Camino.

California and other Democratic-dominated states used Texas’ step as a reason to do their own — on a partisan basis. Those will probably stand, while Abbott’s new map is, at best, on life support.

Texas will appeal quickly, and the case probably goes directly to the Supreme Court. The justices could delay the primaries currently set for March and ultimately allow the new map. If they don’t, it just got considerably harder for Republicans to keep the House majority — the exact opposite of what Trump was asking for.

If the court does act and primaries must be delayed, there could be all sorts of unforeseen political consequences. The last time it happened, in 2012, primaries were just after Memorial Day, with runoffs at the end of July. That’s a recipe for low voter turnout, which, along with more time to campaign, helped an upstart conservative beat the sitting lieutenant governor and, against great odds, ultimately win a U.S. Senate seat.

That candidate? You know him as Sen. Ted Cruz.

Expect a big fight over the Voting Rights Act

Longer-term, there could be an epic fight over the rules for redistricting. Right now, the playing field is a mess. States can be dinged for not considering race enough, lest too few Black and Hispanic candidates win elections. But they can’t take race into account too much, or they get reprimanded like Texas did Tuesday.

If Democratic states can draw maps that eliminate Republican districts but red states can’t act in kind, the GOP won’t stand for that very long. Redistricting is a never-ending arms race. Eventually, Republicans could seek to finally end the Voting Rights Act and let the constitutional chips fall where they may.

That’s a long way down the road, though. Today, Texas Republicans should consider why their leaders bungled this so badly — particularly when Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton love to brag about how easy it is for them to get Trump on the phone.

This story was originally published November 18, 2025 at 2:36 PM.