Former President Donald Trump ended his blitz of rallies leading up to the November 8 midterm elections in Dayton, Ohio, to gather support for his endorsed Senate candidate J.D. Vance.
Several of Trump’s endorsements from across the state were in attendance at the Monday rally, which included a special appearance from Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who also attended the former president’s rally last week in Sioux City, Iowa. The message was the same across all of Monday night’s speakers: Tuesday’s election will see a “giant red wave” thanks to Trump’s supporters.
Dayton, which was the last of four stops for the former president leading up to the midterm election, offered an interesting scene for Trump’s “MAGA-style message,” according to Chris Devine, a political science professor at the University of Dayton (UD). Devine told Newsweek that it was important for the former president to look like a “winner” heading into such a tight midterm race, which made Vance’s home state a good final stop.
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“By coming to Ohio on the eve of the midterm elections, Donald Trump is trying to send the message that he is a winner,” Devine said. “Why? Because JD Vance is probably going to win on Tuesday, and everyone knows he needed Trump’s help to get there.
“Trump wants to focus the public’s attention on races that make him and his message look popular,” Devine added. “He wouldn’t want to rally for someone tonight who might lose tomorrow.”
Fellow UD lecturer Daniel Birdsong echoed that choosing Ohio as his final stop was “no accident” by Trump, and agreed that supporting Vance on the eve of the midterm elections was the “easy choice.”
“The other Senate races with Trump-endorsed candidates are too close to call and Trump, like all politicians, is risk averse,” Birdsong told Newsweek. “Why go to Georgia where his candidate might lose? Coming to Ohio is the easy choice.”
Vance, who was born in Middletown, Ohio, about 25 miles south of Monday night’s rally, currently leads Democratic opponent Tim Ryan by 6.1 points, according to data from FiveThirtyEight. Ohio’s election has been one of the most closely watched across the country as Democrats hope to gain control of the Senate, but Vance started to break away from a tightly-contested race after his last debate against Ryan in mid-October.
Ohio has been a friendly place for Trump in recent elections as well, with the former president winning by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. The county surrounding the city of Dayton has been much more competitive, Devine pointed out, which could have played a role in the former president’s decision to hold his final rally in the region.
“Montgomery County – which includes the city of Dayton and the airport where Trump’s rally is being held – is a swing county,” Devine said. “So if you’re looking for a media market where there are lots of votes potentially up for grabs in Ohio, Dayton, is the place to go.”
According to the Montgomery County Board of Elections, Trump practically tied Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016, winning 47.97 percent to 47.24 percent, respectively. The former president lost the greater Dayton area to President Joe Biden by only around 3 points in 2020.
“Trump and other Republicans think Dayton is fertile ground for a populist, MAGA-style message aimed at white, working-class voters who may have supported Democrats in past elections,” Devine added.
Trump’s speech on Monday largely supported Devine’s theory, as the former president repeatedly attacked the Biden administration on issues like inflation, energy security and crime. According to a Marist Poll published on October 24, 46 percent of Ohio adults say inflation is their top concern heading into Tuesday, followed by preserving democracy, abortion, health care, crime and immigration.
“Every freedom-loving American needs to understand the time to stand up to this growing left-wing tyranny is right now,” Trump said during his speech Monday. “If you want to save your rights and liberties, you have to start by dealing a humiliating rebuke to the radical left.”
Birdsong added that, in contrast to recent polling, Trump’s last push for Vance could have been crucial for him to win the state on Tuesday—and for the GOP’s chance to flip control of the Senate.
“Maybe the campaign is closer than we think and the Vance campaign needs a turnout push in Montgomery County to make up for votes elsewhere,” Birdsong said.
